In post 462, Mathdino wrote:Your Comprehensive Guide to Cogito Ergo Scum
I. His team is all town and he's scum
Let's get the out of game stuff out of the way first.
1. Between the unflipped members of his team, he is likely the scum. I would be confident in calling him better scum than CDB. Their last Team Mafia, they used tokens to make Patrick and Fenchurch town.
2. His team never weighs in.
Let's take a look at Patrick's game:
-
1117, CDB weighs in.
-
1380, CDB weighs in again.
-
3409, Patrick describes a discussion with his team.
From Fenchurch's game:
-
1996, questions from her team.
-
2603, CES discusses Fench's role.
-
2604, singer and Patrick weigh in.
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2617, singer weighs in.
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2790, CES posts FOR Fench.
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2804, CES, Patrick, AND singer all weigh in.
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2813, CES.
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3181, CES.
-
3911, CES.
From singer's game (you can't post this part):
-
2727, reads from her team.
-
2810, plans from her team.
-
3194, discussions with her team.
-
3752, strategy from her team.
And lastly, CDB's game, which I'm townreading:
-
58, team agrees on a vote.
-
648, Patrick weighs in.
-
722, entire team agrees LLD can be scum.
-
1423, proof his team is following the game.
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1669, singer weighs in.
-
2423, team assisted reads.
-
2561, team asks him to do a thing.
There is clear and consistent evidence that this team was reading Patrick's, Fench's, CDB's, and singer's games. Specifically,
- CDB read Patrick's game.
- CES, Patrick, and singer read Fenchurch's game.
- Unclear who read singer's game.
- Patrick, singer, and maybe more read CDB's game.
Now CES's game:
-
I ctrl+F'd the following:
- cdb
- chann
- singer
- Fen
- Pat
- my team
- goo
Absolutely.
Nothing.
His team should give more of a shit about this game, being that it's the one that town is losing the hardest.
Yet his team spends significantly more time on Ether's game, which lynched 2 scum in 2 days, and Fench's game, which had 2 guilties.
Ask them to do the research themselves. This can be easily backed up.
II. His vote and scumread progressions are awful
1.
He (serious?) votes Llamarble and never explains why.
2.
He argues that Marquis is the scummiest of the lurkers {Dunnstral, wgeurts, Marquis} but again doesn't explain why. He just calls Marquis scummy. Repeatedly.
He later explains in
526. His reasons?
- Marquis is awkward (FUCKING LOLREASON)
- A single scumgame meta toneread? Based on
A 2015 game?
He pushes this meta logic but doesn't explain rigourously. It's just "well the tone is similar". This is easily fakable. This is apparently good enough for CES to scumread Marquis through the entire goddamn game.
3.
Votes Postie very shortly, probably influenced by
Llama's previous post. Later justifies it by arguing that
Postie is good at looking good without doing much. She asked questions and didn't follow up. But then he says he agrees with her case on Fenix?
He's setting Postie up to look bad in the case of a Fenix townflip. At this point, I don't think the scumteam had agreed on killing Postie yet.
4.
He switches vote to Gamma, a wagon we all agree was bad. Why? Because of Gamma's case in
702 on Tchill. What's bad about it? CES doesn't talk about it lol.
He later explains it in
1567, arguing that Gamma is more concerned with justifying his votes than convincing other people. Meh. Gamma is known to be uncharismatic.
He of course completely drops this later on. You know, after people collectively start agreeing the Gamma wagon is bad and that Gamma is town.
5. He hammers Screenplay. I don't need to link this. His progression on that slot:
-
662, aka "WELL SOME THINGS ARE SCUMMY BUT THERE'S ALSO A TOWNTELL".
-
820, doesn't take a hard stance on Tchill.
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1025, aka "Hmm I'm starting to like the Tchill wagon!"
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1179, argues that Screenplay would swap into a town slot. wat. Literally no one on his entire team has ever used this as a reason to scumread someone.
-
1185, aka "You're right, Postie could definitely be scum, but meh on Tchill-scum"
-
1217, hammertime.
He claims in
2534 that he detailed his read change on Screenplay. He did not.
We don't have to harp on the hammer. That's fine. Hammering was the pro-town move.
The point is that half the time he claims he was justified in scumreading Tchill more, when that read change was ONLY due to Screenplay's swap-in, and perceived desire to survive. The other half of the time he just claims hammering was the correct move to avoid a no lynch (this is true).
