Fallout Mafia - Commonwealth Edition (Day 8)

[Impossibear]

if you read the thread i'm sure it will make more sense than trying to sort out all the nuances through clips.

[Impossibear]

understandably you're doing your best, it's a long read... but just saying "it seems off" irritates me because legit gave you all the info i have and that's not something i can answer for you

[Impossibear]

we thought vent would flip town. there was no reason to change our crumb because our decision hadn't changed until after he flipped scum. that lynch was led by ouroboros. strong armed through actually so not only were there no good vca to use to figure out where to shoot, but our reads clearly needed fixing. as a compromise and to hopefully catch another scum we followed the advice of the person who pushed through a scum lynch.

[Impossibear]

ok. don't claim though? like why do you need to?

[Impossibear]

never mind don't answer that. i just see no reason for yet another unwarranted claim

[Impossibear]

if they didn't shoot someone who was protected, then either we got shot or someone was blocked and the blocked person is confscum.

[Impossibear]

there are specific conditions under which our shot can fail.

[Impossibear]

@impossibear Can you please define the modifier “gated”? It has different meanings on different sites. I don’t want you to state your gate. I want you to define the modifier.

Specifically in this case, it means that there is some additional modifier to our role.

That modifier may or may not be one of the following:

Can only target someone on the wagon at EoD or any variation thereof.
Even/Odd Night
Loyal
X-Shot
Nonconsecutive
Night X
Night X,Y, etc.
Loses the ability if a kill fails
Enabled
I'm intentionally cutting this list short, because if I list every modifier I can think of to the role of vig and forget one, someone could reasonably assume that that is not our specific gate and thus we lose the advantage of scum not knowing if they need to play around our shot. I may or may not have included our specific gate in this list, although I will admit that it is not loyal. I think that would be an interesting choice to modify vig with though.

~Jingle

[Impossibear]

So, I have something so say here that could change everything. Since I've been gone a few days please uh... let me apologize for not bringing this up pages ago..

I roleblocked davesv.

If we're claiming that the only nightkill was a vig shot off impossibear, then I'm pretty sure I blocked the kill.

VOTE: dave slot

yeah ok but otm says he was prevented from acting N1.

besides the fact that everything otm has said sounds like bs...

[Impossibear]

and why the hell would you roleblock dave...????

[Impossibear]

OTM, you should probably post a reads list in case this ends up requiring a modkill.

OTM is now 100% town in my book.

[Impossibear]

Etl do you see why I have a problem with your setup spec now?

Somethings don’t add up.

No. It was Jingle's anyway. But are you saying you lied about being prevented from acting or not?

Because if you acted, there's only two possibilities:
We got shot
Davesaz shot

If you were prevented, all of this is friggin moot anyway.

So.. we have to determine which is more likely.

[Impossibear]

Etl do you see why I have a problem with your setup spec now?

Somethings don’t add up.

Roleblocker has an absurd elegance as the protective for reasons. Unfortunately, I don't think

my setup spec, not ETL's, and no. I'm actually still pretty down with my hold on the setup, assuming I haven't missed anything. I need to catch up, but don't have enough time to guarantee I'll be able to.

[Impossibear]

him turning me down when I did what he wants me to do and appealing to his skills and him saying no is a scumclaim

Yeah this is a thing he does. Don't bother trying to get him to actually answer

anything

.

[Impossibear]

is a scumclaim if dave is town.

I don't get this though..? RC has been pushing wilky, us, and wraith. Why does dave-town = RC-scum?

[Impossibear]

*sigh*

Whatever.

We need to finish the quest ASAP and then we can do whatever.

[Impossibear]

FTR, playerlist based only:

Likely to shoot our slot:

Jungle>RCdra>random player caught confirmable crumbs.

It's not a hard guilty on Dave or RC, but it is definitely good evidence. We need to reread Dave to make sure you're not wrong there ETL.

Regardless, RC isn't the right play specifically today, because if Jungle is scum RC becomes conftown in my book and we learn that tomorrow based on the quest existing/not existing.

PEdit: Are you saying the mod didn't tell you about previous actions? If so, did you ask if your slot had acted previously?

[Impossibear]

Etl do you see why I have a problem with your setup spec now?

Somethings don’t add up.

Roleblocker has an absurd elegance as the protective for reasons. Unfortunately, I don't think

my setup spec, not ETL's, and no. I'm actually still pretty down with my hold on the setup, assuming I haven't missed anything. I need to catch up, but don't have enough time to guarantee I'll be able to.

FTR, playerlist based only:

Likely to shoot our slot:

Jungle>RCdra>random player caught confirmable crumbs.

It's not a hard guilty on Dave or RC, but it is definitely good evidence. We need to reread Dave to make sure you're not wrong there ETL.

Regardless, RC isn't the right play specifically today, because if Jungle is scum RC becomes conftown in my book and we learn that tomorrow based on the quest existing/not existing.

PEdit: Are you saying the mod didn't tell you about previous actions? If so, did you ask if your slot had acted previously?

Jingle

[Impossibear]

Etl do you see why I have a problem with your setup spec now?

Somethings don’t add up.

Roleblocker has an absurd elegance as the protective for reasons. Unfortunately, I don't think

my setup spec, not ETL's, and no. I'm actually still pretty down with my hold on the setup, assuming I haven't missed anything. I need to catch up, but don't have enough time to guarantee I'll be able to.

Your/Jingle’s setup spec says I am scum. I am a roleblocker. I am town. So I don’t see how you can hold onto that.

You said it yourself, roleblocker fits as the missing protective. My setup spec said it was likely scum had something to fuck with our actions, which is still true.

Oh, and your varsoon school of modding point is either misapplied or completely wrong. Consider the setup 3 goons v 1 cop 9VT. Day three, you can have 4 unlynchables, which is more than the number of scum, and the setup is a scumwin 99% of the time.

[Impossibear]

I want to reread Dave before committing to that.

Also, I need to consider whether we're in massclaim territory.

[Impossibear]

Protip I literally never shoot your slot as scum.

That is just objectively bad play on your part, then, because you know I tend to tunnel you regardless of your alignment. Protip: If you're tired of getting policy lynched by BoP as scum, try to trim the playerlist to include fewer people who are receptive to that with the scumkill.

[Impossibear]

Claims:

Impossibear: ? BP Vig
Wilky: Miller Slow Cop
Jungle: Weird JOAT/Dreaming God w/ 1shot daycop
You: Roleblocker
Kaede: IC
Davesaz: Miller
Tchill: Non weak hider

Flipped:
Scum Roleswapper

[Impossibear]

Do we think scum claim miller straight away?

[Impossibear]

Part of me wonders why we're assuming Town Roleblocker and not scum Roleblocker here. The other part of me thinks scum wouldn't have claimed here anyway.

Or targeted Dave.

[Impossibear]

If Dave is scum lynch this for BoP as IMhO he would be scum.

Actually, I can grok this.

[Impossibear]

i don't think this is good jingle. too many variables. both could be town and if dave flips town half the thread will want to lynch otm who could also be town. then that's 3 down plus night kills. we have to wait for more

[Impossibear]

Part of me wonders why we're assuming Town Roleblocker and not scum Roleblocker here. The other part of me thinks scum wouldn't have claimed here anyway.

Because we're on a deadline to get information if Math is going to get modkilled, so we make the assumptions that net the most usable information, cutting down on wasted time. We can reconsider if no mod action happens, but worrying about Math's alignment is literally the last concern we should have atm.

[Impossibear]

why would he be modkilled?

[Impossibear]

i don't think this is good jingle. too many variables. both could be town and if dave flips town half the thread will want to lynch otm who could also be town. then that's 3 down plus night kills. we have to wait for more

Agreed, I don't think we treat this as a hard guilty. It IS possible that scum caught my crumbs and shot us. Which is why (Other than the whole cop thing) this isn't a turbowagon.

[Impossibear]

i don't know what's going on mark. sorry. i'll let jingle go on

[Impossibear]

Part of me wonders why we're assuming Town Roleblocker and not scum Roleblocker here. The other part of me thinks scum wouldn't have claimed here anyway.

Because we're on a deadline to get information if Math is going to get modkilled, so we make the assumptions that net the most usable information, cutting down on wasted time. We can reconsider if no mod action happens, but worrying about Math's alignment is literally the last concern we should have atm.

Fair enough.

@Impossibear

You wanna make this argument?

That I should reevaluate if you don't get modkilled? Yes. I'm operating under the assumption that you're town, because we don't have time to do otherwise. If we do have time to do otherwise, I stop talking off the seat of my pants and step back.

I also need to check and see from a balance perspective if it's possible town has more power/this much power, what this means for the Tchill claim, whether any specific players are scum, etc.

[Impossibear]

Waste of limited time for now. I need to think about it if you don't die. I don't need to think about it if you do.

[Impossibear]

Based on roleswapper dave is not actually a miller if scum.

Thus, if dave is scum, RC has huge scum equity.

[Impossibear]

If you get modkilled and it ends the day I'm not getting copped and am probably a paranoia lynch at some point in case I'm a serial killer. Otherwise, we really don't have to worry about me.

[Impossibear]

I lost track, but if a modkill ends the day we literally cannot be the hammer vote.

[Impossibear]

So no one should vote Tchill while we try to figure this out, JIC.

[Impossibear]

Might be time for mass claim

Not before this situation resolves. If we don't get a lynch afterwards, there's no point in risking scum getting a free shot on any counterclaiming town power.

If we were the nightkill, who is scum?

[Impossibear]

Dammit, I'm out of time and all of the most useful things I can do require a bunch of it.

I have no idea who would have killed us. My best bet is to look at who backed down off of us after I crumbed, but I don't have the time to do so. I need to reevaluate with rb instead of doc/jk in mind to see if tchill is still lockscum.

[Impossibear]

Mark, a full condensed readslist would be helpful if you can make a barebones one.

I fucking hate situations like this.

[Impossibear]

UNVOTE:

[Impossibear]

what if I'm town and you're planning all of your little games around trying to fuck with someone who is town and tired of getting fucked with

This seems familiar.

Let me make this easy.

ETL who are we lynching?

Honestly dude... I think davesaz is town. But I 100% follow your logic on why the information dictates he should be lynched. Under normal circumstances.

This game = not normal circumstances.

And given your night action reveal, I now firmly believe that not only is there NOT additional protection for town, but we were absolutely shot last night. To me, that says it's either Ouroboros or RMOJ as the culprit there, as they are really the only ones who would dictate such a move on N1. Given Ouroboros behavior this entire game, and RMOJ's claim/quest, I'm personally leaning towards it being more likely Ouroboros, especially given the fact that "super town #1 scumhunter" decided that me, MWNN and RMOJ were scum, and so far I know for a fact that 2 of those 3 is incorrect. If the quest pans out, it basically conftowns RMOJ because that effect really doesn't benefit scum

at all

to confirm a town player publicly. So it's only a matter of time before that is a thing, and I can see why preventing the quest completion would be scum-goal summo prioritate today. <<< That's what you should be looking out for, and anyone doing so, whether deliberately or "by accident" is dying pronto.

I think wilky is probably town. I think MariaR so isn't, and I don't understand the town reads there

at all

. I also think the fake mason claim with Ouroboros was scummy as fuck and potentially could have outed any real masons if any existed. I think the way things are looking, we probably don't have any and we got lucky there. But the problem exists that both players would have and should have known that was a possibility.

I'm conflicted on Ankamius who did fuck all for most of the first day but later seemed to become more engaged. Whether that is because she finally got interested once more info became available or because her team is getting closer to being discovered, I honestly have no idea.

