Open 724 - Pick Your Power X/Y [Endgame]

[Eddie Cane]

really

[Taly]

HOLY SHIT YAY. I'M FINALLY HOME AFTER A 13 HOUR CAR RIDE.

HAHAHAHAHHAAHA!!!! On my computer too!!!

Definitely now have the ability AND motivation to put more effort into the game, which has fallen into a very bothersome apathetic state, so FUCK THAT NOISE.

Going to do the ISOs I said I would and completely evaluate my reads because I'm really pissed about my accuracy in this game.

I'm pretty sure my posting style has changed a little, honestly. From having to rely on the phone so much.

Walls will come up - at the latest - tomorrow.

[Taly]

[SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis]

Why should we prioritize roleblocker?

Since because we KNOW that either SCUM picked the roleblocker AND we have a LIMITED pool of people whom CAN be a roleblocker in {davesaz, me, janitor, eddie, taly, mutant} and an EVEN MORE limited pool of who is LIKELY to have picked it based on NIGHT ACTIONS and by DRAFT in {davesaz, me, janitor}. Even less likely is that it is DAVESAZ, so if there is a roleblocker it is BETWEEN myself and janitor!

It is ALSO possible that ICONEUM is LYING, which will be REVEALED if that is the case after Janitor or I am LYNCHED.

I do not perceive a logical reason to lynch within a LARGER pool when we have a pool that is ENSURED to have a scum in it.

OK now I'm confused. You acknowledge that a potential RB is either you or Janitor but you don't want to lynch Janitor because you don't think he's RB? Are you just scum with Janitor?

AUSUKA-CHAN reread what I have been saying since because that is NOT what I meant -____-;;

[SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis]

Ircher with your VCA, I preposterise that SCUM have been letting town MISLYNCH themselves and have done very little work in actually PUSHING wagons - when I am not SICK I will furthered DISCUSS why I possess the acclimation that this is the verity of the complications beset before us

[yessiree]

Okay SIMYK replaces himself.

[SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis]

that all starts with the assumption iconeum is town

That's the logical conclusion I'm getting given the most probable reason the worst was killed.

Eh??

I would preposterise that Ahiru-tan is scum!Ico’s BEST shot for a kill considering he was VERY likely to possess a power role AND he was widely townread...

Okay SIMYK replaces himself.

Yatta!

[SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis]

I am SOMEWHAT ANNOYED that only NOW people are CONSIDERING davesaz as MAFIA, as I was the one whom CONSISTENTLY pushed that read...

WHEN I possess availability LATre tonight I will EXPAND on this read ^_^

[Eddie Cane]

welcome simyk

how caught up are you?

[Ircher]

that all starts with the assumption iconeum is town

That's the logical conclusion I'm getting given the most probable reason the worst was killed.

Eh??

I would preposterise that Ahiru-tan is scum!Ico’s BEST shot for a kill considering he was VERY likely to possess a power role AND he was widely townread...

Okay SIMYK replaces himself.

Yatta!

Is this a scum claim?

[davesaz]

Intent on Janitor.
I thought we should lynch there yesterday.

[The Janitor]

I'm still town. But it seems all of you don't buy it. Neither dave nor Ico have been more townie than me I feel. But if you really think you need to lynch me to go ahead and win, then by all means...

Still think there's scum in Ico/Neighborizer picks. If you lynch Ico you have disclosure. Ico town --> RB in the neighborizer picks, Ico scum --> scum lynched.

[mutantdevle]

Intent on Janitor.

Again, please don't hammer until I have come to some kind of a conclusion.

I want to have a conclusion out before the night so y'all at least have something to go off of if I'm night killed.

[mutantdevle]

The RB / doc slot occurs in 75% of games.

The doc slot occurs in the {2nd to 5th} range in the draft order whereas the RBer slot occurs in 2 separate brackets of {2nd/3rd} and {7th/8th}. Hence we can conclude the slot is probably in the upper half of the players still alive.

The Janitor fits the {7th/8th} bracket for RBer. SIMYK also fits the lower end of the doc bracket (which, if we consider this bracket to be for the RBer / doc slot in general, we can narrow it down to just a RBer bracket based on how we know this role exists). I'm doubtful SIMYK could be the role blocker.

Mechanical evidence backs up that Janitor IS the RBer. <-- Again, don't lynch yet. But we are never not lynching him today.

[Ausuka]

I think we already knew that.

[mutantdevle]

The cop / redirector slot occurs in 92% of games.

The cop slot appears in the {1st to 3rd} range but overwhelmingly in the #1 slot. There have been 2 instances where players have gotten cop much further down the draft order but there is no pattern for this position. The redirector has only ever been chosen twice, once in the first position and once in the 13th. Aka, opposite ends of the scale.

Of the 9 cops that have been in this setup, 100% of them have been town. Of the 2 redirectors that have been in this setup, 100% of them have been scum. Townies go cop, scummies go redirector.

We KNOW Icon is the cop thanks to Lalendra's role cop investigation. Remember, she flipped town. She had no reason to lie about her result.

[mutantdevle]

The neighbouriser / fruit vendor slot occurs in 83% of games.

There is no pattern to which position in the draft is more likely to get the neighbouriser slot. This role has never appeared in the same slot twice. Obviously, Ircher is the Neighbouriser. This fits this pattern as the 5th slot has never been a neighbouriser before.

In total, the neighbouriser / fruit vendor slot has appeared in 10/13 games. 24 people overall have attempted to receive this slot (10 got the slot, the other 14 tried to). Out of these 24 people, 23 of them have been town.

That means this slot has a 96% town rate.

[Ausuka]

could Taly be scum?

[mutantdevle]

I'm not a reads guy but if y'all want some advice on your reads it would be to consider both Icon and Ircher as town because their roles make them mechanically so. There is 0 doubt that either of them could be the roles they claim to be.

[Ausuka]

Ircher was already locktown and Icon is still debateable. A Mafia Cop could definitely exist, 2 people is not a big enough sample size to judge whether mafia could go for that or not.

[mutantdevle]

could Taly be scum?

Certainly. I plan to investigate everyone properly later but from what I've looked at so far there's nothing to solid confirm them as town.

[Ausuka]

Well yeah but multiple people have him as locktown I believe.

[mutantdevle]

Ircher was already locktown and Icon is still debateable. A Mafia Cop could definitely exist, 2 people is not a big enough sample size to judge whether mafia could go for that or not.

Then focus on the 9 sample size that says cops are town.

Furthermore, there can't both be a scum cop and a scum role blocker. We have mechanical evidence to confirm the theory that Icon is a town cop being role blocked by a scum role blocker who happens to specifically be Janitor - who can further be incriminated by his shitty play.

If you're scum reading the janitor, especially as the role blocker, then Icon should be town for you.

[mutantdevle]

Well yeah but multiple people have him as locktown I believe.

That has very little impact on what I'm doing.

If I think Taly is mechanically town, then there's no problem.

If I think Taly is mechanically scum, I will push them and attempt to break open people's reads with solid evidence.

If I don't think mechanics can conclusively determine Taly's alignment, then obviously I will default back to reads, suggesting town.

[Ausuka]

Then focus on the 9 sample size that says cops are town.

Yes, all cops choose town. That much was obvious already. What I'm focusing on is what scum chooses- what Ico!scum would choose. For that we have 2 scum who chose Redirector. I don't see how, from that, we can tell that Ico!scum would choose redirector.