The Resistance #2 - 5P Game

[BuJaber]

VOTE: bujaber and Iconeum

[BuJaber]

Yup pretty much
Some variants introduce PRs and additional mechanics but in the standard game any 2 players for the first mission are fine.

[BuJaber]

Oh wait I just realized there is no voting for the mission to go or not to go here.

How does this work it seems too random there will always be doubt and at best come mission 5 you will have a 50% chance of picking right even if you play optimally, unless you get lucky and just guess the correct team on mission 2.

The way I usually play this there is a pre defined order of who is mission leader (like clockwise for example) and then they pick who they choose with them and players vote yes or no for the mission. That way you get additional info that you can actually analyze.
It also adds a 2nd albeit rare win condition for spies which is if 5 mission are refused in a row.

I just fail to see how you can determine who your fellow townies are if we just vote randomly like this.

At any moment in time as towm any 3 player mission you are not a part if you know for sure that it includes 1 or even 2 spies. How do you know which? There aren't enough missions to conftown someone. Are we just hoping we get lucky and pick all 3 towm or pick 2 spies together and have them both fail it?

[BuJaber]

Yeah but with mafia there clues, associations, night actions.

If you could just imagine with me here.

What is the motivation for scum to vote yes for any 3 way mission they are not a part of?
If it's a success would you trust everyone in the mission?
Like a 3 way mission passing means you mechanically have to pick them again anyway for the next 3 man mission. So it just seems like you either get it right or you lose.

I guess we'll just have to play to the end and maybe I can see what happens. But really this reminds me a lot of the miss list game we played where there's a lot of wifom but even less info coz nobody dies and flips.

Anyway I want you and paradox to go again with me. Only way your mission goes is if icon and irrelephant vote with you. I can't see any reason why paradox would ever vote yes for a mission he isn't in.

VOTE: math, paradox and Buj

[BuJaber]

I don't but if mission 2 fails and mission 3 2 if us go again and it fails we know for sure who is spy.


If mission 2 succeeds we win. Simple.
Your scenario only wins if you luckily guessed the team but if it fails how do you make a choice between the 3 people that went? I sure as hell wouldn't trust either of you.

[BuJaber]

If the new guy is spy he can't not fail the mission because he pretty much confirms the first 2 unless the 2 spies somehow coordinated. Because if it passes you just play it safe and pick the first 2 guys for mission 3.

So if it fails it points to new guy so you pick one old guy and another new guy for mission 3.
-If it passes you take the original 2 guys and new guy of mission 3 to mission 4. If that fails then you take the same 2 of mission 3 with the guy that never played.

-if it fails it points to old guy. So you take the other old guy with new guy mission 3 with guy that never played.

[BuJaber]

Where are you and math getting the idea that I scumread icon and townread paradox?

The point is to narrow down who could be a spy. And I don't think we can do that unless both math and paradox go again based on the scenario analysis I described above.

[BuJaber]

That's why they have to go again though

If they didn't we won't know which one of them is the spy if one of them is.
We leave them untested again and that doubt will always be on your mind.
In the way I am proposing every mission you are choosing the most likely people to be town based on previous missions. If other clues start to form throughout the game from the discussion obviously we factor them in but if we don't pick math / paradox here we are giving ourselves a wider margin of error.

Think what you would do if the first mission failed. You would never pick them both again. So how does it also make sense to not pick them again when the first mission failed?

Or consider this:
Is there a difference in the info gained between:
Math/irrelephant/icon - 1 sabotage among them
And
Buj/irrelephant/paradox - 1 sabotage among them.

Are you able to determine math's alignment any better in the first one than the second?

Since they passed the first mission they have to play 3 missions in a row. That is how you clear them.

[BuJaber]

What determines who is towniest now when we have pretty much nothing to go with?

Icon because he agrees with me? Math because he chose paradox got a pass but now wants to avoid him? Paradox who hasn't posted at all? Or you who has posted a lot?

We really only have gut to go on.. I really don't like how dino and you are suspicious of paradox when all he has done is passed the first mission. Dino's whole reason for picking TGP was because he would be intimidated into passing if he were spy. I'm guessing dino's plan involves going with paradox on mission 3 also based on the same principle.

