SUPP 2017 MAFIA: COMPLETE


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Post Post #10 (isolation #0) » Sun Jun 03, 2018 10:03 am

Post by Shoshin »

In post 9, Punreader wrote:I also believe we should claim our ratings and why the moment D2 begins, for maximum accountability.
I agree with that.
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Post Post #11 (isolation #1) » Sun Jun 03, 2018 10:04 am

Post by Shoshin »

Scum'll probably lie either way, though.
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Post Post #12 (isolation #2) » Sun Jun 03, 2018 10:05 am

Post by Shoshin »

Can we still vote on D1? Let's see:

VOTE: the worst

It might be helpful to use votes even if we're not lynching.
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Post Post #112 (isolation #3) » Mon Jun 04, 2018 2:06 pm

Post by Shoshin »

In post 71, DeasVail wrote:I liked the way that he presented his thoughts in 62 and I like the combination of his in-game townhunting approach while also engaging in non-game related conversation.
I had the opposite reaction... I struggled to follow his thinking in 62, and 64 felt more defensive than I'd have expected from a townie - plus townhunting is a lot easier to fake so it's precisely the sort of thing that lots of scum'd be self-conscious about. Why'd it feel town to you?
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Post Post #115 (isolation #4) » Mon Jun 04, 2018 2:13 pm

Post by Shoshin »

In post 88, Fire Assassin wrote:If I was handing out scum points right now I would have Espeonage and Taly taking the most.
Why Taly? Feels town to me.
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Post Post #157 (isolation #5) » Tue Jun 05, 2018 7:31 am

Post by Shoshin »

Maria, why those rankings on Action and Screen?
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Post Post #164 (isolation #6) » Tue Jun 05, 2018 8:49 am

Post by Shoshin »

In post 158, MariaR wrote:105 isn't something scum screenplay says imo it's too dumb a gambit to try but his reaction to it was pretty good imo. I dislike Dan jumping on it
Why's it "too dumb" for scum to try? What's your read on Screen's intent with 105?

I liked Dan's jump. I glimpsed over 105 without thinking much but Dan paused to give it more thought in a way that feels pretty town. I don't see scum reading as much into 105 as Dan did.
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Post Post #165 (isolation #7) » Tue Jun 05, 2018 8:52 am

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Maria, what'd you like about 155? You think it's realistic that townScreen actually thought there weren't scum in this game?
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Post Post #166 (isolation #8) » Tue Jun 05, 2018 9:06 am

Post by Shoshin »

I'm debating whether to claim my role before the end of D1. Any reasons I should/shouldn't?
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Post Post #171 (isolation #9) » Tue Jun 05, 2018 9:59 am

Post by Shoshin »

In post 167, Chara wrote:plenty of reasons to not. why would you? we don't know your role and claiming day 1 without reason is pointless.
It's provable via rankings.
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Post Post #185 (isolation #10) » Wed Jun 06, 2018 3:38 am

Post by Shoshin »

In post 182, DeasVail wrote:Espeonage
Dunnstral
Is this based on their role claims or behaviors?
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Post Post #187 (isolation #11) » Wed Jun 06, 2018 3:52 am

Post by Shoshin »

In post 186, Srceenplay wrote:
In post 185, Shoshin wrote:
In post 182, DeasVail wrote:Espeonage
Dunnstral
Is this based on their role claims or behaviors?
I’m sure it’s just TMI.
I don't know what that is.
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Post Post #189 (isolation #12) » Wed Jun 06, 2018 4:17 am

Post by Shoshin »

In post 188, Srceenplay wrote:Only one faction has TMI.
So I’m shading him and calling him scum because the only reason he has them as town is because he knows they re town. Ask him to explain it more in PT.
Why scumread him?
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Post Post #204 (isolation #13) » Thu Jun 07, 2018 1:52 am

Post by Shoshin »

In post 199, Taly wrote:Do you think Screen was being serious? lol, this question sounds much sassier than intended, btw.

The only game I've played with him is when he was town, and he made similar BS-type posts that made little sense. That's not enough to warrant a confident townlean from him, but with his recent posts bringing up scum possibilities, I think this is Screen at least appearing to be pro-town... by his standards.
I don't think Screen believes what he's saying.

Maria's response to that concerns me.
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Post Post #212 (isolation #14) » Thu Jun 07, 2018 2:53 am

Post by Shoshin »

In post 205, Taly wrote:Chara essentially agreed with her sentiments 175, are you concerned about that too?
Yes.
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Post Post #255 (isolation #15) » Fri Jun 08, 2018 6:27 am

Post by Shoshin »

In post 248, Vaxkiller wrote:I have 0 reads.
Are you looking for scum?
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Post Post #256 (isolation #16) » Fri Jun 08, 2018 6:29 am

Post by Shoshin »

In post 254, Vaxkiller wrote:As far as WHY to start with thebrawlguy, I feel he his claim/fake claim had TMI in it, and if its real, it HAS to be a scum role and I think he didnt think it through very well.
What claim? The "wang" thing? I thought that was a joke...
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Post Post #257 (isolation #17) » Fri Jun 08, 2018 6:37 am

Post by Shoshin »

In post 253, Pine wrote:I just read the first half of the game on my lunch break. I concur that Penguin looks like scum
That's boring. Any other reads?
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Post Post #301 (isolation #18) » Fri Jun 08, 2018 7:13 pm

Post by Shoshin »

Chara's probably town.
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Post Post #333 (isolation #19) » Sat Jun 09, 2018 5:34 am

Post by Shoshin »

In post 311, TehBrawlGuy wrote:I feel like it's pretty blatantly misreppy with the things I addressed in my last post, and that pings me pretty hard, but there's an amount of internal frustration/omgus there that makes biased. I'm trying to sort if this is town!dv getting overeager and viewing all my posts under his own tinted lens, or if it's scum!dv just trying to bury me
I don't think his case is misreppy... I had similar thoughts about your play re: 142 and earlier posts, but I agree that his interpreatation of the "pseudolynch" bit reeks of bias.
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Post Post #334 (isolation #20) » Sat Jun 09, 2018 5:38 am

Post by Shoshin »

In post 332, Taly wrote:
DV
, now that my tunnel on
TBG and PP
has temporarily calmed down; what was your
original
plan?
Change of plan. The time is actually now! (Plans to do something else ended up falling through)
And what about
TBG
made you change that thought process?
At least half the questions you ask give me the sense that you're not thinking very deeply about why players do things before you ask the question.
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Post Post #335 (isolation #21) » Sat Jun 09, 2018 5:45 am

Post by Shoshin »

In post 331, Srceenplay wrote:
In post 311, TehBrawlGuy wrote:someone who isn't me, give me your thoughts on 307
I’m rethinking my read on him now because of it.
That's surprising. What'd you find compelling about it?
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Post Post #337 (isolation #22) » Sat Jun 09, 2018 6:50 am

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In post 336, Taly wrote:But since you want to talk about questions, do you think the ones I posed to Screen and DV are valid?

And what are your thoughts on Screen, DV, and TBG at the moment?
The Screen questions were okay... though it's odd that you're confused about the direction of Screen's change given Screen's word choice ("rethinking").

---

The DV question was silly... it shows incredibly superficial thinking about DV's post. Like, DV had just posted that he'd have to explain his thoughts later - then he says "change of plan," explains in parenthesis what changed, and expresses his thoughts - and you wonder what the "change of plan" refers to? It's like you see the words "change of plan," ignore everything else DV wrote, and question him about it without taking into account any of the context that gives those words meaning.

---

As I said, I'm surprised by Screen's response to 307 - but I'm not saying more about this until I Screen answers our questions.

DV's probably town - even though I disagree with some what he's saying there's a very clear thought process underlying his analysis, plus I don't think he'd have pushed TBG so strongly if he were scum.

