Secret Hitler (Game Over)
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Hello everyone.
Liking Harambey, saske, and Nsg, so far. BuJ gives me pause, but I think it's just paranoia because of what Nsg said in 56.
89 is fluff, 92 is a scum flail. Good catch by saske and Harambey there. A prod dodge 8 hours after your "I'm here" post? That won't fly. Nico is in the fascist pile.
RC was weird, and he pinged as town and scum with all his weird posts. I have no clear read there, but hopefully inspi will be less of a mess. Confirming inspi's ~25% calculation, btw.
mallow isn't saying much of interest, like last time. His voting pattern should tell us his alignment very quickly, like last time.
N_M is lurking too, what with his empty post.
Not sure how to read Vij at the moment.
I would vote "ja" for everyone except Nico, at the moment, to get info on them.You don't have ambiguity; you haveoptions.- Mitillos
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@Saske: Looking back, I don't like your reasons for some of your reads:
mallow town read: This makes no sense to me. He said he has a policy of voting nein on the first suggestion, just like last time. What precisely makes you think that he is different this time? Is it because he's asking others to try to convince him he is wrong? Because that's just a slightly more aggressive version of the same thing, and therefore null.
rc town read: You read him as town because vij attacked him and because he made one post that you agree with? This is null at best.
vij scum read: Already mentioned before. Your recent reply to this is not satisfactory at all, either. What do you mean that something didn't mesh with what happened to you?
I would like you to explain these reads more clearly and precisely.
Also, post 102 is weird if not actually suspicious. Care to explain why you felt the need to make that clarification?
@mallow: What would you do if you were the one nominated first? Would you policy-nein, or selfish-ja?
@vij: You can be outraged and sarcastic all you like, but give reads.
@BuJ: I think you're putting too much stock to this perceived RC-Vij connection (as are others). Sorting one out tells us pretty much nothing about the other.You don't have ambiguity; you haveoptions.- Mitillos
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@Saske: But that's a meaningless discussion, unless he's trying to convince people to follow that policy.
I'm not trying to spin anything. You are giving half-reads with no explanations. Either be clearer with your reasons, or expect people to see your reads at the most basic level.
As for post 102, it looks weird. I'm not sure why the clarification is needed, since the assumption is that you are speaking as if you are town, whether you are town or not.
I like this response of yours more than the earlier stuff. As to why I went back to it, I had some free time, and felt like rereading the thread.
Still leaning null-townish on Saske.
@mallow: So, basically your position is that you will vote nein on anyone but yourself. Is that a fair analysis of the situation?
@vij: I am well aware that my face is ugly. How did inspi push anything (let alone an anti-town policy) using maths? Saske asked the probability for three fascist cards to come up, and inspi did the calculation. This is the weakest of weak accusations, and I'm starting to see Saske's point better.
Leaning scum on Vij, now. He can go on the fascist pile with Nico.You don't have ambiguity; you haveoptions.- Mitillos
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This looks a bit like a fascist slip.In post 143, mallowgeno wrote:I agree, I don't find BuJaber antics to make him a commy yet
Also, in case you missed the question earlier:
Mitillos wrote: @mallow: So, basically your position is that you will vote nein on anyone but yourself. Is that a fair analysis of the situation?You don't have ambiguity; you haveoptions.- Mitillos
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@Mod: Could you PM everyone that the game is active again? Not everyone is going to check the thread, otherwise.
@mallow: You answered yes to the question preceding that one, as to what you would do if you were nominated. I was asking more specifically to clarify whether this was your actual position, because I don't much like it. Your claim was that you wanted to vote nein on others to get more information, per post 113. Then in post 123 you said that you would ja yourself, because in your words "I clearly can trust myself".
There are two problems with this:
1) You are denying other players the information you claim you want to gain.
2) Your reason for voting ja on yourself (trust) has nothing to do with your reason to vote nein on everyone else (information). If you don't trust everyone else, then explain why, don't just policy vote nein on them. If you want to gain more voting info before the first policy, don't vote ja on yourself, try to get others to vote nein on you with you, to see who does.
