Open 725: Jungle Republic - Day 5

[Fumuki]

The deal I propose is that we lynch elsewhere today AND tomorrow as long as TW doesn't get shoot tonight. That way we have a confirmed town, and a confirmed scum that we can analyze interactions in real time. Plus, I think it's already crystal clean the division between people that are likely to be Mafia and people that are likely to be Wolf with the Duckling soft claim thing.

If we repeatedly lynch mafia candidates in the next two days, and Duckling check one of the guys in the werewolves pool in night 2, I think everyone gets benefited aside from the red colored guys.

We can even make another deal with AP later if he would like, and Werewolves would still have AP's vote and presence + the possibility of spread WIFOM depending of what AP says.

I'll review this deal later to see if there's nothing wrong with it (I'm not, let's say, at the best of my conditions right now), but what do you think AP? Can we work with this?

Hmm...in a side note...

I was kinda unenthusiastic in the begin but multiball is starting to sound interesting even while being green, I love making deals and strategies this way, and only in multiball I'm able to try it out.

[the worst]

as I said a few times yday MB D1 is soooo bad especially for town

[the worst]

flips = fun time

but ya your plan works as long as AP's down, I think it's better to flip maf today since we have a guaranteed scumflip

[Fumuki]

If we follow my plan above I strongly suggest checking Ceejay tonight btw. We can even call him conftown if he isn't wolf by the way that Pintu pushed him when there was two other wagons.

[Fumuki]

but ya your plan works as long as AP's down, I think it's better to flip maf today since we have a guaranteed scumflip

No. You guys aren't counting the vague possibility of UglyDuck being town and I don't know why.

If UglyDuck ever flips town and the werewolves are shooting you, we could lose two townies at once and the ratio of scum:town in day 3 would be 2:4:2. in other words, a 4:4. The same amount of scum that there's of townies.

If we lynch AP today and Werewolves shoot you, day 3 is 1:5:2, what sounds way better.

Lynching UglyDuck today only is beneficial if we were 100% sure that he is scum.

[the worst]

2:4:2.

= AP quicklynch

[the worst]

also never never confirming my target tonight.

[Fumuki]

2:4:2.

= AP quicklynch

Heh, I talked a lot to try to hide that fact and you point it out so easily...saddening...

To be honest I wanted Werewolves to balance between shooting mafia (UD) or shooting the Seer (you), hoping that you could miraculously still be alive in day 3 and have checked Ceejay and either get a guilty or give him a conftown status but...

I'm not convincing you guys to lynch AP today even if he doesn't accept the deal huh...?

Hmmmm...

Yeah, there's not much difference between lynching AP today or tomorrow if there is no deal, although if we by any chance mislynch today and in night 4 Werewolves shot town, things are going to get ugly but whatever...I too think that UD is flipping either mafia or wolf

[Fumuki]

also never never confirming my target tonight.

Not going to argue against it but consider checking Ceejay. It's almost conftown status if you don't get a guilty.

[UglyDuck]

Oh look, fuggoscum is piping up

OK, here's a serious offer:

Lynch UD today. If he flips Mafia then I will shoot tw and tomorrow it's 1-1-6. That is VERY good for the town.
Lynch UD. If he flips town I shoot someone of tw's choice. That's also fair enough bc if I hit a Mafioso we are 2-1-5 tomorrow, and if I hit a townie that's 2-2-4, but I'm tomorrow's lynch anyway AND the duckling gets to deliver one more result on who is/isn't a WW.

Let's vote on that proposal.

HEAL: AP's proposal in 1449

Proposal VC:
Yay (1): AP
Nay (0)
Not Voting: Everyone else

What if i say that if you lynch me and i want you to lynch TW? Why would do suggest that (and then flip town?). People this game are honestly being a little ridiculous. We should lynch AP bc that reveals the most info. If not then you are all just like whatever. I wanna be polite and not say stupid... but stupid.
If you lynch me, whatever do it, just lynch TW tomorrow.

