Open 713: Jungle Republic [Game Over]

[Montosh]

VOTE: Espeonage

Inb4 he nearly shoots scum but then changes his mind.

[Montosh]

Yeah nothing really wrong with a PL vote this early, even if it's kinda weak. You're not exactly gonna have much more info on page 1 RVS.

p-edit: Damnit skitter said it better.

[Montosh]

VOTE: Beefster

It's a good policy lynch, and, hey, maybe a wolf or scum to boot.

VOTE: Thor665
No protown player does this in RVS. Semi-serious vote.

No protown player does what?
Because I'd love to see you support this logic. It's the opposite of everything I know and have ever seen on this site, so

either I'm really wrong, or you're full of hoo-hah

.

Is where you're setting up a false dichotomy. Like, you can be wrong, he can be wrong. If he's wrong, then he's not necessarily full of shit. You're not just saying one of who you is wrong, you're saying that you're wrong or that he's being disingenuous.

I think that sidestepping RVS with an immediate serious vote is not actually a scum thing to do though, since scum generally prefer to have less content than more. I think this is perhaps less true here given that we a scum faction with a night kill, but it still does stray from the scum desire to stay somewhat under the radar, especially early on.

I've never played with Thor, can any who have tell me whether he's usually this forceful in his approach?

What's interesting about this is that Thor was not framing this as "Paradox is wrong and therefore scum". That leap was made by you in 33, with skitter drawing the opposite implication in 46. I don't actually think that the rightness or wrongness of the initial argument is particularly alignment indicative for either player, nor do I think it is a particularly important argument in the grand scheme of things, so it's interesting to me that people who are not Paradox/Thor are the ones trying to raise the stakes here.

It seemed to be more "Paradox is wrong and therefore disingenuous". But given that town have no reason to be disingenuous as a rule, the implication is along the lines of "Paradox is wrong and therefore disingenuous".

On "raising the stakes", whatever that means. It's probably not an important argument overall... unless it is. We don't know, it's the first argument of the game. Why would people not engage with it? What is so interesting about that?

[Montosh]

Is where you're setting up a false dichotomy. Like, you can be wrong, he can be wrong. If he's wrong, then he's not necessarily full of Smurf. You're not just saying one of who you is wrong, you're saying that you're wrong or that he's being disingenuous.

Hoo-hah is not a synonym for excrement.
It's a synonym for 'noise'
So "you're full of hoo-hah" = "you're full of noise" = "your stance isn't supported"
That's a bit different than saying 'you're full of bull-poo and are scum!"

So does the actual definition of the word (and no evidence that I was calling him scummy for believing what he said, and instead asked simply for him to back up his beliefs [which we're still working on]) change your take of my "false dichotomy?
Or no?
If no - why not?

Well I read through your ISO and you don't ever say he's scum or make a similar implication anywhere else. But "you're full of noise" != "your stance isn't supported". To me it more suggests something along the lines of "you're full of empty words". As in you're saying nothing while trying to appear to be saying something. I don't want to nitpick language here, if your meaning was along the lines of you don't agree with his stance than that's fine. The only weird thing is that you're going at him aggressively for a first post. I expected RVS, and you came right off the bat with this PL vote. Like, I'm not surprised it got someone to respond.

I get the sense that this is your playstyle.

I'm not surprised that people are engaging in it. I am suspicious of people who see an argument and immediately infer that one of the participants must be scum. This feels opportunistic to me.

That's sorta what you do though . You point out actions or posts that seem like they have scum motivation.

And where did anyone declare someone as definitely scum in this argument? I just saw people saying certain behaviour seemed like it could be scummy.

p-edit:

@Thor: If it's a T v T, some scum might egg it on sure but I feel like scum are more likely to try and not get too involved with it Day 1, given that a mislynch is generally pretty likely anyway first day.

[Montosh]

@Wilky I agree that I can't see much scum motivation for either of them. My point is more that I don't think it's at all inherently scummy to just engage with the argument. If you have problems with a specific scumread that's one thing but I find the whole blanket indictment of anyone who engages to be the wrong way to go about it.

[Montosh]

I'm not surprised that people are engaging in it. I am suspicious of people who see an argument and immediately infer that one of the participants must be scum. This feels opportunistic to me.

And where did anyone declare someone as definitely scum in this argument? I just saw people saying certain behaviour seemed like it could be scummy.

I already pointed to 33 and 46 as examples of people trying to frame this as TvS.

Neither of those posts demonstrate someone framing it as Town vs Scum. I don't know where you feel you're getting this from. This feels like you're trying to stay above the argument while framing all those who do engage as suspicious.

@Thor: If it's a T v T, some scum might egg it on sure but I feel like scum are more likely to try and not get too involved with it Day 1,

given that a mislynch is generally pretty likely anyway first day.

In

this

setup? Mmm... This comment bothers me.

Statistics bother you? Yes, In

this

setup. 12 people, 3 mafia, 2 werewolves, 7 town.

Just to explain myself, Thor's frustration with my playstyle is fresh and looks very town. His defense of half-jokingly PL'ing me is genuine.

Why couldn't I be scum and also honestly consider you a valid policy lynch?

It's certainly possible, but given other evidence (particularly your obvtown response), I just don't think you're scum. I mean, the fact that you're willing to raise this question says something. I probably would have ignored it had I been scum.

I could speculate things like "because it would be too easy", but that's on par with WIFOM in terms of unhelpfulness.

This strikes me the wrong way. Your whole play seems centred around defending Thor. If we have town!Thor, then this strikes me as you trying to buddy up with him by defending him and attacking those attacking him. Laserguy is sorta doing this too. Yours strikes me more though, you feel like a follower on top of it. At least Laserguy was pushing their own things, even if it strays closer to buddying Thor than I'm comfortable with/

VOTE: Beefster

Well I read through your ISO and you don't ever say he's scum or make a similar implication anywhere else. But "you're full of noise" != "your stance isn't supported". To me it more suggests something along the lines of "you're full of empty words". As in you're saying nothing while trying to appear to be saying something. I don't want to nitpick language here, if your meaning was along the lines of you don't agree with his stance than that's fine.

I agree, it is fine - I'm just curious why you automatically decided to attack me over a theory concept of my desire that was unsupported in anything I did or said (Skitter's doing it too, and I suspect the reality is both of you are equating aggressive with scummy - but that's such an obvious fallacy that I want you to unpack the thoughts and lay them on the table so I can be sure).

I disagree that I was attacking you. Your initial statement seemed to imply that he was scummy, and I'm not the only one who noticed this. I find your style of play difficult to parse yes, simply because you're throwing so much out there in different directions and I'm having trouble locking you down. I

could

see that as a scummy thing to do, but I want to establish where you're going with what you say and if this is consistent with your normal style of play.

The only weird thing is that you're going at him aggressively for a first post. I expected RVS, and you came right off the bat with this PL vote. Like, I'm not surprised it got someone to respond.

The "only weird thing" is that I used my RVS in a way that was nearly assured to generate a response...
What am I supposed to use RVS for? Something that *doesn't* generate a response?
I would suggest that's bad/scummy play.
Why do you consider the opposite to be true?

I think it's probably fairly good play. But it doesn't feel like the norm exactly. Does it really surprise you that people reacted to that? Like, I think i'm getting that your style of play is to after

every

thread of info hard, but I can't believe you've never had people being off put a little by just how hard you go at it.

