Mini 2011: Partition Mafia (Game Over)

[zMuffinMan]

i joined this game for one reason and one reason only: to

mis

lynch DV (even if it happened to cost of my own life)

VOTE: DV('s group)

the blood gods demand his blood and i shall not sleep until i've appeased them

join me on this path of righteousness and justice, brothers

i may or may not have been marathoning vikings and other shows of a similar nature recently

[zMuffinMan]

i think a relatively even distribution implies about 1 scum per grouping, max two and one group containing all scum.

i put a lot of thought into how i'd approach the grouping and splitting in this setup. gonna spoiler it since it's mostly irrelevant now (i just find this setup interesting from a theory perspective)

Spoiler:

i figured optimal (in terms of higher-risk-higher-reward) splits were 6-4-3 (i'd have gone with either a 3-0-0 or a 0-3-0 split, depending on how competent i thought my teammates were) or 7-3-3 (either 3-0-0, 0-3-0 or 2-1-0, depending on teammates) or 8-3-2 (again, either 3-0-0, 0-3-0 or 2-1-0)

2-1-0 with a 7-3-3 or 8-3-2 split would have been best i think, purely because it forces town to be put in a position where they go for the larger group and accelerate lylo or go for a smaller group and at best hit 1 scum. though a 3-0-0 or 0-3-0 would have been more fun to play i think

something 11-1-1 would be hilarious but probably suboptimal, unless you can predict how town is going to vote

all that said, 5-4-4 is boring but probably optimal in terms of how safe it is (it gives the least information away in terms of split since it could be 3, 2-1 or 1-1-1. i think maybe 3 is less likely because scum who choose such a boring, safe split are far more likely to be risk-averse but now we're going against a sicilian with death on the line)

as is, i'm not reading into the split too much atm (it's probably not fruitful to discuss it at much length anyway - that said, talking about groups/splits is an easy way to look like you're posting content when you're really not

#notbeingahypocrite

)

i'm thinking ideally we just lynch DV today (the most optimal of optimal lynches possible) and go from there

[zMuffinMan]

if you're hinting at role information, be explicit about it

[zMuffinMan]

i think you'll find i voted dv's group, not dv - that seems to be within the rules of the game

[zMuffinMan]

why would I be explicit about my role in twilight?

yeah ok, gonna ignore you then

in other news,

Vote: 1

[zMuffinMan]

its okay, i'm used to scum ignoring me. its one of the better ways of dealing with me.

i can tell. scum must be shaking in their little booties at having to deal with as fearsome a player as you

Do you have a DV policy lynch policy? I'm town and would prefer not to die day one so perhaps you could wait until he's in a group that doesn't contain me to satisfy your DV-craving.

i'm not advocating a policy lynch on DV. what have i said that could have possibly given you that idea?

[zMuffinMan]

eh, rereading that, i don't like #31 at all

[zMuffinMan]

ffery told me you came back because of her and pointed out this game

oh, you're someone's alt or something? i see. i'm not particularly interested in playing guessing games (and i can't be bothered right now to check whether you've outed your main). but yes, any wrong-doing on my part should be blamed on ffery - i cannot be held responsible

btw, if you were being serious and did have a guilty on someone in my group, i was going to suggest there might be a way that we can both achieve our goals (lynch them

and

DV - win/win for everyone)

alas

[zMuffinMan]

one of the goats

they were clearly lying; i don't have horns and i only sometimes eat grass. plus i wouldn't trust anything anyone says about me - likely they've seen the one game i did well in but missed the other 99 i swept under the rug while whistling innocently

as the proud member of the only group from which all members have posted, do you have any thoughts on your current company? DV aside (obvious scum that needs to die a slow and painful death), thoughts on 6/35 and 31?

[zMuffinMan]

i don't like #31 and i think if i had to break down specifically why, it would be the "'m town and" part

[zMuffinMan]

*shrug* i don't like the way it's phrased but i don't feel strongly enough about it to make a big deal out of it

i do think "i would prefer..." is more natural from town than "i'm town and would prefer..." though, especially in a setup like this where, with the current split at least, town dies D1 no matter what

like i think if i were put into DV's group, i'd be pretty accepting of my own death, considering it would be for the greater cause - speaking of, 'tis truly a noble sacrifice you're making today, eddie

[zMuffinMan]

i actually think everyone who's posted from group 2 so far looks varying degrees of town(ish)

pine being the one i'm most meh about

[zMuffinMan]

I'm sorry, you're telling me you have an actual SR off of this? Or are you pushing an out of game vendetta for a serious game?

i find it funny that anyone actually thought this

i haven't played mafia in a fair while now and i think the last time i played with DV was when we were on a bus heading home from an ausmeet - so unless he stiffed me a bus fare, i (probably) wouldn't seriously go D for DVendetta on him

actually i had some malformed plan of engaging him early and it seemed like an amusing way to do so but apparently he has better things to do on a sunday night than spend time with me

#notheartbroken

Muffinman's phantom case on DeasVail is making me uncomfortable, and the rest of 3 is lurkerish

while i

do

seriously think 'hey wassup' is an incredibly scummy thing to say and i think only confirmed scum who are being deviously cheeky would say it...

what exactly do you imagine the scum motivation behind my 'phantom case' being? do you think i thought people would look at DV's sole post in game and go "yeah, that muffin guy's got a really good point! it blows my mind at how good at finding scum he is and he's also so handsome and smart and cool too!"?

also, i chuckled a bit at your use of "lurkerish" when the game had (at the time) been open for 11 hours

[zMuffinMan]

I like offing group 1 rn, both of the people who have irked me are in it.

which two people?

all of group 3 except jungle (who hasn't posted and i forget who thats a hydra of) is pushing group 1, cool cool.

truly a group of kings among men

2018-05-14 01:59:32

hey muffinman. i summon you. come online and talk to me.

if you want to talk to me, 6am-6:30am my time (now) or 5pm-9ishpm (11 hours from now). maybe occasionally while i'm at work and pretending i'm doing stuff while constantly looking over my shoulder to make sure no one sees me browsing MS

fwiw, i don't necessarily disagree with some of your tinfoil theories, they're just things i am keeping in the back of my mind atm. that said, i'm willing to join you on the path to being a real man if i think my group is infested with scum. though tbh if i am in a group with scum, then scum doesn't know shit about how i'd play this setup (or is counting on me to be arrogant enough not to want to lynch myself? or they just really don't like me and i'm going to be stuck with them every day. meh)

[zMuffinMan]

it will be hard for him to top the first one

[zMuffinMan]

Nobody outside group 2 is scumreading anyone in group 2

yeah, about that...

i've been thinking a bit about how everyone in group 2 minus pine needs to go on suicide watch and while mulling it over a bit (since i've got nothing better to do while i

stare at a screen and pretend to do work all day

wait for queries to run and things to compile), i decided it's not all that likely there's 2 scum in that group

briefly gonna run through the ideas i was thinking over:

i don't really know the history of the players in your group, but from what i've read of the players so far, apart from

maybe

you, i don't see them as all that capable of thinking they can pull off a self-vote reverse psychology sort of move - as in, based on how capable they seem, i have a hard time seeing any combination of riku+buj, riku+kok or buj+kok thinking it's a good idea to try and out-WIFOM town (though if they

were

doing it, i think they'd have given some indication they're willing to move elsewhere, but so far they're all staying steadfast on the "WE MUST DIE!" course (and neither buj nor riku seem to have even flinched at a REAL MAN joining their wagon)) - maybe i'm severely underestimating their capabilities, but eh, from what i've read so far, they don't seem like the types of players who would come up with that and think it's a winning strategy (or at least if they did, i'd expect to see it played a bit differently)

i don't really think you're doing it either (though i don't feel strongly enough about this to say it with certainty). i think if you were doing it, you'd probably be less likely to draw attention to the fact that no one seems to want to push your group (status quo of no one discussing it i think would be better for you in the long run since it's more likely to stop being a thing that way). i also think in order for there to be 2+ scum in that group of 5, you'd need to be the ring leader essentially (if you have some reason for thinking otherwise, i'm all ears... or eyes, i guess)

i think the more likely scenario than 2+ scum in your group is 1 (or possibly 0 but i think more likely 1)

if there's 1, they probably set this group up predicting that whatever particular chemistry you guys have would make it more likely their group was lynched (seems to be working for the people in your group, at least!) and are doing so at the cost of a sacrifice (i think you're by far the least likely to be doing it in this case)

kind of the same logic applies if there's 0 in the group (though in this case, probably the reason there's so little discussion about it is scum are waiting for your group to implode on itself without needing to do much themselves)

here's a question i'm interested in: would pine have been aware of the dynamics of your group?

