SUPP 2017 MAFIA: COMPLETE

[PenguinPower]

If it results in nuking Pun I’m happy.

You're that certain he's scum?

I'm certain that he half claimed, then admitted to lying about his claim, then added a N1 modifier after being asked to vig me.

Seems town to me.

[the worst]

There is a voice in the back of my head that kinda hates how PR claimed. the rest of their posting also feels pretty surface level and busyworky. anyone wanna talk to me about PR?

His reads list feels pretty fake, for reasons I've mentioned. He makes it seem like he's been tracking rankings very carefully (e.g. Vax moving from 6 to 4 to 5) yet his rankings don't correspond with the actual rankings so the whole thing seems pretty fake. Like, what's the point of tracking rankings to that degree of precision but using a meaningless spectrum of rankings instead of the correct one? Thoughts?

the spectrum doesn't bother me too much TBH allocating % weight to your reads then fitting them to the actual metric later is totally fine

I just feel like they're kinda reading.... Things. Not reading what people are actually thinking. it's a lot of time spent looking busy without applying tonnes of critical thinking to the game

[the worst]

I'm starting to think I want to give PP a decent score

[Punreader]

First order of business, I'm going to spend some time responding to the older content.

Vaxkiller: Vaxkiller also has gone on a rollercoaster in my reads, from a six to a four before I settled on five. To some extent, he Vaxes me; I don't have a reliable way of reading his contribution. However, some of his pushes, while containing some...questionable...reasoning, look like they are genuinely going in the right direction. Not a killer-strong read, but enough that I want to keep him in the game longer.

This "rollercoaster from a six to a four to a five" feels fake.

Do you want me to do a Post By Post Analysis of Vaxkiller to prove what I mean? I kid you not, I can and will do it to show

precisely

why he has gone up and down and all around on my reads list.

I also don't like how Pun's rankings -- 10, 8, 8, 8, 6, 6, 6, 5, 5, 5, 5, 4, 4, 3, 2, 2, 0 -- don't match up to the actual rankings -- 10, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 6, 5, 5, 4, 4, 3, 2, 1, 0, 0, 0 -- seems like a very unnatural way to think about the game if you're actually trying to sort reads into a meaningful rankings list.

Your mistake is in thinking it's a

rankings

list.

It is not.

It is a

reads

list. Strongest town, strong town, weak town, various shades of null, potential pun, slight pun, pun, STRONG pun, approximately.

Read it again with that understanding and you will have a much better handling on where I am coming from.

Screenplay: Screenplay's contribution this game on the other hand have been somewhat indicative of pun. He is also fairly lackluster, but the difference is I have the experience with him to know that if he were town he shouldn't be. None of his contributions in this game have been even remotely endearing, and yet I've seen plenty of content sending up red flags, as early as 106. 108 was hollow as well, with no purpose behind it. His reads such as in 177 are opposite what they should be, and he is someone who I respect as a punhunter. Being on vacation feels like more of an excuse than anything else; he is posting plenty, he is reading everything (both of these are self-evident if you look at his iso), and yet in spite of this he is doing virtually nothing.

I’m not sure who you are but this is bullshit. You have went way down on my list.

If it were bullshit as you say, then you'd be able to explain why it was bullshit. You're not as incompetent/lackluster as you are pretending to be.

I think their being stilted is pretty well excused by there being no votes. I think their progression towards and the way they claimed came off as town.

I very strongly do not think a lack of votes justifies being stilted. It is an excuse for slacking off, nothing more, especially given that the mod announced from the onset a willingness to track the votes even though they hold no weight. Check the timing for yourself. That is Errantparabola's first votecount; the precedence for voting had already been established.

PenguinPower's complaint was a full 194 posts later. Check the timestamps as well. Errantparabola's post 100 has no edit mark. That means it was not edited at a later date. That means it was made on Monday, June 4th; PenguinPower's post complaining was on Wednesday, June 6th. The moderator was

already providing a service that PenguinPower was complaining about a lack of

. His complaint was thus an excuse. Nothing more; the stilted nature of his entrance cannot be reasonably explained by it.

Furthermore, the progression of his claim is the opposite of town. He didn't immediately counter my claim. It was only when players began to show suspicion of his contributions to the game that he provided his claim. When that claim proved to make things worse rather than better, he fullclaimed. He knew he was getting in trouble, and was hoping the truth would make him look better.

