Newbie 1860 - Game Over

[MagikHorse]

Well, I finally wandered my way over here after spending hours practicing my viola for an upcoming performance about an hour away. Turns out today was just bound to be all kinds of awkward for a start day no matter what.

Nice to see you again UCV. It was well worth waiting to get into a game with you again, even if I'm starting out just before I head off to hit the hay. Or eat it. One or the other, really.

Part of me wants to vote Brass because OMGUS, but he's right that his vote doesn't belong on Nuclear so I'm alright with it for now.

Instead I'll VOTE: GuiltyLion for being as guilty as his name states.

[MagikHorse]

Did you realize this was the third vote on him?

Amazingly, no. I saw UCV's vote, but somehow missed Floosh's vote. Dunno if it was because I was sleepy and trying to make things quick before hitting the sack, or if I just happened to glance over it. I did read pretty quick, not gonna lie.

As to avoiding OMGUS, I've literally never heard anyone say an OMGUS vote this early on is AI. Doesn't mean it could be, but I've never heard that before. That statement was more so trying to say something like "I have a gut urge to OMGUS, but I'm smart enough to know it's as bad a call as Brass' vote staying on NuclearBurrito so I'm cool with it". I understand your reasoning behind it, but I think it's a bit of a stretch to call it LAMIST this early on.

I'd go on, but break is over. I'll be back when I get off.

[MagikHorse]

I'm saying concrete things, you and Magikhorse are suspicious to me. Is that concrete enough for you?

Doesn't get much more concrete than that.

Currently I find NuclearBurrito, UC Voyager, and BrassHerald all leaning towards Town. Floosh is leaning both ways at once, mostly because they tug me both ways as someone who seems to be reading maybe a little too deeply into the first few posts of the game. It's a bit tough to tell if it's coming from a Townie too eager to jump into the heavier action or a scum trying to throw out as many suspicions as early as possible for Town to chase after.

[MagikHorse]

This game is gonna be as slow as the last one, isn't it?

[MagikHorse]

The reasoning is mostly meta. I've seen a game (Newbie 1851 "Positivity") where someone (SheepSaysMeep) pointed out that Town!UCV really hates the RVS stage like nuts and wants it over with ASAP. Thusly, his eagerness ti end it in 27 seems townie off the bat.

As to what Guilty said, there's a difference between sorting people out and trying to dig diamonds out of a kiddie sand pit. If there was more stuff actually there for him to pick at I'd be supporting of it, but a fair bit of what he's poked at is pretty lightweight stuff that he's treating like incredibly serious stuff. It comes off as too eager to point fingers with too little evidence. the fact that he's been talking about "devoting" his vote to a single person this early is also a pretty significant concern, as it's way too early to really say "Eeyup, this is they guy I'm sticking with today".

[MagikHorse]

So, scum!UCV couldn't abuse the easiest meta to fake ever and just ask to end RVS early to look town?

That's the easiest town meta to fake of which I have ever heard.

I never said it was that significant of a read, moreso just a starting point. It is pretty abusable, hence why it's not worth very much in the long run.

[MagikHorse]

@MagikHorse
Just curious, but are you a tulpa?

I actually had to look that up, because I had no clue what a tulpa was. Think more "a horse that uses magik" over "a ghost/spirit/apparition horse".

But, ya know, that's just in name and occasional fluff flavor posts.

[MagikHorse]

This should have all the abbreviations you'll need.
https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?ti ... reviations

And since Viper hasn't shown up in the activity overview, he definitely hasn't posted at all yet. Starting to wonder what happened to him.

[MagikHorse]

LAMIST: Look At Me, I'm So Town. Used with a heaping spoonful of sarcasm to point out a post that sounds like it's trying too hard to sound Town.

NAI/AI: (Not) Alignment Indicative. Basically whether a sign actually means anything towards showing their alignment as Town or Scum.

Anything else you'll ever need on the site can be found in that list of abbreviations I posted in 58.

[MagikHorse]

Do scum have day chat or pregame chat in newbie games?

They do have Day Chat in this current 2d3 format (If you want more detail on that, read post 2), but I don't know about pregame chat or not.

[MagikHorse]

I don't see how this is scummy though, feels more like a newbie tell. Both town and scum have to point fingers. If anything, I think it's slightly townier to accuse someone early game because it's a way of putting yourself out there, and a lot of scum players don't like attention. and what's the scum motivation to limiting himself to only a single person to push so early?

You make some valid points. I still don't really like it very much, but I can see it all being born from inexperience. It pinged Brass too though for some reason, so I'm gonna ask him about this.

I don't really agree that accusing someone earlier is more townie though. I thought it through quickly and ended up getting stuck going "if scum knows this, they'd try to push early, but they don't want to stick out so they won't, but they might anyways because they know this" and ended up rapidly getting deep into WIFOM logic. Everything being said, it's way too easy to fake Town this way.

@BrassHerald

, what was it in post 12 that made you call it out in post 30?

[MagikHorse]

It's lots of words that are there just to seem like he's making content. The post itself is fake, he analyzed a new player asking about the RVS and tried to create a case out of absolutely nothing. The entire thing is one of those posts that, the more I read it, the less it means. Plus, he's casing both GuiltyLion and NuclearBurrito there off of basically nothing, then does nothing to move forward with his cases.

So, exactly what I was saying earlier about digging for diamonds in the kiddie sand pit then. Since we seem to be in relative agreement about this, what do you think about 67 (Guilty's response that it's a noobtell)?

[MagikHorse]

Looks like a lot of stuff happened while I was on the work floor. Catching up now, will post either at the end of break or when I get home.

[MagikHorse]

How is it that Brass is one of the only people that can tell that Not_Mafia's Mafia Roleblocker claim is a joke?

[MagikHorse]

I'm like here

{brassherald}
{Oneironaut}
{NuclearBurrito, Floosh}
{UCV, NM, Chumba}
{MagikHorse}

reads town->scum from top to bottom.

(clipped vote for UCV so it doesn't get mistaken as my vote)

So I'm your biggest scumread, and yet your vote isn't on me? You even went so far that you unvoted me to switch to UCV. I really, really don't get why you'd switch from your biggest read to a less scummy read except to follow the crowd on the UCV wagon, and that brings suspicion along with it. Either way, this has solidified my RVS vote as real and cemented you as my current top suspect.

I don't like how MagikHorse calls out that it's a joke but doesn't really give a read on anyone discussing it.

I was on a time limit as I was on the break room computer (as I almost always will be between 3:00 and 3:15 EST on weekdays, unless I happen to get out early. Not gonna happen during this time of the year though). After I caught up with the thread, I didn't have nearly enough time before break ended to actually call anyone out until I got home, and then I had to deal with chores and get in some viola practice for my upcoming performances on Good Friday and Easter Sunday. I understand your concerns, but it's a case of real life taking priority over the game. The viola practice in particular is eating a lot more time than I'd like it to, but it'll only last for this week before that is over and things return more or less to normal.

I can see Oneironaut not knowing that Not_Mafia's claim was a joke as a newbie unfamiliar with Not_Mafia's play, but UCV knows a lot better, and even admitted that Not_Mafia is trollish at times. UCV easily detected a fakeclaim joke like this and called someone out as Town for it, so suddenly failing to see it as a joke is all kinds of weird and makes 91 look all kinds of fake. I'd vote for him if I wasn't still voting for Guilty and if he wasn't at L-2 (no, I'm not gonna make the same mistake as last game and push someone to L-1 on page 5), so take a FOS for now.