[Montosh]

@mutant It's been more than 48 hours since game start, can we get a prod on Not Mafia? Also, happy birthday!

- Yeah, I was planning to do this but then my birthday got in the way :3 Thanks for the birthday wish <3

[Montosh]

Your perspective is wrong. For Town, the odds of hitting scum D1 in this game are ridiculously good. In a typical setup, it's like 20%. In this game, it's nearly 50%. Your comment makes sense coming from the point of view of scum, but not of Town.

Scum are not going to try and lynch their partners. With that in mind and noting that this setup is majority town means that a mislynch remains the most likely scenario Day 1. Yes, scum groups targeting each other raise the odds of a scum lynch, but nowhere near the levels you're suggesting. A cursory glance at the previous game played with this setup listed on the wiki reveal this to be the case.

The ability to recognize this is not limited to scum, it's limited to those who read the setup.

VOTE: wilky Serious vote, Montosh is scum too. Wolves NK Thor pls

You gonna expand on any of that?

[Montosh]

NM so you scumread Thor?
Why? Why not?

Upon rereading I have comvinced myself that skitter v Thor is definitely TvS. Or in this game possibly SvW. So I'll be voting there and only there. Whether you like it or not Thor you made it binary.

VOTE: Skitter

This is a bad way of going about things, not to mention that you only keep to it for about 5 minutes. You have no reason to think it's not a town vs town at this point. Even if it's not, why skitter over Thor?

Your perspective is wrong. For Town, the odds of hitting scum D1 in this game are ridiculously good. In a typical setup, it's like 20%. In this game, it's nearly 50%. Your comment makes sense coming from the point of view of scum, but not of Town.

Scum are not going to try and lynch their partners. With that in mind and noting that this setup is majority town means that a mislynch remains the most likely scenario Day 1. Yes, scum groups targeting each other raise the odds of a scum lynch, but nowhere near the levels you're suggesting. A cursory glance at the previous game played with this setup listed on the wiki reveal this to be the case.

All of these things are true in any setup. The fact that this is multiball increases the odds of us hitting scum compared to a single team, in fact, and if the odds were really that much worse than chance, then we'd be better off letting random.org do the lynch, because then the odds would be exactly chance. But that isn't really the point. The point is that your perspective on how the lynch is going to go is not that of Town. Your post hoc rationalization doesn't change the initial error.

Translation: I'm scum because I read the setup

I'm wondering if scum would openly make such an awful argument Day 1.

I think your reads on beef and Esp are under-explained. Beef seems to be coasting along somewhat and either trying to sheep other people. Esp is saying very little while posting a lot. I can't imagine him as a townread at this point in the game.

I think that taking the stance that bussing isn't going to be a thing is a really crazy stance to take. I think that wolves are probably less inclined to bus, but I wouldn't put it past mafia to bus.
However white flag gambit is definitely a thing and active in this setup where wolves can lose with a member still alive, same with mafia who can eat a nk to lose.

:/

Who's this in response to? Sure scum'll probably bus but they're not gonna actively try and get their partners lynched. There's a difference and that changes the probabilities.

I must have misread it.

Okay I'm day 1 lynch. Unforgivable mistake.

Is this AtE? If so, it's really bad AtE.

I tunnel when I think I'm right. And I think I'm right.

But let's not forget I wanted to lynch a lurker so no I'm not narrowing the pool as much as you seem to imply.

A pool of two people is not particularly indistinguishable from a pool of two people plus a lurker. If you think thor is trying to set it up as a binary, then why are you following it? You don't need to. If you're town, there's no point limiting yourself to two people.

[Montosh]

On NM, I think it's not a good idea to let him coast along for too long. It's what he did the last game I played with him, where we were both scum, and he was very good at not getting too noticed and having people think he was town because his play was consistent with his meta and therefore NAI.

If he actually engages at some point then we can get some reads but if he continues like this it basically becomes impossible to read him.

[Montosh]

Gonna do some catch-up.

On NM, I think it's not a good idea to let him coast along for too long. It's what he did the last game I played with him, where we were both scum, and he was very good at not getting too noticed and having people think he was town because his play was consistent with his meta and therefore NAI.

If he actually engages at some point then we can get some reads but if he continues like this it basically becomes impossible to read him.

That is exactly my point.
Espeo wants us to lynch rather than let him coast. But if everyone is in agreement that NM doing nothing is NAI then the odds of him playing scum or wolf or town are equal. It is basically just a shot in the dark.

We let him live for a while and maybe you get more information to act on.

Weren't you all about lynching him just a few posts before? Or rather lynching a lurker? What changed? Just that it's his meta?

I don't like how suddenly and inexplicably you keep changing your opinions on things. You don't do much in the way of explanation and rather just assert things.

All of these things are true in any setup. The fact that this is multiball increases the odds of us hitting scum compared to a single team, in fact, and if the odds were really that much worse than chance, then we'd be better off letting random.org do the lynch, because then the odds would be exactly chance. But that isn't really the point. The point is that your perspective on how the lynch is going to go is not that of Town. Your post hoc rationalization doesn't change the initial error.

Honestly, I think that people might sometimes forget that they're playing multiball, and just play like it's singleball.

Like you also sound like you forgot we were playing multiball here in the bolded below; you're ignoring the possibility that thor/paradox might be s v w.

Unfortunately, yes, Town do this as well. I don't think all of the participants are necessarily scum, but I think it's more likely that we'll find scum in {BuJabar, Korina, skitter} than in {Thor, Paradox}.

Unless, I suppose, both you and Paradox are scumbuddies and this is all theatre, which is certainly possible for D1,

but I don't think that's what happening here.

I think you're reading too much into that statement by montosh tbh.

No, I was specifically referring to Thor and Paradox being aligned scum here. But your defense of Montosh is noted.

Translation: I'm scum because I read the setup

Good job misrepresenting my argument. That's sure to earn you lots of townie credit.

What exactly is your argument? That my post seemed like it was from the perspective of scum? Because as I recall the whole point of my little aside to Thor there was to think about what scum were likely to be doing.

The 2/5 is explained in the posts I made earlier: (actually 2/6 I mentioned.. 1 from thor/skitter/paradox, 1 from laser, espeo, beef) but it could also be more - say 3 or 4 from those 6, but that's statistically a much lower chance.

I think you're making the same mistake as Montoge here... you aren't correctly accounting for the number of scum in the game and it's leading you to make some really weird conclusions.

Let's suppose you're right and there's exactly one scum in {Thor/Skitter/Paradox} and one in {Laser, Espeo, Beef}. Who should we lynch? From the point of view of Town!you, we should lynch one of {Not Mafia, Dr Fanta, Korina, wilky and Montosh}. According to your reads, three of those five players are scum. You have a much better chance of hitting scum in that pool than you do in either of the pools that you're interested in.

Oh now I really don't like this. You seem to be trying to associate me to an argument I didn't make, and one which is completely different from the one I made.

I also don't like how Bujaber backed off after you said this, as this is a bad argument because you

aren't correctly accounting for the number of scum in the game.

Those three person groups could easily be S vs W under Bujaber's argument rather than T vs S. It feels like he was using any excuse to get off a wagon he didn't feel was working.

VOTE: Bujaber

I think it's probably fairly good play. But it doesn't feel like the norm exactly. Does it really surprise you that people reacted to that? Like, I think i'm getting that your style of play is to after

every

thread of info hard, but I can't believe you've never had people being off put a little by just how hard you go at it.