I believe CES didn't want to be on the shit-ass Gamma wagon at the end of the day, and shoddily justified a switch onto CES, when he could've just said "fuck it, I'm hammering to avoid a no lynch" and justified that til the end of time.
6.
Back to voting Marquis on D2. Shea tries to get him on the Fenix wagon, CES
argues that Eddie is more likely scum, but Marquis sets them up for 2 scum lynches. Whaaaaat.
7. Jumps on the Eddie wagon, no real indication why the switch.
Recall that he sets up Eddie vs Postie as TvS, continuing his discredit on both of their slots from D1.
His argument for his Eddie scumread is that Eddie doesn't move the game forward and doesn't vote or pressure people. Dead weight basically.
Later argues
to not let Eddie outlurk his wagon, a line he previously used on Marquis. Is uninterested in going after Quick (this is why I thought they were scum together).
8. Come D3, back to Marquis, for the final time.
These are the things CES has voted people for:
- Lurking (3 people)
- Bad push (Gamma is uncharismatic, who knew)
- Looking more interested in looking good than solving the game/moving the game forward (3 people)
- RVS? (Llama)
CES is systematically removing all of the bad and uncharismatic players from this game. He then starts scumreading NSG after she starts actively pushing him. He does not, however, actively scumread Dunnstral and ActionDan, both of whom he's considered as potential scumpartners, but also are not people who have confronted CES, nor were they viable lynch candidates.
Marquis has always been viable.
Tchill and Eddie both actually happened.
Gamma looked viable given that a few people were like "HMM YEAH THAT CASE SUCKED".
Postie looked viable by virtue of Llamarble's signature.
His votes are opportunistic. They follow an agenda.
Note that there's no evidence that any of his team has played anything like this
. In fact, his teammates have notably NOT gone after the lurkers (or at least not pushed on the basis of lurking).
- Patrick voted active people, voted Cabd due to claim business, and only voted Ari when there weren't better options.
- Fenchurch voted active people, and voted sheep due to claim business.
- (can't post this) CDB went after Bulbazak instead of UCV, Aeronaut, etc. CDB was in fact himself a lurker.
CES's vote progression should be utterly ridiculous to his entire goddamn team. But no comment from them.
An ancillary check at
TM2015 White Flag shows that he doesn't in fact vote lurkers all the time. He has pretty well developed reads that just don't match up here. Note that I'm not claiming he has less of a presence here; that's due to real life.
I'm claiming that his scumhunting in this game is far more robotic. Automatic. Not nearly as thought-through.
III. CES's townreads are undeveloped
Look through his ISO and literally ctrl+F "Town". Because that's how I'm doing this. Here are all of the times he's called someone town:
1.
662, in which he claims Tchill has towntell'd but still scumreads him.
2.
1663, in which he says Llama said something townish.
3.
1397, in which he argues that 1392 shows Quick having an intricate pro-town mindset.
4.
1596, Lycanfire is town because he's so vehement about scumreading CES. And Shea is Sheaey so let's sheep Llamarble.
5.
1764, Ranmaru is his strongest townread.
6.
2223, Davsto generally sounds town, but he needs to take a closer look.
Hilariously, this apparently goes away after Davsto votes him.
7.
2610, Quick is solidly town from the sheer volume of posts with a pro-town voice.
...and that's it.
The people CES has ever explicitly claimed to townread: {Llama, Quick, Lycan, Ranmaru, Davsto}. Then he also sheeps townreads from the dead on {Shea, NSG}.
He drops the NSG and Davsto townreads after they vote him. Meaning CES's town is literally just {Ranmaru, Quick, Lycan, Shea}. His reasoning on Lycan and Shea were shoddy enough to be able to switch later on. The only people I can't see CES justifying a vote for are Ranmaru and Quick.
He's keeping his options open.
And again, refer to TM2015 White Flag. Ctrl+F for "town". Look at all the townreads. CES isn't the same.
IV. NKA and Misuse of NKA
This'll be brief. It just has to do with Llama, Postie, and CES's thoughts on them.
1. Llamarble's ISO, mentions of CES (outside of reads lists):
-
215, lynch CES in LyLo no matter what. Can't think of why CES would want dueling Marble/Marquis wagons as town.
-
343, CES is null, and
strong players always appear town early on.
-
347, lynch CES in LyLo, Llama has been buddied by a strong CES-scum before, don't let it happen this game.
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408, CES is scum if any of {Tchill, Lycan, AD} is town.
-
516, scumteam is {Quick, Tchill, CES}.
- [ ... 910770]537, CES is still an autolynch in LyLo, he's difficult to read.
