Secret Hitler (Game Over)

[Something_Smart]

Hi

[Something_Smart]

Why are you guys so ja-happy

This is literally impossible to read into...

[Something_Smart]

I think I should be chancellor. Saske's replace-out was ridiculously obviously town, and I think BuJaber is town but would like to get more confident in that.

[Something_Smart]

It's the third election I thought?

[Something_Smart]

Or did you mean, this is the time when we are able to create information with low risk, so we have an excuse to not create any information?

[Something_Smart]

No, but you should not hesitate to nein if you have any bad feelings at all, or if you just want to see how the votes turn out.

[Something_Smart]

If you're made chancellor you can't "pick" anyone?

[Something_Smart]

@SS: You said that one should vote nein if they have any bad feelings. All you've given us on that front are a libread on BuJ and a claim that your slot is liberal because of the way they replaced out. How about something more to go on? Any other reads, thus far?

Sure, I have other reads. I don't really find it beneficial to share them yet, because (a) that strengthens them, and (b) it removes information from the votes to know how other people are going to vote.

[Something_Smart]

Inspir or Mitillos IMO. Difficult to read and very good to have as conftown.

[Something_Smart]

I don't think I'm that hard to read, at least for people who know what they're looking for.

(Also I still maintain that my predecessor's replace-out was obvtown.)

[Something_Smart]

Completely believe.

RC played his scumgame to a T.

[Something_Smart]

Anyway, @S_S: You may well be positioned between two fascists, so it's important to get reads on you immediately. You said you have other reads. Any of them that you want to share and explain?

Vijarada's second post looked a hell of a lot like distancing and none of the rest of his posting has been impressive.
N_M and Reck are townreads because they could have burned liberals and lied about it. But is a townread for neining that vote and calling what I already suspected on inspir.

Also unfortunately I'm V/LA for the weekend.

[Something_Smart]

Probably gonna go with Not_Mafia, though I don't think it matters much at this point.

[Something_Smart]

Pick Not_Mafia for chancellor

[Something_Smart]

3 fascist

At first glance I like that invest pool.

[Something_Smart]

Sorry for holding the game up :/

I was hoping for a little more discussion before investigating but it seems that wasn't going to happen.

[Something_Smart]

After catching up, I'd like to investigate in <Mitillos, mallow>.

I'd like for at least SOMEONE to weigh in before I decide though.

[Something_Smart]

Good enough for me.

Let's get this game moving again.

Investigate: Mitillos

[Something_Smart]

Mitillos is a fascist.

[Something_Smart]

There is confirmed one fascist in {BuJaber, S_S, mallow}. Very likely two.

If you exclude {BuJaber, inspi, S_S, Mitillos, mallow}, you have very likely excluded three fascists.

[Something_Smart]

High enough that it's the best EV play to assume he's definitely fascist.

[Something_Smart]

the dead person's alignment would be revealed

This doesn't happen.

And my math: there are two unplayed cards and three missing liberal policies. Nobody disagreed about what two cards the chancellor had, so at least one liberal, and very like two, must have been burned by the president.

Now, it could have been Reck or Not_Mafia. But that would imply both unlikely and unfortunate card distributions, and if we try to open that can of worms we're extremely unlikely to win. (And we're from the beginning, given how terrible the cards would have been.) So if we assume that neither NM nor Reck burned a liberal... then either the last two cards were liberal or two of the last three presidents burned a liberal.

[Something_Smart]

Based on what I literally just said... that should be a scumclaim.

[Something_Smart]

Can people say if they will vote yes for nsg, NM, or neither please?
Just want it on record so people can't change their mind without us noticing. Votes are a strong fascist tool.

Voting unpredictably is also a strong liberal tool, what's your point?

That said, I won't be doing that. I'm not voting ja on you.

[Something_Smart]

That's not how special election works; it returns to the way it was before. Meaning NSG is next.

[Something_Smart]

Given that that's the way you thought it worked though, why would you choose Bu knowing people you didn't like would follow him?

[Something_Smart]

V/LA until the 13th of July

Oh no. Maybe your activity will be worse

In other news I continue to be the only person to look at things from a neutral point of view (and to recognize that I don't deserve to be trusted). The proper exclusion block is every president who passed a fascist policy and every person who was investigated as fascist: {BuJaber, inspi, S_S, Mitillos, mallow}.

[Something_Smart]

Probability states that it's more likely the liberals were burned by people who claimed to not draw any.

