Open 723: Purgatory! (Hell Phase 3)

[RC most awesomest]

confirming!

[RC most awesomest]

holy crap this is an awful rvs

[RC most awesomest]

its like you guys don't even know how to fucking rvs

[RC most awesomest]

I will show you guys how to RVS properly

[RC most awesomest]

ahem

[RC most awesomest]

I don't feel like showing anyone how to RVS properly

[RC most awesomest]

VOTE: NSG

just lynch her if she was town I would know it by now

[RC most awesomest]

GROOVY BABY

[RC most awesomest]

ok i'm gonna do

impressions

that one is AP obviously

let's see if anyone can mix and match all of them

NSG is included in the list of impressions btw

[RC most awesomest]

Okay guys you got me, I can't handle the pressure anymore, I'm the Serial Killer, you can leash me if you spare my life

I am participating in this game

[RC most awesomest]

actually I don't really know anyone else and I don't feel like doing the research just to do impressions

btw I am participating in this game was in fact an impression so that's 2 impressinos you can match

[RC most awesomest]

anyway

[RC most awesomest]

wtf i already did you didn't even get my impression of you

[RC most awesomest]

besides all I'd have to doi f I wanted to do an accurate impression of you is just not post

[RC most awesomest]

WHY MAKE TRILLIONS WHEN YOU CAN MAKE... BILLIONS?

[RC most awesomest]

it was the best line of your professional mafia career

[RC most awesomest]

ALRIGHT ZIP IT

[RC most awesomest]

EVERYTHING I'VE DONE I'VE DONE FOR YOU

I MOVE THE STARS FOR NO ONE

[RC most awesomest]

guess I have to solo play this game or something this town is worthless everyone's just fucking lurking

[RC most awesomest]

PM Username First Post Last Post Elapsed Time Posts V/LA Ends
RC most awesomest May 12, 09:31pm May 12, 11:03pm 0 days 0 hours 19
AP May 12, 06:56pm May 12, 11:00pm 0 days 0 hours 4
Not_Mafia May 12, 06:39pm May 12, 10:55pm 0 days 0 hours 5 May 22 2018
Oxy May 12, 07:39pm May 12, 09:20pm 0 days 1 hour 2
Invisibility May 12, 07:10pm May 12, 07:10pm 0 days 3 hours 1
Maruchan May 12, 06:22pm May 12, 07:00pm 0 days 4 hours 3
UglyDuck May 12, 06:45pm May 12, 06:59pm 0 days 4 hours 2


this is a problem guys

like even my hydra partner is lurking

[RC most awesomest]

VOTE: Oxy

[RC most awesomest]

There is no nsg there is only zod

[RC most awesomest]

I need meta but confidence that nsg wouldn't scumread him is town most of the time

Nm is +Rand town

[RC most awesomest]

Ehh i think I read too much into oxy
Stand by nm town

[RC most awesomest]

Im more fine with voting you for a bad reason than unvoting you for a bad reason. I was referring to the townread though

[RC most awesomest]

Why would I feel compelled to explain not unvoting you?

Rather than call my reasons for townreads bad, you should try to learn from them if you're town.

[RC most awesomest]

And ftr: if I felt more sure that you didn't say it wasn't NSG because the posting obviously wasn't her as opposed to because the vote was on you, I would townread you for that.

[RC most awesomest]

I think that the act of presuming that you ought to be townread by someone who has a history with you would have been something to townread you over, regardless of my understanding of the context.

Would you prefer that I scumread you instead?

[RC most awesomest]

Also I know what I'm doing: f you don't understand why I do stuff then you should stop and think through why I do them or ask me about them as opposed to calling things that you don't understand bad.

[RC most awesomest]

Okay Oxy is scum

[RC most awesomest]

Also I know what I'm doing

please stop gross appeal to authority.

This approach to my slot doesn't make much sense at all, simply saying that I know what I'm doing when I immediately deduced what Oxy needed 5 posts to get to is pretty reasonable.
It also doesn't respond particularly well to anything that I've done this game, at no point have I appeal to authoritied on any sort of reasoning besides something Oxy didn't even contest besides to say that I didn't know that 'for sure', which I even conceded. Accusing me of appeal to authoritying doesn't come from someone who doesn't generally know who I am.

Oxy shouldn't have me on their radar: I've been gone for 3 months then was only back for like a few months before then. Someone told them about me in scum PT.

Also in general I don't think it's ever the town approach to react to my townread on him (which I immediately 180ed ftr) by calling it bad and arguing that I couldn't have known it was a town thought process. Calling it scummy and being suspicious of it maybe, but what town calls townreads on them bad?

Yeah, you're clearly great at this game ;P

lolol

RC in this thread:

Again: how does this make sense as a town response to anything that I've done this game?

[RC most awesomest]

I established and confirmed that this was a newbie slot ftr, this isn't an alt. That level of familiarity didn't come from nowhere.

