Open 716: Making Friends and Enemies [Game Over]

[Ankamius]

Good morning!

I'll start reading through things that seem interesting and see where that takes me. Anything in particular I should pay attention to besides the source of the current two wagons?

[Ankamius]

I'm not getting a whole lot just from reading through the game so far, so I'll likely just skip the rest and focus more on the current wagons and seeing where that gets me, especially since what I have now is enough context to be able to turn those into actual reads on their own.

But as for what I have so far:

Kmd4390: Light-Moderate Scumread.
Sando (Something_Smart): Light Scumread.
Gamma Emerald: Very Light Scumread.

Verydark: Dead null. That self-vote did a lot of damage for this.

Myloninja13: Light Town.
Mathdino: Light-Moderate Town.
GuiltyLion: Moderate Town.

[Ankamius]

That read is entirely based on Sando's posting, not Something_Smart's.

I haven't read anything after the point where he replaced out yet.

[Ankamius]

Wheeeeeeeeeeeeeee

VOTE: Gamma Emerald

[Ankamius]

It's pretty simple actually. In day two, Kmd4390's posting got better, Something_Smart dropped the slot to null, and your posting got worse.

[Ankamius]

You sounded pretty engaged at the start of the day, though.

[Ankamius]

I'm the new Lil Uzi Vert, Green.

[Ankamius]

How strong is that read, SS?

[Ankamius]

all this posturing around scumreading me and no votes
cmon if you wanna mislynch me so bad why dn't you just do it?

Where exactly are you getting this from? I'm seeing two votes and one scumread, not a bunch of posturing without votes.

I'm not considering the scumreads before my vote because there wasn't any direct support for wagoning you until I voted you.

[Ankamius]

Also, how is this site usable on a phone? Posting is a huge pain in the ass.

[Ankamius]

Can you quote them for me?

[Ankamius]

Gamma's lack of a response is quite telling, my vote is staying.

[Ankamius]

3) verydark is just not doing a lot and making weird votes so he's not super town

He did enough day 1, and weird votes are town indicative more often than not. I thought his self-vote was very frustrated townie; why do you disagree?

This depends a lot on why they're weird. If people are making votes that don't match their thought processes, those are weird and scum-indicative. Is they're just following thought processes that go in weird directions but otherwise the votes follow those thought processes, then it's a lot more likely to be town.

Verydark is probably town here for other reasons though, so I'm a lot more willing to give his votes a pass than otherwise. I'm a lot more comfortable with him following my vote than Dave's wishy washy vote hop preparation, at least.

[Ankamius]

Are we going to ignore the other potential scum suspects to pursue the theory that GL is scum playing 10th dimensional chess on D2? Also no.

Also I don't see the logical basis for an extreme statement like this. I don't find the theory that GL is scum implausible or ridiculous, and so it's you who's deciding to ignore my scumread.

Do you have any particular basis for GL being scum? I don't see it in your ISO and it would go a long way in me being able to sort you once and for all.

On that note as well, do you have more on brassherald or is Post #620 the extent of it?

[Ankamius]

Ok, humor me. Which case would you call GL's weakest and why?

[Ankamius]

Checking in before bed, no CC from me.

I'll get back to Something_Smart tomorrow.

[Ankamius]

I'm here and reading.

[Ankamius]

I want everyone's profiles on the entire Dave wagon before end of day

Current reads?

Guiltylion - Moderate Town
Green Crayons - Light Town
Myloninja13: Very Light Town
Brassherald - Who?
Gamma Emerald - Strong Scumread

Can you talk to me about brass a bit and help me see why you think he's town? My initial PoE would suggest a Gamma/Brass scumteam, but I'm not confident I have a good read on the gamestate to the point where I trust my reads on GC and Mylo.

[Ankamius]

So your read on mylo is going to be based on how others are acting towards mylo?

pretty much yeah. are you going to say that's a bad way to read people, because I don't see how.

So mylo is a binary: scum or not scum.

You've decided that the way to determine that binary question is to look to people whose alignments you ostensibly don't know.

And then evaluate their motivations in terms of interacting with mylo.

Nevermind the fact that most of them will be town, so they are interacting with mylo in a manner regardless of mylo's alignment.

So you will need to first find one non-mylo scum, accurately identify who they are, and then evaluate whether that scum's play towards mylo suggests a "fallback option" mislynch or a "don't want to bus" avoidance.

This actually is how I'm going about reading Mylo too, roughly. It's a case of trying to get a read on someone that you can't read directly.

[Ankamius]

I'm not somebody that just gives away everything I notice willy nilly, especially when there is no compelling reason to.

If anyone really cares enough, I can go into it a bit more, but the groundwork is there for people yo have a rough idea where my read comes from.

[Ankamius]

Oh ffs

[Ankamius]

am I giving GC too much towncred? Is GC/verydark a thing?

Yes. GC's posts on the last few pages weren't town.

