Open 725: Jungle Republic - Day 5

[AP]

By the end of page 28 I'm starting to laugh at you all. It looks like everyone is trying to force their own view of what ALL FACTIONS should/would be doing, which is the definition of "how to lose a game 101". Just DON'T. If you're town THINK of what the 2 anti-town faction "might" be doing, but keep it to yourself. This player list is competitive enough I doubt anyone needs "outside opinions" for starters, but -even worse- they can actually make use of those publicly stated ideas to WIFOM it all.

Here's a question that I DO NOT WANT YOU TO ANSWER IN PUBLIC.. only to yourself: What's the weakest WW duo and/or Mafia trio from your PoV? Because the way I see it is the weakest combination of either is still good enough to already have a plan AND to use whatever bright ideas you state here to their benefit.

[Fumuki]

AP, you're not understanding my point.

If the Werewolves do the dumb thing of killing townies and don't luckily catch the Seer in the first night, they very probably lose.

"But isn't that good?"

IT'S NOT, BECAUSE THEY ALWAYS MAKE TOWN LOSE TOGETHER.

THAT'S THE PROBLEM

IT'S GOOD FOR TOWN THAT WEREWOLVES REALIZE WHAT THEY SHOULD BE DOING

AND IT'S GOOD FOR MAFIA THAT WEREWOLVES GO WITH A NOT ELABORATED PLAN

Town only

loses

by letting Werewolves uninformed, as silly and weird that may sound.

[AP]

OK, before I go on I would like to make sure no one misunderstands me, so..

I don't mind you using "scum" referring to "Mafia". I'll still understand what you mean from the context.

HOWEVER, my own use of the term "Scum" in actually "any anti-town entity". SK is SCUM to me. WWs are SCUM to me. A Survivour is NOT though, because -while indeed not aligned with Town- the Survivour is not necessarily anti-town.

Si, when >I< use "scum" from here-on, please assume I mean all anti-town aligned players combined.

Now off to this:

Omg guys, Sando doesn't get this game. I swear that he doesn't.

I think given experience, asking people to trust you that I'm bad at understand how game mechanics are going to play out is probably not going to go well for you...

This is a slightly townie post, although it's not doing Sando any favours in the eyes of most.

@Sando: This was a "way out" for you. You should have accepted that you don't understand the mechanics of the game as it would have relieved you from having to defend yourself more.

Now why does it feel townie to me? For exactly that. Scum (and arguably town) should have taken the chance to relief the pressure on themselves. Now Scum are survivalistic by definition, while town are sometimes stubborn enough to miss such an opportunity (because they're not really looking for one), and the fact Sando is threatening Fumuki back rather than bow down feels more like a stubborn townie rather than a survivalistic scum.

[AP]

@Fumuki: I would have preferred to do a proper catch up before responding, but I did read the 2nd line of 801, so..

1- Unless the Seer made it quite clear whom they are I don't think the WW are going to be that lucky on N1
2- generally speaking, there are two -opposing- approaches to the game here from the WWs PoV. The first one is "lynch Town and shoot Mafia". The second being "Lynch Mafia and shoot Town". The first one doesn't do them much good by day, but avoid the Mafia lining up on their lynch, while the second does buy them "some" town credit by day at the expense of Mafia being overly concerned about pushing the WWs over town.

BOTH approaches assume the WWs have GOOD reads though. I'll get back to the rest of that post when I catch up.

[skitter30]

OK I'm going to do my best not to wallpost.

--> @sando, 529: I'm a little bit confused about this given that you've previously characterized him as a scummy lurker? Like you're now saying that posting elsewhere isn't really inherently scummy?

--> I don't get why UD won't just share his reasons for thinking sando is scum? He never did share why he thought I was scum; he later just said he was no longer scumreading me. I do feel like the past paragraph of 539 is him trying to (badly) deflect away from the attention he's recieved over the sando vote and I don't much like it.

I'm kinda getting the vibe that he might be mislynchbait, cuz people seem to be scumreading him and hopping on him for not making sense (ie and not for being inherently scummy), but then I misread him badly last time, so what do I know? I do feel very confident that the ducks aren't scum together though, but I think I said that already.

