Open 798 | PYPX/Y+I/M | Mafia PT (over)

[Smoke and Mirrors]

No Infinity definitely looks like scum now and he’s probably got NM reconsidering and maybe BB too? He is literally the only one pushing me. I think we can probably count on NM’s vote now. And he’s willing to vote a player he trs? Does he not realize this is Elo?

So Infinity is hardpushing a slot that can’t possibly be redirector.
Is willing to vote out a player he claims to tr.
Is pushing a confirmed slot’.

How do we seriously not get him executed after all of this? He’s being seriously scummier than fuck in his play today. I think this could be a slam dunk. We can get NM and Davez to vote him and maybe BB as well?

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Infinity totally looks like flailing scum here. I don’t even have to try.

[Hoopla]

sorry SS. held out as long as i could but felt i couldn't really justify an infinity vote. i'm fearful that if i obvscum now and push for the win, it could unravel everything, so i'm going to push harder in 5p ELo and 3p ELo where i will actually have time to cook up some persuasive rhetoric. damn my relentless work schedule cropping up at the worst time!

[Something_Smart]

Hm dave hammering is kinda bad for us. I guess I should have self-hammered, I didn't expect him to do it that quickly :/

I think don't get fancy, keep Infinity alive and have Hoopla try to pocket him. Kill BB tonight maybe? He'll be a lot harder to execute now.

[Nancy Drew 39]

I’m sorry for not checking in. I think the smart play is killing Dave tbh.

We’re never getting him executed now but Pooky said he had a plan why Infinty can still make sense as scum.

I don’t see any reason not to kill Davez now. We aren’t misexecuting him and he is the only one who could possibly catch me.

I will jk Hoopla.

If I don’t jk Hoopla it will look extremely suspicious.

[Nancy Drew 39]

Dave NK also doesn’t look terrible for me because I never pushed him and he was probably never voting me.

I think Infinity pushing NM looks really gross.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

But Hoopla needs to look unaligned with us, so we will be hard pushing Infinty and you should probably redirect it to either NM or BB, I guess.

Anyway, Dave is never getting mis executed now and he is the only one who can still catch me, so if we die than I strongly suggest you probably no kill after that because Davez NK doesn’t point to anyone.

NM probably gets misexected after us. So that then that leaves you, BB, Infinity and you’re their top town. Since it really doesn’t make a lot of sense for us to not hard fight Infinity. I think the correct play is for us to push him because I don’t want any associatives between us and you.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

I think either of us can kill Davez, it really doesn’t matter which one. He’s probably clear now anyway, so no reason to even keep him around.

So either you kill Davez and we jk you or we kill Davez and fakeclaim we jk’d you. It really makes no difference.

[Hoopla]

i think it's almost certain you are eliminated tomorrow with whoever we kill tonight, so the game is now about creating the optimal endgame situation for me. thing is, i can't really take infinity to a 3p endgame with me, as why would a scum N_M or scum dave take me/infinity to endgame? so, infinity needs to be NK'ed at one point since he's essentially confirmed town.

i know SS said don't get fancy, but i'd actually like to no-kill tonight, as i want one more day to "solve the game" with infinity in a 6p ELo now that he's basically confirmed town. this will allow us to create a narrative of it being probably between dave/N_M for the last scum with you. and i want this message hammered home to the town before we NK infinity.

dave isn't as confirmed town as you think. he hammered after waiting for an infinity mis-vote all day. he is still a viable suspect in the eyes of BB/N_M/infinity in my opinion. and they're the only eyes that matter.

[Hoopla]

to clarify, the no-kill gives one last layer of deception. i don't think it will save you, but it creates a viable reason to have kept infinity (and me) alive tonight instead.

now that SS has flipped, i think you're dreaming if you think infinity ever comes under any suspicion for the rest of the game, regardless of however gross his N_M push may have been.

we also don't know how the others (N_M, dave, BB) will react to a SS flip, so one more day phase of talking, before forcing town to no-elim in a 4p ELo will allow me an opportunity to manipulate a 3p endgame with greater clarity once i see which way people are leaning tomorrow. by doing something drastic (like killing dave right now), we close a lot of doors prematurely, when someone could viably still see dave as scum, or dave could zero in on N_M (thus making it beneficial to bring dave to a 3p endgame with N_M).