VOTE: brass
I actually feel like their voting today has been somewhat opportunistic

I can get on the brass wagon now, he's the only person I'm actually suspicious of now.

VOTE: Brassherald

I don't understand these votes. I'm liiiiiightly leaning town because trying to start a brassherald wagon doesn't make a whole lot of sense here as a scum play (especially from Gamma), but Mylo's general attitude is so weird here compared to the rest of his play this day phase that I could see it as a ploy to try to save the game from a Gamma/Mylo scumteam perspective, especially taking into account how Mylo dropped it very easily immediately afterwards.

---

@Math: Can you go into where your Mylo-town read came from with that exchange? I'm getting the opposite reaction.

[Ankamius]

I'll try to read through the rest and post stuff before the thread's locked. No guarantees for hopefully obvious reasons.

[Ankamius]

Alright, I'm read up.

GL is still town.
If Gamma flips scum, I want to lynch one of Brass+Mylo to resolve that really weird brass wagon interaction. I suspect that was a desperate play attempt.
If Gamma flips town, the above goes out the window, Green Crayons will be my strongest scumread.

[Ankamius]

I don't see Mylo, as scum, passing up the opportunity to lynch Gamma when Mylo is the clear only alternative
I do however see Gamma, as scum, pivoting off if Mylo for towncred, since he's been wking Mylo all game

I agree that Mylo/Gamma team has a shitton of equity though and I'm willing to lynch Mylo on Gamma scumflip

GC is a good call for town flip
My hesitancy comes from his drunkpost Dave case, which read genuine
So when GC becomes a contender I need to check his ability fake cases as scum
Ideally while drunk

If there's still time, can you give me what you have on brass? I asked earlier and I don't know if you saw it or not. I wanted to have a full discussion over it but there's no time for that now.

[Ankamius]

Anything specific to this game?

[Ankamius]

Hmmm...

That could be damage control if it's a Brass/Verydark scumteam, but just a quick look at Agent Sparkles' and BuJaber's ISO makes that idea assume the scumteam is utterly incompetent. I have a hard time believing both of Verydark's buddies would jump him so early in the day and then just leave things there after another partner starts getting strung up.

[Ankamius]

Alright, I'm content leaving brass on the backburner barring more flips. I don't think that's a slam dunk for brass-town, but it's enough for now.

The only thing that still trips me up is the brass vote by Gamma if Gamma is scum and Brass is town. If he wanted to start a new wagon that wasn't Mylo, why brass?

[Ankamius]

VOTE: Mylo

Where exactly did this come from?

[Ankamius]

I'd like Verydark's response before doing anything, please. I'm not satisfied with where my reads are at and it would help me solidify where my head is at for right now.

[Ankamius]

Alright, well, that post cleared up more things for me than I thought.

VOTE: Green Crayons

I'll go into it tomorrow (about to sleep for the night), but this is mostly PoE.

[Ankamius]

Okay, I was always going to vote Green Crayons regardless of what verydark posted (barring a stunning case or scumming up insanely hard), but my problems right now are relating to which townread I'm likely wrong on, since I have some measure of townread on everybody else.

Mylo doesn't look like scum to me by play. I am well aware that the chaotic newer town playstyle is a blind spot of mine, but I also get a bad feeling that he's the designated mislynch target for the day and that he was pounced on.

GuiltyLion is still probably town by play. I would have to reread to see if he makes sense as scum here, since a lot of my townread was based on a couple posts early on in the game and it's not impossible that was a fluke.

Verydark destroyed any towncred he had with me after that response. I wanted to know if there was something behind the Mylo-wagon angle or not (since I still think Brass is likely town via game state regardless, making VD the only option if it is), and his response gives a lot of weight to that in my eyes.

GC/VD is my bet on the scumteam now.

[Ankamius]

Mylo doesn't look like scum to me by play. I am well aware that the chaotic newer town playstyle is a blind spot of mine, but I also get a bad feeling that he's the designated mislynch target for the day and that he was pounced on.

And yet is not dead

.

Why would that mean he'd be dead?

[Ankamius]

Has anyone thought, "What if Mathdino is scum?"

Just me?

welp

[Ankamius]

There's also the fact that he's been bleeding town nonstop today, so.

[Ankamius]

I think her point was that, holistically speaking, the prominence of that wagon meant that scum were probably okay with it happening.

It's definitely a reason to doubt the Mylo-scum argument, at least.

I don’t get that argument at all. Mylo suspicions have repeatedly swelled and pulled back. Normally I would think that is even more indicative of him being scum because buddies don’t want to bus (here not as a compelling argument bc he only has 1 buddy left if he’s scum). But I don’t see how we go from a not-quite-applicable scum tell to a town-tell.

Am I misremembering the Mylo suspicions? Haven’t they been in the form of multiple wagons?

I was talking entirely based on today, which I thought was obvious by the way I worded it.

[Ankamius]

I also feel like scum is townreading me because they're scared of my green flip today.