Honestly kind of disappointed that BrassHerald was the first to call it out as a joke, especially over UCV. On top of all the pushing for information and discussion, they have an incredibly level head around right now, and they're using it for the greater good of the Town. This is the closest I'm gonna get to a true townread on Day 1 right here. I will call out their "Scum read, but vote someone else" callout on UCV as totally wrong though, as UCV said he had a bigger suspicion one post before. A hand of suspicion is bigger than just a finger, so saying he's only voting for the "hand" over the "finger" is silly. Otherwise, he's pretty much on track as far as I see.

[MagikHorse]

yes - D1 is about generating information and associations and seeing how people react to different votes and wagons, not just tunneling a single scumread. None of my reads are that strong. How UCV reacts to having more votes on him is informative. How other players react to UCV having 3 votes is informative. How you react to me voting another wagon is informative. I'd currently switch right back on you in a heartbeat if you became the leading wagon.

Quite frankly that was certainly one way to figure out your motivations behind the switch, and although it's still suspicious, it's not quite what I was expecting. Really though, your motivation seems to be following the crowd for pressure, and that would feel awkward and clunky if you hadn't already stated your suspicions on UCV aligning with my own. I'll be keeping an eye on you, but you've driven yourself closer to neutral territory with this response in general.

UNVOTE:

like this is exactly how I saw the situation, and you're saying I pre-empted you with my vote - so, from a town perspective we should be seeing the same things. Yet you're still scumreading me? How do you reconcile that as being coherent?

Coming to th same conclusions as another player is hardly AI, but I see what you're going for here.

[MagikHorse]

Guilty, if happening upon the same conclusion is such a townread for you, why are you scot-free to call me scum while you expect me to call you townie? I've been chewing on this question on the work floor, and it's been driving me nuts because it just doesn't make any sense to me.

Until I get a response, I'll be thinking deeply on whether we're two clashing townies with different playstyles that just aren't working well together or if you're actually scum trying to mislead me.

[MagikHorse]

That is one dapper rabbit Wilky, and thanks for coming in and posting some thoughts. Would you mind going a step further and do a list now that it looks like you've just about caught up?

Even more, what do you think about this kerfluffle between me and GuiltyLion that seems to be going on? I need an outside perspective on this, because I've succeeded in blinding and confusing myself here trying to figure him out.

[MagikHorse]

Voting UCV can give you the thrill of lynching scum and restore your love for the game

As much as I'd love to, I'm not falling for this two games in a row.

[MagikHorse]

Couldn't have said it better myself.

[MagikHorse]

I haven't even bothered reading Oneironaut yet, as I've been too focused on reading UCV, GuiltyLion, and BrassHerald (and Not_Mafia once he replaced in) in my limited time, but looking over his ISO does give me some concerns now that I've actually gotten out of work early (which means I guess I lied that it would never happen? Best lie I ever made).

As I said earlier, I don't doubt that taking Not_Mafia's joke seriously was due to a lack of knowledge about Not_Mafia in general, but I don't like the "null reads on everyone" post or his choice to sheep Not_Mafia instead of trying to forge his own opinions. Wilky's point in 175 above also seems accurate. There is simply no reason to leave a vote behind in anger, because it's literally just spite at that point.

[MagikHorse]

I don't have the time for details right now, as I'm about to go eat before heading off to viola practice, but my reads look like this:

Town: BrassHerald
Townlean: Wilky
Neutral: Not_Mafia, Chumba's Slot
Scumlean: Oneironaut
Scum: UC Voyager
I Don't Even Know Where To Put You Because I'm So Darned Confused By You: GuiltyLion, Floosh

[MagikHorse]

Before someone calls me out, saying "UCV claimed Doctor", I still find that claim really oddly timed and UCV's general play has been way off the mark from what I've ever seen from him before. I'm not sure if he's just really, really sloppy this game or hiding a scum role PM behind him at this point.

It's something that'll eventually iron itself out, so either Scum will take him out to get rid of a PR or he'll end up proving his innocence somehow, but for the meanwhile I just don't trust him whatsoever. I'm not gonna risk voting up a doc without a counterclaim, but I still have a really bad feeling about his slot all around.

[MagikHorse]

Also gonna laugh if this is the same Doc/Jailkeeper/Roleblocker setup again. That would be funny.

[MagikHorse]

cause I expect everyone to call me townie, and I'm also a dirty hypocrite

At least you're honest.

Still trying to digest exactly where you fit in right now though, but it's definitely looking better.

[MagikHorse]

Regarding one you're pushing it from the angle of where the scum motivation is but I struggle to seen any town motivation behind doing it either, I mean why would town One want to push an uncc'd pr? As someone else has already said if he is doc then let scum deal with it at night.

I can see it possibly coming from a PR!Oneironaut that wants to put pressure on a fakeclaim without resorting to publically counterclaiming, thus keeping him safe from the night kill. I don't know why he wouldn't just counterclaim straight-up in this case though, as that would solidify the lynch possibility on UCV and guarantee a scum lynch either today or Day 2. Anything that gets the scum lynched is worthwhile here.

Still no clue what Not_Mafia is doing either, voting the same person he was already voting. For as scummy as UCV is, Not_Mafia is way too insistent on this, especially with the currently uncontested Doc claim.

[MagikHorse]

Meant to post this before I went off to my concert, and found it still lying around. Turns out it's still pretty relevant, so I'm posting it in its unedited form. For the record, it was supposed to be a response to 219 and posted shortly thereafter.

Doesn't claiming Doc when they put you at L-1 make it more believable though? A claim under any less pressure is really hard to believe, which in turn severely hinders your strategy at trying to redirect things towards Not_Mafia regardless of the Town's momentum. I don't think this town is dumb enough to instantly lynch someone at L-1, so why freak out so much about the momentum when it would've hit a wall at L-1 anyways?

Seriously, the UCV in this game is so far removed from the UCV I saw in my first game to the point where I feel this UCV gets his mail from a different zip code.

Not_Mafia really does need to stop playing around so much though, so you're right about that at least. Nothing he has said has really struck me as important because everything he's said has either been a joke or a jab at UC Voyager that's pointing out the obvious anyways. It makes him come off as a single-minded troll that's here to play with us more than play the game.

[MagikHorse]

this is a bad post and hard to see as a town mindset - a modkill on town is pretty much the worst possible D1 outcome

You can say that again. Not only would you be losing a member of the Town, you'd also get stuck in an awkward MYLO situation instead of hitting LYLO like a natural progression of 1 per night and 1 per day leads you towards. At that point the town is forced to decide whether to nolynch to let scum take the game to LYLO (thus giving them a free kill, which you usually don't want to do) or take a risk with an additional possible scum option to sort through. That lowers the odds drastically when numbers get down into those MYLO/LYLO gamestates.

The same doesn't quite hold true when a town protective like the Doctor or a Jailkeeper saves someone, as the person the Doc saves is confirmed not Mafia (the alignment, not the player) and therefore Town, thus leaving you in Mylo with 2 proven Townies in the Doc and whomever they saved. This assumes we're not playing multiball and no third party killers or Vigilantes are around, but Newbie games don't have to worry about any of that.

[MagikHorse]

Wait a minute, do Modkills actually end the day then and there, or do they keep going? Never seen a modkill in a Newbie game, and I certainly hope this doesn't cause one here either.

The post above assumes the latter, so if that's not correct, all that stuff about ending up in an unfavorable MYLO is wrong. It's still not what you want to have happen in the case of the latter, as you're losing out on that that ~22.2% chance of hitting scum, guaranteeing the death of a Townie, and denying the information gained from the wagon and its members. It's a tough road to coming back from that kind of information loss.

Edit: Ninja'd by UCV. Care to respond to 233 on why we'd ever think a Doctor claim there woulds ever be believable?

