SUPP 2017 MAFIA: COMPLETE


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Post Post #7 (isolation #0) » Sun Jun 03, 2018 7:14 am

Post by Punreader »

Mobile posting, so I can't provide full details now, but:
I am Cheetory6, and I have a Conditional Bulletproof.
The main condition is me being the most popular player.


This isn't quite as broken as it sounds because there IS a second condition, but for obvious reasons, that condition is best left unclaimed so that the pun don't know when I can/cannot be shot.
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Post Post #9 (isolation #1) » Sun Jun 03, 2018 9:37 am

Post by Punreader »

Another important detail to claim:
At least one of the numbers I have (i.e. 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 0) has a modified value in its weight.
It could count for nothing, it could count for half, it could count for double, it could count for triple, I'm not sure if I should claim what value it holds but what I am getting at here is that my ability to influence popularity is not the standard and has at least one property which is modified in at least one way.

I strongly suspect I am not the only player to have this type of modification.


For obvious reasons, I believe this should be at least partially claimed, if not fully claimed. It is my opinion that a failure to do so would be a punclaim.

I also believe we should claim our ratings and why the moment D2 begins, for maximum accountability.
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Post Post #55 (isolation #2) » Sun Jun 03, 2018 4:45 pm

Post by Punreader »

In post 51, Chara wrote:regarding Cheet's roleclaim
Since the evidence is already there for those who care to look, I should clarify I am not in fact
the scummer
Cheetory. That's my role. As the winner of the SUPP 2017, I was given some fun toys, namely the conditional BP and modified vote weight.
In post 37, TehBrawlGuy wrote:anyway help me sort the bolded players who I haven't played with in a while/ever
3. Punreader
You've played with me? This is news to me.
In post 26, Espeonage wrote:This early, with the aim to increase public knowledge, yeah. It's town points.
No, not really. It's a fine starting point of discussion regardless of alignment.
In post 11, Shoshin wrote:Scum'll probably lie either way, though.
Sure, but the results of the night will haunt them for the rest of the game.

As players are revealed town, their results are revealed as accurate.

Off of the results, off of who ended up being eliminated, this can help us narrow in on players that were less-than-truthful.

Either way, the results help town if claimed immediately and reasons for why are given.

If the pun tell the truth, their stances need to be believable while still having furthered their wincon (we can use this in punhunting/townhunting); if the pun lie, their stances need to not only be believable but also not allow them to be
caught
in the lie.
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Post Post #57 (isolation #3) » Sun Jun 03, 2018 5:11 pm

Post by Punreader »

In post 56, DeasVail wrote:
In post 55, Punreader wrote:No, not really. It's a fine starting point of discussion regardless of alignment.
I always find it a bit strange when someone disagrees with a townread on them.
Odd, I've always found it a bit strange when someone
doesn't
disagree with a townread on them when they know the reasoning used is flawed.
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Post Post #180 (isolation #4) » Tue Jun 05, 2018 9:29 pm

Post by Punreader »

In post 99, Chara wrote:i thought Punreader was claiming to be an alt.
There's no need to claim what my signature reveals already. :wink:
In post 134, PenguinPower wrote:I'm actually a bit concerned about "punreader".
You should be off of what I claimed, yes. It's not exactly a town-sounding set of abilities. I promise you that if I fullclaimed, you would feel much better about my slot. You would also wish I had kept my mouth shut and left it at the partial claim.
In post 58, DeasVail wrote:The confidence in the fact that the reasoning is flawed is the strange part.
I fail to see why. The player with the most experience with themselves will always be...themselves. I would be quite concerned if I couldn't confidently state the reasoning was flawed given the subject was myself.
In post 80, Taly wrote:Mmm... I don't see scum-motivation here. There's no normal roles in this game, to my understanding, so why would
Pun
lie here?

And if he's scum WITH a BP, then there's probably a mechanical or role reason for this. In which case,
Pun
is actively sacrificing his role info., in the effect of getting a reaction from townies, possibly to give info.
There is an answer to this which would reveal why it is not nearly as town as you are assuming.

I don't think this is a reason I should share, but it contributes to the confidence in the action not being alignment-indicative.
In post 80, Taly wrote:Has that discussion helped you form reads?
Indirectly, yes. I'm still deciding at what time I'll reveal them. I can feasibly do it at any time, even during the night. (Role perk; yes this is a softclaim. I have Cheetory, the
winner of SUPP 2017
, as my role. It has many benefits.)

I was thinking perhaps shortly after every player had contributed content, as that'd leave time for refinement off of reactions. I'm sadly no Ellibereth, but I am a big fan of his work and bombshell-dropping style. Except instead of a bomb, I drop puns.
In post 121, Taly wrote:Too many people are playing null right now. It's a bit hard to conjure reads.
I will neutralize this problem before the start of next week. (Before Monday.)
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Post Post #303 (isolation #5) » Fri Jun 08, 2018 10:15 pm

Post by Punreader »

In post 284, PenguinPower wrote:I find it odd to without more information.
It is specifically because it was done without more information it's not odd. Bulletproof is normally a power you seek to conceal, but the specific nature of my role makes it harmless, even beneficial, to half-claim it.
In post 282, Taly wrote:
3)
When he's present, he engages with multiple people at once, drawing focus onto himself.
Actually this is me explicitly dicking around. When you see me truly
engage
people, you won't need to have me tell you; you'll instantly see it.
In post 182, DeasVail wrote:I think it's time for me to be a little less passive in how I approach things here.
I'll be doing similar within 72 hours. I'm still hoping for something I've yet to see manifest, which will impact my reads.
In post 277, Taly wrote:Your reads have no explanation, so I can't follow them that well.
This is another reason I've been stalling on posting my reads because I generate reads before I generate explanations. :shifty: (It's one of the main habits I'm using this account to break.)

Free preview:
In post 285, TehBrawlGuy wrote:PP's last post makes me feel that PP v Taly is not TvT. Dunno which one is the Scum yet, though. I'll catch that on re-read.
It is far from a surefire thing given I have limited experience with both players, but from what I know this is fairly standard Taly play and not what I'd expect from PenguinPower if he were town. This would not be something I'd state with any level of true confidence, but it has enough where I'll back your sentiment.
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Post Post #365 (isolation #6) » Sat Jun 09, 2018 3:54 pm

Post by Punreader »

In post 173, the worst wrote:yeah nothing by Punreader has impressed me
Wanted to come back to this and say: I am doing a reads compilation, and am rereading the thread to look for any aspects I've missed. You probably won't be impressed by the posted list (it's not special), but I intend to post the
reasons
behind the list approximately 24 hours (give or take 6-10 hours) after the reads; I'll be quite curious to see your reaction after.
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Post Post #368 (isolation #7) » Sat Jun 09, 2018 3:59 pm

Post by Punreader »

In post 232, Taly wrote:Before I get to replies, is ANYONE on the same page in this game?
Reads-wise, my reads are lining up with quite a number of individuals, actually. This is why I said my reads list won't be anything special; there shouldn't be any real surprises in there. The reasons (which I'll do tomorrow) are what will make it interesting.
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Post Post #369 (isolation #8) » Sat Jun 09, 2018 4:05 pm

Post by Punreader »

Alright, here we go.


TOWNIE TENS:

Chara

EAGER EIGHTS:

Dunnstral
ActionDan

SOLID SIXES:

Taly
Shoshin
MariaR
Espeonage

FINICKY FIVES:

the worst
Fire Assassin
DeasVail
Vaxkiller

UNFORTUNATE FOURS:

NicoRobin
ReubenWasFine

IN-BETWEEN THREES:

Srceenplay

TERRIBLE TWOS:

TehBrawlGuy
PenguinPower

ZOMBIFY THESE ZEROES:

Pine/TwoInAMillion
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Post Post #370 (isolation #9) » Sat Jun 09, 2018 4:06 pm

Post by Punreader »

Pardon the mistake.
I forgot to bump Taly up a tier. Apologies.

ACTUAL list:


TOWNIE TENS:

Chara

EAGER EIGHTS:

Taly
Dunnstral
ActionDan

SOLID SIXES:

Shoshin
MariaR
Espeonage

FINICKY FIVES:

the worst
Fire Assassin
DeasVail
Vaxkiller

UNFORTUNATE FOURS:

NicoRobin
ReubenWasFine

IN-BETWEEN THREES:

Srceenplay

TERRIBLE TWOS:

TehBrawlGuy
PenguinPower

ZOMBIFY THESE ZEROES:

Pine/TwoInAMillion
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Post Post #525 (isolation #10) » Sun Jun 10, 2018 1:06 pm

Post by Punreader »

In post 381, Chara wrote:punreader, i can't wait for why i'm a perfect ten.
Full version is coming, but the basic version is two factors.
One, something I suspect but shall not comment on any further. (This I will not go into detail on.) It is not much in of itself, but it certainly augments,
Two, experience. When you are town it displays and it is on display clearly.
In post 406, MariaR wrote:need to fill in the blanks I see
PenguinPower and Pine as your zeros. You won't regret it. Unless you're their teammate. :P
In post 411, TehBrawlGuy wrote:VOTE: pp
I buy the claim, I just think he's lying about the alignment of it. That's a straight-on perfect Scum role.
Agreed.
In post 467, DeasVail wrote:Hi Punreader. This reads list was pretty similar to where I was at that point in the game. Main exceptions are Chara's high placement (they're probably only a weak townread for me right now) and Pine being so low. So I'd be pretty interested in explanations of those.
Chara, the short version is above. Pine, the short version is that this is Pine transparently being a punfuck. I am intimately familiar with his meta as both alignments and I guarantee you his contribution this game is him as pun. I can cite multiple behavioral tells to this effect, from what content he is giving, what reads he has given, to the ways he has given it and I will do precisely that in the full version. He had no clue he was playing with
me
, so he didn't properly hide his tells that give him away to me.
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Post Post #527 (isolation #11) » Sun Jun 10, 2018 1:14 pm

Post by Punreader »

I'm beginning the full write-up now, but it may take me a while. (My estimate is 1-2 hours.)
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Post Post #528 (isolation #12) » Sun Jun 10, 2018 1:14 pm

Post by Punreader »

In post 526, Nahdia wrote:@Punreader when you say pun do you mean scum..?
Most commonly, yes. It has other uses, but that is the main one.
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Post Post #534 (isolation #13) » Sun Jun 10, 2018 2:05 pm

Post by Punreader »

Starting point:
In post 370, Punreader wrote:
TOWNIE TENS:

Chara

EAGER EIGHTS:

Taly
Dunnstral
Nahdia/ActionDan

SOLID SIXES:

Shoshin
MariaR
Espeonage

FINICKY FIVES:

the worst
Fire Assassin
DeasVail
Vaxkiller

UNFORTUNATE FOURS:

NicoRobin
ReubenWasFine

IN-BETWEEN THREES:

Srceenplay

TERRIBLE TWOS:

TehBrawlGuy
PenguinPower

ZOMBIFY THESE ZEROES:

Pine/TwoInAMillion
Since then, PenguinPower has become a zero, but I will detail that later; otherwise, this remains unchanged and is my reference point.

I'll begin by stating, most of my reads come from meta combined with motivations: what I expect to see as either alignment. I can do this for almost the entire playerlist to some extent, but some of these reads are going to have a stronger base than others. With that established...

Chara:
My Chara townread comes primarily from having many games' experience with it. I hesitate to Chare my past experience (as my meta comes from first-hand exposure, linking to examples would be traceable to my main), but the Chararal Chist of it is that Chara always Chows a strong aptitude for forwarding a town wincon. (Okay I'll stop that now.) When Chara is town, it demonstrates this by providing a transparent thought process where its reasoning can be traced, step by step, from beginning to end. This trait, in of itself, isn't town, but what amplifies it is the consistency and the delivery of it. It's not only the process itself, but the content therein. While Chara is not an elite punhunter, Chara's process still provides reasonable town positions to hold.

This is not something Chara can fake convincingly. You can always tell Chara is town by it demonstrating the genuine attempt to game solve, furthering the town wincon in the process. In spite of Chara not being an elite punhunter, in its own way, you can still hold a certain burden of proficiency to it; if Chara's stances don't seem reasonable positions to hold, then it could be pun. However, Chara's content this game
does
show reasonable stances, with reasonable justifications. I follow the process, even if I don't fully agree with it. I agree with more than I don't, and understand how Chara is getting from point A to point B. All of this strongly suggests town.

Taly:
If you Tally his posts, it should be immediately obvious why I hold this read. He has the highest post count in this game by far, and in those posts, constantly, neverending, there is content where he explains his reads, justifies his stances, asks questions, and engages players. Not in of itself enough to be town because tryhard pun is a thing, but when you look at the nature of the content it becomes clear he isn't just doing "busywork". His content builds off of itself; he follows through on the content, and when his stances change, there is a logical progression in the shift.

When he presents posts, he does so without an attempt to force us to wolf it down. This violetly aggressive pushing shows a desire to work with others in a way difficult, but not quite impossible, to fake. He is similar to Chara in this regard, but I don't have the same level of familiarity with him to be as confident on my read here as I do on Chara.

Dunnstral:
I may have been a little hasty in having him this high, but I feel this is his town game off of what little he has provided. Admittedly, he lurks as both alignments but initial signs point to town.

Nahdia/ActionDan:
This read comes from ActionDan, obviously. ActionDan didn't contribute much before leaving the game, but what he did give was enough to make me instantly feel this is his towngame. When ActionDan is town, I expect his reads to be fairly competent, and also to have some level of synchronization with mine. He was suspicious of Screenplay before even I was, and also noted suspicion on TehBrawlGuy well before the thought crossed my mind. Does this mean his reads are right, of course not, but the fact he saw the same slots I see as suspect before I did is an instantly promising sign. His analysis of Espeonage is fairly good as well, and I thought his position on Chara/Deas was indicative of solid, critical thinking of a type difficult to fake as pun.

However, the lack of overall activity and his natural competency as a pun player keep this from being a read I would more strongly Act on. Counterbalancing that, given he was replaced I'd say that isn't Danning at all, so I may be promoting Nahdia's slot.

Shoshin:
Shoshin is one of the players in this game I am least-familiar with, so I can't speak about her with any meta-based experience. However, just off of her play, I felt that her content was indicative of town solving. and are comments that could come from pun, but I lean town on. Many of the directions she's headed have felt like good ones; I've liked the inquiries in posts such as , , , , , , , , , , and . There's good analysis in . However, I'm a little concerned that a great amount of what she has done doesn't appear to have much follow-through to it. This is mitigated by the times I can see it (for instance, the continued Screenplay push), but there are many times where I don't see her evolution in process, keeping me from promoting her. Shoshi's reasonably town, yet not locktown.

MariaR:
I have extensive experience with Maria. I'm not at the point where I can soulread her (not even remotely close), but I still have a reasonable baseline for what she'll be like as town, and initial signs are promising. However, this is not something I can lock in because the best ally in reading her is time we've not had; you never know, something might Mar my Rid there later.

Espeonage:
I don't actually have a good ability to read Espeonage even though I've spied on plenty of his games before. He's a little difficult to pin down; a fair amount of his content
has
made me question him, but he always ninjas his way out by the end. It's mostly the little things which give him this rating; I liked his lighthearted banter seen in such places as , balanced nicely by more serious gamesolving. Many of his prods have felt good, yet this boon is ruined by the conclusions reached from them; his stated reads are, by and large, backwards from what I would expect. Espeonage is reasonably competent, yet all the players I'm suspicious of (Pine, PenguinPower, TehBrawlGuy, Screenplay) are players he's giving passes for whatever reason, even if he had genuine inquiries.

the worst:
Another player I can't reliably read, albeit in part owing to lack of extensive experience. the worst case scenario would be him as pun, but I don't have any reason to suspect he is. He doesn't particularly make me feel town, but lacking a reason to punread him, he may actually be worthy of promotion.

Fire Assassin:
Though I have the experience necessary to meta read Fire Assassin
in theory
, in practice I simply don't know what I'm doing with him and pretending I do would be detrimental. I have no clue what to look for; I have no tells on him; I don't know what indicates he's town or pun. I can tell you overall on his play alone, the content he has produced hasn't been a Sin, but if there is a strong town Fire, I've yet to see it lit. If I had to make a call, it would be town, but I would do so with no confidence whatsoever.

This is the midway point in my reads, and unfortunately I need to take a break to attend to something which came up, so this makes a good stopping point.
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Post Post #552 (isolation #14) » Sun Jun 10, 2018 3:02 pm

Post by Punreader »

In post 534, Punreader wrote:Starting point:
In post 370, Punreader wrote:
FINICKY FIVES:

DeasVail
Vaxkiller

UNFORTUNATE FOURS:

NicoRobin
ReubenWasFine

IN-BETWEEN THREES:

Srceenplay

TERRIBLE TWOS:

TehBrawlGuy
PenguinPower

ZOMBIFY THESE ZEROES:

Pine/TwoInAMillion
Continuing on:
DeasVail:
DeasVail is an incredibly talented pun player, and nothing he has done is out of his punrange. In fact, a fair amount of his content is actually the sort I'd expect if he were pun. For the longest time, he was
lower
in my readslist. What actually bumped him up was, in fact, when he gave
his
reads in . His Intervention was an incredible step in the right direction.

Though it's not impossible for him to distance/bus and it's a certainty my reads are far from perfect (and thus, that he could be pun that pushes town players I'm punreading), the significant overlap in reads and his explanation of his process all the same was enough to remove him from the lower half of my reads. Altogether, while he has a permanent Vail preventing me from putting him much higher, he is still someone I'd say is more likely town than not.

Vaxkiller:
Vaxkiller also has gone on a rollercoaster in my reads, from a six to a four before I settled on five. To some extent, he Vaxes me; I don't have a reliable way of reading his contribution. However, some of his pushes, while containing some...questionable...reasoning, look like they are genuinely going in the right direction. Not a killer-strong read, but enough that I want to keep him in the game longer.

NicoRobin:
Nico's not reacting in the way I would expect her to if she were town, but I want to wait longer before committing to this, because she also lurks/flakes plenty as town and this could be one of those times. If she does the thing I am expecting her to do as either alignment, I'll have a better handle on her.

ReubenWasFine:
There isn't much here and I have no game experience with Reuben, but Reuben's contributions to this game have been...lackluster. Not condemning, but certainly not endearing.

Screenplay:
Screenplay's contribution this game on the other hand have been somewhat indicative of pun. He is also fairly lackluster, but the difference is I have the experience with him to know that if he were town he
shouldn't
be. None of his contributions in this game have been even remotely endearing, and yet I've seen plenty of content sending up red flags, as early as . was hollow as well, with no purpose behind it. His reads such as in are opposite what they should be, and he is someone who I respect as a punhunter. Being on vacation feels like more of an excuse than anything else; he is posting plenty, he is reading everything (both of these are self-evident if you look at his iso), and yet in spite of this he is doing virtually nothing.

TehBrawlGuy:
This is another player I don't have much experience with, but his posting has continued to get worse. I'm having trouble explaining this one at the moment, so I'll try to tackle him in a separate post.

PenguinPower:
No need for me to explain my read here. I can simply recycle what I said on him before.
In post 473, Punreader wrote: PenguinPower had an incredibly town entrance, which was natural; there was absolutely nothing artificial or fake in his opening. This earned him the spot as my penultimate townread. Since then, there has been a perfect blend of being lighthearted and scumhunting; he's neither fluff posted nor been super serious. That is exactly what I would expect of him as town. Pending some major change, my townread there is never shifting its strength.
In post 964, Punreader wrote:
In post 892, PenguinPower wrote:I have no feelings on Titus right now. I am very skeptical of people who town read me D1 (outside a very small set of players), especially when they don't provide a reason as to why they town read me when asked.
I provided my reasoning.
In post 473, Punreader wrote:
In post 456, Jingle wrote:I'll bite the bait though, tell me about this PP read.
I already did; you should have paid attention the first time.
In post 294, Punreader wrote:
In post 28, PenguinPower wrote:Yea, but...I'm policy lynching...uh....
Power to you, my friend. I believe you have no place in a penitentiary.
PenguinPower had an incredibly town entrance, which was natural; there was absolutely nothing artificial or fake in his opening. This earned him the spot as my penultimate townread. Since then, there has been a perfect blend of being lighthearted and scumhunting; he's neither fluff posted nor been super serious. That is exactly what I would expect of him as town. Pending some major change, my townread there is never shifting its strength.
This still holds. I am quite positive you have been scumhunting and you yourself know that to be true. If you want me to point out the more 'lighthearted' content, I can.
Except this game, just invert it; PenguinPower's entrance this game was incredibly stilted. His posting this game has been entirely super-serious; he is altogether missing the lighthearted aspect. His focus has been too much on mechanics and not enough on punhunting. Add in that the role he claimed is literally a pun role, and he is a solid punread.

Pine:
I described the threefold reasons for this read briefly before.
In post 525, Punreader wrote:Pine, the short version is that this is Pine transparently being a punfuck. I am intimately familiar with his meta as both alignments and I guarantee you his contribution this game is him as pun. I can cite multiple behavioral tells to this effect, from what content he is giving, what reads he has given, to the ways he has given it and I will do precisely that in the full version. He had no clue he was playing with
me
, so he didn't properly hide his tells that give him away to me.
The way Pine gave his content was in his posting gimmick. Pine was giving his reads through the "hey Errant got really drunk and slipped in discord..." method. The mod may have told him to stop, but without the mod intervening there, he would have continued to use that gimmick for the whole game.

I can cite multiple references to this, but most famously would in fact be Civilization, something Nahdia should be all too aware of. Pine uses gimmicks to mask his pun content, as a way of hiding in plain sight. They have served him well in the past, acting as a way to engage others in an entertaining manner but also lead to them underestimating him.

Prior to the gimmick, which brings me to the first point, Pine was contributing nothing. This was part of where the punread originated. Pine willingly replaced into the game. What did he do after replacing in? Nothing. Pine replaced in at , page 7, on June 5th.
Pine's first content was , a singular line on PenguinPower echoing thread consensus (more on that when we get to point two), but his first full contribution is , page 19, on June 9th.

He has given no reasons for his reads. (The gimmick also helps to serve mask a lack of reasons.) And he has given reads on only a small fraction of the players in the game. And he has done nothing since choosing to replace in. I know Pine, and while he may adamantly deny it, as pun he is a lurker, both in the sense of not posting often and actively lurking a fair amount of the time he posts.

Were he town, he would have upon replacing in done his absolute best to give content in spite of having not read the game. Pine replacing in as town needs not have read the whole game to contribute opinions, but the Pine of this game did nothing...except for, when he did go with his gimmicky reads, defend the players in the game most likely to be pun.

Why is that condemning?

Because Pine is the strongest anti-busser pun player on the site. He will distance. He'll even vote a punbuddy. He might 'bus' in the sense that he'll pine after a punbuddy who makes sense to push but given the slightest excuse he'll abort it if he sees an opportunity to let the punbuddy live. And he sees opportunities even where by all rights none
should
be. By that I mean he sees a chance to abort a bus where other players insist to continue one.

This is particularly pertinent given PenguinPower. If you assume PenguinPower is pun, then is perfect distancing. Given the first opportunity, . And his other noteworthy townread? . The two players in the game aside from Pine, most likely to be pun, and Pine townreads them.

His approach this game has been pun. His content this game has been pun. This is, 100% guaranteed to be his pungame. He would never have played this way if he had known I was in the game, but since he was unaware of my presence, he thought that this strategy would go unnoticed.
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Post Post #665 (isolation #15) » Tue Jun 12, 2018 6:48 am

Post by Punreader »

I have content to respond to, which I will in circa 12 hours.
DO NOT END THE DAY BEFORE I CAN EXPLAIN WHY I AM DOING THIS AND GIVE RESPONSES TO THE RESPONSES TO MY READS.

Claim: Conditional Bulletproof/Conditional Vigilante; the conditions are inverses.

I actually lied.
I DO have a conditional bulletproof, but it only protects me from those who are ranked HIGHER; I was aiming for an ungated Vig, with the illusion of being bp.

To explain, I can kill people ranked lower than I am, but they can kill me; I can't kill people ranked higher than me, but they can't kill me.

This is why PenguinPower is literally a punclaim.

Details for everything in 12 hours.
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Post Post #680 (isolation #16) » Tue Jun 12, 2018 7:47 am

Post by Punreader »

In post 672, Pine wrote:Protected from people below them, kills people ranked higher. That screams “self-aligned” to me.

I’m not opposed to leashing it.
That role sure WOULD be perfect for 3p, but unfortunately for your attempted narrative, it is not the role I claimed.

I can kill the people who can kill me; I cannot kill the people who can't kill me.

As to why I claimed? Wait 11 hours for the details, but one factor is that I can't shoot N1. I CAN, by claiming, ensure PenguinPower is eliminated via
lowest score, making it an effective substitute for a Vig.
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Post Post #703 (isolation #17) » Tue Jun 12, 2018 1:49 pm

Post by Punreader »

First order of business, I'm going to spend some time responding to the older content.
In post 567, Shoshin wrote:
In post 552, Punreader wrote:Vaxkiller: Vaxkiller also has gone on a rollercoaster in my reads, from a six to a four before I settled on five. To some extent, he Vaxes me; I don't have a reliable way of reading his contribution. However, some of his pushes, while containing some...questionable...reasoning, look like they are genuinely going in the right direction. Not a killer-strong read, but enough that I want to keep him in the game longer.
This "rollercoaster from a six to a four to a five" feels fake.
Do you want me to do a Post By Post Analysis of Vaxkiller to prove what I mean? I kid you not, I can and will do it to show
precisely
why he has gone up and down and all around on my reads list.
In post 568, Shoshin wrote:I also don't like how Pun's rankings -- 10, 8, 8, 8, 6, 6, 6, 5, 5, 5, 5, 4, 4, 3, 2, 2, 0 -- don't match up to the actual rankings -- 10, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 6, 5, 5, 4, 4, 3, 2, 1, 0, 0, 0 -- seems like a very unnatural way to think about the game if you're actually trying to sort reads into a meaningful rankings list.
Your mistake is in thinking it's a
rankings
list.

It is not.

It is a
reads
list. Strongest town, strong town, weak town, various shades of null, potential pun, slight pun, pun, STRONG pun, approximately.

Read it again with that understanding and you will have a much better handling on where I am coming from.
In post 554, Srceenplay wrote:
In post 552, Punreader wrote:Screenplay: Screenplay's contribution this game on the other hand have been somewhat indicative of pun. He is also fairly lackluster, but the difference is I have the experience with him to know that if he were town he shouldn't be. None of his contributions in this game have been even remotely endearing, and yet I've seen plenty of content sending up red flags, as early as 106. 108 was hollow as well, with no purpose behind it. His reads such as in 177 are opposite what they should be, and he is someone who I respect as a punhunter. Being on vacation feels like more of an excuse than anything else; he is posting plenty, he is reading everything (both of these are self-evident if you look at his iso), and yet in spite of this he is doing virtually nothing.
I’m not sure who you are but this is bullshit. You have went way down on my list.
If it were bullshit as you say, then you'd be able to explain why it was bullshit. You're not as incompetent/lackluster as you are pretending to be.
In post 555, Nahdia wrote:I think their being stilted is pretty well excused by there being no votes. I think their progression towards and the way they claimed came off as town.
I very strongly do not think a lack of votes justifies being stilted. It is an excuse for slacking off, nothing more, especially given that the mod announced from the onset a willingness to track the votes even though they hold no weight. Check . That is Errantparabola's first votecount; the precedence for voting had already been established.

PenguinPower's complaint . Check the timestamps as well. Errantparabola's post 100 has no edit mark. That means it was not edited at a later date. That means it was made on Monday, June 4th; PenguinPower's post complaining was on Wednesday, June 6th. The moderator was
already providing a service that PenguinPower was complaining about a lack of
. His complaint was thus an excuse. Nothing more; the stilted nature of his entrance cannot be reasonably explained by it.

Furthermore, the progression of his claim is the opposite of town. He didn't immediately counter my claim. It was only when players began to show suspicion of his contributions to the game that he provided his claim. When that claim proved to make things worse rather than better, he fullclaimed. He knew he was getting in trouble, and was hoping the truth would make him look better.

This was one of the contributing factors in my decision to fullclaim. PenguinPower's claim progression was meant to protect him from being voted off N1...and if I didn't realclaim, he'd have gotten away with it because people like you were buying it.
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Post Post #704 (isolation #18) » Tue Jun 12, 2018 1:50 pm

Post by Punreader »

Er.
Slight correction.
Full 94 posts later. :facepalm:
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Post Post #706 (isolation #19) » Tue Jun 12, 2018 1:56 pm

Post by Punreader »

Meant to include this, but accidentally omitted it:
In post 631, Vaxkiller wrote:
In post 567, Shoshin wrote:
In post 552, Punreader wrote:Vaxkiller: Vaxkiller also has gone on a rollercoaster in my reads, from a six to a four before I settled on five. To some extent, he Vaxes me; I don't have a reliable way of reading his contribution. However, some of his pushes, while containing some...questionable...reasoning, look like they are genuinely going in the right direction. Not a killer-strong read, but enough that I want to keep him in the game longer.
This "rollercoaster from a six to a four to a five" feels fake.
Workin my way backwards, but yeah this confuses me as well. I'm a roller coaster but i Vex him, I push some, but something i do are questionable.. I look genuine, but not a strong read. I mean it dont get more wishy washy than that.
Vaxkiller, I realize English is not your first language, but perhaps you should look up the idiomatic expression like a roller coaster.

"Wishy-washy" is
precisely the definition of the expression
.
Yes you have gone up, yes you have gone down. Yes, you have things I like, yes you have things I don't like. That is precisely what I said my read on you was: uncertain, varying, constantly changing and shifting.
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Post Post #707 (isolation #20) » Tue Jun 12, 2018 2:06 pm

Post by Punreader »

While I'm there, missed this on my first readthrough:
In post 662, Chara wrote:i want to say Pine is scum, but i'm finding it difficult to rationalize what scum Pine's plan is this game, at all.
I already outlined it. Pine's team this game has some reasonable distancing, but is largely playing the same game: lackluster posting, lurking, and not contributing much. Giving the bare minimum to pass by, not drawing attention. Letting the active posters duke it out in town V town fighting, and subtly supporting this from the background. Focusing on mechanics talk rather than punhunting, for cheap towncred while avoiding giving hard stances that are difficult to back out of.

Is this an original plan? Why no, no it isn't. Is it a "boring" plan? Why yes, yes it is; it is thoroughly uninspired. Why doesn't that disqualify it from being Pine's plan? Because Pine is incredibly pragmatic and opportunistic. If he sees an opening to use a strategy, it doesn't matter how boring/unoriginal it is. He'll use it anyway because a plan which is boring yet practical is a more surefire way to win the game. He doesn't need to make flashy maneuvers. Flashy maneuvers are Pine's desperation moves, when he is backed into a corner.

The most unorthodox part of Pine's pun stratagem lies in his nightkills, something we haven't witnessed yet. His dayplay is not something very creative as he has no need to shift gears from the plan he knows will work, until something (like a player who is on an alt that secretly has loads of experience with him he was unaware of) throws a wrench in the plan. And he doesn't even enact that until the last possible moment; if he thinks he can salvage his original plan, at every opportunity, he will.

I can cite Turn of Camn as the most fresh example of this; at every point he was adamantly against altering the plan to account for Ellibereth, until he was given no choice. You were there so you should know precisely what I am talking about. Pine's play is his textbook punplay this game. He hasn't shifted gears yet because he still holds hope his plan will work, so it's still on display for all to see.
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Post Post #708 (isolation #21) » Tue Jun 12, 2018 2:38 pm

Post by Punreader »

In post 683, TehBrawlGuy wrote:pun what did you think about me accidentally shitposting half your role lmao
I internally had a nice laugh, and
almost
went and posted, "you jest, but a role similar to that is likely in the game", but at the last second I decided it would potentially tip my hand well before I had intended to. (I was planning on claiming anyway circa D3.)
In post 674, Pine wrote:PR is Cheetory. It’s entirely possible he simply wins if he’s ever on top.
No, but my abilities bear relevancy to this, as I indicated earlier. The flavor for my role indicates that I am the absolute best.

My bulletproof ability is stadium status. I am bulletproof as long as the shooter is above me in standing.
My vig ability is spreading the word. If the ranking of a player I target is below me, I'll kill them.
My ranking manipulation ability is libel and slander. It modifies at least one number's vote weight.
In post 676, Shoshin wrote:The combination of vig/bp feels like third party but it's tough to say either way. Probably worth investigating.
Early on? Bad strategy. Do you agree that I am EITHER: 3p OR: town?
If so, then investigating me early-on instead of investigating for town/pun is detrimental.
I do think I should be investigated
mid-game
, after we have at least 3 pun dead, but not before then. You know I have a role and am not vanilla; you know I can kill, thus tracking/following me is a waste; you know I have a gun, so a gunsmith is a waste; you can reasonably infer my roleclaim is accurate, so a rolecop is a waste; the only investigative not a waste is a cop and a cop should be looking to nail pun, not 3p, early in the game.
In post 681, TehBrawlGuy wrote:He's leashed now that he's claimed, and in the event he's Town he'll either draw a RB every night or see some use, and both are beneficial. The sudden addition of a no N1 modifier is kind of weird, but actually makes a lot of sense given that we have an extra death today because of rankings.
No, the reason I can't kill N1 is altogether different and should be stupidly obvious.
Rankings are done
during
N1.
Rankings are assigned at the
end
of N1.

How can I kill someone ranked lower than me before we actually have rankings?
Obviously, the answer is I can't. My role PM doesn't
tell
me I can't; it is an obvious inference from the given game mechanic. (That won't stop me from trying, but I expect Errant to tell me it's not possible.)

As for being leashed?
If the majority of the people asking for me to be leashed are in the bottom half of my reads (and that is currently the case), I refuse.
If the majority of the people asking for me to be leashed are in the top half of my reads (which is not currently the case), I will do so provided two additional conditions:
Condition #2:
I will not shoot someone in the top half of my readslist. The first reason for this would be that, obviously, someone in the top half of my readslist is more likely to outrank me (and thus make me not vig them), making it stupid to try.
The second, and far more important (and frankly, obvious) reason I won't shoot someone in the top half of my readslist is that them being in the top half of my readslist means I am townreading them and no duh, I refuse to shoot a townread because
that would be deliberately shooting at someone I think is town
, which is gamethrowing.

Condition #3:
I will not limit my vig to a single name. It must be a pool of 3-5 players, no more no less. More than five isn't really much of a leash at all, now, is it? Yet less than 3 narrows it down too much. 3-5 is the butter zone of vig names. The reason for not limiting it to a single name is also obvious enough if you think it through. If the pun know the EXACT player I am going to vig, that gives them many methods of failure otherwise unavailable to them.

By manipulating their votes, they can ensure my target is ranked higher than me (causing me to not vig them).
By doctoring my target, they can ensure my target survives a vig.
By rolestopping my target, they can ensure my target survives a vig.
If my target has an activated defensive ability, e.g. activated commute, activated bulletproof, activated pgo, then telling them I am going to shoot them allows for them to use it.
By jailkeeping my target, they can ensure my target survives a vig.
By roleblocking me, they can ensure my target survives a vig.
By jailkeeping me, they can ensure my target survives a vig.
By busdriving my target, they can ensure I vig someone we don't want dead.

That's a lot of failure methods.

In contrast, by using the pool of 3-5 names, the pun are forced to guess.
By having 3-5 names, it is SIGNIFICANTLY harder for the pun to manipulate the pool and ensure my target is ranked higher than me.
By having 3-5 names, the pun cannot guess with accuracy who I will shoot, thus cannot doctor my kill, leading them to potentially waste it if limited, use it wrong, or not use it when needed if limited.
By having 3-5 names, the pun cannot guess with accuracy who I will shoot, thus cannot rolestop my kill, leading them to potentially waste it if limited, use it wrong, or not use it when needed if limited.
By having 3-5 names, the pun cannot guess with accuracy who I will shoot, thus cannot jailkeep my kill, leading them to potentially waste it if limited, use it wrong, or not use it when needed if limited.
By having 3-5 names, the pun cannot guess with accuracy who I will shoot, thus cannot know whether using their activated defensive abilities is necessary, leading them to potentially waste them and also potentially not use them when needed.
By having 3-5 names, the pun cannot guess with accuracy who I will shoot, thus cannot know whether roleblocking me is a good or bad idea.
By having 3-5 names, the pun cannot guess with accuracy who I will shoot, thus cannot know whether jailkeeping me is a good or bad idea.
By having 3-5 names, the pun cannot guess with accuracy who I will shoot, thus making a successful busdrive unlikely.

The downside to this is that I am in fact less accountable, my actions can run afoul of town protectives targeting in the pool (unlikely as that may be given that this would be a pun pool so protectives SHOULDN'T be targeting consensus punreads), and the consequences of the pun getting it
right
are higher (for instance, say the pun DO correctly guess my target and successfully busdrive; I am placed in the rather ugly situation where two incredibly town players die overnight and my target did not, something which is statistically speaking unlikely to have occurred), but overall a pool rather than a specific name gives a much greater shot at making shots be meaningful.
In post 673, Dunnstral wrote:Pine is scummy on this page
Immensely so, and it is proof of the concept I am referring to.

He is shifting focus away from punhunting, and onto theory discussion. Theory discussion has the benefit of looking town and can offer him immediate towncred, while also distracting the town because theory discussion bears no ACTUAL alignment relevance.
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Post Post #709 (isolation #22) » Tue Jun 12, 2018 2:50 pm

Post by Punreader »

In post 700, PenguinPower wrote:I'm certain that he half claimed, then admitted to lying about his claim, then added a N1 modifier after being asked to vig me.
This is a fine narrative but one which fails to live up to reality.

I indicated from the onset that I was not claiming fully. I said from the beginning that my bulletproof was not as strong as indicated. I said there was a second condition. I said I wasn't claiming fully. I said that if I claimed fully, it would make sense, but that it would be detrimental for me to have done so. I laid this all out at the beginning; I was quite clear about the nature of my claim.

When I claimed my actual role, I outlined the nature of it. I made no such claim about having that modifier. I stated that I couldn't vig N1, not that I had a modifier stating I can't vig, because my role PM doesn't indicate it at all; it is simply self-evident from the nature of the claim. My vig works off of ranking. I can't vig someone when we don't have a ranking. Ranking is done N1. Thus, I cannot vig N1.
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Post Post #711 (isolation #23) » Tue Jun 12, 2018 2:57 pm

Post by Punreader »

In post 705, Srceenplay wrote:
In post 703, Punreader wrote:If it were bullshit as you say, then you'd be able to explain why it was bullshit. You're not as incompetent/lackluster as you are pretending to be.
That’s bull shit as well because you would know that I am incompetent at explaining.
No, you claim you are but you're not. You explain things better than you are pretending. Furthermore, you actually
try
to explain things. You don't leave things as empty statements; you still explain in spite of the "incompetence" at explaining.

I know this in part because I have a similar perspective as pun; I underestimate my own competency as town and pretend I am a worse town player than I actually am, and
this
is what I am saying you are doing. You are stating you are incompetent when I know for a fact you are not actually that incompetent. You likely have a self-perception you're not that incompetent, and thus as pun you "mute" your own competency.

Perhaps I am not explaining this as well as I should, but I feel my message gets across. There is a disconnect between the level of skill I have witnessed from you when you've been town, and the level of skill you are displaying in this game. That disconnect most likely originates from a perception of "I'm not a good town player, so I need to pretend I'm not a good player", leading to you as pun being less competent than you should be.
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Post Post #712 (isolation #24) » Tue Jun 12, 2018 3:00 pm

Post by Punreader »

In post 711, Punreader wrote:
In post 705, Srceenplay wrote:
In post 703, Punreader wrote:If it were bullshit as you say, then you'd be able to explain why it was bullshit. You're not as incompetent/lackluster as you are pretending to be.
That’s bull shit as well because you would know that I am incompetent at explaining.
No, you claim you are but you're not. You explain things better than you are pretending. Furthermore, you actually
try
to explain things. You don't leave things as empty statements; you still explain in spite of the "incompetence" at explaining.

I know this in part because I have a similar perspective as pun; I underestimate my own competency as town and pretend I am a worse town player than I actually am, and
this
is what I am saying you are doing. You are stating you are incompetent when I know for a fact you are not actually that incompetent. You likely have a self-perception you're not that incompetent, and thus as pun you "mute" your own competency.

Perhaps I am not explaining this as well as I should, but I feel my message gets across. There is a disconnect between the level of skill I have witnessed from you when you've been town, and the level of skill you are displaying in this game. That disconnect most likely originates from a perception of "I'm not a good town player, so I need to pretend I'm not a good player", leading to you as pun being less competent than you should be.
Another way of stating this:
I do not believe you're lying about thinking it's bullshit.
I do not believe you
think
you're lying about being incompetent.
I believe you fully
think
that you're incompetent as town.
But I believe that perception is flawed, and that you're
not actually incompetent as town in spite of believing you're incompetent as town
.
And
due to this flawed perception, as pun you act incompetently
.
Which introduces the disconnect.
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Post Post #720 (isolation #25) » Tue Jun 12, 2018 3:18 pm

Post by Punreader »

In post 713, Vaxkiller wrote:
In post 706, Punreader wrote:Meant to include this, but accidentally omitted it:
In post 631, Vaxkiller wrote:
In post 567, Shoshin wrote:
In post 552, Punreader wrote:Vaxkiller: Vaxkiller also has gone on a rollercoaster in my reads, from a six to a four before I settled on five. To some extent, he Vaxes me; I don't have a reliable way of reading his contribution. However, some of his pushes, while containing some...questionable...reasoning, look like they are genuinely going in the right direction. Not a killer-strong read, but enough that I want to keep him in the game longer.
This "rollercoaster from a six to a four to a five" feels fake.
Workin my way backwards, but yeah this confuses me as well. I'm a roller coaster but i Vex him, I push some, but something i do are questionable.. I look genuine, but not a strong read. I mean it dont get more wishy washy than that.
Vaxkiller, I realize English is not your first language, but perhaps you should look up the idiomatic expression like a roller coaster.

"Wishy-washy" is
precisely the definition of the expression
.
Yes you have gone up, yes you have gone down. Yes, you have things I like, yes you have things I don't like. That is precisely what I said my read on you was: uncertain, varying, constantly changing and shifting.
Dude, did you ride that new roller coaster?
Yeah, man, It was totally wishy washy.
roll·er coast·er
ˈˌrōlər ˈkōstər/Submit
noun
noun: rollercoaster
a thing that contains or goes through wild and unpredictable changes.

"a terrific roller coaster of a book"
Urban Dictionary wrote:Wishy Washy
Someone who can't make up there mind. Says they will do something, then don't...Or gives an opinion about how they feel and changes it later.
He said he wanted to break up with his girlfriend. Then the next day he didn't want to break up with his girlfriend. He is so wishy washy.
Literally, not figuratively, LITERALLY the same.
Wild, unpredictable changes, rollercoaster.
Someone who can't make up their mind, wishy washy.
What, pray tell, would you describe wild unpredictable changes as being when they come from a person? Indicative that the person is indecisive and can't make up their mind.
What, pray tell, would you describe the actions of someone who can't make up their mind? Wild and unpredictable, changing often.

They are synonymous.
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Post Post #721 (isolation #26) » Tue Jun 12, 2018 3:22 pm

Post by Punreader »

In post 718, Nahdia wrote:Holy crap are punreader's posts actually important or can I just like... do some skimming?
They are actually important if you
  1. Want to have any understanding of my role
  2. Want to have an understanding of my stances
  3. Want to actually win the game potentially as early as D2
But I suppose if that doesn't interest you, then no, they aren't.
In post 717, Vaxkiller wrote:Your usually more opinionated... but i ... have missed some.
Yes, precisely. Pine as town is usually more opinionated. He came in to this game as a replacement (displaying a clear desire to PLAY the game because he wouldn't have offered to replace in otherwise), and yet in spite of that you can count the number of stances he's taken on a single hand.

There is good reason he is my strongest punread.
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Post Post #722 (isolation #27) » Tue Jun 12, 2018 3:23 pm

Post by Punreader »

In post 721, Punreader wrote:
In post 718, Nahdia wrote:Holy crap are punreader's posts actually important or can I just like... do some skimming?
They are actually important if you
  1. Want to have any understanding of my role
  2. Want to have an understanding of my stances
  3. Want to actually win the game potentially as early as D2
But I suppose if that doesn't interest you, then no, they aren't.
I'll make it easy and do three separate posts, one for each point, behind a spoiler tag as to not literally double my iso length. Here, lemme show you.
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Post Post #728 (isolation #28) » Tue Jun 12, 2018 3:43 pm

Post by Punreader »

Spoiler: Understanding of my Role
In post 7, Punreader wrote:Mobile posting, so I can't provide full details now, but:
I am Cheetory6, and I have a Conditional Bulletproof.
The main condition is me being the most popular player.


This isn't quite as broken as it sounds because there IS a second condition, but for obvious reasons, that condition is best left unclaimed so that the pun don't know when I can/cannot be shot.
As indicated in later posts, my intention here was quite clear: the main condition to my vig
is
to be the most popular player. I
do
have a conditional bulletproof. I
do
have two conditions.

I was simply being misleading here to mask my intention; I was aiming for the vig rather than the bulletproof, because if I maintained this claim yet succeeded in obtaining the top spot, I'd be utterly vulnerable but the pun would
think
I'd be utterly invincible.
In post 9, Punreader wrote:Another important detail to claim:
At least one of the numbers I have (i.e. 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 0) has a modified value in its weight.
It could count for nothing, it could count for half, it could count for double, it could count for triple, I'm not sure if I should claim what value it holds but what I am getting at here is that my ability to influence popularity is not the standard and has at least one property which is modified in at least one way.

I strongly suspect I am not the only player to have this type of modification.


For obvious reasons, I believe this should be at least partially claimed, if not fully claimed. It is my opinion that a failure to do so would be a punclaim.

I also believe we should claim our ratings and why the moment D2 begins, for maximum accountability.
I claimed this both for full accountability and for pointing out that if
I
have vote manipulation, others certainly do as well, and a failure to disclose this in advance would be a punclaim.
In post 55, Punreader wrote:
In post 51, Chara wrote:regarding Cheet's roleclaim
Since the evidence is already there for those who care to look, I should clarify I am not in fact
the scummer
Cheetory. That's my role. As the winner of the SUPP 2017, I was given some fun toys, namely the conditional BP and modified vote weight.
In post 26, Espeonage wrote:This early, with the aim to increase public knowledge, yeah. It's town points.
No, not really. It's a fine starting point of discussion regardless of alignment.
Here I clarify my flavor claim, along with hinting at the true nature of my role; I have multiple (rather than just one) abilities. I also hinted at my claim not being as town as assumed, because I did in fact
lie
. The lie was minor, the deception was small, and the intention should in hindsight be obvious, but unambiguously I HAVE admitted that I did tell a lie, and I was stating as such here. The lie made it not be as town as people had assumed.
In post 180, Punreader wrote:
In post 134, PenguinPower wrote:I'm actually a bit concerned about "punreader".
You should be off of what I claimed, yes. It's not exactly a town-sounding set of abilities. I promise you that if I fullclaimed, you would feel much better about my slot. You would also wish I had kept my mouth shut and left it at the partial claim.
In post 80, Taly wrote:Mmm... I don't see scum-motivation here. There's no normal roles in this game, to my understanding, so why would
Pun
lie here?

And if he's scum WITH a BP, then there's probably a mechanical or role reason for this. In which case,
Pun
is actively sacrificing his role info., in the effect of getting a reaction from townies, possibly to give info.
There is an answer to this which would reveal why it is not nearly as town as you are assuming.

I don't think this is a reason I should share, but it contributes to the confidence in the action not being alignment-indicative.
In post 80, Taly wrote:Has that discussion helped you form reads?
Indirectly, yes. I'm still deciding at what time I'll reveal them. I can feasibly do it at any time, even during the night. (Role perk; yes this is a softclaim. I have Cheetory, the
winner of SUPP 2017
, as my role. It has many benefits.)
In post 303, Punreader wrote:
In post 284, PenguinPower wrote:I find it odd to without more information.
It is specifically because it was done without more information it's not odd. Bulletproof is normally a power you seek to conceal, but the specific nature of my role makes it harmless, even beneficial, to half-claim it.
Here I further reinforce those concepts: the lie made it not be as town as assumed, but the truth was something which was better off not being claimed.
In post 665, Punreader wrote:I have content to respond to, which I will in circa 12 hours.
DO NOT END THE DAY BEFORE I CAN EXPLAIN WHY I AM DOING THIS AND GIVE RESPONSES TO THE RESPONSES TO MY READS.

Claim: Conditional Bulletproof/Conditional Vigilante; the conditions are inverses.

I actually lied.
I DO have a conditional bulletproof, but it only protects me from those who are ranked HIGHER; I was aiming for an ungated Vig, with the illusion of being bp.

To explain, I can kill people ranked lower than I am, but they can kill me; I can't kill people ranked higher than me, but they can't kill me.

This is why PenguinPower is literally a punclaim.

Details for everything in 12 hours.
Here, people were beginning to give PenguinPower much-undeserved towncred for his claim, townreading what was actually a punclaim. I knew of this from my own role, but in order to expose PenguinPower, it was necessary for me to truthfully claim and reveal the real role so that people could understand
why
PenguinPower was specifically a punclaim. I was mobile posting at the time and thus had limited resources at my disposal, but I needed to make sure day was not ended before PenguinPower was exposed.
In post 680, Punreader wrote:
In post 672, Pine wrote:Protected from people below them, kills people ranked higher. That screams “self-aligned” to me.
That role sure WOULD be perfect for 3p, but unfortunately for your attempted narrative, it is not the role I claimed.

I can kill the people who can kill me; I cannot kill the people who can't kill me.

As to why I claimed? Wait 11 hours for the details, but one factor is that I can't shoot N1. I CAN, by claiming, ensure PenguinPower is eliminated via
lowest score, making it an effective substitute for a Vig.
I was still mobile posting and thus short on resources, among them time. I had to choose a post to quote, and Pine's was overall the best to allow me to clarify as much as I could in as little space as possible.

Vigging PenguinPower was something which wasn't viable, but which we could effectively get via eliminating him due to universal 0s.
In post 708, Punreader wrote:
In post 683, TehBrawlGuy wrote:pun what did you think about me accidentally shitposting half your role lmao
I internally had a nice laugh, and
almost
went and posted, "you jest, but a role similar to that is likely in the game", but at the last second I decided it would potentially tip my hand well before I had intended to. (I was planning on claiming anyway circa D3.)
In post 674, Pine wrote:PR is Cheetory. It’s entirely possible he simply wins if he’s ever on top.
No, but my abilities bear relevancy to this, as I indicated earlier. The flavor for my role indicates that I am the absolute best.

My bulletproof ability is stadium status. I am bulletproof as long as the shooter is above me in standing.
My vig ability is spreading the word. If the ranking of a player I target is below me, I'll kill them.
My ranking manipulation ability is libel and slander. It modifies at least one number's vote weight.
In post 676, Shoshin wrote:The combination of vig/bp feels like third party but it's tough to say either way. Probably worth investigating.
Early on? Bad strategy. Do you agree that I am EITHER: 3p OR: town?
If so, then investigating me early-on instead of investigating for town/pun is detrimental.
I do think I should be investigated
mid-game
, after we have at least 3 pun dead, but not before then. You know I have a role and am not vanilla; you know I can kill, thus tracking/following me is a waste; you know I have a gun, so a gunsmith is a waste; you can reasonably infer my roleclaim is accurate, so a rolecop is a waste; the only investigative not a waste is a cop and a cop should be looking to nail pun, not 3p, early in the game.
In post 681, TehBrawlGuy wrote:He's leashed now that he's claimed, and in the event he's Town he'll either draw a RB every night or see some use, and both are beneficial. The sudden addition of a no N1 modifier is kind of weird, but actually makes a lot of sense given that we have an extra death today because of rankings.
No, the reason I can't kill N1 is altogether different and should be stupidly obvious.
Rankings are done
during
N1.
Rankings are assigned at the
end
of N1.

How can I kill someone ranked lower than me before we actually have rankings?
Obviously, the answer is I can't. My role PM doesn't
tell
me I can't; it is an obvious inference from the given game mechanic. (That won't stop me from trying, but I expect Errant to tell me it's not possible.)

As for being leashed?
If the majority of the people asking for me to be leashed are in the bottom half of my reads (and that is currently the case), I refuse.
If the majority of the people asking for me to be leashed are in the top half of my reads (which is not currently the case), I will do so provided two additional conditions:
Condition #2:
I will not shoot someone in the top half of my readslist. The first reason for this would be that, obviously, someone in the top half of my readslist is more likely to outrank me (and thus make me not vig them), making it stupid to try.
The second, and far more important (and frankly, obvious) reason I won't shoot someone in the top half of my readslist is that them being in the top half of my readslist means I am townreading them and no duh, I refuse to shoot a townread because
that would be deliberately shooting at someone I think is town
, which is gamethrowing.

Condition #3:
I will not limit my vig to a single name. It must be a pool of 3-5 players, no more no less. More than five isn't really much of a leash at all, now, is it? Yet less than 3 narrows it down too much. 3-5 is the butter zone of vig names. The reason for not limiting it to a single name is also obvious enough if you think it through. If the pun know the EXACT player I am going to vig, that gives them many methods of failure otherwise unavailable to them.

By manipulating their votes, they can ensure my target is ranked higher than me (causing me to not vig them).
By doctoring my target, they can ensure my target survives a vig.
By rolestopping my target, they can ensure my target survives a vig.
If my target has an activated defensive ability, e.g. activated commute, activated bulletproof, activated pgo, then telling them I am going to shoot them allows for them to use it.
By jailkeeping my target, they can ensure my target survives a vig.
By roleblocking me, they can ensure my target survives a vig.
By jailkeeping me, they can ensure my target survives a vig.
By busdriving my target, they can ensure I vig someone we don't want dead.

That's a lot of failure methods.

In contrast, by using the pool of 3-5 names, the pun are forced to guess.
By having 3-5 names, it is SIGNIFICANTLY harder for the pun to manipulate the pool and ensure my target is ranked higher than me.
By having 3-5 names, the pun cannot guess with accuracy who I will shoot, thus cannot doctor my kill, leading them to potentially waste it if limited, use it wrong, or not use it when needed if limited.
By having 3-5 names, the pun cannot guess with accuracy who I will shoot, thus cannot rolestop my kill, leading them to potentially waste it if limited, use it wrong, or not use it when needed if limited.
By having 3-5 names, the pun cannot guess with accuracy who I will shoot, thus cannot jailkeep my kill, leading them to potentially waste it if limited, use it wrong, or not use it when needed if limited.
By having 3-5 names, the pun cannot guess with accuracy who I will shoot, thus cannot know whether using their activated defensive abilities is necessary, leading them to potentially waste them and also potentially not use them when needed.
By having 3-5 names, the pun cannot guess with accuracy who I will shoot, thus cannot know whether roleblocking me is a good or bad idea.
By having 3-5 names, the pun cannot guess with accuracy who I will shoot, thus cannot know whether jailkeeping me is a good or bad idea.
By having 3-5 names, the pun cannot guess with accuracy who I will shoot, thus making a successful busdrive unlikely.