Jingle thinks tchill is scum, I agree. He disappeared and we still haven't been answered regarding who he supposedly hid behind last night. And now we're waiting on a replacement. Who knows what will happen there. I believe that's a great and viable lynch slot for today.

Dunnstral is all kinds of wtf for me. No idea. Could lynch. Whatever.

Don't know on Kokichi.

Alchemist and pmatt both town imo.

And that's all I've got. These are my personal reads. Both Jingle and I have been super busy lately and haven't had a chance all last week or over the weekend to really connect on anything. So.. take that as you will.

ETL

p-edit: Too much shit to read, more ego-boosting, blah blah. I'll read later. I do have to get back to work now.

[Impossibear]

Why not lynch dave and vig wraith? Everyone happy

Oh yeah wraith. I've had a scumread on that slot since D1.

[Impossibear]

And Ramcius seems like.. lynchbait townie tbh.

Who else have I missed?

[Impossibear]

So if you follow my logic on why Dave should be lynched then we are lynching Dave yes?

Just because I follow the logic doesn't mean I believe it is sound given the other information ITT. As far as who we are lynching, to be quite honest with you, I don't care and I was done making any arguments for who we should lynch as of end of D1.

Whoever gets to L-1, gets our hammer. So if this is the lynch you want, you gotta work for it. I have no say here.

ETL

[Impossibear]

Bear are you a BP vig? If so I now understand why you're conflicted

Yes, if you missed that - we are bulletproof. So the scum team has two options - if they have a strongman, they need to use it on us to get rid of us, or attempt to get us lynched, and that makes perfect sense to me theme-wise. Our BP is why Jingle believes the scumteam does indeed have a strongman role, as it would be pretty unfair otherwise.

So if you follow my logic on why Dave should be lynched then we are lynching Dave yes?

Just because I follow the logic doesn't mean I believe it is sound given the other information ITT. As far as who we are lynching, to be quite honest with you, I don't care and I was done making any arguments for who we should lynch as of end of D1.

Whoever gets to L-1, gets our hammer. So if this is the lynch you want, you gotta work for it. I have no say here.

ETL

So let me get this straight:

You scumread Ouroboros and townread us yet you’re giving what we say equal credence to someone who you think killed you? Am I understanding you correctly?

If you were here on D1, you'd have a better idea of why I'm not bothering to make any strong arguments right now. I'm not interested in further abuse from a specific slot in this game.

[Impossibear]

So let me get this straight:

You scumread Ouroboros and townread us yet you’re giving what we say equal credence to someone who you think killed you? Am I understanding you correctly?

To be perfectly clear, we had them as our strongest townread on D1. That read has gotten murkier throughout this day. I'm maintaining they are likely town for the time being. I believe whatever today's flip is will hopefully give us more of an idea on their alignment, as well as any actions that resolve over the night phase. I'm basically reserving our read until we have more information. My personal paranoias and speculation, aside.

p-edit: Yes, that's true.

[Impossibear]

So you're saying that if a strongman was used it has to be dave or MWNN that got hit.
That is...

IF a strongman was used

.

This is my only issue with the argument. If I were scum with a strongman, I'd know there was a BP in play, and wait for the BP claim before using it. That's just me. Depending on how smart the team is, they may or may not have thought about that. If Ouroboros is on the scumteam, they definitely thought about that.

pedit - what they said

[Impossibear]

strongman could also imply the existence of a doctor and they'd use it to take down ouroboros or me.

Yes, that was another idea we had, and this theory does support OTM's drive here.

[Impossibear]

We Lynch Dave then vig Wraith to demonstrate RC’s alignment.

I still don't follow this conclusion. Like, I get that you're saying RC is scum because defying the Dave wagon, but that's RC. Dave isn't his preferred lynch, so of course he's going to defy it. How is that alignment indicative? It's basically the same exact argument he had with us yesterday, because we defied the vent lynch thinking they were town.

Talk to me about Wraith flip > RC alignment.

[Impossibear]

Wraith is a good shot regardless though

[Impossibear]

Explain?

RC hasn't informed me of why he scum reads Wraith.

RC should probably inform everyone about Wraith just in general.... but for me, there are several reasons he's a good shot:

1) low content/lurker - low information lynch. better to force players to pick sides publicly on a high-profile lynch that yields a high amount of information for analysis, which can be used to help PRs select optimal targets.
2) general scumminess in what little content is there. Most of it sounds forced and fake.
3) PR hunting:

there is only a pool of 10 players that have strong positive PRs.

Here is the post I made directed at Ouroboros on D1, which was ignored, and when I was told I had a shitty thought process and I'm bad for thinking Wraith is scum...

Almost forgot, might as well elaborate on why I find this post very suspicious, because why not

This was re: post 427. I have several issues with this.

1) Saying "Very suspicious post" directed at a player that Ouroboros just voted, without any reasoning, or any vote for that matter, is just really really scummy.

2) Ouro is clearly the universal townread here, I don't really think there's any argument there, and Wraith comes in and sees that, and follows along to appear townie and to avoid Ouro's suspicion.

3) This post in particular comes off very fake to me, like it was an afterthought, like, oh I better explain myself before I cop heat for it. It's a survivalist mentality rather than simply providing his thoughts.

4) The content itself is not only vague but generalized. For instance:

He uses some rather absurd leaps in logic in two separate cases to paint a narrative picture about these two players, deliberately ignoring Occam's Razor in favor of stirring up WIFOM.

- What was the leap in logic?
- Which two cases? Where is the example?
- What is the narrative he is painting?
- What is the assumption regarding Occam's Razor here?
- What is the WIFOM?

It's a bunch of buzzwords thrown in to look busy.

What is more likely? That TChill is running a Jester gambit? Or that TChill is fakeclaiming?

He tries to make it look like these are the only two possibilities for tchill; it's a false dichotomy.

And after we get the VC I might consider switching my vote right now.

There was literally a VC two posts prior. Why does he need the VC? Why the feigned caution on a 2-man wagon?

I'll stay where I am for now but I'm definitely down to switch to a Vent wagon if it gains traction compared to a TChill wagon.

And this? It's D1, with 11 days left. This is just gross to me. We're not even close to that point in the game where compromise votes/wagons are a consideration.

Ouroboros

I need you to look at this slot please.

ETL

[Impossibear]

Whenever people oppose lynches I see red on I find it impossible not to see every distraction as scum motivated or stupid.

Sorry if my approach D1 upset you.

i appreciate this. i'm sorry i reacted poorly.

[Impossibear]

Well if this game is going to be solved by PRs I guess I might not even bother trying to solve it.

no we need you. otherwise how can PRs be effective if we don't discuss?

[Impossibear]

you're townreading maria?

[Impossibear]

Why not lynch dave and vig wraith? Everyone happy

Oh yeah wraith. I've had a scumread on that slot since D1.

Wow we could be on the same wagon this is amazing

Get literally any wagon to L-1 and I promise to join.

This is not a joke, btw. I will hammer any wagon that reaches L-1. This is because I do not want to risk someone stealing my hammer and making all of the hoops we had to jump through useless. This means that functionally, the lynch threshold is 8 and we don't have a vote, so claims and such should happen at L-2.

I'm gonna go read the thread now.

[Impossibear]

^ Jingle

[Impossibear]

Why not lynch dave and vig wraith? Everyone happy

I am okay with this if Dave flips town.

If Dave flips scum please vig RC.

Can everyone agree to this

Nope. Regardless of flips, I will not be vigging RC tonight. He's basically 200% in the same headspace I am at the moment. Also, we will not be chaining the vig this game, because of the whole "There's a scum protective role according to my role PM" aspect of my role. I will not be crumbing my vig shots. If conftown, functional conftown, or literally anyone else would like to suggest who I should vig, they may do so, but I'll probably completely ignore those posts so as not to broadcast where the scum protective should be.

Bear are you a BP vig? If so I now understand why you're conflicted

Full BP modified vig. Also, our role PM came with a big button that when pressed caused GiF's avatar to reach out from the screen and shake us violently while yelling "Scum have a way to interfere with your vigshot." hence, there's a scum protective role.

The guilty is interesting, worthy of note, worth pursuing, and not worth dropping scumhunting for the rest of the day over. RC is completely right that Kaede's list of other options is too extensive to treat it as a hard guilty. He's also right that if it IS a hard guilty, that will probably come out in the wash over the next few dayphases and that OTM's paranoia about NEEDING to lynch that TODAY is not necessary. Rational, logical and completely reasonable, but not necessary. Between our slot, your slot, Kaede, and Ouro all expressing that he won't make it to LYLO if there isn't further hard evidence, attempting to stifle scumhunting and counterwagons to push through the lynch isn't necessary. He will be resolved.

With that said, the following wagons have my approval for pushing today, even if not all of them are active scumreads of our hydra. Personally, and from a purely mechanical point of view, I think balance lynching Tchill makes for the best lynch. If we vig tonight (and I'm not saying we will or will not), we will be vigging from among this pool and the scumreads of our strongest townreads.

Dave
Wraith
Tchill
Dunn
Maria

[Impossibear]

He can be scum and be genuinely confused about the vig thing....

Not really, remember as i said, that Vent's post were doctored in the scum PT and this was proven and that's how he got lynched. This means that this scumteam is being very careful to post the right things.

They were only doctored at one point in the game when he was under massive pressure, the entire game didn't have to be doctored.

Come on.

For the record, and as soon to be locktown, I'm not even sure they were doctored at that point.

His entire twilight reaction reeked of "You caught me for the wrong reasons!"

[Impossibear]

~Jingle

[Impossibear]

I am a vig. I am BP. I am telling you I won't let dave live to see LYLO.

If my kill on dave fails on whichever night I choose to target him, we will policy the fuck out of that.

If I die to a strongman, it becomes more imperative, but there is still a list of three other players who are all nigh on confirmed town levels who have agreed he doesn't live until LYLO.

If town is too dysfunctional to get that lynch through, we've already lost this game.

I'm not saying don't push the lynch. I'm saying it's not a 100% guilty and stifling counterwagons is very meh right now.

[Impossibear]

Stifle the paranoia for now, Kaede. RC is both acting town and working well with others. We reward this behavior by taking the opportunity to work with him. If you punish him for being a good member of town (read: everything since his birthday) then you're part of the problem when he feels he needs to be toxic to play.

If the paranoia doesn't go away AND he's still alive for no reason in the late game, then you start dealing with BoP and that. But right now? This is exactly when we give him the opportunity to be civilized. Because if he plays like this everyone engages more, we get better reads, and HE'S INCENTIVIZED TO PLAY LIKE THIS LATER TOO.

[Impossibear]

OTM is without a doubt town.

Different reasoning, same conclusion.

OTM doesn't rush to fill the thread with reads if they believe they're getting modkilled. OTM believed they were being modkilled. Thus, OTM is town.

[Impossibear]

ETL posted her reasoning on wraith scum a while back. Otherwise I'm stepping back and letting other people develop wagons

~Jingle

[Impossibear]

the resistance on the dunnstral wagon is telling.

No it isnt.

The resistance to the Dave one is because there is evidence and a case.

I know right? It's like people are being forced to take stances based on arguments that we can then use to read them. This is literally the worst.

Ank, Ram, and alchemist need my attention too.
I appreciate that several townies have decided that rushing to martyr me is a bad idea. A couple days to work on these reads would be nice, please and thanks.

You're welcome.

