Mini 2011: Partition Mafia (Game Over)

[zMuffinMan]

no, you were acting like you'd swap dramonic even though i'm pretty sure you were never really considering it

please don't pretend you weren't; i really do not feel like grabbing all the quotes from your ISO

[zMuffinMan]

no, the point was i think you were never actually considering it. you swapped real man out to save him and push the G3 lynch

[zMuffinMan]

Swapping Pine for dram as it is. Probably in a few hours.

Bu and whoever else scumreads dram: No matter how stupid I think he's being here with sticking to the probabilities and such I think he is being genuine here. Cakez is waffly and I think has decent chances of being scum. Realmen agreeing with me makes me think he could be scum buddying me. muffin is going to use his swap. So I think dram's the best choice here.

I believe everyone has spoken

Swap Riku and REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE

VOTE: group 3

[zMuffinMan]

you didn't though, and in 1001 you literally said you didn't care about the scum reads

besides SINCE WHEN DID YOU CARE ABOUT OTHER PEOPLE'S THOUGHTS?

[zMuffinMan]

were you town-reading DV and eddie?

[zMuffinMan]

if you were listening to your town reads, you wouldn't have posted 1001 anyway

i think you never really wanted to swap in dram BUT regardless, this doesn't matter, since i can't prove it, even if i don't believe for a second that you decided between 1001 and when you swapped that you had a change of heart

all i was doing was mentioning the theory i have about why you swapped REAL MAN who no one but you was town-reading and why it makes sense from the perspective you're scum to make it LOOK like you were considering dram when you really weren't

none of this matters if you're town

none of this matters if REAL MAN is town

i'm not using it as a reason to call you scum; kokichi just asked for my thoughts on it and i gave them

[zMuffinMan]

personally, id use that to my advantage (eg knowing scum are going to be less likely to group with me) but i also could give two shits if people disagree

if youre town and you stay in the group, im not going to chastise you for it but it's not something id personally do

[zMuffinMan]

@dram
if we need to lynch G3, who's your preferred swap?

@cakez too

[zMuffinMan]

probably he will conifer with others and decide the best course of action

im hilarious btw, in case i havent told you that already

[zMuffinMan]

Switch with Pine

[zMuffinMan]

it only adds to deadline when under 48 hours (so we have a minimum of 48 hours to make a decision after any switch) - see what cakez claimed

[zMuffinMan]

i'm town

just thought i should remind people of that in case they forgot

[zMuffinMan]

put me in a solo group tomorrow please wisdom

[zMuffinMan]

I actually am thinking muffin is town who is just very wrong about what's optimal for partition mafia. I think he'd be a beast at endgaming a massclaimed normal mafia game. Just not so great here.

I don't blame him so much for thinking he's right and everyone else is wrong just wish he could have maybe chilled it a little.

Also he did swap with pine so we can lynch pine/riku so like even if he's scum he's being nice there.

it took every fibre of my being to not just say "fuck you all" and switch wisdom btw

but, you know, i

figure it will make me look town and it's my only hope

am just a nice guy, obviously

[zMuffinMan]

oh yeah, that's why!

didn't think of that, but that makes sense too

[zMuffinMan]

It's not about going "fuck you all"
It's about lynching scum.
You fucked up brah.

OR you're actually scum with him

*shrug*

the only reason we're in the position we were in today in the first place is because of someone swapping against the will of other players

i figure wisdom was a better swap but it's also the swap that puts town in the worst position if i'm wrong

if wisdom's scum, he's still going to be scum tomorrow

[zMuffinMan]

Yeah but he's gonna be living scum, not dead scum. <_<

tbh, if it were me 2 years ago, i'd have swapped wisdom without a second thought probably. ever since i started playing again, i feel like i'm playing a lot safer than i ever did before because i'm afraid of being wrong. it sucks, but it is what it is - i think i need to get my feet wet again

btw, you don't seriously believe i'm scum with wisdom, do you?

[zMuffinMan]

if wisdom is scum, i'm sorry

[zMuffinMan]

my initial thought going into night was wisdom-REAL MAN-someone from G1 (fitz was my first guess)

protector flip is interesting since it might mean a 6th manipulation role exists (self-mirror). at least if symmetry was a key theme for those roles (i think it might be)

i want eddie to full-claim his role as well as verifying whether he can self-target (i doubt it but if he can that blows my symmetry theory away)

anyway, heading to work so ill probably do some reading when i get home tonight

[zMuffinMan]

who else do you think is scum buj?

also,

They used up their kill so we will never lose if we hit at least 1 scum every day because they can't put less than 1 in each group.

either you're very confused about the setup or i am

[zMuffinMan]

oh wait you mean they cant put less than 1 person in each group. right nm

the problem with your logic, of course, is that if wisdom happens to be town and eddie happens to be town, then town loses today

so yeah, theoretically if one scum gets lynched everyday then town can't lose

otoh that actually needs to happen...

[zMuffinMan]

er, if kokichi happens to be town*

[zMuffinMan]

i've gotta take a nap because i'm exhausted after work but i'm probably going to approach today with the mindset of doing a reset, rereading the events that led up to koki's claim D1 then what happened afterwards and seeing whether i feel the same or different about it knowing the flips. might be around in a few hours to start rereading

[zMuffinMan]

i'm not scum and while eddie might be, if he is, that would be an incredibly stupid way to use his role if he is

i don't believe the scum team spent an entire night thinking about it and came up with that

and i am not particularly surprised that wisdom is going with the "look how scummy that was!" approach instead of thinking about it in any depth

inb4 he claims that i'm scum with eddie and we somehow planned this out

[zMuffinMan]

yes

and i'm not surprised at this

but i don't believe you really think eddie and i planned something like that

let's put it this way:

answer this question - if it were a kokichi, eddie, me scum-team, then why on earth would i think that a play that pretty much guarantees the lynch of G2 (particularly with how eddie did that) is a good play?

obviously if it's me + eddie and we flip today, kokichi is next on the chopping block on suspicion of this theory

but now you're going to suggest that this is wifom and i was hoping to avoid G2 being lynched or something, right?

