Fallout Mafia - Commonwealth Edition (Day 8)

[Punreader]

davesaz:

When I started reading, I had foreknowledge that davesaz's miller claim was

apparently retracted/changed into 'some negative utility'

at a later point.

The underlined is incorrect.
I stated that I'm miller. At a later point I said that my "ability" section had flavor in it. There has never been a retraction / change about the role -- it's straight Commonwealth miller with nothing else, and nothing but the flavor in the ability section.

Oh, that makes a difference then. I was under the impression from the list of claims that it had changed later in the game during a section I hadn't read.

With the knowledge it hasn't, you become a reasonably solid punread. Not as solid as MariaR and projectmatt (the Strong Punread section), but enough to have your own special category of "Punread".

Though I'm tempted to lump you in with them for this.

Punreader's analysis assumes a: that scum!Jungle wouldn't gambit, b: that town would inevitably lynch scum!Jungle after these events making it a low chance of success.

Yes, and those are safe assumptions to make as assuming those is working with occam's razor whereas assuming JUNGLE gambits as pun and that the town wouldn't inevitably lynch a pun JUNGLE is a violation of occam's razor.

I don't know if a gambit is likely or unlikely, I just know it can't be ruled out.

Nothing "can be ruled out". There is (almost) nothing which is impossible in a game. (Almost) everything CAN happen.

The job of a town player is to determine

which things most likely

did

happen

.

Gambiting is something which could have happened.
It is not something that is likely to have happened.

Ignoring the probability (rather, lack thereof) of it happening in favor of embracing the possibility it happened is thoroughly a pro-pun agenda.

The PLAN might have been for Impossibear to die, and scum!Jungle is then functionally a loud fruit vendor at very little risk.

When did JUNGLE claim the power? Was it on D1? This is something I don't know.

So feel free to correct me here, if JUNGLE announced his power on D1.

If JUNGLE didn't claim the power until D2, then this scenario you are outlining is impossible. The plan going awry? Well then JUNGLE simply has no need to claim the action.

Not claiming it loses the possibility of using it at all.

Yes, and if the power is pro-town and JUNGLE is pun...why is this a bad thing for the pun?

Having a competent mod design a quest with that degree of complexity and then allowing it to fail on a technicality when the intent was clear stretches credibility a little.

Counterpoint: this is a game moderated by GuyInFreezer. I know his modding well enough to know this is

precisely

the sort of stunt he would pull.

I suppose a mod could be that hardcore and town!Jungle could make that mistake, but it seems very unlikely.

What seems unlikely to me is you trying to find every possible reason to call JUNGLE pun ignoring all the reasons why he is likely town.

Moving on to the question of whether town would inevitably punish scum!Jungle with a lynch -- it seems that WIFOM might be king here and we might not do so simply on the "mistake".

Oh? And where do you draw the line on WIFOM? Everything could be WIFOM. So what WIFOM is 'valid' to you, and what WIFOM is 'invalid' to you? You can call anything WIFOM and I can demonstrate this quite easily if you doubt me. So what makes the possibility here be WIFOM to you worth invoking that name?

But that is very short sighted, to excuse it as human error and not a possible gambit.

No, that is called following occam's razor with a dosage of hanlon's razor:
Not attributing to malice what can best be explained far more simply with stupidity.
The simple answer is stupidity.
The complex answer requiring contrived justifications is malice based on some possible gambit.

If we look at Jungle

outside the quest info

, what would the read be?

If we look at JUNGLE outside of the quest info, the read would be solidly nulltown; there is nothing indicating pun and yet minor signs indicating town.

[Kokichi Oma]

Prodge

[Punreader]

I've mentioned this before in other games, but I haven't been keeping solid track on who I've seen as scum and who I haven't. So I don't know if I have seen Nero lurk as scum.
I can say conclusively that the argumentative and pushy Nero that I've seen as town was not present in this game. And Projectmatt's posting hasn't struck me as town.

I would be willing to accept a Projectmatt lynch if necessary, but would prefer that we resolve Jungle. If we allow scum!Jungle to push another fruitless outlandish quest on town it might damage us beyond repair. Am I wrong to think it's within the mod's range to include something tantalizing as a way to punish a greedy town? In the unlikely event Jungle is really town, it would be bad to lose the potential upside, but I can't see the game being designed so that town needs the quest to win. Furthermore if Jungle is town and the quest is powerful, why would scum leave the quest giver alive?

