Micro 803: The Coalition
- Mathdino
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/confirm VT
i fully intend on winning D1- Mathdino
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sure you can
HURT WITH A BLADE: Hiraki- Mathdino
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to be clear the chance that we actually win on D1 by choosing randomly is 1/6 or 16.7%
the chance that any individual townie wins as long as they're in the townbloc is 3/16 or 18.8%
chance that you win if you're not in the townbloc is 10.7%- Mathdino
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this was wrong, just fixed itIn post 14, Mathdino wrote:the chance that any individual townie wins as long as they're in the townbloc is 3/14 or 21.4%- Mathdino
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i don't like this actually
lowkey thought the lynch votes would be alongside the coalition
still
VOTE: Myloninja
HEAL: Myloninja
discuss- Mathdino
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are you OMGUSing him literally killing you- Mathdino
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The lack of rvs is a serious problem tho
What's your counterproposal- Mathdino
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yeah but i don't like preemptively indicating when i'm townreading people :/- Mathdino
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you have no idea how uncomfortable i find this game
i hate giving out like
badges of honour and towniness
let's start here: who is the easiest to read in this playerlist- Mathdino
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i mean the problem is that myloninja's town meta is literally not posting and his scum meta is posting
that's the easiest shit to mimick- Mathdino
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preliminarily yes but i've trained myself to not spew reads all over the place before everyone's posted real content
besides that i'm used to scumhunting off shit like wagons and VCA
so arms tied behind my back kinda thing
i don't currently have a model of how scum WOULD go about winning this- Mathdino
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okay i figured it out
this goddamn setup has 0 stakes to start off with
it would make more sense if it was "generate a 4 person townbloc on D2"
but as it is, there's nothing that would generate reactions and almost everything is NAI
i will tell you this
VOTE: Invisibility
is what i would be doing in a normal game- Mathdino
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are you doing that because you agree with me on invisibility or because you need me to sign off on the townbloc in order to go through with it- Mathdino
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Why, Mylo- Mathdino
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I assume this is because I'm not posting content
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Believe it or not, this is partially intentional
I think I have a model for how scum behaves in this setup but observer effect can ruin it on page 6- Mathdino
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I'm concerned that since scums wincon requires at least one of them to temporarily hardcore town it up
It might be impossible to win d1
And an info coalition might be better than an attempt at winning- Mathdino
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Like this is low stakes and low responsibility
It feels like it's easier to town it up here than any other type of setup, even kingmaker
That's part of why I'm not trying to powertown
Seems pointless, NAI, and would impact my actual reading ability- Mathdino
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You can blame a wagon for being wrong
Can't really blame the coalition
Everyone has so much less responsibility here- Mathdino
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As in we should agree on who's the most lynchable within the coalition if and when things go wrong
If we have 3 or 4 definite townreads, one should be difficult to read and likely to win as scum- Mathdino
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I mean that's a decent reason to keep you outside the coalition
I guess I'm psyching myself out
The thing is, if and when this fails, we ALWAYS lynch inside the coalition directly after
And then we're on our own in 1:6 mountainous even if we succeed
So I'm trying to figure out what puts us in the best position
I. E. If someone is easy to read later on, they should stay out- Mathdino
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Okay so I'd actually like to fuck the scum over and put them both in the coalition
My proposal:
1. An obvtownie that everyone agrees to neverlynch
2. Mathdino, because otherwise there's gonna be shittons of paranoia about me
3/4. Both scum
5. The 3rd pick for scum
Lynch everyone except the obvtownie and win- Mathdino
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Then we'd better put both scum in amirite- Mathdino
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Cool then you can both be in the townbloc- Mathdino
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I will admit that I have not completely thought this through and probably should have discussed this strategy with NSG prior to gamestart
So if I come up with a rebuttal I will get back to you
My concern is that worst case scenario (I think in worst case more than best case)
We fail the coalition, lynch inside the coalition, and mislynch
That's basically a loss already- Mathdino
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Yep your rebuttal passes
I'm glad I participated in the thread today
Back to observation- Mathdino
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You and wisdom because of strong meta manipulation and participating enough to never be the ideal lynch- Mathdino
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I would also argue tho that the best players can be BoPd by putting them in the coalition and letting them choose the d1 lynch- Mathdino
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...i unsubtley mean myself and wisdom when it comes to being able to find 4 town on d1- Mathdino
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ITT: everyone is town except the 2 that are literally not posting- Mathdino
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Yeah but I'd rather not be wrong about something- Mathdino
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you're correct that i'm not into thisIn post 191, Myloninja13 wrote:And Mathdino just isn't playing like he's into this. Like, I know he's staying back and all but it really kinda seems like he's avoiding putting out proper opinions on people.