[Nancy Drew 39]

Pooky explained to me how. And it actually makes a lot of sense. If we just lay down and die. that would look super suspicious. We need it to look like we will lose if we die.

We are not confirmed scum if Pooky can spin it and as you’ve noticed he is a master at that. And sure it’s unlikely but not impossible but us not fighting will definitely make people suspicious, no?

[Hoopla]

yeah, of course don't just lay down and die. fight it out and create as much confusion as possible, but i'm telling you now that SS has flipped, there's no way you're not eliminated tomorrow. and there's no way anyone mis-votes on infinity.

[Hoopla]

in terms of fighting it out, no-killing is actually the move that gives you an opportunity to infuse some more doubt in the game. you will literally have no social cache to work with if we kill tonight.

and no-kill is better as i get more information about who is leaning where before i lock in my desired endgame.

[Hoopla]

i like a no-kill + you JK'ing N_M. looks like wifom-y distancing once you're eliminated tomorrow.

[Nancy Drew 39]

I told you Pooky has a plan and I’m signing our death warrant to jk NM. No one will buy it. It will look exactly like I’m trying to frame him now. It makes the most sense for us to jk you, since we’re supposedly still trying not to die as opposed to setting up blatantly fake associatives. If you seriously think us jking NM doesn’t look exactly like scum’s attempt to set up NM. I have some swamp land to sell you.

We’re still trying to look as townie af, which means we’re still trying to play for towncred which obviously mean to jk the consensus tr that makes sense from our pov. which would be you. No one in their right mind would think we’re jking NM for any other reason than to frame him, so us jking him will make him IC and I very much doubt that’s your intention.

[Nancy Drew 39]

@Hoopla, I apologize. That came out much harsher than I intended.

I just think it’s not a good idea because

A) unless he actually neighbourizes it can’t be confirmed anyway.
B) under no circumstances would town!us logically think he’s the NK

So, we claim NM jk, we are basically claiming scum or really unbelievably stupid wrt the gamestate and I don’t think anyone is going to buy the latter.

So, claiming to jk NM is basically close to the same level of being caught red handed making a kill, so it would mean we accept that we’re caught scum and trying to save NM but I think he’s going down after us anyway, so what happens after that once everyone realizes it was a wifom gambit to misexecute NM? Wouldn’t it make way more sense for us to jk the slot you need misexecuting later on, who isn’t as easily misexecutable?

Then why wouldn’t we NK, risk getting caught by Dave and make it look like possible scum theatre?

Iow, I don’t see why we need to go out of our way to make NM look bad but someone harder to get misexecuted after him.

And if Pooky can shade Infinity enough, then he could get misexecuted after NM green flip and Infinity green flip would probably confitown you, right?

[Nancy Drew 39]

Actually, here’s what I think we should do, Kill Infinity and if Dave catches us, try to possibly make it look like SvS with Davez maybe?

Like he was maybe in on it or something?

Infinity kill looks really great for you because if scum!us is acting in the best interests of our partner than Infinity kill absolutely spews you as not a partner.

So I think we straight up don’t even try to survive and Infinity kill looks terrible for pretty much everyone but you. Yes, I think that is the best plan.

You will definitely win if we do this, I think.

So my plan is to straight up open wolf tomorrow and get ourselves instakilled. It makes no sense for us as caught scum to not kill confitown and then that would leave NM who’s almost certainly following next, then you can just do a final NK, probably Davez and win by getting parity with BB and that’s the surest and easiest way to win here because we take all the heat for killing Infinity.

Because you winning by making the final NK is more optimal than being in a F3 right? so no good reason whatsoever to not kill confitown and I think I can spin it as fake looking scum theatre with Davez if he catches us.

[Hoopla]

I told you Pooky has a plan and I’m signing our death warrant to jk NM. No one will buy it. It will look exactly like I’m trying to frame him now. It makes the most sense for us to jk you, since we’re supposedly still trying not to die as opposed to setting up blatantly fake associatives. If you seriously think us jking NM doesn’t look exactly like scum’s attempt to set up NM. I have some swamp land to sell you.