"I'm not going to lynch pun #1 in spite of acknowledging the evidence against him".

Regarding Maria, I know we can count on RC to have invited another member to the neighborhood. We can hope that at least one of them is town. If the neighborhood generates a track result on someone who visits, it yields two conf or a town/scum dipole. I think we wait on her to see what results there are, if any.

"I'm not going to lynch pun #2 on the basis of role-related reasons; we should wait for her to produce conftown in spite of me having just said we should not allow JUNGLE to produce results". (Hello, hypocrite.)

I know you're IC and all, but nice job on Wraith there. I never did get the explanation that I wanted on that. IC's wanting to lynch obvtown is sadly a thing.

This is the absolute most pro-pun thing a player can do to a person that is conftown; he is attempting to discredit Kaede's push/content now off of Kaede's push yesterday when

Kaede wasn't even the main pusher of the Wraith lynch

.

Did I say davesaz was in a special punread category?

My mistake.

He is in the strong punreads category with MariaR and projectmatt.

[Punreader]

I feel perhaps my snark weakens the strength of my point. So to reiterate,

If we allow scum!Jungle to push another fruitless outlandish quest on town it might damage us beyond repair. Am I wrong to think it's within the mod's range to include something tantalizing as a way to punish a greedy town? In the unlikely event Jungle is really town, it would be bad to lose the potential upside, but I can't see the game being designed so that town needs the quest to win. Furthermore if Jungle is town and the quest is powerful, why would scum leave the quest giver alive?

Regarding Maria, I know we can count on RC to have invited another member to the neighborhood. We can hope that at least one of them is town. If the neighborhood generates a track result on someone who visits, it yields two conf or a town/scum dipole. I think we wait on her to see what results there are, if any.

What differentiates these two, davesaz?

You are saying to lynch Jungle on the possibility his role may damage us; you are willing to sacrifice the utility of his ability.

You are saying to not lynch Maria on the possibility her role may help us; you are not willing to sacrifice the utility of her ability.

Care to offer an explanation?

[Punreader]

@Kaede -- quote anything from Jungle that doesn't involve the quest that is obviously town. Anything that is making the slightest effort to solve the game.

Innocent until proven guilty; the burden of proof is on the accuser.

@dave: quote anything from JUNGLE that doesn't involve the quest that is obviously pun. Anything that is making the slightest effort to manipulate the town.

[Punreader]

>when your 2 sr's are the biggest wagon
it's Christmas time to see who I can lynch first

And yet you vote neither.

[Punreader]

Town OTM and town you is possible if we make the additional assumption of Scum JK/Busdriver.

Or even redirector. I concluded these three roles were possible already, and I maintain that projectmatt is the most likely holder of them.

There is no scum motivation to giving the vig the Party Starter if the vig is hard townreading you (we were, fairly obviously). There is no scum motivation in NOT giving the strong willed modifier to your partner if there is a town RB. OTM claimed yesterday. The paranoia wrt to OTM makes perfect sense from someone who isn't nuts in the exact same way as me

This is enough to move Alchemist into my locktown pile, as I buy this.

AND because of RC's setup spec D2.

For the record, it was the spec which prompted me to ask the question to the mod about the ability swapper. The reason I asked was because I don't really agree with the setup speculation; if you wish to townread me, then utilizing other reasoning is for the best.

With that said, I'm going to drop an action plan for Maria shortly to hopefully turn her and her neighbor into a mason pair, so it's a bad lynch today anyway.

I maintain that any plan which relies on her being town is a bad plan, but acknowledge we can have better lynches and that the plan will at least help demonstrate her alignment when she refuses to cooperate.

I don't think you should telegraph your hide tonight because: There's probably a busdriver

I don't see why. The mod told me my Hide is equal to a Commute in NAR. This means I always hide behind my intended target. Now, if pun want to shoot my target when I'm hiding behind players that should be lynched, power to them. If town wants to shoot my target when I'm hiding behind players that should be lynched, then they would be taking that shot anyway.

[Ankamius]

Popping in to clarify at this point that my question about Alchemist is specifically before that post

[Punreader]

Pun, do you have experience with projectmatt?

Enough to say he is one of the most underrated pun players on the site. He has an elite pungame which consistently performs quite well, yet almost nobody seems to be aware of this. I would attribute it at least in part to not being able to strongly differentiate between his towngame and his pungame.