This was one of the contributing factors in my decision to fullclaim. PenguinPower's claim progression was meant to protect him from being voted off N1...and if I didn't realclaim, he'd have gotten away with it because people like you were buying it.

[Punreader]

Er.
Slight correction.
Full 94 posts later.

[Srceenplay]

If it were bullshit as you say, then you'd be able to explain why it was bullshit. You're not as incompetent/lackluster as you are pretending to be.

That’s bull shit as well because you would know that I am incompetent at explaining.

[Punreader]

Meant to include this, but accidentally omitted it:

Vaxkiller: Vaxkiller also has gone on a rollercoaster in my reads, from a six to a four before I settled on five. To some extent, he Vaxes me; I don't have a reliable way of reading his contribution. However, some of his pushes, while containing some...questionable...reasoning, look like they are genuinely going in the right direction. Not a killer-strong read, but enough that I want to keep him in the game longer.

This "rollercoaster from a six to a four to a five" feels fake.

Workin my way backwards, but yeah this confuses me as well. I'm a roller coaster but i Vex him, I push some, but something i do are questionable.. I look genuine, but not a strong read. I mean it dont get more wishy washy than that.

Vaxkiller, I realize English is not your first language, but perhaps you should look up the idiomatic expression like a roller coaster.

"Wishy-washy" is

precisely the definition of the expression

.
Yes you have gone up, yes you have gone down. Yes, you have things I like, yes you have things I don't like. That is precisely what I said my read on you was: uncertain, varying, constantly changing and shifting.

[Punreader]

While I'm there, missed this on my first readthrough:

i want to say Pine is scum, but i'm finding it difficult to rationalize what scum Pine's plan is this game, at all.

I already outlined it. Pine's team this game has some reasonable distancing, but is largely playing the same game: lackluster posting, lurking, and not contributing much. Giving the bare minimum to pass by, not drawing attention. Letting the active posters duke it out in town V town fighting, and subtly supporting this from the background. Focusing on mechanics talk rather than punhunting, for cheap towncred while avoiding giving hard stances that are difficult to back out of.

Is this an original plan? Why no, no it isn't. Is it a "boring" plan? Why yes, yes it is; it is thoroughly uninspired. Why doesn't that disqualify it from being Pine's plan? Because Pine is incredibly pragmatic and opportunistic. If he sees an opening to use a strategy, it doesn't matter how boring/unoriginal it is. He'll use it anyway because a plan which is boring yet practical is a more surefire way to win the game. He doesn't need to make flashy maneuvers. Flashy maneuvers are Pine's desperation moves, when he is backed into a corner.

The most unorthodox part of Pine's pun stratagem lies in his nightkills, something we haven't witnessed yet. His dayplay is not something very creative as he has no need to shift gears from the plan he knows will work, until something (like a player who is on an alt that secretly has loads of experience with him he was unaware of) throws a wrench in the plan. And he doesn't even enact that until the last possible moment; if he thinks he can salvage his original plan, at every opportunity, he will.

I can cite Turn of Camn as the most fresh example of this; at every point he was adamantly against altering the plan to account for Ellibereth, until he was given no choice. You were there so you should know precisely what I am talking about. Pine's play is his textbook punplay this game. He hasn't shifted gears yet because he still holds hope his plan will work, so it's still on display for all to see.

[Punreader]

pun what did you think about me accidentally shitposting half your role lmao

I internally had a nice laugh, and

almost

went and posted, "you jest, but a role similar to that is likely in the game", but at the last second I decided it would potentially tip my hand well before I had intended to. (I was planning on claiming anyway circa D3.)

PR is Cheetory. It’s entirely possible he simply wins if he’s ever on top.

No, but my abilities bear relevancy to this, as I indicated earlier. The flavor for my role indicates that I am the absolute best.

My bulletproof ability is stadium status. I am bulletproof as long as the shooter is above me in standing.
My vig ability is spreading the word. If the ranking of a player I target is below me, I'll kill them.
My ranking manipulation ability is libel and slander. It modifies at least one number's vote weight.

The combination of vig/bp feels like third party but it's tough to say either way. Probably worth investigating.

Early on? Bad strategy. Do you agree that I am EITHER: 3p OR: town?
If so, then investigating me early-on instead of investigating for town/pun is detrimental.
I do think I should be investigated

mid-game

, after we have at least 3 pun dead, but not before then. You know I have a role and am not vanilla; you know I can kill, thus tracking/following me is a waste; you know I have a gun, so a gunsmith is a waste; you can reasonably infer my roleclaim is accurate, so a rolecop is a waste; the only investigative not a waste is a cop and a cop should be looking to nail pun, not 3p, early in the game.