[Something_Smart]

let mitilos be president.

Nobody, not even Mitillos, should be in support of this.

[Something_Smart]

let mitilos be president.

Nobody, not even Mitillos, should be in support of this.

Except that you could be lying and Mitillos could actually be liberal.

So? A lot of things could be true. It doesn't mean that it benefits town to argue over them.

[Something_Smart]

1. No opinion, because we have no information on you.
2. Possibly Reck or Nico. Definitely not anyone else.
3. That depends a great deal on how and by whom the next fascist policy is passed, but right now I'd say Mitillos.

[Something_Smart]

Mitillos, BuJaber, mallowgeno, no idea about the fourth.

[Something_Smart]

Lol why on earth would we ever accept Nico? They haven't been on any elections. It's literally roullette at that point.

Yet you voted ja on northsidegal as president...

[Something_Smart]

You can vote however you want. I only stated how I might vote.

[Something_Smart]

You haven't even played a game (mafia or otherwise) with me before...

[Something_Smart]

Since you haven't played with me, you don't know that it is

I mean, that's not reflective of either of our alignments. But saying that my alignment is obvious, from a perspective of already knowing my alignment, is pure confirmation bias no matter what I actually am.

[Something_Smart]

You know my alignment anyway.

That's the point.

[Something_Smart]

Actually.

That could be relevant.

If Mitillos is Hitler, then from his perspective, there would have been, in his mind, a chance I was a fascist playing the long game. In that case, it would have benefited us both to throw ME under the bus and get HIM trusted. He might have thought that possibility remote, but it's worth pointing out that, at least initially, he may not have known my alignment.

[Something_Smart]

I neined because the government consisting of the same two people was ja'd by every single player (and drew two liberals so that it showed nothing about either of them), and because IF the votes were close (the only situation where my vote actually matters), I would have preferred it not go through so we could talk about it.

[Something_Smart]

Which of the 4 are you thinking he would choose?

[Something_Smart]

It doesn't matter...?

Seriously?

[Something_Smart]

It doesn't matter except that if we choose the wrong person we

lose the game on the spot.

That matters.

[Something_Smart]

So, your arguments are predicated on your own innocence. That's a great way to get nobody to listen to them.

(Also in what world do I force a fascist through and then 1v1 somebody as Hitler?)

[Something_Smart]

Yes, the assumption is that several presidents threw liberal policies. If you think I'm probably fascist, it should be because you think I threw a liberal policy (and the converse should be true as well; in a world where I am fascist, I probably did discard a liberal).

And I totally think Mitillos could be Hitler (and I've totally brought that up before).

[Something_Smart]

Also, I'd like to point out, to everyone outside of BuJaber/Mitillos/inspir: Both BuJaber and Mitillos are looking for every opportunity to call everything I do scummy (in this case he even went so far as to say that I confessed rather than asking himself why I would do that AS EITHER ALIGNMENT). They have been wholly focused on their own perspective and trying to push the idea that the way they see the game is the way that everyone should be seeing the game.

I have been trying to provide information that will be helpful even if I am not trusted, knowing that I have good reason not to be trusted. I have no interest in pointing out how scummy Mitillos is-- and I don't even think his play is that scum indicative (it seems like he'd play very similar as either alignment)-- and if you did trust me over him based just on rhetoric like that, I'd be questioning your judgement anyway.

I don't object to BuJaber's plan, so long as he has absolutely no say on who within that group is chosen. For self-centered reasons (I know I'm not Hitler), I would LIKE it to be me, and also for objective reasons there is a compelling case to be made as to why I'm not Hitler. But there's no point focusing on the former; if you agree with my objective reasoning (that I wouldn't have played how I did as president), good. If not, do what you like, and we'll hope it works out.

[Something_Smart]

The scumslip is simple you were using it as a way to question why I would ever think you're hitler. But I have no way of knowing for sure that you threw away a liberal as opposed to NM/mallow/reck so I could never think of that question for you specifically, but knowing that you threw it you could think of it for yourself.

It's a given that a president threw away a liberal. Very likely two did. From your perspective, it should be extremely likely that, if I am fascist, I threw away a liberal.

You said you trust Reck, N_M drawing three liberals is astronomically unlikely, so it just leaves me and mallow anyway.

so long as he has absolutely no say on who within that group is chosen.

Can you explain this part? How would I have any say in it anyway. It's up to the president and then the votes.

