Micro 789 - Alternating 9p - Mafia wins

[Raskolnikov]

VOTE: Not_Mafia

lurker scum lets lynch him before he posts

[Raskolnikov]

probably major minor is the last confirm

[Raskolnikov]

holy moly green you've been playing mafia over half your lifetime?

[Raskolnikov]

lol im just coming off a 3 month break and it already feels like its been an eternity
newbie queue got a new setup, themes are now all like lulbalance memegames full of alts and hydras
maybe half the peeps ive been in most games with either left, banned or or taking it easy

[Raskolnikov]

little did iconeum know that christopher, in a surprising twist, actually was 2 goons in a trenchcoat

[Raskolnikov]

i was bored and thought id look at everyone's profile and guess who didnt confirm yet

[Raskolnikov]

3 people have posted today :hmm:

[Raskolnikov]

eeeh site doesnt really change much I guess just my meta data is kind gone

I was like joining games with people I knew I could read semi decently and like using that as a super crutch to get free townfirms in my games lol

[Raskolnikov]

this is actually decent but its about me and getting involved would make the game even more about me which isnt ultimately that interesting because i dont have quite the frame of reference to judge how reasonable the things are

[Raskolnikov]

at this rate one more day and we can have the entrance rating game though

[Raskolnikov]

anxious vs bored
this is actually good though but neither you or green said something id think is scummy yet and digging deeper on reads on me isnt as promising as say reads on a 3rd (but there's not much from the rest of the field either quite yet tbh)

[Raskolnikov]

tbh the only other thing I can think of is not mafia could've said something substantive today but it is still super early

[Raskolnikov]

huh I thought you were calling me LAMIST not lovebird
logically that is maybe early to go on record for a read which isnt necessarily that justifiable but I got the impression she might've been doing it to get things rolling too

[Raskolnikov]

This is all fishy to me.

Prediction: one of GL, Lovebird, Raska is scum.

Don't think scum!love would be so eager to TR someone so early. It is weird and attracts too much attention.
But seriously this whole discussion seems irrelevant; why would checking profiles be AI? Why is being bored AI? Why is being anxious to start the game AI?

It's grasping but that's early d1 for you (and sometimes the rest of the game too ayoooo )
It was pretty much just us 3 around so that being the conversation that continued seems natural, there wasn't much else to talk about

I'm wondering what brings you to this prediction in general, but also if you don't think lovebird would've said what she did as scum. Do you just think it's weird/strange or can you speculate any scum motivation in the mix?
@Same to Iconman

[Raskolnikov]

As for lovebird. What she did was definitely pro-town in what it accomplished, but as a tell I think it's complicated. For a newer player I would absolutely townread that because new scum do avoid attention and also aren't even necessarily aware they'd get townread for being pro-town/lamist. OTOH giving lovebird that would be careless, she has some scum games already here with competent level of play and is from offsite before that (not to put paranoia on her either though which would be unfair). That said the thought process itself adds up and 37 is some nuance at least so even if it's "graspy" I don't think it's shallow and don't feel it's scummy.

[Raskolnikov]

ZZZX and not_mafia lose the entrance awards.

[Raskolnikov]

It's grasping but that's early d1 for you (and sometimes the rest of the game too ayoooo )
It was pretty much just us 3 around so that being the conversation that continued seems natural, there wasn't much else to talk about

I'm wondering what brings you to this prediction in general, but also if you don't think lovebird would've said what she did as scum. Do you just think it's weird/strange or can you speculate any scum motivation in the mix?
@Same to Iconman

I basically agree with this as a response to BuJaber, although I would add:

Prediction: one of GL, Lovebird, Raska is scum.

Don't think scum!love would be so eager to TR someone so early. It is weird and attracts too much attention.

Why is Lovebird in your scum pool if you don't think she would have acted that way as scum?

actually that's what I thought I asked in that, whoops

[Raskolnikov]

Mmm I try not to go too deep into townreads or leans in principle but it's pretty obvious here.

[Raskolnikov]

Christopher n_m and zzzx have been posting onsite and should really get involved here (major otoh looks like replace)
iconeum feels pretty mediocre but let's see how he responds about his thing, zzzx i kinda thought would say more but maybe he does today

[Raskolnikov]

okay this is getting ridiculous now lol

[Raskolnikov]

The prediction is based on WIFOM. That's usually how I narrow things down between a pool if there is nothing specific that pings me. (Such as this game). Since everyone is more or less a nullread I come up with a theory that makes sense to narrow down the field and split up the players into categories for further analysis.
In this game the theory is that 3 people all deciding to engage in a discussion -that imo is about something irrelevant or NAI- leads me to think one of them has to be doing it as scum to look like they're engaging with the town. Since one scum is doing this the other is likely to follow a different strategy so they will take a more passive approach. So 1 scum among {rask, GL, lovebird} and 1 scum among the rest.

The thing is this just doesn't really follow. I've been in games where both scum just happen to be quiet or flake out and people were pretty much just wasting their time. But given you have it as theory/prediction I think you're kind of aware and I get the impression you're hoping for something less null-reading on the field too so I guess it's understandable.

[Raskolnikov]

Why did my opening ping you however?

