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Luco
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Post Post #550  (ISO)  » Mon May 28, 2018 6:36 pm

Wait what

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Post Post #551  (ISO)  » Mon May 28, 2018 6:56 pm

Oh jesus I think I broke him :(

UNVOTE: garuga

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Post Post #552  (ISO)  » Tue May 29, 2018 1:56 am

Official Vote Count 2.03
Nalini Joshis favourite theorem

My Favourite Theorem is a podcast that I love a lot. I especially liked this one since complex analysis is very close to my heart. Dr. Joshi talks about Mittag-Leffler’s theorem, which says that you can reconstruct a meromorphic function if you know the location of the poles and its behaviour around the poles.





LynchingGaruga (2): Not_Mafia, Garuga
GuiltyLion (2): Shoshin, junijay
Not_Mafia (1): GuiltyLion

Not Voting (2): Luco, Wyvernite

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

Deadline: (expired on 2018-06-11 08:35:00).


Mod notes: Keep it fun!
Zooborns IV is over

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Post Post #553  (ISO)  » Tue May 29, 2018 6:53 am

In post 149, LaFlame wrote:
In post 146, Luco wrote:Laflame, do you have any thoughts on posts besides your own?


I don't even read it, so far nobody used their actions. How I am supposed to judge if someone is scum or not?
Wyvernite is likely the cop too.

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Post Post #554  (ISO)  » Tue May 29, 2018 7:41 am

Why are you PR hunting? And doing it openly?

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Post Post #555  (ISO)  » Tue May 29, 2018 10:08 am

In post 521, Shoshin wrote:355 was followed by 356, where Guilty expresses a preference for lynching LMS over Winged.


yes and again, if I were scum I wouldn't have half-assedly tried to distance-but-still-lynch-someone-else like that. I was frankly surprised that an LMS wagon even got any traction so close to deadline like that. 356 was my honest and genuine thoughts as town. It'd be pretty poor scumplay to tie myself to an impending Winged scumflip like that - I have a pretty strong scum track record and have been around the block, I try to avoid bad posts like that when I'm scum and I care about my associatives.
"I think I no longer believe in monsters as faces in the floor or feral infants or vampires or whatever. I think at seventeen now I believe the only real monsters might be the type of liar where there's simply no way to tell. The ones who give nothing away"

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Post Post #556  (ISO)  » Tue May 29, 2018 10:10 am

In post 524, Shoshin wrote:
In post 510, GuiltyLion wrote:1) as scum I would never have made that LMS kill. His posting at the end of d1 made it obvious that he was a VT, there was no sense at all that he was a PR who couldn't risk getting lynched

Where'd he make it obvious he was VT?


In post 324, LastManStanding wrote:Or perhaps he's actually a town PR and wants to keep a low profile. (If that's the case, I'm sorry buddy. I've been enjoying PR-hunting as a scum a bit too much.)


In post 364, LastManStanding wrote:I mentioned that I'd post my thoughts about Wyvern before D1 ends, so I'll do it now. With <24 hours on the clock and 3 votes on my ass I ought to put in the effort.


plus there was no sense of urgency about not-being-lynched in his ISO being at L-2 with <12 hours until deadline. Which is another reason I started thinking he might be town - he wasn't bluffing as a PR or dropping any PR-tells so I figured he may just be a VT.
"I think I no longer believe in monsters as faces in the floor or feral infants or vampires or whatever. I think at seventeen now I believe the only real monsters might be the type of liar where there's simply no way to tell. The ones who give nothing away"

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Post Post #557  (ISO)  » Tue May 29, 2018 10:11 am

In post 526, Shoshin wrote:Luco, you should find someone else to vote if you think Guilty is town.


also you could have said this to me too

UNVOTE:
"I think I no longer believe in monsters as faces in the floor or feral infants or vampires or whatever. I think at seventeen now I believe the only real monsters might be the type of liar where there's simply no way to tell. The ones who give nothing away"

