Open 712: Elemental Large (Mafia win)

[Mathdino]

i've been caught up for a while, gimme a bit to finish my video game

[Mathdino]

tl;dr

Paradox --> Jay

a50/creature town

everyone else i didn't pay attention to

[Mathdino]

Right okay here.

So I'm here cuz davesaz asked nicely when we all signed up for 716.

Caught up in the game, saw Paradox was fkin obvscum in basically every way possible, saw there were actually two slots, waited til the second was free.

I would assume the reason Boonskiies took this slot after it was open for so long is because he's good at scum. He can correct me if I'm wrong postgame.
VOTE: Flavor Leaf

I don't think I really need to make a case on Paradox but I can do a quick quotewall of "posts that made me want to lynch it with fire".

Also everyone that ever voted A50 should be dragged through the mud either ingame or postgame. My predecessor included.

[Mathdino]

You say A50 is a stronger scumread than doom, and yet you're still voting doom?

FoS Taly

Someone else pointed this shit out, I hard-agree. This is in no way a good reason to scumread someone. No nuanced thoughts.

Here what I'm getting is a lot of people jumping on me at once, which seems extremely opportunistic.

This is literally how scum-Creature defends himself.

I sincerely apologize to you guys, I know it hurts town for me to replace out. I feel really bad. It's totally my fault that I overgamed myself.

After the 2 posts where he talked about how he was losing motivation, he makes a 3rd post basically townclaiming.

It's LAMISTing as a means to not completely fuck over his slot.

Anyway we're policy lynching Jay tomorrow and just looking at the votecount, I need to take a look at Lalendra. Generally echoing Creature's sentiment of "what the fuck is this game and why is no one town". A50 really didn't need to claim there.

[Mathdino]

Almost50 (6) - doomfeathers, Sando, TheGoldenParadox, Shadpearl, Lalendra, texcat
TheGoldenParadox (5) - JaydragonKing, Kopherald, Ausuka, Creature, Taly
Shadpearl (1) - havingfitz
doomfeathers (1) - Almost50
Lalendra (1) - Aneninen
Aneninen (1) - profii

I will completely lose hope in this site if everyone on the A50 wagon was town. Scum would hammer that shit. Plus it's HIGHLY likely A50 was wagoned in retaliation for voting Paradox.

A50-Wagon-Scumpool: {Sando, Shadpearl, Lalendra, texcat}

Quick review shows {Sando, Shadpearl, Lalendra} were ALSO on the Creature wagon, so

TheGoldenParadox (7) - JaydragonKing, Kopherald, Ausuka, Creature, Taly, Almost50, texcat
Almost50 (4) - doomfeathers, Sando, TheGoldenParadox, Lalendra
Shadpearl (1) - havingfitz
doomfeathers (1) - Aneninen
Aneninen (1) - profii

Not Voting (2) - JimmyUrineMoneyShot, Shadpearl

And Paradox doesn't get to the brink of a lynch without getting bussed.

Paradox-Wagon-Scumpool: {Jay, Kopherald, Ausuka, Taly, texcat}

Shadpearl bouncing off the bad optics A50 wagon without revoting is questionable.

ISOing everyone in these pools.

fitz is a non-presence and Aneninen is non-readable.

Jimmy is town by VCA but fucking lol at him SK-hunting Creature.

creature get back here and give me a townpool to sheep this is fucking ridiculous

[Mathdino]

Actually, I’m going to straight up claim. I’m one of the doctors.

Scum optimal strategy is to claim doctor and I STRONGLY disbelieve that Paradox would replace out of a TPR slot.

[Mathdino]

sando's ISO makes me want to beat my head against a wall but the twisty pretzel logic is town

[Mathdino]

shadpearl's ISO is pure cringe

either hardtown or scum hardfaking newbtown

@Shadpearl:

Do you have any links of you playing forum mafia offsite?

nothing in lalendra's ISO suggests town
but then again nothing in lalendra's entire career suggests town

is anyone here actually capable of gutreading lalendra

[Mathdino]

VOTE: Almost

Spit on me anyway.

jay what the actual fuck is this vote

[Mathdino]

sando's ISO makes me want to beat my head against a wall but the twisty pretzel logic is town

Wanna actual provide some, you know, logic, for this statement?

The amount of anti-A50 wagon without actually addressing anything strikes me as fairly telling for later in the game.

Sure thing. I assume you mean anti-A50wagon from me rather than a general sentiment, although I'm interested if you're paranoid of anti-A50wagon stuff in general.