[Raskolnikov]

@Christopher what do you think of the love, me, and GL interaction

[Raskolnikov]

Not mafia pretend this is a turbo and you have to dayvig someone and post a paragraph why in the next 20 minutes or you lose

[Raskolnikov]

have you considered the possibility that you not being present could give you a different outlook because you didn't pick up the feeling or gamestate at the time

[Raskolnikov]

I won't say it's content, but I also don't think it's noise. This game is objectively very slow and this is a lot less pages than usual by this time frame.
I think you might be defensive too as it feels like you're taking it as a direct scumread or shade on you but I don't feel like that's how it is.

[Raskolnikov]

VOTE: ZZZX

I'm okay with this for now.

[Raskolnikov]

I should bring up I like to POE and this kind of gamestate is not so has not been good for that.
I suspect through how most people are that 1 scum is uninvolved because I usually have more scumreads by now. I don't think this prediction is like bujabers though because I feel like this is based on (hopefully not inaccurate) reads and not whatever his was based on (I'm still not sure).

[Raskolnikov]

Ehh, it's partially omgus I guess.

[Raskolnikov]

VOTE: not mafia
Fuck it, I want to wagon not mafia now.

[Raskolnikov]

Vote iconeum pls.

I forgot about this.

Why iconeum. His entrance was meh but I have reasons to think he's town now.

[Raskolnikov]

I agree that putting Lovebird in a scumpool, but in the same post mentioning that is has no reason to act like that if scum, is just weird.
Still like how he tries to steer conversation away, because that was leading us nowhere.

Out of curiosity, you didn't notice this when you made 43 right?

[Raskolnikov]

The way he also threw his vote around onto Not_Mafia just felt really town in my gut? I hate gut reads, it's hard to explain, but it was the lack of pretense that pinged me as town. There's no show to put on, nobody to impress with his vote switch, it's just what it is.

I dislike Lovebird's empty push on Iconeum, though. No reasons or anything? Feels opportunistic.

I'm having trouble squaring these.

[Raskolnikov]

N_M's been posting elsewhere onsite the whole time which to some extent just makes me want to say fuck him. Icon's statement there is also consistent with my skims and was mainly why I think icon might be paying attention, though from experience saying meta on people you've played isn't that difficult either when scum so eh.

But I'm also lacking a bit in scumreads atm.

[Raskolnikov]

Is it out of character for Not_Mafia, though? From what (little) I've seen of his posting, it seems normal enough for him, except for the fact he hasn't voted.

Not a not mafia expert but my impression was he was a little more likely to be engaged as town. Low sample size here tbh but not townread so.

[Raskolnikov]

GL if you had to lynch 3 people right now, who would they be?

[Raskolnikov]

@NM

Not mafia pretend this is a turbo and you have to dayvig someone and post a paragraph why in the next 20 minutes or you lose

Please

[Raskolnikov]

ZZZX defensive/aggressiveness (and disbelief in very early reads, and maybe even hating activity in general) is strictly standard unfortunately.

[Raskolnikov]

GL are you secret scum hiding in town by not making any mistakes?

[Raskolnikov]

Not chris.. I meant Major

So 1 scum in {ico, NM and maybe major}

Do you like townread chris or he just doesn't go either pool?

[Raskolnikov]

After iconman majorminor and bujaber answers I guess we can start looking to end the day... am serious about willing to lynch n_m (even if it's at least partially policy) if nothing is more appealing by then.

[Raskolnikov]

zzz massprod boys

[Raskolnikov]

@Iconman

I agree that putting Lovebird in a scumpool, but in the same post mentioning that is has no reason to act like that if scum, is just weird.
Still like how he tries to steer conversation away, because that was leading us nowhere.

Out of curiosity, you didn't notice this when you made 43 right?

[Raskolnikov]

bujaber is moonlogicing but low scum motivation in it atm imo, i'd lynch n_m or zzzx over him

[Raskolnikov]

christopher != bujaber probably ftr

[Raskolnikov]

The associations are actually a good point by bu if we lynch in the null/lurk slots, I don't think like GL/love is a thing either

[Raskolnikov]

zzz

[Raskolnikov]

Never in any universe lynching from actives in a day 1 like this

[Raskolnikov]

Would rather Chris.

Why chris SR

NM is town you fools.

Why

[Raskolnikov]

What's the meta

[Raskolnikov]

I got a different impression when I skimmed so

[Raskolnikov]

But if you've played actual games together

[Raskolnikov]

I wasn't serious when I RVS voted, but I was when I actually skimmed him and started townreading most other players. You can vote someone in rvs and then start actually scumreading them later even if it's the same vote.

[Raskolnikov]

NM is most likely town from meta

Can you go into detail

[Raskolnikov]

Oh also ZZZX, can you please explain why you're casting a useless vote?

I take this back. I understand now.

Also, this is strange to me, are you're saying ZZZX's view was justified because of things you read/happened after-the-fact?

[Raskolnikov]

You can, but at what point did you announce your RVS vote had turned serious?

What bugs me more than your sloppy wagon on NM (because scum shouldn't be so silly to try and lynch him knowing he's an easy mislynch player) is you going on about lack of content and participation yet you're not moving your vote around except in one case to OMGUS a player, but you keep pushing theone player YOU KNOW isn't going to fight back or give anyone any decent content. It makes me think you don't actually want content and you're just trying to look townie. I think someone else called you LAMIST for it.