TBG has hints of town/scum. Earlier in the game I got scum vibes but the more I analyze his posts the more I see town - his suggestion that we structure our votes around roles felt scummy at first, for example, but on second thought it actually seems pretty ballsy a thing for scum to suggest plus it's the sort of thing I've seen town suggest before... I also liked TBG's response to 307 - feeling irritated that DV's mischaracterizing him is precisely how a townie would feel when accused so strongly (DV put nearly all of TBG posts in a bad light), and asking for others to weigh in instead of letting his own biases cloud his thoughts felt town.
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Post Post #469 (isolation #23) » Sun Jun 10, 2018 4:41 am

Post by Shoshin »

In post 468, Taly wrote:The more people tell me my questions are "silly" or "fake", the less I view them as pro-town.
You think your question to DV wasn't "silly"? Explain.
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Post Post #470 (isolation #24) » Sun Jun 10, 2018 4:43 am

Post by Shoshin »

In post 462, Dunnstral wrote:you can have a 4 though mariar
Why 4? Who's lower?
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Post Post #486 (isolation #25) » Sun Jun 10, 2018 6:47 am

Post by Shoshin »

In post 476, Srceenplay wrote:When I first read through it looked like some time and thought was put into that big post. So maybe I was wrong.
What were your original thoughts on the actual content of 307?
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Post Post #566 (isolation #26) » Mon Jun 11, 2018 4:03 am

Post by Shoshin »

Dunn, I'd like an answer to this:
In post 470, Shoshin wrote:
In post 462, Dunnstral wrote:you can have a 4 though mariar
Why 4? Who's lower?
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Post Post #567 (isolation #27) » Mon Jun 11, 2018 4:23 am

Post by Shoshin »

In post 552, Punreader wrote:Vaxkiller: Vaxkiller also has gone on a rollercoaster in my reads, from a six to a four before I settled on five. To some extent, he Vaxes me; I don't have a reliable way of reading his contribution. However, some of his pushes, while containing some...questionable...reasoning, look like they are genuinely going in the right direction. Not a killer-strong read, but enough that I want to keep him in the game longer.
This "rollercoaster from a six to a four to a five" feels fake.
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Post Post #568 (isolation #28) » Mon Jun 11, 2018 4:42 am

Post by Shoshin »

I also don't like how Pun's rankings -- 10, 8, 8, 8, 6, 6, 6, 5, 5, 5, 5, 4, 4, 3, 2, 2, 0 -- don't match up to the actual rankings -- 10, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 6, 5, 5, 4, 4, 3, 2, 1, 0, 0, 0 -- seems like a very unnatural way to think about the game if you're actually trying to sort reads into a meaningful rankings list.
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Post Post #573 (isolation #29) » Mon Jun 11, 2018 9:49 am

Post by Shoshin »

In post 572, Srceenplay wrote:Engage with me.
What're your top 3 scumreads/townreads at the moment?
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Post Post #574 (isolation #30) » Mon Jun 11, 2018 9:51 am

Post by Shoshin »

In post 571, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 566, Shoshin wrote:Dunn, I'd like an answer to this:
In post 470, Shoshin wrote:
In post 462, Dunnstral wrote:you can have a 4 though mariar
Why 4? Who's lower?
Nico can have a 1 for being useless, Vax can get a 0 for being my quest and being scummy anyway, other than that I don't know, and don't know if revealing a lot of #'s is even a good idea
Why is Maria a 4?
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Post Post #602 (isolation #31) » Mon Jun 11, 2018 2:43 pm

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In post 577, MariaR wrote:Also why did you ask about my names out of all of these
Dunn's one of the players who hasn't said enough for me to read yet, so when he finally took a position about someone (you), I asked him about it. He didn't answer and the other reads he mentioned were really boring so I'm pressing more with hopes of reading Dunn (plus maybe refining my read on you).
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Post Post #604 (isolation #32) » Mon Jun 11, 2018 2:48 pm

Post by Shoshin »

I'm strongly against ending the day early.
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Post Post #605 (isolation #33) » Mon Jun 11, 2018 2:56 pm

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In post 578, Srceenplay wrote:Didn’t I just give this?
I thought your reads changed based on new information, but I guess not... What's your read on Pun/Pine? Why is PP town?
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Post Post #607 (isolation #34) » Mon Jun 11, 2018 3:08 pm

Post by Shoshin »

In post 606, Srceenplay wrote:I need to get on a computer in a bit. Grab a beer and try to get some more detailed thoughts down.
Beer rots the brain, but otherwise that's a good idea. From what I gather, there's quite a few folks ranking you low so if you're town you really need to post enough thoughts for us to read you better.
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Post Post #609 (isolation #35) » Mon Jun 11, 2018 3:14 pm

Post by Shoshin »

Taly, if you have an updated reads list, I'd like to see it. Also, I'm confused by the whole "reads don't equal rankings" warning plus your bit about lying - I'm guessing you're worried about scum manipulation of rankings but that's not helpful - our #1 goal needs to be finding the scum, not preventing scum manipulation, and that means posting honestly and as much information as necessary to help us identify you (or whoever) as town (or scum). I mean, at this point it's fairly clear you're not dying tonight, but still, don't set a bad example for others who we really need to post more and to post honestly.
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Post Post #610 (isolation #36) » Mon Jun 11, 2018 3:17 pm

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In post 608, Nahdia wrote:I think, as scum, the wouldn't have pussyfooted around claiming for so long. They woulda just done it or not. If they wanted to deliberate on whether they should or not, they'd ask their scumteam (just checked; scum are confirmed to have daytalk).
Helpful observation.
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Post Post #611 (isolation #37) » Mon Jun 11, 2018 3:19 pm

Post by Shoshin »

Nahdia, other than Dunn, who would you peg as scum?
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Post Post #620 (isolation #38) » Mon Jun 11, 2018 3:36 pm

Post by Shoshin »

I disagree about apathy being a problem - if you're widely read as town and have confidence in your reads, then maybe you'll get apathetic, but so what? There's some players who aren't widely read as town (so they're going to have incentive to post more thoughts) and some players who don't have confidence about their reads (so they're going to continue actively scumhunting), and that means there's still a lot of meaningful discussion to be had. And if a few players who don't care want to zone out for a couple pages while the rest of us try to figure things out from our perspectives, I don't see why you'd be against that? At bottom, it's pro-scum to cut off discussion when there's still a lot left to analyze/discuss as it's the scum who benefit from ending things early - it certainly takes the pressure off them to keep contriving posts.
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Post Post #622 (isolation #39) » Mon Jun 11, 2018 3:38 pm

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I also disagree that "second guessing" is a problem - it's actually precisely what townies need to be doing, constantly reevaluating so that they make the best decisions possible.
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Post Post #627 (isolation #40) » Mon Jun 11, 2018 3:48 pm

Post by Shoshin »

PP, what's your read on Maria?
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Post Post #629 (isolation #41) » Mon Jun 11, 2018 3:52 pm

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In post 628, PenguinPower wrote:Town for today.
Why?
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Post Post #632 (isolation #42) » Mon Jun 11, 2018 3:57 pm

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In post 630, PenguinPower wrote:Why not?
I'm probably giving her a 0 or 1. Her reads/rankings don't make sense + she's openly lying about them so that we can't even question her about it. Or put another way, her reads are fake and she's intentionally obscuring her alignment. On top of that, she immediately jumped onto Nadhia's suggestion to end the day, which is precisely how I see scum responding to that suggestion if made by town (and, yes, I'm reading Nahdia as town here - for reasons that should be apparent to anyone reading the game).
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Post Post #634 (isolation #43) » Mon Jun 11, 2018 4:07 pm

Post by Shoshin »

In post 633, PenguinPower wrote:I'll probably bump her up a bit then. Why is Nahdia town for suggesting early end but Maria scum for agreeing with it?

You should probably stop treating this day phase as a typical mafia game.
I didn't say Nahdia's town for suggesting early end; Nahdia's done other things that make me think she's town. Maria's done things that are scummy, and her desire to end the day is consistent with reading her as scummy, especially since she wasn't the initial person to suggest ending early. I think scum want to end early but aren't typically going to say so because they're worried it might be seen as scummy - they're self-conscious about appearing to want to shut down a meaningful discussion because it's very easy for that to be taken as scummy, whereas a townie who genuinely believes we should end early would just say it, the way I think Nahdia did.

To be clear, I'm not treating this day phase like a normal game. It's actually why I think ending the day here isn't the right play. The rankings system puts more pressure than normal on scum to be read as town because our collective intelligence via rankings could plausibly lead to scum deaths in situations where we wouldn't ordinarily be able to get a consensus on a scum lynch - so this isn't a typical situation where people care only about who they're lynching - here, every ranking matters so figuring out your top suspect 0s doesn't mean it's time to stop refining reads because the difference between a 9 and 10 might actually be the difference between who dies. I think the desire to end the day here comes more from a scum mindset than a town one because scum are under a lot of pressure to avoid dying, while town have lots of incentive to refine their reads as precisely as possible. In terms of gameplay, I think scum have every reason to try taking advantage of the system by "lying" about reads and claiming it's because of "scum manipulation," whereas townies aren't interested in "lying," they're interested in finding the scum and refining reads to the best extent possible.
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Post Post #635 (isolation #44) » Mon Jun 11, 2018 4:10 pm

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In post 633, PenguinPower wrote:I'll probably bump her up a bit then.
Is this to counteract my read? Please explain why she's town. From your response, I figured you just didn't have any reason to suspect her, but this makes it seem like you affirmatively think she's town and want to protect her.
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Post Post #640 (isolation #45) » Mon Jun 11, 2018 5:06 pm

Post by Shoshin »

639's pretty scummy too.
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Post Post #671 (isolation #46) » Tue Jun 12, 2018 7:28 am

Post by Shoshin »

In post 670, Pine wrote:Ummm, so at peril of falsely giving off the classic “Hunting the SK” scumtell, it occurs to me that PR’s claim would be perfect third party. Are we confirmed not to have one?
I had a similar thought when I saw the vig claim.
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Post Post #676 (isolation #47) » Tue Jun 12, 2018 7:42 am

Post by Shoshin »

The combination of vig/bp feels like third party but it's tough to say either way. Probably worth investigating.
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Post Post #679 (isolation #48) » Tue Jun 12, 2018 7:43 am

Post by Shoshin »

Dunn, why is Maria "kind of scummy"? You know what I'm asking, stop dodging.
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Post Post #685 (isolation #49) » Tue Jun 12, 2018 9:04 am

