[SETUP] Extradition Mafia

[mith]

3 Mafia Goons
10 Vanilla Town

Each Night, in addition to killing, one of the Mafia Goons escapes. The Mafia win by all members escaping, while the Town wins with one successful lynch.

(Flavor-wise: they catch a Goon and get them to flip on their team, and any escaped Goons are extradited back. If they all escape, there is no one to flip for evidence; something like that, I'm really struggling to come up with a good name today, and I'm not married to it).

EV for this particular count is 47.25%. This one has a pretty fun EV curve, which is sort of the inverse of the Bus Stop; a lylo setup is close to 50-50 (town only get one shot, but with the best lynch ratio they can hope for; e.g. 3:4 EV is 3/7 = 42.86%), and town EV grows initially as they add more townies (3:6 is 70.37%, as they get up to three attempts with 1/3 probability each; the best town EV is always at M:2M for this reason), but then starts to decrease as they don't add attempts but do reduce the probability for each (3:10 is only 3/13, 2:8 is 2/10, and 1:6 is 1/7)

This has the anti-busing of some of my other setups, but Mafia is compensated nicely by being able to remove their scummier members off the board (while town is guaranteed information each day in the form of a scum flip and 2 town flips).

[mith]

Yeah, I quite like it. It's very loosely inspired by EmpKing's Simple Mafia concept of a forced scum death by Night 2.

[mith]

Kills are mandatory.

(Lynches are not, but no-lynch is strictly worse for town.)

[mith]

Yeah, it's kinda brutal both ways.

I'm curious if a "Town must lynch two scum to win" condition can be made to work. It would obviously require a higher number of chances.

Here's a version that it incredibly well balanced, considering I just went with my gut to start with:

Extradition Mafia 2: Corroborating Witness

5 Mafia Goons
8 Vanilla Town

If Mafia is lynched, they must kill a Townie (Vengescum). If Town is lynched, one Mafia must flee (needs a modifier name). Mafia win if 4 members flee, Town wins if 2 Mafia are lynched.

EV is 50.08%, if I got it in the spreadsheet correctly. My script isn't really set up for this kind of thing yet.

[mith]

I don't find that a particularly elegant solution. (And it would be very slow in practice.) Another idea would be for town to vote each day on someone to protect from the nightkill, to force the scum away from the towniest person, or vote on someone to watch who can't flee, to force scum away from the scummiest person. Or both. (Probably not both, for the same reason a list of 3 isn't great.)

And yeah, Corroborating Witness had perpetual mylo and other such "points" based games in mind (there was a bit of this in the last California Trilogy game, way back when). Another twist along those lines is to alternate between town trying to lynch Mafia and town trying to pick Town:

Best of Five Mafia

5 Mafia Goons
8 Vanilla Town

On odd days, if Mafia is lynched, Town scores a point and Mafia must kill a Townie at night; if Town is lynched, Mafia scores a point and one Mafia must flee.
On even days, if Town is elected, Town scores a point and one Mafia must flee; if Mafia is elected, Mafia scores a point and must kill a Townie at night.
Both fleeing and elected players are removed from the game.
First to three points wins.

EV is 40.54% as is. If you instead allow Town two chances on D5 (two players are lynched, and Town scores if either is Mafia), EV is 48.61%.

(In some ways this is a melding of perpetual mylo and The Resistance.)

[mith]

I don't disagree. Town has a lot of information D5, if it gets to that point, to compensate for the 1/5 random lynch success rate.

For reference, 5:7 Perpetual Mylo only has an EV of 24.13%, unless town is allowed to no lynch and force a scum kill to restore parity (effectively 5:6 Perpetual Lylo, 33.81%).