Open 725: Jungle Republic - Day 5

[skitter30]

VOTE: yankeereaper

[skitter30]

Oh noooo. We're in trouble scumbuddies!

@wolves let's form an alliance and lynch off AP today.

Any townie is welcome to join our cause, for the sake of a fun, AP-less game.
VOTE: AP
#LynchAP

This feels almost like too strong of a reaction to that readslist to me?

[skitter30]

I've never played with him before so idk. But yeah that's the right word - it feels overdramatic to me.

If it's a personality thing than it probably isn't super AI though.

[skitter30]

You ever play multiball before?

[skitter30]

not on MS, just once offsite like 2 years ago

I was scum that time tho, nailed scum on the other team and got NK'd >.<

Hmmm, ok. I asked cuz 25 pinged me a bit. It feels like something you think you're supposed to feel so you're just saying it, if that makes sense?

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Oh cmon how are you not gonna make your lynch pool me Draynth and NM given the player in the game?

Lol that's so true

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also do I understand correctly that the mafia does not get a kill in this game. Or is it just so "assumed" that it is not mentioned in the set up?

this is reminding me of:

a) scum!esp 'forgetting' that scum don't get to kill in the last iteration of jungle republic in an attempt to fake a townslip

b) you overly focusing on attempting to understanding the mechanics like you did in pyp in an attempt to distance yourself from them [ie duh that I don't know what scum can do since I'm not scum]

--

lynch espe d1
???
???
town wins!

This is bothering me in the same way that ceejay's vote on AP was bothering me. Why is your immediate response to esp to call for him to be lynched him? Ceejay did the same thing to AP.

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duckling I'm getting scum vibes from you :/

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Also in the last iteration of jungle republic, esp did in fact get hard-cleared by just about everyone for bussing scum!a50 super-hard, so I think that there is some merit to this theory

[skitter30]

Fair enough!

[skitter30]

Third part - it was you all that chose to name me a newb skum that game... it is on me that the LAL tactic worked out, and I own that.... but go back and read the thread... any questions I had I am like.... 99% sure I asked in QT.

Also, you calling me out kind of negated the point of me asking

. Good players should be smarter every once and a while. Us dummies can create avenues for info that you can't... as long as you like... shut up for 2 hours every once and a while.

OK, what was the point of you asking? How did I negate it by asking this?

Quantify how I feel dissimilar this game from that game.

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duckling, bad OMGUS vote.

I really do think you might be scum this game, and since your reaction to me saying that is to vote me instead of like trying to interact with me about it at all ....

VOTE: the worst

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ducks aren't scum together

[skitter30]

I'm really not sure how to engage with you about your read on me skitter. you literally nitpicked a shitpost and said you're getting "scummy vibes" from me.

I don't know what the 'right' reaction would've been, but ignoring me calling you scummy and then voting me wasn't it.

[skitter30]

OK, what's ingenuine about it?

[skitter30]

Maybe I didn't phrase that super well, but the way I saw it:

-> I called the worst scummy. In that same post, I dislike a bunch of things uglyduck said.

-> uglyduck responds to what I said about him, and says he thinks I'm behaving differently from last game, and votes me (I still want him to describe how I'm being different)

-> duckling (ie the worst) hops on after uglyduck *without in any way responding to me calling him scummy* - that's what I meant by ignored. I'd have expected him to like respond to me saying that in *some* way, and not to just gloss over it. But he just .... didn't. That's not at all how I'd expect town!him to interact with me scumreading him based on past games I've played with him.

Also I think sando thinks I'm talking about uglyduck maybe? I'm talking about the worst. Uglyduck did respond to my points - tw's first post after mine was to vote me after udglyduck did.

[skitter30]

lol, ok, this'll be fun

a) @uglyduck: OK, what useful info were you expecting to gain from seeing who would be eager to answer that question?

b) @the worst: I didn't decide you were scum from the get-go. Your early posts don't really feel like town-you, and you're not interacting with me the way I'd expect town!you to be interacting with me

c) @the worst: What do you mean by 'Skitter is a lot keener and less careful here than she usually is'?

(ie 'keener' isn't used super commonly in american-english and the definition that I'm applying here doesn't really make sense given the rest of the sentence as far as I can tell )

d) @the worst: why are you voting me right now?

[skitter30]

That doesn't help lol

Honestly, I don't have very good reads right now; I dont' really think that most of the game has left RVS yet and like I don't think that most of the slots have posted AI content yet. My only decent-ish reads are scumlean on you, maybe scumlean on the other duck, and NM had like one post that I liked. Oh and I like that esp's left RVS and is pushing you.

But like half the game is some varient of scum so I'm not going to be putting much credence in townreads

[skitter30]

Oh and I forgot that yankee is maybe town on gut? I don't have a reason for that beyond gut right now.

[skitter30]

@skitter is Espeonage your partner this game?

Nah

Do you mean it felt forced to you? If so it's a personality misread for sure. I'm good enough at scum to avoid saying shit like this if it isn't genuine.

Yeah forced is a good word. It doesn't feel like a real thought? Idk how to explain that better

This is a lot closer to me taking the piss out of my drunken self for missing the irony in Espe's post and not a serious comment

Considering we've had a couple of games together as t/t I feel like you must have a gauge of my style. This all just feels so reachy...?

OK I read it again and I think that maybe I ascribed more meaning to a drunk memepost than was meant to be there?

Like I know we've played tvt together a lot and you meme a lot but this doesn't feel like the way you usually do?

idk.

UNVOTE:

I think I may have read too much into that and I think I'm going to let this read develop a bit more cuz this is exactly the sort of thing I tend to get tunneled on and like I don't want to do that.

I'm taking a break from the mounds of hw I have to do this week but I'll prob check back in in a few hours; I basically use this as a distraction when I need a break

[skitter30]

@tw: I still think it's weird that your response to me calling you scummy was to vote me tho

[skitter30]

Why is my vote on AP bothering you? that was rvs. Tho I guess it will become serious soon if AP doesn't stop posting shit.

It felt like too strong a reaction for what was effectively a memepost.

But a) tw says that might just be a personality thing from you and he has more experience with you than I do b) your post was also a memepost that I may have read too much into

So like it pings me but I'm not ascribing too much meaning to it, if that makes sense.

--

@pin: why are you townreading uglyduck?

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given this isnt skitters v/la time and she is an active poster why hold off for that long? she's under the scope, onus is on her to alignment spew rn.

Good, the quicker we do this the quicker I'll be townread

That reminds me:

@mod

I'm going to be vla Friday to Monday this weekend.

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Talk to me on Espe--what part of his push are you liking for town? (assumption given context)

I liked 73 and that he called you out for an OMGUS vote. I dislike that you tried to brush off that post.

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if you honestly thing OMGUS is remotely scumtelling what do you make of the fact skitter OMGUS'd my OMGUS vote?

#OMGUSception

My vote on you wasn't OMGUS, and you calling it that reduces my position from 'I voted tw because he didn't respond to me calling him scummy in a way I think town!tw would' to 'I voted tw cuz he voted me'

You're like stripping away all the nuance from my point by calling it an OMGUS vote.

Lecture now, so I'll pick up from here later

[skitter30]

If it were singleball draynth would be a fairly strong townread at this point cuz his play here and his play in pyp are like night and day.

Since multiball he can be a tentative townlean.

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Ugly Duck is scummy, so you vote the other duck?

Tw is scummier. The post you quoted explains why

--

169 feels weird. Like an overreaction almost?

[skitter30]

Ugly Duck is scummy, so you vote the other duck?

Tw is scummier. The post you quoted explains why

My main confusion was that you said the ducks are not scum together, yet you are scum reading both... But then I remembered that this was multiball, so it makes sense now.

I think tw is probably scum, no idea which specific flavor. I'm not sure on uglyduck atm.

If they are both scum though they aren't partners.

[skitter30]

@pin: does that knowledge affect your uglyduck read?

[skitter30]

I haven't played with scum!tw yet but he doesn't really feel like the town!tw I've played with previously to me right now.

Like I'm having a lot of trouble seeing his vote on me come from town!him given past games.

I feel like in general he's trying to gloss over being scumread or is trying to play down people scumreading him.

[skitter30]

I haven't played with scum!tw yet but he doesn't really feel like the town!tw I've played with previously to me right now.

Like I'm having a lot of trouble seeing his vote on me come from town!him given past games.

I feel like in general he's trying to gloss over being scumread or is trying to play down people scumreading him.

ok how does town!tw respond to people scumreading him for awful reasons on d1?

I'll wait.

Idk exactly. I'd have expected town!you to talk to me about it, or joke/meme/mock me for reading you wrong. Completely ignoring it only to vote me once someone else does without addressing the initial scumread in any way feels wrong.

--

I don't feel like this is an actual feeling she actually has.

You do realize you're using my reasons to scumread you as reasons to scumread me, right?

--

first and foremost: does anyone actually think it was dumb of me to miss that Espe's post here was meant to be sarcastic?
it genuinely felt like good ol' fashioned scumfuckery.

So, drunk!you thought that NM had successfully tricked scum!esp into hopping on a fake scumslip?

Why is this scum!indicative of esp and not just lazy!indicative of esp? Like I don't get why you think this is scummy and not just lazy.

2) his vote was serious in which case I can't see town motivation in it.

He said his vote was serious cuz he was too lazy to go back and check. I agree that there isn't town motivation in that, but lack of town!motivation != scum!motivation. Like I just think it's a lazy indicator and not an alignment indicator and I'm not getting where you're seeing scum motivation.

--

OK, serious read.. duckling is town

Why town!duckling?

also @mwnm since you said you had mixed up the duckling's meta and agreed with this.

bottom of page 10, I'll pick up from there in a bit

[skitter30]

wrt the 'sando/ud scum-not-killing' thing:

=> In general I don't really care if people try to get clarification about the setup or think it's AI, but ud's original post kinda pinged me since we just played a game where scum!him would deliberately invoke the setup and his 'lack' of knowledge of it in an attempt to indicate that he was town.

=> I don't think that knowing that scum don't nk in this setup without seeing it explicitly written out in the OP is particularly meaningful -> like I know that from playing a previous iteration of this game and without reading this OP. Sando coming to that conclusion from reading the role PMs, and I don't find unusual.

=> I do find it weird that sando is defending/speaking for ud and is saying things like 'we both ...' (162 and 253)

=> sando's 169 feels like an overaction to me to mwnn's statement

=> I don't understand the argument btwn sando and mwnn regarding whether ww's are given the title of 'scum' or how this discussion is like relevant or game advancing.

[skitter30]

theworst, if you had to pick a scum partner(s) for Espeonage who would it be.

your mother

you're a comedian

[skitter30]

Um. What if UD and Sando really are ignorant of the fact that mafia can't kill? I glossed over those posts and thought them NAI, because they could go either way.

Neither of us were ignorant of it,

we both assumed it due to the role PMs not mentioning it, and we both missed the actual statement in the mechanics part that is totally clear.

I guess my specific problem with this is that you're saying 'we both assumed it due to the role PMs not mentioning it', when UD hasn't said anything of the sort so like .... how do you know that's what he assumed? Like why are you explaining his thought process for him?

--

There is a clear pattern here, ask a vague leading question that implies scumminess, when challenged on that, obfuscate and back away whilst denying they were ever actually trying to imply scumminess.

so it's either lazy town play or it's scum-play.

Which is it?

--

what's your read on me btw?

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sando and mwnn not scum together I think?

--

(aside, nice use of 'parochial' )

[skitter30]

Sando, idk, your MWNN read isn't sitting super well with me. It kind of feels like you're hedging on calling him scummy, if that makes sense?

There is a clear pattern here, ask a vague leading question that implies scumminess, when challenged on that, obfuscate and back away whilst denying they were ever actually trying to imply scumminess.

Like this to me feels like you're describing scummy behavior but your conclusion is that he's more likely than not bad town. This bit that I've quoted I associate more with scum than bad town tbh.

Like you're kinda doing the same thing he is: imply scumminess but backing away when someone tries to get you to commit either way.

Only scum are motivated to act in the way he has, but I'd say it's fairly good scumplay and quite a subtle art, so it's more likely to be a townie being silly imo.

Like what does this mean exactly?

What I understand you to be saying: 'Only scum are motivated to behave the way he does, but such behavior is *such* good scumplay that like most people aren't that good at scum so it's more likely that he's just bad town instead'?

Like .... why isn't he good scum behaving in this fashion that you believe to be scum motivated? I don't super understand the conclusion that he's just bad town instead of good scum tbh.

--

I almost feel like you've cased him to discredit his push on you tbh.

[skitter30]

So, drunk!you thought that NM had successfully tricked scum!esp into hopping on a fake scumslip?

Why is this scum!indicative of esp and not just lazy!indicative of esp? Like I don't get why you think this is scummy and not just lazy.

Probably singleball thinking. Scum want a lynch, town want scum. I just don't see town!Espe actually thinking that was a genuine slip from me :s it felt so opportunitic and weird

Ftr v/la conferencing the next couple of days. Let me know if you want anything from me (sans ridiculous requests TYR )

Thing is that I don't really think scum!esp is any more likely to think that was a genuine slip. I really just think it was a derp/lazy-indicator and not so much an alignment indicator.

I hope the conference goes well

[skitter30]

@sando:

=> I think that MWNN hasn't been totally understanding your posts and that he's responding to what he thinks you said, not what you actually said, and when he couldn't parse your argument he just ended the convo. I don't think that's inherently AI. I don't really have a read on him from that convo.

=> I think that you're ascribing scummy motivation to his half of the convo and framing it as being scummy, and then come to the conclusion that it's more likely than not bad town which doesn't totally match up to me.

=> The reason why I'm having a problem with this at all is that you seem to be trying to undermine his vote on you: you're describing his motivations in his half of the convo of being scummy/disingenuous. Like this seems to be a really really long-winded way of going about calling his read/vote on you bad.

[skitter30]

Say, isn't N_M in this game? I think we can cownt on him reading tw.

VOTE: the worst

@ap: does this affect your read on tw?

[skitter30]

@sando:

=> I'm saying that I don't think that not reading it is AI tbh. Lots of people just don't bother reading my posts and I haven't seen a correlation between 'reading complicated posts' and 'alignment'

=> I tried to answer your question as best I can: I don't have a read on him right now. I don't know if your conclusion about scum/bad town is correct or incorrect cuz I don't have a read. Or, more accurately, I don't have a read that I'm confident enough in to actually pick a side (if I *had* to pick, I'd give a *very* slight townlean but it wouldn't be enough to feel confident about that read in singleball, and most certainly not in multiball).

I'm not throwing shade. I'm saying that your original case/read on him was very hedge-y, and didn't come to a firm conclusion. From that post alone, it looked like you were scum-casing him, and I almost expected a vote from you on him after I read it, but you left the conclusion open to being 'lazy town or scum', and didn't commit to one or the other till I pressed you. I don't particularly find your 'bad-town' read on him to be real or convincing; your original post left it ambiguous and when ceejay there voted because of your post, you didn't clarify that you're actually 'bad-town'-casing him in that post and not scum-casing him. ie you didn't really seem to have a problem with ceejay voting someone because of a case you wrote that wasn't actually a scumcase, but rather a bad-towncase

=> It's purely about your reaction to it and

how you framed your case on him to make him look scummy

(ie to the point where people viewed it as a scumcase and voted there because of it) even though you aren't calling him scum.

Unless you actually want to address my points, about his posting being bad, scumhunting and Hanlons razor, my actual reasoning for it being town instead of scum...then this is a totally pointless conversation.

Like I get all of this. I understand why you're telling me you've come to the conclusion of bad town and why his posting is bad, and this isn't what I have a problem with. What I don't get is why you're initial post looks like a scumcase and is framing his half of the convo in a bad/scummy light when your actual argument is that he isn't scum. Or why that post was made at all if you weren't trying to scumcase him. And now that I think about it, how it was even a response to the original question that I asked: why you were speaking for UD.