[Impossibear]

I approve of dunnstral wagon

ETL

[Impossibear]

Welp, back to being an unrepentant lurker.

This is fun, I should play this way more often.

~Jingle

[Impossibear]

Realmen is responsible for the quest that will purportedly daycop us tomorrow. If this doesn't actually happen, it'll be obvious.

Wilky claimed slowcop miller, I can find exact posts if necessary.

Maria, you are hard claiming that you targeted Dunn and got a result that implies town in whatever format your individual clear would take? I specifically don't want more than that. Just that you targeted Dunn, and got whatever would be clearing as a hard claim that you cannot back down from.

Because I do not see GiF making a game with 4 conftown and three pseudo conftown D3. Especially with as many ways to fuck with the kill as we've already shown. While you could theoretically balance such a game, doing so would require punishing town for reasonable conclusions and no experienced mod should do that without explicit warnings. (Off of the top of my head, giving scum 3 nightkills, a factional godfather that applies to all of their players, or like 7 players is all that comes up without delving into the horribly bastard. And none of those are reasonable game design without telling us before hand.)

I'm totes fine with shortening the lynch pool to Dave/Tchill and massclaiming/mechanically solving claims tomorrow at this point.

Assuming Kaede is alive tomorrow, as the only player fully above suspicion she should control massclaim order. I propose that anyone who has not hardclaimed PR do so. Then, Kaede chooses a claim order and we evaluate from there. Assuming RMOJ is proven to have daycopped us, he should probably go last.

Objections?

[Impossibear]

Is this right?

As claimed, yes.

Worth noting is that the existence of the quest was modconfirmed, but not the substance.

[Impossibear]

I want neither davessz nor Tchill I think both are hard town

I want Ramcius/projectmatt. I'll explain in detail tomorrow

I'll wait, but my reasoning is that it seems very likely that 2/3 of remaining scum are in the claimed PR's. We don't lynch the players who are claiming investigative before massclaim so that we get results to consider, but neither dave nor tchill add anything to the game mechanically, and both need to be resolved before LYLO. Resolving them today gives us more theoretical information to work with when working through claims, and doesn't risk fucking with our results.

Also, I don't want any discussion about whether or not claims are believable until massclaim. We don't need to give scum pointers on who to kill.

[Impossibear]

RC gets his day for case, btw. If anyone puts someone to L-1 before he posts a case and before Wednesday, I'll consider it a scumclaim. I'll still hammer, but I'll consider it a scumclaim.

[Impossibear]

ITT Mark posts and doesn't show me why the claim is town

Can I do it so this line of questioning ends?

The claim itself doesn't say shit. Mark continuing the claim after hebi made it doesn't say shit.

The fact that all it took was me mentioning the word 'modkill' and he jumped into panic I'm going to die let me get my reads out mode instead of oh fuck, I'm confirmed scum I need to not spew scumbuddies mode makes OTM painfully town. In order for it to be possible for OTM scum, you'd have to show how that could be fake. And I think it's fairly obviously not. This isn't a case of the mod spewing OTM town, or hebi spewing OTM town, but OTM spewing OTM town because of faulty assumptions.

Now, if me and OTM are scumbuddies, I could obviously have planned this and that all goes to null. But that requires me scum, and that's pretty laughable at this point.

Additionally, the claim and confusion makes sense with the progression immediately before it. And anyone who thinks the stubbornness is at all scum indicative from OTM should probably just go sit in the corner and think about what they've done.

OTM. There are alternatives to dave being the person who made the nightkill last night that make sense. In the words of a particular cowbells "The roleblock does not constitute a guilty." This is roughly the same in my mind as someone coming out with a gunsmith guilty on a player who then claims vig. Interesting, worth considering, and not worth going into shut up and lynch mode. Dave doesn't get to live until LYLO unless ridiculous shenanigans

prove

him to be town. But he doesn't need to be lynched TODAY. He needs to be lynched AT SOME POINT.

I understand that you're paranoid that he will slip through the cracks. But look at the identities of, alignments of, and the combined skill levels of the players saying he gets resolved before LYLO. Now is not the time to make this into a screaming match. There are at least 2 town who have promised you this doesn't go away, confirmed, from your PoV counting you. There's me, who will be as close to conftown as we're likely to get outside of Kaede tomorrow DISREGARDING MY PLAY ENTIRELY. There's RC, who is at best a tinfoil hat scumread atm.

Step back from the fight, and look at the other options. Sure, assume dave is scum. There's still two more scum to find, and you're right that you're likely on the chopping block for the night kill tonight. What do you think about Tchill? What do you think about project matt? Wraith?

My reads are wrong somewhere: I don't know where. I can't solve this game alone and I don't think I'll be alive long enough to get any more information.

Sigh.

Confirmation: You explicitly agree with me that we have too much power claimed, correct? If so, we're probably working with only one scum in the pool of unclaimed players, 2 on the outside. Your project_matt case is pretty compelling (Not enough that I'm interested in sheeping there, yet, but definitely food for thought.) Me and ETL agree that Ram is probably just really lynchbaity. Is there anyone in the pool you've got a confident townread on?

[Impossibear]

People who have not yet claimed a role/useful role.

We have too much power claimed and a flipped scum. That means strong townreads outside of the claimed power roles are disproportionally more likely to be accurate.

[Impossibear]

Yeah, lemme find the google doc.

[Impossibear]

No claims:

Alch
Ram
Ank
You
ProjMatt
Kokichi
Wraith
Dunn

Strictly negative Utility:

Dave

[Impossibear]

If dave is scum, that implies that only one of those 8 can be scum in my book.

Certainly no more than two, barring wonky scumteam sizes.

[Impossibear]

Kaede- IC
Jungle- Weird Joat
Wilky- Miller Slow Cop
Maria- Some Kind of Investigative
OTM- Weird RB
Tchill- Non weak hider
Us- BP Vig w/ unspecified modifier

Flipped: Ability Swapper

For setup spec reference, cause I'm gonna want pun to do the same thing when they get their ass in here.

Here's a question to all the people who are certain that Tchill is scum.

Of all the potential scum slots, why does scum decide to give the one that gives investigave immunity to Tchill of all people?

Point.

Okay. Let me break this down to people who can be assumed town for today, but I just realized I have to leave shortly, so that's about as far as I'm going to get.

[Impossibear]

Town:
Kaede Akamatsu
OnTheMark
Ankamius
Ouroboros (AnonymousGhost + RadiantCowbells)
Ramcius
Alchemist21

Off Table for Today:
Wilky- PR
MariaR- PR
Impossibear (EspeciallyTheLies + Jingle)- PR
REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE- PR
Dunnstral- Unclaimed

davesaz- NEG UTIL
punreader- PR
Kokichi Oma- Unclaimed
projectmatt- Unclaimed
Wraith- Unclaimed

Okay, so presumably there's three scum in those 10 players. I'm including myself because you can't discount me until the clear comes back. I'll be back to make sweeping truths later, but there should be a 1:2 split among the two groups in that pile. (Could be backwards, but I doubt it).

Hopefully, that's enough grounding for the people struggling with scumhunting to start looking for suspects, comparing interactions with Vent. Let me be the rock tying you to the game for now, because lord knows it's one of my two talents as town.

[Impossibear]

If someone wants to dispute the inclusion of a name in a group, I'll be happy to talk about it when I get back.

[Impossibear]

Lynch the everliving fuck out of it and put me in the "can't live til LYLO pile".

If that was a reaction test, he should have retracted a week ago when it became a giant distraction to the thread. There is no town reason to continue the gambit after he sees my reaction.

[Impossibear]

Also probably confirms Wilky and Maria as town based on CC and balance.

[Impossibear]

Kokichi is maybe town.

Nero was a gut townread based off of a game from like 4 years ago.

I'm married to neither of those.

Also worth noting, Ank has triggered just about every buddying and complaining klaxon in my head, but both you and ETL say town so I'm swallowing that.

[Impossibear]

two town millers.

Not "two millers", two "town millers". Noted.

VC 1.01

Ventriloquist (2):

davesaz, hebichan

Ouroboros (1):

Alchemist21

Nero Cain (1):

Impossibear

Tchill13 (1):

verylazy

Kaede Akamatsu (1):

Dunnstral

MariaR (1):

Ramcius

davesaz (1):

wilky

wilky (5):

Ouroboros,

Kaede Akamatsu

,

ManWithNoName

, MariaR, Ankamius

WOW. There is

DEFINITELY

scum in this group. Make this the short-list for D1 lynch or N1 investigations.

Since I've no intention to read the vast majority of D2, I would like to ask ETL if these stances still hold.

Sure.

[Impossibear]

WHERE IS REAL MEN ONLY JUNGLE??

ETL

[Impossibear]

WOW.

[Impossibear]

hi

I haven't gone anywhere so you better not flake out.

[Impossibear]

wilky (1):

Tchill13

Ramcius (5):

wilky, Ankamius, projectmatt, Kaede Akamatsu

Tchill13 (3):

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE, davesaz, Wraith

davesaz (2):

Kokichi Oma, OnTheMark,

Dunnstral (1):

Alchemist21

Wraith (1):

Ramcius

Kokiri (3):

Ouroboros, MariaR, Dunnstral,

Not Voting:

Impossibear

With

16

alive,

9

to lynch

Deadline: (expired on 2018-05-27 22:26:54)

punreader is tchill replacement. let him catch up. but he's not the focal point of today's lynch.

I think ramcius is lynchbait town. davesaz push makes sense from townOTM perspective, also makes sense from scumOTM perspective. I prefer not to lynch either today and allow night actions to resolve them. (yeah yeah

"but mechaniiiiiiiiiiics bleeeeeh"

don't care, they exist so I'm not gonna ignore them) Mmmm I actually like pun's process here. Looks like he's actively trying to squeeze the most amount of valid analysis he can from the points of action he knows will yield it. So, no there.

Wraith is a cool lynch. Kokiri. Dunnstral. Yeah, that's about it. Those 3 are good choices for today imo.

So can we get a move on?

Clearly people need more information before they can be sure of anything. We are approaching the time when failing to fulfill the quest is a serious concern.

ETL

[Impossibear]

Wraith is a cool lynch. Kokiri. Dunnstral. Yeah, that's about it. Those 3 are good choices for today imo.

I'd also include maria but jingle doesn't want so...

[Impossibear]

kokichi can die

seems like wraith is the only scumread both you and rc agree on

There are others. He was kind of all over last night/yesterday but overall reads

seem

mostly logical and match with most of ours.

Ouroboros - what do you think?

Can the thread consolidate on one of these {wraith/kokihi/dunnstral}?

I think in order of preference for me would be dunnstral, kokichi, wraith in terms of what I feel more strongly about but I'm fine with any of these.

[Impossibear]

Can you take a look at my preference and tell me your thoughts? (Kokichi, Punreader, Wilky)

I like what pun's doing but wouldn't fight a lynch there. Wilky I agree with Jingle that he needs to be left for at least one day and we can even lynch him tomorrow. My personal read on his slot has been town since the CC and mechanics/claims aside, the whole way that went down makes it hard for me to consider him as a possibility for scum. I don't think Jingle feels as strongly at all - he just wants to wait a day.

[Impossibear]

Because not cooperating is suicide

But also we're obvtown, so get with the program already. I'm also the only one defending your asinine nonsense at the moment. You want to lose your only ally?

[Impossibear]

@Bear

- Okay. I can wait on a Wilky lynch.

In order, I'd prefer Kokicki first (today), then TChill/Pun, and then Wilky.