Well, yes. But I don't want you to then say, "I think we should make someone in Bu/inspi/S_S/Mitillos chancellor, therefore let's make Mitillos chancellor." I want to make sure they don't listen to that, because otherwise a very obvious scum motivation for the plan emerges. (if Mitillos is Hitler, that's probably your motivation for suggesting it anyway.)

[Something_Smart]

...I don't even have words for this anymore.

[Something_Smart]

Hey, guess who's basically confirmed not Hitler.

[Something_Smart]

Hey, guess who's basically confirmed not Hitler.

explain

There was little to no resistance to that government, I certainly didn't expect it to be defeated that soundly.

If I'm Hitler it would mean at least two, and more likely three, fascists neined because they expected 4/6 liberals to nein it. I don't know where that expectation would come from, especially if a liberal nominated it. (And if a fascist nominated Hitler, then why in the hell would he nein it?)

(Furthermore, there's confirmed one fascist in BuJaber/inspi and both could have made a perfectly reasonable justification for jaing-- inspi because he clearly trusts me over Mitillos, and Bu because he was the one who suggested this.)

(Double furthermore, Hitler is supposed to play the long game. While getting into a 1v1 as Hitler is not unheard of, me calling Mitillos fascist should be another data point in favor of "S_S is not Hitler".)

[Something_Smart]

If 6 people say they will nein you no matter who you pick, can you stop wasting everyone's time?

[Something_Smart]

Actually we only need 5. And we already have 2 in BuJaber and me.

[Something_Smart]

If I understand correctly it was trying to bait out jas from fascists.

But he failed to bait anyone who's actually participating in the game (and I don't think Nico's vote is meaningful as she'd probably ja whatever as liberal), so whatever it is, his posterior probability (don't laugh) of me being Hitler must be lower than his prior probability was.

[Something_Smart]

And I have played enough secret hitler to know that hitler can certainly accuse a fasc and try to gain trust by appearing to be on the "liberal side" of a FvF argument. Not saying that it necessarily

is

happening, but it definitely

can

.

Sure, that's a totally valid play and I've done it myself.

But do you think Mitillos is arguing like he wants to lose? Clearly he's calculating enough to know that, in that situation, he WANTS to look suspicious.

[Something_Smart]

Well, the consensus was that I would be neined

Huh, I saw it very differently. Several people expressed support for BuJaber's idea, and nobody (except Mitillos) was really overtly against me being chancellor.

What made you think this? (Clearly you were right, but it was a result I didn't expect.)

[Something_Smart]

OH WHAT A SHOCKER.

Also Mitillos should have zero credibility in anyone's eyes right now, and thus you should not be recommending he act on his own feelings at all; deciding his own shot rather than agreeing to be leashed should be taken as a scumclaim.

[Something_Smart]

@S_S: Presumably you're saying I should have zero credibility because it is unreasonable for 6F3L to yield 3F. Even though the probability of this is about 23.08%. That's some really valid reasoning there.

So the odds of you being town (already objective low in my opinion) just were made 5 times lower. In a game of probabilities like this, that ought to round to zero.

Anyway, I already said ages ago that I wouldn't be deciding the execution myself if I happened to get one (I believe this was when 2.718 joined the game and was discussing executions), and that I'd want to see discussion and reasons as to whom I should shoot.

I'm not asking for you to have discussions and reasons. I'm asking for you to have literally zero say in who you shoot. Are you saying that if Reck and Not_Mafia and Klick decided they wanted you to shoot me, you'd trust your own opinion (even knowing that I am fascist) over theirs?

[Something_Smart]

(*objective

ly

low in my opinion)

[Something_Smart]

Your opinion is automatically subjective, given that it is an opinion.

I mean my opinion of how an observer with no information should see the game. So while it is subjective, in some sense it is objective as well. (My subjective opinion, of course, is that there is a 0% chance you are town.)

I mean, if we did calculate this probabilitistically, the objective chance you are fascist is a little over 50% to account for the case that I 1v1 you when we are both fascist, which already cuts your probability in half. Not to mention the factors can't be measured exactly, like, you know, the fact that my government was voted down while yours was voted in.

[Something_Smart]

Every game of Secret Hitler I’ve seen revolved way too much around attempted setup breaking and not enough around reads.

That's because discussion in Secret Hitler is tepid at best and that combined with the high proportion of scum makes reads awful in general.

If you have one or two pet reads based on personal experience with a player, then that's probably +EV for town, but otherwise playing on reads over mechanics is likely to be -EV.