I'm not waffling: I'm telling you that I think that you were scummy in how you presented your read on MWNN because it looks like you're trying to frame him in a scummy light when you aren't actually calling him scum. Like it looks to me more about trying to discredit MWNN in an attempt to distract from his vote on you / his line of questioning than actually explaining a read on him. And I find it really weird that you didn't have a problem with ceejay voting there becuase of you when you *weren't* scumcasing him.

[skitter30]

Um. What if UD and Sando really are ignorant of the fact that mafia can't kill? I glossed over those posts and thought them NAI, because they could go either way.

Neither of us were ignorant of it, we both assumed it due to the role PMs not mentioning it, and we both missed the actual statement in the mechanics part that is totally clear.

Okay I'm gonna assume you're not werewolf then. Possibly could still be scum tho.

Not sure about uglyduck because skitter said that he has a history of dumbtelling.

Not precisely dumbtelling but more like trying to distance himself from setup specifics in an attempt to indicate that because he doesn't know them he isn't scum.

[skitter30]

...so you're saying I made a big deal about someone and then avoided calling him scum, as scum? Like...why? What would I be gaining there as scum?

Yes. I think you were more focused on explaining why his line of questioning shouldn't be listened to than explaining a read. That's my point - I think the goal of that post was more about discrediting him than anything else. I don't know if you were specifically trying to avoid calling him scum so much as you were focusing on why his read on you was bad; my problem is that in doing so, you attributed scummy behavior to him, left it ambiguous as 'lazy town or scum', and then called him bad town when pressed, so I don't get why that whole post looked like a scumcase.

CJ picked up my case and ran with it and instead of realising I had a good mislynch target (well as scum I'd know he's at least not my faction and presumably CJ isn't buddying me as my scumpartner THAT closely), I decided to wind that back and say "nah, more likely to be town". C'mon, where's the logical scum-play here? What am I, as scum, hoping to achieve here?

I don't know why you didn't hop on, or why you didn't cultivate the wagon by proceeding to scumread MWNN when I asked. I also don't know why you didn't protest when someone else started a wagon on someone you're bad-town-reading because of a case you wrote.

You're not making your scumread on me clear, anyone reading our interaction in the last few pages would see that before this latest post you've never outright said I'm scummy.

Lot's of "it's almost like" and "my problem is" and "feels like", without coming out and actually giving a scumpinion.

This a writing/posting style thing and just how I write. Like those are just the phrases I use to describe things in general (and if you don't believe me you can just like ctrl+f my ISO in previous games; if I had to guess, 'feels like' will come up most often). And I like to think that I write clearly enough that people can understand my point without me having to frame my sentences as 'I find player A to be scummy because ...' or 'I townread player B because ...' .

No, I didn't explicitly say 'I think sando is scum because ...', but I made it very clear that I think you're behaving in a scummy fashion. My problem with you is that your post *looks* like it's scumcasing someone but apparently isn't, because when pressed you said you just think he's bad town, and I find that duplicitous.

Honestly forgot to move my vote to you

VOTE: sando

[skitter30]

This is beginning to feel quite a lot like the last iteration of jungle republic ....

Rofl, ok, so you can't actually explain a motivation for why I'd do what I'm doing as scum, but you're pretty sure I'm scum...nice scumhunting there...

Also, my very next post after CJs vote was explaining to you that I thought it was most likely town...gee I'm soooooo sorry I didn't directly call out CJ there. I could have done exactly what you've just done, claim "forgetfulness" and drop my vote on him post CJ, instead I responded to you about how I think it's more likely town than not.

I think you just weren't particularly planning on committing to a read either way cuz that wasn't the motivation of the post; you weren't trying to explain a read but rather discredit MWNN despite 'more likely than not' townreading him.

Like my argument is that you 'wrote up a post that looks like a scumcase but apparently wasn't because you say you're townreading him to some degree, so I find that initial post to be discredit-y of MWNN', not that 'you deliberately avoided commiting to a read on someone you had made a thing about', which isn't quite the same thing, and I don't know why you'd do the latter.

And like, you still haven't protested the fact that ceejay's voting someone you think is more likely town than not based on a case that you wrote.

[skitter30]

OK, I'm going to start doing the spoiler thing before people get pissed at me

Spoiler:

Why on earth would I protest it? CJ took what I posted and drew a different conclusion than me, so what? I'm clearly not very sure on my own conclusion, I said 60/40, which also just happens to be pretty much the ratio of town to scum (this was an accident, 60/40 was picked to show I'm really not sure).

My point is that you're more townreading him than not, so you being fine with someone sheeping a not-scumcase by you to vote there is weird.

Like if I had written up a post explaining why someone's reasoning is bad but didn't vote there cuz I was tending to town on them, and it had been misinterpreted by someone else as a sheepable scumcase, I would have said something like 'hey, that post doesn't mean I'm scumreading them; why do you think the stuff in that post makes him scummy enough to vote?'

I'm STILL not committing. What about "60/40" is committing? It's the ratio we started with, it's specifically NOT committing. He also just recently didn't make my townlist (which is very short), why on earth are you trying to paint me out to be TRing him? I was putting it out there to draw attention to it for others to compare with their experiences, things like "yeah I've played with him before, he's normally a really logical guy with committed questioning" or "nah man, that's just how he is".

a) Yes, I agree with you in that post that you didn't commit. My whole problem is that it looks like you're scum-casing him but didn't commit to that, which is disingenuous.

b) I'm not painting you as currently having a townread on him. I've very clearly said that you said you have a 'more likely than not' townread on him (60>40, right?). Nowhere did I imply that you said you have a confident/strong townread there.

Why aren't you protesting CJs vote? What do you think of it given you think he's sheeping scum?

Basically I'm saying that if he misinterpreted your post that badly I'm surprised that you didn't like correct his line of thinking at any point, and that it's an indicator that you're fine with it being read as a scumcase.

I think ceejay is slightly scummy in general (the one post of NM's that I liked was him voting ceejay after a post that pinged me). I however think that him sheeping you is more on you since your post looks like it was a scumcase when it apparently wasn't meant to be read that way, and you never clarified that.

[skitter30]

My case on Espe was 'why I think that post is bad' more than 'why I think he is clearly scum'

. I don't see any reason to townread him or like the post. I also don't have much of a read on him.

More than anything I was surprised HOW different skitter's pov on it was.

first and foremost: does anyone actually think it was dumb of me to miss that Espe's post here was meant to be sarcastic?

it genuinely felt like good ol' fashioned scumfuckery

I was under the impression that you were scumreading him for his intial vote on you (in fact we even went back and forth about this?), and also that you disliked 73

[skitter30]

I need your word about Draynth too. I'm biased because my last finished game is with scum!Draynth on it and I don't know how town!Draynth plays. From someone who hasn't played with Draynth, what are your thoughts on him?

Never played with him, but he strikes me as a scummy lurker. His post about me and UD being scum was ill-considered and he hasn't responded to criticism of that. The lack of content gives me a lack of insight obviously, but twas him bringing up this whole thing about me and UD not reading the role PMs and opening post, so for him to subsequently stay quiet strikes me as scum setting something up for townies to kill themselves over.

I get that draynth has had few posts, but the ones that he has are like six billion times townier than anything he posted in pyp, which like half of us played in last week where he was scum.

And he's busy in real life, and you're framing that as him causing a shitstorm and then lurking in order to let town tear itself up in the fallout.

I feel like you're ascribing scummy motivation (ie staying quiet after scumreading you/ud) to something completely NAI (ie being busy irl)

[skitter30]

I did read that. And I'm saying that 'wandering off after kissing the bloke's girlfriend' isn't AI to me because draynth said he's busy irl.

[skitter30]

Seems like you're slowly coming around to the idea that I posted a case and and now trying to slink off while town carries my bags?

I don't know what you mean by this

[skitter30]

Namely, the idea that you drop some bait about someone's scumminess and slink away while townies fight over it and kill themselves in the process.

You mean the ceejay thing?

I brought that up before the draynth thing so I don't know what your point is

ie you didn't really seem to have a problem with ceejay voting someone because of a case you wrote that wasn't actually a scumcase, but rather a bad-towncase

Except that isn't quite my point because I don't know if you necessarily planned it as bait so much as didn't object when it happened to be read as a scumcase by someone else.

--

back to the draynth thing, I think that you're framing something NAI as being scummy.

[skitter30]

Draynth - town

Why is your conclusion that draynth is town given 359?

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back to the draynth thing, I think that you're framing something NAI as being scummy.

So Pintu explicitly stated agreement with me and was clearly fishing for that sort of answer, so he already had it in mind. And UD has reiterated some of my points and some of yours.

Why exactly do you think it's me that's scummy and why do you seem to hold the view that someone should be incredibly definitive with their D1 scumreads

?

wrt pin - he asked the question but like if you think he was fishing for that sort of answer, you gave him the answer he wanted to hear. And if you think he was fishing for that answer, why didn't you point that out? Also I'm not sure if he was fishing for an answer so much as stating his opinion and asking others what their opinion was too

wrt ud - I mean, I'm not psychic? I can't call someone out for an argument they made before they made the argument

wrt bolded - I don't know what that means or where you think I'm doing that

--

Could you give some examples? I've only played with TW once (PYP) and since I was scum that game I can't really compare that game and this one objectively.

He's played with and/or spectated a bunch of my games in the past few months, and more than once he's said that he respects my town game *a lot*.

in pyp, the following was his response to someone saying they wanted to lynch me in RVS before I even posted:

don't lynch skitter pls

shortly after I entered the thread before I'd really done anything:

anyway.........town!skitter is awesome so I will just try to resist reading her for now in the hope she skitters

when he's town he wants to work with me and wants to understand what I'm thinking and work things through with me

here: votes me for calling him scummy without engaging me about it at all. It's specifically the lack of engagement that's pinging me because that's not how town!him interacts with me.

Like instead of talking to me about it, he doesn't respond and hops on a wagon that someone else made, and like I just don't' see town!duck doing that at that point in the game given that I don't think he'd sorted me yet and he usually wants to work with me

--

@tyr: happy birthday

[skitter30]

wrt ud - I mean, I'm not psychic? I can't call someone out for an argument they made before they made the argument

wrt bolded - I don't know what that means or where you think I'm doing that

Yet you seem to want me to psychically know what Pintu's thoughts were...

Bolded - You think my thoughts on Draynth are a "framing", well Pintu has expressed the exact same thoughts and UD has confirmed some of them, and refuted others. What are your thoughts on the "framing" given Pintu thinks exactly the same? What are your thoughts on the "framing" now that UD has made his statement about it?

italics: no I don't. My point is in the italics in the following quote:

back to the draynth thing, I think that you're framing something NAI as being scummy.

So Pintu explicitly stated agreement with me and was clearly fishing for that sort of answer, so he already had it in mind. And UD has reiterated some of my points and some of yours.

Why exactly do you think it's me that's scummy

and why do you seem to hold the view that someone should be incredibly definitive with their D1 scumreads?

You're basically telling me that you think I'm singling you out for being scummy when pin and ud had made similar arguments and that I hadn't talked about them.

wrt ud, I'm pointing out that his draynth read happened in 359-360 - I couldn't have talked about him because his read happened after my post. I wasn't like ignoring his read - it just didn't exist yet.

My thoughts on his draynth read *now* is that I don't understand much of anything written in 359, which is why I asked him to explain his draynth townread.

I think that pin just stated his opinion that he thinks draynth may be scummy and asked other people for their reads. I think that you took the oppurutnity to call him scummy for something that isn't AI.

Pin and ud have meta reasons for associating draynth lurking with draynth being scummy. You explicitly said your read wasn't meta-based, but that you think him lurking is scummy, and my point is that being busy irl isn't AI.

[skitter30]

Draynth - town

Why is your conclusion that draynth is town given 359?

I did say why in the post - I think that he at least "tried" as skum. this seems different.

I think he's trying significantly more here than he did there.

--

Pin and ud have meta reasons for associating draynth lurking with draynth being scummy. You explicitly said your read wasn't meta-based, but that you think him lurking is scummy, and my point is that being busy irl isn't AI.

It's almost like scum could

*gasp*

lie...

It's almost like people could *gasp* be busy irl ....

I don't understand why you're assuming that there's scummy motivation in him not posting for like two days when it could just as easily be explained by him being busy

tbqh if this weren't multiball I'd have close to lock-towned him already because his posts are ridiculously more nuanced than anything posted in pyp despite the superficial similarity of him saying he's busy irl

(because multiball I'm not going to locktown him just yet; in the last iteration of jungle republic I basically locktowned someone (montosh; whom I had played against scum the week before and had him as hard scum for most of the game and wanted to townread him in jungle republic for being insanely more nuanced) for very similar reasoning and it turns out that they were just good at faking in multiball the things they couldn't in singleball)

--

Where I'm stuck at in terms of reads:

{Pintu, Draynth} --town
{Not_Mafia, Sando}
{Skitter, UglyDuck}
{YankeeReaper, The Worst} --null
{AP}
{NoNameMan, Espe} --probs scum

I'm pretty sure there must be one or more scum above my null line but that will sort itself out later.

I mean, there's 5 scum so like unless you've pegged all of them at least one must be above your null line?

why on nm, sando, mwnn, and esp?

--

I can't predict the future

[skitter30]

A few things skitter is posting are looking townier
ironically I don't think she's taking the time to get an accurate read on me but
meh, we got a whole probably

AP where you at with NM? I have a strong feeling

I mean, I feel like I've made my read on you pretty clear and I don't think you've done anything to warrant changing it?

And like there's a few times when I posted stuff @you that you kinda ignored so idk what you want me to be doing instead ...?

--

My best shot at a town NM. This post of mine really is pingy, and his rxn to it pings town to me.

that was the one post of nm that I liked that I mentioned in 112

Reason for NM below the nulls line is I'd rather lynch him than lynch one of my nulls.

But I very much share this sentiment

--

A few things skitter is posting are looking townier

I wanted to led it ride for a day or so to see how she responded, but yeah I'm tending to agree. The desperate attempt to read everything I do as scummy strikes me as townie,

plus she's run this well beyond what a scum would see as viable I think.

UNVOTE:

a) i don't think I'm being 'desperate'

b) yeah the bolded is basically the correct way to read me cuz like I can't really fake being stubborn or keep on argument going over a longish period of time if I didn't actually believe what I was saying. this basically

[skitter30]

Ok I'm basically v/la till like monday btw

[skitter30]

@sando: That isn't how I'd use the word 'desperate', but I get what you're trying to say now, although I don't think it's accurate to say that I've painted your every action as being scummy. But then mathdino said I did the same thing to him last game so I guess that's what I do when I get tunneled? Cept I don't think I'm tunneled right now.

@tw: can you talk to me about why you were initially scumreading me and why you're now not?

And I'm not entirely sure what you feel bad and/or lost about?

And can you clarify your reads on both esp and nm? I'm not really sure where you stand on either of them.

[skitter30]

I feel bad and confused if I've ignored things you've specifically directed at me. I don't necessarily feel the need to comment on every post you make but I definitely don't intend to ignore anyone.

Well, idk if I phrased them as questions so much as made observations that I was kinda expecting you to make some sort of response to, but maybe I didn't convey that well so that might be on me, idk. So like, don't feel bad or anything <3

(I was worried for a minute that I had done something to like make you feel bad on like a personal level or something, which is not what I want to do like at all)

Espe dead null. Disliked his early content but on the balance of things not really an AI distaste. Need more content when he's available.

So this was one of the things that I had brought up earlier in 350. You had oringally said his vote on you felt like 'good ol' fashioned scumfuckery' so I'm trying to understand why you stopped thinking that the vote was scummy and why you're now saying his early game was probably NAI.

I have a *slight* (ie like *tiny*) townlean on NM and theoretically I'd be down to pl him but this setup only allows for one mislynch if wolves don't crosskill so a pl probably isn't the best idea here.

--

sup, prodded but scum aint dedded yet.

what does this mean? I get you are aknoledging you were prodded... but skum aint dedded means?

he's basically saying that he wanted scum to get lynched in his absence and the connotation is that he still maintains the same scumread that he had earlier, which I think is the one on tw.

aside, is english your first language?

