[SETUP] Barely Informed Minority

[callforjudgement]

If the scum simply don't read their role PMs and assume they drew town, then they have an 83.5% chance of victory on the subsequent random lynches (as nobody can scumhunt under those circumstances).

With the amount of benefit that the scum get being so low, this is probably the correct strategy, which implies that the setup, in addition to being scumsided, isn't likely to be much fun to actually play.

[callforjudgement]

If you don't know you're scum and play as though you're town, then your scumplay and townplay should be identical. It's not just associatives, you can't be scumread directly either. So town's lynch accuracy is reduced to random.

It's a bad idea in 99% of setups (at least partly because you need to make the nightkill!); you can normally get more of an advantage as scum by trying to steer the lynch onto townies without the other townies realising what you're doing. But in a setup where random play is this scumsided, and the advantage you get from your scum role PM is so low, it's not worth trying to give town a chance to win.