[zMuffinMan]

if eddie is scum, then this was the single worst use of his role i could possibly think of

plus i currently suspect that there might be another group manipulation role out there but even if there wasn't, i don't think you're town

also, what you said in #1742 only makes sense if we were somehow able to predict who would be suspicious of who after what happened yesterday

[zMuffinMan]

if eddie's scum, it makes G2 look bad, which means he is more likely to be lynched and people put two and two together and think "hey why did he do that?" and look at kokichi next

or do you mean on the assumption that i'm scum with eddie? in that case, it's even worse for us if G2 gets lynched...

pedit: @wisdom

[zMuffinMan]

like in any world where it's me-eddie-kokichi then this was a game-losing move. if i had a whole night phase to think about how i would plan out today with eddie's role, i would not use it like this. complain about WIFOM all you want, it's simply a stupid, risky move

i suppose eddie could be scum and going for this angle to get me lynched, but that leads me to suspect that kokichi might be town rather than scum and this is still far worse than any sort of plan that involves being able to lynch more than 1 town player today so i don't see why scum plans it out like this

the other possibility is that eddie is just town and made a dumb move and is not copping flak for it, which i don't think is outside the realm of possibility and the fact that you aren't considering this doesn't surprise me. though i suppose you've also declared that there must be one scum in me+eddie so it's not all that inconsistent for you

[zMuffinMan]

he could move him to g1 if he was so afraid, where we could still lynch him without losing

if he's town, he did this to SAVE kokichi, not get him lynched

if he's scum, he probably did the same but there's a layer of "is kokichi scum because of it?" around that

still, if he's scum, there are far better groupings and ways he could have used his role IMO

[zMuffinMan]

because eddie being dumb as scum requires an entire scum team being dumb as scum

[zMuffinMan]

that's not impossible, i think it less likely than the alternative though

[zMuffinMan]

oh and the reason i assume this might mean kokichi-town if eddie is scum is because that's the only reality i see playing out here. e.g. do this, get G2 lynched, take it to D3 with kokichi looking bad in a 2-town group and pushing that lynch for the win. i suppose he could have been counting on people thinking this and calling kokichi town because of it though? i doubt it, but it's a possibility i suppose

that said... i think this is a risky plan unless he could predict how people will vote today, which is why i say there were probably better groupings if he's scum and this was a scum plan

[zMuffinMan]

also, you are the last person who has any right to talk about fucking up groups through use of role, wisdom

[zMuffinMan]

To you it comes down to which is more likely. That eddie/koki has scum or me/RMOJ/fitz has scum.

prior to this switching occuring, i would have predicted G3 was more likely to contain at least 1 scum than any other group

post-switch, i still think that's the case, but this simplifies things a bit

i'm probably going to spend some time ruling out possibilities of wisdom+nsg, wisdom+eddie, nsg+eddie before i make a decision today

[zMuffinMan]

Okay I'm fine with being lynched now

if kokichi is scum, this might have been an unintentional slip that G3 was all town, which is part of why i don't think voting quickly is all that good idea

[zMuffinMan]

though i suppose it could have been a bluff on second thought

just felt like a bit of an in-the-moment reaction though

[zMuffinMan]

Wouldn't they want to make the 2 player group an attractive choice considering that if both are town we lose if lynched?

funny thing about this. my gut reaction to seeing groups today was "wisdom is a cheeky scum fuck"

the way the groups are designed with him being in a 2-player group that was unlikely to be lynched today and me+eddie being together in a group (such that he could push the "1 of them is scum" angle) made me think he'd set up the groups specifically for this purpose

but on the chance that wisdom is actually town, this is almost 100% what they were expecting me to think after yesterday ended, which is why i said at the start of today that i want to try doing a full reset

i'll probably start going back over the game over the next couple days and just post observations about early game that i notice as i go through it

[zMuffinMan]

buj, salvage what? if we're scum, you literally just ignore me if you think koki is scum tomorrow after lynching me and eddie...

i think really if you want to argue that the team is me eddie kok you have to argue that the current situation is one we planned out, which seems stupid to me but maybe you disagree

to suggest we tried to go allin and then eddie panicked and threw a hail mary, as you put it, suggests a digusting lack of forethought. i like to think i would not be that stupid as scum

[zMuffinMan]

i think you're severely underestimating more than just me if you think eddie-scum panicked when he saw your single vote on G2 and thought "OH SHIT, TIME FOR PLAN B!"

besides, i can think of infinitely better plans without even having a full night phase to consider them. think, for example, how much better a 4-2-2 group would be with the current group 3 being the 4 - best case scenario, with an eddie-me-kok team, the 4 gets lynched and we just win without needing this "hail mary" thing...

anyway, delving into wifom territory here, but the point i was making is that in order for you to think it's an eddie-me-kok team, you'd have to think what we did here was planned and if you think eddie making us look this bad was part of the plan then i don't have words for you

[zMuffinMan]