[RC most awesomest]

Who are these 'a number of people'

And yes if you disagree with that read you're wrong because it's a pretty strong read: contingent on the premise being true which we've now established it wasn't, it was just general scum tendency to think they need to overreact to and overly question townreads on them to seem towny: which isn't true at all by the way, as scum you shouldn't react to townreads unless you do as town as well.

Does this imply that you have read my iso from any game of mine, completed or otherwise?

I had already read PYP and 1859 because NSG was in them so yes.

[RC most awesomest]

I don't know. I read the threads surrounding the geriatric rule set a while back. You weren't exactly loved.

I mean, me coming in and telling them you can't force every game ever to play under that ruleset wasn't loved by like Shea.
You realize that I was the first person to mod a serious post restricted game and that I invented the ruleset that geriatric games are played under, correct?

[RC most awesomest]

I mean tif hat's true I immediately, before you even responded to it, moved on to saying that it was a hasty townread so what point were you trying to make?

[RC most awesomest]

I have 0 recollection of you doing this in your past games but I wasn't necessarily close reading your posts in them. I'm not really in the mood to meta dive you right now.

VOTE: Uglyduck

super gut scumread 64

[RC most awesomest]

Well that vote wasn't from NSG ;P

oxy, what would make you say that i wouldn't be voting you at that point?

also, what's your read on ruru right now?

Also in general I don't think it's ever the town approach to react to my townread on him (which I immediately 180ed ftr) by calling it bad and arguing that I couldn't have known it was a town thought process. Calling it scummy and being suspicious of it maybe, but what town calls townreads on them bad?

This post is bad. It isn't scummy to call townreads on yourself bad because a bad read is a bad read. (i'm not saying Oxy is town. i'll have to reread thread to get a better grasp of stuff. Oxy and RC were very wordy)

not speaking about oxy specifically here, but just in general i find scum question townreads on them to look towny more often than town actually do.


-nsg

[RC most awesomest]

Also in general I don't think it's ever the town approach to react to my townread on him (which I immediately 180ed ftr) by calling it bad and arguing that I couldn't have known it was a town thought process. Calling it scummy and being suspicious of it maybe, but what town calls townreads on them bad?

This post is bad. It isn't scummy to call townreads on yourself bad because a bad read is a bad read. (i'm not saying Oxy is town. i'll have to reread thread to get a better grasp of stuff. Oxy and RC were very wordy)

if you disagree with me then the chances are pretty damn good that I know something that you don't know as opposed to vice versa.
scum spend a lot more time sorting out townreads on themselves than town do generally

[RC most awesomest]

VOTE: UglyDuck

quack quack

[RC most awesomest]

everyone has not sheeped my scumreads yet you are all going to be utility lynched for helping scum!

[RC most awesomest]

in seriousness, however – why are you scumreading us ruru? i'm assuming that read is based off of RC?

[RC most awesomest]

Awesome

VOTE: Ruru

Screw you. replace out or I'm policy lynching you.

[RC most awesomest]

(Also this doesn't make your slot scummier but lynching RC is +EV by default)

If it's not clear that's a response to this: I find this completely unacceptable and don't want to play with anyone who is going to say this.
I am in a hydra with possibly the easiest person on this site to read, I should be able to get away with this.

[RC most awesomest]

Away from this. I think my meaning is intended. That's really rude.

[RC most awesomest]

Like you complain about 1851 and then you bring the exact same shit that made me hate that game into this one.

[RC most awesomest]

(Also this doesn't make your slot scummier but lynching RC is +EV by default)

Your friend advocated policy lynching me and then I did the same and all of a sudden I'm the bad guy because I was mature enough to say that my problem was with him not his slot?
When you consider this from the POV that if I replace out of this game today NSG gets lynched 0% of the time then yes my slot getting scumread is 100% personal and having to do with me.

How would you like to debate your alignment with someone who says that lynching you is +EV by default because of things that have nothing to do with your town game?

[RC most awesomest]

I'm just going to replace out myself when I talk to NSG. Don't join games with me again either of you or anyone else who thinks the problem here was me.

[RC most awesomest]

When you've dealt with people seriously advocating policy lynches on those grounds time and time again then you see it different than someone like you who will never experience this as a serious part of gameplay.

[RC most awesomest]

So umm, is there something I'm missing or can RC just make an anonymous alt like anyone else?

But yeah I don't understand why playing to win is everyone else's problem.

For the record RC, I really look up to your scum winrate and plan to like study all your games at some point. I don't have anything personal against you (especially not if you're making those posts for an in-game reason), although your posts toward me felt a bit like a personal attack

I want to be able to play with friends and trying to play games anonymously defeats the purpose of playing with friends.

It's not a question of whose problem it is the simple fact that it badly hurts my ability to focus as town and makes the game not fun for me.

