Secret Hitler (Game Over)

For completed/abandoned Mish Mash Games.
Locked
User avatar
Mitillos
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2300
Joined: August 23, 2012
Pronoun: He
Contact:

Post Post #11 (isolation #0) » Sun Apr 29, 2018 6:01 am

Post by Mitillos »

/in
You don't have ambiguity; you have
options
.
User avatar
Mitillos
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2300
Joined: August 23, 2012
Pronoun: He
Contact:

Post Post #109 (isolation #1) » Tue May 01, 2018 7:20 am

Post by Mitillos »

Hello everyone.

Liking Harambey, saske, and Nsg, so far. BuJ gives me pause, but I think it's just paranoia because of what Nsg said in .

is fluff, is a scum flail. Good catch by saske and Harambey there. A prod dodge 8 hours after your "I'm here" post? That won't fly. Nico is in the fascist pile.

RC was weird, and he pinged as town and scum with all his weird posts. I have no clear read there, but hopefully inspi will be less of a mess. Confirming inspi's ~25% calculation, btw.

mallow isn't saying much of interest, like last time. His voting pattern should tell us his alignment very quickly, like last time.

N_M is lurking too, what with his empty post.

Not sure how to read Vij at the moment.

I would vote "ja" for everyone except Nico, at the moment, to get info on them.
You don't have ambiguity; you have
options
.
User avatar
Mitillos
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2300
Joined: August 23, 2012
Pronoun: He
Contact:

Post Post #114 (isolation #2) » Tue May 01, 2018 8:02 am

Post by Mitillos »

@Saske: Your reason for scumreading Vij is that he said to keep RC out of power based on a joke from RC. The thing is, I read Vij's thing there as a joke too, given that he invokes "our sanity" for this.
You don't have ambiguity; you have
options
.
User avatar
Mitillos
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2300
Joined: August 23, 2012
Pronoun: He
Contact:

Post Post #120 (isolation #3) » Tue May 01, 2018 2:51 pm

Post by Mitillos »

@Saske: Looking back, I don't like your reasons for some of your reads:

mallow town read: This makes no sense to me. He said he has a policy of voting nein on the first suggestion, just like last time. What precisely makes you think that he is different this time? Is it because he's asking others to try to convince him he is wrong? Because that's just a slightly more aggressive version of the same thing, and therefore null.
rc town read: You read him as town because vij attacked him and because he made one post that you agree with? This is null at best.
vij scum read: Already mentioned before. Your recent reply to this is not satisfactory at all, either. What do you mean that something didn't mesh with what happened to you?

I would like you to explain these reads more clearly and precisely.

Also, post is weird if not actually suspicious. Care to explain why you felt the need to make that clarification?

@mallow: What would you do if you were the one nominated first? Would you policy-nein, or selfish-ja?

@vij: You can be outraged and sarcastic all you like, but give reads.

@BuJ: I think you're putting too much stock to this perceived RC-Vij connection (as are others). Sorting one out tells us pretty much nothing about the other.
You don't have ambiguity; you have
options
.
User avatar
Mitillos
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2300
Joined: August 23, 2012
Pronoun: He
Contact:

Post Post #130 (isolation #4) » Tue May 01, 2018 7:19 pm

Post by Mitillos »

@Saske: But that's a meaningless discussion, unless he's trying to convince people to follow that policy.
I'm not trying to spin anything. You are giving half-reads with no explanations. Either be clearer with your reasons, or expect people to see your reads at the most basic level.
As for post 102, it looks weird. I'm not sure why the clarification is needed, since the assumption is that you are speaking as if you are town, whether you are town or not.
I like this response of yours more than the earlier stuff. As to why I went back to it, I had some free time, and felt like rereading the thread.

Still leaning null-townish on Saske.

@mallow: So, basically your position is that you will vote nein on anyone but yourself. Is that a fair analysis of the situation?

@vij: I am well aware that my face is ugly. How did inspi push anything (let alone an anti-town policy) using maths? Saske asked the probability for three fascist cards to come up, and inspi did the calculation. This is the weakest of weak accusations, and I'm starting to see Saske's point better.

Leaning scum on Vij, now. He can go on the fascist pile with Nico.
You don't have ambiguity; you have
options
.
User avatar
Mitillos
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2300
Joined: August 23, 2012
Pronoun: He
Contact:

Post Post #148 (isolation #5) » Fri May 11, 2018 10:55 am

Post by Mitillos »

In post 143, mallowgeno wrote:I agree, I don't find BuJaber antics to make him a commy yet
This looks a bit like a fascist slip.
Also, in case you missed the question earlier:
Mitillos wrote: @mallow: So, basically your position is that you will vote nein on anyone but yourself. Is that a fair analysis of the situation?
You don't have ambiguity; you have
options
.
User avatar
Mitillos
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2300
Joined: August 23, 2012
Pronoun: He
Contact:

Post Post #150 (isolation #6) » Sat May 12, 2018 1:17 am

Post by Mitillos »

@Mod: Could you PM everyone that the game is active again? Not everyone is going to check the thread, otherwise.


@mallow: You answered yes to the question preceding that one, as to what you would do if you were nominated. I was asking more specifically to clarify whether this was your actual position, because I don't much like it. Your claim was that you wanted to vote nein on others to get more information, per post . Then in post you said that you would ja yourself, because in your words "I clearly can trust myself".

There are two problems with this:
1) You are denying other players the information you claim you want to gain.
2) Your reason for voting ja on yourself (trust) has nothing to do with your reason to vote nein on everyone else (information). If you don't trust everyone else, then explain why, don't just policy vote nein on them. If you want to gain more voting info before the first policy, don't vote ja on yourself, try to get others to vote nein on you with you, to see who does.

Note sure why you're bringing up the fact that Reck can confirm your claim. It's not really relevant to my question, is it? For that matter, I'm not sure that it's relevant to anything.
You don't have ambiguity; you have
options
.
User avatar
Mitillos
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2300
Joined: August 23, 2012
Pronoun: He
Contact:

Post Post #165 (isolation #7) » Sat May 12, 2018 1:11 pm

Post by Mitillos »

@nsg: Where are you getting Saske townblocking me? Post 152 which you quoted is the only one where he indicates a (fascist) read on me, before that he didn't really make a read on me. Are you confusing me with mallow in that post?