i'm undecided about what to make of pine and the fact he seems to be largely ignoring the silent pleas for help that are coming from your group of clearly unhealthy people - it reads a bit like someone who doesn't want to rock the boat and is fine with how things are playing out, which is why i want to know how likely it is he'd have known this is how things would play out. the fact that pine is playing like he is, though, is why i'm not really including him in all the 2-scum speculation

the tl;dr of all this is that i think it's more likely scum are fine with what group 2 is doing because they're hoping it goes through without them having much of a hand in it, not because there's 2 scum in it. i'm currently thinking it's most likely a 1-1-1 split with an outside chance of a 2-1-0 split

all that said, independent of the whole voting stuff, i have a mild town read on buj-dude and a weaker town read on kok-guy and riku

the group i feel worst about is group 1

NSG is probably town in that group, but i don't have any sort of town read on the rest of them. i'm pretty sure DV hates scum (maybe this has changed or i'm remembering something incorrectly) so it wouldn't surprise me if his inactivity is a result of that, i haven't liked what little hf has posted and eddie hasn't done anything that makes me feel one way or another about him but he has an evil-sounding name

[zMuffinMan]

briefly

gonna run through the ideas i was thinking over

LAL

[zMuffinMan]

Northside for some of their posts feeling kinda fake like their weird meta argument.

eh. disagree on this

actually part of the reason i think NSG is town is that she's one of the only players i think is actively trying to sort the game and i don't mind the way she's doing it

[zMuffinMan]

oh, all that reminds me, one thing i don't like about pine is that he's still harping on about this DV thing i did while pretty much ignoring the rest of what's going on in the game

[zMuffinMan]

I think muffin and RMOJ were trying to wind people up

other dude aside, i think anyone who has played with me before knows that's not what i was going for

in all honesty, this is how i imagined things playing out yesterday:

me: "IM COMING FOR YOU DV"
DV: "Noooo! I'm town!"
me: "i don't believe you, scum fuck!"
DV: "Oh, muffin! You're so smart and handsome, I could never fool you... I'd replace out if I drew scum!"
and then we have a conversation about stuff that either lets me sort him or doesn't, but either way, we'd move on with the game after that

i also imagined he'd use the word "bad" at some point so that i could bring up the zinger: "what? 'bad' like losing to a 9-year-old girl and her little sister in laser tag?" (true story, actually happened)

[zMuffinMan]

yeah, well... *shrug*

that's what happens when i'm left alone with my thoughts all day

i didn't think it was gonna be that long, but i kept remembering things i'd thought about after i started writing so whatevs

[zMuffinMan]

why? do you have a legitimate scum read on anyone in your group or purely because of the composition of it?

[zMuffinMan]

bad? like losing to... nah, it's not worth it anymore

[zMuffinMan]

i'm town

there are things i would lie about but this is not one of them

[zMuffinMan]

I like Cakez, I like Dramonic, I like BuJaber.

i agree with these reads, ftr

talk about your NSG read in particular when you get back (and whether your kok read is tied to that or independent of it)

[zMuffinMan]

also was your hf read in #186 serious?

i'm too tired to stay up and wait for you to finish cooking. come on earlier tomorrow night, ty

[zMuffinMan]

he's right, though (not that it really matters and this is a boring discussion)

the scenario he gave is a good example. town's win chances if it reaches 5:1 are 50% but if you factor in that comes after a 1/3 chance of hitting an all-town group, it's less than that overall

don't have time to read this morning, will catch up sporadically over the day probably

[zMuffinMan]

i'm weird, not meh though so i guess i'm ok

[zMuffinMan]

i haven't read anything not on this page since after i went to sleep last night (been focusing on something else)

let me get to a computer at work

in the mean time, feel free to summarise why you think that though

[zMuffinMan]

i don't think anything DV's done is outside the scope of what i know of him as scum (though it's been a while)

he's the kind of player i would generally read more on tone than other things and i think his generally happy-sounding entrance is a good sign but nothing all that strong

his big post on NSG didn't sit well with me though (#218). apart from having a radically different interpretation of NSG's posts (actually, i thought NSG's response about reading kokichi was reasonable (particularly the 'in 2 pages' part), especially since i do that sometimes too), the thing i actually dislike about #218 is the way it's structured - this isn't so easy to explain but i think it looks too much like an artificial story he's weaving. for example, the phrases "easy to say the words, but a lot harder to back up" and "doesn't stack up" et al really bother me and the way he's written it looks too much like someone who's put together a carefully constructed case than someone talking about how they genuinely feel about certain posts (it feels a lot like he's written a speech for a court case or a formal debate or something)

i dunno. it feels robotic to me

his kok read came across a bit more natural-sounding though

[zMuffinMan]

though i suppose if i squint hard enough i could see his points about NSG making sense from his pov - i just think the way he wrote about it was bad

i actually liked #35 a fair bit (in the context of votes happening at the time and the way i opened the game, it felt pretty natural). and i have no real issue with the way NSG's sorting her reads either

[zMuffinMan]

i don't think so (unless you mean generally sounding pro-town? in which case, that's a different type of tone from what i'm looking for)

i think DV has a lot in common with mastin in terms of how they approach scum vs how they approach town

[zMuffinMan]

i described the difference as 'whimsy' when i talked about it re:mastin - it's a difference in how comfortable they feel when they play either alignment

it's why, say, i think staring down DV in face-to-face and seeing what he does is a good way to read him over listening to him talk

and it's why i think the way he entered the game is at least a good sign

[zMuffinMan]

pine,

who do you think is scum again?

am i still scum for the DV thing or have you moved on from that and found a better reason?

[zMuffinMan]

and if you still think i'm scum for the DV thing at the start of the game, then what do you make of the fact that the person in question didn't blink an eye at it?

[zMuffinMan]

239 was a really town post

[zMuffinMan]

who do you actually think is scum, eddie?

[zMuffinMan]

You feel worse about G1 based on 3 combined posts by me and DV + NSG prob town + null Eddie with an evil sounding name?

i think you need to learn to read between the lines - not every word i write is going to be serious. but i think you might already know that and you're just playing dumb (because, really, who would think i was being serious about that eddie thing?)

i do think it's likely that there's at least one scum in your group (and i thought this at the time of the post you're referencing (before DV did his catch-up string of posts) but for different reasons than i currently do). i don't think anything you've done looks particularly town (inc. this post) and at the time i thought DV's lack of presence was at least enough to warrant concern (as much as he insists that he'd be more active as scum to avoid accusations like this). eddie i feel meh about - kind of interested in seeing whether he eventually does something outside of 'lynch group 3'

i don't really have any issues with anyone in my group atm. dram seems fine to me (he's not the kind of player who's ever going to be obvtown, but i think he's been fairly transparent here - i don't really agree with many of his reads though), cakez i'm ok with and i think i've been pretty in synch with where the REAL MAN's head has been this game. if there's scum in my group, i'd guess cakez, but i doubt there's two

i'll probably go over group 2 again tomorrow because i might have been misinterpreting something when i first read through the game. though i think buj, wisdom and riku are town to varying extents, in that order

your group is still the one i feel worst about before that, though

[zMuffinMan]

i have a lot of issues with 266 but i'm too tired to actually break it down completely atm (and i don't know whether i can be bothered)

suffice it to say, i don't like that post

[zMuffinMan]

I'm getting scumvibes rn from Riku, BuJaber, Dramonic (sry bb ilu), Muffin, and Kokichi. Tally ho!