You say this, but I'm not going to start wagoning people for no reason purely for the sake of discussion. If I'm not feeling something as scummy I'm not going to exaggerate or pressure for the sake of it anyways on bad faith.
You can complain about something if it's demotivating without it being a "call to action" or trying to take some stupid high ground or whatever ulterior motive. Maybe go back and take note of the time between each of the post timestamps as well.

I think I mentioned N_M a few times, even now still it's mostly a lean so I'm not going to make a big deal of it, and there there's not even so much a concrete point as rather waiting for something that never came. IIRC I seriously started considering the possibility when he popped in to say nothing when we were mentioning him since it implied he was reading along but just not at all interested.

[Raskolnikov]

In his town meta he is a troll. He looks pretty trolly here.

How do you think his meta is his scum meta here?

Trolling afaik is NAI for him.
As town I thought he seemed a bit more interested in the game than as scum and at least was usually throwing his vote around early.

[Raskolnikov]

Yes? Duh.

So I enter and all I see is the VCA. I deduced two things at the point I made the comment.

1. NM prob town, scum pushing his wagon.
2. Zzzx not engaged in town dialogue as not part of the main wagon and counter.

Then I read the game. Saw why he's voting you and staying out of the wagons.

Okay. I think this kind of logic is confbiasy, but whatever. If I scumread someone I'm not going to auto townread who pushes them or who they push unless they also have a good thought process to show for it.

[Raskolnikov]

To be honest, I was wondering if you were whiteknighting N_M because his ISO doesn't suggest anything that could possibly give a townread, but I guess the "my scumreads are pushing him!" is a thing people do sometimes.

[Raskolnikov]

That meta is way more shallow than I was expecting to see though.

[Raskolnikov]

Mmm, I'll have to reconsider this game tomorrow.

[Raskolnikov]

Rask, are you here? Posted somewhere else on site.

Since you're asking, yeah.

[Raskolnikov]

So I thought it over (lamist) and still think N_M is the way to go. TBH was gonna case cheekyteeky because I remember not liking her yesterday but I'm not feeling it, despite some things the coming in and seeing an N_M wagon and assuming scumpush isn't necessarily unreasonable or stance so unbelievable

ATM I think a play "not-to-lose" strategy is better than anything else because I don't have any "super town" this game like usual where I can get like 2 people to the point where I'd be comfortable to start hard pruning and essentially risking the game on them being right. This'll be controversial but I do feel 1 scum is probably in N_M or ZZZX this game and I also kinda don't want to lynch anyone with much of a townupside ATM (e.g. if they're town it'll be a significant loss).

I think there's decent setup this game to go in d2 atm and moreos than anything else I'd just rather not lynch in neg. ass. or trs

~ATM I think the following is safe
Bujaber != christopher
Lovebird != Greenliquid
Bujaber != iconeum (prob)

and my lynch preference atm something like the following
-
Lovebird
BuJaber
GreenLiquid

Iconeum
Christopher (this point is slightest smidgen above null)

MM/Cheeky

ZZZX
Not_Mafia
-

Normally wouldn't lay out top trs for nk+influence protection (unless they actually get in danger of being lynched) but atm even love or gl dying would be some level of semi-relief given (partially due to the circumstances I guess) not seeing any of the magic locktown posts this game

Will go into any given specific read on request (expect townreads to be controversial) but not every single read since it'd take forever and is kinda a pain in the ass, atm none of my townreads are really under any real threat and scumreads are kinda just boring weak leans so ehhh

TL;DR Still thinking hold course is best move here TBH

[Raskolnikov]

I think he saw what I'm seeing with Rask. A lot of points made about Rask using activity as AI also fits the hypocrisy in voting NM while complaining about lack of content.

Go into detail how this is hypocritical, BTW. I don't have to be active myself to metaread someone for activity if I think it's AI for them, although actually that's also wrong because N_M being around the game start but disinterested at that point isn't even the same as saying low activity -> scum. You can say, okay, rask is pushing what looks like easy targets for what looks like easy reasons and I feel like that's scum motivated, but you're implying there's something scummy in my reasoning or reads and not getting specifically down to what it is.

[Raskolnikov]

I don't get why you're acting like the game has to end now? We have more than a week left and Rask is speaking as if the day is about to end and we don't have time to scum hunt. This is even more ridiculous given that people have started moving their votes around a bit.

You're absolutely right, I want to see a flip soon.

[Raskolnikov]

I don't want to see a flip soon because it's protown, I want to see a flip soon because I'm kinda tired of this day 1. You keep doing this thing where you treat all my posts as if I only say objective statements and that whenever I say I feel a certain way you're taking it as a statement on how things "ought" to be and as if I'm making a massive judgment call on it.

[Raskolnikov]

Like when I said the game was boring that wasn't the same as writing a giant post about how everyone should really contribute and be pro-town and that I'd judge them very harshly if not. It's like you're skipping over any nuance.

[Raskolnikov]

I'm wondering if you're engaging with me in good faith or are just trying to make me look scummy.

[Raskolnikov]

I didn't say I had no decent town reads, I said I didn't have any super/locktowns which I'd usually have 1 or 2 of. Though thinking about it now it's also because usually it's when newish players who I'd have no expectations of having a scumgame obvtown and there's no one fitting that here.
Love is actually sorta strong atm and Bu/GL semi? ish atm.

[Raskolnikov]

Actually icon I forgot about this, don't think you answered

I agree that putting Lovebird in a scumpool, but in the same post mentioning that is has no reason to act like that if scum, is just weird.
Still like how he tries to steer conversation away, because that was leading us nowhere.

