[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/ext/alfredoramos/seometadata/event/listener.php on line 114: Undefined array key 10049743 [phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/ext/alfredoramos/seometadata/event/listener.php on line 114: Trying to access array offset on value of type null On Self-Appraisal (How To Become Great) - Mafiascum.net
yo MD this article is great and overlaps a lot with the way I try to play the game, even put some ideas into words that were kicking around somewhere in my head but that I hadn't considered so explicitly before. Thanks for writing it
"I think I no longer believe in monsters as faces in the floor or feral infants or vampires or whatever. I think at seventeen now I believe the only real monsters might be the type of liar where there's simply no way to tell. The ones who give nothing away"
In post 0, Mathdino wrote:Honestly, this kind of Bayesian reasoning can apply to anything. Identify your strengths and how confident you can be in them. Identify your weaknesses and when you shouldn't be confident in something. Identify the strengths and weaknesses of others, compare, and teamwork becomes easy.
also make sure to Bayesian analyze individual posts
like if you see a post that is absolutely super unfathomably unlikely to come from scum - such that Probability(Player made post [x] given that Player is scum) is ~0, then it doesn't really matter how much decent evidence you had before for them being scum, they're probably town. I have the highest success for accurate townreads when I find good towntell posts like this.
Same thing goes for scumreads if you find posts that are almost impossible to come from town. Unfortunately, those posts are more rare both because people are trying their hardest to avoid making them and because generally in your experience (and in each game), the volume of townposts >> volume of scumposts
"I think I no longer believe in monsters as faces in the floor or feral infants or vampires or whatever. I think at seventeen now I believe the only real monsters might be the type of liar where there's simply no way to tell. The ones who give nothing away"