This is subject to change provided two things: one, the flips and two, that our slot actually lives to tomorrow.

Ghost

I'm great with this. I think Jingle would be too.

[Impossibear]

@ghost

That theory makes sense to me. The way the flip was phrased it seemed to me like the player himself would just need to send a PM to the mod, not anyone else. I'm assuming you'd want your partners' permissions but he could do it without them I suppose the way it's worded.

Except he was building this by hand.

He had to intentionally type 5 not 4.

It’s not a copy pasta.

*sigh*

I used GIF's last VC. Moved all the names around. Fixed counts when I was done.

I mean, if I was scum, having the quest fail would be in my favor, correct? Do you agree with that logic? So why would I even bother with a VC when I could just let votes go on blindly?

But beyond all that, I'm scum because typo? I don't really know you but based on your posting since replacing in, I'm confident you are smarter than this.

Also I'm a she, but I don't generally care.

ETL

[Impossibear]

However there is sole survivor or just survival which is a common theme in Fallout.

Literally those are aligned with the commonwealth. I'm not gonna bother responding to anymore nonsense from you about how we're scum because we're objectively not.

Do something more productive.

ETL

[Impossibear]

I am sorry. I should be better than that with gender pronouns.

I specifically don't put it on my profile. It may sound strange even on MS but people treat me like I'm dumb when they don't know me and it says "she" on there.

[Impossibear]

Forgot I was on a hydra account and it says "they"

[Impossibear]

So, just fyi - this is our month end week and I'm stupid busy at work (accounting). I want to be here but I really shouldn't be here. Jingle will probably be around soon, but I'm essentially V/LA for the next 5 days.

ETL

[Impossibear]

The mafia cannot have power roles when the town has a limited supply. To compensate for the power of the mafia roles, the town would thus need a significant number of power roles. Most of the game in fact. In an 18 player 4-scum game with all goons, you can expect the town to need about five strong power roles (we are talking ungated vigilante levels of strong), or about 7 weaker power roles. That is for a punteam without power. Give all the pun power roles, then suddenly you're looking at a figure of 7 stronger power roles (full ungated vig, strong) or about 10-12 weaker ones. 10-12/14 total town members.

How does this align with the added consideration of confirmable roles, unkillable semiconfirmable roles, and the heavy implication from our role PM that one of the scum roles is intentionally designed to fuck with our role specifically?

I can attest that pun's setup spec is likely accurate, regardless of their alignment, from a purely theoretical standpoint btw. If I'd have to, I'd say they're probably slightly worse at speccing individual roles than me, but significantly more in tune to the modern belief of balance re: how much power town needs.

Also, do you agree with taking the specific names off of the lynch table for today that I specified earlier?



Dunn has a soft inno result of some variety from Maria, btw, and is thus a terrible wagon for today. Tomorrow? Sure. Not today though.

[Impossibear]

VOTE: Punreader

Wraith is correct when they say there hasn’t been a case on them (earlier this Day I asked at least twice for a case and got ignored), and I have reasons for Townreading them.

ETL posted one earlier, I think. Not sure how much of it I agree with (I've been at best ambivalent to most of this game.) but I do remember she referenced the PR hunting I pointed out in our hydra thread early D1.

I'll be on in roughly 3 hours to hammer if someone's at L-1. Otherwise, I'll see you all tomorrow.

[Impossibear]

@ETL this will seem like a strange question but bear with me. Jingle get ETL here just to answer this question if possible.
do you remember when I made a reference involving Maestro's name that he didn't get but you did on minecraft?

Gosh that must have been years ago lol... I don't remember though. I have probably the worst memory of anyone. I don't remember what I wore yesterday.

[Impossibear]

Why would you have to submit? Isn’t it just his quest? *feels sketchy*

It's HIS QUEST. He gave it to US. Since it's HIS role he likely has to be the one who submits required stuff for it.

Also wanted to address why you're assuming as fact that Ouro would have been shot N1 but I don't care anymore. If you have to make more than twice the number of assumptions as facts to reach a conclusion, the conclusion will be nonsense.

ETL

[Impossibear]

Until you prove you’re a BP you’re not.

Ok. How can we "prove" such a thing other than flipping when we die? Like.. you're being ridiculous. But we're supposed to just take your word that you're a RB who blocked Dave last night, right?

Why should we do that for you if you are so unwilling to work with the information available?

[Impossibear]

By having no kills overnight or by having two kills overnight.

That doesn't prove the BP part dude... only proves we're a vig.

Doesn't matter. Don't care to argue with someone who is completely unable to understand simple logic. I will only get frustrated. And I really shouldn't even have logged on here from work today. Bye.

[Impossibear]

By the way, RC has neatly put me into a complete catch-22. If I fight against being lynched today, I am scum fighting to survive the Day phase. If I enthusiastically endorse my lynch, I am signalling my "scumbuddies" to bus me, and tomorrow RC will tunnel people who "bussed" me.

This is a scumslip.

[Impossibear]

1: I'm the hammer vote, so...

2: Why is RC going to tunnel people who bussed you if you flip town?

[Impossibear]

Accurate. He's also voting himself.

Wraith (6): Ramcius, Ouroboros, Kaede Akamatsu, OnTheMark, Dunnstral, Wraith

[Impossibear]

You could always do what I do. Get a hydra partner and then make them do all the work while pretending to help. I mean... I'm totally doing useful mafia things in this game. Like, lynching people, or something?

[Impossibear]

We should hold off on the last vote for Jungle to clarify that I can go ahead and hammer. I'm confused by his statement that he needed to 'submit' the wagon to GiF.

[Impossibear]

So, uhhh. Anyone heard any good jokes? All of my good ones are either shaggy dog stories or potentially offensive.

[Impossibear]

Aight. I'm out for the night. I'll be back to hammer tomorrow.

Hopefully Jungle will have confirmed that I can hammer by then.

:sigh: This quest is tedious.

[Impossibear]

Well, tbf, the wagon's not going through because Jungle needs to get his ass in here and tell me I'm not wasting all of the time we spent on nonsense this dayphase.

The scumslip did kinda put a nail in the coffin.

[Impossibear]

By the way, RC has neatly put me into a complete catch-22. If I fight against being lynched today, I am scum fighting to survive the Day phase. If I enthusiastically endorse my lynch, I am signalling my "scumbuddies" to bus me, and tomorrow RC will tunnel people who "bussed" me.

This is a scumslip.

[Impossibear]

Again, no votes till Jungle can confirm we didn't waste time on the daycop shit, please and thank you.

[Impossibear]

By the way, RC has neatly put me into a complete catch-22. If I fight against being lynched today, I am scum fighting to survive the Day phase. If I enthusiastically endorse my lynch, I am signalling my "scumbuddies" to bus me, and

tomorrow RC will tunnel people who "bussed" me.

The bolded is the scumslip.

He's claiming that tomorrow, RC is going to make the claim that people who joined his wagon late were just bussing. Which is, of course, ATF, (and NAI, really).

On the other hand, it is impossible for RC to push anyone on the basis of bussing a flipped town player. You can't bus town. Hence, he is assuming himself to be scum. Hence, scumslip.

Hence.
VOTE: Wraith

[Impossibear]

RC's probably bussing, btw.

[Impossibear]

It's already been broughten.

[Impossibear]

This is not a cheerocracy. Besides, the wifom might keep you alive.

[Impossibear]

Yeah.... So first of all,

VOTE: Jungle

I was gonna post more things, but I think I need to talk to ETL first.

Night yall.

[Impossibear]

Actually, Maria can't be faking tracker, so keeping cards close to the chest is unimportant.

We didn't shoot last night, FWIW.

Let's get this party starter.

[Impossibear]

The protagonist can't die! That would never happen!

Kaede isn't the protagonist.

She's either the Gandalf or the Strider of this story. We pretty much know all there is to know about her. She's a good guy here to lead the protagonist on the quest and keep them from falling off the path on the way. She may or may not be murdered at some point, leaving us to flail about before finding our way again. She doesn't have the growth and progression of information about her that any good protagonist has.

L2Storytelling.

My reads, as drunk as I am, are as follows.

Everyone saying we should lynch maria today is dumb. ETL needs to read the post I just put into our hydra PT and make sure I'm logicing good, then post that.

OTM, Alch, Kaede all trustworthy.

Ank is trustworthy according to ETL, which is fine for me.

PunTChillReader is probably town by reasoning of the thingy that RC pointed out.

Dunn flip is damning for Maria if he's scum with an active power, meaning of the two he's the better lynch. I'm not especially concerned with lynching Dunn atm.

Jungle needs to die, as someone pointed out in 3210.

~Jingle

[Impossibear]

Alchemist

I'm here now sorta.

ETL

[Impossibear]

Well Jungle's role is confirmed by the mod, although as of this point, it's no better than a public fruit vendor.
Assuming with the information we have it is indeed that, why let the bodyswapper die with vent D1?

Hey Kaede - I skimmed when I could over the weekend but am super confused on most of this day so far. Can you help me catch up/sort out what has happened today?

Like, I caught that Jungle is saying he submitted the wrong name - my question basically is why that was allowed as a "failure" on his role by the mod rather than say, "oh yeah I meant this", if I'm understanding how his role was meant to be used. Also what do you mean that it is confirmed by the mod, but as a fruit vendor?

ETL

[Impossibear]

Ouroboros received a quest to help out the settlements!

@Dunn - I'm assuming this, as this is the only mod confirmation that the role even exists.

[Impossibear]

Does the scumteam decide to just go on a WIFOM chase after losing someone Day 1 though?

The answer would depend on the team I guess. SOP would dictate we lynch the crap out of Jungle, which I think Jingle wants to do.

I don't particularly want to as I think it's a town role, with town flavor, from a player who's been playing pretty town-ly, in my opinion. My only problem is that I've been wrong this entire game so *shrug* I have no faith in my own reads anymore.

ETL

[Impossibear]

Ok, thanks so much - that's perfect.

I dislike the poison theory - that's not really a thing in FO, especially not for the Institute - they use energy weapons, (laser rifles, mostly) I understand the thought process but it doesn't fit for me. I agree with your other questions though.

So, who wants to help me get my head on straight again? Here's where I'm at, starting from scratch:

Wilky

- claimed miller slow-cop, blocked N2
I thought this was town. D3 has me questioning that if OTM is to be believed in that he blocked Dave instead. Or Scum have a block of some sorts as well.

hebichan/OnTheMark

- claimed roleblocker plus, blocked Dave N1, Dave N2
hebichan gave me scum vibes. OTM is.. OTM. so.... no idea.

Kaede Akamatsu

- mod confirmed IC
yep.

MariaR

- claimed ??? supposed did some scout thing on Dunn, got neighborized with a group track on

???

pmatt
scum vibes here. willfully denying information, being pretty cagey about it too, unless i've missed something. i think the scout thing was a bad fake-y something or other. i'd lynch this. but not today.

Maria should target us or OTM tonight and reveal results tomorrow as that would effectively give us a 2-person pool of conf-town or 1 in 2 of conf-scum.

edit add-in: with the new info that they tracked projectmatt, I could absolutely see a Maria/projectmatt partnership. how does that reason with vent? would really like to hear more about how that decision was made. also what about N2? they tracked pmatt N1? or did they only get the track N2?

Ramcius

I still think this is lynchbait town.

Ankamius

I forget

Tchill13/punreader

- claimed non-weak hider
? I think bullshit. I should probably reread Pun's stuff.