@Saske: Any actual reasons for your reads, or are we going to have to repeat the discussion in posts 120-130?
You don't have ambiguity; you have
options
.
User avatar
Mitillos
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2300
Joined: August 23, 2012
Pronoun: He
Contact:

Post Post #196 (isolation #8) » Fri May 18, 2018 2:27 pm

Post by Mitillos »

I don't think I'd go so far as calling inspi fascist, but I am currently inclined to libread n_m.
You don't have ambiguity; you have
options
.
User avatar
Mitillos
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2300
Joined: August 23, 2012
Pronoun: He
Contact:

Post Post #201 (isolation #9) » Sat May 19, 2018 5:34 am

Post by Mitillos »

@Reck: Could you clarify what you mean, there?
You don't have ambiguity; you have
options
.
User avatar
Mitillos
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2300
Joined: August 23, 2012
Pronoun: He
Contact:

Post Post #216 (isolation #10) » Sat May 19, 2018 4:23 pm

Post by Mitillos »

@Mod: Can we get prods/replacements on Vij, nsg, and Nico? They haven't posted in over a week.
You don't have ambiguity; you have
options
.
User avatar
Mitillos
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2300
Joined: August 23, 2012
Pronoun: He
Contact:

Post Post #224 (isolation #11) » Sun May 20, 2018 5:55 pm

Post by Mitillos »

@nsg: Same way that one scumhunts in mafia. Look for posts that seem to indicate more knowledge about the game state. Look for lurking and an unwillingness to engage. Look for meaningless fluff posts. And, of course, look for contradictions. Also, when you're looking for suspicious posts, also look at the cases others have made, and see if you agree or disagree with them.

One example of scumhunting (that turned up nothing): In post 201, I asked reck about post 200. One way to read post 200 is that he would pick another member of government (something he couldn't do, but which seems to have been his intended meaning). Another way to read it was that he meant he'd investigate someone that hasn't gone yet. Of course, he wouldn't be able to investigate anyone, because he'd be chancellor in such a situation, but if this had been his meaning, it would also imply that he fully expected a fascist policy to go through. This was suspicious, hence the need for clarification.

Incidentally, is it true that N_M gave you two liberal policies? There seems to be little reason to doubt him, but I'd like to have everyone's claims written down for future reference.

@SS: You said that one should vote nein if they have any bad feelings. All you've given us on that front are a libread on BuJ and a claim that your slot is liberal because of the way they replaced out. How about something more to go on? Any other reads, thus far?

@mallow: Why did you not vote nein? You claimed that you prefer to vote nein, because that would create more information. Or did you already have all the info you needed for this election?
You don't have ambiguity; you have
options
.
User avatar
Mitillos
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2300
Joined: August 23, 2012
Pronoun: He
Contact:

Post Post #226 (isolation #12) » Sun May 20, 2018 9:29 pm

Post by Mitillos »

Yes, but only because I'd be the second choice. :Þ
You don't have ambiguity; you have
options
.
User avatar
Mitillos
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2300
Joined: August 23, 2012
Pronoun: He
Contact:

Post Post #228 (isolation #13) » Sun May 20, 2018 10:38 pm

Post by Mitillos »

In that case I would insist on reck out of the three you mentioned, because I definitely don't trust mallow (as I have indicated before).
You don't have ambiguity; you have
options
.
User avatar
Mitillos
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2300
Joined: August 23, 2012
Pronoun: He
Contact:

Post Post #231 (isolation #14) » Mon May 21, 2018 2:12 am

Post by Mitillos »

@mallow: Many happy returns.
Do you mean N_M/nsg? Also, since you didn't have info to go off of, why not do the thing you said you do for info, and vote nein? After all, you ended up not doing it for the first election.
You don't have ambiguity; you have
options
.
User avatar
Mitillos
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2300
Joined: August 23, 2012
Pronoun: He
Contact:

Post Post #233 (isolation #15) » Mon May 21, 2018 5:28 am

Post by Mitillos »

I am not twisting anything, but nice deflection there. My problem is less with your vote for election 1 (although I also have a problem with that, about which I already expressed my views much earlier), and more with your vote for election 2. It's not my fault that your actions do not match your stated reasons for them.
You don't have ambiguity; you have
options
.
User avatar
Mitillos
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2300
Joined: August 23, 2012
Pronoun: He
Contact:

Post Post #237 (isolation #16) » Mon May 21, 2018 6:40 am

Post by Mitillos »

@mallow: You are deflecting again. In post you said that you nein for information. There is no way that you gain information by voting nein on vote 1 and do not gain the same kind of information by voting nein on vote 2, especially since in post you said you didn't have a ton of info on n_m and nsg (both of whom had said very little by vote 2). If you really cared about the information you claim to glean from voting nein, it seems unlikely that you would not be trying to get it as often as possible, especially early on. So, even if you did not outright commit to nein on vote 2 (a complete irrelevance to the issue at hand), one would expect you to still do so, based on your own claims.
In short, there is no way to reconcile your words and your actions, along with a (presumed) wish to gain information.

@BuJ: An unfortunate state of affairs, yes.
You don't have ambiguity; you have
options
.
User avatar
Mitillos
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2300
Joined: August 23, 2012
Pronoun: He
Contact:

Post Post #256 (isolation #17) » Thu May 31, 2018 7:39 am

Post by Mitillos »

@S_S: I would say the same about you :P. I think I would also recommend going for a lurker, for the first investigation. They are virtually impossible to read, by definition, yet they continue to participate in the voting, so it's not likely they'll get replaced by more active players.
You don't have ambiguity; you have
options
.
User avatar
Mitillos
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2300
Joined: August 23, 2012
Pronoun: He
Contact:

Post Post #258 (isolation #18) » Thu May 31, 2018 8:58 am

Post by Mitillos »

Let's just say that both he and you gave me pause, at times. There could be nothing in it, of course, since I don't really know either of you.
You don't have ambiguity; you have
options
.
User avatar
Mitillos
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2300
Joined: August 23, 2012
Pronoun: He
Contact:

Post Post #274 (isolation #19) » Fri Jun 01, 2018 11:44 am

Post by Mitillos »

Isn't inspi's reaction almost identical to the one fascist-pablito had in the last game, in pretty much the same circumstances?

