Turn of Camn ~FIN~

[Keychain]

Awww.

Too bad we're lynching him.

Too bad we're lynching him.

Hello to you too!

I was keeping up until like page 30. I'll read and give thoughts in a few hours.

[Keychain]

You're going to make it really hard to ISO your posts, you know. Would you be able to quote them in hydra?

[Keychain]

Thanks


DGB's pivot on Parama was very odd to me - is getting annoyed and replacing out really a good reason to hard scumread him considering how solid 936 seemed? Based on a tell twelve years old according to 1184, unless I misinterpreted. Possibly she's the kind of player who generally leaves herself no room to manoeuvre when she states her reads and so any changes look like a huge 180. But the pivot to my slot after the wagon was formed by Mulch, Maria and Ginngie is scummy timing.

Not a fan of Chara's posting, but I'm happy to give the pair time to get their act together. Jumping the gun on someone who claims to be extremely readable doesn't seem like a good idea early on.

I can see Fire scum, do I remember someone being madly opposed to that? Or is it just the vig claim? I'd like to hear for and against.

Mathdino seems unfocused. Not as driven as I'd expect.

implosion could go either way. Mulch could go either way, Kuuhaku could go either way. All three are worth a closer look.

I don't think either North or Ari are worth focusing on at this point (love you both), and shos is away so nothing really there. Also not really interested in BBmolla or Reck. Hi BBmolla! It's nice to play with one of my ICs again.

mastina's more recent read on Ginngie is worth noting wrt Ginngie's alignment, though it says very little about mastina. And LLD going all in on Maria scum says nothing useful to me about either of their alignments tbh, not sure what the point is.

Sorry if I rehashed anything. It's a big game, huh.

[Keychain]

I can see that. On the other hand, with Mulch also saying that at some point, I wouldn't be surprised if he decided to switch it up for a game since it seems there's a few players here who have a reasonable handle on how he plays.


implosion's 827 and 832 are promisingly towny to me. Weird that implosion seems to have so many townreads, I lean the other way :/ implosion, why did you change your mind to Reck town in 1259? I don't follow.

mastina's 1158 and 1213 are a lot of words for the fairly flimsy "molla's town but I can't pinpoint why". mastina, can you indicate any posts or sequence of posts of his that most strongly give you this feeling he's town?

Parama, seriously.

You're breaking my goddamn heart.

My tiny, cold, blackened heart.

I'm sorry.

[Keychain]

I can see that. On the other hand, with Mulch also saying that at some point, I wouldn't be surprised if he decided to switch it up for a game since it seems there's a few players here who have a reasonable handle on how he plays.

Okay.....

So why do you think I am scum if you think I’m not in my scum meta?

Uhh, I don't think we've ever actually played in the same game. So it would be kind of silly for me to try and read you from meta, when I think you're perfectly capable of faking serious as scum.

I agree with North's 674: a lot of your reads seem very empty. I've been looking but I can't see many if any reasons for the townreads in 357, for example. But it does look like you retroactively justified your mastina push?

Jeez I didn't see that mastina townread in 1264. What makes you think she's town now?
Surely if you're a vig, you have no reason to push town to lynch someone you think is town just because you don't like playing with them.

Keychain is scum too LOL Imagine what.

LOL show your working please.

(expired on 2018-04-11 21:03:37)

this is how long mafia has left to enjoy this game.

What's the purpose of this countdown again?

[Keychain]

That's not what I mean.

Why

a countdown, why repeatedly hype it? Seems overdramatic. I'd much prefer to see Chara playing in the meantime. 1217 was promising.

[Keychain]

Oh I see, it's you. I hope you had a good birthday. 1235's hydra slip did look like Chara is biding their time until your countdown ends.

[Keychain]

I am fascinated to see how this shakes out.

Ginngie what's your mastina read?

[Keychain]

I'm fairly sceptical of the idea of doing the harder lynch first. At least once I've seen a townie have one town and one scum as lockscum, and tried to lynch the townie first because "harder lynch". I'd prefer more likely scum.

I do think out of mastina and Dinoslot I scumread Dino's posting more. I'll die laughing if this is Centipede bussing. I still don't see too much town in them, but might as well solve this burden of proficiency thing soonish.

VOTE: Brian Skies

On the other hand

If I'm getting lynched, let me know now so I don't have to catch up anymore.

If you're town, catch up so we can have thoughts regardless of whether we lynch you or not! Also I like your avatar.

I am fascinated to see how this shakes out.

Ginngie what's your mastina read?

Holy yikes this is scum

[Keychain]

Im caught up now, but I really need to sleep so I can wake up early for work. So thoughts will have to wait until later.

Oh cool
So you're assuming Centipede and mastina are teammates?

If you're town, catch up so we can have thoughts regardless of whether we lynch you or not! Also I like your avatar.

I'm not caught up and won't be until sometime tomorrow.

Do you not read? Or did you just ignore that so you could have an excuse to join my wagon?

Snippy.

Your catching up or lack thereof is pretty clearly irrelevant to my vote on you, so your second sentence is semi nonsensical.

I did read that. I figured with another vote on you, you may be more likely to not bother getting involved, and I wanted to avoid that.

Reck I want my order.

The harder lynch should go through today so I'm more likely to be sheeped post death.

I'm not caught up and won't be until sometime tomorrow.

But I do want to know why this slot thinks I'm the harder lynch. Especially considering the Mastina wagon has stalled all day and and it took barely two hours (give or take) for me to become the leading wagon.

why is brian skies a hard lynch

idgi

Even Reck finds this questionable.

And he's barely reading the game.

Okay. Given the support for a mastina wagon regardless of Centipede's reads and the fact that they are fairly leading this push on you, it makes sense that if they were not in the picture, it's much easier to get a lynch on mastina than you. Do you think you'd be easy to lynch?

