Fallout Mafia - Commonwealth Edition (Day 8)

[OnTheMark]

Jungle pun wilky Alch is my last guess before someone hammers.

[Ankamius]

hm

I think day 4 is when I'll have to start trying again.

[Kokichi Oma]

I lost all hope in this game when obvious town was lynched for no reason.

[Ankamius]

Better start trying soon

Because you bet your ass that scum isn't going to waste time eliminating any threats that can turn the game around

[Ankamius]

Either way, I still firmly believe that we're putting far too much clout into clearing people off shaky mechanics reasons.

The way I'm remembering things, there's actually very little to clear people for. I'm starting to think that the slots that are pushing this kind of rhetoric are more likely to be scum-rich than those that aren't.

[Ankamius]

The part that's iffy on this is that the two slots I can immediately point to regarding that are Impossibear (aka Jingle) and Punreader, both of whom are adept at using these as either alignment.

OnTheMark fits this bill too, but I genuinely don't think their reads are scummy; the way he was pushing davesaz is also sensical in his position as town.

The rest I'll have to really look into further, but it's also possible that the scumteam has worked to townblock themselves. Universal townreads are worth looking at to see if there's deepscum hidden there.

[Ankamius]

Punreader: I want your thoughts on these deductions at your next convenience.

[Ankamius]

matt, if you're still here, work with me. I've been a bit out of it this game but if you're town here, this will help a lot on getting the game back on track.

[Ankamius]

Good talk, everyone.

Let's do this again tomorrow

[OnTheMark]

Jungle pun wilky Alch is my last guess before someone hammers.

It’s midnight I am tired desire to catch up is null and I have dr appt tomorrow

[Dunnstral]

Alchemist21 is scum

[OnTheMark]

Alchemist21 is scum

Mod have mercy on my atheist soul I am scared my townreads are agreeing with me and this might be a thing

[Punreader]

The things that you think are low probability are things that I think are high probability because they would be low probability

if there were no liars or curveballs

. Mafia is a game of liars and curveballs, in which ordinarily low probability things are the most likely.

This is my full and complete answer on why we disagree. Kindly stop trying to make it seem like I'm dodging.

The problem is that is a dodge, as it still fails to answer my points.

davesaz:

When I started reading, I had foreknowledge that davesaz's miller claim was

apparently retracted/changed into 'some negative utility'

at a later point.

The underlined is incorrect.
I stated that I'm miller. At a later point I said that my "ability" section had flavor in it. There has never been a retraction / change about the role -- it's straight Commonwealth miller with nothing else, and nothing but the flavor in the ability section.

Oh, that makes a difference then. I was under the impression from the list of claims that it had changed later in the game during a section I hadn't read.

With the knowledge it hasn't, you become a reasonably solid punread.

This comes from the first 20 pages. davesaz claimed miller; wilky counterclaimed miller. wilky was able to provide flavor, justification, and had more to his role; davesaz was dodgy and elusive at providing any details behind his role. I thought that was null because if he retracted/altered the claim later, that'd explain the behavior just as well. Him having maintained the claim offers him no such justification.

I don't know if a gambit is likely or unlikely, I just know it can't be ruled out.

Nothing "can be ruled out". There is (almost) nothing which is impossible in a game. (Almost) everything CAN happen.

The job of a town player is to determine

which things most likely

did

happen

.

Gambiting is something which could have happened.
It is not something that is likely to have happened.

Ignoring the probability (rather, lack thereof) of it happening in favor of embracing the possibility it happened is thoroughly a pro-pun agenda.

Moving on to the question of whether town would inevitably punish scum!Jungle with a lynch -- it seems that WIFOM might be king here and we might not do so simply on the "mistake".

Oh? And where do you draw the line on WIFOM? Everything could be WIFOM. So what WIFOM is 'valid' to you, and what WIFOM is 'invalid' to you? You can call anything WIFOM and I can demonstrate this quite easily if you doubt me. So what makes the possibility here be WIFOM to you worth invoking that name?

The point I am making here is that if nothing can be ruled out, where do you draw the line?

Is Impossibear a pun vig? That is a possibility; by your logic, davesaz, we should be suspecting that.

The PLAN might have been for Impossibear to die, and scum!Jungle is then functionally a loud fruit vendor at very little risk.

