Micro 803: The Coalition

[Mathdino]

/confirm VT

i fully intend on winning D1

[Mathdino]

sure you can

HURT WITH A BLADE: Hiraki

[Mathdino]

to be clear the chance that we actually win on D1 by choosing randomly is 1/6 or 16.7%

the chance that any individual townie wins as long as they're in the townbloc is 3/16 or 18.8%

chance that you win if you're not in the townbloc is 10.7%

[Mathdino]

the chance that any individual townie wins as long as they're in the townbloc is 3/14 or 21.4%

this was wrong, just fixed it

[Mathdino]

i don't like this actually

lowkey thought the lynch votes would be alongside the coalition

still

VOTE: Myloninja
HEAL: Myloninja
discuss

[Mathdino]

are you OMGUSing him literally killing you

[Mathdino]

The lack of rvs is a serious problem tho

What's your counterproposal

[Mathdino]

yeah but i don't like preemptively indicating when i'm townreading people :/

[Mathdino]

you have no idea how uncomfortable i find this game

i hate giving out like

badges of honour and towniness

let's start here: who is the easiest to read in this playerlist

[Mathdino]

i mean the problem is that myloninja's town meta is literally not posting and his scum meta is posting

that's the easiest shit to mimick

[Mathdino]

preliminarily yes but i've trained myself to not spew reads all over the place before everyone's posted real content

besides that i'm used to scumhunting off shit like wagons and VCA

so arms tied behind my back kinda thing

i don't currently have a model of how scum WOULD go about winning this

[Mathdino]

okay i figured it out

this goddamn setup has 0 stakes to start off with

it would make more sense if it was "generate a 4 person townbloc on D2"

but as it is, there's nothing that would generate reactions and almost everything is NAI

i will tell you this
VOTE: Invisibility
is what i would be doing in a normal game

[Mathdino]

are you doing that because you agree with me on invisibility or because you need me to sign off on the townbloc in order to go through with it

[Mathdino]

Why, Mylo

[Mathdino]

HEAL: hiraki
HURT: math

I assume this is because I'm not posting content

[Mathdino]

Believe it or not, this is partially intentional

I think I have a model for how scum behaves in this setup but observer effect can ruin it on page 6

[Mathdino]

I'm concerned that since scums wincon requires at least one of them to temporarily hardcore town it up
It might be impossible to win d1
And an info coalition might be better than an attempt at winning

[Mathdino]

Like this is low stakes and low responsibility
It feels like it's easier to town it up here than any other type of setup, even kingmaker
That's part of why I'm not trying to powertown
Seems pointless, NAI, and would impact my actual reading ability

[Mathdino]

You can blame a wagon for being wrong
Can't really blame the coalition
Everyone has so much less responsibility here

[Mathdino]

As in we should agree on who's the most lynchable within the coalition if and when things go wrong
If we have 3 or 4 definite townreads, one should be difficult to read and likely to win as scum

[Mathdino]

I mean that's a decent reason to keep you outside the coalition

I guess I'm psyching myself out

The thing is, if and when this fails, we ALWAYS lynch inside the coalition directly after

And then we're on our own in 1:6 mountainous even if we succeed

So I'm trying to figure out what puts us in the best position

I. E. If someone is easy to read later on, they should stay out

[Mathdino]

Okay so I'd actually like to fuck the scum over and put them both in the coalition

My proposal:
1. An obvtownie that everyone agrees to neverlynch
2. Mathdino, because otherwise there's gonna be shittons of paranoia about me
3/4. Both scum
5. The 3rd pick for scum

Lynch everyone except the obvtownie and win

[Mathdino]

Then we'd better put both scum in amirite

[Mathdino]

Cool then you can both be in the townbloc

[Mathdino]

I will admit that I have not completely thought this through and probably should have discussed this strategy with NSG prior to gamestart

So if I come up with a rebuttal I will get back to you

My concern is that worst case scenario (I think in worst case more than best case)
We fail the coalition, lynch inside the coalition, and mislynch
That's basically a loss already

[Mathdino]

Yep your rebuttal passes
I'm glad I participated in the thread today

Back to observation

[Mathdino]

You and wisdom because of strong meta manipulation and participating enough to never be the ideal lynch

[Mathdino]

I would also argue tho that the best players can be BoPd by putting them in the coalition and letting them choose the d1 lynch

[Mathdino]

...i unsubtley mean myself and wisdom when it comes to being able to find 4 town on d1

[Mathdino]

ITT: everyone is town except the 2 that are literally not posting

[Mathdino]

Yeah but I'd rather not be wrong about something

[Mathdino]

And Mathdino just isn't playing like he's into this. Like, I know he's staying back and all but it really kinda seems like he's avoiding putting out proper opinions on people.

you're correct that i'm not into this
my take is either we win immediately or we have a long slog of a micro with a sub-20% chance of winning
guns blazing just doesn't feel appropriate here, i can't think in "okay how many mislynches and how many conftown do we have"

regarding math i have this feeling that hes intentionally not playing very protown because that's whats expected from scum him

but idk how scum math is and if he tries to play to townmeta or not
I just feel like wed be normally be at the samelength here about townies best interest being to be strongly town and we arent

the thing is that i think i AM playing pro-town
all day i've been modeling how scum "should" play here in terms of interactives, meta manipulation, votes, etc
but 2 players have basically not checked in and i detest handing out town badges when 1/4 of the rest of the game has no content

i intend to fully gamesolve
i don't believe individual reading is really appropriate here unless you're good at gutreading or soulreading, which i'm not