[MagikHorse]

Honestly UCV, if you actually are Town, the best thing you can do is calm down and actually reason things out instead of whaling on Mot_Mafia. Give us some reasonable alternatives here and see what sticks, because right now you're just digging yourself into a deeper hole going after him.

[MagikHorse]

@Magik, why haven't you voted on anyone at all since the RVS?

Honestly, it's because I don't really have a decent lynchpool right now, and haven't for a while. I blinded myself for too long trying to figure out GuiltyLion (who I did say my vote turned real on for a while, but even then it was really late into the day all things considered), and I didn't really develop any really significant reads outside of the UCV/Not_Mafia/Brass/GuiltyLion circle of activity and/or controversy because of it. I've got some time today, so I'm going to ISO everyone shortly to try and reorient myself, and barring someone putting whomever I was going to vote to L-1 or something similarly crazy, there will be a vote accompanying it.

why did you elaborate so much on the idea though, who was your audience for that? I think a modkill would have happened by now already and we should be all in agreement that it would suck, so I don't see your posts as useful and they feel LAMIST

I figured "It's a Newbie game. Maybe it'll help one of the other newbies learn why it's so universally bad for Town". My brain kind of went on it's own path from there until it hit that question further down the road.

[MagikHorse]

Town: BrassHerald, Wilky

Brass

continues to be one of the biggest driving forces of the Town, and he's always willing to discuss things reasonably. That's saying nothing about the smoothness of his reads, which flow gracefully up and down along the river of his discussions.

Wilky

has similarly been a great contributor to the ongoing discussions, and I'm not seeing anything that pings me as scummy from any of his discussion points or reads.

Townlean: Oneironaut

Oneironaut

has moved upwards, mostly because a lot of the things they're doing seem scummy on the surface but lack motivation to it or go against scum's best plays. Seems more like a Townie that's not entirely sure where to go or what to believe, and quite frankly that's Mafia for you.

Neutral: Not_Mafia, GuiltyLion

Not_Mafia

was reading scummy for me because of his sheer determination to get UCV killed and just general unhelpfulness, but has since moved up after his last few posts that actually seemed like attempts to help the town. I'm still hesitant to call him town due to his timing, which seems like it might be a means of trying to avoid the rope himself with time running short.

GuiltyLion

is acting somewhat like Town, but still has a lot of quirks that make it hard for me to actually move him up. On one hand, he's trying to participate in the ongoing discussions and make points, but on the other hand constantly poking at me for being overly explanative while being equally overly explanative in 114 is really off-putting, which is his own self-acknowledged veneer of hypocrisy on top of his "I expect everyone to call me Town" ideal. He's stuck in the middle for now with similar drive in both directions.

Scumlean: Floosh

Floosh

has basically been nonexistent this game, with a few posts early on that I already said I didn't like too much for going too deep into the little things and making little sense. With that being said, 164 caught my eye going through his ISO and seems like the world's worst push for a lynch I've ever seen.

Scum: UC Voyager, The Vortigaunt

Pretty sure everyone knows why

UCV

is here. There's no reason to beat this dead horse.

The Vortigaunt

doesn't have much to look at, but what I do see feels off. 247 sounds to me like a cop-out answer, 248 was just a repeat of well-known common knowledge as an excuse, and saying "I'm gonna flip green if you lynch me" is unnecessary, LAMIST, and kind of feels ham-fisted in because it breaks the flow of his post. He just feels very wrong overall.

I Don't Even Know Where To Put You Because I'm So Darned Confused By You: Floosh

Either way, I promised a vote, and so it goes to our lucky winner The Vortigaunt!
VOTE: The Vortigaunt

This is L-1 by my count, so proceed with caution.

[MagikHorse]

Best give him a chance to respond unless the clock runs too low. Pretty sure the timer's gonna be on pause until a replacement for Floosh is found anyways, so we have time until then.

Also just realized that I left the "IDEKWTPYBISDCBY" category in at the bottom with Floosh still there. Whoops.

[MagikHorse]

Yeah, I had issues connecting to Mafiascum this morning too, around 9 am EST. Firefox couldn't find the site whatsoever, or else I would've replied a bit then too.

I'm curious though. Fumiki, what do you see in me to call me out as one of your 3 trustable people?

[MagikHorse]

Well, I think I believe UCV now. I really don't see anyone else being saved from an attack during the night outside of sheer dumb luck. This also makes Not_Mafia seem less likely, as I don't think he'd go for a target that obvious unless he was fairly certain that he wouldn't be protected.

Looks like I'm well off the mark somewhere. The question is trying to figure out where.

[MagikHorse]

The night always ends when the time runs out, not when all actions come in. That gives the scum and any PRs a chance to make changes if they come up with a different plan of action, as well as letting people know exactly when the thread will be unlocked and ready for the next day instead of suddenly unlocking the thread halfway through when nobody is prepared for it.

[MagikHorse]

Also, please elaborate on this "doubt" Fumiki. Once again you've struck my curiosity.

[MagikHorse]

That's what Newbie games are for. I thought your doubt was on UCV's claim because of it's timing, which seems like it's unlikely to be false right now.

[MagikHorse]

That's what Newbie games are for. I thought your doubt was on UCV's claim because of it's timing, which seems like it's unlikely to be false right now.

What specifically makes you think UCV's doctor claim is unlikely to be a fake claim?

Mostly because I wasn't considering an intentional no kill from the Scum, which made the most likely outcome of the night appear to be an attack on UCV foiled by a Jailkeeper. Maybe I'm still stuck a little bit in last game, but I just can't shake this feeling ya know?

[MagikHorse]

I'll just vote the person I am most suspicious of right now and spell out my case a bit when I have the chance for that

I welcome this.

[MagikHorse]

The "A-3 is impossible" thing falls apart if the Scum intentionally didn't submit a kill, but that's definitely an interesting way to think about it. In that scenario though, why would scum not submit a kill? That's what doesn't make sense to me about A3 and makes it into a highly unlikely situation.

It still seems really unlikely for the Scum to not kill N1 unless it was either by intent to begin with or there was a Jailkeeper involved. In the world where UCV is fakeclaiming scum, there's no reason for him to commit the kill when a Jailkeeper is likely to jail him as a claimed PR, which would mean his buddy would be the killer instead, which then means there should've been a kill unless withheld. Add to that the question of why UCV wasn't counterclaimed D1, and it makes UCV seem much more likely to be town than fakeclaiming scum, but still isn't quite proven.

[MagikHorse]

I just have to wonder, why did you think the scum would want to target me last night UCV? I mean, it very well might have worked for all we know and the Scum was afraid of UCV being jailed and aimed at me instead, but I don't really understand why you'd choose me over more "townie" individuals. It feels more like the scum would want to push me for a mislynch Day 2 instead of going after me during the night like this.

Also wondering what ever happened to Brass' case against me. He made such a big deal about it during twilight, tossing aside his calm prose to make sure his message got through in time, but now he's gotten so caught up in figuring out the nightly events to bother following through after throwing so much shade my way? Seems weird to me unless he's trying to build the mother of all cases off of one day's events, and it makes me wonder where his priorities really are if he's more focused on figuring out the scenario instead of casing his biggest suspicion. The case would be a bit awkward now that UCV has claimed to protect me, but I'd still have expected something by now moreso than "It's mostly his reads".

I'm already well aware were about as accurate as Cabd's day 1 reads from Newbie 1846. For the record, his reads in that game were so far off that his only two scumreads were both town Power Roles. Yeeeah, I've got some work to do there.

[MagikHorse]

My case is here, this read list feels super fake. It's low analysis and just an amalgamation of what everyone had said up to this point. I've rolled scum and just done what I call the "copy the homework" trick and this reads exactly like that with more flowery language.