[Keychain]

I'm around.

I would rather wait until everyone has posted though, just in case anyone has anything they'd like to get out before night. There's no real need to rush. I don't think DGB, camn, shos or Madoka and Homura have posted today.

[Keychain]

I guess this is where I check in?

I'm all for a fast day!

VOTE: Briian Skies

Oh no did I forget you?

That's L-1 with Ginngie not on the wagon, I think.


Brian is 100% the lynch today but by going to night without hearing from players it's like we're throwing potential information away, for no reason apart from impatience.

[Keychain]

Since they know I'm a power role anyway

-If I'm a vig or vig variant, I tried to shoot implosion
-If I'm a cop or cop variant, I green checked Madoka
- If I'm a protective or protective variant, I protected Elli in the night
- If I'm a different type of role, I visited Shos in the night.

Night 2:

- If I'm a vig or vig variant- eh, you all know I'm not anyway
- If I'm a cop or cop variant, I green checked Shos
- If I'm a protective or protective variant, I protected Ginnigie
- If I'm a different type of role, I visited DrippingGoofball in the night

I see.

I'm interested in hearing from LLD and shos.

[Keychain]

After imp we should go for keychain who is most likely last scum.

Yeah nah.

implosion is a good lynch for today but I'm not really able to count votes right now

[Keychain]

VOTE: implosion

As thanks for the VC I guess no talking or anything is going to happen while he's alive.

[Keychain]

Mulch goddammit did you know it was L-1

because those are like the two I wanna lynch the most

why?

Also he claimed an inno on shos N2, not me.

[Keychain]

The fact that people still think that is bizarre to me. Like I was following along for a bit before replacing in and Parama was one of my townreads.

Plus I'm not exactly unreadable myself and I'm also still around to like... read, so holding a static opinion on my slot based on my predecessor is silly.

Anyway. I should do the work of reading the thread properly so I can actually be useful.

I was also interested in your read on GIF, not just me.

[Keychain]

Townreads on Ari need to be explained, Ari has done nothing but been pleasantly about this whole game and I could easily see Ari do that as scum

Nah, I didn't get a chance D1 and we've sped through the rest! Whrn I get home I'm gonna di some Isos of those questionmarks in Elli's reads and hopefully we can make it a perfect win!

Ari - would you be able to give some real quick, top of your head, off the cuff reads on your fellow question marks? Or just put them in order from most likely town to scum.

[Keychain]

Being confident in yourself is never wrong

I wouldn't say never

wrong

, though certainly people need to use their own noggins instead of blindly following others.

Then in the same breath, I'm going to focus on the unknowns in Centipede's readslist ^^


Aristophanes
I've read part of the first camn vs Pine game. I assume Ari has improved his scumplay a bit from posting = town, but the readiness to respond to my 1930 gives me positive feelings there. It was a very lowball question though.


shos
Lots of complaining which could be effort spent reading the game, I would think. Bringing a fresh perspective to the game is generally a really useful asset for town.
Town is lazy too, it just seems like a pro scum approach to take in avoiding committing to anything under the excuse of the game being too much to read.


Madoka and Homura
I can't remember who is signing as who, but if someone in this hydra had a birthday, happy birthday!
583 mason hunting still looks terrible on reread.
Interaction with Firebringer regarding his vig shot also doesn't look good after his NK.
A lot of the references to Maria (I think from Kiana? 414, 597, 637, 702, 725) seem like straight buddying with very little attention to sorting.
There are also points in favour of town, but overall top scumread.
VOTE: Madoka and Homura


Dripping Goofball
That role is ???. It's an interesting move for final scum to pull that so not inclined to lynch her first, though yeah I don't think she should be lasting to LyLo with the claim.

Sigh
I guess I will try

You are annoying

Can you read D1, and particularly the events that happened after 1412?

[Keychain]

Sorry Alisae!

I think lynching one of M&H and shos is best outcome for the day, preference to the former because more of what they've done has been actively scummy versus shos's absenteeism.

DGB's claim makes her look town after Alisae's 2020 because a) I have no idea how scum would know in advance that godfather returns inno to paranoid cops in order to make the fakeclaim unless they took a gamble based on mastina's role PM and/or privately asked the mod, and b) I have no idea why that very specific situation of godfather returning inno to paranoid cops would be the case if her claim is fake, since it seems nonstandard. I don't know if those are good reasons, but they're enough for me right now unless someone has compelling play-based reasons for her to be scum.

Interaction with Firebringer regarding his vig shot also doesn't look good after his NK.

Also this is laughable, I trusted him on being the Vig and trusted and trusted that Alisae would give him a vig, he didnt even night the same night and obviously he was going to die since he was spamming it, what are you even getting at here ?

Yeah sorry that's fairly unclear huh.
He was hard scumreading you for like all D1 and from what I recall of my thoughts, your slot looked like it believed the claim (and you're affirming that here) which would make him a high priority kill for you.
I was just thinking about it like "huh you're right, surely scum!you would kill a claimed vig who was planning on shooting you or one of your buddies ASAP", then I remembered the NK was Centipede. I don't think anything Firebringer said or did made him a better NK than them N1, like are you suggesting he would have been?

That's kind of a rhetorical question, you don't have to feel obliged to answer or anything. It just means that "he didnt even die the same night" (which is how I read that) is a very weak argument.

@Mod: V/LA two days.

[Keychain]

Someone please respond to anything I'm saying!

2073 is
I agree that Math's comment about Kiana could just as easily be about a buddy, I don't particularly think scum are scared of making statements like that about each other if that's the point Mulch is going for regarding it being "town spewy".
camn may also have a point in that M&H v LLD should be cleared up sooner rather than later.