Math is the #1 player who we should probably try and avoid reading too hard until closer to EOD

that's dumb
1. you have literally never seen me as scum
2. the game that i thought was my best scum performance tonally (newbie 1864), i got caught off tone and had a big endgame discussion about why i was scum D1

i have a compromise though

[Mathdino]

viewtopic.php?f=11&t=75961

If you're into it I found this game a really good read (esp for a newbie). Problem is it just finished so he'd know what we're looking for.

End of discussion for now tho dude

pedit: northsidegal? More like NINJAsidegal

and you ninja'd me

@Mylo, worst, Wisdom: Tell you what, I offer this. I have lots of thoughts that I do not think are appropriate to share.

I'll have NSG set up a PT and start chatting her a "journal" of sorts, and I'll post it later.

I'm really not concerned about not powertowning right now because

- I think you guys underestimate how fucking long it's going to take to get 5 townies to agree on each other with a 3 week deadline. Unless everyone is a pushover and the entire group is just some dumb shit like Mylo-sheeping-Duck-sheeping-Wisdom.

- Call it overconfidence but I especially don't think 5 townies are going to be able to settle on definite townreads before I sign off on it. TECHNICALLY this should be my strong suit, in that I'm great at townhunting and not great at scumhunting.
But my early games are also incredibly awkward and I'm kind of regretting not waiting for a replace-in spot or playing under a hidden alt so I don't get NK'd.

I want to say I'll be sorted by the NK because that's kind of a meme in games with me but this is Mountainous so fuck everything, all bets are off.

[Mathdino]

HEAL: mylo
HEAL: wisdom

this is a good block for now

- I think you guys underestimate how fucking long it's going to take to get 5 townies to agree on each other with a 3 week deadline. Unless everyone is a pushover and the entire group is just some dumb shit like Mylo-sheeping-Duck-sheeping-Wisdom.

fuck. me.

[Mathdino]

i would like everyone to unvote themselves so the coalition doesn't get lolhammered thank you

unless your coalition has me in it in which case i promise not to lolhammer by withholding my self-vote

[Mathdino]

GDI MATH

i really don't think anything i said would've impacted anything

but for the purposes of reading you, please explain

but 2 players have basically not checked in and i detest handing out town badges when 1/4 of the rest of the game has no content

what do lurkers have to do with you expressing if someone is town or not

their scumminess makes everyone else townier
their towniness would affirm scum in the current coalition

if we were deciding on a lynch then sure, fine, i'll hop on wagons all days

but coalitioning requires a full gamesolve and i'm currently very commitment-averse to showing my hand

[Mathdino]

invisibility is obviously an alt right? i was just about to ask him for offsite meta but it looks like that's not gonna work

VOTE: Not_Mafia

[Mathdino]

Unless everyone is a pushover and the entire group is just some dumb shit like Mylo-sheeping-Duck-sheeping-Wisdom.

I dont get what youre trying to say here

if everyone is a pushover and the entire coalition is basically led by 2 people, with 3 people who just wanna be in the townbloc so they'll vote for anything

then phase 1 will end quickly, which would be very bad for my readability going forward

Edit: is 215 the stuff that you thought i was trying not to say? because that wasn't a huge secret, i just wasn't articulating it well lol
granted i have no interest in articulating anything well sooooOOOO
and yeah i always get into the coalition by just being myself and faking reads

invisibility really seems like an alt by post history

[Mathdino]

N_M if you could decapitate someone who would it be and why

[Mathdino]

i mean if he hammers a townbloc without himself in it he's just obviously scum so

[Mathdino]

>having a townread by PoE
>I lol'd

[Mathdino]

I'm not entirely sure why you were townreading him in the first place

WIFOMing me into being scum is super questionable considering the amount of theoretical control I could have over a setup like this

[Mathdino]

Like the way he's framing me as being scum
In terms of no shit Mathdino knows his own meta

Leaves me with no behavior besides townslipping or agreeing with his reads that would give him a townread on me

[Mathdino]

Who else have I been shading?

[Mathdino]

Me not posting all my reads doesn't mean I'm confused lol

The suggestions about strategy were theoretical and could've taken place in the setup thread

They won't affect how scum will play the game

[Mathdino]

Just throwing ideas out there without committing, don't mind me

UNVOTE:

Once everyones reads stabilise I'll go for a solve

I need more from Not_Mafia

[Mathdino]

math are you going to heal anyone else?

Other than no one currently?

Im still waiting

[Mathdino]

TW, Hiraki was one of the people in my game who refused to lynch Kiana Kaslanas vigclaim lol
Confidence is not equivalent to accuracy

[Mathdino]

Sure but the point is to show that you always project confidence on like everything

My understanding is that Ausuka is incredibly easy to read

So what are people's take on her play then? And who has relevant experience?