How is 4-2-2 better for scum... who would you put in the 2/2 groups? Because if koki is put in the 4 and me and wis are in another group nobody will think the 4man group is all town. They just can't lynch there meaning most likely koki gets confirmed as scum.

just quickly because i'm supposed to be working atm, but i meant the current group of 4 plus any variation of 2s in other groups, but let's just say for the sake of example the current groups - you're arguing that scum win lynching group 1 or 3 with the original split, but your theoretical me+eddie+kokichi team makes this split also win with the same lynches, except without the need for the "panic plan b" thing that makes us look bad... anyway, not super important but i was just trying to explain why the theory that we decided to hail mary and failed doesn't make sense

i'll read the rest of what's going on when i get a break

[zMuffinMan]

Except nobody would lynch the 4 man group if the day started with it.

that's not true, but i'm not interested in arguing about this anymore if you think this is a true statement. it's not a fruitful discussion

your entire theory boils down to "this might have happened". it didn't. that's all there is to it

i dont like how bjaber and wisdom don't even second guess each other at all.

why does this matter to you? unless you think they're scum together, then at least one of them is doing this as town (and if one is doing it as town, the other could theoretically also be doing it as town)

[zMuffinMan]

heh that actually slipped my mind

that said, just saying something bothers you probably isnt going a long way towards sorting out

[zMuffinMan]

If there's a 4 man group that includes me/koki.. is there anyone here that thinks we are scum together?
If we aren't scum together wouldn't be suspicious to put 2 of the guilty pool together in a 4 man group? Wouldn't that look like lynch bait to you? At first sight it would look like an attractive lynch. Confirm wisdom as guilty OR kill the guilty in koki/buj. But if both fitz/RMOJ are town you can't afford it.
If eddie is scum and doesn't move anybody from g3 you'd know he's happy with the lynch. And if he moves one of them he exposes himself for sure. In today's scenario that actually happened it's not 100% guaranteed that he's scum. Otherwise we wouldn't be having this conversation.
So no if the team is you/eddie/koki you wouldn't start the day with a 4 man group.

i think your thought process is too shallow here, but i'll respond to you and break it down and whether you like my response or not, i'm probably going to leave it at this because it's a discussion of a hypothetical (different starting groups) of a hypothetical (me+eddie+kokichi) and it's going nowhere since you seem stuck on certain ideas that seem obviously wrong to me, which is why i say it's not fruitful

i'll try to keep this simple and spoiler it for anyone who really doesn't care about delving into WIFOM stuff

Spoiler:

pretty much any grouping you can think of has some level of WIFOM attached to it. supposing your hypothetical team, then a 4-man group with {you, koki, fitz, REAL MAN} would, of course, be bait. but

that doesn't mean that people wouldn't be suspicious of it or wouldn't want to lynch it

this is the first place you're going wrong in your reasoning. you seem to be thinking that if people saw that they'd realise that it was a setup. except that's not how things work because anything that could perceivably be seen as a setup is also a good cover for scum to hide behind (and that goes for any game, not just this one - it's why, for example, bussing works and why "why would i do X as scum?" is a common line in any game). so yes, people might be suspicious of it being setup. but people might also be suspicious of it being a cover and that's why it might very well work

so i don't really see your point about "if fitz/RMOJ are both town you can't afford it" - this simply wouldn't be true for a variety of reasons (least of which is that people might just be suspicious of them)

and i don't really see your point about eddie exposing his desire to lynch group 4 because that wouldn't mean anything except that eddie would be fine with lynching group 4 (and that tells you nothing about his alignment)...

and yes, perhaps in a scenario where it was eddie+me in a 2-man group, we'd have come under fire for whatever reason anyway. so what? that's a possible risk regardless of groupings and i don't see why whatever logic you're applying to this hypothetical 2-man group also doesn't apply to the 3-man group today

in essence, you seem to have a very 1-dimensional view about how things would pan out but you don't seem to be considering the reality of the situation; it's harder than you're making it out to be to actually figure things out

none of this really matters though (IMO). the problem is you're drawing a conclusion based on an

assumption

and that's really not healthy for the game state (unless you're scum, in which case it's probably not a bad thing for you to be doing, but it's still annoying to have to deal with). the reason i say that it's not healthy is there really is no defense to an assumption that isn't based on play, regardless of whether it's right or wrong

to draw an analogy; you could say that claiming miller is a good scum tactic because it keeps scum safe from cops. this is true. this is why a lot of people advocate policy lynching millers btw (or used to, i'm not sure how common that line of thought is nowadays). so yes, you can say "that guy claimed miller; that's a perfect fake-claim for scum!" but other than the other guy saying "you're wrong" or pointing out perhaps that claiming miller is bad if there's a town rolecop or whatever, there's nothing more that can be said about it (i'm going on a tangent here, but hopefully you get the point). you might even be right that a miller claim

IS

scum, but that doesn't mean it's a good assumption to make or a good thing to argue

if you think someone is scum, you should be able to show it by what they've actually done instead of a "what if..."

so if you want to talk about eddie's move being anti-town, therefore coming from scum, therefore it's a scumteam of me+kokichi+eddie, i'm not interested (except insofar as it tells me what your reads are). i wouldn't be interested in discussing that even if it was someone other than me in your hypothetical team. if instead you want to talk about whether you think eddie's move being anti-town makes him scum without making indefensible assumptions, then go ahead

i disagree that it makes him scum, but i've already talked a bit about why. it's not impossible that he's scum and there are certainly scenarios in which i could see this being a scum tactic, but i don't currently see any reason to think that's more likely than him being town. if you think i'm wrong, you're free to open a dialogue about why you think i'm wrong - that's much better for the game than discussion about theoreticals because hey, at least if i were scum with him, you'd have game-relevant information to possibly pin me down instead of speculations about hypotheticals that bear no relevance to the game

anyway, i rambled a bit here, but hopefully you get the point i'm trying to make about why i don't see this as a fruitful discussion to be having"