So why does he want new people now? If mission 3 fails all he would have achieved is given us a 50-50 between him and TGP and 2 missions for spy. A very difficult position to win from.
Even if it succeeds that pretty much clears para/math but who are the 2 spies among the other 3?

[BuJaber]

The irony is you make me want to vote for me, icon and paradox but I don't think gut should determine this mission. That comes later when you need to decide who is lying when people inevitable start accusing each other of sabotaging.

[BuJaber]

The point is gut at mission 5 is significantly more informed than gut at 2.

There are literally only 2 good scenarios for town on mission 2. Two sabotages or 0 sabotages.

In the scenario you describe yes I would look really bad but how will the spy among math/paradox win in that case if they faked a pass on mission 3? Mission 4 you pick them again. If it fails it likely points to math/paradox. Because what are the odds that the new guy in mission 2 and the new guy in mission 4 are the spies?
For mission 5 you then go with your gut and pick the town from math/paradox and go with your gut with regards to which 2 /3 new guys should go. You have a lot more information to go on there so your gut read would be stronger.

Or town wins if math/paradox are town and pick town on mission 2/mission 4.

If they fail mission 3 that's a lot more interesting but actually a lot easier to solve because you either have 2 spies communicating on mission 2 or you confirm that 2/ 3 are town.

But that is all irrelevant now because math is scum here. From math pov the only thing that is 100% wrong is for him not to go on the mission.

So why is he happy with this team?

Either icon is his partner
Or he threw shade in his partner paradox and now purposefully avoiding putting both scum in mission 2.

Based on his play I kinda doubt irrelephant is his partner. Doesn't make sense to not stick with his first choice for team. And they're too buddy-buddy.

So irrelephant would you agree to me/you/tgp or do you prefer me/you/icon?

[BuJaber]

Even if that were true, I am fundamentally disagreeing with your strategy.

I absoluty agree that double sabotage or double fail is awesome for town.
BUT you are inflating the chances of us winning based on that. You have to multiply the % of winning if 2 spies go on mission 2 by the % of actually picking the correct 2 scum.

My approach is less risky and more consistent. I can honestly say I've played resistance probably more than a hundred maybe 200 times. Unfortunately my board game group have moved on to other games and we never really gave the variants and complex roles a chance except for one or two.

Anyway point is I think the low risk strategy is much more successful overall.

Also you supposedly wanting to put both spies in the mission still does't explain why you are not putting yourself in there.

[BuJaber]

I absoluty agree that double sabotage or double fail is awesome for town.

Double sabotage or double pass*

[BuJaber]

sounds good!

VOTE: Mathdino, Irrelephant, Bujaber

That's not what he proposed lol.

Not that I agree with either.

But what was wrong with that sentence?

And I think my case on you is a little more complex than you make it sound. Yes you probably do believe what you say but you might be saying it to imitate your town game. I haven't had the pleasure of seeing your scum game yet I don't think but you strike me as someone who pushes the same game-solving strategy spiel you do as town.
But your votes don't seem to be consistent with neither your strategy nor mine so I think it's anti-town.
You thought tgp was scum yet you didn't put him in your first vote today. And then you didn't put yourself in the mission when if you're town you could do that and still put 2 spies with you.

Let's focus on reasoning behind reads that's harder to fake as scum. Between icon/tgp who do you think is most likely spy and why.

[BuJaber]

i get the sense that i'm gonna have to explain like every single thing i do lol

read between the linessss

Nah I gotchu.

You thought tgp was scum yet you didn't put him in your first vote today.

False. 42

And then you didn't put yourself in the mission when if you're town you could do that and still put 2 spies with you.

I mean anyone who's saying "let's make a team that has two scum" is never going to include themselves in their suggested team? It's the obvious converse to how anyone who says "let's make a team with no scum" has to include themselves.

This doesn't even need to say anything about reads, just clearing up these points for BuJ

Those points were meant for dino, he was last person to talk when I posted those. Sorry for the confusion.

2 things in response to you running the numbers:

A) like dino, you are not factoring in the odds of choosing 2 scum correctly after only one mission. And then the odds of them actually putting 2 sabotages/2 clears. 2 spies going in is very similar to the classic prisoner's dilemma. You may very well choose both scum for mission 2 and STILL end up with only 1 sabotage.

