Micro 810: lovers mafia BTMPWTMAATSGATAPSIAWT [game over]

[Mathdino]

I would like the scumteam to be nicorobin and not_mafia

[Mathdino]

Hey xyzzy I'm confirming here that I'm town

Scum is probably actually nico and Not_Mafia

[Mathdino]

Fine, I confirmed
Not_Mafia is lurking and is probably scum

[Mathdino]

Wat
She placed one vote what are you talking about

[Mathdino]

VOTE: NicoRobin
Come at me
Also any hammers before page 5 are scumclaims for the record

[Mathdino]

I can post more if you'd like
I'm waiting for everyone to get reads out

[Mathdino]

Xyzzy is a meme of a mod and is actually likely to just make nico and Not_Mafia the scumteam

In the meantime I'm just waiting for someone to do something worthy of being my token townread

Why exactly did you vote/scumread me when you did

[Mathdino]

VOTE: NicoRobin
Come at me
Also any hammers before page 5 are scumclaims for the record

preference for nico

[Mathdino]

UNVOTE:

ok i really need a townread

[Mathdino]

i already know pine isn't gonna like this

w/e i'll take the 70%

NicoRobin
Ausuka
Not_Mafia
RedFlavor
Pine

Original Roll String: 1d5

1 5-Sided Dice: (3) = 3

[Mathdino]

I only won that because I had good buddies D:

downplaying her own scumgame

Also xy has seen ausuka scum very recently and it's nothing impressive for sure. I think they would want to see Pine's scumgame in action due to his reputation. Just a theory but the best I have so...

Pedit: hi Pine! Aren't you at l3 now? I don't think there's a substantial threat of quickhammer from that?

some kind of dumb mod meta defence

One vote in RVS is not a "quickwagon" and voting someone in a Micro on page 1 is definitely not scummy. I don't get why you think it is.

Tempted to take NM on his offer.

toe-dipping

VOTE: Not_Mafia

and then wagoning whoever

Meh.
VOTE: nicorobin

once again, wagoning whoever

ausuka is just shopping for a viable lynch

VOTE: Ausuka
sheep me

[Mathdino]

it's specifically legal for the set of lovers mafia games

lovers mafia is broken by randomness 60% of the time

in other words, lynching randomly produces a higher town EV than the actual town winrate for this setup and setups like it

so really i was just watching people run around hoping to PoE one townread out of the list so i could RNG it

[Mathdino]

i probably would've waited a bit if i randed on redflavor, i wanted to PoE him out but he didn't answer my questions for some reason

anyway yeah lovers mafia is a meme of a game and RNGing it is part of the meme

check marathon weekend, in which every single time i rolled the dice and town lynched the dice roll, town won
this includes the time where i was scum and rolled the 20% chance that it would land on my partner

[Mathdino]

and 70% just means that if you know one person is town (aka me) town has a 70% EV using provable randomness

given that no one is strongly townreading ausuka, i don't see any reason to resist this lynch

if anyone (mostly talking to ausuka) has any strong townreads to remove from tomorrow's roll (OBLIGATORY "IF TOMORROW EVEN COMES"), lemme know

[Mathdino]

why are you on redflavor

[Mathdino]

i have literally never lost as town by using randomness in this game

i have however lost as scum by trying to use randomness and lynching my partner
rip

those not sheeping me are scum

[Mathdino]

The person rolling the dice always has a 70% chance of winning by rolling the dice twice in a row. Regardless of their alignment.

I was hoping to get one townread to at least make you guys more comfortable with it. If I correctly bloc out one town (and leave myself out), town-me has a 83% chance of winning, while scum-me has only a 50% chance of winning (not odds I would take when I could just win conventionally).

I guess Red counts as that one townread? I wish he answered my questions :/

[Mathdino]

Mfw redflavor not onwagon

[Mathdino]

I'm not willing to compromise at all. Get the fuck in here and lynch Ausuka ffs.

[Mathdino]

Screw that. Compromise lynches are fundamentally non-random. The only way they can go through is if scum agree to be a part of it. Unless there's the rare situation in which all players available to compromise are town and somehow the lynch is on town.
In other words, in asking me to compromise on Nico, you're asking me to believe that the entire town is {Ausuka, N_M, Pine, Mathdino}.

No, if Nico is possible to lynch, that heavily indicates town to me.