my take is either we win immediately or we have a long slog of a micro with a sub-20% chance of winning
guns blazing just doesn't feel appropriate here, i can't think in "okay how many mislynches and how many conftown do we have"
In post 194, Wisdom wrote:regarding math i have this feeling that hes intentionally not playing very protown because that's whats expected from scum him
the thing is that i think i AM playing pro-townIn post 196, Wisdom wrote:but idk how scum math is and if he tries to play to townmeta or not
I just feel like wed be normally be at the samelength here about townies best interest being to be strongly town and we arent
all day i've been modeling how scum "should" play here in terms of interactives, meta manipulation, votes, etc
but 2 players have basically not checked in and i detest handing out town badges when 1/4 of the rest of the game has no content
i intend to fully gamesolve
i don't believe individual reading is really appropriate here unless you're good at gutreading or soulreading, which i'm not
that's dumbIn post 195, the worst wrote:Math is the #1 player who we should probably try and avoid reading too hard until closer to EOD
1. you have literally never seen me as scum
2. the game that i thought was my best scum performance tonally (newbie 1864), i got caught off tone and had a big endgame discussion about why i was scum D1
i have a compromise though- Mathdino
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and you ninja'd meIn post 201, the worst wrote:viewtopic.php?f=11&t=75961
If you're into it I found this game a really good read (esp for a newbie). Problem is it just finished so he'd know what we're looking for.
End of discussion for now tho dude
pedit: northsidegal? More like NINJAsidegal
@Mylo, worst, Wisdom: Tell you what, I offer this. I have lots of thoughts that I do not think are appropriate to share.
I'll have NSG set up a PT and start chatting her a "journal" of sorts, and I'll post it later.
I'm really not concerned about not powertowning right now because
- I think you guys underestimate how fucking long it's going to take to get 5 townies to agree on each other with a 3 week deadline. Unless everyone is a pushover and the entire group is just some dumb shit like Mylo-sheeping-Duck-sheeping-Wisdom.
- Call it overconfidence but I especially don't think 5 townies are going to be able to settle on definite townreads before I sign off on it. TECHNICALLY this should be my strong suit, in that I'm great at townhunting and not great at scumhunting.
But my early games are also incredibly awkward and I'm kind of regretting not waiting for a replace-in spot or playing under a hidden alt so I don't get NK'd.
I want to say I'll be sorted by the NK because that's kind of a meme in games with me but this is Mountainous so fuck everything, all bets are off.- Mathdino
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fuck. me.In post 206, Mathdino wrote:- I think you guys underestimate how fucking long it's going to take to get 5 townies to agree on each other with a 3 week deadline. Unless everyone is a pushover and the entire group is just some dumb shit like Mylo-sheeping-Duck-sheeping-Wisdom.- Mathdino
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i would like everyone to unvote themselves so the coalition doesn't get lolhammered thank you
unless your coalition has me in it in which case i promise not to lolhammer by withholding my self-vote- Mathdino
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i really don't think anything i said would've impacted anythingIn post 208, the worst wrote:GDI MATH
but for the purposes of reading you, please explain
their scumminess makes everyone else townierIn post 209, Wisdom wrote:
what do lurkers have to do with you expressing if someone is town or notIn post 202, Mathdino wrote:but 2 players have basically not checked in and i detest handing out town badges when 1/4 of the rest of the game has no content
their towniness would affirm scum in the current coalition
if we were deciding on a lynch then sure, fine, i'll hop on wagons all days
but coalitioning requires a full gamesolve and i'm currently very commitment-averse to showing my hand- Mathdino
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invisibility is obviously an alt right? i was just about to ask him for offsite meta but it looks like that's not gonna work
VOTE: Not_Mafia- Mathdino
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if everyone is a pushover and the entire coalition is basically led by 2 people, with 3 people who just wanna be in the townbloc so they'll vote for anythingIn post 213, Wisdom wrote:
I dont get what youre trying to say hereIn post 206, Mathdino wrote:Unless everyone is a pushover and the entire group is just some dumb shit like Mylo-sheeping-Duck-sheeping-Wisdom.
