Open Setup Autopsies (HELP)

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Post Post #46  (isolation #0)  » Sat Jan 27, 2018 5:48 am

In post 5, Mathdino wrote:
POLYGAMIST4 Mafia Lovers (1 set)
8 Town Lovers (4 sets)

- Nightless.

Lot to dig into here. To start off, I would argue that there's little value in NOT claiming your lover on Day 1, and it seems like everyone who's played this game has done the same. If anyone has a strategy for this that involves not claiming, do tell.

So if everyone does claim (with scum dividing in 2 and claiming 2 pairs), that makes this essentially a 2:4 Nightless White Flag setup with 6 non-consenting hydrae. This makes the setup extremely unfun. Furthermore, any given townie has only 5 other "slots" to sort.

As played normally, this setup is scumsided. In theory, White Flag means scum can't bus. In practice, scum just runs each other up to L-1 all the time and claims they're totally okay with bussing. Scum's ideal strategy is to distance their pairs as much as possible (or at least treat each other as town). Doing so almost completely removes town's ability to scumhunt. Plus, since the game ends after 2 mislynches, most towns will screw up. This setup is unforgiving.

However, FURTHERMORE, this setup has a breaking strategy. Literally random lynching creates a 60% winrate for town. Why is the actual town winrate 36%? Because in reality, lynches are not random, and scum's high volume of players means they can control the narrative much better. Just one town lover pair not voting for scum is a loss for the other 6 townies.

Now if lynches were random (which people say is against site rules but I can't find this), you'd get 60%, but suppose the town agreed on a single lover pair as a town king (to just decide or dice roll 2 lynches). This leads to a winrate of 70%. Town's optimal strategy is just to find one pair that's being townish and have them roll 2 lynches. Done.

I recently won this setup by reading a low-experience lover pair as newbtown and then sheeping their RVS vote the entire game. Lucked out and we won. When correct play as town is to leave everything in the hands of chance, this is even more unfun for the players involved. You could argue "well don't do that", but then that punishes players playing to win.

Fixing this:

One player from that game said they were trying to rework it, but I don't think this is salvageable. I don't think this setup should run again, and the majority of players from that last game agreed.

Add another town pair of lovers. Or two.

The issue is simply numbers as far as I can tell.

This isn't going to fix this from being a fairly boring setup though.

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Post Post #47  (isolation #1)  » Sat Jan 27, 2018 5:55 am

In post 3, Mathdino wrote:
SWITCH
Spoiler: Roles
1 Mafia Cop Switch
1 Mafia Doc Switch
1 Mafia Vig Switch
1 Serial Killer (with Mafia NK Immunity OR Vig/Cop Immunity)
1 Cop
1 Doctor
1 Vigilante
7 Townies

- Nightstart.
- Every night town PRs are "on" by default.
- Mafiosos that do not perform the NK can "switch" a town PR off.
- SK can kill and also choose to switch any or all of the 3, potentially switching PRs back on.

This setup is insanely swingy.

Going through the game history on the wiki page, town has never won a game in which 2 townies died on N0. The last iteration of this setup even had a cop get a N0 guilty. Town lynched 3 scum in 3 days, then mislynched a single time (in LyLo) and lost.

A nightstart game where the alignment of the killed completely changes the game isn't acceptable. In the case that cop and SK both kill townies every night (as is optimal play for both of them), town can only survive 1 mislynch. 2 if the vig shoots town. The win should never be completely outside the realm of possibility for a team.

Meanwhile, if SK shoots mafia N0, the win is practically guaranteed for town or SK.

On a second note this setup is unfun.

Nightstart with a cop ruins the game for both the cop and the caught mafia member, making this more about night play than day play. I was the cop.
Nightstart is also bad for the up-to-3 players that can die N0.

Fixing this:

Nightstart with a cop and 3 killers is straight up bad. But daystart messes with the switch mechanics.

Would it be better as just 14p Daystart?

This game is outdated, was likely made when site meta was night start.

I also just think the mechanic is a bit silly and pointless. Why do you want to salvage the setup?

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Post Post #48  (isolation #2)  » Sat Jan 27, 2018 6:15 am

Making it daystart will probably fix it enough regardless.

Also have the SK choose their immunity night 1.

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Post Post #49  (isolation #3)  » Sat Jan 27, 2018 6:39 am

In post 2, Alisae wrote:How is town supposed to win Watchmen Wanted again? Also why is plurality splashed in here for like no reason at all? Like, I like plurality but it seems to be here for no reason lol.

