Touhou UCanPick 5 - [Game Over]

[Lexa]

also eddie's reads are notoriously strong and sheeping him isn't a bad plan at all, good odds he's at least 80% right on his calls

[Text Generator]

Imo, anyone stage one or two should stage-claim and we probably have better options than Kat's card today.

HS needs to post reads or die, imo.

[Katyusha]

I think a cop is better than a vig that’s about it

Or something of that caliber

I’d be happy to vig N2 if it means we get a daycop

[Text Generator]

I disagree, 1-shot vig puts us at evens, which is very little utility unless we have another kill or a protection.

[Text Generator]

Also I don't really doubt that your card does what you say, and that's part of the utility of card use.

[Katyusha]

A double flip is pretty neat though :shrug:

It’s more info, and with as many strong townreads we have it’s probably outweighed

Evens do suck though

[Gamma Emerald]

prolly going to have to wall post this

anyone vehemently opposed to reading walls?

fuckin jalmont pissed me off the last time just refusing to read it :/

tho only dle knows who that is ig

I don't mind

[Katyusha]

VoteCount 1.4

SXTLHGaiden [0] -
Sky_Paladin [0] -
Kiana Kaslana [0] -
Dunnstral [0] -
Eddie Cane [1] - Elbirn
Katyusha [0] -
Text Generator [0] -

Brian Skies [8] - Sky_Paladin, Gamma Emerald, Eddie Cane, Text Generator, Katyusha, Kiana Kaslana, Lexa, Brian Skies [LYNCH]

Lexa [1] - hebichan
DaLetterEl [0] -
Elbirn [0] -
hebichan [0] -
Purrcocet [0] -
Human Sequencer [2] - Dunnstral, Purrcocet
Gamma Emerald [1] - Human Sequencer

Not Voting [2]

- SXTLHGaiden, DaLetterEl

With 15 alive it takes 8 votes to lynch.

Countdown to deadline: (expired on 2018-03-30 16:00:00)

Anyway the reason I think Human is the vig today is that I don’t really scumread anyone else on the wagon, so the bulk of our conversation should be sorting on-wagon people who aren’t locktown (sky, tg, lexa). Purrcs Gaiden and hebi should like still step up and try though but I think they’re more likely town than human so

Plus the ancient wisdom here is on wagon if scum, off wagon if town

[Katyusha]

Anyone else off the wagon*

[Elbirn]

I'm at work but want to be included bleh

Lemme just pop in and note that your vig is literally useless if scum just self hammers

Carry on

[Lexa]

think i'm going to work through in 4-5 page chunks, hopefully cover the thread by bed


viewtopic.php?p=10044039#p10044039

gonna work through thoughts on katyusha's claim i guess. i think the way they've gone about announcing it is generally pro-town and the justifications for it are strong but i'm concerned their town read is based too much on the claim. it's set up in a way that if katy were to be scum they still have control over directing their kill towards not!scum by virtue of claiming a town read, or as we've seen potentially by a scum self hammer a la brian, while simultaneously removing the option of anyone else with a phase 1 action from using what may also be a strong action. if they're scum this can turn into a pretty easy free 'mislynch' on town. that being said, this is less of an actual concern and more of a contingency to watch out for if any other red flags show up from katy, from a role function perspective this seems as similar to claiming miller/ascetic as anything else


viewtopic.php?p=10044117#p10044117
[quote=Elbirn]"Lets shade the person with a confirmable town ability for some reason"[/quote]
Confirmable, sure. How could you ever know it's a town role?


viewtopic.php?p=10044173#p10044173

suck my lurky dick eddie


viewtopic.php?p=10044418#p10044418

content is bleh tone reads pretty town here from elbirn. easy to slip into the mindset he's in as town with justified indignation at being discredited, this early in the game scum is more likely to defend their stance than push back


viewtopic.php?p=10044674#p10044674

nothing concrete about 83/84 but just blehhhh posts


viewtopic.php?p=10044850#p10044850

brians first post. obviously nothing too damning but some things that i think are reasonable if you give it a bit of leeway
[quote=Brian]Considering I actually have an appropriately themed avatar and my account is older than yours, how about we just oust you instead?[/quote]
brian's second quote is a pushback against sky. oust carries pretty aggressive connotations and pushing back at sky with the implicit suggestion of a lynch in this way seems unlikely to come against scum paladin. hard to see brian's mindset as scum, especially one who's somewhat less experience, where he wants to aggressively distance from a buddy this early. i think this breaks in favour of sky paladin


viewtopic.php?p=10045104#p10045104

find it odd that text generator also caught the "explicitly town role" thing but didn't push on it as a result


dinner now, will come back to this after

[Katyusha]

Yes I know, that’s why I kind of want to make sure I’m the one l-1ing this time so I can make precautions

Pedit: will process when I’m not in a lab

[Katyusha]

Like where you’re going so far lexa

[Sky_Paladin]

Hey look at that, I RVS'd onto scum. I take no credit for this, I literally only voted him because he had Skies in his name.