Non-random lynches in this setup are HIGHLY likely to land on town because of that extra control scum have, given that they can just stonewall a lynch.

I want my random lynch. N_M not hammering is problematic as fuck.

[Mathdino]

I'm not willing to compromise at all. Get the fuck in here and lynch Ausuka ffs.

Kinda want to lynch Math for this. Unwillingness to compromise is not sitting well with me.

Also what's my motivation here exactly?

Do you think I hardbussed Nico and am now trying to get anyone other than her lynched?

Or do you think I'm scum knowing both Ausuka and Nico are town? Because in that situation the obvious thing is to just compromise today and be like "WHELP guys clearly ausuka is scum because that lynch didn't go through yesterday"

N_M, please get online.

[Mathdino]

Oh yeah the random thing

Random lynching is against the spirit of the game, we might as well just not play

Then read my case on Ausuka.

The fact that she hasn't been hammered yet is actually a significant scumtell.

[Mathdino]

N_M is either scum with Ausuka or confirmed town.

Tomorrow's roll won't include N_M.

[Mathdino]

Doesn't matter if we lose half a point if we still win in the end. If Ausuka is town and cares about the half point loss, the correct strategic move is for her to self-hammer (to also clear N_M as town).

If she doesn't, that serves as confirmation she's scum.

[Mathdino]

pine my RNG has a 70% chance of winning
given that N_M is confirmed town or scum with ausuka, that bumps it up to 80%

if we non-random lynch twice, i have about a 35% chance of winning
since nicorobin being lynchable almost certainly makes her town, that brings things down to around 20-25%

i'm comfortable sacrificing half a point for the additional 50+% chance to win the game

[Mathdino]

cool
and now ausuka not self-hammering is a scumclaim and thus a guaranteed win for us (just with +0.5 points only)

now that i think about it
it's possible N_M is scum trying to make the point loss happen :/

[Mathdino]

i agree with your reads but that team is inconsistent with pine trying to get me to compromise on nico

[Mathdino]

last page he wanted me to switch over to nicorobin with him so we could actually get a lynch

[Mathdino]

nico/red works yeah

i'm internally flip flopping on whether to go through with this tbh

[Mathdino]

i won't

VOTE: Nico

[Mathdino]

i learned from the best

[Mathdino]

Ausuka seemed townish

[Mathdino]

I have good townreads and bad scumreads
Mixing my townreads in is helpful

I also wanted to get a lynch through at all
And I was townreading Ausuka more than nico

My strategy would be easier if people were actually active

[Mathdino]

I don't completely abandon reads

I've often used randomness in conjunction with one or two townreads

If you're arguing with me on a theory level I consider my townreads decent enough to factor in

If you're arguing with my alignment, check my lovers mafia meta

[Mathdino]

Intent to vote pine

[Mathdino]

Nm given that we just had a crossvote, I'm not gonna defend my actions

You're clearly either town or scum with Ausuka

Fmpov other possible team is pine and red
I need red to show

[Mathdino]

Would you have preferred I just not hammer

You weren't around, man

[Mathdino]

Hey red are you online

[Mathdino]

VOTE: Pine
Confirm you're not hammering pls

[Mathdino]

I don't think scum red fakes the previous progression unless he's scum with and being coached by pine

[Mathdino]

UNVOTE:
Cool

[Mathdino]

So red
Pine and Ausuka crossvoting basically confirms one of them as scum
So the question is whether we can rule out one pairing between Pine, Not_Mafia, and Ausuka

When we rule out one pair, we lynch the 3rd

[Mathdino]

Then in that case Not_Mafia chose not to hammer because he wanted to see the deadline run out
We didn't have the votes for Ausuka

[Mathdino]

I'm town and not scum with Ausuka because I actually followed through with getting Ausuka as close to the lynch as I could
I left Ausuka at L-1 with Not_Mafia available to hammer and then tried to get him to hammer
I would've had no way of knowing that people would refuse to lynch her

[Mathdino]

What if N_M did not hammer because he is town and you are the mafia?

Under your PoE, my partner is Ausuka, the very person I was trying to pull a hammer on

He agreed with my case but disagreed with my methods on principle
That is not something that scum-me would predict

I think it's more likely he was holding out because he was scum
I keep forgetting the mechanic
Where if we fail to lynch, town loses half a point

[Mathdino]

Wait did you vote Ausuka because of RNG?

