Open 724 - Pick Your Power X/Y [Endgame]

[Taly]

It's too late at night for me to deal with this. I'm gone. I'll reply more in depth tomorrow if I have the time because I've been very busy lately and it's hindered my enthusiasm for this at the moment, and I'm working to not let that happen.

Mathdino

, I stated my initial reasoning for why I believe Ircher is town and elaborated on that, and I WANTED people to explain their reads in depth so we could gain a stronger sense of each other's perspective and potentially see things to help ourselves navigate through the game.

I think you've completely misinterpreted my points, and I may have misinterpreted yours, and I need to take my mind out of this so I can think clearly.

Yes, there is a reason to spoiler your posts, because it could be easier for someone to read through in small chunks versus huge walls with no defined labels on what's what.

And if you think my ISO's are painful, then :shrug: ....I'll rally some of my games and let you look through them, but I don't think meta is a completely accurate way to read many people, and if I had to meta myself; I'd say there's very little surface-level different between town-me and scum-me.

Regardless, I think meta-reads are usually shit, and I've said that as all alignments at some point

; and I didn't like your performance in the game where YOU were scum, but that's not a GOOD, VIABLE resource to meta-read you on.

How do you deduce percentages of someone being scum FROM RANDOMIZED NUMBERS?

i just wanna quote/pagebottom this for emphasis on hilarity:

taly seems to think that the draft numbers are randomized

I'm sorry, can you mindread people and why they'd pick numbers they did for the draft?