After saying outright that I didn't really have any significant reads on people outside of the core crew in post 286, I'd think this wouldn't be all that unexpected. You know as well as I was blinded to most of the discussion for a sizable chunk of time in my attempts to sort out GuiltyLion (which I also said outright in that same post), so I'm wondering exactly why you thought my reads were going to be all that impressive to begin with. I feel like the only reason this comes up as scummy is because you had a really high expectation of my readlist even though there were significant signs that it wouldn't fill those expectations, so when it fell flatter than you expected you called me out on it. Either that or you're trying to push on someone that the Town didn't have a favorable opinion on.

Plus anytime someone puts L-1 statements in big letters, it reads LAMIST to me.

I got chewed out last game for NOT putting an intent to hammer in big, bold letters by Cabd, so I've resolved to always put L-1 notices and intents to hammer in large, bold text so they're visible and unmistakable. It's really just done to prevent people from saying "Oh, I missed the L-1 callout" when they hammer and use that as an excuse to get off the hook. There's really nothing LAMIST about it when it's all-around good play. Pretty good example of how my first game has forever shaped how I play these situations though.

Also, I was offline for most of the night last night and didn't bother typing out my case during the night. So, don't try to shade me for not making my case when I'm not around. This combined with the general feeling of non-committal during Day 1 and the constant excuses as to why he was not making reads and whatnot really made me feel scum on this slot. I'm mulling over the new claim by UCV. Now that I have the reasoning it is more to think about.

I can understand a comment about the lack of night kill, but you really, really threw a lot of shade my way and hyped it up to try and grab everyone else's attention to this "big case". In the end the case is not only underwhelming as I said above, but you dropped something you hyped up so much in twilight to go chasing down the night actions? How are the night actions more important than a read so big that you're not only saying "I read Magik as scum", but went so far as to say "Everyone should be rereading Magik because his play is poor"? Why not build your case during the night phase so you could throw it out first thing when Day 2 began if it was this important?

The amount of hype doesn't match the amount of effort you put into the case, and it doesn't match the urgency you were giving it. It just makes no sense whatsoever for you to delay this case even for a time this short given how much you hyped it up as important, meaningful, and urgent.

Also, for someone who's thrown a whole ton of shade my way throughout Day 1, you're really freaking out over just a little bit of shade thrown your way. It feels like you can't take what you're repeatedly dishing out. Either way, this lackluster "case" and the reaction to this shade pings me really hard and reeks of an attempt to set up an easy day 2 mislynch. I thought you were more than reasonable for Day 1 barring that final twilight shade post, but now I'm not anywhere near this sure.
VOTE: BrassHerald

[MagikHorse]

Uh...before progressing with the discussion I think something should be made clear....
It's definitely about time for a counterclaim on UCV. We need to end this matter. Now.

The time to counterclaim UCV was on Day 1 when he claimed to begin with, as soon as the claim was seen. A counterclaim now would be tardy.

[MagikHorse]

I disagree with this, a cc yesterday would have seen a PR eat the night kill n1 most likely whereas waiting until d2 allows an extra night to use the power and potentially find the other scum.

Didn't think of that, but that does make sense.

[MagikHorse]

There's no reason to call that a "quickhammer" that close to the deadline when nobody else was likely to get lynched at that point in fear of more claims. That argument is dumb.

WIFOM is also dumb, but it's naturally part of the game since everything is going to be based off of at least some sort of assumption unless it's Mod confirmed.

[MagikHorse]

Well, I'm lost in all of these big posts. Can someone simplify this whole mess?

[MagikHorse]

Someone smelled smoke in my building, so I've got a little time I usually don't have right now. On one hand I like the time to post, on the other hand this is only going to make this work week harder.

I wouldn't bother nolynching unless we get to MYLO and don't have enough information to actually hit scum. Why stop trying to kill scum to catch up to the LYLO track when we can choose to catch up once we have more information? For now, we should put the pressure on them with lynches.

Also been dwelling in the whole "A3 is impossible thing", and I don't think it's impossible at all. I wouldn't even call it unlikely if we're in the A column. If the Mafia really is Goon/Roleblocker, then they have no clue whether the town is in A2 or A3 with UCV's doc claim, and could intentionally avoid killing UCV in hopes of avoiding the obvious jailkeeper target. I've no doubt that they know the full setup now if they didn't choose to nokill last night though,, which spooks me. The A column does seem the most likely though, as the scum in the B or C column know that a Doctor claim has no protection and could've easily been killed (unless UCV is scum, but uncounterclaimed this seems highly unlikely).

And now that you're back Brass, what do you have to say about post 351?

[MagikHorse]

Not gonna lie, UCV has definitely emboldened me a bit.

That being said, I've been going over reads and moved everyone I was townreading closer to null from the start of Day 2, knowing full well that the scum is hiding somewhere among my town reads since I didn't have anywhere near enough scumreads remaining with UCV's claim uncontested. I had already made a note to see what was up with your "case" you were ever so eager to blurt out in twilight (dropping your calm composure and prose, as if in a panic), just to find this case incredibly unconvincing and falling well short of its own hype. I vote you for pressure with the intent to try and discuss this so I can get a better peek under the hood, and what do I see? I see you brush off my counterpoints without any real consideration just because "it's a wall", completely unmotivated to discuss your own case.

I don't know about you, but someone that's hyping up an altogether unimpressive case and then is completely unwilling to discuss any counterpoints hurled at it is suspicious, regardless of what I thought Day 1. Now THAT reads "don't push me".

[MagikHorse]

You're never going to convince me I'm scum, but you know what I can do? I can prove to you that you're wrong about my motivations, and in Mafia motivations mean a lot more than actions.

Remember my first post? That one where I stated that I avoided OMGUS like it was a trap? Yeah, I agree fully with UCV that OMGUS is a stupid reason for any vote and an easy trap to fall into, and I'm not voting OMGUS here either.

Also take a look at 344, where I'm calling you out specifically for NOT casing me. Now you're turning it around and saying I'm voting you specifically to avoid being cased and pushed?

How does this make any sense at all?

You're also totally oblivious to my countercase against you, so I'll spell it out for you: You spent a whole lot of time hyping up a case, making it seem as important as possible in the Twilight phase. Then you proceed to hurl garbage as a case. I see absolutely no town motivation to throw that much shade my way (or that much shade at all. You downright doused several players in shade Day 1 for no real reason) for a case this disinteresting and lazy, but what I do see is scum motivation for setting up a Day 2 mislynch while in a position of power in the Town.

My counterargument isn't about the fact that your case is terrible and lazy, although it is. It's because you hyped it up as something great when it's totally not in an effort to steer the town during Twilight, and now you're OMGUSing me while claiming that I'm OMGUSing you and trying to run a lynch on a quasi-proven Townie. Funny how that works.

[MagikHorse]

Before I settle on someone I still have doubts...

@MagikHorse could you actually tell us how much time you have to play mafia and if the time that you have to play/dedicate to play has drastically changed recently? Plus, what's your view on the game so far without it being about brass?

Honestly depends on the day and my work schedule. When work is high, like it is this week and is forecasted to be for the rest of this week at least, I could have anywhere from 3-4 hours of free time to check on things (barring chores, other groups, and so forth, including the 15 minutes I have at work on my second break where I check on things). On lighter days, it could free up another few hours during the afternoon depending on how early I get off (usually 1-3 hours, variably). Saturdays tend to be free between lunchtime and 4-5 but full from there on 'till bed. Sundays are usually free after church, except for once a month when I head off to a group to play cards for most of the day. I am staff on a Garry's Mod server though, and that eats up a lot of free time, so these numbers are a fair bit higher than my actual free time tends to be.

