Fallout Mafia - Commonwealth Edition (Day 8)

[wilky]

Can't remember anything really from Wraith but he's rubbed a couple people the wrong way so will also iso there this weekend.

[Ouroboros]

Okay let's start with


We're town obviously
Kaede town: IM NOT 100% SURE ABOUT THIS ONE UT OKY
Nero cain town: seeing a lot of typical town him stuff
Alchemist town: meta
Ankamius town: good gut feels, meta
Wilky town: felt like a town reaction in the long run

Ramcius town- using a tell that actually it just occurs to me failed in a recent game? so I don't want to 100% this
davesaz town- maybe negotiable
MariaR I'm leaning town but I respect her enough that until I see what I'm looking for I don't lock this
Tchill feel like scum wouldn't have claimed there but again negotiable

All of these reads are largely unrelated to today's flips

So then of the remaining players my reads are

Jungle: I can't read what they've done this game. I've had massive pings from them at points, but I know they're gut pingy in general for me if I'm right about who they are (and I am.)
Impossibear: Dealt with this.
ManWithNoName: Mediocre associatives, reasonably good odds of being SvS with
Hebichan: They're kinda meh, I want more from them. I expect they'll be more readable later in the game.
Wraith: Explicitly dislike some of their recent posts, the read I most agree with from bear, I am going to actually meta dive this fairly shortly
verylazy: just bad yea
Dunn: very good scum equity if Ventriloquist flips scum, idk otherwise
Ventriloquist: ick

[Ouroboros]

obviously if hebi keeps doing what they're doing indefinitely powerlynch them
that said I'm pretty okay just saying whatever they can live for a while.

[Ouroboros]

Maria go read dunnstral pls love u

[Wraith]

Wilky with some good takes there

I still want to lynch Ram. MWNN comes a close second in here and if MWNN flips scum then I think that implicates ventriloquist.

Yeah MWNN has been slipping fairly quickly in my eyes for a while now, too.

I got tired of following a town read rather than pursuing my own reads, especially when the Ventriloquist read came down to "He's inactive".

Just because you're obvtown, doesn't mean you are always right, RC. You should have learned that by now.

I agree Ventriloquist needs to start posting, that being said, I think Realmen's posting has been to the point where he is just avoiding posting anything that can be AI. The last time I voted off of someone that was doing that, I got burned, that's why I am pushing Realmen.

Ventriloquist has enough votes without me to pressure him into voting, anyway.

Like, fuck, this is a large anyway, if I were scum with Ventriloquist, why wouldn't I vote him for the town cred anyway?

Fine, whatever.

VOTE: Ventriloquist

I don't like being a leader anyway

Lynch pool

Ventriloquist is not my top choice, but I could see him as scum. I'm pretty much just giving up on my stand to try and be assertive by voting him.

Verylazy, as explained earlier, I see scum motivation in posts where this slot is not sorting but looking to lynch TChill and Wilky.

Nero is a gut scumread, and I'd still lynch there.

Ramcius is also an outlier right now and I feel like I had a reason to scumlean on him, but I need to go back tonight and reread to see what was there thaat I would want to lynch.

After thought, I am still not a fan of trying to sort out miller claims here, and if Ourobouros is town reading Tchill, I'm not going to be enough of a force to really push that. So, that's why I switched off of them.

This sequence of posts is really bad, especially when you consider that his chief scumread, verylazy is

less

active than Vent, and his scumread on him is pretty much entirely based on one post early in the game.

[Ouroboros]

I don't know. I really don't care, literally anything I do on D1 gets me killed eventually, so why bother?

Got some of these vibes from multiple town games now: going to go see if this comes up as scum.

[Ouroboros]

Subject: Mini 1889: Greatest Idea Mafia (Endgame!)

Oh hey another game where I get wagon'd and probably killed D1

Where have I faced this situation before?

Oh wait, every game I've ever played ever. Except The Thing.

Let's get on with it, shall we?

ok NAI at worst, but that feels really fake coming from scum.

hrm.

[Wraith]

I don't know. I really don't care, literally anything I do on D1 gets me killed eventually, so why bother?

Got some of these vibes from multiple town games now: going to go see if this comes up as scum.

Both. I have an uncanny ability to get a player or two to tunnel me D1 based off something completely innocuous and unexpected, no matter what my alignment is.

[ManWithNoName]

If one post is scummy, it's scummy. I mean, I base my reads on what is here. If someone is not posting much, I base it on what they have posted.

I did not like the posts from Vent earlier today, so if my vote wasn't there they would be now.

The way I read it, he's saying the Ouroboros, Realmen and I are a scum team because we voted together. I'm the only one he even bothered to do a half-assed case on.

If it takes me getting lynched for people to actually lynch Ventriloquist and verylazy, so be it. I don't have an ego too big to take a mislynch day 1.