If Hiraki doesn't, there's little reason to sheep him on that basis

[Mathdino]

Of course it is

I question the fact that there's disagreement at all on Ausukas alignment and I'm wondering if you have relevant experience there or if you're just bloviating like in clownspiracy or red flag

[Mathdino]

I didn't say I think you're scum

But you don't seem to have many reasons for Ausuka scum

Got something to share?

[Mathdino]

Over half the game ago, I've since disavowed that strategy and I don't think disagreeing with it is alignment indicative

[Mathdino]

I basically did answer it

I'm just confused at people having trouble reading Ausuka mainly

[Mathdino]

can you explain your read of her currently in a reasonable amount of detail without ruining your plan?

pedit: NM I love you

No read, I haven't done ISOs yet

Im being lazy for now

[Mathdino]

So let's be clear here -

1) You misrepped me just to make a point that I've been wrong but not actually because I never said anything that you said, I just didn't vote because of the circumstances of that game.
2) You've actively criticized people for reading Ausuka without knowing anything while also simultaneously saying that you think, from what you've heard, that she is easy to read.
3) You are confused that people are having trouble reading Ausuka which leads us to:

You have no read on Ausuka.

?

I'm confused that people simultaneously consider her easy to read but also flip flop on her alignment

I have not personally gone through the time to sort her, no

[Mathdino]

You could say that yeah

[Mathdino]

You could say that yeah

Won't replace into your games anymore then.

Don't see how this is at all personal

It's not like I don't meta people that don't play my games

[Mathdino]

When this fails you guys are probably going to assume I did nothing all day because my scumbuddy is being townread and I just let it happen
I'm honestly surprised no one is paranoid considering you seem to be pairing me with other people who aren't really doing shit

This setup cannot allow a lurker scumteam

I'll get into this for real tomorrow tho
Fair warning yall gonna get ample opportunity to say I'm scrambling
Yknow despite the fact that not doing shit all day was literally part of my plan

[Mathdino]

No preliminary reads because Im gonna be isoing and metadiving and I might accidentally colour my own reads lol

Keep talking in the meantime pls

[Mathdino]

Being scummy was part of my plan all along! Believe me!

Nothing I've done is particularly scummy unless you already know my meta

I'm partially playing to someone else's town meta tbh

[Mathdino]

wait do you actually think that me doing that to you was scummy? or on a broader level, misrepping in general

i thought you were just getting pissed off on a personal level

like i literally did that to you last game when i was town and you were scum

[Mathdino]

so the same action is scummy in one game but not another game?

[Mathdino]

i'm not asking you to townread me based on it, i'm asking where you're getting the idea that misrepping is scummy, or is a scumtell

like where did you come up with that conclusion

[Mathdino]

I promised content and I can't deliver tonight, sorry

Current strongest townreads are Hiraki and Wisdom

Which is pretty bad for our chances of winning on d1 but whatever

[Mathdino]

Ugh I unvoted
HURT: Mylo
HEAL: Wisdom, Hiraki

Not_Mafia is not playing a towngame thus far
Mylos scum meta is regrettably fakable

So next step is sorting Ausuka by metadive
And neenie by iso
These will happen later

[Mathdino]

You're only too well liked if people are aware you're decent as scum on d1

Who here would know that

Because you've otherwise been a good little townie in the sense that I haven't been, yknow
If people only read surface level shit it's a reasonable conclusion

[Mathdino]

I don't think i have the relevant knowledge of player accuracy especially due to newbies and alts
To rank people in terms of skill
As much as I trolled Hiraki, I haven't actually looked into his accuracy and in truth I barely remember him in clownspiracy

Everyone here has been dead wrong d1, whatever

[Mathdino]

Ftr wisdom is much more likely town than hiraki
I need to metadive Hiraki getting pissed off at people shitting on his mafia ability to make sure I'm right about that

...im really concerned that you seemed to immediately recognise the reaction test, ngl

[Mathdino]

In red flag, Hiraki was readable by how not pissed off he was about me discrediting him

I didn't want to make waves but in this case I might be able to pressure him into something readable

From Monday evening lol

[Mathdino]

My concern is that I was obvious enough that he just delivered a canned response

Granted I'm not sure it's in his scumrange to promise never to play my games again lol

[Mathdino]

I'm kinda bad at reaction tests in retrospect

[Mathdino]

I agree so I'd like to crowdsource that
If only to support eventual metadive

Primary aspect of neenie that sticks out to me is
Townish: paranoid of wisdom
Otoh: literally has wisdom in townbloc while scumreading both LHF who are not currently in coalitions (Mathdino, Invisibility)

Clearly the scumreads is an inconsistent view of the gamestate

[Mathdino]

Can anyone tell me why Invisibilty is scum? My town read on them had already softened, but I'm going to try and avoid sheeping my town reads like I do in every other game lol.

This is either a major towntell or associative gold

[Mathdino]

In my ideal world, I would take wisdom, Hiraki, Mylo, and invisibility
And lynch invisibility if things went wrong

...i am not getting my ideal world however

[Mathdino]

exactly why i would take them

they read as same alignment

if the mission failed, we'd lynch invis
on a scumflip, then lynch mylo because of lol associatives

[Mathdino]

math why are you townreading me now when you were spreading shade on me earlier?

