Open 724 - Pick Your Power X/Y [Endgame]
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i picked 2 not because i actually wanted a power role but because i wanted to fuck over scum
i see that did not work unless janitor is scum
anyway, every game, someone asks "what if scum WIFOM'd the draft???"
and every game, it turns out that no, scum actually does want power roles, they did not WIFOM the draft and pick the same numbers
the only person in this game i think would do that is A50
so anyway
saske is town by the draft imo
scum possibilities:
Iconeum
Janitor
the worst
{Beefster, Taly}
Lalendra
{Ausuka, Lovebird, brass}
{Almost50, mutantdevle}
Ircher (going for that guaranteed PR)
wishful thinking says hitting scum in the bottom half of the bracket will confirm other townies
VOTE: Beefster
Edit: when i started typing this post i was the first one here
so jinx guys- Mathdino
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to be clear, my intent was to be far enough down the draft that
- I would not be a target for the NK
- I would essentially be forced to be a VT or a terrible PR
i did actually try to be a PR once i saw that i was 6th on the draft though, and obv no comment on that- Mathdino
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y'all motherfuckers should've picked 2 more tbh- Mathdino
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lovebird is town
townbloc: {Mathdino, Lovebird, Saske}- Mathdino
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Night 3 Vigilante/Vengeful: people keep crumbing this, stop crumbing. vig/venge someone based on community consensus. i doubt town picked vengeful but if anyone claims vengeful, policy lynch them (this is optimal play)
1-Shot Vigilante OR 1-Shot PGO: vig someone who's either dead weight or is likely to be lynched tomorrow. luckily we have a list of "most likely to be PR" to "least likely to be PR" so just try to hit vanillas imo. doubt anyone ever picks PGO in this setup
Cop OR 1-Shot Redirector: we hypoclaim cop targets tomorrow, remember to actually act like you have an inno
Universal Backup OR Role Cop: role cop is surprisingly not terrible. rolecop people at the top of the list. look for scum picking vengeful, redirector, etc.
Neighborizer OR Fruit Vendor: i sincerely hope no one picked fruit vendor. neighborize talkative hard-to-sorts who won't get NK'd. i used to be a great neighbour but now i just get NK'd so don't neighborize me thanks- Mathdino
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my vote is now policy with extreme prejudice- Mathdino
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Masons and Monks: "OMGUS, but I don't care."
Stack the Deck: "Mathdino's posts strike me as IIOA mixed with lurkscum opportunism"
Pick Your Power X/Y: "TBH, this looks like role fishing." *claims*
yeah policy lynch this shit- Mathdino
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less fluff more analysis- Mathdino
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Konnichiwa SIMYK! I will RESPECT you by REMMEMBERING not to call you SASKE (but WOW hes so hot.·´¯`(>▂<)´¯`·.)
Your PERESONAL belief is FINE but my vote on BEEFSTER is PERSONNEL, KID!
Do you have RESAONS to be voting someone ALMOST 50 like that??? To ME this doesnt make SENSE but idk how RANDOM your vote is (*≧m≦*)- Mathdino
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I SUPOSE he could be putting WINE in front of ALL OF US but is a50 the one WHOMST deserves eerly wagons?? ಠ~ಠ
pedit: Wow that's very INTELIGENT of you!! ôヮô
BUT doesnt beef seem like a BAD WAGON for scum to join? ༼´◓ɷ◔`༽- Mathdino
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welcome to pick your power x/y
the draft is Serious Business for people who've played or meta'd this setup before
which part aren't you getting- Mathdino
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I played in 579 way back when. This was when I got copcleared and then misvigged for correctly figuring out all the PRs as town.
I recommend reading the scum threads more than the actual games. 701 has a particularly interesting scum thread.
Tbh I thought 2 would've been picked more based on the previous draft data but w/e- Mathdino
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SIMYK can you familiarise yourself with Beefster's scum meta pls
specifically Masons & Monks, Stack the Deck, and Clownspiracy (in which he literally claimed scum in a neighbourhood)- Mathdino
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In post 2797, Beefster wrote:VOTE: Not_Mafia
VOTE: Mathdino
VOTE: Momrangal
VOTE: the worst
VOTE: InfernoBrafin
VOTE: Beefster
Fuck this game. I give up.