My view on this game is that it's a mess, and I can't read jack out of anyone right now because either there's too little coming from people (Not_Mafia in particular) or too much nonsense coming from people (this mess between me and Brass and that mess between .

As to Brass' very, very blunt response, if only you had said that bit about the twilight callout earlier we could've avoided this whole argument! Even though I brought up the twilight callout in every single one of my posts on this matter, we got caught up in the case and countercase and completely forgot that the callout was the lynchpin of the whole thing, even though it was the biggest of my points from 351! Now that I finally have what I was looking for, that one little bit that ties it all together, NOW I understand.

UNVOTE:

I also owe you one heck of an apology. The original intent was to put on a little bit of pressure to squeeze the info out of you gently, but either I put on more pressure than I thought I did or you're more explosive than I expected and it got all kinds of out of control. Either way, my suspicions have been quelled altogether.

[MagikHorse]

The second big mess is the one between Wilky and Fumiki, but I accidentally posted before completion. My browser's screwing up too, so I'm gonna check that out.

[MagikHorse]

Do you know what a bus is? I don't think you do given the above.

[MagikHorse]

The Scum probably knows of the existence of a jailkeeper from last night's failure to kill, although if they did actually attack me they might be unsure since the Jailkeeper could've avoided the obvious target expecting the obvious target to be too obvious and therefore passed up. Town doesn't really need to know who the other PR is yet, as saying it aloud for Town to hear also means saying it aloud for the scum to hear. There's still a case for scum randomly attacking someone else, but attacking me last night does seem like pretty poor play outside of having absolutely no ideas on who to kill whatsoever and/or really failing to pay attention whatsoever.

I also don't like that half of your "case" you brought up earlier was taken from my spat with Brass and completely ignored the end result of said spat of being a mutual misunderstanding. I didn't see a townie reason behind the twilight callout, but he gave one while angry (and therefore not thinking as carefully, and therefore less likely to be making something up) that filled the hole perfectly when I expected no clean solution. He didn't understand my pressure vote and found it OMGUS, I showed him that I don't vote OMGUS and the vote was just pressure, not an accusation that he's scum.

Also, you're at L-1, a.k.a. one vote away from a lynch. You should probably put your focus on not being today's lynch yourself.

[MagikHorse]

MagikHorse who do you think is scum right now? Your top two suspects end of D1 were UCV and Vort but I don't feel like you've re-evaluated or re-centered today outside of the brass 1v1. What's your read on NM and myself? you don't seem to want to commit to a read on my slot at all

I'll get to the meat of this when I'm not at work or on my way to work.

I will say Not_Mafia really needs to post more actual information though. It was the same problem he had Day 1 now rearing its head again.

[MagikHorse]

We could do not_mafia instead. Fumuki just seems like a really weak wagon to me though.

I understand the reasoning behind Not_Mafia since they've basically done nothing useful outside of that small time at the end of Day 1. I'm wondering what your reasoning for calling the Fumiki wagon weak is though.

I will say this to Fumiki though, even if Scum knew there was a Doctor and they had a Roleblocker, they still don't know if there's a Cop or a Roleblocker to land us into A2 or A3,. Only once they tried a kill would they know which actually exists, either by failing to kill a jailkept UCV/Chamber or by failing to kill me/another non-UCV target.

[MagikHorse]

I asked because I more or less agree with it, but didn't have time at work to dive into why and was hoping I'd have your case to compare and contrast to when I got back. Even before getting to the deeper reads I was planning on doing when I got back, I'll say that I really just don't see scummish intent from Fumuki. I mean, why would scum go after Brass when I had just come around and said he was fine after our misunderstanding? Nothing else I recall seeing from them said "scum" either, so I don't get this rush towards him. Yes, his case on Brass is terrible and half stolen. No, a bad case doesn't make you scum.

As I have yet to take a closer look at Oneironaut this gameday and most everyone has been tricky to read thus far, there would be no real question for me to ask there besides "unpack this". I certainly wouldn't mind seeing your case against them, although they are the first person I was going to look at anyways due to calling out their intent to hammer way too early in the day. I find Not_Mafia similarly suspicious for putting them at L-1 with a naked vote, but their ISO is so small and full of gibberish.

To all of you going "where are your reads?", well, you just got my gut reads right there. Now off to dive deeper into this.

[MagikHorse]

Everyone consensus (even from you) was that If the doctor claim was true, there's no benefit from intentionally not killing

I remember saying that I believed it

unlikely

that the scum would nokill, not

impossible

. Do not get these confused.

As unlikely as it may be and as much as I don't believe they would intentionally nokill with a claimed Doctor, it is still a possibility and still lingers in my mind as such since there is no way for me to confirm it one way or the other.

[MagikHorse]

Well, I've read into Oneironaut so far. Now I'm wondering how I missed most of this stuff tbh.

Day 1 is a bit questionable at points. They get suspected quickly by Brass, and respond by redirecting things to Not_Mafia in 100 instead. 113 follows that up with a really bad threat to leave in an attempt to relieve pressure which has me wondering exactly what they were thinking. Then there's the big mess in 169 where they sheep Not_Mafia right after scumreading them, then trying to scramble to defend against this in 173 and 205. The only really good thing they did that day was calling UCV out for breaking his IC advice in 212.

Day 2 is what gets me. 384and 405 both say that they have no intent to hammer Fumuki, and then they put down an intent to hammer this early in the day as a bluff? Just what is this bluff going to do? The only thing it brings is suspicion towards you, especially as Fumuki is more focused on other things than defending themself and you're already reading them as a townlean. It gets no attention from Fumuki and only makes you suspicious, so what's the point?

If you're still here, please explain this bluff. If you're not, well, I guess I'll be wishing you luck in solving this IRL problem.

[MagikHorse]

Brass already had a scummy ping on Floosh before Floosh said anything against Brass (see post 30). That "he went after Floosh for suspecting him" argument is bad. I suspected Floosh for the very same post Brass did, so I totally get this suspicion.

The whole "he switched from Magik to me when I suspected him" is also wrong because Brass had multiple scumreads, one of me and one of you. Switching from one scumread to another scumread is nothing unusual. He similarly switched from a weaker scumread to a stronger scumread when our spat blew over, which follows the same idea and keeps his vote on the player he deems most likely to be scum.

A 180 insinuates suddenly scumreading a townread, but since you weren't a townread to begin with it can't be a 180 too, while I'm at it.

I cracked up at the "You weren’t suspect of Magik? WHATAHELL?" part. Then I used my search function all over Brass' ISO trying to find this miracle part where he townread me, and you know what? I couldn't find it at all. This whole part here is made up gibberish.

Vortigaunt had his own problems that Nuclear didn't. Vort isn't a bad player despite the mistakes he made, but he still ended up digging himself into a small hole and ended up being a lynch of necessity in the long run. The earlier read on Nuclear matters some, but not that much when time is running short, no more claims could really be made, and the replacement is one of the scummiest players alive at the time. It'd be like if I replaced out and was replaced with the absolute best Town player you can imagine. Even though I'm scummy to most, his play would matter moreso with him on the table than my play would unless I scummed myself beyond salvation first before replacing out. Not all of the previous owner's deeds seem to translate through a replace-in, with my guess being that it's a town-given chance to improve their situation and be read for how they play the role they're given instead of how the person before did. This is merely what I've seen through some of the games I've looked at and not a full analysis of replace-ins though, so what I see there may differ from what others see in replace-ins, and my sample size is small and mostly from Newbie games.