Post by Shoshin »

I got Dunn/Maria as top suspects right now.
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Post Post #687 (isolation #50) » Tue Jun 12, 2018 9:08 am

Post by Shoshin »

TBG, update on your reads? Thoughts on Dunn/Maria?
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Post Post #688 (isolation #51) » Tue Jun 12, 2018 9:08 am

Post by Shoshin »

In post 686, PenguinPower wrote:
In post 666, Pine wrote:Still comfortable nuking both PP and PR
This.
Why do you want to die? Weird.
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Post Post #691 (isolation #52) » Tue Jun 12, 2018 9:22 am

Post by Shoshin »

In post 690, PenguinPower wrote:If it results in nuking Pun I’m happy.
You're that certain he's scum?
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Post Post #698 (isolation #53) » Tue Jun 12, 2018 10:32 am

Post by Shoshin »

In post 696, the worst wrote:There is a voice in the back of my head that kinda hates how PR claimed. the rest of their posting also feels pretty surface level and busyworky. anyone wanna talk to me about PR?
His reads list feels pretty fake, for reasons I've mentioned. He makes it seem like he's been tracking rankings very carefully (e.g. Vax moving from 6 to 4 to 5) yet his rankings don't correspond with the actual rankings so the whole thing seems pretty fake. Like, what's the point of tracking rankings to that degree of precision but using a meaningless spectrum of rankings instead of the correct one? Thoughts?
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Post Post #727 (isolation #54) » Tue Jun 12, 2018 3:42 pm

Post by Shoshin »

In post 725, Pine wrote:I started trying to score people earlier based on reads, but there's just a giant gulf in the middle because half the playerlist is lurky as fuck.
Most of the players you're not ranking aren't lurky at all...
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Post Post #942 (isolation #55) » Thu Jun 21, 2018 3:50 am

Post by Shoshin »

Here's my rankings:

10 - myself
10 - Taly
10 - Chara
9 - the worst
8 - TBG
7 - Screen
6 - DV
6 - Dunn
5 - Pun
5 - Vax
4 - Nico
4 - Nahdia
3 - Espeonage
2 - Fire
1 - Pine
0 - Lovebird
0 - Penguin
0 - MariaR
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Post Post #951 (isolation #56) » Thu Jun 21, 2018 6:01 am

Post by Shoshin »

VOTE: Maria
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Post Post #952 (isolation #57) » Thu Jun 21, 2018 6:09 am

Post by Shoshin »

I'd also lynch Penguin.
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Post Post #977 (isolation #58) » Thu Jun 21, 2018 2:29 pm

Post by Shoshin »

In post 960, Taly wrote:Why Maria and not PP or Vax?

And what do you think about the DV and Fire votes on Espe?
Maria over PP because I was slightly more suspicious of her on D1 and it sort of carried over into D2. But PP's rankings don't look like the rankings of a townie, so I'm open to lynching there (as I've indicated).

DV called Esp town yesterday, right? I'd be curious to hear about where the townread came from and why he changed his mind, but otherwise the votes on Esp are fine. I haven't liked Esp's posting today and I don't mind seeing pressure there.
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Post Post #992 (isolation #59) » Thu Jun 21, 2018 2:56 pm

Post by Shoshin »

970 is scummy for the same reasons that PP's willingness to die was scummy - it's sort of a self-destructive appeal to emotion that scum often use to manipulate townies because some townies mistakenly think that scum care too much about self-preservation to ever express a willingess to die or to suggest that their play shouldn't be townread. The reality is very different. Townies sometimes exhibit paranoia about strong townreads, but they don't categorically scumhunt the people who are townreading them in the way PP is. I find it very difficult to believe that a townie would say to themselves, "I'm not town enough to be read as town and thus the people townreading me are likely scum." I don't think PP's posting squares with a townie's perspective on the game, but if you look at PP's posting from a scum perspective, everything falls into place. Scum know that anyone who townreads them is wrong, which means those players are easier to mislynch because there's bound to be problems with their logic. The entire way PP's playing is very manipulative, it doesn't cohere with a townie's mindset, and it makes perfect sense as scum. So, yeah, I'd lynch him for 970, and I'd lynch him for his willingness to die to make sure Pun dies too.
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Post Post #994 (isolation #60) » Thu Jun 21, 2018 2:57 pm

Post by Shoshin »

In post 984, Fire Assassin wrote:I have a cop guilty on Espeonage.
Interesting. Esp was in my list of possible scum, so I'm leaning towards believing this.
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Post Post #996 (isolation #61) » Thu Jun 21, 2018 3:01 pm

Post by Shoshin »

Fire, why'd you rank Maria as a 9?
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Post Post #1000 (isolation #62) » Thu Jun 21, 2018 3:11 pm

Post by Shoshin »

I highly doubt Taly is scum, TBG.
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Post Post #1052 (isolation #63) » Thu Jun 21, 2018 11:50 pm

Post by Shoshin »

VOTE: Espeonage
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Post Post #1124 (isolation #64) » Fri Jun 22, 2018 12:43 pm

Post by Shoshin »

UNVOTE: Espeonage
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Post Post #1334 (isolation #65) » Mon Jun 25, 2018 5:17 am

Post by Shoshin »

Hey Taly, any reason to believe MariaR is town?
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Post Post #1339 (isolation #66) » Mon Jun 25, 2018 8:15 am

Post by Shoshin »

In post 1335, Taly wrote:Shoshin, can you give me your full thoughts on Fire/Maria? Do you think they're TvS?
I'm not sure. As I said on D1, I thought MariaR was pretty scummy and Fire felt sort of off to me but I felt a lot worse about MariaR. If behaviors are any indication, at least one of them is scum, maybe both. But maybe neither because of claims? I dunno. I haven't caught up yet with all the claims so I need to think through this a bit. I'm feeling a bit zoned out of the game but I want to try getting in this - can you summarize what's going on with the claims and a basic rundown of what you're thinking?
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Post Post #1341 (isolation #67) » Mon Jun 25, 2018 8:16 am

Post by Shoshin »

In post 1338, PenguinPower wrote:VOTE: MariaR
Hmm, this throws me off. PP's one of my top suspects as well.
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Post Post #1380 (isolation #68) » Mon Jun 25, 2018 5:14 pm

Post by Shoshin »

In post 1360, Chara wrote:
In post 1350, MariaR wrote:Shoshin needs to actually be productive and state reasons but they could just be lazy I'll wait a little plus I can't vote em if Chara hard nopes me
VOTE: Shoshin
I'm town, I promise. I just zoned out of the game for a bit but I'll get into this eventually, definitely before we end this day phase.
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Post Post #1442 (isolation #69) » Wed Jun 27, 2018 5:21 am

Post by Shoshin »

In post 1335, Taly wrote:
In post 1334, Shoshin wrote:Hey Taly, any reason to believe MariaR is town?
They cop claimed and resulted an innocent on
Vax
Why would this make Maria town?
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Post Post #1443 (isolation #70) » Wed Jun 27, 2018 5:21 am

Post by Shoshin »

DV, why is Esp probably town?
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Post Post #1444 (isolation #71) » Wed Jun 27, 2018 5:37 am

Post by Shoshin »

VOTE: Penguin
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Post Post #1467 (isolation #72) » Wed Jun 27, 2018 1:38 pm

Post by Shoshin »

Screen's rankings feel pretty townie to me.
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Post Post #1481 (isolation #73) » Wed Jun 27, 2018 3:08 pm

Post by Shoshin »

@Taly

It's not that a cop claim warrants doubt or questioning, it's that a cop claim shouldn't make any difference in a role madness game and that's the case twice over in a game where there's multiple cop claims.

I explained why I think Maria's scum on D1 and I've yet to see any indication otherwise. Contrary to what you're suggesting, I did something about it by ranking her a 0 and by voting her earlier today, but some of the players that I townread (e.g. you) townread Maria so I'm not ready yet to start trying to convince everyone just yet, especially when there's quite a bit of support for lynching PP and I'm happy to go in that direction (as I said earlier).

My reads haven't changed much. I still think PP/Maria are scummy, I still have no clue what to make of all the stuff involving Fire/Esp but both give me a bad vibe, enough to seriously consider lynching, and I still think you're probably town.

Screen's replacement feels pretty town, so that's cool. DV's reads mirror a lot of mine so he's probably town - there's a slight concern that he's buddying me but he's also suspecting me, so that mostly clears that concern up.

That's all the players that come to mind at the moment. Oh yeah, Pun felt like third-party yesterday based on his claim but I'm probably not lynching him unless we're at LYLO and all my other suspects are dead.