I'm curious, do you have any ideas for what the next step would be if you flipped? Part of the reason I suspected Mylo was the designated mislynch today is because it clicks with the game state pretty well, so it's entirely plausible that this is true.

[Ankamius]

Mylo suspicions lead to a wagon early today, though.

That doesn't actually disprove my point at all, though. If anything it supports it.

[Ankamius]

It's a mystery to everyone.

[Ankamius]

Mylo's the single easiest target still in the game and there's precedent for there being support for the wagon. The way it started was sketchy as hell, and verydark didn't exactly assuage that.

2 + 2 = 4

[Ankamius]

Well

You win this one, Green Crayons, you and your rebuttal against a distorted version of the least relevant 1/3 of my statement.

[Ankamius]

(in all seriousness, Mylo is the

easiest

target still alive because they're the slot that's going to push back the least against pushes on them, there's ongoing support for their lynch, and they're in a narrow lynchpool. nobody else fulfills all three of those requirements)

[Ankamius]

(in all seriousness, Mylo is the

easiest

target still alive because they're the slot that's going to push back the least against pushes on them, there's ongoing support for their lynch, and they're in a narrow lynchpool. nobody else fulfills all three of those requirements)

And again this just ignores the entire game.

The only criterion that you just listed that arguably doesn’t apply to GL or myself is the “push back” factor, and Mylo has developed a very effective “well if I must be the lynch let it be for the greater good” tactic that smacks of scum who has found a good, non-aggressive refrain that got people off his back when he’s reached lynching point.

Fine, let's humor that we just disagree about this point for a moment.

What do you think of Brass+Verydark's votes on Mylo today and Verydark's response to me asking him about it?

[Ankamius]

snip

Just from looking at the posts you've quoted in this post, I'm getting the sense that he's been trying to diminish Math's influence on the game but is aware that there's not really a functional town reason to do so, at least that he is able to attack.

It's still iffy because that's not the most intuitive direction to go if you want to get out of that engagement intact, but the deflection itself looks like a weird way to distance from the vote.

[Ankamius]

I'm not convinced by the brass case.

Guilty or Kmd, is there a link between all the posts you're referencing that indicates an ulterior motive? A lot of what I'm seeing fits my own disinterested-town read on him.

[Ankamius]

Guilty or Kmd, is there a link between all the posts you're referencing that indicates an ulterior motive?

nah I wouldn't say I'm making a case for an ulterior motive so much as it just feels like he's jumping on convenient wagons and resorting to more safe/comfortable justifications like the gamestate rather than expressing genuine beliefs about the player being scum. His votes ping me as the kind you make when you're trying to make sure it sounds decent but you don't really have any townie conviction behind wanting to lynch the player.

like brass has voted Mylo multiple times yet I never feel like he's actually wanted to see him flipped

eh

Regarding Mylo, he's the slot this game where you get a choice between either using a lynch getting rid of him or facing the same question the next day. It's never really an exciting vote, but it's difficult to get a good grasp on the game since he's a big question mark right in the middle of it. I'm not really surprised he's deciding to sheep Math here over wanting to deal with that.

[Ankamius]

Regarding Mylo, he's the slot this game where you get a choice between either using a lynch getting rid of him or facing the same question the next day. It's never really an exciting vote, but it's difficult to get a good grasp on the game since he's a big question mark right in the middle of it. I'm not really surprised he's deciding to sheep Math here over wanting to deal with that.

sure, but brass hasn't even really tried to convince anyone of another being scum since his early GC push at the start of D2

I'd have to reread his posts around that time to double check that. I won't be actively here until after deadline (although I will probably be able to check in a couple times) so there's not much I can do there right now.

[Ankamius]

Ok I'm apparently seven pages behind.

Tl;dr me what happened up to now.

[Ankamius]

lol Math preemptively discredited that even before my flip

Like if mylo is actually scum I think Dino is his partner who is like "fuck it let's go all in."

but that's me just being salty

what

[Ankamius]

I'm starting to understand the brass-scum case now with these twilight posts.

The game is probably over with GC/Alisae/brassherald all being lynched; I still have no interest in humoring Math being scum.

[Ankamius]

Does brass-scum hard-defend his partner like this? That's on the fence between a desperate scumteam and too ballsy to be scummy.

[Ankamius]

Guilty, this might seem like a weird question, but what was your initial ping on brass?

[Ankamius]

Guilty, this might seem like a weird question, but what was your initial ping on brass?

1401 was the big one, but a lot of it was the lack of urgency to gamesolve on D2 - most of his pushes (other than BuJaber D1 vote and early D2 push) have felt fairly convictionless

Huh...

Interesting.

[Ankamius]

That kill simplifies a lot.

VOTE: Brassherald

[Ankamius]

UNVOTE: Brassherald

[Ankamius]

Actually, I'd like to hear all three of Brass/GC/Mylo's thoughts before we lynch, just in case.

