Mini 2011: Partition Mafia (Game Over)

[BuJaber]

Lol this game would destroy any mislynch records.

Yeah putting me and wisdom and koki in one group is a trap.
But only nsg, wisdom, koki, and I would know that.
Would be really ballsy to make the biggest group all town because it's scarier for town to lynch the biggest group. I think we might be looking at 2 scum 3 townies.

I think it was a deliberate move to put us together in one group. So I want to lynch either group 1 or group 2 because I don't know anyone in group 3.

If you are an alt in group 3 expose your main.. unless you're chicken.

FREEEEEDOM! VOTE: Group 2

Guessing it's 2 scum 3 townies. Meaning lose 3 to get 2. Leaving a group of all townies and a group where you would lose 3 to get just 1 scum. Group 2 is the way to go.

[BuJaber]

i do think "i would prefer..." is more natural from town than "i'm town and would prefer..." though, especially in a setup like this where, with the current split at least, town dies D1 no matter what

I am inclined to agree with this

But the rest of your post is a little ehhh because well.. words < actions. Kind of easy to say something like that when you aren't actually in the group of your biggest scumread.

[BuJaber]

Its troubling me than other than kokichi everyone else in 2 interpreted the grouping like I did, but its still the case
Im put in 2 so we dont lynch 2

Do we or do we not lynch 2?

Getting mixed signals

[BuJaber]

2 has been too easy to push

Problem with that is only people from 2 are pushing it

That is slightly worrying. I would have thought other groups would be interested in voting for 2 also. I don't know if this confirms the idea that town would be afraid to lynch the biggest group, and therefore we have more scum in 2 than out, OR if scum did go the ballsier route and put 5 townies in one group but they don't want to ne caught pushing it.

Here's a real tinfoil theory not real men's 5 posts that I admit I may not have understood but all seem to say the same thing:

As far as I can see only group 1 was pushed by someone not in the group. What if that's because group 1 contains 2 scum and their partner the 3rd scum is pushing it for WIFOM?

That said.. I am pinged a little by realmen and muffin. Feels to me like they're pulling some 'too scummy to be scum' shenanigans to get town cred. But I can't see why they would themselves together in one of the smaller groups AND bring attention to themselves like that. Is that what he's talking about when he says REAL MEN? Becauase it sure as shit would be ballsy.

All in all I'd say my preference is group 2 >> group 3 >> group 1

I think there's a big chance group 1 has 1 scum in it (1, 1, 1 or 1,0,2 or 1,2,0 are imo the different possibilities we're dealing with) but activity wise seems to be the towniest group.

[BuJaber]

But I can't see why they

put

would themselves together in one of the smaller groups

Missing word 'put'

[BuJaber]

And I put it in the wrong place ..

[BuJaber]

So nobody in group 1 is voting for group 1?

@Cake - yes I think so. I think muffin and RMOJ were trying to wind people up. I'm not saying it's necessarily scummy but it's anti-town. RMOJ also used a whole lot of words to basically say "scum must be in group 3 because they put me in group 3". (If I misunderstood tell me but I think that's a concise summary of all of his theories). This is more or less what anybody who voted for their own group has said, so why did RMOJ need to do it in a 'showy' way?

[BuJaber]

Bah.. it's 1/1/1 split isn't it... group 1 votes for group 3 group 2 votes for group 2 group 3 votes for group 1 because scum don't have to influence town all groups are pretty much the same to them they want to leave the choice to town. I also suspect that the scum in group 1/group 3 are from the late posters.

RMOJ/fitz/pine ? Seems the most likely team if 1/1/1 split

Maybe dramonic/koki/nsg
Because I don't like how dramonic called koki "japanese name person".

Pine and nsg because both sort of implied they'd be ballsy with the split if scum. I find it hard to believe 2 townies would say the same thing.

[BuJaber]

Pine and nsg because both sort of implied they'd be ballsy with the split if scum. I find it hard to believe 2 townies would say the same thing

*regarding how they would play as scum.

[BuJaber]

Unfortunately this is partition mafia so I wouldn't be voting for

you

I'd be voting for your entire group. And I'm still unsure if that's the best group to lynch because there's still plenty of good resons to vote for my own group.

Also I've convinced myself that group 1 must contain 1 scum. So there's 1/3 chance your group has 0 scum.

[BuJaber]

But I'm also a bit perplexed by the over-the-top group talk here. Sure, I get that it's the theme of the game but I struggle to understand the relevance of statements like "No one not from Group 2 is voting for Group 2". I don't get the point! There are

three scum, not 10

.

That's sort of the point.
You'd think that if group 2 had 2 scum in it then you'd expect at least some of the 7 townies not in group 2 to have some suspicion regarding group 2.


Ignoring the mild dissing of our scum abilities muffin has a point about so many of us group 2 'ers voting for our group.
Which leads to another reason why RMOJ pings me. He is
a) the only one to make a big deal about him self-voting
b) arbitrarirly picking which among the self-voters is a "REAL MAN"
And c) changed his definition of manliness when he started taunting me to vote for his group claiming THAT would be the ballsy option.

[BuJaber]

With varying degrees of subtlety group 3 has people from each of the 3 groups willing to vote for it.
Could be scum lead.


Pedit - RMOJ yeah but they still have to keep doing these partititions every day thereafter. It might end faster but I think it's probably balanced.

[BuJaber]

Okay maybe "scum-led" is too agressive... how about "scum-influenced". You don't think 3 scum can "inception" town into getting 7 votes together?

Scum never have majority. What they have is knowledge that they use to manipulate townies to vote for the wagon they want.

[BuJaber]

2 of {Kokichi, Pine, Riku}
1 of {Eddie, Realmen, Cakez}

So by PoE you are putting dramon and fitz in the town pile.


I'm not comfortable dropping my suspicion of them yet.
It would be okay if fitz was also in group 3 but him being a suspect brings all 3 groups into play.

And I have sneaking suspicion that if it's a 1/1/1 split then nsg is behind it. (Obviously they can't be together in that case)

[BuJaber]

Let's just bite the bullet and vote group 2.
Worst case scenario we have 5-3 left but we would know for sure that one groups 1 & 3 HAD to have at least 2 scum in it, which would make associative reads easier.

Basically that worst case scenario doesn't seem terrible so it's worth it.

[BuJaber]

@riku - how difficult is it to read kokichi's name, and call him koki? Especially when seeing everyone else calling him that. I just got a sense that he's doing it to downplay how much contact he has had with koki.

@nsg -
Based on individual reads:
From most supicious to least:
dramon and RMOJ.
Koki, pine and fitz
Riku, nsg,
DV, Eddie, muffin
Cake, wisdom

But based on voting behavior I'm a little paranoid about lynching group 3 because several have expressed interest in doing so. Also I can't shake the feeling that group 2 was purposefully made the largest group. I mean yeah it's the most even split you can get which also may suggest 1/1/1 split, but still they put an interesting combination of players in it and I just don't think it was random. Group 1 is the least active in general which makes it difficult to deal with. Unlike a normal game I don't think scum would want to avoid the discussion here as much as in a normal game. I'm inclined to townread the inactivity.

The other thing that makes me not want to lynch group 3 is that my scumread on RMOJ sort of depends on him having a partner in group 3. If there is only 1 scum in group 3 then it most likely isn't him. Because I don't think he would have been so explicit about voting for his own group if he were alone in there. I think if scum he is using a mix of reverse psychology and wifom to make us avoid voting for group 3; and I just don't think it's worth the risk to do so unless there are 2 scum in group 3.

[BuJaber]

@riku - how difficult is it to read kokichi's name, and call him koki? Especially when seeing everyone else calling him that. I just got a sense that he's doing it to downplay how much contact he has had with koki

Sorry this was a response to Cake not riku.

[BuJaber]

So if you're town you're still happy with group 2 then.

[BuJaber]

I don't think this makes much sense. How does saying "japanese name person" downplay contact?

It implies he forgot the actual name.

@fitz - If G1 has 1 scum then G3 has either 0 or 1 or 2. So 1/3 chance of having 0.
Late to posting meant posting after most have already posted. I didn't know about your weekend drop in activity. That said if you see my recent posts I've begun to lean towards townreading inactivity in a game like this. Though now I know that's NAI for you either way.
I really like your 266. It shows some similar trains of thought I've had myself. And if any group is going to have 0 scum it would be yours.



Are people serious about the pr claims? I thought this was confirmed all vanilla/goons?

[BuJaber]

Follow up would be to pine: if it's a vanilla game what do claims at L-1 tell us?

[BuJaber]

This game is pseudo-nightless. The mafia have a 1-shot nightkill that they may use any night after night 0. They may not use their kill if it would cause the mafia to have as many players alive as there are town players alive. There are no other killing abilities in the game. There are no other night actions in the game.

So theoretically we could have day PRs.

[BuJaber]

Wisdom would you be willing to vote for group 3 or is that not an option for you?

[BuJaber]

People talking about how scumsided this is or whatever.. you are assuming our ability to find scum remains the same throughout when it should get better as every lynch is more educated than the lynch before it.

Not that it matter because scumsided or not we all signed up for this game and have to play it. You can complain about balance later. Tell me where the 3 scum are. That's all that matters.

Riku - I never said it wasn't reachy. It was an early game read. It is inherently less evidence based than late game reads. But if I turn out to be right please give me the credit I deserve for that scum sniping.

Let's talk about dramon individually - the people who townread him.. what is townie about their posts? I've read their ISO multiple times and don't see anything that could give you that impression. I can accept a null read but please link one post that is townie. Because I read indifference at best and intentional fluff at worst.

[BuJaber]

Kidding me? Of course I will in this game.
. Even if I'm wrong I'm still likely to hit scum anyway.

Besides I'm not basing my lynch decision on the dramon/koki association. That was just one of 2 scumteams I proposed for IF the split is 1/1/1. Though I suppose this particular pair could be in 0/1/2 split but I'm really doubting scum had the cajones to be put 2 scum in G3.

[BuJaber]

and by that I mean group 3 because it lynches scum 100% of the time

You think group 2 could have 0?

[BuJaber]

Eddie 3 questions:
Do you think it's possible group 2 has 0 scum?
Do you think it's possible group 1 has 0 scum?
If yes to both do you think it's possible they could have 0 scum at the same time, ie 3 scum in group 3?