Short answer is VCA and the way you reacted to my shade
Earlier I was basically just saying random shit

The long answer comes when I drop my theory of how scum behaves in this setup

Invisibility is in because Myloninja13 heavily reads like an invisibility partner but otherwise reads town
It's a very niche scenario

[Mathdino]

It seems like you yourself know this block will fail

I'm getting pretty annoyed with this tell

It's exclusively been used on me when I'm town

I myself use it to push town as scum

But it spreads like wildfire

[Mathdino]

there you go again with assuming i cant fake things as scum

and what tell? there are people way townier than invisibility and you say it yourself than hes likely scum with mylo
how the hell can he be in your ideal townblock

unless you are still going for something different than a townblock

- do you think everything you ever do or say is NAI then? i'm not sure what part you think is fakable in particular
you're not playing like smart scum would play this setup
and more on that later

- neenie has too many downsides, N_M is playing his scumgame, TW hasn't really done something i consider super AI for him, and i literally had to go check the playerlist to remind myself that ausuka exists in order to exhaustively make this point. i still need to metadive ausuka.

- i dislike the "you know this will fail" tell. i'm getting bored with having to always tell people that i always prepare for worst case scenario, never best case

- he's likely THE SAME ALIGNMENT as mylo.

- i haven't dropped long analysis, that's me hipfiring reads
and that bloc isn't going to matter because i doubt i'm gonna get those 4 people to all townread each other *and me*

[Mathdino]

But also, we're wrong on Ausuka because Hiraki did this one thing in this other game that he really didn't do

literally have no clue what you're talking about at this point

[Mathdino]

Not overly comfortable with TW
Feels like he's trying to avoid pissing me off after the last time

[Mathdino]

Thebrie is supposed to be obvscum as scum if KTS is to be believed

Should be a 100% sort after meta

[Mathdino]

Can we take a second to appreciate that Hiraki has literally put the 4 hardest to read players in the game all in his coalition

I have no fucking clue who to lynch *when* that fails

Probably Not_Mafia

[Mathdino]

Scummy is not scum indicative

I've been pretty clear about how tilting this setup is for me

[Mathdino]

Like honestly I'm pretty checked out because I don't see a reasonable avenue to getting 4 people who I actually think are town, to townread me

Everyone knows walls are NAI and I don't AtE so all I have is my burden of proficiency which means fuckall in a stagnant setup like this

It's just not fun
I don't really get what people think scum are doing right now
Considering no one is pushing back against this bloc outside of me occasionally mocking it

[Mathdino]

And no one is incentivised to do serious gamestate analysis because there's no clear alternative to whatever townbloc they have at the moment

Like hooray you know that the gamestate precludes this bloc being all town
But then what do you do? I'm not even sure if I know

I just know that as is, there's no way this succeeds
Basic Resistance logic

[Mathdino]

HURT: Ausuka
bad

Ausuka's definitely town
HEAL: Ausuka

You think this is a scum interaction?

It's not optimal to put both scum on the mission

Also basic resistance logic

[Mathdino]

Scum is actually incentivised to bus and distance harder than usual in this setup

At least for this current stage

I think scumteams can be caught on that

BUT WE DON'T GET ANY FLIPS UNTIL AFTER THE COALITION

Fuck not having a feedback loop

Edit: every permutation of people outside the coalition

[Mathdino]

I know that if I were scum in this setup

I would make sure one scum gets in the coalition but otherwise distances

Scum A townblocs scum B (who gets in the coalition)
While scum B busses scum A and locks them out

I think scumteams involving 2 people hardcore townreading each other are bad
As are scumteams that continually bomb each other's cred

[Mathdino]

GUYS GUYS GUYS GUYS

If we're fucked and it's time to go let's send everyone except the scumteams who would bend us the fuck over

Wisdom is probably actually town though

You can't seriously be betting on a scumteam with 2 of me, Wisdom, and Hiraki?

[Mathdino]

Another thing that annoys me: I'd be wagoning the shit out of you in a normal game right now

But instead we have this low stakes thing where the best I can do is wag my finger

It makes for a less stressful gamestate in a terrible way

[Mathdino]

Consider that any club that actually passes is basically guaranteed to have scum in it

Reads on d1 are effectively random

While scum will figure out what reads they need to have to facilitate a townbloc that passes

Town is fucking stubborn about their terrible reads in theory

Part of why wisdom is town by vca
He's basically not playing to any end goal

[Mathdino]

I don't think scumteams are necessarily playing ideally though

I just got burned in a game because I tried to outguess scum and they didn't do what I was expecting

Like, do you expect a team of, say, mylo and Invisibility, to figure that out and make it work?

@math

You got burned because you kept assuming there was some kind of next level WIFOM strategy scum were using to specifically wig you out
Kind of like exactly what you're doing here

Your reads would and will get more accurate with flips but we don't have a fucking feedback loop

[Mathdino]

What would you expect to get out of wagoning me here actually? Throw anything at me, I'll try and reply in real time under pressure if that helps.