When did JUNGLE claim the power? Was it on D1? This is something I don't know.

So feel free to correct me here, if JUNGLE announced his power on D1.

If JUNGLE didn't claim the power until D2, then this scenario you are outlining is impossible. The plan going awry? Well then JUNGLE simply has no need to claim the action.

You never responded to this.

Not claiming it loses the possibility of using it at all.

Yes, and if the power is pro-town and JUNGLE is pun...why is this a bad thing for the pun?

You never responded to this.

Having a competent mod design a quest with that degree of complexity and then allowing it to fail on a technicality when the intent was clear stretches credibility a little.

Counterpoint: this is a game moderated by GuyInFreezer. I know his modding well enough to know this is

precisely

the sort of stunt he would pull.

You never argued with this.

But that is very short sighted, to excuse it as human error and not a possible gambit.

No, that is called following occam's razor with a dosage of hanlon's razor:
Not attributing to malice what can best be explained far more simply with stupidity.
The simple answer is stupidity.
The complex answer requiring contrived justifications is malice based on some possible gambit.

You never responded to this, which is a key part of the JUNGLE defense.

If we look at Jungle

outside the quest info

, what would the read be?

If we look at JUNGLE outside of the quest info, the read would be solidly nulltown; there is nothing indicating pun and yet minor signs indicating town.

You never responded to this.

I've mentioned this before in other games, but I haven't been keeping solid track on who I've seen as scum and who I haven't. So I don't know if I have seen Nero lurk as scum.
I can say conclusively that the argumentative and pushy Nero that I've seen as town was not present in this game. And Projectmatt's posting hasn't struck me as town.

I would be willing to accept a Projectmatt lynch if necessary, but would prefer that we resolve Jungle. If we allow scum!Jungle to push another fruitless outlandish quest on town it might damage us beyond repair. Am I wrong to think it's within the mod's range to include something tantalizing as a way to punish a greedy town? In the unlikely event Jungle is really town, it would be bad to lose the potential upside, but I can't see the game being designed so that town needs the quest to win. Furthermore if Jungle is town and the quest is powerful, why would scum leave the quest giver alive?

"I'm not going to lynch pun #1 in spite of acknowledging the evidence against him".

Regarding Maria, I know we can count on RC to have invited another member to the neighborhood. We can hope that at least one of them is town. If the neighborhood generates a track result on someone who visits, it yields two conf or a town/scum dipole. I think we wait on her to see what results there are, if any.

"I'm not going to lynch pun #2 on the basis of role-related reasons; we should wait for her to produce conftown in spite of me having just said we should not allow JUNGLE to produce results". (Hello, hypocrite.)

I know you're IC and all, but nice job on Wraith there. I never did get the explanation that I wanted on that. IC's wanting to lynch obvtown is sadly a thing.

This is the absolute most pro-pun thing a player can do to a person that is conftown; he is attempting to discredit Kaede's push/content now off of Kaede's push yesterday when

Kaede wasn't even the main pusher of the Wraith lynch

.

I feel perhaps my snark weakens the strength of my point. So to reiterate,

If we allow scum!Jungle to push another fruitless outlandish quest on town it might damage us beyond repair. Am I wrong to think it's within the mod's range to include something tantalizing as a way to punish a greedy town? In the unlikely event Jungle is really town, it would be bad to lose the potential upside, but I can't see the game being designed so that town needs the quest to win. Furthermore if Jungle is town and the quest is powerful, why would scum leave the quest giver alive?

Regarding Maria, I know we can count on RC to have invited another member to the neighborhood. We can hope that at least one of them is town. If the neighborhood generates a track result on someone who visits, it yields two conf or a town/scum dipole. I think we wait on her to see what results there are, if any.

What differentiates these two, davesaz?

You are saying to lynch Jungle on the possibility his role may damage us; you are willing to sacrifice the utility of his ability.

You are saying to not lynch Maria on the possibility her role may help us; you are not willing to sacrifice the utility of her ability.

Care to offer an explanation?

You have said you'd vote projectmatt

yet your vote is still not on him

. You have said to spare MariaR off of role reasons and yet to not spare JUNGLE off of role reasons

yet not differentiated between the two

.

@Kaede -- quote anything from Jungle that doesn't involve the quest that is obviously town. Anything that is making the slightest effort to solve the game.