[BuJaber]

The only thing that was stopping me from voting group 3 was that I thought RMOJ and dramon are too scummy to be scum and my strongish townread of cake. I read cakes ISO and I couldn't see what made him a strongish townread for me . So if I take out these two factors group 3 becomes a pretty attractive lynch.
I'm also not convinced eddie is town but we do agree on one thing - group 3 has to contain 1 scum at least. No way all 4 of them are town.

But I'm paranoid thinking about the wagon progression:
why was group 2 not hammered? I'm pretty sure we got to L-2. Maybe L-1 if I missed a vote.. isn't it weird considering we only needed 4 votes from outside the group for a lynch? Even if there's 1 scum in group 1 not 0 scum benefit a lot from lynching the big group. If scum aren't in 2 why didn't they?

[BuJaber]

i mean they'd look sus if they suddenly voted for 2 there

How bad is that really in a game like this though if the benefit is 4-5 townies dead? And also generally speaking people don't scumread both the hammerer and the L-1 vote together.

[BuJaber]

On another topic since 2 is dying today - can we talk about REALMEN? I just looked at their ISO and it's entirely shitposting, mechanics talk and unexplained reads. There's no real gamesolving. IDK how I had them at null.

About time


Wisdom: you definitely swap koki out. Koki is either 100% telling the truth or is scum. The flip would tell us the answer. Also everyone has suspects from group 3. I for one am not townreading any of them except possibly cake. Swap koki with realmen. Or swap koki with dramon. Or maybe even muffin because I'm not seeing what makes him so town either except for the fact that he's agreeing with dramon which is suicide for scum. Because dramon's strategies are horrible imo.

And for those doubting koki -
Why did he vote for group 2 long before claiming?
How would he know about wisdom's role?


I like the idea of locktowning koki tomorrow, and we have a good chance of hitting 2 scum if we swap him with someone in group 3.

Alternatively we can maybe swap DV or eddie with koki since there's some disagreement on who scum is in group 3. Like it's such a polarizing group.

[BuJaber]

I vote we swap koki with RMOJ

[BuJaber]

Swap dramon with wisdom & koki in your list and we'd be pretty close in terms of reads. But you currently have dramon way too high and wisdom/koki way too low imo.

[BuJaber]

@Dramon:

Confirmed scum is in group 2 as per koki's suggestion.

I see no reason to doubt him.

BUT even if he's lying there's still a good chance to hit scum in pine/riku. AND if not he'd be confirmed scum. I'm not worried about lylo as much as you seem to me. The day 2 partitions are going to tell you a LOT depending on where they put koki.

[BuJaber]

Group 3 wagon was starting to overtake group 2 and THEN koki claimed. That means he wasn't worried about group 2 getting lynched.
If he is scum pulling a gambit it's to protect someone from group 3. And honestly why would he do it just to protect 1 person? He'd have to be protecting 2 scum in group 3.
Or it's for WIFOM reasons and one of his partners is in group 2.

In both of these cases we swap him out with someone in group 3 and we have a very good chance of hitting scum.

But really he's just telling the truth so your point is void.

Besides you have plenty of other suspects in group 2 so I don't know why you're advocating against it.

Pedit - ah lol a 3rd claim.

Okay let's swap cake with koki and lynch group 3. How is THAT for guaranteeing a scum lynch for the maximum potential price of 3 townies.

Pedit pedit - wait what 4 claims? Muffin what's yours?

[BuJaber]

VOTE COUNT 1.4

1	2	3
DeasVail	BuJaber	dramonic
Eddie Cane	Kokichi Oma	REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE
havingfitz	Pine	SirCakez
northsidegal	riku	zMuffinMan
	Wisdom

Group 1

(3): SirCakez, dramonic, zMuffinMan

Group 2

(5): riku, BuJaber, Wisdom, Kokichi Oma, REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE

Group 3

(3): Eddie Cane, havingfitz, Pine
Not voting: 2 (DeasVail, northsidegal)

With 13 alive, it takes 7 votes to lynch.
Deadline is in (expired on 2018-05-20 23:00:00).

@Mod: confirm/deny that this is mountainous?

Cannot confirm or deny.

Did everyone just miss this vote count which put group 2 at L-2?

And RMOJ who's been advocating for self-voting out us there then quickly unvoted shortly after this vote count.

[BuJaber]

In both of these cases we swap him out with someone in group 3 and we have a very good chance of hitting scum.

OR we don't swap and have a 100% chance of hitting scum.

This is incredibly basic.

Except in your scenario we are guranteed only 1 scum.
At least with mine 1 scum is pretty guaranteed and a good chance of finding 2 scum.



Muffin do you townread and believe wisdom?

[BuJaber]

I won't argue with you anymore.. I have the best solution.

Muffin swaps himself with wisdom.
Wisdom swaps dramon with muffin.

Guaranteed 1-3 scum. And muffin and wisdom would be 2 confirmed and living townies.

Unless one of you actually thinks a swapping role can be scum. Because that seems bastardy to me.

[BuJaber]

(We lynch group 2 in this scenario obviously)

[BuJaber]

Bus driver is so different wtf

In a game where scum have all the power in deciding who goes in which group, giving them the power to change their mind during the day seems cruel and op to me. That is why it's bastardy.

The ONLY reason to give this role to scum would be to fuck with town into falsely townreading the player. It's bastardy.

[BuJaber]

One of them might be lying but I just can't fathom how actually giving scum this role is acceptable by anyone.

[BuJaber]

Bus driver is so different wtf

In a game where scum have all the power in deciding who goes in which group, giving them the power to change their mind during the day seems cruel and op to me. That is why it's bastardy.

The ONLY reason to give this role to scum would be to fuck with town into falsely townreading the player. It's bastardy.

If scum don’t have any roles like that then the game can be easily broken.

How so.. put 1 confirmed town with scum tomorrow. Force them to lynch them and kill the other confirmed town with your 1 shot.

It's not broken and town can still lose.

[BuJaber]

Bus driver is so different wtf

In a game where scum have all the power in deciding who goes in which group, giving them the power to change their mind during the day seems cruel and op to me. That is why it's bastardy.

The ONLY reason to give this role to scum would be to fuck with town into falsely townreading the player. It's bastardy.

It's like you think partitioning is bad for town.
It makes scum way easier to lynch.
Then again, there are people like you who don't want to lynch confirmed scum, so...

What's wrong with putting both you and koki in group 2. And putting wisdom and muffin in group 3. Also guuarantees 1 scum if we lynch 2 with the added benefit of protecting 2 townies.

If partitioning helps town what's the point of this setup anyway? Partitioning allows scum to manipulate the lynch.

Partitions gives clues to town and throughout the game we gain info from the partitions and flips. But partition in it's essence is scum's power. That's why they don't have normal night kills. They can guarantee town die with every lynch until we get to below 5 or less living members which is when they're forced to put 1 player alone in a group.

[BuJaber]

RMOJ putting koki and dramon in the group that we aren't lynching doesn't work because one of them is confirmed scum.

We have to trust one of them and lynch the other OR lynch both.

[BuJaber]

dram isn't actually a setup cop, buj...

What the hell.. then what he did is confusing and anti-town as hell. It completely distracted me and sent me off on a tangent with regards to the swaps.

I vote we swap koki with RMOJ

If you dont buy into the "koki might be scum" paranoia why are you against swapping pine/riku to group 3 and lynching group 3?

Because of muffin's claim I think we can use both of your abilities in a cooperate way to give us an even better option. Also because we disagree on RMOJ. Sure I'm less sure about my scumread of him but I'd feel a lot better not intentionally saving him from the lynch. He just has bugged me because he does a lot of posturing but hasn't been as consistent with it as he makes it seem. And he seems obsessed with willingness to die as the only basis for reading people. I also can't decide between cake and muffin. I was beginning to townread muffin based on conviction and tone but what he's saying is really bad.

Because I can agree with him that lynching group 3 is not the best move (assuming you both have swaps - if muffin is lying about the swap it's a different story obviously) but lynching group 2 without any swaps is DEFINITELY not the most 'optimal'. It is what scum would try to advocate as the safest option but it's lazy and while dramon and muffin are both right that guarantees 1 scum it also lynches 4 townies 98% of the time.

More on my suggestions coming uo. I need to think about it a little and write it in a separate post.

[BuJaber]

Okay first of all

Muffin swaps first

Wisdom doesn't reverse the swap.

We hammer after both swaps.

If any of these things are not done it is a scum claim from the actor.

Are we agreed so far?


Pedit - I don't like dramon at all this game. He's pretty much my number 1 scumread. I might ask you to swap him but it won't be to save him. It would be to put him in a lynchable group 2.

[BuJaber]

Yes cake would be a good choice. If he's scum we'll soon know. But I actually want both you and muffin alive that is why the order is important.

Committing to the order gives is a way of boosting our trust of both of you.

I'm trying not to let my reads influence this because otherwise I'd just be saving wisdom and koki and not giving a damn about anybody else.

[BuJaber]

So it would go like this:
Muffin swaps with wisdom.
Wisdom swaps muffin with dramon (or someone else from G3.. I won't go against majority I just really think it should be dramon)

Pine/riku contains 1 scum if koki is telling the truth. Koki dies if he's scum. 1 scum guaranteed.
Potential 2nd scum in piku/riku/dramon.

Muffin's agreement with this woild go along way into making him more credible with his push against group 2 all game. Also it involves him taking a leap of faith so we can take a leap of faith. Also since all of this should be agreed upon in thread lying about it later is a scumclaim in my book so a betrayal is not a total loss. And the worst case scenario 1 scum dies anyway which is what everybody who wanted group 2 lynched has been saying all game so they have no leg to stand on if they disagree.

I know it's better to lynch 4 people instead of 5 but there's no other way to save wisdom and still lynch both pine and riku.

And koki I'm sorry I wish there was a way you could live too but this might be the only way to get muffin to agree and it also guarantees the other people agreeing because they look like hypocrites if they refuse to lynch what would be 100% guaranteed scum regardless of how they read you.

[BuJaber]

Saving one of the swaps risk them getting killed at night.

[BuJaber]

Wisdom issue with that is muffin doesn't believe koki.

And it's easy to just call him scum for it but if he's town and doesn't believe koki he isn't going to swap riku/pine.. he'll save his ass by swapping someone else.