-
582, could easily believe CES+AD.
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664, scum voting Tchill could be {Dunn, Quick}, scumteam in {Dunn, Quick, AD, CES} could work.
-
722, CES scum with Tchill, there are a few more posts where Llama continually calls CES scum with Tchill.
- THE IMPORTANT POST:
875,
In some order, we are lynching Tchill, the entire Gamma wagon (CES AD LQ) and Eddie.
. LLAMA WAS KILLED BECAUSE THIS STRATEGY WORKS. He can't see CES flipping town, but he wants all votes on CES if CES makes it to LyLo.
DO NOT IGNORE THE READS OF THE DEAD. THIS WAS CRUCIAL.
- ANOTHER IMPORTANT POST:
930, give CES some game days
but if town isn't winning by day before LyLo, CES is scum
. He is a dangerous scum player who is capable of not getting lynched.
(also notice that Llama advocates lynching whoever is still alive in LyLo despite the fact that they should've been NK'd. This likely means Shea is actually scum FTR)
-
1146, he likes Ranmaru's list but wants CES lower because CES can fake this behaviour as scum.
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1160, CES/Postie are dangerous if left alive for too long. Do not let live to LyLo.
Then Llama is dead.
2. While we're at it, let's look at Llama's thoughts on Marquis, CES's preferred lynch:
- Early scumread on Marquis, I'm too lazy to go through this.
- We slowly see Marquis move up Llama's lynchlists, see
630, with Marquis as the 5th scummiest player.
- Updates in
649 to saying Marquis is town enough to not lynch, while Dunn can be lynched.
- By
812 Marquis is null.
- In THE IMPORTANT POST, Llama explicitly advocates leaving Marquis alive in LyLo.
-
886, Llama claims there are very good reasons not to lynch {Gamma, Dunn, Lycan, Davsto, Marquis}
-
1160, final reads list, claims Marquis will deservedly get a lot of flak for lurking, and hopefully town can sus out their alignments.
There is no reason for Llamarble to be killed if Marquis is scum, unless Marquis is also scum with anyone in {CES, AD, Quick}.
3. Postie's mentions of CES:
-
1468, accuses CES of not reading the thread.
-
1979, RC slight townreads CES.
That's it, this isn't AI.
Postie's mentions of Marquis in D2:
-
1474, Marquis is out of touch and shouldn't be taken seriously.
-
1606, Marquis and Quick were counterwagons to Eddie.
Other things:
- NSG is locktown. Postie repeats this constantly.
RC can read NSG better than almost anyone on this site. Mathdino can personally confirm this. I want Ranmaru to ask his ENTIRE team about this as well.
- RC thinks Lycan/Davsto hardtown. Ok. Same.
- RC thinks Ranmaru and Gamma can both be scum (this is likely influenced by RC's tunnel on Fenix).
- Postie's personal top scumread is Dunnstral.
- RC repeatedly called Shea scum, saying RC in no way trusts him. RC later backed off, arguing that discrediting Shea was important just in case.
Postie NK definitely points significantly more to Shea and Dunnstral than CES. That said, Shea/Dunn are both likely partners with CES, so whatever.
Furthermore, there's no indication Postie would ever have gone after Marquis or NSG the next day. RC would've rained fire and fury on town if this happened.
Postie was killed to make these options.
4. Llamarble misuses NKA very badly.
- In
1557, CES argues that Llama's final reads list in
1160 is better for NKA. This is dead wrong.
The key is in figuring out what Llamarble WOULD'VE said going into D2. His worldview at the time was clearly shaped by Tchill-scum. Marble drops the lurkers down places because they're just not there, but he would definitely have been able to sort the lurkers if he were still around.
However, Marble was ADAMANT that we not let CES in particular live too long if town isn't winning by the day before LyLo (tomorrow). Marble also makes it clear that that reads list wasn't "lynch from the bottom up"; he noted that there's probably one scum around the middle in "good but hard to read".
Marble was more dangerous to CES than any other player in the game, and Marble was killed.
-
1596, he sheeps Llama's read on Shea. Suggesting Llamarble would continue to strong townread Shea for the remainder of the game is questionable. Llama argued that Shea is playing very well, is playing pro-town, and had done more for the town than anyone else,
under the impression that Tchill was scum
.
Llama ALSO argued that town needs to lynch anyone who shouldn't be alive as the game goes on.
That is Shea.
That is also CES.