He's leashed now that he's claimed, and in the event he's Town he'll either draw a RB every night or see some use, and both are beneficial. The sudden addition of a no N1 modifier is kind of weird, but actually makes a lot of sense given that we have an extra death today because of rankings.

No, the reason I can't kill N1 is altogether different and should be stupidly obvious.
Rankings are done

during

N1.
Rankings are assigned at the

end

of N1.

How can I kill someone ranked lower than me before we actually have rankings?
Obviously, the answer is I can't. My role PM doesn't

tell

me I can't; it is an obvious inference from the given game mechanic. (That won't stop me from trying, but I expect Errant to tell me it's not possible.)

As for being leashed?
If the majority of the people asking for me to be leashed are in the bottom half of my reads (and that is currently the case), I refuse.
If the majority of the people asking for me to be leashed are in the top half of my reads (which is not currently the case), I will do so provided two additional conditions:

Condition #2:

I will not shoot someone in the top half of my readslist. The first reason for this would be that, obviously, someone in the top half of my readslist is more likely to outrank me (and thus make me not vig them), making it stupid to try.
The second, and far more important (and frankly, obvious) reason I won't shoot someone in the top half of my readslist is that them being in the top half of my readslist means I am townreading them and no duh, I refuse to shoot a townread because

that would be deliberately shooting at someone I think is town

, which is gamethrowing.

Condition #3:

I will not limit my vig to a single name. It must be a pool of 3-5 players, no more no less. More than five isn't really much of a leash at all, now, is it? Yet less than 3 narrows it down too much. 3-5 is the butter zone of vig names. The reason for not limiting it to a single name is also obvious enough if you think it through. If the pun know the EXACT player I am going to vig, that gives them many methods of failure otherwise unavailable to them.

By manipulating their votes, they can ensure my target is ranked higher than me (causing me to not vig them).
By doctoring my target, they can ensure my target survives a vig.
By rolestopping my target, they can ensure my target survives a vig.
If my target has an activated defensive ability, e.g. activated commute, activated bulletproof, activated pgo, then telling them I am going to shoot them allows for them to use it.
By jailkeeping my target, they can ensure my target survives a vig.
By roleblocking me, they can ensure my target survives a vig.
By jailkeeping me, they can ensure my target survives a vig.
By busdriving my target, they can ensure I vig someone we don't want dead.

That's a lot of failure methods.

In contrast, by using the pool of 3-5 names, the pun are forced to guess.
By having 3-5 names, it is SIGNIFICANTLY harder for the pun to manipulate the pool and ensure my target is ranked higher than me.
By having 3-5 names, the pun cannot guess with accuracy who I will shoot, thus cannot doctor my kill, leading them to potentially waste it if limited, use it wrong, or not use it when needed if limited.
By having 3-5 names, the pun cannot guess with accuracy who I will shoot, thus cannot rolestop my kill, leading them to potentially waste it if limited, use it wrong, or not use it when needed if limited.
By having 3-5 names, the pun cannot guess with accuracy who I will shoot, thus cannot jailkeep my kill, leading them to potentially waste it if limited, use it wrong, or not use it when needed if limited.
By having 3-5 names, the pun cannot guess with accuracy who I will shoot, thus cannot know whether using their activated defensive abilities is necessary, leading them to potentially waste them and also potentially not use them when needed.
By having 3-5 names, the pun cannot guess with accuracy who I will shoot, thus cannot know whether roleblocking me is a good or bad idea.
By having 3-5 names, the pun cannot guess with accuracy who I will shoot, thus cannot know whether jailkeeping me is a good or bad idea.
By having 3-5 names, the pun cannot guess with accuracy who I will shoot, thus making a successful busdrive unlikely.

The downside to this is that I am in fact less accountable, my actions can run afoul of town protectives targeting in the pool (unlikely as that may be given that this would be a pun pool so protectives SHOULDN'T be targeting consensus punreads), and the consequences of the pun getting it

right

are higher (for instance, say the pun DO correctly guess my target and successfully busdrive; I am placed in the rather ugly situation where two incredibly town players die overnight and my target did not, something which is statistically speaking unlikely to have occurred), but overall a pool rather than a specific name gives a much greater shot at making shots be meaningful.