Yes

Had rng rolled you I'd have talked myself out of it though

Sometimes I reroll the dice when I don't like the result

[Mathdino]

If i rolled you and decided "nah ill roll again" would that confirm me as scum with you?

I could have just put a vote down and not cased her

The only reason Ausuka wasn't lynched is because you weren't online to help me
And because Not_Mafia refused to hammer

Do you think scum me bets the game on neither of you hammering?

[Mathdino]

I'm not willing to compromise at all. Get the fuck in here and lynch Ausuka ffs.

This was while she was at L-1

You regularly sheep me and Not_Mafia regularly lolhammers

I genuinely thought one of you would hammer

[Mathdino]

I think all 3 of nm, pine, and ausuka have their merits

I'm considering just rnging the 3 of them but meh 66% isn't amazing when I've already solved 1/4 of the game

[Mathdino]

Nm refusing to hammer his partner and then framing me as scum for not sticking to my guns there

Heavily implicates nm/ausuka

But pine could be framing that as the team as well

[Mathdino]

I was talking to Pine

Are you dumb too?

I think this rules out NM with both possible scumteams

NM does talk to his partners like this

[Mathdino]

Wait yeah pine left Ausuka at L-1 as well with Not_Mafia around, lol

VOTE: Not_Mafia

This is confirmed scum to me

[Mathdino]

Not hammering

[Mathdino]

Can someone get online and help me not hammer this please

Mfw we have 6 more games of this

[Mathdino]

OK cool

[Mathdino]

So I'm confirmed town and so is redflavor
Not_Mafias vote was a scumclaim

[Mathdino]

If i were scum with either of you you'd have voted already I think

[Mathdino]

Red, note that their not hammering means pine and ausuka can't be scum together, so from your pov Not_Mafia is literally confirmed scum

The town between Pine and ausuka will figure that out any minute now

[Mathdino]

Pine are you dense

Look at the vote counts

Ausuka and i would just quickhammer RedFlavor right now, we've had 2 opportunities

Are you blind to Not_Mafia literally confirming himself as scum

[Mathdino]

1 player voting for Ausuka (Pine)
1 player voting for Pine (Ausuka)
1 player voting for Not_Mafia (Mathdino)
1 player voting for RedFlavor (Not_Mafia)

Think for a second guys

I'm really disappointed in people not understanding lylo logic on this site

[Mathdino]

Correct, so it could theoretically by red/pine

But I hydrad with redflavor and I'm telling you there's no way he's scum this game

I've been 100% on him ever since hydraing

[Mathdino]

UNVOTE:

Lollllllll

[Mathdino]

That was definitely a self hammer

[Mathdino]

I mean from his perspective the only scumteam possible was redflavor/pine
So he should've just voted pine lmao

[Mathdino]

If red was scum this was literally his best scumgame yet so w/e

[Mathdino]

Ausuka and Math right?

Again are you dense
That scumteam would've hammered Red

[Mathdino]

I shouldn't have voted Miltank

I blame you significantly less than Not_Mafia gamethrowing rofl

I still think he was scum conceding

[Mathdino]

I fucking told you didn't i
It was a throw but he had no way out of that

[Mathdino]

Also this is the first time that randomness has failed me rip
Good thing I didn't fail myself

[Mathdino]

I think scum should be Pine and myself again

I was hoping you wouldn't say that

[Mathdino]

I feel like there's serious potential for town to win every iteration of this setup. Nico and Pine perhaps the hardest to read into but it's quite easy to PoE in this playerlist imo.

People are for some reason really bad at reading me

RedFlavor is the only easy read

[Mathdino]

You're correct of course
My playstyle is developed to pull easy townreads
The problem is people only see "Mathdino is confident and leads" which isn't AI for me at all, I've led in just as many scumgames as towngames

I know my tells and Elli knows my tells but few others do

[Mathdino]

Pine there was 0 way out
I wouldn't hold that against him
His only scumteam from his pov was you and red, so either way one of you gets lynched

[Mathdino]

Pine check the votecount
There were 3 scumteams possible

Red/Pine
Pine/NM
NM/Ausuka

I could've hammered town as scum with anyone else in the game

This is basic lylo logic
It's just like in jurassic park mafia

[Mathdino]