Innocent until proven guilty; the burden of proof is on the accuser.

@dave: quote anything from JUNGLE that doesn't involve the quest that is obviously pun. Anything that is making the slightest effort to manipulate the town.

You've not provided this.

Scum lie and because they lie sometimes the unlikely answer is the correct one.

Scum can also be caught in those lies and yet you are adamant we not offer a chance for this to happen. If you're so sure JUNGLE is lying, then why not wait for it to be proven?

You never answered this.

I am well within my rights to call your responses a dodge, because you have dodged all of this to answer a mere fraction of my actual argument.

[Punreader]

hm
I'm actually not sure how to take that claim

At absolute best that's a nullclaim.

In all probability it is a punclaim.

Want to know why Nero didn't act?

Because Nero did act.

He was around all of N1.
Nero does not forget to submit night actions.
I have known him long enough to know that

he would policy lynch anyone claiming to have forgotten to submit their night action

.

[Punreader]

Punreader: I want your thoughts on these deductions at your next convenience.

If you think people are being cleared for mechanical reasons, sorry to disappoint. My read on wilky is play-based, not role-based; my read on Impossibear may be influenced by role but still has a basis in play; I am punreading matt, davesaz, and MariaR in spite of the role-based reasons to let them go; I have a play-based townread on REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE which gets stronger by the day; I have a lock-solid townread on OnTheMark separate from role-based reasons, revolving around play; Alchemist21 was already a strong townread without taking role into account.

Did I miss any roles?

Because if you want me to go over the play-based reasons for those townreads and punreads I can do so again.

[davesaz]

This comes from the first 20 pages. davesaz claimed miller; wilky counterclaimed miller. wilky was able to provide flavor, justification, and had more to his role; davesaz was dodgy and elusive at providing any details behind his role. I thought that was null because if he retracted/altered the claim later, that'd explain the behavior just as well. Him having maintained the claim offers him no such justification.

I have claimed a paraphrase of exactly what is in my PM.

Oh? And where do you draw the line on WIFOM? Everything could be WIFOM. So what WIFOM is 'valid' to you, and what WIFOM is 'invalid' to you? You can call anything WIFOM and I can demonstrate this quite easily if you doubt me. So what makes the possibility here be WIFOM to you worth invoking that name?

The point I am making here is that if nothing can be ruled out, where do you draw the line?

Is Impossibear a pun vig? That is a possibility; by your logic, davesaz, we should be suspecting that.
[/quote]
It would be more accurate to state that Impossibear could be scum claiming to be vig. By their play they are town. Jungle is not town by play.

The PLAN might have been for Impossibear to die, and scum!Jungle is then functionally a loud fruit vendor at very little risk.

When did JUNGLE claim the power? Was it on D1? This is something I don't know.

So feel free to correct me here, if JUNGLE announced his power on D1.

If JUNGLE didn't claim the power until D2, then this scenario you are outlining is impossible. The plan going awry? Well then JUNGLE simply has no need to claim the action.

You never responded to this.

Let me lay it out in steps for people who can't follow simple logic.
Scum Jungle has a fruit vendor.
Jungle targets Impossibear

expecting Impossibear to die and planning to claim the loud on D2

Impossibear dies.
Now Jungle cannot target someone else N2 to claim it on D3, without claiming

something

on D2.
Jungle makes up a complicated quest to explain the fruit vendor. Impossibear says they have not been told what the quest does. Wild goose chase ensues.

Not claiming it loses the possibility of using it at all.

Yes, and if the power is pro-town and JUNGLE is pun...why is this a bad thing for the pun?

You never responded to this.

I am asserting that there is no power, it's merely a loud fruit vendor.
Even if it is a pro-town power with Jungle as scum, it is bad for town to lynch town today instead of scum Jungle.

Having a competent mod design a quest with that degree of complexity and then allowing it to fail on a technicality when the intent was clear stretches credibility a little.

Counterpoint: this is a game moderated by GuyInFreezer. I know his modding well enough to know this is

precisely

the sort of stunt he would pull.

You never argued with this.

My argument is that GiF is the type of mod who would give us a scum fruit vendor which announces as a quest and if scum manages to pull hijinks around it more power to them.

But that is very short sighted, to excuse it as human error and not a possible gambit.

