Mini Normal 2012: Tropical Mafia [Endgame]

[Judge Joseph Dredd]

Judge Joseph Dredd replaces Jodaxq.

Can I protest this username?

No, you can't. In fact, I am the real JJD and you're just immitating

[Judge Joseph Dredd]

Anyone want to give me the tl;dr? Any important events/claims .. etc?

[Judge Joseph Dredd]

BBT claimed Loyal Fruit Vendor and claims to have given Shoshin fruit which Shoshin says she didn't receive.

So Shoshin is guilty or BBT got blocked. Which is more likely? Has BBT been solidly present on D1?

[Judge Joseph Dredd]

I wasn't very active D1 since it ended fairly quickly. He was pretty loud about pushing TheRampage which ended up flipping town iirc.

That's not too conclusive. I guess I'll have to ISO the slot first. Thanks for the help though

[Judge Joseph Dredd]

BBT claimed Loyal Fruit Vendor and claims to have given Shoshin fruit which Shoshin says she didn't receive.

So Shoshin is guilty or BBT got blocked.

try again

Are you suggesting BBT is bad enough to fake a role than can easily be identified as fake?

[Judge Joseph Dredd]

@BBT: Why vote someone else other than your "guilty" when you acknowledge having been blocked was "highly unlikely"?

[Judge Joseph Dredd]

Dredd. Read 920.

Will do

[Judge Joseph Dredd]

I'm like 95% sure that Shoshin is flipping scum here though.

Invisibilities posting around his lynch makes me think he is town.

VOTE: Invisibility

LOL. That's bloody messed up indeed! So, he has a guilty through his own action but is using someone else's posting to force a reversal on his read from 95% scum to town??

VOTE: BBT

P-edit: @BBT: What good are night actions then? You could -at least- try to figure out what happened, but you're ignoring the whole thing.

[Judge Joseph Dredd]

At least we know BBT/Shoshin can't be scum together.

[Judge Joseph Dredd]

At least we know BBT/Shoshin can't be scum together.

It's actually very possible. My going theory right now is bbt invis shosh

Why would BB fake claim something and his partner is the one to out him??

OK.. walk me through your theory like it's my first game ever. How does that go?

[Judge Joseph Dredd]

Judge, take a look at Invisibility.

The think is if BBT flips "Loyal Fruit Vendor" you're almost conf!Scum. If he flips Scum you're almost conf!Town (that's me before I see what JarJar has to say). Invis' flip doesn't confirm any of you one way or the other (and especially so if invis flips green)

[Judge Joseph Dredd]

Why would BB fake claim something and his partner is the one to out him??

tbf Shoshin is hard defending BBT, and is pushing hard that scum blocked him. I could see a world where both are scum.

OK, but wouldn't they have been better off if they just acknowledged receipt?

Wait! So the argument is one fakes a Town role and the other denies receipt but still defends them, so if Shoshin flips Scum BBT would be clear in our eyes. Yes? Well, BBT would still have to deliver flowers to someone else tonight. How do they go from there? (That's entertaining the idea both are scum together).

[Judge Joseph Dredd]

Phone posting so just gonna give a TLDR version till I get to a computer.

2 leading wagons are scum invis and scum shoshin so scum BBT makes this crazy play cuz scum is getting lynched anyway.

I see.

OK, let's try again. 2 scums are being wagoned, so the 3rd is trying to clear one of them, but things go bad?? I think I saw something on the OP that says scum have day talk though (yes. And it's through an encryptor). OK, so BBT tries to save the encryptor, only the encryptor doesn't react the way they're supposed to. Still doesn't make much sense to me..

OK.. checked the joining dates and it seems BBT is the only one to be considered experienced.

Not totally opposed to your theory, but not gonna treat it as a golden rule yet.

[Judge Joseph Dredd]

also BBT is probs getting NK'd if his roleclaim was correct
but this post was a trick to confuse the mafia

Why would they kill him if they can RB him and keep him as a possible mislynch (that's me entertaining the idea he IS Town to begin with)

[Judge Joseph Dredd]

JJD is coming out with some of the craziest shit I have ever seen.

You can't use JJD anymore, my friend. It's either JarJar or Dredd now

[Judge Joseph Dredd]

Fine

VOTE: Invis

From my own PoV, if this flips Scum both BBT and Shoshin are less likely scum, but according to JarJar all 3 could be scum (so it doesn't mater which of them we lynch).

[Judge Joseph Dredd]

im flipping town btw

Assuming you're not bluffing/trolling, so you have any last words/reads to share?

[Judge Joseph Dredd]

VOTE: Shoshin

I can't argue against that even if I wanted to.

That's L-1, btw.

[Judge Joseph Dredd]

I wouldn't have claimed, and I'm not positive it's correct now, but want to make sure everyone has a chance.

1- If that was the case, not claiming could have directly resulted in BBT's lynch.
2- Even assuming he was jailed on N1, why would the JK decide not to protect him last night when he was a claimed PR?

I will wait and see if there are any claims today, but I very much doubt there will be any. If BBT was blocked on N1 it was more likely a scum RB (but that does open the door for Shoshin being town here, so we've been pushing 3 town wagons?)

