Micro 793 Double Investigation I (Endgame)

[Mathdino]

Lemme phrase it this way.

If you come to the conclusion that two players are of the same alignment, and lynch them, it's more likely they're both town than it is that they're both scum. So by lynching both of them, if they flip town, you've ensured a 1/6 chance of town winning in the end.
Specifically, from your point of view, there's a 1/4 chance of insta-win, and 3/4 chance you're lynching both town, coming out to 3/8 in the end.

If on the other hand you come to the conclusion that two players are of OPPOSITE alignments, lynching them creates 3/4 odds.

So assuming your associations are 100% accurate, lynching same alignment produces 38% town EV, while lynching opposite alignment produces 75%.

[BuJaber]

Yes I see your point.

I'm now thinking you/red is good specifically for that reason.

VOTE: math and red

[Mathdino]

And I'm not nearly sure enough on Red to warrant that.

VOTE: BuJaber, NSG

[Mathdino]

Btw at the very least if you guys decide to lynch me at all, I should have the right to select the other lynchee, considering that puts the burden on me to make sure scum still dies on D1.

[BuJaber]

I'm fine with that.

I'm good with any combination of us 3.
Me/you
You/red
Red/me

Whoever lives can win.

[Mathdino]

You're literally proposing lynching the only 3 people here.

[BuJaber]

Yes because otherwise you get shot with anybody else.

Like if vij or nsg is town and you vote one of us with them we get shot but we sort someone unimportant. Basically is the info on nsg worth losing red or me or you etc.? I'd rather pit us against each other and have the survivor break the game open.

[Mathdino]

I feel like the risk of lynching 2 active townies is way too high to justify not lynching someone who is literally not present.

If we can get to the point where we can lock one person as town, then random lynching elsewhere gives us a 70% chance of hitting scum today. Considering Vijarada/NSG are basically random (given that they haven't posted yet), those aren't bad odds FMPOV, or from anyone's POV.

[Mathdino]

Like I'm considering lynching you/Red but I also think that would be a dumbass move considering it really feels like at least one of you is town, and there's the possibility of both town.

[BuJaber]

Okay then why not vij/nsg?

[Mathdino]

Just felt like playing the game a bit before just lynching both lurkers. Wanted to see you talk.

Read on GL?

[BuJaber]

He seems towny enough but for someone concerned with moving out of RVS he's gotten oddly quiet.

[BuJaber]

I need to go. I thought the catchups would take less time but I'm getting dragged in conversation and my boss won't be happy. If the lurkers vote don't end the day please.

[RedFlavor]

@mod vijarada and NSG are on prod

[Mathdino]

So on the assumption that at least one of Bujaber and Red are town (possibly both of them, dunno yet), Vijarada and NSG have a 2/9 = 22% chance of both being town.

VOTE: Vijarada and NSG

Those are fantastic odds.

GL, from your POV I think this logic holds. Buj and Red aren't scum together, and from your (town) POV, there are 9 possible scumteams left, only two of which include neither Vijarada nor NSG.

@Bujaber/Red: If you can rule out one scumteam outside NSG/Vij, same logic applies there too.

So yeah, I'm good with this. 11% chance we win outright, and 50% chance we hit only one scum, kill a lurker, and win in the following days. 66% win odds.

[RedFlavor]

All we need to do is find 1 town in my opinion so you can lynch everyone else

[RedFlavor]

If 2 townies are sure of each other scum cant nightkill them anyways so yeah

BuJaber is town

VOTE: vijarada NSG

[RedFlavor]

If only one of them is scum then I would suggest lynching math with GL

[Mathdino]

Also just noting that RedFlavor's behaviour around NSG is super scum indicative, up to the point of my personal tell of "requesting a prod on your partner but not looking like you're doing it" with the above post. Then the fact that Red is chainsaw defending the lurkers by going after me stemming from an unexplained RVS read.

I think Red is likely scum because in both his last scumgames that I was in, he was caught for basically making 0 fucking sense in his explanations, and being bad at faking them.

Because he's afraid of looking bad by overexplaining himself, he's playing to a hipfire playstyle instead (think Not_Mafia). This isn't like his towngames.

ANYWAY most likely scumteam is Red/NSG. Red should obviously be lynched tomorrow if either lurker flips scum.

Edit: fucking hell maybe red isn't scum

[Mathdino]

If only one of them is scum then I would suggest lynching math with GL

I mean it's incredibly unlikely this is literally the scumteam.

But yeah tomorrow is basically gonna be about "who's the 4th person that we're neverlynching". We'll see how that goes.

You should explain your "found the scumteam" vote from page 1.

[Mathdino]

If only one of them is scum then I would suggest lynching math with GL

actually no this is exactly in line with red's bussing scumrange so i'm sticking to my proposal as it is

i need backup on red/buj not being the scumteam tho

[RedFlavor]

GL was being protownie and bujaber was also kinda like that, that made the scumteam 2 of math, NSG and vijarada. NSG was active sitewide but not in this game, and I know you really post more like walls or be more townie when you are town so I decided you guys are the scumteam, but then I realized if you guys were the scumteam you would probably try more to win and manipulate town so I decided its vijarada with you, you probably had no motivation to play because he is not very active in thread

[Mathdino]

Shit, fair enough. Bad conclusion (and too trusting of GL/Buj), but nice work.

Couple things:
- It was weird getting into this setup because of the weirdass voting mechanics
- 2 players had posted nothing of content, so I didn't wanna move on without them until it was clear they were straight up lurking
- Do I usually post walls in RVS?
- My worst nightmare was rolling scum with Not_Mafia, and that happened, and I still played and won. Interesting thought, but not a good tell for me.

Red's locktown then, didn't expect actual reasons

I could actually be cool with Math/GL tomorrow, although obviously I'd prefer Bujaber/GL. Being that Bujaber isn't opposing the double lurker lynch at all, it seems most likely that GL is the partner by PoE.

[BuJaber]

VOTE: vijarada and nsg

[BuJaber]

By the way if 1 scum is caught day 1 town wins no matter what.

1 scum dead 1 town dead 4 players alive.
Worst case day 2: 1 town dead 1 town confirmes 3 alive
Day 3: no choice but to vote 2 remaining players = scum lose