then phase 1 will end quickly, which would be very bad for my readability going forward
Edit: is 215 the stuff that you thought i was trying not to say? because that wasn't a huge secret, i just wasn't articulating it well lol
granted i have no interest in articulating anything well sooooOOOO
and yeah i always get into the coalition by just being myself and faking reads
invisibility really seems like an alt by post history- Mathdino
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N_M if you could decapitate someone who would it be and why- Mathdino
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i mean if he hammers a townbloc without himself in it he's just obviously scum so- Mathdino
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>having a townread by PoE
>I lol'd- Mathdino
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I'm not entirely sure why you were townreading him in the first place
WIFOMing me into being scum is super questionable considering the amount of theoretical control I could have over a setup like this- Mathdino
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Like the way he's framing me as being scum
In terms of no shit Mathdino knows his own meta
Leaves me with no behavior besides townslipping or agreeing with his reads that would give him a townread on me- Mathdino
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Who else have I been shading?- Mathdino
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Me not posting all my reads doesn't mean I'm confused lol
The suggestions about strategy were theoretical and could've taken place in the setup thread
They won't affect how scum will play the game- Mathdino
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Just throwing ideas out there without committing, don't mind me
UNVOTE:
Once everyones reads stabilise I'll go for a solve
I need more from Not_Mafia- Mathdino
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Other than no one currently?In post 350, Invisibility wrote:math are you going to heal anyone else?
Im still waiting- Mathdino
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TW, Hiraki was one of the people in my game who refused to lynch Kiana Kaslanas vigclaim lol
Confidence is not equivalent to accuracy- Mathdino
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Sure but the point is to show that you always project confidence on like everything
My understanding is that Ausuka is incredibly easy to read
So what are people's take on her play then? And who has relevant experience?
If Hiraki doesn't, there's little reason to sheep him on that basis- Mathdino
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Of course it is
I question the fact that there's disagreement at all on Ausukas alignment and I'm wondering if you have relevant experience there or if you're just bloviating like in clownspiracy or red flag- Mathdino
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I didn't say I think you're scum
But you don't seem to have many reasons for Ausuka scum
Got something to share?- Mathdino
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Over half the game ago, I've since disavowed that strategy and I don't think disagreeing with it is alignment indicative- Mathdino
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I basically did answer it
I'm just confused at people having trouble reading Ausuka mainly- Mathdino
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No read, I haven't done ISOs yetIn post 398, the worst wrote:can you explain your read of her currently in a reasonable amount of detail without ruining your plan?
pedit: NM I love you
Im being lazy for now- Mathdino
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I'm confused that people simultaneously consider her easy to read but also flip flop on her alignmentIn post 403, Hiraki wrote:So let's be clear here -
1) You misrepped me just to make a point that I've been wrong but not actually because I never said anything that you said, I just didn't vote because of the circumstances of that game.
2) You've actively criticized people for reading Ausuka without knowing anything while also simultaneously saying that you think, from what you've heard, that she is easy to read.
3) You are confused that people are having trouble reading Ausuka which leads us to:
You have no read on Ausuka.
?
I have not personally gone through the time to sort her, no- Mathdino
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You could say that yeah- Mathdino
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Don't see how this is at all personalIn post 410, Hiraki wrote:
Won't replace into your games anymore then.In post 407, Mathdino wrote:You could say that yeah
It's not like I don't meta people that don't play my games- Mathdino
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When this fails you guys are probably going to assume I did nothing all day because my scumbuddy is being townread and I just let it happen
I'm honestly surprised no one is paranoid considering you seem to be pairing me with other people who aren't really doing shit
This setup cannot allow a lurker scumteam
I'll get into this for real tomorrow tho
Fair warning yall gonna get ample opportunity to say I'm scrambling
Yknow despite the fact that not doing shit all day was literally part of my plan- Mathdino
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No preliminary reads because Im gonna be isoing and metadiving and I might accidentally colour my own reads lol
Keep talking in the meantime pls- Mathdino
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Nothing I've done is particularly scummy unless you already know my metaIn post 432, Hiraki wrote:Being scummy was part of my plan all along! Believe me!
I'm partially playing to someone else's town meta tbh- Mathdino
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wait do you actually think that me doing that to you was scummy? or on a broader level, misrepping in general
i thought you were just getting pissed off on a personal level
like i literally did that to you last game when i was town and you were scum - Mathdino
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