I forgot Cakez in this list.

are you town-reading everyone in group 1?

[zMuffinMan]

just

feels

townie

smh

be more specific about what you actually liked about DV, ty

and talk about your hf read

also, challenge: name one scum read you have outside group 3 and why. go

[zMuffinMan]

BuJaber - Neutral
DeasVail - Neutral
dramonic - Town
Eddie Cane - Neutral/Scumlean
havingfitz - Who knows
Kokichi Oma - Neutral/Scumlean
northsidegal - Neutral
Pine - Scum lean
REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE -
riku - Town
SirCakez - Neutral
Wisdom - Town
zMuffinMan - Town

Let's see how wrong I am.

the last line here feels kind of town

[zMuffinMan]

cakez/dramonic

well, we were in synch before this at least

what's your take on dram's mod question? or you don't think it matters?

[zMuffinMan]

skimming while at work

kokichi should confirm what his actual role is if he hasnt (if he has, i missed it)

@wisdom; does your role reset the votecount?

[zMuffinMan]

@wisdom; does your role reset the votecount?

yes

ok. i'm contemplating the value of a mass-claim now

i think scum probably has a decent idea of what the setup looks like anyway and it would allow for some possible role co-ordination

i have a similar role with slightly different rules (i can only swap myself and someone, it also resets the votecount)

[zMuffinMan]

if muffin could do a list

a list of people i knew in this game?

DV wisdom cakez dram hf and maybe i've played with pine before (can't remember)

i didn't know anyone else in the player list prior to the game start but i'm guessing realman is an alt of someone i know too. oh and nsg is modding another game im in but that doesnt really count

i dont think im as famous as you pretend i am

[zMuffinMan]

i dont like massclaims
i always assume the mod isnt dumb to let a d1 massclaim be helpful

i don't think the mod made the setup breakable or anything; i just think there's potential for role co-ordination if there's at least one more role of a similar nature

but i know no one apart from me and maybe someone like nati ever likes early mass claims so i don't know why i even bother trying to convince people it's a good idea

*shrug*

[zMuffinMan]

before anything happens though, kokichi needs to explicitly confirm his role: name, what it does, anything else that's relevant

[zMuffinMan]

But I am comfortable being switched to G3, because you scumfucks die with me

btw, all of pine's play today points towards him being scum protecting group1

i do not believe for one second that pine is town who's so confident in his reads that he's willing to swap to the group

without confirmed scum

to sacrifice himself on the chance that he's right about his reads

[zMuffinMan]

btw, eddie

if i missed it, point me to it, but did you ever answer my questions about dv/hf/scum outside of g3?

[zMuffinMan]

just

feels

townie

smh

be more specific about what you actually liked about DV, ty

and talk about your hf read

also, challenge: name one scum read you have outside group 3 and why. go

this one

[zMuffinMan]

explicitly. claim. your. role. and. all. relevant. information. kokichi

[zMuffinMan]

ok. you played that off as a joke though so i wanted explicit confirmation. that changes things a bit then since i thought you were claiming an actual guilty

[zMuffinMan]

ok, so after thinking it through i don't think anyone should swap anyone and we just lynch group 2 - it's safer to lynch g2 than doing a swap and potentially fucking things up (or hitting less scum as a result)

this also covers the outside chance that kokichi is just scum, even though i think that less likely than him being town atm. swapping koki out isn't a bad idea per se, i think it's just less safe

i'm considering the merits of one other possibility where i swap wisdom for myself and he swaps me + someone else outside of group 2. this might give us a better chance to hit multiple scum

there may be other better alternatives i havent thought of

[zMuffinMan]

what do you mean "need the swaps later"?

[zMuffinMan]

pretty much what dram said is what i concluded. agreeing with dram makes feel weird but there's a first time for everything i guess

it's why id be opposed to any dumb ideas like swapping one of pine/riku out, which is especially stupid and suboptimal if they both happen to be scum

it potentially roots us and it's part of why id prefer no swaps

[zMuffinMan]

if it makes things easier, im town

[zMuffinMan]

that reminds me, i also thought dram's mod question was most likely genuine

[zMuffinMan]

dram is supposing that koki might be scum lying, though

i doubt this is the case, but i think ruling it out is not-so-smart, which is why i'm pretty much in agreement with him

pedit: what dram said

[zMuffinMan]

that reminds me of what i wanted to ask though

@koki

when did you use your role?

[zMuffinMan]

why is eddie so high? why am i so low?

[zMuffinMan]

i believe dram and see no reason to assume he's lying

[zMuffinMan]

im heading home now so ill wait til i get to my computer before looking at that. talk about your hf read in the mean tine

[zMuffinMan]

a variant of wisdom's role

[zMuffinMan]

Muffin what's yours?

mine's a variant of wisdom's role, except he can swap two other people, i can only swap myself and someone. the action is public (requires me typing something in thread) and resets the votecount. i'm guessing wisdom's is the same

it's why i suggested a mass-claim might be useful to co-ordinate actions and get a more optimal lynch group. though i've since changed my mind after thinking it over

[zMuffinMan]

I think it's unlikely that scum would do something as conspicuous as softing a PR and risking negative attention /at at time/ when people are talking about the setup possibly being mountainous

i'm reading this completely differently to you because i'm almost certain that eddie picked up on me soft-claiming something on like p2 or whatever it was. it means nothing to me because i expect he already knew i had a role, just not specifically what role. also not sure why you think scum wouldn't do that or why you think people react badly to soft-claims (unless the meta has changed drastically in the past 2 years, this never happens - at best they're null)

i don't really agree with the point about #641, mostly because i think those look like seem-like-im-doing-something questions

is this everything to the read?

[zMuffinMan]

Muffin what is your read on Eddie?

copout, but i don't have a read on him

his grand reveal about the reason he's been pushing group 3 all game was unimpressive. nothing he's done so far looks like something i couldn't also see from scum. the unhelpful "i'm doing my own thing, fuck your questions" style is boring (#nothypocritical) so i'm just going to leave him in my poe pool for now. i might actually go back and read through his ISO at some point tonight because i honestly can't remember anything he's done this game outside of saying 'vote g3' and the claim stuff

[zMuffinMan]

he's like where i am for you for me

[zMuffinMan]

The focus on you “policy lynching” me was weird. It lasted a bit too long and the thing about you being more suspect for denying it seemed like trying a bit too hard to maintain the push.

ok. talk about your read progression on pine. because in your initial catch-up, i don't remember you mentioning him, but he's been doing this all game

[zMuffinMan]

rereading #530 in the context of how he's played, it's not as bad as i thought it was and i'm ok with it (even though i think it's a pretty dumb reason) (the "unfortunately" at the end seemed mildly town too, i suppose)

[zMuffinMan]

you know, with a few adjustments our reads wouldn't be all that different

but i don't see how you put me that low when your primary scum reads are pine + hf and i'm struggling to believe you haven't formed a read on me either way from my content so far

pedit: @DV obv

[zMuffinMan]

dram isn't actually a setup cop, buj...