We’re still trying to look as townie af, which means we’re still trying to play for towncred which obviously mean to jk the consensus tr that makes sense from our pov. which would be you. No one in their right mind would think we’re jking NM for any other reason than to frame him, so us jking him will make him IC and I very much doubt that’s your intention.

as an admirer of pooky's power of persuasion, i can understand why you want to give him a chance to show his wares once more, but i think you're delusional if you think you're not getting eliminated tomorrow.

infinity is all over you (and is now near-enough conf-town), BB suspects you, and NM will sheep the strongest players (infinity/me/mena) who will all go in your direction. dave is a wildcard who often comes up with random views that he gets stubborn with, but hoping dave blunders with a mis-vote tomorrow seems like wishful thinking to me. i'd rather put all my eggs in one basket of winning the game in 4p or 3p ELo, and use the next phases to cultivate the optimal endgame.

this is why a no-kill makes sense, as it's one more phase of talking/gauging the town's views before culling the next two slots. i want that extra info to know who to take to endgame. no-killing doesn't change the equation of anything. it doesn't give the town an extra mis-elim. it just stalls for one phase.

and if there's any universe where you survive, it's actually this one - where the town wifom's themself into thinking maybe you actually blocked a kill. so, if you have any ambition of survival, this is the play.

[Hoopla]

Actually, here’s what I think we should do, Kill Infinity and if Dave catches us, try to possibly make it look like SvS with Davez maybe?

Like he was maybe in on it or something?

Infinity kill looks really great for you because if scum!us is acting in the best interests of our partner than Infinity kill absolutely spews you as not a partner.

So I think we straight up don’t even try to survive and Infinity kill looks terrible for pretty much everyone but you. Yes, I think that is the best plan.

philosophically, i don't agree with open-wolfing outside of very rare situations. you should still try and survive. but i'm glad you now see what i'm seeing: that your position is near enough to a lost cause.

this is why i distanced from SS/you early on D4. it was an insurance policy in case we didn't win in a 7p ELo. we missed our opportunity of winning the game by pushing through a peta mis-elim when it was available to us. burning the entirety of your credibility to push through mena was a huge risk as it intrinsically tied yourself to SS. we still even had a chance to win it yesterday by being on the right side of the SS/infinity 50/50, but got unlucky there too.

now that SS has flipped, the gamestate will be a lot more transparent for the town.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

whats up am i jking NM

[Hoopla]

a complication of this endgame:

because we don't have the informed modifier, if you're eliminated tomorrow, it means N_M by virtue of neighbourising someone becomes confirmed town if i kill on N6 (as he can't kill and neighbourise in the same night if he were scum). as such, your death tomorrow boxes me into requiring to NK N_M on N6 or no-killing once again (to prevent him from being confirmed-town).

if we go the no-kill route, i will have to enter a 4p ELo with N_M confirmed (and an outside chance of dave getting a guilty on me) OR no-kill again N6 and take a 5p ELo which gives the town an extra mis-elim chance. this scenario keeps N_M from being unconfirmed and in infinity's eyes he's the top scumbuddy for a SS/S&M scumteam, so this is likely a free elim (which balances out for not NK'ing or confirming N_M in the other branches). a N_M mis-elim D7 leads to a N7 NK choice between dave/BB/infinity. lots of good tension there to choose between, as dave/BB have been at odds with each other. but then i also have the option of a very strong ally in infinity who i could take to a 3p ELo.

whichever way we go, i will need a BB/dave/infinity mis-elim at one point to win the game. if infinity fucks up with a N_M mis-elim on D7, i think he'll trust me to go for dave next.

[Hoopla]

in exploring my intuition on why a no-kill tonight is good. i think it's because it fits a variety of purposes:

1) a slower endgame spread across more nights reduces the chances of dave getting a guilty on you or i, which would force a 50/50 with dave. this should be considered a scenaio to avoid, because in actuality, i think our odds are better when the PoE includes N_M & BB too.

2) there is an outside chance a no-kill reinforces your validity somewhat. probably not enough to survive, but it gives you a fighting chance. why not take it to see what happens?