[Ouroboros]

I tentatively very slightly read Wraith as town but I've seen him perform in town games in ways that I would never misread him and he hasn't performed near to that level yet.

Which is another way of saying do more Wraith.

[Ramcius]

if i considered sk, i said 14 v 3 v 1, but i doubt sk - 2 millers and hider in closed game with 2 KPN (

as you see, i don't consider either of them gambiting scum in this case - i doubt scum would risk such gambit, if there was only 3 of them)

As to why i doubt 5 maf, there's general rule for numbers in game - town = 3xscum + 1, closest number is 13 v 4, adding 5th scum in closed game requires them to be very weak and town godlike.

As to games with similar numbers - Beneath the Mask was 16 v 5, Divergent was 15 v 4 v 1 and we barely won, Kingdom Hearts was 13 v 4

So when someone gives unrealistic number, i wonder if they have no idea about setups or are scum trying fake townslip

Who are the two players you are referring to in the bolded part?

The whole fake townslip over numbers is a bullshit argument if I have ever seen one. I mean who said there isn't a 5 man scum team? Just because it's slightly out from the norm doesn't mean it might not be the case. I also get a feeling your posting from a perspective that 100% knows the size of the scum team which doesn't go in your favour for my reads.

As for TRs, i never give those, unless someone do or say something that makes them locktown in my eyes, otherwise all my TRs are subject to change

And your scum reads aren't subject to change?

Why hide that information? I think anyone's TRs are always subject to change unless they are mod confirmed, yet you dont see them hiding them.

Then what point of posting townreads, if you going change them later on? If anyone want my TRs, they can just assume people i'm not scumreading are my townreads atm

Same as above there's not a possibility your scum reads will change later?

So, oldtimers, who can confirm that in past it was norm 5 scum in 18p closed games?

Does it really fucking matter? This might be the worst case of shit flinging I have ever seen in a mafia game.

i'm saying, both millers and hider must be town, if we have 3 maf + sk, but that makes weak town in a game with 2 KPN

scumreads always can change, but people don't question scumread changes so harsh as they do with townreads

When someone speculates unreasonable numbers, yes, it matters to me, it indicates that person just throwing numbers around without giving a thought to it

VOTE: Wilky

your earlier questions about my opinion on Dave and why he can't be scum in sounded like you asking opinion from town, yet you again pushing my lynch, when people realised i'm town and left my wagon

[Ouroboros]

i'm ngl I townread the shit out of that terrible omgus from ramcius

maybe he ought to have been in top townread category

[Ouroboros]

Oh and uh
The getting personally offended by my scumread on them to the point of threatening me out of game is extremely, extremely scum skewed. People think toxicity leans town, it isn't.
I'm using FA as a baseline for that style of play but I think they do get this offended by me scumreading them correctly since they don't respect me and have repeatedly throughout this game tried to assert moral dominance over me (and being correctly scumread by a 'lesser', particularly me given context, would piss them off) but I'd expect them as town to just want to rub my face in it.

Who knows I might be wrong, but if I'm right on everything town can easily survive their mislynch. I'm not sure town ever lynches them later if I don't make this an issue now.

[Wraith]

I tentatively very slightly read Wraith as town but I've seen him perform in town games in ways that I would never misread him and he hasn't performed near to that level yet.

Which is another way of saying do more Wraith.

I'm pretty god-awful D1, I get better as the field narrows and I can base deductions on concrete flips.

If one post is scummy, it's scummy. I mean, I base my reads on what is here. If someone is not posting much, I base it on what they have posted.

I did not like the posts from Vent earlier today, so if my vote wasn't there they would be now.

The way I read it, he's saying the Ouroboros, Realmen and I are a scum team because we voted together. I'm the only one he even bothered to do a half-assed case on.

If it takes me getting lynched for people to actually lynch Ventriloquist and verylazy, so be it. I don't have an ego too big to take a mislynch day 1.

Yeah, Vent is scummy as shit. But your read on verylazy is based on practically nothing, and even when I reread his ISO she actually came off as

more

favorable to me than before. The only remotely suspicious thing in there is that verylazy expressed belief that there could plausibly be two Millers and later expressed willingness to wagon wilky. But since I'm also guilty of that, that's NAI.

My problem with you is that you were reluctant to vote for the very scummy Vent compared to verylazy and made some pretty weak excuses for that reluctance, and only switched to Vent when pressured by Ouro. Vent, of all people, actually made a good point in the following post before going off into a scumtastic finger-pointing direction:

Okay so I'm locking in here

Ventriloquist is lockscum
Impossibear is lockscum
MWNN is probably scum

VOTE: Ventriloquist

You're literally like a broken record - how rudimentary is this logic? Impossibear doesn't agree with you so Impossibear must be scum? In what world would a mafia aligned player defend another mafia aligned player so damn hard, knowing that they would both go down together?