No, that is called following occam's razor with a dosage of hanlon's razor:
Not attributing to malice what can best be explained far more simply with stupidity.
The simple answer is stupidity.

The complex answer requiring contrived justifications is malice based on some possible gambit.[/quote] You never responded to this, which is a key part of the JUNGLE defense.
The stupidity is town believing it. I'm not stupid, therefore the trick does not work on me.

If we look at Jungle

outside the quest info

, what would the read be?

If we look at JUNGLE outside of the quest info, the read would be solidly nulltown; there is nothing indicating pun and yet minor signs indicating town.

You never responded to this.

I explicitly read Jungle as scum regardless of the quest. If you persist in this I will be required to explicitly read you as an imbecile.

I've mentioned this before in other games, but I haven't been keeping solid track on who I've seen as scum and who I haven't. So I don't know if I have seen Nero lurk as scum.
I can say conclusively that the argumentative and pushy Nero that I've seen as town was not present in this game. And Projectmatt's posting hasn't struck me as town.

I would be willing to accept a Projectmatt lynch if necessary, but would prefer that we resolve Jungle. If we allow scum!Jungle to push another fruitless outlandish quest on town it might damage us beyond repair. Am I wrong to think it's within the mod's range to include something tantalizing as a way to punish a greedy town? In the unlikely event Jungle is really town, it would be bad to lose the potential upside, but I can't see the game being designed so that town needs the quest to win. Furthermore if Jungle is town and the quest is powerful, why would scum leave the quest giver alive?

"I'm not going to lynch pun #1 in spite of acknowledging the evidence against him".

Regarding Maria, I know we can count on RC to have invited another member to the neighborhood. We can hope that at least one of them is town. If the neighborhood generates a track result on someone who visits, it yields two conf or a town/scum dipole. I think we wait on her to see what results there are, if any.

"I'm not going to lynch pun #2 on the basis of role-related reasons; we should wait for her to produce conftown in spite of me having just said we should not allow JUNGLE to produce results". (Hello, hypocrite.)

I know you're IC and all, but nice job on Wraith there. I never did get the explanation that I wanted on that. IC's wanting to lynch obvtown is sadly a thing.

This is the absolute most pro-pun thing a player can do to a person that is conftown; he is attempting to discredit Kaede's push/content now off of Kaede's push yesterday when

Kaede wasn't even the main pusher of the Wraith lynch

.

I feel perhaps my snark weakens the strength of my point. So to reiterate,

If we allow scum!Jungle to push another fruitless outlandish quest on town it might damage us beyond repair. Am I wrong to think it's within the mod's range to include something tantalizing as a way to punish a greedy town? In the unlikely event Jungle is really town, it would be bad to lose the potential upside, but I can't see the game being designed so that town needs the quest to win. Furthermore if Jungle is town and the quest is powerful, why would scum leave the quest giver alive?

Regarding Maria, I know we can count on RC to have invited another member to the neighborhood. We can hope that at least one of them is town. If the neighborhood generates a track result on someone who visits, it yields two conf or a town/scum dipole. I think we wait on her to see what results there are, if any.

What differentiates these two, davesaz?

You are saying to lynch Jungle on the possibility his role may damage us; you are willing to sacrifice the utility of his ability.

You are saying to not lynch Maria on the possibility her role may help us; you are not willing to sacrifice the utility of her ability.

Care to offer an explanation?

You have said you'd vote projectmatt

yet your vote is still not on him

. You have said to spare MariaR off of role reasons and yet to not spare JUNGLE off of role reasons

yet not differentiated between the two

.

Between ProjectMatt and MariaR, I knew that I was in the hood and have a mechanical way to test her, therefore there is no universe in which she would be a priority prior to that test which doesn't include someone else having a guilty. Furthermore ProjectMatt claimed since then. You already know this answer.

@Kaede -- quote anything from Jungle that doesn't involve the quest that is obviously town. Anything that is making the slightest effort to solve the game.

Innocent until proven guilty; the burden of proof is on the accuser.

@dave: quote anything from JUNGLE that doesn't involve the quest that is obviously pun. Anything that is making the slightest effort to manipulate the town.

You've not provided this.

Scum lie and because they lie sometimes the unlikely answer is the correct one.