3) if we do kill tonight, the logical kill choice is infinity. yet he is my biggest ally helping to rule me out as a realistic suspect, and is helping reinforce my PoE narratives. despite not being a mis-elim possibility, he has more value alive than dead in my opinion, as his voice will be very influential in guiding the town.

i once played a similar scumgame with greymarble (greyice & llamarble) in open 548, where a deep pocketing of that slot was my main reason for winning. my scumbuddies died early, and despite that slot never being a mis-elim possibility, i left them alive all game because they were so vocal in defending me. without that ally i wouldn't have even made it to ELo.

so, given there aren't any good nightkills other than infinity, it tilts me even more in the direction of no-killing.

[Hoopla]

if we go the no-kill route, i will have to enter a 4p ELo with N_M confirmed (and an outside chance of dave getting a guilty on me) OR no-kill again N6 and take a 5p ELo which gives the town an extra mis-elim chance. this scenario keeps N_M from being unconfirmed and in infinity's eyes he's the top scumbuddy for a SS/S&M scumteam, so this is likely a free elim (which balances out for not NK'ing or confirming N_M in the other branches). a N_M mis-elim D7 leads to a N7 NK choice between dave/BB/infinity. lots of good tension there to choose between, as dave/BB have been at odds with each other. but then i also have the option of a very strong ally in infinity who i could take to a 3p ELo.

whichever way we go, i will need a BB/dave/infinity mis-elim at one point to win the game. if infinity fucks up with a N_M mis-elim on D7, i think he'll trust me to go for dave next.

actually, this branch is a deadend. in a 5p D7 (after no-kill on B2B nights), town won't eliminate N_M as he can't kill if he's scum (due to informed), ergo there's no point to elim him first. we could elim two other people before having to test N_M. which means i'd need two of BB/dave/infinity eliminated (plus N_M in 3p ELo) if the game goes down the path of no-kill N5 --> S&M elim D6 --> no-kill N6. this is a losing branch.

so, i would need to kill N_M N6 to prevent him from being confirmed, leaving a me/infinity/dave/BB 4p ELo. this actually looks decent given there is tension between dave/BB and infinity has my back. N_M is infinity's top suspect, so it sucks having to NK him instead of using him as a mis-elim. but i don't see a situation where we get to a 3 or 4p ELo with N_M not confirmed and infinity still alive. so, i'm still relying on a dave or BB elim. and i think i'm most likely to get one of them while infinity is still alive.

the other option is killing infinity N6 and taking a confirmed N_M into a me/dave/BB/N_M endgame. that seems volatile and unpredictable in the same way the mena over peta branches were a lot more volatile. at least with infinity alive instead of N_M in 4p ELo, i have more control of the gamestate. neither will be in the PoE, so i may as well take infinity there over N_M.

[Hoopla]

to finally work my way around to answering this question:

whats up am i jking NM

if we're no-killing tonight, it means in all likelihood i end up killing N_M on N6, so who we JK is actually largely irrelevant or at least now becomes primarily a wifom decision.

as nancy was saying earlier, you can't really justify a N_M JK, but then again, if it's a wifom JK with its primary purpose to tie yourself to another slot, does it really matter if you can justify it? if it's not

just

a wifom kill, and you have ambition of survival tomorrow - then the only real viable target is BB. he's an unlikely NK but could easily be the NK'er.

perhaps this is a more viable JK to justify (if that's an important consideration), and it might make BB look a bit fishy once you flip scum. predicting where the town will land in the cycle of wifom is more an art than a science, but i suspect people may think it looks weird that you no-killed then claimed to JK BB after you've flipped scum.

[Hoopla]

a concern about JK'ing BB is that the implication is that he is scum doing the NK. this creates a 50/50 on the surface. in actuality it's more like a 90/10 between you & him,

but

it will carry the weight and energy of 1v1 type duels given it's ELo. if we end up debating for pages between you/BB and you get into a prolonged argument with him there, you may end up making him look more town once you flip scum.

this is largely why i avoid 50/50's as scum - especially big emotional back & forths. because if i'm ever flipped, you create a prob-townie from the perspective of nobody believing it's a S/S argument. getting into 50/50's with a townie just gives them an opportunity to obvtown - and you don't have control over that.

maybe a better JK is me, as i'm a top NK candidate, so it won't create a 50/50 between us and risk improving someone else's standing in the game.