Open 718: MLOASR - Game Over

Almost50 · Post Post #8 (isolation #0) » Sun Mar 25, 2018 4:36 pm

Everybody please read the following carefully and try to digest it well before you say anything. If you don't get it the first time, please try rereading afain BEFORE YOU SAY ANYTHING.

This is how I think it works best:

First step: WE WILL NO LYNCH. We need the numbes for this plan to work.

The Top 5 players each visits the one below them on the list, withe the exception of #5 who visits #1 instead. The bottom five visit the corresponding name from the top half.

Put simply:

Floosh + Ahsoka Tano >>>> [01] Almost50
Almost50 + profii >>>> [02] Myloninja13
Myloninja13 + Lalendra >>>> [03] Aubrey
Aubrey + wilky >>>> [04] Montosh
Montosh + Aneninen >>>> [05] Floosh
[06] Ahsoka Tano
[07] profii
[08] Lalendra
[09] wilky
[10] Aneninen

This forces Scum in the top 5 players (if any) NOT to activate their PGO, because it will kill two at once and thus is an explicit guilty. We are thus guaranteed a macimum of ONE death at night (or none if we're luckyb and the JK either blocks the killer or proects the target).

Now the first thing I expect someone to say is that scum won't follow the plan. So? They are still forced to NOT activate theor PGO anyway, and that's the point of the plan.

Now the COP doesn't fololow the plan either. They check someone from the bottom 5 9someone of their own choice, that is. And

they do NOT crumb beforehand

)

Now scum don't know who the Vop is, so they cannot activate the PGO still, lest they do kill the 2 targetting them and get caught.

That's the plan for N1

Most likely outcome: 1 NK + 1 Cop result (Cop only claims if they have a guilty though).

There will be 9 of us at the start of D2, and if we assign 2 random players to visit #6 and let both the Cop and the JK choose their own targets we are very likely to start D3 as 8 players with 2 innos, and if the Cop claims that's be 3 confirmed Townies + the JK (who may or may not be one of the two Cop innos) and the game should be easy from there on because the JK can protect the Cop while we lynch from the remaining pool.

I know this is NOT 100% guaranteed to work, but it maximnized our chances GREATLY, because we are forcing Scum not to make multiple kills on the same night.

Now please go back to reread the whole thing once more, and FGS do NOT crumb your role.

Thank you.

Almost50 · Post Post #11 (isolation #1) » Sun Mar 25, 2018 6:12 pm

In post 9, Aubrey wrote:In general, I'm not opposed to setting up a plan for known visitations. It is however ingrained in me to never let a day go by, and not lynch someone unless threatened with a premature game end. I'm not a big numbers person, so I'm not seeing how the NK is crucial here. To refuse to have someone lynched just doesn't seem like a game that will force much activity and scum-hunting within that day phase.

D1 is not as important in this setup, but the numbers are. If we are reduced to 9 we no longer can cover as many players as we would want to.

We can alter the plan to "everyone visits the player below them" if you really can't live with a No Lynch, but if we have 2 NKs we won't be able to tell which if the two was caused by the PGO effect, so we would have to take our chances and hope the 1st lynch if the two is on scum, because if it's not we're in LyLo already.

We start with 8 vs 2
One mislynch = 7 vs 2
2 NKs = 5 vs 2
One mislynch (of 2 suspects) = 4 vs 2
Now if the other Mafia activates and kills someone with their PGO and their NK is successful we already lose
If they don't we are @ 3 vs 2 and we lynch the 1st Mafia (2nd of the 2 suspects) and we are 3 vs 1
AGAIN, if the last Mafioso activates and kills we already lose..

So that additional person going into the night is actually VERY IMPORTANT for us. The No Lynch on D1 has far far more advantage to Town than an actual Lynch.

Almost50 · Post Post #12 (isolation #2) » Sun Mar 25, 2018 6:14 pm

Also my original plan puts much weight on the Cop results, so the sooner we end the day the better. We don't want to give the scum a chance to sniff for the Cop and shoot them already

Almost50 · Post Post #13 (isolation #3) » Sun Mar 25, 2018 6:17 pm

And on D2 the Cop doesn't out unless they have a guilty. That way even if they die on N2 we know who they visited on N1 so that person is clear when we know who the cop is.

Almost50 · Post Post #22 (isolation #4) » Mon Mar 26, 2018 11:05 am

In post 17, Aubrey wrote:I kinda wish you would have held onto this idea of yours until mid day, or closer to the end of day, just so some actual scum hunting would have gone down.

Let me reiterate: This plan/idea puts weight on the COP being alive. If we lose the Cop on N1 we lose more than 50% of the plan's effectiveness.

It thus had to be put out for discussion (and hopefully approval) as early as possible.

You say we missed out on a chance to scum hunt and I say Scum missed out on a chance to PR hunt.

Almost50 · Post Post #23 (isolation #5) » Mon Mar 26, 2018 11:19 am

In post 18, Lalendra wrote:Now what I don't understand is, assuming we all target as instructed etc., and scum doesn't activate PGO as you mentioned (because it would be near suicide to do so), how does this position us for D2? We get only one NK as mentioned, but if we don't couple this approach with scumhunting, how do we find scum? How do we tell the difference between a townie and a scum who didn't activate their ability? Do we basically just lather/rinse/repeat the above until the cop gets a guilty (which will probably guarantee the cop's death) and then try to find remaining scum?

I have an idea on what to do on D2, but I don't want to preemptively tip scum on how to counter it. It all depends on the NK target (if that's me, you are free to do as you wish obviously, but don't forget the Cop will have a result anyway).

You see, when I played this setup first (about 2 years ago) I proposed a similar plan. Titus was scum and opposed the plan strongly and tried to lynch me for it. That lead to a face-off between me and her that Ranger gracefully dissolved and got Titus lynched on D1, but not before Titus fake-claimed Cop and thus drew a CC.