I still don't understand what the deal is with Esp. So what if Fire's result isn't legit? Esp felt scummy as fuck at the start of this day and I didn't really see much of anything to turn that around. But DV seems to have experience with Esp and probably sees something I'm missing so any insight on that would be helpful.
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Post Post #1482 (isolation #74) » Wed Jun 27, 2018 3:09 pm

Post by Shoshin »

the worst is probably town.
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Post Post #1483 (isolation #75) » Wed Jun 27, 2018 3:18 pm

Post by Shoshin »

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=76221 - me as scum
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=76303 - me as town

Gustavo was in both games. He should know better than to vote me here. The way he's misrepresenting what I'm saying shows a pretty strong desire to characterize my play in the worst possible light. No way he's town here.
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Post Post #1484 (isolation #76) » Wed Jun 27, 2018 3:19 pm

Post by Shoshin »

Fuck, posted in the wrong game. Sorry.
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Post Post #1487 (isolation #77) » Wed Jun 27, 2018 3:27 pm

Post by Shoshin »

In post 1485, Taly wrote:Shoshin, is there any read you have where there's certainty? You keep using words like "probably", "still", "mostly" even when there's claims present.
Absolute certainty? No. I'm not going to fake certainty just to appease you guys. I'm fairly confident on PP/Maria, as well as fairly confident on the townreads I've just stated, but it also wouldn't surprise me if I'm wrong. If you or someone could actually explain what makes my reads wrong, I'd be very open to changing them. Pointing me at claims means nothing to me. As I've already said, claims, roles, investigative results, all of that shit is unreliable in a role madness game. Behaviors is the only thing that's going to convince me of alignments.
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Post Post #1488 (isolation #78) » Wed Jun 27, 2018 3:29 pm

Post by Shoshin »

In post 1486, MariaR wrote:
In post 1483, Shoshin wrote:viewtopic.php?f=2&t=76221 - me as scum
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=76303 - me as town

Gustavo was in both games. He should know better than to vote me here. The way he's misrepresenting what I'm saying shows a pretty strong desire to characterize my play in the worst possible light. No way he's town here.
The ironic part is the tone in this post is dif then every other post sho has said js.
I'm not sure what the rules are talking about other games but I'll just say this - how much certainty I have in THIS game is the result of what has happened in THIS game, not what has happened in any other game. Sometimes I'm more certain than others.
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Post Post #1489 (isolation #79) » Wed Jun 27, 2018 3:30 pm

Post by Shoshin »

I agree that Nahdia's ranking is shit and there's a distinct possibility that she's scum. But why not lynch PP, Taly?
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Post Post #1491 (isolation #80) » Wed Jun 27, 2018 3:40 pm

Post by Shoshin »

In post 1490, PenguinPower wrote:
In post 1487, Shoshin wrote:Behaviors is the only thing that's going to convince me of alignments.
Absent that not working well for you, as town you have at least (from what I can see) pushed your reads pretty hard with lots of reasoning (good or bad) behind it. You aren't doing that here.
That's a really simplistic way to look at my play. How much certainty I have depends on the game and the way it's going.
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Post Post #1494 (isolation #81) » Wed Jun 27, 2018 3:51 pm

Post by Shoshin »

I dunno about Nahdia. Maybe. The way she defended PP on D1 strongly indicates that scum Nahdia = scum PP.
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Post Post #1495 (isolation #82) » Wed Jun 27, 2018 3:52 pm

Post by Shoshin »

In post 1492, Taly wrote:His lynch is too easy, and I don't trust that.
Is his lynch really that easy? Who suspects him enough to vote?
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Post Post #1498 (isolation #83) » Wed Jun 27, 2018 4:04 pm

Post by Shoshin »

In post 1496, PenguinPower wrote:
In post 1494, Shoshin wrote:I dunno about Nahdia. Maybe. The way she defended PP on D1 strongly indicates that scum Nahdia = scum PP.
Then why flip me first instead of Nahdia?
Because you're scummier than Nahdia, and your association to Nahdia has nothing to do with that.
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Post Post #1499 (isolation #84) » Wed Jun 27, 2018 4:05 pm

Post by Shoshin »

In post 1497, PenguinPower wrote:
In post 1495, Shoshin wrote:Is his lynch really that easy? Who suspects him enough to vote?
You should probably catch up on the game...
I've caught up. There's plenty of discussion about other lynches, so I don't think you're an "easy" lynch by any means. There's been resistance to it, even if that resistance hasn't always been directly defensive of you.
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Post Post #1501 (isolation #85) » Wed Jun 27, 2018 4:14 pm

Post by Shoshin »

Who wants to lynch PP?
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Post Post #1502 (isolation #86) » Wed Jun 27, 2018 4:14 pm

Post by Shoshin »

I'd actually like to see how many people support this "easy" lynch.
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Post Post #1504 (isolation #87) » Wed Jun 27, 2018 4:19 pm

Post by Shoshin »

the worst, you don't want to lynch PP?
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Post Post #1506 (isolation #88) » Wed Jun 27, 2018 4:25 pm

Post by Shoshin »

PP, if you don't want to die, convince me that someone else is scummier than you.
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Post Post #1509 (isolation #89) » Wed Jun 27, 2018 4:31 pm

Post by Shoshin »

Why not?
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Post Post #1511 (isolation #90) » Wed Jun 27, 2018 4:35 pm

Post by Shoshin »

lol what age can you drink in Australia?
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Post Post #1535 (isolation #91) » Thu Jun 28, 2018 4:17 am

Post by Shoshin »

Hey DV, I'm feeling disengaged too but I'm here now and trying to figure this out so please try getting into this. Forget all the roles/claims/results for a moment and talk to me about the behaviors here - what are your thoughts on Esp? Fire? Maria?
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Post Post #1536 (isolation #92) » Thu Jun 28, 2018 4:18 am

Post by Shoshin »

Chara, what're your reads at this point?
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Post Post #1537 (isolation #93) » Thu Jun 28, 2018 4:18 am

Post by Shoshin »

I'm sorry if you've said it before recently but this game is hard enough as it is and getting updates from players is very helpful.
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Post Post #1548 (isolation #94) » Thu Jun 28, 2018 10:34 am

Post by Shoshin »

Alright, fuck it. I'll make some cases on my scumreads. Because apparently that's what you guys need to see that I'm town.
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Post Post #1549 (isolation #95) » Thu Jun 28, 2018 10:57 am

Post by Shoshin »

I think Penguin's scum and this is why:

1) His posting on D1 is really shitty. He kinda lurks and complains about how he can't get reads and how his role is negative utility. Nothing town in his posting and he admits it when pushed for this very reason.

2) He votes Taly after it's already pretty obvious that Taly's town and that Taly is sort of leading the town. There's a pretty clear scum agenda to the push on Taly - stop Taly from unifying the town - but why push Taly if he's town? It's just a very bizarre push, one that I can't make sense of. And he keeps pushing Taly throughout the game (see below).

3) His degree of certainty that Pun was scum on D1 simply didn't square with the game. Like, PP kept saying that he had no problems dying or getting ranked 0 as long as we killed Pun too because that's how certain he was that Pun was scum. It's absurd because no townie would have been that confident about Pun. As a secondary matter, PP's self-destructive appeal is the sort of thing that almost always comes from scum, almost always. Townies just don't do that sort of thing, whereas scum often do it as a way to manipulate townies into thinking the player doesn't care about self-preservation even though that's actually their #1 priority.

4) PP's rankings are shit and his entire approach to scumhunting doesn't make any sense from a town perspective. He categorically scumhunts the people who are townreading him in 970 - "I'm not town enough to be read as town so the scum are probably among the people townreading me" - and that just doesn't make any sense from a town perspective. It's actually a very scum-aligned thought process because the scum would KNOW that anyone who townreads them is wrong. Also, what happened to the scumread on Pun? He's dropped any semblance of a push on Pun.

5) He continues casting subtle shade at Taly by questioning why Taly isn't voting him. Weird question from a town perspective. Townies are usually suspicious of people who vote them, not suspicious of people who don't. The question implies yet again that he thinks people shouldn't be townreading him, which is a thought process that makes more sense from a scum perspective who knows players shouldn't be townreading him.

6) He says I'm town all game until I stopped posting. Then he says I'm scum and votes me. What changed? I became a viable mislynch. The real problem with PP's vote is that he tries to justify it by reference to my town meta in 1352, when actually the only reason to vote me is just that I stopped posting because I was disengaged (not AI for me - I've been prodded in my town games on THIS site, including a game that PP read, yet haven't been prodded yet in this one).