[zMuffinMan]

PS: i ain't dying for your sins, REAL MAN

[zMuffinMan]

Yeah thats why you call me trying to save 3 certain townies over 1 a dumb idea

yeah, no

the possible scenarios i'm considering where town gets fucked over after your swap:

- this is a gambit you and kokichi are pulling off together. you swap a town player out into another group, make it an all-town group, we lynch it, 4 town dead and tomorrow is lylo where town has to figure out the gambit
- kokichi is just scum and lying and you swap out a town player for a scum player - town goes into lylo in the dark about what happened
- kokichi is town and you're scum, you swap out a town player for a scum player and make the other group all town - town goes into lylo in the dark about what happened
- both you are kokichi are town, but you still swap out a town player for a scum player - town is still in the dark in lylo

NONE OF THESE SCENARIOS ARE WORTH IT TO SAVE THE SO-CALLED THREE "CERTAIN" TOWNIES WHEN LYNCHING YOUR GROUP JUST FLAT UP NETS AT LEAST ONE SCUM IN ALL CIRCUMSTANCES WHERE KOKICHI IS NOT TOWN DOING SOMETHING INCREDIBLY STUPID.

[zMuffinMan]

AT LEAST ONE being the key here as well.

[zMuffinMan]

that's basically why the ONLY alternative i might consider is swapping exactly ONE player out of group 2 and lynching it. any other scenario is suboptimal play. and even that is suboptimal, but whatever

[zMuffinMan]

What should I be reading as alignment-relevant from you?

if you're trying to tell me you can't tell the difference between my town and my scum play, then fine. whatever. personally i don't think it's as hard to tell the difference as people pretend it is and i always find it amusing when people are overly paranoid, but usually people have at least some opinion on what i've written and you don't seem to have any

apart from maybe the blatant shitposting, i think everything i write is alignment-relevant to anyone who can read between the lines, but *shrug*

[zMuffinMan]

Nobody's in the dark. Even if I swap the wrong person out of g2 we know tomorrow its the other person. The guilty is still there. We lose nothing.

if you're town and he's town, then yes

i am not willing to bet the game on that, though

even if i were extremely confident on my read on the both of you, i wouldn't bet the game on that

it is always safer here to lynch the group with confirmed scum

[zMuffinMan]

he's not as conf-town as wisdom and kokichi

[zMuffinMan]

the funny thing is prior to kokichi's claim, he was slipping into scum territory for me

i thought there was a decent chance that both he and pine might be scum together after going back and looking at how the early game played out (which, ironically, you pointed me to)

his claim doesn't change this - it just means that at least one of he and pine is town

the fact that you're acting like this is something kokichi couldn't do as scum makes me chuckle a little

the fact that you were so certain there were two scum in your group earlier in the game but now you've changed your tune and want to lynch outside of your group despite it being confirmed you were at least half-right makes me chuckle a little (or are you no longer considering riku+pine both scum? because if you are, then lynching your group is worth it if all it costs is three town players)

[zMuffinMan]

there is no scenario where lynching outside your group today is a good idea. i'm pretty much done discussing this, but if need be, i'll repeat the obvious points for the people who are blind

[zMuffinMan]

tbh it doesn't bother me what wisdom chooses to do

either we go with the optimal play which covers all bases and guarantees at least one scum is lynched or we don't

if we don't, then i think i'm just swapping wisdom

absolutely no fucks given

[zMuffinMan]

reiterating, here are the reasons why lynching group 2 with no swaps is the optimal play today:

- kokichi scum with wisdom - it's pretty obvious why the plan is stupid in this case
- wisdom scum, kokichi town - wisdom will be saving scum here (well, not certainly, there are possibilities of gambits, but let's assume he doesn't) and town gets fucked over trying to figure out what happened
- wisdom town, kokichi scum - best case scenario, the group outside 2 we lynch has scum in it after the swap. worst case, none
- wisdom town, kokichi town - the possibility of swapping out a town player for a scum player and lynching an all-town group isn't worth it

group 2 is confirmed to have at least one scum. it may even have two. there is NO good reason to do swaps today and risk not lynching scum. even if you were certain of your reads on wisdom and kokichi, i'd call this an incredibly stupid move

the optimal play here is lynching group 2 with no swaps

at best i'd be willing to accept one swap (say, buj) because at least there exists a possibility of swapping a different scum player in and in the unlikely event they all flip town then buj is scum anyway (i doubt this happens, but this is the absolute worst case scenario)

if anyone wants to argue down the logic here, go ahead. otherwise, if we're just playing suboptimally anyone, then i no longer give a fuck

[zMuffinMan]

ebwop: if anyone that isn't wisdom wants to argue down the logic here...

[zMuffinMan]

I fucking know youre going to use your scumrole to get out of dying. Use it on me and youre fucking dead tomorrow. Nothing youll ever say will excuse you from seeing im obvtown here.

what have you done so far that's 'obvtown'?

claimed a role that allows you to make up a swap-play that gets you out of being lynched?

[zMuffinMan]

REAL MAN, i think you're wrong

wisdom, i don't care. you either go down with the ship or you go down with the other ship. pick your poison

i'm even being generous and allowing you to pick one player you want to save from that group, so long as you aren't stubborn, that seems pretty fair

in any scenario where i'm scum, that means you hit scum today and i can just as easily be lynched tomorrow

in any scenario where you're scum though, town potentially hits no scum today and has to figure out you're scum tomorrow

[zMuffinMan]

anyone who's played with me knows this is town-wisdom

have you never been town-read by people as scum? or is it only by people who don't know you?

you're missing the point anyway. you keep going on and on about being obv-town. you're not. at least not to me. and i don't give two fucks whether you think i'm scum

you do the suboptimal swap and so will i

[zMuffinMan]

I don't do dealings with scum. If you swap to save yourself and kill me you're dead.

if you're town, the loss is on you if the game gets fucked because of your swap

i've given you every warning about it

[zMuffinMan]

if you are TOWN here RECOGNIZE that cakez or dramonic are LIKELY 1 scum here and the loss is NOT AS GREAT as group 2 having LIKELY MAX only 1 scum and everyone else being OBVTOWN

yeah, no

cakez is a maybe but i currently don't think that's the case

i think they're both more town than you anyway

[zMuffinMan]

btw, dram's mod question is STILL the single most town thing anyone has done in this game

[zMuffinMan]

WE KILL {RIKU PINE CAKEZ DRAM}

this actually isn't the worst idea but it's still suboptimal

i would much rather see dram live than you anyway tbh

#protectingmyscumbuddy

[zMuffinMan]

btw, dram's mod question is STILL the single most town thing anyone has done in this game

no it isnt. pretty fakeable.

do you honestly think the way that came out was faked?

[zMuffinMan]

go ahead and nightkill me i double dare you

don't push me or i will

then who's gonna be laughing?

[zMuffinMan]

were we fighting?

[zMuffinMan]

i was just disappointed that you hadn't formed a read on me

plus i thought your eddie read was pretty meh

plus i thought your entrance in the game was pretty meh

don't think i was fighting with you though

[zMuffinMan]

@DV

i think i'm done arguing with wisdom and REAL MAN anyway

i've made the point i wanted to make and if people disagree, so be it. though it's buried in a sea of spam now which most people aren't going to read so whatever

i think it's stupid to potentially slingshot us into a bad lylo scenario but hey, what do i know? that's all i've got to say about it

have you asked me anything i missed in the last hour or so?

[zMuffinMan]

are we doing a mulan sing-a-long now to kiss and make up?

[zMuffinMan]

I still don't know what you are but you're not really a high priority lynch target for me right now if that helps?

this is the kindest thing anyone has ever said to me in a mafia game

[zMuffinMan]

if you had control of the swap, who would you swap (if anyone) DV?

[zMuffinMan]

if you had control of the swap, who would you swap (if anyone) DV?

I would swap Bu and Fitz and still lynch group 2 I think

this is one of the only options i'd actually be fine with. it's the option i suggested to wisdom if people really want him to use his swap

if he tries to use it selfishly and lynch outside of group 2, i think i'm still going to swap him afterward

or i might sleep on it and reconsider -- i suppose the other option is him doing his selfish swap, me swapping someone like hf and just lynching the group after it but that's not as good as just lynching group 2 i think

[zMuffinMan]

wisdom, i'm considering your advice like you're considering mine, fwiw!