I do not wish for the Cop to be outed here, and I was hoping someone would realize how the plan is strong enough if Scum don't kill the Cop, so I was counting on at least one scumster to strongly oppose it.

Seeing as that didn't happen, that's the first attempt of catching scum off their guard failing. But there are other tricky moves a perceptive Townie van make to maximize our chances of winning still.

P.S. First time I played this is on my wiki. Probably 2nd or 3rd game I played on MS.

Almost50 · Post Post #24 (isolation #6) » Mon Mar 26, 2018 11:22 am

In post 20, Montosh wrote:Cop/JK won't follow this plan, and they'll target whoever they want.

Oh, but they must, and especially so the Cop. Otherwise we won't know who they inno'd if they accidentally flip on N2.

Almost50 · Post Post #25 (isolation #7) » Mon Mar 26, 2018 11:27 am

In post 20, Montosh wrote:Given that, we're talking 3 or 4 groups with 1 or less players in them at the minimum. profii's gone over the scenario in which a visited scum activates the PGO and is lynched, but what is a scum visited by one of these smaller groups does as well?

One person dying and not the other (of a pair targeting the same person) + Someone else also dying and not their corresponding other = one of the two visitED players is scum, and a good chance the other scum is in the 2 undead visitors.

First: 2 deaths of 2 different pairs = PGO activated 100%. Now which of the two players was killed by it is the question,

Second: Why was the "other person" on that same target not killed? Were they JK'd? Or are they scum who knew their p was activating (and wasn't going to visit them anyway)? Do you have a 3rd scenario?

Almost50 · Post Post #26 (isolation #8) » Mon Mar 26, 2018 11:31 am

In post 20, Montosh wrote:Well, scum kill the one person visiting them through PGo and then faction kill someone visiting another person. We go into Day 2 with 2 v 6. Two people are then under suspicion, the scum and the townie they tried to frame. So it's a 1 v 1. Worst case, we hit the townie, a kill goes through, and we're at 2 v 4, now we lynch the scum for sure, but then tonight it's 1 v 3, so scum only has to make one visit kill plus one faction kill to win.

This -again- ignores he Cop results. EVEN if the Cop is among those who are killed at this point, we know who they visited and thus we know who is confirmed a townie. I'm not even accounting for a successful block from the JK.

Almost50 · Post Post #30 (isolation #9) » Tue Mar 27, 2018 6:49 am

So far 2 players haven't even posted yet.

Almost50 · Post Post #39 (isolation #10) » Tue Mar 27, 2018 11:09 am

@Profii: JK is free to do as they wish. Also PGO resolves before the JK in this setup.

Almost50 · Post Post #44 (isolation #11) » Tue Mar 27, 2018 2:23 pm

@profii: I hope I understand the question right. You're assuming one of the Mafia is theoretically assigned to visit their p (according to the plan), so they deviate and go kill someone else while their p activates and kills the one visiting them.

In this case we have 2 pairs of suspects: The 2 players being visited who had one of their visitors dying and the other not, and the two survivors.

This could theoretically mean we have 2-4 lynches to finish the Mafia, but 4 isn't acceptable because we will have 6T vs 2M and a mislynch coupled with 2 kills gets us to 3 vs 2 in which case we lynch a confirmed Mafia and the other gets to kill someone so we are in a 2 vs 1 with 2 suspects. Am I correct?

First of all, you are assuming no cop results and no successful JK, which is fair. But if we lynch between the two "targeted" players first, and we mislynch we have a confirmed Mafioso whom we know has already activated their PGO, and we get 4 confirmed Townies as well.

So in reality we would have 4 conf!town vs 1 conf!scum vs 2 suspects

Now the plan would be for all townies to AVOID visiting the 2 suspects. This should guarantee we only have one NK because one of the 2 suspects is the Mafioso with the PGO still unused. The next day we lynch the confirmed Mafioso and we go into the night as 3 conf!Town vs 2 suspects.

Now the plan would be for 1 and only one townie to visit one of the 2 suspects, thus -again- guaranteeing only 1 NK (2 would mean the visited activated their PGO and are therefore confirmed Scum).

If we come into the day as 2 conf!Town and 2 suspects still, and the cop doesn't have a result on either then we take our chances and lynch one of them. The question is how likely is it that the Cop doesn't have a result on either of the two by that point?

Almost50 · Post Post #45 (isolation #12) » Tue Mar 27, 2018 2:24 pm

Like, I said the plan wasn't 100%, but it still GREATLY maximizes our chances as opposed to a random lynch + random visiting plan

Almost50 · Post Post #48 (isolation #13) » Tue Mar 27, 2018 3:36 pm

Well, if you want to scum hunt go ahead and ask everybody questions, but as it has been pointed out -probably by you- we won't be getting anything fruitful of our discussions on D1 if we already agree on following the plan. The beast we can do now id wait for D2 to discuss what course of action to take. Maybe the Cop WILL be lucky enough to nail a scumster on N1? Or mabe the JK will be lucky enough to block a kill? Who knows?

Oh and again:

Cop does NOT claim unless they have a guilty
JK does NOT claim EVEN if they do block a kill on N1.

Since the JK is free to target whomever they want they aren't really outed by protecting a NK ot by blocking the source of the NK.

Almost50 · Post Post #50 (isolation #14) » Tue Mar 27, 2018 3:44 pm

@Aubrey: Let's assume you and I are scum here. Following your plan we can just shoot someone (1 person) on N1, and then one of us activates on N2 thus we have 3 NKs over 2 nights. Now let's say the Cop was one of them.. how do we know who they investigated 9and cleared) on N1?

Of course, by activating (let's say I did) I -again- have put myself in a 1 v 1 with a townie, only we have no clears because the Cop is dead, and if we somehow manage to lynch the other person before me and you kill again on N3 we go into D4 as 3T v me & you. I get lynched and get to kill and the next day it's 2 v 1 still. How is this any better? And if you activate on either of the last 2 nights we (scum) win already.

Your plan does no gives us clears nor does it prevent scum from activating their PGO shot w.o. serious consequences.