If you want to be upset about something be upset about him voting redflavor after I hammer tested red
Reds only possible partner was you, and Not_Mafia voted him anyway
That's what led to my confirmation

[Mathdino]

It's only risky if your reads are bad

I no longer explain all my reads
So that way my friends don't know how Im catching them

A lot of redflavor meta and analysis went into my decision to hammertest him on you
I still felt like you/red was possible which is why I didn't hammertest him on Ausuka

I've yet to lose by hammertesting in 5p tho

[Mathdino]

Also wait i only ever voted you and Not_Mafia
I voted nothing but scum this gameday

There was nothing you could take advantage of

[Mathdino]

Still town you fucks

[Mathdino]

So the first game showed us that xyzzy does not give people what they ask for

Meaning it's suboptimal to lynch Ausuka or Not_Mafia
And it's separately suboptimal to vote pine

VOTE: NicoRobin
Mod likely decided she wouldnt be lynched this time because we just mislynched her

[Mathdino]

not hammering

[Mathdino]

Dude the point is that there's a crossvote in lylo
Lack of a quickhammer confirms scum between the two
And confirms that I'm not scum with you

I literally did the exact same last game
Do you still not understand how lylos work

[Mathdino]

Like I'm saying that I'm online at the same time as you which means if we were scum we'd have hammered already

[Mathdino]

Pine do you not understand that we've just confirmed scum in nico and ausuka due to all 3 of us being online
Fuck your artificiality
This is basic fucking lylo
I'm not quickhammering with you
I'm not asking for towncred I'm confirming that I'm online

[Mathdino]

Again I used the exact same thing to scumfirm your partner just last game and you conceded
And now you're giving me shit for what you're aware wins games?

[Mathdino]

I don't know who your partner is but I'm saying that because red and pine and I didn't stage a quickhammer, one of you is scum

[Mathdino]

Red explain what was scummy about that post?

I have my own opinion but I wanna see yours

[Mathdino]

Nah I'm just as suspicious of nico as you guys are
Would've voted already but the fact that everyone is suspecting her is problematic

[Mathdino]

Come at me scumteam

I think it's almost certainly NicoRobin and Pine trying to frame me as the partner

Intent to vote Nico once redflavor is confirmed town

[Mathdino]

I genuinely don't get how someone could have been playing since 2011

And not understand crossvote logic in lylo

[Mathdino]

The way I see it
Pine Ausuka could easily just go all in on lynching nico instead of having to deal with me
Everyone agrees on nico lol

Pine is voting me because he has to
A vote on Ausuka right now would be a scumclaim

VOTE: NicoRobin
If I'm wrong this game is obviously not completely my fault

[Mathdino]

VOTE: Pine
Wait if people can be convinced let's just go with this
He voted outside the crossvote for no discernible reason

[Mathdino]

UNVOTE:

Meh I don't have a read on redflavor yet, outside chance of stupid town

Pine you're forgiven if you vote Nico

[Mathdino]

okay nico/ausuka are confirmed not the scumteam

redflavor/nico and redflavor/ausuka are also ruled out, they've both been online

redflavor is confirmed town

objectively, scumteam is
1. {Nico, Ausuka}
2. {Mathdino, Pine}

VOTE: Pine

ausuka, nico, thoughts on voting pine for voting outside the crossvote?

[Mathdino]

no, you prefer ausuka because ausuka is literally confirmed scum to you

pine is literally confirmed scum to me

one of the following must happen:
A. Nico or Ausuka compromises and votes between Pine/Mathdino
B. Pine or Mathdino compromises and votes between Nico/Ausuka
C. RedFlavor chooses who we lynch

Edit: you're online now, you could hammer me with your scumpartner if you wanted to

[Mathdino]

Come at me scumteam

I think it's almost certainly NicoRobin and Pine trying to frame me as the partner

Intent to vote Nico once redflavor is confirmed town

What happened to this btw? Why are you not voting nico?

I wanted to see whether I could get a lynch on pine at all
Since pine is literally confscum to me, there's no danger in having my vote here

Failing that I'm just lynching Nico

Again idk why pine would try to divert attention away from lynching town nico when everyone was willing to lynch there
Pine/nico scumteam

[Mathdino]

What
Do you not understand that you're confscum to me
I'm not talking about whether town you would do something, I'm trying to determine who your partner is by what scum you would do

[Mathdino]

Im gonna be voting unless
Nico, why I should not vote you?