I'll throw and self-vote.this was in mylo
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SIMYK has good reads along with a powerful, respectful, and unwavering voice- Mathdino
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i mean if beefster is scum he probably legitimately didn't get the jailkeeper/tracker
i doubt he'd lie about that- Mathdino
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can confirm, bad idea A50- Mathdino
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you guys realise most of my setup spec is done from the armchair
pick your power x/y is a weird setup to figure out but once you get the hang of it, there really aren't all that many moving parts- Mathdino
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Pick Your Power X/Y Except The Mod Chooses Who The Mafia Are
(Not An Art Project)- Mathdino
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are we talking about NSG's Mini Normal 1996: Floral Shitstorm
or drealmerz's game- Mathdino
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interestingly, FMPOV, while everyone would've had a 3/13 (or 23.1%) chance of being scum
due to the draft ruling out a bunch of scumteams, each of the singletons (this includes janitor FMPOV) actually has a 26.2% chance of being scum
the probability of someone in a duplet being scum is 21.9%
the probability of one of the triplets being scum is only 18.5%
scum is straight up more likely to be in the top half than the bottom half in this setup, and i'm guessing i can prove it using past results
so the risk early on is lynching potential PRs- Mathdino
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VOTE: The Janitor- Mathdino
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how is anything that you've posted useful to the gamestate then- Mathdino
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i have 5 reads already
you don't get to complain about the fluff and then not post useful things my dude
telling me my reasons for townreading SIMYK are shaky (oh but you're townreading her anyway never mind!) don't really do anything and SIMYK already made that point about herself
in fact the general sentiment of "oh well that's all a load of WIFOM" is just bad and in my experience comes from scum more than random
anyone who was there for team mafia in which over 70% of the scum could've been lynched before RVS just based on pre-game information, knows what i'm talking about- Mathdino
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SIMYK is an alt yeah
so is the janitor
janitor the problem is that you seem more focused right now on tearing down information than building it
the point of early game is to go from low information to high information
i literally provided calculations proving that in this setup, there are people who are more likely to be scum
we have information, both from the draft and from 5 pages of content
but instead of commenting on it you've just questioned reasoning that i made in my first post
which i did specifically to produce more information.- Mathdino
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finally what?In post 122, Almost50 wrote:@Dino: FINALLY! But I think we should start with the lowest single # (i.e. Iconeum) and move from there.
from my perspective janitor is effectively a single, and if you're townreading me you should also be able to see it FMPOV
so i would prefer to lynch the janitor rn- Mathdino
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wait a second are you fucking with meIn post 124, Mathdino wrote:
finally what?In post 122, Almost50 wrote:@Dino: FINALLY! But I think we should start with the lowest single # (i.e. Iconeum) and move from there.
from my perspective janitor is effectively a single, and if you're townreading me you should also be able to see it FMPOV
so i would prefer to lynch the janitor rn
are you literally suggesting lynching a guaranteed power role- Mathdino
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guys it doesn't make any sense for beefster to be lying
he'd just get fucked in massclaim
i doubt scum-him gets jailkeeper and thinks "oh boy lemme just pretend to be a VT instead of using my claim as a get out of jail free card later"
beefster is almost certainly vanilla
wouldn't mind if he ate vig tbh
Edit: you're in luck because lovebird is town- Mathdino
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then you'd get fucked in massclaim when it turns out there are 0 tracker/jailkeepers above you...
this is pretty simple shit guys...- Mathdino
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great the A50 i know is back
your post is half horse-shit and half "stuff i was just about to say"
gonna break it down
i disagree with this, i think scum usually goes for 2 lower numbers and 1 larger one (to get a "guaranteed" singleton)In post 139, Almost50 wrote:Scum would have probably picked lower numbers (3 different ones).
honestly scum just wants a couple thingsIn post 139, Almost50 wrote:But -of course- scum would not want to appear so obvious, so while they will try to be at the top of the draft priority they want to (a) obscure it, and (b) avoid having town picking the same number(s). So..
One of Beefster/Taly is likely scum because I think at least one of the top 3 suspects is just a townie who tried to fuck with the Mafia plan
- get as many power roles as possible
- fuck over town's ability to beat them in the draft
that's why the 1-2 punch is so effective -- one scum bombs town with the 1, while the other either takes a likely PR with 2 or bombs another townie
that said, i literally AM the townie that tried to fuck with the mafia plan. no one else has claimed they did so. TW chose basically randomly, and idk janitor/iconeum's logic. i explicitly didn't want a PR and figured 1 townie and 1 scum would choose 2 based on previous game data.
this is a good representation of my logic on SIMYK (don't call her Saske she doesn't like it)In post 139, Almost50 wrote:I would agree Saske is most likely town based on that strange pick (who the hell picks 413 unless (a) they wanted to make sure they remained powerless, or (b) expected nobody to pick a certain role and wanted to go for that (which is still farfetched because while the pick guarantees nobody else would have picked the same number it also guarantees she will come after everyone who picked a unique number)
that said i think ircher is very much in the running
11 is low enough to beat crazy high picks (there's usually 1 or 2 of those in this setup) and high enough to be a likely singleton
really dashing my hopes of getting through an open game without more than one person softclaiming (or worse) on D1 but okIn post 139, Almost50 wrote:FTR, Mathdino should have been tied with The Janitor, but I decided he is likely town because of my role (he is above me in the draft, and I think I know what he would pick/have his team pick if he was scum), and that's all I am willing to say for now.