The entire way PP's playing is very manipulative, it doesn't cohere with a townie's mindset, and his votes are opportunistic, determined by the sway of collective opinion. There's nothing townie anywhere to be found in his posting. Yes, it's an easy lynch, because he's probably scum.
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Post Post #1551 (isolation #96) » Thu Jun 28, 2018 11:25 am

Post by Shoshin »

In post 264, PenguinPower wrote:I mean, I get why people scum read me given my scum meta, but I hate D1 to being with and there being no voting mechanism is fairly offputting.
In post 1550, Chara wrote:
In post 1548, Shoshin wrote:Alright, fuck it. I'll make some cases on my scumreads. Because apparently that's what you guys need to see that I'm town.
implying that this is a strange thing...? :>
Depends on the group of players. It's not my preferred way of showing that I'm town.
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Post Post #1563 (isolation #97) » Thu Jun 28, 2018 12:24 pm

Post by Shoshin »

In post 1552, Chara wrote:what's your preferred way?
In an ideal world, I'd cast a few votes to indicate my top suspect and maybe ask a few questions to indicate the direction of my scumhunting process - and it'd be apparent I was town. But when I try that it usually leads to lots of suspicion so I have to adapt to the players I'm with. I thought my questions were pretty good ones here but apparently that's not enough, so I suppose I'll try making cases.
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Post Post #1564 (isolation #98) » Thu Jun 28, 2018 12:26 pm

Post by Shoshin »

In post 1558, Chara wrote:i actually think Penguin knows he hasn't been playing in a way to be townread, and was in turn suspicious of players townreading him. or knows that he hasn't been towny and was going for towncred by saying that. regardless, i don't think it's incorrect to hunt that way.
Why would you think this? Why is it more likely that he's a townie intentionally playing scummy rather than scum who is actually scummy?
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Post Post #1565 (isolation #99) » Thu Jun 28, 2018 12:28 pm

Post by Shoshin »

In post 1562, Dunnstral wrote:I don't understand why so many people suspect deas?
He's disengaged, sort of like me, is my guess.
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Post Post #1580 (isolation #100) » Thu Jun 28, 2018 3:47 pm

Post by Shoshin »

In post 1577, PenguinPower wrote:When did I say you were town? Much less "all game."
You said I was town in . Why'd that change?
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Post Post #1586 (isolation #101) » Thu Jun 28, 2018 3:59 pm

Post by Shoshin »

In post 1568, ManWithNoName wrote:Why are you so concerned with appearing town rather than just playing to a town wincon in order to just help town win?

Super Pro Tip, do town things, and town reads will follow, this much concern about being townread by people troubles me. It troubles me quite a bit.
I understand why you'd be concerned about this but you also need to understand where I'm coming from. Even the best townies get mislynched sometimes; being townread isn't always as simple as doing pro-town things, sometimes it's a matter of presenting your thought process in a way that allows others to understand how it comes from a town perspective.

I'm concerned about appearing town because I've been disengaged from the game to the point where there's an understandable amount of paranoia about my alignment, and when I started getting back into the game doing pro-town things, people still called me scum because I didn't have enough certainty and they didn't like my question-based approach.

My sense is that people are getting caught up in the way I'm presenting my thoughts instead of actually looking at what I'm saying, so I'm presenting basically the exact same information except in the form of cases. Like, I had said most of the stuff in my PP case before. There's not really much new stuff there. I just put the information together in a different way so that players who can't read between the lines see what I'm saying and are better able to understand my thought process.
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Post Post #1587 (isolation #102) » Thu Jun 28, 2018 4:02 pm

Post by Shoshin »

In post 1581, Taly wrote:Shoshin, what do you think of Nahdia?
I don't remember anything she's done today. My thoughts on D1 were initially townie - she made some points about town PP that made sense to me, and I liked something else about her that I can't remember now - but when I reread to finalize my rankings I started to doubt whether she was town. I felt pretty strongly that PP was scum so I didn't like her defense anymore, and the rest of her posting wasn't very good, she wanted to end the day without much interest in scumhunting.

I think if you suspect Nahdia you should take a closer look at Maria, because Maria's basically a much scummier version of Nahdia as far as I can tell. I haven't made a case on Maria yet but when I do I'll make a point of comparing to Nahdia so you can see the parallels that I'm thinking about.
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Post Post #1588 (isolation #103) » Thu Jun 28, 2018 4:04 pm

Post by Shoshin »

In post 1581, Taly wrote:Also, I've never really seen a scum-case that is strongly in the idea of someone else being town.

Shoshin, what do you think of TBG in referencing D1, where he kept saying that Me/PP was TvS and didn't give clarity on who?
I don't know what you mean by either of these statements/quesitons. Can you clarify?
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Post Post #1589 (isolation #104) » Thu Jun 28, 2018 4:04 pm

Post by Shoshin »

In post 1583, PenguinPower wrote:
In post 1580, Shoshin wrote:
In post 1577, PenguinPower wrote:When did I say you were town? Much less "all game."
You said I was town in . Why'd that change?
Ah. We were amidst the guilty discussion and you made a wall post...and I was a bit drunk at the time.

You haven't come close to continuing that since.
That wall post said the exact same thing that my case said.

So, first time you read it, you thought it was town, but now you're reading the same exact analysis and think it's scummy?
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Post Post #1592 (isolation #105) » Thu Jun 28, 2018 4:09 pm

Post by Shoshin »

In post 1590, PenguinPower wrote:I don't usually care for people who town read me when I shouldn't be.
Can you link representative games of your town play that show this?
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Post Post #1593 (isolation #106) » Thu Jun 28, 2018 4:10 pm

Post by Shoshin »

Taly, who is your ideal lynch for today?
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Post Post #1595 (isolation #107) » Thu Jun 28, 2018 4:13 pm

Post by Shoshin »

Taly, if you're here in real time, I'd like to have a discussion about things and maybe start developing a consensus about who to lynch and who we townread. I think a conversation about Maria would be helpful because I'm scumreading her and you're townreading. And who are we overlooking? I need someone to solve this with, this isn't the kind of game that I feel any motivation or capability to try solving unless I'm actively here discussing with someone, so I'd really appreciate your time and input.
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Post Post #1596 (isolation #108) » Thu Jun 28, 2018 4:15 pm

Post by Shoshin »

In post 1594, PenguinPower wrote:
In post 1592, Shoshin wrote:
In post 1590, PenguinPower wrote:I don't usually care for people who town read me when I shouldn't be.
Can you link representative games of your town play that show this?
You can easily find them if you actually care.
I don't have the time to read every game you've ever been in to find a place where you scumhunt by questioning the people who townread you. If you do it in every game, then I'll look at the first one I find. But I'm assuming you don't do that in every game you're town, so it'd be a lot more helpful if you can find me the specific games where you say you do this.
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Post Post #1597 (isolation #109) » Thu Jun 28, 2018 4:19 pm

Post by Shoshin »

Alright, picked a random town Penguin game to see if he scumhunts by looking at the players who townread him.

viewtopic.php?f=83&t=75471

I skimmed his iso and he did no such thing. I'm assuming he just doesn't actually do that unless he pulls up some games proving otherwise. So he's scum here, and he's scum for exactly the reasons I've said.
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Post Post #1599 (isolation #110) » Thu Jun 28, 2018 4:28 pm

Post by Shoshin »

Yeah, Penguin, link some games. I don't have time to go looking for representative games. You say you do this as town, prove it.
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Post Post #1601 (isolation #111) » Thu Jun 28, 2018 4:37 pm

Post by Shoshin »

Okay, cool. I'm asking PP to help me sort him and he's refusing. I'll add that to the list of scummy things PP has done.
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Post Post #1645 (isolation #112) » Fri Jun 29, 2018 2:31 am

Post by Shoshin »

In post 1625, Chara wrote:is Shoshin usually this simplistic? what benefit does scum PP gain from refusing to disprove something he can very easily disprove?
Why'd you read PP's refusal to mean he could easily disprove it but doesn't want to? Why isn't it something that he's refusing because he can't?
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Post Post #1646 (isolation #113) » Fri Jun 29, 2018 2:31 am

Post by Shoshin »

UNVOTE: Penguin
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Post Post #1647 (isolation #114) » Fri Jun 29, 2018 2:33 am

Post by Shoshin »

PP, why'd you read Maria as town on D1? I asked you that question and you never answered.
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Post Post #1648 (isolation #115) » Fri Jun 29, 2018 2:34 am

Post by Shoshin »

In post 1629, Commander Shepard wrote:And lolz at me being scum. I would just quickhammer if I was. Wagon on me and another at L-1. Just be glad I am not the user Not_Mafia.
I doubt you'd quickhammer as scum even if you were at L-1. You might hammer eventually but not before you had a chance to fake some town-tells.
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Post Post #1656 (isolation #116) » Fri Jun 29, 2018 2:57 am

Post by Shoshin »

In post 1649, Commander Shepard wrote:VOTE: Shoshin

And pray tell why did you unvote PP?

Even in the worst case scenario where I read and hammer before you got to the thread in your opinion I would be hammering scum.

And don’t say the “quickhammer” possibility because your unvote came posts before.
I unvoted because the game he linked shows him questioning townreads so I want to reevaluate without him getting lynched.

If you're scum, your goals entering the thread wouldn't have been hammering PP (that assumes PP is town), they would have been faking town-tells and securing a mislynch.

The first thing you did is try getting Chara to townread you through your "I didn't quickhammer" logic. Except we both know that you're better than that as scum and you wouldn't have hammered PP regardless of his alignment.

Your reasoning assumes PP is town. If you're both scum, you don't hammer in that situation because it doesn't matter if he's lynched or you're lynched, what matters is trying to change town's thinking towards mislynching.