Almost50 · Post Post #52 (isolation #15) » Tue Mar 27, 2018 4:13 pm

OK. NEW PLAN (I need everybody to confirm):

Floosh + Ahsoka Tano >>>> [01] Almost50
Almost50 + profii >>>> [02] Myloninja13
[03] Aubrey
Aubrey + wilky >>>> [04] Montosh
Montosh + Aneninen >>>> [05] Floosh
Myloninja13 + Lalendra >>>>[06] Ahsoka Tano
[07] profii
[08] Lalendra
[09] wilky
[10] Aneninen

(Basically the two targeting Aubrey will target Ausuka instead.

Meanwhile, the Cop will target Aubrey

. Since we don't know who the Cop is then if they die Aubrey did it with her PGO (even if there's only 1 NK because scum may try to forfeit their factional NK to fool us). So, Cop dies on N1 and Audrey eats rope on D2. If the Cop lives and doesn't claim a guilty we work from there.

Deal??

OR.. we have a third option in agreeing to lynch Aubrey on the spot and rework our plan accordingly.

@Aubrey: I caught Titus using this very same method. I proposed the plan and she was opposed to it, because -realistically- this gives scum a 10% chance to win anyway, so one of them HAS to try and derail it.

Almost50 · Post Post #53 (isolation #16) » Tue Mar 27, 2018 4:13 pm

Oh, and when Aubrey claims Cop DO NOT CC. Just lynch him anyway.

Almost50 · Post Post #56 (isolation #17) » Tue Mar 27, 2018 4:29 pm

Yes, I did indeed! How about that? Eh!

So, I take it you do agree with my revamped plan? Cop checks you, gets NK'd and you get lynched on D2, leaving your p as the lone scum vs 6 townies (I assume you will also target me for the NK tonight either way, so 2 NKs including the Cop)/

I like that one too.

Almost50 · Post Post #58 (isolation #18) » Tue Mar 27, 2018 4:39 pm

In post 57, Montosh wrote:To be honest Almost there's nothing scummy about wanting to spend each day scumhunting. Your plan does have advantages but not lynching at all will promote low information and apathy. Both of those things are bad for town and good for scum.

So, you would rather scum hunt the traditional way while -at the same time- you acknowledge my plan puts us in a better position. Is that what you're saying?

Almost50 · Post Post #60 (isolation #19) » Tue Mar 27, 2018 4:51 pm

In post 59, Aubrey wrote:Lol. Sure A50, I can agree to your lil plan.

Good! We're set them.

Floosh + Ahsoka Tano >>>> [01] Almost50
Almost50 + profii >>>> [02] Myloninja13
Aubrey + wilky >>>> [04] Montosh
Montosh + Aneninen >>>> [05] Floosh
Myloninja13 + Lalendra >>>>[06] Ahsoka Tano

Cop >>>> [03] Aubrey

Almost50 · Post Post #65 (isolation #20) » Tue Mar 27, 2018 5:15 pm

So, let's wait and see how the others will want to go then.

Here's my vote:

VOTE: No Lynch

HEAL: Plan in post #60

Almost50 · Post Post #67 (isolation #21) » Tue Mar 27, 2018 5:43 pm

I have voted No Lynch. That's my say. However, there are 9 others playing the game, yourself included. Vote as you wish.

And what do you men when you say "right past wrongs"? I WON the previous game using this same tactic, and I even lynched Scum on D1 for similar reasons. We won at D3, thanks to Ranger who could've even won us the game on D2 had we waited for her to show up rather than speedlynch someone in our excitement rush.

Almost50 · Post Post #102 (isolation #22) » Wed Mar 28, 2018 11:20 am

In post 73, Lalendra wrote:This is confusing to me. How would we know for sure that it was Aubrey? Scum MAY forfeit factional kill to fool us, we don't know that they will. They also might choose not to activate PGO and use the factional kill instead on a random townie to throw us off, so that kill could mean that Aubrey is definitely NOT scum.

The Cop is visiting Aubrey. Scum have -say- 16.67% of a chance to hit the Cop with their factional shot. (I'm saying 16.67% because we have 8 Town players, and assuming neither myself nor Aubrey is the Cop).

Now if Aubrey is Town they will either take their chances with the other 6 or shoot him to deny us a chance to have 1 confirmed Townie.

If Aubrey is Scum though, he will either activate the PGO or the Cop will return a guilty on him on D2.

Do the math and tell me if 16.67% random chance is greater or that Aubrey activated the PGO and is thus the Cop killer.

Almost50 · Post Post #103 (isolation #23) » Wed Mar 28, 2018 11:38 am

In post 101, profii wrote:You are screaming to get copped so you can PGO to me.

This is a good catch, and "if I were the Cop" I'd have to decide on whether I do visit Aubrey tonight or let them think that I will and visit someone else.

So,

@Cop: you are free to decide on whether you want to Cop Aubrey or not on N1.

Also,

@JK: You're still free to target whomever your heart desires.

Almost50 · Post Post #106 (isolation #24) » Wed Mar 28, 2018 12:45 pm

I would leave that to their best judgement myself. Here are all possibilities:

1- Aubrey Town + Cop visit = Aubrey conf!Town
2- Aubrey Town + Cop no visit = Aubrey suspect
3- Aubrey Scum + Cop visit + PGO = Aubrey conf!Scum
4- Aubrey Scum + Cop visit + no PGO = Aubrey conf!Scum
5- Aubrey Scum + Cop no visit + PGO = Aubrey can be safely checked on N2
6- Aubrey Scum + Cop no visit + no PGO = We missed a chance to check Aubrey

There's only 1/6 choices that confirm Aubrey as Town, but 2/6 to confirm him as scum.
There's also a 5/6 chance the Cop lives anyway.

I'd do the math and consider all possibilities, turning it into a WIFOMy situation. Cop can always confirm "someone else" as either alignment, y'know.