Note sure why you're bringing up the fact that Reck can confirm your claim. It's not really relevant to my question, is it? For that matter, I'm not sure that it's relevant to anything.You don't have ambiguity; you haveoptions.- Mitillos
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@nsg: Where are you getting Saske townblocking me? Post 152 which you quoted is the only one where he indicates a (fascist) read on me, before that he didn't really make a read on me. Are you confusing me with mallow in that post?
@Saske: Any actual reasons for your reads, or are we going to have to repeat the discussion in posts 120-130?You don't have ambiguity; you haveoptions.- Mitillos
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@nsg: Same way that one scumhunts in mafia. Look for posts that seem to indicate more knowledge about the game state. Look for lurking and an unwillingness to engage. Look for meaningless fluff posts. And, of course, look for contradictions. Also, when you're looking for suspicious posts, also look at the cases others have made, and see if you agree or disagree with them.
One example of scumhunting (that turned up nothing): In post 201, I asked reck about post 200. One way to read post 200 is that he would pick another member of government (something he couldn't do, but which seems to have been his intended meaning). Another way to read it was that he meant he'd investigate someone that hasn't gone yet. Of course, he wouldn't be able to investigate anyone, because he'd be chancellor in such a situation, but if this had been his meaning, it would also imply that he fully expected a fascist policy to go through. This was suspicious, hence the need for clarification.
Incidentally, is it true that N_M gave you two liberal policies? There seems to be little reason to doubt him, but I'd like to have everyone's claims written down for future reference.
@SS: You said that one should vote nein if they have any bad feelings. All you've given us on that front are a libread on BuJ and a claim that your slot is liberal because of the way they replaced out. How about something more to go on? Any other reads, thus far?
@mallow: Why did you not vote nein? You claimed that you prefer to vote nein, because that would create more information. Or did you already have all the info you needed for this election?You don't have ambiguity; you haveoptions.- Mitillos
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I am not twisting anything, but nice deflection there. My problem is less with your vote for election 1 (although I also have a problem with that, about which I already expressed my views much earlier), and more with your vote for election 2. It's not my fault that your actions do not match your stated reasons for them.You don't have ambiguity; you haveoptions.- Mitillos
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@mallow: You are deflecting again. In post 113 you said that you nein for information. There is no way that you gain information by voting nein on vote 1 and do not gain the same kind of information by voting nein on vote 2, especially since in post 230 you said you didn't have a ton of info on n_m and nsg (both of whom had said very little by vote 2). If you really cared about the information you claim to glean from voting nein, it seems unlikely that you would not be trying to get it as often as possible, especially early on. So, even if you did not outright commit to nein on vote 2 (a complete irrelevance to the issue at hand), one would expect you to still do so, based on your own claims.
In short, there is no way to reconcile your words and your actions, along with a (presumed) wish to gain information.
@BuJ: An unfortunate state of affairs, yes.You don't have ambiguity; you haveoptions.- Mitillos
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@S_S: I would say the same about you . I think I would also recommend going for a lurker, for the first investigation. They are virtually impossible to read, by definition, yet they continue to participate in the voting, so it's not likely they'll get replaced by more active players.You don't have ambiguity; you haveoptions.- Mitillos
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Isn't inspi's reaction almost identical to the one fascist-pablito had in the last game, in pretty much the same circumstances?
Anyway, @S_S: You may well be positioned between two fascists, so it's important to get reads on you immediately. You said you have other reads. Any of them that you want to share and explain?You don't have ambiguity; you haveoptions.- Mitillos
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Nah. As long as there are four trustworthy liberals left, without a three-player sequence between any consecutive pair, we're fine. So, even if there are two investigations that reveal a fascist/liberal pair, we're still alright by keeping both players out of government, as long as we can identify the remaining liberals correctly (which is something we should be working on in any case).You don't have ambiguity; you haveoptions.- Mitillos
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@Mod: Isn't S_S unable to nominate anyone who was in the previous actual government? As in, the previous government that got voted in and passed a policy (in this case BuJ and inspi).