Llama ALSOOO argued that because Shea is playing too well to lynch, if he's scum, we need to lynch his buddies, which is entirely accurate, and which can 100% be done by following Llama's plan.
-
2690, claims that if CES doesn't care about Llama's townreads, no one will, and town loses a source of information.
No, GTFO.
Shea is/was never in danger of being lynched, and Llama made that clear. Hilariously, CES says this AFTER POSTIE/RCslot IS KILLED. This is a ridiculous train of thought, and CES doesn't defend against the CES/TSQ accusation well at all.
-
2742, in which CES argues that Llama knows Shea in real life, and therefore should be able to accurately read him.
Forgets that Llama noted that all strong players are going to seem town on D1, and that Llama was biased by
A. Shea being the primary person active
B. Thinking Tchill was scum
C. It's literally D1.
Llama being capable of reading Shea well, getting killed, followed by no one pushing Shea, is fantastic evidence for Shea being scum.
CES sheeping this D1 read while completely ignoring Llama's path to victory is straight up bad. And selective.
-
2223, suggests that Postie was killed because scum wanted to take out a scummy player with unknown reads. That's literally wrong, Postie/RC had known reads that had nothing to do with Eddie.
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2334, claims that Postiekill could've been to make NSG look better so she could steer away from lynching Marquis.
What. The. Fuck?
In what universe does NSG have more clout to counterwagon Marquis when Postie is dead as opposed to being alive?!
NSG is more townish the more RC defends her. I guarantee Postie's team and NSG don't open D3 by tunneling Marquis. If the scumteam really wanted to protect Marquis, THEY KILL CES OR SHEA.
- Later on suggests Postie NK indicates NSG, but basically ignores this point.
CES's NKA cherrypicks aspects of the dead townies that he wants to agree with, rather than taking into account what those townies would've done if they were alive. 2018 MS Scum doesn't kill people to make others look more townish or to frame people. They kill people who are threats.
Llama is a major threat to CES, and a potential threat to Shea.
Postie was somewhat of a threat to Dunnstral and Shea.
Neither was a threat to Marquis, and CES can fuck off with that logic.
1. CES has voted nothing but town. I really shouldn't have to elaborate further. If you agree that Gamma/Marquis is town, then CES is apparently a shitty enough player to exclusively vote town, or is scum.
2. CES wagon never takes off, despite literally no one explicitly townreading him or defending him. The only people who have voted CES are:
D1: {Lycan, Ranmaru, NSG}
D2: {Fenix, Lycan}
D3: {Lycan, Davsto, NSG, Ranmaru}
The people who have voted CES's pet Marquis wagon are:
D1: {Dunn, Davsto, CES, Llama, Postie, Quick, Gamma}
D1 (serious): {Davsto, Dunn, CES, Llama, Quick, Gamma}
D2: {Ranmaru, Fenix, Gamma, CES, Quick, Dunn}
D3: {CES, Quick, Dunn, Ranmaru, Gamma, TSQ}
CES isn't taking off because scum doesn't want it to.
He wagons the most popular wagons of the day, which scum join him on; I maintain that if CES were town with Marquis scum, CES would've held course on Marquis for D2.
3.
But everyone who voted Marquis that day except Gamma was also willing to lynch Fenix
.
It didn't matter to the scumteam which of them got lynched. They're both low hanging lurker fruit.
4.
Furthermore, everyone who has voted Marquis today was, at some point, on the Fenix wagon. Scum. Driven. Wagons.
Now, you could also argue that both of the non-NSG people on the CES wagon were also on the Fenix wagon. Fine.
But then you should take a look at the individual votes.
Really. Take a look at every single Fenix vote. See Mathblade's
2073 to get the links.
By far the towniest and most well-thought-out are Davsto's and Lycan's. Davsto backed up Postie's meta by doing his own work, because he wanted to be right on this. Lycan's
1839 was a massive well-written sincere application of wagonomics from his perspective.
Everyone else kind of jumped on. And now they're on Marquis. Shocker. This town is either the laziest town ever, or there's scum on Marquis. The CES wagon is 100% town-driven. And if CES were town, there would be 3 scum willing to actually join it. Yet they're just not showing up.
Maybe you think NSG is scum trying to push CES. Fucking fine. But who else? Why is the CES wagon dead even after Ranmaru canvasses all over the place for it?
Back to point #2. CES wagon isn't taking off because scum doesn't want it to. Either they want him around (to push Marquis?), or he's just scum.