But I'm leaning more towards lynching shos now. Not sure if it's my annoyance over his persistent uninformedness after I tried to help him (quotes spoilered below), or if it's that the whole thing just looks like an act by now like M&H said in 2239.

Spoiler:

OMG GUYS

WHY THE FUCK IS NOBODY HELPING ME WITH UNDERSTANDING THE GAME SO FAR

I cannot read 70 pages right through, come on >_>
what role are you talking about?

[...]

Sigh
I guess I will try

You are annoying

Can you read D1, and particularly the events that happened after 1412?

Is shos being completely unaware of what happened to the scumteam a towntell? I guess a preliminary question would be whether or not the confusion is legitimate in the first place.

I asked this like a zillion times why is nobody linking me

I've guiltied 3 of the scum we're just arguing what order to lynch them in so town is least likely to fuck up while figuring out who's 4.

da fuck
where did this happen and how

Either of the two is fine.

[Keychain]

Yes, it did occur to me. But Centipede's readslist is "what happened" to the scumteam, so you making 2086 seemed a wee bit silly when you'd already been linked so I assumed you either hadn't seen it or were ignoring it.

Timeline with what links I could find that could be interesting to you or provide evidence:
Ellibereth's reads are talked up all earlygame -> Centipede makes a readslist -> we lynch mastina, one of their scumreads that is also widely scumread -> mastina flips scum -> Centipede flips VT -> we lynch the player they made us promise to lynch and who appeared to have given up -> Brian Skies flips scum -> Centipede is 2 for 2 so we lynch their final scumread -> implosion flips scum -> present day.

The willingness to sheep was almost exclusively based on Ellibereth's reputation as having shockingly good reads when town. When Centipede told you they "guiltied" the scumteam, they're referring to their scumreads as guilties.

I think that's all the puzzle pieces to the VT Centipede Syndrome Nails Three Scum mystery. Is there anything else you're still stuck on?

[Keychain]

shos any interesting role to claim?

Duh, I play so much better as scum
No interesting role here

I will target nsg tonight

Not sure how I feel about this.


On the other hand after Maria kill this is relevant

Don't see shos scum zz

Does scum!shos, very likely the next lynch, kill someone who defends him?


God I didn't get anything done last night I'll work on that today.

[Keychain]

Not really. Having her alive to defend him when he's at high risk of being lynched and has no partners alive (except Pine) to help him is more useful than killing her over like LLD or something "because conftown".

[Keychain]

So I think I just aced my Calc 2 exam

AND I GOT A 96 ON MY THESIS EXAM!!!!


YEAH BABE

physics M.Sc. here officially

Congrats!! Also good job Ginngie

VOTE: shos

[Keychain]

Keychain come talk to me

What changed your mind on the kill pointing away from shos?

The kill still points away from shos, but his play today just seems so shady and is outweighing the kill for me. I'm in a bit of a rush right now so not going back for quotes but comments like "today is too late to lynch me" are just considering I think we're still ahead lynch-wise.
I would find it strange for him to kill Maria but that assumes he was up to date on her reads, and he was apparently surprised that a "nonexistent" player was killed so the assumption might be faulty.
If he is scum I assume Pine would have mostly decided the NK though, which makes things harder.

Do we know why the katsuki replacement happened?

It's not game relevant - Mulch has left the site.


@BBmolla: why are you scumreading Katsuki? It just seems based off your annoyance with how they entered the game. I feel like I must be missing something.

[Keychain]

I would say DGB's claim doesn't clear her and could have been made up based on mastina's role. The main thing stopping me there is mod confirmed information that paranoid cop gets an inno on godfather, but again that is something the scumteam could have found out before the claim. Doesn't feel like she's done much except for try and lynch a treestump based on the claim.

I'm conflicted on Ari but want to say town based on a reasonably quick response to questions.

So probably DGB.

I'm listening to Centipede's reads unless someone has a compelling reason not to.

[Keychain]

VOTE: SHOS

FUCKING POST YOU FUCKS

WE HAVE A GAME TO WIN

WHO FUCKING CARES IF WE GOT THREE WE STILL HAVE ONE FUCKER OUT THERE

GET YOUR ASSES IN HERE AND POST OR I SWEAR ILL CALL YOUR MOTHER AND TELL HER YOU DID ME WRONG

But also can you respond to me please? Capslocking at the game to post is fine but this weird thing happens where my interest in posting decreases when it feels like I'm talking to brick walls.

we're mostly in agreement then.

God, how uncomfortable, don't we normally disagree on things?

I'm dead tonight, so maybe I should get another crack at this...

Who the fuck do I lynch...

LLD I like your new avatar! Updated thoughts on who we lynch?

{

mastina

, ginngie, bbmolla, nsg,

mathdino

,

parama

[keychain], mulch}

Interesting quote. I don't think he would put all three of his scumbuddies on the list, just a mafia theory thing, and none of the rest have flipped. If we take this and cross it with

Town: Ginngie, Mulch, LLD, NSG,

Maria

, Ari, BB

Who left:

shos

,

DGB

, Keychain

Madoka

and it leaves us DGB and Shos as the question marks that likely contain the last scum.

I'm pretty much in my town meta.

Camn

is town.

Math

, ari, and

mastina

are solidly in their town meta, although I'm having some reservations about

Math

because I know he's a capable scum player. But there have been a few subtle things here that are making me read him town.

MariaR

,

kuuhaku

,

Firebringer

, and

Implosion

are also solid meta town treads. Same with northsidegal, although not as confident. And I really like

Centipede's

last post, but not going to lock them town yet.

I agree with basically this entire list sans maria. My poe pool is actually really small right now that I count the people in it (

reck

,

shos

,

dgb

, lld,

maria

).

I'm certainly wrong somewhere but alas.