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Post Post #558  (ISO)  » Tue May 29, 2018 10:15 am

In post 538, Luco wrote:Almost a week apart:

In post 305, Garuga wrote:Reads:

Town: Wyvernite, Luco
Null: junijay, Not_Mafia
Scum: wingedcatgirl, Shoshin

N/A: GuiltyLion, falcon

In post 528, Garuga wrote:Reads:

Town: Luco, Wyvernite, GuiltyLion
Null: Not_Mafia, junijay
Scum: Shoshin

My read on GL has fallen a bit due to his recent post. Still scumreading Sho since she seems to be ignoring Wyvernite's inquiries, so VOTE: Shoshin.

This is far too consistent to be towny


yep, and the idea of a Shoshin-WCG team makes no sense really

I'm still on vacation (been in Detroit for Movement all weekend) so I've only been checking in once a day and don't have time to lay down the case on Garuga, but if N_M's town and given his D2 posts I can see him being scum despite being an early WCG wagon adopter. I'll put it all into better words tonight if I have the energy, otherwise it'll come tomorrow. It's also suspicious that he wants to townread me yet shades my posts - I think he's trying to avoid looking bad on my mislynch if it happens today.
"I think I no longer believe in monsters as faces in the floor or feral infants or vampires or whatever. I think at seventeen now I believe the only real monsters might be the type of liar where there's simply no way to tell. The ones who give nothing away"

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Post Post #559  (ISO)  » Tue May 29, 2018 10:23 am

I don't get what Garuga's doing...

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Post Post #560  (ISO)  » Tue May 29, 2018 10:40 am

In post 555, GuiltyLion wrote:
In post 521, Shoshin wrote:355 was followed by 356, where Guilty expresses a preference for lynching LMS over Winged.

yes and again, if I were scum I wouldn't have half-assedly tried to distance-but-still-lynch-someone-else like that. I was frankly surprised that an LMS wagon even got any traction so close to deadline like that. 356 was my honest and genuine thoughts as town. It'd be pretty poor scumplay to tie myself to an impending Winged scumflip like that - I have a pretty strong scum track record and have been around the block, I try to avoid bad posts like that when I'm scum and I care about my associatives.

Most scum use this defense when they've been caught, the I'm-better-than-this defense. But at the end of the day scum play like scum and even the best drop the same tells as everyone else - the difference is a matter of how subtle their tells are, and in your case, it's actually pretty subtle. If you're scum, I wouldn't consider your posts "bad" or your play "poor" by any means - you were widely townread by everyone throughout D1 (and even starting off D2), and in the absence of a Winged flip it's unlikely you'd have become a suspect. If you're town, it sucks but you're getting screwed by unfortunate circumstances - mafia's a game of probability and the circumstances significantly increase the likelihood that you're scum.

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Post Post #561  (ISO)  » Tue May 29, 2018 12:57 pm

Eh well we aren't really going to be able to productively advance further on this point if you don't consider this "bad" scumplay and I appreciate the hypothetical compliment but I do invite you to check out some of my completed Newbie scumgames and see for yourself that I control the gamestate significantly better in those efforts.

I'm convincing myself more and more of Garuga scum. The frustration and the accompanying self-vote doesn't fit with a town mindset there. I'll effortpost a case tonight
"I think I no longer believe in monsters as faces in the floor or feral infants or vampires or whatever. I think at seventeen now I believe the only real monsters might be the type of liar where there's simply no way to tell. The ones who give nothing away"

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Post Post #562  (ISO)  » Tue May 29, 2018 4:21 pm


Luco
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Post Post #563  (ISO)  » Tue May 29, 2018 4:32 pm

I wanted to avoid posting for a little bit because I took garugas self vote personally and this game should never, ever be personal. But I cant help giving my 2 cents here

In post 561, GuiltyLion wrote:Eh well we aren't really going to be able to productively advance further on this point if you don't consider this "bad" scumplay and I appreciate the hypothetical compliment but I do invite you to check out some of my completed Newbie scumgames and see for yourself that I control the gamestate significantly better in those efforts.