His pungame is almost identical to his towngame in my experience, making it difficult to distinguish between the two. Yet he is an incredibly

good

town player, which translates into extreme hesitance to lynch him when he is pun because he is a master of making it look like he is a good town player when he is pun.

This doesn't mean it is impossible to read him, of course. I acknowledge I personally hold little ability to tell the difference and that he is incredibly competent as either alignment. This is one of the main reasons why I am adamant you not trust him and ignore that he replaced Nero Cain. Nero had strong evidence which suggested overwhelmingly he was far more likely to be pun than town, and projectmatt regardless of his alignment was going to make people like him because

that's just what he does

.

[Punreader]

Pun, do you have experience with projectmatt?

Actually, can you go more into your Alchemist read specifically?

Not particularly, no. Aside from how the evidence Impossibear gives does move him into town, I have been viewing his actions and seen a player who I can see the town thought process behind his actions.

I may not agree with what Alchemist21 has been doing (similar to wilky), but I can still understand what he is doing, how he got to where he is, and trace the thought process. It demonstrates an incredibly visible, easy-to-read narrative, one which is not likely to come from a pun player. He felt highly transparent, but with just enough opaque that it wasn't out of the question altogether for him to be pun.

Knowing what his role is removes that opaqueness altogether and now I feel like I can see the full picture of his process, start to finish, thus the read upgrade.

[Punreader]

Since there have been changes to my reads, an update:

HAS COMMON INTERESTS:

Kaede Akamatsu
Wilky
hebichan/OnTheMark
Alchemist21
Dunnstral
REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE

HIGHLY LIKELY TOWN:

Impossibear (EspeciallyTheLies + Jingle) (may deserve to be higher again)
Ankamius
verylazy/Kokichi Oma

LEFTOVER:

Ramcius

STRONG PUNREADS:

davesaz
MariaR
Nero Cain/projectmatt

[projectmatt]

(I'll be a bit miffed if nobody takes the time to at least take a cursory look at what I just provided given it took me an hour to compile just five years out of the total of eight years of Large Theme games.)

i appreciate the effort, but i'm not going to respond to the meta-case because i don't know nero cain and it would be silly to try to argue about something so subjective.

could you do me a favor and iso me? you've implied that you haven't read a lot of my posts. or, at the very least, read the last couple of pages comprehensively.

requoting in case pun missed it.

also pun, have you played with me on mafiascum or on another mafia website? i'm genuinely curious, just because i don't play here that often.

[MariaR]

waiting for impoe bear to answer me then we lynch matt

[davesaz]

Punreader, I’m town and we disagree. I happen to think you’re town too.
Not lynching scum Jungle is likely worse than lynching town Jungle.
I’m very concerned that scum Jungle could play a fruit vendor all the way to endgame. How many broken quests would it take?
Sometimes ruling out the unlikely case is necessary. If logical answers always worked town win rates would be higher.
Scum lie and because they lie sometimes the unlikely answer is the correct one.

I already said I agree with a projectmatt lynch, if that is where consensus lies.
I see two scum being wagoned and that’s good imo.

[projectmatt]

can any of the people voting me substantiate their read on me? so far, my requests for explanations have gone ignored, and it seems like a lot of people are piggybacking off of punreader's meta case, which is concerning.

[projectmatt]

also if any of the people voting me (or about to vote me) post again without answering, im going to assume they're making it up.

[projectmatt]

the amount of scum manipulation that's been happening to allow for a wraith lynch and me being (likely) lynched back to back is actually really throwing me off.

something is off.

[Ankamius]

RC had a hand in that though, pm

[projectmatt]

maybe it's my confirmation bias speaking, but i thought rc's case was absolutely absurd, and he never responded when i refuted it.

definitely doesn't justify what's happening today.

[OnTheMark]

Prod dodging til Saturday

[Impossibear]

waiting for impoe bear to answer me then we lynch matt

Ofc.

Case 1: Two town neighborhood. Your neighborhood partner is not getting shot on the basis of RC's role. There's far better options for a nightkill than a 1 shot tracker who knows the identity of one other town player, even if that player is suspect.
Case 2. 1 Scum 1 Town. In the case you're the scum, well... nothing lost there. If your partner is the one that is scum, you can be killed, at which point the possible guilty on scum disappears. But, you say, I can crumb their identity! Well, why? You're STILL not the nightkill, and odds are if you crumb well enough for town to get it, scum will get it first.
Case 3. 2 Scum. Locking you into the mason claim today is protown as shit. You then have to choose whether to hard crossbus tomorrow or deal with the fact that a guilty on one slot is a guilty on both for the rest of the game.