[Ankamius]

Thoughts on Math, yes.

[Ankamius]

It's obvious by this point, but yes I am not a mason.

Is it known at all how adept GC is at PR-hunting as scum? Is it something he'd miss like this?

[Ankamius]

GC might've made the kill just to put Mylo in the lynchpool

That sounds like a really dangerous idea unless you're his partner.

[Ankamius]

Actually, now that I think about it, that's an obvtown marker.

I'm ready to vote when we're ready to end the day.

[Ankamius]

GC might've made the kill just to put Mylo in the lynchpool

That sounds like a really dangerous idea unless you're his partner.

What's dangerous about this
Kmd was hard defending Mylo and tunneling gc

If he already knew that Something_Smart + Alisae were masons (or substituted me into either of them, doesn't really matter), then the only way he'd be able to win if his partner is Brass or Mylo is by forcing a mislynch onto you or me.

Considering that a lot of people are scumreading him, a lot of people are scumreading Mylo, an increasing amount of people are scumreading Brass, and both of us are widely townread, that's a very tall order to achieve.

[Ankamius]

Actually... hm, it really does depend. An argument could possibly be made for lynching Alisae if he thought it was SS+me as the masons.

[Ankamius]

VOTE: Myloninja13

[Ankamius]

Actually, it would make sense for GC to kill KMD under that scenario, but that still is under the assumption that he wouldn't correctly identify the masons and instead think that I was one.

[Ankamius]

You're already locktown to me now, Math. I'm pretty convinced that #1971 is not a post scum would ever make.

[Ankamius]

TBF, you were already like 99% town before that, but the reassurance is very nice to have.

I just want to know who the town among the three is, which I'm not entirely sure of. What were the original reasons Brass was town again? It was about bussing BuJaber and one other thing that I remember.

[Ankamius]

It's basically a vote for effect. The post before that pinged.

[Ankamius]

UNVOTE: Myloninja13

[Ankamius]

Alisae, Math is town. Don't get distracted.

[Ankamius]

VOTE: Green Crayons

===[]

[Ankamius]

to hammer or not to hammer

Let me know sooner rather than later so I know whether or not to put in effort to find the last scum.

Mylo

Ank

Dino

It honestly was a lot closer until this post.

[Ankamius]

No competent mod would let the game state influence that.

Unless you're asking about who asked about it?

[Ankamius]

Somebody has asked whether the nights could be made shorter.

This is the key point making it NAI, Math.

[Ankamius]

VOTE: Myloninja13

I don't have time to do anything else right now but I'll have time to engage later on today.

[Ankamius]

Okay look I'm being a jerk, and I'm sry for that.
tbh this situation actually really sucks for you if you're town, I am going to read you and mylo and solve and stuff
Like I actually am going to put in the work and effort to try during F3

but one of my biggest concerns is I don't think Mylo shoots Mathdino and creates this F3, that's just way too risky for him.
I've said throughout most of the game that I TR you and would have probably thrown the game over that read, and I think its makes way more sense for you to shoot Mathdino here.

Well... Here's the thing: I wouldn't take you + Math into 5p in the first place. Math was never townreading me for my slot, which would be dangerous, but you are also the most likely to catch me in general because you have more game experience with me than anyone else in the playerlist. I would've killed you far before now and taken SS or Kmd into LyLo depending on what their reads are before that.

Essentially, I'm not a very good scum, but I plan my kills very well to serve whatever agenda I have in mind. I don't see what agenda I would have that would have every kill after I replaced in, especially with a brass-partner.

[Ankamius]

I don't play scum like that.

As long as I have enough valid mislynches, then the only thing that matters is how likely everyone else is to find me out.

So why do I kill Davesaz? Kmd? Something_Smart?

Roles don't matter to me as scum, especially masons.

[Ankamius]

I don't understand what you're even referring to.

[Ankamius]

Well yeah, PRs that are townreading you are probably not going to screw you over with them.

On the other hand, people who know how my scum and town play differ are much more liable to suddenly realize I'm scum at any random point.

[Ankamius]

No? Why would it? Killing the people that suspect you the most is the optimal play in most games for a reason.

[Ankamius]

I'll go through more stuff tomorrow.

[Ankamius]

Okay look I'm being a jerk, and I'm sry for that.
tbh this situation actually really sucks for you if you're town, I am going to read you and mylo and solve and stuff
Like I actually am going to put in the work and effort to try during F3

but one of my biggest concerns is I don't think Mylo shoots Mathdino and creates this F3, that's just way too risky for him.
I've said throughout most of the game that I TR you and would have probably thrown the game over that read, and I think its makes way more sense for you to shoot Mathdino here.

Well... Here's the thing: I wouldn't take you + Math into 5p in the first place. Math was never townreading me for my slot, which would be dangerous, but you are also the most likely to catch me in general because you have more game experience with me than anyone else in the playerlist. I would've killed you far before now and taken SS or Kmd into LyLo depending on what their reads are before that.