To prevent continuous no lynching to get watcher reports. Make this setup 13p and it's probably okay tbh. Though the mechanic is a bit boring and the backup being randomly chosen is a bit inelegant but I don't have a better and elegant solution that doesn't allow for breaking strategies.

In post 2, Alisae wrote:Semi-Nightless? Go play Mountainous games instead.

This setup is fine

In post 2, Alisae wrote:Duck Duck Goose? HEY, YOU KNOW WHAT HEALTHY GAMEPLAY INVOLVES? GIVING TOWN 1 FREE SCUM FLIP. G O O D S E T U P D E S I G N. Fucking brilliant.

It has an 80% mafia winrate so what is your argument here. Adding 2 VTs would probably be ideal for the winrate.

In post 2, Alisae wrote:Faith +1. 3 Clears easily, Cop + Doc isn't really a good pairing, and percentage roles aren't fun like how they are currently designed here.

I designed Hope+1 to replace this cause it's just broken by design.

In post 2, Alisae wrote:Town should always stomp Nightless Vanilla?

Not always, but generally sure

In post 2, Alisae wrote:Polygamist - I think town only has one mislynch otherwise if they mislynch again they lose.

Add two lover pairs to town.

In post 2, Alisae wrote:Diffusion of Power - More Cops, More Docs, Shit Setups.

The winrate on this is pretty good, what is your argument even

In post 2, Alisae wrote:Hard Boiled - atleast give scum a roleblocker, daytalk, and maybe a Rolecop? Otherwise its really townsided.

Force town to choose Tracker (it's gamethrowing to do otherwise), give Mafia a Rolecop. Or, more interestingly, force town to choose Vig and add a VT and keep Mafia as is.

In post 2, Alisae wrote:Hope +1 - play a Cop 13er on MU, its better.

Play Dota 2 it's better

In post 2, Alisae wrote:Pick your poison - No reason to pick outside of the following: IC, {Tracker/Cop}, {The other out of Tracker/Cop OR Vig}

I agree with this one, the power needs to be changed a little, Jailkeeper is way better than the other roles.

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Post Post #50  (isolation #4)  » Sat Jan 27, 2018 6:44 am

Add two VTs to switch too, make it 16p.

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Post Post #54  (isolation #5)  » Sat Jan 27, 2018 6:59 am

In post 52, Mathdino wrote:
In post 50, BBmolla wrote:Add two VTs to switch too, make it 16p.

I think it's gonna have to be either/or. Either add VTs or daystart. Honestly I think daystart will fix most of this setup's issues. I might run that to see how it goes.

I mean the inherent problem here is that if mafia and SK repeatedly fuck each other's switches over, town has a hilarious inordinate amount of power. It can't be saved from that inherent swinginess in the concept, but I think it can be saved by the swinginess of N0 kills.

A typical mini has 3 mafia, 10 town

so 3 mafia, 1 sk, 10 town is silly

it should be 16.

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Post Post #55  (isolation #6)  » Sat Jan 27, 2018 7:04 am

In post 51, Mathdino wrote:POLYGAMIST
Yeah this is basically a hydra version of Lover's Mafia. Adding another townie in a nightless would break it in favour of town. 71% winrate on random lynch.

Would it help if a townie pair was added and the mafia quad was split into two mafia pairs? That might defeat the whole point of the setup but it looks like the quad being together is what makes random lynching so prevalent.

In post 51, Mathdino wrote:DUCK DUCK GOOSE
I assume by 2 VTs you mean 2 1-shot PGOs? In that case yeah sounds good.

I do.

In post 51, Mathdino wrote:HARD BOILED
I'm not convinced this is 100% broken yet... but this is a discussion that needs to be had for sure IMO.

It's just a bit aimless at the moment. Too late to look at now, will look in depth later.

In post 51, Mathdino wrote:PICK YOUR POISON
My understanding is that Stack The Deck was specifically designed to counter Pick Your Poison's design flaws? Why is Pick Your Poison still running?

no idea

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Post Post #57  (isolation #7)  » Sat Jan 27, 2018 3:11 pm

What's the random lynching winrate for Polygamy if town is just made into 8 VTs?

That increases town winrate for random lynching doesn't it.

mm.
Last edited by BBmolla on Sat Jan 27, 2018 3:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Post Post #59  (isolation #8)  » Sat Jan 27, 2018 3:34 pm

Lovers and Losers

9 Players:
3 Mafia Lovers
4 Town Lovers (2 pairs)
2 VTs


  • Daystart
  • Nightless
  • Only one VT may get lynched and only one Town Lover may get lynched.
  • If someone attempts to lynch a role that has already been lynched, the game ends in a mafia victory.