(I'll be a bit miffed if nobody takes the time to at least take a cursory look at what I just provided given it took me an hour to compile just five years out of the total of eight years of Large Theme games.)

i appreciate the effort, but i'm not going to respond to the meta-case because i don't know nero cain and it would be silly to try to argue about something so subjective.

could you do me a favor and iso me? you've implied that you haven't read a lot of my posts. or, at the very least, read the last couple of pages comprehensively.

requoting in case pun missed it.

also pun, have you played with me on mafiascum or on another mafia website? i'm genuinely curious, just because i don't play here that often.

Pun mostly if not exclusively plays here. Also, I looked over some of your completed games and found at least one with pun in it.

With that said, I'm going to drop an action plan for Maria shortly to hopefully turn her and her neighbor into a mason pair, so it's a bad lynch today anyway.

I maintain that any plan which relies on her being town is a bad plan, but acknowledge we can have better lynches and that the plan will at least help demonstrate her alignment when she refuses to cooperate.

I don't think you should telegraph your hide tonight because: There's probably a busdriver

I don't see why. The mod told me my Hide is equal to a Commute in NAR. This means I always hide behind my intended target. Now, if pun want to shoot my target when I'm hiding behind players that should be lynched, power to them. If town wants to shoot my target when I'm hiding behind players that should be lynched, then they would be taking that shot anyway.

The plan as detailed doesn't rely on her being town, it turns a oneshot communal tracker into either a pair confirmed to be the same alignment, or a hard 1v1. And there's two people who will be responsible for making sure there are no lies. We're here to milk every last bit of the utility of the role, not rely on the role. Also, I noticed that Maria claims to have an investigation independent of the track, so please ignore that part of my post.

The spec from RC reset the mechanical scumread to a slight townlean. You don't have to worry about us townbinning you and forgetting to keep you accountable.

Fair nuff. Not sure why, but I was thinking that busdrive was before hide, in which case not only could they shoot you and a strong town player simultaneously OR fake a guilty on you whichever they chose, but they could do so by targeting a player who would almost certainly not be getting protected and who was more likely to attract an investigation. I maintain that you don't need to telegraph, but it's not antitown like I thought it was.

PMatt:

Your interactions with both OTM and Ouro struck me as throwing gas on a fire, there's a lot of complaining about people talking about mechanics without pushing reads in your ISO, and you really only seemed interested in pushing your reads when you yourself were under pressure.

Further, your flip if scum with a night action is outright damning for Maria.

[Ramcius]

Ramcius, it's impossible to debate with you because your only technique is to deflect questions against you with absurd and contradictory points. I've pointed out a lot of these, but you keep moving the goalposts. It's not worth it.

@EVERYONE,

please read Ramcius's last few posts. I think they're really telling of scum-flailing.

i agree, everyone should look into how you ignore everything i say and keep on same bs like a broken record - how you can compare my vote on Ank D1 and your push on me D2, but refuse compare my push on Wraith and your push on me D2? former is me doing reaction test and not trying shift wagon, while latter is me shifting wagon from my townread and your "attempt" to shift wagon from your "townread". Next big point is your attempt to highlight my "agenda" in saying that scum where off Wraith wagon, but let's look at Wraith wagon - you/Maria/Kokichi were off wagon. You may ask why Maria and Kokichi? Maria is pretty obvious i hope, and you avoiding speak about Kokichi and ignoring my attempts to bring it up your bias towards him, when you use complete opposite treatment to me and him for same actions

[Dunnstral]

UNVOTE:

I'll take a look at what you wrote tomorrow

[wilky]

Prod dodge I will catch up properly tomorrow.

What I have read OTM is barely scratching the surface on motives behind anything and needs to think more about whats actually happening. Maria is still scum. Ram is still scum

and you still couldn't make case to prove your scumread on me, some things never changes...

Its almost like I have been busy irl

Prod dodge I will catch up properly tomorrow.

What I have read OTM is barely scratching the surface on motives behind anything and needs to think more about whats actually happening. Maria is still scum. Ram is still scum

This is still scum too.

My flip will prove that.

My flip will prove otherwise...