Essentially, I'm not a very good scum, but I plan my kills very well to serve whatever agenda I have in mind. I don't see what agenda I would have that would have every kill after I replaced in, especially with a brass-partner.

I don’t remember you as well as you think I do.

That's not relevant, though. I think davesaz actually has more experience with me than you, but it's not very relevant since I don't remember him ever having any strong reads on me in any of our games or good read accuracy. Otherwise, I think I have 1-2 games with Gamma (not sure if I have and how many if so tbh) and 1 with GuiltyLion. You're the only one here wo's directly seen my towngame and my scumgame, I already know you're a player that values meta, and I think you're strong enough to be able to tell the two apart.

MathDino and Something_Smart are both people I haven't played with before, MathDino has the NSG read I can use as leverage, and Something_Smart doesn't have all three of the above advantages you have. I keep very aware on how people are reading me and how likely they are to switch to a scumread on me if they're townreading me; it just doesn't make any sense for me to specifically put you here.

[Ankamius]

Okay,

hopefully

tomorrow I can go through the game.

It depends on whether it's a furnace in here all day or not.

[Ankamius]

Alright, I'm reading through now. I'll have my thoughts soonish.

[Ankamius]

1.

Brassherald's voting record and general play

Spoiler:

Agent Sparkles is getting replaced.

...
Me no likey

You got a brassherald out of it, though.

Anyway, hello folks, I'll do a catch up later on. I read the ISOs on verydark and BuJaber, though since they are the leading wagons, and I think Sparkles was right with his last vote, right before that verydark started sounding town, then Sparkles never followed it up.

BuJaber, on the other hand, does his big posts without really saying all that much. Plus, he's trying to make this weird sort of push on Gamma who I find to generally be a mislynch target from the beginning.

VOTE: BuJaber

Gamma's likely town by the way. I also ISOd him. Full catch up later.

Some of you may know from previous games but I'll repeat myself here, I don't do the whole ranking read list thing, not my style. I also just do not have the time right now to do a wall post, but I read through the thread.

I'm not sure why Mylo and Kop are sitting around recently saying they basically have no reads. I find it strange, and I don't like it because at this point you should be able to sort SOMEONE.

I think Gamma is hard to read in general, which Math mentioned, but I think this is town Gamma, gut read. He seems to be more detached as scum, and not to care as much, here, seems like he cares. This read, because of the nature of me reading Gamma in general, though, is subject to change.

Math seems like town. He's been leading the charge on game solving and leading the charge on not looking for masons. I know this is late since I replaced in, but looking for the masons and telling the scum about it is stupid, don't do it.

BuJaber wagon is good. He's superficial, not providing anything in terms of content. I want back on the wagon.

VOTE: BuJaber

verydark I did play with briefly and spectated the rest of the game when I had to replace out, he was town, he's posting the same way here. He's another lynchbait target. I could find the link upon request of the previous game. (I'm just lazy and not going to right now)

Something_Smart also has very low content. He posts, but doesn't say much, and I always feel like that's a good place to be when you just want to survive the day.

Guilty Lion is working at reads, and slowly working out analyses on the list, I like this slot so far, despite a few missteps.

LUV I'm not clear on either way. But, I have too many people I see as worse, so not in my lynchpool.

pops, I have no idea on, I need to reread because I am just blanking on what pops has done and I have to be leaving in 5 minutes. (Reminder to me from me to do later)

KMD is doing good work, good analysis. Prob town.

Dave has reads, but no analysis or reasoning with them from what I can tell...

I'm thinking for now, Green Crayons is looking pretty "meh" overall. Kop was already lurking before the entrance, and I don't know about Kop's usual meta, but the way day 1 went, I wouldn't be surprised if one of the lurkers was scum.

696 was a post promising a catch up and "endorsing" the lynch while encouraging a claim. Then returns in 700 makes a general post on BuJaber, again, talking about a scum read of him. Sits back on the vote again. This is the most content he has produced, because the rest are mostly promising content or talking about things without reasons.

709 was a fluff post.

711 is a question to Gamma that seems to actually throw a bit of shade at both Gamma and pops in that it implies that no good point was made, rather than just him not understanding what the good point was.

712 are naked reads without analysis, promising more content.

777 and 778 are complete rehashes of what he said before, again, promising content he has not done. Remember the content promised in 778 and 712 had iover 48 hours between them.

779 is fluff again.

I'm not seeing real scumhunting or analysis, just promises to do so, which is what I've seen some scum do in games where they are not engaged.

VOTE: Green Crayons

Recent posts by Green Crayon are pretty okay. Also, Math, in regards to your list of lynches, I really dislike lining up all the lynches beforehand in any order. We need to be able to adjust to new information. I will not be following some preset list of lynches for you.

I'm also a bit curious as to why Mylo came in, said he talks more day 2 and says nothing else other than go with the idea that never gets him hanged. My vote looks good there while I drink my coffee this morning.