[zMuffinMan]

yeah, well, i haven't really seen anything that's convinced me it was anything more than an anti-town move and, well, anti-town moves can come from both alignments

[zMuffinMan]

going back and looking at eddie's posts again, i'm having a hard time figuring out what he was trying to achieve tbh

the kokichi-move seems counter-intuitive based on his apparent wisdom scum read and it's hard to tell why he does that and THEN calls wisdom scum

but i have a harder time believing that was a scum ploy that he came up with overnight, especially with that rationale

*shrug*

[zMuffinMan]

your PR speculation is flawed, buj, since you seem to be assuming that the PRs that have been made public are the entirety of PRs in this game

i'm currently working on the assumption that a 6th moving PR exists (so far we've had mover, self-mover, swapper, self-swapper, protector... and i wouldn't find it strange if there's a symmetrical self-protector in this game that hasn't yet claimed (and likely may not ever claim since after everything that's happened, it'd probably be considered a scum claim))

but there might not be one and it might just be that one (or more) of the currently claimed PRs is scum

again, this sort of speculation isn't healthy for the game state unless you have a reason to believe that's the case

[zMuffinMan]

koki scum with wisdom is one of the things i wanted to actually go over today when i re-look at the claims. i've made a mental note of checking that out as well as one other thing when i do my reread

pedit: DV's role

[zMuffinMan]

it's in his flip (it removes one player from play for the day, making them unlynchable). it wouldn't surprise me if there's a self-targeting variant because that seems to be a theme in this game (probably limited in the same way the night kill is - i.e. can't be used if it would let them win the game)

but i may be wrong and doing awful setup speculation, so i'm not giving all _that_ much weight to this; it's just something i think could be true and would be cool if it were true (from a setup design perspective)

[zMuffinMan]

in essence, it's possible there's one scum among the claimed PRs. it's possible there's two. it's even possible there are three (though i think this isn't all that plausible, least of all because i'm one of them!) but faulty setup spec is what loses people games, so while i'm keeping it in the back of my mind that there could very easily be scum among the claimed PRs, i'm not going to be making decisions solely on that assumption

i'd advise you not to either. even if you get it right in this game, it's a bad habit to develop in general (but we can discuss this post-game if you want)

anywho, reading stuff now that i've eaten

[zMuffinMan]

well actually from your POV if you're town, there is guaranteed to be scum among the PRs but that's a different matter

[zMuffinMan]

i'm not really sure about your point on wisdom's buddying. from a long-term perspective, having town trust you when you're scum is a _good_ thing, especially in a game where he doesn't directly need to kill you off (if he can kill off a group that contains you). getting people to trust you to be town then getting them to die indirectly is how scum wins this setup

(btw, i hope you don't mind that i'm treating you like a newbie in some regards while trying to explain theory-related stuff. it's nothing personal and i'm not trying to suggest that you're a bad player or anything - i just think that a lot of things you've said in this game are theoretically unsound so i'm trying to help you understand that. if you aren't looking for advice though, i'll stop)

[zMuffinMan]

also, fwiw, i'm not convinced wisdom is scum (and some of his early posts do seem townish now that i'm going back and reading them), but your point about the buddying doesn't really hold much water in my view

[zMuffinMan]

(i wasn't trying to suggest i was correct because i have more experience, either... my arguments are either correct or incorrect and that has nothing to do with experience. hint: they're correct. but whatever, not important)

[zMuffinMan]

sure... but i think you're missing the point because at no point have i said i know better because i've played more games so *shrug*

is your scum read on me based entirely on the eddie thing or do you have individual reasons for thinking i'm scum?

[zMuffinMan]

oh and can you talk about your read on REAL MAN and fitz without reference eddie?

[zMuffinMan]

@NSG

what was the reason you were so certain kokichi was town early? and is that still the reason you're town-reading him or is there something else to that read?

[zMuffinMan]

the aggressive push for a g2 lynch without any swapping. The overly sarcastic comments when people scumread you or a particular post of yours. Your rare use of subjective arguments and opinion and reliance on probability and objectively optimal moves etc. Like I explain earlier, it isn't that these kind of arguments are scummy by themselves, but when someone's ISO is dominated by them it looks sketchy. Why are they not taking a chance with some of their reads? It seemed to me like if you were more trusting of your reads you'd make different arguments but you were content with things that are mechanical and numerical rather than making reasonable conclusions based on your reads.

i wasn't as aggressively pushing the no-swap thing as you are suggesting i was (you're either confusing me with dram or you're forgetting that you've already talked to me about this and i showed you why this wasn't true). i gave two options i wanted; the first was to lynch without swapping and the second was to swap someone first but still lynch G2. the compromise would have allowed wisdom to swap in a scum read and swap out a town read, which i thought was a perfectly alright alternative (even without the power of hindsight). i wasn't as high-strung about the no-swap-whatsoever as dram was (though i did prefer it to swapping)

as far as sarcastic comments go... *shrug* you can always go read some games i played in the past (though the games will be at least 2 years out of date) and see how i treat people who scum read me as either alignment if you want (i would

guess

it's not alignment-indicative for me but i couldn't give you any games off the top of my head where i've reacted as scum with sarcasm or mockery so you'll have to try and dig that up yourself if they exist. i have, however, spent entire day phases at points claiming scum in mockery of people who thought i was scum when i was town. a little sarcasm is a slight improvement on that, all things considered...)