iconeum can be scum based on this page alone
but i'd still prefer to lynch the janitor- Mathdino
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A50 was playing solidly in his scum meta until basically his last wallpost
i'm waffling on A50
i don't like iconeum but i'm very reluctant to go icon today because
- guaranteed PR vs unlikely PR
- A50 putting icon first before janitor is weird to me, and i feel like scum-him sheeps me essentially where he did
need more data basically- Mathdino
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the way he dances around your questions is NAI
janitor is obviously an alt lol- Mathdino
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@Ausuka: i feel like i've seen that line before
@Iconeum: It doesn't make it easier for scum to get PRs if one scum picks 2 (and if another townie picks 2). I picked the number I most thought scum would pick.
@165: PRs are NAI in this setup. My scumdar/PRdar mixup doesn't count here. This is actually one of few setups where I actively PR hunt as town in order to gamebreak.
@A50: No, it's just that you've made just one townish post so far. I'm paranoid of everyone and then I start crossing names off lists (or gradually fade names off lists). You're also mathematically less likely to be scum so w/e.
But yeah I'm not particularly paranoid of scum-you. But you have been posting within your scum meta. Still early, things may change.
Iconeum seems townish enough I guess. I agree that it's self-resolving.
We should lynch the Janitor. The Janitor is likely the low-number scum.- Mathdino
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@Janitor: quit the bs
your posts have not been useful and do not demonstrate a town mindset
i have obviously evolved my reads since my literal first post, you're harping on me trying to create information out of what i had available to me at the time
RVS is great and all but it's stupid when you have information available already
also your slot ALWAYS had higher scum equity to me. i picked 2 because i thought scum would pick it.
you picked 2. and i'm townreading iconeum and TW more than you, soooooooOOOOOO...- Mathdino
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wait okay quick thing, janitor
are you purposefully trying to play with a different playstyle/speaking-style from your main? (so you don't get identified)
i'm not hunting for your main to be clear- Mathdino
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why do you keep assuming this alt has never played with you before- Mathdino
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A50 it's probably not who you think it is?
also i maybe know who janitor is too now? doesn't matter but lol
was trying to figure out if what i was scumreading was alt awkwardness, i.e. trying out a different style and looking horrible/scummy for it
back to our usual program though- Mathdino
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seriously
what has mutant done that's particularly townish- Mathdino
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Town: Lovebird, TW
Probtown: Beefster, SIMYK
Unlikely scum by draft: Ausuka, brassherald, Taly
Unlikely scum in general: Iconeum
To sort: Ircher, Lalendra
Probscum: Janitor, one of {A50, mutant}- Mathdino
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A50, mutant behaving this way is not a towntell for him- Mathdino
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wait did you just try to pull one wrong read i had (an example of me getting pocketed) as evidence that my scumread on one of two people is stupid- Mathdino
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your scumgame is not exclusively "i have a plan for how to deal with every player"
i don't know what you're asking me to see- Mathdino
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...i never asked you to?
i haven't been advocating for D1 lynching you lol
if you're scum you're not exactly difficult to lynch later on
idk what your deal is
also why no interest in the 4s and 5s?- Mathdino
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fuck off, manIn post 299, Almost50 wrote:
That would be because you're not reading what I'm typing, perhaps?In post 298, Mathdino wrote:also why no interest in the 4s and 5s?
you know as well as i do that scum is not literally {1, 2, 3}
why is iconeum MORE likely to be scum than TW? why lynch in increasing order?
and since we know scum is not {1, 2, 3}, that confirms someone as scum outside that group. going by your logic, that would heavily implicate a 4 or 5.
your theory at its most basic makes sense -- there's scum in the low numbers. obviously.
but you don't seem to be acting in a way that's actually in line with you having thought through your draft-based setup spec.- Mathdino
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i'm not invested enough in no longer threatening him with a policy lynch
to actually defend the fact that i'm slightly townreading him- Mathdino
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that they're a great motivation to stop people from
- making shit votes with 0 reasoning
- self-voting in lylo?- Mathdino
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have you been shot by a vigilante in this setup after getting cop cleared, jailkept, neighborized, and roleblocked?
no?