Whether or not I'm used to people being offput by my play does nothing to suggest how often I find scum trying to claim that 'different' equates to 'scummy' nor how often I manage to catch them after doing so.

You spent a whole lot of words to avoid answering the question - you're basically admitting nothing I did actually was particularly scummy, yet are defending your right to attack it on a vague conceptual basis without being willing to say that you yourself found it suspect for xyz reasons.

Why is that?

This is a misrepresentation of the situation. It was not your play I even questioned, it had more to do with your reaction to people's surprise. I couldn't believe you'd never experienced that (you've still not answered this) and I thought you taking issue with that surprise seemed a bit feigned and artifical.

[Montosh]

Ok, the rest will have to wait until tonight.

[Montosh]

I think Buj's frustration with beef and his desre to not be lynch just because no one cares is very genuine. Townreading him for it.

Skitter - what I don't understand is that you're immediately attacking Thor for making something binary and being able to win an argument. Can you please explain your thought process behind that?
Aside from that, I don't think I have much to contribute. Life is hitting me hard.

Eh, scum can just as easily be frustrated with a wagon. I don't get this fascination with frustration as a towntell that some people seem to have, everyone has differing emotional tolerances. And survivalism is most certainly not a towntell at all. Scum do not want to be lynched, often more than town, since it better furthers their win condition.

I feel you on life. However, thor has made essentially the exam same argument and posed the exam same question to skitter on multiple occasions I believe. Why do you feel the need to repeat what's already been gone through? I feel like we ought to be leaving the thor vs skitter clusterfuck behind imo.

Somebody asked me about the wolf accusation and not generic scum. It's because scum don't have NK they don't have anything to hurry for.

Scum usually want to hurry. Night kill or no a quick lynch benefits scum because:

a) It tends to hit town, unless there are compelling reasons to lynch someone based on night actions or something
b) Town gain less info from the shorter day

I agree that, on the whole, werewolves probably have a greater incentive to end the day quickly, but it's certain by no means unique to them, even in this setup.

Also, I'm going to do this;

VOTE: skitter

Until he can describe how he isn't calling me scum for scumhunting.

Not even that far into catching up and I stumble upon this scumclaim. Too easy.
VOTE: Thor665

Umm... what? Where's the scumclaim?

She did call out BuJabar for saying that exactly one of the two of you is scum in 181, which is a similar sort of thing.

I can agree very loosely with that - but *literally every debate in the game is about people having a disagreement over something*.
Like, just now this second, you and I are disagreeing.
She and I are disagreeing.
BuJaber and you are disagreeing.
If this is an actual scumtell she has she should be hitting reactions off of it literally constantly.
That's why she had to reinvent it to 'you did it in a certain more forceful way' to try to distance from the reality I had pointed out about this.

Does that not twig you at all?
It's twigging the hell out of me, and I don't see any way I'm reading it wrong.

it had more to do with your reaction to people's surprise.

Can you quote my reaction and maybe explain why it's strange?

Half of the posts in this game have essentially been you going after people hard for every single post. First with Paradox and to a greater extent, and more annoyingly due to the sheer length of it, with skitter. Like, you seem intent on just keeping this going on and on. You two are just arguing for the sake of arguing, but it doesn't feel like either of you have said anything new since the first few pages, yet this has eaten up a good portion of the game despite the fact that I really don't think there's anything here.

This is not just directed at you, skitter ought to have probably let this cool down for a bit by now and get on to other things. But you're the worse culprit because you just keep going. The only time anything seems to be moving in a different direction was those few days when you weren't posting, but while you're here it gobbles most of the attention up.

Now maybe what bothers me about you is that I just can't get a ping off of you. I can imagine a town motivation to be thorough and explore every thread of info, and I can see a scum motivation to deliberately obfuscate and prevent any meaningful reads from being parsed out, at least while people try avoid this whole clusterfuck of an argument, which seems to be the majority approach. Given your level of play, I don't believe either play is beyond you.

Given that, maybe just back off from this? Like seriously, are you going to get anything more from this thing with skitter right now?

@Fanta - considering your personal vote count, why did you get off a wagon with 4 votes to get on one with 1 vote? What's your current BuJabber take?

Actually, Fanta wanted to stay on BuJaber but I kinda stole our vote from them, so.

Mostly because the BuJaber wagon has built really quickly on a really flimsy "case" and I don't find any of his posts particularly scummy, so.

Also, I vote who I think is scummy, not who's most likely to get lynched. Only scum would want to stay on big flimsy wagons and hope they get to Lynch.

My only concern with Bujaber is how quickly the wagon developed, which normally makes me feel like scum involvement on day 1. But given the multiball nature of the setup, that doesn't really say much about Bujaber being town or not.

I think given his series of pretty bad posts and behaviour, it's not the worst lynch right now.

[Montosh]

Half of the posts in this game have essentially been you going after people hard for every single post. First with Paradox and to a greater extent, and more annoyingly due to the sheer length of it, with skitter. Like, you seem intent on just keeping this going on and on. You two are just arguing for the sake of arguing, but it doesn't feel like either of you have said anything new since the first few pages, yet this has eaten up a good portion of the game despite the fact that I really don't think there's anything here.

This is not just directed at you, skitter ought to have probably let this cool down for a bit by now and get on to other things. But you're the worse culprit because you just keep going. The only time anything seems to be moving in a different direction was those few days when you weren't posting, but while you're here it gobbles most of the attention up.

Now maybe what bothers me about you is that I just can't get a ping off of you. I can imagine a town motivation to be thorough and explore every thread of info, and I can see a scum motivation to deliberately obfuscate and prevent any meaningful reads from being parsed out, at least while people try avoid this whole clusterSmurf of an argument, which seems to be the majority approach. Given your level of play, I don't believe either play is beyond you.

You're covering a lot of ground here, so I'm going to hit them up in a roughly chronological order;

1. I note that you, despite writing three paragraphs, didn't actually explain what I'm doing that is strange in my reaction to 'people's surprise' - want to take another swing at that?

2. If you read our debate you will note that actually neither Skitter nor I are arguing for the sake of arguing,a nd are being very focused on assessing each other's scumminess with reasoning offered by both. That does require you to do more than skim it, but...

3. Why do you think there's nothing there considering there are 5 scum, we could be TvM, TvW, MvW, or even WvW or MvM. What makes you end up at TvT? Both you and Laser have said this now, and I kind of feel he was foolishly innocent to suggest it, but you just feel sheepy to his idea.

4. I'm sorry that me being gone makes the game feel like it's progressing to you - I would suggest that whatever you were doing then you could still be doing even when I'm here. What other conversations would you like to see at the forefront?

5. You then (after spending two paragraphs complaining about my play) admit that it could be good town play, and admit you can't get a clear read (despite making a few crass generalizations about what the conversation is about which shows me that you're skimming the debate and not even reading my short blurbs about it, which makes me sad as I'm doing that and even Skitter is tossing in tl:drs at the end of posts). If you'd like to try to figure out if it's obfuscation or scumhunting, i would suggest the best solution is to read it and see if it is indeed flim flam or if there is meat to the debate. If that isn't something you're willing or able to do, the next best option is offered in my #4 - direct some conversations yourself, or even in my #1 answering a conversation I also appear interested in that is not about Skitter.

See, here's my issue. You pull out quotes from my posts, so it seems like you must be reading them. Yet you choose to ignore what I'm actually saying. Your whole play is going after people who dare to take issue with you in any way and then misrepping them.