P-edit: OK.. Cop DOES investigate Aubrey is the best play. Maybe I'm being overly paranoid, so we will see about that.

Almost50 · Post Post #107 (isolation #25) » Wed Mar 28, 2018 12:46 pm

And just in case I'm dead by tomorrow, I'd say Profii & wilky are near lock!town to me, if that means anything to anyone.

Almost50 · Post Post #114 (isolation #26) » Sun Apr 01, 2018 5:50 am

Now we wait for everybody to report in. Just post anything from "I'm here" to "checking in" to "reporting" to let us know you're aware the thread is reopened. The Cop will only reveal themselves if they have a guilty. Otherwise we know their target returned innocent, then we start from there.

Almost50 · Post Post #115 (isolation #27) » Sun Apr 01, 2018 5:53 am

@Montosh: With or without the traditional D1 scum hunting we would not have a good NKA. Scum are out to shoot the PRs. Period.

Almost50 · Post Post #118 (isolation #28) » Sun Apr 01, 2018 6:33 am

@mod: replace me

I'm not playing with Aubrey who's sole purpose in the game is to mock e, my plan, my play.. etc.

Almost50 · Post Post #121 (isolation #29) » Sun Apr 01, 2018 6:49 am

@Aubrey: What was the purpose of 117? If you're Town you just got confirmed. Like we could wait for others to show up and if nobody claims a guilty on you you're on the clear. Why does this bother you in any way?

@Mod: NVM. I'll stay.

Almost50 · Post Post #123 (isolation #30) » Sun Apr 01, 2018 6:59 am

Scum who agree to the plan w/o giving it a thought would be dumb. We are in a much better position today than we were yesterday.

EVEN if we tried to lynch yesterday it was 98% likely to be a mislynch. That's what the stats say. But I'll give it an 80% (that's a random lynch, which it would not have been because scum are informed).

Now also assuming the PRs didn't give themselves away and we ended up with one NK on a VIT we would be 6 vs 2 todaym but we're not. We're 7 vs 2.

Moreover, even numbers by day always favour scum. Odd numbers favour Town (also statistically proven). So 9 players alive is better than 8 any way you slice it. If I stop now and say we play normally we are still in a better position.

Also as far as you suspecting those who agreed with me, just look at the NK. That is one of the 2 I said were semi-confirmed townies to me. profii looked like a COP to scum.

Can we please stick to the facts for the time being? We do have results and progression in the game you know. Use them. Like if you know yourself to be a townie you know everyone else will in a matter of a few hours and you can be in a better postion than even myself because -despite of it all- I am not confirmed to the crowd myself.

Almost50 · Post Post #124 (isolation #31) » Sun Apr 01, 2018 7:01 am

In post 122, Aubrey wrote:Who were the only ones to oppose you? Myself and Montosh. Am I not wrong in assuming you scum-read them as well?

Another meaningless question. My own read on Montosh (or anyone else for that matter) shouldn't concern you in the least at this point. If you are confirmed you are the Town leader by default, not me.

Almost50 · Post Post #125 (isolation #32) » Sun Apr 01, 2018 7:04 am

Like I could propose a plan for the day and you can just as easily shoot it down just because there's a teeny weeny little chance I'm scum while you would be mod-confirmed already. Unless the JK precisely targeted the Cop, but that would be a mishap we can't do anything about. We'll just move on.

Almost50 · Post Post #130 (isolation #33) » Sun Apr 01, 2018 8:10 am

OK, we can start playing/voting for now if you wish. The Cop will interrupt us if they have a guilty. Otherwise, we have them with an inno (2 confirmed townies) + the JK (a 3rd confirmed townie) with a target that is "less likely to be scum" (not an explicit inno, but just less likely to be scum).

Also each and every V will have themselves as confirmed. The problem is they don't know -yet- who the other 3.5 (so to speak) confirmed players are.

Closer to the lynch I will provide the plan for the night, but just in case a lynch goes through too fast the preliminary plan is for each player to vote the one above them on the list (removing profii and Aubrey). It now looks like this:

wilky >>>[01] Almost50
Lalendra >>>[02] Myloninja13
Ahsoka Tano >>>[03] Aubrey
Floosh >>>[05] Floosh
Aubrey >>>[06] Ahsoka Tano
Myloninja13 >>>[08] Lalendra
Aneninen >>>[09] wilky
Almost50 >>>[10] Aneninen

But it goes without saying that if X is lynched the name below them will take over in both visiting their target and being visited by the one below them. (so, if I get lynched then wilky targets Aneninen instead)

As for Aubrey, they're free to target someone of their choice provided they say whom they're targeting beforehand. (This means someone will be visited by 2 players, and that someone will be decided by Aubrey).

The Cop will once again have to follow the plan so as not to be outed if they have another inno. The JK is free to decide what to do (preferably not the same target as Audrey though. We don't want 3 people targeting the same person).

Does anybody have any objections/corrections/questions?

Almost50 · Post Post #135 (isolation #34) » Mon Apr 02, 2018 1:59 am

His comments show he understands the plan. Agreeing with the plan while understanding the theory behind it is town-motivated.

Almost50 · Post Post #137 (isolation #35) » Mon Apr 02, 2018 3:30 am

OK.. then you're a scum read. Happy?

Almost50 · Post Post #138 (isolation #36) » Mon Apr 02, 2018 3:31 am

Let's start the scum hunting by doing this then:

VOTE: wilky

Almost50 · Post Post #139 (isolation #37) » Mon Apr 02, 2018 3:32 am

Also, if wilky flips Scum we lynch A50. He tried to pass an unfounfded TR on wilky for suboptimal reasons.

Almost50 · Post Post #141 (isolation #38) » Mon Apr 02, 2018 5:30 am

In post 140, Lalendra wrote:
In post 114, Almost50 wrote:Now we wait for everybody to report in. Just post anything from "I'm here" to "checking in" to "reporting" to let us know you're aware the thread is reopened. The Cop will only reveal themselves if they have a guilty. Otherwise we know their target returned innocent, then we start from there.
If the cop only reveals themselves if they have a guilty, then we don't know anything about their target currently, including who they targeted.