[skitter30]

@ud: why aren't you scumreading me anymore?

--

I don't understand where the draynth votes are coming from, and like esp said, I don't think they'll encourage him to post more.

--

yes it's an awful reflex

but you lurked until you're voted then come in and continue to tell people to vote me for....apparently no reason?
and there's a lot of people I don't feel like voting right now

@tw: I don't get why you voted esp after he tried to get votes on you, especially since you just told me you don't have a read on him. And like he has a reason for scumreading you even though you don't like it and don't agree with it? I don't get where the 'no reason' bit is coming from.

--

I think Espe's theorising about multiball says he's werewolf, who are likely to play like normal scum imo. Directing town away from "normal" scumhunting is not helping town and has not been clarified.

I don't understand what you mean by this. Why is theorizing about multiball specifically werewolf indicative? Why is it even scum indicative in a generic-scum sense?

[skitter30]

skitter, what do you make of Espe's approach to this game in general?

Lurky but he said he was busy. I like the push on you, I dislike that he hasn't done much else, and I dislike your reaction to his posts.

p-edit he was the vig that vigged you there

[skitter30]

in math's stack the deck he vigged you the same night a50 protected you and scum tried kill you.

[skitter30]

oh right another one ran after that

[skitter30]

I don't understand what you mean by this. Why is theorizing about multiball specifically werewolf indicative? Why is it even scum indicative in a generic-scum sense?

Theorising itself is not, but:
a) he's not backing up his theory, he's just saying "I've played jungle before, this is how you do it", hence my Appeal to Authority statement.
b) I think it's werewolf because they're the "traditional" scum in this game. They've got a NK, they don't have to worry about being NK'd and they've got a PR they need to deal with. They have some extra thoughts on their mind, like needing to get scum numbers lower (I think this is how end-game works from my reading), but overall they can probably play a formal normal scumgame, which I'm positing that you can therefore normally scumhunt. Espe is saying that you can't normal scumhunt (which I disagree with) and that's saying to town that they shouldn't do something that should in theory be just as effective against one-scumfaction, wolves. Hence via that old logic-centre in mah brain, most likely wolf.

a) I mean, his theory seems to work - he won the last jungle republic that way

b) I don't really agree that scum play a normal scumgame in multiball- both factions can legitimately look for scum (and thus can naturally do behaviors that are normally associated with town). As such, it's hard to scumhunt normally because scum can do townie behaviors. And wolves' night actions aren't entirely analogous to those of scum in singleball because they don't know the alignment of the nk - they can choose to try to shoot for scum instead of shooting a townie.

[skitter30]

AP, why Draynth?

TBH, it's starting to be a PL for me in all games I'm in with him. He does jack shit and then replaces out. I want him to replace out sooner than later.

So your vote was a pressure vote?

[skitter30]

OK I think I know who you are now, maybe. (at least, I have it down to probably one of two people from the second stack-the-deck playerlist)

we don't really have room for a pl in this setup. Town has one mislynch if wolves don't crosskill

[skitter30]

I mean, I agree, but that's why I'm saying I don't think that the things you're calling out esp for are specifically werewolf indicative.

p-edit: @sando

[skitter30]

OK I think I know who you are now, maybe. (at least, I have it down to probably one of two people from the second stack-the-deck playerlist)

we don't really have room for a pl in this setup. Town has one mislynch if wolves don't crosskill

Even better point. I am not one to trust for any sort of number things. And if you had it down to one of two that probably locks it in to me.

Actually I'm wrong. There's two mislynches if wolves never crosskill, apologies. I was misremembering the last jungle republic.

Anyway, I'm bouncing till Monday.

[skitter30]

OK I'm off of v/la but I don't think I'll get to this till my break tomorrow.

[skitter30]

OK I'm going to do my best not to wallpost.

--> @sando, 529: I'm a little bit confused about this given that you've previously characterized him as a scummy lurker? Like you're now saying that posting elsewhere isn't really inherently scummy?

--> I don't get why UD won't just share his reasons for thinking sando is scum? He never did share why he thought I was scum; he later just said he was no longer scumreading me. I do feel like the past paragraph of 539 is him trying to (badly) deflect away from the attention he's recieved over the sando vote and I don't much like it.

I'm kinda getting the vibe that he might be mislynchbait, cuz people seem to be scumreading him and hopping on him for not making sense (ie and not for being inherently scummy), but then I misread him badly last time, so what do I know? I do feel very confident that the ducks aren't scum together though, but I think I said that already.

--> mwnn maybe town? (btw, I did in fact think you were brass )

--> hi fumuki! (yeah I pretty much always write wallposts. Sorry, I try really hard not to but I'm not very good at it)

ok I got up to page 26 but I gotta get to class, I'll pick up later

[skitter30]

OK I'm around but I'm on like page 27 but it looks like people are waiting for me?

[skitter30]

TW, we need to heavily disagree here. Sando didn't notice until a minute ago that Mafia has no reason to want to out the Seer. Do you think if he's scum here he would be thinking only about the other team and not what he himself should do?

It makes no sense duckling. There's some probability of him being mafia, but if Sando is scum, he's very likely flipping wolf here.

Yo TW, have your fun with Fumi, but it's just occurred to me: Why are people so concerned about which scumfaction the person is? Town are the least likely to care about what faction someone is other than that they're scum, at least while seer is alive and well.

This basically. Atm I think we just want to lynch scum. In an ideal universe we'd be wolfhunting cuz we don't want nk's but idk if there's a particularly reliable way to distinguish between wolves and scum pre-flip day1 so like I'd be happy with getting any flavor of scum tbh. Like later in the game we need to be cognizant of wincons and try to make sure we don't lose by lynching the wrong scumteam, but beyond the general 'eradicating wolves eliminates nk's' I don't really know if the particulars really matter today.

(mafia!a50 tried to pull some variation of this argument in the last iteration of jungle republic)

PLUS, WHY ARE YOU SAYING THAT TOWN SHOULDN'T CARE ABOUT WHAT FACTION THEY LYNCH?

IF WE LYNCH THE WEREWOLVES HERE, IT BECOME NIGHTLESS AND TOWN GAINS 100% CONTROL OF WHO DIES

Specifically this bit. Mafia!a50 kept shouting this at me there day2.

(town!me held sando's above position, and mafia!a50 held fumuki's above position so idk why this is a argument for scum!sando tbh)

Well he's saying wolves should be killing mafia overnight, ignoring that while that's true, their actual top priority is the seer.

I don't understand this argument between fumuki and sando tbh. In different game states wolves prioritize different things. There isn't a general rule of 'wolves always want to kill the seer' or 'wolves always want to kill mafia' or 'wolves always want to kill people scumreading them'. They'll do whatever's more expedient for them at that time, so like I don't understand why you're quibbling over this.

I don't care who the werewolves are killing first, I need to lynch mafia and werewolves, and I have no way of telling which scum are which during Day 1, so, can we stop talking about who kills whom first?

+1

OK you can be promoted to like minor townlean

If the 2 werewolves drop dead, it becomes a nightless game practically and

town have 100% control of the lynchs

. Town has an advantage in nightless games because the town powerhouses can't eat the NK.

Mafia is the one that benefits more by leaving the Werewolves alive because LATER they need to hunt the Seer and that's basically killing townies while Mafia coast.

I feel like your understanding of the game is fairly simplistic: we want to eradicate wolves so that the game becomes nightless. In theory, that's true ... but like, in practice, lynching two wolves two days in a row isn't nearly as easy as you make it out to be. Like ... lynching scum *in general* isn't nearly as easy as you're making it out to be and just saying 'we're going to lynch wolves today and tomorrow' like isn't going to make that happen and I'll be happy to just lynch not-town.

Also you're claiming that by eradicating all the wolves, town has control over the lynch - that isn't true. Even by lynching all the wolves, day3 there's *at minimum* a two-team scumteam who can influence the lynch, and I think that's a pretty important factor in all of this.

ok i'll end this here and start a new post.

[skitter30]

zzzzzzz

why is this wolf vs mafia argument still going on like five pages later?

--

You know what guys? I'm maybe changing plans here.

As long as the Seer is alive and he leaves crumbes of who is werewolf and who isn't werewolves, It may be for the best to try lynching Mafia.

When we get the Seer results here we can eliminate the werewolf pool anyway. We deal with them later because I'm not in the mood to lose because WW aren't going to cooperate with town to eliminate the red colored guys.

Uh, didn't you literally like *three posts above this* post stats explaining that the only recent town win happened cuz town lynched the wolves? Why the change of heart after like six pages?

794 - he won the last jungle republic cuz he hard-bussed a50 and cuz for reasons beyond me people wouldn't lynch the obvscum for four freaking days, who proceeded to kill a townie the last night instead of hitting mafia.

Yeah the mafia won, but like, that wasn't only reason.

And in the last iteration of jungle republic, the first nk was a combo of seer-hunting/mafia-hunting (the nk was literally descirbed as someone who had the potential to be either); the second nk was seer-hunting; the third nk was me cuz if it wasn't I was going to do my damndest for the fourth day in a row to get the wolf lynched and he didn't want to deal with me irregardless of my alignment and I wasn't lynchable at that point; the fourth nk was mafia-hunting but he hit a townie instead.

It isn't accurate to say that the wolves tried to kill townies, because that wasn't really what they were trying to do each night.

--

I don't understand why you want to lynch esp if you think he's mafia given that you spent like a billion pages shouting that we need to lynch wolves.

--

I don't understand the esp case in general tbh. THat last time he let wolves do their own thing and he won as scum so he's scum here for not realizing that wolves are dangerous to town?

I think you're scumreading him for having a different game/set-up philosophy and not something actually scum-indicative tbh.

--

but it'll be kind of apparent if they are shooting for the Seer or if they are trying to hit Mafia,

like, if they shot someone like UD they are totally shooting town, there's a lot of better choices to catch scum right now.

I disagree with this premise (source: first nk of the last iteration of jungle republic)

--

What are you even talking about Espeonage? Do you seriously think that in a multiball where Mafia hasn't NK it's just due to your "bussing" that you won?

It too was because the Werewolves had bad reads (and were again hunting the fricking Seer), killing a lot of the town. And when Werewolves suck, we need to try lynching them before they hurt town too much. Either that or focus in lynching Mafia as long as the Seer is alive.

You like weren't in that game, and it's beginning to get annoying to see you use a game prove your point when it doesn't.

-> wolves played horribly and were on the defensive from like page 3 (ie I caught one; proceeded to have a twenty page argument with him; he just *barely* escaped the noose; wolves failed to be on the mafia lynch iirc; wolves failed to kill a scum at night) Basically the only thing they had going for them via dayplay is that I got it into my head that the wolf was mafia and he was able to spin being 'mafia' and not a wolf into not getting lynched for a day

-> scum associatives were really, really, really good. They were able to utilize their numbers at endgame to get a townie lynched.

-> they weren't particularly hunting the seer and like I don't get why you're so fixated on the seer tbh.

[skitter30]

There is a difference between forcing through a lynch on someone with reasoning based on falacies, and lynching someone you actually think is scum. You are doing the former.

Yeah I don't really have a read on esp but I agree with him here. I don't understand the case that's being pushed on him.

--

It's not possible that after playing it in first-hand Espeonage didn't notice that Werewolves did hurt town A LOT, and if he did notice it, it makes little sense him saying that there's no difference between Werewolves and Mafia.

k, town lost that game because:

-> scum associatives were really really good

-> I let myself get into a 10 page 1v1 with a wolf which made the game impossible for like anyone to read

-> people wouldn't lynch the wolf despite me trying for four days

The wolf nk's really, really didn't impact anything much, besides for like the last night when the wolf needed to shoot mafia to continue the game but hit a townie.

In fact, one of the wolves was *caught on badly speculating on the purpose of the first nk*

Werewolves (and their kills) really didn't hurt town that much that game so can you stop pushing this narrative based on a game you weren't in that you didn't actually read? It's beginning to annoy me.

--

What I was arguing is that mafia and ww are going to be ridiculously hard to tell apart.
If we all agree lynching town is worse than lynching scum.

Then isn't it the most obvious thing in the world that we prioritise lynching scum. And that by inhibiting your pool to your own interpretation of how one side will act, you increase the chance of a misslynch.

Yes, this basically

--

lynching scum *in general* isn't nearly as easy as you're making it out to be and just saying 'we're going to lynch wolves today and tomorrow' like isn't going to make that happen and I'll be happy to just lynch not-town.

You had me up till here, but 7 v 5 is significantly better odds than town normally get D1, I think blind luck here is better lynch percentage than regular games where they actually scumhunt?

I mean, yes, the odds of finding scum better than singleball if you pick a name out of a hat but what I meant is that in general scum lynches tend to have resistance, so even if you find scum it's not necessarily possible to get them lynched.

source: last jungle republic, sigh

--

Like I said, most scum tells and all comes from the fact that scum generally feel themselves as "outsiders"

I don't see why this doesn't apply here

--

Goodposting

What I don't like about Duckling this game is his voting sequence: some of them seems to be rushed and without explanation, even when people is suspecting him, like trying to deviate attention quickly to another wagon.

Yes, I was getting the same vibe

yay I'm in real time again

[skitter30]

By the way skitter, what is actually "scum-indicative" here?

Being duplicitous or opportunistic or taking positions because they're convenient and not necessarily because you believe them. Being fake. Having bad associatives with flipped scum.

I don't think that having a different philosphy towards multiball than me is inherently scummy.

[skitter30]

The wolf nk's really, really didn't impact anything much, besides for like the last night when the wolf needed to shoot mafia to continue the game but hit a townie

You get that it came to that point

because

the wolf night kills impacted the game by reducing town and letting mafia reach majority/half the players right?

Anyway, I don't even want to talk about this anymore

I'M SHEEPING THE NEXT PERSON THAT MAKES A GOOD CASE

YOU'VE GOT MY ATTENTION GUYS

THE FIRST NIGHT THEY TRIED TO SHOOT FOR MAFIA.

[skitter30]

zzzzzzz this argument is also becoming boring and annoying

I think the case against esp is stupid.

I want to lynch in {sando/the worst} with a side of ud and I'll probably compromise on ceejay or nm at deadline if necessary.

I don't want to lynch pin/mwnn. I was townreading draynth. Fumuki is losing that townread but I think that's out of annoyance but I don't want to lynch them because of draynth.

I don't really have a read on ap, esp, or nm, and I think that's everyone.

[skitter30]

By the way skitter, what is actually "scum-indicative" here?

Being duplicitous or opportunistic or taking positions because they're convenient and not necessarily because you believe them. Being fake. Having bad associatives with flipped scum.

Hmmm...

I agree

somewhat

opportunism. Agree with associatives however...they are kind sketchy....

But skitter, reconsider a little "being fake", because like I said, scum really may end up feeling more like scum masons than true "scums" that know all the alignments and know that they are lying when say that X person seems scummy to them.

I'm basically thinking about what worked in previous games of multiball that I played, and tbh, most of the things that I successfully scumread scum with were singleball tells and not really any multiball tells.

Also why aren't you accusing me of being scum like you did with esp for having this theory despite previously playing jungle republic?

[skitter30]

why does like anyone want to lynch me again?

I don't like like any of your votes

[skitter30]

OK I'm going to do homework now but I'm in real-time with internet access so I shouldn't fall behind like that again I think

[skitter30]

why does like anyone want to lynch me again?

I don't like like any of your votes

probably mostly resultant of boredom, conventional scumhunting is deeply unexciting when half of my original thoughts end up at "could be scum".

the hell even is a multiball towntell?

ok, but your votes are still mostly :/

and idk what a multiball towntell is; that's why I'm really trying to divide the game into 'people I'm willing to lynch today' and 'people I'm not willing to lynch today' instead of giving out townreads.

--

pin, fumuki is reminding me a lot of you in 1859 (specifically the crazy logic that they keep pushing even though like no one agrees with them, and the hard insistence on what exactly scum would be thinking in this setup).