The downside to this is that I am in fact less accountable, my actions can run afoul of town protectives targeting in the pool (unlikely as that may be given that this would be a pun pool so protectives SHOULDN'T be targeting consensus punreads), and the consequences of the pun getting it
right
are higher (for instance, say the pun DO correctly guess my target and successfully busdrive; I am placed in the rather ugly situation where two incredibly town players die overnight and my target did not, something which is statistically speaking unlikely to have occurred), but overall a pool rather than a specific name gives a much greater shot at making shots be meaningful.
This post contains further elaboration on my actions: what was going on in my head early in the game with the joke claim (which I knew was a joke claim), with further clarification on the details of my role including flavor and critically: paraphrasing my abilities, both their names and effects.

From there it is theory talk, discussing optimal investigation times (most investigatives are always a waste; the one which isn't, cop, should be focusing on nailing pun earlier in the game), plus discussing the reasons for why I am not currently letting myself be leashed and why if I do there are specific conditions that need to be met before I agree.
This can actually nicely be summed up by one post:
In post 709, Punreader wrote:I indicated from the onset that I was not claiming fully. I said from the beginning that my bulletproof was not as strong as indicated. I said there was a second condition. I said I wasn't claiming fully. I said that if I claimed fully, it would make sense, but that it would be detrimental for me to have done so. I laid this all out at the beginning; I was quite clear about the nature of my claim.

When I claimed my actual role, I outlined the nature of it. I made no such claim about having that modifier. I stated that I couldn't vig N1, not that I had a modifier stating I can't vig, because my role PM doesn't indicate it at all; it is simply self-evident from the nature of the claim. My vig works off of ranking. I can't vig someone when we don't have a ranking. Ranking is done N1. Thus, I cannot vig N1.
So there's my role and how you can understand it. My process, start to finish, and what it is exactly.
Let me give an Alternative perspective.
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Post Post #729 (isolation #29) » Tue Jun 12, 2018 3:45 pm

Post by Punreader »

In post 724, Nahdia wrote:i feel like scum is lurking pretty hard rn.
Then you should rate Pine 0 and give a low rating to Screenplay.
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Post Post #730 (isolation #30) » Tue Jun 12, 2018 4:02 pm

Post by Punreader »

Spoiler: Understanding of my Stances
In post 303, Punreader wrote:Free preview:
In post 285, TehBrawlGuy wrote:PP's last post makes me feel that PP v Taly is not TvT. Dunno which one is the Scum yet, though. I'll catch that on re-read.
It is far from a surefire thing given I have limited experience with both players, but from what I know this is fairly standard Taly play and not what I'd expect from PenguinPower if he were town. This would not be something I'd state with any level of true confidence, but it has enough where I'll back your sentiment.
This still holds. In the PenguinPower-Taly exchange, PenguinPower plays exactly to what I'd expect of his punplay, and Taly comes out looking incredibly town from the fight.
In post 370, Punreader wrote:
TOWNIE TENS:

Chara

EAGER EIGHTS:

Taly
Dunnstral
ActionDan

SOLID SIXES:

Shoshin
MariaR
Espeonage

FINICKY FIVES:

the worst
Fire Assassin
DeasVail
Vaxkiller

UNFORTUNATE FOURS:

NicoRobin
ReubenWasFine

IN-BETWEEN THREES:

Srceenplay

TERRIBLE TWOS:

TehBrawlGuy
PenguinPower

ZOMBIFY THESE ZEROES:

Pine/TwoInAMillion
Here I post my readslist, and deliver the promise that reasons will come in 24 hours. (As it turned out, I finished 23 hours later.)
In post 534, Punreader wrote:Since then, PenguinPower has become a zero, but I will detail that later; otherwise, this remains unchanged and is my reference point.

I'll begin by stating, most of my reads come from meta combined with motivations: what I expect to see as either alignment. I can do this for almost the entire playerlist to some extent, but some of these reads are going to have a stronger base than others. With that established...

Chara:
My Chara townread comes primarily from having many games' experience with it. I hesitate to Chare my past experience (as my meta comes from first-hand exposure, linking to examples would be traceable to my main), but the Chararal Chist of it is that Chara always Chows a strong aptitude for forwarding a town wincon. (Okay I'll stop that now.) When Chara is town, it demonstrates this by providing a transparent thought process where its reasoning can be traced, step by step, from beginning to end. This trait, in of itself, isn't town, but what amplifies it is the consistency and the delivery of it. It's not only the process itself, but the content therein. While Chara is not an elite punhunter, Chara's process still provides reasonable town positions to hold.

This is not something Chara can fake convincingly. You can always tell Chara is town by it demonstrating the genuine attempt to game solve, furthering the town wincon in the process. In spite of Chara not being an elite punhunter, in its own way, you can still hold a certain burden of proficiency to it; if Chara's stances don't seem reasonable positions to hold, then it could be pun. However, Chara's content this game
does
show reasonable stances, with reasonable justifications. I follow the process, even if I don't fully agree with it. I agree with more than I don't, and understand how Chara is getting from point A to point B. All of this strongly suggests town.

Taly:
If you Tally his posts, it should be immediately obvious why I hold this read. He has the highest post count in this game by far, and in those posts, constantly, neverending, there is content where he explains his reads, justifies his stances, asks questions, and engages players. Not in of itself enough to be town because tryhard pun is a thing, but when you look at the nature of the content it becomes clear he isn't just doing "busywork". His content builds off of itself; he follows through on the content, and when his stances change, there is a logical progression in the shift.

When he presents posts, he does so without an attempt to force us to wolf it down. This violetly aggressive pushing shows a desire to work with others in a way difficult, but not quite impossible, to fake. He is similar to Chara in this regard, but I don't have the same level of familiarity with him to be as confident on my read here as I do on Chara.

Dunnstral:
I may have been a little hasty in having him this high, but I feel this is his town game off of what little he has provided. Admittedly, he lurks as both alignments but initial signs point to town.

Nahdia/ActionDan:
This read comes from ActionDan, obviously. ActionDan didn't contribute much before leaving the game, but what he did give was enough to make me instantly feel this is his towngame. When ActionDan is town, I expect his reads to be fairly competent, and also to have some level of synchronization with mine. He was suspicious of Screenplay before even I was, and also noted suspicion on TehBrawlGuy well before the thought crossed my mind. Does this mean his reads are right, of course not, but the fact he saw the same slots I see as suspect before I did is an instantly promising sign. His analysis of Espeonage is fairly good as well, and I thought his position on Chara/Deas was indicative of solid, critical thinking of a type difficult to fake as pun.

However, the lack of overall activity and his natural competency as a pun player keep this from being a read I would more strongly Act on. Counterbalancing that, given he was replaced I'd say that isn't Danning at all, so I may be promoting Nahdia's slot.

Shoshin:
Shoshin is one of the players in this game I am least-familiar with, so I can't speak about her with any meta-based experience. However, just off of her play, I felt that her content was indicative of town solving. and are comments that could come from pun, but I lean town on. Many of the directions she's headed have felt like good ones; I've liked the inquiries in posts such as , , , , , , , , , , and . There's good analysis in . However, I'm a little concerned that a great amount of what she has done doesn't appear to have much follow-through to it. This is mitigated by the times I can see it (for instance, the continued Screenplay push), but there are many times where I don't see her evolution in process, keeping me from promoting her. Shoshi's reasonably town, yet not locktown.

MariaR:
I have extensive experience with Maria. I'm not at the point where I can soulread her (not even remotely close), but I still have a reasonable baseline for what she'll be like as town, and initial signs are promising. However, this is not something I can lock in because the best ally in reading her is time we've not had; you never know, something might Mar my Rid there later.

Espeonage:
I don't actually have a good ability to read Espeonage even though I've spied on plenty of his games before. He's a little difficult to pin down; a fair amount of his content
has
made me question him, but he always ninjas his way out by the end. It's mostly the little things which give him this rating; I liked his lighthearted banter seen in such places as , balanced nicely by more serious gamesolving. Many of his prods have felt good, yet this boon is ruined by the conclusions reached from them; his stated reads are, by and large, backwards from what I would expect. Espeonage is reasonably competent, yet all the players I'm suspicious of (Pine, PenguinPower, TehBrawlGuy, Screenplay) are players he's giving passes for whatever reason, even if he had genuine inquiries.

the worst:
Another player I can't reliably read, albeit in part owing to lack of extensive experience. the worst case scenario would be him as pun, but I don't have any reason to suspect he is. He doesn't particularly make me feel town, but lacking a reason to punread him, he may actually be worthy of promotion.

Fire Assassin:
Though I have the experience necessary to meta read Fire Assassin
in theory
, in practice I simply don't know what I'm doing with him and pretending I do would be detrimental. I have no clue what to look for; I have no tells on him; I don't know what indicates he's town or pun. I can tell you overall on his play alone, the content he has produced hasn't been a Sin, but if there is a strong town Fire, I've yet to see it lit. If I had to make a call, it would be town, but I would do so with no confidence whatsoever.

This is the midway point in my reads, and unfortunately I need to take a break to attend to something which came up, so this makes a good stopping point.
Here I give my basic process, outlining that my read on PenguinPower has strengthened from punread to STRONG punread. I lay out the groundwork for the top half of my readslist, which can loosely be thought of as my townreads.
In post 552, Punreader wrote:
DeasVail:
DeasVail is an incredibly talented pun player, and nothing he has done is out of his punrange. In fact, a fair amount of his content is actually the sort I'd expect if he were pun. For the longest time, he was
lower
in my readslist. What actually bumped him up was, in fact, when he gave
his
reads in . His Intervention was an incredible step in the right direction.

Though it's not impossible for him to distance/bus and it's a certainty my reads are far from perfect (and thus, that he could be pun that pushes town players I'm punreading), the significant overlap in reads and his explanation of his process all the same was enough to remove him from the lower half of my reads. Altogether, while he has a permanent Vail preventing me from putting him much higher, he is still someone I'd say is more likely town than not.

Vaxkiller:
Vaxkiller also has gone on a rollercoaster in my reads, from a six to a four before I settled on five. To some extent, he Vaxes me; I don't have a reliable way of reading his contribution. However, some of his pushes, while containing some...questionable...reasoning, look like they are genuinely going in the right direction. Not a killer-strong read, but enough that I want to keep him in the game longer.

NicoRobin:
Nico's not reacting in the way I would expect her to if she were town, but I want to wait longer before committing to this, because she also lurks/flakes plenty as town and this could be one of those times. If she does the thing I am expecting her to do as either alignment, I'll have a better handle on her.

ReubenWasFine:
There isn't much here and I have no game experience with Reuben, but Reuben's contributions to this game have been...lackluster. Not condemning, but certainly not endearing.

Screenplay:
Screenplay's contribution this game on the other hand have been somewhat indicative of pun. He is also fairly lackluster, but the difference is I have the experience with him to know that if he were town he
shouldn't
be. None of his contributions in this game have been even remotely endearing, and yet I've seen plenty of content sending up red flags, as early as . was hollow as well, with no purpose behind it. His reads such as in are opposite what they should be, and he is someone who I respect as a punhunter. Being on vacation feels like more of an excuse than anything else; he is posting plenty, he is reading everything (both of these are self-evident if you look at his iso), and yet in spite of this he is doing virtually nothing.

TehBrawlGuy:
This is another player I don't have much experience with, but his posting has continued to get worse. I'm having trouble explaining this one at the moment, so I'll try to tackle him in a separate post.

PenguinPower:
No need for me to explain my read here. I can simply recycle what I said on him before.
In post 473, Punreader wrote: PenguinPower had an incredibly town entrance, which was natural; there was absolutely nothing artificial or fake in his opening. This earned him the spot as my penultimate townread. Since then, there has been a perfect blend of being lighthearted and scumhunting; he's neither fluff posted nor been super serious. That is exactly what I would expect of him as town. Pending some major change, my townread there is never shifting its strength.
In post 964, Punreader wrote:
In post 892, PenguinPower wrote:I have no feelings on Titus right now. I am very skeptical of people who town read me D1 (outside a very small set of players), especially when they don't provide a reason as to why they town read me when asked.
I provided my reasoning.
In post 473, Punreader wrote:
In post 456, Jingle wrote:I'll bite the bait though, tell me about this PP read.
I already did; you should have paid attention the first time.
In post 294, Punreader wrote:
In post 28, PenguinPower wrote:Yea, but...I'm policy lynching...uh....
Power to you, my friend. I believe you have no place in a penitentiary.
PenguinPower had an incredibly town entrance, which was natural; there was absolutely nothing artificial or fake in his opening. This earned him the spot as my penultimate townread. Since then, there has been a perfect blend of being lighthearted and scumhunting; he's neither fluff posted nor been super serious. That is exactly what I would expect of him as town. Pending some major change, my townread there is never shifting its strength.
This still holds. I am quite positive you have been scumhunting and you yourself know that to be true. If you want me to point out the more 'lighthearted' content, I can.
Except this game, just invert it; PenguinPower's entrance this game was incredibly stilted. His posting this game has been entirely super-serious; he is altogether missing the lighthearted aspect. His focus has been too much on mechanics and not enough on punhunting. Add in that the role he claimed is literally a pun role, and he is a solid punread.

Pine:
I described the threefold reasons for this read briefly before.
In post 525, Punreader wrote:Pine, the short version is that this is Pine transparently being a punfuck. I am intimately familiar with his meta as both alignments and I guarantee you his contribution this game is him as pun. I can cite multiple behavioral tells to this effect, from what content he is giving, what reads he has given, to the ways he has given it and I will do precisely that in the full version. He had no clue he was playing with
me
, so he didn't properly hide his tells that give him away to me.
The way Pine gave his content was in his posting gimmick. Pine was giving his reads through the "hey Errant got really drunk and slipped in discord..." method. The mod may have told him to stop, but without the mod intervening there, he would have continued to use that gimmick for the whole game.

I can cite multiple references to this, but most famously would in fact be Civilization, something Nahdia should be all too aware of. Pine uses gimmicks to mask his pun content, as a way of hiding in plain sight. They have served him well in the past, acting as a way to engage others in an entertaining manner but also lead to them underestimating him.

Prior to the gimmick, which brings me to the first point, Pine was contributing nothing. This was part of where the punread originated. Pine willingly replaced into the game. What did he do after replacing in? Nothing. Pine replaced in at , page 7, on June 5th.
Pine's first content was , a singular line on PenguinPower echoing thread consensus (more on that when we get to point two), but his first full contribution is , page 19, on June 9th.

He has given no reasons for his reads. (The gimmick also helps to serve mask a lack of reasons.) And he has given reads on only a small fraction of the players in the game. And he has done nothing since choosing to replace in. I know Pine, and while he may adamantly deny it, as pun he is a lurker, both in the sense of not posting often and actively lurking a fair amount of the time he posts.

Were he town, he would have upon replacing in done his absolute best to give content in spite of having not read the game. Pine replacing in as town needs not have read the whole game to contribute opinions, but the Pine of this game did nothing...except for, when he did go with his gimmicky reads, defend the players in the game most likely to be pun.

Why is that condemning?

Because Pine is the strongest anti-busser pun player on the site. He will distance. He'll even vote a punbuddy. He might 'bus' in the sense that he'll pine after a punbuddy who makes sense to push but given the slightest excuse he'll abort it if he sees an opportunity to let the punbuddy live. And he sees opportunities even where by all rights none
should
be. By that I mean he sees a chance to abort a bus where other players insist to continue one.

This is particularly pertinent given PenguinPower. If you assume PenguinPower is pun, then is perfect distancing. Given the first opportunity, . And his other noteworthy townread? . The two players in the game aside from Pine, most likely to be pun, and Pine townreads them.

His approach this game has been pun. His content this game has been pun. This is, 100% guaranteed to be his pungame. He would never have played this way if he had known I was in the game, but since he was unaware of my presence, he thought that this strategy would go unnoticed.
Here I go into extensive detail about the bottom half of my reads, wherein you can see my punreads. In particular, I write multiple paragraphs outlining precisely why I feel Pine and PenguinPower in particular are pun.
In post 680, Punreader wrote:
In post 672, Pine wrote:Protected from people below them, kills people ranked higher. That screams “self-aligned” to me.

I’m not opposed to leashing it.
That role sure WOULD be perfect for 3p, but unfortunately for your attempted narrative, it is not the role I claimed.
Pine was misrepresenting the nature of the role I claimed, which if left unchallenged would have led to support of the 3p narrative, allowing him to get away with diverting discussion away from punhunting and onto mechanics.
In post 703, Punreader wrote:
In post 567, Shoshin wrote:
In post 552, Punreader wrote:Vaxkiller: Vaxkiller also has gone on a rollercoaster in my reads, from a six to a four before I settled on five. To some extent, he Vaxes me; I don't have a reliable way of reading his contribution. However, some of his pushes, while containing some...questionable...reasoning, look like they are genuinely going in the right direction. Not a killer-strong read, but enough that I want to keep him in the game longer.
This "rollercoaster from a six to a four to a five" feels fake.
Do you want me to do a Post By Post Analysis of Vaxkiller to prove what I mean? I kid you not, I can and will do it to show
precisely
why he has gone up and down and all around on my reads list.
In post 706, Punreader wrote:
In post 631, Vaxkiller wrote:
In post 567, Shoshin wrote:
In post 552, Punreader wrote:Vaxkiller: Vaxkiller also has gone on a rollercoaster in my reads, from a six to a four before I settled on five. To some extent, he Vaxes me; I don't have a reliable way of reading his contribution. However, some of his pushes, while containing some...questionable...reasoning, look like they are genuinely going in the right direction. Not a killer-strong read, but enough that I want to keep him in the game longer.
This "rollercoaster from a six to a four to a five" feels fake.
Workin my way backwards, but yeah this confuses me as well. I'm a roller coaster but i Vex him, I push some, but something i do are questionable.. I look genuine, but not a strong read. I mean it dont get more wishy washy than that.
Vaxkiller, I realize English is not your first language, but perhaps you should look up the idiomatic expression like a roller coaster.

"Wishy-washy" is
precisely the definition of the expression
.
Yes you have gone up, yes you have gone down. Yes, you have things I like, yes you have things I don't like. That is precisely what I said my read on you was: uncertain, varying, constantly changing and shifting.
In post 568, Shoshin wrote:I also don't like how Pun's rankings -- 10, 8, 8, 8, 6, 6, 6, 5, 5, 5, 5, 4, 4, 3, 2, 2, 0 -- don't match up to the actual rankings -- 10, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 6, 5, 5, 4, 4, 3, 2, 1, 0, 0, 0 -- seems like a very unnatural way to think about the game if you're actually trying to sort reads into a meaningful rankings list.
Your mistake is in thinking it's a
rankings
list.

It is not.

It is a
reads
list. Strongest town, strong town, weak town, various shades of null, potential pun, slight pun, pun, STRONG pun, approximately.

Read it again with that understanding and you will have a much better handling on where I am coming from.
In post 554, Srceenplay wrote:
In post 552, Punreader wrote:Screenplay: Screenplay's contribution this game on the other hand have been somewhat indicative of pun. He is also fairly lackluster, but the difference is I have the experience with him to know that if he were town he shouldn't be. None of his contributions in this game have been even remotely endearing, and yet I've seen plenty of content sending up red flags, as early as 106. 108 was hollow as well, with no purpose behind it. His reads such as in 177 are opposite what they should be, and he is someone who I respect as a punhunter. Being on vacation feels like more of an excuse than anything else; he is posting plenty, he is reading everything (both of these are self-evident if you look at his iso), and yet in spite of this he is doing virtually nothing.
I’m not sure who you are but this is bullshit. You have went way down on my list.
If it were bullshit as you say, then you'd be able to explain why it was bullshit. You're not as incompetent/lackluster as you are pretending to be.
In post 555, Nahdia wrote:I think their being stilted is pretty well excused by there being no votes. I think their progression towards and the way they claimed came off as town.
I very strongly do not think a lack of votes justifies being stilted. It is an excuse for slacking off, nothing more, especially given that the mod announced from the onset a willingness to track the votes even though they hold no weight. Check . That is Errantparabola's first votecount; the precedence for voting had already been established.

PenguinPower's complaint . Check the timestamps as well. Errantparabola's post 100 has no edit mark. That means it was not edited at a later date. That means it was made on Monday, June 4th; PenguinPower's post complaining was on Wednesday, June 6th. The moderator was
already providing a service that PenguinPower was complaining about a lack of
. His complaint was thus an excuse. Nothing more; the stilted nature of his entrance cannot be reasonably explained by it.

Furthermore, the progression of his claim is the opposite of town. He didn't immediately counter my claim. It was only when players began to show suspicion of his contributions to the game that he provided his claim. When that claim proved to make things worse rather than better, he fullclaimed. He knew he was getting in trouble, and was hoping the truth would make him look better.

This was one of the contributing factors in my decision to fullclaim. PenguinPower's claim progression was meant to protect him from being voted off N1...and if I didn't realclaim, he'd have gotten away with it because people like you were buying it.
Here I respond to the people who responded to where I explain my reads. I offer to show in greater detail, a post by post take on Vaxkiller as to why my read there has shifted so much. I clarify that I am not producing rankings lists, but READS lists. I then go on the offensive, both by pressuring Screenplay, and by outlining why PenguinPower is pun.
In post 707, Punreader wrote:
In post 662, Chara wrote:i want to say Pine is scum, but i'm finding it difficult to rationalize what scum Pine's plan is this game, at all.
I already outlined it. Pine's team this game has some reasonable distancing, but is largely playing the same game: lackluster posting, lurking, and not contributing much. Giving the bare minimum to pass by, not drawing attention. Letting the active posters duke it out in town V town fighting, and subtly supporting this from the background. Focusing on mechanics talk rather than punhunting, for cheap towncred while avoiding giving hard stances that are difficult to back out of.

Is this an original plan? Why no, no it isn't. Is it a "boring" plan? Why yes, yes it is; it is thoroughly uninspired. Why doesn't that disqualify it from being Pine's plan? Because Pine is incredibly pragmatic and opportunistic. If he sees an opening to use a strategy, it doesn't matter how boring/unoriginal it is. He'll use it anyway because a plan which is boring yet practical is a more surefire way to win the game. He doesn't need to make flashy maneuvers. Flashy maneuvers are Pine's desperation moves, when he is backed into a corner.

The most unorthodox part of Pine's pun stratagem lies in his nightkills, something we haven't witnessed yet. His dayplay is not something very creative as he has no need to shift gears from the plan he knows will work, until something (like a player who is on an alt that secretly has loads of experience with him he was unaware of) throws a wrench in the plan. And he doesn't even enact that until the last possible moment; if he thinks he can salvage his original plan, at every opportunity, he will.

I can cite Turn of Camn as the most fresh example of this; at every point he was adamantly against altering the plan to account for Ellibereth, until he was given no choice. You were there so you should know precisely what I am talking about. Pine's play is his textbook punplay this game. He hasn't shifted gears yet because he still holds hope his plan will work, so it's still on display for all to see.
Here I explain what Pine's pungame is, and why his plan this game is it.
In post 708, Punreader wrote:
In post 673, Dunnstral wrote:Pine is scummy on this page
Immensely so, and it is proof of the concept I am referring to.

He is shifting focus away from punhunting, and onto theory discussion. Theory discussion has the benefit of looking town and can offer him immediate towncred, while also distracting the town because theory discussion bears no ACTUAL alignment relevance.
Here I bring up by proxy examples of the behavior I am citing from Pine which are his pungame, and explaining why they are indicative of him being pun.
In post 709, Punreader wrote:
In post 700, PenguinPower wrote:I'm certain that he half claimed, then admitted to lying about his claim, then added a N1 modifier after being asked to vig me.
This is a fine narrative but one which fails to live up to reality.
This was a proxy-callout of the punteam. Pine, TehBrawlGuy, and PenguinPower have all taken similar stances on the nature of my role, as if there were a discussion behind closed doors.

Since I know that's not a neighborhood with daychat, there's only one option that comes to mind.
In post 712, Punreader wrote:
In post 711, Punreader wrote:
In post 705, Srceenplay wrote:
In post 703, Punreader wrote:If it were bullshit as you say, then you'd be able to explain why it was bullshit. You're not as incompetent/lackluster as you are pretending to be.
That’s bull shit as well because you would know that I am incompetent at explaining.
No, you claim you are but you're not. You explain things better than you are pretending. Furthermore, you actually
try
to explain things. You don't leave things as empty statements; you still explain in spite of the "incompetence" at explaining.

I know this in part because I have a similar perspective as pun; I underestimate my own competency as town and pretend I am a worse town player than I actually am, and
this
is what I am saying you are doing. You are stating you are incompetent when I know for a fact you are not actually that incompetent. You likely have a self-perception you're not that incompetent, and thus as pun you "mute" your own competency.

Perhaps I am not explaining this as well as I should, but I feel my message gets across. There is a disconnect between the level of skill I have witnessed from you when you've been town, and the level of skill you are displaying in this game. That disconnect most likely originates from a perception of "I'm not a good town player, so I need to pretend I'm not a good player", leading to you as pun being less competent than you should be.
Another way of stating this:
I do not believe you're lying about thinking it's bullshit.
I do not believe you
think
you're lying about being incompetent.
I believe you fully
think
that you're incompetent as town.
But I believe that perception is flawed, and that you're
not actually incompetent as town in spite of believing you're incompetent as town
.
And
due to this flawed perception, as pun you act incompetently
.
Which introduces the disconnect.
Here I engage Screenplay and go into greater detail as to why I am punreading him.
In post 729, Punreader wrote:
In post 724, Nahdia wrote:i feel like scum is lurking pretty hard rn.
Then you should rate Pine 0 and give a low rating to Screenplay.
Here I directly call Pine and Screenplay lurkers, as the most blatant examples.
That's the most important takeaways from my content.
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Post Post #732 (isolation #31) » Tue Jun 12, 2018 4:09 pm

Post by Punreader »

And the coup de grâce,
Winning the game potentially as early as D2The plan is simple.
  1. Universally vote Pine a 0 to eliminate him.
  2. Universally vote PenguinPower a 0 to eliminate him.
  3. Rate the pool of players I am to vig fairly low: TehBrawlGuy, Screenplay, and ReubenWasFine gets the pool of 3 players necessary.
  4. If I can vig N1, I shoot one of the 3. If it hits scum, we're down three pun.
  5. And on D2, we lynch the fourth and final pun.
No need for a spoiler tag because this one is short enough to not warrant one.

If you wish to see why Pine and PenguinPower are pun, then it is available in .
The VAST majority of my content, literally over 50% of it, is outlining the precise reasons why PenguinPower and Pine are pun.
Screenplay also takes up a reasonable amount of that time as well.
The one read I have failed to explain which I acknowledge I need to is TehBrawlGuy.
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Post Post #733 (isolation #32) » Tue Jun 12, 2018 4:18 pm

Post by Punreader »

I'd additionally like to point out:
In post 710, Pine wrote:Sup friend.

Still self-immolating I see.

You still suck at reading me.
Pine has a long history of a particular tactic.
When Pine has any sort of "oh fuck" realization, his response to this is to do
exactly this
and present a nonchalant response in an attempted to appear unfazed by the outcome. It's his first self-defense mechanism to being caught red-handed.
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Post Post #740 (isolation #33) » Tue Jun 12, 2018 5:53 pm

Post by Punreader »

In post 738, Pine wrote:
In post 733, Punreader wrote:I'd additionally like to point out:
In post 710, Pine wrote:Sup friend.

Still self-immolating I see.

You still suck at reading me.
Pine has a long history of a particular tactic.
When Pine has any sort of "oh fuck" realization, his response to this is to do
exactly this
and present a nonchalant response in an attempted to appear unfazed by the outcome. It's his first self-defense mechanism to being caught red-handed.
You're quite right! It is a favored tactic. I like it because it mirrors when I am actually unfazed.
The problem with that is you aren't actually unfazed as town, even when you know the accusation to be wrong. You get emotional and react negatively to what you see as being bullshit.

This is actually the inverse problem of Screenplay: overestimating how calm you'd be as town.

You are not nearly this serene as town.
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Post Post #781 (isolation #34) » Wed Jun 13, 2018 11:26 am

Post by Punreader »

In post 745, TehBrawlGuy wrote:Pun, I know you scumread me, but I s2g if you shoot me tonight after I reminded you you can shoot... It would be hilarious, true, but also I would hate you.
Actually, that was my plan until just now. I'll have to shoot someone else now.
In post 745, TehBrawlGuy wrote:I get that apparently the thread has something against mechanics, but holy shit you guys, there's one major difference between this and a standard game. How hard is it to keep track of that
one thing
?
This would be one of the reasons that the players using that one mechanic as an excuse to do nothing (namely, PenguinPower and Pine) are pun.

This game is not nearly as different from a normal game of mafia as they are pretending it to be. Their excuses for not generating content due to said mechanic are therefore nothing more than that: just excuses to not be held accountable for content early in the game. This would also be one of the reasons I consider you a punbuddy, since by your own logic, you should recognize that this:
In post 748, TehBrawlGuy wrote:I really don't get Pine being pretty low on rankings. I weakly townread him. Most of his content is NAI and what there is seems to me like a townie who's just chilling waiting for the game to progress.
...Is an invalid reason to townread him. There is no justification for chilling because
the game is already in progress
.

Pretending the game isn't in progress is a pun-oriented narrative because
as you yourself note
, there is only one difference between this game and a normal game. So players in this game should be...treating it as if it were a normal game; the players who thus are stating they aren't doing so are automatically more suspicious.
In post 742, the worst wrote:I trust pun's claim but this play is bad
lean town on pine tentatively
Serious question.
Have you
played
with Pine before?
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Post Post #782 (isolation #35) » Wed Jun 13, 2018 11:28 am

Post by Punreader »

In post 771, Srceenplay wrote:Can I not like and like pun at the same time?
Only if in doing so your read on me is a rollercoaster. :wink:
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Post Post #783 (isolation #36) » Wed Jun 13, 2018 11:29 am

Post by Punreader »

In post 777, the worst wrote:agree TBG wrt Pine. I'm basically half coasting this phase as well so hard to h8
The difference is you're half-coasting but still contributing.

Pine's all coast and no contributing.
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Post Post #786 (isolation #37) » Wed Jun 13, 2018 1:04 pm

Post by Punreader »

In post 784, the worst wrote:and he's very clearly not pushing a malicious agenda.
Wrong. Pushing for the votes of me as a zero combined with third party talk/serial killer discussion shows some level of malice. Then, refusing to give stances on players in addition to the zero-vote-push/mechanics-talk shows the agenda.
In post 784, the worst wrote:BTW do you think it's likely I've correctly identified who you are?
If you had then you'd be sheeping me in regards to Pine.
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Post Post #795 (isolation #38) » Wed Jun 13, 2018 2:04 pm

Post by Punreader »

In post 794, TehBrawlGuy wrote:I think you draw a couple of wrong conclusions here. First off, although there's only one mechanical change, that doesn't mean the ramifications of it on the gamestate are simple. It means, among other things, that it's a lot harder to really be engaged in D1 because there aren't traditional wagons/voting.
And yet the moderator is still tracking votes as if there were traditional wagons/voting. If the moderator were not providing that service, this would be more of a valid point, but he
is
.

Additionally, the addition of the rating mechanic actually gives something
better
than traditional wagons/voting.

Players can create rankings lists, should they so choose, which give data points on multiple players rather than just one.
In post 794, TehBrawlGuy wrote:Second off, you assume that I wouldn't give this a pass on a normal D1 anyway. You are correct that by my logic, I think it's AntiTown to not contribute, but I don't think it's necessarily ProScum.

Basically, I don't think Pine's pretending the game's not in progress. I think he's chilling, waiting for more progress before he feels like contributing
The problem with this is that Pine
replaced into
this game. He was not an original player that started with it. As a town replacement, what is your natural inclination? To do nothing?

You replaced into the game. That means that you had to care enough about the game before you were even a player that you wanted to be in it as a player. Because you had that level of investment, because you wanted to be a player in the game, that means once you come into the game, you are going to immediately try to further your wincon.

Pine did not further the town's wincon, in spite of replacing into the game. Where did the energy of being a replacement go? Where did his desire to do something disappear to? If he cared enough about the game before replacing in to offer a replacement, why once he is in the game did he
not
care, or at least is pretending not to care?

It is because he is pun and doing this minimalistic contribution is furthering the pun wincon.
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Post Post #870 (isolation #39) » Wed Jun 20, 2018 8:01 pm

Post by Punreader »

Punreader (10)
Chara (10)
Taly (10)
Dunnstral (9)
ActionDan/Nahdia (8)
Shoshin (7)
MariaR (6)
Espeonage (6)
the worst (5)
Fire Assassin (5)
DeasVail (4)
Vaxkiller (4)
NicoRobin (3)
ReubenWasFine/Lovebird (2)
Srceenplay (1)
TehBrawlGuy (0)
PenguinPower (0)
Pine/TwoInAMillion (0)

I shot Pine.
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Post Post #1295 (isolation #40) » Sun Jun 24, 2018 12:27 pm

Post by Punreader »

Apologies for taking so long.
I am here now, and catching up.
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Post Post #1297 (isolation #41) » Sun Jun 24, 2018 12:50 pm

Post by Punreader »

In post 876, Espeonage wrote:
In post 872, TehBrawlGuy wrote:Because I'm a nerd about data, here's a good way to look at mine. You can sort by player#, ranking#, and order I assigned the rankings. Look at my rankings!
I realize now that I fucked up and ranked espe/dunn against each other for their roles instead of vax/fire, so whoops.
Dunn won the bet anyway.
MOD:
You deleted it from the original post, but the data can still be accessed from quotes of the post.
In post 871, the worst wrote:Is it worth protectives or roleblockers claiming actions here? I'd be surprised if Pine was the scum NK too.
Pardon me for seeming egotistical, but I feel the most likely answer is simply that the pun sent a player they thought was ranked below me to nightkill me, yet it failed because the rankings were not as they thought.

This is because I made an error in my roleclaim.

I thought that 1s and 0s I
gave out
held double weight.
During the night, Errantparabola corrected me and told me I had it backwards; 1s and 0s I
am given
hold double weight. In short, my ranking is lower than they were expecting it to be.
In post 893, Vaxkiller wrote:WHY THE FUCK WOULD YOU SHOOT PINE.
Why wouldn't I?

Pine was my strongest punread, I promised I wouldn't shoot TehBrawlGuy, and the pun were most likely expecting me to shoot PenguinPower so I made a shot they would not as reasonably anticipate me having made.
In post 893, Vaxkiller wrote:HOW did you shoot pine? You claiming vig?
My ranking is higher than his, apparently. You also apparently need to read my posts given you would not be asking this had you done so.
In post 900, Vaxkiller wrote:Cmon, were people scum reading pine yesterday?
Considering I wrote what I felt was a fairly strong case on Pine, this should not surprise you.
In post 903, the worst wrote:I believe pine has sound experience in reading pun's main.
Plenty of experience in
reading
my slot, yes; dismal experience in reading my slot
correctly
. He has a LONG track record of making the wrong call on me. (To be fair, it is apparently mutual given that I was quite confident I was shooting pun.)
In post 903, the worst wrote: furthermore I don't think pun made any effort to engage with pine d1. if memory serves they talked around his responses and told me I should sheep them.
Your memory is flawed.
Spoiler: Pine content
In post 525, Punreader wrote:
In post 467, DeasVail wrote:Hi Punreader. This reads list was pretty similar to where I was at that point in the game. Main exceptions are Pine being so low. So I'd be pretty interested in explanations of those.
Pine, the short version is that this is Pine transparently being a punfuck. I am intimately familiar with his meta as both alignments and I guarantee you his contribution this game is him as pun. I can cite multiple behavioral tells to this effect, from what content he is giving, what reads he has given, to the ways he has given it and I will do precisely that in the full version. He had no clue he was playing with
me
, so he didn't properly hide his tells that give him away to me.
In post 552, Punreader wrote:
In post 534, Punreader wrote:Starting point:
In post 370, Punreader wrote:
ZOMBIFY THESE ZEROES:

Pine/TwoInAMillion
Pine:
I described the threefold reasons for this read briefly before.
In post 525, Punreader wrote:Pine, the short version is that this is Pine transparently being a punfuck. I am intimately familiar with his meta as both alignments and I guarantee you his contribution this game is him as pun. I can cite multiple behavioral tells to this effect, from what content he is giving, what reads he has given, to the ways he has given it and I will do precisely that in the full version. He had no clue he was playing with
me
, so he didn't properly hide his tells that give him away to me.
The way Pine gave his content was in his posting gimmick. Pine was giving his reads through the "hey Errant got really drunk and slipped in discord..." method. The mod may have told him to stop, but without the mod intervening there, he would have continued to use that gimmick for the whole game.

I can cite multiple references to this, but most famously would in fact be Civilization, something Nahdia should be all too aware of. Pine uses gimmicks to mask his pun content, as a way of hiding in plain sight. They have served him well in the past, acting as a way to engage others in an entertaining manner but also lead to them underestimating him.

Prior to the gimmick, which brings me to the first point, Pine was contributing nothing. This was part of where the punread originated. Pine willingly replaced into the game. What did he do after replacing in? Nothing. Pine replaced in at , page 7, on June 5th.
Pine's first content was , a singular line on PenguinPower echoing thread consensus (more on that when we get to point two), but his first full contribution is , page 19, on June 9th.

He has given no reasons for his reads. (The gimmick also helps to serve mask a lack of reasons.) And he has given reads on only a small fraction of the players in the game. And he has done nothing since choosing to replace in. I know Pine, and while he may adamantly deny it, as pun he is a lurker, both in the sense of not posting often and actively lurking a fair amount of the time he posts.

Were he town, he would have upon replacing in done his absolute best to give content in spite of having not read the game. Pine replacing in as town needs not have read the whole game to contribute opinions, but the Pine of this game did nothing...except for, when he did go with his gimmicky reads, defend the players in the game most likely to be pun.

Why is that condemning?

Because Pine is the strongest anti-busser pun player on the site. He will distance. He'll even vote a punbuddy. He might 'bus' in the sense that he'll pine after a punbuddy who makes sense to push but given the slightest excuse he'll abort it if he sees an opportunity to let the punbuddy live. And he sees opportunities even where by all rights none
should
be. By that I mean he sees a chance to abort a bus where other players insist to continue one.

This is particularly pertinent given PenguinPower. If you assume PenguinPower is pun, then is perfect distancing. Given the first opportunity, . And his other noteworthy townread? . The two players in the game aside from Pine, most likely to be pun, and Pine townreads them.

His approach this game has been pun. His content this game has been pun. This is, 100% guaranteed to be his pungame. He would never have played this way if he had known I was in the game, but since he was unaware of my presence, he thought that this strategy would go unnoticed.
In post 707, Punreader wrote:
In post 662, Chara wrote:i want to say Pine is scum, but i'm finding it difficult to rationalize what scum Pine's plan is this game, at all.
I already outlined it. Pine's team this game has some reasonable distancing, but is largely playing the same game: lackluster posting, lurking, and not contributing much. Giving the bare minimum to pass by, not drawing attention. Letting the active posters duke it out in town V town fighting, and subtly supporting this from the background. Focusing on mechanics talk rather than punhunting, for cheap towncred while avoiding giving hard stances that are difficult to back out of.

Is this an original plan? Why no, no it isn't. Is it a "boring" plan? Why yes, yes it is; it is thoroughly uninspired. Why doesn't that disqualify it from being Pine's plan? Because Pine is incredibly pragmatic and opportunistic. If he sees an opening to use a strategy, it doesn't matter how boring/unoriginal it is. He'll use it anyway because a plan which is boring yet practical is a more surefire way to win the game. He doesn't need to make flashy maneuvers. Flashy maneuvers are Pine's desperation moves, when he is backed into a corner.

The most unorthodox part of Pine's pun stratagem lies in his nightkills, something we haven't witnessed yet. His dayplay is not something very creative as he has no need to shift gears from the plan he knows will work, until something (like a player who is on an alt that secretly has loads of experience with him he was unaware of) throws a wrench in the plan. And he doesn't even enact that until the last possible moment; if he thinks he can salvage his original plan, at every opportunity, he will.

I can cite Turn of Camn as the most fresh example of this; at every point he was adamantly against altering the plan to account for Ellibereth, until he was given no choice. You were there so you should know precisely what I am talking about. Pine's play is his textbook punplay this game. He hasn't shifted gears yet because he still holds hope his plan will work, so it's still on display for all to see.
In post 708, Punreader wrote:
In post 673, Dunnstral wrote:Pine is scummy on this page
Immensely so, and it is proof of the concept I am referring to.

He is shifting focus away from punhunting, and onto theory discussion. Theory discussion has the benefit of looking town and can offer him immediate towncred, while also distracting the town because theory discussion bears no ACTUAL alignment relevance.
In post 721, Punreader wrote:
In post 717, Vaxkiller wrote:Your usually more opinionated... but i ... have missed some.
Yes, precisely. Pine as town is usually more opinionated. He came in to this game as a replacement (displaying a clear desire to PLAY the game because he wouldn't have offered to replace in otherwise), and yet in spite of that you can count the number of stances he's taken on a single hand.

There is good reason he is my strongest punread.
In post 732, Punreader wrote:And the coup de grâce,
Winning the game potentially as early as D2The plan is simple.
  1. Universally vote Pine a 0 to eliminate him.
  2. Universally vote PenguinPower a 0 to eliminate him.
  3. Rate the pool of players I am to vig fairly low: TehBrawlGuy, Screenplay, and ReubenWasFine gets the pool of 3 players necessary.
  4. If I can vig N1, I shoot one of the 3. If it hits scum, we're down three pun.
  5. And on D2, we lynch the fourth and final pun.
No need for a spoiler tag because this one is short enough to not warrant one.

If you wish to see why Pine and PenguinPower are pun, then it is available in .
The VAST majority of my content, literally over 50% of it, is outlining the precise reasons why PenguinPower and Pine are pun.
Screenplay also takes up a reasonable amount of that time as well.
The one read I have failed to explain which I acknowledge I need to is TehBrawlGuy.
In post 733, Punreader wrote:I'd additionally like to point out:
In post 710, Pine wrote:Sup friend.

Still self-immolating I see.

You still suck at reading me.
Pine has a long history of a particular tactic. When Pine has any sort of "oh fuck" realization, his response to this is to do
exactly this
and present a nonchalant response in an attempted to appear unfazed by the outcome. It's his first self-defense mechanism to being caught red-handed.
In post 740, Punreader wrote:
In post 738, Pine wrote:
In post 733, Punreader wrote:I'd additionally like to point out:
In post 710, Pine wrote:Sup friend.

Still self-immolating I see.

You still suck at reading me.
Pine has a long history of a particular tactic. When Pine has any sort of "oh fuck" realization, his response to this is to do
exactly this
and present a nonchalant response in an attempted to appear unfazed by the outcome. It's his first self-defense mechanism to being caught red-handed.
You're quite right! It is a favored tactic. I like it because it mirrors when I am actually unfazed.
The problem with that is you aren't actually unfazed as town, even when you know the accusation to be wrong. You get emotional and react negatively to what you see as being bullshit.

This is actually the inverse problem of Screenplay: overestimating how calm you'd be as town.

You are not nearly this serene as town.
In post 781, Punreader wrote:
In post 745, TehBrawlGuy wrote:I get that apparently the thread has something against mechanics, but holy shit you guys, there's one major difference between this and a standard game. How hard is it to keep track of that
one thing
?
This would be one of the reasons that the players using that one mechanic as an excuse to do nothing (namely, PenguinPower and Pine) are pun.

This game is not nearly as different from a normal game of mafia as they are pretending it to be. Their excuses for not generating content due to said mechanic are therefore nothing more than that: just excuses to not be held accountable for content early in the game. This would also be one of the reasons I consider you a punbuddy, since by your own logic, you should recognize that this:
In post 748, TehBrawlGuy wrote:I really don't get Pine being pretty low on rankings. I weakly townread him. Most of his content is NAI and what there is seems to me like a townie who's just chilling waiting for the game to progress.
...Is an invalid reason to townread him. There is no justification for chilling because
the game is already in progress
.

Pretending the game isn't in progress is a pun-oriented narrative because
as you yourself note
, there is only one difference between this game and a normal game. So players in this game should be...treating it as if it were a normal game; the players who thus are stating they aren't doing so are automatically more suspicious.
In post 742, the worst wrote:I trust pun's claim but this play is bad
lean town on pine tentatively
Serious question.
Have you
played
with Pine before?
In post 783, Punreader wrote:
In post 777, the worst wrote:agree TBG wrt Pine. I'm basically half coasting this phase as well so hard to h8
The difference is you're half-coasting but still contributing.

Pine's all coast and no contributing.
In post 786, Punreader wrote:
In post 784, the worst wrote:and he's very clearly not pushing a malicious agenda.
Wrong. Pushing for the votes of me as a zero combined with third party talk/serial killer discussion shows some level of malice. Then, refusing to give stances on players in addition to the zero-vote-push/mechanics-talk shows the agenda.
In post 784, the worst wrote:BTW do you think it's likely I've correctly identified who you are?
If you had then you'd be sheeping me in regards to Pine.
In post 795, Punreader wrote:
In post 794, TehBrawlGuy wrote:Second off, you assume that I wouldn't give this a pass on a normal D1 anyway. You are correct that by my logic, I think it's AntiTown to not contribute, but I don't think it's necessarily ProScum.

Basically, I don't think Pine's pretending the game's not in progress. I think he's chilling, waiting for more progress before he feels like contributing
The problem with this is that Pine
replaced into
this game. He was not an original player that started with it. As a town replacement, what is your natural inclination? To do nothing?

You replaced into the game. That means that you had to care enough about the game before you were even a player that you wanted to be in it as a player. Because you had that level of investment, because you wanted to be a player in the game, that means once you come into the game, you are going to immediately try to further your wincon.

Pine did not further the town's wincon, in spite of replacing into the game. Where did the energy of being a replacement go? Where did his desire to do something disappear to? If he cared enough about the game before replacing in to offer a replacement, why once he is in the game did he
not
care, or at least is pretending not to care?

It is because he is pun and doing this minimalistic contribution is furthering the pun wincon.
These are mostly also found in here:
In post 730, Punreader wrote:
Spoiler: Understanding of my Stances
In post 303, Punreader wrote:Free preview:
In post 285, TehBrawlGuy wrote:PP's last post makes me feel that PP v Taly is not TvT. Dunno which one is the Scum yet, though. I'll catch that on re-read.
It is far from a surefire thing given I have limited experience with both players, but from what I know this is fairly standard Taly play and not what I'd expect from PenguinPower if he were town. This would not be something I'd state with any level of true confidence, but it has enough where I'll back your sentiment.
This still holds. In the PenguinPower-Taly exchange, PenguinPower plays exactly to what I'd expect of his punplay, and Taly comes out looking incredibly town from the fight.
In post 370, Punreader wrote:
TOWNIE TENS:

Chara

EAGER EIGHTS:

Taly
Dunnstral
ActionDan

SOLID SIXES:

Shoshin
MariaR
Espeonage

FINICKY FIVES:

the worst
Fire Assassin
DeasVail
Vaxkiller

UNFORTUNATE FOURS:

NicoRobin
ReubenWasFine

IN-BETWEEN THREES:

Srceenplay

TERRIBLE TWOS:

TehBrawlGuy
PenguinPower

ZOMBIFY THESE ZEROES:

Pine/TwoInAMillion
Here I post my readslist, and deliver the promise that reasons will come in 24 hours. (As it turned out, I finished 23 hours later.)
In post 534, Punreader wrote:Since then, PenguinPower has become a zero, but I will detail that later; otherwise, this remains unchanged and is my reference point.

I'll begin by stating, most of my reads come from meta combined with motivations: what I expect to see as either alignment. I can do this for almost the entire playerlist to some extent, but some of these reads are going to have a stronger base than others. With that established...

Chara:
My Chara townread comes primarily from having many games' experience with it. I hesitate to Chare my past experience (as my meta comes from first-hand exposure, linking to examples would be traceable to my main), but the Chararal Chist of it is that Chara always Chows a strong aptitude for forwarding a town wincon. (Okay I'll stop that now.) When Chara is town, it demonstrates this by providing a transparent thought process where its reasoning can be traced, step by step, from beginning to end. This trait, in of itself, isn't town, but what amplifies it is the consistency and the delivery of it. It's not only the process itself, but the content therein. While Chara is not an elite punhunter, Chara's process still provides reasonable town positions to hold.

This is not something Chara can fake convincingly. You can always tell Chara is town by it demonstrating the genuine attempt to game solve, furthering the town wincon in the process. In spite of Chara not being an elite punhunter, in its own way, you can still hold a certain burden of proficiency to it; if Chara's stances don't seem reasonable positions to hold, then it could be pun. However, Chara's content this game
does
show reasonable stances, with reasonable justifications. I follow the process, even if I don't fully agree with it. I agree with more than I don't, and understand how Chara is getting from point A to point B. All of this strongly suggests town.

Taly:
If you Tally his posts, it should be immediately obvious why I hold this read. He has the highest post count in this game by far, and in those posts, constantly, neverending, there is content where he explains his reads, justifies his stances, asks questions, and engages players. Not in of itself enough to be town because tryhard pun is a thing, but when you look at the nature of the content it becomes clear he isn't just doing "busywork". His content builds off of itself; he follows through on the content, and when his stances change, there is a logical progression in the shift.

When he presents posts, he does so without an attempt to force us to wolf it down. This violetly aggressive pushing shows a desire to work with others in a way difficult, but not quite impossible, to fake. He is similar to Chara in this regard, but I don't have the same level of familiarity with him to be as confident on my read here as I do on Chara.

Dunnstral:
I may have been a little hasty in having him this high, but I feel this is his town game off of what little he has provided. Admittedly, he lurks as both alignments but initial signs point to town.

Nahdia/ActionDan:
This read comes from ActionDan, obviously. ActionDan didn't contribute much before leaving the game, but what he did give was enough to make me instantly feel this is his towngame. When ActionDan is town, I expect his reads to be fairly competent, and also to have some level of synchronization with mine. He was suspicious of Screenplay before even I was, and also noted suspicion on TehBrawlGuy well before the thought crossed my mind. Does this mean his reads are right, of course not, but the fact he saw the same slots I see as suspect before I did is an instantly promising sign. His analysis of Espeonage is fairly good as well, and I thought his position on Chara/Deas was indicative of solid, critical thinking of a type difficult to fake as pun.

However, the lack of overall activity and his natural competency as a pun player keep this from being a read I would more strongly Act on. Counterbalancing that, given he was replaced I'd say that isn't Danning at all, so I may be promoting Nahdia's slot.

Shoshin:
Shoshin is one of the players in this game I am least-familiar with, so I can't speak about her with any meta-based experience. However, just off of her play, I felt that her content was indicative of town solving. and are comments that could come from pun, but I lean town on. Many of the directions she's headed have felt like good ones; I've liked the inquiries in posts such as , , , , , , , , , , and . There's good analysis in . However, I'm a little concerned that a great amount of what she has done doesn't appear to have much follow-through to it. This is mitigated by the times I can see it (for instance, the continued Screenplay push), but there are many times where I don't see her evolution in process, keeping me from promoting her. Shoshi's reasonably town, yet not locktown.

MariaR:
I have extensive experience with Maria. I'm not at the point where I can soulread her (not even remotely close), but I still have a reasonable baseline for what she'll be like as town, and initial signs are promising. However, this is not something I can lock in because the best ally in reading her is time we've not had; you never know, something might Mar my Rid there later.

Espeonage:
I don't actually have a good ability to read Espeonage even though I've spied on plenty of his games before. He's a little difficult to pin down; a fair amount of his content
has
made me question him, but he always ninjas his way out by the end. It's mostly the little things which give him this rating; I liked his lighthearted banter seen in such places as , balanced nicely by more serious gamesolving. Many of his prods have felt good, yet this boon is ruined by the conclusions reached from them; his stated reads are, by and large, backwards from what I would expect. Espeonage is reasonably competent, yet all the players I'm suspicious of (Pine, PenguinPower, TehBrawlGuy, Screenplay) are players he's giving passes for whatever reason, even if he had genuine inquiries.

the worst:
Another player I can't reliably read, albeit in part owing to lack of extensive experience. the worst case scenario would be him as pun, but I don't have any reason to suspect he is. He doesn't particularly make me feel town, but lacking a reason to punread him, he may actually be worthy of promotion.

Fire Assassin:
Though I have the experience necessary to meta read Fire Assassin
in theory
, in practice I simply don't know what I'm doing with him and pretending I do would be detrimental. I have no clue what to look for; I have no tells on him; I don't know what indicates he's town or pun. I can tell you overall on his play alone, the content he has produced hasn't been a Sin, but if there is a strong town Fire, I've yet to see it lit. If I had to make a call, it would be town, but I would do so with no confidence whatsoever.

This is the midway point in my reads, and unfortunately I need to take a break to attend to something which came up, so this makes a good stopping point.
Here I give my basic process, outlining that my read on PenguinPower has strengthened from punread to STRONG punread. I lay out the groundwork for the top half of my readslist, which can loosely be thought of as my townreads.
In post 552, Punreader wrote:
DeasVail:
DeasVail is an incredibly talented pun player, and nothing he has done is out of his punrange. In fact, a fair amount of his content is actually the sort I'd expect if he were pun. For the longest time, he was
lower
in my readslist. What actually bumped him up was, in fact, when he gave
his
reads in . His Intervention was an incredible step in the right direction.

Though it's not impossible for him to distance/bus and it's a certainty my reads are far from perfect (and thus, that he could be pun that pushes town players I'm punreading), the significant overlap in reads and his explanation of his process all the same was enough to remove him from the lower half of my reads. Altogether, while he has a permanent Vail preventing me from putting him much higher, he is still someone I'd say is more likely town than not.

Vaxkiller:
Vaxkiller also has gone on a rollercoaster in my reads, from a six to a four before I settled on five. To some extent, he Vaxes me; I don't have a reliable way of reading his contribution. However, some of his pushes, while containing some...questionable...reasoning, look like they are genuinely going in the right direction. Not a killer-strong read, but enough that I want to keep him in the game longer.

NicoRobin:
Nico's not reacting in the way I would expect her to if she were town, but I want to wait longer before committing to this, because she also lurks/flakes plenty as town and this could be one of those times. If she does the thing I am expecting her to do as either alignment, I'll have a better handle on her.

ReubenWasFine:
There isn't much here and I have no game experience with Reuben, but Reuben's contributions to this game have been...lackluster. Not condemning, but certainly not endearing.