If muffin agrees to swap with riku and then lies about it that is an even bigger scum claim than him not going first (which already is in my book because difference between wisdom's ability and muffin's is that muffin can save himself by swapping into the group we put townies in while wisdom pretty much puts his faith in our voting ability) WE can fuck with wisdom but muffin can fuck with US. So if either of them is scum it's worse for us if muffin is scum so he has to go first.

Him refusing = scum because this is pretty basic stuff. Wisdom is not powerful without supporters. Muffin is.


But yeah if muffin agrees to swap with riku and then you swap pine with cake... or RMOJ if you really want... I'll lynch group 3.

I'm not prepared to lynch group 3 if dramon isn't in it. Obviously I'm putting my reads above everyone else's but I don't think I can be wrong about both dramon and RMOJ. One of them is for sure scum. And mayybe both.

[BuJaber]

UNVOTE:

Will vote after both swaps.

[BuJaber]

Bu and whoever else scumreads dram: No matter how stupid I think he's being here with sticking to the probabilities and such I think he is being genuine here. Cakez is waffly and I think has decent chances of being scum. Realmen agreeing with me makes me think he could be scum buddying me. muffin is going to use his swap. So I think dram's the best choice here.

Dram and muffin kept saying they wanted to lynch group 2 as is to "guarantee 1 scum dead". When I suggested seaps that guarantee 1 scum dead plus a possible 2nd or 3rd they ignored it.
They're not being genuine. They're trying to nuke this game by appealing to emotion to get townread or frustrating the motivation to play out of the players. Exhausted / emotional town make bad decisions.

Wis before you swap I'd recheck the bujaber townread. That'd be how this turns disastrous.

its ok i really think bujaber is town here

he's always more of an asshole when town

Do you know me? Who are you?



@fitz - I think you read the old version of my proposal(s). I'd like to hear your thoughts on the recent ones.
Though to me I can compromise on anything else as long as:
1. Muffin and wisdom announce their swaps before they do them.
2. Muffin swaps first.
3. Pine and riku are both lynched.

And dramon lynch would be a bonus that I think would give us an additional scum lynch.

Anything else I am flexible about.

[BuJaber]

So it would go like this:
Muffin swaps with wisdom.
Wisdom swaps muffin with dramon (or someone else from G3.. I won't go against majority I just really think it should be dramon)

Pine/riku contains 1 scum if koki is telling the truth. Koki dies if he's scum. 1 scum guaranteed.
Potential 2nd scum in piku/riku/dramon.

Muffin's agreement with this woild go along way into making him more credible with his push against group 2 all game. Also it involves him taking a leap of faith so we can take a leap of faith. Also since all of this should be agreed upon in thread lying about it later is a scumclaim in my book so a betrayal is not a total loss. And the worst case scenario 1 scum dies anyway which is what everybody who wanted group 2 lynched has been saying all game so they have no leg to stand on if they disagree.

I know it's better to lynch 4 people instead of 5 but there's no other way to save wisdom and still lynch both pine and riku.

And koki I'm sorry I wish there was a way you could live too but this might be the only way to get muffin to agree and it also guarantees the other people agreeing because they look like hypocrites if they refuse to lynch what would be 100% guaranteed scum regardless of how they read you.

TA-DA

[BuJaber]

Koki pine riku me and you in one group. GUARANTEED 1 scum if not 2 or 3.

Replace yourself out.

[BuJaber]

Go.
Fuck.
Yourself.

This is the 2nd time.

We are having a game-related disagreement. This is unacceptable behavior. We're not animals.

You can't play mafia and not make any assumptions at all. Scum will have a field day with us if we are only doing the "trust no one" approach.
In a normal mafia game if 2 people's posts contradict each other you'd never opt for ignoring both of them because you can't guarantee which is truthful. You would analyze each and lynch the one you feel is less believable.
Risking 4 town to lynch 1 scum just because we are too scared to trust our reads is bad play. Also there is info gained. Even with the worst case scenario that wisdom is the only scum in group 2 and we swap him out with a townie (which btw is a scenario that doesn't fit with everything that happened) we would know for a fact that wisdom is scum and that there were 2 scum outsude of group 2.

@eddie swapping koki out has the same end result. If you guys are not townreading anyone based on claims you can't say that wisdom might be scum so we can't not lynch him and then assume koki isn't lying too.

[BuJaber]

We could just speed lynch group 3 before muffin swaps.

I'm surprised nobody agreed about the swap order reasoning. Muffin is scum for refusing.
Saddens me that wisdom jumped the gun.

VOTE: group 3
Speed lynch come on. Muffin on the chopping block

[BuJaber]

You can disagree with who the swapped players are but the order I was absolutely 100% spot on with.

You don't give the stronger power role more power. We have now put all our balls in your clutch. I've seen towns trusting IC's less than these players are trusting you right now.

[BuJaber]

I had you as conftown until everyone suggested that these swapping powers could be scum.

These same 'cautious' people are now letting you do whatever you want.

If for some reason dramon and RMOJ play like this as town and wisdom got the 50-50 wrong with riku.. we're screwed. You'll just swap in a townie.

You going first means town has some control and they can protect themselves.

Not going first is pure selfishness on your part and recklessness on town's part for letting you.

[BuJaber]

Well not swapping is a different thing alltogether and it's a waste of a PR.

But when a sizeable number of people agree to the swaps if wisdom doesn't follow through he looks incredibly bad. You trust him based on mutual destruction.

My suggestions were up for debate. The use and order of the swaps shouldn't need to be debated imo. There's only 1 right answer.

[BuJaber]

Same as what we can say now. Except with an increased chance of 2 scum in group 2. Probably points to one of the PR claimers.

And who agreed to that solution of yours apart from you? There were still people opposed to that. I don't actually remember you saying it I thought you were advocating for a group 2 lynch without swaps the whole time. You and dramon did not seem flexible on that point and THAT I was strongly opposed to. You don't just lynch the group wothout swaps when there are 2 PRs in it, one of which is confirmable so at least we'd know that wisdom isn't lying about the claim which could come in handy for setup spec even if you donXt townread him for it. Not to mention we can strongarm his choices.

You and dramon wanted to lynch group 2 as it was without doing anything which was a decent choice back when we had WIFOM only but once we have PR claims in it you never do that.

I'm not saying you have to townread koki and wisdom but by advocating to lynch group 2 without swaps you are advocating for the exact move you would be doing if koki and wisdom were confirmed scum. It is a play that assumes they are scum. Any other assumption makes it a bad move. If you don't trust them you come up with a way to test them. You don't just punish them for claiming.

The whole basis for the 100% guaranteed scum thing is that koki is telling the truth or is scum. If he is scum he has to be the only scum in group 2 otherwise it's a dumb ass move and koki is way too smart for that. You can easily swap him with some other suspect and lynch and see if he was lying or not.

The compromise I remember you talking about is swapping yourself with fitz (I think.. maybe it was eddie) If you did suggest this one then it was buried in your pushes for no swaps at all and I'm sordy I missed it. I do know that dramon never suggested something like that though.

All of that still isn't about the point I made. I was saying if we took the time to agree to the swaps and swap orders then town would be in control of your PRs and we would be able to trust you both because lying would be suicide for either of you. Nobody was willing to come up to an agreement. Everyone was still arguing about whether to swap or not and whether wisdom is town and whatever. Stuff that didn't actually matter. Because all the claims so far in this game can be tested and managed. It's all out in the open and during the day.

You shouldn't have ignored everything I planned out just because you didn't like the players I was swapping.
Especially when I then followed through with a very flexible plan that basically gave freedom to any swap you choose as long as you go first and wisdom goes second and pine/riku are both lynched.

But even my completely flexible and reasonable plan was ignored. So whatever we're now basically relying on reads only. Since the whole swapping thing was done haphazardly.

[BuJaber]

Because all the claims so far in this game can be tested and managed. It's all out in the open and during the day.

How's that working for you so far?

Is that my fault?

I can't single handedly force wisdom and muffin to swap town's choices under threat of lynching them. I need support.

What should have happened is an unofficial vote for who muffin swaps and an unofficial vote for who wisdom swaps and we go with majority for both and if muffin/wisdom don't comply we treat them as confscum.

[BuJaber]

First of all I was never the one suggesting we lynch group 3. That was wisdom my idea was to swap people into group 2 to make it more scummy.

Second of all you don't account for the possibility of town koki town wisdom (and town Buj). Which is the strongest possibility in my mind followed by koki scum town wisdom.

Thirdly you're not factoring in the advantage of having confirmed towns. And not factoring in the negative EV of town deaths.

Now that you've explained it nicely yes I can see where I went wrong with the 100% guaranteed scum lynch. But that play is not the optimal play. It isn't even the least risky. It is simply the one that guarantees 1 scum dead.

The advantage of swapping out koki is that you either know for sure that he is scum OR you kill 1 scum AND confirms koki town.

The advantage of swapping out wisdom is that if someone else flips scum you have wisdom's ability to use again or even if he doesn't have a 2nd shot he might soak up the scum's kill if they think he has a 2nd shot.



For now please swap pine and let's lynch G3. G2 is tainted by wisdom's swap we can't lynch it based on koki's claim anymore.

[BuJaber]

Your strategy sacrifices long-term town gain for the short term small victory.

[BuJaber]

Okay muffin you're not convinced by my arguments and I'm not convinced by yours.

If you decide to switch don't do it without taking input.

Riku nobody can swap you back. Suggest realistic things please.

[BuJaber]

I was gonna talk to you about it post game further but you know what nobody cares after the game and I'm not interested in a long winded theoritical discussion in mafia where the principal is flawed anyway because no 2 games can ever be the same since players and roles and moods and mental states change.
Like I can't see how your idea is better for town than mine but you seem to know what's what so I have some general mafia questions inspired by our discussion.


I just need you to ignore what happened in the game. Ignore your alignment. Ignore my alignment. I need a genuine answer for my personal knowledge of mafia.

If we shouldn't make decisions based on the likelihood of things being true, in other words if all scenarios are equally likely, why do people not use randomness more?
Are the site rules the only thing preventing people from playing mafia optimally?
Or do people just not understand probabilities?
Like if randomness was allowed would town win rates increase?