Dunnstral

no idea.

verylazy/Kokichi Oma

no idea.

davesaz

- claimed miller vaniller, blocked by OTM N1, N2
???? I thought town. His posts on D2 though were crap and gave me bad vibes.

Alchemist21

very town, still very town

Nero Cain/projectmatt

???? no idea

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE

- claimed preston garvey, quest giver
i thought town. still think town

[Impossibear]

^ ETL

[Impossibear]

I don't blame you, I'm pretty easy to forget

I'm sorry. It's not you, it's me. I don't really know where to begin at this point. And I don't have the motivation to reread everyone's ISO.

ETL

[Impossibear]

Why don't you help me out though - can you give me your thoughts on these? More than one sentence would be preferable so I can get a good idea of where your head is

1) Where do you stand on Maria's claims, the track choice, etc.?

2) Same q. re: Jungle, and his "blunder".

3) OTM supposedly blocking the same person twice, tunnelling on Dave, etc.?

4) Wilky.

5) Dave's reaction to OTM wanting to lynch him all D2.

ETL

p-edit:

@Ank

[Impossibear]

Impossibear — Why does your slot want to follow SOP for Jungle and not Dave?

I don't.

[Impossibear]

I'd already agreed with you that SOP would indicate we should lynch Dave, but that logic and reason indicated we shouldn't.

Being too literal and following SOP to the letter is a one-way ticket to town loss. You have to be able to understand when and when not to apply SOP. Mafia isn't about black and white. It's a communication game, and you have to be able to read nuance.

[Impossibear]

SOP would dictate we lynch the crap out of Jungle, which I think Jingle wants to do.

I don't particularly want to

Also reading the words helps.

[Impossibear]

This feels very very wrong.

If there has to be nuance with Dave there has to be nuance with Jungle.
If there isn’t nuance with Dave then there isn’t nuance with Jungle.

Please stop being dumb.

Not sure how many times I've said the same thing - I townread Dave, I townread Jungle, I didn't and don't want to lynch either.

Where is the disconnect?

[Impossibear]

What is SOP?

SOP = Standard Operating Procedure. Like, a "rule of thumb".

[Impossibear]

Alchemist

I'm here now sorta.

ETL

There’s no subtle way to ask this, so I’m just gonna ask. What do you think that Party Starter I sent implies for OTM’s alignment?

ohhhhh... that's a good question. I didn't even make that connection. I will discuss with Jingle - he's much better at thinking along those lines.

[Impossibear]

5) Dave's reaction to OTM wanting to lynch him all D2.

It's called town thinking that this game is lost if someone doesn't pull their head out of their ass.

Yeah, so my problem here is basically that because I only know you outside of mafia, I only know your "other" internet personality, and this doesn't match it.

I'm inclined to think that people are more likely to match their true personalities when they are town, and more likely to exhibit bravado as scum.

[Impossibear]

The difference is every question asked to you had Jungle as a possible scumspect and that you’re going through with this one despite not wanting to and didn’t go through with the Dave one despite not wanting to. Again what is the difference?

???? If we're voting Jungle, it's because Jingle did it. You do realize Impossibear is a hydra with two people, and the ETL half has repeatedly clarified to you the same things over and over and yet you still don't seem to understand that ETL and Jingle are two different people?

It looks like you’re going out of your way to avoid calling Jungle scum while pointing out scummy things.

Who shoots you? Jungle or RCdra.
RCdra is dead and confirmed town.

?? I don't think either?? Prior to RC-flip I'd have bet on RC shooting us if they were scum. Jingle is the one who thought Jungle was a second possibility. He's the one who wants to lynch him. As I said in my earlier post today, the one I even requoted for you, that you apparently are having a very hard time understanding or even reading.

You’re going out of your way here to say you don’t want it yet your ISO points to that you should.

??? "going out of your way"? You've repeatedly asked me the same dumbass question that I've repeatedly answered the same way and suddenly I'm "going out of my way" to state something you keep asking me?

You are really frustrating to speak with, if only because it seems like you have trouble understanding basic concepts of language, and I really don't have the patience to continue. I've answered the same questions multiple times. If you still don't get it, that is entirely your problem.

[Impossibear]

FTR, playerlist based only:

Likely to shoot our slot:

Jungle>RCdra>random player caught confirmable crumbs.

It's not a hard guilty on Dave or RC, but it is definitely good evidence. We need to reread Dave to make sure you're not wrong there ETL.

Regardless, RC isn't the right play specifically today, because if Jungle is scum RC becomes conftown in my book and we learn that tomorrow based on the quest existing/not existing.

PEdit: Are you saying the mod didn't tell you about previous actions? If so, did you ask if your slot had acted previously?

THIS IS A JINGLE POST.

[Impossibear]

Yet you’re talking about Jungle town because of the quest failing.

No....? Where did I say he's town because the quest failed? Please quote that.

I said I felt he was town by play.

Does the scumteam decide to just go on a WIFOM chase after losing someone Day 1 though?

The answer would depend on the team I guess. SOP would dictate we lynch the crap out of Jungle, which I think Jingle wants to do.

I don't particularly want to as I think it's a town role, with town flavor, from a player who's been playing pretty town-ly, in my opinion. My only problem is that I've been wrong this entire game so *shrug* I have no faith in my own reads anymore.

ETL

Like.. jesus christ..

FUCKING READ MAYBE???

Stop bothering me with idiotic questions that have already been answered. In the same damn post no less, the same post you continually ignore.

[Impossibear]

I fell like we should shoot OTM just because.

[Impossibear]

Have you noticed my Minecraft tendency to avoid dying at all costs? I'm the guy who doesn't go to the nether before I have flight of some kind if it can be helped.

I can't say that I've noticed this one way or the other tbh... so I don't know. But that's only how you would react in a self-preservationist position. If you are vanilla as you said, this inclination

should

be lessened.

Extend that to mafia. I may pay lip service to being lynched for the common good (and did in this case btw), but rolling over is not in my nature.

Ok but if you're town, wouldn't getting your flip be beneficial for everyone? I'm just trying to understand the thought process - why you view it as "rolling over" as opposed to "taking one for the team".

[Impossibear]

Why don't you help me out though - can you give me your thoughts on these? More than one sentence would be preferable so I can get a good idea of where your head is

1) Where do you stand on Maria's claims, the track choice, etc.?

2) Same q. re: Jungle, and his "blunder".

3) OTM supposedly blocking the same person twice, tunnelling on Dave, etc.?

4) Wilky.

5) Dave's reaction to OTM wanting to lynch him all D2.

ETL

p-edit:

@Ank

1. It depends on what the motivation overall was. I think the check itself was sketchy, but... I don't necessarily think it's scummy since RC probably had a big hand in deciding the target.

Oh yeah good point. RC was hard-townreading Maria though. Do you think that read allowed Maria to influence RC in any way? (Personally I don't think anyone could influence RC, even a townread, but.. still)

2. eh... It's believable that he's out of it, but I don't really want to judge his response entirely until he pops in and says more. I don't think what I've seen already is enough to decide whether it's derptown or a scum play.

3. 100% normal. It's either town-indicative or NAI, probably the latter.

What's your experience with OTM? Are you saying "100% normal" for majority town players or for OTM specifically?

4. I think the block claim is probably town, actually. He went about it weirdly for a scum gambit.

I think I agree with you here.

5. He's in my PoE list mainly because I don't have an opinion on him either way. He's not a player I can read, generally.

Thanks Ank - appreciate it.

What does your current PoE list look like right now?

ETL

[Impossibear]

4. The only reason scum miller claims is if they expect a town rolecop. The slow cop claim could be fake to avoid getting policy lynched but if it were a fake claim then why not just go ahead and claim an inno?

So are you saying you think wilky is town, then?

ETL

p-edit: ????????? Maria isn't in a hood with dunn. Then who???

[Impossibear]

Ok I think Maria being sketch about the details here when there is so obviously a huge town benefit

is scummy AF

She's posted several times... several opportunities to clarify details, provide town information, etc. She's done none of that at all.

[Impossibear]

I'm inclined to think that people are more likely to match their true personalities when they are town, and more likely to exhibit bravado as scum.

Ha

Also stop fishing Maria, she'll reveal information later

"stop fishing"??? It's been explained already why the information is important. Dragging it out with excuses to provide information is legitimately scummy and you jumping to her defense is scummy.

ETL

[Impossibear]

dunn
maria
pmatt

possibly one of or one replacing:
kokichi, tchill/pun, dave ?

I'm fine with leaving Maria for today. Need to sort the rest definitively.

Kaede, Alchemist

and maybe Ankamius:
Thoughts on kokichi and punreader? and Dunnstral, I guess.

p-edit:

@Maria

Yeah ok but with RC dead, there's no way to trust that you even have another neighbor at all, much less that the neighbor is even town. Like, now that RC is dead, the whole neighborhood can be used to really easily setup a false clear.

Suppose:

If Maria is scum. RC neighborizes Maria. ScumMaria learns all she needs to about how the role works, team kills RC, and use neighborhood mechanics in scum favor thusly -

Next day, RC dead, Maria claims there is another neighbor (who will actually be scum partner). Refuses to say who it is, that is, until we deliver our shot tonight. Next day, asks for massclaim saying that "outing the result before actions have been claimed is useless", then says that so-and-so visited such-n-such, thus "clearing" said partner, who will be claimed that day.

Thus, if Maria is telling the truth, claiming the partner today only risks one of them dying and confirming her claims, should scum decide to shoot that way. Not really a bad trade if you ask me, because it can still clear Maria.

ETL

[Impossibear]

[Impossibear]

Kokichi's 100% town.
punreader nfi

Why is kokichi 100% town? Did I miss something major there?

[Impossibear]

Next day, RC dead, Maria claims there is another neighbor (who will actually be scum partner). Refuses to say who it is, that is, until we deliver our shot tonight.

This also very well explains why Ouroboros is dead today and not yesterday.

ETL

[Impossibear]

I’m really thinking OTM is scum. Probably my most confident scumread at this point. Still would like Jingle’s opinion though.

VOTE: OnTheMark

I don't think so, but I could see it as a very outside possibility.

VOTE: Alchemist21

?? You're kidding right...

Do you have any thoughts about this game that aren't nonsense and made up?

ETL

[Impossibear]

Then you should be scumreading Jungle

Why?

[Impossibear]

Then you should be scumreading Jungle

Why?

Because Jungle is who would shoot you over RC.

Yes this was Jingle's theory. You will have to ask him for the reasoning there. I said I thought if we were shot, it was probably RC because I was tin-foil-hat-scumreading the slot at the time. Are you saying you agree that the only plausible players who would choose to shoot us would be RC or Jungle? << I don't believe this to be a logical idea.

And you never publically disagreed with that assessment and had a long ass time to change it.

"publicly disagree"? He's my hydra partner. I chose him because I trust his reads to compliment my own. We have a PT where we discuss our reads. Why the fuck would I "publicly disagree" with something that doesn't need to be disagreed with? I was townreading Jungle. This has not changed. All of this is accessible in our ISO. None of this has been contradictory. You are failing to do research and coming up with bullshit spam for no reason. Figure out and then get back to me.

I'm not going to continue saying the same things over and over. It's really exhausting and annoying. Until and unless you have something new to talk to me about, I'm ignoring you.

ETL

p-edit: There are multiple settlements in Fallout. All of them are aligned with the commonwealth. All of them are aligned with the sole survivor, who is aligned with the commonwealth. None of them are aligned with the Institute, the Railroad, or even the Minutemen

[Impossibear]

Then you should be scumreading Jungle

Why?