--> mwnn maybe town? (btw, I did in fact think you were brass )

--> hi fumuki! (yeah I pretty much always write wallposts. Sorry, I try really hard not to but I'm not very good at it)

ok I got up to page 26 but I gotta get to class, I'll pick up later

[ManWithNoName]

Do we have a case on Espe?

Can anyone perhaps direct me to a single post or a series of up to 5 posts which lay out said case?

[ManWithNoName]

UD is not mislynch bait because at least 4 of us are TRing him at this point, by the way. He's town.

[Fumuki]

Do we have a case on Espe?

Can anyone perhaps direct me to a single post or a series of up to 5 posts which lay out said case?

794 is your best shot I think.

[ManWithNoName]

Do we have a case on Espe?

Can anyone perhaps direct me to a single post or a series of up to 5 posts which lay out said case?

794 is your best shot I think.

He's good at this setup, so let's kill him?

[ManWithNoName]

Do we have a case on Espe?

Can anyone perhaps direct me to a single post or a series of up to 5 posts which lay out said case?

794 is your best shot I think.

He's good at this setup, so let's kill him?

Wait, no, that's actually a good post, I misread a line.

VOTE: Espeonage

[Fumuki]

Do we have a case on Espe?

Can anyone perhaps direct me to a single post or a series of up to 5 posts which lay out said case?

794 is your best shot I think.

He's good at this setup, so let's kill him?

no no no no

He is good and understand this setup however is saying something that doesn't benefit town but benefits Mafia.

That's why we should kill him.

[Fumuki]

Oh, okay, MWNN already voted.

Thanks MWNN, let's make a brighter world to town in this multiball.

[AP]

seer only gets ww/not ww results right?

Truth, but I slipped first, get your own slip!

It's public knowledge ducks wear no slips

[ManWithNoName]

AP, you should join the Espeonage wagon, 2/3 of it is town. Let's make it a straight 75%

[AP]

Fuck it, I'll just say it. I'm brassherald

No, you're not! >I< am brassherald.

[ManWithNoName]

Fuck it, I'll just say it. I'm brassherald

No, you're not! >I< am brassherald.

BRB, reporting ManWithNoName for identity theft.

[AP]

AP, you should join the Espeonage wagon, 2/3 of it is town. Let's make it a straight 75%

VOTE: Espeonage

Still not caught up though, and my internet (or my PC) is shitty.

[AP]

Sando, Furnuki, the worst, UD and someone are all the bad people.

cj and skitter are not that last slot.

THAT AVATAR!

I was like.. why is tw calling himself scum? Is it sarcasm? And then I realized it wasn't tw's post!

[AP]

Mafia are a bigger threat than Wolves

A different view is always appreciated, and especially so when it comes from N_M.

Mind explaining though?

[AP]

akshully

a thought what are historical win rates?

So that's a hype down under? Because an Australian friend has just posted on Facebook, and it looked like this:

Spoiler: Copy & Paste

SUNSOF,,BETCHES,,
STOP,,,COLING,,,ME,,,I,,FORBED,U
IAM,,,NOT,,LIVE,MY,LIFE,,TO,,YOUR,,STUPID,,ERGES,GIT,LOST,AND,SHAVE,IT,IN,YOUR,

And I was like.. I should go back to school immediately!

[Fumuki]

Mafia are a bigger threat than Wolves

A different view is always appreciated, and especially so when it comes from N_M.

Mind explaining though?

Just giving my two cents until N_M come to fully explain their POV.

While checking the Jungle Republic games played, I noticed that N_M played a fair share of them (even modded one) and well...Mafia won the most. Mafia, like I kept saying, gain a huge advantage from the wrong night kills that werewolves usually do.

I'm not interested in "allying" with the wolves anymore to deal with Mafia because independent of who they are, no one seems to be buying what I'm saying.

They can go search the Seer till the depths of hell.

Although I'm willing to lynch any kind of scum, Mafia for me is a priority for me now, at least until we've got one of them lynched.