I enjoy playing regardless of game outcome but I wouldn't want to play somewhere where my win ratio is inherently rigged

More specifically to partition mafia setup is there an actual difference between 4 town 0 scum dead and 4 town 1 scum dead if the first scenario gives us confirmed scum? Wouldn't they be equal in terms of town to scum ratio but scenario 1 would give towm something to act upon given that they know the alignment of one member of the day 2 groups?

[BuJaber]

Yes riku we would be happy if muffin swapped with pine and we lynched G3.

[BuJaber]

Big post is @muffin obviously.

[BuJaber]

You are from your perspective if you're town.

[BuJaber]

@riku his point was he is suspecting that you're scum because you want to be in the lynched group. If you don't swap and we lynch another group you know( as town) for a fact that worse case scenario would be all of them being town. If we swap you with a townie there is no difference for town. If we swap you with scum we lose an extra townie instead of scum. Since you know you are town you shouldn't be advocating to move to the lynched group because it can never net a positive gain for town, but there is a chance it nets a loss for town if you get swapped with scum.

Pedit - wisdom just said the same thing

[BuJaber]

I don't think we should lynch only one of pine/riku. It should be both together so the non believers can gain more info about koki/wisdom/me

[BuJaber]

Muffin you need to swap quickly because deadline before lynch occurs is auto scum win. If you're action resets the vote that means we may have another 20 page debate for 2 days.

I want you to swap with pine.

I have more to say but I can't write it out right now.

But it has become clear to me that nobody here has played partition mafia before.

Now I also have never played it before so I can't judge them for that. But I think because of this scum is letting these theory talks going. The amount of posting about relevant game actions or posts has dwindled and people are getting bogged down with mechanics and claims and theory.
Everytime it appears to be dying down and there's hope that we will move on it starts up again.

I believe the scum team is made up of 1 active poster and 2 lurkers or 2 lurkers and 1 active poster.

I believe there is no scenario that has muffin and dramon both scum. We are looking at 1 or 2. If they are both town then it is my opinion that this partition mafia experiment is called a flop and ended. Repeating it would just be cruel to the MS community.

And if wisdom is scum here then all my experience honing my mafia skills in the past 4 or so years I've played have been for nothing.


Muffin swap today. We can't afford to delay it further.
Also I think everyone is sick of D1 let's move it along.

[BuJaber]

Waot what ... where did I get the idea it was an auto win for scum? Actually getting a no lynch wagon? Who would do that lol.

[BuJaber]

Fine then guys let's vote G3 so muffin swaps and then the real vote begins.

VOTE: G3

[BuJaber]

I honestly think I wouldn't have joined if I knew there were PRs.
I thought this would be all about WIFOM logic of grouping.

[BuJaber]

Wisdom if my brain is not making up memories you claimes before koki yes?

[BuJaber]

@Wisdom - Oh okay sorry then. I thought I could prove your towniness to them but looks like they have to rely on their reading ability.

[BuJaber]

Wasn't RMOJ townread by everyone except me?

I seem to recall several people telling me he's town and not to read into the gimmick.

[BuJaber]

Wisdom if my brain is not making up memories you claimes before koki yes?

I thought Koki claimed first.

Yes wisdom answered me already. I was wrong.

[BuJaber]

Switch with Pine

Thank you

VOTE: Group 3

[BuJaber]

Oh wait switch not confirmed by mod my vote is useless it will be reset.

[BuJaber]

@mod - did you mean to keep deadline as is?

VOTE: Group 3

[BuJaber]

So muffin lied about the deadline extension

[BuJaber]

That'a a fun way of doing it.

Mod approval +1

[BuJaber]

Shit I didn't get to vote for myself

VOTE: 3

For glorrrryyyyyyy

Currently suspecting Muffin, maaaaaybe Wisdom.

REMEMBER: IF RIKU FLIPS TOWN, THERE IS 100% SCUM IN {WISDOM, BUJABER}

I mean technically koki could be the scum and he lied.

[BuJaber]

I actually am thinking muffin is town who is just very wrong about what's optimal for partition mafia. I think he'd be a beast at endgaming a massclaimed normal mafia game. Just not so great here.

I don't blame him so much for thinking he's right and everyone else is wrong just wish he could have maybe chilled it a little.

Also he did swap with pine so we can lynch pine/riku so like even if he's scum he's being nice there.

[BuJaber]

lets not forget the setup spec aspect

I, the swapper, am town
Cakez, the self-mover, is flipping town
I have a hard time seeing both the self-swapper and the mover being town, meaning there should be at least one scum in {muffin, Eddie}

I'm good with this assumption.

Which means eddie is looking real bad for me now.

Scum put him in with 4 towns I dare you.

[BuJaber]

vote: group 3

In case it wasn't done yet.

I'm hoping the scumteam is Wisdom, BuJ and Muffin, cuz that would at least explain the amount of bullshit reasoning that happened today.

You realize you and muffin were practically clones of each other for the past 40 pages right? Now you say his reasoning is bs? Where was the disagreement earlier?

[BuJaber]

I'm not scum and I still trust wisdom to be town here, so I'm guessing 1/1/1 split again. Or 1/2/0.

My vote is on group 2.

They used up their kill so we will never lose if we hit at least 1 scum every day because they can't put less than 1 in each group.

So basically if we lynch group 2 we're down 3. Assuming it's 1:2 we'll have 3 townies and 2 scum left.

They have two ways to win tomorrow which is they put 2 town together without scum or 1 scum with 1 town.

So 2/2/1 is their best bet. If they do 3/1/1 we lynch the scummiest solo group.
They can try to put 2town with 1 scum but then you have 2 groups with only 1 person in them you'd know who's scum.

Besides it's still between wisdom and koki. One of them at least is scum. The fact that they didn't put them together means we will have a confirmed scum tomorrow if koki isn't the scum.

Even if you guys don't believe that I'm town it'll still be between me and wisdom tomorrow so you'll be able to know how to avoid losing.

Basically the fact that you can't have a group with 0 is why this game is balanced and scum can't hurt town too much as long as we know there is guaranteed scum within 2 or 3 players. Which is why I had so many issues with dramon and muffin's logic. They were way too scared of lylo. This game lylo is less dangerous than normal mafia bekieve it or not because there is so much info to gain from the partitioning.


VOTE: Group 2

Koki it's actually a brilliant claim by you. At first I townread the hell out of it because I couldn't explain why you'd risk exposing yourself but you knew you were either killing 4 town or we will vote another group which means you remain a mystery.

[BuJaber]

Also as far as it sucks that we argued so much I think muffin is town if koki is scum. Why would koki claim so early if he knew that a switching PR exists which makes it likely that town had one if scum had one. So koki would have known about muffin's switch.

Muffin I don't tell people how to play the game but when you're town consider keeping the sarcasm limited. You came off as scum that is gloating knowing you are being suspected but can't be killed.

[BuJaber]

Well I know for sure there's scum in wisdom/koki.

The way wisdom is sure this is my towngame I'm pretty sure this is his towngame.

But beyond that I've really been townreading his play.

To you it comes down to which is more likely. That eddie/koki has scum or me/RMOJ/fitz has scum.

I will consider lynching group 1 as an alternative but if both are town we just lose. Then again nsg didn't get much heat day 1 so putting him in a 2 player group is an interesting choice. Wouldn't they want to make the 2 player group an attractive choice considering that if both are town we lose if lynched?

Or maybe they are too afraid of putting 2 scum in one group. So this is again the most even split they can choose with 8 players.

I don't know considering I was wrong about dramon.. makes me think at least one of RMOJ/muffin is scum. I've so far never had a game where literally ALL my scumreads flipped town so I assume I'm right about 1 of you.

Fitz seems townie to me for some reason.

You know nsg/koki/RMOJ would be pretty strong here.

I'll just order the players based on how scummy they feel to me right now

Scum [koki, RMOJ, nsg, Eddie, muffin, fitz, wisdom]

[BuJaber]

Scum [koki, RMOJ, nsg, Eddie, muffin, fitz, wisdom]

Town

[BuJaber]

Why I don't think wisdom was/is buddying me:

He was in my group

What does he gain from buddying me or whiteknighting me?

He started doing it way before any claims.

If I get mislynched alone and flip town maybe he gets credit for that. If he is in a different group maybe I'd be inclined to defend him also after seeing him buddy me. But he was in my group. The maximum he gains is sacrificing himself for me, and when you consider how many veterans are in this game I am definitely not worth the sacrifice of someone like wisdom.


Now why I'm town.. if my play isn't enough let's talk scum strategy.
Consider how many people were townreading me before koki's claim.

You're scum. You see town!buj getting townread, wis and bu forming a town bond. Pike/riku are town. They all vote for group 2 but nobody else is. You are struggling to build the wagon further. What do you do?
Koki claims scum is in group 2. Paradigm shifted. Thread explodes in posts. Wis/bu come under scrutiny. Pine/riku condemned to die.

They wanted 4 townies dead by sacrificing koki. That soundss like a better outcome for us on paper but I honestly think this is better. Sure lylo makes it scary but there are 3 scum here they are forced to partition. They have less 'safe' partitions than they do with 2 scum alive.
Also we all know there is definitely scum in koki/wis/bu.

[BuJaber]

Yup

Nsg/eddie/koki

[BuJaber]

Still good with group 2

[BuJaber]

Scum want koki dead.. they just want him to take out a lot of towns.

It actually might be koki/eddie/muffin. Makes a lot of sense to put them alltogether when you have a mover

[BuJaber]

Again it's partition mafia lylo not regular lylo and I know I'm town which means I have 3/7 chance of hitting any scum by not voting my group. And I was voting first so 4 people need to vote with me for lynch. My vote wasn't dangerous except to scum.

[BuJaber]

Fitz no.
I townread wisdom because even when I disagree with his thought process or reasoning I think it comes from town pov.

[BuJaber]

And putting all 3 scum in one group is actually very smart if eddie can move one of them.
If town suspect wisdom or me more than koki we lose lylo automatically by voting g1 or g3. If we suspect koki he can move muffin or koki out of g2.

[BuJaber]

I think he really is busy in RL or he wpuldn't have risked moving this early in day 2. But he's genuinenly worried about a quicklynch.

[BuJaber]

Exactly.

Why would town!eddie move koki to g3 instead of g1?
From town eddie pov both options put 2 suspects together .. wis/koki or koki/buj. But putting koki in g3 means he is betting everything on wisdom being scum. And also makes it very difgicult for town to actually lynch g3 so if town eddie suspect me or koki why would he make it harder for us to lynch his suspects.