And now you're voting town. Is there any reason I shouldn't scumread you for this?
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Post Post #1658 (isolation #117) » Fri Jun 29, 2018 3:01 am

Post by Shoshin »

In post 1650, Chara wrote:
In post 1645, Shoshin wrote:
In post 1625, Chara wrote:is Shoshin usually this simplistic? what benefit does scum PP gain from refusing to disprove something he can very easily disprove?
Why'd you read PP's refusal to mean he could easily disprove it but doesn't want to? Why isn't it something that he's refusing because he can't?
because when players say "i've done this as town before" it's true 99% of the time. and his attitude this game made his mindset easy to figure.
That hasn't been the case in my experience but okay let's assume it's true. Why wouldn't scum just claim that everything they're doing is how they play as town? And before you know it, that 99% stat quickly disappears.
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Post Post #1660 (isolation #118) » Fri Jun 29, 2018 3:09 am

Post by Shoshin »

Sheperd, you think Chara's town?
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Post Post #1662 (isolation #119) » Fri Jun 29, 2018 3:10 am

Post by Shoshin »

Sheperd, you told me your main so that's how I know how you play.
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Post Post #1664 (isolation #120) » Fri Jun 29, 2018 3:15 am

Post by Shoshin »

I didn't ignore it but I also didn't see anything that needed response to. Is there something you're asking about?
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Post Post #1665 (isolation #121) » Fri Jun 29, 2018 3:16 am

Post by Shoshin »

Why is Chara town?
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Post Post #1668 (isolation #122) » Fri Jun 29, 2018 3:21 am

Post by Shoshin »

I'm reevaluating PP in light of new information. The case wasn't inherently bad or good, it was a product of the information I had at the time.

I didn't focus exclusively on PP. I have other reads.
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Post Post #1669 (isolation #123) » Fri Jun 29, 2018 3:22 am

Post by Shoshin »

In post 1667, Commander Shepard wrote:
In post 1665, Shoshin wrote:Why is Chara town?
Because it is obviously town. Like they have town stamped in every post they’ve replied to me so far. It just like is town. I’d be skeptical of anyone thinking it’s scum.
Can you explain it to me? It's fine if you think it's "obvious" but that doesn't mean it's beyond explanation.
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Post Post #1672 (isolation #124) » Fri Jun 29, 2018 3:29 am

Post by Shoshin »

Yes, I'm reevaluating.

Off the top of my head, Maria was my top suspect on D1 and the first person I voted on D2. I've given reasons why I suspect her but haven't cased her yet. On D1, I didn't like things about Fire and I don't like his posting much today but I also don't like Esp's posting. I've had Taly as strong town throughout the game. I've been reading the worst as town. I read Screen as town and his replacement as town. I read Chara as town on D1 but I'm reevaluating based on the way she's reading Penguin. I'm paranoid about DV but also understanding of his disengagement.
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Post Post #1673 (isolation #125) » Fri Jun 29, 2018 3:30 am

Post by Shoshin »

Sheperd, I'm actually trying to understand your thought process here as well as to read Chara better. If it's so "obvious" it shouldn't be hard to say what's town about it.
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Post Post #1675 (isolation #126) » Fri Jun 29, 2018 3:35 am

Post by Shoshin »

VOTE: Sheperd
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Post Post #1683 (isolation #127) » Fri Jun 29, 2018 3:55 am

Post by Shoshin »

Taly, can you explain how Esp/Vax/Dunn are clear via roles?
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Post Post #1685 (isolation #128) » Fri Jun 29, 2018 4:02 am

Post by Shoshin »

Why do you townread Maria?
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Post Post #1687 (isolation #129) » Fri Jun 29, 2018 4:10 am

Post by Shoshin »

Her reads on D1 felt fake. Her posts feel more defensive than scumhunting oriented. On D1, she said she was openly lying about reads/rankings in a way that makes me think she's trying to avoid commiting to any positions, a pretty typical scum pattern. She quickly jumped onto Nahdia's reasoning to end the day without wanting to scumhunt. And the way she voted Fire today after he claimed didn't square with the way she was thinking on D1 about the game's roles/setup (i.e. on D1 she's going on about how the scum might have roles to screw with our rankings, which is a really speculative position, but then when Fire claims, she's suddenly can't speculate about multiple cops?), so to me it was more of scum reacting the way they prepared to react to another cop claim rather than a townie who gave Fire's claim some deeper thought. And I haven't seen anything townie in her posts.
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Post Post #1688 (isolation #130) » Fri Jun 29, 2018 4:11 am

Post by Shoshin »

So why do you townread her?
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Post Post #1689 (isolation #131) » Fri Jun 29, 2018 4:16 am

Post by Shoshin »

In post 423, MariaR wrote:Claim doesn't =ali
look fhr the way they claimed that's what's important not the claim itself.
Also I hope I'm not the only one openly lying about rankings here
Maria on D1. Claims aren't AI... and she's speculating about crazy setup stuff with vote swappers and openly lying about it...
In post 1177, MariaR wrote:VOTE: fire
My invest was a cop as well I don't think we have 2 cops
But then Fire claims and he's scum because there can't be two cops? I thought claims weren't AI... I thought Maria was open to crazy setup stuff... but nah, guess not.

It doesn't square.
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Post Post #1691 (isolation #132) » Fri Jun 29, 2018 4:51 am

Post by Shoshin »

In post 1690, Taly wrote:
1)
Because why would
Maria
-scum fakeclaim an innocent on
Vax
of all people, one of the most suspected people of the game?
2)
Because why would
Maria
-scum merge with
Chara
of all people, one of the most townread people of the game?
3)
Because why would
Maria
-scum claim cop at all, or challenge at a cop claim like
Fire's
?
4)
Because why would
Maria
-scum openly be OK with lying about reads D1 since it'd mean her scumself wouldn't have accurate thread info. on town's mindset?
5)
Because why would
Maria
-scum counter a
PP
-town wagon, or a
PP
-scum wagon with her own scumread-
Nahdia
wagon??
There's lots of plausible scum narratives to answer those questions.

1) If Vax is town, Maria could be buddying. If Vax is scum, Maria could be protecting a teammate.
2) I don't really understand the merge thing or what happened there... if Maria chose to merge with Chara, she could be buddying Chara... and besides, the question you should ask is, how is Maria both a cop and a merger?
3) To push a mislynch on Fire. To create chaos. To make you think she's town based on role. There's plenty of games where scum claim or counterclaim cop.
4) Scum openly lie about reads on D1 so that they're immune from suspicion. I don't understand what you mean by "accurate thread info" when scum's goal isn't to help town, it's to hurt town. It hurts town when you openly lie about reads so that nobody can form accurate reads about you.
5) If both PP and Nahdia are town, she could be setting up a mislynch on Nahdia based on PP's flip. If PP's scum and Nahdia's town, she could be redirecting towards a mislynch while protecting her teammate. If PP's town and Nahdia's scum, she could be looking for town credit while also believing that PP's going to get lynched, not Nahdia.

I've seen scum do everything that Maria's doing. None of it is very indicative of alignment either way.
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Post Post #1692 (isolation #133) » Fri Jun 29, 2018 4:57 am

Post by Shoshin »

Taly, answer the flipside of your question: Why would Maria-town be okay with lying about reads on D1 since it'd mean her townself wouldn't have accurate thread info. on town's mindset? Or to put it another way, who do you think cares more about accurate thread info, town or scum?
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Post Post #1703 (isolation #134) » Fri Jun 29, 2018 7:16 am

Post by Shoshin »

Hey Taly, I've been trying to talk with you for a few pages now, are you around?
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Post Post #1711 (isolation #135) » Fri Jun 29, 2018 7:52 am

Post by Shoshin »

In post 1706, Taly wrote:I just don't see a long-term benefit to scum claiming cop?
I've seen scum claim cop on D2 and win the game, surviving until endgame. The benefits are pretty clear: you get to control who gets lynched, and you get some townreads without much deeper questioning.
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Post Post #1717 (isolation #136) » Fri Jun 29, 2018 8:04 am

Post by Shoshin »

You thought a guilty on Esp wasn't plausible?
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Post Post #1725 (isolation #137) » Fri Jun 29, 2018 8:15 am

Post by Shoshin »

Maria, what I mean is you had a lot of posts that didn't have any scumhunting purpose, like, "give me a 10," "nice to see I'm townread," "this is why I haven't been posting," "I'm town," type of posts.
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Post Post #1728 (isolation #138) » Fri Jun 29, 2018 8:17 am

Post by Shoshin »

In post 1721, MariaR wrote:Check my rankings esp was one of my top townreads and his reaction felt legit to me. I felt it was more likely fire was bsing in some way IE gambit or just fakeclaiming then having a srs guilty on one of my top townreads yes. If it was on someone I was scumreading I wouldn't have had an issue.
Okay... why would that make Fire's claim fake rather than the result flawed?
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Post Post #1729 (isolation #139) » Fri Jun 29, 2018 8:18 am

Post by Shoshin »

Sheperd, why do you suspect me again?
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Post Post #1732 (isolation #140) » Fri Jun 29, 2018 8:21 am

Post by Shoshin »

Cops don't usually say their results might be wrong when they claim, especially when they've been scumreading the person they got a guilty on.
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Post Post #1738 (isolation #141) » Fri Jun 29, 2018 8:28 am

Post by Shoshin »

I don't really think that's true, Maria. I've never seen a cop qualify their result when its a guilty on a scumread. I'm also having trouble believing that you'd think Fire was scum just because he didn't qualify his result by saying it could be wrong, as if any result ever needs that qualification.
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Post Post #1739 (isolation #142) » Fri Jun 29, 2018 8:31 am

Post by Shoshin »

In post 1734, Commander Shepard wrote:Because of your PP unvote. It was horrible. You spent a majority of the thread talking about PP and then unvote him and haven't actually seemed to do any reevaluating of the slot. A majority of your reasons PP is scum also don't link to PP's meta.
I don't understand how you read my unvote as a scum-tell. If I were town in that situation, you think I'd have ignored the new information and kept pushing PP?