[zMuffinMan]

i suppose the best thing that's come out of tonight is knowing that dram is going to wake up tomorrow, read the thread, snap his keyboard in half and headbutt is screen

i find that amusing

[zMuffinMan]

thats a cool excuse for not doing the strictly protown thing

haha... ha...

i guess the other good thing that's come out of tonight is quotes like this

[zMuffinMan]

that's exactly the point

i'm not looking for a qualifier like "more likely"

[zMuffinMan]

that's exactly the point

i'm not looking for a qualifier like "more likely"

how do you play mafia then? are there cops in every game you play?

no, but this is a silly question. an analogy would be when there are counter-claims on the table, i don't say "hey let's ignore that and lynch this other dude over here because maybe he's scum"

[zMuffinMan]

that's not true, but i do not really care to argue with either of you about it anymore so i'll just nod sagely at the sound logic in your posts

[zMuffinMan]

what do you mean? i'm obviously just biding my time so i can kill you tonight, duh

[zMuffinMan]

@REAL MAN, this is the last thing i will say on it tonight (if you want to talk about something else, fine, but you're just plain wrong about the logic here and i don't really care if you're wrong and you're town or you're just pretending not to see the obvious because you're scum and you're happy you're getting swapped out)

even if felt really good about both wisdom and kok being town (and i am nowhere near that, which is why i think the safer play is the better option), i would not be arrogant enough to bet the game on it. the optimal play is still the one that guarantees at least one scum and potentially two with no swapping occurring. if you're town and you're wrong about your wisdom and kok reads, you're fucking the game over with the suboptimal play; the only world in which this is an optimal play is if you're sure that wisdom and kok are town. i'm not. i wouldn't bet on it. i'm not going to go along with any plan where the foundation of it is this assumption

i honestly do not care what people think of how i'm playing (i thought this was going to be a relaxing game that wouldn't require me explaining such basic things but here i am). this is the exact reason i stopped playing a couple years ago, only this time i'm not exploding in a fit of rage about it because it isn't really worth it. i'm so sick of towns doing stupid shit based on shitty assumptions that end up being wrong most of the time and i hate having to play with people who can't think logically or are so confident about something that they're willing to ignore best play

it's worse when i waste my time going through the explanation of the pros and cons of certain things only to be ignored (though i would hope most players in this game can see the obvious)

the only thing i'm going to say about it is this: if you're town and you're wrong about wisdom and/or kokichi, you've most likely lost us the game by doing the swap-play. but if i'm wrong and kokichi-wisdom

is

actually an absurd idea, the worst that comes out of lynching that group with no swaps is a scum lynch

consider that before you try to tell me what optimal play is

i'm done with this conversation

[zMuffinMan]

i will probably just swap again with whoever you swap me for

then lynch group 2

because that would be the best play

but i'm willing to sleep on it and think about how much i feel like being a dick after waking up

[zMuffinMan]

i prefer neither, fwiw!

[zMuffinMan]

when did you start town-reading dram and why?

[zMuffinMan]

Are we agreed so far?

no. but continue

[zMuffinMan]

i already made it clear what i think is optimal

[zMuffinMan]

(plus the alternative i think is reasonable too)

[zMuffinMan]

the idea behind wisdom's swap is that he doesn't want to lynch you/koki, so even if i thought that was a good plan (i don't, really), wisdom might not (plus he wouldn't swap me out in that scenario anyway)

[zMuffinMan]

gonna sleep. maybe ill wake up and be reasonable. but buj, i'm not considering any scenario where i swap first so don't bother suggesting that anymore

[zMuffinMan]

you're wrong, eddie

#gotyourback wisdom

[zMuffinMan]

i see wisdom did the selfish swap

cool

i'm surprised dram is still able to type after snapping his keyboard in half

talented

after sleeping on it, i decided i no longer give enough of a shit about this to do something selfish myself. i'll either use my role or not use my role depending on where public opinion sways

happy to consider all options

actually, i'm not particularly happy about it, but since the swap has already happened, i'm open to it i suppose?

*shrug*

gonna shit, shower, shave (yes, i felt this personal information relevant enough to the game to share with you all) and mull this over some more

[zMuffinMan]

oh i see

@kokichi yes it is, and it should be obvious what eddie means by that

that is another option to consider i suppose

[zMuffinMan]

it occurs to me there's probably 4 group-manipulating roles in this game

swapper, self-swapper, mover, self-mover

that would be nice symmetry; kudos to implosion for thinking that up, if that's the case

[zMuffinMan]

probably not

but it's also the kind of thing i would consider if i were designing the roles though, purely to counter-act that speculation

[zMuffinMan]

is it possible to just ignore him? it's a silly gimmick but i sincerely doubt he's doing it with any ill intent (if anything, it's slightly mocking the stereotypes you're talking about)

anyway, i'll be catching up on the pages i missed while asleep between things at work

[zMuffinMan]

don't kid yourself, your idea was just bad and you'd have been better off trying to do that while i was asleep

[zMuffinMan]

why would i use my swap first when i was

specifically advocating not swapping at all

? the sole exception i was willing to compromise on (specifically because i can't stop someone using their role if they want to anyway) was wisdom swapping someone out then lynching group 2 anyway, but even this is less than optimal (it's better than the alternatives though)

besides, your plan ignored the wishes of literally every other player; the people who wanted the swapping to occur either wanted to swap out someone who wasn't wisdom (DV wanted you, eddie wanted kokichi) and then lynch your group OR they wanted to swap in someone who they thought was town and lynch another group (g3). the players who didn't want the swapping to occur didn't want it to occur so that's that

not to mention i wouldn't trust wisdom to follow the plan you laid out anyway

PS: no one is 'trusting' me to do anything here

[zMuffinMan]

when a sizeable number of people agree to the swaps

no one agreed with your idea, though

so what's your point?

btw

wisdom's whole complaint was, "i don't want to lynch a group with 3 people i think are town in it even though it has confirmed scum"

i was saying, "i don't want any swaps to occur - lynch the group that has confirmed scum in it" (because this absolutely, 100% guarantees a scum flip unless kokichi is just the single worst VI in the history of mafia)

the sole compromise that would have at least been a good middle ground was wisdom swapping out one of his town reads for one of his scum reads and lynching group 2 after that

this would have eradicated wisdom's concerns with lynching 3 players he thinks are town (it gets reduced to 2, which is FAR FROM BEING THE BAD THING HE WAS MAKING IT OUT TO BE) and while it's suboptimal from the perspective that he could potentially swap out the sole scum in the group, it at least means we'd know with 100% certainty that the person he swapped out was scum tomorrow if everyone else flipped town so we still have guaranteed information going forward

this was the most i was ever willing to compromise since it alleviates all of my concerns that involve wisdom potentially being scum (and possibly with kokichi), which your plan did not

which reminds me, even if he didn't agree with the correct play, his unwillingness to see the obvious solution (the optimal compromise THAT OTHER PEOPLE WHO HE ASKED FOR OPINIONS ADVOCATED) was part of why i was never going to trust him

instead we have what wisdom actually did and there's no guarantee of information like there would have been in the other scenarios. for example, tell me what anyone can say with 100% certainty if we lynch group 3 today (with or without my swap) and everyone flips town. go on, i'll be waiting here while you stumble for an answer that doesn't exist

[zMuffinMan]

anyway, i'm going to do some ISO-diving when i get home and decide what i want to do today and what i think is best (maybe an hour from now)

[zMuffinMan]

Same as what we can say now. Except with an increased chance of 2 scum in group 2. Probably points to one of the PR claimers.

sorry, but you're dead wrong. this is largely irrelevant to the game right now (and heavily theory-based) so i'll spoiler it but read the following if you want to know why you are wrong about the current situation being the same as the one with zero swaps