[BuJaber]

VOTE: group 2

I don't buy this eddie is town stuff. Eddie's move was anti-town. Eddie's move doesn't make sense from town pov. Eddie has to be scum.

And it is definitely possible eddie/koki/muffin are scum together.

Scum tried to go all in with it and it didn't work.

I think muffin is trying to salvage it by making us doubt koki's scumminess.

He says the move was dumb but the point was this was an emergency solution for scum. It is their hail mary if their original plan didn't work. It is not dumb for scum to put all 3 of them in one group today because we are at lylo and 3 scum can hammer quite easily.

Why is this a hail mary attempt? Because if the team is eddie/koki/muffin we lose if we lynch G1 or G3.

You have to consider that scum are playing to win today not tomorrow or any other day. They don't care that they get exposed because to them it's all or nothing.

Even if my scumreads don't factor in this.. let's think about how the groups were at the start.

We all know there is scum in bu/koki/wisdom. Maybe 2.
So why did they put 1 of us in each group?

Why not put 2 in a 4 man group or even a 5 man group?
That would have made our decision very difficult and would guarantee that 1 scum lives. Because you would be forced to kill the group that contains the 3rd guy.

Splitting 1 of us in each group forces town to choose which one of us is most scummy so we gain nothing from the guaranteed guilty.. they force us to rely on reads.

I

[BuJaber]

I hope you reconsider. With the groups as they are I can't vpte G1 or G3.

Like unless nsg is scum g2 is the obvious choice.

And frankly the only argument I have against nsg is that she seems a little inactive. Which if I'm not mistaken is closer to her scum meta. But inactivity is a terrible reason to bet the game on.

[BuJaber]

do you townread both fitz and realmen

Not really but my suspicion of RMOJ is smaller than my trust in my partition analysis.

[BuJaber]

buj, salvage what? if we're scum, you literally just ignore me if you think koki is scum tomorrow after lynching me and eddie...

i think really if you want to argue that the team is me eddie kok you have to argue that the current situation is one we planned out, which seems stupid to me but maybe you disagree

to suggest we tried to go allin and then eddie panicked and threw a hail mary, as you put it, suggests a digusting lack of forethought. i like to think i would not be that stupid as scum

The hail mary isn't about tomorrow.

The hail mary is to give you guys another shot at town mislynching.

Like if town lynched g1 or g3 pre-switch you guys just win.

If g2 got votes eddie moves koki to g3.

Now we have to question everything again.

The move was a plan B that has the same goal as plan A. Town picks the group that kills them today.

I don't think you care about being exposed. The way this played out you are playing just to win it here. If not you accept the loss.

I do imagine that you could have planned this out this way. It isn't far-fetched and it isn't a bad plan either. It isn't a scum mistake. Like you understand that if eddie/you/koki are the team you guys did nothing wrong in day 2? This plan is really good and if I can't get my fellow townies to agree then you still win.

You seem to think I'm underestimating your scum game by considering this but this is actually me assuming you are skilled at scum.

If you were bad scum or scared scum I would not think you are capable of putting 3 scum together.

Putting 3 scum together and having eddie switch you out requires forethought and having great ability to wifom your way out of a lynch.

I've never played with you before but your posts from day 1 already prove you'd be more than capable of that.

I should have taken the fact that you were advocating for what you thought was the objectively optimal strategy as a sign you were scum. In most cases the person trying to convince people that the best winning strategy is x and their reasoning is compeltely objective that person is scum. Town use subjective reasoning a lot more becauae they're not faking it. Scum are tempted to use objective logic as that is more difficult to refute. Especially when they argue with just pure facts or they do the correct math.

[BuJaber]

We'll see about that

If you are the team you tell me at end game if you actually planned this out or not.

How is 4-2-2 better for scum... who would you put in the 2/2 groups? Because if koki is put in the 4 and me and wis are in another group nobody will think the 4man group is all town. They just can't lynch there meaning most likely koki gets confirmed as scum.

This way you could still argue that scum eddie moved town koki to make town suspect wis or me.

Take 48 hours.. the full night period and come up with all the partitions you think are better for eddie/muffin/koki than this one.
I don't think there are any but maybe you'll convince someone else. I am but one vote after all.

Eddie didn't get scared because of my vote. He freaked out because he may not be here and town could have hammered g2.

So if eddie is freaking out about a quickhammer before he returns then does it make more sense that he went with the option to put koki with 3 other people instead of with 2 others? If you are town and freaking out you hedge your bets you don't just use your PR carelessly like that.

If eddie wants to rage at something he should rage at how inadequate you guys think he could be at composimg himself under pressure.

[BuJaber]

@muffin obviously

[BuJaber]

Nsg there's nothing simple about it .. read the follow ups

[BuJaber]

I don't understand the votes on g3.. if you think eddie is town why would you assume 2 scum in g3? Town!eddie doesn't know the scum it would be by sheer luck. Also if 2 scum are in g3 (means koki is scum so wisdom isn't) then 1 scum isn't in g3 so you still have to consider who is scum between muffin/nsg. And if so why not make that choice now since it's the same risk. You either are right about 2 scum in g3 or we lose. Or you are right about which one of g1/g2 contain scum or we lose.

And if you think eddie is scum you should vote g2.

[BuJaber]

Yeah well it's hard for me to consider alternatives when there's only one team that makes sense to me.

And yes technically there could be 3 scum in group 3 but that would mean fitz and rmoj are both scum (both under suspicion by a lot of people in day 1) decided to put each other in the same group. So resoectfully no. It's not a false dichotomy.

[BuJaber]

do you think town eddie is completely incapable of having a correct scumread?

What would be his read here?

That he scumreads koki? Why not put him in g1 and vote g1.
That he scumreads me? Why not put koki in g1 and vote g3.
That he scumreads koki and RMOJ/fitz? Why did he justify it by blaming me for the vote. Especially when koki would have been killed by a pre-switch g2 lynch.

Only thing that might make sense is if he scumreads both me and koki and wants us both dead. But even then it's a dick move to force his reads on us without discussing the switch first.

[BuJaber]

bu why doesnt nsg/kokichi/rmoj make sense in your theory?

This team makes sense if eddie is town.

I'm just not going to play the game with the assumption that town!eddie made a move that is not just bad but doesn't make sense regardless of who he is scumreading.

I'm hung up on eddie scum. Help me with that and I'll consider lynching myself.

[BuJaber]

That he scumreads koki? Why not put him in g1 and vote g1.
That he scumreads me? Why not put koki in g1 and vote g3.
That he scumreads koki and RMOJ/fitz? Why did he justify it by blaming me for the vote. Especially when koki would have been killed by a pre-switch g2 lynch.

I don't understand how the things you suggest he should have done in any way translate to a better plan given the reads.

Why would he put kokichi in group 1 if he were scumreading kokichi?

What in the world

leads you to suggest that that would be a more sensical approach from town!eddie's perspective? I'm not being facetious here - i genuinely do not understand.

Put yourself in his shoes.

A group of 2 and a group of 3. All you know is you want to move a scumread to one of them. Why pick the bigger group that could contain more town? It's risky for no reason.

[BuJaber]

I have to go now.
Only issue that makes a difference to how this plays out is eddie.

If you want to give reasons for eddie being town I'll read them when I can.

UNVOTE:

[BuJaber]

How is 4-2-2 better for scum... who would you put in the 2/2 groups? Because if koki is put in the 4 and me and wis are in another group nobody will think the 4man group is all town. They just can't lynch there meaning most likely koki gets confirmed as scum.

just quickly because i'm supposed to be working atm, but i meant the current group of 4 plus any variation of 2s in other groups, but let's just say for the sake of example the current groups - you're arguing that scum win lynching group 1 or 3 with the original split, but your theoretical me+eddie+kokichi team makes this split also win with the same lynches, except without the need for the "panic plan b" thing that makes us look bad... anyway, not super important but i was just trying to explain why the theory that we decided to hail mary and failed doesn't make sense

i'll read the rest of what's going on when i get a break

Except nobody would lynch the 4 man group if the day started with it.

And if the votes started piling on eddie wouldn't he move you out, again?. Say he puts you in the 4 man grou (because 'town' eddie would still think there are 2 scum in group 3) wouldn't eddie look like obvious scum there? So why isn't he obvious scum when it's a 3 man group he made into a 4.

You're making my points for me but arguing against me. It's really strange. If town would lose unless they voted for group 3 pre switch and the switch doesn't change that at all that is a clever switch. Because the switch resets the votes and forces us to rethink. We are now having to rethink the vote. Wisdom seemed open to voting g2 but not anymore. It worked.

@nsg - okay let's say you're right. RMOJ and fitz put themselves together in one group. Why would they put only me with them? If you don't agree that they were under suspicion from day 1 you can't deny that I am under suspicion because I was in group 2 day 1. Why would they put only 1 town with them in the group when that town is in danger of getting lynched? Why not make it a 4 man team? It would be really reckless to do that if eddie is not scum with them because they wouldn't even have a mover and eddie can't be scum if fitz/RMOJ are both scum because there's a guilty in me/wis/koki.

[BuJaber]

that's not true, but i'm not interested in arguing about this anymore if you think this is a true statement. it's not a fruitful discussion

It's a relevant discussion to today's lynch.

Look 1 guilty in wis/koki/me.
If there's a 4 man group that includes me/koki.. is there anyone here that thinks we are scum together?
If we aren't scum together wouldn't be suspicious to put 2 of the guilty pool together in a 4 man group? Wouldn't that look like lynch bait to you? At first sight it would look like an attractive lynch. Confirm wisdom as guilty OR kill the guilty in koki/buj. But if both fitz/RMOJ are town you can't afford it.
If eddie is scum and doesn't move anybody from g3 you'd know he's happy with the lynch. And if he moves one of them he exposes himself for sure. In today's scenario that actually happened it's not 100% guaranteed that he's scum. Otherwise we wouldn't be having this conversation.
So no if the team is you/eddie/koki you wouldn't start the day with a 4 man group.

[BuJaber]

Look pre-switch I had RMOJ as more likely scum than nsg. But post switch I'm quite suspicious of nsg and starting to doubt wisdom because of how sure he is that nsg and eddie are town.

I am never lynching group 3 with the groups as they are. Either we lynch group 2 and win tomorrow by lynching koki. Or I convince myself group 1 has scum and lynch there.