What do you think?

I also kinda hate that he's had like three people that he's insisted he was going to push through to a lynch and then drop the push when there's pushback.

Like he's very like loudly confident in his scumreads but when people disagree he drops back and stops pushing it. So it feels kinda blustery I guess? Idk what the right word is.

[skitter30]

I also feel like ud's votes are very hop-on-y? Like he's been pushing people already under pressure for 'reasons' that he won't explain and has often been joining the latest cool wagon with very little buildup/explanation to his votes (ie I'm talking about his vote on me and his vote on espeonage right here)

[skitter30]

I think fumuki's more likely than not town, especially given draynth, even though his posting is annoying me

Pin's a very strong townread I think.

I don't really get the esp thing still. It feels like a compromise wagon and I still don't think that anyone's sufficiently explained why he's scum. (I'm aware fumuki cased him and I think that he's scumreading playstyle differences and I don't think that his case describes scummy behavior)

--

hiya ruby. Why do you think I'm scum?

--

VOTE: ceejay

[skitter30]

I want to lynch sando but I've given up on that being a thing.

I think the duck is more likely than not scum but I don't want to lynch him today.

I don't really get the esp wagon + it feels compromise-y + I don't scumread him so like I'm not really into joining it right now. Also I kinda feel like he'd be trying more as scum tbh. I at least know where he stands on things.

I can't remember you doing anything useful this game (ie I can't pick out any of your positions/stances/pushes without re-ISO'ing you which means that I don't know what you're thinking) + pin wants it and I think he has better reads than me right now and he's the person I think is most likely town + I don't really know where else to vote right now.

So I guess I'm compromising because I dislike the other options more.

also you're like OMGUS voting me here?

[skitter30]

you

[skitter30]

pin, are you saying you think fumuki is scummy because he agreed with sando that he had pushed a bad point (ie telling people not to start new end-of-day wagons)

[skitter30]

I read your post but I'm having trouble parsing it.

>"if I'm pushed because of my change of playstyle I'll try to understand"

Where do you see this happening?

[skitter30]

I think I read what pin wrote wrong (ie i read it as a specific reaction to 1053 and not to fumuki's playsytle in general and was confused)

[skitter30]

I dont have super much time to derail this right now, so I'm just going to post my thoughts:

=> @rubyred: my feelings towards this game are roughly equivalent to how I felt about splatoon when you repped in, although that's more cuz of irl busyness and not particularly game-related like it was there. I feel like I was as invested as I usually am pre-v/la but post-v/la I've been really busy and haven't really had time for this.

=> @duckling: You went from: OMGUS voting me after I called you scummy (and I still think that doing so without *talking to me about it at all* is scum-indicative for you) (85) -> telling me I'm more reachy than normal, which I don't particularly think is a qualified statement (121) -> telling you're townreading me for behaving more like myself (411 + 443) -> saying disengagement might be scum motivated or lower activity-based (1086) -> voting me as the wagon picks up steam (1092)

Saying that me being different could either be scum-motivated or lower-activity-based (it's the latter, thank you for asking - last three weeks of the term + graduation = very very busy) and then *voting me without making any sort of attempt to figure out which it is* when you earlier said you thought I was behaving like myself is atrocious.

=> ceejay, you literally voted me because 'wtf, practically a naked vote? vote:skitter. why am I compromise vote to you?' which I feel is OMGUS. later describing the motivation as being something else doesn't change that your gut reaction to me voting you was to vote me.

more wrt 1096:

a) I can scumread people and recognize that they aren't getting lynched today and thus move my vote to a wagon I don't object to that is more likely to go through. Me sitting on a vanity wagon that literally no one agrees with doesn't accomplish anything, and I dislike that you're framing it as scummy that I switched off. Like I recognize the futility of staying and like .... I should stay anyway cuz I scumread them more even though it logistically is never happening today? That's a major waste of my vote.

b) I don't understand what you mean by 'I *know* that esp is a compromise wagon', or why you keep emphasizing the 'knowing' bit, or what that means.

c) In a vaccuum you and esp are just about equal in that I townread neither and don't really explicilty scumread either of you. In between you and esp I'd rather you cuz I know what esp's thinking about the game and I can't say that about you, and my townreads (ie pin and to a lesseer extent brass) want you and haven't been very interested in esp.

=> I think that mwnn is just trying to the end and doesn't really care about who gets wagoned. It's striking me as town but I can't articulate why right now.

========

-> Scum on-wagon(most likely to least likely): the worst, ceejay = rubyred, mwnn

how much I dislike the votes: the worst, ceejay, rubyred, mwnn

-> Scum offwagon (most likely to least likely): sando, uglyduck, ap, nm = esp, fumuki, pin

-> I'm probably a counterwagon to someone but I don't have time right now to trace how the votes changed tbh

==========

Other assorted thoughts:

-> pin's most likely town. mwnn + fumuki are lesser townreads that I'm not super comfortable with given multiball, but I feel like their slots have been townier than others so I guess I'll just put them here. (fumuki is really cuz of draynth)

-> duckling and uglyduck are never never never scum together here and it's the sort of read I'd literally bet the game on. I'm *that* confident on this.

-> I feel like scum!esp tries/cares more than he is here tbh. The case on him is stupid and I don't get the wagon on him

-> AP had a post that made me feel like he was trying to herd votes towards esp that pinged me as being off (1065). I guess what's bothering me about it is that that statement could be applied to like most of the wagons happening at that time/recently so I don't know why he focused on the esp wagon to make that comment about. I feel like he's flying super under the radar which is suspicious for him. I really can't remember him doing anything useful.

[skitter30]

blood for the duckling god

VOTE: the worst

[skitter30]

I don't undersand why you're giving me an ultimatum of 'start a new wagon or join on you esp' like those are my only two options, especially since I'm fine rejoining an existing wagon that (ie ceejay) if this doesn't become a thing.

Especially since I've repeatedly said I think your case on esp is awful so I don't know why you think I'd do that.

Also you were literally *just* shouting at people for starting a new wagon

[skitter30]

And I'm saying I don't get why you think that esp has more momentum right now than ceejay. (ie why should I vote esp over ceejay?)

The day hasn't ended yet and atm I'd rather be voting for someone I have a strong scumread on than someone I don't.

p-edit: I'd vote ceejay over esp. If it was literally me vs someone else I'd probably vote in self-survival over voting a scumread but honestly I don't know what I'd do there; I've never been in that situation so I can't tell you.

[skitter30]

the worst, your reasons for scumreading me are worryingly surface level

[skitter30]

Also why am I 'allegedly' scumreading you?

[skitter30]

VOTE COUNT - 1.14

ManWithNoName

-

skitter30

- Ruby Red, ceejayvinoya, the worst

Espeonage

- AP, UglyDuck, Fumuki, skitter30

Sando

-

the worst

- Espeonage, , Sando

ceejayvinoya

- Not_Mafia, pinturicchio, ManWithNoName

Ruby Red

-

UglyDuck

-

pinturicchio

-

Not_Mafia

-

AP

-

Fumuki

-

Not Voting

With 12 alive it takes 7 for a lynch and 6 for no lynch.
Day 1 ends in (expired on 2018-05-27 19:17:00)

[/b][/color]

I went to go check this vote count since I was pretty sure that ceejay had more votes than esp did. It isn't an accurate vote count

@mod

I was never voting espeonate.

I *really* don't udnerstand why you're framing ceejay as being less likely than esp given that if we put my vote on the right spot (ie on ceejay) ceejay is the leading wagon here.

I don't udnerstand why you're *voting me* for preferring to join a particular one of the three tied wagons (ie me/ceejay/esp are all at three votes once I moved off ceejay) over the others.

In fact, once I switched my vote, *the worst has the same number of votes as espeonage* so I don't get this like at all.

[skitter30]

Also why am I 'allegedly' scumreading you?

you don't know?

I guess that's not

super

surprising......

Duckling, you're now acting like this is a super confidant scumread that you have when it seems to have developed over the past few hours from 'me playing differently which could be attributed to being scummy or being lower activity than normal'

[skitter30]

And why are you trusting ruby's read over anyone else's?

I don't think it's fairly obvious that you're town at all. You're saying you think I should be reading you as bored and disengaged?

[skitter30]

Right, I forgot that mwnn had switched to me tbh.

So, if this is happening, scummy votes in order are: the worst, ceejay, ruby red = fumuki, mwnn and I really really want people to look at the worst tomorrow.

The esp wagon feels kinda gross though ...

[skitter30]

I guess voting in self-survival is probably a thing but like .... I don't like the options I'm being presented with

[skitter30]

I mean, I can't really do much about being irl and I don't understand why people are saying I'm being different here.

1125 is me making sure everyone knows exactly where I stand if I'm getting mislynched cuz my reads don't suck *that* bad that I think that people should ignore them altogether once I'm gone.

@ruby: can you consider what I wrote there and re-consider the duck after I flip?

I think I'm just going to continue loudly pointing out that this is a bad compromise wagon and that the duck is scum.

I don't like being coerced to join wagons that I don't' believe in tbh. I really don't think I'd do it even for self-preservation.

[skitter30]

@tw: Idk. I knew it but forgot to move him when I was looking at the vc

[skitter30]

issue: i'm still a town dude

your point?

[skitter30]

I don't get it. If I'm scum why are you willing to work with me?

--

I'm fine lynchying in {you/sando/nm/ceejay/uglyduck}. I don't really want to lynch anyone else right now I think.

p-edit: VOTE: ceejay

[skitter30]

Fine, I'll take that.

It really really really pisses me off when people ignore me once I'm gone.

[skitter30]

ok, I'll rephrase that.

You've been saying that you think I'm scum and you want to lynch me. Why are you suddenly proposing me working with you? Yes I get that you added that qualifier in that post but it doesn't change what your read is one me.

Like if you think i'm scum why would it occur to you to ask me that?

[skitter30]

people I'll be high key pissed off about lynching if you're actually town are like
you, ruby, pint and AP

pardon me for trying here. I don't understand where you think I'm super confident.

If you're town I get to say I told you so

If you're scum I get to say I told you so to everyone eles

Ideky you're asking these questions

Cuz I don't think your scumread me on is genuine.

[skitter30]

that's like "angry at myself for misreading the situation and lynching them"

skitter is so tunnelled here I actually can't see any green shining through. :/

My good dude your understanding of my scumgame is like ... non-existant lol. There's no universe where scum!me gets tunneled like this. Like tunneling is a thing that scum!me is literally incapable of faking.

K, I'm going to like do hw now.

[skitter30]

That's why I'm so confused rn. I've never seen you this bad or read a game where you're this bad. Also you keep responding to me like you know I'm town and I'm like waaaaat

so the thing is that I feel like you're interacting with *me* like you know I'm town - that's why I was bothered by when you were proposing to work with me cuz like .... that isn't a thing that you offer to do with your scumreads

--

There is scum in her wagon, I can see it throw my computer, I can smell it, I can FEEL it.

If we assume the premise that I'm town (I know that this is a tricky assumption for some of you but it becomes fact when I flip), there logistically must be scum on my theoretical lynchwagon -> there's only 7 townies and I'm one of them so of the seven people on a lynchwagon on a townie at least one is scum.

It's less of a question of 'is there scum' and more a question of 'how many scum and who is it'

reminder, I think scum on my wagon is (in order):

the worst, ceejay, ruby red, mwnn, fumuki

if we want to throw in sando cuz he said he'd lynch me over cj:

the worst = sando, ceejay, ruby red, mwnn, fumuki

I was kinda surprised that uglyduck doesn't want to lynch me; I was expecting him to hop on tbh.

mwnn's townread is wobbling given that his lynchpool basically seems to be the leading wagons - I feel like he doesn't care who gets lynched.

[skitter30]

Eeehhh
I flatly refuse to believe we had 0 scumfucks on this wagon.

who wants to put some bets on there being two? ^^

Theres only seven townies in the game total, and esp flipped town, and there were 7 people in his wagon. That means at most 6 of them can be town; there must be scum on the wagon.

From the PoV of town off the wagon, there must be at least two scum on there.

I don't think that ceejay is ever partners with pin given that last vc and how that was pin's preferred lynch yesterday. He might be a wolf but I'm pretty sure he never flips scum here.

I think I want to do this VOTE: AP . I dislike the way he interacted with the wagon. Or, more accurately, I dislike the way he *didn't* interact with the wagon.

He voted because mwnn asked him too, and literally never mentioned a scumread on him before that. He actually only mentions him like eight times this game before he votes him at all (in the context of previous games and his joke readslist of post like 11).

Two hundred posts later, he asks this:

Why exactly are we probing every other player to see if we can save Espeo?? I mean, the way the wagon froze and started to dissipate makes me feel Espeo is Mafia (they have more influence through numbers over WWs).

I don't see why he's against the notion of people 'saving esp' given that he never expresses a scumread on him, visibly tried to sort him, or even interacted with him once.

He's talking like he's decided that the esp wagon is best and that its scummy that people aren't voting him, but there's no justification for this stance in his ISO anywhere.

He doesn't even in weigh in on fumuki pushing a wagon that he's on. Like he doesn't back him up or support him or interact with fumuki's esp push at all.

And then like when esp' at l-1 he chimes in with some bad pre-flips pre-supposing that esp is scum and looking for partners.

I don't think he actually felt any sort of real conviction abt the esp wagon. The way he interacted with it is not the way someone interacts with a wagon on someone they're scumreading.

[skitter30]

I think fumuki is probably town despite the esp thing. The esp thing was still asinine though.

[skitter30]

OK, if you really want me to go one by one through the times you mentioned him, obtained by ctrl+f in your iso for 'esp' and ignoring the hits for the word 'respond' or 'especially':

Spoiler:

Reads so far:

ManWithNoName -Town
skitter30 -Mafia
Espeonage -Town
Sando -Werewolf
the worst -Town
ceejayvinoya -Mafia
TheYankeeReaper -Town
UglyDuck -Werewolf
pinturicchio -Town
Not_Mafia -Mafia
Draynth -Town

Important:

If I got your alignment right; please confirm in the thread.

You slightly change this readslist like two posts later.

Current lynch pool: Espeonage/UglyDuck/pinturicchio/Draynth

Reason: LAL (Lynch all LURKERS)

It's been more than 2 hours (two and a half even) and they still haven't posted. (One thing I've learnt from Dr Evil is..

vote: the worst

That feels like a real slip btw.

What does?

He shows up a couple of times in a readslist containing him that someone *else* posted but you don't talk about the esp read.

Oh yeah he always replaces out. That's just his thing. Who was the scumteam that involved bussing in the last jungle republic?

viewtopic.php?p=10046408#p10046408

Espeonage bussed the shit out of A50

That's literally every hit in your ISO before you voted him.

AP, you should join the Espeonage wagon, 2/3 of it is town. Let's make it a straight 75%

VOTE: Espeonage

Still not caught up though, and my internet (or my PC) is shitty.

Sando, Furnuki, the worst, UD and someone are all the bad people.

cj and skitter are not that last slot.

THAT AVATAR!

I was like.. why is tw calling himself scum? Is it sarcasm? And then I realized it wasn't tw's post!

Why exactly are we probing every other player to see if we can save Espeo?? I mean, the way the wagon froze and started to dissipate makes me feel Espeo is Mafia (they have more influence through numbers over WWs).

And then the end-of-day post too.

I don't have a set number of times I expect someone to mention someone else, but I do expect that you perform some sort of cursory analysis on the person you're voting for, if not before you vote them, than at least after. (and not like two hundred posts later to justify your vote that has no standing).

And to literally not interact with the wagon in any of it's incarnations despite being on it, and to have made literally no attempt to sort him, is sketchy as fuck.

Also you're defending against the point 'I'm complaining that you didn't mention him a lot before you voted him'. My actual argument is that 'I think you should have talked about him in some sort of analytic fashion and/or demonstrated that you had tried to sort him if you were going to sit on his wagon for much of the day'.