VOTE: Mylo

Vote Count 2.10

Votee	Voters
Myloninja13 (4)	Kmd4390 (863), brassherald (914), Mathdino (942), davesaz (948)
davesaz (3)	Green Crayons (965), GuiltyLion (1004), Gamma Emerald (1110)
Gamma Emerald (2)	Ankamius (1017), verydark (1019)
Kmd4390 (1)	Myloninja13 (882)

Not voting:

Something_Smart

With 11 players alive, it takes 6 votes to lynch.

VOTE: davesaz

The case here seems good, and the Mylo wagon is totally stalled.

Well, with a vote count, I'm willing to switch over. That fake town tell is something I have only seem scum do.

VOTE: Gamma L-1 for reals.

The only vote brass made up to that point (the only votes afterwards were his continued votes on Mylo and his GL lynch) that has conviction behind it is his Green Crayons vote. Both of his BuJaber votes are vague scumreads that he used to push his scumpartner down. His vote on Green Crayons actually had a decent amount of conviction behind it, which is really interesting since he dropped it not too much later on. I suspect what's going on here is that he was looking for a lynch target to push down, but then decided he didn't want to lynch Green Crayons after this post, so he decided he should try to scrape together as much towncred as he can to try to run solo after Mylo's inevitable lynch. This matches Brass being against MathDino's lynch order before that (which had Mylo second) as well as Brass' reasoning for voting Mylo looking fake.

Extra note: Davesaz claimed recruited mason right after Brass' vote change, and he changed back to Mylo afterwards.

Brass spends a lot of the game from then on parked on the Mylo wagon. Brass started losing hope as the game started falling to pieces around him after the game started getting PoE'd down, ending in him giving up entirely after Kmd flipped VT.

2.

Mylo's general tone throughout the game

Day one

: Mylo is almost completely inactive before BuJaber gets run up. He weakly calls BuJaber a scumread, but waits until he starts being called out for his vote (especially by his other stated townread, davesaz) to put his vote there.

Day two

: Floats along mainly; I think his vote on Kmd was arbitrary, but I believe he's trying to play the dumbtown card by this point since it worked for verydark before him. The most interesting thing here is this vote, which is the L-1 vote by davesaz. It's not really out of place on the surface with the rest of his play, but there's a survivalistic undertone to it by the way it differs from his votes before that. He was the L-1 vote on BuJaber, but he needed to be coaxed onto it. This time, he just... hops on. I think beyond the alignment difference, he realized when the votes piled onto dave that he still had a consistent stated scumread on that slot, so decided that with his general play so far, it would be explainable for him to put dave at L-1 despite the sudden extreme wagon speed. After Dave's claim, Mylo immediately backpedals.

He doesn't do anything until the Gamma suspicion starts building, which he tries to capitalize on, but Math calling him out makes him backpedal away from the vote once again. He tries to position towards a Gamma lynch in order to make his vote look less scum, but decides that it's too dangerous once the fake hammer comes out. He votes himself to hopefully pull out the same outcome as verydark did, but it doesn't matter because MathDino comes to his rescue immediately. There's a lot of weird positioning in the next few posts; he joins the upcoming brass wagon (probably to give brass even more towncred since Gamma had just voted him) and allows Math to talk him out of a brass lynch. Afterwards, he rejoins the Gamma wagon, but makes sure to try to not look like he's voting 'confirmed town' in the process.

Day three

: Math jumps on him very shortly after the day starts, which is interestingly the first time that Mylo actually puts a significant amount of effort into the game. Mylo's still playing to survive, which is really indicative of his overall content shift after Math started pushing him, although he's starting to have an unhelpful gus type of overall style. I think he's realizing by this point that his days are numbered and I don't think they had enough faith in brass' accumulated towncred to allow the Mylo-tunnel to get him to the end of the game. This explains why Mylo started pushing Green Crayons instead of GuiltyLion despite the latter being more for voting him at this stage of the game; Green Crayons at this point was onto Brass and their only hope was to get Brass to the end of the game.

Now, this is where GuiltyLion gets lynched and things shift. Now MathDino is being pointed at for a possible lynch and Brassherald is looking significantly worse than he did before. Now both are squarely in the lynch pool and it's looking like Brass will be lynched first of the two.

Day four

: Note that his tone switches back to his day one/two style. Both members of the scumteam are in the lynch pool and running through those will win the game, and I think Mylo understands that he doesn't have the influence to be able to put anybody else within the lynch pool. He very weakly tries to avoid a brass wagon, but naked votes it anyways once it's clear Brass is not going to be able to escape the noose (evident by his trollposting).

Day five

: Just posturing, making sure to keep playing the dumbtown card instead of actively playing for a win, since that's going to destroy any remote chance he has left.

Day six

: Mylo starts with the same dumbtown card, then immediately switches back to the day three tone now that he believes he has a chance to win.