VI. CES has not adequately defended himself
I guess I'm gonna have to rip up this defence post by post. I'm only going to look at the points/posts that I haven't already looked at or analysed. 1557 and 1596 for example I already went over. CES defends the hammer with his read progression half the time, and defends the hammer by arguing it was pro-town for the other half. See point II5.
-
1662 is a godawful response to Ranmaru's suspicions. He claims Ran's case is just a lot of spin and encourages a read-through of his town-meta, which, lo and behold, brings us back to why Marquis is somehow scum.
Then he completely shuts down A50's tournament logic when A50's tournament logic was literally working. It points to CES scum at the end of the day.
-
2003, once again tries to dodge responsibility for the Tchill lynch, again an unnecessary thing when he could've just said "fuck it, we weren't getting another lynch, hell yes I hammered a townread". Instead he justifies with Screenplay's swap-in (what?) and Screenplay's play (which, let's be honest, was town as fuck).
-
2279, where CES starts blanket discrediting NSG's CES push by discrediting KMD and Math. Utter bullshit. Then reduces the full-team-scumread to "well you guys see that I was on both lynches".
-
2475, clarifies that he wasn't a fan of Math's lines of questioning (why?). Plus, I wrote out entire essays to each of those players, and NSG reduced them to single questions each. It wasn't busywork.
-
2534, which is apparently some hallmark of town CES. I'll go through this.
1. Semantics.
2. The read change was BAD, that's the point. He didn't HAVE to justify his read change with shit logic, yet he chose to anyway.
3. Tunneling Marquis all the way through is not gamesolving, it's trying to lynch a lurker repeatedly every single day. CES is at the point where he's just scumreading Marquis by default and doesn't even have good reasons for why Marquis is coming at this from a scum mindset. VCA is against him, NKA is against him.
He's not coming up with partners with Marquis.
He's not coming up with who's scum if Marquis is town.
He's not sorting other people (his townreads are shit, remember).
He's pushing Marquis and defending himself, while soft-defending Shea and Dunn.
4. This just proves all his scumreads are basically completely independent. Which I guess is fine, and can come from town. But it also makes it really easy to just tunnel the same person for 3 days.
-
2571, where CES argues that Marquis is scum just trying to look town while Marquis's scumbuddy pushes CES. Okay but... who? Davsto? Lycan? NSG? CES is being incredibly vague here. There weren't many people pushing CES.
Then he defends his Postie/Gamma votes by arguing that he didn't like the Tchill lynch when he spent 0 time arguing against the Tchill lynch.
I'm not saying CES is scum for lack of presence or inactivity; that's obviously NAI. I'm saying CES claims he didn't like the Tchill lynch but fencesat on it the entire goddamn day.
-
2690, in which he denies responsibility for the two lynches, blames it on them (particularly Fenix), argues that he hasn't been discrediting NSG (which he has, by throwing shade here and there every time she pushes him), and inadequately/indignantly responding to the Shea/him accusation.
His complete lack of interest in talking reads in the situation that Marquis flips town is extremely concerning.
-
2742, in which he CLAIMS THAT MATHDINO IS UNINVESTED IN THE GAME LOLLLL.
I'm not going to talk about the push from Davsto or the defence from it, because I feel like this case has much better points than Davsto is providing.
CES is acting completely unlike his team; his team hasn't been paying any attention to this game despite the fact that this is the game that town is losing. He hasn't mentioned them at all, while he did mention his team last year (albeit once). His teammates should consider his reads awful, but they haven't course corrected him at all.
CES has exclusively voted town, and his push on Marquis was and is shit. He's voted the low hanging fruit every. single. day.
CES has basically no townreads, and certainly no townreads that actually make sense, outside of Lycanfire.
CES misuses NKA and the reads of dead townies to further his goals when actual NKA just points to CES (and the rest of the scumteam). Llama made it very clear that CES is to be lynched before or in LyLo NO MATTER WHAT. And neither Llama nor Postie supported the Marquis lynch as of their deaths.
CES wagon never takes off because scum don't want it to, while the people who mislynched Screenplay and Fenix are joining CES on this Marquis wagon. The entire CES wagon is town.
CES chooses to defend himself against the strongest pusher (NSG) by discrediting her and her entire team and flipping his townread of NSG to point fingers at her (by misrepping the case on him).
CES is scum by every possible metric. I will never let go of this read and you shouldn't either.
After CES, lynching both Shea and Dunnstral will win the game no matter what. Might not be both of them, but it is one of them.
And if he's not scum, fuck me, lynch whoever shouldn't still be alive.
But he's scum.
You're welcome.