Spoiler:

the following is talking about the current situation vs the situation where we lynched without swapping, just to illustrate why "the same as what we can say now" is completely and utterly incorrect

i'm going to try to simply illustrate this with the 5 possible scenarios (feel free to ignore the ones where i suppose that you're scum, i'm just including them for completeness):

1) scum-wisdom, scum-kokichi, town-buj
2) scum-wisdom, town-kokichi, town-buj
3) scum-wisdom, town-kokichi, scum-buj
4) town-wisdom, scum-kokichi, town-buj
5) town-wisdom, town-kokichi, scum-buj

(note #1: i'm not including the scenario town-wisdom, scum-kokichi, scum-buj because that just seems absurd to me - the logic in the following would be the same though)
(note #2: pine and riku have been left out of these because worst-case scenario assumes they're town)
(note #3: i'm also leaving out scum-wisdom, scum-kokichi, scum-buj for what should be obvious reasons when looking at worst-case scenarios)

with NO swapping, lynching group 2, the worst case scenarios are:
1)

2 dead scum

, town can look back at who said what about wisdom's plan to lynch a different group and town can look back at what people said about kokichi's claim
2)

1 dead scum

, town can look back at who said what about wisdom's plan to lynch a different group
3)

2 dead scum

, town can look back at who said what about wisdom's plan to lynch a different group and town can look back at who called buj town and why
4)

1 dead scum

, town can look back at what people said about kokichi's claim
5)

1 dead scum

, town can look back at who called buj town and why

with swapping, lynching group 3, the worst case scenarios are:
1)

0 dead scum

, town doesn't know who is scum in the trio of {wisdom, kokichi, buj} or even whether there is more than one
2)

0 dead scum

, town doesn't know who is scum in the trio of {wisdom, kokichi, buj} or even whether there is more than one
3)

0 dead scum

, town doesn't know who is scum in the trio of {wisdom, kokichi, buj} or even whether there is more than one
4)

0 dead scum

, town doesn't know who is scum in the trio of {wisdom, kokichi, buj} or even whether there is more than one
5)

0 dead scum

, town doesn't know who is scum in the trio of {wisdom, kokichi, buj} or even whether there is more than one

do you notice a common theme here? do you see a pattern? do you see the difference between the two scenarios?

the counter-argument here is "but muffin, what about reads?"

the answer to this is simple: you shouldn't be gambling games on your reads being correct when there is a clearly optimal alternative. if your reads are correct, they'll be correct tomorrow as well. but if your reads are incorrect, you screw town

and it doesn't matter what your reads are; if someone has information that guarantees scum, you do what's necessary to guarantee the scum lynch

this is just basic theory. i'm sorry, but there is no sensible counter-argument and there is no argument to be had here

being confident about reads is all fine and dandy, but making decisions based on the assumption that you're right when there is a clearly superior alternative (in terms of how badly things could turn out in the absolute worst-case scenario) is how towns lose games

if you want to discuss the theory behind this or anything else i'm writing, i'm more than happy to post-game or when we're both dead but it should probably be kept out of the game for now (thus the spoiler)

And who agreed to that solution of yours apart from you? There were still people opposed to that. I don't actually remember you saying it I thought you were advocating for a group 2 lynch without swaps the whole time. You and dramon did not seem flexible on that point and THAT I was strongly opposed to.

i'm not taking credit for the solution since i think others would have come to the same conclusion independently, but the solution i suggested was also suggested by DV and eddie

here's some quotes!

Spoiler:

that's basically why the ONLY alternative i might consider is swapping exactly ONE player out of group 2 and lynching it. any other scenario is suboptimal play. and even that is suboptimal, but whatever

at best i'd be willing to accept one swap (say, buj) because at least there exists a possibility of swapping a different scum player in and in the unlikely event they all flip town then buj is scum anyway (i doubt this happens, but this is the absolute worst case scenario)

if you had control of the swap, who would you swap (if anyone) DV?

I would swap Bu and Fitz and still lynch group 2 I think

this is one of the only options i'd actually be fine with. it's the option i suggested to wisdom if people really want him to use his swap

if he tries to use it selfishly and lynch outside of group 2, i think i'm still going to swap him afterward

or i might sleep on it and reconsider -- i suppose the other option is him doing his selfish swap, me swapping someone like hf and just lynching the group after it but that's not as good as just lynching group 2 i think

i already made it clear what i think is optimal

(plus the alternative i think is reasonable too)

i think eddie's already posted his own quotes where he agreed with the gist of the alternative i suggested (i think he was even suggesting it before i was maybe, though he had a preference for swapping out kokichi)

maybe all this was missed in the spam-fest (though i guarantee wisdom read it)

The whole basis for the 100% guaranteed scum thing is that koki is telling the truth or is scum. If he is scum he has to be the only scum in group 2 otherwise it's a dumb ass move and koki is way too smart for that.

no, this is wrong too. see: the fact that people are considering lynching group 3 right now. if wisdom and kokichi are scum together and the play that wisdom is trying to push actually goes through, then this was actually a *smart* plan

but yes, the basis for lynching group 2

was

that kokichi is telling the truth or scum and it nets us at least 1-2 (or unlikely as it might be, 3) scum as a result

now lynching group 2 potentially yields 0 scum (but would confirm riku as scum in that case)

this is possibly still a better outcome than lynching group 3, i'm undecided about that and still thinking over the scenarios here

I was saying if we took the time to agree to the swaps and swap orders then town would be in control of your PRs and we would be able to trust you both because lying would be suicide for either of you.

ok. and i'm telling you that any plan that involved swapping more than one person out of group 2 followed by lynching it was bad, and that plan is still worse than not swapping at all

that's why i never would have agreed to swap first, even apart from other issues with your plan

that's why i kept insisting the only alternative i'd consider was swapping someone out for someone else followed by lynching group 2

[zMuffinMan]

weighing up the pros and cons of not swapping and lynching G2 vs swapping one of pine or hf

or dv

and lynching G3

i think the former is still technically optimal, but im gonna start doing some re-reading to firm up reads

[zMuffinMan]

i know that wasn't your idea - that wasn't the point

i'm not accounting for the possibility of all 3 of you being town because i'm looking at worst-case scenarios... of course in the scenario that all 3 of you are town, it's good to swap the other two out. the point that has been made many, many, many, many times is that this is far from a certainty... you say you think that's likely. ok. i disagree. or rather, it's not something i feel strongly enough to practically bet a game on

there are no confirmed town players

that play was the least risky play, actually - that's why it was optimal - no other play guarantees one scum dead

at minimum

if we had swapped kokichi out and wisdom flipped scum, i would not consider kokichi confirmed town

not going to talk about the wisdom logic, but you're wrong

wisdom's swap hasn't entirely tainted G2; if it's all town (or all town minus the REAL MAN), that confirms riku as scum. if the REAL MAN is scum, it means 1 dead, 1 confirmed. that's still better than the worst case scenario with a G3 lynch but i'm considering the option - at least, i'll be taking public opinion into account! i think that's a

wise

thing to do! (yes, i'm hilarious, you don't need to point this out, i already know)

[zMuffinMan]

i'm repeating myself a bit here, but you can go on and on about how there are scenarios where wisdom's plan is better

and yes, it's true that wisdom's plan IS indeed better in those scenarios

but

it's not a risk i would take without being almost certain of particular reads and at this stage of the game i'm nowhere near that certain

the worst case if i was needlessly paranoid: 1 dead scum and plenty of information
the worst cases if my paranoia was founded: sling-shotted to lylo in a terrible position

[zMuffinMan]

If you decide to switch don't do it without taking input.

i... am taking input

at the very least, i probably won't yolo swap wisdom

unless i feel like it

[zMuffinMan]

@buj,

i have a whole bunch of thoughts about this setup and theory with regards to choices like in this game, regardless of whether they're right or wrong, that i was planning to go into (and i promise i will) either in the dead thread or post-game (this is just a really interesting setup with so many different variations in ways it could be played and ways things could play out that i really want to try playing it multiple times from both perspectives)

wait until either we're both dead or the game is over so the thread isn't bogged down any more than it currently is, though

anyway, back to reading

[zMuffinMan]

The funny part is that when we net 2-3 scum as a result of my plan dram muffin and co will just call me "lucky" and "you just flipped a coin for your reads" and stuff
Ive seen it a million times

i promise i won't do this (honestly, if you are town, then despite the fact that i'm kind of pissed off that you did what you did, i'm not going to be sour about anything; i just think that sooner or later you will falter if you're too over-confident, even if you happen to be right here)

i will point out the following, though: if it really is as simple as pine+riku+1 then lynching group 2 in the first place OR doing the alternative i suggested would have resulted in a similar outcome

[zMuffinMan]

oh, i figured cakez was the 4th one actually (also "mover" was just my way of describer what i thought it would do)

i don't really think cakez is scum though

without thinking about it too deeply, i'm inclined to say use it since it reduces the overall numbers dead today if people are actually going to lynch group 3

[zMuffinMan]

yeah, that's why i want you to use it!

