Fallout Mafia - Commonwealth Edition (Day 8)

[Kaede Akamatsu]

In reality is more common to say that at least 1 scum was doing something different than their teammates.

[Punreader]

Pun’s VCA assumes scum are all doing the same thing. “If 2, why not 3” was used more than once and it’s based on a flawed assumption imo.

And this is a terrible misrep of the VCA. I used it precisely twice; there were far more points than that I raised in the VCA.

????
Sorry but alchemist's point is a very fair one, the points where you said "if 2, why not 3" fit your theory of davesaz and/or alchemist scum, when in reality when do scum ever all do the same thing in regards to voting.

Alchemist is using

one point

I made twice in the VCA to dismiss

all of

the VCA as flawed.

That is what I mean by him making a terrible misrep of the VCA.

I could go into the theory of all-town lynches and why they do happen on occasion and why I felt that this was particularly likely to be the case (in fact, I can cite none other than RadiantCowbells from this very game for why the Wraith wagon in particular was likely to be all-town), if I were in a more argumentative mood and wanted to defend that point in the VCA.

But while I could do that, that's not my issue. Alchemist21 wrote off the VCA as invalid because of that one point I used twice, when the VCA used far more than that one point.

[Ankamius]

imagine you have a scumteam of three players

one of which is a good scum player and is a sinking ship because of it on top of his predecessor's play
one of which is a claimed investigative and is also a sinking ship, also with general suspicion that there's an investigative that is scum due to setup
one of which has a pseudo-guilty and is a sinking ship

the second is put into a spot where they're very likely to be confscum
the first is unlikely to make it more than a couple days

now

assuming that davesaz is confirmed joining the neighborhood, then there's a choice

1. try to clear both davesaz and mariar
2. sacrifice mariar to clear davesaz

here's the issue

mariar is far more likely to be caught than davesaz due to the setup.
punreader is competent at setup spec, which was

proven

on day two by dead town.
punreader cannot be directly killed.

therefore, it's risky to try to clear mariar to the end of the game.

NOW

if

davesaz

is solo cleared

then his role by itself isn't scum-indicative by itself
the pseudo-guilty is vague enough to not be scum-indicative by itself
it's a lot easier to accept one mostly-scumread slot being cleared than two
it's a lot less weird that one 'conftown' reaches lylo than two

it makes sense if you really think about it

[Kaede Akamatsu]

I think my brain just short circuited.

[davesaz]

No amount of fake "evidence" is going to change the fact that I'm town.

VOTE: punreader

This is scum making a valiant last ditch effort to mislynch someone, anyone.

[Kaede Akamatsu]

As for Jungle, well he's an alt, so "hasnt logged in since X" doesn't mean anything if said alt isnt in any other games, he could be reading this game from his main for all we know.

[Ankamius]

That being said Ank, if you're scum you're in the same dilemma where you need to survive on your own until LyLo and disrupting potential correct town blocs forming is one way to do it.
OTOH, if you're town it makes sense for you to not want scum to be in a potential town bloc and wanna cover all your bases.

I think this day's gonna turn out more interesting than I thought.

the time to disrupt correct town blocs was 2 or 3 days ago

not now

Then what's your path to autowin?

kaede

I'm not good at executing scumplans, but I'm also well aware of how disgustingly powerful all-town townblocks are (look at Necromancer mini theme, that game was a near guaranteed town win on day two because of the bloc)

if my scumteam was going down, I'd be looking to solidify my position somewhere sooner rather than later

waiting three entire day phases after the rest of my scumteam goes down and THEN trying to disrupt the townblock doesn't work

[Punreader]

This is scum making a valiant last ditch effort to mislynch someone, anyone.

Your post sure is!

[Kaede Akamatsu]

No amount of fake "evidence" is going to change the fact that I'm town.

VOTE: punreader

This is scum making a valiant last ditch effort to mislynch someone, anyone.

If punreader is scum he's made a valuable contribution to the annihilation of his entire team.
He's not being lynched today (albeit not never)

[Ankamius]

Assume for a moment that davesaz is town, you need to ensure we eventually lynch scum by avoiding lynching town.

you're town
wilky is town
punreader is town (I know who pun is and I know enough about how they play to be able to state confidently that they don't have the reads they do here as scum, I'd rather not go further into this if I don't absolutely have to)

yt looks a lot better (the question to him was a test, he reacted the way I would've expected town to)
alchemist21 is a stale townread

realmen idk, the confidentish townread on me really bugs me because this game is within my scumrange
kokichi idk, I don't even remember why I was townreading that slot anymore
dunnstral idk, all I remember about this slot is that I could see it being scum with Vent back on day one

davesaz is strong scum

[Ankamius]

did I mention that my case for davesaz doesn't work if there's five scum

if not, there you go, it's mentioned

[Ankamius]

No amount of fake "evidence" is going to change the fact that I'm town.

VOTE: punreader

This is scum making a valiant last ditch effort to mislynch someone, anyone.

VOTE: davesaz

[Kaede Akamatsu]

I dunno I think i've done a decent job trying to figure out who's scum, but.
Seems like pretty much everyone disagrees to some extent, dunnstral doesnt want me leading, and everyone is in a rampage.

It's really tiring.

[Ankamius]

idk

the main issue for me is that other than you, all the loud voices are dead

and that leaves everyone else, who had like no presence the past few days

[Ankamius]

and me, I have a lot of posts for someone who did nothing all game

[Kaede Akamatsu]

I mean there can at best be 1-2 scum remaining.
People dont want to cooperate with conf town by helping me figure out stuff.

Most of the "But what ifs" is like "BECAUSE IM RIGHT", that's the feel I get, and it's getting tiring, im starting to think this isnt worth the effort at this point.

[Ankamius]

do you want me to go into more detail on why pun is town

[davesaz]

VOTE: Ankamius

[Kaede Akamatsu]

not why pun is town, more why dave is scum. Why is alchemist scum, why is literally anybody scum.

Why should i trust pun's VCA even if he's town.
Why should i trust your theory of dave being scum.
Why should i trust dunn's scumread of alchemist.

I feel like the more you guys try to push me to vote somewhere the less trust i have on you.
And that my comments have fallen on deaf ears only to push everyone's individual agendas.
Of course everyone wants to be right, but all I care about is solving this fricking game.

[Kaede Akamatsu]

There's no town cohesion here, I have failed to lead anyone anywhere, im just a joke of an IC.
Maybe RC's right and the only way to make people listen is to strongarm a lynch the way he does.

[Ankamius]

well, technically davesaz basically scumclaimed, I just didn't mention that since I know that's not exactly convincing coming from me in this game

[Ankamius]

alright let's brainstorm then

where are your reads currently at?

[davesaz]

well, technically davesaz basically scumclaimed, I just didn't mention that since I know that's not exactly convincing coming from me in this game

Umm, no I'm claiming conftown.
WTF are you talking about?

[davesaz]

Of course everyone wants to be right, but all I care about is solving this fricking game.

If you want help solving, you need to tell these yammerheads to shut up about there even being the slightest possibility of me being scum.

[Ankamius]

your scumclaiming

like I said