Implo is really jazzed about the list Mulch presented, which makes sense! He seemed to townread most of the scumteam!
But it seems really likely that his PoE contains one scum name! 3 of them are unflipped and guess what names appear again! (I put them in blue because I am having fun with colours tn )

Also other than these mentions the pair appear nowhere else in his Iso but his "I forgot DGB was alive" quip on Page 1.

I'll check the other scum and the Isos of these two, but I think we have our scum!

Which of the two do you think is more likely scum?

[Keychain]

D:
I did think it but I didn't say it! It's cute.

We agreed on Espe I think because we lynched him but not on Dunnstral, and in Tarot we disagreed on garaputo at the end. Both times you were right and I was wrong haha. What I mean is we've always found

something

to argue over.

back in 1964

nice phrasing

[Keychain]

LLD, you should have an inno for us after last night shouldn't you? please claim it.

Also it seems like you're taking the approach that your claim clears you. Why is that? From my perspective it could be a scum role.

Who would have killed Ginngie and not me? someone who doesn't pay attention to games by their own admission and wouldn't have really known I was a power role if, say, they didn't consult with their scum QT first.

Scum also killed Maria, presumably because of your clear, so I don't think this "you didn't know I was a PR" approach makes sense.

[Keychain]

Oh yeah, the replacement was overnight. Never mind then.

[Keychain]

Can Pine not submit the NK, as a treestump?

[Keychain]

It's not a perfect guilty.

Options:
1. LLD redirected Katsuki's kill to Ginngie
2. LLD killed Ginngie
3. Someone other than the two of them killed Ginngie


LLD, why did you redirect to Ginngie? Seems an odd choice.

[Keychain]

I HOPE Y'ALL DONT GET SUCKERED BY LLD'S SWEET TONGUE

PART OF WHY I WANT HER DEAD TODAY IS BECAUSE I DONT TRUST THE REST OF YALL TO POWERLYNCH HER WITHOUT QUESTION AFTER MY TOWNFLIP

Whoa deja vu 1478

irregardless

You're a fan of this word


Out of the 1v1, I'd much prefer to lynch LLD.

[Keychain]

I am asking all townies

Tomorrow I will self vote and if I don't you will lynch me for lying in this post. I will have no way out and I will die tomorrow. But as townies, you WANT ME TO LIVE TONIGHT.

Why do we want you to live tonight?

[Keychain]

DGB would have been a great choice. Never getting nked due to Centipede reads, essentially vanilla, giant question mark.


Who's good at setup spec in this game? I may have a relevant claim but it could just make things worse, idk.

[Keychain]

We have space to lynch the two of them without losing if they're both town making a fuss and Kats should probably go first, yes.

I'd like to hear from LLD and North before night, but also I'm not going to be hugely upset if someone hammers.

[Keychain]

@Mod: Immediate emergency V/LA. Lady Pine and I about to leave for the hospital to welcome baby Pinecone! Yayyyy! I may or may not check in over the next couple of days, depending on how often I can/need to take a break from being a new dad. Posting should stabilize over the next week or so.

Break out the cigars!

!!! So exciting! Don't worry about us, take your time <3

[Keychain]

VOTE: Katsuki

[Keychain]

Haha.

I have an inno on DGB.

[Keychain]

Pretty hard, off the top of my head I can't think of a way it might have been fooled. Scum will just kill her overnight so we probably shouldn't no lynch today.

[Keychain]

Wait wtf!?

We no lynch today and massclaim tomorrow.
This NK makes no sense!

I'll Iso everyone alive tomorrow but what the hell!

VOTE: NL

Why doesn't this NK make sense?

[Keychain]

We are not no lynching. DGB is town, we no lynch we lose her. It's already between the three of us for final scum.

Actually we should massclaim sometime soon, shouldn't we?

[Keychain]

I think our chances are better with cards on the table. Scum already know most of my role. We have a good shot of lynching correctly in you/me/Ari today, especially with camn+DGB as conftown.

keychain you're not confirmed town.

When did I say I was?


Ugh I'm so wound up :/

[Keychain]

Bird in the hand etc etc

But I've thought some now - I don't mind a no lynch so much anymore

[Keychain]

I think NL is fine given KeychainTown.
But given keychainSCUM...we probably lose.

Either alignment...his LYLO result would be unhlepful, I think.
Either he gets a real innocent, which says nothing about his alignment..and we lose the real innocent we already have....
Or he gets a guilty, which we can't trust, anyway.

Or he gets nothing, and we are here still.

Okay yeah, I think we should massclaim today and decide what to do from there. I can go first but I would prefer Ari go first ^^


Also I'm a she, treepeople.

[Keychain]

I'm an even night bus driver. I swapped North and DGB last night. I crumbed my night actions in the first post after daystart. Since North died, that makes DGB the target unless I got roleblocked. With Brian Skies's flip and Pine saying I was softing redirector, I'm fairly sure my action went through, though maybe he guessed.


Crumbs:

N2 swapped LLD and shos. I got worried when Mulch said he might have greenchecked shos when I swapped him, so quoted his post. I thought LLD was a good candidate for NK.

Since they know I'm a power role anyway

-If I'm a vig or vig variant, I tried to shoot implosion
-If I'm a cop or cop variant, I green checked Madoka
- If I'm a protective or protective variant, I protected Elli in the night
- If I'm a different type of role, I visited Shos in the night.

Night 2:

- If I'm a vig or vig variant- eh, you all know I'm not anyway
- If I'm a cop or cop variant, I green checked Shos
- If I'm a protective or protective variant, I protected Ginnigie
- If I'm a different type of role, I visited DrippingGoofball in the night

I see.

I'm interested in hearing from LLD and shos.

N4 no action (last part) - literally couldn't think of anything useful to do since I was worried about messing up investigative results.

shos any interesting role to claim?