Anyway, @S_S: You may well be positioned between two fascists, so it's important to get reads on you immediately. You said you have other reads. Any of them that you want to share and explain?
You don't have ambiguity; you have
options
.
User avatar
Mitillos
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2300
Joined: August 23, 2012
Pronoun: He
Contact:

Post Post #278 (isolation #20) » Fri Jun 01, 2018 11:17 pm

Post by Mitillos »

@Vij: BuJ was president just now. Next is inspi.
You don't have ambiguity; you have
options
.
User avatar
Mitillos
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2300
Joined: August 23, 2012
Pronoun: He
Contact:

Post Post #280 (isolation #21) » Sat Jun 02, 2018 1:17 am

Post by Mitillos »

Nah. As long as there are four trustworthy liberals left, without a three-player sequence between any consecutive pair, we're fine. So, even if there are two investigations that reveal a fascist/liberal pair, we're still alright by keeping both players out of government, as long as we can identify the remaining liberals correctly (which is something we should be working on in any case).
You don't have ambiguity; you have
options
.
User avatar
Mitillos
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2300
Joined: August 23, 2012
Pronoun: He
Contact:

Post Post #290 (isolation #22) » Fri Jun 08, 2018 12:33 pm

Post by Mitillos »

@Mod: Isn't S_S unable to nominate anyone who was in the previous actual government? As in, the previous government that got voted in and passed a policy (in this case BuJ and inspi).


@mallow: Do you disbelieve BuJ? If so, why? If not, why did you vote yes?
You don't have ambiguity; you have
options
.
User avatar
Mitillos
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2300
Joined: August 23, 2012
Pronoun: He
Contact:

Post Post #291 (isolation #23) » Fri Jun 08, 2018 12:34 pm

Post by Mitillos »

EBWOP: I meant Reck instead of inspi, in my question to the mod.
You don't have ambiguity; you have
options
.
User avatar
Mitillos
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2300
Joined: August 23, 2012
Pronoun: He
Contact:

Post Post #297 (isolation #24) » Sun Jun 10, 2018 11:49 am

Post by Mitillos »

@mallow: BuJ said he got a guilty on inspi. You voted yes for a government with inspi as president. According to previous governments, three of the liberal policies have been seen. This means that there are three liberal cards and five fascist cards left. If inspi is a fascist and he gets 1l2f (not particularly unlikely, given the distribution), then not only does he get to force a fascist policy and claim he happened to get 3 fascist cards, he also gets to use the second investigation, most likely tying a second liberal to himself in the future.
So, to reiterate: Do you disbelieve BuJ? If so, why? If not, why did you vote yes?
You don't have ambiguity; you have
options
.
User avatar
Mitillos
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2300
Joined: August 23, 2012
Pronoun: He
Contact:

Post Post #299 (isolation #25) » Sun Jun 10, 2018 2:51 pm

Post by Mitillos »

The president gets three cards. He discards one card and gives the other two to the chancellor. The chancellor discards one card, and the one he didn't discard gets passed as policy. Nobody ever sees the discarded cards, after they are discarded.
You don't have ambiguity; you have
options
.
User avatar
Mitillos
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2300
Joined: August 23, 2012
Pronoun: He
Contact:

Post Post #310 (isolation #26) » Sat Jun 16, 2018 2:16 am

Post by Mitillos »

@S_S: I think Reck and N_M are lib-reads for pretty much everyone. This means that we will be nominating them a lot as chancellors. As such, I would recommend checking one of them, in case they happen to be Hitler playing the long game (like Yoshi did last time). If we get another fascist policy (fairly likely, once the shuffle happens), and then Hitler becomes chancellor, we lose.
You don't have ambiguity; you have
options
.
User avatar
Mitillos
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2300
Joined: August 23, 2012
Pronoun: He
Contact:

Post Post #312 (isolation #27) » Sat Jun 16, 2018 10:50 am

Post by Mitillos »

@Reck: Is my reasoning flawed? Isn't it a good idea to make extra certain of the alignment of the players who are likely going to be in government all the time from now on?
You don't have ambiguity; you have
options
.
User avatar
Mitillos
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2300
Joined: August 23, 2012
Pronoun: He
Contact:

Post Post #314 (isolation #28) » Sat Jun 16, 2018 11:30 am

Post by Mitillos »

We can't be certain and that's what worries me. And if we flip what you said, we can also deduce a few fascists from what's happened so far.
In any case, I have given my view and I will leave it at that.
You don't have ambiguity; you have
options
.
User avatar
Mitillos
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2300
Joined: August 23, 2012
Pronoun: He
Contact:

Post Post #324 (isolation #29) » Wed Jun 20, 2018 7:09 pm

Post by Mitillos »

@nsg: Yes. Format is President (discard claim), Chancellor (discard claim), policy passed.

1: Reck (F), mallow (F), L
2: N_M (F), nsg (L), L
3: BuJ (F), Reck (F), F
4: S_S (F), N_M (F), F

Incidentally, that's 9 of the 11 fascist policies. If nobody lied, the next government will get a liberal card.
You don't have ambiguity; you have
options
.
User avatar
Mitillos
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2300
Joined: August 23, 2012
Pronoun: He
Contact:

Post Post #331 (isolation #30) » Thu Jun 21, 2018 2:30 am

Post by Mitillos »

Well, I know which one I disbelieve. S_S is a fascist. I have to reevaluate mallow, vij, and Nico now.
You don't have ambiguity; you have
options
.
User avatar
Mitillos
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2300
Joined: August 23, 2012
Pronoun: He
Contact:

Post Post #337 (isolation #31) » Thu Jun 21, 2018 4:42 am

Post by Mitillos »

My votes from now on will go to Reck, N_M, nsg, and myself. If I'm forced to, I will also consider BuJ. I can't see any lib-players in the rest, so every government involving any of them gets a nein from me. With any luck, we won't get to BuJ-inspi-S_S-mallow presidencies a second time, which would be annoying.
You don't have ambiguity; you have
options
.
User avatar
Mitillos
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2300
Joined: August 23, 2012
Pronoun: He
Contact:

Post Post #389 (isolation #32) » Wed Jul 04, 2018 5:59 pm

Post by Mitillos »

The rules reminder corner (a.k.a. I don't have much of substance to add to the proceedings, at the moment):

1) BuJ can nominate anyone (
including e.g. Reck, the previous chancellor
) as chancellor for this coming government. Personally, I'm confident enough in inspi-fasc at this point, that I will only vote nein if the chancellor is picked from {S_S, mallow, inspi, Vij, nico}.

2) If we nein the next three governments in a row, we will get an automatic policy passed. Assuming there have been two discard lies, one of the two remaining cards is F and the other L. If F passes, the opportunity to use one of the two kill powers will be lost. Also, if there were three discard lies, then both the remaining cards are F.