Pine is scummy on this page

Immensely so, and it is proof of the concept I am referring to.

He is shifting focus away from punhunting, and onto theory discussion. Theory discussion has the benefit of looking town and can offer him immediate towncred, while also distracting the town because theory discussion bears no ACTUAL alignment relevance.

[Punreader]

I'm certain that he half claimed, then admitted to lying about his claim, then added a N1 modifier after being asked to vig me.

This is a fine narrative but one which fails to live up to reality.

I indicated from the onset that I was not claiming fully. I said from the beginning that my bulletproof was not as strong as indicated. I said there was a second condition. I said I wasn't claiming fully. I said that if I claimed fully, it would make sense, but that it would be detrimental for me to have done so. I laid this all out at the beginning; I was quite clear about the nature of my claim.

When I claimed my actual role, I outlined the nature of it. I made no such claim about having that modifier. I stated that I couldn't vig N1, not that I had a modifier stating I can't vig, because my role PM doesn't indicate it at all; it is simply self-evident from the nature of the claim. My vig works off of ranking. I can't vig someone when we don't have a ranking. Ranking is done N1. Thus, I cannot vig N1.

[Pine]

Sup friend.

Still self-immolating I see.

You still suck at reading me.

[Punreader]

If it were bullshit as you say, then you'd be able to explain why it was bullshit. You're not as incompetent/lackluster as you are pretending to be.

That’s bull shit as well because you would know that I am incompetent at explaining.

No, you claim you are but you're not. You explain things better than you are pretending. Furthermore, you actually

try

to explain things. You don't leave things as empty statements; you still explain in spite of the "incompetence" at explaining.

I know this in part because I have a similar perspective as pun; I underestimate my own competency as town and pretend I am a worse town player than I actually am, and

this

is what I am saying you are doing. You are stating you are incompetent when I know for a fact you are not actually that incompetent. You likely have a self-perception you're not that incompetent, and thus as pun you "mute" your own competency.

Perhaps I am not explaining this as well as I should, but I feel my message gets across. There is a disconnect between the level of skill I have witnessed from you when you've been town, and the level of skill you are displaying in this game. That disconnect most likely originates from a perception of "I'm not a good town player, so I need to pretend I'm not a good player", leading to you as pun being less competent than you should be.

[Punreader]

If it were bullshit as you say, then you'd be able to explain why it was bullshit. You're not as incompetent/lackluster as you are pretending to be.

That’s bull shit as well because you would know that I am incompetent at explaining.

No, you claim you are but you're not. You explain things better than you are pretending. Furthermore, you actually

try

to explain things. You don't leave things as empty statements; you still explain in spite of the "incompetence" at explaining.

I know this in part because I have a similar perspective as pun; I underestimate my own competency as town and pretend I am a worse town player than I actually am, and

this

is what I am saying you are doing. You are stating you are incompetent when I know for a fact you are not actually that incompetent. You likely have a self-perception you're not that incompetent, and thus as pun you "mute" your own competency.

Perhaps I am not explaining this as well as I should, but I feel my message gets across. There is a disconnect between the level of skill I have witnessed from you when you've been town, and the level of skill you are displaying in this game. That disconnect most likely originates from a perception of "I'm not a good town player, so I need to pretend I'm not a good player", leading to you as pun being less competent than you should be.

Another way of stating this:
I do not believe you're lying about thinking it's bullshit.
I do not believe you

think

you're lying about being incompetent.
I believe you fully

think

that you're incompetent as town.
But I believe that perception is flawed, and that you're

not actually incompetent as town in spite of believing you're incompetent as town

.
And

due to this flawed perception, as pun you act incompetently

.
Which introduces the disconnect.

[Vaxkiller]

Meant to include this, but accidentally omitted it:

Vaxkiller: Vaxkiller also has gone on a rollercoaster in my reads, from a six to a four before I settled on five. To some extent, he Vaxes me; I don't have a reliable way of reading his contribution. However, some of his pushes, while containing some...questionable...reasoning, look like they are genuinely going in the right direction. Not a killer-strong read, but enough that I want to keep him in the game longer.

This "rollercoaster from a six to a four to a five" feels fake.

Workin my way backwards, but yeah this confuses me as well. I'm a roller coaster but i Vex him, I push some, but something i do are questionable.. I look genuine, but not a strong read. I mean it dont get more wishy washy than that.

Vaxkiller, I realize English is not your first language, but perhaps you should look up the idiomatic expression like a roller coaster.