I don't want to play with people whose approach to my slot is to treat me like a ticking time bomb regardless of what I do and I don't have the option of avoiding them because so many times the people who end up doing that are people who I have no experience with and have never met before who got that approach to my slot secondhand from other people.

You think that it's not personal because you're just one person trying to play your game but when it's all the time for you you would take it personally too.
It's very easy for you to not understand because you're 'just playing to your wincon' when your assessment of your wincon removes my ability to play the game.

Like you said that I should have assumed Oxy would know of me but I have been extremely low visibility for the last 8 or so months and I was hoping that it would have gone away by now.
Obviously I was wrong in that but I play with newbies in the first place to get away with expectations of me being dragged in from other games.

I think voting with me on UD without interacting at all with my role claim is weird

My vote there is entirely independent of your vote there and I'm not sure what specific engagement you think that I should have with your role claim.

Wrt 95

Do you think that I shouldn't townread you?

No, I'm just wondering where the strength of the read comes from – it's a lot more confident of a read than most other people in the game seem to have and you entered the thread with it.

Despite me townreading (misreading) CoA I almost reevaluated at that point because the whole idea of NSG questioning me townlocking her felt so weird.
She did not question my correct locktowning of her in, for exampe, 1 vig 2 mafia 6 vts. This is universally applicable. People who I townread rarely question my townreads on them.
It's sort of the inverse of people over questioning even reasonable town scumreads on them, town expect to be townread.

Generally when people have a chip on their shoulder about being entitled to being townread and lash out at even reasonable scumreads on them it's a towntell.

You can agree or disagree but I'm 100% right on this and NSG wouldn't have backed me up if she disagreed with my theory regardless of her alignment.

[RC most awesomest]

Also I think your approach of sending the best players to heaven is dead wrong
strongest players should stay on the ground, I'd send like whoever I read as like weakest >80% town in the game to heaven
nightless games perform far above equity but only because they keep town powerhouses in play, you lynch them it might as well not be nightless

according to awoo equity is 32% which is pretty awful. I would never advocate sending myself to heaven unless it was like super late game

[RC most awesomest]

It's not about that it's about the fact that I don't want to play with people who have that mentality and I don't think you should find it hard to see why.

I don't think that anyone has ever benefited from random paranoia of me when I was scum: in the two games I was lynched as scum unintentionally last year one was because I replaced an absolute dead slot and the other I had decided that winning the game wasn't worth it and there was serious situational reasoning to scumread me. On the other hand, there's over a dozen games where town massively suffered because people decided to paranoia read me.

Like it might feel like you're doing something but you're not and when you errantly scumread me it makes people take your read less seriously in the future. In basically all the games last year where someone did correctly catch me as scum they had so many instances where they were sure I was scum as town that no one took their read seriously.

If you want to actually have a chance of taking scum games off of me the first thing that you need to learn to do is correctly townread me.

I made some intentionally weird posts that were probably hard to read (which by itself is more beneficial to scum than town), and didn't give a real reason for voting UD. I would kinda expect town to try to sort me in that situation, and try to assess whether or not I would be bussing UD as scum

I have had you as locktown since basically the very beginning of the game. I don't play the game like you seem to think that I do.

[RC most awesomest]

If I'm going to heaven I want to basically assign the lynches and heavens for the remainder of the game.

[RC most awesomest]

All of that fails to factor in the fact that particularly in a nightless game your reads are far above rand by that late in the game.

Nightless games continually perform far above EV.

[RC most awesomest]

My point is that it's never correct to rand here basically

[RC most awesomest]

The last thing I would want to do is policy send someone like myself to heaven because of how bad sending scum to heaven is in this setup

but knowing that I'm town fighting over not being sent to heaven is never worth it here.

[RC most awesomest]

I don't feel like arguing about this while the game is ongoing but your understanding of correct mafia play is almost entirely wrong.

[RC most awesomest]

okay maybe I will go into some theory

so

1) basically your whole approach to me is backwards. I am town far more than I am scum and generally pretty damn effective as town when I'm given my space while my play quality suffers a lot when not given my space. If you're going to play guilty until proven innocent with me you're heavily reducing your winrate in the most common position that this situation would come up, the one where we're both town. furthermore, the question has to be raised how much win equity do you actually think you're giving yourself in the games that I -am- scum, because holistically going through the games where I've had to deal with crap like this it has not damaged my scum winrate. What it has done is ruined a lot of very easy town wins. If you can't read me the assumption shouldn't be that I'm scum, it should be that I'm town. Unless PoE gets to a point where there's no real scumspects outside of me or you have an actual, good reason to believe that I'm scum, convincing yourself to be paranoid of me when the game doesn't demand it is self sabotage. you'll notice all the people that deal with me at all effectively do so by understanding that their read on me is meaningless and let me prove my alignment other ways, ie by some sort of proficiencying my reads or PoEing the game down and only going after me when the rest of the game are townreads. And they still mostly end up being wrong when they go for me. You're trying to treat this like something it's not, if I were scum here you don't realistically win the game any significant proportion of the time and you shouldn't try to scrape the 1% win equity against scum me that you can maybe pull together by deciding to lose most of the games that we're town together. Games where I get mislynched generally end in town being absolutely torn apart and never being able to collect itself, because if I didn't hard protect myself from being mislynched I would be mislynched literally every game.