So no chance of going for Pine?

I'm mainly just afraid of a Pine/Ausuka pairing here. Haven't quite ruled that out.

[Mathdino]

The bullshit Math is pushing is bad Townplay, and he’s done it now as both Town and scum.

when have you ever seen me use this kind of logic as scum

i've won every town lylo you've seen me in lol

[Mathdino]

i mean at this point either pine is super gambiting or is scum with ausuka as i suspected might be true

i was also scumreading nico most

but the point i'm making is that:
- if pine were town, he wouldn't have voted me outside the crossvote. he'd have just voted nico earlier.
- if pine were town, he wouldn't have been THIS fucking resistant to me trying to clear redflavor
- if pine were town, he wouldn't be voting me for literally doing the same thing i did last game. he's using the same fucking argument on me as when he was scum. he either doesn't get my argument or thinks other people won't, so he calls me scum for it.

pine knows i don't lie about strategy or mechanics as scum. we've talked about this on discord. and WE JUST TALKED ABOUT IT IN BETWEEN GAMES.

redflavor:

you've played against scum-me. you have to see that my play thus far has been legitimately pro-town in a way that pine's hasn't.

pine has taken a 50/50 risk between math/red and nico/ausuka TWICE.

if you think pine is town, that means you think that pine not only had

perfect

reads this game (when he is, as admitted, a significantly better scum player than he is town), but he also thought highly enough of himself to take that risk twice when he had a 25% chance of succeeding.

he took those "risks" because he knew he wouldn't lose. because he's scum.

[Mathdino]

red i feel like the way i phrased the above is confusing

so if you don't quite get it, i'd like you to tell me so i can re-explain it

if you do understand my point, and still feel like voting nico is the right call, i wouldn't blame you. i was going to vote nico had pine not voted me.
but i want you to actually understand the point before deciding.

my best argument for why you should resolve pine/math instead of nico/ausuka is this:
- nico consistently plays anti-town as town, and flakes out of a hilarious number of games (i'm not sure why her /in was accepted for this game). she doesn't really seem to give a shit.
- ausuka, despite shitting on pine's posts, has shown no effort to actually resolve pine/math.

ausuka

, if the team is actually pine/nico gambiting, you should put your money where your mouth is and vote pine. there's no way i'm scum this game.

[Mathdino]

eh ausuka has no motivation to do that smfh

the only lynch candidates today are pine and nico so ausuka has no reason to give a shit which are lynched

[Mathdino]

That's selfish tbh

You've flaked out of the majority of your games and then complained to anyone who would listen about me when I wouldn't let you join an almost all vanilla micro

[Mathdino]

Yet you voted me for "spewing bullshit"

You effectively decided you'd bet the game on a lylo policy lynch for logic that has beat your scumgame twice now

OK dude

[Mathdino]

And at this point, Math is just trying to lobby RF instead of actually engaging me.

Also, another nonsense thing - he's sarcastically talking about how I had "suspiciously perfect reads" this game, but ignoring the fact that I was wrongly on NM. He's flailing really hard to distract from a scummy partner.

PE: I'm not voting you on policy. Don't put words in my mouth AGAIN. I voted you because spewing bullshit is scummy.

Why would I engage you if we're confirmed scum to each other
How does that help anyone

[Mathdino]

And I don't think you're lying about mechanics, I think you're honestly wrong about strategy.

Again, you've pushed this bullshit L-2 clearing thing twice now, and at least the first time you were Town.

It just plain doesn't work the way you're talking about!

I'm not voting you on policy. Don't put words in my mouth AGAIN.

I voted you because spewing bullshit is scummy.

[Mathdino]

Red you're going to hammer town when pine and I are a much easier read
Please read my case

[Mathdino]

like this is pine's trajectory today:

- Get upset at me for ruling out scumteams

- Scumread Nico

- Vote me instead for using the same logic I used last game
(from his point of view, there was only a 50% chance he'd be right)

- Get upset at me for confirming Red as town

- Vote Nico because I was still trying to sort Nico/Ausuka
(from his point of view, this was another 50% chance he'd be right)

He took two 50/50 chances this game. A townie taking two 50/50 chances has a 75% chance of losing the game over it.