3) The next government will also come with a deck reshuffle. Assuming we don't nein three times (or more), then the deck will have 8F 4L. The probability of 3F at that point will be just over 25%.
You don't have ambiguity; you have
options
.
User avatar
Mitillos
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2300
Joined: August 23, 2012
Pronoun: He
Contact:

Post Post #391 (isolation #33) » Wed Jul 04, 2018 7:53 pm

Post by Mitillos »

I'm going by post . If that is incorrect, then disregard what I said.
You don't have ambiguity; you have
options
.
User avatar
Mitillos
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2300
Joined: August 23, 2012
Pronoun: He
Contact:

Post Post #408 (isolation #34) » Thu Jul 05, 2018 9:17 pm

Post by Mitillos »

Damn it Reck, stop fuelling my paranoia. You are as town as possible, and constantly a chancellor. This is why I wanted an investigation on you; for ease of mind on that front.
You don't have ambiguity; you have
options
.
User avatar
Mitillos
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2300
Joined: August 23, 2012
Pronoun: He
Contact:

Post Post #413 (isolation #35) » Fri Jul 06, 2018 6:21 am

Post by Mitillos »

In post 389, Mitillos wrote:Personally, I'm confident enough in inspi-fasc at this point, that I will only vote nein if the chancellor is picked from {S_S, mallow, inspi, Vij, nico}.
You don't have ambiguity; you have
options
.
User avatar
Mitillos
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2300
Joined: August 23, 2012
Pronoun: He
Contact:

Post Post #423 (isolation #36) » Mon Jul 09, 2018 9:50 am

Post by Mitillos »

I think that she cannot pick mallow nor reck, since the BuJ/N_M government didn't pass.

@Mod: Is this the case?
You don't have ambiguity; you have
options
.
User avatar
Mitillos
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2300
Joined: August 23, 2012
Pronoun: He
Contact:

Post Post #435 (isolation #37) » Tue Jul 10, 2018 2:02 am

Post by Mitillos »

@BuJ: I think N_M and nsg are lib (plus one of Vij and Nico) and simply voted nein because of your investigation result on inspi. It's not a completely unreasonable position, even if it potentially moves us away from victory. Also, there's another reason for you to thoroughly revise your nein list. You left mallow out.
You don't have ambiguity; you have
options
.
User avatar
Mitillos
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2300
Joined: August 23, 2012
Pronoun: He
Contact:

Post Post #439 (isolation #38) » Tue Jul 10, 2018 3:23 am

Post by Mitillos »

@BuJ: Naturally I can understand your point of view, because I'm pretty much in the same position. S_S is confirmed scum for me. Unfortunately, I know that other players generally have a hard time reading me (my posting style has been used as scum "evidence" against me in the past, for example, and has even been described as "too robotic"), so I am pretty much predisposed to accept that other players will not be certain which of me and S_S is liberal and which is fascist, as a matter of course.

You should also note that nsg and N_M have made 15 and 18 posts each. Their interactions with both you and inspi are minimal. Furthermore, since your investigation on him, inspi has slowly reduced his contributions. In fact, the biggest posts he's made since then were largely aimed at you (the one person he has ostensibly no reason to try to communicate with, if he is liberal). In other words, he avoids contact with others, so that they can be uncertain about him, and by extension you.
You don't have ambiguity; you have
options
.
User avatar
Mitillos
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2300
Joined: August 23, 2012
Pronoun: He
Contact:

Post Post #444 (isolation #39) » Tue Jul 10, 2018 8:43 am

Post by Mitillos »

Bzzt, incorrect:

1) Being a president who passed a fascist policy does not mean you are untrustworthy; the governments don't exist in isolation, they are part of the rest of the game.

2) I agree that if someone is investigated as fascist there should be a question mark over them and their investigator. But this ends the moment that one has a read on at least one of the pair. I have a libread on BuJ, as well as a fasc-read on inspi, because of the things they've said and done since the investigation. If you have better people to vote for, sure, avoid both people involved in an investigation, but if you don't, then a call has to be made. Which brings us to:

3) Vijarada and Nico Robin have done suspicious things before. They have also largely or completely stayed out of the conversation since. This is anti-liberal behaviour at best. However, I'm glad to see that you are trying to indirectly and subtly defend them by conveniently leaving them out of your list despite this, because it confirms my suspicions about them (well, most likely one of them at any rate, but I'd rather err on the side of caution and avoid sending a fascist on any government, something that your exclusion list patently does not do, given that it is excluding no more than 3 of the 4 fascists).

Oh, and as a side point, a neutral point of view is not actually a thing, especially here, given that we are all voting on these governments. I also recognise that trust is not something that should be afforded to me automatically, but I won't pretend that this means that I can now just sit out of everything as an outsider, and not try to give my reads (actual reads mind you, not mechanical processes for creating a list without examining any further implications of said list), or otherwise participate. I back what I say with actual arguments, which others can examine and determine whether they agree or not. Thus "trust" is irrelevant, and all that matters to me is that people examine and evaluate my arguments on their own merits. And if they disagree with me, I ask them for reasons (as I did e.g. when Reck said that he should not be investigated), not because of any notion that I should be trusted, but because I also want to evaluate the arguments of others, to see if I agree or not.
You don't have ambiguity; you have
options
.
User avatar
Mitillos
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2300
Joined: August 23, 2012
Pronoun: He
Contact:

Post Post #452 (isolation #40) » Thu Jul 19, 2018 6:51 am

Post by Mitillos »

Both the above posts.
You don't have ambiguity; you have
options
.
User avatar
Mitillos
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2300
Joined: August 23, 2012
Pronoun: He
Contact:

Post Post #467 (isolation #41) » Sun Jul 29, 2018 3:21 am

Post by Mitillos »

Technically we don't yet know that Reck is not Hitler for a fact, because when he was chancellor last, there had only been 2 fascist policies. However, if we reject 10^12*e's government (which I intend to nein, obviously), I'll nominate Reck.

Also, welcome 10^12*e, I think that either you or Nico Robin is the last fascist, and probably Hitler.
You don't have ambiguity; you have
options
.
User avatar
Mitillos
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2300
Joined: August 23, 2012
Pronoun: He
Contact:

Post Post #470 (isolation #42) » Sun Jul 29, 2018 8:31 am

Post by Mitillos »

@2.718: You can get the whole thing by reading through the game, which presumably you are probably doing anyway, so I'll just give you the short version: I was already suspicious of both of you, due to past things you (in your case Vij) said and did, but then S_S (whom I know to be fascist) left both of you out of his list of players to avoid electing, despite said suspicious things and the fact that his list (which, incidentally, he didn't keep to, in the most recent election), was too short from everyone's point of view. As such, it seems to me that S_S was trying to keep the possibility of one of you being eventually elected chancellor.
You don't have ambiguity; you have
options
.
User avatar
Mitillos
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2300
Joined: August 23, 2012
Pronoun: He
Contact:

Post Post #478 (isolation #43) » Mon Jul 30, 2018 8:39 am

Post by Mitillos »

Actually, since I have fascist reads on both 2.718 and Nico Robin and they come before and after me respectively, I am strongly in support of my presidency. If I were not, I would be in favour of three neins in a row, which would cause a random policy to be passed. If we believe nsg, there are 6 fascist and 3 liberal cards in the deck, at the moment. So, at best, the probability of a random fascist policy being passed is 2/3. If this happened, it would both further the fascist wincon and eliminate one of our only two execution powers. And even if we got a random liberal policy, that could still turn out to be bad, if the remaining liberal policies happened to be at the end. In that case, the next two policies would be fascist, no matter what we did.