Really, the only good part about that case is the part about him making me make a readlist before bashing it when he said readlists don't mean much. Beyond that, this case doesn't really hold water, and that one piece doesn't counter what I've seen from him from our misunderstanding.

Wanna hear a better argument? Not_Mafia is doing nothing and helping the town in nothing and likes explaining nothing unless it conveniently steers him away from being lynched. We should make Not_Mafia a nothing. Bam! A better argument in much fewer words.

VOTE: Not_Mafia

[MagikHorse]

That first point is still kind of bleh. There is still a reason for Town to pressure as many possible scum to get better reads on them, and the whole "it's only people that suspect him" is easily coincidence.

He's also allowed to change his mind gosh dangit, 5 minutes apart or no. You're also still assuming that his reasoning is "you're suspecting me" when he had reason to suspect you to begin with.

If I want to write a lot, I'll write a lot. I'm eager to explain things when I can, alright? If you're point is just "you write too much", there's no concern there at all. I mean, did you think he was going to steer the entire town back to Not_Mafia or something? That's about his only alternative at this point to lynch anyone else.

"You weren’t suspect of Magik? WHATAHELL? YOU HAVE BEEN PINGING HIM AS SCUMMY SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THIS GAME, LOOK AT YOUR OWN ISO. The fact is, you were suspicious of him, and now are saying that you only was afraid of a nightkill and wanted to deliver your message."

Why even say "OMG you weren't suspect of him" when he never was anything but suspect of me? This is copy/pasted from your own case and makes absolutely no sense whatsoever. On that note, why yell at me for countering a nonexistent townread on me when you're the one that brought it up to begin with?

My vote on brass was a little pressure, not a real vote. Had people jumped on it, I would've bailed since I myself wasn't going for a wagon.

"You weren’t suspect of Magik? WHATAHELL? YOU HAVE BEEN PINGING HIM AS SCUMMY SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THIS GAME, LOOK AT YOUR OWN ISO. The fact is, you were suspicious of him, and now are saying that you only was afraid of a nightkill and wanted to deliver your message."

What about that first part means you weren't saying he was townreading me? Why say "you weren't suspect of him" so incredulously unless you believed somewhere that he wasn't suspicious of me? Why hurl this at me too when it's your fabrication?

[MagikHorse]

And another person I'm mid-discussion with gets up and walks away. Uuuuuuuuuugh. That argument was dumb anyhow and completely failed to see anything but the scummy side, completely forgetting the town side of the coin and failing to give any motivation for any of it.

Given that the conveyor in my building blew several components and I had to load things onto skids ye olde fashioned way to get product out the door, the less stress I have to deal with the better. Turns out the olde fashioned way is slow as nuts and a lot more work, and now I'm thoroughly exhausted. Thanks Friday the 13th. You always know how to mess with me.

[MagikHorse]

He's not 100% confirmed, but still more likely to be doc than a fakeclaim from what we can gather. The night could only go a few ways here, and the most likely seems to be a Jailkeeper protected UCV (now Chamber) Night 1 to prevent the night kill.

Some other possibilities include:
* Me somehow being the kill target and protected by him. This is still pretty unlikely given the shade thrown at me during twilight and the ease which I could be used as mislynch bait, although it allows for either a cop or jailkeeper since it means the scum avoided trying to kill the Doc claim, in fear of a possible jailkeeper I presume.

* A Jailkeeper jailing the killer or non-UCV target by chance, guessing that the scum would avoid the obvious Doctor kill that was likely to be protected.

* Intentionally nokilling. With the discussion of MYLO versus LYLO day 1, a case could be made for the scum nokilling to force us into a lower-odds MYLO situation instead of a LYLO situation by being swayed through that discussion. This seems pretty unlikely to me unless the scumteam is 2 newbies and got excited about hurting our odds from that discussion, since a Town PR worth as much as the Doctor is worth killing if possible.

The B and C columns are also incredibly unlikely unless UCV was fakeclaiming, as neither column could offer protection for a Doctor and would almost guarantee that he would be the Night 1 kill, which throws us into either A2 or A3

[MagikHorse]

If you're going to refer to posts by number, I'd suggest using post tags to link right to them. For instance if you wanted to link to the rules post, you could do something like this:

Code: Select all

[post]1[/post]

Which shows up as 1 and links directly to the post you're referring to. You can either manually type the code out, or use the post button in the "preview" section and add the relevant post number between the brackets.

Can't blame you for not copy/pasting specific passages, as that makes posts into walls really fast as seen in the last few pages, and nobody likes walls.

[MagikHorse]

Also gonna say Bugs' case on Brass is a lot better built than Fumiki's was.

Also pondering if Ceejay's 490 is a typo or a scumslip. I'm definitely keeping an eye on that slot at any rate.

[MagikHorse]

I get that Brass isn't perfect and could be suspected because of that, but what pings you about Bugs? Why these two together when Bugs just made a case against Brass? Do you think that's a bus or something?

[MagikHorse]

It would be extremely weird for the mafia to have shot you. Not buying it.

If the scum thought that UCV/you were likely to be protected (you know, 50% chance for a Jailkeeper, high chances that they'll jail UCV and stop the kill), they would then go for someone who people generally thought of as Town, and Brass fits that bill nicely. I'd consider him a reasonable alternative if you were expecting a jailkeeper block on the doc, both for the Jailkeeper and for the scum, so just what's so weird about it?

Come on Brass. I have faith in you at least. Don't give things up just yet.

[MagikHorse]

My question is "why Brass"? I get that he could be jailed scum, but he could just as easily be jailed Town that was attacked given how likely he is as an alternative target to avoid hitting a jailed UCV. I just don't see making this kind of toss-up decision here on someone who is a reasonable nightkill target to avoid the kill being jailkept.

Knocking out Chamber as the doc, ceejay as the Roleblocker, and some combination of me and Brass as protect targets, that leaves 4 better lynch targets to choose from: Not_Mafia, Oneironaut, Wilky, and Guiltylion. We all know my thoughts on Not_Mafia as useless, with the only notable things to him being a cruddy push on UCV and then redirecting attention on him to Vort and Oneironaut. This seems like a better starting point to me that could tell us a bit about Oneironaut's loyalties to boot.

[MagikHorse]

Really, the same 50:50 logic works for Not_Mafia too in my example above. Even if you don't count me and Brass in there and call it 25:75, it helps us sort out 2 people instead of just 1, as a scum Not_Mafia flip means we won't really have to worry about Oneironaut as potential scum.

[MagikHorse]

That's mainly because I wasn't counting the reduction of the player making that call themself, which of course knocks themself out as well. Call it random all you like, but at least we'd be going off of what Not_Mafia has and hasn't done over trying to guess at scum night actions to get to our conclusions.

I disagree with your "overvaluing what Not_Mafia said about Oneironaut". For as much as scum like to bus, they don't like doing it on Day 1 with this few people, and I just don't see it as likely.

As it is, I'm stepping off of this podium altogether. You're more than welcome to make this lynch if you deem it the correct choice, but I will have no part of it. If Brass wants to defend himself, he can get off his butt and do it himself instead of wallowing in disappointment. It's not my job to do this for him, and I'm done with it.

[MagikHorse]

Just saying "He's a troll" would've sufficed there. Either way, your point here has been made.

[MagikHorse]

I'm just trying to figure out why this game feels so much worse than my first when that game had both PRs claimed against a fakeclaiming townie Day 1.

[MagikHorse]

Nearly everyone other than you has requested replacement, that never feels good. But also its a highly interactive game. Who you are interacting with matters. Not everyone has good chemistry.