B) The actual process involved in trying to identify both spies now and after mission 4 is the same except that after mission 4 you have more to go on.
The difference is in the consequences. At mission 5 you get it wrong you lose or you insta win. At mission 2 you will be forced to question who to vote for at every following mission with no clear way of confirming anybody's alignment.

-Icon I wasn't the one scumreading tgp. I was just wondering if he makes sense as math's partner or if you do. Now I'm thinking it's just irrelephant.


VOTE: Buj, Icon, Paradox VOTE:

If it passes game over.

[BuJaber]

Eww
VOTE: buj, Icon and paradox

[BuJaber]

A) sorry I missed this post earlier. I only read the "ran the numbers" spoiler and that's what I was responding to.
3/10 to pick them.. what are the odds they only put 1 sabotage? Assuming equal chance that's 2/4 possible outcomes so it's actually only 1.5/10 to get the outcome you and math want. That is better than the 1/10 you are correct but considering that my position has been to choose math/paradox a 2nd time this is irrelevant. My opinion was that without additional info you have to pick them again regardless of how you read them.

B) I feel like I have. That was the point of my posts where I consider the different scenarios. I laid out how my strategy deals with each mission and in comparison how much your strategy relies on guess work at every turn. The problem is you can't seem to get it.

[BuJaber]

Your last sentence is a scumslip.

Lol I'd like to hear the explanation for this one

[BuJaber]

I changed my vote because you and dino are refusing to allow tgp and dino to go again. Points to you being scum so now I have an actual reason to suspect you two that didn't exist before so I am choosing a mission that I suspect is all town.

I will try to go over every single possible outcome in both strategies in a big incoming post sometime today. But for now think of this: your core mistake is assuming that there is a higher chance of choosing 2 scum outside of tgl/paradox than it is with them. The two teams are the same in that regard. The difference is by repeating tgp/paradox you are making it easier to predict who failed missions later because you are using the same 2 people until they fail a mission then you change them.

[BuJaber]

[Aiiiiiight let's do this
Spoilerooney:

Spoiler: Text Wall

TGP / Dino went on mission 1 it passed. Considering we are playing a forum version that doesn't force a mission leader to go on a particular mission. Neither math nor paradox were forced to go. Math purposefully chose TGP and TGP purposefully agreed. It is therefore highly unlikely to me that both are scum because it is insanely risky for scum to do it especially considering a lot of players like me would pick them again mission 2.

BUT even if they are both scum then my plan is proposing picking them 3 times in a row if mission 2 also passes which means they will somehow have to coordinate all 3 missions to avoid a double sabotage which makes it the easiest possibility to sort out later.

So either math is spy or tgp is spy or neither.

Mission 2 math/TGP/ X goes.
It passes:
2 points for town. Almost guarantees that math/TGP are not spies because this would be the time to put a sabotage to shade 2 people at once. Also because given that they would have passed 2 missions mission 3 they will obviously go again where they will be forced to put a fail. Better to put a fail in 3 way mission as that is 1/3 that you are spy instead of 2 way where it's 1/2.
EXCEPTION here: math / x are both spy, TGP / x are both spy. Easy. 1) they may drop clues that they coordinated. 2) mission 3 you will avoid x anyway so you'll know for sure if one of tgp/dino are scum in mission 3 if they put fail.
Mission 3: TGP / Dino again. It passes town wins.
It fails: guaranteed one scum among them.
Mission 4: TGP OR Dino (for this example let's go with dino) goes with the 2 players that never played. (Call em y and z). Passes? Town wins.
If it fails either:
X and dino are spies. Focus on mission 2. Did they coordinate? Who picked the mission 2 team first (x or dino or tgp) etc.
Dino and y are spies. Same but focus on mission 4
Dino and z are spies. Same but focus on mission 4.
TGP and y are spies. Focus on TGP's reactions before mission 4.
TGP and z are spies. Focus on TGP's reactions before mission 4.

That is it. 5 possibilities to analyze for mission 5. And 2 chances of winning outright without playing mission 5. If we chose TGP for mission 4 same but switch the names.

Let's go over if mission 2 fails:
Math / TGP / x go on mission 2 and it fails. 1 spy or 2 guaranteed.

