Open 724 - Pick Your Power X/Y [Endgame]

[Eddie Cane]

someone gimme an answer and i'll start setup breaking and catching up

[Ausuka]

yes, as far as I can tell everything you said about the setup there was correct.

[Eddie Cane]

okay i get it this seems like a really fun setup

[SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis]

I feel like this is an oversimplification of the situation. Sure, it doesn't make much sense as either alignment, but thinking "OK, I will roleclaim on page 1 and accuse others of rolefishing so I look like a VI and apply WIFOM" makes a LOT more sense than "hey, this player voted me because of mechanics in RVS. They must be scum rolefishing! You know what I should totally do now??? Claim. That makes a lot of sense!"

Honestly I think BOTH constitute as bad play ∑(ﾟﾛﾟ〃)

NO ONE would buy that as REAL reasoning and that's why I think it's town - but at this point it is CLEAR that our differences will not be reconciled. We should rely on Mylo's catchup and then get back to this (•̀o•́)ง

And Ahiru-tan, how do you PROPOSE scum!davesaz would handle his replace-in? FROM what I BELIEVE davesaz will have to DEFEND his slot's play as coming from town, so someone as PRINCIPLED as him will probably express the SAME sentiment he JUST did and THUS it is NAI (ʃ⌣́,⌣́ƪ)

I would rather read him by how he SORTS and interacts with the gamestate, which so far I am not particularly impressed by

[SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis]

Also I YET AGAIN got sidetracked and DO NOT hvae the time to finish my ircher case.... U_U

My FINAL is in TWO HOURS and I have yet to eat anything! ( ⚆ _ ⚆ )

[SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis]

I liked his shift in the mutant read. Also think he had some interesting early townreads.

WAIT I just realized this was about DAVESAZ and not Almost50 （ΟΔΟ；；）

HOW did his read on mutant SHIFT?? Σ(-᷅_-᷄๑)

[the worst]

one sec.

[the worst]

Iso'd mutantdevle. Overuse of setup spec discussison can lead to telling scum what they need to fakeclaim or who they need to kill.
I will argue against misinformation and misuse of basically correct spec if I see it but otherwise would prefer to leave enough intact to solve later.

Hmm I read this as a scumread.
That's one point off dave but *shrug*

[SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis]

The MOST davesaz has done so far in terms of AI content is his initial readlist which even then I am HESITANT to call alignment indicative (ʃ⌣́,⌣́ƪ)

I would not have a problem if we saw more however! ^_^

[Eddie Cane]

page by page time

First round draft results:

1. Iconeum 1
   
2. the worst 3
   
3. Lalendra 5
   
4. Ircher 11
   
5. SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis 413
   
6. Mathdino 2
   
7. The Janitor 2
   
8. Beefster 4
   
9. Taly 4
   
10. Almost50 8
    
11. mutantdevle 8
    
12. Ausuka 6
    
13. Lovebird 6
    
14. brassherald 6

Deadline to send in your role picks - (expired on 2018-05-03 17:00:00)

I agree with Mathdino's post below that scum didn't CC, so max of 1 scum in {Lovebird, Ausuka}, {Beef, Taly}, {Math, Jan}, {mutant, a50}. Its like night killing "for wifom!" - retarded and not something that ever happens in practice. Not a perfect example because there are niche situations where killing for wifom is optimal but never pregame anyways so irrelevant. Basically, yes. I understand setups a lot better than most people too. This seems quite townsided but a really cool design, I'd probably tweak a couple of things to help scum (limit cop, probably limit rolecop) but overall like a solid setup and I don't think its unplayable by any means. Surprised I've never played it, I've seen people talking about it before.

Btw, I asked a friend if I should pick 6 or 7. I thought 7, but she said 6. Annoying.