Creature is OMGUSy by nature

, He hate to be wagoned as either alignment and could very well SR his voters, I admit. However, his entrance was HORRIBLE. The "Town?" comment on an opening post by doom was silly enough to earn Creature a SR on it's own, even if he had to retract it soon after.

Creature is GOOD as Town

, and would not have commented on that post AT ALL if he was Town here. The bad play/nonesense still points to Scum!Creature, especially since that comment came while he was catching up, thus should have yet seen what I said about him (i.e. no way he OMGUS SR'd me as Town!him would still)

This is very scummy to me, firstly you establish that Creature apparently has 2 metas:

1: Scum!Creature lurks and gets prodded/replaced in his scum games (post 26 that creature just quoted)
2: town!Creature is OMGUS a lot but a very good town player

I would 100% agree with 1, I just finished a game a few weeks ago with him where he was scum and everything said about him applied to a T. I can see the OMGUS argument just from this thread,

but to claim that he's both OMGUS-y AND a good player says that you think the OMGUS from him is not anti-town

.

However, apart from the OMGUS creature has not posted anything "bad" in terms of being town that I've seen, and since you yourself basically don't think OMGUS is anti-town...why do you think he's scum? To get to him being Scum you have to completely ignore the meta that you yourself stated (because he's certainly not lurking and getting prodded), and also have not established any poor town play other than OMGUS, which you think is just "part of his nature".

UNVOTE:

VOTE: Almost50

This is basically a badpost nitpicking the semantics of something A50 is trying to get across. I had to read it like 3 goddamn times to actually grok what it's trying to say, which is basically "A50 is referring to Creature as if A50 already knows Creature is town".

I think scum in your situation just points it out simply instead of launching into a huge lecture that basically writes yourself into a massive tunnel on him.

OMGUS is never antitown if you actually think the scumread on you is scum-motivated.

Is it really OMGUS at that point though? The problem with OMGUS is it muddies the water by overdoing it to everyone who looks your way, making it harder to see said scum-motivated scumreads when they occur.

I don't think OMGUS play is particularly alignment indicative, however if you constantly do it then it risks the rest of town tuning out your legitimate scumreads on people attacking you as boy who cried wolf, which yeah is anti-town in making your scumhunting less effective.

For the moment you're well and truly outside your scum-meta, you're scumhunting, while also OMGUS-ing a lot. I'm putting you town but I'm wary of your reads due to the OMGUS nature (he says voting the person you're in an argument with).

Also my point on A50 is that he apparently agrees with you that OMGUS is not anti-town, yet also attacks you for OMGUS... I don't see any "bad play" from you apart from over-use of OMGUS, so I feel A50 is attacking you for your OMGUS while also saying that OMGUS is not anti-town.

Okay lemme try to sum up what you're doing here:

1. If you OMGUS too much it masks your scumgames, a la RadiantCowbells.
2. OMGUSing is NAI but anti-town.
3. You're town but you OMGUS enough for me not to trust you.
4. [bad points against A50]

The only way I see #3 as scum motivated is if Creature happens to be scumreading your scumbuddies (which is a narrow situation). Occams Razor says you're pants-on-head town.

Regarding A50... do you need a towncase from me?

Like I have a 100% record of reading A50 as mafia or not mafia correctly across multiple games. I have a blind spot for his SK game, but he also doesn't fucking claim doctor if he's a serial killer.

I think A50 thinks he's better scum than he is, and the fact that he brags about that so much makes him easy ML-bait. He's good enough at scum to be successful in a lot of the playerlists he's in, but there's ALWAYS a method to his madness, and he's very easily motivation readable.

I guarantee you though that scum-A50 doesn't get wagoned on D1. He also doesn't open himself up to a town-Creature by trying to wagon him, WHILE KNOWING Creats is an OMGUSy player. Scum-A50 is much more fundamentally survivalistic than town A50 (granted, scum-A50 will make himself look NOT survivalistic, it's just that I can tell the difference ).

tl;dr: The majority of your ISO is a shitty tunnel but despite (and partly because of) that, you're town.
From your (rational) POV, either I'm literally scum with A50, or you should trust my read here. 100% record doesn't come from nothing.

[Mathdino]

And yeah, A50 found the flaw in the standard Boon scumplan. He's better as scum lategame, and doing this essentially forces a tracker claim.

He also admitted to specifically searching for a scumslot to replace into (after I already called him on it, mind you). I think he had an initial plan for rolling scum with me, but is telling the truth in that he changed it when he found that wasn't the case.