towns are stupid, i don't trust them
i will setup spec all i damn well please- Mathdino
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i don't even know what to say to players like you
on page fucking 1 and 2, in which half the players hadn't posted yet, yes i'm going to focus on the information i have available to me
my reads are clearly independent of my setup spec, which only INFORMS my reads
you don't know the meaning of WIFOM. scum does not send in draft numbers in this setup to fake town out, they send it to rob town of PRs and get good PRs when possible
so talk to me in specifics instead of trashing everything i have to say
do you think 2 scum would pick the same number to fake out town? if so, who in this setup would do so? i already discussed this possibility
do you think scum would pick all high numbers, essentially guaranteeing town gets the cop?
do you think scum would pick {1, 2, 3}?- Mathdino
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"I townread SIMYK but their draft number would be pro-scum"In post 322, Ircher wrote:I townread Saske for their reads, not the draft. I feel that picking a high number helps ensure you don’t conflict with someone else, so I wouldn’t rule out Saske scum.
nothing means anything, gg
...oh wait never mind you CAN game this setup and it's been done in the past
because everyone knows they're an alt? do you think secret alts all go and admit that they're alts?In post 324, Ircher wrote:How do you know SIMYK is an alt when they keep denying it?
why do you care?
scum is {Janitor, Ircher, {mutant, A50}}- Mathdino
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1. i don't think your question is in good faith so i'm not answering thatIn post 325, Ircher wrote:
1. How is Lovebird town?In post 133, Mathdino wrote:guys it doesn't make any sense for beefster to be lying
he'd just get fucked in massclaim
i doubt scum-him gets jailkeeper and thinks "oh boy lemme just pretend to be a VT instead of using my claim as a get out of jail free card later"
beefster is almost certainly vanilla
wouldn't mind if he ate vig tbh
Edit: you're in luck because lovebird is town
2. Didn’t you want to PL Beefster earlier?
2. how is that inconsistent with what i'm saying here
"beefster isn't lying" doesn't mean "beefster is town"
it just means beefster is probably actually vanilla and didn't get his tracker/jailkeeper pick- Mathdino
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VOTE: Ircher- Mathdino
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god don't you guys love it when players catch up and 80% of their posts are nullifying other people's posts and calling everything NAI
instead of actually creating information- Mathdino
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then that's your fault, not mine
because i've been doing loads of genuine scumhunting, and there's always those 2 or 3 players that laser focus on my setup spec for whatever reason
my entire thing on this site is breaking setups, i've broken 3 opens before
put your money where your mouth is -- if you want people to talk more about reads and less about setup, do it yourself- Mathdino
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ircher, your scumread on me is not my fault
you're literally saying "it's hard to follow math's reads, therefore he's scum"
in what goddamn universe is "hard to follow" a scumtell
it sounds like you just want to remove me to make it easier for you to play the game the way you want to- Mathdino
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i really don't understand why people catch up the way they do nowadays
where they're like "oh boy i missed 5 pages, guess i'll fill ANOTHER page ripping apart every 5th post"
and then another person comes along like "oh boy looks like i missed 6 pages, i'll fill YET ANOTHER page ripping apart the last 6 pages!"
and then another person comes along...
and on top of that, the majority of the catchups are just like "lol people aren't posting good content, stop making it harder for me to catch up"
hypocrites
chronological catchups are bad and demotivational both for the player and for everyone else to have to watch, people should stop trying to be mastina- Mathdino
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just read the game, post your reads, and then go back and quote the posts that support where you want to go with the game
it doesn't help anyone to just quote posts and say "yo this sucks" when those posts were made 12 pages ago and aren't relevant anymore
like in the span of your catchup you went from voting me because you didn't like my setup spec (without doing the research to find that i do that literally every game (although i haven't done it as scum yet i don't think?))
to backing off completely after being criticised for it
like what was thepointof all of that
at least fluffposters are honest about their posts contributing nothing- Mathdino
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(and this is not me condoning fluffposting -- please stop filling the thread in lieu of doing anything else, i want to throw my computer out a window whenever i see people's catchups taking a full page)
yo ausuka if you're here toss me a reads list- Mathdino
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i want to die- Mathdino
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why did you make this post?In post 375, the worst wrote:In post 87, the worst wrote:
This just hit me like a brickIn post 11, Mathdino wrote:anyway, every game, someone asks "what if scum WIFOM'd the draft???"
and every game, it turns out that no, scum actually does want power roles, they did not WIFOM the draft and pick the same numbers
the only person in this game i think would do that is A50
Also assume Saske is town by draft because scum would never let someone pick such a high number?
^^^^ this was the blonde momentIn post 90, the worst wrote:Can't be this adorable and smart too sadly
like who were you clarifying to?- Mathdino
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i could really use "it's basically lylo on D1 already" brassherald much more than "comment on every post" brassherald
i know you don't do reads lists but do you have sets of people you think scum are in yet?
also don't really feel like explaining the lovebird thing because it's currently a topic that two other people are talking about between themselves
also i like TW less each time he brings up his mistake :/ - Mathdino
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