Duh, I play so much better as scum
No interesting role here

I will target nsg tonight

Not sure how I feel about this.


On the other hand after Maria kill this is relevant

Don't see shos scum zz

Does scum!shos, very likely the next lynch, kill someone who defends him?


God I didn't get anything done last night I'll work on that today.

I tried to crumb N6 in advance, swapping North and LLD, but Katsuki vengekilled LLD so I subbed in DGB. I thought North was fairly likely to get killed

We have space to lynch the two of them without losing if they're both town making a fuss and Kats should probably go first, yes.

I'd like to hear from LLD and North before night, but also I'm not going to be hugely upset if someone hammers.

This following quote was me wondering if town would have two redirecting roles.

DGB would have been a great choice. Never getting nked due to Centipede reads, essentially vanilla, giant question mark.


Who's good at setup spec in this game? I may have a relevant claim but it could just make things worse, idk.

[Keychain]

I need a list of night actions, I'll do it later today if no one beats me to it.

If Ari's claim works without a strongman, then that "Ari's claim relies on a strongman" post is a really odd one for non-strongman scum BB to make. Does that make sense?

[Keychain]

Okay I can't remember numbers right now but I'm fairly certain Ginngie died on an odd night because LLD used her action that night. Ari claimed even night. He can't have been protecting Ginngie. Calm your farm, you're not under threat of getting quicklynched.

He mentioned a strongman before I claimed. I bus drove North, no strongman needed as explanation.

[Keychain]

I'm kind of feeling KeyChain scum.
Yeah, her claim is deep...because it's true.
And revealing you as innocent gets her as much towncred as possible coming into endgame...when she and pine knew a massclaim would be coming...and having 0 results would be suspicious.

Hm.

Why would I inno her in particular, though? DGB has been scumreading me since

Parama

iirc, reasonably lynchable and is a fairly unknown quantity to me. I would have preferred northsidegal alive and conftown because I'm more familiar with her and I think I'd do better at manipulating her, and Aristophanes would have been my second pick.
Bus driver is not a role that you would expect results from, so not entirely sure why that would be suspicious anyway.

Also as a scum busdriver, I don't think I'd have been crumbing my actions (though BB's argument is I'm lying about my previous actions, in which case I locked myself into my fakeclaim targets without knowing what other roles might exist to contradict me).

I think it's more likely Ari than BBmolla. Partly because he's claimed even night, and that seems off to me to have one odd night and two even night in town. I'm relieved by his claim, though, since if scum!DGB roleblocked me North would have been protected.

I'd be lying to say I'm not still keeping Centipede's reads in mind, though.

[Keychain]

Yes, that's how I felt about this post:

Bit 1:
DGB is conf town as outlined above.
Do you agree? Disagree? Why?

The only way she couldn't be is if she was a second Godfather, which, tbh, I think Alisae would provide us more clues to infer that in some way.

because I don't think you being a godfather would change my result.

I'm a bus driver, not a cop. I know you're town because I swapped you and North, and North died - therefore you were targeted, making you not scum.

If I was roleblocked, that means scum tried to kill

North

and succeeded, and does not confirm you as town. My result would be a false positive.

But if you're scum, Ari protected her, so that can't be true. Scum would also have to have two roleblockers.

Does that follow?

[Keychain]

Also

Okay, so camp was cancelled but now I am moving on Wednesday...so

V/LA Monday-Thursday
Cancel the last V/LA

What a life.

exciting!

[Keychain]

So I just did an Iso of Molla and Key-Rama and crtl+f'd mastina. I was going to do this for all the scum team, and still might, but holy shit is it obvious this is Key-Rama Scum!

Do it for the whole scumteam, because if you're misguided town this is not the conclusion you want to stop on.

I would like an explanation of why my claim makes me scum, though. I'm fairly conservative with my fakeclaiming as scum as a general rule, and I think my motivation for crumbing my actions so town with results wouldn't be misled is pretty evidently town.

therefore you were targeted, making you not scum.

Why on Earth would I be targeted? Have I not been completely useless, even failing to show up for entire quicklynches?

I have no idea why you'd be targeted. I said pretty much the same thing in 2497 - I thought you wouldn't be! That's literally why I swapped you, I was trying to redirect the night kill

off

northsidegal!

But she's dead and I swapped you both last night,

so you must have been targeted otherwise she wouldn't be dead

.


Having Pine in the game makes it harder, but I'll see what I can do reading through ISOs of NK targets.

[Keychain]

I have no idea why you'd be targeted. I said pretty much the same thing in 2497 - I thought you wouldn't be! That's literally why I swapped you, I was trying to redirect the night kill off northsidegal!

And ONTO DGB?
Why her?

As she pointed out herself, she hasn't exactly been town's greatest asset this game, and I thought there was a reasonable chance she was scum. Obviously best case scenario was redirecting the NK back onto scum, that would be game over.

Keychain the theory is that you mostly told the truth in your claim.

I’m pretty set on Keychain being scum, I really don’t see Ari scum playing like this tbh. And Keychain seems consistently on her back foot.

You were arguing that my targets were faked and that I busdrove the kill targets. I was arguing that my crumbs are real and that I have no reason to make them as scum.

Wait...is that even how it works?

... okay have we established what I'm claiming now, I can go over it again if you still want clarification?


I'm just sitting down to look at the reads of the NK targets now. In the meantime, to those who are scumreading me:

What is my motivation for conftowning Goofball today instead of taking the no lynch?

As scum, I would need to convince

two

townies to vote a third - I would find it considerably easier to manage fewer people, especially including camn. The towncred I would get from it would not outweigh the added difficulty of more townies to deal with.

But even if you believe I would take that risk,

why DrippingGoofball?