[UglyDuck]

Oh look, fuggoscum is piping up

OK, here's a serious offer:

Lynch UD today. If he flips Mafia then I will shoot tw and tomorrow it's 1-1-6. That is VERY good for the town.
Lynch UD. If he flips town I shoot someone of tw's choice. That's also fair enough bc if I hit a Mafioso we are 2-1-5 tomorrow, and if I hit a townie that's 2-2-4, but I'm tomorrow's lynch anyway AND the duckling gets to deliver one more result on who is/isn't a WW.

Let's vote on that proposal.

HEAL: AP's proposal in 1449

Proposal VC:
Yay (1): AP
Nay (0)
Not Voting: Everyone else

What if i say that if you lynch me and i want you to lynch TW? Why would do suggest that (and then flip town?). People this game are honestly being a little ridiculous. We should lynch AP bc that reveals the most info. If not then you are all just like whatever. I wanna be polite and not say stupid... but stupid.
If you lynch me, whatever do it, just lynch TW tomorrow.

And the prob AP. And then if skitter is alive.. skitter.

[the worst]

O.o

Mfw scumfuggo suggests lynching the only conftown person in the game

[UglyDuck]

O.o

Mfw scumfuggo suggests lynching the only conftown person in the game

It was obv to prove a point about how bad y’all reads are... i said “after i flip town...”

[Pine]

Yawn

Fuggo still scum

[Not_Mafia]

I like how this name has caught on

[AP]

If UglyDuck ever flips town and the werewolves are shooting you

If UD flips town I'm NOT shooting he duck. That's the deal I'm offering.

Otherwise, I don't see how your plan is any different than my plan. "We lynch elswhere (i.e. UD) and we let the duck check someone IF UD is Mafia.

[AP]

Guys, do you think I (a confirmed WW) would want the Seer to get another check? I absolutely DON'T. So when I make such an offer it means one of two things:

1- I'm as positive as a cation that UD is Mafia
OR
2- I'm lying through my teeth and will still shoot tw anyway

Now I request that those of you who

really

know me evaluate the situation. More to it, am I a man of my word or not?

[the worst]

I like how this name has caught on

it's genius tbqh

[the worst]

Guys, do you think I (a confirmed WW) would want the Seer to get another check? I absolutely DON'T. So when I make such an offer it means one of two things:

1- I'm as positive as a cation that UD is Mafia
OR
2- I'm lying through my teeth and will still shoot tw anyway

Now I request that those of you who

really

know me evaluate the situation. More to it, am I a man of my word or not?

in my experience with AP, hardcore gambiting is usually a positive (or town) tell, obviously in this case not a town tell!
he's more likely to keep his word, and if he doesn't just powerlynch him with fire on my seer flip. NM has already softclaimed his partner so he makes a good d4 lynch.


for now lettuce squish the mafiaa

[UglyDuck]

I like how this name has caught on

it's genius tbqh

I don't get it, but I like it

[UglyDuck]

so... I am catching up here and just trying to figure some stuff out... someone grab a glue stick and help me with this cluster.

1) TW claims Seer, but then Not Mafia Counter Claims him? Kind of... like I guess that is question #1 I find it hard to take NM seriously so is that just like sarcasm/joke or are they actually claiming?
2) TW claims to have a WW result on AP. They also think I am Mafia.
3) AP creates an idea about lynching me today and then they promises to follow 1 of 2 paths...
- Path 1 - I flip over as Mafia, so AP shoots TW under the assumption that it will create a 1-1-6 next day? This is asinine. Like regardless of me and my defense of myself... if anyone is actually buying into the idea that "because I flip Mafia, TW MUST be a WW" needs to re-think that. AP's job as an essentially conf!WW is not to make lives easier, it is still to give his partner the best shot possible. Just this idea, right here. Makes literally no sense at all from AP PoV. We currently sit at 2WW-2MAF-6TWN. If you lynch me and I flip MAF then we are at, 2WW-1MAF-6TWN. Then, AP says he will kill TW and that will make it 1WW-1MAF-6TWN. This is not a vaccum people, it is like real... when shit changes it changes other shit. Example, we cannot assume that WW!AP gets the shots to put us in the situation, if WW!AP also shoots WW!TW. His point would be that "he can't be WW bc why would he do it" - which is fair. But from an analytical perspective.... this promoted idea is a faulty syllogism.