Like you're defending against the *quantity* of the number of times you mentioned him. My argument is actually about the quantity *and* quality of the times you talked about him.

(Hint: You feel too disengaged for my liking, which is not like you at all).

college + graduation + this nasty project I'm working on that's eating much of my spare time + sleeping occasionally. I've said this already. It has literally nothing to do with my alignment.

our #1242 though almost confirms my suspicions.

why? what's scum-indcative of 1242? You're just throwing shade by saying that it indicates I'm scummy but you've failed to explain why or how.

But before I jump on you I want you to explain whether you think I'm a WW or a Mafioso (Hint: I'm neither, but feel free to present an argument for me being either). Then I will reevaluate my read on you.

a) you settled for saying that I'm either/or so idk why you want me to have to choose between you being a wolf/mafioso

b) honestly have no idea. I don't think you have signifcant associatives with pin beyond you saying 'I'm townreading you but dislike some of your votes'. I can see you saying that as both a partner and not a parter. I haven't seen much else in your behavior that is more indicative of one or the other, beyond that I think you're being generally scummy.

c) you played with me in the last iteration of jungle republic and me saying I thought you/thor were partners contributed to the loss for town. I was right on each of you individually, but I was wrong on the partner bit. After you flipped people were percieving thor as scum because of me going on and on and on about it and esp was deliberately playing up that angle and that's what led to the town lynch day4 which ultimately won scum the game.

Given that context, why would I ever want to do the same thing here? Like I see no purpose in trying to specifically read you as one or the other cuz doing so fucked over the gamestate last time. You know this and your faction *took advantage of me doing this to win* last time so I have no idea why you're pressing me to come to some sort of conclusion here.

[skitter30]

I've also stated argument for both, so you can do the same if you want to.

I don't have an opinion either way

I am trying to see where you're coming from with your push on me to see if you might actually be this mislead as town. The thing is this isn't the first time you play me and you know I play in different styles, so I'm not convinced your reasoning for scum reading me is "he doesn't talk much about the guy he is voting".

For the second time, you're stripping away the nuance from my argument.

I'm not saying 'he doesn't talk much about the game he's voting'.

I'm saying 'he made no effort to sort or interact with the guy he was voting or with the wagon in a general sense. You can see this happening in that he literally didn't talk about him in a game-related context until 200 posts after he voted him'.

If you think this is a bad argument, tell me where I'm going wrong, and stop defending against an argument that I'm not making.

but

I also had expressed

that his lurking didn't bode well with me, and I know Esp is usually more active than this)

No, you didn't talk about him lurking at any point in the game (I'm not counting 38 for obvious reasons)

Then I did confirm why I was pivoted on the wagon when it stalled. You don't usually have 3-4 other counter wagons proposed (one after one) when the main wagon is on a town player, and especially so when that Town player hasn't been active enough nor has done much to show his towniness.

right, and my point is that instead of just sitting on the wagon and trying to herd votes towards esp you could have, like, tried to sort him at some point.

[skitter30]

I think I want to do this VOTE: AP . I dislike the way he interacted with the wagon. Or, more accurately, I dislike the way he *didn't* interact with the wagon.

He voted because mwnn asked him too, and literally never mentioned a scumread on him before that. He actually only mentions him like eight times this game before he votes him at all (in the context of previous games and his joke readslist of post like 11).

Do you see MWNN/AP as partners?

I have no idea who AP partners might be right now

[skitter30]

The competing wagons yesterday were me/esp/cj.

Esp's town, and I know I'm town, and I kinda doubt that all three of me/cj/esp are town, so that's kinda suggestive to me that cj might be a wolf. (specificlaly a wolf because he's never scum with pin here I think.)

1065 seems to be encouraging votes on esp while the cj wagon was ~L-2 and had some momentum, so I can see ap/cj being a thing.

I've seen nothing to indicate that ap/mwnn is a thing, and I've seen nothing to rule that out.

I do'nt really have an opinion on ruby red right now.

[skitter30]

ok so vote him

why isn't ap scum with pin here?

[skitter30]

wait... why am i skummy exactly? Is it not more likely ceejay gets two votes to Open the day and then I pick up making ceejay skummy?

Also like 99% tw is skum so gonna go there

VOTE: theworst

Can you say this again? I don't understand what you mean

[skitter30]

@mod please replace me. Sorry guys, having a bit of a personal crisis of sorts and I just can't bring myself to play games right now. See you all in another game.

I hope things get better <3

[skitter30]

wait... why am i skummy exactly? Is it not more likely ceejay gets two votes to Open the day and then I pick up making ceejay skummy?

Also like 99% tw is skum so gonna go there

VOTE: theworst

Can you say this again? I don't understand what you mean

I think he says I'm scummier than him and I should be the one getting wagoned right now. Not him. Poor duck.

I don't know why he's assuming that you in particular should be getting wagoned instead of him, and I don't know why he's voting the duckling if he thinks that we ought to be wagoning you.

[skitter30]

wait... why am i skummy exactly? Is it not more likely ceejay gets two votes to Open the day and then I pick up making ceejay skummy?

Also like 99% tw is skum so gonna go there

VOTE: theworst

Can you say this again? I don't understand what you mean

I think he says I'm scummier than him and I should be the one getting wagoned right now. Not him. Poor duck.

Well considering everyone is skummier than me imo - yes. By my point was more based on VCA and common sense. You seem to be an alright canadite, a wagon starts to form, followed by imidiate larger counter wagon on me. Since the whole 3 faction thing not as solid as a point as i would like it to be but i still think that just based off of the votes so far ceejay flip would be very revealing.
So yeah - if anyone wants to go TW lmk but until then,

VOTE: Ceejay

Whoops, I hadn't read this far when I wrote my last post.

I guess what I'm confused about is why you're talking like you think you're ceejay's cw when your vote here is the only ceejay vote this phase.

[skitter30]

BTW for the record I agree AP is obvscum and probably??? never scum with Pintu so I'm keen on the ww!AP theory

OBVSCUM?? And A WEREWOLF?? So you really think that I would lynch Town and shoot Mafia at night as a werewolf?? The worst part is you've been scum with me and KNOW how I pick my NKs.

This post pings me kinda bad. I don't know how to articulate what's wrong with it rn super well.

It's almost like you're focusing too much on being called out for being a potential wolf and not on the fact that he's scumreading you in general. It doesn't jive well with you pressing me to pick a specific faction for you - I kinda feel like you have defenses for why you don't make sense as one faction or the other on the basis that you never making these choices as a wolf or as scum, but not for you acting scummy in a general sense.

I also feel like you did something similar last game as scum. I'm going to check when I have a chance later.

I don't know if I expressed this point well so if doesn't make sense lmk and I'll try again, maybe after I've slept a bit.

[skitter30]

So I'm not super convinced that he's getting lynched today given that nobody else is voting him, or expressed willingness to vote him.

[skitter30]

Now with one mafia died, we can relax a bit because we probably gained one more lynch opportunity before endgamed, but of course, my target today...is a blue flip.

"WHO WOULD KILL PINTU IS THE QUESTION?", LADIES AND GENTLEMAN

Was Pintu killed because he was a scum read, a PR read, or because not mattering his alignment, they felt threatened by him?

Okay, I have given up for the time being in writing long analysis posts, see you guys afterwards.

Oh, and...well...it's really a surprise to realize that a certain someone...isn't dead yet.

For the time being maybe I will do this, explanations afterwards:

VOTE: skitter30

Are you trying to argue that I'm the wolf that shot pin? Or that I'm suspicious for not dying last night?

You do realize that shooting pin is literally the worst shot wolf!me could have made last night and that I'd have to be either really dumb or completely ignorant about the gamestate to ever think that was a good idea here, right?

[skitter30]

Either way, I can't really tell why you think I'm scummy or why you're voting me.

[skitter30]

@Fumuki m'love AP is our blue flip...... Who is his buddy and who are the last two scum?

I really really don't get why you're heavily advocating for an AP flip and helping me campaign for votes there *without voting there yourself*

[skitter30]

suuuuuuuuupp

Hi!

[skitter30]

I'm not advocating for a quicklynch?

I'm just like trying to create some sort of wagon given that nobody seems to be signifcantly townreading AP atm as far as I can tell, and nobody has objected to my case except for AP himself but like votes aren't happening.

Like a lot of people are saying they're scumreading him but aren't voting there.

[skitter30]

Actually I picked up on that at the end of day1 at some point and that why I kept on saying I didn't want to lynch you even though I was scumreading you. I didn't put together that you may have checked AP last night though

[skitter30]

So yeah I explicitly believe that and I'm dumb for not realizing that you checked him

You're good at making yourself scumread when you want to lol

I remember you saying you were doing something similar in the Noir deadthread and I eventually put together that that's might be what was going on so I dropped the trying to lynch you bit even though I was scumreading you. I wasn't sure if it was PR or scum thing.

[skitter30]

But before I jump on you I want you to explain whether you think I'm a WW or a Mafioso (Hint: I'm neither, but feel free to present an argument for me being either). Then I will reevaluate my read on you.

That explains this bit a lot actually and why you kept pressing me to pick one or the other.

You probably were trying to gauge if *I* was the seer who had checked you last night given that my first post was casing you.

[skitter30]

yeah ... you kept saying that and I was like ???? cuz I'm doing the exact same thing I usually do when I was around so I didn't get why you were reading me so differently

sorry for making it hard :/

Once I realized what was going on I tried to back off though

[skitter30]

CJ's still my best bet for an AP partner based on wagonomics from day1 but I'm not sure if he hops on as the second vote in the wagon I'm pushing then?

p-edit: one of your posts was basically a soft-claim iirc and yeah so that's why I jumped off at some point

[skitter30]

"I'm today's lynch 0% of the time" was a leaf out of Noir, silent prayer to you and sando

Agreed CJV has a lot of ww equity rn

Yeah it was that one specifically.

I think the duck is more likely than not scum

but I don't want to lynch him today

.

But we need AP to find us the mafia before we string him up because he's outstanding and I'd rather keep ww alive than mafia

-> I think since we have one mafia down we want to prioritize lynching wolves right now.

But I guess that tonight is a guaranteed town death so if we lynch AP today we're at 1:2:5 (wolf, scum, town) tomorrow. Whereas if we lynch scum today we're at 2:1:5 (wolf, scum, town) tomorrow with a known wolf that we can lynch whenever.

But if we lynch town today we're at 2:2:4 which makes me very uncomfortable and the game is like in perpetual l/mylo iirc.

Actually if we don't lynch AP maybe you're not dead tonight? Wolves can't kill you without confirming you and your result so AP gets auto-lynched once you die.

-> Not sure if Ap is going to want to help us find mafia today though

@AP I'm pretty sure it's in your best interest though? Like your faction is down one member as soon as the duck is dead and you don't want to endgame to mafia anymore than town does.

p-edit yeah I guess you're going to be sticking with voting the duck today

[skitter30]

@tw do you think sando can be maf?

[skitter30]

I think you might die anyways despite trying to leash him though. They might just say fuck it and kill you after AP doesn't get lynched today. Like I don't know what their incentive is for keeping you alive.

It also depends on who his partner is cuz they don't have daytalk

[skitter30]

um that's kinda what I was thinking too wrt nm

[skitter30]

Sando/uglyduck have interesting associatives from early game (especially wrt the 'do mafia have nks' bit)

I'll go back and check ap's iso for partners later but I need to be productive irl now!

[skitter30]

Are both wolves on yesterday's lynch wagon though?

Yeah ok I'm really done for now and I'll check back in a few hours when I need a break

[skitter30]

I expected to die too but I was comfortable enough with {fumuki, ruby, Sando, skitter} being town or maf and frankly you guys are the only ones liable to pick up on my current tpr meta tells. AP knows me fairly well but not THAT well, plus I was very lynchable this time. I'm getting better at it.

So basically you think that none of these people are wolves because they'd have picked up on the softs and you'd be very very dead?

That limits the pool down to: pine, not_mafia, uglyduck, cj.

I'd rank them as most to least likely: not_mafia (his tw/uglyduck vote) > cj (wagonomics from day 1) >>>> ud >> pine

--

Actually if we don't lynch AP maybe you're not dead tonight? Wolves can't kill you without confirming you and your result so AP gets auto-lynched once you die.

I think I love you just for this post.

Sando/uglyduck have interesting associatives from early game (especially wrt the 'do mafia have nks' bit)

This makes me love you less.

Was it the red gem saying D1 that skitter being bad town equals scum? Cause this^ is bad town.

a) actually I rethought the top bit. I think that tw gets killed tonight irregardless of whether ap gets lynched today. AP's pretty much a dead man walking imo at this point, and not killing tw tonight doesn't really change that, so they aren't really incentivized to keep him alive.

I mean I'm willing to talk about the general notion of leashing him on the condition that tw stays alive tonight and that he's auto-lynched tomorrow if tw dies, but like, I don't really think wolves are particularly incentivized to go along with that plan so I'm probably not willing to risk it.

b) the fact that you keep on trying to point me away from the ud/sando associatives kinda makes me think that there might be something there

c) I don't particularly consider ruby red qualified to meta me.

People in this game I consider qualified to meta me to some extent: tw, pin, ap, maybe esp

(that's partially why it was tilting me so much that tw was scumreading me because I know he can read me well)

I only played like one game with ruby red and I don't consider that game to particularly epitomize my towngame in a general sense.

[skitter30]

can someone please tell me specifically who "Fuggo" is?

pretty sure you

[skitter30]

a) Yeah he will almost definitely die tonight, especially after a Mafia kill last night, but meh, it's still better to lynch elsewhere imo.

b) the fact that you don't address the issue with it from yesterday makes me think that I'm right and you're bad at this

c) I never said he was, I had this discussion with him late D1, I'm inviting him to comment further on it if he'd like

a) and the benefits to lynching elsewhere today are ... ?

b) I don't know what issue you're referring to? Can you link me or something cuz idk what you're talking abt

c) you were trying to make the argument that that post makes me look like bad town, and that according to ruby when it looks like I"m bad town I'm scum. I'm just pointing out that I don't think his opinion is particularly relevant here given that I don't think he has that meta on me.

[skitter30]

I'm just pointing out that I don't think his meta-based opinion is particularly relevant here given that I don't think he has that meta on me.

ebwop

[skitter30]

Whoops, sorry ruby.

Yeah that works for me. I'll unvote if the wagon gets close to a lynch so that the day doesn't end before we're ready.

[skitter30]

Well AP is voting him for obvious reasons.

And NM voted TW after AP did which is like ???? and why I'm thinking he may be a wolf. He's since switched his vote to uglyduck. But even so I'm not sure what wolf!nm hopes to gain out of voting the claimed seer - it kinda inextricably ties him to AP which kinda ought *not* to be wolf!nm's goal.

I don't think there are other votes on him right now

p-edit: I didn't read the sando post yet

[skitter30]

I mean we're gonna be in this position tomorrow, why rush to lynch AP now?

because there's a guilty on him? If there's no benefit to delaying I don't see why we don't just lynch him? Like if AP isn't lynched today I still think that TW almost always gets killed here -> I think the wolves will find it more beneficial to just let AP go than to let TW have another night to get a result.

That reminds me - hard-bussing maybe wolf indicative? Not sure.

b) Sando 169 has my original mocking of the idea that we're on the same team running the exact same gambit, along with my mocking the idea that we're both scum but different factions. I for some reason though the factions were "scum" and "WW" at that point, hence my first point, which looks silly from me.

Right, and my response to that at that time was that I found it more odd/concerning that you were answering for uglyduck there and that your explanation included him. I pointed this out a few times and you never really responded to that.

I guess my specific problem with this is that you're saying 'we both assumed it due to the role PMs not mentioning it', when UD hasn't said anything of the sort so like .... how do you know that's what he assumed? Like why are you explaining his thought process for him?

Like the actual confusion over the role PMs bit I didn't find to be particularly interesting or parter-indicative or not-partner-indicative; it was more the aftermath that I had a problem with.

wrt ruby red I misread what you were trying to say with your original post and I get it now.