"Wishy-washy" is

precisely the definition of the expression

.
Yes you have gone up, yes you have gone down. Yes, you have things I like, yes you have things I don't like. That is precisely what I said my read on you was: uncertain, varying, constantly changing and shifting.

Dude, did you ride that new roller coaster?

Yeah, man, It was totally wishy washy.

[Vaxkiller]

Overheard at a theme park.

[Vaxkiller]

eh I feel like im headed down the wrong path due to apathy

[Vaxkiller]

Pine where you at here with scum/town

[Vaxkiller]

Your usually more opinionated... but i ... have missed some.

[Nahdia]

Holy crap are punreader's posts actually important or can I just like... do some skimming?

[Vaxkiller]

I thought i caught something because i was hyper focused on me, but i think they tell a tale of town now, not necessarily all correct tho

[Punreader]

Meant to include this, but accidentally omitted it:

Vaxkiller: Vaxkiller also has gone on a rollercoaster in my reads, from a six to a four before I settled on five. To some extent, he Vaxes me; I don't have a reliable way of reading his contribution. However, some of his pushes, while containing some...questionable...reasoning, look like they are genuinely going in the right direction. Not a killer-strong read, but enough that I want to keep him in the game longer.

This "rollercoaster from a six to a four to a five" feels fake.

Workin my way backwards, but yeah this confuses me as well. I'm a roller coaster but i Vex him, I push some, but something i do are questionable.. I look genuine, but not a strong read. I mean it dont get more wishy washy than that.

Vaxkiller, I realize English is not your first language, but perhaps you should look up the idiomatic expression like a roller coaster.

"Wishy-washy" is

precisely the definition of the expression

.
Yes you have gone up, yes you have gone down. Yes, you have things I like, yes you have things I don't like. That is precisely what I said my read on you was: uncertain, varying, constantly changing and shifting.

Dude, did you ride that new roller coaster?
Yeah, man, It was totally wishy washy.

roll·er coast·er
ˈˌrōlər ˈkōstər/Submit
noun
noun: rollercoaster

a thing that contains or goes through wild and unpredictable changes.

"a terrific roller coaster of a book"

Wishy Washy
Someone who can't make up there mind. Says they will do something, then don't...Or gives an opinion about how they feel and changes it later.
He said he wanted to break up with his girlfriend. Then the next day he didn't want to break up with his girlfriend. He is so wishy washy.

Literally, not figuratively, LITERALLY the same.
Wild, unpredictable changes, rollercoaster.
Someone who can't make up their mind, wishy washy.
What, pray tell, would you describe wild unpredictable changes as being when they come from a person? Indicative that the person is indecisive and can't make up their mind.
What, pray tell, would you describe the actions of someone who can't make up their mind? Wild and unpredictable, changing often.

They are synonymous.

[Punreader]

Holy crap are punreader's posts actually important or can I just like... do some skimming?

They are actually important if you

1. Want to have any understanding of my role
   
2. Want to have an understanding of my stances
   
3. Want to actually win the game potentially as early as D2

But I suppose if that doesn't interest you, then no, they aren't.

Your usually more opinionated... but i ... have missed some.

Yes, precisely. Pine as town is usually more opinionated. He came in to this game as a replacement (displaying a clear desire to PLAY the game because he wouldn't have offered to replace in otherwise), and yet in spite of that you can count the number of stances he's taken on a single hand.

There is good reason he is my strongest punread.

[Punreader]

Holy crap are punreader's posts actually important or can I just like... do some skimming?

They are actually important if you

1. Want to have any understanding of my role
   
2. Want to have an understanding of my stances
   
3. Want to actually win the game potentially as early as D2

But I suppose if that doesn't interest you, then no, they aren't.

I'll make it easy and do three separate posts, one for each point, behind a spoiler tag as to not literally double my iso length. Here, lemme show you.

[Vaxkiller]

Ok here is where you are wrong. Just becuase you hear CHARLIE you think they are the same, but look these two:

Wishy Washy:


a thing that contains or goes through wild and unpredictable changes:

[Nahdia]

Nahdia, other than Dunn, who would you peg as scum?

i'm not liking TBG but honestly i know i'm a pretty reactive player so that mgiht just because he's basically called me a village idiot and im salty.

btw i did look over punreader's claim. we should give them high ratings for the simple reason that if they are town, scum will feel obligated to kill them.

i feel like scum is lurking pretty hard rn.