Lovers and Loners

9 Players:
3 Mafia Lovers
4 Town Lovers (2 pairs)
2 VTs


  • Daystart
  • Nightless
  • There are two public groups, "Lovers" and "Loners." The two VTs are in "Loners" and the four Town Lovers are in "Lovers." Pregame, Mafia choose one player to be in the "Loner" group and two to be in the "Lover" group.
  • Only two members from each group may be lynched
  • If at any time mafia outnumber or equal the number of town, they win.


Eh?

I'm bad with EV stuff but I think random lynching is unideal in both these setups. Might be the right direction?

4 Mafia Lovers in unworkable due to random lynching I think, but 3 is more fun anyway.

I think the top EV is something like 17% town winrate so probably the bottom is better.

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Post Post #60  (isolation #9)  » Sat Jan 27, 2018 3:45 pm

Actually if I did the math right, I think town has a 77% chance of victory on the second setup soo

Someone confirm that, I'll think on it to see if there's anything I can do to find something in between with a much more reasonable winrate.

Edit: Ignore me I'm doing some seriously wrong math. Someone calculate the winrates on those for me.

Is it top 55% and bottom 77% for town win?

(assuming optimal strategy for the bottom one which is lynching VTs first.)

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Post Post #61  (isolation #10)  » Sat Jan 27, 2018 3:54 pm

55% is at least a little better than 60% eh?

I'll think on it more.

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Post Post #62  (isolation #11)  » Sat Jan 27, 2018 4:29 pm

Polygamy For All

14 Players:
4 Mafia Lovers
10 Town Lovers (5 pairs)

  • Daystart
  • After every lynch, mafia choose two of their players to make publicly lynch immune. (So town gets two lynches total)


42.9% town winrate, there, done.

Polygamy For You and Me

16 Players:
4 Mafia Lovers
1 Mafia Double Lover

11 Town Lovers (5 pairs)

  • Daystart
  • Mafia Double Lover is in Love with a Townie as well as all his Mafia buddies.
  • After the first mislynch, the 4 Mafia Lovers become publicly lynch immune.
  • After the second mislynch, if the Mafia Double Lover lives, mafia win.


48% town winrate boom, happy?
Last edited by BBmolla on Sat Jan 27, 2018 4:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Post Post #63  (isolation #12)  » Sat Jan 27, 2018 4:30 pm

4 Mafia Lovers itself is so insanely townsided it's hard to even balance around it lmfao

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Post Post #78  (isolation #13)  » Mon Mar 05, 2018 9:31 pm

Masons and Monks and Paladins, Oh My!

13 Players:
2 Mafia Goons
2 Werewolves
9 Vanilla Townies

  • Daystart
  • Two players who are not Mafia are randomly selected to be Masons.
  • Two players who are not Werewolves are randomly selected to be Monks.
  • Two players who are not Mafia or Werewolves are randomly selected to be Paladins.
  • These masonries are allowed to talk together at night.
  • It is possible for a Mafia Goon to be a Monk, and likewise, a Werewolf to be a Mason.
  • Mafia cannot have both the Monk roles, and Werewolves cannot have both Mason roles.
  • Players can not be in multiple masonries.

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Post Post #79  (isolation #14)  » Mon Mar 05, 2018 9:35 pm

Alternatively

Masons and Monks and Seeking Paladins, Oh My!

13 Players:
2 Mafia Goons
2 Werewolves
9 Vanilla Townies

  • Daystart
  • Two players who are not Mafia are randomly selected to be Masons.
  • Two players who are not Werewolves are randomly selected to be Monks.
  • These masonries are allowed to talk together at night.
  • Three players who are not Mafia or Werewolves are randomly selected to be Seeking Paladins. This is a masonry who starts not knowing who the other members are. Each night, a Paladin may target another player. If they target someone who is a Paladin, they will join the Paladin PT together and may talk together at night.
  • It is possible for a Mafia Goon to be a Monk, and likewise, a Werewolf to be a Mason.
  • Mafia cannot have both the Monk roles, and Werewolves cannot have both Mason roles.
  • Players can not be in multiple masonries.


But that has potential to have 5 clears on day 3 if literally everything goes wrong.

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Post Post #81  (isolation #15)  » Mon Mar 05, 2018 9:37 pm

Alternatively, the Paladins can just have a cop ability for other Paladins and not actually be able to join together in a PT.