If you're town, we don't get to benefit fully from your actual town playing strength because everyone will be too paranoid to sheep your reads (I realize this is a self-fulfilling prophecy for your town game but the point of the game is to play to win, not to make RC happy)

This should bother you a lot more than it does. While the outcomes where I'm scum and win are a lot more salient than the ones where you lost because I didn't get to play the game properly, assuming you're town I'm still town 5/8ths of the time and in other setups a fuckton more often than that. (we're town.)

Then why is your vote on me? Do you think it's worth policy lynching a locktown player to hell who has admittedly weak reads, and probably won't ever be able to convince others you're scum?

My attitude basically is that I have confidence in my ability to solve the game once I have space.
Hell lynches are only important in this game so far as it's important that in 9 way, 7 way, or 6 way JD scum goes down, the game is decided by heaven lynches.
Hypothetically if no one else would be interested in going after me and I could swing your lynch I would do it 100% of the time because I think it boosts town WR
that said in this setup I'd much prefer to send you to heaven so that we don't actually have to play together, and if we lose to JD because of you at least that gives an extremely salient message to everyone here about the consequences of the way you're playing. Also I'm pretty sure we wouldn't get to JD, but that may be my overconfidence speaking.

My reads have developed no further than they were before you made the higher win equity to lynch me as either alignment comment.

Sending me to heaven tomorrow is also perfectly viable but like... if I was scum that's the equivalent of saying that I'm going to win anyway so just give me the win, which is the opposite of what you've been trying to do. I don't think that you've thought through your stance as much as you're doing what feels like the right play.

[RC most awesomest]

VOTE: ruru

Send ruru+N_M to hell and we win. Simple.

Not that I'm particularly scumreading AP but why does this read make AP town Oxy?

[RC most awesomest]

we're town
ruru feels vtown
invisibility feels like he did as town
teacher is probably +rand town
alchemist has 1 post
AP has been posting elsewhere but given the way the day went I don't think that's necessarily that indicative
Oxy I'm torn on, read on him is heavily contingent on flips right now
N_M as well, for him it's probably more indicative because i'd have expected him to try to policy lynch me by now if he were town
Duck is ick

I'm going to glory solve the game as Oxy/N_M/Duck with Alchemist interchangeable with anyone until he does stuff
mostly excluding AP because Oxy/AP does not feel like SvS and Oxy has bad associatives with both Duck (random gut townread) and NM (townreading AP for scumreading them)

[RC most awesomest]

eh

I think AP is actually town
was probably wrong on teacher as well, not really townreading that

[RC most awesomest]

N_M is on V/LA

[RC most awesomest]

nah teacher's town, at least assuming that duck flips scum
AP is still okay but I guess it could be scum

VOTE: duck

[RC most awesomest]

I think that you're more likely to be town than someone who I have literally no information on, more likely to be town than random

[RC most awesomest]

237 feels town

[RC most awesomest]

really oxy?

[RC most awesomest]

VOTE: Muru

just end it, oxy tomorrow

[RC most awesomest]

I'm reporting it the moment I see a flip

[RC most awesomest]

AP if you're town the game is over anyway just relax and enjoy the ride

[RC most awesomest]

reflections you used to see never look alike to me

get out get out get get get out get get get out of here

[RC most awesomest]

PYTHON EWW

[RC most awesomest]

you realize oxy basically scumclaimed and everything now is just formalities because I asked the mod and he said he will not allow scum to forfeit, correct?

[RC most awesomest]

like if I get to L-1 before you get hammered I'll selfhammer but your approach to the game is still wrong, etc etc.

[RC most awesomest]

he had gotten off that train and started playing the game normally for a long time though. he just went back to replacing out when Duck got hammered.
I don't agree with your interpretation of events and I strongly believe him reacting in that manner is scum in the first place, but again

if you get me to L-1 I'll hammer on the condition that you go to heaven tomorrow

[RC most awesomest]

I don't like losing games

[RC most awesomest]

it felt to me like he had entirely shifted focus: he never said anything about my slot from there on out and was trying to be cordial and stuff.

[RC most awesomest]

By positive effect you mean the fact that if Oxy isn't scum then you don't have me here to give input and risk you guys sending scum to heaven and making this game winnable again for scum?

[RC most awesomest]

If we don't send scum to heaven we just need to correctly lynch 1 of the 2 remaining scum
if we DO send scum to heaven then we have to lynch the 1 specific scum

making your decisions off of probabilities that don't accurately reflect the way that mafia is played is a recipe for disaster.