I'm convincing myself more and more of Garuga scum. The frustration and the accompanying self-vote doesn't fit with a town mindset there. I'll effortpost a case tonight

You mention controlling the gamestate, but you were away during WCGs fall from grace. She was already on L-2 by the time you came back, the damage was done.

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Post Post #564  (ISO)  » Tue May 29, 2018 4:59 pm

In post 562, Luco wrote:I wanted to avoid posting for a little bit because I took garugas self vote personally and this game should never, ever be personal.

What do you mean that you took it personal?

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Post Post #565  (ISO)  » Tue May 29, 2018 8:22 pm

Garuga, I'm really confused as to why you're voting for yourself.

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Post Post #566  (ISO)  » Tue May 29, 2018 11:59 pm

So here are some thoughts on why Garuga is scum:

1. His scumread on Shoshin is never satisfactorily explained and did not update whatsoever with the WCG scumflip -

Here's why Garuga suspected and voted Shoshin initially:
In post 212, Garuga wrote:Kinda suss on Shoshin after 121.
Sho has made a lot of posts but really hasn't offered much content (there's even a few naked votes).

In post 219, Garuga wrote:
In post 214, GuiltyLion wrote:
In post 212, Garuga wrote:Not voting LaFlame yet since I'm waiting for his replacement.


Why? Voting LaFlame would add more pressure to the replacement, and he's really only got my vote since I doubt the replacement will keep their vote on themself. Or why not vote somebody who's here instead?
Good point. I'm parking my vote on VOTE: Shoshin for now.


I prompted him as to why is a suspicious post (as did Shoshin):
In post 215, GuiltyLion wrote:I'm not really a fan of Garugas catchup tbh, it's a lot of summary without analysis or calling things suspicious without explaining why. Garuga you should call out why things like me defending MafMen on page 2 or Shosin's are more likely to come from scum than town.


and he then drops this suspicion entirely:
In post 239, Garuga wrote:
In post 237, Shoshin wrote:
In post 212, Garuga wrote:Kinda suss on Shoshin after 121.
Sho has made a lot of posts but really hasn't offered much content (there's even a few naked votes).

Scum can't fake the kind of in-depth thinking my posts have... What's wrong with 121?
I stopped suspecting 121 a while ago.

I don't see how I'm supposed to get any kind of "in-depth thinking" from naked votes.


and later the scumread as well:
In post 256, Garuga wrote:This post (and the other recent ones) were good. Maybe it's just that I replaced into this game and your ISO is hard to follow, but I think making a readslist every once in a while would help us follow along better. UNVOTE: Shoshin, on the expectation that you make more organized posts.

- though it's worth noting here that he's not actually expressing a townread on Shoshin, just an "expectation that you make more organized posts". Which reads closer to an awkward explanation for an unvote, not a legitimate change in thought process or evaluation of the game state.

He then maintains a scumread on her - yet claims to townread her earlier posts? -:
In post 392, Garuga wrote:I think Shoshin's been ignoring Wyvernite's inquiries, which is most apparent in 290 and I find that scummy.

Rereading her ISO, I'm actually townreading her earlier posts up until I replaced in and shit hit the fan with Wyvernite. Then again, she wasn't getting much pressure before then, so it might have been easier for her to blend in if she's scum.

and uses that same reasoning to justify his D2 vote after WCG's flip D1:
In post 528, Garuga wrote:Still scumreading Sho since she seems to be ignoring Wyvernite's inquiries, so VOTE: Shoshin.