This is a case in point; you've never played with me (aside from One Night Werewolf which hardly counts), and I'm hard to read in regular mafia, let alone here where I'm mostly arguing mechanics.

I think there’s scum motivation in trying to direct gameplay solely via what’s statistically likely, because it limits opportunities to obtain reads.

This is true if you assume that forming reads is good for town. I'm not so sure that it is. Especially since, in the case of someone like me, it's impossible to remove mechanics from my view of the game, so any pure reads from me would either be informed by mechanics and so not pure reads, or utter garbage.

And more than half the players in this game have something to their POV that they can't get rid of. So be warned. If you're looking for what appears to be real reads, you're gonna get fake ones a lot more easily.

[Something_Smart]

Also... welcome to the game!

[Something_Smart]

deciding his own shot rather than agreeing to be leashed should be taken as a scumclaim.

Don't forget.

[Something_Smart]

Almost posted

Yeah, that was Hitler. GG liberals.

to see if I could get any good reactions, but I figured the odds of a genuine town reaction are slim enough and that's mean enough that it's not worth yanking people's chains like that.

On the contrary, if the game WERE over I would definitely know it and would be telling you so you wouldn't have to wait. So no. Nico was not Hitler. I'm still lost on the logic of why Hitler would be quiet rather than actively trying to play the long game, but whatever.

I'm not dead, which is only a good thing if people actually start listening to me. (And they'd better, because otherwise it's effectively 4v4 and you've already lost-- unless you think that Mitillos would bus Nico rather than just shooting me, when shooting me was probably the smarter option from his POV anyway.) And... I should definitely be more trusted than Mitillos, especially now that his "risky shot" turned out to be wrong.

[Something_Smart]

How could S_S know that Nico is not hitler, unless S_S is fascist? Ausuka had not updated the game until after S_S made that post.

Huh, good point. Guess I must be fascist then.

[Something_Smart]

Aw you ruined it.

I wanted to see if it took him a while to figure it out, which would probably make him liberal who had to consider the possibility that I actually did just admit to being fascist.

[Something_Smart]

Might as well pick one of BuJaber, me, SS or Mitillos now, none of us are likely to be Hitler

There's no reason Mitillos is unlikely to be Hitler here, just so you know. He was forced into the 1v1.

[Something_Smart]

Two back-to-back lib/lib governments drew into 3 fascist policies.

No wonder we had such a hard time.

[Something_Smart]

This actually is a lesson to all. You correctly assumed I threw a liberal. But the whole playerlist was under the assumption that 2 people threw liberals. Turns out only 1 did. Deck ate the rest. Gotta be careful with assumptions.

Nope, that assumption was completely valid and was the correct play to make. It's better to sacrifice some chance of winning in an unlikely case for a chance of winning in a more likely case-- and even with that assumption that turned out to be wrong, we still had several paths to victory.

If you keep the attitude of "anything is possible," by definition it's going to screw you more than it's going to help you.

[Something_Smart]

I bet I have an idea as to why.

Secret Hitler is not a conventional social deduction game. For one, it's very hard to form reads-- the two fascist strategies are basically "long game" (play liberals) or "short game" (dump liberals)-- and there's SOME nuance in there, I know, but overall it's very easy to play a consistent and decent fascist strategy. Furthermore, the outcome of any one government, early on at least, matters little, and you can contrast this to something like Resistance where every mission is huge and who supported it or opposed it is very revealing. Finally, even the fascists, who are the informed ones, lack a lot of information-- and the most important fascist knows virtually nothing at all.

The upshot of this is that if you play off of reads you will in general do poorly-- ESPECIALLY in a forum. Whereas, if you play off of statistics supplemented by reads when necessary, you're likely to get most things right, and like inspi said, you don't need to know everything in order to win as liberal. That's why I wanted the 1v1s removed: because it brings the game from 6:4 down to 4:2 which is a much nicer ratio. (Actually, it would have been even NICER but we didn't know that )

I think the answer to why this game doesn't work for you is right there in your lament-- you want a game that focuses on reads. In my opinion, the best ones for that are Resistance and Mafia itself. It's no surprise that this game attracted a lot of people I would describe as very logically minded (myself, inspi, Mitillos, 2 718, and if I missed anyone don't be mad because those were just the ones that came to mind), because it's a lot more mathematically based than most.

Hope that helps or at least sheds a little insight on the problem!