[BuJaber]

I already provided reasons why eddie's move makes him scum.
So far nsg, you, and wisdom don't seem to agree with them.
I'll respect your wishes and stop the discussion.

Eddie is scum.
VOTE: g2

He wants to take it up with me post game I'll be here. But if he is town he ruined any chance I have of townreading him.
Given eddie is scum there are only 4 possible teams imo.
From most likely to least:
Eddie/koki/muffin
Eddie/koki/nsg
Eddie/koki/wisdom
Eddie/nsg/wisdom

Good luck hopefully the correct wagon is the one that's lynched whether I'm right or wrong.

[BuJaber]

Wisdom what happened to the idea that one PR has to be scum?

These PRs are already bs.

I think this game is balanced without PRs. Hinestly if all the PRs are town it's way too townsided.

[BuJaber]

They messed up the game and distracted us.

Game would have been all about the partitions and reads.

The PRs made it about something else

[BuJaber]

So we have 1 PR that flipped town.

We have wisdom/koki/eddie/muffin left.

I believe 1 scum among wisdom/koki and at least 1 scum among eddie/muffin.

If eddie is town muffin is scum or both wisdom/koki are scum or all 3 are scum.

Basically minimum 2 scum in wisdom/koki/eddie/muffin but 1 of them has to be wisdom/koki obviously.

[BuJaber]

Wisdom doesn't make sense as scum unless he has another PR partner. So if you townread eddie/koki/muffin you have to townread wisdom.

[BuJaber]

No wait that doesn't make sense..

[BuJaber]

Okay I don't think they needed the day 1 thatrics if muffin/wisdom are partners. They could have distanced each other without wasting time dealing with the switches.

If wisdom is scum he has to be scum with eddie or koki.
If eddie is town wisdom is scum with koki or koki is scum and wisdom is town.

[BuJaber]

What's a protector?
Koki claimed investigative

[BuJaber]

Missed that one. Did he claim it? What was it supposed to do?

[BuJaber]

Still no explanation for wisdom buddying me. I'm a crazy guy who can't explain myself well enough. It's the weakest part of my game. I'm right most of the time but rarely able to influence town.
Buddying me nets him nothing more than my reluctance to vote for him.
And since he is obviously distancing his partners if he is scum he still needs more than just my vote.


Pedit - scum self protector is insanely OP. And town should have claimed it by now.

Don't worry about me my assumptions don't travel to other games. I am forced to make loose assumptions because of this particular setup. It works here. Also because I think my assumptions are believable. If they are wrong the game state was created by unrealisticly coincidental things happening.

[BuJaber]

Not just that but from my pov in day 1 the confirmed scum (koki or wisdom) was in my group and the push was against another group.
Now the push is against my group which makes it more likely that scum are happy with it if not leading it.


Pedit - your advice is amusing to me considering I think you're scum. I don't take offence. I'm egotistical that way that I don't think a player with more experience means he'll be better or more right than I am.

[BuJaber]

Theoritically better *.

Experience definitely makes someone a better player mechanically.. (less obvious as scum, more influential as both alignments, more comfortable in all situations)

[BuJaber]

In other words strategically, and gut-wise, and in scumhunting a newbie can be better than an experienced player. But being right in those things doesn't always mean you win games.

Experienced players are more successful at winning games even if they are wrong more.

[BuJaber]

First let me just explain real quick I didn't mean anything about you personally with the comments.
It's just that we're still in the game and I've read your arguments and think you're wrong and I'm right. Even when it comes to my approach. I understand the dangers of assumptions but I think some of the things you said aren't applicable here.
After the game I'd be more inclined to trust your views over mine because you are more experienced and after the game I'd know for sure they were genuine. If I disagree I will disagree but I won't debate it. The beauty of mafia comes from the fact that there different ways to approach the game and nobody can for sure say which is best. It depends on the player's style and strengths.

My scumread on you is based on some day 1 stuff and the eddie thing and frankly that you are playing devil's advocate for every point I make. At some point I have to start making decisions based on certain reads and assumptions. If I am wrong about the assumptions it doesn't mean I am wrong about how I act upon them. Same thing with a math problem. If you get some calculation wrong at the beginning your answer will be off at the end but you might have used the correct method/logic.

Some of the day 1 stuff: the aggressive push for a g2 lynch without any swapping. The overly sarcastic comments when people scumread you or a particular post of yours. Your rare use of subjective arguments and opinion and reliance on probability and objectively optimal moves etc. Like I explain earlier, it isn't that these kind of arguments are scummy by themselves, but when someone's ISO is dominated by them it looks sketchy. Why are they not taking a chance with some of their reads? It seemed to me like if you were more trusting of your reads you'd make different arguments but you were content with things that are mechanical and numerical rather than making reasonable conclusions based on your reads.

Day 2 the eddie stuff is a big part of it.


Fitz I've townread since he started posting more. He started the game a little inactive but then he posted a little more and the posts seem innocent enough and town motivated. Not the most proactive and helpful player around but didn't read anything that seemed anti-town.

I don't like RMOJ's posts. I suspect I'm just not comfortable townreading this particular style of playing. I did suspect throughout day 1 that the real man and honor stuff was all a strategy to avoid talking about anything real and to look like a playful innocent townie.

But then eddie used his move. And now I can't townread it. And if I conclude that eddie is scum it doesn't make a lot of sense for me to vote for g3 regardless of what I think of RMOJ. It also means eddie put rmoj in group 3 with me and fitz and I have to account for that.
Can RMOJ and eddie be scum together? Yes in theory but then if he moved koki to group 3, it makes it more likely that wisdom is scum and that goes against my most confident townread.

Problem is with his behavior after eddie switched I am now doubting even that read. So I'm just really confused now. If I am wrong it means that scum is not following any strategy at all but instead just sort of splitting themselves up in an even and somewhat safe arrangement and just hoping they don't lose.

Like if all the top posters are town then scum are doing no pushing at all. They are relying on blind luck and town implosion. And in a regular game that could work but in partition mafia scum have a lot power because they define who dies with whom. It doesn't make sense to me for them to be passive in this game.

There's also the confirmed guilty in koki/wisdom.
See whichever one of them is the scum they intentionally out each of us 3 in a separate group. Wis/koki/me. From wisdom's pov group 3 should now be a wet dream if he is scum. If eddie and you are town he doesn't care that I want to lynch g2. Why would he need to change his perspective on eddie? And why isn't he pushing for group 3 with more conviction?


Finally, and I admit this one is the weakest argument, but koki's towngame tends to have more roleplay, more jokes about being scum, much more public confidence in reads, and generally posts more than what I've seen so far in this game.

For the record I'm not sure about nsg. Having difficulty settling on a read as I've flip flopped but other people seem scummier so I've more or less treated her as a townread by default or at least as a "will sort later".

[BuJaber]

You know nsg/koki/RMOJ would be pretty strong here.

I have no problem with this team if eddie is town as you can see this was one of my predictions at the beginning of the day.

But it requires me to townread eddie.
Maybe his future posts could change my mind but for now I don't see it.
So if you're right hopefully town follows you. And if I'm right hopefully they follow me.

Either way your team allows you to vote for g1 so we don't have to lynch g3 yet.

[BuJaber]

It comes down to this really.. if we lynch g2 and eddie flips scum we'll win. Only a handful of potential teammates for him.

If we lynch g1 and nsg flips scum and you flip town koki is conf scum. So we can easily win after that too.

If we lynch wrong we lose.

Please never move your vote from g1 to g3 though. If you are still voting for g1 and it reaches L-1 maybe even L-2 you would confirm yourself as town.

[BuJaber]

if we lynch g2 and eddie flips scum we'll win. Only a handful of potential teammates for him.

And thats why scum eddie doesnt do it
If they wanted kokichi to be hard to lynch, theyd make the groupings so without using his move

I know you might be right, I do.
But the point is if eddie is scum he would need to use his power to make you townread him.
Also if they made it so at the start of the day it would be obvious that koki is scum.
Like if koki is town they would want him dead.
If he is scum they wouldn't want to be easy to lynch him. Because exposing him clears me and you.

So if he's town they wouldn't put him in a big group.
So if they put him in a big group it makes him look bad.

[BuJaber]

Lynch me then you won anyway you don't have to rub it in.

[BuJaber]

I'm not even mad.. it was a brilliant strategy and nice move by eddie.

[BuJaber]

I don't participate in a lynch unless I believe in it.
Sorry if it seems I'm being unreasonable but only person who has a chance at changing my mind is eddie himself. I'm giving around 5% chance of him being town.

[BuJaber]

48 hours into day 2 and it's been mainly a 3 way conversation..let's let others pitch in.

[BuJaber]

I'll concede that there are certain elements of your playstyle that don't sync up with mine and that has influenced my read whether I intended to or not.

That said just because I was wrong about dramon it's not healthy to automatically assume I'm wrong about you but I agree it does provide an example of town having a wildly different perspective from mine.

If I go by early D1 scumreading accuracy I like to think it's very rare for me to get them all wrong so it is possible you are town and RMOJ is scum.

That said I of course find it more plausible that if there is town in g2 right now it'd be you not eddie.

And either way if I do feel more confident in you as a townread it could help me take the risk of lynching outside g2 even if I continue scumreading eddie.

Did eddie ever claim who he thought was likely scum between mme/wis/koki?

Also it's my turn to be surprised that you think eddie's move is as bad as you think it is if he is scum with koki. And from my perspective I had you as his partner. Which makes the move even better because it makes us question whether or not that is the right team. Basically the way I had it town loses unless they lynch g2. Eddie moves koki and STILL town loses unless they lynch g2. It is something no town would expect. A scum PR used his power and it made no difference to the lynch consequences. That is what makes it brilliant. Not to mention the ballsiness of putting all 3 of you in the same group. And you 3 are definitely ballsy enough to do it.

Anyway with more posts from eddie/rmoj/fitz and nsg we should all be able to get better reads.

[BuJaber]

The pressure on eddie came from being VLA until 25th.

From scum!eddie perspective he knows he won't be able to react fast enough if town do jump on the wagon. So when he sees a townie voting for the group that wins the game for town he is forced to use his power at a suboptimal time.

Have you not noticed that wisdom isn't really doing much to influence the vote? He only needs to cast doubt on my alignment and/or support the narrative that I'm wrong and then town doesn't lynch eddie.