D1 was largely dominated by the swapping that occurred so a lot of time was spent focusing on that, yeah. and yeah, that wasn't a reads-based thing over a logic-based thing because, well, that's just how the chips fell. with the guilty in play, dealing with G2 was my primary concern and trying to get people to understand why dealing with G2 was important (at least IMO) involved explaining the logic behind it... a lot more than i wish i needed to. i think i was still pretty focused on finding scum both in and out of G2 though and i distinctly remember having conversations with other people that involved sorting reads so i'm not sure what your actual issue here is

plus i think it's pretty silly to criticise me for that when you already know that dram, who shared a similar stance on the whole thing, was town

[zMuffinMan]

But then eddie used his move. And now I can't townread it.

i'm honestly surprised that you've played as many games as you have and you've never seen a town player make a rash decision like that (or do something that you think makes no sense from the perspective they're town)

i suppose part of why it doesn't bother me as much is that i'm numb to that sort of thing. even players i think should know much better do stuff like that sometimes. it's antitown, sure... but that's about as much as you can really say about it

mainly though, why it doesn't bother me that much is because it seems like a pretty bad use of his role if he's scum. i suppose this is easier to say from my POV since i don't need to guess my own alignment but it really does seem like a stupid use of the role to me if he happens to be scum

i'm not going to rule out the possibility that he's scum; i just don't think what he did is as big a deal as you seem to think it is

[zMuffinMan]

48-hour prod timers with a 24-hour grace period is pretty stupid in 8-day deadlines

[zMuffinMan]

eddie implied he was reading wisdom as scum in his post-move post, but it's not entirely clear whether that was just him reacting to wisdom's post or his actual read (he didn't stick around long enough for us to find out)

i say the move was bad if he's scum because it drew unnecessary attention (this is never a good thing)

and

wasted the role (though i suppose it depends on whether or not he's scum and who with to determine whether it was really a waste, but it's better to have the option of using it if necessary than to use it like that, IMO). like, sure, if he's scum with kokichi, it's not so bad if he was worried about G2 being lynched. but i have trouble seeing why they split the groups this way if they were going to use the role like that at the first sign of trouble

i guess if i were scum in his shoes, especially scum with kokichi, i'd be worried about town seeing a move like that and going "yeah, lynching the fuck out of you for that" and then lynching kokichi the next day... you could argue they were hoping to do that move, cause confusion and make people second-guess themselves, but i generally like to apply principles like occam's razor in scenarios like this. in absence of a decent reason to believe it happened, it's simply much better to NOT draw attention like that and risk fucking yourselves over when you're not in a position that requires it (e.g. if one scum had been lynched D1 i could maybe see scum pulling a gambit or something here, but in the position they're in today? i think it's more likely they'd be playing it safe with groups and ESPECIALLY playing it safe with drawing attention to eddie's role if he's scum)

[zMuffinMan]

i suppose you are technically right though. it could have been a ballsy move by eddie-me-kokichi

i don't really have anything to say to that other than "it wasn't"

[zMuffinMan]

yeah, i understand where you're coming from but eddie being VLA is actually part of why i don't think it came from scum. it makes the whole thing even riskier because he isn't even around to defend his actions after doing it

also, you're looking at what happened (i.e. there was some pressure before he went VLA). what you're not really accounting for is that either this was pre-planned (as in, they were going to do this swap no matter what before he went VLA, which is why i call it a bad move because it just makes no sense to me over arranging the groups differently in the first place) or they just so happened to magically predict that G2 would fall under fire before eddie went VLA

[zMuffinMan]

though i agree the swap doesn't make a whole lot of sense if he thinks wisdom is scum (which is why i say it's unclear whether that was just an on-the-spot reaction to wisdom or not)

[zMuffinMan]

oh, if you're not in any other games with eddie it might not be obvious but... i'd say check out his recent posts for why it should have been obvious

[zMuffinMan]

all are bold in thread, it is very unlikely there'd be another that is done privately

this isn't a good reason to think kokichi is scum, IMO - a sensor-type role in this setup is one i wouldn't expect to be public if it exists and i don't think the existence of a non-public role is implausible

that said, i've been thinking about it and i think a more compelling reason to think kokichi is scum is that a sensor role seems pretty broken in this setup given the amount of group-manipulation roles in play (e.g. say kokichi is town and scum did a 3-0-0 split D1 and kokichi used his role on one of the town groups; that would pretty much doom scum from the get-go)

btw, if you think kokichi's role is the odd one out here for this reason, why didn't this bother you D1?

[zMuffinMan]

I wasn't aware of how many PRs we had at the time.

eh, maybe this kind of answers my question, kinda

but you were at least aware of 4 of them (including your own) as of 1353 so i'm not sure why DV's role was the straw that broke the camel's back for you

[zMuffinMan]

i really don't feel like this is kokichi's scumgame

can you respond to 1853?