Why, out of the players I could have chosen, would I choose her? I must have had a reason to inno a player I don't know who scumreads me. The only way I could win from this position is to convince her to vote a townie - it's MyLo, her vote is required to lynch. Why would I not choose someone who I have a better chance of doing that with?

[Keychain]

As she pointed out herself, she hasn't exactly been town's greatest asset this game, and I thought there was a reasonable chance she was scum.

This makes the NK super interesting, because scum apparently tried to kill her anyway.

I'm terrified she's

somehow

scum and the game is already lost, but I can't think of how it would be true given claims so if that's the case, oh well.

[Keychain]

A- wifom
B- she was ALREADY conf on play alone.

WIFOM doesn't help me win her vote, which I would need if I want to win. This is a shite position as scum. Plus I'm not strong enough as scum to leverage the WIFOM, I'm not the kind of player who relies on it, and it certainly wouldn't help me win more than taking two townies of my choosing into LyLo. The aim is to win and I would be giving myself all the concrete advantages possible.

Additionally, BBmolla offered me what surely would have been the best of both worlds as scum!Keychain - I claim my inno for the towncred, we no lynch, I kill her, oh noes the plan didn't go as expected and I now have one less townie to convince plus all the benefits of confirming her.
Instead, I tipped my hand by saying it would be a better idea not to, and pretty much panicked when I realised my inno might not be good.

Question: how did you think she was scum again? I remember you disputing her being conf....but really? Paranoid cop and godfather--- it's an Alisae setup instant classic. It's elegance and symmetry are unreal. So wtf?

I didn't really consider her conf by play. She was kind of not around a whole lot, hyperfocused on her role and this goal of lynching a treestump except when she occasionally offered up other reads she never seemed to reconsider, and it seemed like a way of keeping herself out of things while town lynched each other.

I know very little about setup spec, as I've mentioned previously this game during LLD v Katsuki, and even less about Alisae's particular modding tendencies.

Plus, northsidegal was also very town, had claimed miller, and I'm familiar with her. Bringing unknowns into MyLo is risky when I need to rely on them and I had alternative options. Why didn't I inno her instead?

[Keychain]

N1: Centipede Syndrome

MASTINA IS SCUM
MATHDINO IS SCUM

IMPLOSION IS PROBABLY SCUM THOUGH LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN THE ABOVE TWO

NOT SURE ABOUT 4 BUT OH FUCKING WELL

TOWN
Centipede Syndrome
Northsidegal
Mulch
Keychain
BBmolla
Lady Lambdadelta
Ginngie

MOST LIKELY TOWN
Firebringer
MariaR
xRECKONERx

MOST LIKELY SCUM
Implosion

SCUM
Brian Skies
mastina

PEOPLE LEFT
shos
DrippingGoofball
Aristophanes
Madoka and Homura

N2: Firebringer

Claimed vig, but also claimed intent to shoot shos (VT).
He then claimed delayed vig that targeted implosion (scum), so potentially scum thought they would avoid implosion being vig killed by killing Fire.
Early reads:

My town block rn:
Mathdino, Parama, Ginggie, LLD, aristophanes

Aristo is def not a pick Pine would go for

So Fire was an immediate threat to implosion, but was also townreading Ari. I didn't see any read on BBmolla, just a response to a post.

N3: xRECKONERx

bbmolla town

ari is null so far, not enough content

Plus being camn's mason, which scum possibly picked up on.

N4: MariaR

Conftown by LLD, and likely killed because of that, but I'll look at her reads anyway. It looks like she was scumreading me and BBmolla.

Well that was easy~

Northsidegal xRECKONERx kuuhaku Centipede Syndrome

Aristophanes Firebringer

DrippingGoofball

mastina Mathdino shos Ginngie Mulch Implosion

BBmolla Parama

Lady Lambdadelta

Pretty colours.

N5: Ginngie

Interesting because LLD thought this guiltied Katsuki based on thinking that no one would kill Ginn (2479, 2518) - with the only reason to leave LLD alive being to frame her.
But it's especially interesting that scum decided

not

to kill LLD, so they must have either not thought that she was a threat, or were confident in being able to talk their way out if she guiltied them a la Katsuki. Not killing a claimed PR to avoid an inno is a really surprising move, so I'm guessing Ginngie was a high value kill?

Town: Ginngie, Mulch, LLD, NSG, Maria, Ari, BB

Who left: shos, DGB, Keychain Madoka

then

1) claim clearing
2) elli i can’t fool
3) my interactions with pine obvioustown
4) who tf is scum if it’s not goofball

quote yourself quoting elli

There is Ari, shos, and Madoka

So that suggests BB town. I don't know why he'd want to kill Ginngie so badly that he'd give LLD another inno, since Ginn was not looking in his direction like at

all

. Alternatively, maybe scum thought they could guess where LLD would redirect and hoped for a guilty based on that.

N6: DrippingGoofball

Scum may have found her claim pretty convincingly town and/or were more concerned with her play than her reads. Most of her recent content before N6 scumreads Ginngie and tries to lynch Pine based on her role, without many open reads.



That's annoyingly inconclusive. I still don't get the Ginngie kill - it was a great kill that put LLD and Katsuki at each other's throats, but I don't understand how or why it was made.

[Keychain]

As for why you inno'd DGB, well you needed to secure that vote on *not you*! What is the best way to do that? Claim an inno on them so they trust you! It makes perfect sense really!

Again, why her though? Why not you, for example?

NSG was a strong swing variable and that probably scared scum because a swing vote in endgame can really mess things up, especially from an essentially conftown.

...Ari, you are suggesting Goofball was not a strong swing variable and that I chose to bring her into endgame. Please explain that. She had very few reads posted and I have not played with her before.

