Newbie 2029 MAFIA PT

[herrcombs]

See you after the game!

[herrcombs]

I thought noraa revoted you to make it seem like a hammer to get you to confess. For whatever reason I thought she was on your wagon.

[herrcombs]

Lonelllyyy, I'm mr lonelllyyyy...

[The Bulge]

Night One

. Norfolk Boy1 may no longer post here.

[herrcombs]

It's ok Mr Bulge. At least I have you for company.

[The Bulge]

You can feel free to use this space to think out loud for the rest of the game, it may be an interesting read for the others in post-game and even possibly helpful to newer players. You may also submit your actions here, in bold to make it official.

[herrcombs]

Thanks for clarifying. I need to do some analysis of the game to figure out my actions, but I'll let you know before Monday evening.

[herrcombs]

Welcome to Inside The Head Of Scum!Herrcombs, where we spell out the immediately obvious to some, make glaringly deficient/suboptimal logical arguments to others, and make liberal use of the word we do describe our multiple thought processes.

Here is what we know so far (other than the fact that we are in a position some might describe as super screwed):

1. No reason to doubt the tracker claim. Osuka is tracker which means that there is a jailkeeper in the setup. This is the #1 reason we did not back off our partner towards the end of yesterDay, because it seemed pretty likely that one of the two of us were going to die and it was more important at that point to hang onto roleblocker.
2. We need to predict what the jailkeeper is likely to do in this situation:
a. Jailkeeper's only indisputable knowledge is their own role, and the goon!norfolk flip. From the JK's perspective, there should be a nonzero amount of paranoia that osuka is a fakeclaim (columns B and C). It should be probable that osuka is real, but not impossible (a scum fakeclaim of tracker realistically would only happen in columns B and C, with a 1/3 success rate of no CC). Therefore, in those 2/3 cases, the best move would be to jail osuka to prevent the nightkill. If there is no nightkill, it leaves open the possibility that osuka is that last mafia, or that he was saved by doc or jailkeeper.
b. From this perspective, we have some options:
i. Roleblock osuka (not worth the risk that he gets a track off), and shoot at a POE target trying to hit the jailkeeper (guesser, noraa, RC, or wiz; as plus/notsci claimed VT and osuka claimed tracker). Then if we get a successful kill on the jailkeeper, we can target osuka uncontested. Chances of success: p_N1 = <0.25, taking into account the chance that plus/notsci fakeclaimed VT; slightly better chances N2 even though it is difficult to predict our chances of living D2. We have two nights to try to hit JK this way and then we get launched D4 if we miss and tracker gets conftown going into final 3. Our only play at that point is to fakeclaim JK in final 3 and go head to head with the real JK. I think it's super risky to make it to this point -- once JK jails osuka and the NK goes through anyway, that makes it almost certain that osuka is not the last mafia (what roleblocker, column A, in their right mind would fake tracker? They'd get immediately CCed by tracker and tracker-for-roleblocker is not a good trade for mafia). Therefore JK starts jailing other targets with the intention of finding the last scum once the pattern of NKs is clear that it's JK hunting.

Spoiler: Terrible gameplan below lol

ii. We roleblock osuka and then MAKE NO KILL (trolololo). Assuming JK jails osuka, this almost guarantees a mislaunch on osuka and we no longer need to worry about his conftown status in lylo. Then our night gameplan from here is just roleblock + shoot the most likely JK targets. There's also a nonzero chance in this instance that JK outs D2, which makes our lives even easier. I feel like this plan is a strategic gamble because not NKing is generally pretty bad for mafia from what I understand. The upside is if osuka is launched. Then the game goes:
D3 (6 alive)
D4 (4 alive MYLO - mislaunch and lose)
D5 (3 alive LYLO, assuming no launch on D4)
This gives us 3 more chances to NK the JK, but also ups the chances that JK gets a jail on us. Which -- we could play the ultra long game of WIFOM such that we NEVER perform a nightkill until jailer outs, then just swiftly kill them the next night.

ii. Or, maybe the better move is to shoot tracker and roleblock elsewhere with a chance to prevent osuka's save.
1. If JK targets osuka and we hit our RB on JK, osuka dies and town is down a tracker. JK doesn't gain any extra knowledge other than they were RBed. We gain possible knowledge of who JK is (we say possible because we don't know for certain whether JK targets osuka).
2. If JK targets osuka and we miss our RB on JK, osuka lives and JK/town is left wondering if osuka was the target or the shooter. Osuka does not get a track result. Seems like there is enough sus on osuka that he might get launched here. WIFOM
3. If JK targets off osuka and off us, osuka dies and town is down a tracker. JK knows either they were RBed, or that their target was neither mafia nor the target, or both.
4. If JK targets us, and we hit our RB on JK, osuka dies and town is down a tracker. JK knows either they were RBed, or that their target was neither mafia nor the target, or both.
5. If JK targets us, and we miss our RB on JK, then osuka lives and gets a track:
a. If osuka tracks us, he gets no result and learns either we were jailed or that we are not mafia, or both. There's still the chance that somebody else besides us is the RB who is following this plan.
b. If osuka tracks JK, he learns that JK targets us. He figures either we are mafia RB who got jailed, or that we are JK's target who is not mafia. Either way, it confirms the JK to tracker which is really bad for us.