You're trying to overcompensate for my scum game in a situation where as scum I would have just taken the invitation to heaven.

[RC most awesomest]

stop determining strategy based off of simulated results that assume random lynching please.

[RC most awesomest]

like let's assume that you're town.

If I'm scum, then you don't want me going to heaven because I'm scum and then you have to correctly catch out my specific buddy instead of having a chance at lynching either of us
If I'm town, then you don't want me going to heaven because I'm going to contribute more than you: no offense given that you voted scum D1 but I'm a lot more confident in my self than I am in you.

The only rational option if you continue to argue against being d2 lynched is to d3 lynch you

Your approach to the game is not rational because you're using terrible logic and models that don't capture the actual game

[RC most awesomest]

There is no reason for my resistance here as scum unless I'm trying to make a show of how much I don't want to for the sake of making sure it goes through.

Real life towns are going to be much, much better than random at avoiding sending a scum #2 to heaven

I have given both theoretical and practical reasons why lynching me today is terrible and all you've done is say I'm wrong

You've argued that keeping you in the game as a conftown instead of sending you to heaven is a conftown when that doesn't make sense
we need 4 conftowns for 2 way JD, 4 way, 6 way, 8 way. The order that we use them doesn't matter except in the sense that we should save the strongest for last

Your practical reason is that if I'm scum and don't get sent to heaven that's somehow worse for town than if I'm scum and do get send to heaven.

Please just trust me to solve the game.

[RC most awesomest]

Your understanding of EV is wrong because you're using mathematical models that don't actually apply to the actual game because lynches aren't actually random.
if we have 4 correct townreads we win the game that's what I'm looking for and I trust myself more than I trust you to find two more people who are never going to be scum.

I want an 100% chance of winning this game.

[RC most awesomest]

Simple question: is it better to send town!you or scum!me to heaven, and if so, why?

[RC most awesomest]

Like you're treating the heaven send as a flip for some reason. If you hit town it's beneficial in the sense that you confirmed someone as town but that's illusory.
If you hit scum it's extremely bad.

I don't believe you or anyone else has 100% to solo carry town

If you treat me as IC, the theoretical EV of lynching scum!you is 67% win
The theoretical EV of lynching me is 60% win

This is without implementing optimal town strategy, or even considering how dangerous you are as scum

Oh no I'm so dangerous as scum I'm probably going to get autosent to hea- oh wait.
This is 100% wrong by the way: I'm not sure what's making the numbers wrong but I am 100% that this is not how this game works.
Even if the numbers were correct I'd strongly argue that, fypov

2/7ths odds of me being scum = 2% increased win equity based on the difference
5/7ths of the time me being town I only need to make the game about 3% more likely to end in a win by being kept alive
town average winrate last year was about 40%, mine was well above 50%. I am worth that 3%.

You're saying you want to lynch obvtown in order to find 4 other obvtowns and that doing this is somehow a 100% play

I am saying that I want to send heaven to town 3 times in a row and then have another town to win 2 way JD
That is how the game is never lost. Playing to win is how the game is won if it's played well but has the potential for error.

[RC most awesomest]

What are your reads then AP

[RC most awesomest]

It's significantly easier to correctly pin one out of two scum than it is to pin one single scum.

No, 5/7ths of the time you're killing an obvtown slot just so that you can play the game on later days. That's the issue, and it's more like 20% than 3%

You are never going to be obvtown in this game

PoE is strong, even more so when I can't get NKed

You are basically trying to NK me right now

If you want to call it that, then yes I would prefer you be nightkilled over myself.
I think most rational doctors in most games would have the same assessment.
I would also strongly argue that I already -am- obvtown for refusing to go to heaven if nothing else, but I don't expect to convince you of that because if a cop outed with an inno on me you would probably advocate lynching the cop to be sure that the inno is real.

So basically you're saying you want to be responsible for the loss if we lose, and you're willing to decrease our actual winrate just so it's not somebody else losing you the game

I sympathize with that but it's not rational

I strongly disagree that giving me only one or two JDs with which to solve the game, and those only if town plays properly the remainder of the game, is increasing town win equity.

[RC most awesomest]

This game is white flag. You are advocating for what would be, if I was scum, taking away one vector for town to win the game (ie lynching me.)
With two scum alive unless both scum are power playing to the point that they're going to heaven anyway someone has to be responsible for the lynch
you're arguing it's better for equity to (if I was scum) have an entirely associative and responsibility less trek for me to heaven that my partner is never associated with

you're now hypothetically hunting for a serial killer in a haystack.

[RC most awesomest]

Bluntly I haven't actually considered it: you may hypothetically be right about what I would do if I was scum. But it's never the right move to send town!me to heaven.

If I thought my slot was in jeopardy I would go for it but I feel pretty damn confident I never get lynched this game so I see it as extremely non beneficial

[RC most awesomest]

No. If we lynch two scum to hell the game is over.

