Mini 2011: Partition Mafia (Game Over)

[zMuffinMan]

anyway, i'm going to do some ISO-diving when i get home and decide what i want to do today and what i think is best (maybe an hour from now)

[BuJaber]

Same as what we can say now. Except with an increased chance of 2 scum in group 2. Probably points to one of the PR claimers.

And who agreed to that solution of yours apart from you? There were still people opposed to that. I don't actually remember you saying it I thought you were advocating for a group 2 lynch without swaps the whole time. You and dramon did not seem flexible on that point and THAT I was strongly opposed to. You don't just lynch the group wothout swaps when there are 2 PRs in it, one of which is confirmable so at least we'd know that wisdom isn't lying about the claim which could come in handy for setup spec even if you donXt townread him for it. Not to mention we can strongarm his choices.

You and dramon wanted to lynch group 2 as it was without doing anything which was a decent choice back when we had WIFOM only but once we have PR claims in it you never do that.

I'm not saying you have to townread koki and wisdom but by advocating to lynch group 2 without swaps you are advocating for the exact move you would be doing if koki and wisdom were confirmed scum. It is a play that assumes they are scum. Any other assumption makes it a bad move. If you don't trust them you come up with a way to test them. You don't just punish them for claiming.

The whole basis for the 100% guaranteed scum thing is that koki is telling the truth or is scum. If he is scum he has to be the only scum in group 2 otherwise it's a dumb ass move and koki is way too smart for that. You can easily swap him with some other suspect and lynch and see if he was lying or not.

The compromise I remember you talking about is swapping yourself with fitz (I think.. maybe it was eddie) If you did suggest this one then it was buried in your pushes for no swaps at all and I'm sordy I missed it. I do know that dramon never suggested something like that though.

All of that still isn't about the point I made. I was saying if we took the time to agree to the swaps and swap orders then town would be in control of your PRs and we would be able to trust you both because lying would be suicide for either of you. Nobody was willing to come up to an agreement. Everyone was still arguing about whether to swap or not and whether wisdom is town and whatever. Stuff that didn't actually matter. Because all the claims so far in this game can be tested and managed. It's all out in the open and during the day.

You shouldn't have ignored everything I planned out just because you didn't like the players I was swapping.
Especially when I then followed through with a very flexible plan that basically gave freedom to any swap you choose as long as you go first and wisdom goes second and pine/riku are both lynched.

But even my completely flexible and reasonable plan was ignored. So whatever we're now basically relying on reads only. Since the whole swapping thing was done haphazardly.

[dramonic]

Because all the claims so far in this game can be tested and managed. It's all out in the open and during the day.

How's that working for you so far?

[dramonic]

holy fuck it's my scumday

[BuJaber]

Because all the claims so far in this game can be tested and managed. It's all out in the open and during the day.

How's that working for you so far?

Is that my fault?

I can't single handedly force wisdom and muffin to swap town's choices under threat of lynching them. I need support.

What should have happened is an unofficial vote for who muffin swaps and an unofficial vote for who wisdom swaps and we go with majority for both and if muffin/wisdom don't comply we treat them as confscum.

[zMuffinMan]

Same as what we can say now. Except with an increased chance of 2 scum in group 2. Probably points to one of the PR claimers.

sorry, but you're dead wrong. this is largely irrelevant to the game right now (and heavily theory-based) so i'll spoiler it but read the following if you want to know why you are wrong about the current situation being the same as the one with zero swaps

Spoiler:

the following is talking about the current situation vs the situation where we lynched without swapping, just to illustrate why "the same as what we can say now" is completely and utterly incorrect

i'm going to try to simply illustrate this with the 5 possible scenarios (feel free to ignore the ones where i suppose that you're scum, i'm just including them for completeness):

1) scum-wisdom, scum-kokichi, town-buj
2) scum-wisdom, town-kokichi, town-buj
3) scum-wisdom, town-kokichi, scum-buj
4) town-wisdom, scum-kokichi, town-buj
5) town-wisdom, town-kokichi, scum-buj