Nothing, I would literally be trying to lynch you

It just hasn't been to my advantage to be shouting that because what the fuck can i do about it

[Mathdino]

because TW is basically my biggest cheerleader right now and i don't exactly have a fantastic substitute townbloc

you try making a serious argument that myloninja is more likely to be town than TW without laughing at yourself

like i'm at a point where i've recognised that enough people's reads have solidified that i'd be saying "we need a flip"
but here that basically means "wait for people to be proven wrong so they start actually considering the things i'm saying"

[Mathdino]

like i'm looking through thebrie's scum meta and a lot of the case on her was based around her reads flipping due to votes/pressure and gamestate analysis of the wagons on her

it's whatever

Edit: bad take, man

[Mathdino]

why should i care about casing you

like it's probably wrong given my own scumread accuracy so there's no point in building a gamestate vision out of it

and you're advocating for me
or you were before i outed my read

the probability that something i say will
- flip people's read on me
- get people to agree with my read on you
- end up with my read actually being correct
is fucking minuscule

{Wisdom, Myloninja} is town
invisibility probably also town
other than that, i have no idea, and i'm certainly not confident enough to direct a townbloc that doesn't have me in it

[Mathdino]

the best ace in my sleeve that i have is that you guys are wrong right now, and that gets shown after the phase is over

after that i just have to pray that whoever's scum in the coalition is someone who's obviously not scum with me

or that i can just get nightkilled out of this mountainous game

not_mafia is scum, hiraki literally has N_M in his townbloc "by PoE" due to having too many scumreads
if that's the case, then you don't fucking jump the gun and say "yeah i'm ready for this phase to end"
dumb or scum, etc etc
probably dumb ngl

[Mathdino]

i guess this is the first step
HEAL: Wisdom
HEAL: Myloninja

neenie hasn't done anything unfakable
waffling, the thing i thought she was town for
is literally admittedly part of her scum meta
so fuck me right

[Mathdino]

i swear to god if you fucks ram through the coalition, mislynch mylo, and then blame everything on me

[Mathdino]

the best ace in my sleeve that i have is that you guys are wrong right now, and that gets shown after the phase is over

after that i just have to pray that whoever's scum in the coalition is someone who's obviously not scum with me

or that i can just get nightkilled out of this mountainous game

not_mafia is scum, hiraki literally has N_M in his townbloc "by PoE" due to having too many scumreads
if that's the case, then you don't fucking jump the gun and say "yeah i'm ready for this phase to end"
dumb or scum, etc etc
probably dumb ngl

Yup Math is scum

so am i scum with someone in or out of the coalition

cuz that's literally what's important to the current phase

[Mathdino]

Does anyone here know how to read Not_Mafia?

Yes, he's likely scum

[Mathdino]

Hiraki I need to metadive
I think if he's town he's not going to yield an inch to me because he thinks I'm an asshole for the reaction test earlier

Neenie I HAVE metadived and I can't tell the difference honestly
Her scumtell is supposed to be awkwardness and discomfort but I'm not capable of tonereading

[Mathdino]

HEAL: Invisibility

[Mathdino]

I echo your thoughts on Neenie, yeah, but I'm also not really concerned with finding scum outside the bloc because that's not going to ever be taken care of until scum inside the bloc gets lynched.

[Mathdino]

wait lol that's a reason to townread ausuka

granted that was probably after i talked about townreading wisdom for that same reason so that's probably NAI

[Mathdino]

I'll give you that its probably not math+someone outside the block because math would try more

i know you're talking about scum-me here

but i have like no motivation to play this hellhole of a game when my scumreads are more willing to sheep me than my townreads

the original goal was to lay low and drop a massive gamesolve near the end of D1

but yeah the chance of town unity is low enough that i'd rather watch hiraki/n_m be wrong

than propose a 50/50 deal and immediately get lynched if i'm wrong

[Mathdino]

his reads don't make sense and seem much more geared to falling into the townbloc than actually solving the game

his content since then has just been "i'm town" and repeating his standard not_mafia tunnel

this is his scumgame.

[Mathdino]

his reads tend to actually make sense
he produces content when you ask

honestly it's hard to gauge shit here because

- he's obviously not going to produce content for me just because i ask

- he's been sitting in comfort since you and hiraki slapped him into a townbloc, so there's been no need for a potential scum-him to take control or start actually pushing anything

like the way you guys have treated N_M is adding to the general unreadability

on a broader level, it's legit idiotic to townread someone playing to their scum meta because you have 4 scumreads elsewhere

[Mathdino]

because this setup is balls and i got busy IRL/sitewide during the "lay low" phase of my gameplan

i want to fucking lynch someone

[Mathdino]

my vote doesn't matter if i'm not in the bloc itself

[Mathdino]

like what i failed to account for is that i basically have 0 agency unless i'm being strongly townread

so me sacrificing charisma for the hope of future accuracy was potentially the worst possible strategy here

you do what you need to do to move on, i'm gonna keep bitching from the sidelines

[Mathdino]

...do you literally not understand the setup

a coalition requires 5 players to all agree that all 5 are town

if i am not in the townbloc, my vote doesn't matter

as it stands, i've identified 4 players i think are town

3 of them are not voting me

your job is to convince your bloc to sign off, not to convince me

[Mathdino]

This game isn't mafia, it's a worse version of the resistance with no feedback and no agency for those not on the mission

[Mathdino]

WHAT CAN I TYPE THAT WILL SPEED ANYTHING UP

LITERALLY WRITE THE POST FOR ME

[Mathdino]

Write my post for me

[Mathdino]

HURT: invisibility
HEAL: nm
HEAL: neenie

[Mathdino]

I hope you know I'm literally voting 2 scumreads

And I lowkey think Hiraki is potential scum if not Not_Mafia

[Mathdino]

I trust what my coalition once was

Hiraki, Wisdom, Invisibility, Myloninja

[Mathdino]

Not making the appropriate moves to get in the townbloc
Either town or scum with someone already in the bloc.