Because Jungle is who would shoot you over RC.

Yes this was Jingle's theory. You will have to ask him for the reasoning there. I said I thought if we were shot, it was probably RC because I was tin-foil-hat-scumreading the slot at the time. Are you saying you agree that the only plausible players who would choose to shoot us would be RC or Jungle? << I don't believe this to be a logical idea.

And you never publically disagreed with that assessment and had a long ass time to change it.

"publicly disagree"? He's my hydra partner. I chose him because I trust his reads to compliment my own. We have a PT where we discuss our reads. Why the fuck would I "publicly disagree" with something that doesn't need to be disagreed with? I was townreading Jungle. This has not changed. All of this is accessible in our ISO. None of this has been contradictory. You are failing to do research and coming up with bullshit spam for no reason. Figure out and then get back to me.

I'm not going to continue saying the same things over and over. It's really exhausting and annoying. Until and unless you have something new to talk to me about, I'm ignoring you.

ETL

p-edit: There are multiple settlements in Fallout. All of them are aligned with the commonwealth. All of them are aligned with the sole survivor, who is aligned with the commonwealth. None of them are aligned with the Institute, the Railroad, or even the Minutemen

[Impossibear]

oh my god you are a liability to town, OTM.

[Impossibear]

Whatever happened to lynching Dave? Are you no longer concerned with that?

[Impossibear]

Nuka Cola expansion has horrible ones that aren’t good aligned.

Minutemen are aligned with the settlements.

No. The minutemen help settlements. The settlements are aligned with the commonwealth (as is the Minutemen, to be fair).

NukaWorld doesn't apply... I have yet to see anything from the DLCs.

[Impossibear]

oh my god you are a liability to town, OTM.

So are you. And you have a gun.

This is laughable.

I'm not the one failing hardcore to understand simple concepts and shitting up the thread with babble about the same crap over and over and continuing to just spew garbage and clutter because I can't parse common sense.

That would be you.

[Impossibear]

Kaede I don't think this continued engagement with OTM is doing the thread any favors, to be honest. They are never ever ever going to concede that they misunderstood something because they don't have the self-awareness to even recognize when it has happened.

[Impossibear]

this lash out against Jungle for making a mistake, and these discredits make me more and more confident Jungle's town.

Do you think OTM is scum here?

I personally think it's just that OTM is having trouble putting things together and making sense of it in a logical fashion. To OTM, anyone who disagrees has an ulterior motive - there is no other explanation in his mind. It is very black and white, which is why explanations on other avenues appear to fall on deaf ears. There are other players on the site who operate this way and it's just difference in thought process. It's frustrating as fuck. But at best it's NAI. I don't know if I see scum fighting this hard for an obviously nonsense argument - if there are least 3 scum left, then scumOTM has 2 partners who can tell them to stop, shift, or adjust. <<< I don't see this happening, so I find it unlikely there are any coaches behind that.

ETL

[Impossibear]

When you’re seriously proposing town has an infinite day cop.

LITERALLY NO ONE IS SAYING THAT.

[Impossibear]

Anyone saying Jingle is town who is daycopping people is

Why do you think this....? Like show your work please, because this makes no sense.

You are the only one who thinks his role works that way...

[Impossibear]

The original quest is claimed to be a daycop. With me so far?

yep. Do you see the last line?

quests changes every night and GIF will tell me what the new quest is

In your mind, what does this mean?

ETL

[Impossibear]

It is either an investigative or it isn’t yes?

The role as a whole or the quest for that day?

If you believe the role as a whole is either an investigative or a non-investigative, I'm going to say you are incorrect in that assumption. A JOAT (Jack of All Trades) can include investigative and non-investigative actions. Jungle's role fits that description.

Now if you are talking about just the quest for the day, yes, ok. That's fine. That still doesn't mean "Jungle is a forever cop". What it means is "Jungle has a cop for that day's quest."

ETL

[Impossibear]

If it is an investigative then you have a continuously copping quest giver which breaks the rule of mafia.

JOAT

If it isn’t an investigative why not give it to Kaede?

Give what to Kaede? The quest? You're asking me why Jungle gave it to us and not Kaede? Or something else?

ETL

[Impossibear]

Jungle should claim what the quest was)

Agree.

2) Kaede has a good chance of dying (Not saying Ouroboros was a better pick, but still)

Same for N1. IC is generally the first kill if there is an IC in the game. This is the only reason I can think of that we got it instead.

But if someone wants Person A's reasoning for their decision, asking Persons B, C and X isn't going to achieve that.

ETL

[Impossibear]

I am talking about today and it’s ramifications going forward.

We have a confirmed town tracker flipped that may or may not be impacted by scum.

We have a claimed slow cop.
We have a claimed daycop on day one.
We have Kaede’s ability
We have Maria R who claimed an investigative on Dunnstral.

Do you see the issue?

1) Tracker is gated.

2) Cop is gated.

3) Looks like Jungle doesn't know what the quest will be until he gives it or the night he can give it at the very least. I'm willing to bet the other quests are not necessarily all going to be investigative abilities.

4) Kaede's ability is ???? irrelevant here.

5) Maria R is ??? probably scum. Continues not to claim anything about the so-called Dunnstral "scout". We know nothing about it, and she continues to give no information about it. <<< Not a trustworthy "claim" at this point.

I understand that your problem with the setup thus far is that it seems unbalanced in that town has too many ways to "clear" other people. Not only can scum fuck with every single one of these, but town has to work really hard to get them to work properly - they need to not die/get lynched for at least 2 full days/nights, they need to recruit properly and track properly and hope the action isn't fucked with, blocked, or otherwise, they need to jump through hoops AND get the entire thread to follow along to complete the quest. GIF is probably also randing the JOAT abilities for Jungle from a preset list of options.

This is not unbalanced. If your aim is to try to find scum based on setup spec, please don't. There is still not enough information. We don't know what the scumteam has.

ETL

[Impossibear]

I don't believe Jungle is scum.

UNVOTE:

Sorry Jingle, we're not doing that today.

[Impossibear]

I'm good with projectmatt though. That's a good lynch.

VOTE: pmatt

ETL

[Impossibear]

Apparently when I got drunk and typed up a wall I was too drunk to submit. I’ll remake that today during lunch. Promise I’ll get to new content then too.

Jingle

[Impossibear]

Spoiler: WRT OTM/ALCH

@Impossibear,

did Jingle ever give input on the Party Starter?

Everyone else is saying OTM is just stubborn Town but I still have a hard time seeing it.

P-edit: Now that I can agree with. :/

My drunk post ate my input. Sorry.

Town OTM and town you is possible if we make the additional assumption of Scum JK/Busdriver. Preliminary setup spec says that the odds of one of those two is near 100%, because there's no scum motivation to give US specifically the Party Starter and OTM has been playing to their town meta. There is no way your role and OTM's are both town without another role affected by your role. And, having made that bit of theory leap, your role is almost outed already, so I'm just going to stop talking in riddles about this particular piece of information.

Alchemist gave us a Party Starter last night. I confirmed this to him via crumb early today and he responded in kind, so I'm 100% sure it came from him. The party starter makes us strong willed.

There is no scum motivation to giving the vig the Party Starter if the vig is hard townreading you (we were, fairly obviously). There is no scum motivation in NOT giving the strong willed modifier to your partner if there is a town RB. OTM claimed yesterday. The paranoia wrt to OTM makes perfect sense from someone who isn't nuts in the exact same way as me

This doesn't discount the OTM is town argument, however. I don't see OTM as a player reacting to the hebi situation the same way as scum. The dave target N1 was an objectively good RB target for town. It was an objectively terrible target for scum, and claiming it when you didn't target dave under no pressure makes no sense at all unless we assume hebi is either A. an idiot or B. suicidal. The dave retarget makes sense from the POV of someone absolutely convinced that dave is scum, which fits OTM's play to a T. Compounding that, every word of pun's wall about OTM rings true to my knowledge of them as a player. TBF, I have seen scum OTM much less frequently than town OTM, but this? This is town OTM. This is genuine frustration that people are playing "wrong" not cackling with glee as people play "wrong" and tear themselves apart.

I just don’t think that is a thing. It’s more likely a fruit vendor than a new type of action.

You're looking at this wrong, btw. Someone came up with the new type of action. The question is, was it GiF or Jungle. Given the rest of the setup so far, my bet is heavily on GiF. The reason (THE ONLY REASON) I doubt the claim and think it might be a public fruit vendor is because of the way Jungle approached the quest. Specifically, he did not claim any additional input was necessary from him at the time of the original claim to the best of my knowledge, nor did he object when I claimed my plan to quickhammer any wagon that hit L-1, which apparently would have fucked up his action.

Objectively speaking, Jungle is neither locktown nor confscum. If we lynch him, it's a policy lynch. (A policy lynch I passively support, but ETL thinks he's town so a bad one nonetheless, when we have legitimately scummy players to sort.)

Alch and OTM are both locktown, though not conftown. Jungle is null from a mechanical standpoint, but I could endorse a policy lynch if ETL wasn't townreading the slot independently. Objectively speaking, knowing me/RC are both town, Jungle putting himself in the middle of that fight to calm us both down took balls of steel if he's scum. If I'm wrong about his identity, he's 100% town for it. I find this very unlikely. Either way, thanks for doing so, friend.

Pun is solidly town atm, both because the wall post is exactly what I expect from town pun at this point in the game, AND because of RC's setup spec D2. I can find and link if anyone needs that explained. There are, however, several points that needs be addressed.

Spoiler: Pun Response

GIF already answered your mod question. The player flips with whatever role they died with, and the swap could be used ad nauseam. As such, we know that Vent was a roleswapper when he died, but not what role he entered the game with, suggesting that the rest of the scumteam has an incredible amount of power, but probably not a godfather.

Your Maria read is based partially on an inconsistency in claims. This is not the case. AFAICR, there is nothing suggesting that Maria has an investigative independent of her shared investigative with RC. However, the rest of your analysis of her play rings true and I support the scumread there.

With that said, I'm going to drop an action plan for Maria shortly to hopefully turn her and her neighbor into a mason pair, so it's a bad lynch today anyway.

I remain unsure we were the nightkill N1. I also maintain that it really doesn't matter, from a guilty/inno on dave perspective. We simply don't know enough to know if there is another hidden action manipulating things, and I find it likely there is.

I don't think you should telegraph your hide tonight because:

Spoiler: There's probably a busdriver

So, I mentioned earlier that there being a busdriver necessarily means that OTM/Alch could both be town. Here's why it's probably that specific role, or at least a role in that family.

When I said that the Party Starter made us strongwilled, that was a slight lie. GiF didn't use that modifier, he spelled out what that modifier does. This is evidence that GiF is unaware of the modifier's existence, but also weak evidence that there is both a blocking and redirecting role in the setup.

Busdriver interacts favorably with vigs, hiders, slowcops, and Jungle's role. It significantly reduces the amount of power available to us by making it so that if we choose predictable targets, scum can turn our kill into a second scumkill. It gives scum a chance to fuck with the hider role in a way that makes the modification to the hider role important. It can't give fake guilties, real guilties, and can be an extra scumkill if used poorly. The slowcop interaction is almost as strong as a roleblocker, but not quite. See, with a redirector/busdriver, wilky has a chance to hit the player he was redirected to the next night.

The NAR portion of OTM's role also suggests that this kind of role exists. Basically, from what I can glean OTM is motivated (They act first). This resolves the potential action interaction annoyance of having multiple blocking/redirecting roles in the same setup. This means town has a way of making the scum kill not a functional strongman (should scum choose to use their busdriver that way).