Mission 3:
(Math or TGP .. let's assume math) go with x. Pass means TGP is highly likely to be scum because scum math or scum x just sacrificed a 2 point advantage. And it also means that math is highly likely to be town because of how rarely it is that both spies passed mission 1.
So mission 4 you pick math, y and z. Pass is a win. If it fails y or z is spy:
Y with TGP.
Y with x.
Z with TGP.
Z with x.
25% chance to win mission 5 if choosing randomly.

Mission 3 fails clears very likely clears TGP. Math is also more likely to be scum because of fail in mission 2 and 3. So you pick TGP with x and one of y/z in mission 4. Fail is loss. Pass is a win because all 3 are cleared so you pick them again.

So by pure analysis of mission results you can actually arrive at decent conclusions. When you add analysis of posts throughout the game you can make a pretty informed decision.

I'll do your scenario next. This is taking a long time.

[BuJaber]

Oh crap now the bb code I wanted.. which one is spoiler box?

I fixed it. -Brass

[BuJaber]

Your version (one of math/tgp only in mission 2 instead of both. Let's assume math for this example)

Spoiler: Clicky

Math/x / y go on mission 2. If it passes. 2 scum in mission (with less likelihood of math being scum because he is more likely to put sabotage here as he has taken a leader position from start)or x is spy or y is spy OR all are town.

Mission 3 one of x/y let's say x for this example + math - if it passes it's a win.
If it fails x is scum. We need to check if TGP is his partner
Or if it's y or if it's x. But we cannot check because it's only 5 players and if we put math in and exclude x here we are still forced to put 2 out of those 3 together. If it fails how do we know which one?
But we don't have to give up we can reasonably take the chance that y is town because 2 scum in mission 2 and no fails is rare. So Math + y + TGP to check TGP. If it fails mission 5 is Math + y + z.

Mission 2 again but this time it fails. Could be 2 spies or 1 spy. TGP is more likely to be town just a little bit because if it's only 1 spy math is the most likely.
So mission 3 let's say we go TGP + z. If it passes we have to assume they are clear because there are too many possibities of scumteams if they are not. Mission 4 you would go TGP + z + x. If it fails x is spy so mission 5 you finish it with TGP + z + y.
If mission 3 fails then TGP is most likely spy so math is most likely clear. You go math + y + z. If it fails spies wins. If it passes you repeat them.

With your proposed team we have fewer chances for 'test' missions. You have to do the analysis up front with less info to go on.

That is why barring any insight/gut feeling you get from prolonged mission 2 discussion, once you have 2 people passing the first mission you have to repeat them to maximize the potential info gained from the limited number of mission we actually have.

[BuJaber]

I thought I voted back too
VOTE: buj / math / tgp

[BuJaber]

Probably TGP

[BuJaber]

this is actually a farce lol

what the fuck are you guys townreading about paradox i can't even

i literally designed that first mission so it would be a pass regardless of paradox's alignment

why would i succeed the first mission only to 1v1 paradox and refuse to let him on future missions anyway

scum-me with this strategy just fails the first mission knowing i was gonna 1v1 the other member of the first mission anyway

What does this mean?

There's nothing to go on wrt TGP. Why do you insist he's scum?
You know the only thing that makes me thinkTGP might be scum is your refusal to go with him on this mission like he's your buddy.

I want math/tgp/me. I might be okay with me/tgp/ico. I really wish now that ico went on mission 1 it'd make this easier.

[BuJaber]

So you would have failed the first mission where it's 50-50 but TGP is too scared to pull that off, so we should townread you and scumread him?

This is legit what you're proposing?

I accept that his inactivity could be a valid reason for scumreading him but you scumread him way before that. You went in with the idea.

Your talk of TGP passing the mission could be interpreted as you telling him to pass. Whether you wanted him to actually pass or wanted to do the opposite. Scum can use both methods.

Humor me... you want ico you and irrele now right? Who would you want for mission 3 if mission 2 fails and who would you want if it passes?

[BuJaber]

Mafia is a different game. And I don't care about your meta with him.

I explained why the optimal play is to go with him again. You have a weird bias against him in this game even though he really has no way to go. If he is scum he will be caught. I don't understand why you would take someone on a mission if you would suspect them even if they out pass.

Please answer the question about mission 3. Maybe your logic for the follow up of mission 2 is convincing.