(note #1: i'm not including the scenario town-wisdom, scum-kokichi, scum-buj because that just seems absurd to me - the logic in the following would be the same though)
(note #2: pine and riku have been left out of these because worst-case scenario assumes they're town)
(note #3: i'm also leaving out scum-wisdom, scum-kokichi, scum-buj for what should be obvious reasons when looking at worst-case scenarios)

with NO swapping, lynching group 2, the worst case scenarios are:
1)

2 dead scum

, town can look back at who said what about wisdom's plan to lynch a different group and town can look back at what people said about kokichi's claim
2)

1 dead scum

, town can look back at who said what about wisdom's plan to lynch a different group
3)

2 dead scum

, town can look back at who said what about wisdom's plan to lynch a different group and town can look back at who called buj town and why
4)

1 dead scum

, town can look back at what people said about kokichi's claim
5)

1 dead scum

, town can look back at who called buj town and why

with swapping, lynching group 3, the worst case scenarios are:
1)

0 dead scum

, town doesn't know who is scum in the trio of {wisdom, kokichi, buj} or even whether there is more than one
2)

0 dead scum

, town doesn't know who is scum in the trio of {wisdom, kokichi, buj} or even whether there is more than one
3)

0 dead scum

, town doesn't know who is scum in the trio of {wisdom, kokichi, buj} or even whether there is more than one
4)

0 dead scum

, town doesn't know who is scum in the trio of {wisdom, kokichi, buj} or even whether there is more than one
5)

0 dead scum

, town doesn't know who is scum in the trio of {wisdom, kokichi, buj} or even whether there is more than one

do you notice a common theme here? do you see a pattern? do you see the difference between the two scenarios?

the counter-argument here is "but muffin, what about reads?"

the answer to this is simple: you shouldn't be gambling games on your reads being correct when there is a clearly optimal alternative. if your reads are correct, they'll be correct tomorrow as well. but if your reads are incorrect, you screw town

and it doesn't matter what your reads are; if someone has information that guarantees scum, you do what's necessary to guarantee the scum lynch

this is just basic theory. i'm sorry, but there is no sensible counter-argument and there is no argument to be had here

being confident about reads is all fine and dandy, but making decisions based on the assumption that you're right when there is a clearly superior alternative (in terms of how badly things could turn out in the absolute worst-case scenario) is how towns lose games

if you want to discuss the theory behind this or anything else i'm writing, i'm more than happy to post-game or when we're both dead but it should probably be kept out of the game for now (thus the spoiler)

And who agreed to that solution of yours apart from you? There were still people opposed to that. I don't actually remember you saying it I thought you were advocating for a group 2 lynch without swaps the whole time. You and dramon did not seem flexible on that point and THAT I was strongly opposed to.

i'm not taking credit for the solution since i think others would have come to the same conclusion independently, but the solution i suggested was also suggested by DV and eddie

here's some quotes!

Spoiler:

that's basically why the ONLY alternative i might consider is swapping exactly ONE player out of group 2 and lynching it. any other scenario is suboptimal play. and even that is suboptimal, but whatever

at best i'd be willing to accept one swap (say, buj) because at least there exists a possibility of swapping a different scum player in and in the unlikely event they all flip town then buj is scum anyway (i doubt this happens, but this is the absolute worst case scenario)

if you had control of the swap, who would you swap (if anyone) DV?