180 is a post where you misrepresent me. You act as if I have been going after you up to this point claiming you were scum, which was clearly not the case, and was more interested in how people were reacting to your posts I had liked your play up to that point because I thought it seemed thorough.

Then of course, you spent the latter half of your argument with skitter claiming that she somehow changed her argument mid game from "you forced an issue that didn't exist" to "you made a real issue which existed no matter what bigger than it actually needed to be and flooded the game with it, forcing people to choose one of you as scum", despite that seeming to be what she was saying the whole time.

Not to mention your consistent attempts to make it seem like people are dodging questions.

I disagree that this debate has been useful for the last few pages. You're mostly going over the same ground.

In terms of there being "nothing", I meant in terms of the debate. One of you can still be scum and have a useless debate which doesn't lead to anything new.

Also, I said there could be town motivation for your play. I think it is bad town play either way at this point.

[Montosh]

Hi!
I was following the game since it started with the intention to sub-in whenever possible, but only to carry on with my "you were killed on N1" series.

Btw, I only unsubscribed the thread yesterday after I got bored with how slow this was going. I believe I was at page 9.

From what I can remember I had Beef as my top TR. I also had Town leans on Thor, N_M & TGP.

I only had two Scum leans, and -funnily enough- my own slot was one of them. The other one is Korina.

Because of my Scum lean on BuJaber I have had Town leans on Espeo. Fanta, wilky & Montosh, but now they're all back to null.

Any questions? None? Good!

Sorry about that N1 kill last game btw We weren't aiming for you! I would also re-direct wilky's question at you, since I can't figure this out either:

What's a soul read?

He ONLY popped out to say "yankee is scum" over and over again when he was scum. when he is town he still tunnels but adds "other reads". For example; here he has Montosh as a 2nd SR, and in that game he was tunneling Dino but also had Jay in his view, and later had Vax too. (He was correct about both Dino and Jay not being Town).

The only thing that may look suspicious here is him calling on the WWs to shoot Thor, which "could" be interpreted as him knowing Thor isn't a WW himself (i.e. N_M is a WW) OR N_M is Mafia and knows Thor not to be on the team. However, I', well used to N_M being his weird, so I -at least- want to keep him around for a couple of days before I reevaluate based on flips and associative tells.

In terms of NM's play here vs that game I was in(I can't speak for the other game), it seems like a distinction without a difference. I agree we should keep him around, as I think his play is pretty null at this point since it does conform to his meta from what I've been told. But I see nothing here for a townread.

UNVOTE:

While you get your bearings and go over stuff.

[Montosh]

So, my entire thing about that, is that I honestly have never seen town trying to set up arguments where they know the exact outcome. It seems like something mafia/wolf would do.

How would I know what the outcome would be?
You're, like Skitter, accussing me of being a mindreader/master manipulator with zero evidence to support said claim, and then acting like it's a valid call.

@Korina - I knew the outcome would be you missing the question, but let's go with this a second time.

@Korina - third time's the charm?

You said so yourself.

Also, I hardclaim Citizen rn. I'm a fucking citizen once again, and literally out of half the rolelist being non-citizen roles, I get citizen again. I really don't care if I'm ML'd d1, happens all the time, and idgaf tbh.

This whole post... just why? It's multiball with only 1 town PR, why'd you even say this? Half non-VT roles means... half VT. 50/50.

I'm feeling kinda like this is fake frustration.

[Montosh]

If you don't wanna get force-replaced, maybe don't tell people to fuck off.

There's no reason to get so worked up about it, Almost was making a pretty tame joke (which was, I would add, actually sympathetic to you).

[Montosh]

Not sure about Korina's little meltdown here and wether it is genuine or not. People seem to be leaving the wagon for it though which begs the question if a meltdown is all it takes to dispel the wagon on you how easy is this game going to be for scum...

The thing with Korina's reaction that's bothering me is that (excluding playing role-madness only) the most common role someone can roll is VT and by a large majority aswell and korina will know that so why get worked up when you roll the most common role most of the time.

Yeah this is essentially my thoughts on Korina as well. The whole thing seems like fake frustration to me. The only concern with it is that it seems like kinda an obvious lynch, and I tend to think that scum won't put themselves in that position. But there's maybe a bit too much WIFOM in that.

180 is a post where you misrepresent me. You act as if I have been going after you up to this point claiming you were scum, which was clearly not the case, and was more interested in how people were reacting to your posts I had liked your play up to that point because I thought it seemed thorough.

I am accurately pointing out that you claimed there was some issue with me reacting with surprise to the reactions to my initial play.
This *is* something you have said.
This is *not* a misrep.
And you *still* haven't managed to explain where you even get the idea it happened - can we try for the third time?

Are you actually kidding me? Your entire play for

the whole game

has been based on how people reacted to that initial vote and the argument that ensued has eaten up the entire. Yet you continue to lie about what people are saying, both about skitter and I.

You're acting as if I haven't answered your question. You are blatantly lying about our discussions here. This level of misrepresentation and obfuscation is scummy af.

VOTE: Thor

Please state, clearly and succinctly, without embellishment, what question precisely you wish me to answer. I don't think there's anything you can point to which I have not answered sufficiently over these last few pages.

@Pepper - still waiting on an answer about the wagon speed. Are you intentionally ducking that, or should I just keep asking?

You can keep wasting your time, like you seem to be so set on doing.

So you're whole read on Skitter has changed based purely on Skitter having different reads than you??

Aw, blatant misrep.. How cute!

-Pepper

How was wilky misrepping you? It really does seem like you voted wilky based on a read list of skitter's that you didn't agree with.

[Montosh]

Laser Guy is probably scum

This actually needs explanation because that is my strongest townread.

Why? All he's done is buddied thor from what I can see.

[Montosh]

Early on D1 scum are less likely to pile on any wagon at all. Both scum factions would be afraid of pushing one of the other faction, and especially so the Mafia (since only the WWs have a kill). If BuJaber was a WW it WOULD have been likely all 4 on the wagon were Town bc Mafia would wait to join in late (more likely in the 4th/5th/6th slot) and also late in the sense of "closer to deadline", so they don't appear like they're pushing it.

If BuJaber was Mafia then it's more likely a WW was on the 4-palyers wagon, but only one.

Since Scum didn't know either, then I would say Mafia are less likely to have been on the wagon still, while it is more likely to have had a WW on it.

THE BLOODY QUESTION IS WHICH ONE? And I don't know the answer to that, so everybody is null until further notice.

Now you may continue to converse with yourself here, cuz I'm starting to feel like I'm talking to a friggin' brick wall, just like it was in our previous game (and THANK GOD you're not a Vig in here and I'm not a BG, or you would have shot exactly the one townie I decided to protect who ALSO was the Mafia target, resulting in my kill, raising suspicion on them, helping the fake claimed RB shade another Townie, and outing yourself on the very next day, resulting in a total of 4 town deaths).

Mate, I would be hard SRing you now if I didn't see your play in that game first hand. You REALLY need to stop tunneling and start reading and evaluating stuff. Like, if you're scum here you're a likely NK (if you're Mafia), likely investigation target (if you're a WW), and if you're Town you're a detriment to Town regardless because you're likely to BOTH draw the NK AND the investigation, let alone the (mis)lynch if you're still alive in 2 days.

Sorry to bring back the memory of that game, but really .. you need to chill.

Given how scummy Bujaber seemed to many (and their pretty awful posts), I don't see how much alignment info you're going to get off of a middle of the day wagon, pre-flip.