Summary
MariaR is in a neighborhood with Dunn and Ouroboros created by Ouroboros.
That neighborhood also controls a tracker among all of them, track target must be agreed to by majority.
If there's 1 or more scum in the hood the track will always yield "didn't visit" regardless.
MariaR claims to track matt and getting "didn't visit"
matt confirms this.
wilky claims no result and blames OTM for it.
OTM says he targeted dave.

Alternative theory tying these together. MariaR is pun, and thus, regardless of whom was tracked, the result would be "didn't visit". projectmatt was selected (Ouroboros wanted it and MariaR knowing it could create a false negative went along with this) to falsely clear him as regardless of whether he took an action or not it would always display as him having not taken one due to MariaR's alignment being pun. willky's action failed because MariaR's role provided immunity to the investigation. (Alternatively, projectmatt has a blocking role and targeted willky.)

willky, Dunnstral, and OnTheMark are all town; MariaR and projectmatt completely messed up the town's actions.

Furthermore, JUNGLE is town who made a mistake.

My thinking is pretty much summed up here.

scum: ramcius, maria, dunn.

Talk to me about Maria/Dunn together, I can't see Maria/Dunn being linked due to the whole scout thing earlier by Maria.
Infact a scum!maria flip would heavily imply town!dunn to me.

Regarding Jungle:

Punreader's analysis assumes a: that scum!Jungle wouldn't gambit, b: that town would inevitably lynch scum!Jungle after these events making it a low chance of success.

I don't know who Jungle is and make it a policy not to dig. If someone wants to play as an alt and has the discipline to stay in character, more power to them. So I don't know if a gambit is likely or unlikely, I just know it can't be ruled out. The PLAN might have been for Impossibear to die, and scum!Jungle is then functionally a loud fruit vendor at very little risk. Not claiming it loses the possibility of using it at all. So claiming an outlandish quest might be a gambit to salvage the role's usefulness.

Having a competent mod design a quest with that degree of complexity and then allowing it to fail on a technicality when the intent was clear stretches credibility a little. I suppose a mod could be that hardcore and town!Jungle could make that mistake, but it seems very unlikely.

Moving on to the question of whether town would inevitably punish scum!Jungle with a lynch -- it seems that WIFOM might be king here and we might not do so simply on the "mistake".
But that is very short sighted, to excuse it as human error and not a possible gambit. If we look at Jungle

outside the quest info

, what would the read be? I maintain that the read should be scum based on the evidence.

There's scum gambits and then theres scum suicide. I still can't see any motivation for Jungle to do what he did as scum.

So tell me.
Why is it so hard for you to believe that a town player made an honest mistake and it must without a doubt be a scum player trying to manipulate town.

Because a moderator doesn’t require a submit after.

Find me any action ever in any theme game at all

That requires player A submit to Player B and then people do something then Player A does something.

I just don’t think that is a thing. It’s more likely a fruit vendor than a new type of action.

Does your role have information that proves this? If not its hearsay

So tell me.
Why is it so hard for you to believe that a town player made an honest mistake and it must without a doubt be a scum player trying to manipulate town.

Because a moderator doesn’t require a submit after.

Find me any action ever in any theme game at all

That requires player A submit to Player B and then people do something then Player A does something.

I just don’t think that is a thing. It’s more likely a fruit vendor than a new type of action.

This doesn't actually indicate anything btw, this isn't exactly a normal role in normal circumstances.

Yes loud scum fruit vendor is.

Mini Normal 1900 modded by Mastina.

Which is why if Jungle is scum go after punreader next

Both are town.

If you're gonna argue that scum was using the quest to waste town's time, then you gotta find suspects that helped town waste time by not helping with said quest.
I want names.

>when your 2 sr's are the biggest wagon
it's Christmas time to see who I can lynch first

Punreader, I’m town and we disagree. I happen to think you’re town too.
Not lynching scum Jungle is likely worse than lynching town Jungle.
I’m very concerned that scum Jungle could play a fruit vendor all the way to endgame.

How many broken quests would it take?

Sometimes ruling out the unlikely case is necessary. If logical answers always worked town win rates would be higher.
Scum lie and because they lie sometimes the unlikely answer is the correct one.

I already said I agree with a projectmatt lynch, if that is where consensus lies.
I see two scum being wagoned and that’s good imo.

Give him until the end of tomorrow. No result, then lynch Jungle.

[REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE]

i cant wait for punreader to altslip and we find out who it is