Scum can also be caught in those lies and yet you are adamant we not offer a chance for this to happen. If you're so sure JUNGLE is lying, then why not wait for it to be proven?

You never answered this.

I am well within my rights to call your responses a dodge, because you have dodged all of this to answer a mere fraction of my actual argument.

No I answered all of it and you failed to understand the answers.

[davesaz]

Punreader: I want your thoughts on these deductions at your next convenience.

If you think people are being cleared for mechanical reasons, sorry to disappoint. My read on wilky is play-based, not role-based; my read on Impossibear may be influenced by role but still has a basis in play; I am punreading matt, davesaz, and MariaR in spite of the role-based reasons to let them go; I have a play-based townread on REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE which gets stronger by the day; I have a lock-solid townread on OnTheMark separate from role-based reasons, revolving around play; Alchemist21 was already a strong townread without taking role into account.

Did I miss any roles?

Because if you want me to go over the play-based reasons for those townreads and punreads I can do so again.

I think you're town, but you're wrong on me and Jungle. You didn't state what your Wilky and Impossibear reads are so I don't know if those are wrong. OTM is very clearly town by play.

[OnTheMark]

Jungle wilky pun Alchemist sitting in a tree S-C-U-M-M-I-N-G

Put last things first and first things last and all things can be clear to see

[davesaz]

ugh, I pre-edited that and it still has quote fails.

[Kaede Akamatsu]

Uh im not punreader but:

My argument is that GiF is the type of mod who would give us a scum fruit vendor which announces as a quest and if scum manages to pull hijinks around it more power to them.

You explicitly stated that, the quest being allowed to fail for a technicallity detracts from it's credibility.
To which punreader responded, that such a thing is

exactly

what GIF would do with a role based on their experience.

This doesnt address that and is dodging the question.

[Kaede Akamatsu]

Also:

3.06

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE (2):

OnTheMark, davesaz

projectmatt (6):

Ramcius, Impossibear, punreader, MariaR, wilky, Kaede Akamatsu

Ramcius (2):

projectmatt, Dunnstral

davesaz (3):

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE, Kokichi Oma, Ankamius

Not Voting:

davesaz, Alchemist21

With

14

alive,

8

to lynch

Deadline: (expired on 2018-06-09 23:05:14)

You want to lynch JUNGLE on the grounds that they have had a mod confirmed quest given to impossibear and since the quest failed it cannot be proven.
You dont want to lynch MariaR on the grounds that she can be confirmed later based on whether a track fails or not.
But...
What about matt who's not even arguing a roleblock, redirect or anything, but just that their predecessor didnt submit an action.
Nero was around when N1 ended, as he was here enough to post a replace out request, i struggle to believe they would just let the night go without a night action even if they planned on being replaced later. They were also here during twilight. Do you seriously believe Nero forgot to submit an action, but dont believe Jungle messed up the quest?

[davesaz]

Uh im not punreader but:

My argument is that GiF is the type of mod who would give us a scum fruit vendor which announces as a quest and if scum manages to pull hijinks around it more power to them.

You explicitly stated that, the quest being allowed to fail for a technicallity detracts from it's credibility.
To which punreader responded, that such a thing is

exactly

what GIF would do with a role based on their experience.

This doesnt address that and is dodging the question.

OK fine if it's a town role then it's a mistake.
How is that the slightest bit relevant when I think it's a scum role to begin with?

[Kaede Akamatsu]

How is that the slightest bit relevant when I think it's a scum role to begin with?

It's relevant because the question is "is this the mod that would allow such a thing to happen" no "is the alignment of this player X because of what happened"

[davesaz]

Why does town Jungle use the quest on someone very likely to be NK'd?
Kaede and Ourobos should have been excluded from any possible target list.
Scum on the other hand want it to land on the NK, because if it really is a quest that helps town given by a scum player, eliminating the target of the quest is helpful to scum.

[Kaede Akamatsu]

Why does town Jungle use the quest on someone very likely to be NK'd?
Kaede and Ourobos should have been excluded from any possible target list.
Scum on the other hand want it to land on the NK, because if it really is a quest that helps town given by a scum player, eliminating the target of the quest is helpful to scum.

A quest giving permanent bulletproof should've been given to someone that's not likely to be NK'd? What kinda logic is that.