[EV] Purgatory

[mith]

Heh.

So, the reason this happens for 1 Mafia is that there are effectively P slots for the Mafia to end up with, and as P grows larger the ratio between hell (win) and heaven (loss) slots goes to 1/2.

At first glance, I would have expected this to be similar for more Mafia. The obvious difference, though, is that you can reach a final judgement which is not a simple "put Mafia in one slot or the other" choice - that is, if you hit 3:3, you have a 1/2 chance of losing immediately, without getting to try to put both the other scum in the right place, while deciding correctly is only worth 1 "point".

All that said, at 3:4 I still get an EV of 17/35, and I'd be really surprised if 3:6 drops that far. Are you sure your calculations are correct?