[BuJaber]

Fine you play your way and I'll play mine.
I am humbled by my relatively low experience in mafia but in resistance I just know I'm right.

But my mission doesn't go if you don't vote for it so you're screwing up the whole strategy.

VOTE: icon, tgp, buj

[BuJaber]

Icon and TGP give this a chance.. math has ignored my step by step process of figuring out if math/tgp is 0, 1 or 2 scum. Don't go on a mission with him. Until he agrees to math/tgp/buj I don't agree to any mission he is on.

[BuJaber]

Because if mission 2 fails as the new guy I would not get chosen mission 3 and when mission 3 fails one of you gets exposed and I get cleared. The town has the tools to figure it out if we don't change up who goes every mission but instead actually play with a process that eliminates possibilities.

[BuJaber]

My strategy rarely wins before missiom 5. But it wins much more than loses at that point because of how much info is gained.

[BuJaber]

If you run the numbers with your strategy it is never better.

[BuJaber]

25% is random guess. It won't actually be 25%.

Alternative strategies are not dangerous to scum. They will put fail every time.

[BuJaber]

But see that is why.
Because mission 1 success is meaningless you can't make reads based off it.
But by repeating the mission goers you then have a relationship between mission 1 and 2. By not repeating the players mission 1 becomes meaningless for the entire game.

[BuJaber]

Irrelepuant is right yes. Because even if they are scum together it is really difficult to coordinate 3 missions in a row.

But as far as the point about mission 1 no.
You can use mission 1 if you repeat the same players. OTHERWISE it's meaningless. Trying to read math /tgp right now based on mission 1 is meaningless and we can't form a mission 2 team based on that.
But after mission 2 we can absolutely make reasonable assumptions based on results. For example if mission 2 passes tgp/math are almost guaranteed to be on the same team. Either two townies or 2 scum. Because they have no reason to fear putting a fail in mission 2 and it would be a huge gamble on being able to fail 3 missions in a row after that. (Willingly not sabotaging the first 2 missions as spy is suicide 9 out of ten times.)

[BuJaber]

It is from icon's pov

From yours it doesn't matter who goes with you/tgp. Also from tgp's pov.

I literally voted for 2 out 4 of tgp's proposals and nobody voted with me.

Can we please do me/math/tgp? This should be obvious to everyone now it's the best way to catch spies before endgame. And accepting a mission you are not in in a 5 player is a spyclaim. There is no leap of faith here if you are town any 3 man mission you are not in has a spy or two guaranteed. I don't know if you just derped or if this is a slip.

VOTE: math, me, tgp

[BuJaber]

I offered icon/irrelephant/me and icon/tgp/me but no takers so I went back to my objectively better team of me/math/tgp.

[BuJaber]

what
why did you surrender
tbh you could have still won this game

No because that would be the dumbest decision by icon/math to include me or irrelephant for mission 3 and I would never stop teasing them for it.

Imo irrelephant shouldn't have been scared to vote for me/icon day 1. And also should not have stopped arguing with me once he started (or not argued in the first place).


But also I was arguing my strategy that I follow when I am town and the first mission is a pass. I have no idea why you guys can't see that it is literally the least-risky path to a town win. I was basically betting my scum wincon on the fact that you guys will make a 50-50 mistake on mission 5. I practically game threw by giving you the winning strategy.

Was a fun game

[BuJaber]

wowwwww that was rough. Honestly, the biggest problem I had was not being able to lean on the board game format of a leader. When everyone gets to vote for anything, it's much easier to read votes as math did. I played towny well, I thought, but lesson learned on keeping closer track of my own votes (also on bussing my partner too hard).

Great game math, TGP, Ico, you all did well. BuJ, I submit that you played a better game than I. I had fun in the short amount of time we had, but wow do I have a lot to improve on before playing another round.

Honestly I don't think you played badly. It was just the vote day 1. Not sure why you didn't guarantee me going mission 1 when you were in the best position to do so.

[BuJaber]

I am a firm believer that if scum have a chance to go on mission 1 without drawing too much attention they should every time. Whether or not they sabotage it depends on a lot of things including what their game plan is for the rest of the game but they should always try to be on the first mission.

[BuJaber]

All my strategy talk applies strictly to 5 player resistance.

Larger games these points may or may not apply.