Screenplay:
Screenplay's contribution this game on the other hand have been somewhat indicative of pun. He is also fairly lackluster, but the difference is I have the experience with him to know that if he were town he
shouldn't
be. None of his contributions in this game have been even remotely endearing, and yet I've seen plenty of content sending up red flags, as early as . was hollow as well, with no purpose behind it. His reads such as in are opposite what they should be, and he is someone who I respect as a punhunter. Being on vacation feels like more of an excuse than anything else; he is posting plenty, he is reading everything (both of these are self-evident if you look at his iso), and yet in spite of this he is doing virtually nothing.

TehBrawlGuy:
This is another player I don't have much experience with, but his posting has continued to get worse. I'm having trouble explaining this one at the moment, so I'll try to tackle him in a separate post.

PenguinPower:
No need for me to explain my read here. I can simply recycle what I said on him before.
In post 473, Punreader wrote: PenguinPower had an incredibly town entrance, which was natural; there was absolutely nothing artificial or fake in his opening. This earned him the spot as my penultimate townread. Since then, there has been a perfect blend of being lighthearted and scumhunting; he's neither fluff posted nor been super serious. That is exactly what I would expect of him as town. Pending some major change, my townread there is never shifting its strength.
In post 964, Punreader wrote:
In post 892, PenguinPower wrote:I have no feelings on Titus right now. I am very skeptical of people who town read me D1 (outside a very small set of players), especially when they don't provide a reason as to why they town read me when asked.
I provided my reasoning.
In post 473, Punreader wrote:
In post 456, Jingle wrote:I'll bite the bait though, tell me about this PP read.
I already did; you should have paid attention the first time.
In post 294, Punreader wrote:
In post 28, PenguinPower wrote:Yea, but...I'm policy lynching...uh....
Power to you, my friend. I believe you have no place in a penitentiary.
PenguinPower had an incredibly town entrance, which was natural; there was absolutely nothing artificial or fake in his opening. This earned him the spot as my penultimate townread. Since then, there has been a perfect blend of being lighthearted and scumhunting; he's neither fluff posted nor been super serious. That is exactly what I would expect of him as town. Pending some major change, my townread there is never shifting its strength.
This still holds. I am quite positive you have been scumhunting and you yourself know that to be true. If you want me to point out the more 'lighthearted' content, I can.
Except this game, just invert it; PenguinPower's entrance this game was incredibly stilted. His posting this game has been entirely super-serious; he is altogether missing the lighthearted aspect. His focus has been too much on mechanics and not enough on punhunting. Add in that the role he claimed is literally a pun role, and he is a solid punread.

Pine:
I described the threefold reasons for this read briefly before.
In post 525, Punreader wrote:Pine, the short version is that this is Pine transparently being a punfuck. I am intimately familiar with his meta as both alignments and I guarantee you his contribution this game is him as pun. I can cite multiple behavioral tells to this effect, from what content he is giving, what reads he has given, to the ways he has given it and I will do precisely that in the full version. He had no clue he was playing with
me
, so he didn't properly hide his tells that give him away to me.
The way Pine gave his content was in his posting gimmick. Pine was giving his reads through the "hey Errant got really drunk and slipped in discord..." method. The mod may have told him to stop, but without the mod intervening there, he would have continued to use that gimmick for the whole game.

I can cite multiple references to this, but most famously would in fact be Civilization, something Nahdia should be all too aware of. Pine uses gimmicks to mask his pun content, as a way of hiding in plain sight. They have served him well in the past, acting as a way to engage others in an entertaining manner but also lead to them underestimating him.

Prior to the gimmick, which brings me to the first point, Pine was contributing nothing. This was part of where the punread originated. Pine willingly replaced into the game. What did he do after replacing in? Nothing. Pine replaced in at , page 7, on June 5th.
Pine's first content was , a singular line on PenguinPower echoing thread consensus (more on that when we get to point two), but his first full contribution is , page 19, on June 9th.

He has given no reasons for his reads. (The gimmick also helps to serve mask a lack of reasons.) And he has given reads on only a small fraction of the players in the game. And he has done nothing since choosing to replace in. I know Pine, and while he may adamantly deny it, as pun he is a lurker, both in the sense of not posting often and actively lurking a fair amount of the time he posts.

Were he town, he would have upon replacing in done his absolute best to give content in spite of having not read the game. Pine replacing in as town needs not have read the whole game to contribute opinions, but the Pine of this game did nothing...except for, when he did go with his gimmicky reads, defend the players in the game most likely to be pun.

Why is that condemning?

Because Pine is the strongest anti-busser pun player on the site. He will distance. He'll even vote a punbuddy. He might 'bus' in the sense that he'll pine after a punbuddy who makes sense to push but given the slightest excuse he'll abort it if he sees an opportunity to let the punbuddy live. And he sees opportunities even where by all rights none
should
be. By that I mean he sees a chance to abort a bus where other players insist to continue one.

This is particularly pertinent given PenguinPower. If you assume PenguinPower is pun, then is perfect distancing. Given the first opportunity, . And his other noteworthy townread? . The two players in the game aside from Pine, most likely to be pun, and Pine townreads them.

His approach this game has been pun. His content this game has been pun. This is, 100% guaranteed to be his pungame. He would never have played this way if he had known I was in the game, but since he was unaware of my presence, he thought that this strategy would go unnoticed.
Here I go into extensive detail about the bottom half of my reads, wherein you can see my punreads. In particular, I write multiple paragraphs outlining precisely why I feel Pine and PenguinPower in particular are pun.
In post 680, Punreader wrote:
In post 672, Pine wrote:Protected from people below them, kills people ranked higher. That screams “self-aligned” to me.

I’m not opposed to leashing it.
That role sure WOULD be perfect for 3p, but unfortunately for your attempted narrative, it is not the role I claimed.
Pine was misrepresenting the nature of the role I claimed, which if left unchallenged would have led to support of the 3p narrative, allowing him to get away with diverting discussion away from punhunting and onto mechanics.
In post 703, Punreader wrote:
In post 567, Shoshin wrote:
In post 552, Punreader wrote:Vaxkiller: Vaxkiller also has gone on a rollercoaster in my reads, from a six to a four before I settled on five. To some extent, he Vaxes me; I don't have a reliable way of reading his contribution. However, some of his pushes, while containing some...questionable...reasoning, look like they are genuinely going in the right direction. Not a killer-strong read, but enough that I want to keep him in the game longer.
This "rollercoaster from a six to a four to a five" feels fake.
Do you want me to do a Post By Post Analysis of Vaxkiller to prove what I mean? I kid you not, I can and will do it to show
precisely
why he has gone up and down and all around on my reads list.
In post 706, Punreader wrote:
In post 631, Vaxkiller wrote:
In post 567, Shoshin wrote:
In post 552, Punreader wrote:Vaxkiller: Vaxkiller also has gone on a rollercoaster in my reads, from a six to a four before I settled on five. To some extent, he Vaxes me; I don't have a reliable way of reading his contribution. However, some of his pushes, while containing some...questionable...reasoning, look like they are genuinely going in the right direction. Not a killer-strong read, but enough that I want to keep him in the game longer.
This "rollercoaster from a six to a four to a five" feels fake.
Workin my way backwards, but yeah this confuses me as well. I'm a roller coaster but i Vex him, I push some, but something i do are questionable.. I look genuine, but not a strong read. I mean it dont get more wishy washy than that.
Vaxkiller, I realize English is not your first language, but perhaps you should look up the idiomatic expression like a roller coaster.

"Wishy-washy" is
precisely the definition of the expression
.
Yes you have gone up, yes you have gone down. Yes, you have things I like, yes you have things I don't like. That is precisely what I said my read on you was: uncertain, varying, constantly changing and shifting.
In post 568, Shoshin wrote:I also don't like how Pun's rankings -- 10, 8, 8, 8, 6, 6, 6, 5, 5, 5, 5, 4, 4, 3, 2, 2, 0 -- don't match up to the actual rankings -- 10, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 6, 5, 5, 4, 4, 3, 2, 1, 0, 0, 0 -- seems like a very unnatural way to think about the game if you're actually trying to sort reads into a meaningful rankings list.
Your mistake is in thinking it's a
rankings
list.

It is not.

It is a
reads
list. Strongest town, strong town, weak town, various shades of null, potential pun, slight pun, pun, STRONG pun, approximately.

Read it again with that understanding and you will have a much better handling on where I am coming from.
In post 554, Srceenplay wrote:
In post 552, Punreader wrote:Screenplay: Screenplay's contribution this game on the other hand have been somewhat indicative of pun. He is also fairly lackluster, but the difference is I have the experience with him to know that if he were town he shouldn't be. None of his contributions in this game have been even remotely endearing, and yet I've seen plenty of content sending up red flags, as early as 106. 108 was hollow as well, with no purpose behind it. His reads such as in 177 are opposite what they should be, and he is someone who I respect as a punhunter. Being on vacation feels like more of an excuse than anything else; he is posting plenty, he is reading everything (both of these are self-evident if you look at his iso), and yet in spite of this he is doing virtually nothing.
I’m not sure who you are but this is bullshit. You have went way down on my list.
If it were bullshit as you say, then you'd be able to explain why it was bullshit. You're not as incompetent/lackluster as you are pretending to be.
In post 555, Nahdia wrote:I think their being stilted is pretty well excused by there being no votes. I think their progression towards and the way they claimed came off as town.
I very strongly do not think a lack of votes justifies being stilted. It is an excuse for slacking off, nothing more, especially given that the mod announced from the onset a willingness to track the votes even though they hold no weight. Check . That is Errantparabola's first votecount; the precedence for voting had already been established.

PenguinPower's complaint . Check the timestamps as well. Errantparabola's post 100 has no edit mark. That means it was not edited at a later date. That means it was made on Monday, June 4th; PenguinPower's post complaining was on Wednesday, June 6th. The moderator was
already providing a service that PenguinPower was complaining about a lack of
. His complaint was thus an excuse. Nothing more; the stilted nature of his entrance cannot be reasonably explained by it.

Furthermore, the progression of his claim is the opposite of town. He didn't immediately counter my claim. It was only when players began to show suspicion of his contributions to the game that he provided his claim. When that claim proved to make things worse rather than better, he fullclaimed. He knew he was getting in trouble, and was hoping the truth would make him look better.

This was one of the contributing factors in my decision to fullclaim. PenguinPower's claim progression was meant to protect him from being voted off N1...and if I didn't realclaim, he'd have gotten away with it because people like you were buying it.
Here I respond to the people who responded to where I explain my reads. I offer to show in greater detail, a post by post take on Vaxkiller as to why my read there has shifted so much. I clarify that I am not producing rankings lists, but READS lists. I then go on the offensive, both by pressuring Screenplay, and by outlining why PenguinPower is pun.
In post 707, Punreader wrote:
In post 662, Chara wrote:i want to say Pine is scum, but i'm finding it difficult to rationalize what scum Pine's plan is this game, at all.
I already outlined it. Pine's team this game has some reasonable distancing, but is largely playing the same game: lackluster posting, lurking, and not contributing much. Giving the bare minimum to pass by, not drawing attention. Letting the active posters duke it out in town V town fighting, and subtly supporting this from the background. Focusing on mechanics talk rather than punhunting, for cheap towncred while avoiding giving hard stances that are difficult to back out of.

Is this an original plan? Why no, no it isn't. Is it a "boring" plan? Why yes, yes it is; it is thoroughly uninspired. Why doesn't that disqualify it from being Pine's plan? Because Pine is incredibly pragmatic and opportunistic. If he sees an opening to use a strategy, it doesn't matter how boring/unoriginal it is. He'll use it anyway because a plan which is boring yet practical is a more surefire way to win the game. He doesn't need to make flashy maneuvers. Flashy maneuvers are Pine's desperation moves, when he is backed into a corner.

The most unorthodox part of Pine's pun stratagem lies in his nightkills, something we haven't witnessed yet. His dayplay is not something very creative as he has no need to shift gears from the plan he knows will work, until something (like a player who is on an alt that secretly has loads of experience with him he was unaware of) throws a wrench in the plan. And he doesn't even enact that until the last possible moment; if he thinks he can salvage his original plan, at every opportunity, he will.

I can cite Turn of Camn as the most fresh example of this; at every point he was adamantly against altering the plan to account for Ellibereth, until he was given no choice. You were there so you should know precisely what I am talking about. Pine's play is his textbook punplay this game. He hasn't shifted gears yet because he still holds hope his plan will work, so it's still on display for all to see.
Here I explain what Pine's pungame is, and why his plan this game is it.
In post 708, Punreader wrote:
In post 673, Dunnstral wrote:Pine is scummy on this page
Immensely so, and it is proof of the concept I am referring to.

He is shifting focus away from punhunting, and onto theory discussion. Theory discussion has the benefit of looking town and can offer him immediate towncred, while also distracting the town because theory discussion bears no ACTUAL alignment relevance.
Here I bring up by proxy examples of the behavior I am citing from Pine which are his pungame, and explaining why they are indicative of him being pun.
In post 709, Punreader wrote:
In post 700, PenguinPower wrote:I'm certain that he half claimed, then admitted to lying about his claim, then added a N1 modifier after being asked to vig me.
This is a fine narrative but one which fails to live up to reality.
This was a proxy-callout of the punteam. Pine, TehBrawlGuy, and PenguinPower have all taken similar stances on the nature of my role, as if there were a discussion behind closed doors.

Since I know that's not a neighborhood with daychat, there's only one option that comes to mind.
In post 712, Punreader wrote:
In post 711, Punreader wrote:
In post 705, Srceenplay wrote:
In post 703, Punreader wrote:If it were bullshit as you say, then you'd be able to explain why it was bullshit. You're not as incompetent/lackluster as you are pretending to be.
That’s bull shit as well because you would know that I am incompetent at explaining.
No, you claim you are but you're not. You explain things better than you are pretending. Furthermore, you actually
try
to explain things. You don't leave things as empty statements; you still explain in spite of the "incompetence" at explaining.

I know this in part because I have a similar perspective as pun; I underestimate my own competency as town and pretend I am a worse town player than I actually am, and
this
is what I am saying you are doing. You are stating you are incompetent when I know for a fact you are not actually that incompetent. You likely have a self-perception you're not that incompetent, and thus as pun you "mute" your own competency.

Perhaps I am not explaining this as well as I should, but I feel my message gets across. There is a disconnect between the level of skill I have witnessed from you when you've been town, and the level of skill you are displaying in this game. That disconnect most likely originates from a perception of "I'm not a good town player, so I need to pretend I'm not a good player", leading to you as pun being less competent than you should be.
Another way of stating this:
I do not believe you're lying about thinking it's bullshit.
I do not believe you
think
you're lying about being incompetent.
I believe you fully
think
that you're incompetent as town.
But I believe that perception is flawed, and that you're
not actually incompetent as town in spite of believing you're incompetent as town
.
And
due to this flawed perception, as pun you act incompetently
.
Which introduces the disconnect.
Here I engage Screenplay and go into greater detail as to why I am punreading him.
In post 729, Punreader wrote:
In post 724, Nahdia wrote:i feel like scum is lurking pretty hard rn.
Then you should rate Pine 0 and give a low rating to Screenplay.
Here I directly call Pine and Screenplay lurkers, as the most blatant examples.
That's the most important takeaways from my content.
You may note that is well over half of my iso devoted entirely towards pushing Pine.
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Post Post #1299 (isolation #42) » Sun Jun 24, 2018 1:01 pm

Post by Punreader »

In post 912, Vaxkiller wrote:Pun, did you keep a document of you reads or something?
Yes.
In post 370, Punreader wrote:
TOWNIE TENS:

Chara

EAGER EIGHTS:

Taly
Dunnstral
ActionDan

SOLID SIXES:

Shoshin
MariaR
Espeonage

FINICKY FIVES:

the worst
Fire Assassin
DeasVail
Vaxkiller

UNFORTUNATE FOURS:

NicoRobin
ReubenWasFine

IN-BETWEEN THREES:

Srceenplay

TERRIBLE TWOS:

TehBrawlGuy
PenguinPower

ZOMBIFY THESE ZEROES:

Pine/TwoInAMillion
The
strength
of these reads changed (most notably, PenguinPower moving from a 2 to a 0), but the
positioning
of reads never changed past this point. This is because my reasons for these reads,
Spoiler: Found Here,
In post 534, Punreader wrote:PenguinPower has become a zero, but I will detail that later; otherwise, this remains unchanged and is my reference point.

I'll begin by stating, most of my reads come from meta combined with motivations: what I expect to see as either alignment. I can do this for almost the entire playerlist to some extent, but some of these reads are going to have a stronger base than others. With that established...

Chara:
My Chara townread comes primarily from having many games' experience with it. I hesitate to Chare my past experience (as my meta comes from first-hand exposure, linking to examples would be traceable to my main), but the Chararal Chist of it is that Chara always Chows a strong aptitude for forwarding a town wincon. (Okay I'll stop that now.) When Chara is town, it demonstrates this by providing a transparent thought process where its reasoning can be traced, step by step, from beginning to end. This trait, in of itself, isn't town, but what amplifies it is the consistency and the delivery of it. It's not only the process itself, but the content therein. While Chara is not an elite punhunter, Chara's process still provides reasonable town positions to hold.

This is not something Chara can fake convincingly. You can always tell Chara is town by it demonstrating the genuine attempt to game solve, furthering the town wincon in the process. In spite of Chara not being an elite punhunter, in its own way, you can still hold a certain burden of proficiency to it; if Chara's stances don't seem reasonable positions to hold, then it could be pun. However, Chara's content this game
does
show reasonable stances, with reasonable justifications. I follow the process, even if I don't fully agree with it. I agree with more than I don't, and understand how Chara is getting from point A to point B. All of this strongly suggests town.

Taly:
If you Tally his posts, it should be immediately obvious why I hold this read. He has the highest post count in this game by far, and in those posts, constantly, neverending, there is content where he explains his reads, justifies his stances, asks questions, and engages players. Not in of itself enough to be town because tryhard pun is a thing, but when you look at the nature of the content it becomes clear he isn't just doing "busywork". His content builds off of itself; he follows through on the content, and when his stances change, there is a logical progression in the shift.

When he presents posts, he does so without an attempt to force us to wolf it down. This violetly aggressive pushing shows a desire to work with others in a way difficult, but not quite impossible, to fake. He is similar to Chara in this regard, but I don't have the same level of familiarity with him to be as confident on my read here as I do on Chara.

Dunnstral:
I may have been a little hasty in having him this high, but I feel this is his town game off of what little he has provided. Admittedly, he lurks as both alignments but initial signs point to town.

Nahdia/ActionDan:
This read comes from ActionDan, obviously. ActionDan didn't contribute much before leaving the game, but what he did give was enough to make me instantly feel this is his towngame. When ActionDan is town, I expect his reads to be fairly competent, and also to have some level of synchronization with mine. He was suspicious of Screenplay before even I was, and also noted suspicion on TehBrawlGuy well before the thought crossed my mind. Does this mean his reads are right, of course not, but the fact he saw the same slots I see as suspect before I did is an instantly promising sign. His analysis of Espeonage is fairly good as well, and I thought his position on Chara/Deas was indicative of solid, critical thinking of a type difficult to fake as pun.

However, the lack of overall activity and his natural competency as a pun player keep this from being a read I would more strongly Act on. Counterbalancing that, given he was replaced I'd say that isn't Danning at all, so I may be promoting Nahdia's slot.

Shoshin:
Shoshin is one of the players in this game I am least-familiar with, so I can't speak about her with any meta-based experience. However, just off of her play, I felt that her content was indicative of town solving. and are comments that could come from pun, but I lean town on. Many of the directions she's headed have felt like good ones; I've liked the inquiries in posts such as , , , , , , , , , , and . There's good analysis in . However, I'm a little concerned that a great amount of what she has done doesn't appear to have much follow-through to it. This is mitigated by the times I can see it (for instance, the continued Screenplay push), but there are many times where I don't see her evolution in process, keeping me from promoting her. Shoshi's reasonably town, yet not locktown.

MariaR:
I have extensive experience with Maria. I'm not at the point where I can soulread her (not even remotely close), but I still have a reasonable baseline for what she'll be like as town, and initial signs are promising. However, this is not something I can lock in because the best ally in reading her is time we've not had; you never know, something might Mar my Rid there later.

Espeonage:
I don't actually have a good ability to read Espeonage even though I've spied on plenty of his games before. He's a little difficult to pin down; a fair amount of his content
has
made me question him, but he always ninjas his way out by the end. It's mostly the little things which give him this rating; I liked his lighthearted banter seen in such places as , balanced nicely by more serious gamesolving. Many of his prods have felt good, yet this boon is ruined by the conclusions reached from them; his stated reads are, by and large, backwards from what I would expect. Espeonage is reasonably competent, yet all the players I'm suspicious of (Pine, PenguinPower, TehBrawlGuy, Screenplay) are players he's giving passes for whatever reason, even if he had genuine inquiries.

the worst:
Another player I can't reliably read, albeit in part owing to lack of extensive experience. the worst case scenario would be him as pun, but I don't have any reason to suspect he is. He doesn't particularly make me feel town, but lacking a reason to punread him, he may actually be worthy of promotion.

Fire Assassin:
Though I have the experience necessary to meta read Fire Assassin
in theory
, in practice I simply don't know what I'm doing with him and pretending I do would be detrimental. I have no clue what to look for; I have no tells on him; I don't know what indicates he's town or pun. I can tell you overall on his play alone, the content he has produced hasn't been a Sin, but if there is a strong town Fire, I've yet to see it lit. If I had to make a call, it would be town, but I would do so with no confidence whatsoever.
In post 552, Punreader wrote:
DeasVail:
DeasVail is an incredibly talented pun player, and nothing he has done is out of his punrange. In fact, a fair amount of his content is actually the sort I'd expect if he were pun. For the longest time, he was
lower
in my readslist. What actually bumped him up was, in fact, when he gave
his
reads in . His Intervention was an incredible step in the right direction.

Though it's not impossible for him to distance/bus and it's a certainty my reads are far from perfect (and thus, that he could be pun that pushes town players I'm punreading), the significant overlap in reads and his explanation of his process all the same was enough to remove him from the lower half of my reads. Altogether, while he has a permanent Vail preventing me from putting him much higher, he is still someone I'd say is more likely town than not.

Vaxkiller:
Vaxkiller also has gone on a rollercoaster in my reads, from a six to a four before I settled on five. To some extent, he Vaxes me; I don't have a reliable way of reading his contribution. However, some of his pushes, while containing some...questionable...reasoning, look like they are genuinely going in the right direction. Not a killer-strong read, but enough that I want to keep him in the game longer.

NicoRobin:
Nico's not reacting in the way I would expect her to if she were town, but I want to wait longer before committing to this, because she also lurks/flakes plenty as town and this could be one of those times. If she does the thing I am expecting her to do as either alignment, I'll have a better handle on her.

ReubenWasFine:
There isn't much here and I have no game experience with Reuben, but Reuben's contributions to this game have been...lackluster. Not condemning, but certainly not endearing.

Screenplay:
Screenplay's contribution this game on the other hand have been somewhat indicative of pun. He is also fairly lackluster, but the difference is I have the experience with him to know that if he were town he
shouldn't
be. None of his contributions in this game have been even remotely endearing, and yet I've seen plenty of content sending up red flags, as early as . was hollow as well, with no purpose behind it. His reads such as in are opposite what they should be, and he is someone who I respect as a punhunter. Being on vacation feels like more of an excuse than anything else; he is posting plenty, he is reading everything (both of these are self-evident if you look at his iso), and yet in spite of this he is doing virtually nothing.

TehBrawlGuy:
This is another player I don't have much experience with, but his posting has continued to get worse. I'm having trouble explaining this one at the moment, so I'll try to tackle him in a separate post.

PenguinPower:
No need for me to explain my read here. I can simply recycle what I said on him before.
In post 473, Punreader wrote: PenguinPower had an incredibly town entrance, which was natural; there was absolutely nothing artificial or fake in his opening. This earned him the spot as my penultimate townread. Since then, there has been a perfect blend of being lighthearted and scumhunting; he's neither fluff posted nor been super serious. That is exactly what I would expect of him as town. Pending some major change, my townread there is never shifting its strength.
In post 964, Punreader wrote:
In post 892, PenguinPower wrote:I have no feelings on Titus right now. I am very skeptical of people who town read me D1 (outside a very small set of players), especially when they don't provide a reason as to why they town read me when asked.
I provided my reasoning.
In post 473, Punreader wrote:
In post 456, Jingle wrote:I'll bite the bait though, tell me about this PP read.
I already did; you should have paid attention the first time.
In post 294, Punreader wrote:
In post 28, PenguinPower wrote:Yea, but...I'm policy lynching...uh....
Power to you, my friend. I believe you have no place in a penitentiary.
PenguinPower had an incredibly town entrance, which was natural; there was absolutely nothing artificial or fake in his opening. This earned him the spot as my penultimate townread. Since then, there has been a perfect blend of being lighthearted and scumhunting; he's neither fluff posted nor been super serious. That is exactly what I would expect of him as town. Pending some major change, my townread there is never shifting its strength.
This still holds. I am quite positive you have been scumhunting and you yourself know that to be true. If you want me to point out the more 'lighthearted' content, I can.
Except this game, just invert it; PenguinPower's entrance this game was incredibly stilted. His posting this game has been entirely super-serious; he is altogether missing the lighthearted aspect. His focus has been too much on mechanics and not enough on punhunting. Add in that the role he claimed is literally a pun role, and he is a solid punread.

Pine:
I described the threefold reasons for this read briefly before.
In post 525, Punreader wrote:Pine, the short version is that this is Pine transparently being a punfuck. I am intimately familiar with his meta as both alignments and I guarantee you his contribution this game is him as pun. I can cite multiple behavioral tells to this effect, from what content he is giving, what reads he has given, to the ways he has given it and I will do precisely that in the full version. He had no clue he was playing with
me
, so he didn't properly hide his tells that give him away to me.
The way Pine gave his content was in his posting gimmick. Pine was giving his reads through the "hey Errant got really drunk and slipped in discord..." method. The mod may have told him to stop, but without the mod intervening there, he would have continued to use that gimmick for the whole game.

I can cite multiple references to this, but most famously would in fact be Civilization, something Nahdia should be all too aware of. Pine uses gimmicks to mask his pun content, as a way of hiding in plain sight. They have served him well in the past, acting as a way to engage others in an entertaining manner but also lead to them underestimating him.

Prior to the gimmick, which brings me to the first point, Pine was contributing nothing. This was part of where the punread originated. Pine willingly replaced into the game. What did he do after replacing in? Nothing. Pine replaced in at , page 7, on June 5th.
Pine's first content was , a singular line on PenguinPower echoing thread consensus (more on that when we get to point two), but his first full contribution is , page 19, on June 9th.

He has given no reasons for his reads. (The gimmick also helps to serve mask a lack of reasons.) And he has given reads on only a small fraction of the players in the game. And he has done nothing since choosing to replace in. I know Pine, and while he may adamantly deny it, as pun he is a lurker, both in the sense of not posting often and actively lurking a fair amount of the time he posts.

Were he town, he would have upon replacing in done his absolute best to give content in spite of having not read the game. Pine replacing in as town needs not have read the whole game to contribute opinions, but the Pine of this game did nothing...except for, when he did go with his gimmicky reads, defend the players in the game most likely to be pun.

Why is that condemning?

Because Pine is the strongest anti-busser pun player on the site. He will distance. He'll even vote a punbuddy. He might 'bus' in the sense that he'll pine after a punbuddy who makes sense to push but given the slightest excuse he'll abort it if he sees an opportunity to let the punbuddy live. And he sees opportunities even where by all rights none
should
be. By that I mean he sees a chance to abort a bus where other players insist to continue one.

This is particularly pertinent given PenguinPower. If you assume PenguinPower is pun, then is perfect distancing. Given the first opportunity, . And his other noteworthy townread? . The two players in the game aside from Pine, most likely to be pun, and Pine townreads them.

His approach this game has been pun. His content this game has been pun. This is, 100% guaranteed to be his pungame. He would never have played this way if he had known I was in the game, but since he was unaware of my presence, he thought that this strategy would go unnoticed.
Never changed.

I still find PenguinPower, TehBrawlGuy, and Screenplay suspect for the same reasons I did before.
I still hold various forms of null reads on the worst (although I am warming up to the idea of him being town here), Fire Assassin, DeasVail, and Vaxkiller.
I still hold very strong townreads on Chara, Taly, and Nahdia.
I still hold minor townreads on Shoshin, MariaR, and Espeonage.

Of course I
am
15 pages behind so this may change as I catch up, in which case I will inform you of this.
Let me give an Alternative perspective.
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Post Post #1300 (isolation #43) » Sun Jun 24, 2018 1:09 pm

Post by Punreader »

In post 928, Taly wrote:I want to hear more rankings and that
Pine
-vig explanation from
Pun
before I extend this.
I told you on D1 that I was going to vig a punread of mine.

There were precisely four players I was punreading.

I promised not to vig TehBrawlGuy (which was my original plan prior to making the promise), so in spite of punreading him I wasn't about to vig him. (Tempting as it was to start D2 with "Remember when I said I wouldn't vig you? I lied.", I prefer to not be a prick whenever possible so upheld my promise.) Also, he was the player most likely to be ranked higher than me. (Which would be an automatic failure for my vig.)

I expected the pun to believe I'd be vigging PenguinPower (my plan was instead to just lynch PenguinPower today), so I wasn't going to vig him.

That left Screenplay and Pine as my possible vigs.

Screenplay was a
significantly
weaker punread of mine; I felt I was far more likely to be wrong about him than Pine, and I really didn't want to shoot town. (I was aiming for a picture-perfect town win.) So I shot my strongest punread, because I felt it was the shot least expected while having the highest chance of hitting pun.

Speaking of the lynch:
VOTE: PenguinPower.
Meant to do this earlier.
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Post Post #1301 (isolation #44) » Sun Jun 24, 2018 1:20 pm

Post by Punreader »

In post 840, Fire Assassin wrote:Dunnstral - 4
Pine - 4
PenguinPower - 4
Fire Assassin:
Your list contains three fours, and only one five; as per the rankings, we are to give out two fives and two fours. Which of your fours is actually a five? Do you know? If not, can you ask the mod?
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Post Post #1302 (isolation #45) » Sun Jun 24, 2018 1:34 pm

Post by Punreader »

By the way, pausing my readthrough because I am trying to calculate the data available; every player aside from Screenplay, Pine, and Lovebird has their rankings known at this point. (And with luck, Pine told his neighbor.)
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Post Post #1307 (isolation #46) » Sun Jun 24, 2018 4:28 pm

Post by Punreader »

It took me a while to do, but here is what I came up with. (I am fairly certain the data is not 100% correct and I've made errors, but it is more or less what information we have available.)

Spoiler: Every Players' Rankings (by playerlist)
TEHBRAWLGUY:
TehBrawlGuy (10)
Punreader (10)
Pine (10)
Dunnstral (9)
MariaR (8)
Shoshin (7)
Nahdia (6)
Chara (6)
DeasVail (5)
Lovebird (5)
Fire Assassin (4)
Vaxkiller (4)
Screenplay (3)
the worst (2)
Taly (1)
Espeonage (0)
PenguinPower (0)
NicoRobin (0)

TALY:
Taly (10)
Punreader (10)
Chara (10)
the worst (9)
Shoshin (8)
Screenplay (7)
MariaR (6)
DeasVail (6)
TehBrawlGuy (5)
Pine (5)
Nahdia (4)
NicoRobin (4)
Lovebird (3)
Dunnstral (2)
Fire Assassain (1)
Espeonage (0)
Vaxkiller (0)
PenguinPower (0)

PUNREADER:
Taly (10)
Punreader (10)
Chara (10)
Dunnstral (9)
Nahdia (8)
Shoshin (7)
MariaR (6)
Espeonage (6)
the worst (5)
Fire Assassin (5)
DeasVail (4)
Vaxkiller (4)
NicoRobin (3)
Lovebird (2)
Screenplay (1)
TehBrawlGuy (0)
Pine (0)
PenguinPower (0)

MARIAR:
Punreader (10)
MariaR (10)
Espeonage (10)
TehBrawlGuy (9)
the worst (8)
PenguinPower (7)
Chara (6)
Screenplay (6)
DeasVail (5)
Dunnstral (5)
Taly (4)
Shoshin (4)
Fire Assassin (3)
Pine (2)
Vaxkiller (1)
Nahdia (0)
Lovebird (0)
NicoRobin (0)

DEASVAIL:
Taly (10)
Punreader (10)
DeasVail (10)
the worst (9)
Shoshin (8)
Screenplay (7)
Chara (6)
Vaxkiller (6)
Nahdia (5)
Fire Assassin (5)
Dunnstral (4)
Pine (4)
TehBrawlGuy (3)
Espeonage (2)
Lovebird (1)
MariaR (0)
PenguinPower (0)
NicoRobin (0)

ESPEONAGE:
Espeonage (10)
Dunnstral (10)
Vaxkiller (10)
TehBrawlGuy (9)
Taly (8)
the worst (7)
DeasVeil (6)
PenguinPower (6)
MariaR (5)
Chara (5)
Punreader (4)
Nahdia (4)
Shoshin (3)
Screenplay (2)
Lovebird (1)
Fire Assassin (0)
Pine (0)
Nico Robin (0)

DUNNSTRAL:
Dunnstral (10)
Fire Assassin (10)
Chara (10)
Taly (9)
Espeonage (8)
Punreader (7)
MariaR (6)
Screenplay (6)
Nahdia (5)
the worst (5)
DeasVail (4)
Pine (4)
Shoshin (3)
TehBrawlGuy (2)
PenguinPower (1)
Lovebird (0)
Vaxkiller (0)
NicoRobin (0)

NAHDIA:
Punreader (10)
Nahdia (10)
Chara (10)
Fire Assassin (9)
PenguinPower (8)
the worst (7)
Espeonage (6)
Shoshin (6)
Taly (5)
DeasVail (5)
TehBrawlGuy (4)
Pine (4)
MariaR (3)
Dunnstral (2)
Lovebird (1)
Screenplay (0)
Vaxkiller (0)
NicoRobin (0)

THE WORST:
Taly (10)
the worst (10)
Chara (10)
Espeonage (9)
MariaR (8)
Nahdia (7)
TehBrawlGuy (6)
DeasVail (6)
Punreader (5)
PenguinPower (5)
Pine (4)
Vaxkiller (4)
Shoshin (3)
Dunnstral (2)
Fire Assassin (1)
Lovebird (0)
Screenplay (0)
NicoRobin (0)

PINE:
TehBrawlGuy (10)
Pine (10)
Chara (10)
Taly (9)
Fire Assassin (8)
??? (7)
??? (6)
??? (6)
??? (5)
??? (5)
??? (4)
??? (4)
??? (3)
??? (2)
??? (1)
Punreader (0 * 2)
Nahdia (0)
PenguinPower (0)

SHOSHIN:
Taly (10)
Shoshin (10)
Chara (10)
the worst (9)
TehBrawlGuy (8)
Screenplay (7)
DeasVail (6)
Dunnstral (6)
Punreader (5)
Vaxkiller (5)
Nahdia (4)
NicoRobin (4)
Espeonage (3)
Fire Assassin (2)
Pine (1)
MariaR (0)
Lovebird (0)
PenguinPower (0)

FIRE ASSASSIN:
Nahdia (10)
Fire Assassin (10)
Chara (10)
MariaR (9)
TehBrawlGuy (8)
the worst (7)
Shoshin (6)
Screenplay (6)
DeasVail (5)
Dunnstral (4) (ONE OF THESE IS A FIVE)
Pine (4) (ONE OF THESE IS A FIVE)
PenguinPower (4) (ONE OF THESE IS A FIVE)
Punreader (3)
Taly (2)
Lovebird (1)
Espeonage (0)
Vaxkiller (0)
NicoRobin (0)

(LOVEBIRD RANKINGS UNKNOWN)

CHARA:
TehBrawlGuy (10)
Taly (10)
Chara (10)
Nahdia (9)
Punreader (8)
the worst (7)
MariaR (6)
Shoshin (6)
DeasVail (5)
Dunnstral (5)
Espeonage (4)
Fire Assassin (4)
Lovebird (3)
PenguinPower (2)
NicoRobin (1)
Pine (0)
Screenplay (0)
Vaxkiller (0)

(SCREENPLAY RANKINGS UNKNOWN)

VAXKILLER:
Nahdia (10)
Pine (10)
Vaxkiller (10)
Fire Assassin (9)
PenguinPower (8)
Punreader (7)
DeasVail (6)
Screenplay (6)
the worst (5)
Lovebird (5)
Espeonage (4)
Shoshin (4)
Chara (3)
Dunnstral (2)
NicoRobin (1)
TehBrawlGuy (0)
Taly (0)
MariaR (0)

PENGUINPOWER:
MariaR (10)
Dunnstral (10)
PenguinPower (10)
TehBrawlGuy (9)
DeasVail (8)
Espeonage (7)
the worst (6)
Vaxkiller (6)
Lovebird (5)
Screenplay (5)
Shoshin (4)
Fire Assassin (4)
Nahdia (3)
Pine (2)
NicoRobin (1)
Taly (0)
Punreader (0 * 2)
Chara (0)

NICOROBIN:
Espeonage (10)
Pine (10)
NicoRobin (10)
PenguinPower (9)
Chara (8)
Dunnstral (7)
Nahdia (6)
the worst (6)
Screenplay (5)
Vaxkiller (5)
MariaR (4)
DeasVail (4)
Taly (3)
TehBrawlGuy (2)
Lovebird (1)
Punreader (0 * 2)
Shoshin (0)
Fire Assassin (0)


Spoiler: CALCULATED SCORES (by ranking):
1. Chara:
9 10s
0 9s
1 8
0 7s
3 6s
1 5
0 4s
1 3
0 2s
0 1s
0 0s

90 + 8 + 18 + 5 + 3 = 124
9 + 1 + 3 + 1 + 1 = 15
124 / 15 = ~8.27 average

2. Taly:
6 10s
2 9s
1 8
0 7s
0 6s
1 5
1 4
1 3
1 2
1 1
1 0

60 + 18 + 8 + 5 + 4 + 3 + 2 + 1 = 101
6 + 2 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 = 15
101 / 15 = ~6.7 average

3. the worst:
1 10
3 9s
1 8
4 7s
1 6
3 5s
0 4s
0 3s
1 2
0 1s
0 0s

10 + 27 + 8 + 28 + 6 + 15 + 2 = 96
1 + 3 + 1 + 4 + 1 + 3 + 1 = 15
96 / 15 = ~6.4 average

4. Nahdia:
4 10s
1 9
0 8s
1 7
2 6s
2 5s
3 4s
0 3s
0 2s
0 1s
2 0s

40 + 9 + 7 + 12 + 10 + 12 = 90
4 + 1 + 1 + 2 + 2 + 3 + 2 = 15
90 / 15 = ~6.00 average

5. Punreader:
6 10s
0 9s
1 8
2 7s
0 6s
2 5s
1 4
1 3
0 2s
0 * 2 1s (0 1s)
2 * 2 0s (4 0s)

60 + 8 + 14 + 10 + 4 + 3 = 99
6 + 1 + 2 + 2 + 1 + 1 + 4 = 17
99 / 17 = ~5.8 average

6. TehBrawlGuy:
3 10s
2 9s
2 8s
0 7s
1 6
1 5
1 4
1 3
2 2s
0 1s
2 0s

30 + 18 + 16 + 6 + 5 + 4 + 3 + 4 = 86
3 + 2 + 2 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 2 + 2 = 15
86 / 15 = ~5.73 average

7. DeasVail:
1 10
0 9s
0 8s
0 7s
5 6s
5 5s
3 4s
0 3s
0 2s
0 1s
0 0s

10 + 30 + 25 + 12 = 77
1 + 5 + 5 + 3 = 14
77 / 14 = ~5.5 average

8. Shoshin:
1 10
0 9s
2 8s
2 7s
3 6s
0 5s
2 4s
3 3s
0 2s
0 1s
1 0

10 + 16 + 14 + 18 + 8 + 9 = 75
1 + 2 + 2 + 3 + 2 + 3 + 1 = 14
75 / 14 = ~5.35 average

9. Dunnstral:
2 10s
2 9s
0 8s
1 7
1 6
2 5
1.5 4s
0 3s
4 2s
0 1s
0 0s

20 + 18 + 7 + 6 + 10 + 6 + 4 = 71
2 + 2 + 1 + 1 + 2 + 1.5 + 4 = 13.5
71 / 13.5 = ~5.26 average

10. Espeonage:
3 10s
1 9
1 8
0 7s
2 6s
0 5s
2 4s
1 3
1 2
0 1s
3 0s

30 + 9 + 8 + 12 + 8 + 3 + 2 = 72
3 + 1 + 1 + 2 + 2 + 1 + 1 + 3 = 14
72 / 14 = ~5.1 average

11. MariaR:
1 10
1 9
2 8s
0 7s
4 6s
1 5
1 4
1 3
0 2s
0 1s
3 0s

10 + 9 + 16 + 24 + 5 + 4 + 3 = 71
1 + 1 + 2 + 4 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 3 = 14
71 / 14 = ~5.07 average

12. Fire Assassin:
2 10s
2 9s
1 8
2 5s
2 4s
1 3
1 2
2 1s
2 0s

20 + 18 + 8 + 10 + 8 + 3 + 2 + 2 = 71
2 + 2 + 1 + 2 + 2 + 1 + 1 + 2 + 2 = 15
71 / 15 = ~4.7 average

13. Pine:
4 10s
0 9s
0 8s
0 7s
0 6s
1 5
4.5 4s
0 3s
1 2
1 1
3 0s

40 + 5 + 18 + 2 + 1 = 66
4 + 1 + 4.5 + 1 + 1 + 3 = 14.5
66 / 14.5 = ~4.55 average

14. Screenplay:
0 10s
0 9s
0 8s
3 7s
4 6s
1 5
0 4s
1 3
1 2
1 1
3 0s

21 + 24 + 5 + 3 + 2 + 1 = 56
3 + 4 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 3 = 14
56 / 14 = ~4.00 average

15. PenguinPower:
1 10
1 9
2 8s
1 7
1 6
1 5
.5 4s
0 3s
1 2
1 1
6 0s

10 + 9 + 18 + 7 + 6 + 5 + 2 + 2 + 1 = 60
1 + 1 + 2 + 1 + 1 + 1 + .5 + 1 + 1 + 6 = 15.5
60 / 15.5 = ~3.87 average

16. Vaxkiller:
2 10s
0 9s
0 8s
0 7s
1 6
2 5s
3 4s
0 3s
0 2s
1 1
5 0s

20 + 6 + 10 + 12 + 1 = 49
2 + 1 + 2 + 3 + 1 + 5 = 14
49 / 14 = ~3.5 average

17a. Lovebird:
0 10s
0 9s
0 8s
0 7s
0 6s
2 5s
0 4s
2 3s
1 2
5 1s
4 0s

10 + 6 + 2 + 5 = 23
2 + 2 + 1 + 5 + 4 = 14
23 / 14 = ~1.6 average

17b. NicoRobin:
1 10
0 9s
0 8s
0 7s
0 6s
0 5s
2 4s
1 3
0 2s
3 1s
8 0s

10 + 8 + 3 + 3 = 24
1 + 2 + 1 + 3 + 8 = 15
24 / 15 = ~1.6 average
The important ones:
13. Pine: ~4.55 average (4 10s; 3 0s)
17a. Lovebird: ~1.6 average (0 10s; 4 0s)
17b. NicoRobin: ~1.6 average (1 10; 8 0s)

Compared to the actual scores:

LOVEBIRD (18):
1.78
No 10s
4 0s

NICOROBIN (17):
2.06
1 10
8 0s

PINE (12):
4.67
10 4s
3 0s

Interestingly? While I calculated Pine's score as being higher than what it actually is (but not by much), Pine's position is ranked one lower than what it actually is. NicoRobin should also have more points than what is visible here.

However, while the calculations are likely not perfect and the data is incomplete, these numbers are still
more or less
lining up to reality.

Given this, we can fairly safely assume
nobody lied about their scores.


If someone had lied about their scores, I'd be expecting a far greater discrepancy between my calculated scores and the proven scores.
Let me give an Alternative perspective.
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Post Post #1310 (isolation #47) » Sun Jun 24, 2018 4:55 pm

Post by Punreader »

In post 1147, Fire Assassin wrote:I am a ranking cop.
If I rank higher than the person I am checking I will get the results I should get if I was a normal cop
If I am lower I get the opposite of what I should get
In post 1307, Punreader wrote:10. Espeonage: ~5.1 average
12. Fire Assassin: ~4.7 average
Right, so you just cop cleared Espeonage then; your result indicates he is town. You're ranked lower than him, so your mafia result is the opposite of what you should get.
Let me give an Alternative perspective.
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Post Post #1311 (isolation #48) » Sun Jun 24, 2018 4:59 pm

Post by Punreader »

I made an error in my rankings; I did not account for Nico's votes being doubled. That changes everything. One moment, I'll see if I can recalculate.
Let me give an Alternative perspective.
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Post Post #1314 (isolation #49) » Sun Jun 24, 2018 5:29 pm

Post by Punreader »

Spoiler: Every Players' Rankings (by playerlist)
TEHBRAWLGUY:
TehBrawlGuy (10)
Punreader (10)
Pine (10)
Dunnstral (9)
MariaR (8)
Shoshin (7)
Nahdia (6)
Chara (6)
DeasVail (5)
Lovebird (5)
Fire Assassin (4)
Vaxkiller (4)
Screenplay (3)
the worst (2)
Taly (1)
Espeonage (0)
PenguinPower (0)
NicoRobin (0)

TALY:
Taly (10)
Punreader (10)
Chara (10)
the worst (9)
Shoshin (8)
Screenplay (7)
MariaR (6)
DeasVail (6)
TehBrawlGuy (5)
Pine (5)
Nahdia (4)
NicoRobin (4)
Lovebird (3)
Dunnstral (2)
Fire Assassain (1)
Espeonage (0)
Vaxkiller (0)
PenguinPower (0)

PUNREADER:
Taly (10)
Punreader (10)
Chara (10)
Dunnstral (9)
Nahdia (8)
Shoshin (7)
MariaR (6)
Espeonage (6)
the worst (5)
Fire Assassin (5)
DeasVail (4)
Vaxkiller (4)
NicoRobin (3)
Lovebird (2)
Screenplay (1)
TehBrawlGuy (0)
Pine (0)
PenguinPower (0)

MARIAR:
Punreader (10)
MariaR (10)
Espeonage (10)
TehBrawlGuy (9)
the worst (8)
PenguinPower (7)
Chara (6)
Screenplay (6)
DeasVail (5)
Dunnstral (5)
Taly (4)
Shoshin (4)
Fire Assassin (3)
Pine (2)
Vaxkiller (1)
Nahdia (0)
Lovebird (0)
NicoRobin (0)

DEASVAIL:
Taly (10)
Punreader (10)
DeasVail (10)
the worst (9)
Shoshin (8)
Screenplay (7)
Chara (6)
Vaxkiller (6)
Nahdia (5)
Fire Assassin (5)
Dunnstral (4)
Pine (4)
TehBrawlGuy (3)
Espeonage (2)
Lovebird (1)
MariaR (0)
PenguinPower (0)
NicoRobin (0)

ESPEONAGE:
Espeonage (10)
Dunnstral (10)
Vaxkiller (10)
TehBrawlGuy (9)
Taly (8)
the worst (7)
DeasVeil (6)
PenguinPower (6)
MariaR (5)
Chara (5)
Punreader (4)
Nahdia (4)
Shoshin (3)
Screenplay (2)
Lovebird (1)
Fire Assassin (0)
Pine (0)
Nico Robin (0)

DUNNSTRAL:
Dunnstral (10)
Fire Assassin (10)
Chara (10)
Taly (9)
Espeonage (8)
Punreader (7)
MariaR (6)
Screenplay (6)
Nahdia (5)
the worst (5)
DeasVail (4)
Pine (4)
Shoshin (3)
TehBrawlGuy (2)
PenguinPower (1)
Lovebird (0)
Vaxkiller (0)
NicoRobin (0)

NAHDIA:
Punreader (10)
Nahdia (10)
Chara (10)
Fire Assassin (9)
PenguinPower (8)
the worst (7)
Espeonage (6)
Shoshin (6)
Taly (5)
DeasVail (5)
TehBrawlGuy (4)
Pine (4)
MariaR (3)
Dunnstral (2)
Lovebird (1)
Screenplay (0)
Vaxkiller (0)
NicoRobin (0)

THE WORST:
Taly (10)
the worst (10)
Chara (10)
Espeonage (9)
MariaR (8)
Nahdia (7)
TehBrawlGuy (6)
DeasVail (6)
Punreader (5)
PenguinPower (5)
Pine (4)
Vaxkiller (4)
Shoshin (3)
Dunnstral (2)
Fire Assassin (1)
Lovebird (0)
Screenplay (0)
NicoRobin (0)

PINE:
TehBrawlGuy (10)
Pine (10)
Chara (10)
Taly (9)
Fire Assassin (8)
??? (7)
??? (6)
??? (6)
??? (5)
??? (5)
??? (4)
??? (4)
??? (3)
??? (2)
??? (1)
Punreader (0 * 2)
Nahdia (0)
PenguinPower (0)

SHOSHIN:
Taly (10)
Shoshin (10)
Chara (10)
the worst (9)
TehBrawlGuy (8)
Screenplay (7)
DeasVail (6)
Dunnstral (6)
Punreader (5)
Vaxkiller (5)
Nahdia (4)
NicoRobin (4)
Espeonage (3)
Fire Assassin (2)
Pine (1)
MariaR (0)
Lovebird (0)
PenguinPower (0)

FIRE ASSASSIN:
Nahdia (10)
Fire Assassin (10)
Chara (10)
MariaR (9)
TehBrawlGuy (8)
the worst (7)
Shoshin (6)
Screenplay (6)
DeasVail (5)
Dunnstral (4) (ONE OF THESE IS A FIVE)
Pine (4) (ONE OF THESE IS A FIVE)
PenguinPower (4) (ONE OF THESE IS A FIVE)
Punreader (3)
Taly (2)
Lovebird (1)
Espeonage (0)
Vaxkiller (0)
NicoRobin (0)

(LOVEBIRD RANKINGS UNKNOWN)

CHARA:
TehBrawlGuy (10)
Taly (10)
Chara (10)
Nahdia (9)
Punreader (8)
the worst (7)
MariaR (6)
Shoshin (6)
DeasVail (5)
Dunnstral (5)
Espeonage (4)
Fire Assassin (4)
Lovebird (3)
PenguinPower (2)
NicoRobin (1)
Pine (0)
Screenplay (0)
Vaxkiller (0)

(SCREENPLAY RANKINGS UNKNOWN)

VAXKILLER:
Nahdia (10)
Pine (10)
Vaxkiller (10)
Fire Assassin (9)
PenguinPower (8)
Punreader (7)
DeasVail (6)
Screenplay (6)
the worst (5)
Lovebird (5)
Espeonage (4)
Shoshin (4)
Chara (3)
Dunnstral (2)
NicoRobin (1)
TehBrawlGuy (0)
Taly (0)
MariaR (0)

PENGUINPOWER:
MariaR (10)
Dunnstral (10)
PenguinPower (10)
TehBrawlGuy (9)
DeasVail (8)
Espeonage (7)
the worst (6)
Vaxkiller (6)
Lovebird (5)
Screenplay (5)
Shoshin (4)
Fire Assassin (4)
Nahdia (3)
Pine (2)
NicoRobin (1)
Taly (0)
Punreader (0 * 2)
Chara (0)

NICOROBIN:
Espeonage (10 * 2)
Pine (10 * 2)
NicoRobin (10 * 2)
PenguinPower (9 * 2)
Chara (8 * 2)
Dunnstral (7 * 2)
Nahdia (6 * 2)
the worst (6 * 2)
Screenplay (5 * 2)
Vaxkiller (5 * 2)
MariaR (4 * 2)
DeasVail (4 * 2)
Taly (3 * 2)
TehBrawlGuy (2 * 2)
Lovebird (1 * 2)
Punreader (0 * 2 * 2)
Shoshin (0 * 2)
Fire Assassin (0 * 2)

Spoiler: CALCULATED SCORES (by ranking):
1. Chara:
9 10s
0 9s
2 8s
0 7s
3 6s
1 5
0 4s
1 3
0 2s
0 1s
0 0s

90 + 16 + 18 + 5 + 3 = 132
9 + 2 + 3 + 1 + 1 = 16
132 / 16 = ~8.25 average

2. Taly:
6 10s
2 9s
1 8
0 7s
0 6s
1 5
1 4
2 3s
1 2
1 1
1 0

60 + 18 + 8 + 5 + 4 + 6 + 2 + 1 = 104
6 + 2 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 2 + 1 + 1 = 16
104 / 16 = ~6.5 average

3. the worst:
1 10
3 9s
1 8
4 7s
2 6s
3 5s
0 4s
0 3s
1 2
0 1s
0 0s

10 + 27 + 8 + 28 + 12 + 15 + 2 = 102
1 + 3 + 1 + 4 + 2 + 3 + 1 = 16
102 / 16 = ~6.375 average

4. Nahdia:
4 10s
1 9
0 8s
1 7
3 6s
2 5s
3 4s
0 3s
0 2s
0 1s
2 0s

40 + 9 + 7 + 18 + 10 + 12 = 96
4 + 1 + 1 + 3 + 2 + 3 + 2 = 16
96 / 16 = ~6.00 average

5. TehBrawlGuy:
3 10s
2 9s
2 8s
0 7s
1 6
1 5
1 4
1 3
3 2s
0 1s
2 0s

30 + 18 + 16 + 6 + 5 + 4 + 3 + 6 = 88
3 + 2 + 2 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 2 + 3 = 16
88 / 16 = ~5.5 average

6. Espeonage:
4 10s
1 9
1 8
0 7s
2 6s
0 5s
2 4s
1 3
1 2
0 1s
3 0s

40 + 9 + 8 + 12 + 8 + 3 + 2 = 82
4 + 1 + 1 + 2 + 2 + 1 + 1 + 3 = 15
82 / 15 = ~5.47 average

7. DeasVail:
1 10
0 9s
0 8s
0 7s
5 6s
5 5s
4 4s
0 3s
0 2s
0 1s
0 0s

10 + 30 + 25 + 16 = 81
1 + 5 + 5 + 4 = 15
81 / 15 = ~5.4 average

8. Dunnstral:
2 10s
2 9s
0 8s
2 7s
1 6
2 5
1.5 4s
0 3s
4 2s
0 1s
0 0s

20 + 18 + 14 + 6 + 10 + 6 + 4 = 78
2 + 2 + 2 + 1 + 2 + 1.5 + 4 = 14.5
78 / 14.5 = ~5.38 average

9. Punreader:
6 10s
0 9s
1 8
2 7s
0 6s
2 5s
1 4
1 3
0 2s
0 * 2 1s (0 1s)
3 * 2 0s (6 0s)

60 + 8 + 14 + 10 + 4 + 3 = 99
6 + 1 + 2 + 2 + 1 + 1 + 6 = 19
99 / 19 = ~5.2 average

10. MariaR:
1 10
1 9
2 8s
0 7s
4 6s
1 5
2 4s
1 3
0 2s
0 1s
3 0s

10 + 9 + 16 + 24 + 5 + 8 + 3 = 75
1 + 1 + 2 + 4 + 1 + 2 + 1 + 3 = 15
75 / 15 = ~5 average

11. Shoshin:
1 10
0 9s
2 8s
2 7s
3 6s
0 5s
2 4s
3 3s
0 2s
0 1s
2 0s

10 + 16 + 14 + 18 + 8 + 9 = 75
1 + 2 + 2 + 3 + 2 + 3 + 2 = 15
75 / 15 = ~5 average

12. Pine:
5 10s
0 9s
0 8s
0 7s
0 6s
1 5
4.5 4s
0 3s
1 2
1 1
3 0s

50 + 5 + 18 + 2 + 1 = 76
5 + 1 + 4.5 + 1 + 1 + 3 = 15.5
76 / 15.5 = ~4.9 average

13. Fire Assassin:
2 10s
2 9s
1 8
2 5s
2 4s
1 3
1 2
2 1s
3 0s

20 + 18 + 8 + 10 + 8 + 3 + 2 + 2 = 71
2 + 2 + 1 + 2 + 2 + 1 + 1 + 2 + 3 = 16
71 / 15 = ~4.4375 average

14. PenguinPower:
1 10
2 9s
2 8s
1 7
1 6
1 5
.5 4s
0 3s
1 2
1 1
6 0s

10 + 10 + 18 + 7 + 6 + 5 + 2 + 2 + 1 = 69
1 + 2 + 2 + 1 + 1 + 1 + .5 + 1 + 1 + 6 = 16.5
69 / 16.5 = ~4.18 average

15. Screenplay:
0 10s
0 9s
0 8s
3 7s
4 6s
2 5s
0 4s
1 3
1 2
1 1
3 0s

21 + 24 + 10 + 3 + 2 + 1 = 61
3 + 4 + 2 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 3 = 15
61 / 15 = ~4.06 average

16. Vaxkiller:
2 10s
0 9s
0 8s
0 7s
1 6
3 5s
3 4s
0 3s
0 2s
1 1
5 0s

20 + 6 + 15 + 12 + 1 = 54
2 + 1 + 4 + 3 + 1 + 5 = 15
54 / 15 = ~3.6 average

17. NicoRobin:
2 10s
0 9s
0 8s
0 7s
0 6s
0 5s
2 4s
1 3
0 2s
3 1s
8 0s

20 + 8 + 3 + 3 = 34
2 + 2 + 1 + 3 + 8 = 16
34 / 16 = ~2.125 average

18. Lovebird:
0 10s
0 9s
0 8s
0 7s
0 6s
2 5s
0 4s
2 3s
1 2
6 1s
4 0s

10 + 6 + 2 + 6 = 24
2 + 2 + 1 + 6 + 4 = 15
24 / 15 = ~1.6 average
12. Pine: ~4.9 average (4 10s+1 unlisted bonus; 3 0s)
17. NicoRobin: ~2.125 average (1 10+1 unlisted bonus; 8 0s)
18. Lovebird: ~1.6 average (0 10s; 4 0s)

Compared to the actual scores:

LOVEBIRD (18):
1.78
No 10s
4 0s

NICOROBIN (17):
2.06
1 10
8 0s

PINE (12):
4.67
10 4s
3 0s

We have the right ranks now, and NicoRobin's score is closer to the mark, but there's a greater disparity between Pine's theoretical score and actual score. (He's got a higher calculated score than his actual score.)
Let me give an Alternative perspective.
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Post Post #1316 (isolation #50) » Sun Jun 24, 2018 5:42 pm

Post by Punreader »

In post 1270, the worst wrote:how is PP obvscum
I can help you with that.
Spoiler: Look here
In post 303, Punreader wrote:Free preview:
In post 285, TehBrawlGuy wrote:PP's last post makes me feel that PP v Taly is not TvT. Dunno which one is the Scum yet, though. I'll catch that on re-read.
It is far from a surefire thing given I have limited experience with both players, but from what I know this is fairly standard Taly play and not what I'd expect from PenguinPower if he were town. This would not be something I'd state with any level of true confidence, but it has enough where I'll back your sentiment.
In post 552, Punreader wrote:
PenguinPower:
No need for me to explain my read here. I can simply recycle what I said on him before.
In post 473, Punreader wrote: PenguinPower had an incredibly town entrance, which was natural; there was absolutely nothing artificial or fake in his opening. This earned him the spot as my penultimate townread. Since then, there has been a perfect blend of being lighthearted and scumhunting; he's neither fluff posted nor been super serious. That is exactly what I would expect of him as town. Pending some major change, my townread there is never shifting its strength.
In post 964, Punreader wrote:
In post 892, PenguinPower wrote:I have no feelings on Titus right now. I am very skeptical of people who town read me D1 (outside a very small set of players), especially when they don't provide a reason as to why they town read me when asked.
I provided my reasoning.
In post 473, Punreader wrote:
In post 456, Jingle wrote:I'll bite the bait though, tell me about this PP read.
I already did; you should have paid attention the first time.
In post 294, Punreader wrote:
In post 28, PenguinPower wrote:Yea, but...I'm policy lynching...uh....
Power to you, my friend. I believe you have no place in a penitentiary.
PenguinPower had an incredibly town entrance, which was natural; there was absolutely nothing artificial or fake in his opening. This earned him the spot as my penultimate townread. Since then, there has been a perfect blend of being lighthearted and scumhunting; he's neither fluff posted nor been super serious. That is exactly what I would expect of him as town. Pending some major change, my townread there is never shifting its strength.
This still holds. I am quite positive you have been scumhunting and you yourself know that to be true. If you want me to point out the more 'lighthearted' content, I can.
Except this game, just invert it; PenguinPower's entrance this game was incredibly stilted. His posting this game has been entirely super-serious; he is altogether missing the lighthearted aspect. His focus has been too much on mechanics and not enough on punhunting. Add in that the role he claimed is literally a pun role, and he is a solid punread.
In post 703, Punreader wrote:
In post 555, Nahdia wrote:I think their being stilted is pretty well excused by there being no votes. I think their progression towards and the way they claimed came off as town.
I very strongly do not think a lack of votes justifies being stilted. It is an excuse for slacking off, nothing more, especially given that the mod announced from the onset a willingness to track the votes even though they hold no weight. Check . That is Errantparabola's first votecount; the precedence for voting had already been established.