Out of curiosity, you didn't notice this when you made 43 right?

[Raskolnikov]

ZZZX I could easily see cheeky or maybe chris being scum if you're town given I do kind of have fuck all on you to actually get a read on tbh

[Raskolnikov]

Rask so do you actually townread GL/love or are you putting them there because you don't want to risk lynching a 'strong' townie?

Townread love significantly more, might towncase him
GL mostly just has good points/believable pushes (which is kinda unreliable as tell tbh) though I liked his thing on thing on insincerity vs style and maybe its silly but kinda his response to my ruscum poke

[Raskolnikov]

Christopher can I get something more out of you.

Whatever reads are the things you feel most strongly about, even if its townreads I'd be interested in hearing about.

I think your top TR was GL, also interested in what you make of iconeum atm.

[Raskolnikov]

I was feeling like lovebird's been thinking about me and talking about cheeky about rvs thing she townread since people disagreed, and then she brought up my name when I was reading because I posted elsewhere onsite. Maybe that's a stupid thing to townread, but my impression is it was from going through my profile because of her interest instead of just random chance.

[Raskolnikov]

I mean, I think that's a good neg. ass. set.

[Raskolnikov]

negative associations

[Raskolnikov]

Can you prod christopher?

[Raskolnikov]

and not_mafia

Both players posted after this so I'm gonna go ahead and call it all set.

[Raskolnikov]

Anyway To leave you with something here are my reads until page 10:
Strong -> Weak read
Town: BuJaber, GreenLiquid, Cheeky
Null?Neutral: LoveBird
Scum: Raskolnikov(

Am somewhat starting to reconsider this read honestly but need to ISO him and do a PbPA

)/Iconeum
NotMafia: Notmafia

What's your iconeum scumread btw?

zzzx not putting chris is actually a weak neg. assoc imo, scum wouldn't do something as conspicuous as omitting only their mate I think. nm read is kind of a dodge though.

[Raskolnikov]

And I am still so confident in my theory of 1 scum between Rask/GL/love. So I'm flip flopping between you.

I still don't like this particularly btw, if anything if you have a set like that you're better off pushing the people who have open associations, even if you're wrong you narrow things down for teamfinding way better. I think saying there's minimum 2 town in here is a good judgment via interactions, but that assertion that 1 scum has to be in here is still pretty baseless imo and amounts to "these are the people who happened to be online at the time". I would only make that kind of judgment by PoE if I townread other people but I don't see how you could in this game unless going from the opposite direction.

[Raskolnikov]

If I can start decently townreading any of the town that necessarily exists in {Chris, ZZZX, Cheeky, N_M} it'd be a big help.
If like maybe christopher or n_m(although I think he's more likely scum than not, it's still not as good a read as I'd like) replaced here with either newbies or people without spooky scumgame (cough cheeky) it'd kinda go a long way.

[Raskolnikov]

Actually, who's your strongest townread atm bujaber?

[Raskolnikov]

VOTE: Cheeky
feeling either with n_m or, if I'm wrong on n_m scum who knows n_m is town tbh

[Raskolnikov]

well this is awkward. I am town though, also probably going hiatus after my games finish though

[Raskolnikov]

I'll claim with intent btw, probably owe this game more than this I guess

[Raskolnikov]

yeah I guess everyone's townreading cheeky but I seriously expected her to start second guessing her theory by now or do some research
I'm aware being unengaged with the game is like a "classic" scumtell but I've literally only been this as town when my reads are unsatisfying, as scum you fake whatever ezpz and I'd probably be pushing someone actually relatively reasonable like GL (assuming their town) rather than that I think is objectively the best lynch in N_M today

[Raskolnikov]

at the end of the day I'd lynch N_M or ZZZX here if it's over myself, do think cheekys scummy but thought the vote might makes interesting too, but apparently im actually leading wagon in the most quiet wagon of at all time with just 1 pusher

[Raskolnikov]

forgot that was even a thing tbh until love l-1

[Raskolnikov]

the thing is, I've been in this situation before and every time just ending and seeing the flip made the game interesting again otherwise I'd have considered replacing or something (well and the game was explicitly dont replace)

[Raskolnikov]

and my ego thinks I'm probably actually half decent and either my probable scumpool is actually half accurate or will be d2 so I should probably keep myself around in any case

[Raskolnikov]

well, ultimately, it's not my decision though I guess

My lynch preference looks something like N_M > Cheeky > ZZZX > Chris (Ico's not actually so bad tbh)
Cheeky probably endgames this if shes scum btw FTR, even her associations I've seen are ridiculous, look at that scum game she had with mulch as example

[Raskolnikov]

@Love would you lynch any of my scumpool over me?

[Raskolnikov]

I do legit feel cheeky has an objective first that she's trying to play towards instead of the other way around where you hmm and scratch your head over things and then think of the way forward, even if everyone else is I guess townreading her

[Raskolnikov]

christopher and ZZZX have some level of content I just kinda don't like ZZ's and chris's is just so whatever

[Raskolnikov]

I mean I like to powercase medium targets as scum, if you're just looking for things to make a case on it's a lot easier, gets you townread and you get to lynch some of the more reasonable or actually decent players as well if you succeed

[Raskolnikov]

If you think NM/ZZZX are scum then why are you voting me? From your waffling I only see these reasons from your scumread on me:

- I haven't changed my theory of why you're scum.
- I haven't done research. How is that AI?