Overall,

Mylo has been playing to survive

. He knows he doesn't have influence in the game, but he's been changing how he plays to account for what strategy he needs to use in order to avoid a lynch. He used Math for the first couple days, hiding behind his own dumbtown routine in order to avoid picking up too much suspicion, all while being very conscious of his stances and how they would look, resulting in him doing a lot of backpedaling and making sure that despite his very weak presence in the game, he was keeping his actual content as believable as possible. His tone switched on Day Three once it was clear he couldn't hide behind MathDino anymore, then realizes after the clusterfuck at the end of the day that playing this way is not going to win him the game... so he goes back to to the dumbtown routine.

3.

The nightkills

Night 1: popsofctown

- I don't really understand why this slot would die night one in general; the best two theories I have is that pops had no particular thoughts on either surviving scum and that he seemed least likely to follow Math's reads. It's hard to tell with either of them, although it could've just been an "idk wtf" type of kill instead.

Night 2: davesaz

- I think this kill was done solely because dave was never going to be lynched. Both Mylo and Brass have virtually zero control over the gamestate at this point and they're very likely relying on Math to win the game for them, so they don't want to shake up his reads too much.

Night 3 - Kmd4390

- Likely an attempted mason shot; I think the game plan here was to have GC and Verydark be the mislynches they need to win, and they shot Kmd to make use of Something_Smart indicating that he was leaning towards assisting with that. Unfortunately for him, Kmd was actually a VT, which prompted the play change from both Brassherald and Myloninja13 on day four.

Night 4 - Something_Smart

- Mylo 100% needs a mason nightkill and Alisae is both townreading him and has expressed an interest in lynching MathDino if the game isn't over after both the GC + Brass lynches. Pretty simple choice, honestly.

Night 5 - MathDino

- Really, what choice does he have here? MathDino

does

have an angle of attack on me... but he has a locktown read on NSG. Killing Alisae isn't very optimal here because of that combined with the earlier precedent that Math is unlikely to allow Mylo to get away with his play here if he really looks through Mylo's play throughout the game with as much of a comb as I have. Killing me isn't optimal partially because my hammer gained a lot of attention, but also partially because Math

definitely

would not allow Mylo to get away with his play here. He felt he had a better chance against me than against Math.

4.

Mylo's play today

Now, with all this in mind, what does Mylo do today?

a. Continues the dumbtown routine, already knowing that he made the right choice in nightkill and knowing that he needs to just not scumclaim and he probably wins. This is indicative in the way he tries to first pass me and my predecessors off as looking town.
b.

Btw if one of brass and GC flips town I’m lynching Dino
Just fruit for thought

Pedit: Ye its a good strat

Okay, so most of my points now should be one of the following. Why I'm town; and why ank is scum.

Why I'm Town

1. Why would I kill pops? I knew nothing about her or her play, and she certainly didn't seem like a strong town player. Not to mention, people were actually suspicious of her! Why would you kill someone that could be a mislynch in the future?
2. Why would I kill Kmd? As scum, I am overly pedantic and overly panic. I consider every option and spend ages thinking about the perfect kill, and Kmd would have easily not been it. I would have killed SS then, a person that had no people found suspicious and was much more likely to be town.
3. Why would I kill Mathdino? Like, seriously? In what world would I benefit from killing MathDino ever?!?
4. Brass tried to lynch me for 2 consecutive day periods. Instead of going for GC a little, or maybe even suggesting Ank as scum he went from me. And I also went for him, and lynched him with no "Maybe not?" at all.
5. To be continued...

Why Ank is Scum

1. That hammer on day five... Just wow. Ank, can you please explain why it suddenly became obvious to you why GC was scum?
2. ...I'll get back to this.


I just realised... the final three is somehow:

A town Verydark.
A town Myloninja13
A scum NSG.

Like, how is that even possible lol.

He points out the brass vote, the hammer yesterday, and a bunch of nightkill stuff that doesn't actually say anything.
c.

Okay look I'm being a jerk, and I'm sry for that.
tbh this situation actually really sucks for you if you're town, I am going to read you and mylo and solve and stuff
Like I actually am going to put in the work and effort to try during F3

but one of my biggest concerns is I don't think Mylo shoots Mathdino and creates this F3, that's just way too risky for him.
I've said throughout most of the game that I TR you and would have probably thrown the game over that read, and I think its makes way more sense for you to shoot Mathdino here.

Well... Here's the thing: I wouldn't take you + Math into 5p in the first place. Math was never townreading me for my slot, which would be dangerous, but you are also the most likely to catch me in general because you have more game experience with me than anyone else in the playerlist. I would've killed you far before now and taken SS or Kmd into LyLo depending on what their reads are before that.

Essentially, I'm not a very good scum, but I plan my kills very well to serve whatever agenda I have in mind. I don't see what agenda I would have that would have every kill after I replaced in, especially with a brass-partner.