[zMuffinMan]

I did push his role as against the spirit of the setup and unlikely, remember? dramonic and I had a full sarcastic discussion about it

521? but you were saying you were confident kokichi was town after that

can't find the discussion with dram you're talking about

[zMuffinMan]

As far as I can tell nobody has refuted my logic on wanting to lynch group three

fwiw, i agree with your logic! (it's the same logic i'm using, at the very least.) though the issue i have with you is i can't see or really follow the thought processes behind the conclusions you're coming to

[zMuffinMan]

I did push his role as against the spirit of the setup and unlikely, remember? dramonic and I had a full sarcastic discussion about it

521? but you were saying you were confident kokichi was town after that

can't find the discussion with dram you're talking about

just went over this with wis my guy

i think i've literally gone over your ISO a gazillion times (i may be using literally figuratively here). i can't find whatever you're referring to. i don't see any conversations with dram (outside the mountainous speculation) and everything you said about kokichi after that D1 indicated you thought he was town telling the truth

you know, if i could feel better about you being town (or at least about the odds of you and NSG not being scum together), i'd vote G3 today. i'm pretty sure wisdom+NSG is not a thing and i'm pretty sure wisdom+you is not a thing (though, if it is, kudos to you, because everything about today has been acted out so well that i wouldn't even feel bad about losing to it)

the only thing i'm wavering on is you+NSG being a thing. because i see what i think are pretty good reasons for you+NSG being a thing. the interactions between the two of you are somewhat awkward (NSG doesn't mention you much D1 but whenever she does it's a weird soft defense to someone else's suspicion of you. plus the interaction between 101-104. you don't mention NSG much at all except to say her kokichi read is weird and then she's town) and you've both had stances on kokichi this game that don't make me feel good about either of you

gotta head to work now, will post again when i get to a PC maybe

[zMuffinMan]

@NSG,

asking for a read independent of associatives seems pretty silly to me, since associations are a pretty important part of how i read the game and it's hard to take that context out of it

but ok. on D1, i actually didn't mind your early play because i thought the way you were reading kokichi seemed townish (it was at a time where not many people were giving reads and i thought the initiative taken seemed townish - this was also partially based on the assumption that your read here would evolve or be expanded on at some point, which didn't really happen) and i thought your reaction to DV's pressure seemed town (mostly the bluntness with which you reproached him) but other than that, you left no impression on me D1 and i don't remember any of your other posts very well. you either weren't around for important events or when you were around, you provided mostly innocuous commentary (e.g. asking wisdom to check his buj read but not actually suggesting you thought buj could be scum), which makes me think you were in a pretty comfortable position (nobody really calling you scum, not in any particular danger) and you didn't want to rock the boat much

as for your play today, the thing that bothers me most is how you're interacting with wisdom. i think if i were town in your shoes and i thought wisdom was town making a game-throwing move, i'd be doing everything in my power to change his mind - instead it feels a bit like you've thrown in the towel (also i think the "enjoy throwing the game two days in a row" comment was disingenuous, given you didn't voice any discontent with his decision D1 apart from asking him to check the buj read). you haven't been doing much in the way of game-solving (e.g. unless you think all three scum are in G3, at the very least you should be doing more to sort me+eddie, though i guess your question here counts as doing that to some extent)

you are the person outside of G3 i think is most likely scum

[zMuffinMan]

muffin you of all people should know this .-.

i do know this. if DV didn't flip a PR, i would be thinking this right now. i actually figured if you were town, you'd be dead today, because leaving your role alive in this game seems stupid given it has potential to wreck scum completely. but DV died over you and i'm currently thinking that scum picked up on a PR tell from him so his reads aren't an all-important factor to me atm

[zMuffinMan]

He barely posted or addressed PRs

that's not strictly true. i went through his ISO to check to make sure i wasn't just thinking something stupid when i started thinking about why DV died. he did talk about roles (he just didn't really address any players specifically while talking about them). a quick example: 710 which was long before cakez's claim and at a point where you hadn't hard-claimed anything

[zMuffinMan]

even if they thought he was a pr they wouldn't kill him if they thought he had shit reads

i would kill any PR i thought could shake things up in a bad way (which is why i figured you'd be dead if you're town), regardless of how shit their reads are

[zMuffinMan]

suboptimal scumplay ahoy

nope. eliminate risks, take the simplest route to victory. leaving wild cards in play is suboptimal scumplay IMO

btw, NSG should really be voting G3 atm if she thinks wisdom is town. in any world where it's eddie+me+someone in G3, the game would be over now

[zMuffinMan]

have you changed your read on kokichi, NSG?

[zMuffinMan]

what's your actual read on me eddie?

[zMuffinMan]

eddie, if you were fine with riku being swapped out of the group, then why did you act so upset that wisdom didn't listen to you on the kokichi swap? or am i misunderstanding what you're saying?

[zMuffinMan]

@eddie,

i still think NSG is the most likely to be scum outside of G3 so i don't really have an issue with a G1 lynch per se

if i had a strong enough town read on you, i'd probably be fine with G3 too. that's why i keep trying to get a better feel for where your head has been at this game

(i'm only loosely keeping up with recent posts - i'll read through them properly on my lunch break)

[zMuffinMan]

eddie, do you think all 3 scum are in G3? or are you just being extra wary of me?

[zMuffinMan]

If we lynch 1 scum 1 town

We're down to 4 town 2 scum so we can afford to lynch 1 townie tomorrow right?