[zMuffinMan]

If both of you survive today we get no info in that front

realistically if he's scum, he's probably going to use it anyway and if he's town, it's a waste when it's better to maintain a higher number

if him flipping is information, so is you flipping (

except you're confirmed town so that's bad obviously

)

but i'm sure you're not going to lie down and die either

[zMuffinMan]

I’m a little put out that I might not be lynched. I was kind of looking forward to the dead thread.

don't worry! i'll still most likely grant your wish!

[zMuffinMan]

this is more symbolic than anything at the moment, but:

Vote: Group 2

[zMuffinMan]

yeah. here's the thing

even before cakez's claim i was pretty much considering that lynching group 2 was still the best play today; cakez's claim does nothing to change this

how interesting that wisdom is pushing the TvS angle and suddenly suggesting that a mechanical lynch (based on role) is a good thing

[zMuffinMan]

btw, wisdom, do you currently think dram is scum or why did you switch your choice to the REAL MAN?

[zMuffinMan]

cakes already scumclaimed by doing the 180

what does this mean?

[zMuffinMan]

I said it the moment you suggested those roles exist that not all are town

no, you didn't. or if you did i missed it. i remember you asking me the question, though

but for someone who has been so strongly pushing that we shouldn't make the OPTIMAL CHOICE because of reads, i find it hilarious that you can push that angle without blinking an eyelid

who actually has a townread on wisdom and why?

[zMuffinMan]

i put it in the same category as someone asking a benign "do you think everyone in your neighbourhood is town?" question

[zMuffinMan]

You're acting as if im pushing something thats against my reads
Its been no secret im scumreading you and cakez

no

i'm pointing out that you're now making a strictly mechanical claim (that one of cakez and i must be scum based on role)

this isn't a reads-based claim

[zMuffinMan]

A role that can only move itself has ZERO Town utility and TONS of scum utility

this isn't true

it has potential town utility (i can think of one such example off the top of my head. if he was in a group D1 that kokichi used his role on and returned all town, scum would be trying to put him in groups with them all game - the role counteracts that)

[zMuffinMan]

I dont think based on roles they are tvs. Since scum probably have some power that has not been claimed yet. I could see scum being able to move 2 people from one group to another

i sincerely doubt there exists a scum role outside the 4 claimed (or softed) roles that can manipulate groups

if scum have a group-manipulation role (and they probably do), it's one of these 4

[zMuffinMan]

Muffin could just be bad town. I dont see why he'd keep arguing as scum when he can save himself

Because hes now trying to lynch group 2 and save his buddies

save

what

buddies?

cakez, who you're saying i can't be scum with?

dram, who you're saying is town?

from your POV, the only one i could possibly be scum with in this group is riku

[zMuffinMan]

from your POV, the only one i could possibly be scum with in this group is riku

Riku, sure
Or i could be wrong about dram abd cakez
Or you could be trying to avoid having to swap pine/g1 scum into 3
In any case trying to lynch g2 is scum motivated

no,

you just said that what i'm doing is to try and save my buddies

that directly implies you think that i'm trying to reduce the number of scum lynched by doing something here

now you're backtracking on that and suggesting "oh, i could be wrong"

but that's not what you were implying with that statement

PS: so now i can be scum with cakez and his role flipping doesn't mean anything at all actually (or it only means something if he's town)?

[zMuffinMan]

i really do hope people are actually reading and paying attention to all of wisdom's recent posts

[zMuffinMan]

no shit? do you want a medal for figuring that one out?

[zMuffinMan]

no, G2 is still the ONLY group in this game that either guarantees at least one scum flip OR confirms riku is scum

the logic from earlier still applies now

stop pretending this is something i've only recently said when i've been SAYING THIS THE WHOLE FUCKING TIME

[zMuffinMan]

how will his claim incriminate me further wisdom?

are you claiming there are mechanical reasons to assume something?

[zMuffinMan]

you're conveniently twisting things to suit your narrative

i have been pushing G2 the entire time

cakez recent claim doesn't change this

but you're acting like cakez's claim is the motivation for it

[zMuffinMan]

Yes, again, all the group roles arent town
And specifically the self-targetting ones are good for scum so they can save themselves

right

this implies cakez is town, though. if he's scum, then your point is moot

you can't have your cake and eat it too, wisdom

(plus the idea that your role can't just as easily benefit scum is funny - each of the group manipulation roles serve a specific purpose in a given context - yours, for example, would allow you to shift scum buddies out of groups)

[zMuffinMan]

(btw, that last part is a real assumption i'm working on at the moment)

[zMuffinMan]

you're using an assumption about the setup to push a mechanical idea (that cakez or i must be scum) and you're trying to pass it off as "reads-based"

there is nothing reads-based about this assumption and there's no actual reason to assume that cakez and i must be a T-S pair, but you're pushing the idea like one of us flipping town would incriminate the other

[zMuffinMan]

that's his strategy though

seems to be working; people think he's town

[zMuffinMan]

I am not
But now that cakez claimed this you figure that his flip will incriminate you further
So youre pushing g2 even more

This sounds like you think I'm town now??

exactly

i'm going to reiterate;

anyone reading wisdom as town, why?

[zMuffinMan]

Also i consider myself pretty transparent and obvtown in this game so i have a very hard time seeing what muffin is doing as town

ha, ha...

the funny thing is i thought your early pushing on your own group

was

coming from a town mindset

then the claim came out and you suddenly changed your tune and decided lynching your own group was unwise

this is what initially made me wary of you and this is why i started rethinking the best course of action today

and everything you've done since then has made me even more wary of you, from ignoring suggestions that you were acting like you were considering, to the swap on REAL MAN of all people (who NO ONE but you had or has any sort of strong townread on iirc), to constantly changing your tune about who's actually scum in your group and with who

[zMuffinMan]

to constantly changing your tune about who's actually scum in your group and with who

yeah forgive me for adapting my reads based on happenings

that's not what i was referring to

i'll find the quote in a sec

[zMuffinMan]

i want to know how you go from the assumption that there's 2 scum in your group to:

dram explain to me how it is protown from my pov to lynch myself and two people I am townreading so I can lynch 2 people only one of which will be scum 99% of the time

to now going back to thinking that both pine and riku are scum (or likely scum or however you want to put it)

[zMuffinMan]

that's not answering the question (or maybe i didn't phrase it properly); i want you to explain where/why you went from "two scum in my group" to "99% chance it's only one" to "there could be two" again

[zMuffinMan]

btw, your entire swap plan seemed to be based on the assumption that swapping out exactly one of pine/riku was better than keeping both in the group and trying to swap another scum player in there

the latter of which was suggested to you by people who you at least pretended to take suggestions from

before ignoring

[zMuffinMan]

cakez, do you think a G3 lynch is better than lynching G2 atm?