What do you mean my reasons don't linke to PP's meta? And I gave my reasons before even looking at any of his games, so I'm not sure what that has to do with my alignment.
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Post Post #1748 (isolation #143) » Fri Jun 29, 2018 8:36 am

Post by Shoshin »

Hmm, okay. That's a fair point about Fire's claim.
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Post Post #1761 (isolation #144) » Fri Jun 29, 2018 8:54 am

Post by Shoshin »

Maria, why'd you read Esp as town?
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Post Post #1764 (isolation #145) » Fri Jun 29, 2018 9:01 am

Post by Shoshin »

In post 608, Nahdia wrote:
In post 594, Taly wrote:
Nahdia,
welcome!

I read through your ISO and nodded a lot; but why is
PP's
claim towny?[/size]
I think, as scum, the wouldn't have pussyfooted around claiming for so long. They woulda just done it or not. If they wanted to deliberate on whether they should or not, they'd ask their scumteam (just checked; scum are confirmed to have daytalk).
Just noticed something about this. Nahdia townreads PP before checking whether scum have daytalk, which makes me think she decided to townread PP first and then came up with reasoning afterwards.
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Post Post #1765 (isolation #146) » Fri Jun 29, 2018 9:02 am

Post by Shoshin »

I also don't believe Sheperd would vote me in this game for the reasons he's given.
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Post Post #1770 (isolation #147) » Fri Jun 29, 2018 9:08 am

Post by Shoshin »

lol I'm not attacking your points because they don't rise to the level of merit required of them to be attacked.
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Post Post #1773 (isolation #148) » Fri Jun 29, 2018 9:11 am

Post by Shoshin »

DV, what're your thoughts on Sheperd?
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Post Post #1778 (isolation #149) » Fri Jun 29, 2018 9:21 am

Post by Shoshin »

Sheperd, I think you're mischaracterizing why I unvoted. I didn't unvote because I suddenly believe PP is town. I unvoted because I didn't want him lynched while I reevaluate. But I never said I finished reevaluating. I still plan on reading that game to understand the context as well as reading other games.

The other reasons I gave for scumreading PP weren't the strongest points of my case. Taken alone, they're not enough to lynch him; it's the combination of points that increased probability enough for me to feel comfortable with his lynch.

The reason I suspect you is because you're subtly mischaracterizing what I'm saying in a way that helps you justify voting me and I don't think you'd mischaracterize me like that as town. If you were town, I'd have expected you to enter the game hoping I was town and looking for reasons to townread me, not scumread me. But what I'm seeing is the opposite. It seems like you already know I'm town, you know there's lots of paranoia about me floating around, and so I'm an easy mislynch.

Where am I going wrong there? Why should I townread you?[/quote]
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Post Post #1780 (isolation #150) » Fri Jun 29, 2018 9:24 am

Post by Shoshin »

In post 1772, ManWithNoName wrote:Commander, you are also OntheMark, right?
OTM is an alt too lol
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Post Post #1783 (isolation #151) » Fri Jun 29, 2018 9:28 am

Post by Shoshin »

MWNN, what do you think of the way Sheperd's mischaracterizing my unvote?
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Post Post #1785 (isolation #152) » Fri Jun 29, 2018 9:39 am

Post by Shoshin »

That's semantics, MWNN. Look at how Sheperd interprets this post:
In post 1656, Shoshin wrote:I unvoted because the game he linked shows him questioning townreads so I want to reevaluate without him getting lynched.
He subtly misinterprets my meaning in this post by emphasizing the "reevaluate" part of the post while ignoring the parts where I say I haven't reevaluated yet and want to do so without PP getting lynched.

Then he "scumreads" me under the logic that I unvoted because of a "fake reevaluation." And Sheperd himself notes that if he were scum he could have come into the game and hammered PP, so my reason for unvoting should have been very sensible to Sheperd because he himself was aware of the potential for scum to hammer PP. But instead he scumreads me for it?

I know you don't know my history with Sheperd but I'll say this much - there's enough history that he wouldn't come into the game looking to scumread me if he were town, he's be looking to townread me. But instead it seems like he's pre-inclined to scumread me more than townread me and that's very concerning.
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Post Post #1787 (isolation #153) » Fri Jun 29, 2018 9:46 am

Post by Shoshin »

In post 1666, Commander Shepard wrote:So why would one post destroy your entire scumread on PP? And if it did why focus exclusively on someone to the exclusion of all others if your case is that bad?
Look at these questions, MWNN. How are these not evidence that Sheperd is pre-inclined to read me as scum?
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Post Post #1800 (isolation #154) » Fri Jun 29, 2018 11:10 am

Post by Shoshin »

In post 1797, Chara wrote:and i'm not looking for the answer you already gave of having a history, i'm asking why a town Shepard would be "looking for" reasons to townread you as opposed to just looking at your play and reacting accordingly to it.
My sense from interacting with him is that he likes my play as town and would like working with me as town.
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Post Post #1803 (isolation #155) » Fri Jun 29, 2018 11:21 am

Post by Shoshin »

In post 1789, ManWithNoName wrote:
In post 1787, Shoshin wrote:
In post 1666, Commander Shepard wrote:So why would one post destroy your entire scumread on PP? And if it did why focus exclusively on someone to the exclusion of all others if your case is that bad?
Look at these questions, MWNN. How are these not evidence that Sheperd is pre-inclined to read me as scum?
I just think there's a big difference between misrepresenting something and being mistaken. I don't think there is enough in that one post to make the leap to misrepresentation and lynch him based on it.
I understand what you're saying but my point is that he's specifically emphasizing certain things I've said while ignoring others, which to me is more than just a mistake or misinterpretation, it's manipulative. Sheperd's a pretty bright guy, after all. I find it hard to believe that he ignores the reason I unvoted - to keep PP from being lynched while I reevaluate - to push the idea that I suddenly townread PP. I also find it hard to believe that he'd scumread me for that turn because if anything it's a town-tell - why would scum me stop voting PP there when I could easily let that lynch happen?
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Post Post #1806 (isolation #156) » Fri Jun 29, 2018 11:27 am

Post by Shoshin »

DV, can you say a bit about why you want to lynch PP over Sheperd?
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Post Post #1809 (isolation #157) » Fri Jun 29, 2018 12:15 pm

Post by Shoshin »

I'd love to know what the town-tell is. He's actually doing something that is sort of townie for him to do, but he's doing it in a way that makes me think it's an intentional attempt to manipulate his meta. I'd be curious to see if it's the same thing you're thinking.
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Post Post #1817 (isolation #158) » Fri Jun 29, 2018 3:18 pm

Post by Shoshin »

I don't understand how I'm getting scumread here, just crazy to me.
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Post Post #1818 (isolation #159) » Fri Jun 29, 2018 3:26 pm

Post by Shoshin »

I think your gut is broken, the worst.
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Post Post #1824 (isolation #160) » Sat Jun 30, 2018 2:09 am

Post by Shoshin »

In post 1823, the worst wrote:
In post 1818, Shoshin wrote:I think your gut is broken, the worst.
I'm actual struggling here. There's a number of people I have as like....could see them as scum but I just think they're town. I'm cold on scum!PP again.

If it comes to a 1v1 between you and CShep my initial read had his slot down as town, and I actually think his case on you is reasonable. I'm not sure what you mean by saying that you don't think his reasons are adequate coming from him to vote you but if he's caught up and found you scummy that's kinda... how scumreads work.... :/

By way of comparison I had srceen in the bottom half of my list but didn't have a strong read on him. So it's very easy to take a chance on MWNN.


Is there something here you feel like I should be seeing?
You think his case on me is reasonable? What's the case?
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Post Post #1828 (isolation #161) » Sun Jul 01, 2018 3:26 am

Post by Shoshin »

I never said PP is town.
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Post Post #1832 (isolation #162) » Sun Jul 01, 2018 3:35 am

Post by Shoshin »

In post 1830, Commander Shepard wrote:You’ve never seen me as town.
Yeah I have. I've read your games and I've played with you as town.
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Post Post #1835 (isolation #163) » Sun Jul 01, 2018 3:40 am

Post by Shoshin »

Yeah, and I read your games in the Newbie before you ever replaced into this.
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Post Post #1836 (isolation #164) » Sun Jul 01, 2018 3:40 am

Post by Shoshin »

Shepard's pushing a mislynch.
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Post Post #1837 (isolation #165) » Sun Jul 01, 2018 3:41 am

Post by Shoshin »

And he's "misinterpreting" the evidence to do so.
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Post Post #1839 (isolation #166) » Sun Jul 01, 2018 3:44 am

Post by Shoshin »

Taly, why are you lynching for info? We should be lynching the person most likely to flip scum. Info will follow regardless of the lynch.
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Post Post #1841 (isolation #167) » Sun Jul 01, 2018 3:46 am

Post by Shoshin »

Taly, do you think that Shepard misinterpreted my posts?
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Post Post #1845 (isolation #168) » Sun Jul 01, 2018 4:03 am

Post by Shoshin »

In post 1842, Taly wrote:Probably - I'll need to reread the past few pages for comprehension, but that's not convincing enough to say he's scum.
Why's he misinterpreting my posts if he's town?