[Mathdino]

I actually question the idea that he'd even claim tracker as scum now that I think about it.

Consider that by claiming tracker today, he forces a tracker counterclaim today and gets lynched today.

By claiming doctor (and obviously getting tracked), he mislynches another townie, survives another day, and either:
A. Forces a tracker guilty tomorrow, getting lynched tomorrow
B. Potentially forces a doctor massclaim tomorrow which is far more valuable than a tracker claim
C. Like A50 said, he can just claim to protect the guy he's killing. Or kill someone who's obviously going to get doc'd and claim that he was the doctor that saved them.

[Mathdino]

sando's ISO makes me want to beat my head against a wall but the twisty pretzel logic is town

Wanna actual provide some, you know, logic, for this statement?

The amount of anti-A50 wagon without actually addressing anything strikes me as fairly telling for later in the game.

tbh if experience is anything to go by
i have about a 40% chance of dying tonight
that goes up to like 65% since there are two kills to go around (A50 is in the exact same boat)

a lot of today is based around paradox and i think that flip will spew a lot more people as town than me nitpicking people's ISOs
i'll do a readthrough for townslips but no reads lists
if i'm actually alive tomorrow i'll do the full analysis but i'd rather just lynch scum and get shot
VOTE: Flavor Leaf
let's end it

P.S. if i die, you HAVE to lynch jay before LyLo
absolutely no exceptions
at all

[Mathdino]

i did not mean to quote that post

[Mathdino]

am I reading that wrong or is that a language slip?

that tell was made up a decade ago, it doesn't actually work

we are not lynching A50 today (or probably any day)

why are you not voting

Edit: math/a50 getting along is a death sentence for us
i acknowledge your vote

still wondering why you unvoted in the first place without any new ideas other than "policy lynch A50, one of the more skilled players in the game"

if you want to policy lynch at all this setup, the #1 person is jay, followed by prod dodging lurkers

[Mathdino]

FTR; as soon as this flips scum Jay is automatically clear here. He was the leading vote on TGP and didn't twitch when he got to L-1

Also, ftr (and I'm sorry to say this) Dino doesn't get a free pass. A leeway maybe, but that's it. I'm not sure how to say this, but if Dino is Scum and he gets his way he's going to win anyway. He could have found himself backed to the wall and was forced to bus without pre-arrangements or he could still be the SK. The leeway though is because IF he is Town he can lead the Town to a flawless victory.

@Dino: I sincerely do apologize if you're really Town here. You're just too good to be taken a face value and I'm afraid I won't have the time to sort you as I'm tonight's NK anyway. Good Luck though.

P-edit: Hypothetically speaking; if you were Town you would not have asked to be Tracked to begin with. That is just bad play (for Town). I honestly don't know what I would have said or done if I was in that hypothetical situation, but I certainly would NOT have asked the Tracker to be on me. Maybe do some ISOing and leave us notes on who is scum so we can use your reads after you flip?

- If this flips scum, I think we have more than enough info to gamesolve. I'm more interested in what happens if this flips town.

- Would've been weirder if you did give me a free pass.
Look the only way I win after N1 hardbussing a scumbuddy like this is if town is godawful and speedlynches good players just because I tell them to. The fact that I was scumreading Paradox so hard was specifically why I didn't replace in. Because that (somewhat provably) happened before I knew my alignment, that fact in itself is more skill-indicative than alignment-indicative.

- Not sure what you're apologising for. You scumread my slot because he had terrible reads and 0 charisma (I lost respect for this slot once I saw his push on havingfitz). But your ability to read doom is between you and him.
Regardless, I wouldn't be surprised if I got NK'd instead because of doctor WIFOM, but w/e. I'm quickly approaching RC levels of constantly getting NK'd in the open queue.

Just gonna reiterate that if A50 lives through the night, I'm haunting all of your asses if you lynch him here.

[Mathdino]

A50-Wagon-Scumpool: {Sando, Shadpearl, Lalendra, texcat}

Paradox-Wagon-Scumpool: {Jay, Kopherald, Ausuka, Taly, texcat}

You know, that's an impressively long way of saying not much at all.

See that I've already ruled out Sando and Shadpearl.

I've been in a VCA mood and I'm basically giving myself bins to work in. I highly doubt the A50 wagon was all town (towns are not usually this bad, to wagon A50 for the reasons given), and I doubt the Paradox wagon was ever all town regardless of Paradox's alignment.