The Cop targeted Audrey as per the plan! No claim = Audrey conf!Town.

Almost50 · Post Post #146 (isolation #39) » Mon Apr 02, 2018 7:56 am

If we go by "Scum are lurking to avoid being detected" we only have 3 voting targets today. Even if you think they're going by "one active/semi-active & one lurker" it is still a good start.

Myloninja13
VOTE: Floosh
Ahsoka Tano

Almost50 · Post Post #156 (isolation #40) » Tue Apr 03, 2018 2:54 pm

In post 150, LlamaFluff wrote:
Vote Count

Floosh (1) - Almost50

Not Voting (8) - Myloninja13, Aubrey, Montosh, Floosh, Ahsoka Tano, Lalendra, wilky, Aneninen

With 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch
Deadline for Day two is Friday April 20th, 9AM PST

In post 151, Aubrey wrote:VOTE: Ashoka

In post 152, Ahsoka Tano wrote:
In post 151, Aubrey wrote:VOTE: Ashoka
What is this here for?

In post 153, wilky wrote:Why the naked vote @aubrey?

In post 154, Aubrey wrote:Is there reason for her to be townread that I’m missing?

In post 155, Montosh wrote:
In post 101, profii wrote:You are screaming to get copped so you can PGO to me.
Lol is this really what scum NKed profii for?

Almost50 · Post Post #157 (isolation #41) » Tue Apr 03, 2018 2:56 pm

^^ And that, ladies and gentlemen, is 24 hrs worth of scum hunting.

Almost50 · Post Post #160 (isolation #42) » Tue Apr 03, 2018 4:02 pm

In post 158, Montosh wrote:That's what happens when we waste Day 1, skip RVS, get no reads or discussion and go into Day 2 with almost no info.

Yeah, right. Well, consider this D1 in a 9 player game and show some effort perhaps? Or consider it a Night start and try to do something useful maybe?

Almost50 · Post Post #163 (isolation #43) » Tue Apr 03, 2018 5:34 pm

Alright. If Ashoka doesn't say something useful in the next 24 hours I'll join you.

I also agree on both wilky and Montosh, but I don't understand the TR or Lalendra (however, if that should in anyway compromise a PR even by reducing the pool, I'd be content to stay blind for now).

Almost50 · Post Post #187 (isolation #44) » Thu Apr 05, 2018 3:09 pm

I think we should wait for Floosh to be replaced and see if the replacement has anything to say.

Almost50 · Post Post #194 (isolation #45) » Fri Apr 06, 2018 3:15 pm

In post 5, Ahsoka Tano wrote:I was waiting for this!

In post 6, Ahsoka Tano wrote:VOTE: Floosh [/vote]

In post 10, Ahsoka Tano wrote:I meam, I can follow that!

Not seeing the NL requirement tho

In post 152, Ahsoka Tano wrote:
In post 151, Aubrey wrote:VOTE: Ashoka
What is this here for?

In post 192, Ahsoka Tano wrote:Sorry, I lost internet access in the tiger attack! Reading up!

In post 193, Ahsoka Tano wrote:Wow, this game feels empty.
All of D1 is just theory talk. Wooo no scumhunting or any AI posts

VOTE: Ashoka

Also please take notice of the broken vote tags on Floosh that Ashoka never cared to fix. That's all.

Almost50 · Post Post #199 (isolation #46) » Sat Apr 07, 2018 4:50 am

In post 195, Ahsoka Tano wrote:
In post 194, Almost50 wrote:VOTE: Ashoka

Also please take notice of the broken vote tags on Floosh that Ashoka never cared to fix. That's all.
Irony.

VOTE: Ashoka

Almost50 · Post Post #200 (isolation #47) » Sat Apr 07, 2018 4:51 am

VOTE: Ashoka

Almost50 · Post Post #214 (isolation #48) » Sun Apr 08, 2018 10:45 am

The activity here is telling

Almost50 · Post Post #217 (isolation #49) » Sun Apr 08, 2018 4:09 pm

@Llama:

Bring in Mathdino. If the slot is Town we win. If it's scum I'd like to know how this plan can be broken.

Almost50 · Post Post #226 (isolation #50) » Mon Apr 09, 2018 2:24 pm

In post 222, LlamaFluff wrote:
Flubbernugget replaces Floosh
Iconeum replaces Aneninen

Welcome to both of you. I hope you can get this game moving some.

Almost50 · Post Post #257 (isolation #51) » Wed Apr 11, 2018 4:24 am

@Icon: WHY would we want scum to shoot the conf!Townie? And WHY would we want the Cop jailed (and thus not able to bring in a second result)?

The mass claim can only happen on D3 or later. If the Cop is dead by any chance we will know whom they cleared already. Mass claiming today is anti-town.

Almost50 · Post Post #264 (isolation #52) » Thu Apr 12, 2018 3:29 am

I don't like that ahsoka is still afk and not giving a damn here

Almost50 · Post Post #274 (isolation #53) » Fri Apr 13, 2018 4:12 pm

Shameless prodge here. Also a reminder that if we don't lynch someone this is the plan:

Myloninja13 >>>[01] Almost50
Montosh >>>[02] Myloninja13
Floosh >>>[03] Montosh
Ahsoka Tano >>>[05] Floosh
Lalendra >>>[06] Ahsoka Tano
wilky >>>[08] Lalendra
Aneninen >>>[09] wilky
Almost50 >>>[10] Aneninen

Aubrey is free to visit someone he TRs
JK can deviate and target someone of their own choice.

If we do lynch someone, their target becomes the target of the person who was supposed to visit them (i.e. the person right below them on the list)

Almost50 · Post Post #287 (isolation #54) » Sun Apr 15, 2018 5:09 pm

Mylo ?
Flubber ??
Montosh ??
Red ???
Icon ???