Hence the designated lynch for my coalition

[Mathdino]

Yeah don't mind me I just wanna put my good scumbuddy invisibility in a coalition with me and then bus him when it fails

Invisibility is always scumread on playstyle
Scummy is such a meaningless word

He's done very little that seems legit scum motivated

[Mathdino]

Good God who makes this their highest priority game

[Mathdino]

Yes, that's what I'm telling you

[Mathdino]

Hey wisdom wanna swap in tw and swap out neenie
I'm scumreading neenie more and I'm so ready to see Hiraki be wrong

[Mathdino]

HURT: Neenie
HEAL: the worst

Whatever gets the most votes

[Mathdino]

He's vla what the fuck do you guys expect from this wagon

[Mathdino]

So we actually really just need 5 town in order to win this now if you think about it

[Mathdino]

I really shouldn't have to explain how incredibly suboptimal it is to lynch outside the confscumbloc

[Mathdino]

Honestly pretty fucking done with this game
I accept that maybe wisdom manipulated me into rushing but if he's scum we've lost already so I'm treating him as conftown instead
Fuck mountainous

Scum have done a good job of lowering morale so that's pretty lit on their part

I'll do whatever, you guys know my reads but I literally was asked to put 3 scumreads in a coalition

[Mathdino]

I don't have the energy to continually call half the game shit for tryna lynch outside the bloc

I really do not know who it is

Preference for Not_Mafia

[Mathdino]

Don't quick lynch NM yet either!

[Mathdino]

I was sure I saw votes for invis and neenie

VOTE: Not_Mafia

[Mathdino]

well invisibility is fucking town and all that suggests is that N_M isn't scum with the worst

the primary thing pointing to N_M being town is not understanding the coalition mechanics, which seems unlikely given daytalk

granted i'm fairly sure i wouldn't understand the coalition mechanics even if i had daytalk considering i thought the only people who could vote on a coalition were the people in the coalition itself

so in addition to being an unfun setup it's also a confusing one

i'm not going to lynch a V/LA duck after i just got strongarmed into dropping him into a coalition against his will, dude

[Mathdino]

I've had Hiraki as scum if Not_Mafia isn't for a good while tbh

[Mathdino]

Anyone claiming there's definitely scum in {Invis, Mathdino} is legitimately dumb. I've been calling Invis town for days now.

Like I'm getting the impression that us being outside of the coalition is the only thing stopping you guys from lynching the two of us in succession. It doesn't take much thought to decide that if there IS scum in Invis/Dino, it's probably scum-me being right on Invis, not town-me getting pocketed by advanced scum-Invis.

The idea that literally everyone is okay with lynching N_M is fair but I would also point out that I've won as scum with him by bussing him D1 and mislynching like 4 guys solo. N_M is one of the most bussable scumplayers on the planet.

But sure, I'll check ISOs and see who is even a viable partner at this rate.
UNVOTE:

[Mathdino]

That doesn't answer who's scum in the coalition if it's not N_M though.

[Mathdino]

are you seriously doing this nsg

[Mathdino]

VOTE: Hiraki

[Mathdino]

He put us in this mess

He originally planned to lynch lynchbait Myloninja13 if his coalition failed
Then that opinion fades as I, his biggest scumread, gives him shit for it

Then refused to budge on TW vs Neenie
And now is tryna lynch the guy he insisted should be in the coalition

Not_Mafia as a PoE townread is incredible
The coalition is full of lynchable people
I believe that's by design

[Mathdino]

He's played how you'd expect scum to

He went full ringleader, found a town buddy early

Has made political moves that all are geared toward the agenda of getting his coalition passed

[Mathdino]

He's played how you'd expect scum to

He went full ringleader, found a town buddy early

Has made political moves that all are geared toward the agenda of getting his coalition passed

This was about Hiraki not tw

[Mathdino]

why are you against lynching tw?

Doesn't feel right

Something is wrong with the gamestate and i suspect it's a double town wagon

TW makes sense as scum with neeniekit but i don't see viable scumteams with either tw or nm

[Mathdino]

Okay then why are you lynching the worst

The town in this game is the people who didn't give a fuck about being in the coalition early on

Regrettably that means a lot of them were left outside the coalition (thanks guys)

Hiraki cared

Edit: because invisibility is fucking town

[Mathdino]

No but that's like the only viable team for TW
So I guess lynch them if they both end up in lylo

You've thrown out all my shit as shallow all game
Given that I knew this would fail and I'm fairly sure I'm correctly calling townies outside the coalition yall gotta give me a break
This is not a mafia game

[Mathdino]

how sure are you about NM town and why math? I'm getting like lolscum levels of scumread there.