I think? Are we sure maf only get 1 kill? I saw eddie say this. The odds of scum being a 1 shot vig or anything isn't out of the question, I guess.

no...

scum get a single factional kill

it's in the rules

[zMuffinMan]

that i'm busy but i'm just about to head to lunch

and you guys are really spammy (#nothypocritical)

[zMuffinMan]

eddie, do you think all 3 scum are in G3? or are you just being extra wary of me?

much more the latter. tiny bit the former.

if it helps, i'm town

i probably wouldn't lie about this

[zMuffinMan]

i wouldn't lie about it ever

i don't believe in win cons

[zMuffinMan]

i guess you'll see my logic later on in the catch-up (or have you already passed it?)

i think eddie / muffin are mechanically confirmed to not be partners

given that and my wisdom townread, i can take it that there

are

at least 2 scum in group 3.

from your pov, if wisdom is town, kokichi-me and kokichi-eddie are also out of the equation mechanically given the recent string of posts

gonna read on phone soon. brb

[zMuffinMan]

muffinman, you're being kind of concise. what are you thinking right now?

i don't think concise is the word

i was more going to tell him to stop asking questions (or continue while also doing the following) and give some SHTANCES

why?

[zMuffinMan]

on a slightly less jokey note, what are you unclear about as far as my SHTANCES go?

[zMuffinMan]

what do you think my alignment is

what do you think nsg's alignment is

what do you think the best lynch is for today (I think you said group 3 conditionally) and do you think said lynch is feasibly possible

my thoughts on you and NSG haven't changed since i last talked about it - i'm more wary of it now than i was previously, if anything, because your die-hard desire for G3 over G1 is worrying

let's put it this way; you _apparently_ think kokichi is confirmed scum, right? unless kokichi is town and it's buj+someone in G3+me, either you should think i'm town or you should not want to lynch G3 (because if i'm scum with someone in G1 then lynching G3 is a bad thing). but you don't seem to think either atm (given you're voting G3 and still questioning me). or do you think buj is scum now?

[zMuffinMan]

if it's fitz / kok / REAL MAN, then i'm town

if it's me / kok / (fitz or REAL MAN), the game should already be over, but it isn't

[zMuffinMan]

right. so if i'm town and you're town and you think wisdom is town, that leaves us with either 3 scum in G3 now or G1 being the best lynch today

in any case,

i'm not the one you should be trying to convince

[zMuffinMan]

i think you're most likely scum, i think NSG is most likely scum, i'm undecided on whether the third is eddie or someone else in G3

[zMuffinMan]

right. so if i'm town and you're town and you think wisdom is town, that leaves us with either 3 scum in G3 now or G1 being the best lynch today

in any case,

i'm not the one you should be trying to convince

nsg being scum does not make her a better lynch

it does if i think you're possibly scum with her

[zMuffinMan]

by the way, when wisdom flips scum, we turbo lynch eddie tomorrow

even if you are town, i see no world in which wisdom does what he does today as scum

[zMuffinMan]

back to my pov

not sure why you're so confident it's not me+kokichi+NSG, but sure, if you think that, then that would be your POV

not sure why you should think it's mine (plus i'd rather just get a scumflip and sort through things tomorrow (the benefit of knowing you cant be NKed!) than gamble the game on you being town)

[zMuffinMan]

@eddie,

pretty much, i sincerely doubt it's 3 scum in G3 (the groupings today are just stupid in that case) and i don't really see what you're doing atm as coming from town (at least nowhere near as town as i want you to be) and i don't really think i see a world in which i don't vote G1 today

which is why i'm pretty happy just voting G1 and sorting through you and the people in G3 afterwards

so yeah. that's where i stand atm. if you are town, then sure, this is a suboptimal decision. but consider it from my pov and then maybe you'll understand why i disagree...

Vote: Group 1

P-EDIT: seeing REAL MAN vote G2 just makes me lol

[zMuffinMan]

Please don't feel bad about what happened here, NSG.

Also, a quick note to explain what happened at the end of yesterday: I'm at work (shouldn't really be posting at all but I have downtime between waiting on emails, queries running, stuff compiling and regular breaks), I didn't want to attempt a co-ordinated hammer when I couldn't guarantee I'd be at my computer at any given moment (I was wary of Wisdom doing a quick unvote), so I asked Kokichi to post a bit around the same time as me to "confirm" we aren't scum together (with the aim of later hammering). I probably should have hammered immediately after Kokichi voted, though - I was just being extra cautious. Sorry if anyone thought that was bad manners or whatever!

[zMuffinMan]

I'm fine with it being shared (now rather than later if you want). I don't think there's anything sensitive in there; it's 20ish pages of me spamming stuff.

[zMuffinMan]

I felt so, so bad for you, seeing how hard you were trying, but I couldn't really help you out. I think you played really well, though.

I don't think any town player played bad (even though I have a feeling people are going to criticise Wisdom, his reads were pretty good D1 apart from Kokichi and D2 he had at least me worried before Eddie did his swap). This setup is just weird and allows scum to play mind-games.

[zMuffinMan]

First line @NSG obv.

[zMuffinMan]

I don't think town played badly. People making mistakes doesn't mean they played badly. REAL MAN being MIA D2 wasn't a good thing though, yeah.

Oh, and everything I said about theory was 100% unrelated to my alignment, Buj. If you want to talk theory, feel free to ask questions, but I will largely be saying the same thing I said in game. Lynching G2 without a swap OR after swapping a single player was the best approach, even without the power of hindsight. And your theories D2 were flawed because, well, Eddie was town...

[zMuffinMan]

I fundamentally disagree with your strategy

Uh... OK...

The scenario that played out D1 here was exactly the sort of thing that following the theory I outlined would have avoided.

You can disagree all you want, but that just makes you wrong. It's simply not a good idea to trust reads over doing the logical thing when doing the logical thing has little downside and trusting reads over it potentially does.

[zMuffinMan]

Still think with some tinkering you could use long objective arguments as to what is the theoritically best move for town as a scum clue.