Almost50 · Post Post #296 (isolation #55) » Mon Apr 16, 2018 3:21 am

In post 288, Montosh wrote:Just to clarify, why do you think we shouldn't have two people targeting each person on the other half of the list this time? Why one person each?

Because if both scum are in the lower half and they both activate it's all over!

2 x 2 PGO kills + 1 factional NK = 5 dead Townies out of the 7 remaining (and that's assuming we no lynch), so we'd have 2 Mafia vs 2 Townies on D3.

Almost50 · Post Post #297 (isolation #56) » Mon Apr 16, 2018 3:28 am

I mean, theoretically we can:
1- No Lynch
2- Do a 2 persons visiting 1 on the 4 still alive from the bottom half
3- Hope either one of the scum is in the top half, or that one of them is assigned to the JK who is still free to pick a different target. They do that and they pick a townie.

Worst case scenario in this particular case is we one Mafia kills 2 through PGO (outs themselves), and one kills only one through PGO + the regular NK (2 suspects).

We will be 3 vs 2 tomorrow with one confirmed scum, confirmed townies and 2 suspects. We lynch the conf!Scum and we lose a conf!Townie on N3 and we're 1 conf!Town + 2 suspects on D4, so the 1 conf!Townie decides the game.

Basically, 2 visits tonight is giving Scum back what they lost on N1.

Almost50 · Post Post #303 (isolation #57) » Tue Apr 17, 2018 1:52 pm

Well, I think I can vote Lalendra to oblivion if we can't find a suitable replacement

VOTE: Lalendra

It is sad how most games nowadays start with a certain player list and ends with a completely different list. *Sigh*

Almost50 · Post Post #314 (isolation #58) » Wed Apr 18, 2018 6:27 am

Less than 2 days to deadline

Almost50 · Post Post #318 (isolation #59) » Wed Apr 18, 2018 12:36 pm

@Flubber: Wilky was responding to a question by Redflavor who quoted my D1 plan, so yes.. the Cop is assumed to have checked Audrey and thus Audrey is now confirmed a townie.

Almost50 · Post Post #344 (isolation #60) » Wed Apr 18, 2018 4:25 pm

In post 329, Mathdino wrote:wait so why the fuck would we not all just target A50 and/or aubrey

Wait! When did you join the game??

UNVOTE:

And to answer your question, it's to provide cover for the Cop while -simultaneously- keep a track of their innos. Like, if the Cop flipped on N3 we would have 2 innos knowing whom they visited without the need for them to hint it. Otherwise the Cop will have to tell us who they've checked tomorrow which would out them.

And, NO. A hypothetical "if I was the Cop" thing doesn't work, because whoever claims they visited the Mafia and didn't get a guilty are automatically ruled out from being the Cop.

Almost50 · Post Post #347 (isolation #61) » Wed Apr 18, 2018 4:35 pm

Actually, RC is MY alt, and so is Mathdino

P-edit: If I was scum and I knew the Cop is targeting me along with someone else I'd certainly activate my PGO. That's THREE kills tonight and I'd be alright eating rope in exchange of them.

7-2 now
6-2 assuming a mislynch
3-2 coming out of the night, so my scum p activated the next night and kills someone else (hopefully they're not the same person) to win the game, but even if it was the same person they'd still be in a 2 v 1 next, which is what I've been trying to avoid. I don't want us to get to a LyLo where one desperate/misguided townie can lose the game for us.

Almost50 · Post Post #350 (isolation #62) » Wed Apr 18, 2018 4:43 pm

In post 348, Mathdino wrote:okay so why were we okay with ordering the cop around on N1 but not on N2?

The answer is:

VOTE: Mathdino

It is you and Flubber, isn't it?

You want to mislynch Redflavor, get Flubber to kill both Icon (whom you deduced isn't the Cop) and the Cop, and you shoot me/Aubrey

Then you have total control over the game. Tell me I'm wrong, because I don't believe for a second that MATHDINO would miss the obvious.

Almost50 · Post Post #363 (isolation #63) » Wed Apr 18, 2018 5:04 pm

UNVOTE:

I'll give you none more chance, but it's obvious the JK should be on Aubrey, and the Cop should either get a second inno or a guilty.

Assuming 1 NK, we have 2 innos, the Cop & the JK (would be a farce if the Cop checked the JK, the JK blocked the Cop, or the Cop got NK'd tonight). So, there is a chance we have 4 confirmed townies alive tomorrow with 7 players in total. Auto town win.

But let's say either the Cop checked the JK OR the JK blocked the Cop. That's 3 innos still, so we probably can lynch correct if we have good reads.

If the Cop is shot though, we only have Aubrey & the JK, and we have to keep the JK hidden to yet another night, but I'm hoping for the Cop to survive tbh.

P.S. JK dying is similar to them blocking the Cop or Cop targeting them. As long as the Cop is alive we have at least 3 confirmed townies with a possible 4th if the JK isn't one of them.

Almost50 · Post Post #372 (isolation #64) » Wed Apr 18, 2018 5:33 pm

In post 364, Mathdino wrote:i already have a good read on myloninja so

why not just send the cop to try to hunt for an inno? have everyone visit aubrey to dodge the PGO

then tomorrow we have cop, JK, aubrey, and the extra cop inno

if the cop dies, we still have 2 innos anyway

My plan didn't involve reads as an integral part. It was more focused on solving the game mechanically.

But you know what? I'm not in the mood to go on about this on my own, so feel free to present your own plan and I'll just follow.

Almost50 · Post Post #375 (isolation #65) » Wed Apr 18, 2018 5:46 pm

In post 365, RedFlavor wrote:
In post 361, Aubrey wrote:Something tells me I've played with Red before as well under a different name....
I have never played with you, not even with my alt
In post 362, Aubrey wrote:
In post 359, RedFlavor wrote:Almost could be mafia for wanting a cop on aubrey also killing the game
?
Almost can be mafia for wanting a cop on obvious town
Almost also can be mafia for killing the game

I'm not about to argue about my alignment here, but I feel the urge to give you a tip in general (if you allow me, of course). Feel free to ignore the spoiler if you don't want my advice.