[skitter30]

UNVOTE:

Cuz that's l-1, the duck wants to drag out the day, and nm is off-wagon

[skitter30]

I'll respond to stuff later

[skitter30]

Lynch UD today. If he flips Mafia then I will shoot tw and tomorrow it's 1-1-6. That is VERY good for the town.

Isn't it 2W:1M:5T tomorrow?

[skitter30]

I'm kinda too tired to think through all the possible outcomes so I don't have an opinion right now.

[skitter30]

On a very very very cursory level I think I'm OK with it but I don't want to commit to that till I've had some sleep.

Also I feel like you not wanting to shoot NM is maybe partner indicative but you might just be saying that to make us think that so idk.

Were you thinking I was the seer at daystart?

[skitter30]

tw do you still think cj is a viable AP partner? I"m not sure if he hops on after I pushed AP but before you outed the guilty as a partner, especially in a setup without daytalk. Also the posting on page 57 doesn't feel partner-y to me

--

So we can sort the rest.

What sort out the 1 wolf and

1 mafia

that don’t know who each other are after a guilty has been claimed? Like what... they Are gonna mess up now on a day when we “have a result”?

What is it that needs sorting out?

There are two mafia left?

I'm trying to decide if you're like trying to fake a slip with that or something

--

Lynch UD. If he flips town I shoot someone of tw's choice. That's also fair enough bc if I hit a Mafioso we are 2-1-5 tomorrow, and if I hit a townie that's 2-2-4, but I'm tomorrow's lynch anyway AND the duckling gets to deliver one more result on who is/isn't a WW.

OK I guess I'm a little bit skeptical that you'll actually go along with this plan - if you don't you'll get autolynched tomorrow, but you're getting autolynched tomorrow anyways if we go through with this plan so I'm not sure why it benefits you tonight to shoot tw's pick.

Like if town keeps up their end of the bargain and agrees to lynch you tomorrow instead of today, there's no reason why you can't just break the bargain tonight irregardless of what ud flips since you're getting lynched tomorrow anyways.

Numberwise I think it works out but I don't see why you're incentivized to actually go along with it

but tw thinks you're trustworthy in this regard and he's the one who's dead if you don't go along with it so I guess I'll just let him decide if he's comfortable with it or not.

Actually, if ud is town, we're 2w:2m:5t tonight. if you shoot a townie, we're 2w:2maf:4t tomorrow. you get lynched. at the end of day3 it's 1w:2m:4t. If a townie gets shot night3, it's 1w:2m:3t day4, which makes me kinda uncomfortable. the game is basically perpetually mylo at that point.

--

fumuki's still town

--

If you lynch me, whatever do it, just lynch TW tomorrow.

You know you're suggesting lynching the seer, right?

And the prob AP. And then if skitter is alive.. skitter.

'and then I'm

alive

' -> is this like supposed to imply that you think I ought to be nk'd at some point and that if I'm not I'm scum? In this setup that would be wolf indicative, but the notion that I'm a wolf in this game is literally laughable.

--

1) TW claims Seer, but then Not Mafia Counter Claims him? Kind of... like I guess that is question #1 I find it hard to take NM seriously so is that just like sarcasm/joke or are they actually claiming?

he's meming

wrt point 3 - your logic doesn't make sense. tw can't be shot overnight if he's a wolf. if you flip mafia, ww!ap will shoot seer!tw and the game will be 2w:1m:5t tomorrow with ap getting lynched tomorrow. day4 it would either be 1w:1m:4 town or 1w:5town depending on who got shot night 3 after ap gets lynched.

I feel like you're more worried about the wolves being alive day4 than mafia being alive day4. I'm more worried about the 1w:2m:3t situation because mafia have a fairly advantage number-wise and can herd votes the way they want to with the numbers more easily

ok I'll pick up at page 61 tomorrow

[skitter30]

tw do you still think cj is a viable AP partner? I"m not sure if he hops on after I pushed AP but before you outed the guilty as a partner, especially in a setup without daytalk. Also the posting on page 57 doesn't feel partner-y to me

tbh I think this is a good take
kinda starting to think CJV = town

I think theres a fairly limited pool of people who can even be the last wolf:

AP: wolf

Tw: seer

Me:

Uglyduck: not a wolf given that ap wants his head today

Fumuki, ruby red, sando: tw would probably have been dreaded last night

Cj: doubt he's a wolf given the above

So I'm basically down to pine and not_mafia as being the last wolf on straight poe.

[skitter30]

Fumuki, ruby red, sando: tw would probably have been dreaded last night

I'll give you the benefit of the doubt for last night, but if you're considering me as WW still then your powers of deduction need serious work.

Honestly I tend to see ruby's point by now.

I don't think I said or implied anywhere that I thought you were a wolf? In fact, you're quoting me saying I think you aren't.

I just compiled in one place reasoning for why most of the game doesn't make sense as wolves imo, and why on poe I'm down to nm or pine.

[skitter30]

So we can sort the rest.

What sort out the 1 wolf and 1 mafia that don’t know who each other are after a guilty has been claimed? Like what... they Are gonna mess up now on a day when we “have a result”?

What is it that needs sorting out?

Wtf I don't get this 1 mafia thing is this a scumslip

I think he might be trying to fake a township, actually

[skitter30]

Also is TW is lying then real seer needs to keep the hell shut until 1-1-X.

I don't get why you think tw is lying

[skitter30]

I thought nm was trolling tbh. I don't really think anyone took his cc seriously in any sense

like I think it's fairly blatant that tw is seer and that nm is, like, not

and I think AP thinks TW is the seer, which is pretty much what's important here

scum don't have daychat in this setup

ftr I think you asking that might be you trying to fabricate a townslip

[skitter30]

Off my wagon I think Sando+skitter are town (Mafia would not support my plan) and I;m leaning town on Ruby by PoE

@Ruby/skitter: time to make a stance. Am I today's lynch or not? Let me do a run down of the "deal" here:

I mean, I'm only offwagon because it was L-1 and nm wasn't on it and tw wasn't ready to end the day.

4- If we lynch UD/Fumuki and they flip town I will shoot "not tw", hunting for Mafia

So, worst case scenario is 2 town flips (lynch and NK) resulting in a 2-2-4 tomorrow, but with an outed wolf and a "not a WW" result (because if tw gets the other wolf that scenario is not the worst (pun certainly intended)

I guess I'm just a little bit worried to trust you to shoot for mafia here, and not just hit tw.

And even if you do uphold your half of the bargain and aim for mafia, you might be wrong and hit town anyways, and then in that worst case scenario day4 it could be down to 1w:2m:3t depending on who gets shot tomorrow night, and that makes me nervous, because town's in perpetual m/lylo until the game ends.

So I personally think I'd rather just lynch the guilty and not play around with shenanigans.

But I'm also not the one who's getting shot tonight or tomorrow presumably, so I don't think it's really up to me, and I'll do whatever tw wants.

[skitter30]

I want to lynch Ruby Red for calling this out. I was going to out this obvious gambit tomorrow, but NM was clearly trying to bait the kill away from TW. That's why he's Town, and why I was trying to support the gambit.

It wouldn't work against any of the more pro players, but...no offense to anyone, but there's some newbies and lowbies in this game.

I mean, did you really think that was what he was doing? I thought it was blatantly obvious he was trolling, and I don't think that *anyone* in this game thought nm's cc was remotely believable. Like I'm not sure why you think it's townie of him to do this given that I don't think *anyone* thought it was a real cc.

[skitter30]

OK, I think you might be trying to indicate that you're not familiar with the knowledge scum has about the setup in order to distance yourself from them. Better?

[skitter30]

If it isn't AP I want it to be one of {UD/Sando/Pine/NM}.

[skitter30]

I mean, I'll do my best. I think I might eat a ml at some point though tbh

[skitter30]

TW if we lynch AP you give us your final reads?

[skitter30]

I really do think that it's better just to lynch the guilty.

My best bet for a partner is one of {pine/nm}

[skitter30]

I kinda think that the partner is bussing him right now

[skitter30]

I think that UD is almost for sure some flavor of scum, but never with AP, so that points to mafia.

I still think sando is a viable UD partner (yes I'm aware that you don't think it's likely, but I've already explained why I don't think that your defense is particularly strong)

If NM isn't a wolf he could be scum

Pine is my second-best bet for a wolf

I'm really not comfortable calling rubyred town here. I have no idea what flavor of scum they'd be. I suppose since I have like no townreads they can be probationary town on PoE or something.

I don't think cj is an ap partner, and he's never scum with pintu like ever, so I guess he can be town too

fumuki is still probably town.

pine and sando are never partners here

-------

Okay, AP, I have a plan. I's a good one, too.

We tell everyone that it's a full moon tonight and the moon is about to come up. Then, we watch the reactions of everyone here. If someone seems nervous and starts trying to get out, we lynch them.

What do you think?

Given that Ap is a werewolf, this is actually a really weird post in retrospect

OK, serious read.. duckling is town

So far I've pegged 3 townies with some degree of confidence: Pintu, MWNN & tw

Next..

AP and I have a mental connection at this point because this is also my town block. If I was about 20 years older, I'd guess we were twins separated at birth.

I'm also giving UglyDuck a probationary membership into my townblock based on the word of a full member of my townblock, though.

Do partners say this?

[skitter30]

I haven't?

What are you talking about?

I've been saying I want AP lynched today the whole time

[skitter30]

Again why did you focus on the bit about UD ???

[skitter30]

Did you like not read the qualifier or something?

'If it isn't AP' -> AP is still my ideal choice. If tw does'nt want to lynch him, I'm fine with any of those people, because I think they're scum. I think that TW should decide how the lynch goes today cuz he's the one dead tonight if we don't get with AP's plan. But I've been personally advocating for an AP lynch literally the whole day. If anything, you've been advocating pushing off lynching him tomorrow while I argued against you that the AP lynch should happen today, so I have no idea what you'er talking about.

In the context of AP's plan, mafia would be the alternative lynch, and I think that's you/UD. I still think lynching a wolf is better today - AP + one of {pine/nm}

I list a pool of four people, so again, why are you acting like I'm specifically pushing UD when I didn't specify which one I preferred.

I don't get where or why I'm floundering.

I've loudly and repeatedly said that I don't think his plan is optimal but that I think that the worst ought to decide.

And are you seriously positing that I'm a wolf here?

[skitter30]

I feel like you're going to have a long response to that - I need to do more hw now but I'll check back in a few hours

[skitter30]

OK, for me to be a wolf, I'd have to:

-> not kill the seer that I identified yesterday

-> start the day casing my partner and try to start a wagon on him (*before* the seer outed a guilty on him)

-> chide the suspected seer (who incidentally has a guilty on my partner) for not voting my partner

-> side with the seer when he wants to lynch my partner

-> loudly go against my partner's plan wrt him not getting lynched today

This makes sense for me to do because ... ?

--

Another person listed as me, and following logic I'm also clearly not wolf here. So that's 50% right there that you think we should potentially lynch if AP

isn't the option who are very unlikely to flip wolf, as anyone looking at this with any degree of reasoning would conclude. That's a bad outcome for town.

I don't know what the bolded means.

TW wants to do AP's plan. Under that plan we want to hit mafia today. Imo that's you or UD. Are you trying to defend UD not being scum on the basis that you're not or something?

You're trying to argue that I'm pushing anti-town things by supporting this plan. This isn't true. I don't think this plan is optimal, and I said that multiple times. I don't want to do it. I want to lynch the guilty. I *also* think that TW gets the final decision cuz he's the one dead tonight if we hit mafia today, and if *he* wants to do this, those are my picks.

I don't actually want to do this.

I feel like you're either not understanding this nuance or deliberately not understanding this nuance.

I'm advocating for lynching the guilty but I think that TW should get to decide and if he doesn't want to do that, those are the people I think have the best bet for flipping mafia. If we want to lynch non-AP wolves, I think that's NM or Pine.

You're not using reasoning based on the information before you. It's either townie refusing to adjust their thinking, or it's scum looking to take advantage of the situation. D

ue to the refusal of you to even acknowledge that lynching people who are basically conf!not-wolf is a bad idea for town here is telling me it's scum motivated rather than town.

I've acknowledged that it's bad for town like six billion times; I have no idea where you're getting this from. It's like all over my ISO; I think that not-lynching the wolf puts town in a potentially bad position day4.

I don't know how else to say that. I want to lynch the guilty. I think that tw gets to decide who we should lynch though and if he wants mafia that would be you or UD. I don't actually want to do that.

[skitter30]

Wrt MWNN probably not, he doesn't like scum. Was just moon logic.

VOTE: AP sorry buddy the tribe has spoken

No I'm pretty sure that's hammer

[skitter30]

HE WANTS TO LYNCH WEREWOLVES BUT IN OTHER POSTS CALL PEOPLE TRYING TO LYNCH AP SCUMMY

TO THE FUCK WITH YOU ALL TOWN

HOW YOU FRICKING DOESN'T NOTICE THAT

THE DAY THAT I FLIP TOWN IS THE DAY THAT YOU FUCKING LYNCH THE HELL OUT OF SANDO THAT HAS THE SAME PINTU'S CONNECTIVES THAT UD HAS

I CAN ONLY POKERFACE OR SCUM READ ANYONE TOWN READING THIS

I mean, I wrote a long post pointing out the fact that he's calling me scummy for wanting to lynch wolves today, even though that's what he wants to do himself.

I kinda believe he's purposefully misunderstanding my stance tbh.

Also I've been pointing out the pin/sando/ud connection for a while.

I guess I'm just a little bit worried to trust you to shoot for mafia here, and not just hit tw.

That hurts. My consolation is you don't know me that well.

Sorry

I'm just suspicious of plans that seem to-good-to-be-true proposed by scum when I don't see a reason why they'd be incentivized to keep their half.

Which I appreciate that you speak these kind towny words of me - as I know I am Town, and you only know I am Town if you are skum, and I am just playing like... the skummiest skum that ever skummed. you are probably skum.

Also, the fact that "you have pegged skum" is actually in it's own skummy. For the same concepts.

I don't know what any of is this means or what you're trying to say here.

You seem to think I'm townreadinf you? I'm not saying that I think you're town; I think you're probably mafia. Also in multiball its kinda impossible for anyone to know the alignment of anyone else (barring scum knowing who their partners are). Like even if I was scum I wouldn't know if you were town or opposing-scum.

Also I don't know what you're referring to by 'you have pegged scum'

[skitter30]

with all the "lol scum for sure in the wagon so i'm not in the wagon and we should lynch people in the wagon" thing, added with the fact that I'm bored of the shitshow, I'm willing to compromise in lynching myself if that means lynching Sando next day.

I really think that compromise lynches are a horrific idea in this game; town has a fairly thin margin of error to win and we don't have a lot of mislynches.

Like I think this is an awful idea for roughly the same reasons why lynching esp was an awful idea. Also I don't think that sando gets auto-lynched after you.

[skitter30]

Also we've been in twilight since like Sunday, right?

[skitter30]

Ok, again, explain why you think I'm the wolf here. Like, how does my behavior actually match up with what you think wolves would have been doing throughout the game?

You need to explain why tw wasn't dead n1 and why wolf!me decided to hard bus my partner out of the blue *before* there was a guilty on him.

[skitter30]

Well, I don't think the UD is ever a wolf here given that AP tried to get him lynched instead of him; I agree that he's more likely mafia than town though.

I think that the most likely candidates for a wolf are probably you or NM.

Aren't we on day3 right now?

I think that if we mislynch today/tomorrow wolves are incentivized to go maf hunting so that they don't get endgamed by scum. That doesn't mean that they'll actual find them though, so yeah, we need to be wary of that worst-case scenario. Also in 3-2-1 it seems to be pretty hard for town to get a lynch because they basically need 4/6 votes to lynch and theres only three of them and three factions with different goals jostling for their preferred lunch. So I really don't want to mislynch today, and I think ideally we want to find the wolf.

Aside, I'm pretty sure pin's ISO antispews fumuki as scum.