Depends what seems most interesting.

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Post Post #82  (isolation #16)  » Wed Mar 07, 2018 2:16 am

Thoughts?

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Post Post #89  (isolation #17)  » Sat Mar 31, 2018 8:12 pm

In post 62, BBmolla wrote:
Polygamy For All

14 Players:
4 Mafia Lovers
10 Town Lovers (5 pairs)

  • Daystart
  • After every lynch, mafia choose two of their players to make publicly lynch immune. (So town gets two lynches total)


42.9% town winrate, there, done.

Polygamy For You and Me

16 Players:
4 Mafia Lovers
1 Mafia Double Lover

11 Town Lovers (5 pairs)

  • Daystart
  • Mafia Double Lover is in Love with a Townie as well as all his Mafia buddies.
  • After the first mislynch, the 4 Mafia Lovers become publicly lynch immune.
  • After the second mislynch, if the Mafia Double Lover lives, mafia win.


48% town winrate boom, happy?

yo did I do the math wrong here? I'm getting different numbers now.

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Post Post #91  (isolation #18)  » Sun Apr 01, 2018 2:48 am

Yeah those were the numbers I got today

Can’t even figure out wtf I did

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Post Post #93  (isolation #19)  » Sun Apr 01, 2018 3:44 am

Fun and balanced are two different things as well

It was more of a challenge to see if it was possible to balance

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Post Post #95  (isolation #20)  » Wed Apr 04, 2018 10:01 pm

Masons and Monks Deluxe

13 Players:
2 Mafia Goons
2 Werewolves
1 Town Doctor Monk
1 Town Vigilante Mason
7 Vanilla Townies


  • Daystart
  • Two vanilla players who are not Mafia are randomly selected to be Masons.
  • Two vanilla players who are not Werewolves are randomly selected to be Monks.
  • These masonries are allowed to talk together at night.
  • It is possible for a Mafia Goon to be a Monk, and likewise, a Werewolf to be a Mason.
  • Players can not be in multiple masonries.
  • If neither Mafia is a monk, they gain a factional rolecop.
  • If neither Werewolf is a mason, they gain a factional rolecop.


This is unbalanced one way or the other, how significant of an advantage would one scum team have versus the other? I assume that Mafia has the advantage in theory yes?

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Post Post #97  (isolation #21)  » Wed Apr 04, 2018 11:15 pm

Masons and Monks Redux

13 Players:
2 Mafia Goons
2 Werewolves
1 Town Doctor
1 Town Vigilante
7 Vanilla Townies


  • Daystart
  • Two vanilla players who are not Mafia are randomly selected to be Masons.
  • Two vanilla players who are not Werewolves are randomly selected to be Monks.
  • These masonries are allowed to talk together at night.
  • It is possible for a Mafia Goon to be a Monk, and likewise, a Werewolf to be a Mason.
  • Players can not be in multiple masonries.
  • If neither Mafia is a monk, they gain a factional rolecop.
  • If neither Werewolf is a mason, they gain a factional rolecop.


Maybe simpler is better.

Going a step further though, if Mafia/Werewolves had the option to choose to have either one them as the masons/monks or the factional rolecop, which choice would be better?

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Post Post #99  (isolation #22)  » Thu Apr 05, 2018 1:39 am

Ooh good call.

Meditation

13 Players:
2 Mafia Goons
2 Werewolves
1 Town Angel Monk
1 Town Doctor Mason
7 Vanilla Townies


  • Daystart
  • Two vanilla players who are not Mafia are randomly selected to be Masons.
  • Two vanilla players who are not Werewolves are randomly selected to be Monks.
  • These masonries are allowed to talk together at night.
  • It is possible for a Mafia Goon to be a Monk, and likewise, a Werewolf to be a Mason.
  • Players can not be in multiple masonries.
  • If neither Mafia is a monk, they gain a factional rolecop.
  • If neither Werewolf is a mason, they gain a factional rolecop.


In this way scum have incentive to try to be townie enough to get the town protector to protect them from the other scumteam. With three members in the masonry it discourages just killing the PR because otherwise the other mason will probably out you.

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Post Post #103  (isolation #23)  » Wed May 23, 2018 6:43 am

Jungle Republic should end in mafia victory if the game state is 2:2:1 with 1 being town.

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Post Post #104  (isolation #24)  » Wed May 23, 2018 6:49 am

Just to be clear this is not relevant to any ongoing games I just came across the setup on the wiki and was reminded of the game I was in where this happened and it sucked


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