And that's the ahmished tell

What is? What post??

Also, @everybody: THIS is the game I'm referring to in my conversations. It should make a good read for you all, since it included me, Esp, Skitter, Montosh and N_M all in the same game. Montosh & N_M were Scum there, while I, Esp & Skitter were Town.

My main request is that you all go ISO Skitter and compare his arguments to those he is using here and see if there's a significant difference. I won't even say "reads" because we don't have any flips here yet.

You can also compare N_M's play in that game to this one and see if you agree/disagree with me, and while at it also ISO Esp and compare to his play here. ISOing me and Montosh is an optional bonus if you like, but it's Skitter that I do want you all to look at first. Any takers?

Well I was in that game. Her posts seem pretty similar to that game. I think that metareading with only one game as a reference at this point is pretty useless. If you think there's a difference, please point out some specific posts that seem very different.

The only main difference I see is that she seems a bit more aggressive in this one, but I don't think that's really a scumtell at all.

You were also a claimed PR from like page 2 that game.

There was a time I was going to shoot you night 1.

Thank you for proving my point that you're utterly bad even if you're town. I really appreciate it.

Well his point is a valid one. You were a claimed PR in that game, so people were pretty hesitant to lynch you on that basis and then you died N1. The same doesn't really apply here, so there's no reason to expect the reactions to your posting style to be the same, and any votes on that count come off as kinda opportunistic.

Quick post from me before I go back to homework:
Esp, can you please not make like 50 short posts one after another please? Thanks.

I also feel like Almost's frustration is genuine. I still am town-reading that slot.

Ok, back to homework.

Can we seriously get over frustration as a town-tell? I'm really sick of it. It's not, and has never been, indicative of town. It's indicative of people who aren't having a good game. Given that scum have way more motivation to avoid being lynched, I consider it more of a scum tell if I must assign some read to it.

Btw, when I flip green, would you buy that I really did believe I was genuine and not faking? Or would you still think I was faking the shock??

I automatically don't like anyone who says something along the lines of "you'll see when I flip green". You're just doing more of what people found suspicious about your opening, talking about your alignment. People don't do that unless they're role claiming.

[Montosh]

Paradox is a weird one there's not really anyone it implicates or points in a direction too.

This is wolf

I wouldn't be caught dead using wolf as a general term for scum

wilky killed TGP hunting for mafia, now he's deflecting

It seems way more likely that they killed paradox because he didn't give off much in terms of associations, as wilky and A50 alluded to.

What I don't much like is the lurky and sheeping quality that exists in Beefster/Laserguy, and wilky to a lesser extent, not to mention this:

Votecount 1.9

(3)

Dr Fanta - voted by: wilky, Beefster, LaserGuy.

(3)

Almost50 - voted by: Espeonage, TheGoldenParadox, skitter30.

(3)

wilky - voted by: Dr Fanta, Not_Mafia, Korina.

(2)

skitter30 - voted by: Thor665, Almost50.

(1)

Thor665 - voted by: Montosh.

With 12 players alive, 7 votes are needed for a majority. Only 6 votes are needed for a no lynch.

Day 1 ends in (expired on 2018-03-01 17:30:00)

That that pairing was the basis for the Fanta wagon.

But Fanta actually went after wilky for no reason, other than the fact that he was high up on skitter's readlist and they didn't like the readlist, which seems totally bonkers to me. Wilky had some reason to vote for them.

LaserGuy and Beefster's votes were less reasonable. LaserGuy mostly voted to pressure people into consolidating votes onto wagons near deadlines, which rarely ends well for town. Beefster was just blatantly sheeping. I'd put money on scum there.

VOTE: LaserGuy

[Montosh]

Nope

[Montosh]

Why would you disrupt the prophecy? You must now be lynched to rebalance the universe and evade the rapture.

VOTE: Montosh

The prophecy was, as most are, intentionally vague and open to double meanings for plot reasons. As it turns out, Seer wilky will out WW thor on post 935.

[Montosh]

So Paradox, after his short argument with Thor, spent most of the game on wilky, then switching to A50 for a while and then finally Fanta near the end of the day. This suggests some possibilities to me:

1) WW aren't worried about reducing the pool of people on the Fanta wagon. This suggests that they weren't on that wagon, and that it was consequently more mafia-backed.

2) wilky and A50 to a lesser extent would need to be pretty bold as WW to take Paradox out. That doesn't preclude them being mafia obviously.

I know I might be over analysing night kills here but I'm also just laying out my thoughts for later, especially when we have more info. WW could have also killed him just because his death would give the least info in terms of interactions. Even if that was a reason however, I don't think it makes the above irrelevant to the thought process.

[Montosh]

I also find amazing that we keep on taking bouts at each other and nobody ever cares to intervene. The most that people have done is pop on, place a vote and take a nose dive into oblivion. It looks like both Scum factions are happy with the status quo and want it to go on and on and on. Did you ever consider that possibility??

This isn't a bad point. I don't much like how you two are going at it without anyone else really getting involved. But if that concerns you, maybe you should do some scumhunting rather than just tunnelling skitter.

As to your previous point, I agree to an extent. WW do have less reason to go after the Mafia, as they have no NK. But, the mafia is still an informed minority and therefore a greater danger to the WW than town. So I still think they'd go after them.

I don't like how people are hopping onto this wagon without giving any reasoning. And I don't see why you would, as scum, try to link skitter to a scum!Fanta flip before knowing their alignment.

I would, however, like to also bring you back to something you said in Day 1, that if Fanta flipped town you'd reconsider your reads on skitter and thor. I know skitter also asked you this, but I haven't seem you really reconsider anything much so far. You mostly seem to be fighting with skitter.

[Montosh]

Paradox is a weird one there's not really anyone it implicates or points in a direction too.

This is wolf

I agree with NM here. I don't like this post by wilky.

Why though? Beyond what's already been said, the paradox kill doesn't really tell us much. Why would WW!wilky kill paradox when it would clearly cast suspicion on him?

LaserGuy and Beefster's votes were less reasonable. LaserGuy mostly voted to pressure people into consolidating votes onto wagons near deadlines, which rarely ends well for town. Beefster was just blatantly sheeping. I'd put money on scum there.

VOTE: Dr Fanta

Two days left. We need to start consolidating our votes.

Why'd you pick Dr Fanta here to consolidate votes on?

There were five wagons at the time: You, Thor, wilky, Dr. Fanta, and A50. I had Town on you and Thor, so I wasn't going to vote there. I was suspicious of everyone on the wilky wagon and didn't want to sheep them. It was a toss-up for me between A50 and Dr. Fanta, and my scumread on Fanta was stronger.

I don't see why a town on thor when he spent all of yesterday deliberately misrepping arguments.

Forgiving that, I think the rest of your reasoning is sound, especially concerning the wilky wagon.

UNVOTE:

But Fanta actually went after wilky for no reason, other than the fact that he was high up on skitter's readlist and they didn't like the readlist, which seems totally bonkers to me. Wilky had some reason to vote for them.

This is a weird interpretation. Wilky didn't seem too bothered by Fanta voting for him. He didn't like Fanta's read on skitter flip-flopping based on her reads list, and didn't like Fanta accusing me of active lurking. See 331 and 332.

Right sure, but the read on skitter's list was directly related to Fanta's vote on wilky. My point is more that the whole situation was more connected, and that Fanta kinda got themselves lynched to some extent.

