On Self-Appraisal (How To Become Great)

[mhsmith0]

thing goes for scumreads if you find posts that are almost impossible to come from town. Unfortunately, those posts are more rare both because people are trying their hardest to avoid making them and because generally in your experience (and in each game), the volume of townposts >> volume of scumposts

Also (imo) because there’s a substantial source of error in using “well I would never make that post as town” as a proxy for “well THAT player would never make that post as town”

[mhsmith0]

80% of my null reads are town.

That seems about right. Most setups have around 80% of

players

as town. So if you have no information about a player (or think it all cancels out), they'll be about 80% likely to be town.

I can’t tell if this is right or wrong

Someone smart help me

Who can know if the path we choose is right or wrong? I will fear no reproach. For man is a creature of sorrow and regret, and ever will be.

[mhsmith0]

80% of my null reads are town.

That seems about right. Most setups have around 80% of

players

as town. So if you have no information about a player (or think it all cancels out), they'll be about 80% likely to be town.

If anything, that's actually something of a positive, as I think it's a fairly common bias for peoples' null zones to be unusually wolf-heavy.

[mhsmith0]

I have a few answers, but as always, publishing tells all over the place is a great way to invalidate those tells. You pick those kinds of things up over time, whether by yourself, or by listening to the logic of other players.

Certain things are easy to fake, certain things are hard to fake.

The manner in which people try to solve the game, the depth and quality of reasoning, the emotional investment, the attitude of "aggressive curiosity" (as it was put to me by a veteran player on another forum), etc etc... most of these things are difficult to mimic.

Angry yelling is easy to mimic. Pushing on wolves (i.e. distancing/bussing) is easy to mimic (though sometimes dumb to actually do as a wolf). etc etc

[mhsmith0]

Well, it largely depends on how you define "about"

10/13 is 77%
7/9 is 78%
etc

OTOH if you're tonw, then you're really concerned with the OTHER players, and then it turns out to be exactly 75% for all standard numbers formats (this is because standard numbers has T = 3*M + 1, and if you take yourself out, it's just T (excluding you) = 3 * M)

[mhsmith0]

Like there are a fuck ton of skills required to win a game of mafia and good reads alone wont win you a game.

Terrible reads will lose you games tho, especially if they’re high confidence ones.