- Path 2 - I flip over as Town and he kills someone of TW's choosing. Well IDK what to say other than TW if you go with this plan idea, you need to come up with a better alternative. Because what is going to happen is I am going to flip over as Town. And then he is gonna say "yeah babe who you want me to kill?". You pick someone.At first I wanted to say "one of two things would happen", but no thats bs. One of one thing will happen. He shoots the claimed Seer.


TLDR - I am gonna flip town. When that happens we go from our current 2WW-2MAF-6TWN, down to 2WW-2MAF-5TWN. Then TW gets to pick a target. Then AP will most likely shoot elsewhere and bring us to either 2WW-1MAF-5TWN or 2WW-2MAF-4TWN. Assuming TW is Seer, most likely the second option ----> for those that are slow to read you should take a second at this point and pause the tape. this creates two situations where we enter D3 with both WW left alive. ----> Thennn we will wake up D3 and (god I fucking hope) you all would lynch AP. Assuming AP is Seer, and AP kills them, that puts us at end of D3 sitting 1WW-2MAF-4TWN
Then we go to N3 and they get a kill so we are at 1WW-2MAF-3TWN or 1WW-1MAF-4TWN. That is 1/6 players left in the game after the actions that this conf!WW is setting in place like will absolutely happen, that can commit a NK. They either put themselves in a spot where they control and equal amount of power as every other individual (plus a NK) or they have to find one more Mafia to have that equality.

After this point The start of Day 4. It could go kind of any which way, it is too far out to make assumptions. But if I am not lying, this is where we will be at D4 without a doubt. And I would kind of just honestly assume that the WW gets away with it for one more day, so that means start D5 25% of the remaining field is a person that can NK. Since it is multiball that is "find the WW or lose".


So whatever. You are all either full of it or being lazy, but I am town. Lynch me tomorrow please for the love of fucking god, because if you do it today you have a 1/6 shot on D4 and a final day 1/4 shot. Lynch him today. I don't even care about the "if he flips this" convo. I assume he will flip WW. The other will obv leave me alive and kill TW and then you all think I am Mafia anyways so I would make this same argument as either Town or Mafia. The difference is pretty much nothing - TW dies tonight in both cases (don't see how people don't get that is a thing), and then either it goes me today and AP tomorrow or AP today and me tomorrow. Start D4 we in the same spot.
Nothing difference #1- on the fucking off chance that TW is fake claim... we find out with no seer outing.
Nothing difference #2- interaction time of D3 with me alive instead of AP (which I get sounds bias, but think about it, even if I am Mafia it is more advantageous for Town).
Nothing difference #3- Someone might get fucking smart and realize I am Town.


Listen to Fuggo.

[ArcAngel9]

VOTE COUNT - 2.2

Pine

-

skitter30

-

Sando

-

the worst

- AP,

ceejayvinoya

-

Ruby Red

-

UglyDuck

- Not_Mafia ,

Not_Mafia

- the worst

AP

- , ceejayvinoya, Fumuki, UglyDuck, Pine

Fumuki

-

Not Voting

Sando, Ruby Red, skitter30

With 10 alive it takes 6 for a lynch and 5 for no lynch.
Day 2 ends in (expired on 2018-06-12 07:40:00)

[/b][/color]

[Not_Mafia]

so... I am catching up here and just trying to figure some stuff out... someone grab a glue stick and help me with this cluster.