I would swap Bu and Fitz and still lynch group 2 I think

this is one of the only options i'd actually be fine with. it's the option i suggested to wisdom if people really want him to use his swap

if he tries to use it selfishly and lynch outside of group 2, i think i'm still going to swap him afterward

or i might sleep on it and reconsider -- i suppose the other option is him doing his selfish swap, me swapping someone like hf and just lynching the group after it but that's not as good as just lynching group 2 i think

i already made it clear what i think is optimal

(plus the alternative i think is reasonable too)

i think eddie's already posted his own quotes where he agreed with the gist of the alternative i suggested (i think he was even suggesting it before i was maybe, though he had a preference for swapping out kokichi)

maybe all this was missed in the spam-fest (though i guarantee wisdom read it)

The whole basis for the 100% guaranteed scum thing is that koki is telling the truth or is scum. If he is scum he has to be the only scum in group 2 otherwise it's a dumb ass move and koki is way too smart for that.

no, this is wrong too. see: the fact that people are considering lynching group 3 right now. if wisdom and kokichi are scum together and the play that wisdom is trying to push actually goes through, then this was actually a *smart* plan

but yes, the basis for lynching group 2

was

that kokichi is telling the truth or scum and it nets us at least 1-2 (or unlikely as it might be, 3) scum as a result

now lynching group 2 potentially yields 0 scum (but would confirm riku as scum in that case)

this is possibly still a better outcome than lynching group 3, i'm undecided about that and still thinking over the scenarios here

I was saying if we took the time to agree to the swaps and swap orders then town would be in control of your PRs and we would be able to trust you both because lying would be suicide for either of you.

ok. and i'm telling you that any plan that involved swapping more than one person out of group 2 followed by lynching it was bad, and that plan is still worse than not swapping at all

that's why i never would have agreed to swap first, even apart from other issues with your plan

that's why i kept insisting the only alternative i'd consider was swapping someone out for someone else followed by lynching group 2

[zMuffinMan]

weighing up the pros and cons of not swapping and lynching G2 vs swapping one of pine or hf

or dv

and lynching G3

i think the former is still technically optimal, but im gonna start doing some re-reading to firm up reads

[BuJaber]

First of all I was never the one suggesting we lynch group 3. That was wisdom my idea was to swap people into group 2 to make it more scummy.

Second of all you don't account for the possibility of town koki town wisdom (and town Buj). Which is the strongest possibility in my mind followed by koki scum town wisdom.

Thirdly you're not factoring in the advantage of having confirmed towns. And not factoring in the negative EV of town deaths.

Now that you've explained it nicely yes I can see where I went wrong with the 100% guaranteed scum lynch. But that play is not the optimal play. It isn't even the least risky. It is simply the one that guarantees 1 scum dead.

The advantage of swapping out koki is that you either know for sure that he is scum OR you kill 1 scum AND confirms koki town.

The advantage of swapping out wisdom is that if someone else flips scum you have wisdom's ability to use again or even if he doesn't have a 2nd shot he might soak up the scum's kill if they think he has a 2nd shot.



For now please swap pine and let's lynch G3. G2 is tainted by wisdom's swap we can't lynch it based on koki's claim anymore.

[BuJaber]

Your strategy sacrifices long-term town gain for the short term small victory.

[zMuffinMan]

i know that wasn't your idea - that wasn't the point

i'm not accounting for the possibility of all 3 of you being town because i'm looking at worst-case scenarios... of course in the scenario that all 3 of you are town, it's good to swap the other two out. the point that has been made many, many, many, many times is that this is far from a certainty... you say you think that's likely. ok. i disagree. or rather, it's not something i feel strongly enough to practically bet a game on

there are no confirmed town players

that play was the least risky play, actually - that's why it was optimal - no other play guarantees one scum dead

at minimum

if we had swapped kokichi out and wisdom flipped scum, i would not consider kokichi confirmed town

not going to talk about the wisdom logic, but you're wrong

wisdom's swap hasn't entirely tainted G2; if it's all town (or all town minus the REAL MAN), that confirms riku as scum. if the REAL MAN is scum, it means 1 dead, 1 confirmed. that's still better than the worst case scenario with a G3 lynch but i'm considering the option - at least, i'll be taking public opinion into account! i think that's a

wise

thing to do! (yes, i'm hilarious, you don't need to point this out, i already know)

[zMuffinMan]

i'm repeating myself a bit here, but you can go on and on about how there are scenarios where wisdom's plan is better

and yes, it's true that wisdom's plan IS indeed better in those scenarios

but

it's not a risk i would take without being almost certain of particular reads and at this stage of the game i'm nowhere near that certain

the worst case if i was needlessly paranoid: 1 dead scum and plenty of information
the worst cases if my paranoia was founded: sling-shotted to lylo in a terrible position

[riku]

I ain't the scum, don't screw yourselves with switches. I want to be lynched.