@2.718: To answer your questions: As far as I can tell, the fascist team is S_S, one of {BuJ, inspi} (probably inspi), and two of {mallow, you, Nico Robin} (with mallow being by far more likely than the other two). So, from my POV either you or Nico is likely the last fascist, and since I've got enough other people to vote for at the moment, I'd rather not take the risk on either of you, so there is nobody you can nominate that would make me vote ja for you. As for why I have a fascist read on Vij/you, it was mainly the following posts:
- (False claim about inspi pushing an anti-town policy using maths, when all inspi had done was state the probability of 3 fascist cards turning up on the first draw, which is null. Sure, inspi is probably fascist after all, but fake reasons are fake reasons.)
- (Contradictory positions that i) reads are useless, but ii) we should somehow have someone who looks like they're in the middle and ja them.)
- (Attacking Reck for being chancellor in two governments that passed a fascist policy, but having absolutely nothing to say about the presidents who were with Reck, even though they'd have to be implicated as well, had Reck lied.)

Regarding executions, as I mentioned before, I believe that Hitler is either you or Nico, given what S_S has said. As such, I would say that those are the best execution targets. I doubt S_S is Hitler, given his investigation on me and subsequent claim, so I don't think an execution should be wasted on him. Beyond that, if I were given an execution I would look at what the rest of the players think, as well as what reasons they have, before pulling the trigger. I'd be open to being convinced to shoot someone other than the two of you, but only through clear and valid arguments, explaining why someone else is more likely to be Hitler.
You don't have ambiguity; you have
options
.
User avatar
Mitillos
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2300
Joined: August 23, 2012
Pronoun: He
Contact:

Post Post #497 (isolation #44) » Wed Aug 01, 2018 3:05 am

Post by Mitillos »

@Reck: Do you mean why 2.718 is taking a combined perspective with S_S, or why e.g. I think that S_S's actions indicate that 2.718 is potentially Hitler? I can only answer the latter, if that's what you want.

@2.718: You aren't supposed to trust my fascist list. You are supposed to evaluate it, based on reading the game. For instance, I know that S_S is fascist whereas you don't, but can deduce it from his words and actions (e.g. claiming an exclusion list then voting nein for a government of two people not on said list, despite having said nothing about mistrusting either of them).

Edit: Oh. Good, good, carry on.
You don't have ambiguity; you have
options
.
User avatar
Mitillos
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2300
Joined: August 23, 2012
Pronoun: He
Contact:

Post Post #504 (isolation #45) » Thu Aug 02, 2018 3:22 am

Post by Mitillos »

@Reck: Is this because you don't want me to be president, or because you want someone else to be chancellor with me? In both cases, why?
You don't have ambiguity; you have
options
.
User avatar
Mitillos
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2300
Joined: August 23, 2012
Pronoun: He
Contact:

Post Post #506 (isolation #46) » Thu Aug 02, 2018 7:46 am

Post by Mitillos »

Well, that came out of nowhere, particularly since it contradicts your post 466, but alright.
You don't have ambiguity; you have
options
.
User avatar
Mitillos
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2300
Joined: August 23, 2012
Pronoun: He
Contact:

Post Post #509 (isolation #47) » Thu Aug 02, 2018 10:00 am

Post by Mitillos »

Well, if I'm not mistaken, that's a ~77.4% chance in a 6F3L deck, so I think you should really examine why you think I'm fascist, as well as evaluate Vij/2.718 and NR as much as you can.

p-edit: Ninja'd whilst doing calculations.
You don't have ambiguity; you have
options
.
User avatar
Mitillos
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2300
Joined: August 23, 2012
Pronoun: He
Contact:

Post Post #511 (isolation #48) » Thu Aug 02, 2018 2:50 pm

Post by Mitillos »

I recommend looking at both our ISOs. I believe S_S makes it quite clear that he is a fascist.
You don't have ambiguity; you have
options
.
User avatar
Mitillos
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2300
Joined: August 23, 2012
Pronoun: He
Contact:

Post Post #513 (isolation #49) » Thu Aug 02, 2018 3:26 pm

Post by Mitillos »

Not exactly a prerequisite here, and therefore irrelevant.
You don't have ambiguity; you have
options
.
User avatar
Mitillos
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2300
Joined: August 23, 2012
Pronoun: He
Contact:

Post Post #515 (isolation #50) » Thu Aug 02, 2018 4:00 pm

Post by Mitillos »

Perhaps, but the thing is, I have already given explanations based on your words and actions. Even if I am falling victim to confirmation bias, others can evaluate said explanations for themselves, and either agree or correct me.
Incidentally, thank you for confirming to everyone that you are a fascist, by accusing me of confirmation bias. There would be no way for me to have confirmation bias for you being a fascist if I you were liberal, since I would be a fascist and would therefore know your alignment.
You don't have ambiguity; you have
options
.
User avatar
Mitillos
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2300
Joined: August 23, 2012
Pronoun: He
Contact:

Post Post #516 (isolation #51) » Thu Aug 02, 2018 4:02 pm

Post by Mitillos »

EBWOP: if you were liberal.
You don't have ambiguity; you have
options
.
User avatar
Mitillos
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2300
Joined: August 23, 2012
Pronoun: He
Contact:

Post Post #530 (isolation #52) » Mon Aug 06, 2018 12:29 pm

Post by Mitillos »

We are not skipping three times, because we are not potentially burying two of the three available liberal cards out of our reach, and we are not giving up one of our two chances to execute Hitler. After a couple more governments, if we know that all the liberal cards are gone, we can consider the merits of skipping three times, particularly since by then we will be getting close to the (BuJ, inspi, S_S, mallow) region, where we will be forced to skip, anyway.
You don't have ambiguity; you have
options
.
User avatar
Mitillos
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2300
Joined: August 23, 2012
Pronoun: He
Contact:

Post Post #564 (isolation #53) » Sat Aug 11, 2018 8:33 am

Post by Mitillos »

I will be in transit (and therefore unavailable) for about a day starting now.
You don't have ambiguity; you have
options
.
User avatar
Mitillos
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2300
Joined: August 23, 2012
Pronoun: He
Contact:

Post Post #565 (isolation #54) » Sun Aug 12, 2018 8:14 am

Post by Mitillos »

Back.
You don't have ambiguity; you have
options
.
User avatar
Mitillos
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2300
Joined: August 23, 2012
Pronoun: He
Contact:

Post Post #576 (isolation #55) » Sun Aug 19, 2018 3:40 pm

Post by Mitillos »

I will allow everyone to give their thoughts and respond to each other's questions. I'd also like to hear Nico's response. On Thursday, I will nominate Reck, unless someone can convince me by then that there is a better strategy.
You don't have ambiguity; you have
options
.
User avatar
Mitillos
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2300
Joined: August 23, 2012
Pronoun: He
Contact:

Post Post #579 (isolation #56) » Sun Aug 19, 2018 4:54 pm

Post by Mitillos »

Conversation is good for town, and not a waste of time. If discussion dies down before Thursday (i.e. one full day without any new posts), I will make my nomination.
You don't have ambiguity; you have
options
.
User avatar
Mitillos
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2300
Joined: August 23, 2012
Pronoun: He
Contact:

Post Post #583 (isolation #57) » Mon Aug 20, 2018 10:00 am

Post by Mitillos »

Yet you nominated him? That's pretty anti-lib of you...
You don't have ambiguity; you have
options
.
User avatar
Mitillos
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2300
Joined: August 23, 2012
Pronoun: He
Contact:

Post Post #585 (isolation #58) » Mon Aug 20, 2018 11:24 am

Post by Mitillos »

The problem is that on one hand there is the baiting jas from fascists, and on the other is the automatic loss of the game should Hitler be elected, which would only take two liberal jas. If he really thought there was a decent chance you were Hitler, that would have been too big of a risk to take. If anything, I'm even more suspicious of 2.718 because of all this.

And don't worry; I'm a mathematician, I won't laugh. I might chuckle a bit, though.
You don't have ambiguity; you have
options
.
User avatar
Mitillos
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2300
Joined: August 23, 2012
Pronoun: He
Contact:

Post Post #590 (isolation #59) » Tue Aug 21, 2018 12:30 pm

Post by Mitillos »

@2.718: I'm not sure where you're getting that consensus idea. Reck at some point said he'd rather be in a government with you than with me; N_M, mallow, and NR have been quiet; S_S didn't have you in his exclusion list and said he'd vote ja if you took Reck or Nico; and inspi said he'd ja himself, S_S, or Reck (later he also said to skip three times, but that's another story). Really, the only two players who said they were categorically going to nein you throughout were BuJ and me. nsg just said she wanted to skip your presidency in a rather off-hand way, so we could possibly add her. Three out of ten is hardly a consensus.

Also, welcome, Klick. Sorry I forgot to say this before.
You don't have ambiguity; you have
options
.
User avatar
Mitillos
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2300
Joined: August 23, 2012
Pronoun: He
Contact:

Post Post #593 (isolation #60) » Thu Aug 23, 2018 12:34 am

Post by Mitillos »

Hey, Reck, stop spying on Deku sleeping and come give your thoughts.
You don't have ambiguity; you have
options
.
User avatar
Mitillos
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2300
Joined: August 23, 2012
Pronoun: He
Contact:

Post Post #594 (isolation #61) » Thu Aug 23, 2018 9:28 am

Post by Mitillos »

Well, I think it's time.

Nominate: Reck
You don't have ambiguity; you have
options
.
User avatar
Mitillos
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2300
Joined: August 23, 2012
Pronoun: He
Contact:

Post Post #597 (isolation #62) » Thu Aug 23, 2018 3:44 pm

Post by Mitillos »

You don't have ambiguity; you have
options
.
User avatar
Mitillos
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2300
Joined: August 23, 2012
Pronoun: He
Contact:

Post Post #607 (isolation #63) » Mon Aug 27, 2018 11:21 am

Post by Mitillos »

So, once again, Reck had no choice in the policy, and neither did I. 3F, which puts as at a deck with 3F3L (or 4F2L, if nsg lied).

@Reck: What is titled?

@BuJ: I believe that your plan involved Reck picking someone between the four people involved in investigations. This doesn't mean we skip three times, and get a random policy first. That would have been a waste of an execution, something desirable only to fascists (*cough* inspi *unconvincing cough*), since it reduces the likelihood of a liberal wincon. The plan can still happen, now that it doesn't take 3 neins in a row to carry out.

@2.718: Of course I'm not shooting N_M or Reck. They are not Hitler. Shot goes on Hitler.

As I mentioned before, I think that Hitler is one of 2.718 and NR. mallow has been too careless and blasé, inspi was pretty content to stay out of government if it meant keeping BuJ out of government, S_S was similar to inspi with the added bonus that he accused me for pretty much no good reason (since it might well mean he'd be constantly kept out of government), plus S_S indirectly protected 2.718 and NR (as I pointed out in the past).

My instinct is to go with NR. She has been completely gone, and is therefore unreadable. 2.718 has been making an effort recently, and even though I have had reservations, it's at least something (and I might just be a bit paranoid). Furthermore, NR is next, and I'd rather we simply go straight to Reck's presidency; executing NR would expedite this.

Obviously, I'm not going to make the decision like that. I would like to see some discussion, and in particular if there are any others which are more likely to be Hitler (and why).

Edit: @Reck: If I shoot you, you just flip "Hitler" or "not-Hitler". We don't see your actual alignment. And since you're 100% not Hitler, you're 100% not getting shot.