Your scum read makes no sense and this is your second OMGUS. If you're town then be more towny and analyse the wagon on you/try to see where people are coming from/make better votes.

the thing is usually I see some level of second guessing by now even if someone overall still thinks the same way

[Raskolnikov]

VOTE: N_M
IDK if revoting this even does anything but I guess everyone kinda does townread cheeky, if I'm not around at any point keep in my mind what I said though.

[Raskolnikov]

My lynch preference looks something like N_M > Cheeky > ZZZX > Chris (Ico's not actually so bad tbh)

Would do ZZ too or compromise on chris if its over me btw

[Raskolnikov]

Just don't have reasons for lynching nm or zzzx or chris, but that's because they're so low-content.

You don't even lean on the tone or anything?

[Raskolnikov]

that's like moonlogic though. would you think any d1 wagon on a lurkish slot is fishy af? would you never consider lynching a lurkish slot d1 in general? I don't know how you make the leap from a possibility to a probability

[Raskolnikov]

I pretty much never hesitate lynching these kinds of slots or even speculating entire scumteams out of either nulls or nullscums ever since my like most memorable newbie had both scum flake and replace out and town were chasing chickens the whole time

[Raskolnikov]

actually I literally joined this game because I thought the rule restriction would mean less chance of this kind of thing

there's also a thing I've seen from you this game which is draw a certain false equivalence and call me a hypocrite here, the problem with that being although I haven't been as active or pushing as earlier I still think I've given by far enough content this game for anyone to judge my slot on. But as I said earlier it's not even as simple as even that either.

[Raskolnikov]

If N_M is a town led wagon who is scum cheeky?

[Raskolnikov]

Given it's wrong (or fake), it should be discredited.

[Raskolnikov]

If N_M is a town led wagon who is scum cheeky?

If? Don't you mean since? I'm not playing. If it turns out that way I'll rethink then.

Really?

[Raskolnikov]

@GL, Bujaber, Ico, etc

ordered list of lynch prefs like 419 please

[Raskolnikov]

TBH Idk why love unvotes me there when just holding that vote for just a day or so pretty much forces a claim which I think is better for scum wincon fmpov.

[Raskolnikov]

Strongest by post is cheeky.
Strongest by gut / some poe is ZZ.

Wait what

????

[Raskolnikov]

If it comes down to either zz or chris I feel it'd be a coin flip honestly. I highly doubt both are scum. So best case scenario it's 50%. That's assuming that not both scum are 'active' players in the game. Also if love does flip scum it also makes it unlikely that either Zz or chris are scum because a lurker scum strategy usuallu requires a partner that is active. Unless they both just give up.

What I dont get is, given your pools almost everyone not in the love/me/gl pool are mostly lurkers except for ico (and I guess MM/cheeky slot but you top tr cheeky) so I'd generally think if love is scum then it just isnt the 1 lurk 1 active.

I'm not understanding when you say ZZ could be scum but poe suggests against it (and earlier in neither pool as null) tbh. Are you saying that just everyone else (apart from cheeky?) is so scummy that you don't think it's likely?

[Raskolnikov]

VOTE: Cheeky
feeling either with n_m or, if I'm wrong on n_m scum who knows n_m is town tbh

A white knight play from Cheeky is kind of plausible, but this vote switch seems way too convenient for the situation. It doesn't divest Raskie from his read on Not_Mafia, it lets him counter-vote the person pushing him the hardest, and I see potential for it to be contrived: if he's scum, I would bet that the bit after the comma was added when he realized that voting Cheeky on associative grounds instead of staying on the stronger read of the two was inconsistent, and he needed something else to cover for the switch.

The thing is I've been floating this before, though I can understand if this looks like hedging for N_M flip to say that regardless of n_m align cheeky is sus (the truth is closer to me thinking the read there is just somewhat stronger than I think is realistic in general for the ISO).

[Raskolnikov]

You still haven't explained why you scum read me.

Actually you're slightly towntelling a bit now, previously your focus was almost unnatural though seemingly now you've been kind of engaging me and reaching out a bit to engage others.

My problem with you is mostly I don't think your justification for townreading N_M is warranted given the ISO (I'd never be comfortable putting someone medium or strong on just weakish things like preflips and having a gut feeling on wagon vca) and the latter that the push/committing to your view so too hard (424) which idk anymore. And maybe a smidgeon bit of feeling that I'm actually somewhat kind of a desirable lynch target for scum here if I'm even partially right with my gameviews.

[Raskolnikov]

Christopher has a few decent last posts.

Can you be more specific with this btw? I don't know how you make this judgment they're kinda mixed for me.

[Raskolnikov]

Taking interest in other peoples N_M reads does makes sense if hes town with that read, and I'm kinda of biased towards that read too, but at the same time his reads themselves and judgments are too simple(?) for me to be confident they're real/depth-thats-hard-to-be-faked tbh.

[Raskolnikov]

@Ico are you seeing love here as significantly different from in one-shot?

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N_M give lynch preference list

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Christopher appears to be playing a low-risk scum game: a combination of seeming to not care about looking for scum reads, asking questions without appearing to be using them to sort players, and failing to take any bold or even unsafe stances, with the Raskie town read being the first such stance I've seen all game. I don't think his recent posting ameliorates this at all except for the Rask read, and even that's pretty weak.