You can say that again, just look at my spat with Guilty day 1. That really felt like bad chemistry there, and it's still making him a bit harder to read than most as I have to try and split apart what's just his unusual playstyle and what's actually worth looking into. Even with all the bad plays going on in my first game, from fakeclaiming townies to claims that didn't need to be made to suicidal townies digging themselves into a hole, it just felt easier to read people.

And yeah, I can't blame you for talking down to me a little. I'm a bit off my game this time around, and with such an awkward game comes low motivation to see things through, and I just don't really have much of an urge to really face this, but I'm still too determined to drop out. Either I die, or I live to get endgamed by the scum. That's the only way this ends for me, no matter how well or poorly the people around me play or how many mistakes I make along the way.

[MagikHorse]

Still kind of sad that it's just me, Oneironaut, and Guilty from the original crew though. That certainly isn't making anything easier here.

[MagikHorse]

They can't kill the Cop with the Doctor still alive, but they can't kill the Doctor because there might be a Jailkeeper and at that time they didn't know which role existed. It's not a simple or easy choice to make to go after the doc or go after someone else to avoid losing their kill.

Basically, what are you trying to say here beyond "the scum wanted to know the other Power Role"? That seemed obvious to me already.

P.S: there's no Cop, and even if they kill the cop it's not worth trading a scum for a cop. Any Scum kill is advantageous to Town here.

As to Bugs replacing Oneironaut, I completely forgot because the OP hadn't been updated at that time. Also missed Brass somehow, which still leaves 3 out of the original 9, which is still pretty bad for replace-outs.

[MagikHorse]

Here's hoping things are more fruitful tomorrow, I guess.

[MagikHorse]

By the way, was really vanilla town. So ask yourselves who would shoot me at night. Theu must have RBed doc.

The latter part of this makes some sense. A roleblocked doc under suspicion isn't worth much. I fear for our PRs tonight, as I know one of them is going to wind up dead tonight.

Also, can I say I told you so?

[MagikHorse]

Alright then.

I TOLD YOU SO.

[MagikHorse]

Pretty sure everyone saw that coming, and now I'm pretty sure we're in MYLO that can't quite be announced because a Town Protective still exists. If anything, I'm kind of glad for the extra person now, as it means scum can't just quickhammer with a single vote out. It puts a little more importance on our Jailkeeper, since his vote matters so much more now, as it takes a unanimous Town decision to lynch someone without scum on the wagon. Either way, the only thing that'll happen by passing today will be the death of our Jailkeeper and the similar reduction of votes needed, which just makes scum more powerful for the nest day. Nolynching is an option best avoided.

We should still be careful not to put people at L-2 unless we're sure they're scum though. Scum are tricky and would love nothing more than to hammer us down into the ground.

Still really surprised that Not_Mafia has avoided the rope twice without doing anything for the town whatsoever, but he's still only one option out of 4 right now (one out of 5 for our Jailkeeper). I'll look into the other 3 options when my back's not in so much pain, as I think I pulled a muscle at work yesterday and it's hurting like crazy right now.

[MagikHorse]

I also agreed that it was a bad lynch, but apparently that only makes me suspicious for... reasons? Let's be honest, if he did flip scum, fighting against that lynch would've easily been read as scum protecting a buddy, but apparently fighting to protect someone I find as Town is suspicious? Seems like there's either a total disconnect and I'm scummy either way the coin flips and there's no connection at all, or it was a poorly worded way of saying "If he flips Town, Magik is also probably right elsewhere so check him out" without saying it in a very good manner. I just don't get it.

With that being said, I have two questions for you Not_Mafia:

Why did you believe the lynch was bad?

If you really believed this lynch was bad, why didn't you at least try to do anything to stop it?

Prepost edit: Also answer the above.

[MagikHorse]

That first paragraph is RE:550 for clarity. I accidentally deleted the part where I mentioned the post by number.

[MagikHorse]

You've done jack shit for helping the Town throughout the entire game.

You pushed and spammed hard for the Detective claim's lynch instead of trying to let things resolve naturally.

You've conveniently redirected the town to Vort in one of the only times you've actually cared to say more than a few pointless words.

Your "reads", if that's what 365 were, are all too conveniently aligned with the general Town opinion of the time and have no explanation or reasoning at all.

You're ridiculously LAMIST saying "Good thing I wasn't on that horrible, no good, very bad lynch wagon", especially for someone who put absolutely no effort into defending their supposed townread.

Then you started pushing me, another person that was also not on that lynch when you should reasonably be agreeing with due to seeing the same thing and took a fair chunk of the second half of the day defending them.

Now you're avoiding questions directed at you all so you can push for the two easiest lynches you can think of without even so much as a word to back it up?

There is no way any of this aligns with a town agenda.

VOTE: Not_Mafia

It's time to stop complaining about how bad this game has been and do something to make this game better, and by that I mean earn the joy of lynching the scum I've found right here.

[MagikHorse]

Also answer the questions kthx.

[MagikHorse]

Why yes, I do think scum would come up with whatever they could to reach their conclusions. Let's be honest, given the nature of that lynch as a "50:50" that Chamber was pushing it as, there's no way to tell what percentage of scum/not scum there were. Now I see at least one wanted off: you.

You're still not answering any of the questions directed at you too. I highly suggest you do this.

[MagikHorse]

It seems like I'm scum's designated mislynch

More like you've done nothing but dodge these questions, questions which should be incredibly easy to answer at that. Need I point out how that's scummy? Now I can add trying to play the emotional game instead of actually providing any sort of evidence to your list of scummy actions too. You're just going "Woe is me! How could these two people I've called scum for no reason dare to come after a poor, defenseless Townie!". In my last game, I very nearly threw the game because of this same brand of heartstring pulling, and quite frankly I would've deserved it if I had lost that way because it is really, really scummy man.

If you want to call us scum, case us, but first stop trying to pull our hearthstrings and actually answer these questions. I'd be more upset that Bugs put you at L-2 if I wasn't so darned certain that you're scum with this kind of "dodging the question" behavior and emotional play on top of doing absolutely nothing Townie for the first 2 days. It's why I wanted to lynch you Day 2.

571 is also shitty fluff. I never said don't push people that are off the wagon. I said don't push people you agree with on this kind of fundamental level when there's evidence of this. In my case, I proved my disagreement by fighting it tooth and nail until my efforts proved futile. If you were actually Town that agreed that this lynch was bad, you would see a mirroring of your own thoughts here, but you're not.

[MagikHorse]

Also where the heck is everybody else? 2 people have yet to post since day start, and ceejay just popped in to tell us his jail target even though there's basically a 100% chance he was roleblocked last night.

[MagikHorse]

> Questions still unanswered
> ???

[MagikHorse]

There is no reason for town not to answer them. The only reason not to answer is because you are scum and don't want people looking into your motivations.

[MagikHorse]

We asked our questions first.

Besides, I see no points here.

[MagikHorse]

I suppose it is.

[MagikHorse]

Honestly, you should've kept that vote there. L-2 or not, it's a vote on scum. Scum's not gonna quicklynch themselves.

[MagikHorse]

I'd be more upset that Bugs put you at L-2

This is scum talking to their partner

Message received I see

Clipping that sentence short is the only reason why it sounds like a scummy message to begin with. Chop off half of the message and the whole meaning changes.

Only more evidence of your manipulation to make us look bad.

[MagikHorse]

I was wondering when you were gonna put your vote where your mouth was.

[MagikHorse]

@magik - assuming NM really is scum, who is his partner?

Can't tell. He's been so closed lipped to avoid giving anything away. I mean, look at how little his ISO actually says! He can't even answer any of the questions from me or Bugs!

I do need to look into the alternatives at some point, but seeing how everyone else reacts to this wagon will help immensely in finding his partner.