VOTE: Human Sequencer

Sheeping Eddie because why solve the game myself if somebody else will do it for me eh~

[Lexa]

5-8

haven't seen anything specific from gamma to this point but 111 is something of a mindmeld so notable enough to mention. dont agree with his other sorting thing with brian but whatever works for you i guess. his posts have an air of...confidence which i find interesting, if not specifically indicative of anything. could see a situation where gamma feels like he's caught brian and he's in the flow of the game and he's in control.


viewtopic.php?p=10045502#p10045502
viewtopic.php?p=10045519#p10045519

this is actually a pretty valid reason to give katy a pass on role alone. conditional on her actually activating her role ofc


viewtopic.php?p=10045646#p10045646

i actually agree with human here, but at the same time i'm wondering if this is a scum waffle. like they want to push gamma for making a bad post but they don't think they can make a case against him without coming under fire cause the post is bad but not scummy, so they hedge their post to shade gamme but protect themselves. not really an impactful post of its own accord, but this is the first conscious thought i'm had about human so i'm noting it


viewtopic.php?p=10045741#p10045741

agree with this. very blatantly. too obvious a defense? not sure if this is a site distinction but on smogon scum partners don't tend to mind shading their partners if they make bad posts vs soft defending them, win in lylo a lot. not sure if the soft defense is reliable here


viewtopic.php?p=10045769#p10045769

this seems worse than human tbh, too much towards the flippant side of the defense, not enough of the confident read side to be a misguided town


viewtopic.php?p=10046188#p10046188

Eddie and probably one of Kiana or Lexa are scum; BS is provisionally town. The composition of the BS wagon, for the record, is actually bad. Gaiden might be scum too.

Katyusha changed her claim and should vig the L-1 wagon

after

an unvote to prove that her role is actually what she just said. If she can vig anyone who has ever been at L-1, I'd agree that that seems unlikely as a scum role.

VOTE: eddie cane

what the hell is this post

don't even know what to think about this right now red flag need to come back to tg hard

viewtopic.php?p=10046224#p10046224

eh, justifies eddie read a bit, curious where TG ends up at on a brian read/wagon

[Lexa]

man fuck walls

[Lexa]

9-12

viewtopic.php?p=10046348#p10046348

first thing i remember having any thought about on hebi, nothing specifically indicative but gut feels town, just sounds really pure


viewtopic.php?p=10046464#p10046464

ooh good catch, didn't notice that on human. yeah just calling gammas post bad but not scummy while you're voting for him definitely lines up with the scum waffle, first real lead, good place to do this

VOTE: Human Sequencer

I'm easy to talk to, I'll always work with people.

lel


these are some really empty posts i'm going through atm :/ only thing of any note through 259 is katy p much solidifying as town, super strong tone in the last several pages on top of the other points in favour

also reading elbirn is like watching paint dry


viewtopic.php?p=10046957#p10046957

agree that dle's posts have been ones more typically in his town wheelhouse, but they also aren't out of his scum one. null for me atm


viewtopic.php?p=10047000#p10047000

its at this point that i realize someone named gaiden is actually in this game o_o

i thought it was some rando that everyone else had played with a bunch...


viewtopic.php?p=10047075#p10047075

interesting that TG chooses to develop a read on kiana who hasn't really been in the thread at all while ignoring me when he'd had us both in the same category in 185. idk i'm feeling really null on this slot, their pushes and targets seem really off and stretchy and their softing of brian/maybe human looks bad but nothing they're saying actually really bleeds noticeably scummy. might just be town who's off the game atm.


viewtopic.php?p=10047086#p10047086

possible tvs with human/tg?


page 12 got a bit more interesting which i'm grateful for cause 10-11 fucking sucked to get through

[Lexa]

vig into lynch on human+text feels like a good space to aim for rn

[Text Generator]

elbirn is correct about the vig thing. If anyone can rolecop, I have a 100% never scum role.

[Katyusha]

i'm fine with the above

[Purrcocet]

human it's not looking good for u fam lol

[Lexa]

13-15

viewtopic.php?p=10047548#p10047548

TG abandoning brian to his doom on page 13 is a bit of an odd move to make as scum when you've already established a null read on him. reckon this speaks more in favour of town!tg


viewtopic.php?p=10047870#p10047870

purr is reading like how transcend plays when he's trolling as scum


viewtopic.php?p=10048898#p10048898

Kiana's whole series here is a very good look. Brian would have had to become the designated bus for scum at this point for this to be scum!kiana

[Text Generator]

I agree about HS 249. I didn't have any confident reads at the time, and HS was, I think, correctly identifying the sort of disjointedness of that post.

I guess for an update on reads: I think the EC nk and Brian flip implicate HS to a certain extent, but I'd wait until they catch-up or choose not to before voting them. Kiana's catch-up was bad, recapitulating things that had already been mentioned in thread and only serving to ingratiate herself to EC and Kat. Lexa's catch-up is good and I'm pretty confident she's town.

[Lexa]

just had a thought, human was the counterwagon to brian right? what reasons does brian have to self hammer other than to brick the vig if he's not giving his buddy a shot to live

[Purrcocet]

can 1 of u tell me what L human is at pls