1. CheekyTeeky suddenly going to town on BuJaber is extremely convenient if we have a Lovebird / Cheeky scum team.
2. I have a very bad feeling about an Ankamius/Lovebird scum team. It's decently likely that scum were planning on killing me tonight, and if Ank/Love were planning on this, the Ico doc claim followed by BV cop claim would have suddenly shifted their plans. They would have realized they needed to achieve two mislynches in {me, BuJaber, CheekyTeeky}, requiring them to mislynch me if they failed to mislynch both of {Bu, Cheeky}. Both Love and Ank have been townreading me consistently, so Ank may have realized that getting both Love & Cheeky might be necessary at some point, in which case her speculation about a far-fetched Cheeky/Bu scum team is a play by scum to keep options open going into 5p and 3p.
3. BuJaber's response to BV's claim was extremely scummy and if he weren't under pressure from Cheeky at the time I would consider it a straight-up scum claim. At this point I'm leaning towards scum!BuJaber out of the two of them, but it could be the case that Cheeky was intentionally goading Bu into misplaying.
If I were considering players in isolation, I would rank lynch preference as:
BuJaber > Lovebird > Ankamius > CheekyTeeky.
Thankfully, I don't have to do that because we have enough mechanical clears to narrow down to a small pool of potential teams. From my POV, the following teams are still mechanically possible:
BuJaber / CheekyTeeky
BuJaber / Lovebird
BuJaber / Ankamius
CheekyTeeky / Lovebird
CheekyTeeky / Ankamius
Lovebird / Ankamius
Thoughts about each:
BuJaber / CheekyTeeky
: If their row over the past day was scum theater, that's both impressive and really dumb, as Lovebird very nearly got lynched and that wagon only seemed to get derailed once Cheeky and Bu started going at each other. The only way I see this making sense is if scum!Cheeky is doing this to buy town cred (by creating a pos. association with Lovebird), a la her defense of Not_Mafia D1. I guess now that I state it outright I do see the scum motivation in her trying the same trick again after hearing me town read her for doing it D1 but that doesn't necessarily point to Cheeky/Bu anyway so basically I'm rambling. Bottom line: I think this pairing is very unlikely.BuJaber / Lovebird
: I think this pairing is somewhat unlikely. If I'm right about the potential scum motivation behind Bu's reaction to BV's cop claim, he was holding open the possibility of a D3 counterclaim because he expected it to by LyLo and wanted to have a claim-off against BV. But he returned to the Lovebird wagon right after he established the possibility of the D3 CC. If he were scum with her, he would have known that her lynch would result in D3 not
being LyLo and thus the whole trick wouldn't have worked. To be fair, I don't have much reason outside of that to posit against a Bu/Love team, so if somehow Bu is scum and was not actually angling for a D3 CC then, okay, it's possible this is still the pairing. But I think it's unlikely enough to rule it out for today.BuJaber / Ankamius
: The only thing that makes me doubt this team is the stronger case for Anka/Love. Otherwise this feels plausible.CheekyTeeky / Lovebird
: This one I've been paranoid about for a while now, as Cheeky's actions over the last dozen pages or so could easily be a scum play to try to derail the Lovebird wagon at the last moment. I recall as well that Cheeky settled on BuJaber over Lovebird before the original D1 deadline. If this is the scum team, it might also explain the fake Lovebird hammer from a scum perspective: if others believed her fake hammer, they might have refrained from voting even if they had originally intended to hammer, and thus this provided a (admittedly small) chance of Lovebird being saved. Admittedly, this is a stretch, and the heart of the case for this team is the D2 play.CheekyTeeky / Ankamius
: Nothing is really making me think this is a potential team but I don't see any obvious reason it couldn't be the case. Korina scum reading Cheeky is a mild point against this, but he never really pushed her so I hesitate to read into it. This is relatively close to a null team read. Of this and the BuJaber/Ankamius team, I think the latter is more likely.Lovebird / Ankamius
: Anka's play over the last couple of pages is making me worry a whole lot about this one, as I explained above.If I rule out
Bu/Cheeky
and Bu/Lovebird
, I'm left with:BuJaber / Ankamius
CheekyTeeky / Lovebird
CheekyTeeky / Ankamius
Lovebird / Ankamius
We can spare one mislynch before entering LyLo, meaning we need to narrow down to the scum team with no more than one town flip. Just looking at the remaining teams mathematically, the least useful town flip would be BuJaber, as that would not rule out anyone as scum. The most useful would be Ankamius, as that would leave me with the Cheeky/Love team as the only plausible team. Of those two, I'd be more inclined to flip Love, as she could only be town at that point if the scum team is Bu/Cheeky, and that strikes me as the least likely of all of the teams right now.
The most useful scum flip would be Bu, as that would make me confident of either Bu/Ank (most likely) or Bu/Love (less likely), and we'd have a mislynch to spare so at that point it'd just be a bet against Bu/Cheeky and I would happily take that bet at this point. However, if we lynch Bu today and he flips green, any of Love/Cheeky/Ank could still be scum.
Mechanically, I'm inclined to lynch Ankamius, but I really don't like the idea of voting her over BuJaber, given my individual reads.
Also, I have to get up early tomorrow for a meeting so I don't have much more time to mull this over unless I want to cut into my sleep :/
anyone who can't see your scum intent in the past few posts is unfortunately missing out on lynching scum. Keep trying so hard to look reasonable, it's a thin veil to your self-preservation which reeks. You should have just voted me while I was distracted by NSG thinking she could read me. Now you're lock scum buddy.