[MagikHorse]

The issue I see with that is you're still trading 1 scum for 1 PR. I don't see a PR for Scum trade being favorable for the scum, especially since scum would know after that Doc claim that the remaining PR is either a Cop or Jailkeeper which could easily end the remaining scum through sheer chance with a guilty verdict or a lucky jail and the Scum doesn't know which exists to try and play around them. Even if UCV's doctor claim wasn't trusted, I don't see guaranteeing the death of 1 PR to be worth outing yourself as Scum for if you think people are open-minded enough to look at alternatives, and at this point everyone was open-minded enough to look elsewhere.

It's an interesting gambit, but I just don't think scum would want to take a risk this big since failure could mean a loss then and there to the other PR.

Pre-post edit: Bugs, he got all the way to L-1 before he claimed VT and redirected to Vortigaunt. It wasn't just 1 or 2 votes.

[MagikHorse]

PR for scum trade is generally worth for scum, especially later in the game on D2. Scum fakeclaim or speedhammer PRs at L-1 frequently - I can link a few games where this happened when I get back on a computer.

Scum win with 3 mislynches. PRs are hard to mislynch and cause more problems for scum, so getting rid of one and getting a mislynch at the same time is a huge win for them

Sure, they get through 1/3 of their wincon if they believe the counterclaim (which in and of itself could backfire in some cases where the original claim is more believable. Probably would be believed here though due to UCV's odd claim timing), but they also give Town 1/2 of their wincon too (lynch 2 scum) on top of allowing the Town to look at interactions between the scum and the other players. The Town wins more than the scum do here, both in numbers and in the information the Town desperately needs. This is why it works better late Day 2, as they're already 1/3 of the way through, and therefore they're trading the ability to get up to 2/3 of their wincon to let town get to 1/2 of theirs. In that situation, things even out and both teams basically earn 50% of their remaining wincon.

If I was scum considering a gambit like this, I'd be looking over the possible second PR to see the threat they could bring upon the scum, and since I'd know who the Scum PR was, I could probably figure it out from the one existing claim. If the remaining PR would be something weak like a Neopolitan, it might be worth giving up the Scum PR and leaving the Neo as a Named Townie to be killed the next night or later on. Against a Cop or Jailkeeper though, that's one heck of a dangerous game as either one could mean a loss for the Scum in one night action. Both roles pose a potentially bigger risk to the Scum than the Doctor claim did, and reducing the number of targets a Cop would have to look at night 1 is a boon to Town the same way that too many VT claims can make it easy for the Scum to find Town's PRs.

"Generally worth" or not, the numbers line up in Town's favor instead of the Scum's favor on Day 1 (not counting information gained from interactions, which usually isn't negligible) and it still leaves the scum very wide open to a Cop or Jailkeeper. This scenario in particular is probably the biggest gamble of all scenarios I could think of in this format to the point where I just really, really don't believe they would want to trade a Doc for a Scum given how easy it is to backfire and cost them the game.

[MagikHorse]

This is a good point though. Magik I want to see your answer to this.

I already gave one in 576. Here, let me copy it over.

I never said don't push people that are off the wagon. I said don't push people you agree with on this kind of fundamental level when there's evidence of this. In my case, I proved my disagreement by fighting it tooth and nail until my efforts proved futile. If you were actually Town that agreed that this lynch was bad, you would see a mirroring of your own thoughts here, but you're not.

You'll note this is the same logic used against me in Guilty's post 114. If it's good enough for Guilty to use against me, it's good enough for me to use against Not_Mafia.

Who is "we" and this isn't a school playground you can't go after someone for not answering questions and then not answer questions directed at you out of spite.

"We" is me and Bugs, as we both asked questions to Not_Mafia to have them ignored altogether and he very clearly wanted his question answered as much as I wanted mine.

Last I knew, I couldn't respond to thin air either, hence my "I see no points" bit. Don't call it spite when there was nothing to respond to other than two instances of "No" (which you can't really argue), and "This is scumtalk between these two" (which is highly assumed and similarly can't be argued without one of us two flipping scum or an explanation of why he thinks this is scumtalk).

There is literally nothing there to respond to.

Also, how is he allowed to get away with "not answering questions" scot-free when it's a point against me? It seems a bit one-sided to call me out for not responding to something and letting him off for doing the same thing. Why are you allowed to call me on things that I can't call him out for?

So no inclinations at all about who you're biggest scum read may be partnered with on d3? This is so fence sitty it's unbelievable

You missed the part about me waiting for reactions to this wagon didn't you? Funny, because you quoted that bit too and seem to have entirely missed it. Not_Mafia's closed lips are really interfering with any ability to find a buddy through interactions on top of that. Since that's not working and I still need to catch up on the alternatives and determine which reactions are good or bad, there is no other answer for me to give but "I don't know" right now, "fence sitty" though it may be.

[MagikHorse]

This sure means a lot to you huh.

A fair bit, but really I just have way too much time to think simple things like number games through on the work floor. It didn't take long for me to realize that the numbers just really don't make sense here.

Also the fact that people are defending someone I see with no redeeming qualities with puzzling WIFOM-ey situations, and that caught my attention enough to actually go through things and figure it out.

[MagikHorse]

Wilky, you did amazingly well at staying under the radar and sounding Townie for most of the game. You kind of burned that up with post 627 to the point where I strongly debated calling you as the scumbuddy off of it when I was writing 629 though, so you might wanna keep an eye out there to avoid making really silly looking accusations. Seriously, I had either brought up everything there already or there was nothing to bring up at all, and in every case I had already said something about that elsewhere. On top of that, it sounded like you were siding with Not_Mafia and calling him out in the same post, which just sounded really weird to me.

GuiltyLion was always gonna be a hard read. Not disappointed to miss that one.

I'm honestly upset by Not_Mafia though. I'm not sure if he was just trolling or whether there was actually some sort of strategy to being that anti-Town, but I for one really want to know just what the heck your plan was supposed to be.

[MagikHorse]

You need to just accept that some people don't play the way you do. I don't think he was being especially anti-town.

I disagree with this, but it's an opinion and therefore never right nor wrong. I already said I saw absolutely no redeeming factors in his play this game, and I meant that. I'd love it if someone could prove me wrong here.

Even then, I know very well that some people do have different playstyles. I went over that on Day 1 talking with GuiltyLion even. That doesn't mean that all playstyles are

good

. This one in particular just seems baffling and terrible, and it's definitely more than enough to give me pause about joining into any games with Not_Mafia in them at any rate.

My biggest concern was how different he was to my first game, where he was short on words like this but actually made them mean something most of the time. It's got me wondering just what the difference between these two games is. Was it just because he was a Power Role in that game, or is it something else?

[MagikHorse]

I legit had no clue who was in what slot at the end of the game. I couldn't keep my reads straight.

My head in a nutshell.

No wonder why I was "fencesitting" eh?

[MagikHorse]

And you casually missed the part where everything had already been spoken and responded to that had anything to actually respond with, which makes all those points redundant. Besides, what else would you expect me to see in that but scum, given that it came off incredibly biased in Not_Mafia's favor? As I was reading Not_Mafia as hard scum, awkwardly attacking him and defending him by attacking me is only going to make you look like scum.

If you think the whole reason behind it was OMGUS, you're mistaken on that. I've said not once, not twice, but 3 times this game that I don't vote OMGUS. If I vote someone, it's because I have a reason to it, regardless of their stance on me.

It doesn't change the outcome anyways as you got the quickhammer off, I'm just sayin' that was still a really shoddy argument. I'm trying to help you figure out what made it come off as suspicious to help you grow. If you don't want to do that, that's your choice.