[skitter30]

Given that every player has done something that doesn't really make sense as AP partner we have to give credit to that person and we can't explain all actions as being wolf motivated. So we have to look at the preponderance of evidence.

The evidence against you is your play around APs claim yesterday. You didn't join the AP wagon which would be either thoughtful town or wolf, since town+mafia are going to want confirmed wolf killed. That leaves this particular tell as pointing towards you, Ruby and myself. I know I'm not scum, and I think I'm particularly anti-wolf, and between you and Ruby I think Ruby expressed a better grasp of the dynamics yesterday, indicating it's more likely thoughtful town from them.

I was the first fucking person on the wagon

I was pushing it *before* the seer outed the guilty. I chided the seer for *not* joining the wagon I was pushing. How is that partner indicative? The *only* reason why I left the wagon was because it was L-1 and NM was off it and tw didn't want the day to end yet (you have a lot of experience with NM lolhammering, right? Does Noir ring any bells?).

You're telling me that I'm a partner because of my play around AP's claim in very broad terms. How exactly is any of the above partner-indicative? Not only that, you're misrepresenting what actually happened (saying that I didn't join the wagon when I *started it*) and are broadly pushing a narrative but can't explain how my behavior actually matches the narrative you're pushing. You're ignoring the fact that you're narrative has little relationship to what I've actually done this game.

The most charitable way I can view you misrepping me like this is that you literally haven't been reading the game ... but you haven't displayed ignorance like this about the gamestate before, which makes it kinda hard to believe that this is what's happening here.

I've found the 'dumb or scum' tell works fairly decently on players that don't seem dumb in a general sense tbh.

--

1653 is incredibly survivalistic. Also there's 8 players right now; of the 7 players other than yourself, three of them are scum. Why would you proxy your vote to popular vote when 3/7 of the game besides yourself are scum?

Instead of defending yourself and trying to find ways to make people more likely to keep you alive, why aren't you looking for scum right now?

VOTE: uglyduck

I'm kinda ambivalent wrt voting ud or sando, but ud has a vote on him so I'll vote there for now. I strongly believe that there are associatives between the two of them.

[skitter30]

a) you're voting for someone on the basis that you think she's a wolf but can't describe how without grossly misrepping her

b) I think the wolf is pine or nm. I don't think that there's much interest in wagoning either right now

[skitter30]

VOTE: sando

[skitter30]

I'm kinda ambivalent wrt voting ud or sando, but ud has a vote on him so I'll vote there for now. I strongly believe that there are associatives between the two of them.

So you go for the person that is also pretty much confirmed not-wolf...this is why I'm not believing that you're understanding town. We want to kill wolf today, it's 100% the best option for town, and you're flailing around going for the most anti-wolf people in the game...

Still wanna know what happened to the capslock bandit.

Again, I'm throwing this back at you by pointing out that you're complaining that I'm not voting a wolfread when you're voting me but literally can't explain how I make sense as a wolf without misrepping me. You ignored me when I pointed that bit out, and you still haven't addressed it.

Like you're saying that I'm scummy because I'm not voting someone who makes sense as a wolf because a wolf lynch is today's best lynch - yet you literally can't explain how the person you're voting makes sense as a wolf. Does that not seem a wee bit hypocritical or nonsensical to you?

And where, pray tell, am I flailing?

Also I agree that in an abstract sense that lynching a wolf is optimal today. Thing is that a) I'm not super confidant I know where wolves are b) I don't think other people are intersted in wagoning those people right now. I don't want to mislynch today and hit town. I'd *muuuuuuch* rather be voting someone I strongly suspect is mafia than someone I'm not super confidant is a wolf.

The best thing we can do is lynch a wolf, yes, but the worst thing we can do is lynch a townie. I'd rather compromise on a scumread I'm fairly confident on than fuck up and lynch town today.

[skitter30]

You didn't join the AP wagon which would be either thoughtful town or wolf, since town+mafia are going to want confirmed wolf killed.

This is a blatant lie and the basis of your reasoning for why I'm a wolf.

Its mutually exclusive when you claim 'I never did X' when its demonstrably proven that I did do it. Like I either did it or I didn't, but you're claiming that I didn't which is a lie and a blatant misrep that I called you out on repeatedly.

I think I want to do this VOTE: AP . I dislike the way he interacted with the wagon. Or, more accurately, I dislike the way he *didn't* interact with the wagon.

Good to know that if I'm ever in a game with you that if I vote my partner then you'll never ever ever ever consider me as their scumpartner. Top notch play there...

Here you're again ignoring context in order to push the narrative. I never claimed that someone should be hard-cleared if they voted their partner, and that's not what I'm arguing. I'm saying that I literally started the day casing AP and that after that, wolf!me would have had to purposefully direct the seer towards my partner in order to try to build that wagon. That's an entirely different animal than 'voting a partner,' as you're trying to frame it. All of this makes a lot of sense for a partner to do because ...? You can't seem to answer that question without misrepping my interactions with the wagon.

You're like ignoring the nuance of what I'm arguing in order to push your argument. You're also, once again, ignoring the bit where I point out that you're misrepping me.

[skitter30]

This is a blatant lie and the basis of your reasoning for why I'm a wolf.

Oh ffs, seriously? I'm talking post AP-offer, not pre. They're different parts of the game and conflating the two is just stupid, stop it.

Because TW didn't want to end the day, he was at L-1, and NM was off-wagon

How the fuck is being offwagon *after* his offer (when nearly everyone accepted that he was getting lynched that day at that point) more relevant than being on his wagon *before* the guilty was outed?

--

@ud your vote on sando is blatantly survivalistic but it does make me doubt the you/sando pairing to some extent.

[skitter30]

The guy jumps off because "Duck wants to drag out the day", after saying this:

'Hopping off the wagon because the duck wants to drag out the day' and 'wanting to lynch AP' are not dichotomous. I wanted to lynch AP but not until TW was ready to end the day.

It was L-1, and NM was off-wagon, and TW didn't want to end the day yet. Are you suggesting that I should have stayed on? Like what do you think I should have done there?

Skitter all should know Ducklings PR game given we recently played one with him. A) It didn't match his PR game from 720 at least, even his D1 softclaim was significantly lighter touch than that game

a) I haven't actually played a game with PR!tw besides this one as far as I remember. I'm just good at picking up on PR tells in general.

b) especially when I followed a game where he deliberately acted scummy in order to try to make himself mislynchable and not a likely nk (look at the noir dead thread), and then he softed *in reference to that game*

c) and when we've talked with each other about how we each play PRs.

d) I think that all the people that tw thinks knows his PR meta (and thus would've killed him) are less likely to be wolves.

--

@Sando skitter isn't wolf. You do understand that skitter knows how the worst plays as pr? If skitter is wolf, the worst would probably be dead at night 1.

I also literally pushed this point with Duckling yesterday, specifically in reference to NM given he'd recently killed it, but yeah Duckling himself refused to give non-wolf cred to people for not killing him.

and wtf is this post?

I expected to die too but I was comfortable enough with {fumuki, ruby, Sando, skitter} being town or maf and frankly you guys are the only ones liable to pick up on my current tpr meta tells. AP knows me fairly well but not THAT well, plus I was very lynchable this time. I'm getting better at it.

@the worst are you 100% confident here?

What are the odds that they deliberately ignored your soft-tells to get townred?

Town or maf
Town or maf
Town or maf

[skitter30]

Congratulations!

You have earned yourself a permanent scumread!

--

Your current scumread on me only makes sense if you're like deliberately ignoring things that don't fit your narrative or if you're like deliberately ignoring the nuance of my stances/posts/arguments.

[skitter30]

I'm suggesting that you were going after me for suggesting that we lynch someone other than AP

and then deferred to Duckling...who was suggesting that we lynch someone other than AP. Apparently I need to keep this super simple, but you can see the contradiction there?

Is this a thing I've done anywhere since like early day2? And even there I wasn't scumreading you for it, but rather saying I thought your opinion was wrong.

Since you apparently think I'm scumreading you for that: I don't think that there was anything inherently scummy about how you approached the AP lynch yesterday even though I thought and think your opinion was wrong.

And I don't get what this even has to do with the L-1 wagon thing in the first place. And I don't see the contradiction. I'm pretty sure that you're ascribing a scumread to me here that I never had.

You're still currently voting a person he said isn't wolf for the same reason you're now claiming should say you're not wolf...

I don't think you're a wolf, for exactly the reason you're citing. I don't know who the wolf is, but I'm pretty damn sure you're not town. I'd rather lynch *any* sort of scumread that I'm very confident on than take a gamble on someone that's 'maybe-wolf-maybe-town' because the margin of error in this game is super small and doesn't really leave much room for mistakes, and we've already blown through one of our mislynches.

And I said all of this already:

Also I agree that in an abstract sense that lynching a wolf is optimal today. Thing is that a) I'm not super confidant I know where wolves are b) I don't think other people are intersted in wagoning those people right now. I don't want to mislynch today and hit town. I'd *muuuuuuch* rather be voting someone I strongly suspect is mafia than someone I'm not super confidant is a wolf.

The best thing we can do is lynch a wolf, yes, but the worst thing we can do is lynch a townie. I'd rather compromise on a scumread I'm fairly confident on than fuck up and lynch town today.

[skitter30]

I'm suggesting that you were going after me for suggesting that we lynch someone other than AP and then deferred to Duckling...who was suggesting that we lynch someone other than AP. Apparently I need to keep this super simple, but you can see the contradiction there?

OK.

This reads to me like you're calling me disingenuous for pushing you for suggesting we lynch someone other than AP when I wanted to defer to the duck who wanted to lynch someone other than AP.

The problem with this is that *I never pushed you for suggesting we lynch someone other than AP*.

What I did say was:

* I think that there's no point lynching outside of the guilty

* I think it's hypocritical of you to push me for wanting to lynch a wolf yesterday when you wanted to lynch wolves yesterday (that's what the post in response to the fumuki post was saying)

* I think it's scummy and hypocritical for you to be pushing me for not voting someone I think is a wolf when you're voting me but can't explain how my actions make sense as coming from a wolf in a holistic sense.

I never called you scummy or pushed you solely because you had a different opinion on how to handle the AP thing; I don't think there's anything inherently scummy in that POV.

I think the way you interacted with the AP thing given your stated POV and the way you're pushing me is scummy.

You're telling me I'm being disingenuous because my actions don't match up with what I'm saying. I'm telling you I never said the thing you're attributing to me.

--

but I've ascribed motivations in 1687, for you to pull out a single sentence as if that summarises my entire stand whilst ignoring things like that is just...beyond stupid in its misrepresentation.

The things in 1687 had little to do with why I was or wasn't on the wagon.

-> I started the wagon

-> It gets to L-1, NM is off it, TW wants the day to continue, so I leave the wagon

-> AP makes his offer (notice how the offer comes *after* my unvote)

-> I want to lynch him anyways because I think his plan is anti-town and there's a guilty on him

-> I don't remember the specifics, but after that he was either at L-1 or L-2 for the rest of the day and voting him at any point after that would have ended the day or put him in danger of getting lolhammered before tw wanted the day to end.

Your motivations post has little to do with the logistics of me being on or off the wagon.

You're basically arguing that I'm his partner because I wasn't on the wagon post-offer.

If I'm his partner I was hard-bussing him from daystart and wanted to lynch him - why do I hop off the wagon when he was close to getting hammered or when NM had the oppurtunity to lolhammer him? You still haven't explained what partner!me was doing at daystart. You're focusing on a very specific circumstance and ignoring that the broader context doesn't make any sort of sense.

I want you to explain what you think I was doing at daystart *through* the offer, not just post-offer.

I don't know what you think I'm ignoring.
--

b) Lynching people you know aren't wolf is beyond stupid
c) Trying to hide behind "I'd rather lynch any scum than mislynch" is also a really stupid statement, given you're saying you'd rather lynch in a pool that has less chance of producing "scum" since by your own words, it doesn't include 1/3rd of the scumpool. 3/8 or 37.5% of the pool are scum, you want to reduce that to 2/8 or 25% chance that any given lynch target is scum...can we pretty please play some poker...for money...lots of money? Because you're a terrible gambler.
d) The statement is just also extremely lazy and designed to appeal to town whilst also abrogating your responsibility.

I think that the wolves are in {pine/nm}. I think that pretty much anyone has the potential to be mafia except for like ceejay, but my best bet are you > ud >>> ruby red in roughly that order.

I don't think that there's much interest in lynching either one, and I'm not confident on either to try to force either of those lynches right now. Like I can have lynchpool and recognize that those aren't particularly viable lynches.

I'm not sure what you mean when you say I want to reduce the chance that any given lynchtarget is 2/8. Like I'm not sure what I'm doing that corresponds to this statement.

You're also arguing this purely on odds but failing to take into account things like behavior and reads. Yes in a vacuum the odds that a particular living player is some variant of scum is 3/8 (it's really 3/7 that some other player is scum if you're assuming that you're town) but I don't ascribe to each player exactly 3/8 of a chance of being scum cuz that would be a silly way of playing the game; people's behavior raises or lowers their individual odds of being scum. Like from town's perspective every other person is equally likely to have rolled scum, but the entire point of the game for town is to try to figure out *who those scum are* based on their behavior.

Also you do realize that the lynch of the day atm is UD, right? You do realize that he's wildly believed to be mafia, right? Do you think that NM and Pine are wolves for voting and/or pushing there?

[skitter30]

I'll respond to all that later today or tomorrow at some point; I have finals this week

[skitter30]

TW, we need to heavily disagree here. Sando didn't notice until a minute ago that Mafia has no reason to want to out the Seer. Do you think if he's scum here he would be thinking only about the other team and not what he himself should do?

It makes no sense duckling. There's some probability of him being mafia, but if Sando is scum, he's very likely flipping wolf here.

Yo TW, have your fun with Fumi, but it's just occurred to me: Why are people so concerned about which scumfaction the person is? Town are the least likely to care about what faction someone is other than that they're scum, at least while seer is alive and well.

Aside, this post is hilarious given the argument I've been having with you for the past couple of days, where this is *my* position and you're arguing the opposite.

[skitter30]

Honestly the fact that I get constantly SRd on this site for pointing out the best townplays available is a constant source of frustration.

That's not why I'm scumreading you

I get that you have a different philosophy on how to play multiball. I don't have a problem with that. I have a problem with you scumreading me for being a wolf when my actions *don't make sense as coming from a wolf* in a holistic sense and you're ignoring that.

You're effectively scumreading me for having a different philosophy wrt multiball than you do because you claim my POV pushes a wolf agenda although you can't explain how the rest of my behavior makes sense as coming from a wolf. Also I was pushing this POV waaaaay back on Day1 during the esp thing, which is before there were any wolves in the picture at all, and this is literally how I always play multiball.

--

I agree with you that pine's hop onto your wagon is meh; his case feels like it's pushing a narrative. I went through your ISO and I don't think I'm seeing the same thing that he's seeing. Like I don't think it's accurate to say that you're *obsessed* with the seer. I do agree that you do spend a lot of time talking about it though. Also I don't think he actually looked through those 44 hits for the word 'seer' since quite a few of those hits aren't things you actually said, but rather you responding to posts that other people wrote that had the word 'seer' in it; a good 9 of those hits come from 824 alone, so describing it that way makes it look like you talked about the seer more than you did imo.

Although from

Sando thought seer was a threat to both Mafia and WW, Fumu corrected me.

I can see the emphasis-on-seer thing coming from mafia!you given this.

--

Also moving your vote off of me to someone that I want to push because I pointed out that you're overlooking him is kinda meh.