So to recap, here's what we know about why Garuga thinks Shoshin is scum:
- and naked votes are suspicious
- She hasn't posted organized readslists
- She ignored Wyvernite in

None of these things are indicative and Garuga has made no effort to explain to us why they are. They're surface level reasons you can say to make it sound like someone is scum, but I don't see any real connection as to why he thinks scum are more likely to post naked votes or why scum won't post readslists (LMS -another Garuga scumread- openly refused to do this as well and has since flipped town), and there's the "ignoring Wyvernite" point which has already been addressed as Wyvernite's posts weren't actually targeted towards Shoshin and Shoshin did engage with Wyvernite - it just wasn't too his (or Garuga's) liking. There's been noise about how Shoshin isn't transparent with her reads, but I don't think it makes sense to hold Shoshin to that charge as she is always clear with who she scumreads.

There's also the inconsistency over whether her early game posts were town readable or scum readable. Garuga initially scumread them - specifically - but then later said her ISO was townie until shit hit the fan with Wyvernite. I don't see how a townie would go through that progression - either he originally thought her posts were scummy or he didn't, it's not something that would change on a reread unless he was really going through a full re-evaluation of the game or if he misread her posts or something. Without major changes in his read in the rest of the game state - and especially because he still claims to scumread Shoshin - it's not clear to me why he's inconsistent on whether her early posts were scummy or not.

Finally Shoshin was a primary driver of the WCG wagon, egging on multiple votes onto her at deadline:
In post 329, Shoshin wrote:LMS, thoughts on Winged?

In post 338, Shoshin wrote:
In post 332, LastManStanding wrote:@Luco and Shoshin, wanna sell me on the wagon on winged? You might not succeed, but you can try.

Luco & I have already stated our concerns. Please reread Winged and give a detailed breakdown on why you don't want to lynch there.

In post 381, Shoshin wrote:Luco, why LMS over Winged?

and even going so far as to say:
In post 387, Shoshin wrote:I'd like to see Wyvern or Winged hang today, preferably Winged.


The fact that Garuga doesn't consider this at all, and goes so far as to suggest no one should get towncred from Winged's flip:
In post 527, Garuga wrote:What exactly is clearing about anyone's associatives with WCG? Pretty much everyone townread her before the debacle in page 11.

suggests to me that he's not really thinking about motives for a scum!Shoshin's play, and instead looking for convenient excuses to push her.

2. The ATE and self-vote is nonsensical for town in his position and inconsistent with his reaction to pressure on D1 -

Here's how Garuga responded to being pushed yesterDay:
In post 219, Garuga wrote:I expect I'll have to answer a bunch of questions on things that I might have glossed over or underexplained (like I'm doing right now).


yet as soon as he gets two votes today, he freaks out and self-votes. Why would town!Garuga be more frustrated with being questioned today than he was on D1? If he's town, he's much closer to winning the game today than he was yesterDay - even if he is mislynched, he just needs to leave with solid evidence/interactions against his scumreads to put town in a good position. But if he's scum, he's now in a much worse spot than before and may feel like the game is out of his hands as soon as votes and attention come his way. I think that's more likely to explain the ATE and the self-vote than genuine town frustration at being suspected.

It also means he's not a PR which means he's more likely to be scum in general.

One other minor point:

3. He thought Shoshin may be a protective PR, yet decided to push her anyway?

I'm having a hard time seeing how this post comes from town:
In post 547, Garuga wrote:You know what? You're right. I should re-evaluate my reads. Starting with Shoshin:

In post 452, Shoshin wrote:If there's a tracker, tracker should claim. It confirms a townie, and tracker won't die because of protective roles.
I didn't want to point this out for obvious reasons, but this post is really out of place considering how late we are into the game. It sounds like a protective role who doesn't know who to protect yet, and it gives her an incentive to act scummier than usual in order to avoid the NK.

UNVOTE: Shoshin while I build my case on Luco.


when did he not want to point this out? Was it prior to voting and pushing Shoshin? If so, why does town!Garuga openly suspect someone that he thinks could be a PR?

was it only after reviewing her ISO that he saw this as a possible PR tell? If so, then why does he say he didn't want to point it out immediately before pointing it out anyway?