1) TW claims Seer, but then Not Mafia Counter Claims him? Kind of... like I guess that is question #1 I find it hard to take NM seriously so is that just like sarcasm/joke or are they actually claiming?
2) TW claims to have a WW result on AP. They also think I am Mafia.
3) AP creates an idea about lynching me today and then they promises to follow 1 of 2 paths...
- Path 1 - I flip over as Mafia, so AP shoots TW under the assumption that it will create a 1-1-6 next day? This is asinine. Like regardless of me and my defense of myself... if anyone is actually buying into the idea that "because I flip Mafia, TW MUST be a WW" needs to re-think that. AP's job as an essentially conf!WW is not to make lives easier, it is still to give his partner the best shot possible. Just this idea, right here. Makes literally no sense at all from AP PoV. We currently sit at 2WW-2MAF-6TWN. If you lynch me and I flip MAF then we are at, 2WW-1MAF-6TWN. Then, AP says he will kill TW and that will make it 1WW-1MAF-6TWN. This is not a vaccum people, it is like real... when shit changes it changes other shit. Example, we cannot assume that WW!AP gets the shots to put us in the situation, if WW!AP also shoots WW!TW. His point would be that "he can't be WW bc why would he do it" - which is fair. But from an analytical perspective.... this promoted idea is a faulty syllogism.

- Path 2 - I flip over as Town and he kills someone of TW's choosing. Well IDK what to say other than TW if you go with this plan idea, you need to come up with a better alternative. Because what is going to happen is I am going to flip over as Town. And then he is gonna say "yeah babe who you want me to kill?". You pick someone.At first I wanted to say "one of two things would happen", but no thats bs. One of one thing will happen. He shoots the claimed Seer.


TLDR - I am gonna flip town. When that happens we go from our current 2WW-2MAF-6TWN, down to 2WW-2MAF-5TWN. Then TW gets to pick a target. Then AP will most likely shoot elsewhere and bring us to either 2WW-1MAF-5TWN or 2WW-2MAF-4TWN. Assuming TW is Seer, most likely the second option ----> for those that are slow to read you should take a second at this point and pause the tape. this creates two situations where we enter D3 with both WW left alive. ----> Thennn we will wake up D3 and (god I fucking hope) you all would lynch AP. Assuming AP is Seer, and AP kills them, that puts us at end of D3 sitting 1WW-2MAF-4TWN
Then we go to N3 and they get a kill so we are at 1WW-2MAF-3TWN or 1WW-1MAF-4TWN. That is 1/6 players left in the game after the actions that this conf!WW is setting in place like will absolutely happen, that can commit a NK. They either put themselves in a spot where they control and equal amount of power as every other individual (plus a NK) or they have to find one more Mafia to have that equality.

After this point The start of Day 4. It could go kind of any which way, it is too far out to make assumptions. But if I am not lying, this is where we will be at D4 without a doubt. And I would kind of just honestly assume that the WW gets away with it for one more day, so that means start D5 25% of the remaining field is a person that can NK. Since it is multiball that is "find the WW or lose".


So whatever. You are all either full of it or being lazy, but I am town. Lynch me tomorrow please for the love of fucking god, because if you do it today you have a 1/6 shot on D4 and a final day 1/4 shot. Lynch him today. I don't even care about the "if he flips this" convo. I assume he will flip WW. The other will obv leave me alive and kill TW and then you all think I am Mafia anyways so I would make this same argument as either Town or Mafia. The difference is pretty much nothing - TW dies tonight in both cases (don't see how people don't get that is a thing), and then either it goes me today and AP tomorrow or AP today and me tomorrow. Start D4 we in the same spot.
Nothing difference #1- on the fucking off chance that TW is fake claim... we find out with no seer outing.
Nothing difference #2- interaction time of D3 with me alive instead of AP (which I get sounds bias, but think about it, even if I am Mafia it is more advantageous for Town).
Nothing difference #3- Someone might get fucking smart and realize I am Town.


Listen to Fuggo.

Your tl;dr is longer than the main part of your post

[AP]

TLDR - I am gonna flip town.

If that is try then you are buying the seer another night of survival. Not a bad trade for town I'd still say.

[AP]

Your tl;dr is longer than the main part of your post

OMG! tw? How could you EVER suggest shooting this??