Keychain seems like scum who is upset at being caught for the wrong reasons

?
Surely if I'm scum, these are the right reasons? Or maybe you think I'm throwing this hissy with the formatting and exclamation marks over being scumread for the things that should make me most town, which is sort of accurate.
If so, why does that make me scum and not town? Getting lynched here is a gameloss for me either way, which is why I'm currently putting my effort into avoiding that instead of figuring out which one of you is scum slash making a case on Aristophanes like I really should be.

Also, please answer my bolded questions in 2725.

[Keychain]

I wouldn't have claimed an inno if I'd left it, obviously. The other option being to claim my inno, no lynch with BB's hypothetical plan, get all the benefits of looking town with none of the drawbacks of having to deal with a confirmed townie wildcard.


MyLo isn't always better than LyLo for town.

With four unknowns, chance of lynching correctly is 1/4, which is worse than 1/3. That's when we no lynch because that sucks.

We don't have four unknowns. We have the same 1/3 choice as LyLo, but with Goofball as an added conftown voice+vote. If you really want us to be in LyLo because it would be protown, why aren't we no lynching right now?

Oh yeah, because we're in a better position in MyLo. Your argument makes no sense.


I'll be back this evening. Thinking about this game is making it hard to focus irl.

[Keychain]

Aristophanes <3

I'm going to assume 2/3 scum are from the prein list. He would want to be sure his preferred team is invited!

I'm trying to refrain from guessing scum via draft though! Otherwise Mastina/Ginngie/someone old school like DGB would be my guesses. Gotta go by play tho!

Dammit mastina! Why must you make such compelling posts! Like, I already think the two of you are prime draft candidates for scum!

Inconsistency in whether he's using the draft for sorting indicates he's saying whatever makes sense in the moment rather than saying things that result from a legitimate train of thought. Also jeez these two posts aren't that far apart in his ISO, but miles apart ingame.

His early read on mastina was insta scum based on her opening scumclaim. But his scumread of her is shallow and mostly made up of "wtf is she doing??" (not a direct quote but he does say "wtf" to her posts twice - 811, 1350 - so I feel justified in this characterisation), which feels like a stance a scumbuddy would take considering it would be fairly difficult for him to engage with her in a realistic way. It would need to stay surface level.

His engagement with the shos lynch was pretty bland support for the only wagon going in posts such as 2407, with no apparent drive to look into other players. Oh except 2367.

{

mastina

, ginngie, bbmolla, nsg,

mathdino

,

parama

[keychain], mulch}

Interesting quote. I don't think he would put all three of his scumbuddies on the list, just a mafia theory thing, and none of the rest have flipped. If we take this and cross it with

Town: Ginngie, Mulch, LLD, NSG,

Maria

, Ari, BB

Who left:

shos

,

DGB

, Keychain

Madoka

and it leaves us DGB and Shos as the question marks that likely contain the last scum.

I'm pretty much in my town meta.

Camn

is town.

Math

, ari, and

mastina

are solidly in their town meta, although I'm having some reservations about

Math

because I know he's a capable scum player. But there have been a few subtle things here that are making me read him town.

MariaR

,

kuuhaku

,

Firebringer

, and

Implosion

are also solid meta town treads. Same with northsidegal, although not as confident. And I really like

Centipede's

last post, but not going to lock them town yet.

I agree with basically this entire list sans maria. My poe pool is actually really small right now that I count the people in it (

reck

,

shos

,

dgb

, lld,

maria

).

I'm certainly wrong somewhere but alas.

Implo is really jazzed about the list Mulch presented, which makes sense! He seemed to townread most of the scumteam!
But it seems really likely that his PoE contains one scum name! 3 of them are unflipped and guess what names appear again! (I put them in blue because I am having fun with colours tn )

Also other than these mentions the pair appear nowhere else in his Iso but his "I forgot DGB was alive" quip on Page 1.

I'll check the other scum and the Isos of these two, but I think we have our scum!

Here it looks like he's cherry picking several posts and combining them to reach a conclusion that isn't really meaningful and doesn't really go anywhere. Like why use that Ginngie post? Ginn wasn't even dead town at the time. Maybe I'm forgetting important context, but it seems contrived.


Then today. When I claimed my inno on Goofball:

Keychain, if this is a true inno it doesn't matter if we do this today or tomorrow, so I'll leave it up to you if we are to go for it or not today!

He clearly sees that the inno means we're in no worse a situation than we would be in 3P LyLo.

However he's now pivoted to pushing that I would be aiming for MyLo as scum:

Town love lylo because it takes out a variable and makes it more likely all town will vote together. Mylo is waaaaay better for scum because getting all 3 townies to agree is tough enough, and getting them all to vote scum is even tougher! Mylo is simply way better for scum!

The way he's using the same evidence to reach whichever conclusion best suits him at the time is scum trying to get their final lynch. If he actually believed this, he would be pushing for no lynch.


He also early on in the day states his surety in BB scum:

Okay, so Molla it is then! Thanks for making it easy!

The amount of shit being flung in that post!

probably because from scum perspective it would have looked hard to lynch me after my claim, and there was an indication of some support for that lynch from camn. He acknowledges in the same post that the logistics of my claim don't really make sense as scum:

Keychain could be scum bus driver, we all agree on that. Bur the logistics really don't work else either NSG should be alive or they shot DGB and redirected their own kill for whatever reason they would do that (if scum can even sumbit an action and kill at the same time).

then hey, total about turn.

So I just did an Iso of Molla and Key-Rama and crtl+f'd mastina. I was going to do this for all the scum team, and still might, but holy shit is it obvious this is Key-Rama Scum!

I'll make this into an actual case in a bit so long as time permits, but wow, with this, voting placement on D1, and the claim, I'm pretty positive we have our scum! =D

He's done a 180 to thinking I'm positively scum, and now switches to using the claim as evidence for me being

not

town.