[Montosh]

VOTE: Beefster

The other one on my list. Why the Fanta vote (since you didn't really get into it much Day 1) and why the votes without comment? You either spend the day sheeping other people or doing this. Care to give us some of your thoughts?

[Montosh]

I don't see why a town on thor when he spent all of yesterday deliberately misrepping arguments.

In case it wasn't obvious, I would start a Thor wagon if I thought it would become a thing this time around.

I'm on board for a thor lynch still. Nothing's changed from Day 1, other than thor seems to be quieter now and isn't really saying much in regards to what others are posting, which is unusual.

[Montosh]

vote: tchill

Hard policy or I replace out.

What's wrong with tchill?

[Montosh]

Could I get a link to whatever game you're referencing?

[Montosh]

I'll point out that the last game I played was with NM as scum partners, and in that game he spent the entire time tunnelling one slot and managed to fly under the radar. Similar to now.

The only difference is that in that game he went after a much more lynchbait slot than this time. Hard to meta after 1 game, but that was my experience.

[Montosh]

But his name is NM and it does matter. If it were most anyone else I'd be pushing that lynch. But the meta is relevant.

[Montosh]

3/3 on reads during my catch up.

I said laser was town. You and bujabar was scum.

I was right about laser and bujabar but I doubt I got all 3 reads right which would mean I know believe you're town.

Yes it is multi ball and I don't have any experience differentiating fictional motivation and how to hunt with that in mind.

"I was right on two reads, so you definitely can't trust my third read"..... this is a thought process that is very weird. I can barely get one read right usually :/

@Not_Mafia What is the case on wilky? I haven't seen anything from you on that, you've just been tunnelling him all game. How is this any different than the other game we played?

[Montosh]

Also going to

VOTE: Beefster

Until they can answer this.

VOTE: Beefster

The other one on my list. Why the Fanta vote (since you didn't really get into it much Day 1) and why the votes without comment? You either spend the day sheeping other people or doing this. Care to give us some of your thoughts?

[Montosh]

So... anyone gonna explain why we're just blindly sheeping NM's vote, which I will remind you, is on a slot that he has been tunnelling since close to RVS?

[Montosh]

So... anyone gonna explain why we're just blindly sheeping NM's vote, which I will remind you, is on a slot that he has been tunnelling since close to RVS?

[Montosh]

You'd actually be a wonderful candidate to answer this.

[Montosh]

Not_Mafia, I choose you!

[Montosh]

I'm cool with all of that. Yeah, this is multiball so for sure there can be scum on scum action in play, so even if NM is scum it doesn't necessarily discredit a wilky wagon.

But I'm working under the assumption that NM can't scumhunt orders of magnitude better than I and determine scum just by looking at them for a couple seconds.

So my question is mainly, what is scummy about wilky beyond NM saying he's scummy?

I'll answer one thing, there's a lurky quality to him that could very well ping scum. My concern is that there's very little resistance to this, everyone just seems be blindly sheeping without adding anything. If we lynch him and he flips town, then I feel like we've significantly reduced the amount of info we can gain because no one is posting their thoughts.

Am I the only one that feels this consensus has a fake, scummy vibe to it?

[Montosh]

skitter
tchill
Esp
Thor
wilky
N_M
Beef

{A50, ??, ??} - Thor??, tchill/beef NOT skitter, wilky

{??, ??} - Esp/beef, could be skitter, probably not if wilky is WW.

I can't sort N_M. Pretty much a diceroll right now.

I'm pretty confident on scum!thor, a lot less on mafia!thor. I'm having a hard time seeing him hard defend his partner.

[Montosh]

VOTE: wilky

Read through his ISO, yeah definitely went after low-hanging fruit. I'll give this one a go.

[Montosh]

I didn't think this day was gonna go anywhere honestly.

[Montosh]

You were very persuasive.

I don't see why I needed to wait longer when I'd already changed my mind. I saw the arguments, went through his ISO, considered the mechanics of who I thought it could be, and though "Yeah I guess this makes the most sense".

Given the rationale involved, I see very little wilky could have done to change anything, and so decided to end the day.

I think you're trying very hard to make a big deal about it. It's telling.

[Montosh]

I don't consider it a lolhammer btw.

[Montosh]

I think we should leash Montosh, gives us a lynch and an NK to hit a mafia, Montosh is forced to aim for mafia regardless of the whether the lynch is on town or mafia as 1-1-1 is a mafia win

This is not a suggestion that town makes. This is a suggestion the last werewolf makes when he's worried about lynching his fake WW read, because he knows shit will hit the fan when I don't flip WW. The fact that thor opposes this makes me think he's not WW.

I'm now pretty certain that NM is the WW. But if we lynch him, we're in 3 town v 2 mafia Lylo tomorrow.

If we lynch mafia, then we end the day with 3 town v 1 mafia v 1 WW. So we either go into day 5 with 3 town v 1 WW or 2 town v 1 mafia v 1 WW, depending on who NM hits. The first situation is Mylo, the second is Mylo unless we hit WW (who I think is NM).

The second situation is marginally better than the first, so we probably need to hit mafia. Thor is, as previously stated, probably not a WW, but I'm having a hard time thinking that he'd hard defend his mafia partner, so I gotta say I'm less convinced of scum!thor. I'm not going after that slot for the moment then.

That leaves tchill, beef, and Esp. All of these guys have basically been either lurking or sheeping to some extent. One, possibly both mafia are in here.

[Montosh]

Neither beef or thor were on the wilky wagon. Why would mafia them not vote there? It seemed like a pretty inevitable lynch anyways. Maybe one mafia stays off the wagon, but I'm sure a mafia(and possibly two) were on the wagon. So...

tchill or Esp.

Both went after A50 to some extent (tchill after he replaced in, korina said nothing on A50), so one of them is bussing. I could see it being either of them. Tchill could have bussed after he replaced in and saw that A50 was going down, and Esp could have been bussing because he thought BuJ was a liability who would probably get himself lynched, and he needed distance.

[Montosh]

Thor's point is a good one, if we lynch WW then we do have complete control of the kills. Ok so maybe lynch NM then. If we hit WW today, we are in Lylo tomorrow. If we hit mafia, we're probably in Mylo.

If I was sure of mafia, this'd be an easy choice. As it is, I'm more confident in my WW!NM read then any other read in this game right now. So we gotta ask, is MyLo better than Lylo? Only if we have no obvtown, and I don't think that we do. So as it stands, it's better to get Mylo, and therefore we probably ought to lynch mafia still, but I don't think lynching WW is out of the question, given that I've no high confidence mafia reads.

[Montosh]

If he's not WW, why push this dumb leash idea? It's obviously anti-town.

He could be mafia, but mafia have no way to know that I'm not WW, and they'd want a WW lynched. Ok, even if NM is mafia, I think that Esp or tchill is probably his partner. Maybe tchill sheeps his partner outright, maybe not, and there's too much WIFOM to sort through with that at this point. Esp isn't here though, and lurkiness is scummy. So with that and by process of elimination.

VOTE: Espeonage

You're probably bad.

[Montosh]

Right, but why am I WW? I would have cast less suspicion by not hammering, and looking back that probably would have been a better decision, but I felt like the day wasn't going to be useful any more, so why wait?

And why would I then kill skitter? That's bound to cast suspicion on me.

I do not think it is beyond NM to bus his partner from RVS. You think he's obvtown now.

If it's not NM, then it's probably beef. If you or Esp are scum then you're probably mafia.