[RC most awesomest]

yes.

[RC most awesomest]

Wait was ruru trying to like

send two scum to hell and then stall to 2 way and that was why she didn't want to go to heaven?

[RC most awesomest]

nah ruru's town but lol

[RC most awesomest]

SIS IT'S IN YOUR ROLE PM

[RC most awesomest]

invis, without at all implying that you're scum, can you please vote Ruru

[RC most awesomest]

I mean given that in my last game where I was also town I asked to be sent to heaven D2 (because I didn't have the mental energy to deal with being errantly scumread at the time) I could have gone along with you if I wanted to. All that this says is that I didn't want to go to heaven today. I would have if I wanted to.

[RC most awesomest]

fwiw you seem like a lot of fun to play with and I look forward to chatting in martyr topic with you later. I wouldn't send you to heaven if I had anyone else I was sure on.

[RC most awesomest]

I mean. I'll probably avoid you in future games because I think we both feel like our wincons require us to do things that are mutually compatible as town.

But I think that's just us being incompatible and that doesn't extend to be me disliking you or anything

[RC most awesomest]

I'm not especially enthusiastic about most things on your lynch order

Where does Alchemist21 fit into everything?

[RC most awesomest]

1) I don't want to lynch AP tomorrow. I'm not especially scumreading them, I really think Oxy was scum and Hiraki's entrance felt extremely pockety of me + never wanting that slot to go to endgame so that's who I want down tomorrow.

2) I don't understand why you're putting me in front of Teacher and Alchemist. Are you really scumreading me over them or are you just refusing to let me get to endgame on a principle thing?

3) I am not enthusiastic about sheeping your preordained lynch order in general regardless of your being conftown I am still more confident in my own ability to solve the game + I get access to boatloads more information in the days to come.

4) I am extremely wary of the fact that people were pushing for Invisibility to be JDed over yourself. I'm not sure that makes him scum but I'm not enthusiastic about testing it.

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ngl I think AP is town

I'm not 100% sure they'd be my first pick for heaven but they're up there if oxy is town

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Me and NSG have a very different view of the progression of this game than you do though, and neither of us are in any rush to play our cards though so

So if Hiraki or N_M flips green, we can more confidently send Invis to heaven

Why is AP town

I honestly can't put anything to it besides gut. It's less a specific townread on him and more that I have to ask myself what scum are doing if Hiraki isn't scum.

First off, I still need tl read through but I came on and first thing I see is that we're in Heaven phase already. What happened to move the game so quickly?

duck was obvscum and got lynched, basically?

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Actually I'll put this into writing while you're still here

there's basically 3 categories of people wrt Duck

There's the people who actively resisted it to some extent (Oxy/Hiraki & AP)
There's the people who make sense on either side of the spectrum (N_M, Alchemist, Teacher) -note that order matters
There's the people who actively pushed it (Myself, Ruru, Invisibility)

The categories don't cover everything but like

I actually don't think Hiraki/Invisibility, for example, are ever paired simply because I think that if one scum busses the rest don't usually actually fight the wagon, particularly in a setup like this

So let's say you lynch Hiraki tomorrow (which I agree with now) and he flips green

Is AP still townier than Invis?

Yes because like unless he's scum with like NM there's no partners that really make sense like if the scumteam were bussing why doesn't he just hop on kinda deal
Whereas invisibility makes sense with basically any of the remaining players
it's really rare to see one scummate bus and another hard oppose and in a 3 player setup especially I think scum would be generally doing the same thing

the most likely AP scum universe to me is actually the one where he's scum with Hiraki and scum just didn't want to let duck go

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It's hard for me to take your word on this being likely or unlikely without knowing your alignment although at the same time I kinda don't see you making this argument as scum if you know it's wrong? Hmm

I would think scum would often want to split 2:1 (because random voting is most likely to split 2:1) and less commonly 3:0, specifically to stop VCA

Is there any theoretical reason why you think scum should play differently, or is just empirical?

Actually I think I understand. If they're bothering to bus d1 but split 1:1 then there's a major risk of autolosing if town decides to lynch off-wagon

Hmm

Basically if one of them is going to bus the lynch is going to go through often enough so why not have both of them take towncred or at least not defend it to the point of being lynched after

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But then he put the RC slot as a candidate for Heaven? And on the basis of the slot having good scumhunters...

One of the other things that stuck out about Oxy in prior posts was that they were so combatant with RC, and they apparently had some familiarity with them, but I wasn't sure if that was just personality clash or scum trying to attack a potentially strong Town slot. It's looking like the latter here.

I also got secret alt who knows more than he's saying vibes from Oxy ftr.

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basically anyone, no one's line of play precludes having a lurker buddy. probably points towards scum not bussing if anything though

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Yeah, I guess.

Is that because of your read on AP or Alchemist?