The only difference between what I would have said here as town and what I actually said here as scum is that as town, I would have been much more aggressively asserting that my opinion was the right one and that it should be followed.

It really had nothing to do with my alignment. (Also, my ISO wasn't anywhere near as dominated by that discussion as you're asserting it was; I did pretend to scum-hunt in between it all!)

[zMuffinMan]

I still think the game is fine if all are vanilla roles.

This is also a provably incorrect statement.

[zMuffinMan]

It's easy to look at how this game played out and say the PRs weren't good for the game, but that seems like too simplistic a way to view the setup as a whole. I'm not going to argue with you about this particular incarnation.

The fact of the matter is that if this setup were mountainous, town EV would be atrocious.

Fun fact: we did not actually plan Kokichi's guilty (that was something he did on his own, lol) so the point about lynching the group scum set up is a bit flawed. Also just disagree with that statement in general - it's better than not having a scum flip, at the very least.

[zMuffinMan]

is incorrect; the town's win odds if it reaches 5:1 and they still have a nightkill are 5/9. To win, scum has to dodge the lynch at 2:2:2 groups (2/3 chance), then dodge the lynch again at 1:1:1 lylo (2/3 chance), for total scum EV of (2/3) * (2/3) = 4/9.

Yep, sorry, you're right (I messed up the numbers in my head).

Still, in this even split scenario, this was assuming a D2 scum lynch (2/3). In the 1/3 chance it was a D2 all-town lynch, the odds for scum were 7/9 (assuming all even splits). So 2/3*4/9 + 1/3*7/9 = 5/9 overall, and that's just assuming the most vanilla splits possible. (Unless I'm doing the maths wrong again? Feel free to correct me if so.)

[zMuffinMan]

OK, yeah, I actually just realised I'm going horribly wrong in my calculations, I think. If we assume random lynching at 2:1:1, scum's overall chance of winning with vanilla splits is actually 39/81 overall (which is actually worse for scum, unless my maths is wrong - optimal scum strategy with random lynches is to never be in the group of 2 at 2:1:1). If it's non-random lynching (e.g. town always lynches one of the 1s at 2:1:1, the equivalent of no-lynching at mylo), then it's 5/9 overall still (with optimal strategy being to stay in the group of 2).

So it's not as bad for town as I first assumed.

That said, without crunching numbers, I think non-vanilla splits will probably favour scum (e.g. 7/3/3 D1 with all 3 in one of the groups of 3 gives scum a 1/3 chance to win D1, a 1/3 chance to lose D1 and a 1/3 chance to have a big advantage going into D2).

I should probably actually sit down and work this out properly at some point instead of doing half-baked maths while I'm bored at work.

[zMuffinMan]

Yeah... I think I realised shortly after D1 started that sensor was too absurdly strong a role to have in the game. I think I mentioned it in the scum thread too. Then Kokichi claimed it and I was just like... "OK then!"

[zMuffinMan]

Oh, actually, I think pretty much all of the assumptions about the reasoning behind the splits was wrong. What Wisdom wasn't factoring into it was my prediction about how Eddie would use his role (thus making the original split not matter as much so long as Eddie used his role within the scope of predictable behaviour).

Actually, my prediction was totally opposite to what I expected to happen, but somewhat serendipitously it ended up with the same results. I wasn't aware Eddie was actually scum-reading Kokichi that hard - everything he said about Kokichi D1 had me fooled!

[zMuffinMan]

No, I predicted Eddie would get paranoid of me and swap Kokichi out. I didn't expect the other way around. I also predicted he might do some other moves that potentially benefited us (but he didn't). His Kokichi read D1 really did have me fooled.

[zMuffinMan]

There were multiple ideas built into the groups D2. None of them ended up panning out the way I expected them to, but they more or less led to the same results (e.g. Wisdom+NSG was a group designed to make people question why it was a group... But I thought people would be suspicious of Wisdom over NSG...)

[zMuffinMan]

Eddie+me+Kokichi was also a group designed to pretty much bait Wisdom's suspicion. Which ended up happening, but... with results that weren't fully planned out.

[zMuffinMan]

Actually, up until the last minute we were going with a different split (G1: Wisdom-NSG-Fitz, G2: Eddie-Kokichi-REAL MAN, G3: Buj-Me). Then HF came in and changed it to the original one I suggested...

Kokichi's reaction:

Oh my God. No not that one

[zMuffinMan]

It was partially that (I thought people would be less inclined to give you credit after D1), partially predicting Eddie's role usage (which ended up being right for the wrong reasons).

[zMuffinMan]

Also, it was just an initial suggestion - we actually changed it up and decided to go with something else after looking at the pros and cons of other ideas, but then HF swapped it back to the original suggestion... Shortly before night ended.

So it was an accidental grouping.

It was hard to predict how different people would be reading the game after D1 though. I didn't predict Buj would stick so hard to his town read on you. As for Eddie, NSG and REAL MAN, none of them were really present at the end of D1 so they were pretty much wild cards in a lot of senses.

Any groupings would have been risky for us, tbh.

[zMuffinMan]

I think I had the same idea for that G2 (Eddie moving Kokichi out before lynching it), but... Yeah, that also would have played out differently than expected because of Eddie's Kokichi read being a trap lol.

[zMuffinMan]

I dunno, there were a lot of failed ideas in it and also obviously some limitations due to what happened D1. I would really like to play this game again (possibly with randomised role distribution, I don't even really care about balance). I want to be town in it.

[zMuffinMan]

I was parroting me. Or what I thought I'd say if I were town. You just happened to agree with my view on it.