Jungle's role also interacts favorably with a busdriver. The public portion of the quest tells him immediately if he's redirected, and if his role is town he can now inform us that the role exists and he was redirected.

And finally:

Spoiler: @ Maria

Lynching Maria today is DUMB.

Lynching Dunn is interesting, in that if he has an active power that's basically a hard guilty on Maria, but I don't really want to consider or the implications thereof atm.

Here's how we deal with the Maria sitch:

1. Maria outs neighborhood partner. Said partner corroborates or CC's all information received from Maria today.
2. Maria confirms with GIF that they still have access to the group track.
3. Maria tells us whether they have/had daytalk.
4. Maria confirms with GIF whether a roleblock on a member of the neighborhood will stop the track, or whether every member of the neighborhood needs to be roleblocked to stop the track.
5. Maria targets us or OTM tonight (Or Kaede). If they receive a result, they become a pair of masons. If they don't, then there is confirmed a scum in the grouping. Yes, I am confirming we will use our murderlating powers tonight.
6. Maria tells us whether she was recruited to the neighborhood thread overnight or at Daystart.

Clearly I'm making some assumptions about how the role works here, but I think I covered all the relevant questions that neighborhood members need to ask.

[Impossibear]

waiting for impoe bear to answer me then we lynch matt

Ofc.

Case 1: Two town neighborhood. Your neighborhood partner is not getting shot on the basis of RC's role. There's far better options for a nightkill than a 1 shot tracker who knows the identity of one other town player, even if that player is suspect.
Case 2. 1 Scum 1 Town. In the case you're the scum, well... nothing lost there. If your partner is the one that is scum, you can be killed, at which point the possible guilty on scum disappears. But, you say, I can crumb their identity! Well, why? You're STILL not the nightkill, and odds are if you crumb well enough for town to get it, scum will get it first.
Case 3. 2 Scum. Locking you into the mason claim today is protown as shit. You then have to choose whether to hard crossbus tomorrow or deal with the fact that a guilty on one slot is a guilty on both for the rest of the game.

(I'll be a bit miffed if nobody takes the time to at least take a cursory look at what I just provided given it took me an hour to compile just five years out of the total of eight years of Large Theme games.)

i appreciate the effort, but i'm not going to respond to the meta-case because i don't know nero cain and it would be silly to try to argue about something so subjective.

could you do me a favor and iso me? you've implied that you haven't read a lot of my posts. or, at the very least, read the last couple of pages comprehensively.

requoting in case pun missed it.

also pun, have you played with me on mafiascum or on another mafia website? i'm genuinely curious, just because i don't play here that often.

Pun mostly if not exclusively plays here. Also, I looked over some of your completed games and found at least one with pun in it.

With that said, I'm going to drop an action plan for Maria shortly to hopefully turn her and her neighbor into a mason pair, so it's a bad lynch today anyway.

I maintain that any plan which relies on her being town is a bad plan, but acknowledge we can have better lynches and that the plan will at least help demonstrate her alignment when she refuses to cooperate.

I don't think you should telegraph your hide tonight because: There's probably a busdriver

I don't see why. The mod told me my Hide is equal to a Commute in NAR. This means I always hide behind my intended target. Now, if pun want to shoot my target when I'm hiding behind players that should be lynched, power to them. If town wants to shoot my target when I'm hiding behind players that should be lynched, then they would be taking that shot anyway.

The plan as detailed doesn't rely on her being town, it turns a oneshot communal tracker into either a pair confirmed to be the same alignment, or a hard 1v1. And there's two people who will be responsible for making sure there are no lies. We're here to milk every last bit of the utility of the role, not rely on the role. Also, I noticed that Maria claims to have an investigation independent of the track, so please ignore that part of my post.

The spec from RC reset the mechanical scumread to a slight townlean. You don't have to worry about us townbinning you and forgetting to keep you accountable.

Fair nuff. Not sure why, but I was thinking that busdrive was before hide, in which case not only could they shoot you and a strong town player simultaneously OR fake a guilty on you whichever they chose, but they could do so by targeting a player who would almost certainly not be getting protected and who was more likely to attract an investigation. I maintain that you don't need to telegraph, but it's not antitown like I thought it was.

PMatt:

Your interactions with both OTM and Ouro struck me as throwing gas on a fire, there's a lot of complaining about people talking about mechanics without pushing reads in your ISO, and you really only seemed interested in pushing your reads when you yourself were under pressure.

Further, your flip if scum with a night action is outright damning for Maria.

[Impossibear]

I know Wilky is lying because I can’t have been the source of the block. I also know I can’t be copied either.

Um... Whether or not this is the case, I think you missed the point of my setup spec. (If I'm missing the point of this argument, I apologize, but if the argument is a waste of time then I'll derail it now)

A busdriver can have functionally roleblocked Wilky by changing his target. He would have received no result, because he targeted a different player than on N1.

Your roleblock could be a strongman-strongwilled-dayvanillaizer-for-a-night, and that doesn't change that a different person could have a different role that interacted with wilky to produce the exact circumstances here.

~Jingle

(I'll actually read this game at some point. Promise.)

[Impossibear]

OTM. A REDIRECT ON

WILKY

HAS FUCKING NOTHING TO DO WITH

YOU

OR WHO YOU BLOCKED, AND WOULD STILL RESULT IN WILKY GETTING NO RESULT.

Why is this so fucking hard to understand????

ETL

[Impossibear]

the odds of that are pretty nil

omfg... according to who, YOU???

Like.. where are you getting this idea?? We have very clear reasons for believing there is a redirector in this game. We are telling you that is the absolute 100% case. But you are ignoring the facts in order for the narrative to fit your narrow scope of the game.

This is how you are coming to incorrect conclusions and why everyone is yelling at you and calling you wrong.

Because you are wrong. The entire last week of this game has been you spouting BS and the rest of the thread trying to explain why and how you are wrong and you ignoring common sense.

THE ENTIRE WEEK

. The last 20-odd pages. STOP IT.

ETL

[Impossibear]

@ETL
If you had my role PM you’d be in my shoes.

I wouldn’t be arguing this if I didn’t believe it.

OTM. A REDIRECT ON

WILKY

HAS FUCKING NOTHING TO DO WITH

YOU

OR WHO YOU BLOCKED, AND WOULD STILL RESULT IN WILKY GETTING NO RESULT.

Why is this so fucking hard to understand????

ETL

[Impossibear]

It has fuck all to do with your role. Stop acting like you blocking dave and wilky failing are in any way fucking related whatsoever if a redirector exists, which it fucking does. End of story.

ETL

[Impossibear]

can i MANhammer projectmatt yet?

no? evil titus still spamming the game with bullshit? alright, will come back later...

ABSOLUTELY NOT.

You stay and contribue.

[Impossibear]

can we lynch davesaz for blatantly pushing scum wincon?

what scum wincon did he push?

I'd rather lynch pmatt today.

that little getting roleblocked thing by OtM yesterday is also

really

fishy...

Explain what you mean.

Let's chat about reads while you're here.

ETL

[Impossibear]

You’re literally inventing a redirector when there is no proof any exists.

WE HAVE PROOF..... ????????????

[Impossibear]

read daveasz vs punreader and see if dave doesnt come across as extremely scummy while pun comes off as extra townie

Ok, I'll review these two together. I personally think it is the other way around.

[Impossibear]

Spoiler: WRT OTM/ALCH

@Impossibear,

did Jingle ever give input on the Party Starter?

Everyone else is saying OTM is just stubborn Town but I still have a hard time seeing it.

P-edit: Now that I can agree with. :/

My drunk post ate my input. Sorry.

Town OTM and town you is possible if we make the additional assumption of Scum JK/Busdriver. Preliminary setup spec says that the odds of one of those two is near 100%, because there's no scum motivation to give US specifically the Party Starter and OTM has been playing to their town meta. There is no way your role and OTM's are both town without another role affected by your role. And, having made that bit of theory leap, your role is almost outed already, so I'm just going to stop talking in riddles about this particular piece of information.

Alchemist gave us a Party Starter last night. I confirmed this to him via crumb early today and he responded in kind, so I'm 100% sure it came from him. The party starter makes us strong willed.

There is no scum motivation to giving the vig the Party Starter if the vig is hard townreading you (we were, fairly obviously). There is no scum motivation in NOT giving the strong willed modifier to your partner if there is a town RB. OTM claimed yesterday. The paranoia wrt to OTM makes perfect sense from someone who isn't nuts in the exact same way as me

This doesn't discount the OTM is town argument, however. I don't see OTM as a player reacting to the hebi situation the same way as scum. The dave target N1 was an objectively good RB target for town. It was an objectively terrible target for scum, and claiming it when you didn't target dave under no pressure makes no sense at all unless we assume hebi is either A. an idiot or B. suicidal. The dave retarget makes sense from the POV of someone absolutely convinced that dave is scum, which fits OTM's play to a T. Compounding that, every word of pun's wall about OTM rings true to my knowledge of them as a player. TBF, I have seen scum OTM much less frequently than town OTM, but this? This is town OTM. This is genuine frustration that people are playing "wrong" not cackling with glee as people play "wrong" and tear themselves apart.

I just don’t think that is a thing. It’s more likely a fruit vendor than a new type of action.

You're looking at this wrong, btw. Someone came up with the new type of action. The question is, was it GiF or Jungle. Given the rest of the setup so far, my bet is heavily on GiF. The reason (THE ONLY REASON) I doubt the claim and think it might be a public fruit vendor is because of the way Jungle approached the quest. Specifically, he did not claim any additional input was necessary from him at the time of the original claim to the best of my knowledge, nor did he object when I claimed my plan to quickhammer any wagon that hit L-1, which apparently would have fucked up his action.

Objectively speaking, Jungle is neither locktown nor confscum. If we lynch him, it's a policy lynch. (A policy lynch I passively support, but ETL thinks he's town so a bad one nonetheless, when we have legitimately scummy players to sort.)

Alch and OTM are both locktown, though not conftown. Jungle is null from a mechanical standpoint, but I could endorse a policy lynch if ETL wasn't townreading the slot independently. Objectively speaking, knowing me/RC are both town, Jungle putting himself in the middle of that fight to calm us both down took balls of steel if he's scum. If I'm wrong about his identity, he's 100% town for it. I find this very unlikely. Either way, thanks for doing so, friend.

Pun is solidly town atm, both because the wall post is exactly what I expect from town pun at this point in the game, AND because of RC's setup spec D2. I can find and link if anyone needs that explained. There are, however, several points that needs be addressed.

Spoiler: Pun Response

GIF already answered your mod question. The player flips with whatever role they died with, and the swap could be used ad nauseam. As such, we know that Vent was a roleswapper when he died, but not what role he entered the game with, suggesting that the rest of the scumteam has an incredible amount of power, but probably not a godfather.

Your Maria read is based partially on an inconsistency in claims. This is not the case. AFAICR, there is nothing suggesting that Maria has an investigative independent of her shared investigative with RC. However, the rest of your analysis of her play rings true and I support the scumread there.

With that said, I'm going to drop an action plan for Maria shortly to hopefully turn her and her neighbor into a mason pair, so it's a bad lynch today anyway.

I remain unsure we were the nightkill N1. I also maintain that it really doesn't matter, from a guilty/inno on dave perspective. We simply don't know enough to know if there is another hidden action manipulating things, and I find it likely there is.