MWNN has not given substantial reasons for any of his votes, he has simply changed it several times and given some vague reasoning which never really materialises - once more he always changes his vote back to whatever Ouroboros is going with, despite voting elsewhere briefly (to create the illusion of actually having his own voice)

- Given the way in which MWNN and REALMEN instantly rallied around you, it wouldn't surprise me if you're all scum together. Ouroboros 'probably' reading MWNN makes perfect sense here, making it seem like MWNN is on his radar as a bad guy (thus distancing himself) yet never putting him at the top, therefore not having to consider lynching him.

Taking the saying of the best defense is a good offense to a whole new level.

[Ouroboros]

I do think it's fairly likely, Wraith, that this is an attempt to spew MWNN as town that really hasn't worked out.
If I'm wrong on that, something like Hebi can be scum.

Actually I think hebi is town if Vent is scum
So if/when vent flips scum you're probably town too

So like {Vent/MWNN/{RMOJ/ETLDRA/VERYLAZY/DUNN}

Actually I owe it to the davesaz read to go over all of my scumreads reactions to the double miller claims and see if I think it's plausible that one or both of the millers is scum
also the reactions to tchill but I already think tchill is kinda spewed town by some of these flips but I'll go over that.

[Wraith]

Also yeah that OMGUS is fucking

awful

and this is from someone who has been practically ignoring Ramcius so far.

[Ouroboros]

VOTE: Realmen only jungle

I'd rather have a wagon here.

wait... my homie... what happened to this?!!?!

at least i'm funny unlike ramcius :^)

I'll give you that one.

hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

I mean it is fucking awful. I, uh, think that it's more likely to be town awful though?

[Ouroboros]

Like I'd lay off of Impossibear in favour of taking the 2 people that I think might have higher scum flip odds but I know that they aren't going to get lynched if I don't do it.
Unfortunately I haven't spent time on ETL like I have on LLD getting the read to a point where I can just come out with an 100% scumread whenever I'm ready

and I'll never get a read to that point over the course of one game so

[ManWithNoName]

I'm going to just come clean on why I was fighting Ouroboros before. I played a game with RC on my main and just don't like interacting with him because his play style clashes so much with mine.

It was personal, petty and stupid. And I am nothing if not petty and stupid.

[wilky]

OK, great. Considering there is as much a chance as anything that there is a 3 man scum team with a 3rd party and if there's a 3 man scum team then Ram thinks that none of the claims are scum then why is such a huge chunk of his iso focusing on 1 of the claims being scum? Below is quotes from Ram's iso that insinuate scum in one of the claims. I still get the feeling from Ram's post that he's more in the know than most of the rest of us.

well, this hider claim might come from scum - this way they are safe from checks and can't be used as weak cop - won't die, if visit scum

Wilky remains scum and everyone who comes in and doesn't comment on him at all while pushing the wagon elsewhere is dying over the next few days.

if i have to choose, i'd lynch Tchill - he can hide from vig, if he's tells truth about his role, while miller can be dealt by vig. But if we don't have vig, we can come back to Wilky D2/D3. That's assuming we will decide he's scum and must be dealt with

well, in my past large themes there wasn't, but i trust you on this

still, i'd prefer Tchill over Wilky, he came after both miller claims, so i feel it might be scum trying take advantage of miller claims

? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ?

Why would he just not claim it if that was an issue on his radar? Why would he ever be getting protection from investigative roles when he explicitly claimed something that doesn't require investigative roles?

You're just scum pushing a mislynch to distract from Wilky here well over 90% of the time.

VOTE: Wilky

fine, have your way

VOTE: Ramcius

agree, that's good wagon

I don't understand why a townie (moreover, anyone) would vote for themselves - seems like you saw a wagon forming and then panicked to try and loosen the noose around your neck. Also, why change your vote to Wilky seemingly just because Ouroboros called you out for it? Please explain your logic.

VOTE: Ramcius

Well, i could keep my RVS vote, but we were past RVS stage, so it's kinda obvious why i voted someone, as to why i voted Wilky - I never said i townread them, just that my scumread on Tchill was stronger, hence i said Wilky can be shot.

Sure, that's true, but given all that like we got Willy to l2 almost effortlessly and this Ramcius push has gotten far less traction.

Why you comparing mine and Wilky wagons traction? He claimed miller in scummy manner, while what i did? Wanted someone else lynched? Voted myself to indicate how ridiculous i find this push "Ram is scummy"? I hear that in pretty much every game and should i make list of games, where i got ML'ed D1?

No I'm pretty sure everyone agreed it was the way they claimed not the claim itself. Can I persuade you to help me run up Ramcius?