Yeah idk, I think the read on you is alright (GL said what I would have said) but the justification for the one on me is like super meh ehhh

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I know this is the complete total opposite of what I've been pushing earlier, but assuming christopher replaces I wouldn't mind taking a bit to see the new slot and maybe actually ZZZX 1 post per day catchup finish.

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@kmd can we get some extension for easter?

I accounted for Easter and myself being busy leading up to it when I set the deadline

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welp

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I guess its between love and bu then unless people wanna do n_m

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bu's grouping logic is pants-on-head but loves been kinda meh apart from the read on me

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doublechecking bu meta, remember thinking this was town bu from skims earlier

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yeah his reads are super fake as scum imo, here looks not as bad

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the reads themselves not the reachy spec logic but i remember checking that when he said he was annoyed people were dismissive everytime because he does it a lot

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(expired on 2018-04-02 13:00:12)

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reads on individuals VS the grouping/pool logic weirdness

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will you consider voting N_M otherwise I'm l-1ing love

I don't think bu flips scum

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afaik his wanting to lynch in that pool is his justification for that he was going on about it earlier

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And I am still so confident in my theory of 1 scum between Rask/GL/love. So I'm flip flopping between you.

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I'd lynch zzzx or even chris atm over love I think
0 to 5 votes doesnt seem so viable atm though

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actually chris gets replaced

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would you flashwagon zzzx?

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IDK if I wake up before deadline ends so might not be able to consolidate if fails

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zzzzz I just assumed thisd be extended given easter and site was semi unusable with ads

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I get that people might disagree with it as a strategy but it's natural for me.
I am not locking myself to these people as only possible scum. What these lists do for me is make me split up the group of players into smaller categories.

When new posts or information come in I reevaluate.

But as long as I believe that the original reason for the grouping is still valid I stick to that grouping until new evidence comes that reinforces or invalidates it.

For example for the GL, Rask, love pool I strongly believe I am right for thinking that discussion was intentionally encouraged by scum. So until they flip or I can confidently townread all three that pool will remain as it is.

bu wanting to lynch gl before ico consistent with this afaik

can you case bu scum

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the "there must be 1 scum because the interaction felt that way" is stupid, but the "there is at most 1" and trying to lynch scum to clear remainders via assoc makes some sense. though obviously if hes scum its no commitment either as Id assume in that case its all 3t and hed be w/ other pool

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assocspec

Bujaber != christopher
Lovebird != Greenliquid
Bujaber != iconeum
Bujaber != cheeky (??? 354?)
Iconeum != Love ???
Love != Cheeky ???

with bu w/ love seem pretty unlikely unless votepark into VLA is d1 hardbus, and i didnt examine bu w/ GL (1v1s harder to tell if because its traditional distancing) but i dont think GL is scum as individual

I think if bus scum hes scum its almost exclusively N_M or ZZZX given assoc which admittedly are the worst ones to have open and given independently think mostly likely 1 scum in there so. welp ultimately kinda useless

this is why I wanted to lynch in N_M though because thinkscum but even if wrong clearing assocations can get into gamesolve

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*clearing open associations, which -> elim most scumteams

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afaik GL case boiled down to mostly the group logic

reading it again there the progression stuff but I thought bu read progression wasnt that bad (as in fake)

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Spoiler:

Can we lynch either IB or Mom? scum have nobody to go after so they're focusing on me. They know they can't go after someone else. I had an early wagon on me and nobody is townreading me strongly so I'm a good scum target.

Frigging hilarious this. I get called out for not scumhunting in the only game where I am clearly the one doing most of the work. You guys realize post count is not an indication of how much a player is contributing right?

It kinda makes sense to soft-defend lurkers if you are scumpartners with one or more of them.
SO I'm pretty confident there are 2 scum in {IB, Mom, NM, LUV, Sing, acryon, (and paradox though less likely since I'm TR'ing him at the moment)}

If there is a 3rd scum that would be pretty difficult to figure out but if that were the case I'd have to reconsider all my townreads.

Though a 3rd scum probably isn't likely because it seems risky to defend a lurking scum partner if you have another one also in the game. Unless of course the game is as easy as it seems and both IB and mom are scum, that leaves one of the lurkers as their final partner. At least that theory would explain why they haven't gone after each other or disagreed.

IB agree that mom is confusing, and that asking questions could be scummy but they low-key defend mom early on.

Can one of you just bus the other one so it's easier?

His play is textbook LAMIST but whether or not that means he's scum I'm still unsure.

I have played only once with eth0s and he was scum there and if these first few posts are any indication there's a noticeable difference.
But see this meta argument is conflicting with my gut read which is that he's scum.

What makes me sure eth0s and love aren't a team? Well 'sure' is obviously strong but I can't imagine the two scum would attract attention and fake accuse each other in such a small game so early on.

Especially a game like this where long-term strategy is rewarded (because of the possibility of multiple kills all at once later on).

I think kokichi is scum.

But your little fight with hop here makes me thing it's TvS.

I want to know who the S is.

I'm betting it's hop.

