[EV] Purgatory

Sukima · Post Post #3 (isolation #0) » Fri May 18, 2018 6:05 am

You can have an even number of mafia though, because once one side hits N of 2N mafia, game is over.

Sukima · Post Post #4 (isolation #1) » Fri May 18, 2018 7:03 am

From just manually cranking out scenarios in a spreadsheet, I'm getting for 3:6....

17/84+1/14+3/21+3/28 = 17+6+12+9 / 84 = 11/21 EV for town, ~52.38%?

Did you maybe forget that judged people always go to hell regardless of if it would have been a heaven phase next, and the next phase is always hell? Since that allows for situations like Townie Hell, Judgement day Mafia Hell, Mafia Hell again Town wins.

Also getting 17/35 for the 3:4 set.

Sukima · Post Post #6 (isolation #2) » Thu May 24, 2018 6:13 am

Did you make sure that judgement days go into hell days? Since that favors town pretty greatly where if they get a correct judgement day, they immediately get another chance to lynch mafia.