@mallow: Do you disbelieve BuJ? If so, why? If not, why did you vote yes?You don't have ambiguity; you haveoptions.- Mitillos
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@mallow: BuJ said he got a guilty on inspi. You voted yes for a government with inspi as president. According to previous governments, three of the liberal policies have been seen. This means that there are three liberal cards and five fascist cards left. If inspi is a fascist and he gets 1l2f (not particularly unlikely, given the distribution), then not only does he get to force a fascist policy and claim he happened to get 3 fascist cards, he also gets to use the second investigation, most likely tying a second liberal to himself in the future.
So, to reiterate: Do you disbelieve BuJ? If so, why? If not, why did you vote yes?You don't have ambiguity; you haveoptions.- Mitillos
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@S_S: I think Reck and N_M are lib-reads for pretty much everyone. This means that we will be nominating them a lot as chancellors. As such, I would recommend checking one of them, in case they happen to be Hitler playing the long game (like Yoshi did last time). If we get another fascist policy (fairly likely, once the shuffle happens), and then Hitler becomes chancellor, we lose.You don't have ambiguity; you haveoptions.- Mitillos
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@nsg: Yes. Format is President (discard claim), Chancellor (discard claim), policy passed.
1: Reck (F), mallow (F), L
2: N_M (F), nsg (L), L
3: BuJ (F), Reck (F), F
4: S_S (F), N_M (F), F
Incidentally, that's 9 of the 11 fascist policies. If nobody lied, the next government will get a liberal card.You don't have ambiguity; you haveoptions.- Mitillos
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My votes from now on will go to Reck, N_M, nsg, and myself. If I'm forced to, I will also consider BuJ. I can't see any lib-players in the rest, so every government involving any of them gets a nein from me. With any luck, we won't get to BuJ-inspi-S_S-mallow presidencies a second time, which would be annoying.You don't have ambiguity; you haveoptions.- Mitillos
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The rules reminder corner (a.k.a. I don't have much of substance to add to the proceedings, at the moment):
1) BuJ can nominate anyone (including e.g. Reck, the previous chancellor) as chancellor for this coming government. Personally, I'm confident enough in inspi-fasc at this point, that I will only vote nein if the chancellor is picked from {S_S, mallow, inspi, Vij, nico}.
2) If we nein the next three governments in a row, we will get an automatic policy passed. Assuming there have been two discard lies, one of the two remaining cards is F and the other L. If F passes, the opportunity to use one of the two kill powers will be lost. Also, if there were three discard lies, then both the remaining cards are F.
3) The next government will also come with a deck reshuffle. Assuming we don't nein three times (or more), then the deck will have 8F 4L. The probability of 3F at that point will be just over 25%.You don't have ambiguity; you haveoptions.- Mitillos
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I'm going by post 380. If that is incorrect, then disregard what I said.You don't have ambiguity; you haveoptions.- Mitillos
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In post 389, Mitillos wrote:Personally, I'm confident enough in inspi-fasc at this point, that I will only vote nein if the chancellor is picked from {S_S, mallow, inspi, Vij, nico}.You don't have ambiguity; you haveoptions.- Mitillos
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@BuJ: I think N_M and nsg are lib (plus one of Vij and Nico) and simply voted nein because of your investigation result on inspi. It's not a completely unreasonable position, even if it potentially moves us away from victory. Also, there's another reason for you to thoroughly revise your nein list. You left mallow out.You don't have ambiguity; you haveoptions.- Mitillos
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@BuJ: Naturally I can understand your point of view, because I'm pretty much in the same position. S_S is confirmed scum for me. Unfortunately, I know that other players generally have a hard time reading me (my posting style has been used as scum "evidence" against me in the past, for example, and has even been described as "too robotic"), so I am pretty much predisposed to accept that other players will not be certain which of me and S_S is liberal and which is fascist, as a matter of course.