Please, stop degrading and mocking my insights.

~~~

Saske, Almost50, the worst;

I'll get to you guys soon enough.

[SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis]

Saske, Almost50, the worst; I'll get to you guys soon enough.

It is OKAY (((o(*ﾟ▽ﾟ*)o)))

The IMPORTANT thing is that you are WILLING to take your mind off of this, UNWIND, and be an adult about the situation. I probably will be getting back to you later though I have to work on some FINAL projects for school (oT-T)尸

[Mathdino]

to my great disappointment, i just came up for air from the metadive and i think taly might have to be town

[Mathdino]

- The current paragon winner won due to being the best general metadiver on this site in history.
I don't claim success rates close to that. I've been specifically working to get better at the meta side of play over the past few months (rolling town a lot helps with that).
Knowing how someone thinks is the single best advantage you can have over them when they're scum.

- Did you seriously just ask me whether I can read people for why they picked the numbers they did?
Can you mindread people and why they'd make the votes they did?
Can you mindread people and why they'd choose the roles they did?
Can you mindread people and why they'd make the posts they did?

Everything is readable if you have the tools to do so. I have data. And yes, there are some players in this game that I CAN read based off the numbers they picked. Hell, I'll fully admit I planned out my opening. I picked 2 because I expected it to fuck over scum (because scum tends to pick 2 in this setup with probability greater than random). But beyond that, I was planning on telling everyone that in my first post.

But I guess all that info is useless, yeah?

[yessiree]

VC 1.7

With 14 alive, it takes 8 to lynch

The Janitor (3) -

Iconeum, Beefster, Ircher

Ircher (3) -

SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis, Mathdino, mutantdevle,

Ausuka (2) -

Lovebird, brassherald

mutantdevle (1) -

the worst

Almost50 (1) -

Almost50

Not voting

- Lalendra, The Janitor, Ausuka, Taly

Day 1 ends in (expired on 2018-05-15 20:00:00)

[Mathdino]

Janwagon: Icon null-town, Beefster probtown, Ircher likely scum onwagon.
Did Ircher jump on the wagon after I started putting heat on the wagon?

Ircherwagon: Likely scum onwagon is mutant.

Ausukawagon: I'm townreading this. Interested in further development.

mutantvote: Duck is probtown.

A50self-vote: What the fuck, dude.

Not Voting: The only one not voting that I'm actually townreading is Taly. Lalendra's ISO goes so far beyond "lynchbaity Lalendra" into the realm of "I am actively not doing anything this game".

[Almost50]

My bright moment: Iconeum+the worst+Lalendra for the scum team.

VOTE: Iconeum

[Almost50]

@Math: I've decided I want to fight you over our reads in this game, and it's going to be in a "mine is bigger than yours" manner (I'm talking about egos, you fluffy yellow quack head)

[Mathdino]

ITT: people give me shit by claiming that my reads are entirely based around setup spec/the draft and ignore anything outside of math

while A50 proposes a scumteam literally solely based on the draft

[Almost50]

"People are giving me shot for something -the magnificent- A50 is doing" seems like a compelling argument, tbh.

[mutantdevle]

I feel like one of Ircher and MathDino are probably scum.

Personally, I feel like 3 of the players in this game are definitely scum (but that's just me).

No, but I feel like there is specifically scum in the bracket {Ircher, MathDino}. To me, it doesn't feel like any old 1v1 that I usually simply observe. I feel somewhat confident that there's scum in this based on how each of them is playing and how they are interacting with each other. If either of these flip scum, I'm assuming the other is town.

[mutantdevle]

^while this is not intentionally a scumteam

in a very literal sense, THIS IS A SCUMCLAIM :O :O :O

I agree.

VOTE: A50

Let's do this. At least I won't be playing with "the silliest name that ever was" anymore. I had promised myself not to play in games with that person anyway, but I didn't know that was them.

Are you actually seriously attempting to game throw here? I haven't read on so I can only hope this is a reaction test or some kind of GAMBIT but if you're going to game throw like this then get the fuck out by replacing out. Throwing like this isn't necessary.

[mutantdevle]

Now which of the players before me on the draft would take that as town?

I don't think this is a question that we should be answering.

[mutantdevle]

5. 227 to 235 and 237 to 244 by mutantdevle: Aside from your two "I need to catch up posts", your first several posts deal almost exclusively with the setup and the draft and without anything to do with some kind of read one way or another. I don't necessarily consider that a good thing, and tbqh, it is actually a good way to look like town as scum. I'll have to see though if this trend continues, or if this is just part of your catch-up which you seem to be doing sequentially like I normally do. (Leaning Scum)

If you're going to consider setup spec as scummy

Then you may as well lock scum me now.


The longer I live the more setup spec I'm going to do and, with enough information, I could very well 'solve' the game rather than read it provided I can convince others of my point of view.

[mutantdevle]

8. 261 by Almost50: Overly impressed by mutant's towniness - Say what? I definitely didn't get that impression from mutant; what am I missing? (Null)

My meta and the ability to judge people on things other than their reads.

[mutantdevle]

What's with the dichotomy here? Are you saying they both can't be scum together or town together? Why?

I don't like Ircher - at all.
MathDino is different in a way I can only describe as more aggressive than usual and I don't like that either.
The way they are interacting with each other makes me conclude that they can't be scum together.

I see each individual as slightly scummy hence when they are together there is a higher concentration of scum. But they can't be scum together. Conclusion: there's a good chance there's 1 scum between them.

[Mathdino]

mutant what games are you using as a reference for my aggressiveness

as i understand we've played 2 games together:
- switch, in which i was a cop with a n0 guilty