PenguinPower's complaint . Check the timestamps as well. Errantparabola's post 100 has no edit mark. That means it was not edited at a later date. That means it was made on Monday, June 4th; PenguinPower's post complaining was on Wednesday, June 6th. The moderator was
already providing a service that PenguinPower was complaining about a lack of
. His complaint was thus an excuse. Nothing more; the stilted nature of his entrance cannot be reasonably explained by it.

Furthermore, the progression of his claim is the opposite of town. He didn't immediately counter my claim. It was only when players began to show suspicion of his contributions to the game that he provided his claim. When that claim proved to make things worse rather than better, he fullclaimed. He knew he was getting in trouble, and was hoping the truth would make him look better.

This was one of the contributing factors in my decision to fullclaim. PenguinPower's claim progression was meant to protect him from being voted off N1...and if I didn't realclaim, he'd have gotten away with it because people like you were buying it.
In post 709, Punreader wrote:
In post 700, PenguinPower wrote:I'm certain that he half claimed, then admitted to lying about his claim, then added a N1 modifier after being asked to vig me.
This is a fine narrative but one which fails to live up to reality.

I indicated from the onset that I was not claiming fully. I said from the beginning that my bulletproof was not as strong as indicated. I said there was a second condition. I said I wasn't claiming fully. I said that if I claimed fully, it would make sense, but that it would be detrimental for me to have done so. I laid this all out at the beginning; I was quite clear about the nature of my claim.

When I claimed my actual role, I outlined the nature of it. I made no such claim about having that modifier. I stated that I couldn't vig N1, not that I had a modifier stating I can't vig, because my role PM doesn't indicate it at all; it is simply self-evident from the nature of the claim. My vig works off of ranking. I can't vig someone when we don't have a ranking. Ranking is done N1. Thus, I cannot vig N1.
In post 781, Punreader wrote:
In post 745, TehBrawlGuy wrote:I get that apparently the thread has something against mechanics, but holy shit you guys, there's one major difference between this and a standard game. How hard is it to keep track of that
one thing
?
This would be one of the reasons that the players using that one mechanic as an excuse to do nothing (namely, PenguinPower and Pine) are pun.

This game is not nearly as different from a normal game of mafia as they are pretending it to be. Their excuses for not generating content due to said mechanic are therefore nothing more than that: just excuses to not be held accountable for content early in the game. This would also be one of the reasons I consider you a punbuddy, since by your own logic, you should recognize that this:
In post 748, TehBrawlGuy wrote:I really don't get Pine being pretty low on rankings. I weakly townread him. Most of his content is NAI and what there is seems to me like a townie who's just chilling waiting for the game to progress.
...Is an invalid reason to townread him. There is no justification for chilling because
the game is already in progress
.

Pretending the game isn't in progress is a pun-oriented narrative because
as you yourself note
, there is only one difference between this game and a normal game. So players in this game should be...treating it as if it were a normal game; the players who thus are stating they aren't doing so are automatically more suspicious.
In post 795, Punreader wrote:
In post 794, TehBrawlGuy wrote:I think you draw a couple of wrong conclusions here. First off, although there's only one mechanical change, that doesn't mean the ramifications of it on the gamestate are simple. It means, among other things, that it's a lot harder to really be engaged in D1 because there aren't traditional wagons/voting.
And yet the moderator is still tracking votes as if there were traditional wagons/voting. If the moderator were not providing that service, this would be more of a valid point, but he
is
.

Additionally, the addition of the rating mechanic actually gives something
better
than traditional wagons/voting.

Players can create rankings lists, should they so choose, which give data points on multiple players rather than just one.
You can also look in here:
In post 730, Punreader wrote:
Spoiler: Understanding of my Stances
In post 303, Punreader wrote:Free preview:
In post 285, TehBrawlGuy wrote:PP's last post makes me feel that PP v Taly is not TvT. Dunno which one is the Scum yet, though. I'll catch that on re-read.
It is far from a surefire thing given I have limited experience with both players, but from what I know this is fairly standard Taly play and not what I'd expect from PenguinPower if he were town. This would not be something I'd state with any level of true confidence, but it has enough where I'll back your sentiment.
This still holds. In the PenguinPower-Taly exchange, PenguinPower plays exactly to what I'd expect of his punplay, and Taly comes out looking incredibly town from the fight.
In post 370, Punreader wrote:
TOWNIE TENS:

Chara

EAGER EIGHTS:

Taly
Dunnstral
ActionDan

SOLID SIXES:

Shoshin
MariaR
Espeonage

FINICKY FIVES:

the worst
Fire Assassin
DeasVail
Vaxkiller

UNFORTUNATE FOURS:

NicoRobin
ReubenWasFine

IN-BETWEEN THREES:

Srceenplay

TERRIBLE TWOS:

TehBrawlGuy
PenguinPower

ZOMBIFY THESE ZEROES:

Pine/TwoInAMillion
Here I post my readslist, and deliver the promise that reasons will come in 24 hours. (As it turned out, I finished 23 hours later.)
In post 534, Punreader wrote:Since then, PenguinPower has become a zero, but I will detail that later; otherwise, this remains unchanged and is my reference point.

I'll begin by stating, most of my reads come from meta combined with motivations: what I expect to see as either alignment. I can do this for almost the entire playerlist to some extent, but some of these reads are going to have a stronger base than others. With that established...

Chara:
My Chara townread comes primarily from having many games' experience with it. I hesitate to Chare my past experience (as my meta comes from first-hand exposure, linking to examples would be traceable to my main), but the Chararal Chist of it is that Chara always Chows a strong aptitude for forwarding a town wincon. (Okay I'll stop that now.) When Chara is town, it demonstrates this by providing a transparent thought process where its reasoning can be traced, step by step, from beginning to end. This trait, in of itself, isn't town, but what amplifies it is the consistency and the delivery of it. It's not only the process itself, but the content therein. While Chara is not an elite punhunter, Chara's process still provides reasonable town positions to hold.

This is not something Chara can fake convincingly. You can always tell Chara is town by it demonstrating the genuine attempt to game solve, furthering the town wincon in the process. In spite of Chara not being an elite punhunter, in its own way, you can still hold a certain burden of proficiency to it; if Chara's stances don't seem reasonable positions to hold, then it could be pun. However, Chara's content this game
does
show reasonable stances, with reasonable justifications. I follow the process, even if I don't fully agree with it. I agree with more than I don't, and understand how Chara is getting from point A to point B. All of this strongly suggests town.

Taly:
If you Tally his posts, it should be immediately obvious why I hold this read. He has the highest post count in this game by far, and in those posts, constantly, neverending, there is content where he explains his reads, justifies his stances, asks questions, and engages players. Not in of itself enough to be town because tryhard pun is a thing, but when you look at the nature of the content it becomes clear he isn't just doing "busywork". His content builds off of itself; he follows through on the content, and when his stances change, there is a logical progression in the shift.

When he presents posts, he does so without an attempt to force us to wolf it down. This violetly aggressive pushing shows a desire to work with others in a way difficult, but not quite impossible, to fake. He is similar to Chara in this regard, but I don't have the same level of familiarity with him to be as confident on my read here as I do on Chara.

Dunnstral:
I may have been a little hasty in having him this high, but I feel this is his town game off of what little he has provided. Admittedly, he lurks as both alignments but initial signs point to town.

Nahdia/ActionDan:
This read comes from ActionDan, obviously. ActionDan didn't contribute much before leaving the game, but what he did give was enough to make me instantly feel this is his towngame. When ActionDan is town, I expect his reads to be fairly competent, and also to have some level of synchronization with mine. He was suspicious of Screenplay before even I was, and also noted suspicion on TehBrawlGuy well before the thought crossed my mind. Does this mean his reads are right, of course not, but the fact he saw the same slots I see as suspect before I did is an instantly promising sign. His analysis of Espeonage is fairly good as well, and I thought his position on Chara/Deas was indicative of solid, critical thinking of a type difficult to fake as pun.

However, the lack of overall activity and his natural competency as a pun player keep this from being a read I would more strongly Act on. Counterbalancing that, given he was replaced I'd say that isn't Danning at all, so I may be promoting Nahdia's slot.

Shoshin:
Shoshin is one of the players in this game I am least-familiar with, so I can't speak about her with any meta-based experience. However, just off of her play, I felt that her content was indicative of town solving. and are comments that could come from pun, but I lean town on. Many of the directions she's headed have felt like good ones; I've liked the inquiries in posts such as , , , , , , , , , , and . There's good analysis in . However, I'm a little concerned that a great amount of what she has done doesn't appear to have much follow-through to it. This is mitigated by the times I can see it (for instance, the continued Screenplay push), but there are many times where I don't see her evolution in process, keeping me from promoting her. Shoshi's reasonably town, yet not locktown.

MariaR:
I have extensive experience with Maria. I'm not at the point where I can soulread her (not even remotely close), but I still have a reasonable baseline for what she'll be like as town, and initial signs are promising. However, this is not something I can lock in because the best ally in reading her is time we've not had; you never know, something might Mar my Rid there later.

Espeonage:
I don't actually have a good ability to read Espeonage even though I've spied on plenty of his games before. He's a little difficult to pin down; a fair amount of his content
has
made me question him, but he always ninjas his way out by the end. It's mostly the little things which give him this rating; I liked his lighthearted banter seen in such places as , balanced nicely by more serious gamesolving. Many of his prods have felt good, yet this boon is ruined by the conclusions reached from them; his stated reads are, by and large, backwards from what I would expect. Espeonage is reasonably competent, yet all the players I'm suspicious of (Pine, PenguinPower, TehBrawlGuy, Screenplay) are players he's giving passes for whatever reason, even if he had genuine inquiries.

the worst:
Another player I can't reliably read, albeit in part owing to lack of extensive experience. the worst case scenario would be him as pun, but I don't have any reason to suspect he is. He doesn't particularly make me feel town, but lacking a reason to punread him, he may actually be worthy of promotion.

Fire Assassin:
Though I have the experience necessary to meta read Fire Assassin
in theory
, in practice I simply don't know what I'm doing with him and pretending I do would be detrimental. I have no clue what to look for; I have no tells on him; I don't know what indicates he's town or pun. I can tell you overall on his play alone, the content he has produced hasn't been a Sin, but if there is a strong town Fire, I've yet to see it lit. If I had to make a call, it would be town, but I would do so with no confidence whatsoever.

This is the midway point in my reads, and unfortunately I need to take a break to attend to something which came up, so this makes a good stopping point.
Here I give my basic process, outlining that my read on PenguinPower has strengthened from punread to STRONG punread. I lay out the groundwork for the top half of my readslist, which can loosely be thought of as my townreads.
In post 552, Punreader wrote:
DeasVail:
DeasVail is an incredibly talented pun player, and nothing he has done is out of his punrange. In fact, a fair amount of his content is actually the sort I'd expect if he were pun. For the longest time, he was
lower
in my readslist. What actually bumped him up was, in fact, when he gave
his
reads in . His Intervention was an incredible step in the right direction.

Though it's not impossible for him to distance/bus and it's a certainty my reads are far from perfect (and thus, that he could be pun that pushes town players I'm punreading), the significant overlap in reads and his explanation of his process all the same was enough to remove him from the lower half of my reads. Altogether, while he has a permanent Vail preventing me from putting him much higher, he is still someone I'd say is more likely town than not.

Vaxkiller:
Vaxkiller also has gone on a rollercoaster in my reads, from a six to a four before I settled on five. To some extent, he Vaxes me; I don't have a reliable way of reading his contribution. However, some of his pushes, while containing some...questionable...reasoning, look like they are genuinely going in the right direction. Not a killer-strong read, but enough that I want to keep him in the game longer.

NicoRobin:
Nico's not reacting in the way I would expect her to if she were town, but I want to wait longer before committing to this, because she also lurks/flakes plenty as town and this could be one of those times. If she does the thing I am expecting her to do as either alignment, I'll have a better handle on her.

ReubenWasFine:
There isn't much here and I have no game experience with Reuben, but Reuben's contributions to this game have been...lackluster. Not condemning, but certainly not endearing.

Screenplay:
Screenplay's contribution this game on the other hand have been somewhat indicative of pun. He is also fairly lackluster, but the difference is I have the experience with him to know that if he were town he
shouldn't
be. None of his contributions in this game have been even remotely endearing, and yet I've seen plenty of content sending up red flags, as early as . was hollow as well, with no purpose behind it. His reads such as in are opposite what they should be, and he is someone who I respect as a punhunter. Being on vacation feels like more of an excuse than anything else; he is posting plenty, he is reading everything (both of these are self-evident if you look at his iso), and yet in spite of this he is doing virtually nothing.

TehBrawlGuy:
This is another player I don't have much experience with, but his posting has continued to get worse. I'm having trouble explaining this one at the moment, so I'll try to tackle him in a separate post.

PenguinPower:
No need for me to explain my read here. I can simply recycle what I said on him before.
In post 473, Punreader wrote: PenguinPower had an incredibly town entrance, which was natural; there was absolutely nothing artificial or fake in his opening. This earned him the spot as my penultimate townread. Since then, there has been a perfect blend of being lighthearted and scumhunting; he's neither fluff posted nor been super serious. That is exactly what I would expect of him as town. Pending some major change, my townread there is never shifting its strength.
In post 964, Punreader wrote:
In post 892, PenguinPower wrote:I have no feelings on Titus right now. I am very skeptical of people who town read me D1 (outside a very small set of players), especially when they don't provide a reason as to why they town read me when asked.
I provided my reasoning.
In post 473, Punreader wrote:
In post 456, Jingle wrote:I'll bite the bait though, tell me about this PP read.
I already did; you should have paid attention the first time.
In post 294, Punreader wrote:
In post 28, PenguinPower wrote:Yea, but...I'm policy lynching...uh....
Power to you, my friend. I believe you have no place in a penitentiary.
PenguinPower had an incredibly town entrance, which was natural; there was absolutely nothing artificial or fake in his opening. This earned him the spot as my penultimate townread. Since then, there has been a perfect blend of being lighthearted and scumhunting; he's neither fluff posted nor been super serious. That is exactly what I would expect of him as town. Pending some major change, my townread there is never shifting its strength.
This still holds. I am quite positive you have been scumhunting and you yourself know that to be true. If you want me to point out the more 'lighthearted' content, I can.
Except this game, just invert it; PenguinPower's entrance this game was incredibly stilted. His posting this game has been entirely super-serious; he is altogether missing the lighthearted aspect. His focus has been too much on mechanics and not enough on punhunting. Add in that the role he claimed is literally a pun role, and he is a solid punread.

Pine:
I described the threefold reasons for this read briefly before.
In post 525, Punreader wrote:Pine, the short version is that this is Pine transparently being a punfuck. I am intimately familiar with his meta as both alignments and I guarantee you his contribution this game is him as pun. I can cite multiple behavioral tells to this effect, from what content he is giving, what reads he has given, to the ways he has given it and I will do precisely that in the full version. He had no clue he was playing with
me
, so he didn't properly hide his tells that give him away to me.
The way Pine gave his content was in his posting gimmick. Pine was giving his reads through the "hey Errant got really drunk and slipped in discord..." method. The mod may have told him to stop, but without the mod intervening there, he would have continued to use that gimmick for the whole game.

I can cite multiple references to this, but most famously would in fact be Civilization, something Nahdia should be all too aware of. Pine uses gimmicks to mask his pun content, as a way of hiding in plain sight. They have served him well in the past, acting as a way to engage others in an entertaining manner but also lead to them underestimating him.

Prior to the gimmick, which brings me to the first point, Pine was contributing nothing. This was part of where the punread originated. Pine willingly replaced into the game. What did he do after replacing in? Nothing. Pine replaced in at , page 7, on June 5th.
Pine's first content was , a singular line on PenguinPower echoing thread consensus (more on that when we get to point two), but his first full contribution is , page 19, on June 9th.

He has given no reasons for his reads. (The gimmick also helps to serve mask a lack of reasons.) And he has given reads on only a small fraction of the players in the game. And he has done nothing since choosing to replace in. I know Pine, and while he may adamantly deny it, as pun he is a lurker, both in the sense of not posting often and actively lurking a fair amount of the time he posts.

Were he town, he would have upon replacing in done his absolute best to give content in spite of having not read the game. Pine replacing in as town needs not have read the whole game to contribute opinions, but the Pine of this game did nothing...except for, when he did go with his gimmicky reads, defend the players in the game most likely to be pun.

Why is that condemning?

Because Pine is the strongest anti-busser pun player on the site. He will distance. He'll even vote a punbuddy. He might 'bus' in the sense that he'll pine after a punbuddy who makes sense to push but given the slightest excuse he'll abort it if he sees an opportunity to let the punbuddy live. And he sees opportunities even where by all rights none
should
be. By that I mean he sees a chance to abort a bus where other players insist to continue one.

This is particularly pertinent given PenguinPower. If you assume PenguinPower is pun, then is perfect distancing. Given the first opportunity, . And his other noteworthy townread? . The two players in the game aside from Pine, most likely to be pun, and Pine townreads them.

His approach this game has been pun. His content this game has been pun. This is, 100% guaranteed to be his pungame. He would never have played this way if he had known I was in the game, but since he was unaware of my presence, he thought that this strategy would go unnoticed.
Here I go into extensive detail about the bottom half of my reads, wherein you can see my punreads. In particular, I write multiple paragraphs outlining precisely why I feel Pine and PenguinPower in particular are pun.
In post 680, Punreader wrote:
In post 672, Pine wrote:Protected from people below them, kills people ranked higher. That screams “self-aligned” to me.

I’m not opposed to leashing it.
That role sure WOULD be perfect for 3p, but unfortunately for your attempted narrative, it is not the role I claimed.
Pine was misrepresenting the nature of the role I claimed, which if left unchallenged would have led to support of the 3p narrative, allowing him to get away with diverting discussion away from punhunting and onto mechanics.
In post 703, Punreader wrote:
In post 567, Shoshin wrote:
In post 552, Punreader wrote:Vaxkiller: Vaxkiller also has gone on a rollercoaster in my reads, from a six to a four before I settled on five. To some extent, he Vaxes me; I don't have a reliable way of reading his contribution. However, some of his pushes, while containing some...questionable...reasoning, look like they are genuinely going in the right direction. Not a killer-strong read, but enough that I want to keep him in the game longer.
This "rollercoaster from a six to a four to a five" feels fake.
Do you want me to do a Post By Post Analysis of Vaxkiller to prove what I mean? I kid you not, I can and will do it to show
precisely
why he has gone up and down and all around on my reads list.
In post 706, Punreader wrote:
In post 631, Vaxkiller wrote:
In post 567, Shoshin wrote:
In post 552, Punreader wrote:Vaxkiller: Vaxkiller also has gone on a rollercoaster in my reads, from a six to a four before I settled on five. To some extent, he Vaxes me; I don't have a reliable way of reading his contribution. However, some of his pushes, while containing some...questionable...reasoning, look like they are genuinely going in the right direction. Not a killer-strong read, but enough that I want to keep him in the game longer.
This "rollercoaster from a six to a four to a five" feels fake.
Workin my way backwards, but yeah this confuses me as well. I'm a roller coaster but i Vex him, I push some, but something i do are questionable.. I look genuine, but not a strong read. I mean it dont get more wishy washy than that.
Vaxkiller, I realize English is not your first language, but perhaps you should look up the idiomatic expression like a roller coaster.

"Wishy-washy" is
precisely the definition of the expression
.
Yes you have gone up, yes you have gone down. Yes, you have things I like, yes you have things I don't like. That is precisely what I said my read on you was: uncertain, varying, constantly changing and shifting.
In post 568, Shoshin wrote:I also don't like how Pun's rankings -- 10, 8, 8, 8, 6, 6, 6, 5, 5, 5, 5, 4, 4, 3, 2, 2, 0 -- don't match up to the actual rankings -- 10, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 6, 5, 5, 4, 4, 3, 2, 1, 0, 0, 0 -- seems like a very unnatural way to think about the game if you're actually trying to sort reads into a meaningful rankings list.
Your mistake is in thinking it's a
rankings
list.

It is not.

It is a
reads
list. Strongest town, strong town, weak town, various shades of null, potential pun, slight pun, pun, STRONG pun, approximately.

Read it again with that understanding and you will have a much better handling on where I am coming from.
In post 554, Srceenplay wrote:
In post 552, Punreader wrote:Screenplay: Screenplay's contribution this game on the other hand have been somewhat indicative of pun. He is also fairly lackluster, but the difference is I have the experience with him to know that if he were town he shouldn't be. None of his contributions in this game have been even remotely endearing, and yet I've seen plenty of content sending up red flags, as early as 106. 108 was hollow as well, with no purpose behind it. His reads such as in 177 are opposite what they should be, and he is someone who I respect as a punhunter. Being on vacation feels like more of an excuse than anything else; he is posting plenty, he is reading everything (both of these are self-evident if you look at his iso), and yet in spite of this he is doing virtually nothing.
I’m not sure who you are but this is bullshit. You have went way down on my list.
If it were bullshit as you say, then you'd be able to explain why it was bullshit. You're not as incompetent/lackluster as you are pretending to be.
In post 555, Nahdia wrote:I think their being stilted is pretty well excused by there being no votes. I think their progression towards and the way they claimed came off as town.
I very strongly do not think a lack of votes justifies being stilted. It is an excuse for slacking off, nothing more, especially given that the mod announced from the onset a willingness to track the votes even though they hold no weight. Check . That is Errantparabola's first votecount; the precedence for voting had already been established.

PenguinPower's complaint . Check the timestamps as well. Errantparabola's post 100 has no edit mark. That means it was not edited at a later date. That means it was made on Monday, June 4th; PenguinPower's post complaining was on Wednesday, June 6th. The moderator was
already providing a service that PenguinPower was complaining about a lack of
. His complaint was thus an excuse. Nothing more; the stilted nature of his entrance cannot be reasonably explained by it.

Furthermore, the progression of his claim is the opposite of town. He didn't immediately counter my claim. It was only when players began to show suspicion of his contributions to the game that he provided his claim. When that claim proved to make things worse rather than better, he fullclaimed. He knew he was getting in trouble, and was hoping the truth would make him look better.

This was one of the contributing factors in my decision to fullclaim. PenguinPower's claim progression was meant to protect him from being voted off N1...and if I didn't realclaim, he'd have gotten away with it because people like you were buying it.
Here I respond to the people who responded to where I explain my reads. I offer to show in greater detail, a post by post take on Vaxkiller as to why my read there has shifted so much. I clarify that I am not producing rankings lists, but READS lists. I then go on the offensive, both by pressuring Screenplay, and by outlining why PenguinPower is pun.
In post 707, Punreader wrote:
In post 662, Chara wrote:i want to say Pine is scum, but i'm finding it difficult to rationalize what scum Pine's plan is this game, at all.
I already outlined it. Pine's team this game has some reasonable distancing, but is largely playing the same game: lackluster posting, lurking, and not contributing much. Giving the bare minimum to pass by, not drawing attention. Letting the active posters duke it out in town V town fighting, and subtly supporting this from the background. Focusing on mechanics talk rather than punhunting, for cheap towncred while avoiding giving hard stances that are difficult to back out of.

Is this an original plan? Why no, no it isn't. Is it a "boring" plan? Why yes, yes it is; it is thoroughly uninspired. Why doesn't that disqualify it from being Pine's plan? Because Pine is incredibly pragmatic and opportunistic. If he sees an opening to use a strategy, it doesn't matter how boring/unoriginal it is. He'll use it anyway because a plan which is boring yet practical is a more surefire way to win the game. He doesn't need to make flashy maneuvers. Flashy maneuvers are Pine's desperation moves, when he is backed into a corner.

The most unorthodox part of Pine's pun stratagem lies in his nightkills, something we haven't witnessed yet. His dayplay is not something very creative as he has no need to shift gears from the plan he knows will work, until something (like a player who is on an alt that secretly has loads of experience with him he was unaware of) throws a wrench in the plan. And he doesn't even enact that until the last possible moment; if he thinks he can salvage his original plan, at every opportunity, he will.

I can cite Turn of Camn as the most fresh example of this; at every point he was adamantly against altering the plan to account for Ellibereth, until he was given no choice. You were there so you should know precisely what I am talking about. Pine's play is his textbook punplay this game. He hasn't shifted gears yet because he still holds hope his plan will work, so it's still on display for all to see.
Here I explain what Pine's pungame is, and why his plan this game is it.
In post 708, Punreader wrote:
In post 673, Dunnstral wrote:Pine is scummy on this page
Immensely so, and it is proof of the concept I am referring to.

He is shifting focus away from punhunting, and onto theory discussion. Theory discussion has the benefit of looking town and can offer him immediate towncred, while also distracting the town because theory discussion bears no ACTUAL alignment relevance.
Here I bring up by proxy examples of the behavior I am citing from Pine which are his pungame, and explaining why they are indicative of him being pun.
In post 709, Punreader wrote:
In post 700, PenguinPower wrote:I'm certain that he half claimed, then admitted to lying about his claim, then added a N1 modifier after being asked to vig me.
This is a fine narrative but one which fails to live up to reality.
This was a proxy-callout of the punteam. Pine, TehBrawlGuy, and PenguinPower have all taken similar stances on the nature of my role, as if there were a discussion behind closed doors.

Since I know that's not a neighborhood with daychat, there's only one option that comes to mind.
In post 712, Punreader wrote:
In post 711, Punreader wrote:
In post 705, Srceenplay wrote:
In post 703, Punreader wrote:If it were bullshit as you say, then you'd be able to explain why it was bullshit. You're not as incompetent/lackluster as you are pretending to be.
That’s bull shit as well because you would know that I am incompetent at explaining.
No, you claim you are but you're not. You explain things better than you are pretending. Furthermore, you actually
try
to explain things. You don't leave things as empty statements; you still explain in spite of the "incompetence" at explaining.

I know this in part because I have a similar perspective as pun; I underestimate my own competency as town and pretend I am a worse town player than I actually am, and
this
is what I am saying you are doing. You are stating you are incompetent when I know for a fact you are not actually that incompetent. You likely have a self-perception you're not that incompetent, and thus as pun you "mute" your own competency.

Perhaps I am not explaining this as well as I should, but I feel my message gets across. There is a disconnect between the level of skill I have witnessed from you when you've been town, and the level of skill you are displaying in this game. That disconnect most likely originates from a perception of "I'm not a good town player, so I need to pretend I'm not a good player", leading to you as pun being less competent than you should be.
Another way of stating this:
I do not believe you're lying about thinking it's bullshit.
I do not believe you
think
you're lying about being incompetent.
I believe you fully
think
that you're incompetent as town.
But I believe that perception is flawed, and that you're
not actually incompetent as town in spite of believing you're incompetent as town
.
And
due to this flawed perception, as pun you act incompetently
.
Which introduces the disconnect.
Here I engage Screenplay and go into greater detail as to why I am punreading him.
In post 729, Punreader wrote:
In post 724, Nahdia wrote:i feel like scum is lurking pretty hard rn.
Then you should rate Pine 0 and give a low rating to Screenplay.
Here I directly call Pine and Screenplay lurkers, as the most blatant examples.
That's the most important takeaways from my content.
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Post Post #1513 (isolation #51) » Wed Jun 27, 2018 5:42 pm

Post by Punreader »

In post 1317, the worst wrote:Idk how to calculate your average exactly though.
I included the math in the spoiler.

You total the amount of points each player received.
You total the amount of votes each player received. (Some players received more, by virtue of their scores being known or in my case, zeros and ones being doubled.)
You divide the amount of points each player received by the amount of votes each player received to get their average.

I'm not 100% certain this was the method utilized, but it is the method I'd most strongly suspect as it's simple and intuitive to handle.
In post 1332, Taly wrote:
Pun
, can you give me your thoughts on
Fire/Maria
?
I could see any combination of town-town, pun-pun, town-pun, or pun-town as possible. I can tell you on play I am not punreading MariaR, which would make it slightly more likely it's town-town or pun-town, but this is not locked in. Regardless of their alignment, however, correct play is to let both live and gather more results.

After all, if both are town then pun can't let both go unchecked.
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Post Post #1514 (isolation #52) » Wed Jun 27, 2018 5:53 pm

Post by Punreader »

In post 1399, Vaxkiller wrote:@punreader
Whats your read on thebrawlguy/deasvail/theworst?
People seem to think that just because players have posted, the information from those new posts should always change a read. While that is certainly true of certain circumstances, you would be sorely mistaken if you thought that the content we have seen generated would shift any of my reads significantly as 90% of it is what I'd define as worthless.

My read on them hasn't changed, because nothing they have posted has shifted my stance on them since the last time I shared:
In post 370, Punreader wrote:
FINICKY FIVES:

the worst
DeasVail

TERRIBLE TWOS:

TehBrawlGuy
Since then, I have stated the worst is worthy of promotion to a six (light townread), but his position on the readslist doesn't shift at all even given that; he's still right between MariaR (originally Espeonage but Espeonage is promoted to ten on the grounds of being a cop innocent) and Fire Assassin.

The largest possible influence on my reads right now would be either a claim or a lynch; I don't foresee anything changing my stances aside from one of those two.
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Post Post #1515 (isolation #53) » Wed Jun 27, 2018 5:57 pm

Post by Punreader »

In post 1454, ManWithNoName wrote:10. Srceenplay
10. Taly
10. TheBrawlGuy
9. Chara
8. Shoshin
7. The Worst
6. vaxkiller
6. Dunnstral
5. Fire Assassin
5. Nahdia
4. pine
4. pun reader
3. lovebird
2. nico
1. mariar
0. deasvail
0. espe
0. PP
I will compile this tomorrow and see how it alters the final scores.

I would like to state however:
In post 1455, ManWithNoName wrote:You know what, I've been thinking about it, and I cannot see a reason not to claim my role at this point.

I am Psyche, the message facilitator. During the night phase, I choose two people to get prompts to send a short message to each other along with the scores that they gave each other. Or, at least I'm pretty sure it's to each other, I'm still awaiting definite clarification on that aspect.

Both the people chosen by Screenplay last night are still alive, and I would have probably gone with one who was more likely to be voted out and one who was unlikely to be voted out, but that's just me.
This sounds like a punclaim to me.
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Post Post #1516 (isolation #54) » Wed Jun 27, 2018 6:01 pm

Post by Punreader »

In post 1456, TehBrawlGuy wrote:It would almost definitely fail if I were mafia and boosted by my teammates.
We know the rankings given are fairly accurate to the scores we know; as a result, it can be deduced players were almost certainly honest about their rankings.

Thus, no player claimed to boost you that did not actually boost you.

It did not escape my attention how many players have boosted you and when I recompile the data tomorrow I'm going to be taking a look at precisely that.
In post 1467, Shoshin wrote:Screen's rankings feel pretty townie to me.
Quite the opposite to me.
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Post Post #1517 (isolation #55) » Wed Jun 27, 2018 6:03 pm

Post by Punreader »

In post 1485, Taly wrote:On second thought, I don't want another replacement to muddy the waters here.
VOTE: Nahdia
Speaking as a player who specializes in turning punread town slots into strong townreads.

I do.

Especially when the Nahdia wagon reeks of being a pun counterwagon to the PenguinPower wagon.
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Post Post #1788 (isolation #56) » Fri Jun 29, 2018 9:48 am

Post by Punreader »

In post 1554, the worst wrote:I think im suffering from Too Many Townreads actually
It happens.
The answer is to cross the bridge later. Focus on the players you're not townreading. When everyone you're not townreading is dead, you'll presumably have had pun flips. And from the pun flips, you can then further revisit your previous townreads and see which of them were justified and which of them, given the new information you have available, were mistaken.

In other words, you cannot expect read perfection until you have more flips than we currently possess.
In post 1526, Taly wrote:
In post 1517, Punreader wrote:
In post 1485, Taly wrote:On second thought, I don't want another replacement to muddy the waters here.
VOTE: Nahdia
Speaking as a player who specializes in turning punread town slots into strong townreads. I do. Especially when the Nahdia wagon reeks of being a pun counterwagon to the PenguinPower wagon.
And speaking as a player who's lost town games before due to waffling over scum-slots that have had 2+ replacements in them
I'd rather not.
But if you have a case for that slot or reason why we should wait, then I want to hear it. Plus, I don't get your scumread on
MNWW
.
I can answer this, but it will be without any semblance of tact or diplomacy:
If you punread a slot correctly and then change that read due to a replacement in the slot, the fault lies in
you
, not the replacement. (It's a little more ambiguous if you townread a slot correctly and then change that read due to a replacement in the slot; I'd lean towards the fault lying more on the replacement, but not ALL on the replacement.)

If you punread a slot incorrectly and then change that read due to a replacement in the slot, then the replacement was worth obtaining.

If you punread a slot correctly and then the replacement reinforces that read, you then have further evidence to support your case for lynching them.

In every scenario, there is nothing inherently bad about waiting for a slot to be replaced, whereas there is significant chance of good to come from it particularly given that statistically speaking, you are more likely to be wrong than right in punreads (there's more town than pun in a game).

The case against the slot did not resonate with me at all, and felt like a huge stretch; the slot is a townread based off of my experience with both occupants of it. This is the play I'd expect both from ActionDan as town, and from Nahdia as town.

As far as Man With No Name goes, the punread there is due to him inheriting the slot of Screenplay.
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Post Post #1790 (isolation #57) » Fri Jun 29, 2018 9:56 am

Post by Punreader »

In post 1640, Taly wrote:
-
Acknowledge and dislike the fact that
Pun
shits out a bunch of content only to disappear for the next 2-3 days
This is easily shown to be site-wide, and you'll be seeing another such disappearance this weekend. This is indicative not of my alignment but of my life. Those disappearances are not strategic; they are simply me playing during the times I can play and not playing during the times I cannot.

This is not a new trend; it is a trend which has been there the whole game and also a trend which you can look into my previously completed game on this account (mhsmith's mini theme with the cops) and confirm was present there just as much (if not stronger; mhsmith almost force-replaced me at one point because of my misunderstanding regarding prod rules).
In post 1627, Chara wrote:side note: Maria may have been right about Nahdia. sorry Shepard. if you're town though, i promise i'll figure it out.
Chara, are you aware of who Commander Shepherd's main is? I know who he is and I can tell you this is par for the course.
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Post Post #1791 (isolation #58) » Fri Jun 29, 2018 10:04 am

Post by Punreader »

In post 1682, Taly wrote:I'm highly suspect of
Fire
at this point
Suspect him all you want.

He is objectively a terrible lynch today because we have two cop claims; if both
are
town (and yes I realize people doubt this but it is not impossible), then pun's only option is to deal with them during the night, lest they both produce more results.

I am telling you now that if we lynch Fire Assassin today and he flips town the entire punteam will be on that wagon and I will lynch exclusively from the players on it, for precisely this reason.

Now I admit, there is a significant chance Fire Assassin is just pun, but this changes nothing.

If he is pun fakeclaiming cop, he still has to produce results every day, or be lynched when he fails to do so.

So we wait.

We give him, at minimum, one day phase.

Correct play in a theme game such as this is not to lynch a cop claim and if the cop flips town lynch the other cop claim; correct play in a theme game is to not lynch either cop claim and let them investigate for a night, and then off of those investigation results, revisit and reevaluate every day on whether to lynch one of the cops and if so which one.
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Post Post #1941 (isolation #59) » Sat Jul 07, 2018 11:39 am

Post by Punreader »

In post 1893, ManWithNoName wrote:punreader, you should just shoot me so that town can lynch a scum tomorrow rather than wasting time on me.
You know, this is actually the shot I had submitted until four hours prior to deadline, but to explain why I didn't, you have to first understand:
Commander Shepherd had a method of communicating with me, and
asked
me to shoot him. I wasn't particularly fond of the idea, but I obliged all the same. So, neither kill was mine. (The source of Taly's death is, presumably, having been the N1 nightkill and pun simply shooting TehBrawlGuy tonight.)

I'm fairly confident in three pun being Fire Assassin, Shoshin, and ManWithNoName (outside chance of the worst) at this point, but I still maintain Fire Assassin should not be lynched today. (In spite of his investigation choice being one which is 98% likely a pun investigation as Dunnstral was already nigh-conftown.) Given this,
VOTE: Shoshin.
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Post Post #1943 (isolation #60) » Sat Jul 07, 2018 11:46 am

Post by Punreader »

In post 1941, Punreader wrote:I'm fairly confident in three pun being Fire Assassin, Shoshin, and ManWithNoName (outside chance of the worst) at this point, but I still maintain Fire Assassin should not be lynched today. (In spite of his investigation choice being one which is 98% likely a pun investigation as Dunnstral was already nigh-conftown.) Given this,
VOTE: Shoshin.
I would be open to alternative options, but my plan at this point would be to lynch one of the three non-Fire Assassin names, vig a second of the non-Fire Assassin names, let Fire Assassin generate one more result tonight, and lynch him tomorrow, with the vig on the final name N4.
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Post Post #1947 (isolation #61) » Sat Jul 07, 2018 11:56 am

Post by Punreader »

In post 1942, Dunnstral wrote:Do we know who Taly delayed?
I thought Taly's ability worked that way at first, but sadly, Taly's ability is a passive; we have no method of knowing who Taly delayed, short of a watcher (as we know there's no tracker) having watched Taly N1 (and thus, had the watch be on the same night as the kill).
In post 1942, Dunnstral wrote:ok but your vig shot got wasted
It did not succeed in killing Commander Shepherd.

That is not the same thing as wasted.

There is also a strong factor which makes me believe that Commander Shepherd is town.
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Post Post #1948 (isolation #62) » Sat Jul 07, 2018 11:59 am

Post by Punreader »

In post 1944, DeasVail wrote:Punreader, out of interest, why do you think I'm town?
It's not so much I think you're town as it is I don't have you in my sights for being pun right now.
In post 1946, Dunnstral wrote:Why is Commander Shepard town after telling you to vig them and then nothing happening?
Well for a start depending on exact rankings (I'm planning on recalculating those), he could have been ranked higher than me. This does not make him pun, yet is an incredibly plausible scenario.
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Post Post #1979 (isolation #63) » Sun Jul 08, 2018 10:32 am

Post by Punreader »

In post 1966, Commander Shepard wrote:Punreader is confirmed not group scum unless they are BP as I am relatively confident they shot me last night.
Well, I
am
BP, but my BP has the inverse condition of my vig. If I vigged you successfully, I'd have no BP against you; if I didn't vig you because you're ranked higher than me, I'd be BP against you but also not be making an attempt on your life with my visit (I visit regardless of whether I am ranked higher or lower than my target).
In post 1951, ManWithNoName wrote:Just caved and checked my own decision, I used pun and Dunn. Probably because they rhymed.
For the attentive, this means there is a maximum of one pun in ManWithNoName/Commander Shepherd. This doesn't guarantee one is pun (they both
could
be town), but it guarantees both aren't.

I can explain this, it would simply be anti-town of me to do so.
In post 1952, DeasVail wrote:My main thought right now is that I'm back to being suspicious of Fire because firstly, he's alive, and secondly, why investigate Dunn? That doesn't seem incredibly useful.
Correct. He is, with a high degree of certainty, pun. However, correct play here is to lynch him
tomorrow
, not today.
In post 1955, Espeonage wrote:Fire is fucking scum. He fucked up a fake claim guilty on me to buy himself a day, and I guess to that end he succeeded. So this needs to end now.
Vote: Fire
If the choices are between lynching Fire Assassin and lynching Commander Shepherd, I am choosing to lynch Fire Assassin 100% of the time.

However, I must insist we let him live for one more night and simply lynch him tomorrow, as that is the optimal play.
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Post Post #1983 (isolation #64) » Sun Jul 08, 2018 12:27 pm

Post by Punreader »

In post 1982, DeasVail wrote:
In post 1979, Punreader wrote:However, I must insist we let him live for one more night and simply lynch him tomorrow, as that is the optimal play.
I understand you may have reasons for this that I am not privy to, but as the most likely person, in my mind, to be scum, I will likely be pushing for his lynch today unless this is explained.
I don't have reasons you're not privy to in regards to Fire Assassin. (I do for Commander Shepherd, but the less said there, the better.)

However, my reasoning for this, I stated yesterday.
In post 1513, Punreader wrote:
In post 1332, Taly wrote:
Pun
, can you give me your thoughts on
Fire/Maria
?
I could see any combination of town-town, pun-pun, town-pun, or pun-town as possible. I can tell you on play I am not punreading MariaR, which would make it slightly more likely it's town-town or pun-town, but this is not locked in. Regardless of their alignment, however, correct play is to let both live and gather more results.

After all, if both are town then pun can't let both go unchecked.
In post 1791, Punreader wrote:
In post 1682, Taly wrote:I'm highly suspect of
Fire
at this point
Suspect him all you want.

He is objectively a terrible lynch today because we have two cop claims; if both
are
town (and yes I realize people doubt this but it is not impossible), then pun's only option is to deal with them during the night, lest they both produce more results.

I am telling you now that if we lynch Fire Assassin today and he flips town the entire punteam will be on that wagon and I will lynch exclusively from the players on it, for precisely this reason.

Now I admit, there is a significant chance Fire Assassin is just pun, but this changes nothing.

If he is pun fakeclaiming cop, he still has to produce results every day, or be lynched when he fails to do so.

So we wait.

We give him, at minimum, one day phase.

Correct play in a theme game such as this is not to lynch a cop claim and if the cop flips town lynch the other cop claim; correct play in a theme game is to not lynch either cop claim and let them investigate for a night, and then off of those investigation results, revisit and reevaluate every day on whether to lynch one of the cops and if so which one.
This is unchanged. Reevaluation has determined he is significantly more likely to be pun than yesterday, but he is not absolutely certain to be pun. And on the off chance he is town (after all, our track record in nailing down pun thusfar has not been stellar so who's to say this read is right when prior punreads have been wrong?), then this will sort itself out overnight when the pun are put up against two cop investigations the same night.

MariaR could not investigate last night.
MariaR
can
investigate tonight.
And if Fire Assassin fails to produce an investigative result tomorrow for any reason, we lynch him for it on the spot.

It's simply a matter of optimal play.
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Post Post #1985 (isolation #65) » Sun Jul 08, 2018 12:42 pm

Post by Punreader »

I would like to note in terms of the extra names for data crunching:
Spoiler: Predicted Rankings
1. Chara:
9 10s
1 9
1+1 8s
3 6s
1 5
1 3
1 0

90 + 9 + 16 + 18 + 5 + 3 = 141
9 + 1 + 2 + 3 + 1 + 1 + 1 = 18
141 / 18 = 7.83

2. the worst:
1 10
3 9s
1 8
5 7s
2+1 6s
3 5s
1 2

10 + 27 + 8 + 40 + 18 + 15 + 2 = 120
1 + 3 + 1 + 5 + 3 + 3 + 1 = 17
120 / 17 = 7.06

3. Taly:
7 10s
2 9s
1 8
1 5
1 4
1+1 3s
1 2
1 1
2 0s

70 + 18 + 8 + 5 + 4 + 6 + 2 + 1 = 114
7 + 2 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 2 + 1 + 1 + 2 = 18
114 / 18 = 6.33

4. TehBrawlGuy:
4 10s
3 9s
2 8s
1 6
1 5
1 4
1 3
2+1 2s
2 0s

40 + 27 + 16 + 6 + 5 + 4 + 3 + 6 = 107
4 + 3 + 2 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 3 + 2 = 18
107 / 18 = 5.94 (5.944)

5. Nahdia:
3 10s
1 9
1 8
1 7
2+1 6s
3 5s
3 4s
1 3
2 0s

30 + 9 + 8 + 7 + 18 + 15 + 12 + 3 = 102
3 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 3 + 3 + 3 + 1 + 2 = 18
102 / 18 = 5.67

6. Dunnstral:
3 10s
2 9s
1+1 7s
2 6s
2 5s
1.5 4s
4 2s

30 + 18 + 14 + 12 + 10 + 6 + 8 = 98
3 + 2 + 3 + 2 + 2 + 1.5 + 4 = 17.5
98 / 17.5 = 5.60

7. DeasVail:
1 10
1 8
5 6s
5 5s
3+1 4s
1 0

10 + 8 + 30 + 25 + 16 = 89
1 + 1 + 5 + 5 + 4 + 1 = 17
89 / 17 = 5.24 (5.244)

8. Espeonage:
3+1 10s
1 9
1 8
1 7
2 6s
2 4s
1 3
1 2
4 0s

40 + 9 + 8 + 7 + 12 + 8 + 3 + 2 = 89
4 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 2 + 2 + 1 + 1 + 4 = 17
89 / 17 = 5.24 (5.235)

9. Shoshin:
1 10
3 8s
2 7s
3 6s
3 4s
1 3
2 3s
1+1 0s

10 + 24 + 14 + 18 + 12 + 3 + 6 = 87
1 + 3 + 2 + 3 + 3 + 1 + 2 + 2 = 17
87 / 17 = 5.12

10. MariaR:
2 10s
1 9
2 8s
4 6s
1 5
1+1 4s
1 3
1 1
3 0s

20 + 9 + 16 + 24 + 5 + 8 + 3 + 1 = 86
2 + 1 + 2 + 4 + 1 + 2 + 1 + 1 + 3 = 17
86 / 17 = 5.06

11. Pine:
4+1 10s
1 5
5.5 4s
2 2s
1 1
3 0s

50 + 5 + 22 + 4 + 1 = 82
5 + 1 + 5.5 + 2 + 1 + 3 = 17.5
82 / 17.5 = 4.69 (4.685)

12. Punreader:
6 10s
1 8
2 7s
2 5s
2 4s
1 3
3+1 * 2 0s (8 0s)
60 + 8 + 14 + 10 + 8 + 3 = 103
6 + 1 + 2 + 2 + 2 + 1 + 8 = 22
103 / 22 = 4.68

13. Screenplay:
1 10
3 7s
4 6s
2+1 5s
1 3
1 2
1 1
3 0s

10 + 21 + 24 + 15 + 3 + 2 + 1 = 76
1 + 3 + 4 + 3 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 3 = 17
76 / 17 = 4.47

14. Fire Assassin:
2 10s
2 9s
1 8
3 5s
3 4s
1 3
1 2
2 1s
2+1 0s

20 + 18 + 8 + 15 + 12 + 3 + 2 + 2 = 80
2 + 2 + 1 + 3 + 3 + 1 + 1 + 2 + 3 = 18
80 / 18 = 4.44

15. Vaxkiller:
2 10s
3 6s
2+1 5s
3 4s
1 1
5 0s

20 + 18 + 15 + 12 + 1 = 66
2 + 3 + 3 + 3 + 1 + 5 = 17
66 / 17 = 3.88

16. PenguinPower:
1 10
1+1 9s
2 8s
1 7
1 6
1 5
.5 4s
1 2
1 1
7 0s

10 + 18 + 16 + 7 + 6 + 5 + 2 + 2 + 1 = 67
1 + 2 + 2 + 1 + 1 + 1 + .5 + 1 + 1 + 7 = 17.5
67 / 17.5 = 3.83

17. NicoRobin:
1+1 10s
2 4s
1 3
1 2
3 1s
8 0s

20 + 8 + 3 + 2 + 3 = 36
2 + 2 + 1 + 1 + 3 + 8 = 17
36 / 17 = 2.12

18. Lovebird:
3 5s
3 3s
1 2
5+1 1s
4 0s

15 + 9 + 2 + 6 = 32
3 + 3 + 1 + 6 + 4 = 17
32 / 17 = 1.88
NOTE: As I killed Pine, my score must be higher than this calculation would indicate.
I am not sure how much higher I am meant to be, but it is at least one position since Pine is confirmed as 12 and I shot him. (I'm not sure where I am precisely. I know my role doubles the effects of 0s, and I know Nico's role doubles the effect of scores she gives and she gave me a 0, so those
should
have stacked.)

PREDICTED DATA RESULTS:
18. Lovebird
1.88
0 10s; 4 0s

17. NicoRobin
2.12
1+1 10s; 8 0s

16. PenguinPower
3.83 (EXACTLY ACCURATE)
1 10; 7 0s

11. Pine (DISCREPENCY DUE TO ME BEING RANKED HIGHER)
4.69 (4.685)
4+1 10s; 3 0s

4. TehBrawlGuy
5.94 (5.944) (EXACTLY ACCURATE)
4 10s; 2 0s

3. Taly
6.33 (EXACTLY ACCURATE)
7 10s; 2 0s

ACTUAL DATA RESULTS:
18. Lovebird
1.78
(-.10 difference between prediction)

0 10s; 4 0s

17. NicoRobin
2.06
(-.06 difference between prediction)

1+1 10s; 8 0s

16. PenguinPower
3.83
1 10; 7 0s

12. Pine
4.67
(-.015 difference between prediction)

4+1 10s; 3 0s

4. TehBrawlGuy
5.94
4 10s; 2 0s

3. Taly
6.33
7 10s; 2 0s

Since we're seeing some data points that are precisely as indicated, it is a safe assumption those ratings are 100% accurate.
Notably, the differences in the prediction versus the reality are likely to lie in Pine's missing scores and in the discrepancy in Fire Assassin's rankings. (He submitted three players as 4, and it is unclear which of them is a 5.)

