On Nash equilibria and calculating EVs

[yessiree]

I think Occam's Razor applies to a good extend for the purpose of calculating EV. In order to get a rough idea of how a setup might fare

on average

, the simplest solution is

usually

the best.

Of course, the results you get are purely theoretical and far from how it might play out in practice for a particular case. But the beauty of it is that the numbers will most likely converge to those theoretical results given a large enough data set. So the reason assuming random lynches works for this purpose is something I find pretty simple but also profound at the same time.

[yessiree]

I think more towns would win if they realized that voting for the least scummy player is more likely to be the correct move in 3P LyLo.

If you're alive in 3P LyLo, scum has decided to bring you there. It wasn't a coincidence. I think I've been in like two as town, and one of them was as a replacement.

Unfortunately the sort of people who realize this on self-reflection are not the sort of people who make it to 3P LyLo. Trust me, I've been on the trigger, the thing you're thinking is "who has the self-reflection to ask why GreyICE is alive in 3P LyLo along with their strongest scumread, rather than voting the person who is 'obviously' scum"

I wonder what numbers we get after applying the Nash Equilibrium theorem

lynch the least scummy player 1/3 of the time for optimal town play?