If Werewolves aren't going to deal with Mafia then I just need to try dealing with Mafia by myself through the lynches. They need to be reduced in numbers or are going to quickly endgame with this setup mechanics.

[AP]

@Fumuki: That's easier said than done though. For starters; its a 7-3-2 setup, so assuming no bussing and no WW help we need all 7 townies to agree on a lynch for it to go through.

The second problem is we are always going to make at least one bad read ourselves. That also applies to WWs, so even if they decide to listen to you they are not guaranteed to him on Mafia still. In fact, often enough one of the towniest slots is in fact anti-town and many of the scummiest looking players are in fact town!

So, you either want to have perfect reads AND for the WHOLE TOWN to follow..

OR

You still need perfect reads and for the WWs to follow.

P.S. We won't even know if the WWs

are

following the plan until we see who they shoot on N1, and we need to point them to a target if they are going to listen at all. AGAIN, we have a problem, which is this could very well be used to WIFOM us still. You tell the WWs to shoot me. They decide not to, and come back the next day pushing me as a WW myself because why else would the WWs not shoot me?

So, while your talk is ideal in theory, applying it in practice doesn't work that well at all, because there are always going to be holes in it for either (or both) scum factions to use it to their benefit (they want to win too, you know)

[the worst]

akshully

a thought what are historical win rates?

So that's a hype down under? Because an Australian friend has just posted on Facebook, and it looked like this:

Spoiler: Copy & Paste

SUNSOF,,BETCHES,,
STOP,,,COLING,,,ME,,,I,,FORBED,U
IAM,,,NOT,,LIVE,MY,LIFE,,TO,,YOUR,,STUPID,,ERGES,GIT,LOST,AND,SHAVE,IT,IN,YOUR,

And I was like.. I should go back to school immediately!

I'm gonna add him tbh

[Fumuki]

Hmmm...you said actually some pretty good points AP, but...of course the WW will help a wagon on Mafia, same thing I think can be said to Mafia wagoning WW .-. (I can see a reason to not do it but I don't think anyone would do it).

What I'm saying is that I'm not expecting them to help hunt mafia at night, because it seems that they are going for the Seer. And I'm not saying for us to collectively decide who WW will shoot, but it'll be kind of apparent if they are shooting for the Seer or if they are trying to hit Mafia, like, if they shot someone like UD they are totally shooting town, there's a lot of better choices to catch scum right now.

I was thinking to use it more like vigilantes. Town generally doesn't decide who'll be vigged, they just say "don't fuck it up please" in hope that the Vigilant doesn't do bad shots. Everyone knows when the vig shot is something reasonable or when the person just tried to be a "hero" by killing the obv!town in night 1 for the chance of them being scum.

Anyway, I really am not expecting it anymore, and as you said, some points are sketchy (although I still consider the best thing to do), for now I'll just rather focus in hunting scum, specially Mafia, and if the Seer does his part we can deal with the Werewolves later.

[Sando]

"Wolves want to kill seer more than scum." My interpretation was "WW want to kill the Seer. WW also want to kill Scum. But WW want the Seer more than they want Scum". Fumuki got "WW want to kill the Seer, and so does Scum, but WW want it more".

Obviously the difference is huge, as the Mafia don't want the Seer gone as a priority, so I would have been much more inclined to go with my interpretation if Sando ever corrected Fumuki there. I was surprised that he didn't, and while I don't think Sando is in fact a WW myself (Why would a WW think aloud in the main thread about his plans?) I now clearly see Fumuki has a point (i.e. NOT overdoing it).

What are you getting at here? This is super confusingly written.

Fumuki thinks WW should target: Mafia>Seer>Town
Sando

thought

seer was a threat to both Mafia and WW, Fumu corrected me.
Sando thinks WW should target: Seer>Mafia>Town

At no point did my thoughts on WW target change. Is that first quote from me? Cause if so, Fumu got interpretation right there, not you. I was wrong about seer role PM.

I think me and Fumuki understand each other here (correct me if I'm wrong Fumu), even if we disagree...and yeah I've "corrected" (disagreed would be a better term) Fumuki on this a lot.