Do you have to "intent to hammer"?

[Ellibereth]

Tom: "Hi guys ima hammer soon okay"
Bob: "OH NO UNVOTE: "
Sam: "Yeah this day needs to last 5 more weeks to be somewhat productive UNVOTE: "
Tom: "zzzzzzzzzzz"

5 weeks later

Sam: "Fuck, we only have 10 minutes until deadline let's randomly lynch Mulch because he posted too much".

Mulch has been lynched, he was a

Townie

vs.

Tom: "VOTE: Ali"

Alisae was lynched, they were

Scum

[Ellibereth]

It's unfortunate that Elli compared mid day momentum Lynch to a shit Lynch because I think EOD momentum lynches have some of the best odds of hitting scum.

Not sure that's true in general. Did you check at some point or just based off experience.

[Ellibereth]

Tom: "Hi guys ima hammer soon okay"
Bob: "OH NO UNVOTE: "
Sam: "Yeah this day needs to last 5 more weeks to be somewhat productive UNVOTE: "
Tom: "zzzzzzzzzzz"

5 weeks later

Mulch has been lynched, he was a

Scum

vs.

Tom: "VOTE: Ali"

Alisae was lynched, they were

Townie

Countering argument with same strength argument.

My point was that there's nothing inherently bad in the former case, and it's sometimes better if Tom is reasonably sure that said L-1'd person is scum and Tom also suspects that town will potentially be "fooled" off the lynch given more time.

[Ellibereth]

What day length leads to a higher success rate of EoD flashwagon's may also be an interesting question.

[Ellibereth]

I mean regardless, whether to declare or to gogohammer should just depend on that individual's confidence/their judgement on how the other people will vote or unvote.

[Ellibereth]

Wouldn't be very surprised if true - looking at even D1's alone might even be sufficient to see if there's anything meaningful.

If true why do you think it's conceptually this way? I don't think it's because of "more discussion leads to better results".

Maybe a combination of that some relatively high percentage of "early" hammers are done by people who do them universally, and that scum are more likely to "crack" under higher pressure (e.g. incoming deadline chaos) situations.

[Ellibereth]

Also interesting is for non-short days what percent of close to deadline lynches are on periceved lurkers and what the hitrate is there.
I had started looking at this at some point 6 or 7 years ago where the hitrate was relatively high but not sure if it's still true.

[Ellibereth]

My point was that there's nothing inherently bad in the former case, and it's sometimes better if Tom is reasonably sure that said L-1'd person is scum and Tom also suspects that town will potentially be "fooled" off the lynch given more time.

True, but I argue that the fact that Bob and Tom were willing to L-1 someone but not lynch is indicative of being likely bussing scummates. It's a good info boost to consider.

Yes, maybe. I think there's a rather large set of people who have been brought up on the "extending discussion" and that would dilute things a little but in a concrete game with specific individuals there is a potential info boost there yeah.

I think for most players this is probably a "learn the fundamentals first then break them" type of thing with the intent declaration being the "by the book play" that's correct more often than not. If anything declaring intent a bunch teaches you about the cases where it may have been better not to, while I think the educational value the other way around is comparatively lacking.