[Montosh]

Ok think about it though, NM was making posts against wilky from RVS (interesting random choice), but he went along with other lynches and didn't seem that interested in pushing a wilky lynch until it became sorta obvious where the wind was blowing.

Though wait, how did NM lynch mafia? He wasn't the main one pushing A50.

[Montosh]

Skitter was preparing for a case against me as WW if wilky flipped WW. Killing her would cast suspicion on me, and I'm not gonna go so deep into WIFOM to think otherwise.

We don't have a couple days. Best thing to do is probably to kill mafia, but I think beef is more likely to be WW than mafia, based off votes and elimination.

[Montosh]

I've said from the beginning that we probably should Lynch mafia. I can't follow the rest of your plan since that requires to me to have a night kill. I also think that beef is more likely to be werewolf than mafia.

[Montosh]

Again, I said that from the beginning of the day. Yes.

[Montosh]

I don't know with enough certainty who the wolf is right now to not do that.

[Montosh]

I'm not a wolf. I'm leaning tchill/Esp as mafia.

Thor, what do you think about the skitter kill?

[Montosh]

He's not wrong. My desire to lynch mafia largely stems from the fact that I don't know for sure who scum are.

If you think you're sure you've outed a WW, you should lynch him.

I'm not a wolf. I'm leaning tchill/Esp as mafia.

Thor, what do you think about the skitter kill?

My presumption was to set me up - Skitter's last claim yesterday was that I should be lynched if she died.

That was my thought as well.

[Montosh]

Would you rather lynch wolf or mafia?

That's a loaded question.

It's not, have you read this day?

Seriously though can you answer this question? It's kinda the discussion today.

Who's scum?

Montosh is the only one I'm super sure of. I could see any of the other four of you as scum, but I'd have to take a closer look.

I also just realized that there are only 6 players left.

I think TChill has properly redeemed the Korina slot, so the remaining scum is in {Thor, Not_Mafia, Espeonage}

or perhaps a better format: (from most likely to be scum to least)
- Montosh
- Thor
- Not_Mafia
- Espeonage
- Tchill

But seriously. Get those votes off me. I'm town.

I don't think tchill is town, like at all. Neither is Esp. They're probably both mafia. Meanwhile, the people in your top two scumslots are people who hammered their supposed partner and hard-defended their supposed partner and then stayed off the wagon. Both your big scumreads put themselves in the open like that?

VOTE: wilky

Read through his ISO, yeah definitely went after low-hanging fruit. I'll give this one a go.

Looks like a reluctant bus.

VOTE: Montosh

It's a sheepable wagon.

You say you're gonna ISO me and then come back a few posts later, quoting my

hammer post

of all things to justify sheeping one of the two main wagons of the day, which is the one not on you.

[Montosh]

Why were you defending wilky, did you think he was town?

Is this question directed at me? I thought the wagon on him was scummy. Mostly cause people weren't posting reasoning and blindly sheeping you. I did not think he was likely to be scum.

I thought this was bad, and I wanted people to at least explain what they thought was scummy about wilky. I got skitter to come out and explain the reasoning, I looked at it and it seemed to fit.

[Montosh]

N_M, why do you think beef is mafia. I can only see wolf!beef as a possibility.

[Montosh]

I don't. Can you explain at least a little? Rather than just making the assertion.

[Montosh]

Right but that's a general scumtell. Why mafia specifically?

[Montosh]

@thor I don't think Esp's logic post is particularly scummy, it's easy enough to get lost while just considering future scenarios in your head. I think that he tried to justify it with a dumb excuse like "I forgot mafia can kill" is somewhat scummy. Just sorta reinforces my tchill/Esp mafia grouping.

[Montosh]

Why should I be trying to sort them out? If you want to know, I'm guessing Montosh is the wolf due to wilky associatives.

Bold stance

[Montosh]

I mean, beef has mostly been a general scumread up until now, for behaviour in posting and in wagon sheeping. But I had him more pegged as a mafia with people (like laser) who flipped town so it forced me to re-evaluate that. His behaviour Day 3, namely starting off voting wilky but just melting off that wagon once it really became serious, suggested a possibility of being a wolf. But what makes me hesitate on that read is mostly that he seems perfectly willing to wagon me, when wolf!beef would know perfectly well that shit would hit the fan once I didn't flip as a werewolf. Now that is further moderated by the fact that he only came out with his vote on me after it became clear he was another possibly wagon. Wolf!beef would obviously prefer anyone else, even if it made his life difficult Day 5.

Not_Mafia is mostly in my wolf read list for the leash a wolf idea, which I consider to be pretty bad from a town perspective, for most of the same reasons as outlined above. I see it as a pro-wolf idea because it makes someone else seem obvwolf without having to actually flip them yet. I did initially agree with the notion of hitting mafia, mostly because I had strong mafia reads than wolf reads, but it doesn't make sense from the perspective of someone with a strong wolf read. Now, my read on N_M is moderated by the fact that he did tunnel wilky from early on, but I really can see that being a distancing bus that plays into his tunnelling meta.

So my wolf pool is NM first, followed fairly closely by beef.

I've got a bit of a townread on you for a few reasons. I have a hard time buying that you hard-defended your mafia partner when they (A50) seemed a pretty good shot for the lynch, and then stayed off the wagon. And also that you stayed off the wilky wagon. So I'm not super convinced on mafia!thor. I consider wolf!thor more likely, except for that skitter kill, which screams trying to set you up, given that skitter outright said at the end of the day to lynch you if she died. It could still be you trying to WIFOM us out of lynching you, but I think it definitely reduces the probability.

That kinda leaves Esp and tchill as mafia by elimination. There's a bit more than that, Esp pushed the A50 wagon at the beginning of Day 2, but ended up melting off of it towards the end.

Now tchill is also agreeing with N_M's idea, which I think is pro-wolf, so there's some uncertainty there, but there's incentive for mafia to agree, especially if they don't know who the wolf is with any certainty.

My hesitation with beef largely boils down to this. If we lynch town we're pretty much screwed. But I think we're pretty screwed if we don't lynch wolf, because then tomorrow the wolf will have an easy time of passing me off as the wolf and lynching me, especially if they can convince the mafia that I'm the wolf.

So we need to gamesolve. I was hoping to get some mafia pings to help with that, rather than just focusing on wolf. Beef isn't a bad wolf lynch, but I still think N_M is better, and we can't afford to screw it up today.

[Montosh]

vote: tchill

Hard policy or I replace out.

Damn it. Going through the thread and found this. Given that the Korina/tchill slot was already on a lot of people's lynch lists, this seems like something that reasonably could have caused a lynch, were it not for the A50 wagon. I don't see this as something Esp does to his partner. That kinda screws with my tchill/Esp mafia theory.

N_M seems like such an unlikely wolf to me though, if that was a bus it did a brilliant job distancing him. That feels like he legit wanted that flip.

I sorta agree, but I'm having a hard time reconciling that with his terrible ideas today.

[Montosh]

I'm not sure that wilky is scum.

Why do you refuse to sort anyone else in a game with much more mafia members?

In response to N_M's Day 3 vote on wilky right off the bat.

VOTE: wilky

If I was right about laser and bujabar I doubt I was 3/3 on reads.

I'm assuming I was wrong about you being scum.

And then votes wilky only a few posts later, with the pretty terrible reasoning that N_M is town because he can't possibly be 3/3 on reads, and so he should sheep N_M.