[Judge Joseph Dredd]

JJD's my only town read at this point, based on the absurdity of his theories. I don't think scum would have been pushing a lynch on BBT.

I don't think I've said anything absurd, but I'm willing to listen if you want to elaborate.

[Judge Joseph Dredd]

I mean Jar, actually.

Oh! The JJD always gets me.

Judge, is there some reason I shouldn't be town reading you? lol...

I dunno. You tell me. Do you have anything to discuss with me specifically?

[Judge Joseph Dredd]

Have you read the game in light of the flips? Who do you think is scum/town and why?

I only reread when we have scum flips. Otherwise I just play from the point I replace in.

P.S. Town flips don't help me much because some scum will push the mislynch and others oppose it. Town also will push it if they think it's on scum or oppose it if they think it's town. Result: Nothing there to distinguish the behaviour of a townie who genuinely believed the wagon was on scum from scum who knew they were pushing town.

[Judge Joseph Dredd]

Let me see.. I'm voting you .. so I must think you're scum. Why? Because I don't see the town pushing 3 different wagons all on town. It is much more often in that situation that one of them is indeed scum.

Another reason I SR you is you were on TheRampage at first, then unvoted when the wagon started to take of, then hammered. I always suspect someone who unvotes as a wagon gains momentum to be scum either jumping off a townie or a scum p. The difference is they usually come back later to the townie wagon.

Finally, your voting patterns on D2 were also suspicious. You voted-parked on mumble, then switched to Gustavo (both semi-vanity wagons) before you changed to Invisibility. I'd be at least one of them is your p.

In short, I think it's you, Mumble and Gustavo.

But this discussion gave me the enthusiasm to also consider the case if you flip town however unlikely that may seem to me, so I guess I will have to do some ISOing after all. Stay tuned.

[Judge Joseph Dredd]

I've just ISO'd TheRampage and it's leading me to believe both Shoshin and Mumble are more likely scum still.

From Garuga's ISO fitz is emerging as a likely suspect too, but not likely with Gustavo, so for now it's Shoshin+Mumble+Gustavo/fitz

[Judge Joseph Dredd]

Nothing conclusive in bacy's ISO.

Invis is mostly posting one liners. :/

BBT was a bit sus of Shoshin/Mumble, and it partially explains the kill. I mean, if SCUM blocked him on N1 they sure could have done it again on N2, so why shoot him?

1- Shoshin is town and blocking BBT = confirming he was blocked on N1
OR
2- Shoshin is scum with Mumbles and BBT had to go because he would support a lynch on one or the other, and they can always blame it on being a shot on a PR regardless.

[Judge Joseph Dredd]

Mumble's ISO gives me pause. I don't think that's how he'd talk to/about Shoshin id they were scum together

texcat's ISO joins bacy's and Invis'. All three probably need to be reread in context rather than as separate ISOs

Going on a limb to say fitz might actually be town too. This is harder than I thought it would be. This is why I don't read when I replace in unless there is a scum flip.

Not gonna ISO JarJar. That's a big ass ISO and I'm starting to get bored already. He's town though.

Havo's ISO can join the trio if tex/bacy/Invis

[Judge Joseph Dredd]

I'm going to be a bit daring here and assume Shoshin/Mumble was TvT
I think JarJar and fitz are also town

So the 3 scums are in bacy/tex/Havi/Gustavo

We can afford one more mislynch, so if we lynch one of them and they flip Town then lynch the other 3 in sequence for the win. (That's of course assuming I have perfect reads on the other 4).

UNVOTE:

[Judge Joseph Dredd]

Why do you have Mumble/Fitz as town?

I think fitz' ISO is his town game.

Mumble appears o be of the same alignment as you, and I was thinking both scum, but the way he went about you doesn't feels like you are scum together, so I put you two as town who are having a town quarrel.

[Judge Joseph Dredd]

Not exactly perfect reasoning, I know, but that's the best I could do from what I have right now.

[Judge Joseph Dredd]

Why would BBT give a fruit to bacy?

Obviously the way he played it was to confirm his TRs over hunting for scum in his "not sure" reads. *Shrug*

The thing is -as bacy herself pointed out- there's no way to confirm it. Yet if we use Occam's razor it's more likely she's telling the truth because it would be risky for scum to fake that knowing they could be CC'd.

Can anybody see a texcat/Havo/Gustavo as the precise scum team?

[Judge Joseph Dredd]

BBT claimed Loyal Fruit Vendor and claims to have given Shoshin fruit which Shoshin says she didn't receive.

So Shoshin is guilty or BBT got blocked. Which is more likely? Has BBT been solidly present on D1?

Doesn't even consider that BBT could be scum.

Did I really not say anything? Maybe I had the conversation in my head and not in thread?

Scum!BBT faking a guilty through a fruit vendor role is ridiculous. HE WOULD HAVE HAD TO PROVE HIS ROLE THE NEXT NIGHT OR GET LYNCHED.