Out of game!

i picked 2 not because i actually wanted a power role but because i wanted to fuck over scum

i see that did not work unless janitor is scum

anyway, every game, someone asks "what if scum WIFOM'd the draft???"
and every game, it turns out that no, scum actually does want power roles, they did not WIFOM the draft and pick the same numbers
the only person in this game i think would do that is A50

so anyway

saske is town by the draft imo

scum possibilities:
Iconeum
Janitor
the worst
{Beefster, Taly}
Lalendra
{Ausuka, Lovebird, brass}
{Almost50, mutantdevle}
Ircher (going for that guaranteed PR)

wishful thinking says hitting scum in the bottom half of the bracket will confirm other townies
VOTE: Beefster

Edit: when i started typing this post i was the first one here
so jinx guys

I don't get why Saske is town off this. Wouldn't picking a high number guarantee to beat ties, aka more likely to get a PR?

lovebird is town

townbloc: {Mathdino, Lovebird, Saske}

idgi also

i picked 2 not because i actually wanted a power role but because i wanted to fuck over scum

i see that did not work unless janitor is scum

anyway, every game, someone asks "what if scum WIFOM'd the draft???"
and every game, it turns out that no, scum actually does want power roles, they did not WIFOM the draft and pick the same numbers
the only person in this game i think would do that is A50

so anyway

saske is town by the draft imo

scum possibilities:
Iconeum
Janitor
the worst
{Beefster, Taly}
Lalendra
{Ausuka, Lovebird, brass}
{Almost50, mutantdevle}
Ircher (going for that guaranteed PR)

wishful thinking says hitting scum in the bottom half of the bracket will confirm other townies
VOTE: Beefster

Edit: when i started typing this post i was the first one here
so jinx guys

I picked tracker and came back VT.

Is that what you're looking for?

VOTE: Mathdino
TBH, this looks like role fishing.

lol

I townread this

Cop OR 1-Shot Redirector: we hypoclaim cop targets tomorrow, remember to actually act like you have an inno

Also, redirector is a scum claim.

VOTE: Iconeum

1 is actually very scummy to pick for starters. I think scum are within the lowest picked #s (1,2,3,4,5) but no 2 scums would have picked the same #.

Agreed. The worst case with 1 is you nuke any townie who picked 1 and still go first out of the round 2s and the best case is guaranteed first choice (either Cop or RB/Doctor depending how you wanna play).

Masons and Monks: "OMGUS, but I don't care."
Stack the Deck: "Mathdino's posts strike me as IIOA mixed with lurkscum opportunism"

Pick Your Power X/Y: "TBH, this looks like role fishing." *claims*

yeah policy lynch this shit

just quoting this to say hahahahaha ikr "you rolefisher! i'm vt you aren't fishing a pr from me!!!"

[Eddie Cane]

Masons and Monks: "OMGUS, but I don't care."
Stack the Deck: "Mathdino's posts strike me as IIOA mixed with lurkscum opportunism"

Pick Your Power X/Y: "TBH, this looks like role fishing." *claims*

yeah policy lynch this shit

Ya think??

[v[Beefster[/v]

Let's see if it turns to be like Masons & Monks.

Disappointed in you and Mathdinkle though. Beef's post seems really genuine. Stupid as fucking hell, but genuine.

Konnichiwa minnasan! o((*^▽^*))o

VOTE: Almost50

I PERESONALLY believe that the Beefster wagon is SILLY on principle - scum would be FOOLISH to immediately claim that they picked a slot with a ROLEBLOCKING role in it considering how IMPROTANT that is to scum ( ⚆ _ ⚆ )

We shouldn't be POLICY lynching people UNTIL we have good reason to scumread them and as far as I am COGNIZANT we only possess reason to believe that Beefster is ALIGNED WITH the TOWN ヾ(｡･ω･)ｼ

goodpost

question

does mathdino know? yes or no. you'll know what i'm talking about.

Anyone feel like spoonfeeding me why any of the setup spec p1 makes sense?

nothing better to talk about. its like how in team mafia early game was spent discussing who would pick what. it leads into natural discussion.

In my history with Beefster I have seen

- town Beefster take the time to process Math's INTENSE LOGIC EXPLOSIONS and generally correctly conclude that he's coming from the right angle
- scum Beefster not take the time to process Math's INTENSE LOGIC EXPLOSIONS and suggest he's scum for them

Actual read progression/flip flopping in Earthbound is the only transgression I can think of

So my firsr impeession of Beef is lolscum, what makes you townread him?

oh so this is the policy math's talking about

can u link these games (specifically beefster's part)?

[SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis]

does mathdino know? yes or no. you'll know what i'm talking about.

E-eh?? (O∆O)

[SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis]

I am going to assume YES for the time BEING (҂⌣̀_⌣́)

[Eddie Cane]

Scum rb overrated

Agreed. Lets the rolecop guilty you. If scum gets that slot taking Doc still confirms town doesn't have doc so they can just NK any PRs instead of RBing them (bar the watcher shot).