I don't think you should telegraph your hide tonight because:

Spoiler: There's probably a busdriver

So, I mentioned earlier that there being a busdriver necessarily means that OTM/Alch could both be town. Here's why it's probably that specific role, or at least a role in that family.

When I said that the Party Starter made us strongwilled, that was a slight lie. GiF didn't use that modifier, he spelled out what that modifier does. This is evidence that GiF is unaware of the modifier's existence, but also weak evidence that there is both a blocking and redirecting role in the setup.

Busdriver interacts favorably with vigs, hiders, slowcops, and Jungle's role. It significantly reduces the amount of power available to us by making it so that if we choose predictable targets, scum can turn our kill into a second scumkill. It gives scum a chance to fuck with the hider role in a way that makes the modification to the hider role important. It can't give fake guilties, real guilties, and can be an extra scumkill if used poorly. The slowcop interaction is almost as strong as a roleblocker, but not quite. See, with a redirector/busdriver, wilky has a chance to hit the player he was redirected to the next night.

The NAR portion of OTM's role also suggests that this kind of role exists. Basically, from what I can glean OTM is motivated (They act first). This resolves the potential action interaction annoyance of having multiple blocking/redirecting roles in the same setup. This means town has a way of making the scum kill not a functional strongman (should scum choose to use their busdriver that way).

Jungle's role also interacts favorably with a busdriver. The public portion of the quest tells him immediately if he's redirected, and if his role is town he can now inform us that the role exists and he was redirected.

And finally:

Spoiler: @ Maria

Lynching Maria today is DUMB.

Lynching Dunn is interesting, in that if he has an active power that's basically a hard guilty on Maria, but I don't really want to consider or the implications thereof atm.

Here's how we deal with the Maria sitch:

1. Maria outs neighborhood partner. Said partner corroborates or CC's all information received from Maria today.
2. Maria confirms with GIF that they still have access to the group track.
3. Maria tells us whether they have/had daytalk.
4. Maria confirms with GIF whether a roleblock on a member of the neighborhood will stop the track, or whether every member of the neighborhood needs to be roleblocked to stop the track.
5. Maria targets us or OTM tonight (Or Kaede). If they receive a result, they become a pair of masons. If they don't, then there is confirmed a scum in the grouping. Yes, I am confirming we will use our murderlating powers tonight.
6. Maria tells us whether she was recruited to the neighborhood thread overnight or at Daystart.

Clearly I'm making some assumptions about how the role works here, but I think I covered all the relevant questions that neighborhood members need to ask.

^^^ PROOF OF REDIRECTOR-TYPE ROLE IN THE GAME ^^^

LRN2RD OTM.

[Impossibear]

that little getting roleblocked thing by OtM yesterday is also

really

fishy...

Explain what you mean.

Let's chat about reads while you're here.

ETL

remember how OtM was making a GIANT FUSS about roleblocking scum yesterday... and no kill... blah blah...?

what if... WHAT IF... dave actually submitted the nightkill and got roleblocked?

I ackowledge that is absolutely a possibility.

well, we ignored it because you are bulletproof

but his actions are scummy now

he is blatantly pushing REALMEN even though its clearly 100% proofed bullshit by mister punreader

I personally don't trust the punreader slot at all. I know that player is very capable of logical-sounding posts, that may even agree with town consensus, but in retrospect and with more information, it's possible that they are simply reinforcing town mistakes. as of this moment, i do not know one way or the other and am leaving that read primarily to Jingle for now.

and cannot respond to logic, all the logic flaws are obvious

Ok, this I want to see. Specifically what points were raised that Dave was unable to refute and what flaws were present? I will admit that I have skimmed a lot the last week.

now you may argue: "well, we've seen dumber towns than that!"

but sometimes, scum are just scum. and they do things to push scum agenda.

the best REAL MEN SCUM can push scum agenda while looking towny. you know you can do so too.

why exempt daveasz?

He's not entirely exempt from my personal lynchpool. I'm reevaluating my PoE list at the moment.

I'm concerned that pmatt's emotion the last few pages is looking like town frustration, and I can't tell if it's real or faked. Can you?

ETL

[Impossibear]

i have taken a look, and although it looks >rand town, it can be faked by a player of high skill level. such as myself and yourself.

do we have any gauge of pmatt's skill level? i recall some players earlier saying that he was a very good player. or something.

I've only played a couple times with him and have no personal gauge of his skill, but have also heard he is very good and can easily be townread as scum. I don't necessarily want to decide this on his ability though. I want to decide if this is really the right decision to be making today.

Are you proficient in reading Ankamius?

ETL

[Impossibear]

I think we maybe need to go back to ventriloquist's ISO...

[Impossibear]

OK, so... going off straight non-WIFOM associations, assuming vent tried only to shade townies, and either waffled or townread buddies, here's what we've got:

Spoiler: PBPA

235 throws shade at tchill & wilky
238 goes after Ram for self-voting.
434 says he scumreads ram and MWNN [town] tries to deflect RC's accusation of lurking onto hebichan & RMOJ
739 defends us against RC. I suddenly see why they were so hellbent on us being scum.... This tells me specifically they were likely to buddy townies.

Strongest associations have been ramcius as town, MWNN as town (unfortunately already dead), hebichan/OTM and RMOJ as town. The problem with the ISO is just that they only really engaged with Ouroboros, and only mentioned those people that Ouroboros mentioned besides those few he mentioned early in the ISO, prior to RC's push.

Possible others for town from this might be tchill wilky, but I could see tchill specifically being a partner in this case.

yup PM is scum, but we established that a while back I think.

I wish they had discussed more about what they thought if Wraith were to flip town. I will need to dig a bit deeper for that I think. It's gotta be in there somewhere.

I wasn't the one who led on Wraith here. Kaede was the one who wanted the Wraith lynch, I had wanted the Kokichi lynch.

Hmmmmmmmmmmmm...... Ok, so the thing that led RC to Wraith was some meta dive he did, some tells he had applied, etc. Perhaps if he hadn't been distracted by these, he'd have gone for Kokichi and/or pmatt.

Kaede says she has specifically close meta townread on Kokichi.

If kokichi is scum that means all he had to do to win the game is pocket you which is something that I believe his style of play excels at more than convincing broader groups that he's town.

@KAEDE

Do you think it's possible Kokichi has done this here or is there some reason I should believe that's out of the question?

ETL

[Impossibear]

REVIEW

davesaz - RMOJ says this is scum
ankamius - RMOJ says this is town
nero cain/projectmatt - RC says scum
verylazy/kokichi - RC says scum
mariaR
tchill/punreader
dunnstral

bleh. so here's my "to review" list, aka PoE - I am 100% confident the remaining scums are in here. Problem is it's still a fairly large list.

ETL

p-edit yeah i know

[Impossibear]

if we're thinking 4 total in this game, which I agree with, 3/7 isn't that bad I suppose. 42% chance of hitting scum today. Can we afford to simply lynch the scummiest out of this pool until they're found or the others are proven to be town?

pedit ok, i missed the dunn read.

[Impossibear]

add the part where i say dunnstral is town

how confident is this read? what is your experience with the player?

ETL

[Impossibear]

ok, I'll trust you there for today. dunn and pun can be on hold until i get more info tomorrow.

Investigative abilities should be focused on this group! Targeting outside the PoE will be considered a scumclaim.

higher priority

projectmatt
davesaz
verylazy/kokichi
mariaR

the rest

ankamius
dunnstral
punreader

I think we have a good plan of action right now. The only thing left for today is

Maria to provide the name of the other neighbor

, if such a person even exists. pmatt's flip will indicate lies or not.

and then we will shoot accordingly.

ETL

[Impossibear]

oh yeah, dont forget that daveaz is a miller so technically investigative abilities shouldnt be on him


i wouldnt miss him if u vigged him

right. true.

that's fine. but only direct investigations will have anything to do with the miller thing. tracks, watches, etc would provide info.

[Impossibear]

♥

this was very helpful for me too

[Impossibear]

Updated the last VC:

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE (3): OnTheMark, Kokichi Oma, davesaz
projectmatt (6): Ramcius, Impossibear, punreader, Kaede Akamatsu, MariaR, wilky
Ramcius (2): Ankamius, projectmatt
davesaz (1): REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE
wilky (1): dunnstral

My thoughts:

1)

There is scum on the Jungle wagon. It is probably kokichi. Could see dave as well.

2)

There is scum on the ram wagon - thinking pmatt here.

3)

if Maria got a no result on track pmatt, why voting there and not elsewhere? logic doesn't add up and smells of bus.

ETL

p-edit: Ok, understood; thanks

[Impossibear]

I don't think the miller really needs to be talked on and should just focus on the play of said miller. It can be a fake claim but that doesn't mean it's a scum fake claim either. Just focus on day play and if something comes up we can talk about it.

I would rather wilky claim first myself because his whole way of going at it gives me bad vibes that I can't really explain compared to dave

I think Dave can only really be scum if Maria is.

The other problem I have with the maria slot is the fact that as soon as RC recruited them into the hood, they stopped contributing altogether and have been attempting to coast on RC's townread.

PLUS the sketchiness re: the neighborhood itself:
- pmatt flipping with a night action condemns the hood, and confirms that at least one or both are scum.
- pmatt flipping with no night action at least confirms that the result was accurate.
- if maria is town, there is absolutely no reason she should not want this. "protecting" the other neighbor is nonsense at this point and serves no purpose.
- if maria is scum, there is every reason to withhold the name of the neighbor, if there even IS another neighbor, because they want to see who we shoot, so they can claim the proper partner to be the supposed neighbor. requiring maria to reveal the neighbor locks her and the neighbor into a commited claim, and allows the lynch flip and night actions to reveal whether they are lying or not. <<<< if maria is town, this should be very desirable. if maria is scum, she is going to try to avoid this at all costs.

PLUS the fake-AF "scout" bs that hs never not once been explained or discussed.

There's obviously a chance she or both could be town and we can prove it. That is exceptionally high utility for town. This is another reason she should claim who the supposed other neighbor is, because should she or the neighbor die, it still allows us to use the surviving member in PoE to narrow the pool if they are town. The only reason one of them would die is if scum is afraid of the neighborhood becoming a masonry, which they cannot avoid even by killing either of them.

ETL

[Impossibear]

If both of the neighbors is town and the 2nd one is outed, scum kills one of them and then tries to frame the remaining one as a natural result of point 1.

No. They become null and read by play.

Why do you not want to get the most utility from the neighborhood as possible?

[Impossibear]

There is far more utility for town by forcing Maria to commit to who she says the neighbor is rather than allowing scum to manipulate the response once they see who we choose to shoot.

[Impossibear]

Spoiler: slips

alright, my hand is forced, i guess.

my flavor is piper. i'm an odd night rolecop. my pm specifies that i can investigate on every other night, starting on n1.

nero cain did not submit an action on night one. (i've been trying to figure out why, tbh.)

i was unable to investigate tonight.

assuming i'm not lynched today, i am going to investigate tonight within impossibear's scumpool.

this sounds like lies. probably a scum role cop. definitely not piper

Weeeeeell ETL says they are lying and that they are definitely not piper.
But im not sure how much I can trust that, considering the way GIF designs flavor and roles.

to be clear... i'm not CCing his flavor. I just don't believe him.

Don't be stupid, if you mislynch me you lost the opportunity to mechanically determine Maria.

I agree with this logic, but I disagree with the delivery.

That's not like you, Dave.

You're on the wrong account, and I've been awake for maybe 10 minutes?
But I'm not sure why you think it isn't like me.

You're not usually mean.

ETL