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I would prefer to go for the highest equity lynch and aorn I think that is hiraki

If that's like your dying wish I will go for it but if it flips town I'm gonna do things my own way for the remainder

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if I have no clear townreads I would probably push for myself to go to heaven in 6 way, if someone's obvtowned at that point I can go for them

honestly I feel like you'd end up killing me in JD or I'd be less worried about getting myself to heaven

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honestly the thing is if I were scum I'd be more likely to say yes

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Can we please just hammer and move on thank you

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Also I am going to half OMGUS / half based on merit vote:

VOTE: Invisibility

Also I am going to half OMGUS / half based on merit vote:

VOTE: Invisibility

wait what the crap i didn't vote you

Like this is bad. vote felt like a TMI vote on a buddy and the lack of immediate response into him addressing a whole bunch of other stuff is weird.
Invis doesn't have to be scum or town but this is really bad and I don't understand why so many people have this as top townread atm.

particularly over Ruru who bleeds obvtown even if her reads aren't necessarily the greatest

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Ruru is at L-2

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wait is it possible that NM could be trying to get ruru to l-1 so he can quickhammer

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fuck i didn't expect that

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You were aware that I was being sarcastic, correct?

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You think that I should be townreading Invisibility then? why?

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I don't understand why you would have a problem there. I would intend to never go to heaven and go to 2 way if I was confident that I would never be killed in JD.
Being that that's not the case I would prefer to go to heaven at some point so I can call the hell lynch after and determine the JD lynch by my reads as opposed to just obvtowning.

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if I have no clear townreads I would probably push for myself to go to heaven in 6 way, if someone's obvtowned at that point I can go for them

honestly I feel like you'd end up killing me in JD or I'd be less worried about getting myself to heaven

I have a stronger TR on RC within the last few pages. Invisibility is still my number 1 choice here.

Wait didn't you say that you had a stronger townread on me after I had already made that post?

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Ruru hasn't flipped town: if you didn't think that she was town at that point when did you change your mind.
I mean ftr I feel really bad for you because this is two games in a row ruined by scum replacing out in obvious ways, but I think town was always winning this game so.

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I'm not scum and if you're not scum I still want you dead if you're going to push on me + predecessor's actions so.

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I mean I knew you were scum the moment Oxy replaced out after not bringing me up again for the duration of the game
but yeah if you're going to push on me you can absolutely die. particularly when you should know better than to be scumreading me here.

Not that I would attempt to use that against you here if I wasn't otherwise scumreading you because of how badly that tell has burned me, but.

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I'm never letting anyone else get lynched tomorrow and that was true before you replaced in.

If you're town you're free to do whatever you want up to and including calling me scum.

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VOTE: hiraki

If you're town ask the mod for spoilers and don't call me scum ever again.

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Not posting here until I see a flip.

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Question here isn't who we think is most town

It's whose scumflip makes the game easiest

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It occurs to me in my assessment of the game since we got scum D1 I wasn't really looking at the possibility of losing due to early JD. I wonder how many viable scumteama there actually are here.

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Give me until tonight and I promise a gamesolve

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Ftr you never let a slot like Hiraki's go ever.
He may have been town but the lynch was always correct
Particularly given he was pushing on me

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don't vote anyone till im back

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I don't trust the people pushing invis or invis themselves. I don't care much for an invis townflip, I suppose I quicklynch NM on a scumflip but I don't put it past him to be this bad.so
AP I think is town but if I'm wrong and push for it I think I end in losing the game most of the time.
Alchemist while decent town equity if they flip scum puts us in a really shitty situation, especially if I pushed for it.
Not_Mafia is scum too much of the time to be worth considering

so that leaves teacher who is in the intersection of town ~80% of the time, has a few people who I have strong not partner reads, and whose scum flip is probably survivable for town and probably helps narrow things down enough to be worth it

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VOTE: Teacher

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I will speak to Oxy since my other game with them just ended. I believe it was a personality clash. I dont think the replacement is alignment indicative. I think he was also sharing genuine info on RC.

None of that is alignment indicative. He didnt post enough here for me to have a feel for his alignment here. Because of the voting pattern and posts here (alone, without the other game) I think he is scum, but its not a terribly strong read.

FWIW, Im not a good heaven candidate. Dont care how you read me, Im fairly new here and my own reads are not good enough yet.

I'm also going to say that if scum were going to do some sort of an I don't want to go to heaven spiel it would look a lot less sincere than this.
@Teacher I think you're the best option here regardless of your previous reluctance, it's not about your reads its about the fact that hitting town today means having a 70% chance of winning minimum and in the gamestate I think that number is actually basically 100

[RC most awesomest]

something something those who don't seek power are often the most qualified to possess it

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N_M withholding the hammer on Teacher is at least is indicative that AP/NM scumteam is unlikely. If they're scum together they could have just power wagoned the players they wanted to go through and have the entire gamestate setup as they like it.