There's more than enough to say he's scum. It's the misinterpretation plus the fact that Shepard likes playing with me as town so he wouldn't have been inclined to misinterpret, plus the fact that he's scum by poe, plus the fact that he's skirting around the issue of PP's alignment (first he says PP is scum because of my case, then he says PP is scum only if I'm scum?).

Shepard is really good as scum so you can't clear him because he sounds a bit town, you need to look at precisely what he's doing, who he's defending, who he's attacking, and how he's reading the game.

He entered the game defending PP by voting Fire. But then he says PP is probably scum because of my case, but instead of ever voting PP, he votes me because I unvoted PP. Then he says PP isn't scum unless I'm scum. His logic lacks any internal consistency. How is PP scum for behaviors until the point where I unvote, after which PP is scum only if I'm scum?
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Post Post #1847 (isolation #169) » Sun Jul 01, 2018 4:10 am

Post by Shoshin »

Shepard, you are misinterpreting my unvote to mean that PP is town when I never said that. I still think PP is scummy.
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Post Post #1849 (isolation #170) » Sun Jul 01, 2018 4:12 am

Post by Shoshin »

Taly, you obviously don't understand how Shepard plays as scum. His response to being copped as scum would in almost all cases be "fuck yeah," because that's how he plays as scum.
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Post Post #1851 (isolation #171) » Sun Jul 01, 2018 4:20 am

Post by Shoshin »

Then lynch PP. If PP's scum, I'd put the chances of Shepard flipping scum at 95%.
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Post Post #1869 (isolation #172) » Mon Jul 02, 2018 3:01 am

Post by Shoshin »

I'm okay with a Penguin lynch. Would like to see DV's promised posting before lynching, though.
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Post Post #1884 (isolation #173) » Mon Jul 02, 2018 11:56 am

Post by Shoshin »

VOTE: Penguin

Shepard tomorrow.
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Post Post #1885 (isolation #174) » Mon Jul 02, 2018 11:57 am

Post by Shoshin »

MWNN's probably town.
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Post Post #1962 (isolation #175) » Sat Jul 07, 2018 5:45 pm

Post by Shoshin »

Something interesting happened to me last night.
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Post Post #1963 (isolation #176) » Sat Jul 07, 2018 5:45 pm

Post by Shoshin »

Still think Shepard is the best vote here and Penguin's flip doesn't change that.
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Post Post #2088 (isolation #177) » Mon Jul 09, 2018 11:41 am

Post by Shoshin »

VOTE: Commander Shepard
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Post Post #2117 (isolation #178) » Tue Jul 10, 2018 11:39 am

Post by Shoshin »

I feel the same as you, DV. And yeah, I'll talk through the game.
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Post Post #2130 (isolation #179) » Tue Jul 10, 2018 1:32 pm

Post by Shoshin »

In post 2118, DeasVail wrote:I'm going to post my incredibly simplistic thoughts on players, because despite all the "information" we do have, when it comes down to it, I don't actually have that much to say.

Punreader: Very unlikely to be group scum. Even if they are some kind of third party, at this stage it's most likely in their best interests to help the town so their death is not worth pursuing any time soon. I often don't really gel with the arguments they make, but that's probably not alignment-relevant in this case.

MariaR: Overall I'm kind of underwhelmed by her play in the game. But I've been very underwhelming as well and so it's really a matter of working out whether this is town-apathy because of the mess that this game has been or if it's just scum coasting while town continues to be a mess. Is there any way to tell the difference between these two things??? I don't know! The inno on Vaxkiller is interesting and is a positive in my mind, but I can't rule it as unquestionably town.

Espeonage: If Fire Assassin's role is taken as valid, then Espe is town. I also don't think that Fire and Espe are scum together because Fire almost got Espe lynched.

Dunnstral: From play I strongly think that Dunn is town. There is also Fire's result (but Fire's alignment is a question mark to me right now)

Shepard: Very unsure what to think here. If I had to pick an alignment, it would be scum, but there are things that make me unsure. The FoSing of me without actually seeming to think that I'm scum seems to go against what scum would want to do. If they wanted to get me lynched, then just get me lynched. If they want to "townread" me, then I would expect some amount of buddying here. But maybe my problem here is that I'm making expected scumplay too simplistic. Maybe Shepard is just scum.

The worst: TBG's post at the end of Day 2 did resonate with me as I had been thinking similar things. I find the worst's play to be generally town but with nothing that actually strongly points away from scum, and at this stage of the game, that requires a re-look at the worst's alignment. He also seems to really fit with what I'd expect from coasting scum, but Taly did strongly think he was town and they did have some kind of role interaction, which gives me pause.

Shoshin: Despite her being a common scumread, I actually like her play. I know I don't have any strong reason for thinking this, but I feel uncomfortable about the idea of lynching her. Maybe this is a bad thing! Maybe I'm just being bad! I don't know.

Fire Assassin: I don't even know. I really thought that the cop guilty fiasco was indicative of town but today's play from Fire has just not been what I would expect from town.

Chara: Probably town despite my reservations.

ManWithNoName: My feelings on him are just super mediocre. If I needed to fill a scumteam theory, then I would probably put his name in because it wouldn't make me feel uncomfortable, but that would be lazy and maybe I just need to see more.

Vaxkiller: I struggle to see his play coming from scum so my inclination is then town regardless of Maria's alignment.

---

I am completely aware that most of the above is vague and unspecific and not at all helpful, but that's where my thoughts are at right now.

I probably would just lynch Shepard, but I am really worried considering how this game has gone so far.
This mirrors how I feel, except flip your thoughts on me to you, and I'm more confident about Shepard flipping scum.
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Post Post #2151 (isolation #180) » Wed Jul 11, 2018 6:45 am

Post by Shoshin »

the worst, why are you voting me?
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Post Post #2197 (isolation #181) » Wed Jul 11, 2018 2:04 pm

Post by Shoshin »

The cat thing was DV? Interesting.
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Post Post #2198 (isolation #182) » Wed Jul 11, 2018 2:05 pm

Post by Shoshin »

What's a lightning rod?
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Post Post #2202 (isolation #183) » Wed Jul 11, 2018 2:09 pm

Post by Shoshin »

I can state unequivocally that someone visisted me last night.
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Post Post #2203 (isolation #184) » Wed Jul 11, 2018 2:09 pm

Post by Shoshin »

Probably DV.
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Post Post #2205 (isolation #185) » Wed Jul 11, 2018 2:10 pm

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There's no lightning rod.
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Post Post #2207 (isolation #186) » Wed Jul 11, 2018 2:11 pm

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Did Shepard claim?
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Post Post #2208 (isolation #187) » Wed Jul 11, 2018 2:11 pm

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Vax, you said you're a vig, right?
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Post Post #2209 (isolation #188) » Wed Jul 11, 2018 2:11 pm

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Is there like a list of claims that I could take a look at?
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Post Post #2211 (isolation #189) » Wed Jul 11, 2018 2:13 pm

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I've barely been reading this game.

Can you catch me up on what's happening?
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Post Post #2215 (isolation #190) » Wed Jul 11, 2018 2:17 pm

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Vax, why didn't you counterclaim Pun on D1?
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Post Post #2216 (isolation #191) » Wed Jul 11, 2018 2:17 pm

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They should out who is in their neighborhood.
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Post Post #2217 (isolation #192) » Wed Jul 11, 2018 2:17 pm

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If they don't, it's effectively a scum claim.
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Post Post #2220 (isolation #193) » Wed Jul 11, 2018 2:18 pm

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There's three cops?
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Post Post #2221 (isolation #194) » Wed Jul 11, 2018 2:18 pm

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Vax, what's your role? Full claim?
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Post Post #2222 (isolation #195) » Wed Jul 11, 2018 2:19 pm

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Shepard, your role suggests there's an SK? If so, why don't you believe that one of Pun or Vax is SK?
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Post Post #2224 (isolation #196) » Wed Jul 11, 2018 2:20 pm

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Also, Shep, if you're in a PM with Pun, why would he shoot you?
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Post Post #2226 (isolation #197) » Wed Jul 11, 2018 2:21 pm

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There's not a lightning rod. I'm 100% certain of that.
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Post Post #2228 (isolation #198) » Wed Jul 11, 2018 2:21 pm

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Why the fuck would you ask someone to shoot you?
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Post Post #2229 (isolation #199) » Wed Jul 11, 2018 2:21 pm

Post by Shoshin »

No, let's get full claims. We need to figure this out, we don't need people keeping information to themselves at this point.
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