I'm not
But name partners with Not_Mafia

[Mathdino]

I'm not gonna sit here like an imbecile just chain lynching the worst and Not_Mafia until lylo

Something feels incredibly wrong
Like that feeling when you get spoiled in the dead thread and you're like ohhh the reason the game wasn't solved is because of a scenario you just didn't think of

Y'all gotta stop tunneling your reads

[Mathdino]

Math, who are you proposing as Hiraki's partner?

You
Not_Mafia
Ausuka

Very slim chance of Hiraki forcing tw into the coalition in order to bus him

[Mathdino]

how Many votes is NM on right now?

The hammer is all yours buddy

[Mathdino]

Outside chance of Hiraki putting Mylo into the coalition to bus him as well

Would explain the read flip flop

[Mathdino]

like, a tw/invisibility team would rely on tw getting townread and in the coalition

invisibility kept tw in his block all day with barely any explanation or read progress

Yep and that would deconstruct my invisibility townread

Again though I'm not banking on one scumteam proposal

Unless you wanna policy lynch invisibility to hardclear the worst?

[Mathdino]

Am I supposed to read that or what

If it's not a case on the worst or a great reason to suspect the worst is partners with someone other than invisibility, it's vastly uninteresting to me

Self defences are so passe

[Mathdino]

All caps is also pretty passe
Rage went out of style years ago onsite

Seems like some shit about how I apparently signed off and agreed to your coalition when I don't think literally anyone in this game has that interpretation of my vote switch
Asking wisdom to write my post for me is very different from independently agreeing with your reads

[Mathdino]

YOU CANNOT CALL ME OUT FOR BEING MANIPULATIVE IF YOU DISTRUSTED ME AND STILL VOTED WITH ME. IF SO, THEN YOU SHOULD'VE SAID SOMETHING THEN. YOU SAY WHATEVER YOU WANT NOW BUT YOU'RE JUST GOING TO LOOK STUPID.

[Mathdino]

What exactly is your plan to get people to actually vote with you again

Edit: ok how are you townreading neenie and scumreading me exactly

[Mathdino]

it dissipated when i realised that no one really seems to care if N_M gets lynched or not

most viable scumpartner for not_mafia might actually be hiraki, hilariously enough

also i don't see how 453 is associative indicative

my scum strategy for scum with myloninja would be to get myself in the townbloc and policy lynch him at some point for being a major liability

that guy bleeds associatives faster than the elevator from the shining
(or at least that would be my profile on his scumgame)

[Mathdino]

i think it's been pretty obvious, wisdom,

that my passiveness was a thing partially planned from the start and partially a result of me putting this game on the backburner due to RL stuff and this game being lowest of priorities

you've played with myloninja before, yeah?

do you think i think to myself "oh yeah i'll just get scum-mylo in the coalition and lurk out D1"

[Mathdino]

like i can tell you what i think my strategy would be with most of the players in this game

unless you think i was bluffing when i was going along with your coalition followed by hiraki's coalition

me being scum with TW doesn't make sense

so really the only scumpartner that i think i would've played this way with

is hiraki

and you but you're town so

[Mathdino]

I haven't, no

and sure, if you planned to be apathetic you needed mylo in

except mylo is apathy incarnate

my point is that i would literally not plan to be apathetic this game as scum with a lurker

like i was really hoping SOMEONE would figure that out

and you did but then you WIFOM'd yourself all the way out of it

[Mathdino]

Pretty sure, yeah

Inb4 math is scum for bouncing off the Not_Mafia wagon

[Mathdino]

If he flips red you all lose the right to shit on my reads this game tbh

[Mathdino]

thebrie has some new scum meta btw guys

[Mathdino]

You'd think Mylo would actually be voting if he were scum

I'd rather lynch TW I think

[Mathdino]

UNVOTE:

still confident this ate/emotional manipulation is a scum move but like do whatever I guess. I already know I can't outcharisma what wisdom wants.

if it's duck vs wisdom, you have my vote

[Mathdino]

i actually townread neenie based on the last page

[Mathdino]

i have also played with scum mylo for the record

he literally shot himself as the last scum

his associations were pretty obvious

[Mathdino]

N_M is probably town or scum with TW just for that.

TW is well aware of when N_M chooses to hammer or not hammer.

Mylo is scrambling like I've rarely seen him scramble.

I was just about to give intent to hammer but there's still the major issue of the worst not making sense as scum with anyone but Invisibility.

And if the solve is Mylo/Neenie, I'm not super into that. Neenie's fuckup feels town.

I still think Hiraki is the best call here.