You should also note that nsg and N_M have made 15 and 18 posts each. Their interactions with both you and inspi are minimal. Furthermore, since your investigation on him, inspi has slowly reduced his contributions. In fact, the biggest posts he's made since then were largely aimed at you (the one person he has ostensibly no reason to try to communicate with, if he is liberal). In other words, he avoids contact with others, so that they can be uncertain about him, and by extension you.You don't have ambiguity; you haveoptions.- Mitillos
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Bzzt, incorrect:
1) Being a president who passed a fascist policy does not mean you are untrustworthy; the governments don't exist in isolation, they are part of the rest of the game.
2) I agree that if someone is investigated as fascist there should be a question mark over them and their investigator. But this ends the moment that one has a read on at least one of the pair. I have a libread on BuJ, as well as a fasc-read on inspi, because of the things they've said and done since the investigation. If you have better people to vote for, sure, avoid both people involved in an investigation, but if you don't, then a call has to be made. Which brings us to:
3) Vijarada and Nico Robin have done suspicious things before. They have also largely or completely stayed out of the conversation since. This is anti-liberal behaviour at best. However, I'm glad to see that you are trying to indirectly and subtly defend them by conveniently leaving them out of your list despite this, because it confirms my suspicions about them (well, most likely one of them at any rate, but I'd rather err on the side of caution and avoid sending a fascist on any government, something that your exclusion list patently does not do, given that it is excluding no more than 3 of the 4 fascists).
Oh, and as a side point, a neutral point of view is not actually a thing, especially here, given that we are all voting on these governments. I also recognise that trust is not something that should be afforded to me automatically, but I won't pretend that this means that I can now just sit out of everything as an outsider, and not try to give my reads (actual reads mind you, not mechanical processes for creating a list without examining any further implications of said list), or otherwise participate. I back what I say with actual arguments, which others can examine and determine whether they agree or not. Thus "trust" is irrelevant, and all that matters to me is that people examine and evaluate my arguments on their own merits. And if they disagree with me, I ask them for reasons (as I did e.g. when Reck said that he should not be investigated), not because of any notion that I should be trusted, but because I also want to evaluate the arguments of others, to see if I agree or not.You don't have ambiguity; you haveoptions.- Mitillos
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Technically we don't yet know that Reck is not Hitler for a fact, because when he was chancellor last, there had only been 2 fascist policies. However, if we reject 10^12*e's government (which I intend to nein, obviously), I'll nominate Reck.
Also, welcome 10^12*e, I think that either you or Nico Robin is the last fascist, and probably Hitler.You don't have ambiguity; you haveoptions.- Mitillos
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@2.718: You can get the whole thing by reading through the game, which presumably you are probably doing anyway, so I'll just give you the short version: I was already suspicious of both of you, due to past things you (in your case Vij) said and did, but then S_S (whom I know to be fascist) left both of you out of his list of players to avoid electing, despite said suspicious things and the fact that his list (which, incidentally, he didn't keep to, in the most recent election), was too short from everyone's point of view. As such, it seems to me that S_S was trying to keep the possibility of one of you being eventually elected chancellor.You don't have ambiguity; you haveoptions.- Mitillos
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Actually, since I have fascist reads on both 2.718 and Nico Robin and they come before and after me respectively, I am strongly in support of my presidency. If I were not, I would be in favour of three neins in a row, which would cause a random policy to be passed. If we believe nsg, there are 6 fascist and 3 liberal cards in the deck, at the moment. So, at best, the probability of a random fascist policy being passed is 2/3. If this happened, it would both further the fascist wincon and eliminate one of our only two execution powers. And even if we got a random liberal policy, that could still turn out to be bad, if the remaining liberal policies happened to be at the end. In that case, the next two policies would be fascist, no matter what we did.