- tit for tat

are you claiming i'm currently more aggressive than i was in tit for tat...?

[mutantdevle]

How do you deduce percentages of someone being scum FROM RANDOMIZED NUMBERS?

Because they're not fully random.

Townies will pick their numbers based on how much they're willing to risk getting the PR they want over having a PR at all.

On the other hand, scum plans their numbers with each other. The task of deducing scum by their draft numbers is to first figure out which numbers were planned and which are based on the decision an individual would make in regards to my above statement. For example, if we have someone who is known for not taking risks picking numbers 1-3, it means they are probably scum and have been made to coordinate their number with their scum team. Likewise, if we have someone who makes a lot of gambits and reaction tests picking a high number, they were probably made to pick a higher number by their scum team instead of a lower one. If we were to catch such individual, then we could also deduce that someone on their scum team asserts more dominance than they do and hence why they haven't chosen their preference.

The very fact that scum gets to coordinate their numbers means that they are most certainly not random. This gives us information that we can use but only if we identify it correctly.

[Ausuka]

Ausuka how is 429wallpostofdeath tonally?

gimme some examples from it you see from town!Ircher or scum!Ircher & explain why? (just a couple are fine)


AND FINALLY .......... does Ircher try this hard + risk this much exposure as scum? not a loaded question

I unvoted there because the post was massive and I felt like I needed to evaluate it before pushing further w/ pushing him. Ircher's posts aren't that bad but, like, he just doesn't give out the same obvtown feeling he usually does when he's town, you know?

17. 92 by Mathdino: Fake advertisement for Pick Your Power X/Y where mod chooses the mafia - I'm biased against Mathdino, and it shows. But still, people have to understand where I am coming from. You can joke around and all, that's fine. But I get the feeling you are avoiding scumhunting because you can. Like, you were very wordy the first page or 2, but then you kinda vanished only to pop in to post things that are not very helpful in advancing the game state. Is it truly as unfair of me as has been suggested to see you as doing much more setup speccing than scumhunting?

tbh, this kinda pings me. And I don't really like how his only townread rn is himself despite openly giving TRs to people in his catchup.

But I don't think I want to lynch Ircher yet because I think I can sort him with 99% accuracy later, and the way he's working through the thread and making notes is pretty towny. 432 from mutant does also ping me pretty severely as I've mentioned- when someone you're currently voting and trying to read posts content, you read it, you just don't ignore it because you think there's too much. I don't see how this is a town mindset. But I don't think this is too likely to be a bus, and that gives me pause.

UNVOTE:

Mutant, you're voting Ircher. Why won't you read his posts?

Why the plural? I'm only not reading one of them because it's blatantly too long. I started reading it and saw that he was simply quoting every other post and describing it as null. What do I gain from reading that?

How is it too long? It's simply multiple long posts, compressed into one post. There's no reason why you can't read it, and as for "he's calling everything null!!!" that is absolutely not what the post is, on any level. As to what you gain from it, you get to sort Ircher -- although if I'm right, and you're scum here, that makes a lot of sense, because you already know what Ircher's alignment, and you're only worried about perception of you, which is why you CTRL+F'd the post to search for your name, and nothing else.

77- Simyk, why do you refer to the Beefster wagon as a "thinly-veiled policy lynch"? It seems like nothing of the sort to me and I have to wonder how you came to that conclusion.

The reasons for scumreading Beefster originated from reasons that could ALTERNATIVELY be answered by "He's just BAD" so to me it's hard to SAY if what he's doing can REALLY be perceived as scummy - hence "policy lynch" (*´ω｀)o

Uhhhh... I don't really see how this is your assessment of the Beefster wagon??? How does being bad explain roleclaiming on page 1 when you think your scumread was rolefishing???

Ausuka-chan why did you UNVOTE ircher? Were his RECENT posts indicative of his TOWN meta I don't really townread them so YEAH? （・□・；）

I UNVOTED ircher because I NO LONGER feel that his posts make him CAUGHT SCUM so I would prefer some more TIME to EVALUATE him ^_^

lynch this please, this slot is either dangerously bad or scum

Part of me feels like this post never exists if Mathdino and Ircher are both town.

For the PURPOSE of the RECORD, Janitor, my INITIAL INTELLECTUAL INTUITION is that your IDENTITY is Something_Smart ╭( ･ㅂ･)و ̑̑ ＂

Oh? I thought he was fuzzylogic.

I feel like one of Ircher and MathDino are probably scum.

yeah. not because they're scumreading each other as Math says later, but because Ircher as town can't really be classified as bad town/VI. Although I'm not sure how mutant comes to the same conclusion without knowing Ircher (unless he actually does, but I thought Ircher only just returned to the site?)

let's get some ausuka critical thinking on ircher's slot, she was not lying about her read accuracy as far as i can tell

I wasn't but this Ircher takes longer to read than the other Irchers

Ircher's reasons are RIDICULOUS at best （￣へ￣）

yeah, maybe Ircher is just scum here.

hmmm forgot about beefster joining the wagon

yeah... I still think beefster is scum here. maybe beef/ircher/lalendra? does that work as a team?

Let's ruin this game because I'm playing with a bunch of nutters.

wow.... i possess NO repsonse to play like that （￣へ￣）

Let's do this. At least I won't be playing with "the silliest name that ever was" anymore. I had promised myself not to play in games with that person anyway, but I didn't know that was them.

...Do you think she's RC? She isn't.

Just, scummy way of talking. Nervousness, skittish.

except I wasn't like this. at all.