I see his development to thinking BB's reaction is town, but this level of certainty of both of us being scum, just at different times, doesn't make sense from town in MyLo. He's not thinking about which of us is scum, he's figuring out which one of us he can lynch.


I'd forgotten how bloody hard it is to write cases on my phone.

[Keychain]

How does aristo-scum come up with this lol doc-claim? Theoretically?
It seems to ~bad~ to be fake.

I don't really think it's that bad a claim, so I'm not really sure how to answer this. Assuming I'm town and Ari is scum - scum know their DGB kill was redirected to northsidegal by one of the surviving town, so claiming to have protected her is a lovely level of "look I'm involved in the night actions" without actually needing to have blocked a kill.

Though on the other hand, if I was a redirector instead of a bus driver, I think that would put our actions in conflict. I don't think that would be a particularly dangerous risk for Ari in claiming though.

[Keychain]

I'll likely vote Keychain in the next couple days, I think we're getting cold feet because the thread went dead after Keychain posted a wall (Keychain is looking to argue semantics, because if Keychain can win an argument it will make us think we were not just wrong about the argument but about the bigger arguments.)

Which wall?
If you're talking about 2730, there was plenty of activity afterwards.
If you're talking about 2749, the thread was already dead.

Also if you think 2749 regarding Aristophanes is arguing semantics, I'm saddened. The stances someone takes and and argues are not semantics. You seem to be expecting me as town to just lay down and die.

Molla's L-1 seems natural, Key's insistance on waiting despite what may as well have been a guilty from Elli sounds rather LAMIST to me. Like, there was no way that wasn't an extremely fast day, so why draw it out but for town points or to try getting someone else implicated for the next day instead of Implo? I see no reason for that post from town.

Because we still needed one more scum and to find scum it helps a lot to have something to work with. We quick lynch everyday => we have nothing.

DGB, my biggest priblem with that is like, why would ScuMolla bus mastina so hard? I'm sure mastina never intended on being lynched so I doubt a scum buddy would be that consistently vocal against them! It just doesn't quite make sense to me.

Is there any more to your case?

I don't think that scum would have been relying on keeping mastina around longterm, and indeed a D1 quicklynch would probably have been super useful to them and worth the bus.
Also if your problem is really with a scum buddy being that consistently vocal against mastina, you may want to skim through Mathdino's ISO. Or are you taking that into account already?

If you want to bus your buddy... you don't call it a policy lynch! You make up some reasons that are going to make you look smart.

I'm not sure this is that good as a blanket rule. Again, Mathdino.

[Keychain]

One possible reason:

also both of them are people who go into scumgames and strategize the fuck out of them.

pop quiz, how would a dino/mastina scumteam think to neuter me?

DINGDINGDING

Limit the damage to a 1 for 1 trade.

I think they partially hoped mastina just got bulldozed QUICKLY and I would just come out hard on them the second I scumread them and then I'd get NK'd.

(Mastina is the obvious sacrifice here in any case given that they know I have a reliable tell on them).

But I didn't get jebaited.

AND HERE WE ARE.

[Keychain]

There's no real wine from your perspective, not sure what's bothering you. If DGB is conftown, all that post says is that you're scum. If you're town, you already know that's incorrect, so you can disregard it.

Okay, that does seem legit.

Why wouldn't Implo have been all over that too though? He never once voted scum the entire game! Surely if a quick death was hoped for he would have jumped on that, no?

Having all three of them do the same thing on D1 would tie them together too much, I would think.

[Keychain]

like fuck I don't know what you guys want from me, I'm not scum, all the fucking arrows point to me not being scum, can we instead look at which player in this LYLO would actually fool everyone and lynch them instead of the obvious lynchbaits?

Wait what
You're saying this is me??
That's super flattering considering you caught me D1 last time we played.

keychain if ari is scum, what role do you think they have? likely an even-night something still, no?

No, I think if limited it would be X-shot. An Even/Odd pair in town makes sense and is very pretty as you've said, but with Brian flipping 2-shot roleblocker it would be awkward to put another even night in the scum team. Not sure what the meat of it would be. There's a whole bunch of fricking weird roles flipped already - mason nexus, fruit vending arsonist, etc., so I don't know where I'd start with figuring that out or what purpose it would serve. Pine having some choice over his team is weighted towards scum I think.
This is also why I think Ari's role is awkward and doesn't fit, because having two even roles and one odd role is weird. But again - setup spec is not my thing.

Actually, Goof...I'm feeling a 180 in myself on the softclaim business.
Like...as scum I'm gonna set up my fakeclaim. Im gonna be ready, and consistent. If I have a PR, I'm gonna play it as if I were town, so if I'm tracked, my targets all make sense.

Keyblade did this.
Molla did not.

camn, did you just say I played my PR like I was town, so I must be scum?


Can people remind me why Ari can't be scum? because I'm stuck on that, I don't think it's BBmolla.

[Keychain]

I prefer having DGB around to anchor the vote, though having you able to get deeper into it would be good as well.

Can people remind me why Ari can't be scum? because I'm stuck on that, I don't think it's BBmolla.

WHy don't you make the case for Ari-Scum?

Because it would probably look a lot like the one I did in 2749

[Keychain]

You wanted to know why I didn't make the case. And hey, I already did, and it seems like it got ignored. Throwing effort into a black hole is really going to suck away that vigour you're looking for.

If there is a good reason you think Ari is town, then maybe I'm wrong, which is why I asked why everyone seems to have this mental block to seeing him as scum. Alternatively, if I'm

not

wrong, people thinking about their reasons might have a better chance of changing their minds than writing walls which no one reads.

[Keychain]

yay the end happened, thank you so much for modding Alisae!