SIMYK can you familiarise yourself with Beefster's scum meta pls

specifically Masons & Monks, Stack the Deck, and Clownspiracy (in which he literally claimed scum in a neighbourhood)

I'll take links.

Ask Beefster himself, and I think he will tell you that he is bad at scum (he's learning the ways still though, so there's potential for him on the future).

But let's

assume (for the sake of argument)

that Beefster is town here. So? Why is a wagon on him bad? Wagons are good for getting reads, right?

You see, I don't mind your vote on me. What I do have a problem with is you throwing all your weight behind "Town!Beef" without even knowing the player that well. That feels a bit odd for my little brain to grasp.

He's probably the only player I have as town at this point, so the worst option for a wagon. That and Simyk a bit.

[the worst]

Example of town!Beef taking a measured approach to Math (reasonable read trajectory on him generally)

viewtopic.php?p=9852468#p9852468

[the worst]

Example of scum!Beef (short iso, he very literally lolhammered BG!Thor and got vigged for his troubles)
viewtopic.php?t=75747&f=51&st=0&sk=t&sd ... er_sort=Go

[the worst]

Sadly there isn't enough Beef content to have much of a strong read but current feel is that slot might be town

[SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis]

Subject: Newbie 1841: Elves! Game Over!

Honestly there was no way I was gonna let you get lynched today. I don't think softclaiming as hard as you did had much utility

Lynch is probably gonna be between the worst and Impede. What are your reads looking like nowadays?

I panicked. I don't know why. I had no reason to. I guess I was trying to flail since that statistically is town more often than not. Now I know how not to play cop in the future.

PoE leads me to believe that two of Godel, Impede, and the worst are scum. I'm pretty confident with my Derpy/Mathdino town reads, but not 100% certain. If I'm right, this is enough information to guarantee a town win.

Yes, even after you outed me, I just don't see it as scummy because of how it all went down. You realized you shouldn't have pointed it out when you asked me to claim since you forgot we lost our doctor. In retrospect it all lines up to indicate you're town. The fact that you were willing to take that risk shows that you're town.

Derpy is way too aggressive/reckless to be scum.

This seems RELATIVELY IN-LINE with what I was arguing earlier ╭( ･ㅂ･)و ̑̑ ＂

[davesaz]

Iso'd mutantdevle. Overuse of setup spec discussison can lead to telling scum what they need to fakeclaim or who they need to kill.
I will argue against misinformation and misuse of basically correct spec if I see it but otherwise would prefer to leave enough intact to solve later.

Hmm I read this as a scumread.
That's one point off dave but *shrug*

That was gently yelling at mutantdevle to lay off the heavy setup stuff.

Eddie, same goes for you, it's good for you to figure out things for yourself but bad to help scum figure out who has which pr.

[davesaz]

It is correct to say that I haven't said much. It's the beginning of a work week and I'm sneaking in these couple posts by not paying attention to a meeting.

[Mathdino]

people don't seem to realise that scum has 3 times the brain trust that any individual townie has when it comes to figuring out the setup

it's not like saying factually true things (like oh i guess we have a tracker/jailkeeper above beefster) makes scum think OH SHIT I HADNT THOUGHT OF THAT or THANKS FOR DOING THE WORK FOR US MATHDINO/EDDIE CANE/MUTANT

like, if we didn't do it, 1 scum would take a minute out of their time to do it themselves. there's probably a bookkeeper in the PT keeping track of all that unless scum is totally incompetent

so while claiming is shit, setup spec is pro-town
it takes the info that the few likely already have and disseminates it to the many

[the worst]

Subject: Newbie 1841: Elves! Game Over!

Honestly there was no way I was gonna let you get lynched today. I don't think softclaiming as hard as you did had much utility

Lynch is probably gonna be between the worst and Impede. What are your reads looking like nowadays?

I panicked. I don't know why. I had no reason to. I guess I was trying to flail since that statistically is town more often than not. Now I know how not to play cop in the future.

PoE leads me to believe that two of Godel, Impede, and the worst are scum. I'm pretty confident with my Derpy/Mathdino town reads, but not 100% certain. If I'm right, this is enough information to guarantee a town win.

Yes, even after you outed me, I just don't see it as scummy because of how it all went down. You realized you shouldn't have pointed it out when you asked me to claim since you forgot we lost our doctor. In retrospect it all lines up to indicate you're town. The fact that you were willing to take that risk shows that you're town.