Ircher's 520 makes me think he might actually be town here; I like the readslist. but I just feel like something important is missing here with his play which makes him locktown in most of the towngames we play together.

wait is this some kind of threat

like "lol the earlier you lynch me the more likely it is town loses"

because if so

:lol::lol:

that's actually a towntell for Ircher though.

You don't fucking spoiler your reads list if you want it to affect the game.

Ircher does. It's just a way to stop it clogging up the thread and to organize the post, I think.

Also Ircher has a really weird habit of putting actual reads in null/neutral sections and it's probably best to just ignore the categories. Like here where he has a -55% read on a player and puts them in a neutral category + only has two players above null other than himself. I feel like this could legitimately be town!Ircher rn, although I am kinda waffling and want to see more from him.

[the worst]

I wanna wagon mutant or lalendra who's in?

[mutantdevle]

mutant what games are you using as a reference for my aggressiveness

as i understand we've played 2 games together:
- switch, in which i was a cop with a n0 guilty
- tit for tat

are you claiming i'm currently more aggressive than i was in tit for tat...?

Yes, I think you are. Specifically, I feel like you are aggressive in a different way. There's no denying you're an aggressive player but here you feel more hostile aggressive rather than pushy aggressive, the latter I associate as town you.

To me, you've always been a town leader. Any aggression you've had has led somewhere and has always felt like it's coming from a town agenda. In this game, you really don't feel like a town leader. You're just another person shouting into the wind. Your aggression here is far more personal and isn't really leading to anything. Right now, it's like you're just arguing back and forth with people who disagree that setup spec means anything. Sure, that's not entirely your fault. I very much disagree with anyone that says speculating about the draft numbers doesn't give us information to work with. But honestly, I'd expect town!you to look past these foolish mortals and be more intent on proving how effective it can be rather than just arguing over it. Town!you would be fully acknowledging that most of the setup spec argument comes from a difference in playstyles and know that that's not something that's just going to change by making a few frustrated posts to each other. At least, that's how my interpretation of town you would act. If you are town this game, then it's evident that we've both over glorified each other's town abilities.

Also, you're forgetting that marathon game we played together where you were scum. Knowing that I have the ability to look obviously town, you're approach to me in that game was to buddy me. I picked up on that pretty quickly and correctly identified you as scum. Even though you still won the game, you still failed to convince me you were town as scum. I suspect that based on that failure, you may have changed your scum approach to town!me to, instead of embracing how town I can be and work around it, try to discredit it. It pinged me a little when you shut down A50's notion that my first set of posts in this thread were townie because I honestly felt so townie making them. Especially since I would have considered you'd have a good idea of how I play.

Of course, these are very personal reasons I have for seeing scummy intent within you. I don't expect anyone else to understand them which is why I have no intent on pushing this any time soon. But as things are now, I think the best flip for my own reads today would either be yours or Irchers.

[Ausuka]

I wanna wagon ... lalendra

sure
VOTE: Lalendra

[the worst]

I wanna wagon ... lalendra

sure
VOTE: Lalendra

Preferred option but why are you against mutant?

VOTE: Lalendra

[mutantdevle]

How is it too long? It's simply multiple long posts, compressed into one post. There's no reason why you can't read it, and as for "he's calling everything null!!!" that is absolutely not what the post is, on any level. As to what you gain from it, you get to sort Ircher -- although if I'm right, and you're scum here, that makes a lot of sense, because you already know what Ircher's alignment, and you're only worried about perception of you, which is why you CTRL+F'd the post to search for your name, and nothing else.

I used to do the multiple long posts in 1 post thing. I stopped doing that because people complained it's hard to read. Which in hindsight is exactly the case. When you see a massively long post you get demotivated to read it whereas the same information split into several posts feels a lot easier to read.

For the null thing, the first parts of his post do just that. That's all I read before skipping over the post. I have since reread parts of the post just because I felt like it and saw it's not entirely claiming things as null, but I still haven't gained anything from what I have read and I don't expect to gain anything from reading the whole thing. Most of the lines I've read have no impact on anything what so ever. They're just as null as the things he calls null. Besides, my understanding of the posts is that they are primarily his reads. His reads mean nothing to how I read him until someone else's alignment is confirmed. Reads alone don't tell you if someone is scum with someone, it's interactions that do. That's why I've made a mental note of it as a post to come back to later. The associations will be valuable when people start flippin', until then, I have no need to read those posts fully.

As for the CTRL+F, I have a policy of addressing absolutely everything that is addressed to me. I also occasionally reply to things about me but only if there's anything worth adding. So naturally, even the posts I don't read I'm going to want to check they're not asking me anything. Not being bothered to read + wanting to know if I'm being asked anything = CTRL+F.

[Mathdino]

i can only assume you completely skimmed the entire argument i had with luca blight in tit for tat

i town lead when i'm in a playerlist that allows me to

some playerlists are weirdly anti-setup spec so i get sidetracked

like i feel like if 3 or 4 people suddenly went "yeah i'll sheep math on this" or "math is clearly the town leader" you'd be reading me differently because of how other slots treat me