So from this, we can fairly assume, once more, that rankings were as indicated, with the possible exception of the players' ranking on me. (Though, if I had to guess a reason, it may simply be that Pine changed his mind on me and ranked me above 0 and above 1. 103 + [somesmallnumberrangingfrom2to10] / 20 = some number greater than 5.15. This would place me above Pine, but below Nahdia given the maximum rating for me would be 5.65, thus explaining a successful shot on Pine, his ranking, and an unsuccessful shot on Commander Shepherd.)
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Post Post #1986 (isolation #66) » Sun Jul 08, 2018 12:49 pm

Post by Punreader »

In post 1985, Punreader wrote:So from this, we can fairly assume, once more, that rankings were as indicated, with the possible exception of the players' ranking on me.
This is useful, because if you can trust rankings to be accurate, then you can also trust the rankings to be done with an alignment associated with the picks.

If ranks are truthful (and we know they are), then players have accountability for what their rankings are. Certain decisions in their rankings then become more, or less, suspect. This will be most apparent once we get a pun flip; with even so much as a single pun dead, how players ranked that pun player will reveal a lot about everyones' alignments.

However, even prior to a pun flip, we can use rankings as a punhunting tool. If we have the spare time, it may be useful to compare stated D1 stances with the rankings; if there is an obvious disparity between the claimed rankings and the stated reads, that is automatically suspect, unless they can provide a
very
compelling reason for the dissonance.
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Post Post #1987 (isolation #67) » Sun Jul 08, 2018 12:51 pm

Post by Punreader »

(For those who wish to see a quick reference, is the end of D1. All posts with a number lower than 824, then, are part of what formed a player's D1 stances.)
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Post Post #1988 (isolation #68) » Sun Jul 08, 2018 12:56 pm

Post by Punreader »

No surprises here, but my first iso was of Chara, and what I saw in Chara's posting more or less lines up with,
Chara's Rankings wrote:TehBrawlGuy (10)
Taly (10)
Chara (10)
Nahdia (9)
Punreader (8)
the worst (7)
MariaR (6)
Shoshin (6)
DeasVail (5)
Dunnstral (5)
Espeonage (4)
Fire Assassin (4)
Lovebird (3)
PenguinPower (2)
NicoRobin (1)
Pine (0)
Screenplay (0)
Vaxkiller (0)
These are fairly true to stances, so there is no disparity to be had. (But we all knew that anyway.)
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Post Post #1990 (isolation #69) » Sun Jul 08, 2018 1:06 pm

Post by Punreader »

In post 652, DeasVail wrote:The following people are some form of townread for me. No indication is made as to the strength of townread:
Dunnstral
Nahdia
Now here's some dissonance I have to ask about.
DeasVail's Rankings wrote:Taly (10)
Punreader (10)
DeasVail (10)
the worst (9)
Shoshin (8)
Screenplay (7)
Chara (6)
Vaxkiller (6)
Nahdia (5)
Fire Assassin (5)
Dunnstral (4)
Pine (4)
TehBrawlGuy (3)
Espeonage (2)
Lovebird (1)
MariaR (0)
PenguinPower (0)
NicoRobin (0)
So Taly, myself, the worst, Shoshin, Screenplay, and Chara were all townreads. That makes sense. I've removed those names from the original , because what I really want to focus on here is the remainder. Dunnstral is listed as a townread, but is below both Fire Assassin and Vaxkiller, who are not listed as townreads. Nahdia is listed as a townread, but is below Vaxkiller who is not listed as a townread and is equal to Fire Assassin who is not listed as a townread.

The rest seem to loosely match up, but those rankings in particular seem jarring.

Care explaining, DeasVail?
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Post Post #1991 (isolation #70) » Sun Jul 08, 2018 1:08 pm

Post by Punreader »

In post 1989, Commander Shepard wrote:So tldr scum lied as I said?
No, the opposite, pun told the truth. Meaning we can punhunt off of rankings versus reads (town shouldn't have dissonance between the two; pun aren't
guaranteed
to have dissonance between the two, but it is quite likely they will), precisely what I am doing right now with a simple fact checking process.
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Post Post #1994 (isolation #71) » Sun Jul 08, 2018 1:13 pm

Post by Punreader »

Dunnstral may be conftown, but it never hurts to do the fact-check if for no other reason to see if it holds merit. And,
Dunnstral's Rankings wrote:Dunnstral (10)
Fire Assassin (10)
Chara (10)
Taly (9)
Espeonage (8)
Punreader (7)
MariaR (6)
Screenplay (6)
Nahdia (5)
the worst (5)
DeasVail (4)
Pine (4)
Shoshin (3)
TehBrawlGuy (2)
PenguinPower (1)
Lovebird (0)
Vaxkiller (0)
NicoRobin (0)
Dunnstral didn't give much on D1, but these do loosely match up with what he said, though MariaR is a 6 instead of the promised 4. (Then again, Pine was "a little scummy", got a 4, and Shoshin was suspect, got a 3, there's hints of not being impressed with TehBrawlGuy, he promised to rank PenguinPower low, etc., so ranking MariaR higher than that is not too surprising.)

So overall, fairly neat match between reads and rankings; no real visible dissonance.
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Post Post #1995 (isolation #72) » Sun Jul 08, 2018 1:15 pm

Post by Punreader »

In post 1992, MariaR wrote:Do the number of 10s and 0 match up with what's been said so far? Perhaps we can catch a liar
I checked.
In post 1985, Punreader wrote:PREDICTED DATA RESULTS:
18. Lovebird
0 10s; 4 0s

17. NicoRobin
1+1 10s; 8 0s

16. PenguinPower
1 10; 7 0s

11. Pine
4+1 10s; 3 0s

4. TehBrawlGuy
4 10s; 2 0s

3. Taly
7 10s; 2 0s

ACTUAL DATA RESULTS:
18. Lovebird
0 10s; 4 0s

17. NicoRobin
1+1 10s; 8 0s

16. PenguinPower
1 10; 7 0s

12. Pine
4+1 10s; 3 0s

4. TehBrawlGuy
4 10s; 2 0s

3. Taly
7 10s; 2 0s
The numbers match up.
As I said, evidence supports the pun having told the truth. Given that they told the truth, they are thus accountable for their rankings, which is why I am currently in the process of isoing players and reviewing what their stated reads were, and pulling up their rankings to compare the two.
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Post Post #1997 (isolation #73) » Sun Jul 08, 2018 1:22 pm

Post by Punreader »

So I realize he's conftown but I still need to ask,
In post 349, Espeonage wrote:Pine not feeling pressure to produce content right now also can be weak town.
This is the only difference between your given reads and,
Espeonage's Rankings wrote:Espeonage (10)
Dunnstral (10)
Vaxkiller (10)
TehBrawlGuy (9)
Taly (8)
the worst (7)
DeasVail (6)
PenguinPower (6)
MariaR (5)
Chara (5)
Punreader (4)
Nahdia (4)
Shoshin (3)
Screenplay (2)
Lovebird (1)
Fire Assassin (0)
Pine (0)
Nico Robin (0)
What changed your mind on Pine?
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Post Post #2000 (isolation #74) » Sun Jul 08, 2018 1:31 pm

Post by Punreader »

In post 418, Fire Assassin wrote:Yes, we should all post our rankings before EOD.

I am right now with Chara and the worst getting 10s and Espeonage and Taly with 0
MariaR at a 5.

Unsure where to put everyone else.
It's interesting that Fire Assassin said this, and yet didn't follow through with it. It's also interesting that the stated reads don't match, given:
Fire Assassin's Rankings wrote:Nahdia (10)
Fire Assassin (10)
Chara (10)
MariaR (9)
TehBrawlGuy (8)
the worst (7)
Shoshin (6)
Screenplay (6)
DeasVail (5)
Dunnstral (4) (ONE OF THESE IS A FIVE)
Pine (4) (ONE OF THESE IS A FIVE)
PenguinPower (4) (ONE OF THESE IS A FIVE)
Punreader (3)
Taly (2)
Lovebird (1)
Espeonage (0)
Vaxkiller (0)
NicoRobin (0)
However,
that having been said
, in spite of his rankings not matching his stated rankings, the sentiment behind them
is
a perfect match. Almost all the players he ranked low are players he expressed some negative sentiment towards; almost all the players he ranked high are players he expressed positive sentiment towards.

On an unrelated side-note, coming away from this iso I felt like Fire Assassin's iso reeked of pun, but I maintain optimal play is still the course of action where we don't lynch him
today
.
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Post Post #2002 (isolation #75) » Sun Jul 08, 2018 1:39 pm

Post by Punreader »

So it's a little hard to tell given MariaR stated she would lie about her rankings prior to D2 as to obfuscate them from the pun, however,
MariaR's Rankings wrote:Punreader (10)
MariaR (10)
Espeonage (10)
TehBrawlGuy (9)
the worst (8)
PenguinPower (7)
Chara (6)
Screenplay (6)
DeasVail (5)
Dunnstral (5)
Taly (4)
Shoshin (4)
Fire Assassin (3)
Pine (2)
Vaxkiller (1)
Nahdia (0)
Lovebird (0)
NicoRobin (0)
Having isoed her, I can see most of these lining up fairly well to the sentiment behind her posts.
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Post Post #2003 (isolation #76) » Sun Jul 08, 2018 1:40 pm

Post by Punreader »

In post 2001, Espeonage wrote:Please talk me though why you don't want to lynch someone you think is going to flip scum?
How many times do I need to quote it?
In post 1983, Punreader wrote:
In post 1513, Punreader wrote:
In post 1332, Taly wrote:
Pun
, can you give me your thoughts on
Fire/Maria
?
I could see any combination of town-town, pun-pun, town-pun, or pun-town as possible. I can tell you on play I am not punreading MariaR, which would make it slightly more likely it's town-town or pun-town, but this is not locked in. Regardless of their alignment, however, correct play is to let both live and gather more results.

After all, if both are town then pun can't let both go unchecked.
In post 1791, Punreader wrote:
In post 1682, Taly wrote:I'm highly suspect of
Fire
at this point
Suspect him all you want.

He is objectively a terrible lynch today because we have two cop claims; if both
are
town (and yes I realize people doubt this but it is not impossible), then pun's only option is to deal with them during the night, lest they both produce more results.

I am telling you now that if we lynch Fire Assassin today and he flips town the entire punteam will be on that wagon and I will lynch exclusively from the players on it, for precisely this reason.

Now I admit, there is a significant chance Fire Assassin is just pun, but this changes nothing.

If he is pun fakeclaiming cop, he still has to produce results every day, or be lynched when he fails to do so.

So we wait.

We give him, at minimum, one day phase.

Correct play in a theme game such as this is not to lynch a cop claim and if the cop flips town lynch the other cop claim; correct play in a theme game is to not lynch either cop claim and let them investigate for a night, and then off of those investigation results, revisit and reevaluate every day on whether to lynch one of the cops and if so which one.
This is unchanged. Reevaluation has determined he is significantly more likely to be pun than yesterday, but he is not absolutely certain to be pun. And on the off chance he is town (after all, our track record in nailing down pun thusfar has not been stellar so who's to say this read is right when prior punreads have been wrong?), then this will sort itself out overnight when the pun are put up against two cop investigations the same night.

MariaR could not investigate last night.
MariaR
can
investigate tonight.
And if Fire Assassin fails to produce an investigative result tomorrow for any reason, we lynch him for it on the spot.

It's simply a matter of optimal play.
Optimal play is to lynch Fire Assassin tomorrow.

I do feel he is pun, but I also feel that objectively speaking, the optimal play is to wait one day before lynching him.
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Post Post #2006 (isolation #77) » Sun Jul 08, 2018 2:00 pm

Post by Punreader »

In post 2004, Commander Shepard wrote:...Isn’t that a bad thing?
I'm not looking at past D1.

I'm referring to D1 specifically.
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Post Post #2007 (isolation #78) » Sun Jul 08, 2018 2:57 pm

Post by Punreader »

Shoshin's Rankings wrote:Taly (10)
Shoshin (10)
Chara (10)
the worst (9)
TehBrawlGuy (8)
Screenplay (7)
DeasVail (6)
Dunnstral (6)
Punreader (5)
Vaxkiller (5)
Nahdia (4)
NicoRobin (4)
Espeonage (3)
Fire Assassin (2)
Pine (1)
MariaR (0)
Lovebird (0)
PenguinPower (0)
Some of these match up to stances.
Some.
Most? Not particularly; Shoshin's stated stances are vastly different than what these rankings would imply.
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Post Post #2009 (isolation #79) » Sun Jul 08, 2018 3:02 pm

Post by Punreader »

In post 578, Srceenplay wrote:
In post 573, Shoshin wrote:
In post 572, Srceenplay wrote:Engage with me.
What're your top 3 scumreads/townreads at the moment?
Didn’t I just give this?
In post 489, Srceenplay wrote:Low points
The Worst
Action
Screenplay's Rankings wrote:Screenplay (10)
Taly (10)
TehBrawlGuy (10)
Chara (9)
Shoshin (8)
the worst (7)
Vaxkiller (6)
Dunnstral (6)
Fire Assassin (5)
Nahdia (5)
Pine (4)
Punreader (4)
Lovebird (3)
NicoRobin (2)
MariaR (1)
DeasVail (0)
Espeonage (0)
PenguinPower (0)
I realize he can't answer for this but I'm quite curious what changed on the worst and Nahdia's slot, here.
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Post Post #2010 (isolation #80) » Sun Jul 08, 2018 3:03 pm

Post by Punreader »

In post 2008, Vaxkiller wrote:OK, so im town, I shot commander last night and hes still alive.... wtf
I'm also town and also shot Commander Shepherd last night.

This seems to be fairly good indication that Commander Shepherd had a protective action used on him.
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Post Post #2011 (isolation #81) » Sun Jul 08, 2018 3:11 pm

Post by Punreader »

In post 813, the worst wrote:LOVEBIRD <3
This seems an unusual reaction to have to someone you're planning on rating zero and ended the day on before they could post. (the worst was one of the hammering votes on ending the day, and yet did so before Lovebird could even give love.)
In post 749, the worst wrote:I kinda agree with you about read lists generally but in this game specifically were kinda obligated to do one at EOD1. I was thinking having a quick snippet of where your mind is at might help me calibrate my read on you but your response is understandable.
In spite of stating that reads lists are something we should be obligated to do at the end of D1, he did not do so.
In post 575, the worst wrote:
In post 569, MariaR wrote:Shoshin is by far the player that interests me the most atm.
I like her. What's on your mind?
This is the latest I can find on Shoshin, and yet...
the worst's Rankings wrote:Taly (10)
the worst (10)
Chara (10)
Espeonage (9)
MariaR (8)
Nahdia (7)
TehBrawlGuy (6)
DeasVail (6)
Punreader (5)
PenguinPower (5)
Pine (4)
Vaxkiller (4)
Shoshin (3)
Dunnstral (2)
Fire Assassin (1)
Lovebird (0)
Screenplay (0)
NicoRobin (0)
This would imply he didn't really like her.

Why is there such a large dissonance between his stated stances and his actual ones?
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Post Post #2012 (isolation #82) » Sun Jul 08, 2018 3:18 pm

Post by Punreader »

So I know he's conftown, but:
Vaxkiller's Stances wrote:Nahdia (10)
Pine (10)
Vaxkiller (10)
Fire Assassin (9)
PenguinPower (8)
Punreader (7)
DeasVail (6)
Screenplay (6)
the worst (5)
Lovebird (5)
Espeonage (4)
Shoshin (4)
Chara (3)
Dunnstral (2)
NicoRobin (1)
TehBrawlGuy (0)
Taly (0)
MariaR (0)
Vax, a lot of your stances here in the rankings don't seem to line up with your statements D1.
Why am I this high? You were going after me a lot.
Why is Pine that high when you were stating suspicion of him?
When did you get opinions on Fire (high) and Dunn (low)? You stated you didn't have opinions on either.

For that matter, how did you get the rest of these? Most of your top and bottom reads lack any explanation. (Middle reads like DeasVail and Espeonage, I understand as that's what you were saying in regards to them. But the closer to the edge in your reads I get in both directions, the less sense they make.)
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Post Post #2289 (isolation #83) » Thu Jul 12, 2018 6:38 pm

Post by Punreader »

In post 2013, Commander Shepard wrote:I don’t believe in two vigs.
I believe it's possible.
In post 2021, Dunnstral wrote:Why wouldn't protective be on the cop claim?
Because we want the pun to nightkill them since both are suspects by dayplay? (MariaR may not be seen nearly as suspicious, but there are enough people who have mixed-to-negative reads on her that she is far from a universal townread.)
In post 2054, ManWithNoName wrote:How did you get a neighborhood with punreader?
It's part of our roles. It's in our role PMs. The PM lists the scummers our flavors are, rather than listing us, but it's there.
In post 2056, Commander Shepard wrote:Don’t know. It’s been there since night one.
Actually it was there in pregame, it was just locked until N1. (We had no pregame chat, which is why I suspected pun also lacked it D1.)
In post 2096, Commander Shepard wrote:And one protect never does two shots. Never have seen it.
I have. All the time. In fact, just about the only place to use that standard is Normal games; literally everywhere else, one protection protects against all kills. Even if not, the lack of death can be explained by you being ranked higher than me (thus, I can't kill you, thus, I don't shoot you) and Vaxkiller's shot somehow failing.
In post 2088, Shoshin wrote:VOTE: Commander Shepard
If you needed reason for Shoshin to be pun...you need look no further.
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Post Post #2290 (isolation #84) » Thu Jul 12, 2018 6:49 pm

Post by Punreader »

In post 2106, Vaxkiller wrote:If im dead tomorrow, press punreader. He is mysteriously absent from all this.
Alternatively,
In post 1790, Punreader wrote:
In post 1640, Taly wrote:
-
Acknowledge and dislike the fact that
Pun
shits out a bunch of content only to disappear for the next 2-3 days
This is easily shown to be site-wide, and you'll be seeing another such disappearance this weekend. This is indicative not of my alignment but of my life. Those disappearances are not strategic; they are simply me playing during the times I can play and not playing during the times I cannot.

This is not a new trend; it is a trend which has been there the whole game and also a trend which you can look into my previously completed game on this account (mhsmith's mini theme with the cops) and confirm was present there just as much (if not stronger; mhsmith almost force-replaced me at one point because of my misunderstanding regarding prod rules).
This hasn't changed and in fact the only reason I am posting tonight is because I'd be replaced if I didn't. I otherwise wouldn't be up for it, but I have no choice but to play. The quality of my content is not as high as I'd prefer right now, but that's life for you. I'm simply not able to play mafia effectively at this particular moment, it's just that because of activity requirements I'm mandated to do so anyway.
In post 2216, Shoshin wrote:They should out who is in their neighborhood.
It is not a player widely punread. That fact, in of itself, makes outing them an incredibly pro-pun agenda.

I am of the opinion it is an all-town neighborhood.
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Post Post #2291 (isolation #85) » Thu Jul 12, 2018 6:54 pm

Post by Punreader »

In post 2235, Vaxkiller wrote:Also punreader has been on since he last posted here on sunday and he has posted elsewhere once.
I beg your pardon, but while I was on once, I'm quite certain that Sunday was the last day I posted.

Perhaps it was only Sunday by the last timezones on Earth, but it was in fact on Sunday. And if you had the knowledge necessary to even tell that I had been on once, the cause of this and why I didn't post in here should in of itself be obvious to you.
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Post Post #2317 (isolation #86) » Mon Jul 16, 2018 9:56 am

Post by Punreader »

Many apologies. I thought I had another day before being prodded. I was planning on posting today regardless to reset the prod meter. Just now it's out of necessity rather than preference. :oops:
In post 2292, Shoshin wrote:Pun, why do you think Shepard is town?
Experience.

I have played with Commander Shepherd, and I know for a fact you have, too. I know precisely the type of moonlogic he uses and how he goes on the crazy tirades he does.

I can also differentiate between him genuinely doing so, faking having done so, and genuinely doing so but still being pun anyway. All three have signature telltale signs. When the process is faked, it sticks out like a sore thumb and I can instantly nail him for it. When he is genuine but still pun anyway, there is an indigence in that he feels like he was caught for bullshit reasons: "right, for the wrong reasons".

Neither of those is present and I can thus say that this is his town self with absolute confidence.

...Also I am privy to his neighborhood talk so there is that as well.

Additionally, I felt Nahdia was playing to their town meta, and that ActionDan was playing to his town meta before that.

The slot has been solid the whole game across all three slots, but only in ways obvious to someone with extensive experience with them.
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Post Post #2319 (isolation #87) » Mon Jul 16, 2018 10:05 am

Post by Punreader »

In post 2317, Punreader wrote:I know precisely the type of moonlogic he uses and how he goes on the crazy tirades he does.

I can also differentiate between him genuinely doing so, faking having done so, and genuinely doing so but still being pun anyway. All three have signature telltale signs. When the process is faked, it sticks out like a sore thumb and I can instantly nail him for it. When he is genuine but still pun anyway, there is an indigence in that he feels like he was caught for bullshit reasons: "right, for the wrong reasons".
To further explain, because I know precisely the type of logical reasoning he uses, I can follow his thought process along perfectly the entire time. There is never a point where, when he is genuine, I will be confused at how he got to his conclusion.

While his conclusions will always make me facepalm as I know exactly the points where his reasoning goes from reasonable to absurd, I can still follow the process from start to finish, and know that there were no leaps too extreme to have been made sincerely. These changes may seem difficult to follow at first, but once you know how his mind works, it's quite easy.

And I can confidently say, I've been putting myself in his shoes. I know he's wrong for numerous reasons from the fact doctors
do
protect against all kills, my kill is dependent on him being ranked lower than me when he is almost assuredly ranked higher than me (thus only necessitating the explanation of Vaxkiller's failure, which is easily explained as him being roleblocked), and similar facts.

But while I know he's wrong, I can follow precisely how he came to those conclusions step by step, including why he believes things that are objectively wrong. I know him well enough to know that he would never deliberately intentionally lie about a provable fact, such as mafia theory. Thus, mistakes such as stating a doctor can only protect against a single kill I know are regardless of his alignment going to have been sincere.
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Post Post #2393 (isolation #88) » Wed Jul 18, 2018 8:27 pm

Post by Punreader »

In post 2349, Shoshin wrote:I think we should mass claim.
That may not have been a bad idea if it were suggested earlier in the day phase, but we simply don't have enough time today. We can discuss whether it is viable to do tomorrow, today, but we cannot actually start a massclaim today.
In post 2320, the worst wrote:Pun can you determine what the fuck the n2 shenanigans were about and whether or not we can get any valuable information from it?
My answer is simple.
Commander Shepherd is ranked higher than me; my vig thus cannot kill him.
As he could not be killed by me, then that leaves only Vaxkiller's vig failing unaccounted for.
This can be explained in one of two ways: Vaxkiller being roleblocked, or Commander Shepherd being protected.

As both of these are fairly plausible (even if not the most probable) scenarios, we cannot glean any useful information from their claims, and the whole fight is two townies arguing with one another. Lynching Commander Shepherd will always be a mistake, and I would lynch almost literally anyone else instead of him.

Case and point:
In post 2332, DeasVail wrote:UNVOTE: Shepard
VOTE: the worst
If I cannot swing a Shoshin lynch, this would be my next preference.
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Post Post #2429 (isolation #89) » Thu Jul 19, 2018 7:10 pm

Post by Punreader »

MOD: Need a 24-48 hour V/LA.

Need to recover from illness.
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Post Post #2581 (isolation #90) » Sun Jul 22, 2018 9:41 am

Post by Punreader »

I am here and will be reading shortly.
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Post Post #2634 (isolation #91) » Thu Jul 26, 2018 6:34 pm

Post by Punreader »

In post 2587, Commander Shepard wrote:VOTE: Shoshin
Punreader said they were shooting Shoshin and Shoshin is alive.
Can confirm, but you apparently missed the more important half of my shot.
My shot was half to test my ranking. With Shoshin still alive, we can thus deduce that Shoshin is ranked higher than me. We do not need to assume Shoshin was protected since it is quite probable for Shoshin to be higher than me.

The correct lynch for today is this:
VOTE: Fire Assassin.
In post 2593, Vaxkiller wrote:Is pun reader even talking to you? I mean he was BARELY here yesterday!!!!!!
You apparently missed this:
In post 2581, Punreader wrote:I am here and will be reading shortly.
I was literally the last post before thread lock, announcing I was beginning my catch-up. Sure enough, my notification of the thread being locked was in my attempt to quote a post only to have it not work.

I was catching up and mere minutes away from posting the following, which my neighborhood can confirm I promptly posted to our PT:
In post 2414, the worst wrote:3. Punreader - BP to all players ranked lower, vig to all players ranked lower (further reading: serial killer)
How many times will I need to correct people on this? It is bulletproof to people ranked higher, vigs players ranked lower.
In post 2440, Vaxkiller wrote:
In post 2438, guacamole wrote:
In post 2431, Vaxkiller wrote:@theworst can you explain what happened with pun/cshep/myself last night?
CShep is higher ranked than Pun so Pun's action had no effect. Remove Pun from the equation and recalculate.
Pun should have known that, why wasnt this brought up in their "Night Neighborhood"?
To the contrary!

During the night, I was a little swamped. I didn't have the time to calculate rankings myself, manually.
So what I did, is I relied on the worst's rankings. This post, to be specific:
In post 1520, the worst wrote:let's do thisssssssss

scores are approximate since the double-weighted scores are not an exact doubling of themselves (evidenced by Pine's slot; to get his average he'd have needed a 0 from Reuben/Lovebird which we know is not correct).
even so these are probably close enough to the actual scores that I'm feeling comfortable.


PositionNameRank
1stChara8.29
2ndthe worst7.19
3rdTaly6.71
4thTehBrawlGuy6.29
5thDunnstral6.25
6thPunreader6.06
7thNahdia6.00
8thDeasVail5.56
9thEspeonage5.56
10thShoshin5.44
11thMariaR5.38
12thPine4.94
13thManWithNoName4.75
14thFire Assassin4.71
15thVaxkiller4.13
16thPenguinPower4.06
17thLovebird2.00
18thNicoRobin1.63




Spoiler: data tabled (more #aesthetic than useful but....fight me)
X axis : receiver of score
Y axis : giver of score


RECEIVER
GIVER
TehBrawlGuy
Taly
Punreader
MariaR
DeasVail
Espeonage
Dunnstral
Nahdia
the worst
Pine
Shoshin
Fire Assassin
Lovebird
Chara
ManWithNoName
Vaxkiller
PenguinPower
NicoRobin
TehBrawlGuy
101108509621074563400
Taly
510106602495813107004
Punreader
010106469850752101403
MariaR
941010510508243066170
DeasVail
310100102459485167600
Espeonage
984561010470301521060
Dunnstral
297648105543100106010
Nahdia
451035621074691100080
the worst
610586927104310100450
Pine
10900108100
Shoshin
810506364911020107504
Fire Assassin
823950410746101106040
Lovebird
Chara
101086545970643100021
ManWithNoName
101041006574853910602
Vaxkiller
007064210510495361081
PenguinPower
900108710362445056101
NicoRobin
4608820141212200021610101810
AVERAGE
AVERAGE
AVERAGE
AVERAGE
AVERAGE
AVERAGE
AVERAGE
AVERAGE
AVERAGE
AVERAGE
AVERAGE
AVERAGE
AVERAGE
AVERAGE
AVERAGE
AVERAGE
AVERAGE
AVERAGE
6.29
6.71
6.06
5.38
5.56
5.56
6.25
6.00
7.19
4.94
5.44
4.71
2.00
8.29
4.75
4.13
4.06
1.63
TENS
TENS
TENS
TENS
TENS
TENS
TENS
TENS
TENS
TENS
TENS
TENS
TENS
TENS
TENS
TENS
TENS
TENS
4
7
6
2
1
3
3
3
1
4
1
2
0
9
2
3
1
1
ZEROES
ZEROES
ZEROES
ZEROES
ZEROES
ZEROES
ZEROES
ZEROES
ZEROES
ZEROES
ZEROES
ZEROES
ZEROES
ZEROES
ZEROES
ZEROES
ZEROES
ZEROES
2
2
3
3
1
4
0
2
0
3
1
2
4
1
3
5
7
8
unaccounted votes
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
1
2
1
2
1
2
1
2
2
1
2
unaccounted points
???
???
???
???
???
???
???
???
???
0
???
???
???
???
???
???
???
11
av. unacc. score
???
???
???
???
???
???
???
???
???
0
???
???
???
???
???
???
???
5.5
By this post, my shot would have worked.

But on D3, I calculated the rankings myself rather than relying on the worst, and by my calculations, it was plausible I was ranked below Nahdia rather than above.
In post 2394, the worst wrote:you'd lynch me next?
Yes, I was quite clear about this earlier:
In post 1941, Punreader wrote:I'm fairly confident in three pun being Fire Assassin, Shoshin, and ManWithNoName (outside chance of the worst) at this point
In post 2418, the worst wrote:I'm p comfortable that one of them is a serial killer. if pun is honestly intending to turn around and say they magically want to lynch me after treating me like I'm town all game I think that's a soft SK claim. (they as a SK would need everyone ranked higher than them lynched or sorted by NK)
Alternatively, you were a weak townread, all my punreads thusfar have flipped town, and
two players suspicious of you died overnight.
That changes things.
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Post Post #2635 (isolation #92) » Thu Jul 26, 2018 6:38 pm

Post by Punreader »

Speaking of rankings:
In post 1985, Punreader wrote:10. MariaR:
2 10s
1 9
2 8s
4 6s
1 5
1+1 4s
1 3
1 1
3 0s

20 + 9 + 16 + 24 + 5 + 8 + 3 + 1 = 86
2 + 1 + 2 + 4 + 1 + 2 + 1 + 1 + 3 = 17
86 / 17 = 5.06
In post 2584, Errantparabola wrote:
9. MariaR
(TOWN)

Average:
5.11
Number of 10s:
2
Number of 0s:
3
Maria's rank and number is higher than predicted. She should have been one rank lower with 5.06, rather than the 5.11 she got. However, this is still fairly within the margin of error I would say.
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Post Post #2636 (isolation #93) » Thu Jul 26, 2018 6:47 pm

Post by Punreader »

Given these rankings and the results of my shot, we can deduce I am most likely ranked at #11: below Shoshin, who is below MariaR.

Thus, my shot failed on Commander Shepherd because Nahdia was ranked even higher than Shoshin was.

This is not rocket science.

If you assume I am rank 11, everything makes sense. My shot on Pine went through because he was rank 12, lower than me; my shot on Commander Shepherd failed because he is ranked at around 5 give or take; my shot on Shoshin failed because Shoshin is ranked immediately above me at #10.

So my kills have failed not because of some doctor protection or some roleblock, but simply because I am too lowly ranked to have made them successfully.

This is, in my opinion, not a bad thing, given it means I am bulletproof to...literally everyone except for Fire Assassin, Vaxkiller, and guacamole. (An absolute maximum of two being pun. Most likely, just the one, and almost certainly, being Fire Assassin.)
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Post Post #2637 (isolation #94) » Thu Jul 26, 2018 6:51 pm

Post by Punreader »

Just to put it on the record:
Since I know Fire Assassin is ranked lower than me, if we don't lynch him, I'm shooting him.
But we should just be lynching him.

In the event we do lynch him, I am not nightkilling either of guacamole or Vaxkiller tonight. (As I have strong reason to believe Vaxkiller is town, I will not shoot him. While guacamole has a chance at being pun, and has been a punread of mine the whole game, I've since come to doubt that read and feel it was wrong.)
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Post Post #2640 (isolation #95) » Thu Jul 26, 2018 7:08 pm

Post by Punreader »

In post 2638, Krazy wrote:Why is C.Shep not scum?
Because this is not his pungame. For further detail, read this:
In post 2317, Punreader wrote:
In post 2292, Shoshin wrote:Pun, why do you think Shepard is town?
Experience.

I have played with Commander Shepherd, and I know for a fact you have, too. I know precisely the type of moonlogic he uses and how he goes on the crazy tirades he does.

I can also differentiate between him genuinely doing so, faking having done so, and genuinely doing so but still being pun anyway. All three have signature telltale signs. When the process is faked, it sticks out like a sore thumb and I can instantly nail him for it. When he is genuine but still pun anyway, there is an indigence in that he feels like he was caught for bullshit reasons: "right, for the wrong reasons".

Neither of those is present and I can thus say that this is his town self with absolute confidence.

...Also I am privy to his neighborhood talk so there is that as well.

Additionally, I felt Nahdia was playing to their town meta, and that ActionDan was playing to his town meta before that.

The slot has been solid the whole game across all three slots, but only in ways obvious to someone with extensive experience with them.
In post 2319, Punreader wrote:
In post 2317, Punreader wrote:I know precisely the type of moonlogic he uses and how he goes on the crazy tirades he does.

I can also differentiate between him genuinely doing so, faking having done so, and genuinely doing so but still being pun anyway. All three have signature telltale signs. When the process is faked, it sticks out like a sore thumb and I can instantly nail him for it. When he is genuine but still pun anyway, there is an indigence in that he feels like he was caught for bullshit reasons: "right, for the wrong reasons".
To further explain, because I know precisely the type of logical reasoning he uses, I can follow his thought process along perfectly the entire time. There is never a point where, when he is genuine, I will be confused at how he got to his conclusion.

While his conclusions will always make me facepalm as I know exactly the points where his reasoning goes from reasonable to absurd, I can still follow the process from start to finish, and know that there were no leaps too extreme to have been made sincerely. These changes may seem difficult to follow at first, but once you know how his mind works, it's quite easy.

And I can confidently say, I've been putting myself in his shoes. I know he's wrong for numerous reasons from the fact doctors
do
protect against all kills, my kill is dependent on him being ranked lower than me when he is almost assuredly ranked higher than me (thus only necessitating the explanation of Vaxkiller's failure, which is easily explained as him being roleblocked), and similar facts.

But while I know he's wrong, I can follow precisely how he came to those conclusions step by step, including why he believes things that are objectively wrong. I know him well enough to know that he would never deliberately intentionally lie about a provable fact, such as mafia theory. Thus, mistakes such as stating a doctor can only protect against a single kill I know are regardless of his alignment going to have been sincere.
Any player having played extensively with Commander Shepherd yet maintaining a strong punread on him is, automatically, suspect in my book because they by all rights should know better. This is his towngame. It is frustrating to play with to no end, but you do not lynch pun by lynching players that frustrate you; you lynch pun by lynching pun.
In post 2639, Krazy wrote:We're also behind in the race. Why are you not shooting him during the night and lynching higher ranked scum?
If you are referring to Fire Assassin, it is because he claimed cop, and my reasons for not lynching or shooting the cop claim were outlined previously:
In post 2003, Punreader wrote:
In post 2001, Espeonage wrote:Please talk me though why you don't want to lynch someone you think is going to flip scum?
How many times do I need to quote it?
In post 1983, Punreader wrote:
In post 1513, Punreader wrote:
In post 1332, Taly wrote:
Pun
, can you give me your thoughts on
Fire/Maria
?
I could see any combination of town-town, pun-pun, town-pun, or pun-town as possible. I can tell you on play I am not punreading MariaR, which would make it slightly more likely it's town-town or pun-town, but this is not locked in. Regardless of their alignment, however, correct play is to let both live and gather more results.

After all, if both are town then pun can't let both go unchecked.
In post 1791, Punreader wrote:
In post 1682, Taly wrote:I'm highly suspect of
Fire
at this point
Suspect him all you want.

He is objectively a terrible lynch today because we have two cop claims; if both
are
town (and yes I realize people doubt this but it is not impossible), then pun's only option is to deal with them during the night, lest they both produce more results.

I am telling you now that if we lynch Fire Assassin today and he flips town the entire punteam will be on that wagon and I will lynch exclusively from the players on it, for precisely this reason.

Now I admit, there is a significant chance Fire Assassin is just pun, but this changes nothing.

If he is pun fakeclaiming cop, he still has to produce results every day, or be lynched when he fails to do so.

So we wait.

We give him, at minimum, one day phase.

Correct play in a theme game such as this is not to lynch a cop claim and if the cop flips town lynch the other cop claim; correct play in a theme game is to not lynch either cop claim and let them investigate for a night, and then off of those investigation results, revisit and reevaluate every day on whether to lynch one of the cops and if so which one.
This is unchanged. Reevaluation has determined he is significantly more likely to be pun than yesterday, but he is not absolutely certain to be pun. And on the off chance he is town (after all, our track record in nailing down pun thusfar has not been stellar so who's to say this read is right when prior punreads have been wrong?), then this will sort itself out overnight when the pun are put up against two cop investigations the same night.

MariaR could not investigate last night.
MariaR
can
investigate tonight.
And if Fire Assassin fails to produce an investigative result tomorrow for any reason, we lynch him for it on the spot.

It's simply a matter of optimal play.
Optimal play is to lynch Fire Assassin tomorrow.

I do feel he is pun, but I also feel that objectively speaking, the optimal play is to wait one day before lynching him.
We waited the one day.

Now we lynch him.
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Post Post #2642 (isolation #96) » Thu Jul 26, 2018 7:21 pm

Post by Punreader »

In post 2641, Krazy wrote:I'm convinced that you don't think he's scum
Then you need only ask yourself one question.
"Does Punreader's conviction on Commander Shepherd being town hold merit?"


If the answer is yes, you should not be voting him. If you believe I genuinely don't think he's pun, and you think that belief holds merit, then he should not be the lynch.

If the answer is no, then you should have some
darn
good reasons for why not.
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Post Post #2644 (isolation #97) » Thu Jul 26, 2018 7:29 pm

Post by Punreader »

In post 2643, Krazy wrote:Sheeping Maria.
Maria was a claimed cop; her death is explained as a PR kill.

I have a better idea for you.

Sheep Taly and TehBrawlGuy; neither was a PR kill, and both were kills likely on the merits of their play.

They are the players you want to listen to.

Additional reasoning for Commander Shepherd being town:
It is common belief that I am a 3p in this game. Were Commander Shepherd pun, I feel that Commander Shepherd would simply have shot our third neighbor N2 (a night we know was not a PR kill and was instead a play kill), so as to try and collaborate with me. (After all, what's the worst that could happen from a failed collaboration? They nightkill me, which they are able to do when sending the right person.)

This also works vice-versa, for why the neighbor is town. Were the neighbor pun, I'd expect the pun to have nightkilled Commander Shepherd, to try and collaborate with me. (After all, what's the worst that could happen from a failed collaboration? They nightkill me, which they are able to do when sending the right person.)

Given neither happened, it is then a safe assumption our neighborhood is all-town.
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Post Post #2645 (isolation #98) » Thu Jul 26, 2018 7:35 pm

Post by Punreader »

In post 1925, TehBrawlGuy wrote:also, because I didn't want to muck up the day any further and distract from PP lynch, I want to snipe this now in case I die - TW has been pinging me pretty hard for a long time, and I'd suggest you all reevaluate your TRs on him, because tbh I think our most likely loss scenario is keeping him alive through endgame if he's Scum. This is especially directed at Taly, who asked me about his townbloc earlier and whom I mostly agree with at this point. I'm definitely not committing to going after TW tomorrow, because I need to do my own reread and look at results of PP lynch, but it does bother me that he's so widely townread.
This in particular is what I am talking about and was the main factor in my shift in read on the worst.

I listened to the dead town.

You should, too.

Also relevant:
In post 1698, TehBrawlGuy wrote:Also disagree with lynching Fire today. I agree he's the most likely Scum out of the 4 linked by roles, + Maria's claim, but if he's town, leaving him alive forces the mafia to either get copped or deal with him for us.
His thoughts mirrored my own, on letting Fire Assassin live until today, but thinking him pun anyway.
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Post Post #2646 (isolation #99) » Thu Jul 26, 2018 7:40 pm

Post by Punreader »

In post 1840, Taly wrote:
DV
is my scumread though. It's based off PoE a good bit, but it's not for info solely.
In post 1682, Taly wrote:I'm highly suspect of
Fire
at this point

Espe/Vax/Dunn
are cleared to me, and based off roles. In the same breath, I feel
Maria
is cleared too, but it seems like nobody thinks so.
These may also be noteworthy.
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Post Post #2676 (isolation #100) » Sun Jul 29, 2018 6:13 am

Post by Punreader »

In post 2653, Shoshin wrote:Maybe I didn't die because of role, not sure. I'm a ranking immune townie, which I thought meant I couldn't die from rankings but apparently it might extend to all roles based on rankings.
This is tomorrow's lynch.
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Post Post #2677 (isolation #101) » Sun Jul 29, 2018 6:16 am

Post by Punreader »

In post 2662, the worst wrote:
In post 2660, Krazy wrote:the worst do you have another option other than vax today?
Shosh > Vax > Fire off the top of my head

I want massclaim tho.
This is transparently an openly pun agenda. I know that the worst is not literally the worst town player, but this sort of blatant cheeky push is right up his pun meta alley.
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Post Post #2678 (isolation #102) » Sun Jul 29, 2018 6:21 am

Post by Punreader »

In post 2674, Dunnstral wrote:I could vote fire today actually
Then do so.
Just because I am ranked higher than Fire does not guarantee that he dies. If I am roleblocker, redirected, or he has immunity (remember, pun via killing Maria may have her doc shot) be it commute, hide, rolestop, or protection, he lives.

It is safer to just Lynch him, as we know that will kill him.
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Post Post #2679 (isolation #103) » Sun Jul 29, 2018 6:29 am

Post by Punreader »

In post 2678, Punreader wrote:
In post 2674, Dunnstral wrote:I could vote fire today actually
Then do so.
Just because I am ranked higher than Fire does not guarantee that he dies. If I am roleblocker, redirected, or he has immunity (remember, pun via killing Maria may have her doc shot) be it commute, hide, rolestop, or protection, he lives.

It is safer to just Lynch him, as we know that will kill him.
My point being, my Vig can fail; our Lynch cannot. I would rather not take the risk. I'd shoot him if he wasn't lynched, but I would prefer the option with an absolute 0% failure rate.

This close to lylo, safe play takes priority over theoretically optimal play.

I am quite aware a Lynch plus a Vig is superior to just a Lynch. It is also much riskier if we Lynch someone who is town.
As commander shepherd is town, the risk of that Lynch is too high. We should Lynch the player with the highest chance of being pun: that is Fire Assassin.
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Post Post #2681 (isolation #104) » Sun Jul 29, 2018 7:07 am

Post by Punreader »

In post 2680, Shoshin wrote:Pun, I still don't get why you're so sure Shepard is town. What exactly has he done this game that makes you think he's town? Point to specific posts, and explain why they're town.
How many times must I requote my posts on the matter?
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Post Post #2821 (isolation #105) » Fri Aug 03, 2018 8:59 am

Post by Punreader »

I shot Fire Assassin, exactly as I said I would.

I am most suspicious of the worst, Shoshin, and DeasVail. (Outside chance of Espeonage, but this is doubtful.)

I can and will explain once no longer mobile posting.
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Post Post #2831 (isolation #106) » Fri Aug 03, 2018 12:13 pm

Post by Punreader »

In post 2821, Punreader wrote:I am most suspicious of the worst, Shoshin, and DeasVail. (Outside chance of Espeonage, but this is doubtful.)
So upon fact checking, my suspicion on Espeonage and to some extent DeasVail is not as warranted as I believed.

The origin of what the problem was:
In post 2813, Errantparabola wrote:
6. Commander Shepard
(MAFIA)

Average:
5.67
Number of 10s:
3
Number of 0s:
2
In post 1985, Punreader wrote:5. Nahdia:
3 10s
1 9
1 8
1 7
2+1 6s
3 5s
3 4s
1 3
2 0s

30 + 9 + 8 + 7 + 18 + 15 + 12 + 3 = 102
3 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 3 + 3 + 3 + 1 + 2 = 18
102 / 18 = 5.67
Commander Shepherd had the
exact
score, down to the decimal point, he should have had.
But by my calculation, he should have been ranked one position higher.

I assumed pun foul play at work, with a player in {Dunnstral, DeasVail, Espeonage, Shoshin} being ranked higher.
As I knew Dunnstral to be town, I eliminated him.
I still feel as if Fire Assassin botching a guilty claim on a punbuddy is unlikely, thus why I stated "outside chance of Espeonage".
So that left DeasVail or Shoshin as candidates for having an artificially-inflated score above what it should have been.

Except...
In post 2817, Errantparabola wrote:
5. Dunnstral
(TOWN)

Average:
5.78
Number of 10s:
3
Number of 0s:
0
Dunnstral was town as predicted, yet
was
the anomaly; I erroneously believed that the anomaly must originate from pun, but now we know it did not.

I want to recalculate Shoshin's score (Shoshin, due to role, should be immune to NicoRobin's extra 0, and thus, be ranked with a score higher) and then give an updated version of with the new flips.
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Post Post #2833 (isolation #107) » Fri Aug 03, 2018 12:39 pm

Post by Punreader »

Spoiler: Predicted Rankings
1. Chara/Krazy:
9 10s
1 9
1+1 8s
3 6s
1 5
1 3
1 0

90 + 9 + 16 + 18 + 5 + 3 = 141
9 + 1 + 2 + 3 + 1 + 1 + 1 = 18
141 / 18 = 7.83

2. the worst:
1 10
3 9s
1 8
5 7s
2+1 6s
3 5s
1 2

10 + 27 + 8 + 40 + 18 + 15 + 2 = 120
1 + 3 + 1 + 5 + 3 + 3 + 1 = 17
120 / 17 = 7.06

3. Taly:
7 10s
2 9s
1 8
1 5
1 4
1+1 3s
1 2
1 1
2 0s

70 + 18 + 8 + 5 + 4 + 6 + 2 + 1 = 114
7 + 2 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 2 + 1 + 1 + 2 = 18
114 / 18 = 6.33

4. TehBrawlGuy:
4 10s
3 9s
2 8s
1 6
1 5
1 4
1 3
2+1 2s
2 0s

40 + 27 + 16 + 6 + 5 + 4 + 3 + 6 = 107
4 + 3 + 2 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 3 + 2 = 18
107 / 18 = 5.94 (5.944)

5. Nahdia/Commander Shepherd:
3 10s
1 9
1 8
1 7
2+1 6s
3 5s
3 4s
1 3
2 0s

30 + 9 + 8 + 7 + 18 + 15 + 12 + 3 = 102
3 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 3 + 3 + 3 + 1 + 2 = 18
102 / 18 = 5.67

6. Dunnstral:
3 10s
2 9s
1+1 7s
2 6s
2 5s
1.5 4s
4 2s

30 + 18 + 14 + 12 + 10 + 6 + 8 = 98
3 + 2 + 3 + 2 + 2 + 1.5 + 4 = 17.5
98 / 17.5 = 5.60

7. Shoshin:
1 10
3 8s
2 7s
3 6s
3 4s
1 3
2 3s
1+1-1 0s

10 + 24 + 14 + 18 + 12 + 3 + 6 = 87
1 + 3 + 2 + 3 + 3 + 1 + 2 + 2 -1 = 16
87 / 16 = 5.375

8. DeasVail:
1 10
1 8
5 6s
5 5s
3+1 4s
1 0

10 + 8 + 30 + 25 + 16 = 89
1 + 1 + 5 + 5 + 4 + 1 = 17
89 / 17 = 5.24 (5.244)

9. Espeonage:
3+1 10s
1 9
1 8
1 7
2 6s
2 4s
1 3
1 2
4 0s

40 + 9 + 8 + 7 + 12 + 8 + 3 + 2 = 89
4 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 2 + 2 + 1 + 1 + 4 = 17
89 / 17 = 5.24 (5.235)

10. MariaR:
2 10s
1 9
2 8s
4 6s
1 5
1+1 4s
1 3
1 1
3 0s

20 + 9 + 16 + 24 + 5 + 8 + 3 + 1 = 86
2 + 1 + 2 + 4 + 1 + 2 + 1 + 1 + 3 = 17
86 / 17 = 5.06

11. Pine:
4+1 10s
1 5
5.5 4s
2 2s
1 1
3 0s

50 + 5 + 22 + 4 + 1 = 82
5 + 1 + 5.5 + 2 + 1 + 3 = 17.5
82 / 17.5 = 4.69 (4.685)

12. Punreader:
6 10s
1 8
2 7s
2 5s
2 4s
1 3
3+1 * 2 0s (8 0s)
60 + 8 + 14 + 10 + 8 + 3 = 103
6 + 1 + 2 + 2 + 2 + 1 + 8 = 22
103 / 22 = 4.68

13. Screenplay/ManWithNoName/guacamole:
1 10
3 7s
4 6s
2+1 5s
1 3
1 2
1 1
3 0s

10 + 21 + 24 + 15 + 3 + 2 + 1 = 76
1 + 3 + 4 + 3 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 3 = 17
76 / 17 = 4.47

14. Fire Assassin:
2 10s
2 9s
1 8
3 5s
3 4s
1 3
1 2
2 1s
2+1 0s

20 + 18 + 8 + 15 + 12 + 3 + 2 + 2 = 80
2 + 2 + 1 + 3 + 3 + 1 + 1 + 2 + 3 = 18
80 / 18 = 4.44

15. Vaxkiller:
2 10s
3 6s
2+1 5s
3 4s
1 1
5 0s

20 + 18 + 15 + 12 + 1 = 66
2 + 3 + 3 + 3 + 1 + 5 = 17
66 / 17 = 3.88

16. PenguinPower:
1 10
1+1 9s
2 8s
1 7
1 6
1 5
.5 4s
1 2
1 1
7 0s

10 + 18 + 16 + 7 + 6 + 5 + 2 + 2 + 1 = 67
1 + 2 + 2 + 1 + 1 + 1 + .5 + 1 + 1 + 7 = 17.5
67 / 17.5 = 3.83

17. NicoRobin:
1+1 10s
2 4s
1 3
1 2
3 1s
8 0s

20 + 8 + 3 + 2 + 3 = 36
2 + 2 + 1 + 1 + 3 + 8 = 17
36 / 17 = 2.12

18. Lovebird:
3 5s
3 3s
1 2
5+1 1s
4 0s

15 + 9 + 2 + 6 = 32
3 + 3 + 1 + 6 + 4 = 17
32 / 17 = 1.88
PREDICTED DATA RESULTS:
18. Lovebird
1.88
0 10s; 4 0s

17. NicoRobin
2.12
1+1 10s; 8 0s

16. PenguinPower
3.83 (EXACTLY ACCURATE)
1 10; 7 0s

14. Fire Assassin
4.44 (EXACTLY ACCURATE)
2 10s; 2+1 0s (...I don't know where the extra comes from?)

11. Pine (DISCREPENCY DUE TO ME BEING RANKED HIGHER)
4.69 (4.685)
4+1 10s; 3 0s

10. MariaR
5.06
2 10s; 3 0s

6. Dunnstral
5.60
3 10s; 0 0s

5. Nahdia/Commander Shepherd
5.67 (EXACTLY ACCURATE)
3 10s; 2 0s

4. TehBrawlGuy
5.94 (5.944) (EXACTLY ACCURATE)
4 10s; 2 0s

3. Taly
6.33 (EXACTLY ACCURATE)
7 10s; 2 0s

ACTUAL DATA RESULTS:
18. Lovebird
1.78
(-.10 difference between prediction)

0 10s; 4 0s

17. NicoRobin
2.06
(-.06 difference between prediction)

1+1 10s; 8 0s

16. PenguinPower
3.83
1 10; 7 0s

14. Fire Assassin
4.44
2 10s; 3 0s

12. Pine
4.67
(-.015 difference between prediction)

4+1 10s; 3 0s

9. MariaR
(+1 position)

5.11
(+.05 difference between prediction)

2 10s; 3 0s

6. Nahdia/Commander Shepherd
(-1 position)

5.67
3 10s; 2 0s

5. Dunnstral
(+1 position)

5.78
(+.18 difference between prediction)

3 10s; 0 0s

4. TehBrawlGuy
5.94
4 10s; 2 0s

3. Taly
6.33
7 10s; 2 0s

What I can make of this: one of Shoshin/DeasVail/Espeonage is ranked lower than they should be by the prediction. MariaR has a (slightly) higher score than she should, but 5.11 should still net her rank 10; the only way for her to get rank 9 is if one of those three is rank 10 in her place.

Dunnstral's ranked higher than he should be (I would say his ranking is the only ranking higher than statistical significance), but I have a suspicion this also ties into why my shot on Pine worked when it shouldn't have; I have a theory that Dunnstral and I, sharing the neighborhood with Commander Shepherd, had our ratings artificially boosted (but not by much) by the pun, thus why I am most likely rank 11, and Dunnstral is rank 5.

It is also possible Pine's rankings play a part in this, and it is also possible my role modification applications are not identical to the ones the mod is using.
Specifically I am referring to how NicoRobin's role would interact with mine and Shoshin's; my score and Shoshin's score are directly impacted on how our modifiers interact with her modifier.

Of course, pragmatically I don't think much use can be gotten out of this now that I look at it. Not quite a waste of time, but an unproductive venture to pursue further, unless someone else can decipher a nugget I'm overlooking.
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Post Post #2844 (isolation #108) » Fri Aug 03, 2018 12:58 pm

Post by Punreader »

In post 840, Fire Assassin wrote:Fire Assassin - 10
Nahdia/Commander Shepherd - 10
Chara/Krazy - 10
MariaR - 9
TehBrawlGuy - 8
the worst - 7

Shoshin - 6

Srceenplay/ManWithNoName/guacamole - 6
DeasVail - 5
Dunnstral - 4
Pine - 4
PenguinPower - 4
Punreader - 3
Taly - 2
Lovebird - 1
Espeonage - 0
Vaxkiller - 0
NicoRobin - 0
Quite possibly another source of the discrepancy is Fire Assassin right here; one of those 4s is actually a 5, and Dunnstral being the 5 would boost his score.

As far as data goes, the only unflipped name in the bottom half of his readslist (aside from me and Vaxkiller who is MariaR cop cleared) is Espeonage. I maintain "unlikely to be punbuddies" as the best answer; it remains possible, but would not be my first assumption. Or second, or third. We thus have this section to analyze, as almost all are alive:
In post 840, Fire Assassin wrote:
Fire Assassin
- 10
Nahdia/Commander Shepherd
- 10
Chara/Krazy - 10
MariaR
- 9
TehBrawlGuy
- 8
the worst - 7
Shoshin - 6
Srceenplay/ManWithNoName/guacamole - 6
DeasVail - 5
I do not believe Fire Assassin would so blatantly rate both his teammates as ten. (Aside from my townread on Chara not having faded.)

From this, you'd then have a pool of {the worst, Shoshin, guacamole, DeasVail}.

My assumption would be, one punbuddy very high (Nahdia/Commander Shepherd), one reasonably high ({the worst, Shoshin, guacamole}), and the final punbuddy more middle ({Shoshin, guacamole, DeasVail}).