I see

wilky/beefster/skitter/Montosh

What's funny is I would only argue beef in that whole group. I wouldn't even argue it that hard tbh.

Argues that only beef is scummy from this grouping, despite the fact that he is currently voting wilky, a member of that group.

I recall that I tried to get you to explain your reasoning yesterday, but you weren't all that specific. Why the turn on wilky?

[Montosh]

Bc montosh was not active in lynching a50.

Agreed, he was active in a pretty robust defense though. Why do you think wolves would have opted to not defend at that stage?

I sorta agree, but I'm having a hard time reconciling that with his terrible ideas today.

With N_M my big advice is to try to assess the motivations of the actions, not the logic.
I still kinda don't think that looks like a bus.
I can't personally remember his bussing meta, but I tend to presume it's not near tunneling for multiple phases.

I can see wolf motivation though. Recall that N_M did come a bit late to the party (no fault of his own, didn't get a daystart PM). But before he arrived wilky had got into a bit of early conflict with some people (laser and yourself iirc).

But yeah it does require good foresight, hence my relative uncertainty compared to before.

[Montosh]

I wish you would stop just asserting things.

[Montosh]

Without any reasoning.

[Montosh]

I was arguing that only beef could be town from that whole group. As in I agreed with the rest of his scum reads but would argue beef being scum.

So you were scumreading wilky, skitter and myself at that point, and soft scumreading beef?

I pretty much just said screw it and voted wilky to help sort NM. NM was right so now I believe NM is town. NM I shouldn't be killed by the wolf.

Yet I am the wolf for essentially the same actions?

[Montosh]

My conclusions:

• I could see Esp wolf due to RVS vote on wilky and reluctant vote on him yesterday, but
  I'd still bet more on Montosh being the wolf
  .

Why?

I think Tchill is town for redeeming the slot. Korina's frustration could have been genuine. Immature and unsportsmanlike, but genuine.

As a response to this, i'll quote an earlier post of mine:

Eh, scum can just as easily be frustrated with a wagon. I don't get this fascination with frustration as a towntell that some people seem to have, everyone has differing emotional tolerances. And survivalism is most certainly not a towntell at all. Scum do not want to be lynched, often more than town, since it better furthers their win condition.

[Montosh]

Well tbf I didn't post the rest of that day because it ended pretty quick at the end and they weren't active days for me. (I'm most active at work.)

And after the A50 wagon which I kinda spearheaded withoutbeing on it, and chil''s support in that, I kinda figured I'd been brash. I've done some dick moves as scum and I was kinda holding a grudge for a loss I felt was undeserved.

Also you are kinda glossing over the fact that I have beef and chill close in my lynch pool for ww. I don't see chill as maf after the way he pushed A50 without any obligation but I can see ww.

Well I didn't see you say much about chill before this post. Actually you seem to be under the assumption that we have some way of knowing your opinions without actually posting them.

I'll ask you a question then, who is in your mafia lynch pool and why?

Also Thor, sell me on this Montosh turnaround because I don't see it.

The activity under the pressure at the start of the day feels reminisce of BuJ, and as the pressure dissipates, the play quality goes up. Does that not count as scum points instead of the opposite?

That's not what happened at all. The pressure on Bujaber did not dissipate because the play quality suddenly increased from him, it dissipated because A50 replaced into the slot and people let up for a bit because they didn't feel like lynching someone who just replaced in.

The reasons for my increase in posting Day 4 are as follows:

1. We have fewer people left and flips from both factions, and so I feel like I have a better idea of how to sort people and gamesolve without shooting around in the dark a lot.
2. I've been off school for a week, granting me some more time.

Now, I'm fine with you dismissing my increase is posting, but what exactly places me in your mafia pool?

If it came down to beef or montosh I think montosh is the way to go.

Effort shouldn't be his saving grace.

VOTE: beef

So I'm the better lynch, but you're going to vote beef. Are you even going to care a little about consistency?

Why am I a wolf? Explain it to me. Give me details and quotes. Actually put some opinions out there rather than sheeping.
More importantly, there's pretty much a consensus that lynching the WW is a good idea. Do you disagree with it? If so, why are you not voting your wolf read?

Here's one explanation. You're a wolf, and you really don't want to lynch your 'wolf read' because then all the people saying I'm obvwolf are going to start re-evaluating everything, including you. Why is this not the case?

@thor I'll get to your question.

[Montosh]

I was arguing that only beef could be town from that whole group. As in I agreed with the rest of his scum reads but would argue beef being scum.

So you were scumreading wilky, skitter and myself at that point, and soft scumreading beef?

I pretty much just said screw it and voted wilky to help sort NM. NM was right so now I believe NM is town. NM I shouldn't be killed by the wolf.

Yet I am the wolf for essentially the same actions?

@tchill Please answer these q

[Montosh]

I was arguing that only beef could be town from that whole group. As in I agreed with the rest of his scum reads but would argue beef being scum.

So you were scumreading wilky, skitter and myself at that point, and soft scumreading beef?

I pretty much just said screw it and voted wilky to help sort NM. NM was right so now I believe NM is town. NM I shouldn't be killed by the wolf.

Yet I am the wolf for essentially the same actions?

@tchill Please answer these questions. I'd specifically like references to posts where you mention any of these people as scumreads before the posts I referenced originally.

I'd especially like this with regards to wilky, and for you to answer my question "why the turn on wilky?", when you had seemed inclined to defend him and go after N_M not long before.

I would also appreciate you expanding upon why those actions clear you as WW but similar actions indict me as WW.

[Montosh]

Sorry about 1018, thought I hit preview.

[Montosh]

@Montosh - semi-crazy theory but I'm feeling it right now; Tchill is the wolf, he's mafia hunting, ducked explaining why, has actually kind of avoided voting you all phase despite calling you the wolf. What are your thoughts on that case and would you move off Espeo to pursue it?

I'm definitely feeling it to some extent. Tchill has mostly been a general scumread, but he pings me as a wolf specifically for a few reasons:

1. Going along with leash werewolf idea. I thought it made N_M scummy as a WW for proposing it, but if it's within N_M to propose an idea like that as town, then I could see ww!chill sheeping a fairly pro-WW idea like that.
2. His interactions with wilky Day 3. He appeared to be on the verge of defending wilky but then pretty suddenly switches his stance and sheeps N_M's vote.
3. I've got Esp as a mafia read at this point, and I think the whole policy replace out if we don't lynch affair makes it a lot less likely that they're the same alignment.

A lot of this is conditional on tchill being able to answer my (and other's) questions and actually describe his own stance

[Montosh]

This game is dragging on a bit. I'd like a response from tchill to all of the above questions though first.

[Montosh]

I'll take a look at those posts tonight.

[Montosh]

You can always depend on Not_Mafia the lolhammer.

*fingers crossed*

[Montosh]

My wolf reads were awful... at least we figured out it was thor in the end lol

[Montosh]

Thanks for hosting mutant! It was a fun game! Maybe I'll get to be a townie at some point lol.

(And hopefully we'll play again at some point)

[Montosh]

Wow, wasn't really expecting mafia!montosh or mafia!espeonage. You both played super well

Thanks mutant!

Honestly for most of the game I thought you were a WW trying to buddy me lol.

[Montosh]

I mean, math's game was my first in a few years (and my first scum game that) so I'm still learning how to be scum I guess.

I do kinda wish our Day 1 push on thor had worked out though

[Montosh]

Good reads.