[herrcombs]

If we go with option ii, we need to evaluate if a osuka/norfolk team makes sense because there would be a good chance there's no nightkill.

Yikes. Norfolk's 204 seems really unlikely if his partner is either roleblocker or rolecop -- that's too much pressure to put on your partner to put them in an unenviable position to have to fakeclaim.

Osuka lightly prods norfolk but doesn't ever really push on him. Norfolk is osuka's 3rd choice of the wagons yesterday. This could contribute to a case for osuka scum.

There is a chance that we could have two masons, one of which fake claimed tracker. Shooting osuka would out him as mason. That would be hilarious. But then mafia would know the claim is fake and shoot them anyway. That's a risk maybe they'd take between column A and column C (which masons wouldn't know at the time). If they are forced to claim and they fakeclaim in column A, then there is the chance that mafia doesn't target the claim because they would get jailkept anyway.

[herrcombs]

I don't have time to summarize all my thoughts, but there's a chance that noraa is the jailkeeper, but she's so unpredictable that she would be the most likely not to target osuka with her night action. So my kill would go through anyway (unless she lucks out and jails me).

I think Wiz is a more suitable candidate to RB. If he jails osuka, then osuka dies anyway. If he doesn't target osuka, there's a low chance he would jail me because I wasn't in his preferred list in post 610 even before it was revealed that I was on the Norfolk wagon. If Osuka dies tomorrow, I think I RB and kill wiz night 2.

Night actions to follow:

[herrcombs]

Roleblock: wizardastronaut

Shoot: Osuka

[herrcombs]

If osuka is mason, I think it's highly likely that plusjoyed is his mason buddy.

[The Bulge]

Roleblock: wizardastronaut

Shoot: Osuka

Actions received.

[The Bulge]

Day Two

because I forgot to post here on daystart...

[The Bulge]

Night Two

[herrcombs]

Holy shit I got home from work late, made dinner, read up and two more people are dead LOL.

Tracker and VT.

[herrcombs]

Random Canadian says:

Combs was fourth on the wagon. Had been slightly SR norfolk earlier in the day such as 444. Do you think scum would put their partner in the red category day 1? I would think probably not. Also, had a chance at a NS elim but didn't take it. It wouldn't have looked good for him to flip his views at the end but still more unlikely.

Yeah putting my partner in red category day 1 was bad play lol. I did have a chance for a NS elim but I was buddying him way too hard D1. Would seem like a 180 reversal and I was already looking sus at the end of D1.

I literally didn't realize plus would be turbolaunched (heh I made a pun) if osuka died in the night. I guess that kind of worked out? But I am not sure it really achieved much for me.

notscience says:

Combs is town.

I really wish this was true, and we could have been town together this game. I've got mad respect for ya notsci.

[herrcombs]

Sort of feel like noraa might be jailkeeper, but I also want her alive tomorrow for a possible elim. She's making too big a deal out of the hammer on Norfolk if he was JK. If she was JK, of course she would know the claim is a fake.

ArbitraryCanuck seems like he's never gonna get limmed. Played well my dude, I hope you die in honor (but first, I hope I'm not jailed and the shot actually goes through).

Here's hoping for some magic

Roleblock: Noraa

Shoot: RandomCanadian

[The Bulge]

Sort of feel like noraa might be jailkeeper, but I also want her alive tomorrow for a possible elim. She's making too big a deal out of the hammer on Norfolk if he was JK. If she was JK, of course she would know the claim is a fake.

ArbitraryCanuck seems like he's never gonna get limmed. Played well my dude, I hope you die in honor (but first, I hope I'm not jailed and the shot actually goes through).

Here's hoping for some magic

Roleblock: Noraa

Shoot: RandomCanadian

Actions received.

[herrcombs]

I feel like I'm losing some energy in the game. Also seems really unlikely I'll survive the final 3.

I'm kind of hoping I don't hit the jailkeeper tonight, then I'll just fakeclaim JK at the start of next day and cross my fingers. Need to come up with a credible list of saves which shouldn't be too hard since the osuka kill went through N1. I would just say I was roleblocked and I have no idea whether I was roleblocked the following nights or not.

Don't know why mafia wouldn't have just killed me in the night. Come to think of it, don't know why I didn't just kill wiz N2. Hopefully the RC kill looks weird enough that it shows roleblocker is playing suboptimally.

I'm pretty confident JK is between wiz and noraa, just don't know precisely which of the two and I'm really not sure which one would be the optimal kill. Noraa seems like she would join notsci on my elim in final 3 without too much second guessing. Notsci/wiz/me or even noraa/wiz/me seems like a bit more of a chaotic final 3. Guess it depends on how the rest of today plays out. Thankfully I haven't been all that super townie and I'm sort of banking on that question of "why is he still alive" would also apply to notsci.

[herrcombs]

Maybe I should have killed who I was fairly confident was JK (wiz) instead of RC. For whatever reason, I was under the impression that wiz would have been easier to elim than RC. Shrug

[The Bulge]

Game Over