@2.718: To answer your questions: As far as I can tell, the fascist team is S_S, one of {BuJ, inspi} (probably inspi), and two of {mallow, you, Nico Robin} (with mallow being by far more likely than the other two). So, from my POV either you or Nico is likely the last fascist, and since I've got enough other people to vote for at the moment, I'd rather not take the risk on either of you, so there is nobody you can nominate that would make me vote ja for you. As for why I have a fascist read on Vij/you, it was mainly the following posts:
- 125 (False claim about inspi pushing an anti-town policy using maths, when all inspi had done was state the probability of 3 fascist cards turning up on the first draw, which is null. Sure, inspi is probably fascist after all, but fake reasons are fake reasons.)
- 126 (Contradictory positions that i) reads are useless, but ii) we should somehow have someone who looks like they're in the middle and ja them.)
- 363 (Attacking Reck for being chancellor in two governments that passed a fascist policy, but having absolutely nothing to say about the presidents who were with Reck, even though they'd have to be implicated as well, had Reck lied.)
Regarding executions, as I mentioned before, I believe that Hitler is either you or Nico, given what S_S has said. As such, I would say that those are the best execution targets. I doubt S_S is Hitler, given his investigation on me and subsequent claim, so I don't think an execution should be wasted on him. Beyond that, if I were given an execution I would look at what the rest of the players think, as well as what reasons they have, before pulling the trigger. I'd be open to being convinced to shoot someone other than the two of you, but only through clear and valid arguments, explaining why someone else is more likely to be Hitler.You don't have ambiguity; you haveoptions.- Mitillos
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@Reck: Do you mean why 2.718 is taking a combined perspective with S_S, or why e.g. I think that S_S's actions indicate that 2.718 is potentially Hitler? I can only answer the latter, if that's what you want.
@2.718: You aren't supposed to trust my fascist list. You are supposed to evaluate it, based on reading the game. For instance, I know that S_S is fascist whereas you don't, but can deduce it from his words and actions (e.g. claiming an exclusion list then voting nein for a government of two people not on said list, despite having said nothing about mistrusting either of them).
Edit: Oh. Good, good, carry on.You don't have ambiguity; you haveoptions.- Mitillos
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Perhaps, but the thing is, I have already given explanations based on your words and actions. Even if I am falling victim to confirmation bias, others can evaluate said explanations for themselves, and either agree or correct me.
Incidentally, thank you for confirming to everyone that you are a fascist, by accusing me of confirmation bias. There would be no way for me to have confirmation bias for you being a fascist if I you were liberal, since I would be a fascist and would therefore know your alignment.You don't have ambiguity; you haveoptions.- Mitillos
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We are not skipping three times, because we are not potentially burying two of the three available liberal cards out of our reach, and we are not giving up one of our two chances to execute Hitler. After a couple more governments, if we know that all the liberal cards are gone, we can consider the merits of skipping three times, particularly since by then we will be getting close to the (BuJ, inspi, S_S, mallow) region, where we will be forced to skip, anyway.You don't have ambiguity; you haveoptions.- Mitillos
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The problem is that on one hand there is the baiting jas from fascists, and on the other is the automatic loss of the game should Hitler be elected, which would only take two liberal jas. If he really thought there was a decent chance you were Hitler, that would have been too big of a risk to take. If anything, I'm even more suspicious of 2.718 because of all this.
And don't worry; I'm a mathematician, I won't laugh. I might chuckle a bit, though.You don't have ambiguity; you haveoptions.- Mitillos
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@2.718: I'm not sure where you're getting that consensus idea. Reck at some point said he'd rather be in a government with you than with me; N_M, mallow, and NR have been quiet; S_S didn't have you in his exclusion list and said he'd vote ja if you took Reck or Nico; and inspi said he'd ja himself, S_S, or Reck (later he also said to skip three times, but that's another story). Really, the only two players who said they were categorically going to nein you throughout were BuJ and me. nsg just said she wanted to skip your presidency in a rather off-hand way, so we could possibly add her. Three out of ten is hardly a consensus.
Also, welcome, Klick. Sorry I forgot to say this before.You don't have ambiguity; you haveoptions. - Mitillos
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