[zMuffinMan]

realistically, i don't see it happening either unless someone like buj or kokichi changes their mind and realises lynching G2 is still the best play (with no further swaps)

but i don't think it's an impossibility so *shrug*

it's still the best play today

[zMuffinMan]

It's not realistic because you're all saying crap like this.

nah, it's not realistic because of who's saying what about it, dram

the entirety of G2 (current G2) is supporting the G3 lynch

NSG i believe supports G3?
fitz has said he will hammer or something?
DV hasn't taken a stance on the current groupings but i'm not sure he still supports a G2 lynch

the numbers aren't there atm unless someone in G2 takes their head out of their ass

[zMuffinMan]

yeah, no

[zMuffinMan]

sorry, but which two scum are you imagining netting here?

because you've said you're assuming cakez and dram are town and only one of pine and riku is scum

[zMuffinMan]

oh right, you mean on the assumption that one of cakez and i is scum, it 'nets' two scum

heh

[zMuffinMan]

meh

i'm pretty sure today ends in a G3 lynch, dram

i want to see where DV's head is at right now but we still don't have the numbers for a G2 lynch

[zMuffinMan]

i think he's more than willing to look like a hypocrite to save himself but i could be wrong

[zMuffinMan]

can't really say it's a bad move for scum though, right?

which i apparently am

[zMuffinMan]

exactly! so not a terrible move after all

apologise to me

[zMuffinMan]

But then my townflip combined with a cakez townflip will wreck you, so you wont do it

eh, you clearly don't know me at all

i'd probably do it even if i were scum if someone double-dared me to

[zMuffinMan]

if i were told we absolutely had to lynch G3 for some reason today and i had free rein on who i chose, i think i'd swap you right now

but since

i've gotta at least pretend to look town

i'm not a wanker

i think it's probably better for everyone to decide as a whole, i'm most likely just going to go with the consensus swap (unless people keep voting before everyone has had a chance to chime in, in which case i'm just going to swap who i want)

[zMuffinMan]

@wisdom obv

[zMuffinMan]

I still think Wisdom is town

why?

[zMuffinMan]

not happening

i am 100% swapping with someone from G2 if it comes to lynching G3

but you're right, i should just go with my own reads and disregard public opinion

[zMuffinMan]

pine, the only reason i haven't swapped anyone, let alone wisdom, is that G2 is STILL the best lynch today so i'd prefer not swapping if i don't have to - this is becoming less likely a scenario, but i'm not willing to give up until there's no hope of it

that's why i want the people who currently aren't posting to chime in before i need to make a decision

that said, if any more voting occurs, i'm going to swap who i want and be done with it

[zMuffinMan]

yes

[zMuffinMan]

general agreement with things he said. Effort.

what things he said? what effort?

[zMuffinMan]

the group is currently L-3 by my count

any more voting means it's close enough to a lynch that i'm just going to do what i want before it happens

[zMuffinMan]

i don't know what you're asking but i'm going to nod sagely

[zMuffinMan]

if you mean public consensus about whether i should use my role, then that entirely depends on whether we're lynching my group

there's literally zero reason for me to be in the lynch group if i don't need to be in the lynch group, so no, i'm not going to listen to anyone who says "don't swap but we're still lynching G3"

[zMuffinMan]

like, if we're doing the suboptimal lynch, then i am 100% going to use my role to sort G2

there is no way i would allow town to do this stupid fucking lynch while letting the guilty on G2 go unresolved in the event you're scum

the only reason i swap pine is if more people want it (though i'm not strictly opposed to it because there's a chance one or both of pine+riku might be scum and my reads are just wrong - i'm not an arrogant enough wanker to believe i've solved the game)

That's not what you said earlier

yeah, the "or not" obviously implies if we're still lynching G2

please stop pretending to be fucking dense

[zMuffinMan]

you are not this stupid

there is 0% chance i stay in any group that's getting lynched if i can help it. and we both know that's the case regardless of my alignment, so stop trying to twist shit here

[zMuffinMan]

and i do not fucking believe for one second that you think that was a "defeatist" post rather than "i've sobered up and am no longer just going to use my role for juvenile revenge"

[zMuffinMan]

i don't think what cakez said is the smart thing to do

it's not what i'd do with his role

but just like with your role,

i have no control over people who want to make suboptimal plays

[zMuffinMan]

that's because you're trying to paint everything i'm doing as scummy when it's not, but i don't really mind - if anything, it might be helping to get the support i need to make G2 happen!

cakez's play is simply not what he should be doing and that's

regardless of his alignment

as well

[zMuffinMan]

yes

by pretending that id sacrifice myself for no good reason as town

if people can't see how disingenuous you're being, then theyre beyond hope

[zMuffinMan]

note for anyone following: this is wisdom trying to suggest i should let myself die after calling out pine and riku for doing exactly that

[zMuffinMan]

there's no difference

you literally argued with riku that he should not want to be in a lynch group if he's town

do i need to go back and pull up the quotes?

[zMuffinMan]

while you being dead would give credibility to everything youve said

YOU KNOW AS WELL AS ANYONE THAT NO ONE EVER LISTENS TO DEAD PEOPLE

if riku is town and i do not swap, G2 IS STILL UNRESOLVED

if you're scum and pine is town, you are 100% pushing him tomorrow

no one is going to give a shit that i called it

IF i need to use my role, i am 100% using it to sort your group

your group has a FUCKING GUILTY IN IT

letting myself be lynched is not an option

you're trying to paint this as scum-motivated. it's not. anyone should be able to see how fucking disingenuous you're being

[zMuffinMan]

Who cares about the eyes of others
You reduce the possibilities of scum getting lynched when you put yourself, who you know is town, in a lynchgroup

Who cares about the eyes of others
You reduce the possibilities of scum getting lynched when you put yourself, who you know is town, in a lynchgroup

Who cares about the eyes of others
You reduce the possibilities of scum getting lynched when you put yourself, who you know is town, in a lynchgroup

Who cares about the eyes of others
You reduce the possibilities of scum getting lynched when you put yourself, who you know is town, in a lynchgroup

Who cares about the eyes of others
You reduce the possibilities of scum getting lynched when you put yourself, who you know is town, in a lynchgroup

[zMuffinMan]

i honestly don't know what to fucking say if anyone swallows your bullshit

[zMuffinMan]

yeah, come on, wisdom

try to explain how #1308 means something else

go ahead

you're not being disingenuous at all

[zMuffinMan]

kokichi,

i don't want to switch - i want to lynch G2...

for effect, since people still don't seem to get it:

V

O

T

E

:

G

R

O

U

P

2

[zMuffinMan]

Again, those quotes were about Riku wanting to put himself in the lynchgroup. It makes no sense to do that from a town pov.
You staying in if enough people want it is different and makes sense from a town pov.

that is NOT what you said in #1308

[zMuffinMan]

Who do you think is scum in group 2

here's my current working theory:

wisdom is scum
he swapped REAL MAN into his group after pretending he was considering dram though he was never really considering it - REAL MAN, a guy who nobody but him thought looked town enough to warrant that - REAL MAN, despite multiple people suggesting alternatives that didn't involve his selfish lynch
i think it's unlikely you're scum with him; i think ever since he saw your claim, he's been trying to come up with a good way to make sure G2 isn't lynched

it saddens me deeply that it seems to be working and most people seem to be ignoring what he's doing

this is why i want group 2 lynched; even if i'm wrong, the ABSOLUTE worst case scenario is that we have riku confirmed as scum

the worst case scenario if we don't lynch group 2 though is town losing because there's enough confusion about who's actually scum in group 2 that he can get away with (if, for example, pine is town, that's his pocket mislynch tomorrow)

[zMuffinMan]

Muffin you need to swap quickly because deadline before lynch occurs is auto scum win

we have 3 days and my switch adds time to the deadline if we go below 48 hours; the deadline is not an issue