Exactly why the Deway wagon makes no sense.
Any of the lurkers can be scum or not. They haven't provided much in terms of reads. Rem is starting to now, but with a pretty big list of TR's like that even if we believe she's scum and lynch her where does that leave us? Her list would not provide us with much to go on. If she is scum it definitely contains a mix of townies and scum and we'll stilll have to figure out which is which.
Sure we might catch scum in deway, but then we still have the buj/moz/hop/flubb/monkey/seph block to deal with.

I think a lot of associatives can be drawn about these players. The who game has been centered around Monkey's scumreads to a big extent. Plus since noise can be interpretted as people purposefully ignoring these controversial cases (because they're scum, or because they're just confused town who don't care who gets lynched if it ain't them) so a lynch of one of these controversial cases might even help decipher the less forthcoming players.

Pick your top scumread from these and vote. I'm sticking with flubb.

grouplogic NAI (did see bu focus very early interactions->assoc in scumgames too)
meta/gut read not amiss, few strong reads across the board not amiss
this grouplogic is going pretty hard even for usual but given he doublesdown on it when literally everyone scumreads/hates idk if scum incentive there
progression on me starting from earlygame i thought was ok and gl(even omgusy)->love seems believable?

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yeah idk. despite n_m being on love wagon dont really want to lynch bu

thinking might be false dilemma anyways if its 2 T wagon though >__>

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VOTE: love

eh I hope i'm not being an idiot and singlehandedly stopping scumlynch d1 but oh well. [love ~50-60% town bu 75-80% ish IMO]. gnight.

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idk maybe even no lynch and hope for a save might be okay this pos rofl

if I am right about N_M here btw ftr i'm quoting this game every single time I say I think we should lynch lurker/trollscum d1 and people dont let me because "its lazy we have to lynch in people who gave content and give free passes otherwise"

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night

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wait

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(expired on 2018-04-02 13:00:12)

here

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uhhhhhhhhhhhh

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So it was a false choice in the end, there's not the votes around to do either lynch unless we get extension for replacements

TBH yes the deadline was long enough, but the particular timing meaning several slots are V/LA or being replaced still physically means votes around to consolidate which I'd take into mind

I once had a game I think where literally half the players were flakes and majority was physically impossible, this isnt that extreme but eh

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zzzz second guessing my buj read despite everything i said yesterday

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VOTE: icon

can we make this work?

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UNVOTE:

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@Lovebird who do you think is scum?

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VOTE: N_M

one last try, even if I'm wrong it helps a lot via narrowing, buj or love flipping town really wouldnt tell me anything I think. also if im around tomorrow with n_m question still unsolved (e.g 1 townread lynched 1 i assume killed but n_m zz chris slots all still around) i think I lose any remaining motivation to carry on tbh

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Feels like you're shopping around for a lynch.

Yes I am looking at lynches. I've spent the past hour or so wondering the best way to go forward.

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but now you cannot make up your mind. Some confident reads would go a long way for you on players with actual content i.e. on players other than NM.

I don't like it either.

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Of the more active slots I wouldn't mind compromising on iconeum which is why I float him here.

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It would be absolutely horrible but it's almost tempting to take up the opportunity to leave the game >__>

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Cheekyteeky, if I'm town and you throw out preflip assocationspec, what is your conviction that bujaber flips scum as a percentage

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if a flip is scum, I don't care about being suspected based on association afterwards as its still worth it even if 1 for 1

however being suspected based on an association before-the-fact is not something I can say anything to, but also makes me question if any of your other judgments have value, if most other conclusions are made stemming from one faulty one

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Okay, I think I only do N_M or flashwagon ZZ or compromise on iconeum.

stubborn as fuck, but whatever. not going to end up in an extended purgatory where i stay in the game and flips dont help. lately when I've been stubborn it's generally been the right move and sheeping hasnt

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Wtf? Your questionning if my content has value now? That's the most blatant discrediting I've ever seen. All players, scum included, have value in their posts which, if you were town, you'd try to get to the bottom of instead of making an argument about my proposal of pre-flip associations possibly devalues all my content.

No, not to everyone, it devalues it to me which is all that I care about making a judgment here pre deadline. Again this is where I say something fmpov and you say it's actually an argument for how everyone in the game should think and act.

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3 for N_M or I guess do icon compromise wagon

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VOTE: Cheeky

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No I unvoted earlier so not.

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IDK wtf this lynch love while pushing me/ico scum when ico (and maybe me also?) is a viable wagon and she said love town especially if her scumread is right

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I'm so tempted to vote rask right now.

Rask, is there anyone you do NOT want to lynch?

Yeah, I've been trying to lynch outside of buj mostly but also outside the two altogether.

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*buj and love

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Cheeky's "I am doing all this to be protown and get info for tomorrow" is rubbing me the wrong way.

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Given everything she said I'd not expect her to be happy with that lynch. My lynch on N_M would partially be for info but I don't townread him, I think he more likely flips scum than not.

The equivalent stance to cheeky would be like if saying N_M was one of my best townreads and is for sure town if my scumread flips scum, and then attempt to lynch him for info anyways, it doesn't make sense. If I put myself in her position her action is kind of ridiculous IMO.

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Actually I guess we only have one day

Love give lynch preference and put vote down somewhere

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Lovebird (3) Bujaber Icon Cheeky
Bujaber (1) GL
Cheeky (1) Rask
N_M (1) Chris
Rask (1) N_M

Not voting (2) Love, ZZZX

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zzzzzz no time for this I guess

if someone votes N_M I rejoin him then only need 1 more to l-1

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VOTE: NM l-2

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GL it's not lack of interest it's a lack of feel-good scumreads. Either I sheep onto someone I think more likely flips town than not with essentially no conviction or I be stubborn and lynch in leanscum or nulls which either scumflips or even if it doesn't at least then I know for sure then that one of my townreads is wrong.