Spoiler:

Almost50 · Post Post #376 (isolation #66) » Wed Apr 18, 2018 5:48 pm

In post 373, Mathdino wrote:thoughts on wilky's ISO? i'm trying to follow redflavor but i'm starting to townlean wilky tbh

Wilky feel town o me tbh.

Almost50 · Post Post #378 (isolation #67) » Wed Apr 18, 2018 5:52 pm

@Dino: If you are town here, then yes.. Flubber is the best lynch. I'd also lynch Mylo, but you are more familiar with their play. I relized I tend to SR them anyway.

P-edit:

VOTE: Flubbernugget

Almost50 · Post Post #379 (isolation #68) » Wed Apr 18, 2018 5:55 pm

If this flips scum then the JK is effectively a 2nd Cop tonight (if a kill goes through that is).

So, assuming Scum!Flubber + Cop & JK alive tomorrow we have at least 4 innos, maybe 5.

Almost50 · Post Post #388 (isolation #69) » Wed Apr 18, 2018 6:23 pm

In post 380, RedFlavor wrote:49,9
Would you promote NL if you were scum?

I just said NO. Scum need that (mis)lynch bad enough. They need to both hunt for PRs and kill a townie in by day.

Also, it is statistically proven that even numbered players by day are better for scum than odd numbers, so a lynch coupled with a NK keeps the scales towards scum. In short, I did everything to ensure we flipped the scales against scum, not towards them.

Almost50 · Post Post #389 (isolation #70) » Wed Apr 18, 2018 6:28 pm

In post 384, Mathdino wrote:A50 help me find a way to make that plan less stupid

The way you put it it can't be "edited". Like, maybe if Flubber flips scum then the Cop is on one of Red/Wilky and the JK is on the other. Even if the Cop dies we have an inno from te JK. If he JK dies we have a result from the Cop. If they both live; if there's a kill we have 2 innos. If there isn't we still have the Cop result and then we can deal with the situation at hand.

Almost50 · Post Post #398 (isolation #71) » Thu Apr 19, 2018 5:32 am

In post 390, Mathdino wrote:But we still don't have a way to tell apart a guilty by pgo from a normal nightkill, right?

No we don't. Not anymore.

The idea is when we are 10 we can afford to lose 5 people in one night and still win (the 5 die in exchange for 2 solid guilties).

OK.. let's say we assign two "names" to visit one target and 2 other "names" to visit the other, then we assign a "role" to visit one the other to visit the second.

We may end up with up to 3 on the same person, but given we are working under the assumption Flubber flips red that's ok.

Almost50 · Post Post #401 (isolation #72) » Thu Apr 19, 2018 5:47 am

@Montosh: Regardless of the change in plan Mathdino has brought in, we have ALWAYS KNOWN who the Cop would be checking EVEN BEFORE they were assigned to check Aubrey on N1. What we didn't/don't know is WHO THE COP IS, which is safer for them still. IF they flip we will know whom they checked because they are supposed to have been following the plan and we have the visiting charts history.

That said, there are some tiny details that could interfere but could be easily deduced later on. (remind me to expand on this on D3 if I'm still alive). The GOOD thing here is if Mathdino is Town then I have no problem dying because there's another player who can coordinate the town. I was dead worried I'd be NK'd on N1 to prevent me from advancing the plan any further on D2.

So, bottom line, whether we tell the Cop to visit a specific player (i.e. Cop targets X), or we let them be (i.e. X visits Y, A visits B .. etc) once the Cop flips we know who they checked.

P-edit: Yes, but I think I did mention it while discussing the game I was in with Titus, so it goes w/o saying that if Flubber claims a PR nobody CC and neither of the PRs targets him tonight either. This way if he is faking he can't activate the PGO. He will be found out either through the flip of the true PR or by PoE when we have enough confirmed townies.

If he IS a PR indeed he will be shot tonight.

Almost50 · Post Post #417 (isolation #73) » Thu Apr 19, 2018 2:10 pm

VOTE: Montosh

*Sigh*

On one hand, yes.. Dino brought in some great shit and resurrected motivation into the game.
On the other hand, he has just killed my plan of keeping the Cop alive for the opening 2 nights.

IF (hypothetical situation now) Flubber had another inno, and JK protected Aubrey, and even assuming a mislynch today + NK that is on neither the Cop or the JK, we would be 7 in total in D3, but with 4 confirmed townies alive (well, I know there is a considerable chance the JK or the target of Flubber's N2 check will be NK'd, but still.. 3 confirmed townies + myself would've solved the game for me)

Anyway, carry on, ladies and gentlemen (ahem, technically we no longer have any ladies with both Ahsoka & Lalendra replaced).

P-edit: Hmm.. who did Red replace again?

Almost50 · Post Post #434 (isolation #74) » Thu Apr 19, 2018 4:33 pm

In post 431, Montosh wrote:
In post 395, Montosh wrote:Incidentally, I don't think we've done this:

Can everyone who was here last night please CONFIRM they followed the plan as laid out in POST 60?
For emphasis.

What do you need confirmed? The Cop did target Aubrey, and the JK was free to pick their own target anyway. The rest don't matter bc scum would not have activated either way (not knowing who visits them AND we only had one NK)

Almost50 · Post Post #453 (isolation #75) » Thu Apr 19, 2018 7:18 pm

In post 452, Iconeum wrote:would anyone be up for a wilky lynch? i've been thinking about that a lot since lalendra replaced out

Not I. I still have that TR on him from D1. And yes, it's largely because he understood and agreed with the plan. Look at the first 3-4 posts in his ISO and you will see he didn't argue against the plan which -the plan- I still maintain is very much anti-scum and very much pro-town.

Almost50 · Post Post #454 (isolation #76) » Thu Apr 19, 2018 7:23 pm

I Think I have my town block intact. Audrey/Flubber/Dino/Wilky and myself. (You do you, and I do me. This is MY town block).