I still maintain my townread on guacamole, especially given as how were he pun I'd expect a vastly different gamestate than what we currently possess.
In post 838, Nahdia wrote:
Nahdia/Commander Shepherd
- 10
Chara/Krazy - 10
Punreader - 10
Fire Assassin
- 9
PenguinPower - 8
the worst - 7

Espeonage - 6
Shoshin - 6

Taly - 5
DeasVail - 5

TehBrawlGuy - 4
Pine - 4
MariaR - 3
Dunnstral - 2
Lovebird - 1
Srceenplay - 0
Vaxkiller - 0
NicoRobin - 0
Worth mentioning is that Nahdia used the same formatting as Fire Assasin:
Name - rank

May be worth seeing if two other players used that format; if exactly two other players did, there is a chance however remote that the punteam made a punslip of sorts by the wording of their rankings. (I noted this as a possibility before, but needed at least one pun flip before beginning my search.) I know at least one other did.

However, from a data standpoint, these rankings look awfully familiar; DeasVail, Shoshin and the worst are all ranked identically at 5/6/7, with the other flipped pun ranked near the top. Most of the bottom contains players we know to be town. The highest unflipped, noncleared player in this is DeasVail, at 5. Same as before.

This is quite interesting to me!
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Post Post #2847 (isolation #109) » Fri Aug 03, 2018 1:07 pm

Post by Punreader »

Spoiler: Chara/Krazy's formatting
In post 888, Chara wrote:Chara
Taly
TehBrawlGuy
Nahdia
Punreader
the worst
Shoshin
MariaR
Dunnstral
DeasVail
Espeonage
Fire Assassin
Lovebird
PenguinPower
NicoRobin
Vaxkiller
Pine
Srceenplay

i'm just upset about this list now with the night results. :<
Not Name - rank.
In post 846, DeasVail wrote:
Spoiler: My Rankings
10 - Taly
10 - Punreader
10 - DeasVail
9 - the worst
8 - Shoshin
7 - Screenplay
6 - Chara
6 - Vaxkiller
5 - Nahdia
5 - Fire Assassin
4 - Pine
4 - Dunnstral
3 - TehBrawlGuy
2 - Espeonage
1 - Lovebird
0 - NicoRobin
0 - MariaR
0 - PenguinPower
Rank - Name. (Inverse of Fire Assassin and Nahdia formatting.)
Spoiler: Espeonage formatting
In post 849, Espeonage wrote:10 - Myself
10 - Vaxkiller
10 - Dunnstral
9 - TehBrawlGuy
8 - Taly
7 - the worst
6 - Deas Veil
6 - Penguinpower
5 - MariaR
5 - Chara
4 - punreader
4 - Nahdia
3 - Shoshin
2 - Srceenplay
1 - Lovebird
0 - Nico Robin
0 - Pine
0 - Fire Assassin
Rank - Name. Inverse, same as DeasVail.
Spoiler: ManWithNoName/guacamole's formatting
In post 1454, ManWithNoName wrote:10. Srceenplay
10. Taly
10. TheBrawlGuy
9. Chara
8. Shoshin
7. The Worst
6. vaxkiller
6. Dunnstral
5. Fire Assassin
5. Nahdia
4. pine
4. pun reader
3. lovebird
2. nico
1. mariar
0. deasvail
0. espe
0. PP
Not name - rank.
Spoiler: Shoshin's formatting
In post 942, Shoshin wrote:10 - myself
10 - Taly
10 - Chara
9 - the worst
8 - TBG
7 - Screen
6 - DV
6 - Dunn
5 - Pun
5 - Vax
4 - Nico
4 - Nahdia
3 - Espeonage
2 - Fire
1 - Pine
0 - Lovebird
0 - Penguin
0 - MariaR
Rank - name. Inverse.
Spoiler: the worst's formatting
In post 842, the worst wrote:OK w/e
10 - the worst
10 - Taly
10 - Chara
9 - Espeonage
8 - MariaR
7 - Nahdia
6 - TehBrawlGuy
6 - DeasVail
5 - Punreader
5 - PenguinPower
4 - Vaxkiller
4 - Pine
3 - Shoshin
2 - Dunnstral
1 - Fire Assassin
0 - Srceenplay
0 - ReubenWasFine
0 - NicoRobin
Rank - name. Inverse.
Spoiler: Vaxkiller's formatting
In post 891, Vaxkiller wrote:Vaxkiller
Pine
Nahdia
Fire Assassin
PenguinPower
Punreader
Srceenplay
DeasVail
the worst
Lovebird
Espeonage
Shoshin
Chara
Dunnstral
NicoRobin
MariaR
Taly
TehBrawlGuy
[/quote] Not name-rank.

Well
darn
.

It was worth a try at least.

Pet theory is that both remaining pun used rank - name as their formatting, but I really got nothing but gut feeling to justify it.
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Post Post #2848 (isolation #110) » Fri Aug 03, 2018 1:10 pm

Post by Punreader »

Hmm.

VOTE: Shoshin.

I may be wrong about the worst being pun.
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Post Post #2849 (isolation #111) » Fri Aug 03, 2018 1:14 pm

Post by Punreader »

Important question which makes a difference to VCA:
In post 2816, Errantparabola wrote:
Passive: Siphon Soul
(
Prepare the rituals!
) -- If someone is killed during the Night Phase and you were voting them the previous Day Phase, you gain 1 Soul.
MOD: Is this the end-of-day votecount only, or does it apply during the whole day phase?

That is, if Fire Assassin voted a player during the day but switched his vote elsewhere, and the player he switched off of died during the night, would it count?


Tremendous difference between a yes or no here in terms of how to interpret data.
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Post Post #2851 (isolation #112) » Fri Aug 03, 2018 1:50 pm

Post by Punreader »

In post 947, Errantparabola wrote:
Espeonage
(2): DeasVail,
Fire Assassin

Vaxkiller
(1): the worst
In post 982, Errantparabola wrote:
Fire Assassin
(4):
PenguinPower, Dunnstral
, the worst,
Taly

Espeonage
(2): DeasVail,
Fire Assassin

MariaR
(1): Shoshin
In post 1123, Errantparabola wrote:
Espeonage
(6): DeasVail,
Fire Assassin
,
TehBrawlGuy
, the worst,
Taly, PenguinPower

Fire Assassin
(1):
Dunnstral

MariaR
(1): Shoshin
In post 1083, Errantparabola wrote:
Espeonage
(6): DeasVail,
Fire Assassin
, the worst,
Taly, PenguinPower
, Shoshin
Fire Assassin
(2):
Dunnstral
, Espeonage
Not Voting
(7): Punreader, MariaR/Chara, Nahdia, Srceenplay, Vaxkiller,
TehBrawlGuy
In post 1254, Errantparabola wrote:
Fire Assassin
(3): Espeonage,
MariaR
/Chara
Dunnstral
(1):
Fire Assassin

Not Voting
(11): Punreader, Nahdia, Srceenplay, Vaxkiller, Shoshin,
Taly, PenguinPower, Dunnstral
, DeasVail,
TehBrawlGuy
, the worst
In post 1354, Errantparabola wrote:
PenguinPower
(2):
TehBrawlGuy
, Punreader
Dunnstral
(1):
Fire Assassin

Fire Assassin
(1): Espeonage
Shoshin
(1):
PenguinPower

Not Voting
(10): Nahdia, Srceenplay, Vaxkiller, Shoshin,
Taly, Dunnstral
, DeasVail, the worst,
MariaR
/Chara
In post 1445, Errantparabola wrote:
PenguinPowe
r
(4):
TehBrawlGuy
, Punreader, DeasVail, Shoshin
Nahdia
(3):
MariaR
/Chara,
Dunnstral

Dunnstral
(1):
Fire Assassin

Fire Assassin
(1): Espeonage
Shoshin
(1):
PenguinPower

Not Voting
(5): Nahdia, Srceenplay, Vaxkiller,
Taly
, the worst
In post 1518, Errantparabola wrote:
PenguinPower
(6):
TehBrawlGuy
, Punreader, DeasVail, Shoshin,
Vaxkiller
, ManWithNoName
Nahdia
(5):
MariaR
/Chara,
Dunnstral, PenguinPower, Taly

Dunnstral
(1):
Fire Assassin

Fire Assassin
(1): Espeonage
Not Voting
(2): Nahdia, the worst
In post 1820, Errantparabola wrote:
Commander Shepard
(5):
MariaR
/Chara,
Dunnstral, Taly
, Shoshin
PenguinPower
(5):
TehBrawlGuy
, Punreader, DeasVail,
Vaxkiller
,
Fire Assassin

Shoshin
(3):
PenguinPower
,
Commander Shepard
, the worst
Fire Assassin
(2): Espeonage, ManWithNoName
If I know Commander Shepherd, and I do, this sudden drastic shift in wagon composition is directly the result of his actions. Compare the VCs from (before his replace-in) to the VCs from (after his replace-in).

The strong contrast there is validating a theory of mine, wherein Shoshin is by far the best vote for today, and Espeonage is a fine candidate for the final pun.
In post 1931, Errantparabola wrote:
PenguinPower
(8):
TehBrawlGuy
, Punreader, DeasVail,
Vaxkiller
,
Fire Assassin
, ManWithNoName, Shoshin,
Commander Shepard

Commander Shepard
(3):
MariaR
/Chara,
Dunnstral

Shoshin
(2):
PenguinPower
, the worst
Fire Assassin
(1): Espeonage
In post 1960, Errantparabola wrote:
Commander Shepard
(3): Dunnstral,
Fire Assassin
, ManWithNoName
Shoshin
(2): Punreader, the worst
Fire Assassin
(1): Espeonage
In post 1996, Errantparabola wrote:
Shoshin
(3): Punreader, the worst,
Commander Shepard

Commander Shepard
(2):
Fire Assassin
, ManWithNoName
Fire Assassin
(1): Espeonage
In post 2076, Errantparabola wrote:
Commander Shepard
(2):
Fire Assassin
, ManWithNoName
Shoshin
(2): Punreader, the worst
Fire Assassin
(1): Espeonage
Vaxkiller
(1):
Commander Shepard
In post 2150, Errantparabola wrote:
Commander Shepard
(5):
Fire Assassin
, ManWithNoName,
Dunnstral
, Shoshin,
Vaxkiller

Shoshin
(3): Punreader, the worst,
Commander Shepard

Fire Assassin
(1): Espeonage
In post 2304, Errantparabola wrote:
Commander Shepard
(4):
Fire Assassin
,
Dunnstral
, Shoshin,
Vaxkiller

Fire Assassin
(4): Espeonage, ManWithNoName, the worst,
MariaR

Shoshin
(2): Punreader,
Commander Shepard
I'd like to point out at some point: it is possible, but unlikely, for guacamole to be pun.
Espeonage has a rather decent chance of being pun, but it is not assured.
Shoshin is as good as lock-scum from VCA at this point.
I will not entertain godfather paranoia for Vaxkiller, even though objectively by VCA he has terrible positioning. (His pattern matches what I would expect from pun and his shot remains unproven.)
In post 2373, Errantparabola wrote:
Commander Shepard
(5):
Fire Assassin
, Shoshin,
Vaxkiller
,
MariaR
, DeasVail
Shoshin
(3): Punreader,
Commander Shepard
, the worst
Fire Assassin
(2): Espeonage, guacamole
DeasVail has a
chance
of being pun, a chance higher than that of guacamole, but would not be my first choice.
In post 2669, Errantparabola wrote:
Commander Shepard
(4):
Dunnstral
, Shoshin, Krazy/DeasVail
Fire Assassin
(1): Punreader
Shoshin
(1):
Vaxkiller
In post 2812, Errantparabola wrote:
Commander Shepard
(6):
Dunnstral
, Shoshin, Krazy/DeasVail,
Fire Assassin
,
Vaxkiller

Shoshin
(3):
Vaxkiller
,
Commander Shepard
, guacamole
Fire Assassin
(1): Punreader
Not Voting
(2): Espeonage, the worst
This just about confirms my conclusions.

I will be clearing Vaxkiller because I will ignore the possibility of a pun godfather as that is stupid to consider that a one-shot cop JUST SO HAPPENED to target a pun godfather. Commander Shepherd could redirect actions on punbuddies, but only to himself; if Vaxkiller were pun, he would still be a guilty result if the actual investigation were Commander Shepherd.

Commander Shepherd could not, say, redirect actions on punbuddies onto, say, Dunnstral. And if he could, then I refuse to entertain the idea a one-shot cop JUST SO HAPPENED to be redirected from pun onto town in the one and only way possible. So he is still cleared.

I have good reason to believe the worst is town.
I have reasonable evidence suggesting Chara/Krazy is town.
guacamole has a chance, but is unlikely, to be pun.
DeasVail has a decent chance at being pun.
Espeonage has a high chance at being pun.

Shoshin is basically confpun.

So from this, Shoshin is the clear lynch.

I may need to explain why this VCA is so damning for Shoshin even though it should be readily apparent to people.
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Post Post #2854 (isolation #113) » Fri Aug 03, 2018 1:57 pm

Post by Punreader »

In post 2850, Krazy wrote:What is the defense of the worst at the moment?
For a start, Shoshin is the better lynch, and Commander Shepherd would not be so confident in victory were the worst pun. He was free of suspicion earlier in the game, sure enough, but a prime suspect of nearly half the living players as of yesterday. He's someone who can't make endgame, especially not off of his handling of Commander Shepherd.

Also I have very good reason to believe that if the worst were one of the last pun, he would be doing one particular thing different than what he's doing. (I wish I had a way of hinting at this without giving it away, but alas.)
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Post Post #2858 (isolation #114) » Fri Aug 03, 2018 2:07 pm

Post by Punreader »

In post 2853, Shoshin wrote:Pun, you're a lot worse at this game thank you think you are, especially when it comes to analyzing Shepard.
To the contrary, Commander Shepherd himself indicated that I was almost exactly right on him. He had to play in a
very specific way
in order to fool me. That very specific way has its drawbacks; with his death, it exposes information he did not want revealed, especially coupled with Fire Assassin's death overnight.

Commander Shepherd said he was trying to get himself lynched.

Evidence suggests he was not lying in that claim.

When Commander Shepherd tries to get himself lynched, there is a very specific pattern he must follow in order to achieve that goal.

It involves heavy amounts of bussing, both of his punbuddies on him, and him of his punbuddies.

The players who most frequently voted one another were Commander Shepherd, Espeonage, Fire Assassin, and yourself. All four have votes almost always parked on another within the grouping. This pattern exists most strongly
after
Commander Shepherd replaced in and was almost entirely absent prior to Commander Shepherd replacing in.

I repeat. shows no pun voting Commander Shepherd, and all town flipped save for Krazy (who is likely town). Your vote was on the alternative wagon to the slot, PenguinPower. Come , after Commander Shepherd's in the game, suddenly you're voting him.

For most of the game, red has been voting red.

So I know that you're pun because I know the pattern used. It fooled me at the time, true enough, but it had to come from a very specific gamestate in order to do so.
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Post Post #2859 (isolation #115) » Fri Aug 03, 2018 2:09 pm

Post by Punreader »

In post 2855, Shoshin wrote:Pun, apply your defense of the worst to me because it actually applies with greater force.
To the contrary.
As the counterwagon to flipped pun, players would be likely to altogether clear you.

This would explain confidence in victory; if Commander Shepherd was confident that his flip would make people treat you as conftown when you're his punbuddy, his strategy would indeed be sensible.
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Post Post #2862 (isolation #116) » Fri Aug 03, 2018 2:16 pm

Post by Punreader »

In post 1587, Shoshin wrote:
In post 1581, Taly wrote:Shoshin, what do you think of Nahdia?
I don't remember anything she's done today. My thoughts on D1 were initially townie - she made some points about town PP that made sense to me, and I liked something else about her that I can't remember now - but when I reread to finalize my rankings I started to doubt whether she was town. I felt pretty strongly that PP was scum so I didn't like her defense anymore, and the rest of her posting wasn't very good, she wanted to end the day without much interest in scumhunting.

I think if you suspect Nahdia you should take a closer look at Maria, because Maria's basically a much scummier version of Nahdia as far as I can tell. I haven't made a case on Maria yet but when I do I'll make a point of comparing to Nahdia so you can see the parallels that I'm thinking about.
To reiterate, at this point, Shoshin was pushing for the lynch of PenguinPower. This is the first hint of any real comment on Nahdia's alignment and it isn't even a case; it's a "if PenguinPower is scum, Nahdia could be scum by associatives"...which relies on something we know is an impossibility, PenguinPower flipping town.

Because the whole logic train was reliant on an impossible flip, upon the actual flip there was nothing stopping Shoshin from reconsidering the thought and concluding the slot was town.
In post 1597, Shoshin wrote:Alright, picked a random town Penguin game to see if he scumhunts by looking at the players who townread him.

viewtopic.php?f=83&t=75471

I skimmed his iso and he did no such thing. I'm assuming he just doesn't actually do that unless he pulls up some games proving otherwise. So he's scum here, and he's scum for exactly the reasons I've said.
Example of what Shoshin was focusing on.
In post 1656, Shoshin wrote:
In post 1649, Commander Shepard wrote:VOTE: Shoshin

And pray tell why did you unvote PP?

Even in the worst case scenario where I read and hammer before you got to the thread in your opinion I would be hammering scum.

And don’t say the “quickhammer” possibility because your unvote came posts before.
I unvoted because the game he linked shows him questioning townreads so I want to reevaluate without him getting lynched.

If you're scum, your goals entering the thread wouldn't have been hammering PP (that assumes PP is town), they would have been faking town-tells and securing a mislynch.

The first thing you did is try getting Chara to townread you through your "I didn't quickhammer" logic. Except we both know that you're better than that as scum and you wouldn't have hammered PP regardless of his alignment.

Your reasoning assumes PP is town. If you're both scum, you don't hammer in that situation because it doesn't matter if he's lynched or you're lynched, what matters is trying to change town's thinking towards mislynching.

And now you're voting town. Is there any reason I shouldn't scumread you for this?
Yet the moment Commander Shepherd comes in, Shoshin suddenly has a change of tune and pushes the slot.

That change in read is artificial. And it matches the timeline.

Shoshin will flip pun.
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Post Post #2867 (isolation #117) » Fri Aug 03, 2018 2:25 pm

Post by Punreader »

In post 2860, Shoshin wrote:I switch my vote from Penguin to Shepard at a time when there's no reason to do so as scum. Penguin's lynch was all but assured at that point.
That is precisely why it was the time to switch votes as pun. Being on a mislynch would negatively impact how players viewed your slot; bussing a punbuddy, on the other hand, would give lategame town credit.
In post 2861, Shoshin wrote:Shepard wasn't trying to get himself lynched.
Except he was. His wagon and eventual lynch support this quite strongly. When pun are trying to get pun lynched, they can face strong resistance from town who feel the wagon is pun-driven...because it is in fact pun-driven. Thus the no lynch in spite of trying to get lynched. But past a certain point, town rally behind the pun and give them what they want.

The proof is in Fire Assassin.

We know for a fact he, 100%, was bussing.

We know for a fact that Commander Shepherd, 100%, was bussing Fire Assassin.

We know for a fact that cross-bus happened.

Do you deny it?

Of course not. It's evidence readily available for all.

So then there is a logical train to follow from that.

If the pun were heavily cross-bussing, what was the end plan of the cross-bussing?

All evidence points to deliberately trying to lynch a pun player.

And if he were deliberately trying to lynch a pun player (in this case, himself), it follows that there would be players who should be cleared from it.

We know it wasn't meant to clear Fire Assassin, because I stated I was going to shoot him upon a Commander Shepherd lynch and I wouldn't magically change my mind upon seeing his flip. I was still going to shoot Fire Assassin, and he knew I was still going to shoot Fire Assassin.

So if Fire Assassin wasn't the player meant to be cleared from the cross-bussing...

...Who was?

There are only a select few number of candidates.
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Post Post #2875 (isolation #118) » Fri Aug 03, 2018 2:34 pm

Post by Punreader »

I repeat:
In post 2851, Punreader wrote:
In post 1960, Errantparabola wrote:
Commander Shepard
(3): Dunnstral,
Fire Assassin
, ManWithNoName
Shoshin
(2): Punreader, the worst
Fire Assassin
(1): Espeonage
In post 1996, Errantparabola wrote:
Shoshin
(3): Punreader, the worst,
Commander Shepard

Commander Shepard
(2):
Fire Assassin
, ManWithNoName
Fire Assassin
(1): Espeonage
In post 2076, Errantparabola wrote:
Commander Shepard
(2):
Fire Assassin
, ManWithNoName
Shoshin
(2): Punreader, the worst
Fire Assassin
(1): Espeonage
Vaxkiller
(1):
Commander Shepard
In post 2150, Errantparabola wrote:
Commander Shepard
(5):
Fire Assassin
, ManWithNoName,
Dunnstral
, Shoshin,
Vaxkiller

Shoshin
(3): Punreader, the worst,
Commander Shepard

Fire Assassin
(1): Espeonage
In post 2304, Errantparabola wrote:
Commander Shepard
(4):
Fire Assassin
,
Dunnstral
, Shoshin,
Vaxkiller

Fire Assassin
(4): Espeonage, ManWithNoName, the worst,
MariaR

Shoshin
(2): Punreader,
Commander Shepard
In post 2373, Errantparabola wrote:
Commander Shepard
(5):
Fire Assassin
, Shoshin,
Vaxkiller
,
MariaR
, DeasVail
Shoshin
(3): Punreader,
Commander Shepard
, the worst
Fire Assassin
(2): Espeonage, guacamole
DeasVail has a
chance
of being pun, a chance higher than that of guacamole, but would not be my first choice.
In post 2669, Errantparabola wrote:
Commander Shepard
(4):
Dunnstral
, Shoshin, Krazy/DeasVail
Fire Assassin
(1): Punreader
Shoshin
(1):
Vaxkiller
In post 2812, Errantparabola wrote:
Commander Shepard
(6):
Dunnstral
, Shoshin, Krazy/DeasVail,
Fire Assassin
,
Vaxkiller

Shoshin
(3):
Vaxkiller
,
Commander Shepard
, guacamole
Fire Assassin
(1): Punreader
Not Voting
(2): Espeonage, the worst
We know, 100% for a fact, Fire Assassin and Commander Shepherd were cross-bussing.
We know, 100% for a fact, I stated I was going to shoot Fire Assassin.
We can deduce, then, that the cross-buss between the two was not to give Fire Assassin town credit, given as how he was set to die.
We can then deduce, that if Fire Assassin was not the player being set up to get towncred, some other player was.

We can then reasonably infer, that if Fire Assassin was also set to die along side Commander Shepherd.
That Commander Shepherd was quite confident that once he flipped, his remaining two punbuddies would be positioned well enough to win.

Vaxkiller is possible in that regard because he is being cleared via a cop innocent, but as I refuse to believe in a godfather to counter a 1x cop and the redirect would not work in a way to falsely clear him, he is conftown and thus cannot be someone that's Commander Shepherd's punbuddy.

Commander Shepherd and Shoshin have been crossvoting for pretty much the entire game, with the exception of where the two one after another were the hammer on PenguinPower.
Espeonage has been voting Fire Assassin the whole game. If any player were to be cleared by Fire Assassin's flip, the assumption would be him, especially given Fire Assassin's claimed result on Espeonage.

It is simply the conclusion which makes the most sense.
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Post Post #2876 (isolation #119) » Fri Aug 03, 2018 2:39 pm

Post by Punreader »

In post 2304, Errantparabola wrote:
Commander Shepard
(4):
Fire Assassin
, Dunnstral, Shoshin, Vaxkiller
I would like to point out.
During that night, Commander Shepherd asked me to shoot him.
Had he died, Fire Assassin would have gained a soul.


Fire Assassin had no souls the entire game because he was always on the lynch of the day; he never got to use his role.

Commander Shepherd lobbying for his own death that night would then be a win-win.

If he didn't die, then he would end up doing exactly what happened; if he did die, then Fire Assassin would have a roleblock to use.
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Post Post #2951 (isolation #120) » Sat Aug 04, 2018 8:30 am

Post by Punreader »

I hate to break it to you all who are trying to mislynch the worst, but guacamole connected the worst and I together today and he roleclaimed in his message to me well before his roleclaim out here.
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Post Post #2952 (isolation #121) » Sat Aug 04, 2018 8:33 am

Post by Punreader »

In post 2951, Punreader wrote:I hate to break it to you all who are trying to mislynch the worst, but guacamole connected the worst and I together today and he roleclaimed in his message to me well before his roleclaim out here.
He actually fullclaimed to me in fact, so I will be able to vouch for him when he fullclaims to others.

Give him what he's asking for.
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Post Post #2953 (isolation #122) » Sat Aug 04, 2018 8:45 am

Post by Punreader »

In post 2917, the worst wrote:Punreader - BP to all players ranked higher, vig to all players ranked lower 
DeasVail - cats??!?!!!?
Espeonage - had a bet with Dunn that Vaxk would be ranked higher han FA (lost)
the worst - Flavor cop (of a sorts)
Shoshin - Ranking immune townie
Krazy - roleblocking thing(/vote combiner)???
guacamole - Connector
Vaxkiller - shady unproven vig claim; cop cleared by MariaR
Added a few details missed before to this.
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Post Post #2963 (isolation #123) » Sat Aug 04, 2018 12:40 pm

Post by Punreader »

In post 2959, guacamole wrote:@pun how big is this full claim you got in a msg from the worst?
A couple of sentences. Less than the character limit by some margin.
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Post Post #3136 (isolation #124) » Sun Aug 05, 2018 10:02 am

Post by Punreader »

In post 2993, Vaxkiller wrote:Like pun has me nervous, hes talking about me possibly being a godfather...
Were you reading my posts?

This sure shows otherwise.

Because that is literally the opposite of what I was advocating; I was specifically saying that you
aren't
a godfather and I struggle to understand how you can have such a reading comprehension failure as to think I was saying you were one.
In post 2970, the worst wrote:
In post 2951, Punreader wrote:I hate to break it to you all who are trying to mislynch the worst, but guacamole connected the worst and I together today and he roleclaimed in his message to me well before his roleclaim out here.
that was meant to be our secret :c
Do forgive me for revealing something I thought was within guacamole's ability to reveal himself. I made it no secret prior to explicitly claiming this that I had received something from you; all I did was make the method known rather than implied.
In post 3031, Shoshin wrote:the worst, you claimed in full to Pun, including how you used your role and the results?
He claimed his target of last night, that being myself. He did not claim prior targets, but did fully claim the nature of his role. Specifically,
In post 3065, the worst wrote:I'm chevre--I can check players' positions in the scoring, but only whether they are higher or lower than my previous target. you all might have noticed my repeated insistence that we would find out if scum had been fucking with the rankings, and how much work I put into collating information originally.

Penguin < Dunnstral < myself > Punreader

I didn't really realize until Guac paired us up but I'm actually almost certain that my role's existence spews Pun as town.
This is almost word for word what he sent to me. Specifically, that he is Chevre, he checks players' positioning in the scoring higher or lower than previous target, that his role spews me as town, and that his target was me last night.
In post 3075, the worst wrote:sorry if my terminology was bad. flavour investigative*?
I can vouch for having trouble with terminology. I would not know what to call/classify his role as, precisely, and understood exactly why he chose the name he did.
In post 3112, guacamole wrote:So the funny thing is, I didn't target anyone last night. Someone else has a similar role?
It was, quite literally, your role. Errant addressed both the worst and I. He stated that by the end of the day phase, we had to send a short (250 characters or less) message to Errant, which would then be delivered to the other person. Upon receiving the message, we would also be told what score the other person gave us.

the worst gave me a 5. (Exactly as he claimed he did.)

If it was not you, then there is indeed a mystery as to the source of it, but it happened and quite self-evidently so.
In post 2968, Espeonage wrote:I feel like pun is ignoring that distancing is a thing when multiple scum players are under pressure.
I beg your pardon?

My entire
case
is that pun players distance when pun are under pressure.
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Post Post #3139 (isolation #125) » Sun Aug 05, 2018 10:15 am

Post by Punreader »

In post 2835, the worst wrote:oh fuck i just realised something super super useful
In post 2838, the worst wrote:massclaim tomorrow y/y
In post 2840, the worst wrote:just a friendly reminder I was the one advocating massclaim yesterday. and I'm telling you that massclaim is currently suboptimal.
In post 2845, the worst wrote:I just need to check a thing, I might be mistaken and don't want to start barking up the wrong tree unnecessarily
The first of these posts was sent five hours after I had sent my message to the worst. And I know for a fact I received his message in this same time frame, so it figures that if I received his message in this timeframe, he received my message in a similar window of time.

This was what caused me to post this:
In post 2848, Punreader wrote:Hmm.

VOTE: Shoshin.

I may be wrong about the worst being pun.
And I explained further,
In post 2851, Punreader wrote:I have good reason to believe the worst is town.
In post 2854, Punreader wrote:Also I have very good reason to believe that if the worst were one of the last pun, he would be doing one particular thing different than what he's doing. (I wish I had a way of hinting at this without giving it away, but alas.)
I can't get much more explicit than this.

He would be doing one particular thing differently than what he's doing, regarding the messages we exchanged. His handling of that situation was the most town response possible.

the worst and I were, 100%, provably, connected. The source of the connection is an exact duplicate to guacamole's role. I know this because I was connected to Dunnstral (about as pointless a connection as possible given we were in a neighborhood together which I specified in my message), and the contents/mechanics of the message today are identical to the mechanics when Dunnstral and I were connected.
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Post Post #3141 (isolation #126) » Sun Aug 05, 2018 10:22 am

Post by Punreader »

In post 3137, guacamole wrote:What day were you told this?
I was told, on whatever Day July 7th marked the beginning of, with "Night Resolution", that Dunnstral and I by the end of the day phase HAD to send a short (250 or less) message to Errant, who would pass it along to the other. With that message, we'd be told the score we gave the other. Dunnstral gave me a 7, and he gave a shitpost in his message. (Presumably, he felt similarly to myself in it being worthless given our neighborhood.)

I was told, on the beginning of THIS day phase, same exact title of Night Resolution, that the worst and I by the end of the day phase HAD to send a short (250 or less) message to Errant, who would pass it along to the other. With that message, we'd be told the score we gave the other.

The worst told me he was Chevre, could check ranking positions (higher/lower than previous night's target), that his role made no sense if I wasn't town, and that he checked me last night. He also wanted to try and figure out if we could plan something.

I can't get a more direct quote than this without a modkill.
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Post Post #3144 (isolation #127) » Sun Aug 05, 2018 10:26 am

Post by Punreader »

In post 3141, Punreader wrote:
In post 3137, guacamole wrote:What day were you told this?
I was told, on whatever Day July 7th marked the beginning of, with "Night Resolution", that Dunnstral and I by the end of the day phase HAD to send a short (250 or less) message to Errant, who would pass it along to the other. With that message, we'd be told the score we gave the other. Dunnstral gave me a 7, and he gave a shitpost in his message. (Presumably, he felt similarly to myself in it being worthless given our neighborhood.)

I was told, on the beginning of THIS day phase, same exact title of Night Resolution, that the worst and I by the end of the day phase HAD to send a short (250 or less) message to Errant, who would pass it along to the other. With that message, we'd be told the score we gave the other.

The worst told me he was Chevre, could check ranking positions (higher/lower than previous night's target), that his role made no sense if I wasn't town, and that he checked me last night. He also wanted to try and figure out if we could plan something.

I can't get a more direct quote than this without a modkill.
I suppose I can mention that the message I got from Dunnstral was titled "Dunnstral's Feedback" and that the message I got from the worst was titled "The Worst's Feedback" as well.

It is literally the exact same role.

And as the mod error was apparently in Krazy's roleblock, not in guacamole's no action, there is no explanation for this with guacamole denying knowledge of it.
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Post Post #3150 (isolation #128) » Mon Aug 06, 2018 9:07 am

Post by Punreader »

In post 3146, Krazy wrote:So the worst had already been targeted by it once. I find it odd that guac would target you twice with his ability.
The thing is, this is the second time both the worst and I have been targeted by this ability, albeit with different targets. the worst had Taly; I had Dunnstral.
In post 3147, guacamole wrote:Punreader, please clarify further -- did you receive this the beginning of D4 or D5? The date you gave (July 7) doesn't match either one.
I connected punreader and
Maria
N3
.
There is nothing left to clarify.
On Saturday, July 7th, I was informed I was connected to Dunnstral.

At the beginning of day five (which was Friday, August 3rd), I was informed I was connected to the worst.
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Post Post #3151 (isolation #129) » Mon Aug 06, 2018 9:12 am

Post by Punreader »

In post 1468, ManWithNoName wrote:The people connected by Screenplay were the worst and Taly.
Interestingly.

Taly got this result; the worst got this result; there is zero question that this role action went through as intended, on N1.

The problem I face is this:
In post 1934, Errantparabola wrote:
NahdiaWelcome, Taly.

Passive: Scheherazade
(
People come from near and far to listen to your tales of Sweet Zor and Hella Accountant.
) -- Anyone who visits you on odd-numbered nights will have all of their actions delayed until the next night. They will still be able to act the next night.
By my understanding of Taly's role, Taly
shouldn't
have been connected with the worst, because of the delayed nature of Taly's role.

Somehow, they were thus connected during a time they should not have been connected.
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Post Post #3152 (isolation #130) » Mon Aug 06, 2018 9:14 am

Post by Punreader »

In post 1951, ManWithNoName wrote:Just caved and checked my own decision, I used pun and Dunn. Probably because they rhymed.
Also, guacamole, how do you explain you saying your slot connected me and MariaR (a result we don't have), when your predecessor claimed you connected me and Dunnstral (a result we DID have)?
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Post Post #3256 (isolation #131) » Tue Aug 07, 2018 5:02 pm

Post by Punreader »

In post 3158, Shoshin wrote:Let's have Pun shoot Guac, then?
There are only two lynches which will make me submit this.

One is Espeonage; the other is yourself.

Otherwise, I refuse.

So,
In post 3204, Krazy wrote:
Vote Espeonage

Current proposal is lynch espeonage, shoot guac.
Pun are you on board for this?
I am indeed.
VOTE: Espeonage.
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Post Post #3257 (isolation #132) » Tue Aug 07, 2018 5:04 pm

Post by Punreader »

In post 3243, Shoshin wrote:Pun's shooting Guac, so I don't really feel like lynching there today.
My shot on there has the caveat of an Espeonage lynch.

I will not shoot guacamole if the worst is lynched.

Nor will I shoot guacamole if guacamole is lynched, obviously. :giggle:
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Post Post #3309 (isolation #133) » Wed Aug 08, 2018 2:03 pm

Post by Punreader »

In post 3258, the worst wrote:work with me here? what are you seeing in Espe as scum?
This
is
me working with you.
You trust me, right?

Well then, trust me to have done the number crunching. I looked at all the figures.
The only lynches today that are even remotely good are Shoshin, Espeonage, and guacamole. guacamole's a mislynch, mind you, but at least he's a smart mislynch rather than a dumb one.

The math works out as such:
Assume, no matter what, Vaxkiller is not lynched.
Assume, no matter what, pun kill Vaxkiller as he is conftown.
  1. LYNCH: DeasVail/Krazy (the two are interchangeable in results):
    This is a mislynch. It subdivides from there.
    1. KILL: guacamole
      • If guacamole were pun, the pun player who is not guacamole likely has a way to prevent the vig from going through. guacamole lives through the night, making the vig a waste.
      • If guacamole is town, the pun let the vig go through. This then leaves us in 5p lylo.
        You are the player everyone has an incentive at this point to lynch; the other of DeasVail/Krazy wants you dead, Shoshin wants you dead, Espeonage wants you dead, and even I wouldn't be able to stop that lynch. This is, understandably, not ideal; it is a worst case scenario to be facing.
    2. DON'T KILL: guacamole:
      This need not be given bulletpoints as the result is the same regardless of his alignment. It's harder to mislynch you, and players are less inclined to do so.

      Conclusion: don't kill guacamole if one of Krazy/DeasVail is lynched.
  2. LYNCH: the worst
    I don't think I need to explain to you why that'd be bad, yes? It's self-evident to you.
  3. LYNCH: guacamole
    This is far from ideal, but it gets us into mylo tomorrow. It is still harder to mislynch you, and players are less inclined to do so. We have significantly more leeway than with a DeasVail/Krazy lynch in that regard.
  4. LYNCH: Shoshin/Espeonage (the two are interchangeable in results):
    This is a pun lynch. FURTHERMORE, both of their lynches have identical effects. They elevate you to conftown levels, and condemn the other. A Shoshin lynch means you never get lynched, the worst; an Espeonage lynch means you never get lynched; a lynch of Espeonage makes Shoshin a prime punbuddy candidate; a lynch of Shoshin given Shoshin's Espeonage defense points fingers at Espeonage rather strongly.
    guacamole can thus safely be shot.
Simply put. I thought ahead. I thought the way pun would be thinking, about the endgame
they
want to set up, and how to best deal with that endgame.

Krazy/DeasVail lynches today with a guacamole shot condemn you to die tomorrow, the worst. That is thus why they are not ideal.
Your lynch today is self-evidently not ideal, and I'm not going to exasperate it by then shooting guacamole.
guacamole's lynch today isn't the best, but it's not terrible. You're not condemned tomorrow, and we have a shot at winning the game.
Shoshin and Espeonage's lynches today are the best; they afford me the luxury of shooting town.

I am willing to shoot guacamole, then, on the lynch of a pun player.

I am not willing to shoot guacamole upon the lynch of a town player.

And I've made it quite unambiguous who I've felt is which alignment, yes?

So you can understand then why I'm not shooting guacamole if you lynch Krazy or DeasVail because that would be literally gamethrowing on my part.
In post 3261, Krazy wrote:Pun, Sho made an interesting point. Can you explain how scum would choose to rate Vax 0, thus increasing chances that Esp gets nightkilled by Dunn n1 by 15%? Like, you're thinking that scum create the scenario where Dunn can nightkill Esp just for the value in distancing?
You seem to have forgotten a fundamental fact regarding the bet.
Vaxkiller, one of the two players who needed to be ranked high/low, is proven town via MariaR's cop result.
Fire Assassin, the other of the two players who needed to be ranked high/low, is proven pun by his flip.

It thus says nothing about Espeonage's alignment that pun wanted Fire Assassin ranked higher than Vaxkiller, because that is a natural thing for them to have wanted.
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Post Post #3310 (isolation #134) » Wed Aug 08, 2018 2:09 pm

Post by Punreader »

In post 3281, the worst wrote:it's like literally their wincon to hear us out :/
It's literally yours to understand why I'm not shooting town if we mislynch town since that places us in what is basically an autolose situation.
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Post Post #3311 (isolation #135) » Wed Aug 08, 2018 2:12 pm

Post by Punreader »

In post 3303, Shoshin wrote:I strongly believe the reason Pun won't vig guac is because Pun isn't town. There's no other reason to refuse that request.
Alternatively, I feel like vigging guacamole after mislynching town with the worst as a prime lynch candidate is absolutely not a good thing to do.

You'd have to be blind to not realize that's the exact gamestate we'd end up with in the events I outlined.

Or are you saying that if we mislynched Krazy/DeasVail and guacamole was vigged and flipped town, you'd suddenly be clearing the worst?

Of course not.
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Post Post #3315 (isolation #136) » Wed Aug 08, 2018 2:29 pm

Post by Punreader »

In post 3312, Shoshin wrote:Pun, why are you so certain these are mislynches?
Because Chara wasn't pun, Krazy isn't pun, and DeasVail is so incredibly unlikely to be pun that it's not something I'll ever consider.

As far as guacamole goes, I confess I am not as certain he is town as I am the others.

I maintain, however, that if he IS pun, that his punbuddy has a method to foil a vig there, leaving a vig attempt on him detrimental. If he's pun, it'll fail; if he's not pun, then pun will let the shot go through on town. Either way, we come out behind.

This is also why he's an acceptable, albeit far from ideal, lynch. I feel he is far more likely to be town than not, but acknowledge there's a realistic chance he could be pun.
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Post Post #3332 (isolation #137) » Thu Aug 09, 2018 8:27 am

Post by Punreader »

In post 3316, Shoshin wrote:Why can't Chara be scum? Why can't Krazy be scum? Why can't DV be scum?
These would require full cases, reliant at least part on meta. Both Chara and DeasVail are players I have played extensively with. Not so much for Krazy, but my townread there is based around what he has done and continues to do; it is self-evident that his analysis is town-driven.
In post 3316, Shoshin wrote:Why can't the worst be scum?
This however is a read I already explained.
In post 3316, Shoshin wrote:Why can't Guac be scum?
He can be! I simply find it unlikely.
In post 3316, Shoshin wrote:Why would you assume that scum have a way to foil the vig?
Because the pun provably, 100%, have a way to foil the vig. MariaR died and due to her role's nature, unused powers go to her killer. If you assume guacamole was not her killer (a reasonably safe assumption), then you can reasonably deduce that her killer has a doc shot.

On top of that, any player with an unproven roleclaim has the ability for their roleclaim to either be an outright fakeclaim or an only partially true claim with them possessing another ability. I said this back when we were discussing vig targets much earlier in the game in fact:
In post 708, Punreader wrote:As for being leashed?
If the majority of the people asking for me to be leashed are in the bottom half of my reads (and that is currently the case), I refuse.
If the majority of the people asking for me to be leashed are in the top half of my reads (which is not currently the case), I will do so provided two additional conditions:
Condition #2:
I will not shoot someone in the top half of my readslist. The first reason for this would be that, obviously, someone in the top half of my readslist is more likely to outrank me (and thus make me not vig them), making it stupid to try.
The second, and far more important (and frankly, obvious) reason I won't shoot someone in the top half of my readslist is that them being in the top half of my readslist means I am townreading them and no duh, I refuse to shoot a townread because
that would be deliberately shooting at someone I think is town
, which is gamethrowing.

Condition #3:
I will not limit my vig to a single name. It must be a pool of 3-5 players, no more no less. More than five isn't really much of a leash at all, now, is it? Yet less than 3 narrows it down too much. 3-5 is the butter zone of vig names. The reason for not limiting it to a single name is also obvious enough if you think it through. If the pun know the EXACT player I am going to vig, that gives them many methods of failure otherwise unavailable to them.

By manipulating their votes, they can ensure my target is ranked higher than me (causing me to not vig them).
By doctoring my target, they can ensure my target survives a vig.
By rolestopping my target, they can ensure my target survives a vig.
If my target has an activated defensive ability, e.g. activated commute, activated bulletproof, activated pgo, then telling them I am going to shoot them allows for them to use it.
By jailkeeping my target, they can ensure my target survives a vig.
By roleblocking me, they can ensure my target survives a vig.
By jailkeeping me, they can ensure my target survives a vig.
By busdriving my target, they can ensure I vig someone we don't want dead.

That's a lot of failure methods.

In contrast, by using the pool of 3-5 names, the pun are forced to guess.
By having 3-5 names, it is SIGNIFICANTLY harder for the pun to manipulate the pool and ensure my target is ranked higher than me.
By having 3-5 names, the pun cannot guess with accuracy who I will shoot, thus cannot doctor my kill, leading them to potentially waste it if limited, use it wrong, or not use it when needed if limited.
By having 3-5 names, the pun cannot guess with accuracy who I will shoot, thus cannot rolestop my kill, leading them to potentially waste it if limited, use it wrong, or not use it when needed if limited.
By having 3-5 names, the pun cannot guess with accuracy who I will shoot, thus cannot jailkeep my kill, leading them to potentially waste it if limited, use it wrong, or not use it when needed if limited.
By having 3-5 names, the pun cannot guess with accuracy who I will shoot, thus cannot know whether using their activated defensive abilities is necessary, leading them to potentially waste them and also potentially not use them when needed.
By having 3-5 names, the pun cannot guess with accuracy who I will shoot, thus cannot know whether roleblocking me is a good or bad idea.
By having 3-5 names, the pun cannot guess with accuracy who I will shoot, thus cannot know whether jailkeeping me is a good or bad idea.
By having 3-5 names, the pun cannot guess with accuracy who I will shoot, thus making a successful busdrive unlikely.

The downside to this is that I am in fact less accountable, my actions can run afoul of town protectives targeting in the pool (unlikely as that may be given that this would be a pun pool so protectives SHOULDN'T be targeting consensus punreads), and the consequences of the pun getting it
right
are higher (for instance, say the pun DO correctly guess my target and successfully busdrive; I am placed in the rather ugly situation where two incredibly town players die overnight and my target did not, something which is statistically speaking unlikely to have occurred), but overall a pool rather than a specific name gives a much greater shot at making shots be meaningful.
In post 2679, Punreader wrote:
In post 2678, Punreader wrote:
In post 2674, Dunnstral wrote:I could vote fire today actually
Then do so.
Just because I am ranked higher than Fire does not guarantee that he dies. If I am roleblocker, redirected, or he has immunity (remember, pun via killing Maria may have her doc shot) be it commute, hide, rolestop, or protection, he lives.

It is safer to just Lynch him, as we know that will kill him.
My point being, my Vig can fail; our Lynch cannot. I would rather not take the risk. I'd shoot him if he wasn't lynched, but I would prefer the option with an absolute 0% failure rate.

This close to lylo, safe play takes priority over theoretically optimal play.

I am quite aware a Lynch plus a Vig is superior to just a Lynch. It is also much riskier if we Lynch someone who is town.
As commander shepherd is town, the risk of that Lynch is too high. We should Lynch the player with the highest chance of being pun: that is Fire Assassin.
^This latter post in particular. I used it as reasoning why Fire Assassin was the superior lynch; my reasoning is no less valid now than it was then.
In post 3316, Shoshin wrote:Worst-case scenario, your vig fails. Best-case scenario, it doesn't. Why is that a reason not to vig him in the first place?
Because said "best case" scenario only happens if he's town.
In post 3316, Shoshin wrote:The biggest problem I have is that you're not thinking about the big picture.
To the contrary! I am the
only
person thinking of the big picture. Thinking of the big picture is why I am doing the things I am.
In post 3318, Shoshin wrote:Pun, you ranked Screen a 1, so I'd like to know how that read changed from scum to town. Was it MWNN's play? Or Guac's play? And what about their play? MWNN mislynched Penguin instead of lynching Shepard, so I'm not sure how you classify that as town. Guac pushed for my lynch over Shepard's, so again not sure how you classify that as town. Like, what the fuck? Your way of thinking about this game makes no sense at all.
Well considering both of those are pushes I am also guilty of and I know for a fact I am town...
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Post Post #3333 (isolation #138) » Thu Aug 09, 2018 8:33 am

Post by Punreader »

In post 3325, Espeonage wrote:Basically thinking about it, if you believe there's an sk, they have a vested interest in lynching town.
Thus why my vested interest in not wanting to lynch town and refusing to shoot town after having mislynched helps demonstrate decisively why I'm not a serial killer.

As you yourself note. Were I a serial killer, I'd have no reason to refuse to shoot guacamole. Regardless of guacamole's alignment, his death would be an extra person dead, pushing the game closer to where I'd be the last alive. But because I am not a serial killer, I have to pursue my actual wincon. And my actual wincon tells me that shooting guacamole is a stupid idea if we mislynch today.
In post 3324, Espeonage wrote:Wait why is pun convinced me and Sho are scum?
It's a combination of reasons, from POE, what agendas you are pushing compared to what "agendas" others are pushing, and simple analysis of the gamestate.
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Post Post #3334 (isolation #139) » Thu Aug 09, 2018 8:38 am

Post by Punreader »

Forgot to include this.
In post 3329, Espeonage wrote:It explains the turnaround evident in even just this day phase.
My turnaround, as you so call it, can also far more simply be explained by me having done analysis and from the conclusions of said analysis, come to the conclusions I did.

Not all of these are even new conclusions.
Krazy, DeasVail, and guacamole townreads in particular are townreads I've held for a significant amount of time. If you think otherwise, that is a failure on your part to have paid attention to my reads on prior day phases since the last time I held suspicion on any of them was on D2. All of them have been townreads since D3, to varying extents.

Shoshin has been a punread since D3 as well, with the same catalyst.

You and the worst are the only reads which I can say have changed today. You to pun, the worst to town.
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Post Post #3480 (isolation #140) » Fri Aug 10, 2018 11:12 pm

Post by Punreader »

Hmmm...I don't think I have the ability to post today and I don't imagine I'll have a gap in posting in the next few weeks.
So:
Using V/LA now.
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Post Post #3525 (isolation #141) » Mon Aug 13, 2018 2:58 pm

Post by Punreader »

I have returned. This may take me a while.
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Post Post #3527 (isolation #142) » Mon Aug 13, 2018 3:09 pm

Post by Punreader »

In post 3364, the worst wrote:but we need to make sure there's actually a tomorrow. trust me back?
Oh there's a tomorrow no matter what.

The problem is leaving tomorrow winnable.
In post 3337, Shoshin wrote:Like, you'd think he would have reevaluated his reads after that terrible read on Shepard, but instead he's doubling down on his bad reads.
Sorry, I don't act the way you want me to act. I act the way I
should
act. And calling the pun as I see them is what I should do.
In post 3353, Shoshin wrote:Mafia is among guac, the worst, Krazy, and DV. Two of those are mafia. From the worst's perspective, this game should be easy. What's there to discuss?
Save for one or two players excluded, that is literally the entirety of the town.
In post 3345, the worst wrote:- from a meta point of view you're looking at Espe who is a VERY good busser and FireAss who I don't really have a strong sense of the meta on.
I'll answer for you: Fire Assassin is far more likely to claim a guilty on a punbuddy than on a town player.
In post 3348, the worst wrote:Considering how badly executed this would've been if it were a cross bus?
Well on Fire Assassin's part, naturally.

On Espeonage's part, this seems par for the course from him.

Your argument for Espeonage being town is still fallacious because you're literally using Burden of Proficiency combined with "too punny to be pun". ("Too half-assed to be bussing" is exactly that.)
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Post Post #3528 (isolation #143) » Mon Aug 13, 2018 3:12 pm

Post by Punreader »

In post 3527, Punreader wrote:
In post 3348, the worst wrote:Considering how badly executed this would've been if it were a cross bus?
Well on Fire Assassin's part, naturally.
What I mean by this is, Fire Assassin is precisely the type of player that would execute an abysmally bad cross-bus.

It goes hand-in-hand with fakeclaiming guilties as town; that's just the sort of player he is.
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Post Post #3529 (isolation #144) » Mon Aug 13, 2018 3:36 pm

Post by Punreader »

In post 3481, the worst wrote:it actually just kinda occurred to me that if Pun is holding their shot, a no-lynch might be in our best interests.
but I feel like it's better to no-lynch tomorrow, instead...
I would not recommend a no-lynch, but were we to, I'd shoot guacamole.
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Post Post #3530 (isolation #145) » Mon Aug 13, 2018 3:39 pm

Post by Punreader »

In post 3523, Shoshin wrote:It'd be nice if anyone who isn't voting the worst or DV could weigh in on those lynches...
I refuse to vote town on principle and both are town.

I'd rather lynch guacamole, and as established, even that's less than ideal.
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Post Post #3553 (isolation #146) » Wed Aug 15, 2018 3:16 pm

Post by Punreader »

In post 3531, Krazy wrote:But why is the worst town? I don't understand.
When I have the coherency to write a towncase for him, I will.

At the moment I'm only posting because if I didn't I'd get replaced, so I am not coherent enough to provide it right now.
In post 3531, Krazy wrote:And if you accept that guac is not certainly scum, then why are you confident that the worst (FYPOV) is not Sho's scumbuddy (who you seem certain on?)
Because of game-long interactions suggesting otherwise.
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Post Post #3592 (isolation #147) » Mon Aug 20, 2018 9:29 am

Post by Punreader »

In post 3591, Vaxkiller wrote:I'm wondering if we have to kill punreader today, not sure we can lynch scum today and wait until tomorrow to kill him...i think he would win. (assuming hes an sk)
There is a sufficiently large risk in me claiming this, but pun were supposed to kill you last night and they didn't, so I suppose I'll take the risk anyway.

I am indeed a third party.
I am not in fact a serial killer.

I claimed both to Dunnstral, and to the worst; the former, via neighborhood, the latter, via message.

My full role is much as I have claimed it.
I have a passive, Libel and Slander. 0s and 1s people give me are given double weight.
I have a passive, Stadium Status. This is in fact a conditional bulletproof, but I lied about the condition. The real condition is in some ways stronger but other ways weaker: as long as my D1 ranking is above half of the living, I'm bulletproof. Given as how I've been in the bottom 50% the whole game, I've been wide open to attack the whole time.
I have a passive, Chip Represent!. This is access to the neighborhood consisting of Commander Shepherd and Dunnstral. (I claimed to Dunnstral once Commander Shepherd was dead.)

My active ability, Spread the Word, is in fact a conditional vig. When I target someone ranked lower than me, I kill them. You're the only player ranked lower than me and I absolutely refuse to kill you at this point (if for no other reason than it'd render my win impossible and pun should want you dead anyway so I'm not doing their work for them when they screwed me over by not killing you), so I am not going to kill again.

However, I breadcrumbed yet never claimed that there is another half of Spread the Word: when I target someone ranked
higher
than me, I infect them. This infection does nothing; it doesn't kill them, it doesn't spread, it's completely and entirely harmless. But it is related to my wincon.

My wincon is for every living player to be infected. As all of my target claims have been truthful, what this means is the only player I have infected right now is Shoshin, and maybe not even Shoshin if Shoshin's role is immune to mine. If Shoshin's role is immune to mine, I am in a position where it's impossible to win.

I can win posthumously, and if I win, explicitly the game continues on after I win. (Specifically, it says that I win when everyone alive is infected and that I do not need to be alive to win.)

In my message to the worst, I asked him to claim his alignment to me, with y/d in place of t/s;
Right here he did so. I was specifically hoping to navigate the gamestate to a situation where I knew the identity of the last pun but could win without playing kingmaker. I didn't want to punside due to promising I'd help Dunnstral (and my natural inclination to help town the whole game) nor after the worst trusted me did I want to betray him and townside.

This means yes, I am fairly certain Espeonage is the worst's punbuddy. After all. With two kills you know there's pun left alive; you then have a choice: believe his punbuddy bussed him, or believe Espeonage is the punbuddy.

The options available to the town then are the following:
  1. Lynch me. I can't win, presumably Vaxkiller is shot by the last pun, and you have a 3p lylo. If you assume Shoshin is town (which I would, by the way; I knew Shoshin was town yesterday due to knowing the worst was pun so I apologize for that push), that's a 50/50 shot but I'd strongly recommend the Espeonage lynch and can cite the worst's defense of him as proof.
  2. Lynch someone else.
    • If you lynch the last pun, I lose because I am not a threat to the town and did not fulfill my wincon.
    • If you lynch town, then I target the player I haven't infected.
      • If Shoshin was infected and pun nightkill Vaxkiller, then I am removed from the game; presumably, this would result in a pun win.
      • If the pun doesn't eliminate Vaxkiller or Shoshin wasn't infected, then we get to a 3p situation; I may or may not be able to win but town's chances aren't great.
    Given that a mislynch today leaves the town's chances as fairly slim, you'll not want to take that risk I'd wager.
  3. No-lynch. In return for having not lynched me, I'd target the player you want me to in {Espeonage, DeasVail}. (You want me to be targeting TOWN.) In 4p mylo, we'd lynch the other, and we can win together. This is effectively identical to the first option, in that you are taking a 50/50, it's just that this option allows me to win with the town as well.
In short, due to the actions of both town (lynching the worst) and pun (not killing Vaxkiller), I
am
being forced to choose a side.