Because eddie flipping scum confirms koki scum. But koki flipping scum doesn't confirm that eddie is scum. Because there's a slim chance that eddie is scum with koki and RMOJ/fitz. In which case they want to make sure eddie survives until end game. Which you know... he probably can if 2 scum flip in g3.

As for his read on wisdom yeah that's what I thought... it wasn't clear. But if that is true and he scumread wisdom then moving koki to g3 is suicidal not just anti-town. It means he put a townread in a group he thinks contains only 1 scum (fitz or RMOJ).

[BuJaber]

Well that's assuming he and his team knew he would be VLA.
It's his life I'm not interested in the reason why but if it was urgent his team may not have known and not planned for it at all.

It's whatever. I finally feel that you are understanding my perspective so disagreeing with me now is not because of any shortcoming from me.

[BuJaber]

unless i missed a post, its cute in the whole time i was gone nobody realized kokichi is literally confirmed scum

We know thanks.. if you had put him in group 1 it'd be hammered already.

[BuJaber]

TFW when you insult the living townies to convince them you're town.

Guys if eddie talked day 1 we would have lynched all 3 scum. Eddie is super awesome at reading he would not have been fooled by toxic anti-town logic-out-the-window dramonic and the fact that koki claimed a guilty. OH NO not eddie eddie would mot be fooled by such nonsense.

Catch up mate I'm waiting.
But if that's the way you convince me what you did was pro-town then you're off to a fabulous start!

[BuJaber]

Eddie
Discussions happened about what should be done before any swaps. Long discussions. Then wisdom jumped the gun a little bit. But regardless he ended the pre switch discussion. So now there was a long debate trying to convince muffin not to undo wisdom's PR and waste both of their PRs. Which he eventually agreed to do. Now the choice was obvious. Lynch the new group that the PRs created or lynch a 5 man group of (at the time) mostly townreads.

[BuJaber]

Just explaining why it was a 'quicklynch' after the switches.

[BuJaber]

Eddie
Discussions happened about what should be done before any swaps. Long discussions. Then wisdom jumped the gun a little bit. But regardless he ended the pre switch discussion. So now there was a long debate trying to convince muffin not to undo wisdom's PR and waste both of their PRs. Which he eventually agreed to do. Now the choice was obvious. Lynch the new group that the PRs created or lynch a 5 man group of (at the time) mostly townreads.

but where was I during all of this?

You tell me

Man if only dramon and you are not irrationally afraid of lylo.

It's partition mafia. Partitions. It's very difficult for scum to force an early town loss without exposing themselves.
You really should have put koki in group 1. Gets rid of confscum so we know we can't lose and sorts nsg who's an enigma this game.

[BuJaber]

Even if I ignore my scumread on you eddie it is very difficult to lynch the 4 man group.

RMOJ care to tell us who your main is? We need all the help we can get now. Maybe there's some meta read we can rely on.

[BuJaber]

It's 2 scum or lose.

A 1 scum or lose decision is easier, because odds of any 3 man group to have 1 scum is much better than 2 being in 4.
Especially when 3 of those scum chose to put together and the last well they had to at least think about what would happen if you would move someone out of your group.

You have to be scum here man

[BuJaber]

Dude eddie flipping scum confirms koki scum because he moved koki into the bigger group.
If koki is town he would have no problem moving him to g1. G1 +koki would be hammered faster than you could blink. If wisdom is willing to lynch g1 now just imagine how willing he would be to lynch g1. (That is assuming you don't think wis and koki are a team which I don't). Though I suppose if wis/eddie/nsg are the team then eddie wouldn't move town koki to g1.

Okay so if eddie flips scum there is technically a chance that koki is town but since wisdom/nsg being scum together is crazy ... eddie flipping scum confirms koki scum.

[BuJaber]

Does anyone think g3 has 3 scum in it? Didn't think so.

Everybody please order the 4 people in g1 and g2 in terms of how likely you think they flip scum.

1. Eddie
2. NSG
3. Muffin





4. Wisdom

[BuJaber]

Eddie I don't think fitz is scum. So that leaves RMOJ. Which yes I've suspected all along but it really has to be rmoj and koki together for me to lynch g3.

Let's find the scum in g1 or g2 first today and then reanalyze the partitions tomorrow

[BuJaber]

Don't know what nsg is talking about. If going by meta alone koki is scum. Add everything else and he's obvscum.

Some of you may be inclined to believe the conspiracy theory of koki + wisdom. It is an exciting notion for sure. But I have many reasons for townreading wisdom. He's been playing pro-town and he doesn't strike me as someone who'd go through all this effort just for the long con of winning town cred. Especially when he's shown what is (at least on the surface) a continuous wiklingness to lynch himself. I've played against scum wisdom once and he was very different. Also I think if he was scum with koki he would have put him with me in a group from the get go without using eddie's move.

Wisdom I don't want to lynch you on the off chance that nsg isn't just town and derping hard here. Vote with me?

I'll be honest here the sting of losing because we lynched town nsg would be less painful than the sting of losing because we lynched town eddie/muffin. Nsg isn't the one that put confscum in a group that already had 3 people.

[BuJaber]

Actually put it this way if eddie is town I'll happily lynch g3. I'm fine with taking a leap of faith on muffin and I think it's almost impossible that there is more than 1 scum in g1. So eddie town = g3 lynch.

[BuJaber]

Keep at it man you'll win the award of best argument used to turn a scumread into a townread. I'm almost there.

[BuJaber]

Except in your shoes I would put koki in g1 every time.

And the difference in our reads is a fundamental one. I am scumreading you.

[BuJaber]

What do you think you did this game that earned you a position of authority? Have you been playing the same game?

You've given us no reason to trust you at all and it's our bad luck that you rolled a PR.

You haven't earned the right to be condescending.
Your g1 effort is subpar. You used your power without consultation. And you used it in a way which leaves no margin of error for your reads.

[BuJaber]

@eddie - because it gives us a guaranteed scum with a maximum of 2 townies dead so we don't lose. If g3 contains 3 town we lose.
If you were suspecting me then I could maybe understand but your justification for moving koki was that you thought he is scum. All we need to do is lynch scum every day to win. It doesn't matter how fast we lynch them. So while yes 2 scum lynched would be great, it isn't worth the risk. Putting koki in g1 guarantees we don't lose.
If you notice my position in day 1 was not to go for the safest lynch. But that's because day 1 wasn't lylo. Here we are already many many pages in, and scum have used their kill, and we have some more info so we don't need to take unnecessary risk. We just need to avoid losing.

@nsg - It's not really that I'm scumreading you per se I just don't understand your reads. The 'derping' point was me telling wisdom that I'm not cofident enough that you are scum to vote for g1. If I was confident in my scumread I'd vote g1 without hesitation.
As for koki's meta. From what I've seen in his towngames he portrays a lot more confidence. He has the ability to emerge as a town leader. He does a lot of roleplaying with the anime character. He makes a few soft - scumclaim jokes. You also can't call town!koki a lurker.
This game is missing all of these elements.

@koki because there were other arguments to be made and because you claimed a guilty. I believed your claim. I thought it was a rediculous claim to make as scum. I have since changed my mind about that plus the only people left that can be guilty per your claim are me and my top townread. So now my meta read on you is more relevant because your claim is voided imo. And I will always give people who know you more than I do more credit when discussing meta. But when nsg makes a meta argument at a critical time that I comepletely disagree with, I have to speak out.

[BuJaber]

I still think Eddie/muffin/koki is more likely than nsg/koki/RMOJ

From my pov the options are (assuming wis town):
Eddie/muffin/koki
Eddie/nsg/koki
Koki/nsg/rmoj
Muffin/nsg/koki

math says nsg is more likely scum than eddie
Fitz will never vote with me. G2 won't vote g2. I tried to change your mimd but couldn't. I literally can't get enough votes.

Not how I imagined it but VOTE: group 1

[BuJaber]

Rmoj and koki are both in my group

[BuJaber]

I don't understand what you're referring to

[BuJaber]

If you mean before the switch then I do account for one optiom of RMOJ being scum in g3 pre-switch.

But yes I believe 1/1/1 split is a losing tactic for scum when eddie is a mover and we have a guilty. If he is scum his move means they can do any partition they want and then manipulate in the best way based on votes/and town's reads. If eddie is town they would have to assume he will put 2 of me/koki/wis together.

[BuJaber]

My post continued: Meaning that pre switch we had some combination of 1/2/0 split or 0/3/0 split.

The combination of putting 1 scum in each group AND 1 of each of the guilty pool in each group is implausible to me and eddie being a mover. It is a very bad strategy imo and I don't think any of the living players are bad enough to think it's the way to go.

-pedit fine VOTE: unvote

Consider my vote on g1 for the time being.

[BuJaber]

bu id rather you kept your vote on so we can start crossing off scumteams when they dont hammer

I didn't unvote because nsg asked. That prompted me to do it but I need to do it anyway because I'm probably going to be away for the next 10 hours

I would keep it otherwise for the wagon analysis. Actually just promise me you will unvote if it feels suspicious and nsg starts looking town because of how people join the wagon.

VOTE: group 1

[BuJaber]

do you think that both fitz and RMOJ are town?

It's possible.

Just to clarify when I say any combination of split that means 0 scum in g3 or 1 scum in g3 or 2 scum in g3 pre switch.

So there is a possibility of fitz/RMOJ/koki that I forgot earlier. But I find this one rather unlikely considering my fitz townread.

[BuJaber]

i dunno man. even if they thought he was a pr they wouldn't kill him if they thought he had shit reads. the only two people I even remember acknowledging him are me (town) and you (meh town)

Do you actually believe this? (In general not just in this game)
So many reasons to kill people that have nothing to do with how good their reads are. How many newbies get killed in night 1 when the game is full of veterans? It's a common kill because nobody knows them.

do you think that both fitz and RMOJ are town?

It's possible.

Just to clarify when I say any combination of split that means 0 scum in g3 or 1 scum in g3 or 2 scum in g3 pre switch.

So there is a possibility of fitz/RMOJ/koki that I forgot earlier. But I find this one rather unlikely considering my fitz townread.

fitz townreads me lol

So I should always townread my townread's townreads?