Kokichi
Bu
Pine
Wis

One of these is scum. Switch me back into group 2, lynch group 2. Leave me in group 3, lynch group 3.

[BuJaber]

Okay muffin you're not convinced by my arguments and I'm not convinced by yours.

If you decide to switch don't do it without taking input.

Riku nobody can swap you back. Suggest realistic things please.

[Wisdom]

What should have happened is an unofficial vote for who muffin swaps and an unofficial vote for who wisdom swaps and we go with majority for both and if muffin/wisdom don't comply we treat them as confscum.

yeah that would maybe work in a playerlist that wasnt adamant about lynching me and kokichi

[zMuffinMan]

If you decide to switch don't do it without taking input.

i... am taking input

at the very least, i probably won't yolo swap wisdom

unless i feel like it

[Wisdom]

Your strategy sacrifices long-term town gain for the short term small victory.

Amen

Stop wanting to sacrifice a bunch of townies to get a single scum
Use your fucking head, get reads, and go for the biggest amount of scum you can get in one day

[Wisdom]

that wasnt to bu if that was unclear

[riku]

Okay muffin you're not convinced by my arguments and I'm not convinced by yours.

If you decide to switch don't do it without taking input.

Riku nobody can swap you back. Suggest realistic things please.

There were two options. If one isn't possible, take the other. Welcome to rational decision making 101!

On another note, Oh. I didn't know. Or trust.

[Wisdom]

Riku is mimicking pine which makes me hopeful theyre both scum
When youre town in a guilty group you want to lynch the actual scum, not yourself

[riku]

Riku is mimicking pine which makes me hopeful theyre both scum
When youre town in a guilty group you want to lynch the actual scum, not yourself

Honestly, when Ko said 'scum in group 2.' I wanted group 2 lynched. Herp derp cause I don't trust roleclaims. Why? Cause they prove nothing.

[BuJaber]

I was gonna talk to you about it post game further but you know what nobody cares after the game and I'm not interested in a long winded theoritical discussion in mafia where the principal is flawed anyway because no 2 games can ever be the same since players and roles and moods and mental states change.
Like I can't see how your idea is better for town than mine but you seem to know what's what so I have some general mafia questions inspired by our discussion.


I just need you to ignore what happened in the game. Ignore your alignment. Ignore my alignment. I need a genuine answer for my personal knowledge of mafia.

If we shouldn't make decisions based on the likelihood of things being true, in other words if all scenarios are equally likely, why do people not use randomness more?
Are the site rules the only thing preventing people from playing mafia optimally?
Or do people just not understand probabilities?
Like if randomness was allowed would town win rates increase?

I enjoy playing regardless of game outcome but I wouldn't want to play somewhere where my win ratio is inherently rigged

More specifically to partition mafia setup is there an actual difference between 4 town 0 scum dead and 4 town 1 scum dead if the first scenario gives us confirmed scum? Wouldn't they be equal in terms of town to scum ratio but scenario 1 would give towm something to act upon given that they know the alignment of one member of the day 2 groups?

[Wisdom]

Im talking about now. It makes no sense from your pov to want to lynch g3 or to be moved back to g2.

Just like it makes no sense for Pine to want to be moved to g3.

@riku

[BuJaber]

Yes riku we would be happy if muffin swapped with pine and we lynched G3.

[BuJaber]

Big post is @muffin obviously.

[riku]

Im talking about now. It makes no sense from your pov to want to lynch g3 or to be moved back to g2.

Just like it makes no sense for Pine to want to be moved to g3.

@riku

But why would I care? I'm most likely getting lynched, and I believe there is scum in both groups. Switching does nothing.