[Mathdino]

Why would wisdom be nightkilled if he's in the coalition

[Mathdino]

I'll be honest it would be pretty satisfying to policy myloninja repeatedly

But yeah it might actually be wisdom if it's not Mylo here

Wisdom townreading Hiraki this hard is kind of ridic

[Mathdino]

There's a chance of the worst and Wisdom actually
Just do we're very clear on that
It aligns with both motivations through the game

That is not a possibility I intend to resolve right now
Just don't forget it if you make it to 5p

[Mathdino]

Wisdom purposefully excludes the worst from coalition in order to chain lynch the entire rest of it

Wisdom busses TW to look like a real cool guy after Hiraki fucked up putting TW in

The worst and Wisdom put on a huge show and eventually shift onto 2 other targets

It's pretty consistent and explains recent behavior

They just don't make sense as scum with anyone else

[Mathdino]

Right. So remember it if we hit 5p. Because we're running out of sensible solves.

Edit: From your perspective, that's correct. And because of that, Wisdom should be lynched before the worst if either happens.

Hiraki vs Mylo. We sure it's not Not_Mafia?

[Mathdino]

Wisdom also potential scum with Not_Mafia actually. N_M runs out of reasonable partners until you hit Wis.

Willing to compromise on Mylo mayyybe. I wanna wait it out a bit.

[Mathdino]

I would totally tell him to lolhammer
I'd just policy his ass the next day

[Mathdino]

Someone explain why Mylo scrambled like that

He literally scumclaims as scum

[Mathdino]

Then it's just Hiraki

SMH the coalition should have just been the lowest 5 post counts

[Mathdino]

Math, who are you proposing as Hiraki's partner?

You
Not_Mafia
Ausuka

Very slim chance of Hiraki forcing tw into the coalition in order to bus him

[Mathdino]

"I compulsively townread everyone who posts at the same time I do"

In seriousness yeah I'd prefer to end day on Hiraki

[Mathdino]

I just wanna point out that my "put the entire scumteam in the coalition" thing earlier was great but communicated badly

Optimal strategy is to put pairs of people that you're certain are the same alignment in the coalition
Majority of the time they'll both be town
And if it fails you can just lynch one to get the other

[Mathdino]

VOTE: Invisibility
Let's go guys hop on

[Mathdino]

Join it, this has the chance to clear both the worst and Hiraki

[Mathdino]

I wanted to see what Mylo "sheep Mathdino to the ends of the earth" ninja13 would do

VOTE: Hiraki

Scum won't join now though since you guys make 2 against it

[Mathdino]

I mean i literally pointed out that you could be bussing TW
I don't care about who agrees with me or not

[Mathdino]

You shouting at me is not giving me the opportunity to clear them up
I don't read AtE and self defence, it fucks my scumdar (I find self defence to be one of the most NAI things)
I read pushes and motivations

If you have sincere questions about my reads then go ahead

[Mathdino]

I don't understand how you never seemed to process that my initial misrep was an intentional tilt

I mean the term misrep is way overused and I lowkey consider it an extremely outdated form of whining but whatever
Yes, I purposefully misrepresented that one game

But instead of recognizing that you're just repeating the same rhetoric about me over and over

I'm not seeing the effort to solve

[Mathdino]

What?

I was making fun of the worst in that post

Stop being passive aggressive and just talk like a normal person for chrissake

[Mathdino]

3. like music

How I feel about this setup

[Mathdino]

UNVOTE:

[Mathdino]

Why isn't Hiraki trying to dodge this lynch

[Mathdino]

I'm not going generate reactions and vca by tunneling the same person all day

I just need a flip and things will start to come together

[Mathdino]

nothing really makes sense to me other than the worst/Wisdom

the problem is TW doesn't actually make sense with anyone else
i don't think hiraki realises that or cares

i'm also frustrated that the mylo wagon is essentially gonna have 0 accountability
they've all already stated they're pretty much going after hiraki tomorrow

and i think that's probably not good
VOTE: Myloninja

just remember
the worst/Wisdom is a great solve
lynch wisdom first in 5p

[Mathdino]

i think the fakehammer reaction was only good for the worst

not_mafia's reaction was completely NAI, anyone who knows his meta knows he trolls in twilight

i only hopped off that due to the assumption that everyone wanted his lynch

but not_mafia is probably tomorrow's ideal lynch

[Mathdino]

I want to believe scum Not_Mafia is smarter than that

If you're right it might have to be wisdom on BoP

[Mathdino]

He's only good because people let him do the most pro scum thing possible

[Mathdino]

Ftr I agree with you

But your flip helps boping the other players on your wagon

I actually felt you were at your least policy lynchable this game

[Mathdino]

Ugh maybe I should've pushed for wisdom today

[Mathdino]

Yeah you were good enough this game lol

[Mathdino]

I'm not scumreading TW tho
I think he's essentially conftown if wisdom is town

[Mathdino]

TW lynch was unrealistic and I know his meta better than you do
He's town if wisdoms town
I currently think you're town

So my options were Not_Mafia, the safe lynch
Myloninja13, the "fuck it let's get a flip" lynch
And wisdom, the "climbing up mount everest" lynch

Which would you have preferred I do, Hiraki

[Mathdino]

YESSSSSSS
LATER LOSERS

[Mathdino]

Scum was good, town was decentish, setup was balls

[Mathdino]

This setup would easily easily be fixed by just making d1 normal and then requiring a 4p coalition on d2

I need to do the ev calculations but basically this setup exacerbates the d1 charisma bias problem
It's fine in a normal game because people stop lynching on charisma later on
But here there was literally nothing to go on for d1