[skitter30]

a) I'm a she btw

b) your timeline is out of order. I took my vote off of AP *before* he posted his plan - it literally had no impact on my unvote because *the plan didn't exist yet*

c) I told both of you that I thought the plan was a bad idea, but that I would do what TW wanted. Don't put words in my mouth. I want you to show me the posts where I go after you for disagreeing with that plan (the quote you cited is not an example of this - disagreeing with your opinion != going after you). I go after you for a lot of things yesterday and today, but this isn't one of them. After I thought about the plan a bit I didn't support it. i.e. I'm also objecting to the bolded bit of '

yo TW, that's a great plan

, ima do what you said' because I never said that.

d)

Pine is choosing to ignore the actual motivation and reasoning behind what happened yesterday, fairly opportunistically I'd say

I think I agree with this about Pine; I'm really not sure how he misses you talking about the seer yesterday.

I would, however, like to say that I think this is how you're treating my interactions with the AP wagon.

--

I don't particularly consider ruby red qualified to meta me.

Aside, I have since learned who ruby red is, and I'd like to amend this statement. She has a fair amount of experience with me but I don't think she has a particularly strong track record of reading me. The game we played with her on this alt is one of the times she did eventually read me correctly, and based on that game alone I thought she was applying bad meta.

I also don't really think I can read her properly so I'm not really sure how to sort her, especially since she isn't really posting. Based on prior games that apparently isn't AI for her so I'm kinda at a loss. I think BoP might work but idk what her reads are besides for the fact that she's scumreading me so it might be hard to apply that to later days.

[skitter30]

Lynch fuggers

Also, you do realize that you're not voting him, right?

[skitter30]

VOTE: Sando

Also this is L-1 btw

I'd kinda prefer the day not end before fumuki-slot says, like, anything

[skitter30]

Yes, I'm aware that he a has a rep for lolhammering. The difference between here and there is that there isn't a PR telling me he wants the day to continue here.

[skitter30]

Your posts have a fairly tangential relationship to reality

[skitter30]

Your posts have a fairly tangential relationship to reality

You're literally the only person in the game who's expressed any understanding of reality here, fuck I hope you're scum, for your sanity's sake. I'm really glad to be out of here as town, this group is...ergh.

Nope, very town. I keep playing multiball games cuz I want to roll scum in one, but that hasn't happened yet. So yeah I'm just going to go down my sus list till the games over or I'm dead and we'll see how that works out.

Irregardless of your flip, I shall avenge Pine's vote on you tomorrow.

--
On asssociatives CJ is like never scum here I think. At least, hes literally never maf unless pin's preferred lynch day1 was on his partner, and he probably isnt a wolf since he joined the AP wagon before the guilty was outed.

[skitter30]

Even given multiball, this game has waaaaay too many scumfucks.

[skitter30]

lol ok I finally read her right for once <3

Pine, are you like not reading the game?

I'm kinda wondering if that kill was made because they thought she was scum or because they thought she was town.

So it's 1:1:4 atm which actually is pretty good.

Me- town
Pine - *pretty* sure scum, probably ww
NM - idk, maybe town because town has to be somewhere. Least confident read/PoE though
fumuki - probably town. probably not ww since tw wasn't nk'd n1
ceejay - town because he isn't maf (pin's preferred lynch day1) and isn't a wolf (hopped onto the ap thing before the guilty was outed)
uglyduck - maybe maf?

Really the only thing I'm very very confident is that ceejay is town.

I'm pretty confident (although slightly less confident than with ceejay) that Pine is scum, although idk which faction exactly, but I'd guess ww.

[skitter30]

Pine, are you like not reading the game?

This is kinda a sarcastic statement since the things he's saying are kinda absurd in the context of the game.

I dunno, PoE suggests skitter. Fumuki was too disengaged to make a precision strike on Red Ruby.

Need to ISO skitter and AP together.

Given that the feasibility of me being an AP partner was a major topic of discussion for the last two dayphases (like that was literally the basis of the arugment I had with sando yesterday), he's either literally not reading the game or faking it. Like it doesn't make sense to pop in on day4 and say 'hmm, maybe skitter is scum with AP on PoE' given previous game events.

His hop on Sando yesterday was also gross and slimy and at best indicated that he wasn't reading the game, but seemed more to me like he was misrepping him in order to push his narrative. Like the things he accused sando of literally didn't make sense and when I pointed that out he ignored me, although he was paying enough attention to interact with sando in order to call him 'obvscum' after each one of his posts, or to encourage nm's uglyduck push. So it's not like he was just blanketly ignoring the game, but rather more like he's been selectively interacting with people in order to promote his narrative.

(1710 - gross sando vote; I talked about it in 1723)

Lol Sando wants to focus on Maf, when eliminating wolf makes this a no-NK game

Be more obvious

Your posts have a fairly tangential relationship to reality

Like pine saying this is absurd given that sando was pushing for killing the ww all phase; sando literally argued for the ww over maf for multiple days in a row and got into several arguments about it with several people. (this also didn't seem like a response to any of sando's posts either). Like there's really no way to come to this conclusion by reading sando's posts, and like, I just don't think he's the type of guy to literally just like not understand what the main topic of discussion is over a period of like two weeks.

VOTE: pine

I'm pretty sure this isn't town behavior. Idk if he's the ww in particular; there's nothing *from him* in particular that points ot one faction or the other. There's a few posts from his predecessor (mwnn) that are weird when viewed from the POV as a potential wolf partner, specifically, which I pulled out in 1581

(AP flipped wolf)

[skitter30]

p r o d g e

VOTE: skitter

This pretty much screams to me that skitter isn't mafia...

Yeah, the reason I was scumreading her is because her scumread on me didn't feel real and didn't feel like any of the *other* six billion times she scumread me.

--

1) The “these people aren’t wolves because they know the Seer’s meta” assertions are bullshit. They make the assumption that certain people would act in exact ways with their choice of NK. the worst was one out of nine targets for the wolves N1, and we can’t clear people based on their inability to zone in on the Seer. Frankly, delving into pint’s ISO, I’d say the motivation for the kill is obvious regardless of AP’s partner: pint seemed to have a scumlean on AP and was a strong poster.

I'm not really clearing anyone for that reason so much as thinking it makes them less likely to be a wolf

Also at this point that logic only really applies to your slot and me anyways and I'm townreading your slot for other reasons, so yeah

--

I’m leaning towards skitter as the wolf. I don’t think he’s Mafia - RR’s push on skitter the entire time he was alive looked like a genuine push on a suspected wolf as opposed to a bus - but I think he makes a lot of sense as AP’s partner. I’ll go into detail on it later.

a) she

b) that wasn't a genuine push on me from her; I'd link you but I don't remember if her main is public. Honestly, that wasn't a genuine push from her on *anyone,* which is why I was dubious about tw wanting to townread her

c) I'd like to hear more about why you think I'm a wolf given that I think that pairing is literally nonsensical

d) what do you think about pine?

e) I don't really think ud bleeds town like you think he does. I'm pretty sure that pine's scum and the more I think about it the more I think nm probably is too tbh. That's gut though since I can't read him for shit.

--

VOTE: Skitter

Oh good, more of the not-interacting-with-me thing.

[skitter30]

In general I’m sensing a disconnect between different points you bring up in your posts. There was the one last page that I still feel odd about (you say it’s sarcastic but go on to say there’s a legitimate chance Pine’s not reading the game - it’s hard for me to buy into your thought process), and your comments in your most recent post about Ruby Red don’t quite piece together. You’re confident RR’s read on you wasn’t real, yet it’s essentially the only thing she pushes during this game and you say it’s different than the other times she’s pushed you. You’ve got a sense of confidence about your thoughts here that confuses me.

I think he's reading the game and following along but only responding to the things that are useful to him.

Scrap that. Skitter couldn't be wolf too. She led the lynch on AP even before the seer claimed.

Like this has been talked to death over the past month. I said it multiple times yestrday, I eventually got sando to agree with this yesterday, tw agreed with me day2.

Scrap that. Skitter couldn't be wolf too. She led the lynch on AP even before the seer claimed.

Hmmm

That's actually a pretty solid point.

UNVOTE:

Like I just don't buy that he's *just* considering this now when it's been a major topic of discussion for literally dayphases and he's interacting with the thread and with other posters. Like I'm saying that the only way this makes sense to me if he isn't scum and isn't doing this on purpose is if he's only reading some random posts and literally ignoring all the other ones and all other context and like .... he just doesn't seem like the type of dude to do that. And like, he's ignoring me pointing out that this is what he's doing when he's clearly reading the thread.

I don't know how to elaborate on the ruby red thing without talking about her main. I've played with town!her a lot on her main. She scumreads me practically every time, and she's always wrong, but she usually re-evaluates. Sometimes she comes to the right conclusion, sometimes not. Here she just declared me scum without interacting with me at all - she was complaining that I wasn't behaving the way I usually do day1, which was true for irl reasons, but I was behaving the way she's familiar with how town!me behaves day2 and day3 and there was just no re-evaluation at any point.

She also like never laser-focuses on one player and declares them scum and then disappears for weeks as town without really pushing them or having a reads progression or exhibiting reevaluation. She doesn't like focus in on one person but is instead open to re-evaluation and like listening to people and interacting with people and like ... trying to gamesolve. She's good enough to be BoP'd and her only having the one read (that I know is wrong) and not pushing anything else was just a major red flag.

--

Anyway, more on why I suspect you’re the wolf. It centers around your interactions with AP on D2. There’s a large shift in your attitude this game from your very first post on D2 - you smack your vote on AP and never take it off. The impression I have is that you decided you were going to be pushing AP during the night phase, regardless of your alignment. From the moment you vote AP to the moment tw claims the guilty on him, you focus in on AP hard, and AP focuses right back on you. You’re making arguments, but generally they’re not persuading anyone, and no one else joins your wagon. You make the comment shortly before tw claims that you don’t think AP is going to be the day’s lynch.

Idk what to say beyond that I'm good at reading AP and the one and only time I read him wrong was the first time I ever played with him; I've since read him correctly as scum, figured out his alt (ie I figured out who AP was on alt for), and read him correctly as town on meta when he was deliberately changing his playstyle on the alt.

Also if I was scum with AP I never bus him since he has a much better scumgame than me. If there's any bussing either way he busses me (especially given how *I* was the one under suspicion at the end of day1), although I think we'd try to avoid that tbh.

Yes, I really was *that* sure at the start of day2 because he doesn't play that way as town. And I was trying quite hard to get him lynched, thank you very much. And I think he was trying to stave me off at daystart because he knows from the last time we did this that I'm really that stubborn and that I'll just keep shouting this to anyone who would listen till dayend.

Like from my POV wolf!me bussing AP is asinine given that: a) I figured out tw was the seer day1 and didn't kill him b) I started the day voting my partner c) I asked the seer (who coincidentally had a guilty on my partner) why he wasn't voting my partner d) I support the seer once he outs a guilty on my partner e) I repeatedly tell my partner that his plan is stupid

and just like ... this is so beyond hilariously out of my scumrange and something that I honestly can't imagine myself doing ever. And like ... I can't imagine being so *stubborn* and *forceful* about it. Like if I majorly suspect that tw is the seer I don't like ... direct him at AP and try to convince him to wagon him with me.

The abrupt shift in your posts and AP’s on D2 is what really sells me on it. That, along with the feeling of general dissonance in your most recent posts, leaves me confident in you being the wolf.

also, the shift in my posts was an irl thing and I believe I said that multiple times at that point of the game.

--

ceejay seems to at least not be ww, I’d have to look in more detail to have confidence in him as town... but let’s call it leaning town for now?

ceejay isn't maf because pin was gunning for him day1

[skitter30]

VOTE: Skitter

At this point the information from the flip is almost as important as the chance she is WW

a) why do you think I'm the wolf?

b) what sort of information, pray tell, do you think you'll be gaining from my flip?

[skitter30]

I want to lynch Pine though, and failing that, NM

[skitter30]

VOTE: Skitter

At this point the information from the flip is almost as important as the chance she is WW

Garbage vote

Yep why do you think that?
Btw you are next.

VOTE: Skitter

At this point the information from the flip is almost as important as the chance she is WW

a) why do you think I'm the wolf?

b) what sort of information, pray tell, do you think you'll be gaining from my flip?

If you don't answer I'm just going to assume that you can't back up your statements

--
@klick:

off the top of my head, AP games are Open 721 (first AP game, guessed his alt and townread him from that point), Open 713, which was the last iteration of jungle republic, (he played as Almost50, I had him as some flavor of scum pretty much as soon as he repped him and then spent a day phase and a half arguing with him about it till I got him lynched), Open 711 (first game with him, town, I thought he was scum but he claimed PR immediately thereafter so I just decided to ignore the read because I thought nk's would resolve it, and they did).

Huh, i thought there were more.

Ruby on this alt is splatoon, micro 798, which I talked about in this game a few times both before I knew the main and after. I'm not going to link the games I played with her main, sorry.

Scumgames for me you have to go back to ~August I think, Mini 1946 iirc.

And lmk if you want anything else.

also I'm a she btw

also ceejay is my strongest townread atm so I don't really want you to vote there. I'm pretty sure all scum are in {pine/nm/ud}
--

I want to lynch Pine though, and failing that, NM

Tragic

I'm chasing my dreams

[skitter30]

All's good

[skitter30]

I still just have this feeling about you (I’m sorry i can’t seem to make it go away),

but like complete 180 no shot you are WW

.

yes, i agree, which is why I can't believe we're still debating this like two dayphases later

[skitter30]

Pine, who do you want to lynch today?

[skitter30]

Klick is fumuki who was draynth, right?

I was townreading draynth, and duckling thought fumuki wasn't a wolf because he'd have picked up on softs and killed him n1.

what were you thinking about ruby yesterday?

[skitter30]

i kinda think he's tending more like his scum meta tbh

[skitter30]

also ceejay is my strongest townread atm so I don't really want you to vote there. I'm pretty sure all scum are in {pine/nm/ud}

[skitter30]

zzzzzzzzz

Can we lynch pine or nm now?

[skitter30]

ceejay - town because he isn't maf (pin's preferred lynch day1) and isn't a wolf (hopped onto the ap thing before the guilty was outed)

i am very very very confident that he isn't maf, but not as strongly confident that he isn't a wolf. my hesitance about clearing him for being a wolf is significantly less strong than my suspicion of pine/nm, and i really can't imagine a universe where i vote him today.

[skitter30]

that was worded badly.

basically i really don't think he's ever maf here.

he probably isn't a wolf but i'm not as confident on that as on him not being a maf.

i am significantly more confident on scum in {pine/nm} than i am on him possibly being a wolf.

i'll probably go back and reread the ap associatives at some point to remind myself of why i was reading that so strongly

[skitter30]

Okay, AP, I have a plan. I's a good one, too.

We tell everyone that it's a full moon tonight and the moon is about to come up. Then, we watch the reactions of everyone here. If someone seems nervous and starts trying to get out, we lynch them.

What do you think?

Given that Ap is a werewolf, this is actually a really weird post in retrospect

OK, serious read.. duckling is town

So far I've pegged 3 townies with some degree of confidence: Pintu, MWNN & tw

Next..

AP and I have a mental connection at this point because this is also my town block. If I was about 20 years older, I'd guess we were twins separated at birth.

I'm also giving UglyDuck a probationary membership into my townblock based on the word of a full member of my townblock, though.

Do partners say this?

the first one is the main reason why i'm thinking pine's slot is slightly more likely to be ww than mafia.

i'm also trying ot figure out who makes the ruby kill last night given that i didn't. klick's slot was basically empty i think, and i'm pretty sure UD and ceejay don't kill her in this gamestate. also i'm tending towards thinking fumuki doesn't kill her there.

i want pine and/or nm to talk about their ruby read at eod yesterday

[skitter30]

The stuff surrounding the NM Seer fakeclaim is silly. I think NM does it as any alignment.

I don't feel like Pine genuinely believes anyone will fall for NM's gambit.

also this which is why it was weird he was taking it so seriously.

last jungle republic mafia!ap hard townread town!nm so idk if that particular interaction is partner-indicative tbh.

i'm more bothered by the mwnn-ap interactions than the ap-nm interactions, but i absolutely do not townread nm in any sense here

[skitter30]

i guess i'm just hesitant because if nm doesn't flip wolf i think i'm the nk here most of the time and i'm really not confident you guys will lynch pine without me