Almost50 · Post Post #460 (isolation #77) » Fri Apr 20, 2018 4:01 am

@Aubrey/@Flubber: You guys are currently the confirmed townies, so you do have a say and what you say matters. However, please do consider input from people you like myself and Math.

@Icon: Denying Scum info >>>>>> any info town could've gained through a blind discussion on D1 in his setup. wilky did the right thing and didn't argue. Some of those who did argue were TOWN, but they argued because it's a new/different approach to them, so they were arguing the principle. wilky

understood

the plan, yet he didn't argue. The plan is 100% pro-town and accepting it w/o reservations goes directly AGAINST scum agenda and scum win con.

Almost50 · Post Post #469 (isolation #78) » Fri Apr 20, 2018 9:36 am

This is probably why I sometimes hate playing with new people (note: by "new" I mean people whom I haven't played with before. It's NOT a reference to their experience or join date)

double you eye elle kay why ease tao'nn. Is this plain enough yet?

Almost50 · Post Post #470 (isolation #79) » Fri Apr 20, 2018 9:39 am

Iconium/Montosh/NL These are the acceptable 3 options of the day. I would add Mylo myself, but I'm a team player and Dino seems to think this is likely town, so I can live with that for today. You should also be able to live with wilky as a TR of mine for today.

Almost50 · Post Post #485 (isolation #80) » Fri Apr 20, 2018 2:56 pm

@Montosh: What "info" would the town have gained from a D1 lynch/wagons?? You push someone to L-1 and ask them to claim and they claim a VT. What do you do? On contrary, you do that and they claim Cop/JK. What good is that for town?

I'll tell you what SCUM would benefit from a D1 lynch/wagons:
1- They watch the town develop suspicions and grudges against one another
2- Possibly getting a PR to claim
3- At the very least make sure they use up one mislynch that is actually still available for the town today thanks to the NL on D1
4- STATISTICALLY going into he day with ODD numbers is better than even numbers. 9 players is actually better for town than 10 or 8. 5 is better than 4 or 6.

But I'll disregard #4 bc not so many players know these facts. #3 though is so simple I don't see someone missing even if this was heir first mafia game ever. Scum won't just give away their mislynch because it makes them play one more day to make up for it which means one more chance for the Cop to get a result. It also decreases their chances of actually spotting the Cop/JK via day play for them to shoot at night. It's as if the game had a night start and they had to get a shot in the dark, which they did.

Almost50 · Post Post #507 (isolation #81) » Sat Apr 21, 2018 7:18 am

@Audrey: Please don't get me wrong, but it is exactly what you're doing here that hurts the town most in most games on this site. You dislike the No Lynch option, but you won't lynch someone you're not even sure they're town but just think so.

Let's say Montosh is 20% scum and 80% town. That's the exact probability of a random lynch at the start of the game still. The upside is he does flip scum the JK also becomes effectively a Cop. Let's not forget you are confirmed and the Cop is outed, so the JK giving us one more confirmed townie means we win the game barring PGO activation shenanigans.

If Montosh flips Town we're still good, because -unless scum activate PGO and actually kill someone with it- we will still be at odd numbers on D3.

I dunno how else to express my thoughts. I'm not the outspoken kind and English isn't even my primary language. I just hope the point I'm trying to get across is clear enough for you by now so that you would reconsider your stance here.

Almost50 · Post Post #511 (isolation #82) » Sat Apr 21, 2018 7:26 am

VOTE: Iconeum

Almost50 · Post Post #525 (isolation #83) » Sat Apr 21, 2018 9:22 am

Y'know.. this is why I still feel best about the Montosh lynch. He basically is either stubborn and self-centered or is scum.

Almost50 · Post Post #549 (isolation #84) » Wed Apr 25, 2018 5:29 am

In post 541, Mathdino wrote:scumteam is montosh/redflavor btw

100% agree with this.

In post 548, RedFlavor wrote:^this post looks weird while we are lyning montosh, why vote me?
Mylo is probably scum with montosh
VOTE: montosh

^this post looks weird while we are "lyning" montosh/red. The latter knows the former will flip "red" anyway, so is "lyning" up a mislynch next.

I'm alright hammering either of the two anytime. Let's just wait for Flub and Audrey to see which way they want to go first.

Almost50 · Post Post #552 (isolation #85) » Wed Apr 25, 2018 6:54 am

In post 550, Montosh wrote:I swear if it really is Math/A50 then I'm gonna lose my shit.

Seriously, and I in no way mean this as a defense of myself in this game, but I do not shoot the outed Cop when I know he JK will 100% protect them. I would be shooting Audrey (50%) or someone else (50%) every day of every week. I also fully expect Math to do the same here.

@Math: that is unless I have a strongman (or a roleblocker AND I know who the JK is)

Almost50 · Post Post #556 (isolation #86) » Wed Apr 25, 2018 7:56 am

In post 555, Montosh wrote:- I don't know much about her play, but bussing seems like something she'd do from what little I saw

Who do you mean by "her"? Me or Lalendra?

Almost50 · Post Post #559 (isolation #87) » Wed Apr 25, 2018 8:29 am

In post 558, Mathdino wrote:hey A50 remember that game where your team mafia captain Lang Buddha referred to lalendra as part of the Female Bloc

I vaguely do, yes.

@Montosh: OK. Also, I didn't respond to you saying you don't have a much scum meta on me because my memory sucks, so I had to go look it up to make sure it was you that was Mafia with me and Espeonage in the last Jungle Republic (Open 713). So, unless your memory is as bad as mine; I believe you do at leas have a good idea of how scum me thinks and plans.

Almost50 · Post Post #562 (isolation #88) » Wed Apr 25, 2018 8:44 am

In post 560, Mathdino wrote:oh yeah you should have a better handle on montosh's meta here. i only had a bird's eye view

is montosh scum and why

also have you played with town montosh

If you want a