I spectated that Bastard game GIF modded, it seems to me that Ramcius is the type of player that plays in a way that rubs ppl the wrong way and ends up getting himself lynched, ill give him the benefit of the doubt for now.

This sort of thing is what I'm worried about since the last game I played had a D1 VI lynch and I don't want to repeat that. That's why I asked Maria about him, to see if he's known to be a VI. But I still can't get over how his jump onto Wilky looked like he just wanted RC to stop pushing him. Do you think that's something Town Ramcius would do?

I just realised i can't change RC mind and going against him would ended in my own lynch, so i decided settle for my 2nd scumread and give RC his way. There are people i feel like arguing and there are people i try reason a bit and just give their way, if they seems unmovable.

As for VI, i disagree with that, it's just that people find my methods scummy or rather not up to this site meta and i get ML'ed way too often D1 to my liking.

Also, we played in Beneath the Mask, so you have some first hand experience with me and my methods

I really don't remember much from Beneath the Mask aside from the Mulch-based drama, though your avi was familiar to me.

Also I was asking Kaede about you partially to try getting a read on her. I keep looking at the early interactiin between Kaede and Maria but can't get any reads based off of it.

How come you didn't say you thought Wilky was scummy before you voted there? The way you were talking made it sound like you trusted both Miller claims as Town with scum Tchill taking advantage of the situation.

"Let's lynch Tchill, we can vig Wilky, if needed" sounds to you like Wilky is town to me?

On second thought I think I will go back on Ram for now. Half the reason I didn't want to unvote him earlier is because I don't have a better place for my vote right now and I still don't so I'll put it back just to keep up some pressure.

VOTE: Ramcius

It's not how pressure works - you don't tell people you vote just for pressure

also, why you townreading both millers and hider claimants?

well, in my past large themes there wasn't, but i trust you on this

still, i'd prefer Tchill over Wilky, he came after both miller claims, so i feel it might be scum trying take advantage of miller claims

final answer
I would lean it a few percentage points towards it being his town meta although this result isn't especially conclusive
definitely enough to not want to lynch him today, yall can clusterfuck him later in the game when me and anony are gone if you want

@Ramcius???????????????????????????????????????????????????/
How the fuck is he scum trying to take advantage of miller claims in what way does claiming that as scum take advantage of miller claims?

Are you believe some weird hider claim that isn't weak? Or it's more likely scum trying smuggle in some fishy claim during confusion caused by millers and attracting less attention than it would get normally, and simultaneously getting protection form investigative roles?

It was these 2 posts that gave me the impression, but I do see where I missed the implied Wilky scumread in that first one.

UNVOTE:

Actually I don't see the implication of Scum!me in those posts at all. In the first post there was still very much a wagon on me and saying he preferred Tchill to me looks more to me like he prefers Tchill to the current wagon rather than Tchill to his second scum read (if that makes any sense i'm not sure i'm explaining it well).

The second post refers to both me and dave as "millers", not claimed millers, or claimed pr's or even claimed roles just simply "millers" which would imply he doesn't doubt either the claims.

Oh boy, i don't think anyone believes there 2 scums in you, Dave and Tchill, so question is which one of you is scum? Dave is townread by majority, so i leave him out, as i did before, therefore it's you and Tchill. At this point i hope it's obvious, why you and Dave are millers, if Tchill is scum trying to use fuss caused by millers

I don't like Ventrilo's attempt push me, i dlike Wraith's "5 scum, no faceclaim", we still have Tchill/Wilky situation, Realmen asking to be burned with the fire, hebi's sheeping is unsettling, Nero is awkwardly silent

Hm, i guess i try

VOTE: Nero

others at least are talking

[wilky]

I'm going to just come clean on why I was fighting Ouroboros before. I played a game with RC on my main and just don't like interacting with him because his play style clashes so much with mine.

It was personal, petty and stupid. And I am nothing if not petty and stupid.

Nice AtE.

[ManWithNoName]

What emotion am I appealing to?

I don't think you're using that acronym right.

[wilky]

I think I am. You're coming in telling everyone that you were being petty and stupid hoping that we just feel bad that you let your emotions take over and cut you some slack for your earlier play.

[ManWithNoName]

I'm just coming clean, like I personally don't like RC's playstyle, but then I realized I also shouldn't let that get in the way of playing to my wincon.

Like, I really don't give a shit if you guys lynch me because I know town outnumbers scum and I know my reads will probably be respected more when you see me flip town. There's no emotional appeal here.

[ManWithNoName]

I think I am. You're coming in telling everyone that you were being petty and stupid hoping that we just feel bad that you let your emotions take over and cut you some slack for your earlier play.

I don't want you to feel bad for me, you doofus. I want you to hold me accountable.