The goal is basically to find enough town in that set of 8 players to narrow down an effective lynchpool for tomorrow. Not pushing any scumreads yet (other than the obvious Paradox), just showing where I'm at. I hate reading/catching up chronologically.

[Mathdino]

We should remember this post from Ausuka if Flavour Leaf flips scum. By the way, Shadpearl's scum too. And Jay.

Someone needs to explain the Shadpearl case outside of "Shad lacks charisma". Cuz I'm definitely not okay with that lynch.

I don't think that post alone is particularly indicative for Ausuka, but I'll do a readthrough over the night.

Jay is scum even when he's town, so you're not wrong.

[Mathdino]

creature what's your read on A50 then
because he wasn't forced to claim at all

and yeah you're basically correct, optimal scum claiming strategy is to have one doc claim

also fuck me up i need help townhunting

[Mathdino]

Aneninen, you seem to have spent most of your ISO shitting on Lalendra and her alignment yet townbinning her. Am I missing something?

Sando is town, A50 is locktown, Ausuka is weird but consistent with what I know of her I guess, texcat I haven't seen in years (but she was good as scum so I want that read to be meta-informed), and who tf is Milotic?.

[Mathdino]

FUCKING LOL

[Mathdino]

On-wagon kill + on-wagon goon suggests at least one off-wagon scum.

Creature's town, Sando's town-I-guess.

First glance suggests Taly's entire push on Jay was mad distancing. No canvassing for votes, explicitly stated it was a pressure vote to get Jay to do something. I don't actually think his case on Jay was alignment indicative.
VOTE: Taly

Besides that, need to look at fitz, Shad, Ausuka, and Jimmy, who was effectively off-wagon by virtue of being the hammer.

[Mathdino]

Guess I'm this dayphase's mislynch target

Are you suggesting scum is setting you up for a mislynch...?

[Mathdino]

So there had to be at least one scum on that wagon, and my vote is mathdino. Shad and ausuka, is there a reason you didn't vote?

There already was one scum on the wagon. It was Jay.

What makes you believe there was more scum on a doc wagon?

[Mathdino]

I mean if anyone counterclaims him he's immediately confirmed scum or lying.

[Mathdino]

You think Taly pressure-pushes Jay for half the day and then kills his scumread? SK crosskilling doesn't actually benefit them in a setup this large imo.

I'm don't think SK hunting is the most effective thing we could be doing, unless there's someone that would hilariously obviously benefit from Jay being dead (honestly literally anyone who hasn't played with him before might think this).

[Mathdino]

I mean SK hunting in my experience is a scumtell that actually works tbh.

Ironically, a scum death has done very little to actually help broaden my townpool.

[Mathdino]

Reading through Lalendra's ISO, finding only 2 things of note.

1. She suspected A50, Shadpearl, and Flavor Leaf. Clearly she suspected A50/Flavor because of their doc claims.

2. Had a weird interaction with Aneninen; I think Anen picked up on her being a doc given his unexplained townread. And given how blatant it was, I'm guessing Jay noticed it (or scum-Anen openly deduced she was a PR and then killed her which would be hilarious/unlikely).

The fact that Shadpearl is using NKA against me and A50 when proper NKA of Lalendra clearly points to him is all sorts of wrong. A50 and I tend to be killed more often when our reads are good. In this case A50 was deathtunneling a doc and I was floundering with like no reads other than "policy lynch Jay" and "Sando/Shadpearl are hardtown".

So yeah I can accept that being alive means my reads were shit:
VOTE: Shadpearl

[Mathdino]

I have seen JaydragonKing do many things
But I have yet to see him bus unless he has to

[Mathdino]

UNVOTE:
fuck me up this is locktown

i need to check with the mod on something

[Mathdino]

UNVOTE:
fuck me up this is locktown

i need to check with the mod on something

Guys, trust me on this. You're better off wagoning elsewhere. I'm 95% sure Shadpearl is town and about 50% sure they'll have to be modkilled for it. Like I feel bad for things influencing my reads but w/e.

Coming back to this once mod takes a look.

[Mathdino]

I don't hold it against you, but if anything it's just a showcase of the danger of talking about ongoing games. Like I currently have information I don't think many others have and that affects the game a lot when I was originally scumreading you.

[Mathdino]

talk about taking one for the team

i shot lalendra because she was a doc

i thought A50 was a doc actually but i wanted to leave him alive for paranoia

had i stayed in the slot i would've shot him the next night i think