@S_S: Presumably you're saying I should have zero credibility because it is unreasonable for 6F3L to yield 3F. Even though the probability of this is about 23.08%. That's some really valid reasoning there. Anyway, I already said ages ago that I wouldn't be deciding the execution myself if I happened to get one (I believe this was when 2.718 joined the game and was discussing executions), and that I'd want to see discussion and reasons as to whom I should shoot. So, I'm not sure what points you're trying to score here, since I already covered all that. And no, I won't agree to be leashed, because e.g. I won't shoot you. Although it's not impossible you're Hitler, I don't think it likely; you seem a cleverer player than that, and I want to minimise the possibility of wasting a shot on a non-Hitler target.
You don't have ambiguity; you have
options
.
User avatar
Mitillos
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2300
Joined: August 23, 2012
Pronoun: He
Contact:

Post Post #611 (isolation #64) » Mon Aug 27, 2018 2:05 pm

Post by Mitillos »

@S_S: The probability of 3F from a 6F3L deck is 23.08%. The conditional probability of 3F, given that Reck got 2F (and assuming that you don't think he's lying) is around 30%. Neither of these numbers is 0, and both are in fact high enough that their occurrence is not abnormal. What you think multiplying 1/5 by whatever unnamed number you have in mind actually means, I have no idea (and I suspect that you don't, either). Also, I think you're confused about the word "objectively". Your opinion is automatically subjective, given that it is an opinion.

Anyway, yes, if Reck, and N_M, and Klick all simply told me "shoot S_S", I would ignore each and every one of them. On the other hand, if they explained why you are likely to be Hitler, I would look at their explanations, and see if I could find any flaws to argue over. If I could not, then I would agree to shoot you. The goal here is not to find the player that most people claim to think should be shot. The goal is to find the player most likely to be Hitler (which is different to "the player most people think is Hitler"). And without actual reasons and discussions, we are not finding that at all. I wouldn't trust anyone's opinion, if it came without an explanation. Thereby, I wouldn't trust anyone else's opinion (without explanations) over mine, because I already gave clear explanations for my position. Just because I believe that Reck, N_M, and Klick are lib, it doesn't mean that their gut reactions are correct. So, no, I don't want naked opinions. I want reasoning, I want arguments, and I want explanations. In fact, if I were a fascist, I would probably be cool with just going with the majority without any such discussion, because that can be easily manipulated, by simply ignoring those players I would falsely claim are fascists. Therefore, explanations, please.

@Reck: Why, or are you just trolling?
You don't have ambiguity; you have
options
.
User avatar
Mitillos
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2300
Joined: August 23, 2012
Pronoun: He
Contact:

Post Post #613 (isolation #65) » Mon Aug 27, 2018 2:35 pm

Post by Mitillos »

I'm going simply by the probabilities of drawing from the deck, given what we know, and under the assumption that nsg didn't lie (an assumption which actually minimises the probability of 3F). The probabilities can definitely be measured, and have nothing to do with our perceptions. I'm not interested in what previous claims were made before the deck reshuffle, because they are irrelevant to these probabilities. The probability that I drew 3F, given that Reck got 2F, is equal to the a priori probability that I got 3F divided by the a priori probability that I got 3F or 2F1L, from a 6F3L deck. All of these can be calculated, and no amount of bias would cause the numbers to magically change.
In any case, my point is that S_S is claiming I should have no credibility now, because an event occurred which is not particularly unlikely. His position is a silly one and the probabilities are one way to show this.
You don't have ambiguity; you have
options
.
User avatar
Mitillos
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2300
Joined: August 23, 2012
Pronoun: He
Contact:

Post Post #616 (isolation #66) » Mon Aug 27, 2018 3:34 pm

Post by Mitillos »

Except I'm not talking about the probability of me being fascist, but about the probability of me drawing 3F. You are claiming that others should think I am fascist based on passing a fascist policy, despite the fact that, from a third party's perspective, there is a reasonably high probability that I simply got 3F, and therefore had no choice but to pass a fascist policy. Also, I should point out here that you were president in a government that passed a fascist policy when the deck was claimed to have been 5F3L, which gave you a lower chance to get 3F than I had. So, really, to the extent that you might be considered to have any sort of point there (and you don't), it would mean that you are even less trustworthy to a third party than me (so I guess you're lucky that you actually don't have a point, then).

And no, your opinion on how an observer "should" see the game is still completely subjective, unless and until you can come up with explicit and objective explanations as to *why* they should see the game that way. All you said was that me getting 3F was "A SHOCKER", which is just an appeal to sarcasm, without any substance or validity.
You don't have ambiguity; you have
options
.
User avatar
Mitillos
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2300
Joined: August 23, 2012
Pronoun: He
Contact:

Post Post #624 (isolation #67) » Tue Aug 28, 2018 6:37 am

Post by Mitillos »

In post 618, BuJaber wrote:Secondly Mitilos you are severely underestimating how much each vote matters. Yes we can shoot NR or 2.7 and if we hit hitler we win, but if we shoot a liberal we lose a vote which is huge right now.
And this is why discussion is good. You are correct: I was completely ignoring the potential effect on votes, and I should reconsider this.
You don't have ambiguity; you have
options
.
User avatar
Mitillos
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2300
Joined: August 23, 2012
Pronoun: He
Contact:

Post Post #633 (isolation #68) » Thu Aug 30, 2018 2:32 am

Post by Mitillos »

Well, I still think that the best choice is NR. BuJ suggested shooting inspi, but I think he is less likely to be Hitler than NR is, given his behaviour. And since I also think she is likely to be fascist, even if she turns out to not be Hitler, I'm inclined to go with NR over inspi on this one.

However, I will wait until Saturday, in case anyone else wants to voice their opinion.
You don't have ambiguity; you have
options
.
User avatar
Mitillos
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2300
Joined: August 23, 2012
Pronoun: He
Contact:

Post Post #636 (isolation #69) » Thu Aug 30, 2018 4:05 am

Post by Mitillos »

@mallow: I've repeatedly said that S_S is almost certainly not Hitler (since he accused me, thus making it harder for himself to be elected) and that I'd rather try to shoot Hitler. If you're confused, then you haven't been reading my posts too carefully.
You don't have ambiguity; you have
options
.
User avatar
Mitillos
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2300
Joined: August 23, 2012
Pronoun: He
Contact:

Post Post #639 (isolation #70) » Thu Aug 30, 2018 5:39 am

Post by Mitillos »

Absent other information, yes, he would have a higher than random chance. But he advocated against either of us being in any government, and tried to indirectly protect others from being excluded, which changes the calculus.
The thing is that I consider the gain in shooting S_S lower than the expected gains from shooting NR.
You don't have ambiguity; you have
options
.
User avatar
Mitillos
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2300
Joined: August 23, 2012
Pronoun: He
Contact:

Post Post #640 (isolation #71) » Sat Sep 01, 2018 7:36 am

Post by Mitillos »

OK, so I've been rereading, and I've come around to what you guys have been saying. It's probably better to get rid of a guaranteed fascist, to reduce the number of their votes, just in case NR happens to be a liberal, after all. Worst case, if Reck or N_M end up getting a fascist policy, they can shoot NR instead, since they will have more information.
I will give everyone a few more hours, if they want to chime in, and then I'll shoot S_S.
You don't have ambiguity; you have
options
.
User avatar
Mitillos
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2300
Joined: August 23, 2012
Pronoun: He
Contact:

Post Post #644 (isolation #72) » Sat Sep 01, 2018 12:15 pm

Post by Mitillos »

@2.718: If I were forced to put numbers on it, I'd say that there's about a 50% chance of her being Hitler. You'd be second most likely with something like a 33% chance, and then mallow, nsg, inspi, S_S, and Buj with significantly smaller chances, in decreasing order. If NR is not Hitler, she could still be a vanilla fascist, but the probability of that is very small, as it is less likely that both you and she are fascists. If I shoot S_S, then we'd still be relying on a bit of luck, in terms of the cards falling the right way. The next two presidents are not going to be an issue, so it's mostly a matter of avoiding fascist chancellors and getting a liberal card on each of them. Neither option is great, but I don't think one is significantly better than the other, after all. Also, I'm not sure why you wouldn't want me voting. I'm part of this game too...

Anyway, fine, I can wait to see if people will at least agree to voice their opinion through a vote, rather than just give pointless and incorrect rhetoric.
You don't have ambiguity; you have
options
.
User avatar
Mitillos
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2300
Joined: August 23, 2012
Pronoun: He
Contact:

Post Post #646 (isolation #73) » Sat Sep 01, 2018 7:19 pm

Post by Mitillos »

The thing is, from my POV, shooting S_S certainly turns the game into 6-3, but is unlikely to end it. Shooting Nico has a chance to end the game, and otherwise probably turns the game into 5-4, with a small chance of 6-3. I'm just having a lot of difficulty deciding which course of action gives us the best chances of winning.
You don't have ambiguity; you have
options
.
User avatar
Mitillos
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2300
Joined: August 23, 2012
Pronoun: He
Contact:

Post Post #647 (isolation #74) » Sun Sep 02, 2018 2:25 pm

Post by Mitillos »

OK, I've gone back and forth enough on this. I don't know if this is the correct choice, but I believe it is. I don't think we have to worry about the votes not falling the right way at this late stage. I think that there is a good enough chance that this will end the game now, that I'm willing to risk it. I hope I am correct; if I am not, all I can do now is apologise in advance.

Execute: Nico Robin
You don't have ambiguity; you have
options
.
User avatar
Mitillos
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2300
Joined: August 23, 2012
Pronoun: He
Contact:

Post Post #670 (isolation #75) » Tue Sep 11, 2018 8:21 am

Post by Mitillos »

Only you and Reck.
Also, just as a reminder, according to the claims the deck is now 1L2F.
You don't have ambiguity; you have
options
.
User avatar
Mitillos
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2300
Joined: August 23, 2012
Pronoun: He
Contact:

Post Post #676 (isolation #76) » Wed Sep 12, 2018 3:29 am

Post by Mitillos »

@Reck: Passing three times makes a random policy pass. If someone lied the deck is currently 3F. In that case, passing 6 times would be an autoloss.
If anything, assuming 3F, we would need the next execution because the inspi-S_S-mallow sequence is coming up, and it'd be a good idea to execute one of them, so we aren't forced to either let them have the last government or pass three times and hope for the best.
You don't have ambiguity; you have
options
.
User avatar
Mitillos
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2300
Joined: August 23, 2012
Pronoun: He
Contact:

Post Post #700 (isolation #77) » Mon Sep 17, 2018 11:03 am

Post by Mitillos »

So, gg, and also sorry to everyone for all my bullshit. I absolutely loathe playing evil side, and I really didn't like that I made mallow (and anyone else) stop posting, even if it was good for my wincon. Same goes for shooting NicoRobin.

At the time, I was a bit salty at BuJ for claiming fasc on inspi, as I thought it was too risky a move, but thankfully it worked out well in the end.
I was also a bit salty at nsg/Klick for not burying that one L card and grabbing an execution, but again it worked out alright in the end so I can't complain.
Overall, I think my teammates did really well. The libs also played very well, except when they got fatigue from the long days, making small mistakes we could capitalise on, and getting some really unlucky draws. Other than deck RNG shenanigans, I think it could have gone either way towards the end.

Without minimising anyone else's contributions, let me make two specific mentions: Inspi's play after the investigation on him was often really subtle and effective. It really helped make BuJ more trustworthy, without making it obvious that this was the goal. I had to check several times to make sure that I remembered the roles correctly, for every single one of my teammates. Also, S_S is a formidable opponent. Almost every time he posted after he investigated me, I would look at the thread in dread, knowing that I would have to both play defense and aggressively go after him on flimsy pretexts, or be drawn and quartered. The only thing that backfired on him was the whole "S_S is almost certainly not Hitler" thing which both he and I pushed, which would also implicitly suggest "BuJ is almost certainly not Hitler"; this I believed was our only good chance for victory, as I didn't know how the cards would fall. I was also really flattered when S_S called me calculating.

And yeah, I believe the only ones who buried an L were BuJ on election 3 and I on election 7.
You don't have ambiguity; you have
options
.
User avatar
Mitillos
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2300
Joined: August 23, 2012
Pronoun: He
Contact:

Post Post #709 (isolation #78) » Tue Sep 18, 2018 10:07 am

Post by Mitillos »

Why is deck 2 not only 12 cards long? The policies that are passed stay out of the deck until the end of the game. It's lucky that the last 5 policies in the second deck are 2L3F, matching the policies passed exactly.
You don't have ambiguity; you have
options
.
User avatar
Mitillos
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Mitillos
He
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2300
Joined: August 23, 2012
Pronoun: He
Contact:

Post Post #717 (isolation #79) » Wed Sep 19, 2018 3:40 am

Post by Mitillos »

@BuJ: If someone investigated you or inspi, everyone else would have associatives on three players. If someone investigated anyone else, everyone else would have associatives on four players. In both cases this takes two investigations. As an example, suppose S_S investigated you, and claimed you were a fascist. All everyone else would know is that the two of you were likely on opposite sides. The prudent play for them would be to keep all three out of government. The problem with that is that in most cases it keeps either two fascists and one liberal, or two liberals and one fascist out of government. The second possibility is particularly bad. Add to this that anyone who investigates was in the first two governments to pass a fascist policy, and their trustworthiness won't be too high either.
On the other hand, if there are four players kept out, it's very likely that two are fascists and two are liberals, which is a much better proposition for liberals.
You don't have ambiguity; you have
options
.
Locked

Return to “Sens-O-Tape Archive”