But the game isn't over. He knew he didn't have to be cautious about who he votes, because he's scum. His reads are not good enough to solve two 1v1s in a 5p LyLo. And he's not THAT confident in himself. He's said over Discord that he's only okay at town. As town, he wouldn't have been this reckless.

You've seen him as town. He's usually more logical (despite having inaccurate reads).

He's dangling a Nico lynch in front of you so you can just end this shitty day and get it over with. I wish Nico were voting Pine to equalize the two wagons, but she's not.

If you vote Pine, he'll be confirmed scum when Ausuka doesn't hammer. But you gotta read the game, man.

[Mathdino]

i just really feel like deciding on nico is the super low hanging fruit option this game

like yes, she deserves it, and i wish she would stop playing mafia this way
as scum with her, i would've told her to play differently and better, and might've written her posts for her
(remember how i wrote posts for you when we were scum together)

deciding between me/pine is more difficult and i'm afraid i'm not able to communicate this as well as i could because of a possible language barrier

[Mathdino]

You voted Nico, then immediately voted Pine because it was slightly better to you-- and then unvoted entirely.
You've hardpushed a Pine lynch while Pine has been willing to lynch Nico (and Nico has postured to vote Pine also)
You've acknowledged that Nicorobin the literally indefensible is scum but you've made every effort to get out of actually lynching her
You're acting like it's scummy to a) be able to recognize RF is town and b) be able to recognize Nico is scum. Both of those reads require significantly less skill than reading most players.

- Slightly better? Pine confirmed himself as scum by voting me.

- I hardpushed Pine after he became confscum to me -_-

- No, I acknowledged that I was going to vote her and blame the loss on her if wrong. She plays this way as town. She's awful at the game and pathologically doesn't give a shit.

- I know Red. He hadn't done much of anything alignment indicative at the time of voting. I wouldn't have been surprised if he quickhammered me. And Nico is known for getting mislynched constantly. There's been like no content this game.

[Mathdino]

Also ausuka gave more effort than nico in our game but she does not do anything even when she has the scumteam confirmed on her eyes if she town

Mathdino hardpushed Pine while I was asleep. Before then everything pointed to town coming together on Nico and winning.

Literally everyone in the game was scumreading Nico

No one has explained

1. Why i would argue nico is mathematically most likely to be scum on d1 when there's no chance of her towning her way out of that

2. Wtf I was planning to do when I was broadcasting that I'd vote Nico

[Mathdino]

Red, you should've talked to me

If I'm being honest I'm not really looking forward to 5 more games like this

[Mathdino]

Pine I've literally never been wrong about clearing someone in lylo so idk wtf you're talking about
I'm clearing scumteams first and then clearing people if there are no possible scumteams

[Mathdino]

The possible scumteams I've eliminated are specifically pairs of people who have been online together or who have had time to coordinate

My logic both games was perfect
My reads weren't but the logic was correct and idk why you insist on telling me that the way I play which has won lylos is something I've got to stop doing

The lylos I've lost are basically all because I had a bad read, not because I fucked a gambit or mechanical play

[Mathdino]

Xyzzy was too passive aggressive
Confirm town

[Mathdino]

My scum start this game was going to be to lynch Ausuka for winning btw

[Mathdino]

VOTE: NicoRobin

[Mathdino]

There’s probably at least one repeat scum

the non-scum (me and nico and red) are gonna have to be scum eventually so the 6th or 7th game isn't just an auto town win

since i'm town it's incredibly likely nico is scum

red is very readable, nico is very not considering she just doesn't play the game

[Mathdino]

that's literally my exact plan at this point

choosing to policy lynch nico beforehand is essentially equivalent to random lynching

i don't like playing like this

[Mathdino]

VOTE: NicoRobin

[Mathdino]

therefore if Pine is scum it must be with Mathdino which I find reasonable considering Mathdino hasn't done anything all game (not AI due to sitewide absence but there's nothing towny in there) and Pine was suggesting it was RF/NM like (I think) he does with both of the townies every game. Also Pine/Math is reasonable assuming xyzzy is literally just pairing Pine to everyone.

i policy lynched nico, which i find equivalent to random lynching

lemme review this game, if i can find one townread i'll roll for the 66% win