Which may be what's happening with the wagons that have the same 3 people but since there's at least 1 Town in that group it's not something I can immediately say "these players are all powerwolfing together".

this made literally no sense, not that I sr AP

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every single wagon of the game has been led by me basically up to and including this creature wagon. you're saying that people who have done virtually nothing are powerwolfing.

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@teacher presuming that you're town, if you have any last read input to give now is the time to do so.

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did I really say creature instead of teacher

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VCA is shit. read the game.

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for the record if this flips wolf, the reason I chose this over myself is that I think martyrs are more likely to make a horrible shot on teacher rather than myself.

if that happens I strongly suggest we burden of proficiency the remainder of the game: give me control over both hell lynches and if I fail to hit scum in that time you are free to kill me in the last judgement day. I do not think that this flips wolf, but if it does that does not make me scum.

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it's pretty obviously not alchemist/AP based on associatives from either party. 1/2 at best.

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I think it's NM invisibility.

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I don't want to commit to anything without seeing a filp here though.

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No. I want to win this game today as opposed to tomorrow. If we lynch you then I don't trust Ruru to stick with their townread on NM and do something stupid like shoot Alchemist

I'm deciding whether to vote invis or NM

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I don't trust Ruru not to do something stupid like stick with their townread on NM bla bla bla

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I should really be trying hard to come off as towny given that this might go to JD but meh. if Ruru/teach shoot me they deserve to lose.

I just want to end this today

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Okay but like from the point of view of knowing that you're town and I'm town if we lynch for the win today we have the chance of avoiding JD altogether
I'm also fairly sure that most of the people scumreading you are scum so.
It takes all 3 town to successfully lynch scum so if even one town is being dumb it's impossible for us to lynch scum
but at the very least we draw the battle lines.

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if you're not white flag gambitting then vote there.

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why would it?

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So what if we think of this in terms of eliminating all possibilities over two lynches as opposed to trying to get one good one?

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Bigger picture I don't think the martyr topic ever kills invis or kills someone on grounds of being scumbuddies with invis
only person I buy with anyone alive, probably highest scum equity after that last post, and that lynch doesn't happen unless we brute force it now so

VOTE: Invisibility

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there is ostensibly enough support to get this lynch through. let's see who votes.

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VOTE: Alchemist

Alright, guys. I'm gonna go on a limb and say it's Alch (100%) and RC (80%). I no longer think N_M would play like that as scum, and I;m certain Invisibility is TOWN here.

RC persistence on pushing Invisibility is highly suspicious to me, and coupled with the inexplicable defense of a clear scum (Alch) it's almost damning.

However, I know TC can be this stubborn as town, so I give him 20% being RC and 80% being manipulative scum.

Worthy of note that NSG isn't exactly active here because she hates playing scum.

We lynch Alch and if I'm right we win instantly anyway. If I'm wrong then RC is confirmed town and it's N_M + Invisibility and I will declare myself a moron in this case (if Sum are N_M AND Invisibility)

NSG has been v/la due to rl circumstances this entire week and if I rolled scum with her I'd have been writing posts for her.

I am voting no one else here.

Presuming you're town, you literally can't lynch anyone else today without my support: if you think Alch is scum with like NM then I'm fine agreeing that heaven kill goes there

I

this flips town

I pinned invis town off of four posts last game, I'm better at reading them than you are and the D1 associatives between him and duck are awful and he's made no attempt to scumhunt at any point post D1.

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I've had one wrong read this game. Trust me here ffs.

If Alch refuses to hammer invis then we'll know if you're right on him but invis is one of the two scum

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Like I am the one here who has played with town alchemist before and I have seen enough to say that his posting being this bad does not guarantee him being scum. Ugly spewed invis scum hard

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Sry invis

I think you would have had this if i wasn't around.

Tbh I don't know why people were townreading you but you were doing something right so.

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Was last scum alchemist?

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Oh I thought you were giving up
Who do you think the scum are if they're not you?

Assuming you get lynched who would you want heaven to vig?

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If I was scum scum would have more than a 50% chance of winning here.

I'll make NSG play I guess since our slot needs to obvtown.

I think it's NM + 1/2 AP/Alch

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She had the VLA flag I'm not outing her personal shit but there's a reason she only did most duties and posted in one game.

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Mod duties.

And I would never have let her be a nonentity if we were scum this is predictable as fuck. I could have just written posts for her if I needed to.

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Why have you, as town, given scum a 50% chance of winning, I thought you were better than that?

I hope heaven realizes that this is scum gloating

I'll have a lot to say tomorrow

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viewtopic.php?f=51&t=75812

another NM scumgame btw
it was my birthday I'm too drunk to handle this I need to sleep, promise to do my job either tomorrow or the day after.

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Guess tomorrow for this I was too drunk

NSG didn't feel like jumping in on 'my' game ftr which is what she sees this as at this point.

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Shrug

If I were town I'd have been killed there too and I had RL shit to do so.