So, it the ONLY way BBT could have been scum is WITH SHOSHIN. Now why would SHOSHIN DENY RECEIVING FRUIT in that situation? It implicated at least one of the two. No too bright a move either.

However, Shoshin could be scum with Town!BBT. Either that or BBT GOT ROLEBLOCKED.

If you can't go threw this very simple logic then I don't know what to say to you.

[Judge Joseph Dredd]

then why did u vote for BBT shortly after? Was my case that convincing ?

You do have a way of stating your cases, yes.

[Judge Joseph Dredd]

Is it time for a mass claim?

This is blatant PR hunting IMHO.

[Judge Joseph Dredd]

Is it time for a mass claim?

This is blatant PR hunting IMHO.

Uh.... dude, it’s most likely LYLO.

So?? If we lynch scum today they still get to shoot the remaining PR(s) id any, and then tomorrow is still LyLo and w/o any new info.

[Judge Joseph Dredd]

@Mumble: Let's talk about a hypothetical world where you and I are confirmed townies. Who are the 3 scums?

[Judge Joseph Dredd]

Not sure about fitz here, but I agree on the former 2

[Judge Joseph Dredd]

I would rather tex first though. Tex > Havo >> Gustavo is my current lynch order

[Judge Joseph Dredd]

Not sure about fitz here, but I agree on the former 2

why are you not sure about fitz? are you townreading him?

Nit a strong read, but yes. This is likely his town play.

[Judge Joseph Dredd]

if someone has any info they should definitely come out with it but otherwise meh doesn't help us much now that I think about it really

Fuck me! Alright. I probably should have let it run and see if there was a Doctor. Otherwise; I'm dead meat and you guys have a mountain to climb, but here goes:

I'm a parity cop. The way my role works is I submit ONE TARGET every night, and I get told if this target is aligned with the

directly previous

target or not (that's close enough paraphrasing without actually quoting, I think).

Anyway, Jodax targeted Mumble. Obviously this alone means nothing because there's no previous target.

Then I took over and after what happened in D2 I decided Shoshin was a good check. They came back as aligned with Mumble. (Check my posts of the previous day where I believe I strongly hinted that they were of the same alignment, so if Shoshin had flipped red I would have known Mumble is too).

Last night I targeted texcat, and she is

not aligned

with the previous target (Shoshin).

That's why I've been trying to push for her lynch today, but I was also hoping I won't have to out which would have given me a good chance to get another result (I don't think any sane scum would have shot me here, and especially not over Mumble whom I now know is town).

So, if there's a Doctor out there they should be on me tonight so I can deliver another result.. or maybe they should protect Mumble and we take our chances. I mean, obviously don't say who you'd be protecting. Let's keep the scum team on their toes.

If there is no Doctor though... GOOD LUCK!

VOTE: texcat

[Judge Joseph Dredd]

Oh, God! Looks like we lost already. God help you, Mumble. You'll need much more than just luck to nail the other 2 scums.

[Judge Joseph Dredd]

Oh, God! Looks like we lost already.

God help you, Mumble. You'll need much more than just luck to nail the other 2 scums.

nothing really that significant has happened between your claim and that post here, what made you say

that?

The fact that "nothing really that significant has happened"?? Nobody even posted, let alone discussed the situation. I'd be alright being interrogated some, but nobody even bothered.

Anyway, I'm here.. ask away

[Judge Joseph Dredd]

Gus can claim first if he's still on.

[Judge Joseph Dredd]

Or maybe fitz?

[Judge Joseph Dredd]

Personally I'm not even sure why we're massclaiming. It tells scum whether there is or there isn't a protective for certain. I'd rather keep them guessing.

[Judge Joseph Dredd]

ROFL. 24 hours and we have one new post?? OMG! *Sigh*

[Judge Joseph Dredd]

Someone's trolling in twilight!

[Judge Joseph Dredd]

I also don't think that JJD's claim as a role would be possible under the new normal guidelines

Elaborate??

[Judge Joseph Dredd]

Well, CONGRATULATIONS to Havo & Gus. You did quite well and the NIGHT KILLS in particular were all PERFECT.

GG all. (and special apologies to texcat, but you were definitely the weakest link for me to exploit. SORRY!)

P-edit: I was also a bit lucky he didn't JK my slot at all. My slot made 2 kills AND I claimed 3 successful night actions.

[Judge Joseph Dredd]

@NSG: Please confirm having read the last PM from me. Thanks

[Judge Joseph Dredd]

I do it all the time! I mean, I actually lie more as town than I do as scum!

[Judge Joseph Dredd]

Why tho?

Definitely

not

"for the fun if it". I lie when I deem needed. For example, I once faked PGO as the Town Vig, because I obviously didn't want to get shot early by scum.

[Judge Joseph Dredd]

Well, I got lucky with that. Next time I'll PM a Zoraster before I fake claim

[Judge Joseph Dredd]

@tex: I did. Check the scum pt. I told my p's we needed to prepare for a fake guilty on D4 after we lynch Shoshin on D3 (that was before Shoshin was lynched). I mean, if I'm gonna fake claim I should at least consider my options beforehand (yet I failed to check the whitelisted roles still).