I was already inclined to townside by default and double-downed on that with Dunnstral. I never intended to punside; I was simply aiming for a gamestate where I wouldn't need to choose a side to win. But since no matter what I do at this point I
will
be helping a victor, I made my choice and am selecting the town.

VOTE: No Lynch.
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Post Post #3594 (isolation #148) » Mon Aug 20, 2018 9:44 am

Post by Punreader »

If you doubt that I was town-leaning from the onset, you need only look at my shot on Fire Assassin for proof of this.
I knew that Fire Assassin was, 100%, ranked below me.
Instead of going for the infection, I shot him.

Of course I do confess some of my actions have been driven by the wincon. I defended Commander Shepherd because I infected him and I wanted to keep my infections alive; most of my targets were players that I thought would be ranked above me, from Pine (I was surprised I vigged him; I was convinced I would infect him) to Shoshin to Commander Shepherd. (Frankly the main reason I didn't shoot ManWithNoName was because I knew he was ranked lower than me.) I did need guacamole dead at some point and shot him in part due to this, but that was also a shot made because many people were assuming the worst and guacamole was the punteam.

I didn't think the worst's flip would entirely dissuade people from that conclusion; I thought people would still be under the impression guacamole was pun anyway in spite of the obvious. (If I am wrong and upon the worst's flip you were convinced guacamole was town, then I do apologize.) I also always was shooting punreads of mine. I genuinely believed Pine to be pun; I didn't think Commander Shepherd was pun but he asked me to shoot him and I had no reason not to oblige as it was convenient, but at the time I shot Shoshin I genuinely believed Shoshin to be pun.

If you know who I am then you also know how I treat 3p; I treat 3p as if they are town regardless of situation or circumstance. (You would also know that were I actually a serial killer I would never shoot, holstering the whole game, as I believe that to be optimal serial killer play in most situations.) So while I
have
been pursuing my wincon and some actions of mine are obviously proof of this, I have
also
been trying to help the town the whole game. Including yesterday; I was worried that I would be forced to punside if you made the wrong lynch.

I even outlined why I felt Shoshin's actions were ironically the most anti-town actions humanly possible, because Shoshin's proposed course of action was what I felt was the one foolproof way to guarantee the town would lose due to me needing to punside given those circumstances. Fortunately, that ended up not being the case, but I maintain that the lynch of the worst was not the best possible lynch. It wasn't the worst possible lynch (that'd have been DeasVail or Krazy), but it was certainly far less than optimal.
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Post Post #3595 (isolation #149) » Mon Aug 20, 2018 9:51 am

Post by Punreader »

In post 3594, Punreader wrote:I even outlined why I felt Shoshin's actions were ironically the most anti-town actions humanly possible, because Shoshin's proposed course of action was what I felt was the one foolproof way to guarantee the town would lose due to me needing to punside given those circumstances. Fortunately, that ended up not being the case, but I maintain that the lynch of the worst was not the best possible lynch. It wasn't the worst possible lynch (that'd have been DeasVail or Krazy), but it was certainly far less than optimal.
For clarity, I outlined this in the neighborhood thread which Errant was kind enough to leave open once I was the last member alive within.

And to explain, a lynch of DeasVail or Krazy would have forced me to shoot guacamole anyway, leaving the town with two pun alive plus myself. We'd lynch one of the pun, I'd be forced to target the other because the pun is the only player who wouldn't be nightkilled and thus guaranteed to be alive with the infect, and in 3p lylo I'd be forced to lynch the player not infected. (I put in the details of the math in there which you can see in postgame.)

Technically speaking the best lynch for me was guacamole, as that'd have freed me up to infect a player, and potentially even allow me to exit the game without me needing to choose the victor, but I couldn't find a way to believably push that as the best option. (I maintain that Espeonage was a better lynch than the worst because I knew the worst to be pun; I only deduced Espeonage to be his partner.)
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Post Post #3601 (isolation #150) » Mon Aug 20, 2018 1:46 pm

Post by Punreader »

In post 3598, Shoshin wrote:Lynch Pun. They're playing anti-town regardless what they say.
Yes shooting Fire Assassin was
so
anti-town of me. :roll:
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Post Post #3602 (isolation #151) » Mon Aug 20, 2018 1:58 pm

Post by Punreader »

I'd like to reiterate:
In post 3594, Punreader wrote:Of course I do confess some of my actions have been driven by the wincon. I did need guacamole dead at some point and shot him in part due to this, but that was also a shot made because many people were assuming the worst and guacamole was the punteam.

I didn't think the worst's flip would entirely dissuade people from that conclusion; I thought people would still be under the impression guacamole was pun anyway in spite of the obvious. (If I am wrong and upon the worst's flip you were convinced guacamole was town, then I do apologize.)
Yes I did shoot guacamole to pursue my wincon. I have stated as much openly. I maintain the shot was also to the benefit of the town.

What would stop guacamole from being the worst's punbuddy, having targeted the worst, and the worst simply having copied the power, and when it was claimed, set up distancing?

Of course I found that rather unlikely. But since I'm convinced Espeonage is the worst's punbuddy and have been convinced Espeonage is pun even before the worst claimed pun to me, obviously I already believed guacamole to be town anyway.

But what I more mean is...what would stop
you from arguing
guacamole as being the worst's punbuddy, having set up that distancing with that maneuver?

I knew I was shooting town, yes. I maintain I was not shooting
conftown
, and that suspicion would have remained on guacamole today had I not taken that shot.
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Post Post #3625 (isolation #152) » Tue Aug 21, 2018 2:30 pm

Post by Punreader »

In post 3603, Shoshin wrote:I said repeatedly that guac's only plausible partner was DV. Guac would have been confirmed town after the worst's flip, at least from my perspective.
Sure, from
your
perspective.

The same cannot be said of Krazy (who I had no way of knowing would be dead) and DeasVail among others.

In fact, quite the opposite.
In post 3582, Krazy wrote:So basically we would need Espeonage to hammer. Guac was online and didn't. Not sure I can say that definitely makes him the worst's buddy.

On the assumption this game isn't just over after this night cycle... haven't done the math out there all the way. Depends on if Pun shoots and if he does shoot whether guac is scum. I mean it seems like he should be at this point. But who knows.

For this reason I see DV as an unlikely scumbuddy.

Now, there is Punreader's theory that there was a three-way crossbus on Day 3 and Day 4 between all the scum. This strikes me as complete horseshit. I find it totally implausible that scum would not push some sort of lynch on town between the two days, which is why Shoshin seems likely to be town. Punreader sees this as proof Sho is scum... because he thinks C.Shep plays 4D chess... but this furthers my suspicion that Pun is an SK and is just saying random shit.

Here's the case against each main suspect:
The worst fakeclaimed flavor cop and spent the day trying to lynch people who are likely town, and has never voted scum basically.

Guac says he didn't connect the worst and punreader, and that sounds like horseshit, and he was off the scum-lynch wagon yesterday.

There is no mechanical proof Shoshin is town or any way to confirm her role at the moment.

Of those three cases, the case on the worst seems strongest, the case on guac second best, and the case on Shoshin least best.

You can of course add in DV if you think he could not coordinate with Fire Assassin to lynch Sho on d4, or if you think he saw a better win condition in lynching C.Shep I guess... or you can add in Espeonage if you think scum would really choose the bus over the lack of a nightkill on Dunn. But I see both of those as long-shots. And if a one-shot cop on Vax doesn't actually mean he's town then I think this setup was f'd anyway. While I wouldn't put it past Pun to shoot a buddy, I don't think scum have a second nightkill, so he's probably just SK. You can decide tomorrow whether you want to lynch him for that.

Anyway you probably won't have to worry about sorting vax since he almost certainly dies tonight. The only real question is whether guac gets shot by Pun.
Krazy was a strong advocate of guacamole being the worst's punbuddy as is evident by this thought process here.
In post 3533, DeasVail wrote:
In post 3531, Krazy wrote:Pun I'm not sure I understand your logic that the worst is town. I can at this point follow the reasons you suspect Sho. I think it's reasonable to suspect Sho if you are ignoring her playstyle.

But why is the worst town? I don't understand.

I also feel like I'm with you on some points for Espeonage, but I feel like it doesn't work overall. Sure, if it was just a matter of ranking phase lowkey bussing, I'd see Vax getting 0'd out. But I feel like the larger point was made that if they ensure Vax get's 0'd out then there's no way for them to get a free nightkill on Dunn. I mean, maybe scum bus, maybe they don't bus, but would they really value the bus over a free nightkill?

I feel like the argument that Espeonage is not basically locktown based on the ranking phase votes from FA and Shep/Nah is pretty suspect.

And if you accept that guac is not certainly scum, then why are you confident that the worst (FYPOV) is not Sho's scumbuddy (who you seem certain on?)
This is a good post.
And DeasVail showed he was mirroring Krazy's thought process on the matter.

You, Shoshin, are not the entirety of the town.
You should never pretend otherwise.
Because I shot guacamole knowing that the worst's flip would not remove all suspicion from guacamole to the rest of the town.
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Post Post #3626 (isolation #153) » Tue Aug 21, 2018 2:40 pm

Post by Punreader »

In post 3613, Shoshin wrote:Pun is confirmed scum, DV.
Wrong. I am confirmed 3p. 3p does not equate to pun; only
malevolent
3ps count as pun. As my wincon is benevolent and can be thought of in terms of being a reverse-survivor of sorts, I am anything but pun.
In post 3614, Shoshin wrote:Like, why would we leave Pun alive? What's the point?
Well multiple reasons.

For a start, I am confirmed not groupscum with my kill mechanics confirmed such that the only player I can kill is Vaxkiller (who I am adamantly against shooting). Lynching me is not lynching groupscum.

If you mislynch today then you may have another shot at lynching pun tomorrow.

I can win with the town albeit requiring a no-lynch today so the only reason to get rid of me is to be a jerk and deny me the win when I otherwise have a fair shot at it.

I have made it known I'm not going to punside and there is strong evidence of this.

I have also shown that I am punhunting.

In particular:
In post 3619, Shoshin wrote:Have you picked up any associative tells from the worst?
Yes, plenty. Which you'd have known if you paid attention to my wall.

the worst spewed Espeonage as pun, hard. Look at his constant defense of the slot.
Similarly, look at how Espeonage in spite of having numerous opportunities not once was voting the worst.

Again,
In post 3585, Errantparabola wrote:
the worst
(5): Vaxkiller, Krazy, DeasVail, Shoshin, guacamole
Espeonage
(1): Punreader
Krazy
(1): Espeonage
Not Voting
(1): the worst
To reiterate. The options you are left with are that Espeonage is the worst's punbuddy...or that Espeonage's punbuddy bussed. Evidence of the latter not being true: if the worst's punbuddy had bussed, then there was no incentive for Krazy to have been the nightkill. Krazy and Shoshin were two of the hardest pushers of the worst being pun, but if DeasVail or Shoshin were pun, then they'd want to maximize the number of players alive on the worst's wagon as to not stand out more.

Whereas in an Espeonage-pun world, Espeonage would believe that he'd need to nightkill the players with the most towncred.
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Post Post #3627 (isolation #154) » Tue Aug 21, 2018 2:44 pm

Post by Punreader »

In post 3622, Shoshin wrote:What happens if someone is ranked exactly the same as you?
This is not possible as per how the Speakeasy User Popularity Poll works. To my knowledge, there has never been a tie;
someone
is always higher than another. And in the theoretical case of a tie, I believe a tiebreaker method exists that would rank someone higher or lower.

What that tiebreaker is I could only guess, but it is quite simply impossible for two people to have the same ranking, even if they hold the same score. One of them will always be considered "higher"; the other, "lower".

At least, that is my understanding.

Per my role PM, if Errant actually did allow ties, someone ranked exactly equal to me would not be ranked lower than me. As my vig only works on those lower than me, someone equal to me would logically be infected. (My PM doesn't say "if higher, infected"; it specifies, "otherwise, infected".)
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Post Post #3628 (isolation #155) » Tue Aug 21, 2018 2:55 pm

Post by Punreader »

In post 3626, Punreader wrote:
In post 3585, Errantparabola wrote:
the worst
(5): Vaxkiller, Krazy, DeasVail, Shoshin, guacamole
Espeonage
(1): Punreader
Krazy
(1): Espeonage
Not Voting
(1): the worst
To reiterate. The options you are left with are that Espeonage is the worst's punbuddy...or that Espeonage's punbuddy bussed. Evidence of the latter not being true: if the worst's punbuddy had bussed, then there was no incentive for Krazy to have been the nightkill. Krazy and Shoshin were two of the hardest pushers of the worst being pun, but if DeasVail or Shoshin were pun, then they'd want to maximize the number of players alive on the worst's wagon as to not stand out more.

Whereas in an Espeonage-pun world, Espeonage would believe that he'd need to nightkill the players with the most towncred.
To further clarify:
You are left with those two worlds. Place yourself into the pun's shoes in both worlds.

In the world where the last punbuddy bussed, they want to get towncred for having bussed. The more players alive from the wagon, the more towncred they are likely to get, due to groupthinking. Players who are on the lynch know they were on the lynch as town, and thus, are naturally going to be more inclined by default to assume the others on the lynch were also town.

FURTHERMORE. In the event the town is smart enough to deduce that pun bussed, by killing a member of the wagon, they are narrowing the pool of who said pun bussing could be, making it easier to spot them.

In contrast, imagine a world where the last punbuddy
didn't
bus.
The know they have no town credit.
The players on the wagon are, thanks to groupthinking, likely to townread one another. This is disastrous; killing a member of the wagon can help to break that cohesion. Furthermore, because they are not a member of the wagon, the thought that killing a member of the wagon would narrow down who the pun are never occurs to them; they are more worried about the wagon being townread due to bias of knowing it was all town.

This is why the Krazy nightkill points to Espeonage as pun.

For further evidence, refer to how the worst treated Espeonage, and how Espeonage treated the worst.

If that's not enough, then read my case I made against him yesterday, discarding the part about Shoshin (which was written mostly to protect the worst). Everything I said about him then was sincere, and remains true today.
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Post Post #3630 (isolation #156) » Tue Aug 21, 2018 3:05 pm

Post by Punreader »

In post 842, the worst wrote:9 - Espeonage
In post 3207, the worst wrote:I'm still pretty sure Espe is town, and that case amounts to something closer to "he doesn't deserve to win" than "he's scum". I need to counter case this but it's prolly gonna have to wait til I'm at a PC.
In post 3219, the worst wrote:^^^^^^^^^
I'd take it if he brushed on any actual reasons to suspect Espe (I've argued with myself over it quite a lot) but on the balance of things Krazy is probably just scum here.
In post 3258, the worst wrote:I'm pretty sure that's a bad lynch Pun. work with me here? what are you seeing in Espe as scum?
(KEEP IN MIND THE WORST AND I WERE TRYING TO SIGNAL TO ONE ANOTHER WHAT TO DO DURING THE NIGHT AT THIS TIME)
In post 3276, the worst wrote:bro have you read a game Espe has ever been in?
In post 3345, the worst wrote:- I'm townreading the dude and I'm getting better at reading espe. this is not a gamestate that turns scum!Espe off. he loves bussing and loves chaos when he's controlling it, and he's far more liable to phase out when he's town. it's not quite a reverse Creature tell but it's almost there--if Espe is disengaged, there's a >random chance he's town.
- from a meta point of view you're looking at Espe who is a VERY good busser and FireAss who I don't really have a strong sense of the meta on. like this clusterfuck of scumreads and claims between the two is a pain in the ass to read but I don't think I understand what the hell either of them are meant to gain from it. Espe tunnels FA for either a bus or because his role tells him to which is whatever. it's difficult to read into his read accuracy because he poker faced his early read pretty hard. either he's realised he's genuinely scumreading the dude who's rankings he needs to tank or he's done like a super half assed job of bussing....which gives him no benefit whatsoever. if anything the way they courted with wagoning each other just feels like unnecessary associatives. I don't see him going down this path with a scumbuddy? plus like FireAss was scummy as hell with his creepy SOD1 TMIey reads. as someone who fucking loves fakeclaiming alignment cops I can tell you for a fact that FireAss did not fakeclaim that shit in order to be the scumteam's carry. Krazy can you talk to me for a sec? what the fuck do either Espe or Fire gain from this exchange if it's a crossbus? it just feels too messy to be like an actual plan which two people planned.

- your suggestion that his claim is bullshit doesn't feel considered in more than two dimensions bro. he's claimed Dunn's role sans the neighbour thing. if he was scum with Dunn's role + x ability why would he not just claim Dunn's role + an ability? like this would just be pants on head as either alignment. I'd fucking bet you if we flip Espe, his role flips as Dunn's role without the extra ability.

- I know the mechanics thing is kinda whatever but suggesting the betters are t/s and the bettees are t/s is kinda..... eh. I'd believe t/t + s/s before I'd believe that. going t/s + t/s basically forces scum to play a particular style, which is grossly unfun. having a mafia role who is like, forced to bus a particular team mate? I personally hate bussing and would instantly replace out. Can't see a game which was in the review process so long being approved with a role which is just blatantly unfun.
In post 3349, the worst wrote:I actually haven't weighted my Espe and Shosh reads against each other. I just don't really see either flipping scum here.

definitely townread Espe before I townread Shoshin (needed her to show me what to actually look for which was a little embarrassing) but they're probably roughly equal?
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Post Post #3631 (isolation #157) » Tue Aug 21, 2018 3:17 pm

Post by Punreader »

In post 3629, Shoshin wrote:Shooting town is undeniably scum-sided, regardless of an earlier shot on scum.
Shooting town was undeniably selfish, but it was not without cause. Pretending guacamole was going to be a beacon of towniness today is just outright not true. I could ask Krazy about this had he lived but with him dead I need only ask DeasVail what he would have thought of guacamole going into today had I not shot him.
In post 3629, Shoshin wrote:I also don't see why we should believe anything you say, since we know you're not town.
Because anyone who knows my identity knows how I treat third parties; I absolutely
loathe
the mindset of treating 3p as if they're pun and am a strong pro-3p advocate who favors working with them whenever possible.

Furthermore, I am known to not lie. Mislead, naturally. Tell half-truths, of course I do that because I do it as town. I would not lie.

Also, those who know my identity know that my preferred alignment is town.

My actions this game also speak to a town lean as I shot Fire Assassin and took the reads of the nightkilled into consideration. While I misread Commander Shepherd and I did have role-related reasons for it, my defense of him was in part due to me genuinely believing him to be town. I also promised to townside to Dunnstral explicitly in our PT, and even before having done so I made dual promises. One, I would trust whichever of my neighbors was the last alive and help their side win (and Dunnstral was said neighbor, and town).

Two, if I never got an opportunity for this due to both being alive, I would default to townsiding due to generally empathizing with town more.

Then there is how I, technically speaking, never agreed to work with the worst. I asked him to specify his alignment in my message to him and he did, so I didn't want to lynch him for it and didn't want to play kingmaker, but when the pun forced my hand via
not
killing Vaxkiller last night as I had asked them to (how more explicit can you get than "assume that no matter what, Vaxkiller is the nightkill"?) and left me in a position where I quite frankly may be unable to win at all, the obvious choice in every way is townsiding.

Furthermore, there is a simple fact of the matter you overlook.

If I intended to punside, I didn't need to claim at all. I could continue the charade of a town vig, under the guise of "guacamole was the only person I could shoot, so I shot him" or something to that effect. I would also state my motivation for shooting guacamole was to prove that there's still pun alive, because if Vaxkiller and guacamole both died on the same night, then it's proof there's two kill sources rather than one.

I could, and would, get away with that.

I would point out how, as there is confirmed to be pun alive, lynching a player who is confirmed to not be pun is a mistake.

And this would all work, allowing me to quite easily punside by relying on the biases you have against me to get the town in DV/Espeonage lynched.

Instead I claimed openly, because I made my choice and am doubling down on it.
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Post Post #3632 (isolation #158) » Tue Aug 21, 2018 3:25 pm

Post by Punreader »

In post 3397, Espeonage wrote:For the record I also agree with Sho's lynchpool assessment above. I would order it as probably Krazy, Guac, DV, worst at this point. Scum worst doesn't need to meta me like that, and scum DV also doesn't need to defend me like he has. Basically I've started giving cred to people who are resistant to town lynched.
In post 853, Espeonage wrote:I'll be honest. I put the worst high because I reckon I'll be able to read him later and I genuinely like him. Because I forsee that question coming too.
Look what I found.
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Post Post #3640 (isolation #159) » Tue Aug 21, 2018 6:02 pm

Post by Punreader »

In post 3636, Shoshin wrote:
In post 3592, Punreader wrote:Lynch someone else.
If you lynch the last pun, I lose because I am not a threat to the town and did not fulfill my wincon.
If you lynch town, then I target the player I haven't infected.
If Shoshin was infected and pun nightkill Vaxkiller, then I am removed from the game; presumably, this would result in a pun win.
If the pun doesn't eliminate Vaxkiller or Shoshin wasn't infected, then we get to a 3p situation; I may or may not be able to win but town's chances aren't great.
This analysis is wrong. If we lynch between Espe & DV today, mafia can't win. Either you win, or town wins.
I wish, but you're wrong; my math is quite correct.

We have 5 alive right now.
A mislynch places us at 4 alive.
The mafia nightkill a player.
3 alive.
If I am removed from the game, it is 2 alive.
Mafia win.

When I win, I am removed from the game.
If I didn't win automatically from the results of the night, then tomorrow I am going to lynch whoever I don't have infected. Yes, if the lynchee then is pun then town wins, but odds are that an uninfected player at that stage is likely to be town, thus a loss.
In post 3639, Ankamius wrote:Can I get a rundown on roughly what's going on in the meantime?
Sure.

You know who I am.

So you can verify this information to be true, yes? (HELPFUL HINT: Lynch Ankamius if she doesn't, because she 100% knows my identity and 100% knows these to be true about me.)
In post 3592, Punreader wrote:
In post 3591, Vaxkiller wrote:I'm wondering if we have to kill punreader today, not sure we can lynch scum today and wait until tomorrow to kill him...i think he would win. (assuming hes an sk)
There is a sufficiently large risk in me claiming this, but pun were supposed to kill you last night and they didn't, so I suppose I'll take the risk anyway.

I am indeed a third party.
I am not in fact a serial killer.

I claimed both to Dunnstral, and to the worst; the former, via neighborhood, the latter, via message.

My full role is much as I have claimed it.
I have a passive, Libel and Slander. 0s and 1s people give me are given double weight.
I have a passive, Stadium Status. This is in fact a conditional bulletproof, but I lied about the condition. The real condition is in some ways stronger but other ways weaker: as long as my D1 ranking is above half of the living, I'm bulletproof. Given as how I've been in the bottom 50% the whole game, I've been wide open to attack the whole time.
I have a passive, Chip Represent!. This is access to the neighborhood consisting of Commander Shepherd and Dunnstral. (I claimed to Dunnstral once Commander Shepherd was dead.)

My active ability, Spread the Word, is in fact a conditional vig. When I target someone ranked lower than me, I kill them. You're the only player ranked lower than me and I absolutely refuse to kill you at this point (if for no other reason than it'd render my win impossible and pun should want you dead anyway so I'm not doing their work for them when they screwed me over by not killing you), so I am not going to kill again.

However, I breadcrumbed yet never claimed that there is another half of Spread the Word: when I target someone ranked
higher
than me, I infect them. This infection does nothing; it doesn't kill them, it doesn't spread, it's completely and entirely harmless. But it is related to my wincon.

My wincon is for every living player to be infected. As all of my target claims have been truthful, what this means is the only player I have infected right now is Shoshin, and maybe not even Shoshin if Shoshin's role is immune to mine. If Shoshin's role is immune to mine, I am in a position where it's impossible to win.

I can win posthumously, and if I win, explicitly the game continues on after I win. (Specifically, it says that I win when everyone alive is infected and that I do not need to be alive to win.)

In my message to the worst, I asked him to claim his alignment to me, with y/d in place of t/s;
Right here he did so. I was specifically hoping to navigate the gamestate to a situation where I knew the identity of the last pun but could win without playing kingmaker. I didn't want to punside due to promising I'd help Dunnstral (and my natural inclination to help town the whole game) nor after the worst trusted me did I want to betray him and townside.

With two kills you know there's pun left alive.

The options available to the town then are the following:
  1. Lynch me. I can't win, presumably Vaxkiller is shot by the last pun, and you have a 3p lylo. If you assume Shoshin is town (which I would, by the way; I knew Shoshin was town yesterday due to knowing the worst was pun so I apologize for that push), that's a 50/50 shot.
  2. Lynch someone else.
    • If you lynch the last pun, I lose because I am not a threat to the town and did not fulfill my wincon.
    • If you lynch town, then I target the player I haven't infected.
      • If Shoshin was infected and pun nightkill Vaxkiller, then I am removed from the game; presumably, this would result in a pun win.
      • If the pun doesn't eliminate Vaxkiller or Shoshin wasn't infected, then we get to a 3p situation; I may or may not be able to win but town's chances aren't great.
    Given that a mislynch today leaves the town's chances as fairly slim, you'll not want to take that risk I'd wager.
  3. No-lynch. In return for having not lynched me, I'd target the player you want me to in {Espeonage, DeasVail}. (You want me to be targeting TOWN.) In 4p mylo, we'd lynch the other, and we can win together. This is effectively identical to the first option, in that you are taking a 50/50, it's just that this option allows me to win with the town as well.
In short, due to the actions of both town (lynching the worst) and pun (not killing Vaxkiller), I
am
being forced to choose a side.

I was already inclined to townside by default and double-downed on that with Dunnstral. I never intended to punside; I was simply aiming for a gamestate where I wouldn't need to choose a side to win. But since no matter what I do at this point I
will
be helping a victor, I made my choice and am selecting the town.

VOTE: No Lynch.
In post 3594, Punreader wrote:If you doubt that I was town-leaning from the onset, you need only look at my shot on Fire Assassin for proof of this.
I knew that Fire Assassin was, 100%, ranked below me.
Instead of going for the infection, I shot him.

Of course I do confess some of my actions have been driven by the wincon. I defended Commander Shepherd because I infected him and I wanted to keep my infections alive; most of my targets were players that I thought would be ranked above me, from Pine (I was surprised I vigged him; I was convinced I would infect him) to Shoshin to Commander Shepherd. (Frankly the main reason I didn't shoot ManWithNoName was because I knew he was ranked lower than me.) I did need guacamole dead at some point and shot him in part due to this, but that was also a shot made because many people were assuming the worst and guacamole was the punteam.

I didn't think the worst's flip would entirely dissuade people from that conclusion; I thought people would still be under the impression guacamole was pun anyway in spite of the obvious. (If I am wrong and upon the worst's flip you were convinced guacamole was town, then I do apologize.) I also always was shooting punreads of mine. I genuinely believed Pine to be pun; I didn't think Commander Shepherd was pun but he asked me to shoot him and I had no reason not to oblige as it was convenient, but at the time I shot Shoshin I genuinely believed Shoshin to be pun.

If you know who I am then you also know how I treat 3p; I treat 3p as if they are town regardless of situation or circumstance. (You would also know that were I actually a serial killer I would never shoot, holstering the whole game, as I believe that to be optimal serial killer play in most situations.) So while I
have
been pursuing my wincon and some actions of mine are obviously proof of this, I have
also
been trying to help the town the whole game. Including yesterday; I was worried that I would be forced to punside if you made the wrong lynch.

I even outlined why I felt Shoshin's actions were ironically the most anti-town actions humanly possible, because Shoshin's proposed course of action was what I felt was the one foolproof way to guarantee the town would lose due to me needing to punside given those circumstances. Fortunately, that ended up not being the case, but I maintain that the lynch of the worst was not the best possible lynch. It wasn't the worst possible lynch (that'd have been DeasVail or Krazy), but it was certainly far less than optimal.
In post 3595, Punreader wrote:
In post 3594, Punreader wrote:I even outlined why I felt Shoshin's actions were ironically the most anti-town actions humanly possible, because Shoshin's proposed course of action was what I felt was the one foolproof way to guarantee the town would lose due to me needing to punside given those circumstances. Fortunately, that ended up not being the case, but I maintain that the lynch of the worst was not the best possible lynch. It wasn't the worst possible lynch (that'd have been DeasVail or Krazy), but it was certainly far less than optimal.
For clarity, I outlined this in the neighborhood thread which Errant was kind enough to leave open once I was the last member alive within.

And to explain, a lynch of DeasVail or Krazy would have forced me to shoot guacamole anyway, leaving the town with two pun alive plus myself. We'd lynch one of the pun, I'd be forced to target the other because the pun is the only player who wouldn't be nightkilled and thus guaranteed to be alive with the infect, and in 3p lylo I'd be forced to lynch the player not infected. (I put in the details of the math in there which you can see in postgame.)

Technically speaking the best lynch for me was guacamole, as that'd have freed me up to infect a player, and potentially even allow me to exit the game without me needing to choose the victor, but I couldn't find a way to believably push that as the best option. (I maintain that Espeonage was a better lynch than the worst because I knew the worst to be pun; I only deduced Espeonage to be his partner.)
In post 3602, Punreader wrote:I'd like to reiterate:
In post 3594, Punreader wrote:Of course I do confess some of my actions have been driven by the wincon. I did need guacamole dead at some point and shot him in part due to this, but that was also a shot made because many people were assuming the worst and guacamole was the punteam.

I didn't think the worst's flip would entirely dissuade people from that conclusion; I thought people would still be under the impression guacamole was pun anyway in spite of the obvious. (If I am wrong and upon the worst's flip you were convinced guacamole was town, then I do apologize.)
Yes I did shoot guacamole to pursue my wincon. I have stated as much openly. I maintain the shot was also to the benefit of the town.

What would stop guacamole from being the worst's punbuddy, having targeted the worst, and the worst simply having copied the power, and when it was claimed, set up distancing?

Of course I found that rather unlikely. But what I more mean is...what would stop
you from arguing
guacamole as being the worst's punbuddy, having set up that distancing with that maneuver?

I knew I was shooting town, yes. I maintain I was not shooting
conftown
, and that suspicion would have remained on guacamole today had I not taken that shot.
In post 3625, Punreader wrote:
In post 3603, Shoshin wrote:I said repeatedly that guac's only plausible partner was DV. Guac would have been confirmed town after the worst's flip, at least from my perspective.
Sure, from
your
perspective.

The same cannot be said of Krazy (who I had no way of knowing would be dead) and DeasVail among others.

In fact, quite the opposite.
In post 3582, Krazy wrote:So basically we would need Espeonage to hammer. Guac was online and didn't. Not sure I can say that definitely makes him the worst's buddy.

On the assumption this game isn't just over after this night cycle... haven't done the math out there all the way. Depends on if Pun shoots and if he does shoot whether guac is scum. I mean it seems like he should be at this point. But who knows.

For this reason I see DV as an unlikely scumbuddy.

Now, there is Punreader's theory that there was a three-way crossbus on Day 3 and Day 4 between all the scum. This strikes me as complete horseshit. I find it totally implausible that scum would not push some sort of lynch on town between the two days, which is why Shoshin seems likely to be town. Punreader sees this as proof Sho is scum... because he thinks C.Shep plays 4D chess... but this furthers my suspicion that Pun is an SK and is just saying random shit.

Here's the case against each main suspect:
The worst fakeclaimed flavor cop and spent the day trying to lynch people who are likely town, and has never voted scum basically.

Guac says he didn't connect the worst and punreader, and that sounds like horseshit, and he was off the scum-lynch wagon yesterday.

There is no mechanical proof Shoshin is town or any way to confirm her role at the moment.

Of those three cases, the case on the worst seems strongest, the case on guac second best, and the case on Shoshin least best.

You can of course add in DV if you think he could not coordinate with Fire Assassin to lynch Sho on d4, or if you think he saw a better win condition in lynching C.Shep I guess... or you can add in Espeonage if you think scum would really choose the bus over the lack of a nightkill on Dunn. But I see both of those as long-shots. And if a one-shot cop on Vax doesn't actually mean he's town then I think this setup was f'd anyway. While I wouldn't put it past Pun to shoot a buddy, I don't think scum have a second nightkill, so he's probably just SK. You can decide tomorrow whether you want to lynch him for that.

Anyway you probably won't have to worry about sorting vax since he almost certainly dies tonight. The only real question is whether guac gets shot by Pun.
Krazy was a strong advocate of guacamole being the worst's punbuddy as is evident by this thought process here.
In post 3533, DeasVail wrote:
In post 3531, Krazy wrote:Pun I'm not sure I understand your logic that the worst is town. I can at this point follow the reasons you suspect Sho. I think it's reasonable to suspect Sho if you are ignoring her playstyle.

But why is the worst town? I don't understand.

I also feel like I'm with you on some points for Espeonage, but I feel like it doesn't work overall. Sure, if it was just a matter of ranking phase lowkey bussing, I'd see Vax getting 0'd out. But I feel like the larger point was made that if they ensure Vax get's 0'd out then there's no way for them to get a free nightkill on Dunn. I mean, maybe scum bus, maybe they don't bus, but would they really value the bus over a free nightkill?

I feel like the argument that Espeonage is not basically locktown based on the ranking phase votes from FA and Shep/Nah is pretty suspect.

And if you accept that guac is not certainly scum, then why are you confident that the worst (FYPOV) is not Sho's scumbuddy (who you seem certain on?)
This is a good post.
And DeasVail showed he was mirroring Krazy's thought process on the matter.

You, Shoshin, are not the entirety of the town.
You should never pretend otherwise.
Because I shot guacamole knowing that the worst's flip would not remove all suspicion from guacamole to the rest of the town.
In post 3626, Punreader wrote:
In post 3613, Shoshin wrote:Pun is confirmed scum, DV.
Wrong. I am confirmed 3p. 3p does not equate to pun; only
malevolent
3ps count as pun. As my wincon is benevolent and can be thought of in terms of being a reverse-survivor of sorts, I am anything but pun.
In post 3614, Shoshin wrote:Like, why would we leave Pun alive? What's the point?
Well multiple reasons.

For a start, I am confirmed not groupscum with my kill mechanics confirmed such that the only player I can kill is Vaxkiller (who I am adamantly against shooting). Lynching me is not lynching groupscum.

If you mislynch today then you may have another shot at lynching pun tomorrow.

I can win with the town albeit requiring a no-lynch today so the only reason to get rid of me is to be a jerk and deny me the win when I otherwise have a fair shot at it.

I have made it known I'm not going to punside and there is strong evidence of this.

I have also shown that I am punhunting.
In post 3627, Punreader wrote:
In post 3622, Shoshin wrote:What happens if someone is ranked exactly the same as you?
This is not possible as per how the Speakeasy User Popularity Poll works. To my knowledge, there has never been a tie;
someone
is always higher than another. And in the theoretical case of a tie, I believe a tiebreaker method exists that would rank someone higher or lower.

What that tiebreaker is I could only guess, but it is quite simply impossible for two people to have the same ranking, even if they hold the same score. One of them will always be considered "higher"; the other, "lower".

At least, that is my understanding.

Per my role PM, if Errant actually did allow ties, someone ranked exactly equal to me would not be ranked lower than me. As my vig only works on those lower than me, someone equal to me would logically be infected. (My PM doesn't say "if higher, infected"; it specifies, "otherwise, infected".)
In post 3631, Punreader wrote:
In post 3629, Shoshin wrote:Shooting town is undeniably scum-sided, regardless of an earlier shot on scum.
Shooting town was undeniably selfish, but it was not without cause. Pretending guacamole was going to be a beacon of towniness today is just outright not true. I could ask Krazy about this had he lived but with him dead I need only ask DeasVail what he would have thought of guacamole going into today had I not shot him.
In post 3629, Shoshin wrote:I also don't see why we should believe anything you say, since we know you're not town.
Because anyone who knows my identity knows how I treat third parties; I absolutely
loathe
the mindset of treating 3p as if they're pun and am a strong pro-3p advocate who favors working with them whenever possible.

Furthermore, I am known to not lie. Mislead, naturally. Tell half-truths, of course I do that because I do it as town. I would not lie.

Also, those who know my identity know that my preferred alignment is town.

My actions this game also speak to a town lean as I shot Fire Assassin and took the reads of the nightkilled into consideration. While I misread Commander Shepherd and I did have role-related reasons for it, my defense of him was in part due to me genuinely believing him to be town. I also promised to townside to Dunnstral explicitly in our PT, and even before having done so I made dual promises. One, I would trust whichever of my neighbors was the last alive and help their side win (and Dunnstral was said neighbor, and town).

Two, if I never got an opportunity for this due to both being alive, I would default to townsiding due to generally empathizing with town more.

Then there is how I, technically speaking, never agreed to work with the worst. I asked him to specify his alignment in my message to him and he did, so I didn't want to lynch him for it and didn't want to play kingmaker, but when the pun forced my hand via
not
killing Vaxkiller last night as I had asked them to (how more explicit can you get than "assume that no matter what, Vaxkiller is the nightkill"?) and left me in a position where I quite frankly may be unable to win at all, the obvious choice in every way is townsiding.

Furthermore, there is a simple fact of the matter you overlook.

If I intended to punside, I didn't need to claim at all. I could continue the charade of a town vig, under the guise of "guacamole was the only person I could shoot, so I shot him" or something to that effect. I would also state my motivation for shooting guacamole was to prove that there's still pun alive, because if Vaxkiller and guacamole both died on the same night, then it's proof there's two kill sources rather than one.

I could, and would, get away with that.

I would point out how, as there is confirmed to be pun alive, lynching a player who is confirmed to not be pun is a mistake.

And this would all work, allowing me to quite easily punside by relying on the biases you have against me to get the town in DV/Espeonage lynched.

Instead I claimed openly, because I made my choice and am doubling down on it.
This post in particular you should be able to vouch for.
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Post Post #3643 (isolation #160) » Tue Aug 21, 2018 6:19 pm

Post by Punreader »

(This is perhaps a thought I should have kept to the neighborhood but in the interest of being as open as possible: I do confess I am a bit paranoid of Shoshin. The reason
why
I am paranoid of Shoshin can boil down to: what if Shoshin is the last pun, yet is immune to infection as per being a rankings-immune mafiate? Were that the case, no matter what we do today, as long as it's not lynching me, then Shoshin would lose. Because I have stated so strongly I will townside, if I can't win, then I'd lynch pun. Similarly, if I am under the impression lynching Shoshin will cause me to win, then I would do so. Neither situation would be to a scum-Shoshin's preference.

There is corroborating evidence for this viewpoint in Shoshin's treatment of the worst yesterday; initially, Shoshin was gunning for the worst's lynch, but when it looked like there was an actual risk that could happen, Shoshin shifted viewpoints such that the worst was Shoshin's third or even fourth preference; Shoshin wanted at least one of Krazy/DeasVail dead as well as guacamole.

That having been said, I maintain it is more likely overall that Shoshin is simply town. My suspicion is, 95%, likely to be just paranoia.)
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Post Post #3698 (isolation #161) » Thu Aug 23, 2018 5:54 am

Post by Punreader »

Fair warning: I don't have enough time to post content TODAY, and while I have time tomorrow, I don't have enough time to do what I WANT.

On Saturday, however, what I intend to do is write a towncase and puncase on each of the three players spanning the whole game and including meta; I want everyone to read those and give feedback on them.
It'll just take me some time to write, which I won't have for the next 48 hours.
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Post Post #3728 (isolation #162) » Sun Aug 26, 2018 8:24 am

Post by Punreader »

I don't know why the game is still going given that I am quite explicitly not a threat to the town, but you lose nothing by no lynching here and allowing me the chance to win. I infected DeasVail as promised. I realize that you can't afford to risk lynching Vaxkiller, but you literally have nothing to lose by no lynching.

If after I shoot Vaxkiller, I am not removed from the game, I'll eat the loss and in 3p, you Lynch me.
VOTE: No Lynch.
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Post Post #3729 (isolation #163) » Sun Aug 26, 2018 8:34 am

Post by Punreader »

I can actually prove that I am not a threat to the town:
Were I one, the town wincon would be the simpler, "you win when all non town players are dead".
The specification of threat implies that there is nontown that isn't a threat: me.
I can go into more detail later.
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Post Post #3731 (isolation #164) » Sun Aug 26, 2018 9:24 am

Post by Punreader »

To explain the math further:

There are four possible scenarios:
  1. I am not a threat to the town, precisely as claimed. There is no other nontown. In spite of the town having already won, the game continues until I either win or lose.

    If so, you have nothing to lose by no lynching and letting me shoot Vaxkiller to win.

  2. I am a threat to the town.
    I have threefold proof that this is not the case, albeit two being my word.
    The first reason: I can win when dead. The town wincon is eliminating threats. If I can win when dead, I can't be a threat, because I was already eliminated. If I am dead, thus, eliminated, yet can win posthumously, by definition, I cannot be a threat.

    The second proof is from a lack of mod clarification. When I misunderstood my 0s/1s passive ability, Errantparabola provided me with clarification. This sets a precedence; if I misunderstood my wincon, then he should have clarified it in the same manner. He did not.

    The third is public, in the town win condition. The town wins if all threats to the town are eliminated. If my wincon was a threat, the mod could just specify to eliminate any and all nontown.

    As this didn't happen, we have proof that I am not a threat to the town if I am real claiming.

  3. I am a serial killer. Obviously I know that this is not the case, but were it, I'd need to win a 3p lylo or 4p Mylo.

    By no lynching, you lose nothing. A sk-pun can't win overnight. A truthful pun can. Thus, the Vaxkiller night kill serves as a SK test. I don't win, you lynch me in 3p. I do get removed, well then I wasn't a serial killer! So no lynching costs nothing but gives you a chance to check my alignment.

  4. There is a threat to the town, and I am not it; it's one of you three.
    Were this the case, then unless it's Vaxkiller, the town already lost.
    Lynch me, the threat to the town wins.
    No lynch, I kill Vaxkiller, win, and if the threat isn't Vaxkiller, it endgames the last town player.

    Thus. If you believe Vaxkiller is antitown, let me shoot him; if you don't, then you must assume that this is not the scenario we are in.
Regardless, optimal play in all three possible scenarios is to no lynch.
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Post Post #3732 (isolation #165) » Sun Aug 26, 2018 9:28 am

Post by Punreader »

In post 3730, Shoshin wrote:VOTE: Pun
And what logic do you have considering your viewpoint of me was proven wrong? I most decisively was not defending pun yesterday. I was a strong proponent of Espeonage being pun.
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Post Post #3735 (isolation #166) » Sun Aug 26, 2018 10:44 am

Post by Punreader »

In post 3732, Punreader wrote:
In post 3730, Shoshin wrote:VOTE: Pun
And what logic do you have considering your viewpoint of me was proven wrong? I most decisively was not defending pun yesterday. I was a strong proponent of Espeonage being pun.
If for some reason you wish to argue otherwise:
In post 3665, Shoshin wrote:
In post 3663, Ankamius wrote:Because Pun isn't an SK
Who cares what Pun is as long as you know she's not town, she has the ability to kill Vax tonight
I had the ability to kill Vaxkiller. I did not.
In post 3635, Shoshin wrote:For the record, Pun wants to mislynch today because Pun wins if we mislynch. So Pun probably thinks Espe is town here.
I would indeed have won if we mislynched and told you as much yesterday as reason we should have no lynched then. But I most decisively did not think Espeonage was town, as can be shown from these posts:
In post 2851, Punreader wrote:
In post 947, Errantparabola wrote:
Espeonage
(2): DeasVail,
Fire Assassin

Vaxkiller
(1): the worst
In post 982, Errantparabola wrote:
Fire Assassin
(4):
PenguinPower, Dunnstral
, the worst,
Taly

Espeonage
(2): DeasVail,
Fire Assassin

MariaR
(1): Shoshin
In post 1123, Errantparabola wrote:
Espeonage
(6): DeasVail,
Fire Assassin
,
TehBrawlGuy
, the worst,
Taly, PenguinPower

Fire Assassin
(1):
Dunnstral

MariaR
(1): Shoshin
In post 1083, Errantparabola wrote:
Espeonage
(6): DeasVail,
Fire Assassin
, the worst,
Taly, PenguinPower
, Shoshin
Fire Assassin
(2):
Dunnstral
, Espeonage
Not Voting
(7): Punreader, MariaR/Chara, Nahdia, Srceenplay, Vaxkiller,
TehBrawlGuy
In post 1254, Errantparabola wrote:
Fire Assassin
(3): Espeonage,
MariaR
/Chara
Dunnstral
(1):
Fire Assassin

Not Voting
(11): Punreader, Nahdia, Srceenplay, Vaxkiller, Shoshin,
Taly, PenguinPower, Dunnstral
, DeasVail,
TehBrawlGuy
, the worst
In post 1354, Errantparabola wrote:
PenguinPower
(2):
TehBrawlGuy
, Punreader
Dunnstral
(1):
Fire Assassin

Fire Assassin
(1): Espeonage
Shoshin
(1):
PenguinPower

Not Voting
(10): Nahdia, Srceenplay, Vaxkiller, Shoshin,
Taly, Dunnstral
, DeasVail, the worst,
MariaR
/Chara
In post 1445, Errantparabola wrote:
PenguinPowe
r
(4):
TehBrawlGuy
, Punreader, DeasVail, Shoshin
Nahdia
(3):
MariaR
/Chara,
Dunnstral

Dunnstral
(1):
Fire Assassin

Fire Assassin
(1): Espeonage
Shoshin
(1):
PenguinPower

Not Voting
(5): Nahdia, Srceenplay, Vaxkiller,
Taly
, the worst
In post 1518, Errantparabola wrote:
PenguinPower
(6):
TehBrawlGuy
, Punreader, DeasVail, Shoshin,
Vaxkiller
, ManWithNoName
Nahdia
(5):
MariaR
/Chara,
Dunnstral, PenguinPower, Taly

Dunnstral
(1):
Fire Assassin

Fire Assassin
(1): Espeonage
Not Voting
(2): Nahdia, the worst
In post 1820, Errantparabola wrote:
Commander Shepard
(5):
MariaR
/Chara,
Dunnstral, Taly
, Shoshin
PenguinPower
(5):
TehBrawlGuy
, Punreader, DeasVail,
Vaxkiller
,
Fire Assassin

Shoshin
(3):
PenguinPower
,
Commander Shepard
, the worst
Fire Assassin
(2): Espeonage, ManWithNoName
If I know Commander Shepherd, and I do, this sudden drastic shift in wagon composition is directly the result of his actions. Compare the VCs from (before his replace-in) to the VCs from (after his replace-in).

The strong contrast there is validating a theory of mine, wherein Shoshin is by far the best vote for today, and Espeonage is a fine candidate for the final pun.
In post 1931, Errantparabola wrote:
PenguinPower
(8):
TehBrawlGuy
, Punreader, DeasVail,
Vaxkiller
,
Fire Assassin
, ManWithNoName, Shoshin,
Commander Shepard

Commander Shepard
(3):
MariaR
/Chara,
Dunnstral

Shoshin
(2):
PenguinPower
, the worst
Fire Assassin
(1): Espeonage
In post 1960, Errantparabola wrote:
Commander Shepard
(3): Dunnstral,
Fire Assassin
, ManWithNoName
Shoshin
(2): Punreader, the worst
Fire Assassin
(1): Espeonage
In post 1996, Errantparabola wrote:
Shoshin
(3): Punreader, the worst,
Commander Shepard

Commander Shepard
(2):
Fire Assassin
, ManWithNoName
Fire Assassin
(1): Espeonage
In post 2076, Errantparabola wrote:
Commander Shepard
(2):
Fire Assassin
, ManWithNoName
Shoshin
(2): Punreader, the worst
Fire Assassin
(1): Espeonage
Vaxkiller
(1):
Commander Shepard
In post 2150, Errantparabola wrote:
Commander Shepard
(5):
Fire Assassin
, ManWithNoName,
Dunnstral
, Shoshin,
Vaxkiller

Shoshin
(3): Punreader, the worst,
Commander Shepard

Fire Assassin
(1): Espeonage
In post 2304, Errantparabola wrote:
Commander Shepard
(4):
Fire Assassin
,
Dunnstral
, Shoshin,
Vaxkiller

Fire Assassin
(4): Espeonage, ManWithNoName, the worst,
MariaR

Shoshin
(2): Punreader,
Commander Shepard
I'd like to point out at some point: it is possible, but unlikely, for guacamole to be pun.
Espeonage has a rather decent chance of being pun, but it is not assured.
Shoshin is as good as lock-scum from VCA at this point.
I will not entertain godfather paranoia for Vaxkiller, even though objectively by VCA he has terrible positioning. (His pattern matches what I would expect from pun and his shot remains unproven.)
In post 2373, Errantparabola wrote:
Commander Shepard
(5):
Fire Assassin
, Shoshin,
Vaxkiller
,
MariaR
, DeasVail
Shoshin
(3): Punreader,
Commander Shepard
, the worst
Fire Assassin
(2): Espeonage, guacamole
DeasVail has a
chance
of being pun, a chance higher than that of guacamole, but would not be my first choice.
In post 2669, Errantparabola wrote:
Commander Shepard
(4):
Dunnstral
, Shoshin, Krazy/DeasVail
Fire Assassin
(1): Punreader
Shoshin
(1):
Vaxkiller
In post 2812, Errantparabola wrote:
Commander Shepard
(6):
Dunnstral
, Shoshin, Krazy/DeasVail,
Fire Assassin
,
Vaxkiller

Shoshin
(3):
Vaxkiller
,
Commander Shepard
, guacamole
Fire Assassin
(1): Punreader
Not Voting
(2): Espeonage, the worst
This just about confirms my conclusions.

I will be clearing Vaxkiller because I will ignore the possibility of a pun godfather as that is stupid to consider that a one-shot cop JUST SO HAPPENED to target a pun godfather. Commander Shepherd could redirect actions on punbuddies, but only to himself; if Vaxkiller were pun, he would still be a guilty result if the actual investigation were Commander Shepherd.

Commander Shepherd could not, say, redirect actions on punbuddies onto, say, Dunnstral. And if he could, then I refuse to entertain the idea a one-shot cop JUST SO HAPPENED to be redirected from pun onto town in the one and only way possible. So he is still cleared.

I have good reason to believe the worst is town.
I have reasonable evidence suggesting Chara/Krazy is town.
guacamole has a chance, but is unlikely, to be pun.
DeasVail has a decent chance at being pun.
Espeonage has a high chance at being pun.

Shoshin is basically confpun.

So from this, Shoshin is the clear lynch.

I may need to explain why this VCA is so damning for Shoshin even though it should be readily apparent to people.
Full disclosure, at this moment, I thought that the worst had received the message I sent, because he posted this,
In post 2838, the worst wrote:massclaim tomorrow y/y
Which contained y/y which I thought was code for 'I am town'; it wasn't until I saw his isolated post of 'd' that I realized he hadn't received my message yet and was punclaiming there. So in this spot, my analysis was 100% genuine in thinking Shoshin was pun and Espeonage was Shoshin's punbuddy.
In post 2858, Punreader wrote:The players who most frequently voted one another were Commander Shepherd, Espeonage, Fire Assassin, and yourself. All four have votes almost always parked on another within the grouping. This pattern exists most strongly
after
Commander Shepherd replaced in and was almost entirely absent prior to Commander Shepherd replacing in.

For most of the game, red has been voting red. I know the pattern used. It fooled me at the time, true enough, but it had to come from a very specific gamestate in order to do so.
In post 2859, Punreader wrote:
In post 2855, Shoshin wrote:Pun, apply your defense of the worst to me because it actually applies with greater force.
To the contrary.
As the counterwagon to flipped pun, players would be likely to altogether clear you.

This would explain confidence in victory; if Commander Shepherd was confident that his flip would make people treat you as conftown when you're his punbuddy, his strategy would indeed be sensible.
I said this to Shoshin with Commander Shepherd, but the logic applied equally to Espeonage with Fire Assassin.
In post 2867, Punreader wrote:The proof is in Fire Assassin.

We know for a fact he, 100%, was bussing.

We know for a fact that cross-bus happened.

Do you deny it?

Of course not. It's evidence readily available for all.

So then there is a logical train to follow from that.

If the pun were heavily cross-bussing, what was the end plan of the cross-bussing?

All evidence points to deliberately trying to lynch a pun player.

And if he were deliberately trying to lynch a pun player (in this case, himself), it follows that there would be players who should be cleared from it.

We know it wasn't meant to clear Fire Assassin, because I stated I was going to shoot him upon a Commander Shepherd lynch and I wouldn't magically change my mind upon seeing his flip. I was still going to shoot Fire Assassin, and he knew I was still going to shoot Fire Assassin.

So if Fire Assassin wasn't the player meant to be cleared from the cross-bussing...

...Who was?

There are only a select few number of candidates.
Another one directed to Shoshin but equally applicable to Espeonage.
In post 2875, Punreader wrote:I repeat:
In post 2851, Punreader wrote:
In post 1960, Errantparabola wrote:
Commander Shepard
(3): Dunnstral,
Fire Assassin
, ManWithNoName
Shoshin
(2): Punreader, the worst
Fire Assassin
(1): Espeonage
In post 1996, Errantparabola wrote:
Shoshin
(3): Punreader, the worst,
Commander Shepard

Commander Shepard
(2):
Fire Assassin
, ManWithNoName
Fire Assassin
(1): Espeonage
In post 2076, Errantparabola wrote:
Commander Shepard
(2):
Fire Assassin
, ManWithNoName
Shoshin
(2): Punreader, the worst
Fire Assassin
(1): Espeonage
Vaxkiller
(1):
Commander Shepard
In post 2150, Errantparabola wrote:
Commander Shepard
(5):
Fire Assassin
, ManWithNoName,
Dunnstral
, Shoshin,
Vaxkiller

Shoshin
(3): Punreader, the worst,
Commander Shepard

Fire Assassin
(1): Espeonage
In post 2304, Errantparabola wrote:
Commander Shepard
(4):
Fire Assassin
,
Dunnstral
, Shoshin,
Vaxkiller

Fire Assassin
(4): Espeonage, ManWithNoName, the worst,
MariaR

Shoshin
(2): Punreader,
Commander Shepard
In post 2373, Errantparabola wrote:
Commander Shepard
(5):
Fire Assassin
, Shoshin,
Vaxkiller
,
MariaR
, DeasVail
Shoshin
(3): Punreader,
Commander Shepard
, the worst
Fire Assassin
(2): Espeonage, guacamole
DeasVail has a
chance
of being pun, a chance higher than that of guacamole, but would not be my first choice.
In post 2669, Errantparabola wrote:
Commander Shepard
(4):
Dunnstral
, Shoshin, Krazy/DeasVail
Fire Assassin
(1): Punreader
Shoshin
(1):
Vaxkiller
In post 2812, Errantparabola wrote:
Commander Shepard
(6):
Dunnstral
, Shoshin, Krazy/DeasVail,
Fire Assassin
,
Vaxkiller

Shoshin
(3):
Vaxkiller
,
Commander Shepard
, guacamole
Fire Assassin
(1): Punreader
Not Voting
(2): Espeonage, the worst
We know, 100% for a fact, Fire Assassin and Commander Shepherd were cross-bussing.
We know, 100% for a fact, I stated I was going to shoot Fire Assassin.
We can deduce, then, that the cross-buss between the two was not to give Fire Assassin town credit, given as how he was set to die.
We can then deduce, that if Fire Assassin was not the player being set up to get towncred, some other player was.

