[EV] Purgatory

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implosion
implosion
he/him
Polymath
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User avatar
implosion
he/him
Polymath
Polymath
Posts: 14416
Joined: September 9, 2010
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Location: zoraster's wine cellar

Post Post #2 (isolation #0) » Tue May 15, 2018 11:25 am

Post by implosion »

How are you calculating this? Programmatically? I could very easily be missing something but the asymptotic numbers look wrong to me.
Let's try 3 mafia, 2t townies

This appears to converge to 25% EV from above as the number of town grows arbitrarily large, just like the last setup.
I think this (and in fact any fixed number of mafia with an increasing number of town) should converge to 50%. As t grows large, the probability that all of the mafia are sorted into either hell or heaven by the time that the game reaches a judgment day grows to 1, because like mith says they're effectively randomly being put into "slots" and the number of slots that could be alive in a judgment day stays fixed. But then effectively all 3 mafia are being randomly sorted into heaven and hell, which should give a 50% chance that the majority wind up in heaven and a 50% chance that the majority wind up in hell.

That said, if this is some programming error, I am interested to see what the setup that these actually are the EVs for is :p
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