Derpy is way too aggressive/reckless to be scum.

This seems RELATIVELY IN-LINE with what I was arguing earlier ╭( ･ㅂ･)و ̑̑ ＂

GTH I'd reserve to your read here.

[Eddie Cane]

interestingly, FMPOV, while everyone would've had a 3/13 (or 23.1%) chance of being scum

due to the draft ruling out a bunch of scumteams, each of the singletons (this includes janitor FMPOV) actually has a 26.2% chance of being scum

the probability of someone in a duplet being scum is 21.9%

the probability of one of the triplets being scum is only 18.5%

scum is straight up more likely to be in the top half than the bottom half in this setup, and i'm guessing i can prove it using past results

so the risk early on is lynching potential PRs

Something I hadn't thought of, neat. Too lazy to adjust my numbers but yea its probably optimal to lynch a singleton.

i disagree with this, i think scum usually goes for 2 lower numbers and 1 larger one (to get a "guaranteed" singleton)

Wait.... what? Saske is lock town for picking a large number but scum picks a large number for a guaranteed singleton?

What's objectively bad about my posts ?

I don't think a mafia player should follow a set plan or scum/townhunt in a certain way... Maybe I play differently than you but if something bothers me, why wouldn't I question it?

I'm an alt yes

Of who?

You don't need to answer but I'm meta intensive and it makes my life easier :shrug:

hi, i'm town
VOTE: Beefster

AUSUKA-CHAN!!!!!!! ヾ(｡･ω･)ｼ

It has been a while since I last espied thou!

HOWEVER with that vote you arent realy convincing me of that (⊙△⊙✿)

hi!

the vote on beefster is because he's openly giving up his role for basically no reason while accusing math of rolefishing. doesn't seem like a real thought to me. "Hey, this person voted me based on draft analysis. They must be scum rolefishing me! Also, I'll claim, because that makes a lot of sense as a thing to do in this scenario."

On an unrelated note, I ?think? I know who janitor is.

what's the scum motivation to that? bad play is not interchangeable with scum play.

@Ausuka: i feel like i've seen that line before

@Iconeum: It doesn't make it easier for scum to get PRs if one scum picks 2 (and if another townie picks 2). I picked the number I most thought scum would pick.

@165: PRs are NAI in this setup. My scumdar/PRdar mixup doesn't count here. This is actually one of few setups where I actively PR hunt as town in order to gamebreak.

@A50: No, it's just that you've made just one townish post so far. I'm paranoid of everyone and then I start crossing names off lists (or gradually fade names off lists). You're also mathematically less likely to be scum so w/e.
But yeah I'm not particularly paranoid of scum-you. But you have been posting within your scum meta. Still early, things may change.

Iconeum seems townish enough I guess. I agree that it's self-resolving.

We should lynch the Janitor. The Janitor is likely the low-number scum.

I townread Iconeum off this page, I'm hesitant on mathdinkle but I'll town lean him for having almost identical reads to mine.

[SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis]

FOR SURE - cold META is much more UNRELIABLE, but I have CONFIRMED to myself that Beefster is just a very FLIGHTY and PANICKY person in general ╭( ･ㅂ･)و ̑̑ ＂

If anything this is more for AUSUKA-CHAN to see ^_^

[Eddie Cane]

Yeah I need to comment on the rest but that particular thing bothered me and I told you I'd get to the rest whenever I'm on my laptop.

Feels interesting that Math wants to lynch me now since iirc right after my question. Why, Math? Can't I ask about it?

Bleh

In other words: Let's make it a personal thing. Got it.

That isn't a personal thing.

competitive

giggle snort

H-honto ni?? ( ꒪Д꒪)

I'd like to know the IDENTITY of this GUESS personally...

pedit: （ ಠωಠ）

Alisae? Is that you?

hahaha

snip

I don't like you pushing someone who seems pretty blatantly town. The rest of the post is pretty alright so shrug. I was told you're quite good as town, high expectations.

Mathdino's role speculation always throws me for a loop. I should know by now that it's NAI.

the worst is being goofy. He's a lot more serious as scum. Town

Janitor/Saske are a possible scum team IMO

VOTE: The Janitor

Meh post. But good segway for me to say the worst is a town lean too. What associations are there between the two?

Page 10: townread of Mutant. I've metadived him recently anyways and this feels like his town game, plus generally good content.