The thing is, MathDino was hard town reading you, even if it was simply because of NSG. And Alisae barely came in at the last moment before F5, but I really don't think that you'd care between SS and Alisae for the kill.

And the agenda is pretty simple from after night 1. You killed a mason, then killed the worst of one of three options (Which may or may not have been on purpose so brass could claim it was a sus kill), then killed a confirmed mason and killed a virtually confirmed townie. Your agenda has been killing non-lynchable players.

Not only does this apply just as much to him, but he uses this as a stepping stone to try to discredit my argument about why the kills don't make sense for me.

Overall, it looks like this endgame was decided on just within the last night phase. Bringing Alisae + MathDino appears to have been the overall plan after Alisae replaced in, but that was switched at the last second to bringing me here instead after the backlash against my hammer. He thought he'd have a better chance against me than Math in LyLo and the way he's been playing today indicates all of this.

[Ankamius]

I'm actually having a hard time trying to find your wolfgames Ank.

I'm not surprised, I think it's been a couple years or so since I've rolled it here, at least without replacing out early.

Corpse party and Skullduggery's persona game are the two I remember, there might be some I'm missing though. I'll look more thoroughly once I have more time.

[Ankamius]

I think I wanted to hammer Ank based on their progression on Brass, Bu not bussing, a theory I have that NSG lowposts and would flake out of a wolfgame, Ank being more prepared for this F3, and Mylo's posts D4 and onward just seeming really towny.
But I didn't want to throw the game because I doubted math's hard TR on NSG and GC's mylo read. Plus if this IS an f3 that Mylo brings Ank and me too, its 100% because Mylo thinks he can use the hammer as a point of attac and hopes I'd buy that, so instead I hammered Mylo. sorry if you were town

Mylo oversold the dumbtown defense. If you really look at when he drops and goes back into it, it really makes a lot of sense with how the game changes over time. Mylo looks like he's less prepared because he didn't plan on this endgame until it dropped into his lap.

[Ankamius]

Meh

I needed to shut that down and I didn't.

Oh well

[Ankamius]

I was a bit upset I spent so much time on that case and lost to that but there's really no way to see if other than my own error. I don't think Mylo would have reacted the way he did if I had called out the gambit earlier.

[Ankamius]

i would call it out if i thought my opponent in F3 was extremely good at AtE or mimicking a town tone

This

It would've been plausible at least

[Ankamius]

To be fair, Math basically was the town.

[Ankamius]

I was on your wagon long before anyone else was, to be fair

[Ankamius]

ANYWAYS

I hope we're both town in our next game, Math. I'm actually curious whether and how well we'd work together as the same alignment.

[Ankamius]

I would've absolutely abused that locktown-read as town, btw. A loooooooooot more than I did here.

[Ankamius]

I think one thing that randomly worked out really well for this game was Mathdino and I both correctly townread the opposite players for most of it, so even though a couple mislynches got through there weren't really many available lazy wagons for scum to coast on. Like Math did a good job shielding Mylo and I feel like me townreading GC/verydark shielded them a bit. and then the rest of the people were both rather town by play and mason candidates so scum didn't have a big mislynch pool and would have had to pick some serious battles to stay deeply engaged

I didn't actually feel this very much at all; the far more damaging thing (and the single biggest reason town won) was verydark being a mason and then replacing out. One of my weaknesses is that I really struggle to make read changes look natural as scum, so suddenly having one of my mislynch targets completely taken off the table and replaced by a more competent player as well as accidentally killing one of my only possible mislynch targets left was really iffy since I wasn't sure how to go back on my Mylo-town read. I think town-me would've completely reset every read at that point, but it's hard to tell.

[Ankamius]

Like think about it.
How do you react as that as town?
Why would you call that out

as town

?
If it’ll make the kingmaker in F3 see that you’re town, then you do it, no matter how fake it is.
Basically mylo’s reaction was NAI except what made it alignment indicative is the fact that it was extremely believable.

Oh I'm not sure if I answered this, but if I was town here and my assessment on Mylo was correct (which it likely would be, even if it was subconscious in Mylo's mind), then it would have been protown to ruin the gambit preemptively since that kind of thing would've already been shown to be effective for Mylo to appear town.

I wouldn't go along with it because it would look fake; I noticed the lack of a hammer here, but I would've also noticed it as town. I'd be at a disadvantage regardless of who was scum and town.

[Ankamius]

Like the only people you're making wait for the dead PT is Me, Mylo, and Ank.
Everyone else probably already has it and I want to read it.
Factional PTs I personally disagree with but I get it and I know some mods do that.

Faction PTs being delayed are understandable in a way since sometimes there's stuff in there that really shouldn't be shared, but yes for dead PTs.

I mostly just want to see how terrible the dead thread rates my play and embarrass myself via scum pt at this point

[Ankamius]

I'd claim credit except I wasn't here yet

So you get to blame LUV instead