I feel like this post was a panicked attempt at demonstrating some sort of re-evaluation under pressure rather than town wanting to constructively game-solve.
"I think I no longer believe in monsters as faces in the floor or feral infants or vampires or whatever. I think at seventeen now I believe the only real monsters might be the type of liar where there's simply no way to tell. The ones who give nothing away"

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Post Post #567  (ISO)  » Wed May 30, 2018 12:06 am

In post 562, Luco wrote:You mention controlling the gamestate, but you were away during WCGs fall from grace. She was already on L-2 by the time you came back, the damage was done.


fair, I'm mostly just arguing for the sake of arguing out of pride for my scumgame at this point. I've never had myself or my partner lynched D1 in a in a Newbie Game and I feel a little disrespected that you all think it'd be this easy to catch me :P
"I think I no longer believe in monsters as faces in the floor or feral infants or vampires or whatever. I think at seventeen now I believe the only real monsters might be the type of liar where there's simply no way to tell. The ones who give nothing away"

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Post Post #568  (ISO)  » Wed May 30, 2018 1:02 am

Please hold
Zooborns IV is over

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Post Post #569  (ISO)  » Wed May 30, 2018 1:38 am

Garuga and Luco are being replaced. Do not discuss this until after the game.
Zooborns IV is over

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Post Post #570  (ISO)  » Wed May 30, 2018 1:44 am

Wyvernite1 has been prodded. They have (expired on 2018-05-31 08:45:00) to post before I start looking for a replacement.
Zooborns IV is over

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Post Post #571  (ISO)  » Wed May 30, 2018 7:29 am

Let's graciously lynch the garuga slot and save mod some trouble

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Post Post #572  (ISO)  » Wed May 30, 2018 11:26 am

Guilty, can you link to a couple of your recent scum games?

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Post Post #573  (ISO)  » Wed May 30, 2018 12:03 pm

hey sorry I've been inactive I've been traveling for work! I'll try to get a post in before I have to leave, if not expect an update from me tonight!

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Post Post #574  (ISO)  » Wed May 30, 2018 12:36 pm

Okay so quick update on where i'm at for gamestate, I've liked shoshin quite a bit more after the flip and the content that has been provided thus far, even if it didn't happen when I wanted it to; it still got done. We'll have to see the how the garuga/luco slots turn out, but I think garuga is under quite a bit of pressure currently, and I don't think that should be let up. See how his replacement feels about everything, and then decide. we have plenty of time currently, but as it stands, I'm on a train between Garuga and N_M, although he was on the wagon as was N_M so i'll hold off on judgement for a little bit. I want to see SOMETHING from junijay, she seems to be playing the same game WCG with the not knowing how to read, but in addition to that I can't even get a vote read because there is literally 0 vote history for this one. I don't like this at all.

I WANT CONTENT! *bangs silverware on table*

So far town that I'm a big fan of is: shoshin(shocker right?), Luco. This is my townblock currently.

I liked GL but his response to the pressure I'm not a huge fan of. I'm not going to look through your meta and look at previous games, but if it is how you say it is, I don't understand how any town would be picking up on your scumtells if you're so good? Can you explain how you're town this game asaide from OMGUS it seems that you're throwing out currently? - Null currently, we'll see how D2 shakes out. I'd put Garuga in the same boat as GL. I liked him d1, not the biggest fan of the D2 plays, especially the self-vote.

Scum I am between N_M and Junijay. I am not a fan of Junijay's content, or lack thereof as it were. N_M's approach to D2 is much more active than D1 which is nice, but it seems he just wants to resolve the day already, as if the longer it goes on, the worse it could turn out for him. I'd like to see everyone's thoughts on him; am I the only one getting that vibe? I think I could be on to something, but we'll see.

Trains for N_M and Garuga are people I need to hear more from; I'm hoping I don't have to use my vote on Junijay to press for content, but if I don't get it in the next few pages that's where my Vote will be landing.

For now VOTE: Not_Mafia

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