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Anyways I think bujaber towntold recently with engaging n_m and in general so I feel better about that since I was second guessing.

Love otoh I thought she'd do way more. Give reads maybe when she thought she was hammered, do stuff in general under pressure but she's been super meh so idk. I guess my reason for townreading her before was okay for early but I haven't really seen scumhunting from her since maybe halfway into the day, she said she was busy before so that seemed to be the reason for it temporarily but now it's not really plausible for this long and since she's been active in her other game (which finished so can be mentioned)...

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This is kind of awkward because the same posts that ico and GL make now I actually kinda like even though at same time they're scumreading me more.

WRT cheeky if cheeky made that post as a reaction test and not thinking it's a hammer that changes it but my impression was my unvote on love was semi silent (revote) and iconeum appeared to vote love to add a vote (though he was on it originally back when love was l-1 so the wagon wasn't bigger than last time) so I think those two things make it very believable that love really was l-1 there...

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Eh, I might have just been stupid on this game though if it's love with e.g. zz or chris.

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VOTE: lovebird

I think I'm okay consolidating back on this, initially it was a question of lynch vs no lynch but now I actually feel semi-okay about this.

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It's funny though, because now as a scumread I think people freak out about and reconsider whatever wagon I join now

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zzzzx town

Hey wait what?

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VOTE: N_M

GL, cheeky, and icon have all given extreme opposition to the wagon to the nth degree so idk who would be willing to intent or hammer, maybe ZZZX or chris replacement.

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Bah. I was getting really close to lynching love near d1 end but did go back to nm which yeah was pretty bad. If I was alive d2 she'd be the lynch btw (unless it was me I guess), though I did strongly think partner was ZZZX as an individual slot but also for quickhammering because it felt possibly lovebird defendy and WTF was that never ending story catchup and that read was also a mistake.

I feel like there was too much friction between me, iconeum, bujaber, and cheeky this game for in some cases stylistic things. It took me a while to read bu, and it was like eod to go back to thinking "okay realistically there is prob no way cheeky is scum here even though I really hate her hardpushing me" especially post-hammer reading her last couple of d1 posts which were kinda obvtown, though idk if I ever would've read iconeum correctly. Or the zzzx slot (okay they both conftowned later via claims but that's cheating, and I guess its possible for either to not have done it until lylo and got into an unconfirmed 1v1).

Though I'm pretty sure I'd have lynched lovebird, I probably would never have lynched GL and so probably still have lost, I townread him significantly and screwed up big time by thinking he probably wasn't with lovebird because of earlyday play. Even though korina seemed super town when I saw his replacing I think I'd still maybe have ended up mindscrewing myself into lynching ank if I was around too because "well I could see chris iso having been scum" I guess or something stupid like that. Maybe in a scenario where icon and zz/bvslot got conftowned by claims and I'd be forced to reconsider my gameviews there'd be a very small chance? Idk. I'm kind of sad though because when d2 was going on and it looked like love was doomed (korina, ico, bu, I think most people where pushing or scumreading her) I wrote up a congrats thing in my notes because I thought after that lynch you like get partner zz easypeasy quicklynch and super fast GG d3 but I was not only wrong on partner but also obviously the love thing fell apart because I think korina replaced? and people started fighting again.

Mmm, Idk how but I also have to be more rational or detached when people are hard pushing me for stylistic reasons. When people focus on me I either think (oh they're trying to read me that's so good) like lovebird early/mid despite her having like no other scumhunting or activity in the game, or I get hardpushed in a way like cheeky that makes me feel I have almost no way to defend myself against it and it makes me want to go off the deep end and really hard 1v1 them to try to lynch them just so they stop pushing me. It was bad here too because both scum were somewhat scumreading/willing to lynch me I think (love vote and GL casing me) so it was kind of in their control/definitely they contributed and it's bad for scum to be able to affect me like that, if it was just town it wouldn't have been as severe I think. In fact that and the risk that I was going to get mislynched later was why I did try to bait NK, though I also thought that play gave me a slightly better chance of, well, not being lynched from that very same wagon d1, I was definitely hoping to get killed at that point. I guess that tactical thing is a very small victory in this but I have a lot to learn wrt to defending pushes on me and learning how to read very high-effort high-detail tried-very-hard-to-fake-thought-processes people like GL, or maybe basically just be more paranoid.

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Also I should queue somewhat more carefully. I know I can't function well especially d1 when there's lurkers >= [size of scumteam] but I thought the mod message on replacements being like blacklisted would not only minimize replacements but also somehow keep people active (idk why I thought that part). Though also usually I have a few people I've played with before which kinda helps in reads, in this case I've only vaguely played with N_M and it wasn't much and I can't really read him, I think normally that boost and having less to try to learn just what peoples base styles are (instead of wasting a ton of time on trying to learn via metadigs) can compensate when I have trouble reading other slots (including lurkish slots) and I think is usually is why it's not as big a problem for me as it was here. Though it is in some ways a crutch and maybe the real solution is to git gud and like soulread lurkerslots somehow.