Pedit - yeah there's no hammertesting because either g1 has scum or we lose.... it's more about seeing how people justify joining the wagon and how quickly it builds up. Those things matter

[BuJaber]

I'll be honest I'd be happier if I was right about eddie/muffin/koki more than I would be if we won.
Is that a weird feeling?

Pedit - interesting development.. when did eddie/muffin get eliminated????!!!

[BuJaber]

You scumread fitz
And I should consider townreading you because I townread fitz who townreads you?

If fitz is scum his townread on you is fake so I should care at all about his reads.

[BuJaber]

Shouldnt

[BuJaber]

So are we.. maybe they don't want to risk us unvoting

[BuJaber]

UNVOTE:

I intend to hammer g1.

See you in several hours.

[BuJaber]

UNVOTE:

[BuJaber]

If we lynch 1 scum 1 town

We're down to 4 town 2 scum so we can afford to lynch 1 townie tomorrow right?

[BuJaber]

5/3
Tomorrow 4/2
- 1 town makes it 3/2.. so we can afford it.

Okay I was worried about koki being put in a group with 3 townies and us having to make a 50-50 decision on which solo group to lynch.

Good effort nsg. Too many things stacked against you. Though you are also lucky the lynch didn't happen faster by eddie putting koki with you. Whether that's because he's scum or not we'll find out eventually.

VOTE: Group 1

[BuJaber]

NSG - You didn't show support for group 2 earlier. I counted the votes I didn't have enough to lynch.
(Fitz no wisdom no, eddie no, muffin no that's already 4 people who wouldn't vote for g2 plus if they are scum koki wouldn't vote for them either)

So I had no choice. Also I still scumread eddie and can't fully trust muffin.

[BuJaber]

And as long as eddie is a scumread I will never vote for g3.

My decision is obvious donct put this on me nsg.

[BuJaber]

Eddie if I promise to call you a mafia God and leave mafiascum forever will you stop saying I'm bad and my posts are bad and my thoughts are bad and my votes are bad?

I have a good life I don't need mafiascum.

[BuJaber]

Eddie if I promise to call you a mafia God and leave mafiascum forever will you stop saying I'm bad and my posts are bad and my thoughts are bad and my votes are bad?

I have a good life I don't need mafiascum.

lol

I say people are shit as part of my essence

dont take anything I say personal please

You called a statement of facts "bad".

How can facts be good or bad? Facts are facts you can't disagree with them. 2168 was not my opinion. I was literally describing things that happened.

[BuJaber]

I'm not entirely convinced muffin and eddie could have hammered.. muffin disappeared around the same time. It is possible he missed any chance of coordinating with eddie.

But regardless the real issue is you. And I'm not going to suddenly start townreading you just because you have a particular meta you are trying to preserve or make me believe. And I think your flip flopping on reads isn't natural. You only recently began claiming you are leaning town for me. Which would mean earlier in the day when you expressed interest in lynching g3 you either thought fitz/rmoj are together or me/koki are together.

The fact that you've changed your reads only to land you to the same conclusion to lynch g3 seems rather suspicious also.

Pedit - nsg was never a townread. She's been the hardest person to sort for me.

[BuJaber]

@nsg *

[BuJaber]

Okay then it's nsg/eddie/koki


@nsg you said you were wanting to lynch 3 for most of the day yes? Way before anything else.
From town!nsg perspective you wanting to lynch g3 means you think 2+scum in there. And you had me as a scumread. You weren't pushing for it nearly as much as you were pushing it for it now.

From what I can see the only relevant thing that changed for you is that I started voting for g1 and you are now townreading me.

Your sudden commitment to the g3 lynch comes at an opportunistic time for you. Plus the teams that you must have been thinking of before are either invalidated by your townread of me or you've changed your reads on fitz/rmoj without any posts from them.

I feel like I'm not explaining myself clearly but basically the change in justification for lynching g3 earlier in day 2 compared to now does not fit.

Pedit - eddie: I was saying all of that to nsg

[BuJaber]

@nsg - I did read it. If I townread you then g3 is the obvious lynch. However I haven't seen justification to townread you. As I'm trying to explain, your actions seem scummy to me.

Pedit - maybe so but you'd be saying this too as scum. So like the way the game state is currently makes it so that you want to lynch g3 regardless of alignment from your pov. Because you can't push for eddie/muffin or wisdom as scum anymore. So as either alignment you only have g3 as an option that you'd publicly claim.

So it is up to me to decide whether you're doing it as town or scum. To do so I have to factor in what you've done (for example the change in reads, surge in posts, justification for reads, interactions with others)


All the above directed at nsg

[BuJaber]

Wisdom she's good... I actually am more convinced that she's scum after I started voting g1 than before but I feel bad about lynching her.

[BuJaber]

See:
G2 lynch wins the game
Koki being swapped into g1 wins the game.
The pre switch partition was a combination of 1/2/0.

There was unnecessary amount of risking trying to get 2 scum when all we needed is 1 scum.


Sorry nsg I fell asleep while posting a big post about why I couldn't believe you at the time. Here if you want

Spoiler: click

Sigh

Nsg can we please distinguish when we are talking about meta and when we are talking about something else? Because too much is being misunderstood by both of us.

"You would say this as scum too" refers to your justification for wanting g3 lynched. Meaning as scum you would also be forced to say "well if eddie and muffin cannot be scum together and wisdom is town and I am town that must mean g3 has 2 scum in it"

So anything you are saying at this point in the game about the lynch is NAI. I can neither townread nor scumread you for it. I must look at other things.


As for your meta:
Yes you didn't post as scum when we were partnered. That game was much smaller and faster than this. Relative to the number of pages and days taken at this game you have not posted very much

until recently

.
The increased effort and self-preservation instincts are yet again NAI. Yes I fully believe you will lose if we don't lynch g3 and I believe you believe it. But you will lose if we lynch you regardless of your alignment. So this statement isn't a lie or fake even whether you're scum or town.
I don't look up games I wasn't a part of for meta research. I think people miss out on the important relative subcontext of the posts if they don't actually experience the game live.

[BuJaber]

Oh and muffin being scum


Anyway only point that I feel important to say. The partitions should have changed how people view lynches and lylo. I couldn't understand why people thought mislynching was as bad as they did when info is everything. Also that as long as you kill 1 scum per day the scum are forced to partition in ways that will always give us safe options to lynch because they can't make a group with 0.

I still think the game is fine if all are vanilla roles.

[BuJaber]

Koki nsg was lurky in d1 and got your meta wrong and dramon was parroting muffin neither did a great job.
We all share the blame:

Town played badly.. it's a new setup people don't know how to play it yet

[BuJaber]

And fitz did a good job of soundimg townie and RMOJ didn't even play day 2

[BuJaber]

Yeah
Well if yiu believed what you were saying then I fundamentally disagree with your strategy and eddie's strategy.
He didn't have a shred of regret for his moving koki to g3. For me I would have put him in g1 everytime.

[BuJaber]

Still think with some tinkering you could use long objective arguments as to what is the theoritically best move for town as a scum clue.

I've noticed I and other people as scum having those kind of arguments dominating their ISO.

Pedit - Nsg The point would be to avoid a loss if you are wrong. Since there was at least 1 guilty in wis/koki/me lynching the guilty one with up to 2 townies means we can move forward. He also knows that as town the remaining 2 players can never have 2 scum.
It means that all you need to do is find town consensus on 1 scummy player and lynching them means we don't lose.

Here we needed everyone to agree that there are 2 town in g3.

[BuJaber]

Implosion can explain the balance aspect better and why I was never afraid of lylo.

He said the stuff I was thinking in the dead thread. I just suck at explaining.

[BuJaber]

How so muffin?

The PRs are literally what nessed up town's ability to correctly analyze behavior.

Everyone had wildly different ideas on how to play each PR in a pro-town way.

Without PRs the game would be 50% shorter in terms of page count and people would be talking about actual reads and partition WIFOM only.

The PR discussion really threw a wrench into any chance of town getting good clarity.

You say I'm wrong but wasting a PR as strong as wisdom's would ve a bad idea. The fact that it existed means mod put it there to balance the game. Not using it at all means we handicap ourselves. I wanted to lynch g2 after wisdom swaps out a wildly townread player from g2 (whoever the majority agrees to) it gives more info because it has a chance to guilty the person we swapped out and also increases the odds of lynching scum because it relies on the wisdom of crowds.

Lynching the 5 man group that mafia have intentionally chosen to put together seems incredibly bad guilty or no guilty.

[BuJaber]

In hindsight should have scumread fitz for his scumread on wisdom.

We'll see muffin. I really hope this setup gets played more. Especially mountainous (that means vanilla only? New term for me..why 'mountains'?) So we can have actual stats to analyze. Also because it'a the most fun non-standard setup I've ever played.

[BuJaber]

Implosion - why not have fewer PRs and make them town only?

I really struggled with finding a reason why scum would be given a role that can manipulate groups. Isn't the partitioning enough power for scum? Givem them the power to change them during the day seemed OP to me that's wjlhy my first instinct D1 was to townread all switching/moving other people claims. Only when the number of claims became suspicioisly high did I start thinking they have to include scum. Also because nobody agreed with this point anyway so I assumed I'm wrong. But I've been waiting for the game to end to ask this.

I feel like scum shouldn't be given a role that can move people.
I can understand some sort of protection and the self-moving (note not swapping) but not things that can in effect be a sort of mini partition during the day.

[BuJaber]

I had fun playing with everyone here and I actually really enjoyed the setup idea! Would play again.

I was really bummed not getting to use my role, but I thought it would be far more useful later in the game than earlier and I was hoping I wouldn't get killed. Ah well.

I think that there were lots of unfortunate circumstances here and no one should feel bad about how the game went!

As mentioned by implosion yes had you survived your role would have been much more useful day 2 or day 3 than day 1.

[BuJaber]

Basically eddie expected me to lynch a 4 man group that included me but was not willing to lynch a 3 man group that included him. Both of us scumread koki so koki being in our groups doesn't change that fact. I needed to have another scum in my group to justify the lynch. He didn't koki should have been enough for him. Or he puts him in g1 and doesn't have to lynch himself to lynch the guilty.

But thanks for training me to maintain my cool while basically losing my shit in real life. That's always good for future games.

I'm sorry if any of you felt I crossed a line. That is never my intention. I don't judge people by what is said during a game and I expect people not to judge me either.