We can then reasonably infer, that if Fire Assassin was also set to die along side Commander Shepherd.
That Commander Shepherd was quite confident that once he flipped, his remaining two punbuddies would be positioned well enough to win.

Espeonage has been voting Fire Assassin the whole game. If any player were to be cleared by Fire Assassin's flip, the assumption would be him, especially given Fire Assassin's claimed result on Espeonage.

It is simply the conclusion which makes the most sense.
I would like to reiterate, these were before . At the time I wrote them, I believed the worst to be town. Because I believed him to be town, and I wanted to townside, I was sincere in everything I did. It was only
after
2883 that I realized the worst was pun, and at that point, I shifted from genuinely pushing, to pushing an agenda that was neither town or pun and was geared towards not being forced to choose town or pun.

And my goal, then, was to lynch the non-worst pun player to accomplish this.
In post 3136, Punreader wrote:
In post 2968, Espeonage wrote:I feel like pun is ignoring that distancing is a thing when multiple scum players are under pressure.
I beg your pardon?

My entire
case
is that pun players distance when pun are under pressure.
In post 3256, Punreader wrote:
In post 3158, Shoshin wrote:Let's have Pun shoot Guac, then?
There are only two lynches which will make me submit this.

One is Espeonage; the other is yourself.

Otherwise, I refuse.

So,
In post 3204, Krazy wrote:
Vote Espeonage

Current proposal is lynch espeonage, shoot guac.
Pun are you on board for this?
I am indeed.
VOTE: Espeonage.
In post 3257, Punreader wrote:
In post 3243, Shoshin wrote:Pun's shooting Guac, so I don't really feel like lynching there today.
My shot on there has the caveat of an Espeonage lynch.
In post 3309, Punreader wrote:
In post 3258, the worst wrote:work with me here? what are you seeing in Espe as scum?
This
is
me working with you.
You trust me, right?

Well then, trust me to have done the number crunching. I looked at all the figures.
The only lynches today that are even remotely good are Shoshin, Espeonage, and guacamole. guacamole's a mislynch, mind you, but at least he's a smart mislynch rather than a dumb one.

The math works out as such:
Assume, no matter what, Vaxkiller is not lynched.
Assume, no matter what, pun kill Vaxkiller as he is conftown.
  1. LYNCH: DeasVail/Krazy (the two are interchangeable in results):
    This is a mislynch. It subdivides from there.
    1. KILL: guacamole
      • If guacamole were pun, the pun player who is not guacamole likely has a way to prevent the vig from going through. guacamole lives through the night, making the vig a waste.
      • If guacamole is town, the pun let the vig go through. This then leaves us in 5p lylo.
        You are the player everyone has an incentive at this point to lynch; the other of DeasVail/Krazy wants you dead, Shoshin wants you dead, Espeonage wants you dead, and even I wouldn't be able to stop that lynch. This is, understandably, not ideal; it is a worst case scenario to be facing.
    2. DON'T KILL: guacamole:
      This need not be given bulletpoints as the result is the same regardless of his alignment. It's harder to mislynch you, and players are less inclined to do so.

      Conclusion: don't kill guacamole if one of Krazy/DeasVail is lynched.
  2. LYNCH: the worst
    I don't think I need to explain to you why that'd be bad, yes? It's self-evident to you.
  3. LYNCH: guacamole
    This is far from ideal, but it gets us into mylo tomorrow. It is still harder to mislynch you, and players are less inclined to do so. We have significantly more leeway than with a DeasVail/Krazy lynch in that regard.
  4. LYNCH: Shoshin/Espeonage (the two are interchangeable in results):
    This is a pun lynch. FURTHERMORE, both of their lynches have identical effects. They elevate you to conftown levels, and condemn the other. A Shoshin lynch means you never get lynched, the worst; an Espeonage lynch means you never get lynched; a lynch of Espeonage makes Shoshin a prime punbuddy candidate; a lynch of Shoshin given Shoshin's Espeonage defense points fingers at Espeonage rather strongly.
    guacamole can thus safely be shot.
Simply put. I thought ahead. I thought the way pun would be thinking, about the endgame
they
want to set up, and how to best deal with that endgame.

Krazy/DeasVail lynches today with a guacamole shot condemn you to die tomorrow, the worst. That is thus why they are not ideal.
Your lynch today is self-evidently not ideal, and I'm not going to exasperate it by then shooting guacamole.
guacamole's lynch today isn't the best, but it's not terrible. You're not condemned tomorrow, and we have a shot at winning the game.
Shoshin and Espeonage's lynches today are the best; they afford me the luxury of shooting town.

I am willing to shoot guacamole, then, on the lynch of a pun player.

I am not willing to shoot guacamole upon the lynch of a town player.

And I've made it quite unambiguous who I've felt is which alignment, yes?

So you can understand then why I'm not shooting guacamole if you lynch Krazy or DeasVail because that would be literally gamethrowing on my part.
In post 3261, Krazy wrote:Pun, Sho made an interesting point. Can you explain how scum would choose to rate Vax 0, thus increasing chances that Esp gets nightkilled by Dunn n1 by 15%? Like, you're thinking that scum create the scenario where Dunn can nightkill Esp just for the value in distancing?
You seem to have forgotten a fundamental fact regarding the bet.
Vaxkiller, one of the two players who needed to be ranked high/low, is proven town via MariaR's cop result.
Fire Assassin, the other of the two players who needed to be ranked high/low, is proven pun by his flip.

It thus says nothing about Espeonage's alignment that pun wanted Fire Assassin ranked higher than Vaxkiller, because that is a natural thing for them to have wanted.
I was openly signaling to the worst in this post: "You kill Vaxkiller, you bus Espeonage, and we get into a gamestate favorable for both of us".
In post 3311, Punreader wrote:
In post 3303, Shoshin wrote:I strongly believe the reason Pun won't vig guac is because Pun isn't town. There's no other reason to refuse that request.
Alternatively, I feel like vigging guacamole after mislynching town with the worst as a prime lynch candidate is absolutely not a good thing to do.

You'd have to be blind to not realize that's the exact gamestate we'd end up with in the events I outlined.

Or are you saying that if we mislynched Krazy/DeasVail and guacamole was vigged and flipped town, you'd suddenly be clearing the worst?

Of course not.
This is where I flat-out told Shoshin that Shoshin's planned course of action in mislynching Krazy/DeasVail with me shooting guacamole would force me to punside, and that I was
specifically trying to avoid that outcome
. Read this post and try to find any other possible interpretation of what my words mean here; I dare you to try because it is quite unambiguous and was as close to an outright 3p claim as I could get without claiming 3p.

If you need it spelled out:
Mislynching Krazy/DeasVail, then vigging guacamole with the pun shooting Vaxkiller, would lead to 5p lylo, two pun alive. I would out the worst as pun and lynch him...but then I'd have one and only one infection left I could safely make, Espeonage; I'd infect him, he'd kill the other of DeasVail/Krazy, and I'd leave the game which would leave Espeonage alone with Shoshin; pun win.

I was outright telling Shoshin that Shoshin was plotting a course that would doom the town and fought hard to prevent it. Which I reiterate here:
In post 3332, Punreader wrote:
In post 3316, Shoshin wrote:The biggest problem I have is that you're not thinking about the big picture.
To the contrary! I am the
only
person thinking of the big picture. Thinking of the big picture is why I am doing the things I am.
Thinking of the bigger picture and knowing the consequences of a Krazy/DeasVail mislynch with a guacamole vig is precisely why I was arguing not to have that happen. I repeat, I did not want to punside. I can't play against my wincon so if the choice is punside or lose I'm going to punside, but if the choice is win with a punside or win without punsiding I preferred winning without punsiding.
In post 3333, Punreader wrote:
In post 3325, Espeonage wrote:Basically thinking about it, if you believe there's an sk, they have a vested interest in lynching town.
Thus why my vested interest in not wanting to lynch town and refusing to shoot town after having mislynched helps demonstrate decisively why I'm not a serial killer.

As you yourself note. Were I a serial killer, I'd have no reason to refuse to shoot guacamole. Regardless of guacamole's alignment, his death would be an extra person dead, pushing the game closer to where I'd be the last alive. But because I am not a serial killer, I have to pursue my actual wincon. And my actual wincon tells me that shooting guacamole is a stupid idea if we mislynch today.
In post 3324, Espeonage wrote:Wait why is pun convinced me and Sho are scum?
It's a combination of reasons, from POE, what agendas you are pushing compared to what "agendas" others are pushing, and simple analysis of the gamestate.
Here I not only reinforce my wincon but outline why Espeonage is pun further.
In post 3334, Punreader wrote:Forgot to include this.
In post 3329, Espeonage wrote:It explains the turnaround evident in even just this day phase.
My turnaround, as you so call it, can also far more simply be explained by me having done analysis and from the conclusions of said analysis, come to the conclusions I did.

Not all of these are even new conclusions.
Krazy, DeasVail, and guacamole townreads in particular are townreads I've held for a significant amount of time. If you think otherwise, that is a failure on your part to have paid attention to my reads on prior day phases since the last time I held suspicion on any of them was on D2. All of them have been townreads since D3, to varying extents.

You and the worst are the only reads which I can say have changed today. You to pun, the worst to town.
Here I further pushed him as pun.
In post 3527, Punreader wrote:
In post 3364, the worst wrote:but we need to make sure there's actually a tomorrow. trust me back?
Oh there's a tomorrow no matter what.

The problem is leaving tomorrow winnable.
In post 3337, Shoshin wrote:Like, you'd think he would have reevaluated his reads after that terrible read on Shepard, but instead he's doubling down on his bad reads.
Sorry, I don't act the way you want me to act. I act the way I
should
act. And calling the pun as I see them is what I should do.
In post 3345, the worst wrote:- from a meta point of view you're looking at Espe who is a VERY good busser and FireAss who I don't really have a strong sense of the meta on.
I'll answer for you: Fire Assassin is far more likely to claim a guilty on a punbuddy than on a town player.
In post 3348, the worst wrote:Considering how badly executed this would've been if it were a cross bus?
Well on Fire Assassin's part, naturally.

On Espeonage's part, this seems par for the course from him.

Your argument for Espeonage being town is still fallacious because you're literally using Burden of Proficiency combined with "too punny to be pun". ("Too half-assed to be bussing" is exactly that.)
Here I again reinforce the message: I was attempting not to punside. Now I would have preferred not to choose a side at all, to win without playing kingmaker, but I was very adamant about not punsiding. I further reiterated more reasons for Espeonage to be pun.
In post 3528, Punreader wrote:
In post 3527, Punreader wrote:
In post 3348, the worst wrote:Considering how badly executed this would've been if it were a cross bus?
Well on Fire Assassin's part, naturally.
What I mean by this is, Fire Assassin is precisely the type of player that would execute an abysmally bad cross-bus.

It goes hand-in-hand with fakeclaiming guilties as town; that's just the sort of player he is.
Sure enough, I was right because I knew what I was talking about.
In post 3592, Punreader wrote:
In post 3591, Vaxkiller wrote:I'm wondering if we have to kill punreader today, not sure we can lynch scum today and wait until tomorrow to kill him...i think he would win. (assuming hes an sk)
There is a sufficiently large risk in me claiming this, but pun were supposed to kill you last night and they didn't, so I suppose I'll take the risk anyway.

I am indeed a third party.
I am not in fact a serial killer.

I claimed both to Dunnstral, and to the worst; the former, via neighborhood, the latter, via message.

My full role is much as I have claimed it.
I have a passive, Libel and Slander. 0s and 1s people give me are given double weight.
I have a passive, Stadium Status. This is in fact a conditional bulletproof, but I lied about the condition. The real condition is in some ways stronger but other ways weaker: as long as my D1 ranking is above half of the living, I'm bulletproof. Given as how I've been in the bottom 50% the whole game, I've been wide open to attack the whole time.
I have a passive, Chip Represent!. This is access to the neighborhood consisting of Commander Shepherd and Dunnstral. (I claimed to Dunnstral once Commander Shepherd was dead.)

My active ability, Spread the Word, is in fact a conditional vig. When I target someone ranked lower than me, I kill them. You're the only player ranked lower than me and I absolutely refuse to kill you at this point (if for no other reason than it'd render my win impossible and pun should want you dead anyway so I'm not doing their work for them when they screwed me over by not killing you), so I am not going to kill again.

However, I breadcrumbed yet never claimed that there is another half of Spread the Word: when I target someone ranked
higher
than me, I infect them. This infection does nothing; it doesn't kill them, it doesn't spread, it's completely and entirely harmless. But it is related to my wincon.

My wincon is for every living player to be infected. As all of my target claims have been truthful, what this means is the only player I have infected right now is Shoshin, and maybe not even Shoshin if Shoshin's role is immune to mine. If Shoshin's role is immune to mine, I am in a position where it's impossible to win.

I can win posthumously, and if I win, explicitly the game continues on after I win. (Specifically, it says that I win when everyone alive is infected and that I do not need to be alive to win.)

In my message to the worst, I asked him to claim his alignment to me, with y/d in place of t/s;
Right here he did so. I was specifically hoping to navigate the gamestate to a situation where I knew the identity of the last pun but could win without playing kingmaker. I didn't want to punside due to promising I'd help Dunnstral (and my natural inclination to help town the whole game) nor after the worst trusted me did I want to betray him and townside.

This means yes, I am fairly certain Espeonage is the worst's punbuddy. After all. With two kills you know there's pun left alive; you then have a choice: believe his punbuddy bussed him, or believe Espeonage is the punbuddy.

The options available to the town then are the following:
  1. Lynch me. I can't win, presumably Vaxkiller is shot by the last pun, and you have a 3p lylo. If you assume Shoshin is town (which I would, by the way; I knew Shoshin was town yesterday due to knowing the worst was pun so I apologize for that push), that's a 50/50 shot but I'd strongly recommend the Espeonage lynch and can cite the worst's defense of him as proof.
  2. Lynch someone else.
    • If you lynch the last pun, I lose because I am not a threat to the town and did not fulfill my wincon.
    • If you lynch town, then I target the player I haven't infected.
      • If Shoshin was infected and pun nightkill Vaxkiller, then I am removed from the game; presumably, this would result in a pun win.
      • If the pun doesn't eliminate Vaxkiller or Shoshin wasn't infected, then we get to a 3p situation; I may or may not be able to win but town's chances aren't great.
    Given that a mislynch today leaves the town's chances as fairly slim, you'll not want to take that risk I'd wager.
  3. No-lynch. In return for having not lynched me, I'd target the player you want me to in {Espeonage, DeasVail}. (You want me to be targeting TOWN.) In 4p mylo, we'd lynch the other, and we can win together. This is effectively identical to the first option, in that you are taking a 50/50, it's just that this option allows me to win with the town as well.
In short, due to the actions of both town (lynching the worst) and pun (not killing Vaxkiller), I
am
being forced to choose a side.

I was already inclined to townside by default and double-downed on that with Dunnstral. I never intended to punside; I was simply aiming for a gamestate where I wouldn't need to choose a side to win. But since no matter what I do at this point I
will
be helping a victor, I made my choice and am selecting the town.

VOTE: No Lynch.
Here I outline reasons for Espeonage to be pun, Shoshin to be town, and reiterate that Vaxkiller is town.
In post 3595, Punreader wrote:(I maintain that Espeonage was a better lynch than the worst because I knew the worst to be pun; I only deduced Espeonage to be his partner.)
Here once more I reiterate it.
In post 3602, Punreader wrote:But since I'm convinced Espeonage is the worst's punbuddy and have been convinced Espeonage is pun even before the worst claimed pun to me, obviously I already believed guacamole to be town anyway.
And again.
In post 3626, Punreader wrote:I have also shown that I am punhunting.

In particular:
In post 3619, Shoshin wrote:Have you picked up any associative tells from the worst?
Yes, plenty. Which you'd have known if you paid attention to my wall.

the worst spewed Espeonage as pun, hard. Look at his constant defense of the slot.
Similarly, look at how Espeonage in spite of having numerous opportunities not once was voting the worst.

Again,
In post 3585, Errantparabola wrote:
the worst
(5): Vaxkiller, Krazy, DeasVail, Shoshin, guacamole
Espeonage
(1): Punreader
Krazy
(1): Espeonage
Not Voting
(1): the worst
To reiterate. The options you are left with are that Espeonage is the worst's punbuddy...or that Espeonage's punbuddy bussed. Evidence of the latter not being true: if the worst's punbuddy had bussed, then there was no incentive for Krazy to have been the nightkill. Krazy and Shoshin were two of the hardest pushers of the worst being pun, but if DeasVail or Shoshin were pun, then they'd want to maximize the number of players alive on the worst's wagon as to not stand out more.

Whereas in an Espeonage-pun world, Espeonage would believe that he'd need to nightkill the players with the most towncred.
Here I provide unique, new reasons for Espeonage to be pun, reasons absent prior to this point in the game.
In post 3628, Punreader wrote:
In post 3626, Punreader wrote:
In post 3585, Errantparabola wrote:
the worst
(5): Vaxkiller, Krazy, DeasVail, Shoshin, guacamole
Espeonage
(1): Punreader
Krazy
(1): Espeonage
Not Voting
(1): the worst
To reiterate. The options you are left with are that Espeonage is the worst's punbuddy...or that Espeonage's punbuddy bussed. Evidence of the latter not being true: if the worst's punbuddy had bussed, then there was no incentive for Krazy to have been the nightkill. Krazy and Shoshin were two of the hardest pushers of the worst being pun, but if DeasVail or Shoshin were pun, then they'd want to maximize the number of players alive on the worst's wagon as to not stand out more.

Whereas in an Espeonage-pun world, Espeonage would believe that he'd need to nightkill the players with the most towncred.
To further clarify:
You are left with those two worlds. Place yourself into the pun's shoes in both worlds.

In the world where the last punbuddy bussed, they want to get towncred for having bussed. The more players alive from the wagon, the more towncred they are likely to get, due to groupthinking. Players who are on the lynch know they were on the lynch as town, and thus, are naturally going to be more inclined by default to assume the others on the lynch were also town.

FURTHERMORE. In the event the town is smart enough to deduce that pun bussed, by killing a member of the wagon, they are narrowing the pool of who said pun bussing could be, making it easier to spot them.

In contrast, imagine a world where the last punbuddy
didn't
bus.
The know they have no town credit.
The players on the wagon are, thanks to groupthinking, likely to townread one another. This is disastrous; killing a member of the wagon can help to break that cohesion. Furthermore, because they are not a member of the wagon, the thought that killing a member of the wagon would narrow down who the pun are never occurs to them; they are more worried about the wagon being townread due to bias of knowing it was all town.

This is why the Krazy nightkill points to Espeonage as pun.

For further evidence, refer to how the worst treated Espeonage, and how Espeonage treated the worst.

If that's not enough, then read my case I made against him yesterday, discarding the part about Shoshin (which was written mostly to protect the worst). Everything I said about him then was sincere, and remains true today.
I further extrapolate on this here.
In post 3630, Punreader wrote:
In post 842, the worst wrote:9 - Espeonage
In post 3207, the worst wrote:I'm still pretty sure Espe is town, and that case amounts to something closer to "he doesn't deserve to win" than "he's scum". I need to counter case this but it's prolly gonna have to wait til I'm at a PC.
In post 3219, the worst wrote:^^^^^^^^^
I'd take it if he brushed on any actual reasons to suspect Espe (I've argued with myself over it quite a lot) but on the balance of things Krazy is probably just scum here.
In post 3258, the worst wrote:I'm pretty sure that's a bad lynch Pun. work with me here? what are you seeing in Espe as scum?
(KEEP IN MIND THE WORST AND I WERE TRYING TO SIGNAL TO ONE ANOTHER WHAT TO DO DURING THE NIGHT AT THIS TIME)
In post 3276, the worst wrote:bro have you read a game Espe has ever been in?
In post 3345, the worst wrote:- I'm townreading the dude and I'm getting better at reading espe. this is not a gamestate that turns scum!Espe off. he loves bussing and loves chaos when he's controlling it, and he's far more liable to phase out when he's town. it's not quite a reverse Creature tell but it's almost there--if Espe is disengaged, there's a >random chance he's town.
- from a meta point of view you're looking at Espe who is a VERY good busser and FireAss who I don't really have a strong sense of the meta on. like this clusterfuck of scumreads and claims between the two is a pain in the ass to read but I don't think I understand what the hell either of them are meant to gain from it. Espe tunnels FA for either a bus or because his role tells him to which is whatever. it's difficult to read into his read accuracy because he poker faced his early read pretty hard. either he's realised he's genuinely scumreading the dude who's rankings he needs to tank or he's done like a super half assed job of bussing....which gives him no benefit whatsoever. if anything the way they courted with wagoning each other just feels like unnecessary associatives. I don't see him going down this path with a scumbuddy? plus like FireAss was scummy as hell with his creepy SOD1 TMIey reads. as someone who fucking loves fakeclaiming alignment cops I can tell you for a fact that FireAss did not fakeclaim that shit in order to be the scumteam's carry. Krazy can you talk to me for a sec? what the fuck do either Espe or Fire gain from this exchange if it's a crossbus? it just feels too messy to be like an actual plan which two people planned.

- your suggestion that his claim is bullshit doesn't feel considered in more than two dimensions bro. he's claimed Dunn's role sans the neighbour thing. if he was scum with Dunn's role + x ability why would he not just claim Dunn's role + an ability? like this would just be pants on head as either alignment. I'd fucking bet you if we flip Espe, his role flips as Dunn's role without the extra ability.

- I know the mechanics thing is kinda whatever but suggesting the betters are t/s and the bettees are t/s is kinda..... eh. I'd believe t/t + s/s before I'd believe that. going t/s + t/s basically forces scum to play a particular style, which is grossly unfun. having a mafia role who is like, forced to bus a particular team mate? I personally hate bussing and would instantly replace out. Can't see a game which was in the review process so long being approved with a role which is just blatantly unfun.
In post 3349, the worst wrote:I actually haven't weighted my Espe and Shosh reads against each other. I just don't really see either flipping scum here.

definitely townread Espe before I townread Shoshin (needed her to show me what to actually look for which was a little embarrassing) but they're probably roughly equal?
Here I show why the worst's iso incriminates Espeonage.
In post 3632, Punreader wrote:
In post 3397, Espeonage wrote:For the record I also agree with Sho's lynchpool assessment above. I would order it as probably Krazy, Guac, DV, worst at this point. Scum worst doesn't need to meta me like that, and scum DV also doesn't need to defend me like he has. Basically I've started giving cred to people who are resistant to town lynched.
In post 853, Espeonage wrote:I'll be honest. I put the worst high because I reckon I'll be able to read him later and I genuinely like him. Because I forsee that question coming too.
Look what I found.
More reasons for Espeonage to be pun.
In post 3698, Punreader wrote:Fair warning: I don't have enough time to post content TODAY, and while I have time tomorrow, I don't have enough time to do what I WANT.

On Saturday, however, what I intend to do is write a towncase and puncase on each of the three players spanning the whole game and including meta; I want everyone to read those and give feedback on them.
It'll just take me some time to write, which I won't have for the next 48 hours.
You didn't give me the chance to do this for some ungodly reason but had you the overall conclusion you would have seen would have boiled down to something like this.

There was almost zero reasons whatsoever for DeasVail; basically the only reasons for him to be pun would be based around assumptions of general competency from him as a player. Admittedly, there aren't many reasons for him to be town, but he was unique among you three for having no real reasons to be pun.

The reasons for Shoshin to be pun were more extensive, but so too were the reasons for Shoshin to be town. You could even say Shoshin would be a mirror to DeasVail; whereas I had very little to say about DeasVail as either alignment, I had plenty to say about Shoshin for both alignments.

Yet Ankamius stood out among you three. The reasons for Ankamius to be town amounted to attributing things I knew to be NAI as town (a stretch) combined with arguing that Espeonage didn't bus and Fire Assassin wouldn't guilty his partner (both things I didn't actually believe to be true). In other words, the reasons for Ankamius to be town were shit.

The reasons for Ankamius to be pun included all the points I made against Espeonage and am quoting here, in addition to Ankamius's appeal to me which she as the last pun would need to make.

I would have given you a full wall on the subject outlining this but since you lynched her before I could, oh well.

The point I am making here is, I have time and time again proven myself to be honest and telling the truth; I have time and time again done much as I have said and been shown to be correct.

Time and time again, you theorize as to how my actions could be malicious, yet time and time again, evidence shows otherwise.

So I ask again.

What logic would you like to present today for proof of malevolence?
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Post Post #3737 (isolation #167) » Sun Aug 26, 2018 10:53 am

Post by Punreader »

In post 3731, Punreader wrote:To explain the math further:

There are four possible scenarios:
  1. I am not a threat to the town, precisely as claimed. There is no other nontown. In spite of the town having already won, the game continues until I either win or lose.

    If so, you have nothing to lose by no lynching and letting me shoot Vaxkiller to win.

  2. I am a threat to the town.
    I have threefold proof that this is not the case, albeit two being my word.
    The first reason: I can win when dead. The town wincon is eliminating threats. If I can win when dead, I can't be a threat, because I was already eliminated. If I am dead, thus, eliminated, yet can win posthumously, by definition, I cannot be a threat.

    The second proof is from a lack of mod clarification. When I misunderstood my 0s/1s passive ability, Errantparabola provided me with clarification. This sets a precedence; if I misunderstood my wincon, then he should have clarified it in the same manner. He did not.

    The third is public, in the town win condition. The town wins if all threats to the town are eliminated. If my wincon was a threat, the mod could just specify to eliminate any and all nontown.

    As this didn't happen, we have proof that I am not a threat to the town if I am real claiming.

  3. I am a serial killer. Obviously I know that this is not the case, but were it, I'd need to win a 3p lylo or 4p Mylo.

    By no lynching, you lose nothing. A sk-pun can't win overnight. A truthful pun can. Thus, the Vaxkiller night kill serves as a SK test. I don't win, you lynch me in 3p. I do get removed, well then I wasn't a serial killer! So no lynching costs nothing but gives you a chance to check my alignment.

  4. There is a threat to the town, and I am not it; it's one of you three.
    Were this the case, then unless it's Vaxkiller, the town already lost.
    Lynch me, the threat to the town wins.
    No lynch, I kill Vaxkiller, win, and if the threat isn't Vaxkiller, it endgames the last town player.

    Thus. If you believe Vaxkiller is antitown, let me shoot him; if you don't, then you must assume that this is not the scenario we are in.
Regardless, optimal play in all three possible scenarios is to no lynch.
I would like to reiterate.

WHAT DO YOU LOSE BY NO LYNCHING?


I ask that again.

WHAT DO YOU LOSE BY NO LYNCHING?

Name a single thing you lose by no-lynching.

What do you gain by no-lynching?
You gain proof of what I have claimed.

If I am a serial killer, I cannot win overnight.

If I am a poisoner, I cannot kill more than one person a night; tomorrow would be 3p lylo.
If I am an arsonist, you better come up with an explanation as to how I killed two people consecutively given that arsonists need to prime then ignite and cannot do both. (An arsonist that can both prime and ignite IS a poisoner.)

If I am not a serial killer, and there is a threat to the town, then you lose by lynching me.

This is self-evident. I am not a threat to the town; by leaving a threat to the town alive, you let them win.

If I am not a serial killer, and the threat to the town is Vaxkiller, then you win by letting me shoot him.

So you should no lynch and give me the chance.

If I am not a serial killer, and the threat to the town is Shoshin, and Shoshin holds immunity to my action, then you win by letting me shoot Vaxkiller.
Since tomorrow I'd vote Shoshin knowing that was the only variable left. Of course you'd lynch me and lose as per the above, but let's not be redundant here.

If I am not a serial killer, and the threat to the town is DeasVail, then he has won no matter what.
And his actions voting me would be being a dick seeing as how I am close to winning and my wincon is not mutually exclusive to anyone else's.
Consolation prize: I get to say I Told You So and, "I warned you!" to Shoshin because really. I did.

If I am not a serial killer, and no threat to the town exists, then you lose nothing by letting me live.

Because I can kill only one person this game, and killing them lets me win, and my wincon is not one mutually exclusive to the town.
I'll once more paraphrase it in my next post for emphasis.
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Post Post #3738 (isolation #168) » Sun Aug 26, 2018 10:55 am

Post by Punreader »

I'd like to point out.
The wording, once more, of my wincon:
I win and exit the game if everyone alive is infected; I don't need to be alive in order to win.

EXITING THE GAME MEANS THAT THE GAME CONTINUES AFTER I WIN.
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Post Post #3739 (isolation #169) » Sun Aug 26, 2018 10:56 am

Post by Punreader »

In post 3738, Punreader wrote:I'd like to point out.
The wording, once more, of my wincon:
I win and exit the game if everyone alive is infected; I don't need to be alive in order to win.

EXITING THE GAME MEANS THAT THE GAME CONTINUES AFTER I WIN.
Like, that's so close to a direct paraphrase that Errantparabola would be merciful to not modkill me for it.

I can't more directly quote it than that because that's literally what it says.

I win, and exit the game, if everyone alive is infected. I don't need to be alive to win.

So I cannot be a threat to the town. Because if I were a threat to the town, then I wouldn't
exit
the game; I would
end
the game. But I DON'T end the game because I'm NOT a threat to the town.
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Post Post #3740 (isolation #170) » Sun Aug 26, 2018 11:03 am

Post by Punreader »

In post 3734, DeasVail wrote:VOTE: punreader
DeasVail, please.

You know who I am, most likely.

You have experience with me.

How do I treat third parties?

Tell me how I treat them.

I treat them as if they are town for precisely this reason.

How often do I lie about my role?

Tell me how often I would lie about this sort of thing.

How often do I lie about the driving forces of my play?
How often do I lie about mafia theory?
How often do I lie about what I was doing, especially when revealing previous lies? That is, how often when I claim I am coming clean, am I still lying?

I am not lying here.

I can't be a threat to the town.
I'm not a serial killer; my wincon is basically a reverse serial killer because I require people to be alive. I do require specific players dead, but I also require people alive.

You could aptly describe my role as a combination reverse-survivor/lyncher; I need those lower than me dead because they can't be infected, and those higher than me to survive, irregardless of whether I live or not.

You lose literally nothing by no lynching.
So I ask again.

WHAT DO YOU LOSE BY NO LYNCHING?
Where am I lying?
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Post Post #3741 (isolation #171) » Sun Aug 26, 2018 11:06 am

Post by Punreader »

In post 3740, Punreader wrote:
In post 3734, DeasVail wrote:VOTE: punreader
DeasVail, please.

You know who I am, most likely.

You have experience with me.

How do I treat third parties?

Tell me how I treat them.

I treat them as if they are town for precisely this reason.

How often do I lie about my role?

Tell me how often I would lie about this sort of thing.

How often do I lie about the driving forces of my play?
How often do I lie about mafia theory?
How often do I lie about what I was doing, especially when revealing previous lies? That is, how often when I claim I am coming clean, am I still lying?

I am not lying here.

I can't be a threat to the town.
I'm not a serial killer; my wincon is basically a reverse serial killer because I require people to be alive. I do require specific players dead, but I also require people alive.

You could aptly describe my role as a combination reverse-survivor/lyncher; I need those lower than me dead because they can't be infected, and those higher than me to survive, irregardless of whether I live or not.

You lose literally nothing by no lynching.
So I ask again.

WHAT DO YOU LOSE BY NO LYNCHING?
Where am I lying?
And I would also like to ask you.
WHICH ROLE MAKES MORE SENSE?
A serial killer that can only kill those ranked lower than them and is totally at the mercy of those ranked higher...
...Or a third party that uses the ranks of those higher, that also has an effect on those ranked lower?

SPECIFICALLY WHICH IS A ROLE ERRANTPARABOLA IS MORE LIKELY TO UTILIZE.
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Post Post #3742 (isolation #172) » Sun Aug 26, 2018 11:15 am

Post by Punreader »

Past Errantparabola Modded Games

While admittedly there is no third parties at all, you may note that there are plenty of roles where there's modified vigs, modified bulletproofs, and even MODIFIED BULLETPROOF VIGS in his games. The type of role I am precisely lined up with being.

My role was, very evidently, designed to be one which heavily favored townsiding.
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Post Post #3743 (isolation #173) » Sun Aug 26, 2018 11:23 am

Post by Punreader »

If too lazy to click the links, try this:
Subject: Large Normal 197: Wordplay Mafia OVER
Errantparabola wrote:3. iraonavp,
Town Night 3 Vigilante
, lynched D1.
9. ChaosOmega,
Town One-shot Bulletproof Neapolitan
, lynched D2.
8. SpyreX,
Town Bulletproof Enabler
, killed N3.
10. Nahdia,
Mafia One-shot Bulletproof Goon
, killed N5.
5. Titus,
Town Night 1 Vigilante
, killed N6.
13. Bins,
Town One-shot Bulletproof Odd-night Doctor
, killed N7.
12. gerryoat,
Town One-shot Bulletproof Night 5 Vigilante
, killed Endgame.
Subject: ~laundry~ FIN
Errantparabola wrote:7. Firebringer,
Town 1-shot Bulletproof Vest Giver
, killed N4.
2. drealmerz7,
Town Delayed 1-shot Vig
, lynched D8.
Subject: Mini 1932: Dedede Fusion Collab (FIN)
Errantparabola wrote:
ChiaotzuHi.
You are
Maroon 5
, who released "Animals" in 2014.
You are a
Delayed 1-shot Murderous Tracker
.

Alignment
: You are aligned with the Town. You win when all threats to town are dead, and there is at least one member of town alive.
Thrill of the Hunt
:
Baby I'm preying on you tonight, hunt you down eat you alive.
During Night 3 onward, and once per game, you can target someone during the Night Phase. You will be informed of any people they choose to visit. If they did not visit anyone, you will instead nightkill them.

Here's the game thread.
Confirm that you understand everything in the role PM.
Have fun.


Chiaotzu, the
Delayed 1-shot Murderous Tracker
, has been lynched on D4.
(HEY LOOK WHAT THIS ROLE HAS! A MECHANIC THAT IS "Do this other thing; if that other thing doesn't happen, kill". GUESS WHAT MY ROLE IS THIS GAME.)
Subject: Mini 1932: Dedede Fusion Collab (FIN)
Errantparabola wrote:8. Wisdom,
Enabled Bulletproof 1-shot Roleblocker
, lynched D2.
Subject: Mini 1932: Dedede Fusion Collab (FIN)
Errantparabola wrote:
when warthogs flyHi.
You are the
Quad City DJs
, who released the title song of "Space Jam" in 1996.
You are a
Town Non Consecutive Jack-of-all-Trades
.

Alignment
: You are aligned with the Town. You win when all threats to town are dead, and there is at least one member of town alive.
Come On and Slam
:
And welcome to the jam!
You have 3 one-shot abilities that you can use on non-consecutive Night Phases. They are as follows:
  • - Free Throw: Choose someone to visit. They will be protected from the first nightkill attempt on them.
    - 2 Pointer: Choose someone to visit. You will find out everyone they visit.
    - 3 Pointer: Choose someone to visit. You will nightkill them.
Here's the game thread.
Confirm that you understand everything in the role PM.
Have fun.
Other roles from that game!

But I think I only need to show the tracker/killer role to show how my role is real and works as claimed.
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Post Post #3744 (isolation #174) » Sun Aug 26, 2018 11:26 am

Post by Punreader »

In post 3743, Punreader wrote:Subject: Mini 1932: Dedede Fusion Collab (FIN)
Errantparabola wrote:
ChiaotzuYou are a
Delayed 1-shot Murderous Tracker
.

Thrill of the Hunt
:
Baby I'm preying on you tonight, hunt you down eat you alive.
During Night 3 onward, and once per game, you can target someone during the Night Phase. You will be informed of any people they choose to visit. If they did not visit anyone, you will instead nightkill them.
Chiaotzu, the
Delayed 1-shot Murderous Tracker
, has been lynched on D4.
(HEY LOOK WHAT THIS ROLE HAS! A MECHANIC THAT IS "Do this other thing; if that other thing doesn't happen, kill". GUESS WHAT MY ROLE IS THIS GAME.)
This is literally the same exact mechanic by which my "Spread the Word" ability works.

I target someone. If they are ranked lower than me, I kill them; if they are not, I infect them.

This role is proof that my role is not a fakeclaim.

If my role is not a fakeclaim.

Then you have the evidence.
My wincon is not faked either.

It works as claimed.
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Post Post #3745 (isolation #175) » Sun Aug 26, 2018 11:36 am

Post by Punreader »

TO SUMMARIZE:
  1. provides the proof that I am not fakeclaiming the mechanics of my role. The mechanics of my role are almost identical to that of an obscure source, a game Errantparabola modded and yet did not have easily-listed flips for. That flip? Isn't in the first post; the only way to find it is to iso the mod and look for it, something I would not have the ability to do.
  2. provides a list of similar roles Errantparabola has used in past games; the list is quite extensive, as Errantparabola has shown a strong favoring to this type of role, providing further supporting evidence corroborating that my roleclaim is real.
  3. , I outline that I would not lie about this sort of thing.
  4. , I give as close as a direct paraphrase of my wincon as I can.
    READ THE WINCON AND TELL ME THAT YOU THINK I AM A THREAT TO THE TOWN. I DARE YOU.
    And if you think I am a liar, see the above points.
  5. If that's not enough proof I'm not lying, I show my thought process in . Highlights from there include , , , and .
  6. But if all of that STILL isn't enough. Then I ask you to read and answer my question.
    WHAT DO YOU LOSE BY NO-LYNCHING?
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Post Post #3746 (isolation #176) » Sun Aug 26, 2018 11:49 am

Post by Punreader »

And while I hesitate to add lynched pun to the list:
In post 3717, Ankamius wrote:I fully believe everything I said though, I don't think I'd ever be SK reading Pun this game and everything else falls into place afterwards

That really wasn't a hard deduction to get to and I'd have the pieces in place about as fast as town
In post 3718, Ankamius wrote:That said... scum really are the only people that would want to kill Pun today

Town optimally wanted to no lynch regardless of Pun's alignment, I couldn't figure out how to try to steer the game away from Pun's lynch without pointing out that specific option since I never would have had a chance if it happened.
In post 3720, Ankamius wrote:Well, if you listened to the person who knew Pun wasn't an SK, you wouldn't have had that paranoia :P
In post 3721, Ankamius wrote:but the scenario I had in mind was forcing a no lynch, killing Vax, and then forcing another no lynch so that Pun as SK would be forced to kill scum.

it does take into account that Pun would be townsiding as promised, but at this point they would be able to get a 100% accurate read on me and either just shoot me dead as scum or probably shoot the target we end up syncing on

the only scenario I thought I had any chance in was specifically to go to bat to protect Pun and then in 3p lylo hope that's enough to sway them towards siding with me and no lynching in 3p

the gamestate was kind of impossible to sway that way without outing myself though

oh well
Ankamius is the player who has the most extensive experience with me; for this, I can cite examples such as all of Fallout 4 Mafia but particularly here and over half of Police Academy.

Also holding extensive experience with me would be Commander Shepherd, who said much the same of me:
In post 2798, Commander Shepard wrote:
In post 2777, Shoshin wrote:If he's scum, I suggest shooting Pun.
Pun was actually a fun 3P to manipulate.

I figured out how she reads me.

Don’t blame her. She loves the truth and I rarely lie.

So the one time in 10+ years I did all out lying. Poor Pun. <3

Post game I will give her all the hugs.
In post 2793, Commander Shepard wrote:In all seriousness this was fun thanks everyone

Good luck scum and have fun town
And Pun <3 Good luck 3P’s are hard.
The punteam knew I wasn't a serial killer. They knew I was a 3p and telling the truth. Because they know me and know I don't lie about this sort of thing. Keep in mind both players, all of the quotes I am pulling up are after their lynches were locked in and they literally punclaimed, confessed to being pun, and thus had little reason to hide their thoughts on me.

Ankamius had nothing to gain by backing me up, yet did so anyway; Commander Shepherd you can argue was positioning punbuddies but really was not pushing an agenda when backing me up so much as consolidating me on what I am and knowing it'd be tough.

I am what I claim I am, and am not a threat to the town.
You're being assholes by lynching me and I do hope that there actually is a threat to the town and you lose because of it by not listening to fucking reason.

Because I've raised as many points as humanly possible, and not once have they been answered.
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Post Post #3747 (isolation #177) » Sun Aug 26, 2018 11:53 am

Post by Punreader »

In post 3745, Punreader wrote:
TO SUMMARIZE:
  1. Per , the pun have laid out precisely how they know I'm what I claim, even after they had no reason to hide the truth.
  2. provides the proof that I am not fakeclaiming the mechanics of my role. The mechanics of my role are almost identical to that of an obscure source, a game Errantparabola modded and yet did not have easily-listed flips for. That flip? Isn't in the first post; the only way to find it is to iso the mod and look for it, something I would not have the ability to do.
  3. provides a list of similar roles Errantparabola has used in past games; the list is quite extensive, as Errantparabola has shown a strong favoring to this type of role, providing further supporting evidence corroborating that my roleclaim is real.
  4. , I outline that I would not lie about this sort of thing.
  5. , I give as close as a direct paraphrase of my wincon as I can.
    READ THE WINCON AND TELL ME THAT YOU THINK I AM A THREAT TO THE TOWN. I DARE YOU.
    And if you think I am a liar, see the above points.
  6. If that's not enough proof I'm not lying, I show my thought process in . Highlights from there include , , , and .
  7. But if all of that STILL isn't enough. Then I ask you to read and answer my question.
    WHAT DO YOU LOSE BY NO-LYNCHING?
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Post Post #3748 (isolation #178) » Sun Aug 26, 2018 12:05 pm

Post by Punreader »

In post 2584, Errantparabola wrote:
Active: Moody
(
Your stats change unpredictably...
) -- Once per Night Phase, you can choose between three different one shot powers.
(+ATK -SPD)
Target someone to be informed of whether or not they are mafia, and do nothing the next Night Phase.
Also worth noting is that MariaR's investigation was specifically for mafia, demonstrating the nature of the game further.
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Post Post #3750 (isolation #179) » Sun Aug 26, 2018 2:42 pm

Post by Punreader »

In post 3747, Punreader wrote:
In post 3745, Punreader wrote:
TO SUMMARIZE:
  1. Per , the pun have laid out precisely how they know I'm what I claim, even after they had no reason to hide the truth.
  2. provides the proof that I am not fakeclaiming the mechanics of my role. The mechanics of my role are almost identical to that of an obscure source, a game Errantparabola modded and yet did not have easily-listed flips for. That flip? Isn't in the first post; the only way to find it is to iso the mod and look for it, something I would not have the ability to do.
  3. provides a list of similar roles Errantparabola has used in past games; the list is quite extensive, as Errantparabola has shown a strong favoring to this type of role, providing further supporting evidence corroborating that my roleclaim is real.
  4. , I outline that I would not lie about this sort of thing.
  5. , I give as close as a direct paraphrase of my wincon as I can.
    READ THE WINCON AND TELL ME THAT YOU THINK I AM A THREAT TO THE TOWN. I DARE YOU.
    And if you think I am a liar, see the above points.
  6. If that's not enough proof I'm not lying, I show my thought process in . Highlights from there include , , , and .
  7. But if all of that STILL isn't enough. Then I ask you to read and answer my question.
    WHAT DO YOU LOSE BY NO-LYNCHING?
In post 3748, Punreader wrote:
In post 2584, Errantparabola wrote:
Active: Moody
(
Your stats change unpredictably...
) -- Once per Night Phase, you can choose between three different one shot powers.
(+ATK -SPD)
Target someone to be informed of whether or not they are mafia, and do nothing the next Night Phase.
Also worth noting is that MariaR's investigation was specifically for mafia, demonstrating the nature of the game further.
Let me give an Alternative perspective.
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Post Post #3778 (isolation #180) » Sun Aug 26, 2018 6:28 pm

Post by Punreader »

In post 3764, MariaR wrote:Mfw I clear vax and everyone forgets it
I didn't! Not once did I call him pun. I needed him dead, but I knew he was town. Or at the very least on the final day not mafia.
In post 3751, Vaxkiller wrote:The WTF are you arguing pun, 5 man scum team?
No, I was arguing to let me try to win because I had a chance, and sure enough I was right. You could have let me win with you, but you jerks didn't.
In post 3771, Vaxkiller wrote:I gave pun a chance a few (game) days ago to come "clean" I might have believed him a little more if he "full claimed" then
I explained that but had you actually TALKED TO ME rather than HAMMERED ME I would have explained it further.

The simple fact was, when you asked me to claim, I
couldn't
claim, for three reasons.
Reason number one, if I claimed on that day, both alignments had incentive to want me dead; neither alignment had incentive to want me alive. It was not until the day that I claimed that both alignments had incentive to keep me alive, and less reason to want me dead. I needed to wait as a result.

Reason number two, even if both alignments did have reason to keep me alive (when at the time, they did not)...I was aiming to not choose a victor. Claiming would force me to choose a side. When the worst was lynched and you weren't nightkilled by the pun, I no longer could work the gamestate towards this.

Reason number three, even had I claimed and chosen a side, this would then motivate the opposite side to in retribution screw me over. For instance, if I outed the worst as pun, and the town believed me, then the pun would have no incentive to shoot you. Quite the opposite, they'd have incentive to keep you alive.

When they screwed me over by keeping you alive
anyway
, this point no longer mattered.

In short, the reason I didn't claim when you offered me the chance to is BECAUSE IF I HAD CLAIMED THEN IT WOULD HAVE COST ME THE GAME and I CLAIMED THE MOMENT CLAIMING WOULDN'T COST ME THE GAME.
In post 3768, TehBrawlGuy wrote:Unfortunate for Pun - he pretty much won the game for town and y'all just straight up murdered him instead of sharing the win.
Incidentally I sent this PM to the moderator which Errant likely forgot about:
Punreader wrote:I'll have you know that if I die because my reads were too accurate/on the point, I'm counting this game as a win regardless of what my official wincon may say. :P
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Post Post #3780 (isolation #181) » Sun Aug 26, 2018 6:59 pm

Post by Punreader »

In post 52, Pine wrote:She tried so hard to discredit me, it was suuuper obvious she saw me as a paramount threat.
No, I saw you as pun.

Now granted.

I thought my shot on you was guaranteed to fail because I thought you were pun and thus would have punbuddies artificially boost your score up higher.
But I shot trying to hit pun, not trying to hit town. You being a threat never once crossed my mind. Quite the opposite, I was expecting you to live the whole game and for the punteam with you on it to endgame the town. (Thus the infection on you; I figured that if I infected pun that was guaranteed to live I'd win.)

My plan just had a couple of small flaws to it. :shifty:
In post 89, Taly wrote:If
Pun
wants to win and survive, he better start shooting scum.
I did!

Twice!

One was immune and I thought I was shooting town when shooting said pun, but that's beside the point! (And again I genuinely thought my Pine shot would be on pun.)
In post 147, Taly wrote:EVEN THE SK KNOWS WHEN TO LISTEN TO DEAD TOWN.

THE SK. IS THE MOST PRO-TOWN RN. XD
BECAUSE I WAS DEFAULTING TO TOWNSIDING THE WHOLE GAME
In post 169, Commander Shepard wrote:Damnnnn it noooooooo!!!

Punreader figures out my wine gosh darn it.
I told the town! The trick used was a good enough one to deceive me, but once I knew what it was, I could expose it!
In post 191, the worst wrote:I actually hard claimed scum to Pun at the start of the day Hahaha they pokerfaced it fucking wonderfully I love them
It did catch me off-guard but I did try my best to hide it.
In post 233, Krazy wrote:Siding with the worst was a fatal mistake for Pun, there's like no way he survives now
I didn't side with the worst, as is evident by how I was lynching a
different
pun. It's not my fault if I'm advocating for the lynch of ONE pun, but the town decides to lynch a DIFFERENT pun. (Which happened twice this game mind you!)
In post 246, Krazy wrote: ALSO YOU WERE RIGHT, I ALMOST SAID TO KILL GUAC EVEN AFTER THE HAMMER, I JUST DIDNT HIT SUBMIT BEFORE ERRANT LOCKED THE THREAD
SHOSHIN I TOLD YOU SO.
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Post Post #3793 (isolation #182) » Mon Aug 27, 2018 11:15 am

Post by Punreader »

In post 3787, Shoshin wrote:I think Pun shouldn't have killed guac. I actually would have been open to letting her win with us if she'd actually town-sided, but killing guac was clearly scum-motivated, regardless of what she claims.
Krazy says otherwise.
In post 246, Krazy wrote:ALSO YOU WERE RIGHT, I ALMOST SAID TO KILL GUAC EVEN AFTER THE HAMMER, I JUST DIDNT HIT SUBMIT BEFORE ERRANT LOCKED THE THREAD
Keep in mind I was under the impression Krazy would have lived to see daystart.

Given that I thought Krazy would live, and Krazy would have pushed guacamole as pun, I was right.

The shot was beneficial to the town. Or at least,
would
have been, had Krazy not been the nightkill.
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Post Post #3796 (isolation #183) » Mon Aug 27, 2018 4:01 pm

Post by Punreader »

In post 3794, Krazy wrote:I had a strong suspicion that the worst had hardclaimed scum to you in the PM and almost certainly lynch you right there with Sho and DV (if Vax gets killed). While you might not think you 'sided' with the worst, putting so much of your main case of the day on Sho and reading so transparently as 'SK talking to scum' that there is no way I believe you after the worst gets lynched.
Not even after I laid out explicitly that he did in fact claim to me and laid out exactly why I did the things I was doing? How the plan was to make sure I lynched the unknown pun so that I had the opportunity to lynch the worst at any time if need be?
In post 3795, Vaxkiller wrote:I wanted gauc dead, I wasn't sure about them.
I feel increasingly vindicated.
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Post Post #3800 (isolation #184) » Sat Sep 01, 2018 11:37 am

Post by Punreader »

In post 3798, Krazy wrote:@Errant, was there any objection to scum PT? I'm not like dying to see it but I am a bit curious
Both the mafia topic and my neighborhood have been released; Errant didn't announce it though so hopefully a pagetop threadbump is close enough to a notification:
Neighborhood PT
Mafia PT
And as you already know, Mod PT/Dead Thread
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Post Post #3801 (isolation #185) » Sat Sep 01, 2018 12:03 pm

Post by Punreader »

Also:
In post 206, the worst wrote:someone check Punreader's current scumreads pls iirc their reads have been semi pants-on-head so we might be ok there
In post 313, the worst wrote:Punreader might be onto their first good read of the game. fuuuu
Believe it or not, this was my strategy from the onset.

I banked on my own incompetency as a punhunter, at least as a third party. (Where I have a long record of incorrectly reading the pun but winning anyway because I didn't need to read the pun correctly to win as a 3p.)

I
knew
my reads weren't going to be good. They were all sincere, until the time I contacted you. None of what I said was in any way faked. However, in spite of having those reads sincerely, I also knew that those reads were, quite likely, to be mostly wrong. But this "reads mostly wrong, stumbling into maybe one or two right ones" state was the one I figured was my best chance at fulfilling my wincon.

I'd not lynch the entire punteam with my reads, so the game would continue on, but I'd manage to get at least one or two, so I wouldn't be endgamed. Keep in mind that with my wincon as it was, I wanted the game to stretch on for as long as humanly possible, as that would give me the most chances to kill/infect players.

So my strategy was to, genuinely, punhunt. To try, fully, to townside...but know that
in spite of trying to townside
, I'd still not win the game for them.

At least, that was the original plan.

About around D4, it began to become significantly less feasible.
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Post Post #3803 (isolation #186) » Sat Sep 01, 2018 12:13 pm

Post by Punreader »

In post 3801, Punreader wrote:Also:
In post 206, the worst wrote:someone check Punreader's current scumreads pls iirc their reads have been semi pants-on-head so we might be ok there
In post 313, the worst wrote:Punreader might be onto their first good read of the game. fuuuu
Believe it or not, this was my strategy from the onset.

I banked on my own incompetency as a punhunter, at least as a third party. (Where I have a long record of incorrectly reading the pun but winning anyway because I didn't need to read the pun correctly to win as a 3p.)

I
knew
my reads weren't going to be good. They were all sincere, until the time I contacted you. None of what I said was in any way faked. However, in spite of having those reads sincerely, I also knew that those reads were, quite likely, to be mostly wrong. But this "reads mostly wrong, stumbling into maybe one or two right ones" state was the one I figured was my best chance at fulfilling my wincon.

I'd not lynch the entire punteam with my reads, so the game would continue on, but I'd manage to get at least one or two, so I wouldn't be endgamed. Keep in mind that with my wincon as it was, I wanted the game to stretch on for as long as humanly possible, as that would give me the most chances to kill/infect players.

So my strategy was to, genuinely, punhunt. To try, fully, to townside...but know that
in spite of trying to townside
, I'd still not win the game for them.

At least, that was the original plan.

About around D4, it began to become significantly less feasible.
In short, my strategy going into this game was to bank on the natural perceptions. I
figured
people would think I was a serial killer, but it was to my advantage for them to do so. I
figured
my reads would be inaccurate, but it was to my advantage for them to be inaccurate. So I simply did the things which came most naturally, sincerely attempting to solve, knowing my solve would be flawed yet the flaws of it would further my wincon better than any faked or perfect play would.

In other words, because I knew my natural play would be flawed, and I knew that flawed play was my best shot at victory, I let loose my flawed play. I swore I sent a PM to Errant detailing this but I can't track it down.

That said, what I did track down was this:
Punreader wrote:Subject: SUPP 2017 MAFIA: DAY THREE
Punreader wrote:You know
I hope this can be appreciated for what it is.
Commander Shepherd asked me to use a consonant if not a serial killer and a vowel if a serial killer.
I did not wish to answer with either.

Y is, then, a fairly good choice given it's both.
In this sense, I claimed to my neighborhood (and by proxy, the punteam) a full two days before doing so officially. Y, as both a consonant and vowel,
was
the best answer, as I both was, yet was not, a serial killer, due to being this particular third party. I don't know why Commander Shepherd didn't pick up on this, since this is a language nuance that I'd think his technical precisions would have picked up on.
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